Poll

Assuming interest rates and conforming limits remain the same -- and new construction continues -- what is your best guess on pricing for the resale market?

Flat - no major change.
18 (30.5%)
Slight dip - revert back to spring 2013 levels.
7 (11.9%)
Measurable dip - revert back to fall/winter 2012 levels.
6 (10.2%)
Slight increase - 0-5% increase from today's levels.
22 (37.3%)
Measurable increase - 6-12% increase from today's levels.
6 (10.2%)

Total Members Voted: 57

Voting closed: February 22, 2014, 08:51:36 AM

Author Topic: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?  (Read 139350 times)

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Offline bones

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #30 on: October 28, 2013, 05:17:27 PM »
.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2014, 09:45:15 AM by WTTCMN »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #31 on: October 28, 2013, 05:18:10 PM »
I think less informed buyers will go with newer instead of weighing in everything like location, density, lot size, home size, home features, community, extra taxes etc.

Many buyers don't want to worry about resale, bidding, pre-existing conditions and prefer the "new home smell".

I know I love new homes... but I also prefer the older floorplans, no mello roos, and the location of the old hoods and not having to worry about extra costs like landscaping in the near future.

I'm def less informed.
Well... you're informed... you just like newer better. :)
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline FranchisePlr

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #32 on: October 28, 2013, 05:48:23 PM »
Colibri has got to be the worse of the 1800-2000 sq ft homes....talk about no backyard and being super close together, you can almost call them attached...

Offline 0$

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #33 on: October 28, 2013, 06:02:03 PM »
 :)
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 02:10:10 PM by OpenToTheSky »

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #34 on: October 28, 2013, 07:21:43 PM »
@Tyler:

Yep.

That's why I hate real estate.

No matter how much you rely on fundamentals, there is always some non-fundamentals going on that bites you.

Are we in a bubble now? What is driving it? No easy credit. Is it a low rate/high stock market bubble?

Confession: As much as I hate the fact that Willow Bend (and The Branches) is so overpriced and basically making money on "lack of" Mello Roos, at one point in time... I was seriously considering them. The Kool Aid is strong in Irvine.

That's because, even in Irvine, 90% of the housing product available isn't ultimately what people want, it's what they settle for.

People and families, really don't want attached product, zero lot lines, three stories stacked on top of the garage townhomes. That's what they take since that's what they can get.

Most of you are missing demand for supply.  House sell supply is a lot like the job market at the moment. The over-all number looks good, but when you dig into the details, you realize the 200K job gains are on 3.2 million new hires over 3.0 million people quitting their old job, where-as a healthy job market, a 200K net job growth is really 5 million 'new' hires on 4.8 million people quitting their old job.

FCBs are buyers, not sellers.  100% equity owners, they exist, but they're not the whole market, there's a big chunk of the supply that's move up, move over or move down.    Well the move up and move over is going to a fraction of it's healthy market level. That means the imbalance that creates very strong seller's market will remain.

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Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #35 on: October 29, 2013, 09:40:13 AM »
If they can go from their first place straight into the $1M+ range, then they are loving life  ;)

I don't know about that. I think they are still disappointed in what $1mm+ buys you in Irvine nowadays and how much they have to spend on upgrades to get an interior and exterior that feels like a million bucks.

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Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2013, 10:07:14 AM »
That part i agree on... what i was getting at is that its really difficult to go from your first place to a purchase in the $1M+ range.  That means the buyers would either have to have enough equity or savings to produce the down payment.  As well as cover the egregious tax bills!

Its really tough to do that as a younger buyer, since most folks income peaks during their 50's.

True. I had saved up over $200K by the time I was 25 but a lot of it was in 401Ks that would have been heavily taxed / penalized if I tried to use it for a downpayment.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2013, 10:22:45 AM »
True. I had saved up over $200K by the time I was 25...
Dang... paper boys make a lot in NC.
Quote
... but a lot of it was in 401Ks that would have been heavily taxed / penalized if I tried to use it for a downpayment.
You can loan it to yourself.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2013, 11:26:35 AM »
True. I had saved up over $200K by the time I was 25...
Dang... paper boys make a lot in NC.
Quote
... but a lot of it was in 401Ks that would have been heavily taxed / penalized if I tried to use it for a downpayment.
You can loan it to yourself.

I was good at poker in college.

Loans aren't a good idea since you have to pay them back in full immediately if you leave the job and some of my 401ks were from prior jobs.


Offline bones

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2013, 11:59:01 AM »
.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2014, 09:45:08 AM by WTTCMN »

Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2013, 01:42:46 PM »
Accurate.  I've talked to a lot of folks during my home search at phase releases, open houses, etc.  A lot of folks are moving up from the 1800 sf+ attached product to the 2500 sf+ SFR.  The smaller SFRs just don't offer enough space to justify the move/upgrade.  For me personally, I lived in a 2,200 sf attached condo.  Moving to something like a Mendocino in SG doesn't make much sense.  Sure I would get a driveway and have no attached walls, but ehhhh.

If I were to move in the area and not much had changed in my life I might look for a good SFR in foothill ranch or lake forest that was the same price as my detached Irvine condo but with no mello roos and a lower HOA. It sounds like a good swap but it's not for the following reasons:

A) Transaction costs when buying/selling will likely eat into 10% of the homes value
B) My property taxes would jump because I'm locked into the lower value with my current place which would nullify the mello roos savings
C) The new place would like need significant renovations

So I think I'll stay where I am for a few more years at a minimum.

Offline bones

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #41 on: October 29, 2013, 01:55:51 PM »
.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2014, 09:45:01 AM by WTTCMN »

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Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #42 on: October 29, 2013, 02:03:49 PM »
You forgot reasons D through Z: you would have to live in lake forest or foothill ranch.

True. My wife probably wouldn't like that. But I think that there are some neighborhoods in Lake Forest better than Portola Springs (and more centrally located and closer to work).

Offline bones

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2013, 02:06:26 PM »
.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2014, 09:44:57 AM by WTTCMN »

Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #44 on: October 29, 2013, 02:13:29 PM »
You forgot reasons D through Z: you would have to live in lake forest or foothill ranch.

True. My wife probably wouldn't like that. But I think that there are some neighborhoods in Lake Forest better than Portola Springs (and more centrally located and closer to work).

Maybe but you already voted with your wallet. Since you bought at the downturn, you could have snatched up a pretty sweet place in lake forest then for cheap. But instead you bought a detached condo with MR on no lot in irvine. Just saying :)

I had a different job at the time on the Tustin side of Irvine. Now I work on the Lake Forest side and would have likely bought a different place.

 

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