So, where are we headed?

cubiczirconia

New member
Prof. Shiller says it's double dip if jobs are not created.
What do you think? Double dip? Or just slow growth?

Time to contribute your two cents:)

CZ
 
All things pointing to double dip.  But I think another round of gov stimulation (intervention) is coming to prevent it.
 
Naturally or unnaturally?

Elections this November so look for Fed shenanigans.

I do think we are going to have a long flat road ahead of us. While I would prefer more realistic priced adjustments in real estate in *certain* cities... it's beginning to look like we are getting close to the bottom and we could probably time that with 2012, the next prez election... although rising inventory seems to be countering the lower rates so we might see some more drops in the more stubborn areas.

Sure, rates are low... but not everyone can qualify for them... so we'll see how that shakes out.
 
Still wondering why you can't head a little south. Considering where you work it's still close enough by and then you can still enjoy the chaos that is Diamond Jamboree.

Despite the recent strike, schools down there are decent and you can find homes with nice size lots in the $600s.
 
Patrick Star said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Still wondering why you can't head a little south. Considering where you work it's still close enough by and then you can still enjoy the chaos that is Diamond Jamboree.

All of our extended family --- and I mean all of it --- is in the Northridge/Porter Ranch area.  And the Firm my wife and I work for has an office in Woodland Hills, so we retain the 15 minute commute -- just to another office.  And there is a lot more diversity where we are going than in South OC, that's important to us.  And there is a Louis Vuitton store at Topanga Plaza is Woodland Hills, right near the office.  Not sure if that is a good or bad point.

So for us, things work out --- and maybe even better.  Understand we are unique and many (most) do not have jobs that are as easily transferrable.  We are lucky to have this escape hatch.

LV store near home is bad, but not as bad as wife's friends toting around LV.  ???
 
I am kind of confused.  Why would someone who cannot afford a cookie-cutter home in Irvine be wasting money on a LV bag?  It seems the priorities are a little screwed-up.  Maybe that's the real reason why living in Los Angeles county seems so much more attractive.
 
Patrick Star said:
3) And by my calculations, I could probably buy my wife approximately 3.6 LV bags each year for the next 30 or 40 years with the money I would be wasting on Mello-Roos in just about any Irvine home. 

So who's really wasting money?  At least I get a return on my luxury handbag investment.
Whoah whoah whoah. Don't let your wife read this... she may get some ideas:

"Pat, it's May... time for my 2nd LV bag for 2011... just like you said on TI."
 
We are headed to PIMCO's New Normal!

Seriously though, I do believe returns are going to be rough, especially given tax increases that will happen on both state/federal levels (CA income rate to 15%!)
 
author=Patrick Star link=topic=1069.msg11659#msg11659 date=1281568514

So who's really wasting money?  At least I get a return on my luxury handbag investment.

If you are talking about the return from your wife, happy wife from a shiny new home will get you some also... :D
 
eteezq.jpg


LV bags over Irvine's WTF mello roos. I will drink to that!


Patrick Star said:
Irvine2Irvine said:
If you are talking about the return from your wife, happy wife from a shiny new home will get you some also... :D

Fair point.  And I've always said --- If I had a 40%+ downpayment, I'd buy into Irvine, too.  But I don't have that --- and no loco, a couple $2k purses would not make a bit of difference.  Irvine in 2010 is great if you: 

1) Have the coin to put 40%+ to make an $800k - $1M house reasonable from a monthly outlay on a typical Irvine salary.

2) Or are willing to settle for what is affordable on a monthly basis to those of us with 20% or less down on that same salary. 

I don't fall into either category, so we made a different decision.  But by no means I will judge anyone else's decision.  I'd love to be your and Jumpcut's neighbor, I2I.  We could put those outdoor speakers in our backyard (the ones that look like rocks) and blast kpop down the whole block.

But as good as that sounds, I'd like to get my wife a nice new purse for her birthday, and still sleep at night. Maybe loco's girl gets excited at paying the tax bill.  Hey, whatever floats your boat.  Live and let live, baby.
 
Blueberry East said:
jumpcut said:
Patrick Star said:
I'd love to be your and Jumpcut's neighbor, I2I.  We could put those outdoor speakers in our backyard (the ones that look like rocks) and blast kpop down the whole block.

Someone who appreciates real music rather than just a pretty face (shame there is no britpop that combines the 2)

If the three of us all point our speakers toward Sand Canyon, maybe we can rock out Blueberry in WE...

NOBODY NOBODY BUT YOOOUUUUUU!

Oh no, please no K-Pop. I'm more of a BritPop guy. I admit they don't dance as well, but the music is better.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5a-UCcMboI[/youtube]

Someone who appreciates real music and not just a pretty face (shame Britpop isn't able to combine the 2)
 
The only way we avoid a double dip is if we haven't exited the last recession.  Though notoriously slow in announcing starts and ends to recessions, I believe the silence from NBER on the end of the recession is growing louder. 

Government spending is a component of GDP, and you can't throw around trillions the way that our government has without having an impact on GDP in a $13 trillion economy.

Back out government spending and the only positive contributions to GDP you see are from inventory restocking to get things to a New Normal level after the world almost ended in 2008.

That restocking is winding down now, and the political will as well as available resources for the Federal government to waste more trillions of US taxpayer money is rapidly eroding.

Expect 2nd quarter GDP to be revised downwards from 2.4% to 1.3% or less tomorrow morning.

And with the country facing the largest tax increase in history come January 1st, things look grim.
 
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