let the prices RISE lol

Quote from: woodburyowner on January 20, 2020, 08:25:07 PM

Quote from: irvinehomeowner on January 20, 2020, 08:15:10 PM

Did anyone do the Tesla rental?

I did.  It's exactly as advertised.  Quick install, no BS, no games.  The process was extremely streamlined.

What size did you go for? What was your bill before and after? Still considering it, but our SCE bill is just about $60/month during non-summer months.

Went for the small size.  That's all my roof had space for.  My bill averages $75 during on-summer months, but then I got an EV a few months back.  I'm definitely coming up ahead, but the amount is unknown at this point.  For solar, you have to switch to a TOU plan and it makes the calculation very difficult. 

Trojan, Here are three dates from the past and three prior recessions. Just for fun, let's pretend that the unemployment % = magnitude # of an earthquake.

March 1990 Unemployment rate 2.7% and recession started Aug 1990 Unemployment rate 3.8%, Magnitude 7.1
Dec 1999 Unemployment rate 2.2% and recession started Mar 2001 Unemployment rate 3.6%, Magnitude 5.3
Dec 2006 Unemployment rate 3.1% and recession started Dec 2007 Unemployment rate 4.2% Magnitude 10.2

Oct 2019 Unemployment rate 2.5% and recession will start (??) The earthquake Magnitude of a 5, didn't really impact the housing prices in Irvine, but if number hit 7 or above... Irvine Home Prices will be hit just like it did in (1990-1995) and (2007-2009). The current unemployment rate in the OC have very little margin to play with as 2.2% seems  to the record low unemployment rate in the OC and the unemployment chart never flat lines horizontally, but always moves like a wave moving either up or down.

Quote from: Panda on Yesterday at 05:43:30 PM

Trojan.

The charts don't lie... look at the OC unemployment chart. So you think that unemployment rate in OC is just going to flat line here at between 2 - 2.5%? If this chart was a stock, I would be loading the truck and betting big time going long here.

Quote from: USCTrojanCPA on Yesterday at 05:37:54 PM

Quote from: Panda on Yesterday at 05:21:23 PM

Mety,
Yes. Take a look at the OC unemployment chart above. The unemployment % cannot be negative therefore it is a matter of time of a reversal. If the OC employment chart was a stock, I would be loading the truck to bet big that the OC unemployment rate will reverse from its all time low.

The gray bar indicates previous recessions. Irvine housing was not impacted too much in the recession between 2000-2002 where the unemployment rate rose to 5%, however when it reached 7% from 1990 - 1994 and 10% between 2007-2009, you will see the Irvine home prices drop. Trojan's median and average Irvine home price chart is already start to see the beginning of a reversal.   

Quote from: Mety on Yesterday at 03:05:36 PM

Quote from: Panda on Yesterday at 01:01:26 PM

Mety. The unemployment chart for OC moves in a wave pattern. You can see that currently that the unemployment moves in a wave pattern and never in a horizontal line. The gray bar indicates previous recessions.

So you predict it will go up and the housing price will go down soon?

The job market from what I hear from my clients is very strong. Employees getting poached for higher salaries, higher bonuses, promotions, stock option values increasing, and employees thrown relocation packages to move.  Just like with interest rates, we can keep bouncing around this very low unemployment rate for a bit and I'd argue that there is some frictional unemployment rate that we won't go below.  I think the real estate market is currently in a digestion phase of the prices increases since the last election.  My clients asked me where I think the market will go this year and my prediction is that prices will essentially stay flat (assuming rates stay below 4%) in 2020.

I don't think the unemployment rate can flat much from current levels but yes, I don't see anything in the near term that would cause the employment rate to materially rise. It's the same way that bond rates stayed lower for longer than people thought. I remember telling clients in late 2018 that rates go back down into the 3s before they went into the 6s. There has to be catalyst/s for the unemployment rate to go up and I'm not seeing anything like that right now (doesn't mean that one can't appear), not just because the unemployment rate has been low for too long (i.e. using technical analysis like you would with a stock chart). 

The landfill emanates no odors to reach any part of Irvine, period. That's a fact. I won't argue over this with anyone on this forum, unless you've spent 10+ hours talking with the landfill subject experts and done your own testing and observation and truly sought scientific data on it. There is no point arguing honestly if all you're going to do is to spread falsehoods about what one "feels" is the issue here. The winds at the critical times of landfill operation blow mostly westward away from Portola Springs and toward other villages west of the landfill. Just like the asphalt plant odors blowing westward. And those areas are not Portola Springs, and also have no odors from the landfill. The actual landfill has no odors. I’ve been there many times. The odors are actually the worst, I’m told, in the trucks before emptying (driving up sand canyon) and during emptying before being compacted which happens quickly at the landfill. 

There is NO trash gravy. That's also another fact. Please raise your voice if you have proof to the contrary. If you do, the county probably will reach out to you to clarify your claim because this is not a joke to them and to the experts they have on staff that take pride in what they do. The waters in the bee canyon wash are from 1) stormwater (released 2-3 times per year at most, from the water that's collected near 241 slopes - has nothing to do with landfill collected water) 2) a spring (hence, the name Tomato Springs), 3) probably some collection from TIC orchards on the other side of 241 undergoing daily watering, with groundwater collecting in the sub drains.

The water in the bee canyon wash has been tested thoroughly, and undergoing more REGULAR testing, and every test has been clean. No VOCs, no sulfide, no nothing pretty much in it. These waters are VERY heavily protected under state and federal laws because they end up in the bays and eventually ocean. That's another fact.

The waters in bee canyon wash are NOT any different than other constantly draining water channels that fill reservoirs around Orchard Hills (rattlesnake reservoir, other reservoirs in this area) and other parts of Irvine. The only difference is that the Bee canyon wash itself is HEAVILY HEAVILY protected under State laws due to the channel being under the jurisdiction of State Agency of Fish and Game, and hence the huge struggle to get it cleaned and maintained on a routine basis by the city. The city has been unable until now to have enough political push to get Fish & Game to let go of their protection. That push came from residents (me and others who helped a lot from Lambert Ranch) who engaged the right people at the top and got their attention. That hurdle is over at this point, permits are obtained for the 300k cleanup, and permits are obtained for ONGOING maintenance just like any other channel in Irvine and OC. It was a game of politics that's been handled now.

The odors completely emanate from Bee Canyon wash. In 2012-2015 there were no odors here per residents that lived here. That's because in 2012, TIC who built the bee canyon wash per US/county regulations, handed the channel to the city of Irvine. Prior to handing it over, the channel was cleaned and dredged bone dry (evidence on Google Earth historical images from 2012-2013 time frame). Hence, no smell whatsoever, until about 2016 when heavy vegetation began to grow in this area and never cleaned or dredged or maintained until now.

My goal after the post I read 2 months ago in this forum about the "health hazards" of Portola Springs, was to turn every rock, and pursue every lead, and look at every source of true health hazard for the sake my family. An uncleaned, unmaintained wash with purely organic decayed vegetation is all I found as a culprit and a hazard. And it certainly, unequivocally is the source of the smells in this area. While we had the smells near the wash actively one day, I drove along with city staff and stood on the actual land to the other side of 241 on the landfill side of the mountain, and there is absolutely zero odors. Then drove back with the city staff to the Portola Springs side of 241 near the wash, and the smell was present again. A street named Falcon Ridge is the best example. Half the street closest to the wash has odors, and the other half has no odors, while both halves are equidistance to the landfill. This is a reproducible result every single time we have strong odors (which is probably once every 2 weeks oct to dec, coinciding with dry air conditions).

The wash has a pond, marsh-like conditions at this point with stagnant water and organic decayed vegetation from years of growth in it. Pond-like conditions release odors due to anerobic deoxygenated conditions most commonly (per scientific studies) in the fall time, right around the time of the first cold weather after the summer heat. That's why the odors always start in Oct. The anerobic-byproduct odors are also released in a diurnal pattern in these pond-like conditions, starting at sunset and ending release about 2 hours after sunrise (again, all scientific studies and proven). They are most noticeable around 6-7 pm and 7 am due to wind inversion that occurs naturally around these two times, when wind directions changes 180 degrees and the result is a stagnant layer of air. That's why smog is worse around these times, and any odors are more apparent around these times. The odors also coincide with dry air conditions that dry the sediment from its water cover and expose the sediment to air, accelerating the release of the odors. Any pond-like condition, anywhere in Irvine or OC will have the same consequences of odors, starting in Oct/Nov and with the same release patterns. Heaven and earth and moon have to align for half hour of odors to occur, felt probably once every 2 weeks, and that’s been a source of struggle, given infrequency, it has been hard to track it and prove it to city and county to fix it. That’s also a hurdle that’s been addressed once we got engaged residents who all corroborated the same description, which allowed the city to act. Once we were a group, we were easily believed and the city engagement became very strong. The Mayor and City Manager met us here and apologized for giving the residents the “run around” during the previous administration (as described by Irvine buyer and other neighbors who met with city similarly 2-3 years ago with no fix offered by the city) and vowed to permanently fix the issue.

The Columbus grove area may be affected by the stagnant water emanating smell within the huge water channel that's near it (Peters Canyon). I've certainly smelled it many times during my bike rides and it smells far far worse than anything Bee canyon wash does. There is a huge body of stagnant water and cattails there. In comparison, the bee canyon wash probably has 1/50th of the volume of stagnant water and sediment. Who knows. Maybe call the city and pursue it. Test the waters. Test the area. Become active participant in problem solving rather than complain and bash the neighborhood. That’d be the right thing to do. You may get a permanent fix in place like we did here.

Our Portola Springs is absolutely a joy to live in, with great neighborhoods, and absolutely stunning Southwest sunlit facing views on elevated lots (If you happen to be on one). I wouldn't trade it for ANY area of Irvine short of a few lots in Orchard Hills and a few lots in the newer areas of Portola Springs. I think it's an absolute steal of a place to live in when you factor in the cost savings as other experienced forum members here keep on repeating. And I've gotten Mayor and City Manager and TIC Vice President to notice the issue we have with non-maintenance of Bee Canyon Wash, and the fix is in place, contracts are signed, consultants are hired, and will be completed before end of Feb. I couldn’t ask for a better outcome from the city and Mayor Shea and City Manager John Russo who all met with us locally.

I encourage everyone on these forums to let go of "bashing" neighborhoods with unsubstantiated claims such as "Trash Gravy" and instead get out, think, knock on some doors, talk to neighbors, talk to your city officials, and get to the bottom of it and fix it. Be an active participant of your neighborhoods. There are many areas in OC that need fixing, whether from odors (OH with asphalt odors, other north Irvine areas with hyper-local odor issues, HB/FV/Long Beach with mysterious odors) or other issues (Traffic, congestion, smog, school issues, proposed developments, homeless, noise, fire hazard, whatever the issues at hand that may be), and bashing each area on these forums doesn't help anyone.

I won't reply to any posts because it tends to get out of hand. Best of luck to everyone in their respective neighborhoods. If you want to help, and if you have the time and energy, Please try to identify one issue a year that affects your area and fix it. You'll help yourself and a lot of other people. And you'll spend less time bashing certain areas with unsubstantiated claims. But hey, thank you for doing it to me, I channeled it towards a fix instead of becoming frustrated with the negativity of some posters here. I found the source of our issue and engaged the highest levels of city and county for a fix for our problem! Very happy with the outcome.

Good night folks.