Author Topic: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers  (Read 1989008 times)

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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4065 on: September 19, 2022, 03:20:26 PM »
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4066 on: September 19, 2022, 05:36:08 PM »
This is an example of way overdoing it when it comes to rebuilding a home in a neighborhood...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Gillman-St-92612/home/4698841

I think they'll have a hard time getting over $3m for this home let along trying to get over $4m.  This one will sit.
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Offline bones

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4067 on: September 19, 2022, 07:04:29 PM »
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.

I don’t know what I’m more impressed by. The fact that you so boldly went on the record here or the fact that you know your mortality. Just super impressive.

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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4068 on: September 19, 2022, 07:48:01 PM »
This is an example of way overdoing it when it comes to rebuilding a home in a neighborhood...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Gillman-St-92612/home/4698841

I think they'll have a hard time getting over $3m for this home let along trying to get over $4m.  This one will sit.

This is what WTF price is, for sure. Only if rate crater back to sub 3 %, then,....maybe,,,,,maybe not. Yeah, we ain't gonna see that 3 % in my life time. Timing the market and rent for price to crater, might have to wait an aweful long time.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4069 on: September 19, 2022, 08:22:40 PM »
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.

Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4070 on: September 19, 2022, 08:32:41 PM »
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.

Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.

In that case, I want a bad-ass recession. Well, from what I hear, and following, we are in a recession. It need to get a lot more worse than now, to see the FED pivot. Can the FED pivot with all of what little credibility they have left?

Powell, is priced to raise at least 75 this Wednesday, I am rooting for 100.

Offline someguy

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4071 on: September 19, 2022, 09:03:43 PM »
The plan is to reduce upward price pressure by destroying demand via an actual recession induced by reducing the excessive post covid money supply with rate hikes and QT (the latter has been lackluster so far).  75bps Wednesday.  The Fed needs to be predictable.  As a political science major with a law degree, JP understands how foolish it would be to spook the economy as we head into the midterm elections in November. 

The trillion dollar questions are

How high will they raise rates?  Consensus currently gives 70% probability of peak overnight rates between 4.25% and 4.75%. 90% chance we hit 4% by end of year, perhaps one or two more 25bps hikes in early 2023.

How long will they keep rates there?  That's a broader probability and what the market is trying to figure out.  Perhaps some easing in Q4 2023.  Realistically the Fed doesn't even know.  Despite not knowing, the Fed has to play the game of convincing the market to follow their lead (see "creditability", which has been called into question with how wrong they got inflation).

How much job loss and money destruction does the Fed need to see in order to pivot?

Those questions will dictate how long and how severe the recession is.   They'll pivot eventually.  If not for saving jobs and wealth or due to a black swan event, then for political pressure from those who appoint them in the US government, debtor of $28.4T as of 2021 and payer of $400B in interest expense this FY, which will surely rise with increasing rates and continuing borrowing.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2022, 09:14:44 PM by someguy »

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Offline someguy

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4072 on: September 19, 2022, 09:08:32 PM »
.

Offline paydawg

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4073 on: September 20, 2022, 10:48:47 AM »
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.

Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.

In that case, I want a bad-ass recession. Well, from what I hear, and following, we are in a recession. It need to get a lot more worse than now, to see the FED pivot. Can the FED pivot with all of what little credibility they have left?

Powell, is priced to raise at least 75 this Wednesday, I am rooting for 100.

No more screwing around.  They need to raise it 100bps tomorrow.
Thanks in advance for the 'thanks'!!

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Offline someguy

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4074 on: September 20, 2022, 11:38:15 AM »
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.

Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.

In that case, I want a bad-ass recession. Well, from what I hear, and following, we are in a recession. It need to get a lot more worse than now, to see the FED pivot. Can the FED pivot with all of what little credibility they have left?

Powell, is priced to raise at least 75 this Wednesday, I am rooting for 100.

No more screwing around.  They need to raise it 100bps tomorrow.

People who bet money are currently assigning 84% probability to 75bps

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

The Fed already "surprised" the market once this year with a higher than expected rate hike.  There's less upside and more downside to doing it again.  There's no historical precedent for the Fed hiking the overnight rate 100bps in a single rate decision, so they would be leading into uncharted territory.

Their three tools are talking, manipulating the overnight rate, and outright buying selling bonds and securities (their balance sheet).  Excessive surprises erode the strength of their talking tool.

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4075 on: September 20, 2022, 11:40:21 AM »
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.

Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.

In that case, I want a bad-ass recession. Well, from what I hear, and following, we are in a recession. It need to get a lot more worse than now, to see the FED pivot. Can the FED pivot with all of what little credibility they have left?

Powell, is priced to raise at least 75 this Wednesday, I am rooting for 100.

No more screwing around.  They need to raise it 100bps tomorrow.

People who bet money are currently assigning 84% probability to 75bps

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

The Fed already "surprised" the market once this year with a higher than expected rate hike.  There's less upside and more downside to doing it again.  There's no historical precedent for the Fed hiking the overnight rate 100bps in a single rate decision, so they would be leading into uncharted territory.

Their three tools are talking, manipulating the overnight rate, and outright buying selling bonds and securities (their balance sheet).  Excessive surprises erode the strength of their talking tool.

Agree with you here.


Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4076 on: September 22, 2022, 09:45:39 PM »
Ummm did the seller and listing agent not realize that I sold the same floor plan for $1,465,000 in late August???

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Cherry-Tree-92620/home/58556661

Yet somehow they think they'll get $1.6m which is even over the closed comps from June/July which were around $1.5m.  This one will sit with price cuts. 
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Offline callmehere

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Offline ThirtySomethingWEquity

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #4079 on: September 24, 2022, 08:48:56 PM »
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Dry-Crk-92602/home/143911438?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet
This was shown on the Netflix show “Selling OC”.  Looks like it went live…at $8.8mil. I wonder what it’ll sell for!?

So, I realize taste is subjective but come on, that is a fugly kitchen right?  8.8 mil wtf?  How in the world can anyone compare this with the ~9 M properties in Shady Canyon and think "yeah that looks like the right price".

 

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