Author Topic: Global Recession?  (Read 14234 times)

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Offline lnc

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2014, 02:16:15 PM »
@Inc - previously you said, "deflation might not be a bad thing." I think it's the opposite.

Agree with you that deflation is bad for the overall economy.
 
The article I posted just provides a different view to look at things.  If you can maintain same level of income while everything else become cheaper, than its kind of like getting a raise and it's a chance to get ahead.   Your hard earn dollar can go farther and you can keep more of it. 

If one can just maintain same level of income during the deflation period, everything will be just fine.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2014, 02:20:59 PM »
Refugees drinking unfiltered water from the Los Angels and San Gabriel rivers & park lakes fall ill to dysentery die and return as zombies.
No apocalypse is complete without the zeds.

Pentagon document lays out zombie battle plan

"From responses to natural disasters to a catastrophic attack on the homeland, the U.S. military has a plan of action ready to go if either incident occurs.

It has also devised an elaborate plan should a zombie apocalypse befall the country, according to a Defense Department document obtained by CNN.

In an unclassified document titled "CONOP 8888," officials from U.S. Strategic Command used the specter of a planet-wide attack by the walking dead as a training template for how to plan for real-life, large-scale operations, emergencies and catastrophes"

Source:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/16/politics/pentagon-zombie-apocalypse/

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2022, 10:44:25 AM »
Remind me again... What happened to Irvine home prices in 1991?

Dallas Fed: Recession Is Unavoidable Without Russian Oil

The global economy likely won’t be able to avoid a recession without a resumption of Russian energy exports this year, according to a study by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas economists.

“If the bulk of Russian energy exports is off the market for the remainder of 2022, a global economic downturn seems unavoidable,” economists Lutz Kilian and Michael Plante wrote in an article posted by the Dallas Fed Tuesday. “This slowdown could be more protracted than that in 1991.”

The authors drew a parallel to the 1991 global recession, set off by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in the year prior that caused an oil-supply shock.




https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-22/recession-unavoidable-without-russian-oil-dallas-fed-study-says

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2022, 10:25:30 PM »
Remind me again... What happened to Irvine home prices in 1991?

Dallas Fed: Recession Is Unavoidable Without Russian Oil

The global economy likely won’t be able to avoid a recession without a resumption of Russian energy exports this year, according to a study by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas economists.

“If the bulk of Russian energy exports is off the market for the remainder of 2022, a global economic downturn seems unavoidable,” economists Lutz Kilian and Michael Plante wrote in an article posted by the Dallas Fed Tuesday. “This slowdown could be more protracted than that in 1991.”

The authors drew a parallel to the 1991 global recession, set off by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in the year prior that caused an oil-supply shock.




https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-22/recession-unavoidable-without-russian-oil-dallas-fed-study-says

Different world, but I'll say this...if Irvine goes down in price then all other cities around it will see bigger price declines just like we saw back in 2008-2010.
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Offline OCtoSV

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2022, 08:26:31 AM »
way different job market for OC now than 91 - still a land of mid market companies but more engineering and professional jobs. I don't see Irvine impacted nearly as much as the surrounding south OC communities.

Offline daedalus

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2022, 10:54:25 AM »
In 1991 we hadn't yet invented pergraniteel.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2022, 11:11:02 AM »
Different world, but I'll say this...if Irvine goes down in price then all other cities around it will see bigger price declines just like we saw back in 2008-2010.

That's quite possible, but only because Irvine has gone up more slowly than those other areas since bottoming out in 2010.  On the other hand, subprime / alt-A / excessive home ATM withdrawal will not be the catalysts this time, so it's perhaps not wise to assume things will behave just as they did 15 years ago.

The current conditions have similarities to both the 1980's downturn (out of control inflation and drastic Fed action) and the 1990's downturn (large supply of new homes in the pipeline, spike in oil prices, and reduced Congressional spending on the horizon).

The last time interest rates spiked this rapidly, Orange County went bankrupt (1994).  What unforeseen blow-ups await us this time?

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2022, 11:21:28 AM »
Even if it's a 30% correction, it's only wiping out the gains we've seen in the last 1 yr? Maybe 1.5-2 yrs? NBD honestly. Only people that will be impacted are ones that bought recently or have adjustable rate mortgages which is a significant amount of FCB with those no income checked loans in Irvine.

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2022, 02:17:22 PM »
Different world, but I'll say this...if Irvine goes down in price then all other cities around it will see bigger price declines just like we saw back in 2008-2010.

That's quite possible, but only because Irvine has gone up more slowly than those other areas since bottoming out in 2010.  On the other hand, subprime / alt-A / excessive home ATM withdrawal will not be the catalysts this time, so it's perhaps not wise to assume things will behave just as they did 15 years ago.

The current conditions have similarities to both the 1980's downturn (out of control inflation and drastic Fed action) and the 1990's downturn (large supply of new homes in the pipeline, spike in oil prices, and reduced Congressional spending on the horizon).

The last time interest rates spiked this rapidly, Orange County went bankrupt (1994).  What unforeseen blow-ups await us this time?

That could happen, but when the OC went BK, Greenie promptly lowered rates and housing went up up up. The OC didn't follow for some time, even dropping in 1994 because of the BK but went up as things improved.

If it were me and I was looking for a house to buy, I would prefer Irvine over outlying cities and I'm sure others would too. I'm not looking to buy in California though so there's that.

Liar Loan, you could be right but for now I just don't see the inventory build up in Irvine. When a small build up happens (maybe a dozen houses which is really very small) it quickly moves back down with houses being bought up.

I don't really see days on market rising either.

Housing demand for the most part is really a local event. What exactly is it you see in Irvine to cause you to think it's going to roll over soon?

Offline CalBears96

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2022, 02:31:56 PM »
Housing demand for the most part is really a local event. What exactly is it you see in Irvine to cause you to think it's going to roll over soon?

He hasn't seen anything. He just refuses to admit he's wrong. Simple as that.

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #25 on: March 23, 2022, 02:40:48 PM »
Housing demand for the most part is really a local event. What exactly is it you see in Irvine to cause you to think it's going to roll over soon?

He hasn't seen anything. He just refuses to admit he's wrong. Simple as that.

But he keeps posting so he must think there is something to back this up.

I like to see opposing views so I don't end up keep drinking kool aid and become too steadfast in my own views. I did that in 2000 and regretted it bigly.

But I have to have something to back those views up to make me see there is something there. Right now, I don't see it at all.

Mortgage rates going up is not enough of an issue for me. We had that in the 70s and housing just went up with rates. We had higher rates in the 80s and housing went up. We just got adjustable rate loans. We had rising rates in the 90s too and again we just got adjustable loans.

There should be SOMETHING that we can put a finger on like rising inventories, increasing days on market, comparable homes selling for lower price per square foot, builders not raising prices or throwing in upgrades on spec homes. SOMETHING. I just don't see anything myself, so Liar Loan, point it out if you have something specific to this area please.

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #26 on: March 23, 2022, 03:16:58 PM »
Housing demand for the most part is really a local event. What exactly is it you see in Irvine to cause you to think it's going to roll over soon?

He hasn't seen anything. He just refuses to admit he's wrong. Simple as that.

But he keeps posting so he must think there is something to back this up.

I like to see opposing views so I don't end up keep drinking kool aid and become too steadfast in my own views. I did that in 2000 and regretted it bigly.

But I have to have something to back those views up to make me see there is something there. Right now, I don't see it at all.

Mortgage rates going up is not enough of an issue for me. We had that in the 70s and housing just went up with rates. We had higher rates in the 80s and housing went up. We just got adjustable rate loans. We had rising rates in the 90s too and again we just got adjustable loans.

There should be SOMETHING that we can put a finger on like rising inventories, increasing days on market, comparable homes selling for lower price per square foot, builders not raising prices or throwing in upgrades on spec homes. SOMETHING. I just don't see anything myself, so Liar Loan, point it out if you have something specific to this area please.
I'm not sure how FCB was back in the 80s and 90s in Irvine. But I would think that it's now significantly higher and a bunch of them have adjustable loans. If interest rates hit 6-7%, that will definitely test the limits of these adjustable loan owners and what they will do to keep their house.

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #27 on: March 23, 2022, 04:28:59 PM »
Housing demand for the most part is really a local event. What exactly is it you see in Irvine to cause you to think it's going to roll over soon?

He hasn't seen anything. He just refuses to admit he's wrong. Simple as that.

But he keeps posting so he must think there is something to back this up.

I like to see opposing views so I don't end up keep drinking kool aid and become too steadfast in my own views. I did that in 2000 and regretted it bigly.

But I have to have something to back those views up to make me see there is something there. Right now, I don't see it at all.

Mortgage rates going up is not enough of an issue for me. We had that in the 70s and housing just went up with rates. We had higher rates in the 80s and housing went up. We just got adjustable rate loans. We had rising rates in the 90s too and again we just got adjustable loans.

There should be SOMETHING that we can put a finger on like rising inventories, increasing days on market, comparable homes selling for lower price per square foot, builders not raising prices or throwing in upgrades on spec homes. SOMETHING. I just don't see anything myself, so Liar Loan, point it out if you have something specific to this area please.
I'm not sure how FCB was back in the 80s and 90s in Irvine. But I would think that it's now significantly higher and a bunch of them have adjustable loans. If interest rates hit 6-7%, that will definitely test the limits of these adjustable loan owners and what they will do to keep their house.

How do you know they still have those adjustable loans?

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #28 on: March 23, 2022, 05:20:41 PM »
Housing demand for the most part is really a local event. What exactly is it you see in Irvine to cause you to think it's going to roll over soon?

He hasn't seen anything. He just refuses to admit he's wrong. Simple as that.

But he keeps posting so he must think there is something to back this up.

I like to see opposing views so I don't end up keep drinking kool aid and become too steadfast in my own views. I did that in 2000 and regretted it bigly.

But I have to have something to back those views up to make me see there is something there. Right now, I don't see it at all.

Mortgage rates going up is not enough of an issue for me. We had that in the 70s and housing just went up with rates. We had higher rates in the 80s and housing went up. We just got adjustable rate loans. We had rising rates in the 90s too and again we just got adjustable loans.

There should be SOMETHING that we can put a finger on like rising inventories, increasing days on market, comparable homes selling for lower price per square foot, builders not raising prices or throwing in upgrades on spec homes. SOMETHING. I just don't see anything myself, so Liar Loan, point it out if you have something specific to this area please.
I'm not sure how FCB was back in the 80s and 90s in Irvine. But I would think that it's now significantly higher and a bunch of them have adjustable loans. If interest rates hit 6-7%, that will definitely test the limits of these adjustable loan owners and what they will do to keep their house.

How do you know they still have those adjustable loans?
I have access to check the owner & loan info. So you'll see the loan details and when the mortgage is expected to be fully paid off. Most are expected to be paid off at year 2040+.

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Global Recession?
« Reply #29 on: March 23, 2022, 05:27:11 PM »
What if they HAD a mortgage but paid it off in full and have no new mortgage?

 

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