Quote from: fortune11 on April 20, 2019, 08:40:45 PM

what has been the population change in the last 6 years ?  Doesn’t that have a bearing also ?

What’s the marginal income change in last 6 years  (top quartile of buyer pool) ? Forget median income, that’s meaningless when it comes to coastal states .

Absolute stats are not as meaningful as “months of inventory “ which accounts for changes in the velocity of the market . I think USC had some good posts on that metric .

We should definitely pay attention to potential change in the velocity of the market. Which is why I bring up Chinese FCBs because a mass selling in a short period of time will cause market disruption. This happened to Taipei RE (Taiwan) when Chinese pulled money out at rapid pace. RE value dropped 40% in a 5-6 years period. (during a bull market too)

If we are going to talk about population change, we should also mention the rapid change in Irvine demographics. The huge surge of Asian population is unseen in any other coastal area in LA or Orange county.

Irvine is not a wealth concentrated area like real coastal cities like Newport or even Mission Viejo. Look at the age discrepancy of the median Native-born age(25.9) to the median Foreign-born age (42.7) in Irvine. This kind of large gap is no where to be seen at any other city in LA or OC.

Also never hear anyone mention the poverty rate in Irvine is really high at 12.7%.  Yorba Linda is 3.83%, Mission Viejo is 4.75%, Newport is 6.5%.

Median income is probably meaningless for Newport Beach but I don't entirely agree with the notion that median income is meaningless to Irvine.

Yet despite these stats, irvine still fared better during the last downturn and still has premium pricing and demand compared to Yorba Linda and Mission Viejo. Newport Beach is a different animal yet as other posters have mentioned, people still spend as much in Irvine.

There have been quite a few chiming in on why there won't be a major selloff in Irvine by investors/FCBs/etc which seems to hold true based on past experience.

I know a rich Chinese family that owns a rental in Irvine, and a "vacation" home in Newport Coast.  The money they used to buy these 2 properties among other things was difficult to get out of China.  It's hard to believe they would sell these 2 properties after all the shit they went through to get it here in the first place.  Think of all the transaction costs that come up when uncle pooh bear puts a $50,000 annual limit per person.


They already have tons of property in China....the property in the US is additional.  It's a Swiss bank account that can be lived in or rented out.

Many people are unfamiliar with how wealthy Chinese people got money out of China. Prior to the new capital outflow regulation (2018), Chinese people could get funds out of China as long the funds were tied to their financial holdings in China (used as collateral). What happened was that wealthy Chinese people would pay the bankers to come up with fake appraisals that would allow them to take out 150%, 200%, some even 300% of their actual equity. (Chinese banks are a mixture of private/public business. Very corrupted)

This is one of the top issues that the Chinese government is currently cracking down on. This is also the reason why many of these wealthy Chinese pay money laundering service insane fees like 20% just to get money out. This is also why you see many FCBs, being price insensitive, just throw cash overbidding everyone else.

There’s no point for them to sell their holdings in China because the loan is already way bigger than its real worth.

also FYI, Swiss banks already bowed to pressure and have started to work with the IRS and the Chinese government. It's not the same safe heaven as it was.

I know a rich Chinese family that owns a rental in Irvine, and a "vacation" home in Newport Coast.  The money they used to buy these 2 properties among other things was difficult to get out of China.  It's hard to believe they would sell these 2 properties after all the shit they went through to get it here in the first place.  Think of all the transaction costs that come up when uncle pooh bear puts a $50,000 annual limit per person.


They already have tons of property in China....the property in the US is additional.  It's a Swiss bank account that can be lived in or rented out.

Pretty straight forward now after what’s come out.... nothing will happen to Trump...again.

Are you reading the summary or the actual report? I would expect my defense attorney (ag) to say something in my denfense. Lol come on