Author Topic: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers  (Read 1705192 times)

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Offline zubs

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2865 on: April 26, 2021, 09:00:08 PM »



Taken from redfin today for 92604 $/sqft single house.
Looks like it's going up...
Plus all the houses getting 6+ bids, and sellers having an easy time selling...


Why do you think 2018 was the peak? prices are definitely higher today.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2866 on: April 27, 2021, 12:41:34 PM »
You are giga trolling if you are arguing that real estate is down in Irvine.

https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends/

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview

Which of those sources supports USC's realtor hype of 12-15% gains YoY?

Offline Cares

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2867 on: April 27, 2021, 12:45:07 PM »
You are giga trolling if you are arguing that real estate is down in Irvine.

https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends/

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview

Which of those sources supports USC's realtor hype of 12-15% gains YoY?

No but it certainly doesn't support your narrative that the market is down. It is closer to 12-15% gain than it is to depreciation.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2868 on: April 27, 2021, 12:49:13 PM »
You are giga trolling if you are arguing that real estate is down in Irvine.

https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends/

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview

Which of those sources supports USC's realtor hype of 12-15% gains YoY?

No but it certainly doesn't support your narrative that the market is down. It is closer to 12-15% gain than it is to depreciation.

Your source Realtor.com shows a decline in Irvine:

Median sold price March 2020: $945,000
Median sold price March 2021: $930,000

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2869 on: April 27, 2021, 04:24:56 PM »
You are giga trolling if you are arguing that real estate is down in Irvine.

https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends/

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview

Which of those sources supports USC's realtor hype of 12-15% gains YoY?

No but it certainly doesn't support your narrative that the market is down. It is closer to 12-15% gain than it is to depreciation.

Your source Realtor.com shows a decline in Irvine:

Median sold price March 2020: $945,000
Median sold price March 2021: $930,000

Do you seriously think Irvine prices are down or flat from last year?  Have you not seen my offer thread?  I'm square in the middle of the madness of the market so I know what is going on first hand. but I can start pulling model match comps from 2020 and compare them to what the same floor plans are closing today. 
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Offline Irvinehomeseeker

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2870 on: April 27, 2021, 04:53:56 PM »
Do you see this price madness stretching into summer? As a seller should you sell now or wait for early summer? Curious to hear your thoughts USC.

Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2871 on: April 27, 2021, 05:24:11 PM »
The Realtor.com data takes all homes to reach a median. My guess here is that given the sheer number of Condo closings relative to SFR's has compressed the Realtor.com information to show those results. Take true SFR to SFR and compare, or Condo to Condo and the picture will be completely different.

It's somewhat the same story for the numbers quoted by the Mortgage Bankers Association. They say this week that a 30 year fixed rates averages 3.17 percent for .30 cost. That's not a true picture as a purchase loan at $800k with an 810 FICO and a refinance loan of $150k with a 675 FICO will have widely different rates and costs - neither of them being at 3.17 percent by any stretch. They are dissimilar transactions using the same financial instrument and do not compare or average well.

This is to say that these average indicators are just that - indications of the present market, but ones that are unreliable and backwards looking.

My .02c
My .02c

SGIP

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Offline Dr. CA Real Estate

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2872 on: April 27, 2021, 05:46:25 PM »
Analytic skills are important: Lesson of the Day
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Offline Cares

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2873 on: April 27, 2021, 08:02:50 PM »
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020

Offline zubs

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2874 on: April 28, 2021, 09:09:30 AM »
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020

Because without a foil you're just talking to yourself.


We welcome all detractors so we can argue about why you're wrong.

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2875 on: April 28, 2021, 11:00:25 AM »
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020

If the data speaks for itself, then you should believe the data that you posted which shows Irvine languishing.

Only by creating your own custom MLS report, and filtering out those pesky property types that don't have the results you want, can you even get close to USC's fake numbers. 

In the past when USC posted raw data it also showed Irvine languishing since 2018, underperforming the rest of Orange County, and underperforming the rate of inflation (which means all cash buyers are losing money in real terms).  Are you telling me three years of subpar performance in Irvine is all due to condos?

Let's just admit it... You assumed the data was on his side without bothering to study it, and now you realize that both you and he were wrong.

Offline Cares

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2876 on: April 28, 2021, 05:49:30 PM »
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020

If the data speaks for itself, then you should believe the data that you posted which shows Irvine languishing.

Only by creating your own custom MLS report, and filtering out those pesky property types that don't have the results you want, can you even get close to USC's fake numbers. 

In the past when USC posted raw data it also showed Irvine languishing since 2018, underperforming the rest of Orange County, and underperforming the rate of inflation (which means all cash buyers are losing money in real terms).  Are you telling me three years of subpar performance in Irvine is all due to condos?

Let's just admit it... You assumed the data was on his side without bothering to study it, and now you realize that both you and he were wrong.

What? My only position ever was that prices were up in Irvine. Your position was that it was down. Who's right? Hint: there is a right and wrong answer here.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2877 on: April 29, 2021, 12:17:00 PM »
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020

If the data speaks for itself, then you should believe the data that you posted which shows Irvine languishing.

Only by creating your own custom MLS report, and filtering out those pesky property types that don't have the results you want, can you even get close to USC's fake numbers. 

In the past when USC posted raw data it also showed Irvine languishing since 2018, underperforming the rest of Orange County, and underperforming the rate of inflation (which means all cash buyers are losing money in real terms).  Are you telling me three years of subpar performance in Irvine is all due to condos?

Let's just admit it... You assumed the data was on his side without bothering to study it, and now you realize that both you and he were wrong.

Here's some examples for you of model match closings and these are not even YOY but from 6-9 months ago...

Closed July 27th, 2020 for $1.7m
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/70-Dunmore-92620/home/59935921

Closed March 19th, 2020 for $1.913m
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Fenway-92620/home/51684702

That's a 12.3% increase that for the same exact floor plan in 8 months


Same exact home closed for $135k more ($995k vs $860k or 15.7% increase) than it 10 months ago (March 2021 vs May 2020)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/37-Calypso-92618/home/40103161


Closed July 7th, 2020 for $979k
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/81-Wildvine-92618/home/112728533

Closed April 2nd, 2020 for $1.095m
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/66-Wildvine-92618/home/112728645

That's a 11.8% increase that for the same exact floor plan in 9 months

I can keep going with specific examples but I think you get the idea.  I'm knee deep in the market and it's not just Irvine that is seeing significant prices increases, it's everywhere else.  If you think Irvine prices are down or even flat from last year, you are kidding yourself because every single home that I put an offer in on has 5-15 offers. If you think my numbers are "fake" then you must be living on a different planet.
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Re: Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
« Reply #2879 on: April 29, 2021, 03:34:41 PM »
Irvine price has definitely been up from what I've seen.

Also agree with USC that it's not just Irvine. It's everywhere else too.

But what's interesting to me is the price increase in Irvine seems to be less compared to a few other cities that I keep tabs on (in terms of % gain)

Eastvale (Riverside county)

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Corona/13229-Kara-Ct-92880/home/6575213#property-history

Sold in 2016 - 430k
Sold in 2021 - 775k

Even Aliso Viejo seems to have bigger % gain than Irvine

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/32-Cliffwood-92656/home/4872206#property-history

Sold in 2016 - 739k
Sold in 2021 - 1155k

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