Poll

Assuming interest rates and conforming limits remain the same -- and new construction continues -- what is your best guess on pricing for the resale market?

Flat - no major change.
18 (30.5%)
Slight dip - revert back to spring 2013 levels.
7 (11.9%)
Measurable dip - revert back to fall/winter 2012 levels.
6 (10.2%)
Slight increase - 0-5% increase from today's levels.
22 (37.3%)
Measurable increase - 6-12% increase from today's levels.
6 (10.2%)

Total Members Voted: 57

Voting closed: February 22, 2014, 08:51:36 AM

Author Topic: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?  (Read 139352 times)

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Offline 0$

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Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« on: October 25, 2013, 09:51:36 AM »
 :D
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 12:42:44 PM by OpenToTheSky »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2013, 10:20:25 AM »
I think it might still rise from slightly to moderate partly because new builders will lend to that with price increases from phase to phase.
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Offline 0$

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2013, 11:39:25 AM »
 8)
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 12:00:56 PM by OpenToTheSky »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2013, 11:53:34 AM »
So demand will outpace the increased supply?
With resale inventory still in the 500s and new builders only releasing 6-12 homes per phase which don't move-in until 6 months later... I think demand will still be higher than supply.

I thought that when the Great Park opened, there would be tons of homes available but the only ones that can be bought for quick move-ins are the ones price at $1m+ in the less desirable floorplans.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline 0$

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2013, 12:09:11 PM »
 :P
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 01:52:48 PM by OpenToTheSky »

Offline bones

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2013, 12:20:26 PM »
Si/
« Last Edit: August 30, 2014, 06:54:48 PM by WTTCMN »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2013, 12:53:44 PM »
I thought that when the Great Park opened, there would be tons of homes available but the only ones that can be bought for quick move-ins are the ones price at $1m+ in the less desirable floorplans.

Two developments we visited at GP last weekend (Roundtree and Springhouse) had move-ins for November and December available. Some of the reservations that were reported must have fallen out.
I just called Springhouse to verify... nothing available. Roundtree might have something as a Plan 3 is listed on their website but that might not be updated.
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Offline OCgasman

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2013, 01:07:40 PM »
Higher than now. 

Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2013, 01:33:01 PM »
I expect that certain areas will have less supply than demand and will have price appreciation (Northpark, Woodbridge, Woodbury, Laguna Altura, Quail Hill, etc) but that the area I live (Portola Springs) will remain flat as so many new homes are built in the area that will keep demand for resales down.

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2013, 01:44:43 PM »
 :P
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 01:56:49 PM by OpenToTheSky »

Offline bones

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2013, 02:16:57 PM »
/
« Last Edit: August 30, 2014, 06:54:41 PM by WTTCMN »

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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2013, 02:25:47 PM »
Short of wider ranging job losses, I don't see any long term contraction in the market outside of seasonal fluctuations. 

In fact, even with new product entering, I continue to see highly constrained market that will continue to drive stiff competition and pricing for homes.

Counter to others, I think interest rate increases and price appreciation will actually exacerbate the problem initially continuing the 'priced in' phenomenon we've been experiencing.    Much like the downturn where the equity sellers wouldn't give it away and kept their house off market, they have been replaced with potential equity seller that now will not step up to the increased payments need to move to a better home.

A marginally better home (represented by a mere 10% difference in current home price to target home price) results in a 25% increase in PITA after rolling all acquired equity into the house. 

A noticeably better house (25% more expensive than their house's current value), represents a near 50% PITA increase and that's with nearly flat interest rates.

If interest rates rise, you'll see an even further contraction of owners not willing to sell.

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2013, 03:33:35 PM »
 :P
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 02:22:14 PM by OpenToTheSky »

Offline bones

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2013, 03:40:27 PM »
/
« Last Edit: August 30, 2014, 06:54:40 PM by WTTCMN »

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Offline 0$

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Re: Spring 2014 Pricing - Best Guess on the Resale Market?
« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2013, 04:15:04 PM »
 :o
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 12:20:18 PM by OpenToTheSky »

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