Author Topic: Global Recession?  (Read 16151 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 822
  • -Received: 534
  • Posts: 2713
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #90 on: June 10, 2022, 10:23:32 AM »
U.S. consumer sentiment plunges to RECORD LOW in June, UMich survey

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell sharply to a record low reading of 50.2, down from a May reading of 58.4. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected an June reading of 59.

The level is comparable to the low point reached in the middle of the 1980 recession, U Mich said.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-consumer-sentiment-plunges-to-record-low-in-june-umich-survey/

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 822
  • -Received: 534
  • Posts: 2713
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #91 on: June 13, 2022, 11:45:56 AM »
Consumer Sentiment is at the lowest ever recorded since they started collecting data in 1952
The prior low was at the end of the Carter presidency.


Offline morekaos

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 677
  • -Received: 613
  • Posts: 6506
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #92 on: June 21, 2022, 02:03:50 PM »
China is collapsing and you would never know it.....

There’s a run on Chinese banks and it’s being ignored by the world

In the anatomy of an economic crisis, a bank run is the point of no return.

Bank runs occur when people scramble to withdraw cash from banks in fear of collapse. In the worst cases, banks’ liquid cash reserves are exhausted, not everyone gets their money and the bank defaults.

It’s a grim scenario which, fortunately, has occurred rarely in history.

The most significant bank runs in the United States took place during the 1930’s Great Depression. More recently, there were runs on numerous U.S. banks during the Financial Crisis in 2008.

In Asia, bank runs have also been rare. A run on Japanese banks in 1927 led to the collapse of dozens of institutions across the country. There was a banking crisis in Myanmar in 2003 which the country has never really fully recovered from.

But perhaps since the Great Depression, none has been as significant compared to what is seemingly unfolding in China right now.

https://www.asiamarkets.com/chinese-banks-run/

Offline morekaos

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 677
  • -Received: 613
  • Posts: 6506
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #93 on: June 21, 2022, 02:09:11 PM »
So thats why they did that.... ;D ;D >:D

China’s bank run victims planned to protest. Then their Covid health codes turned red

Liu, a 39-year-old tech worker in Beijing, arrived in the central city of Zhengzhou on Sunday with all the boxes ticked to travel under China’s stringent Covid restrictions.

He had tested negative for Covid-19 the day before; his hotel had confirmed he could be checked in; and the health code on his phone app was green — meaning he had not been exposed to people or places deemed risks and was therefore free to travel.


But when Liu scanned a local QR code to exit the Zhengzhou train station, his health code came back red — a nightmare for any traveler in China, where freedom of movement is strictly dictated by a color-code system imposed by the government to control the spread of the virus.

Anyone with a red code — usually assigned to people infected with Covid or deemed by authorities to be at high risk of infection — immediately becomes persona non grata. They are banned from all public venues and transport, and are often subject to weeks of government quarantine.

https://kvia.com/news/2022/06/15/chinas-bank-run-victims-planned-to-protest-then-their-health-covid-codes-turned-red/

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 822
  • -Received: 534
  • Posts: 2713
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #94 on: June 23, 2022, 01:14:06 PM »
The Atlanta Fed is forecasting 0% GDP growth in Q2, down from a high of 2.5% forecast last month.


Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 822
  • -Received: 534
  • Posts: 2713
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #95 on: July 01, 2022, 04:40:37 PM »
Well, the new estimate is -2.1% GDP growth, down from 0% when I posted a week ago.  Yikes!


Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 822
  • -Received: 534
  • Posts: 2713
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #96 on: July 11, 2022, 12:47:49 PM »
Struggling consumers will prioritize paying mortgages over auto & credit card debt.

Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen.

Lucky Lopez is a car dealer who has been in the business for about 20 years. In recent meetings with bankers, where he bids on repossessed vehicles before they go to auction, he has noticed some common characteristics of the defaulted loans. Most of the loans on recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas origination dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard times at different times; loan-to-value ratios, or the amount financed relative to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%, versus a more normal 80%; and many of the loans were extended to buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic. Those monthly incomes fell—sometimes by half—as pandemic stimulus programs stopped, and now they look even worse on an inflation-adjusted basis and as the prices of basics in particular are climbing.

“The idea that the economy is strong? Anyone who is actually doing business sees things are not strong,” says Lopez. “We had a housing bubble in 2008, and now we have an auto bubble.”


https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-cars-bank-repos-51657316562

Offline morekaos

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 677
  • -Received: 613
  • Posts: 6506
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #97 on: July 12, 2022, 08:00:35 AM »
Things are not going well here and no one is looking...

China crushes mass protest by bank depositors demanding their life savings back

Hong Kong (CNN)Chinese authorities on Sunday violently dispersed a peaceful protest by hundreds of depositors, who sought in vain to demand their life savings back from banks that have run into a deepening cash crisis.

Since April, four rural banks in China's central Henan province have frozen millions of dollars worth of deposits, threatening the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of customers in an economy already battered by draconian Covid lockdowns.
Anguished depositors have staged several demonstrations in the city of Zhengzhou, the provincial capital of Henan, over the past two months, but their demands have invariably fallen on deaf ears.
On Sunday, more than 1,000 depositors from across China gathered outside the Zhengzhou branch of the country's central bank, the People's Bank of China, to launch their largest protest yet, more than half a dozen protesters told CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/10/china/china-henan-bank-depositors-protest-mic-intl-hnk/index.html
« Last Edit: July 12, 2022, 08:12:44 AM by morekaos »

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 822
  • -Received: 534
  • Posts: 2713
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #98 on: July 20, 2022, 12:48:43 PM »
Unlike the early stages of the 2008 recession, homebuilders are not drinking the Kool-aid this time.

We're Heading Into a Housing Recession: National Association of Home Builders' CEO


Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 822
  • -Received: 534
  • Posts: 2713
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #99 on: July 22, 2022, 09:31:19 AM »
A leading indicator of financial hardship to come...

AT&T shares fall after company says later payments, higher spending are hurting cash flow

AT&T said customers have been paying their bills about two days later than they did the same time last year. That alone affected about $1 billion in quarterly cash flow, the company said.

“There’s clearly some dynamics in the economy. We have customers that are stretching out their payments a little bit,” AT&T CEO John Stankey told CNBC. “We expect that they’re going to continue to pay their bills, but they’re taking longer to do it. That’s not atypical in an economic cycle.”[/size]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/21/att-shares-fall-after-company-says-overdue-bills-higher-spending-are-hurting-cash-flow.html

Offline sleepy5136

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 7
  • -Received: 60
  • Posts: 899
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #100 on: August 05, 2022, 03:16:43 PM »
Unemployement rate: 3.5%
Jobs added: 528k vs 250k expected. jobs lost in pandemic are fully recovered.
wages: up 5.2% vs 9% inflation rate

Employment will be the key indicator going forward to see where inflation goes. As long as people are employed, they will be able to stomach the price increases and demand for things like travel. Pushing prices potentially higher. Which is why I don't see inflation cooling down just yet. Expect Fed to raise more and interest rates to go up.

Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 397
  • -Received: 354
  • Posts: 2528
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #101 on: September 05, 2022, 12:23:15 PM »
Europe will have a Lehman moment of energy crisis similar to our 2008 financial crisis any day now. Ruskies is taking a page from our playbook and apply it where it hurt most in Europe, western countries. It will undoubtedly spread abroad and U.S will be the last man standing until further demand destruction taking ahold with the tightenning. Prepare your boats.

Offline someguy

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 90
  • -Received: 81
  • Posts: 277
  • I'm poor af
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #102 on: September 05, 2022, 01:50:54 PM »
Unemployement rate: 3.5%
Jobs added: 528k vs 250k expected. jobs lost in pandemic are fully recovered.
wages: up 5.2% vs 9% inflation rate

Employment will be the key indicator going forward to see where inflation goes. As long as people are employed, they will be able to stomach the price increases and demand for things like travel. Pushing prices potentially higher. Which is why I don't see inflation cooling down just yet. Expect Fed to raise more and interest rates to go up.

The headline employment numbers are coincident (current trend defining) economic data and tends to be a lagging indicator of the health of the economy.  Leading indicators tend to point better to where we'll be in the future.  There are additional economic measurements that can add color to the jobs picture  This explains it better than I can:  https://youtu.be/rMDt45ITv2w  TLDW high probability of economy wide job losses in 2023.

Somewhat related and interesting is this same content creators take on the current housing market: https://youtu.be/vLnX7GsoVDE

TLDW 2005 housing bubble tended to be concentrated in AZ, NV, CA, and FL.  Today's home price growth is more distributed across the states.  Today's national home price growth is higher than in the peak of the last bubble, but no state level home price growth today is exceeding the highest from the prior bubble.  Months' supply of new home inventory (a leading indicator) has risen dramatically (in the 10s), close to prior peak (12).  Pace of new homes sales today is down 50% vs PY.  Prior bubble was down 70% at max.  Today's Mortgage rates are up 2.7% vs PY.  In 2006, mortgage rates jumped 1.6% vs PY.  M2 growth (a measurement of liquidity) was excessive in 2020 and 2021 (likely the cause of the many broad based financial bubbles we're seeing today).  M2 growth is falling sharply today.  M2 growth was more controlled in the prior bubble and only briefly went negative.  Prior bubble's debt levels were concentrated in home loans.  Today's are in auto and student loans.  There's are many similarities and differences between today's bubble(s) and the 2005-2008 bubble.  The opinion is that it's probable we'll see a significant decline in housing prices, but it won't likely cause a global banking crisis like the prior one.

Offline sleepy5136

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 7
  • -Received: 60
  • Posts: 899
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #103 on: September 09, 2022, 04:49:07 PM »
Unemployement rate: 3.5%
Jobs added: 528k vs 250k expected. jobs lost in pandemic are fully recovered.
wages: up 5.2% vs 9% inflation rate

Employment will be the key indicator going forward to see where inflation goes. As long as people are employed, they will be able to stomach the price increases and demand for things like travel. Pushing prices potentially higher. Which is why I don't see inflation cooling down just yet. Expect Fed to raise more and interest rates to go up.

The headline employment numbers are coincident (current trend defining) economic data and tends to be a lagging indicator of the health of the economy.  Leading indicators tend to point better to where we'll be in the future.  There are additional economic measurements that can add color to the jobs picture  This explains it better than I can:  https://youtu.be/rMDt45ITv2w  TLDW high probability of economy wide job losses in 2023.

Somewhat related and interesting is this same content creators take on the current housing market: https://youtu.be/vLnX7GsoVDE

TLDW 2005 housing bubble tended to be concentrated in AZ, NV, CA, and FL.  Today's home price growth is more distributed across the states.  Today's national home price growth is higher than in the peak of the last bubble, but no state level home price growth today is exceeding the highest from the prior bubble.  Months' supply of new home inventory (a leading indicator) has risen dramatically (in the 10s), close to prior peak (12).  Pace of new homes sales today is down 50% vs PY.  Prior bubble was down 70% at max.  Today's Mortgage rates are up 2.7% vs PY.  In 2006, mortgage rates jumped 1.6% vs PY.  M2 growth (a measurement of liquidity) was excessive in 2020 and 2021 (likely the cause of the many broad based financial bubbles we're seeing today).  M2 growth is falling sharply today.  M2 growth was more controlled in the prior bubble and only briefly went negative.  Prior bubble's debt levels were concentrated in home loans.  Today's are in auto and student loans.  There's are many similarities and differences between today's bubble(s) and the 2005-2008 bubble.  The opinion is that it's probable we'll see a significant decline in housing prices, but it won't likely cause a global banking crisis like the prior one.
So as Jerome Powell says a "soft" landing? hahah

Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2802
  • -Received: 4115
  • Posts: 24127
  • 3CWG
Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #104 on: September 09, 2022, 07:03:26 PM »
Heard on the news today about LA restaurants wanting the outdoor dining permits to be extended.

Prior to Covid, they were doing $200k/mo, now... with outdoor dining... they are doing $800k-$1m/mo.

Food prices (both dining and grocery) are high.

Cars are still selling for above MSRP.

And while homes are way overpriced... the people who bought them got the lowest mortgage rates ever... so there won't be a panic sell off like the previous bubble.

Yes... things are "slowing" but how much will they slow without a black swan event? Covid was supposed to destroy the economy (or the lockdowns were) but the Dow is still above 30k, even BTC is still over 3x its low in 2020... and there is still a war going on... it's just crazy.

Time to cue the Megaflood (and Sharknado)! :)
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2022, SimplePortal