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1
General Real Estate and Mortgage Talk / Re: Housing Analysis
« Last post by daedalus on Yesterday at 08:50:16 PM »
Would I blame the media for causing a slow down because they reported on it after said slow down had already started?  No.  If I ran a large company I would prefer that people not think I was an idiot. 
2
Economy & Finance / Re: Yield curve inversion
« Last post by Panda on Yesterday at 06:56:00 PM »


The grey highlight represents a recession.
3
Irvine Real Estate / Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Last post by Kenkoko on Yesterday at 06:04:47 PM »
How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

It's still legal to transfer money out of china , but it has gotten much more restrictive. Prior to July of 2017, each Chinese person can legally transfer 50k USD every year out of China legally.  Now every transaction over 7k needs to be reported and triggers an automatic audit.
Since 2017, you also have to file extra paperwork in which you have to specify that this fund is for not being used to buy foreign real estate,stock,life insurance etc or face massive fines and have accounts frozen.

Majority of Chinese FCBs use illegal underground money services. The cost is high tho. We've heard as high as 25%.

Most common illegal ways to do it yourself

1) Obtain Chinese Hong Kong status. Hong Kong accounts are much less regulated.
2) Move it bit by bit by involving friends and family. You can still legally move foreign currency in small transaction, up to total 50k a year, to 4 or less foreign account and still avoid an audit. If you have 4 friends/family with US accounts and each of them have 4 friends/family with foreign accounts, you can move 1 million out of china per year. This part is obviously illegal.
3) A lot of Chinese bank issued debit cards that do not have foreign transaction limits. A lot of people buy luxury goods in US and resell or return them for cash.
4) Fly the cash out. The legal limit is 5k USD when you fly into US but people often risk it by putting more cash in checked luggage.
4
Irvine Real Estate / Re: Orchard Hills Neighborhood 3
« Last post by WTTCHMN on Yesterday at 04:26:52 PM »
Floor plans kind of choppy, smallish secondary bedrooms, and really doesn't scream luxury

There’s nothing more luxurious than Walmart handsoap in the sales office bathroom.
5
Irvine Real Estate / Re: Orchard Hills Neighborhood 3
« Last post by ps9 on Yesterday at 03:41:38 PM »
I visited Ravello over the weekend, plan 1 has a really awkward entrance.  Great room was too small (my current old school family room is bigger plus I have a living room).  One bedroom upstairs has a walk in closet.  Loft does not overlook below so claustrophobic feel to it,  might as well convert to a bedroom.   Not a fan of plan1.  Plan 2 has a much better entrance and the loft overlooks into the family room.  I’m no expert but that to me is a better loft experience when it open to below.  The vaulted ceiling has a big uneven slant though.  For those with OCD, not recommended :)  and the great room is noticeably darker than the two other floor plans.  Not sure if it’s due to the severe slanted roof.  The TV wall for plan 2 is facing the backyard and unless you cover up those beautiful sliding doors, glare would be an issue in day time.  Putting the TV on the other wall is probably a must but might look weird since the original spot has a wall cutout for entertainment center.  Master bed has his/her closets.  Not much counter space in bathroom.  No walk in closets I believe for the secondary bedrooms.  Plan 3 has a similar entrance feel with plan2, the vaulted entrance is nothing special, they just ‘pushed’ up the entrance ceiling a little.  I though it would be open to 2nd floor or something.  Lots of counter space in kitchen.  And the TV wall setup is better than plan 2.  Master bath has little counter space and a huge walk in closet.  Like plan 1, the upstairs loft is cut off from overlooking the family room below, so might as well make it a bedroom. 
6
Irvine Real Estate / Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Last post by Halos on Yesterday at 03:38:16 PM »
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings. :P

How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

Chinese P2P lending then into Bitcoin. Both have imploded, and now you see articles coming out of Seattle, etc how the foreign money has dried up. We're running on fumes at this point.
7
Around Town / Re: Police arrest Irvine woman in slaying of mother, 92
« Last post by Loco_local on Yesterday at 02:10:13 PM »
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/irvine/crime

How is it possible Irvine is rated 43 and 100 is the safest?

MY CHANCES OF BECOMING A VICTIM OF A VIOLENT CRIME
1 IN 1,529
in Irvine
1 IN 225
in California
8
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/irvine/crime

How is it possible Irvine is rated 43 and 100 is the safest?
9
Irvine Real Estate / Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Last post by eyephone on Yesterday at 09:28:28 AM »
So much for the theory that housing is not a leading indicator ...

Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..

But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .

Nope. The stock is more of a value play. The P/E is around 8.31 according to yahoo finance.

I wouldn’t bottom fish home builder stocks.

10
Irvine Real Estate / Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Last post by fortune11 on Yesterday at 07:57:51 AM »
So much for the theory that housing is not a leading indicator ...

Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..

But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .
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Recent Posts

Re: Housing Analysis by daedalus
[Yesterday at 08:50:16 PM]


Re: Yield curve inversion by Panda
[Yesterday at 06:56:00 PM]


Re: When would be next housing Bottom? by Kenkoko
[Yesterday at 06:04:47 PM]


Re: Orchard Hills Neighborhood 3 by WTTCHMN
[Yesterday at 04:26:52 PM]


Re: Orchard Hills Neighborhood 3 by ps9
[Yesterday at 03:41:38 PM]