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71
Renters / Re: Declining Rents
« Last post by Ready2Downsize on September 23, 2022, 11:28:05 AM »
I have a regret.

I should have bought the model. Then I wouldn't have to get a pool installed after escrow.

I have another regret. I probably could have gotten more from my legacy sale but in the end, the people who bought my place will be paying $33K in property taxes and won't be able to sell for what they paid for a very long time.

Do I have any regrets with what I bought? Nope.
72
General Real Estate and Mortgage Talk / Re: Housing Analysis
« Last post by Liar Loan on September 23, 2022, 11:26:52 AM »
Even the Realtors are predicting PAIN!!!

Realtor.com - The Housing Market Is About To Get Hammered: What Homebuyers, Sellers Should Know

Homebuyers should expect their financial pain to worsen in the coming months.

“The likelihood of a recession with significant job losses is on the table,” says Ratiu. If “people … feel less confident buying homes, [that] will generate a downward spiral, which could put housing in a nosedive.”


https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/the-housing-market-is-about-to-get-hammered-what-homebuyers-sellers-should-know/
73
Renters / Re: Declining Rents
« Last post by Liar Loan on September 23, 2022, 11:19:42 AM »
You're not alone CalBears:

Homebuyer’s remorse: most people who bought a house recently have regrets

https://fortune.com/2022/09/07/homebuyers-remorse-most-people-who-bought-a-house-recently-regret-the-process/
74
Renters / Re: Declining Rents
« Last post by Liar Loan on September 23, 2022, 11:17:10 AM »
Yeah, a whopping 0.13% decrease after 12.3% increase. Scary!!! Really bad news!!! Housing price will fall by 0.13%. Run for the hills.

A -1.6% annualized decline with inflation running at 10%.  Landlords are getting squeezed by higher costs and lower rents, and this is just the first of what will be many months of bad news. 

Your new neighbors were smart to rent because their costs are fixed, if not declining, while yours are steadily increasing.

Ask LL, he rents in Irvine.

Yep, rent free though.  ;)

The declining in a 20 % YOY increase, WTF is LL smokin'?

The posters here are literally losing their minds.

I hope they didn't rent in the past 6-9 months because rents are up over 25% in Irvine in the past year and if they rented a home earlier those tenants can expect a rent hike upon lease expiration.  I bought 2 rentals in 2021 with a client and our fixed rate is 2.99% so how are our costs going up?

It's strange that I would have to explain this to a CPA, but ok, here goes:

Depreciation + Taxes + HOA + Maintenance + Repairs + Management + Rent Collection costs are all going up.  Of course, depreciation will be your biggest expense going forward as the value of these properties declines.  Financing a money losing venture only multiplies the losses.
75
Economy & Finance / Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Last post by Ready2Downsize on September 23, 2022, 11:08:00 AM »
Raising rates is not going to dampen consumer spending as it did in the 70's.

At that time there was no government handouts.

It was shameful to be on welfare and you'd do anything to avoid it.


There was not as many two income households so if things were tight u HAD to cut back.

Credit cards had very low limits. (I'm talking $300 per dept store, so you got lots of cards and to charge more u had to pay off what you owed or go to another store). U couldn't just charge up the wazoo. You HAD to cut spending to make ends meet in those days or write bad checks but eventually that wasn't going to work.

I recently heard that during the pandemic, local high schools were handing out EBT cards, not based on income, but to everybody.  It seems we have an entire generation being conditioned to accept welfare now.

Exactly. The government will always be there to bail you out. How much more debt is the US going to take on with higher and higher servicing costs? I don't know. I HATE debt. I know I could have made a lot leveraging my house, buying rentals, etc. But no debt (cars, house, school etc) means no one can take my things from me.......... ever unless I don't pay the property taxes.
76
Economy & Finance / Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Last post by Liar Loan on September 23, 2022, 10:53:24 AM »
Raising rates is not going to dampen consumer spending as it did in the 70's.

At that time there was no government handouts.

It was shameful to be on welfare and you'd do anything to avoid it.


There was not as many two income households so if things were tight u HAD to cut back.

Credit cards had very low limits. (I'm talking $300 per dept store, so you got lots of cards and to charge more u had to pay off what you owed or go to another store). U couldn't just charge up the wazoo. You HAD to cut spending to make ends meet in those days or write bad checks but eventually that wasn't going to work.

I recently heard that during the pandemic, local high schools were handing out EBT cards, not based on income, but to everybody.  It seems we have an entire generation being conditioned to accept welfare now.
77
Anyone hold fixed or long term adjustable rate  at or below 4% is a winner. The real asset is the notes in this environment  :) :) :).

Indeed, now I can't sell my Tustin Ranch home with a 2.375% 30-year fixed mortgage so I'll be contributing to keep inventory off the market.

It makes no sense to leverage this depreciating investment.  Even if your rate were 0%, you're losing on this deal.  The leverage only multiplies your losses.

If you truly think rates are headed back to 3%, the smart thing would be to sell now, take the 250k tax exemption, and buy later at nearly the same rate.
78
It kills me that I looked at shorting that stock at the end of last year in the mid $20s. Oh well, money to be made elsewhere.

Someone could buy them out I guess for the properties they own. Interesting that redfin is the agent selling some of their properties.

This is what they own in JUST maricopa county:

https://mcassessor.maricopa.gov/mcs/?q=opendoor

I just don't understand why they didn't learn from zillow. They just kept buying until very recently.


Because ALGO!  They are going bankrupt just like Zillow's iBuyer division.  I saw 4 price drops of their Irvine owned homes yesterday and they are already down 5-10% from their purchase price.

I think they have big fees when they buy something. (more than if you just went to a regular agent and then there is the commish they makes selling). Still losing on every property and having carrying costs seems to be not such a good thing. LOL! At least in AZ their carrying costs are MUCH lower than Irvine. I just paid my property taxes............. less than $700 for the entire year. Next year they will probably be full value so less than $2000. Since they just bought all these properties, they are probably paying even less than I did (lots of lower cost homes in lower cost areas).

I tried to buy a house from open door in December. We couldn't get in to see it! I met the realtor at the house, she had to CALL to get a code to get in and there was only a recording saying they are closed on weekends! Told the realtor, this is ridiculous. There is a spec home from the builder. Lets go get that.

Tay Mo is their own worst enemy, imo. I get emails from them several times a week and not a week goes by they don't have another opening for another neighborhood. So I went to the sales office here, WHY!? They said they can't stop building because it becomes a supply issue later. LOL! I said well it is a supply issue NOW! LOL! They don't seem worried.

I've gotten several quotes from Opendoor when I was purchasing my clients' homes as a mini iBuyer and the total fees that they were charging were 7-8%.  So figure they have to pay 2% for a buyer agent to flip it, at least another 1% for closing costs (that's be conservative), and they have about 5% left to play with.  All 4 homes that I saw lowering the price in Irvine were down 5-10% from their purchase price so they'll lose money on all of the homes. 
79
Economy & Finance / Re: Stock picks
« Last post by momopi on September 23, 2022, 10:05:07 AM »
My small limit orders set at 52-week low price for couple select stocks executed.  Bought GOOG at $100.  Next step $80.
You are short goog?

No, I average down (buy and hold) on stocks with exception to BRK-B fund, which I purchase monthly.

I also purchase small amount of gold/silver annually.  Over the years they all add up.
80
It kills me that I looked at shorting that stock at the end of last year in the mid $20s. Oh well, money to be made elsewhere.

Someone could buy them out I guess for the properties they own. Interesting that redfin is the agent selling some of their properties.

This is what they own in JUST maricopa county:

https://mcassessor.maricopa.gov/mcs/?q=opendoor

I just don't understand why they didn't learn from zillow. They just kept buying until very recently.


Because ALGO!  They are going bankrupt just like Zillow's iBuyer division.  I saw 4 price drops of their Irvine owned homes yesterday and they are already down 5-10% from their purchase price.

I think they have big fees when they buy something. (more than if you just went to a regular agent and then there is the commish they makes selling). Still losing on every property and having carrying costs seems to be not such a good thing. LOL! At least in AZ their carrying costs are MUCH lower than Irvine. I just paid my property taxes............. less than $700 for the entire year. Next year they will probably be full value so less than $2000. Since they just bought all these properties, they are probably paying even less than I did (lots of lower cost homes in lower cost areas).

I tried to buy a house from open door in December. We couldn't get in to see it! I met the realtor at the house, she had to CALL to get a code to get in and there was only a recording saying they are closed on weekends! Told the realtor, this is ridiculous. There is a spec home from the builder. Lets go get that.

Tay Mo is their own worst enemy, imo. I get emails from them several times a week and not a week goes by they don't have another opening for another neighborhood. So I went to the sales office here, WHY!? They said they can't stop building because it becomes a supply issue later. LOL! I said well it is a supply issue NOW! LOL! They don't seem worried.
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