Talk Irvine

General => Real Estate => Irvine Real Estate => Topic started by: USCTrojanCPA on May 08, 2010, 04:31:16 PM

Title: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 08, 2010, 04:31:16 PM
I am currently working with a several buyers, including 2 cash buyers, who are actively looking for a SFRs in Irvine.  From working with them, I have the following general observations:

1)  Short Sale listings tend to have the best pricing but the pricing on these short sales is getting closer and closer to market price
2)  The % of short sale listings that are getting approval and close have been on the rise over the past 6+ months
3)  Many home priced around market gets multiple offers, including over list price (some even sight unseen)
4)  There are very few REO properties for sale (this makes sense as foreclosures keep getting postponed at the foreclosure auction)
5)  Most of the organic sellers who have equity list their homes for WTF prices, at times extreme WTF prices that are even higher than bubble peak prices (I wonder if they are serious sellers or are they fishing for suckers?)
6)  Organic sellers are taking a while to lower their WTF asking prices and when they do lower the prices it is by $10k-$20k
7)  TIC has been able to sell the Woodbury home collection in relative short order and there have been announcements of new home developments due to the strong demand

The attached spreadsheet illustrates the strength and pick up in the Irvine real estate market since last May.  Things really started to pick up in Oct of last year and the re-sale number would have been that much higher if TIC would not have come along with the Woodbury home collection.  That being said, there would have been a limitation on the number of sales due to the lack of inventory.  Inventory levels continue to be low and buyer demand is very strong (as validated by the fact that there are only about 3 months worth of homes on the market).  About 1 in every 5 of 6 homes in bought for cash and the majority of the rest are bought with significant down payments of 40%+.  The foreclosure wave is not coming, banks will slowly bleed inventory into the market which will be absorbed by the buyers. 

On a more specific note, one of my cash buyers has been getting outbid on their search for a Irvine home by both financed and other cash buyers.  One of my other buyers purchased a condo over in Northwood recently.  We got into escrow by asking quickly when the listing came out and bought it at $9k under list price.  The interesting thing was that several offers at and above list price ($10k-$20k above list) came days after the seller signed our counter offer.  I don't think a lot of the bears understand how strong the buyer demand for Irvine homes is out there.  I too was a bear but after what I saw with my every eyes over the past 6-9 months, I began to realize that the strength was for real.

We'll have to see if the European debt mess spreads and we get a replay of Sept 2008.  It'll be interesting to see what will happen over the next few months with the tax credits going away.  I think there might be a little pause, but as long as Europe doesn't implode and drag the rest of the world with it, including us, the real estate market in Irvine will keep ticking along.  We shall see...

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine2Irvine on May 08, 2010, 06:15:53 PM
I agree with the assessment.

I sold my house in Feb and have been looking for a place ever since.
I am looking for 4br 3ba house 15 years old or newer.  There is just no inventory.  When something comes up that are move in condition, it is priced around $370+ per sq ft, but gets picked up right away.  I put in an offer on an Woodbury house at asking price within 3 days of the house coming out on the market.  I never even received a counter offer.  The seller accepted a "very good" offer and did not bother with other multiple offers.  I can only imagine how much over asking price she got.  My guess is easily $30K over the asking price.
I also see that the Short sale prices creeping up and the bank is asking a lot more than they were back in Oct/Nov 2009.  On a couple of offers I have put in the short sale houses, the bank is coming back with WTF prices. 

It's just frustrating!!!

I did notice that the interest rate actually went down last few days.  Wonder if the European crisis will keep the interest low for a while....
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 08, 2010, 07:54:41 PM
I agree with the assessment.

I sold my house in Feb and have been looking for a place ever since.
I am looking for 4br 3ba house 15 years old or newer.  There is just no inventory.  When something comes up that are move in condition, it is priced around $370+ per sq ft, but gets picked up right away.  I put in an offer on an Woodbury house at asking price within 3 days of the house coming out on the market.  I never even received a counter offer.  The seller accepted a "very good" offer and did not bother with other multiple offers.  I can only imagine how much over asking price she got.  My guess is easily $30K over the asking price.
I also see that the Short sale prices creeping up and the bank is asking a lot more than they were back in Oct/Nov 2009.  On a couple of offers I have put in the short sale houses, the bank is coming back with WTF prices. 

It's just frustrating!!!

I did notice that the interest rate actually went down last few days.  Wonder if the European crisis will keep the interest low for a while....

Believe me, I feel your pain.  Do you mind me asking what size and where the home that you sold in Feb was?  I'll give you a couple of specific examples of the strength of the market...my cash buyer put an FULL priced off on 19 Sandpiper at $550k for a 3bed/2bath Woodbridge home...they got outbid by 3 offers, including one that was another cash offer.  They submitted an offer on 17 Soaring Hawk in Woodbridge at $590k...the seller counters back at $100 over list price.  Inventory is increasing a little bit, but it's lower than it was last year at this time while the number of sales are up 20-40% year-over-year.  I notice that new sellers are increasing their list prices as they see that Irvine home prices are up about 10% from last year.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Panda on May 08, 2010, 08:57:19 PM
What is even funnier is seeing some of these Woodbury home listings purchased in 2006 looking to make a profit this year. These funny little yellow guys actually think their homes have appreciated since 2006. Seriously.. I would ONLY live in Irvine if i had family, friendships, relationships, and deep roots to the area, but definitely NOT if you are looking to make a buck as this Irvine housing market is sooo freakin over priced. With these WTF prices they are paying, how do they plan to resell these homes in the future. I respect the fact that the Asian buyers in Irvine have a lot money... but they are just plain stupid if they buying into this overpriced madness.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine2Irvine on May 08, 2010, 09:00:56 PM
My house was 38 yr old house about 1500 sq ft and sold for almost $390 sq ft.  I did get multiple offers including a full cash offer and ended up selling for about $4K over the listing price.  I sold the house basically two days after the first showing which was the open house.  It kind of makes me feel like I priced my house too low\.  TALK about being a hypocritical!!!!  It's great when I am selling, but it sucks when I am buying.   At least from my experience, I can definitely say that Irvine is still a HUGE seller's market.

Also for the 4br 3ba less than 15 year old that I am looking for, the inventory is much lower today than back in Feb/Mar. :(

My wife is getting restless now that we have been "houseless" for a couple of months.

As for Panda's comment, I totally agree.  Only reason why I am looking to buy in Irvine is because my wife has friends in Irvine, my kids already go to school and belong to the Boy Scouts in Irvine and have friends in Irvine.  We have been living in Irvine for almost 15 years now since before we had our first child, so we are deeply imbeded in the community.  We now have 3 kids and have completely outgrown our home.  Luckly, we bought our house a long time ago and was able to come out a way ahead therefore can put down over 50%.  That means I am not a FCB, but a person with "old money".  If I had my way, I would move out of the city with the equity I have and buy a really nice house with a big lot and maybe even with a view.  But, I am a family man and must yield to the desires of the family which is to stay put in Irvine.  Therefore I must sacrifice and overpay for a house in Irvine.  However, my plan is to hopefully cash out after my kids are done with school and move out to a more reasonably priced neighboorhood about 15 years from now.  Hopefully, I will not be behind when I do so..
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Panda on May 08, 2010, 09:13:36 PM
Ahhwww.. The good old days puts a BIG Smile on Panda's face. :) That is the Irvine that Panda wants to remember.. the good ole days when everyone in Irvine are happy, holding hands and singing together  :D .

http://www.smugmug.com/gallery/11644986_a7YJg#821087277_7UpCP (http://www.smugmug.com/gallery/11644986_a7YJg#821087277_7UpCP)

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine2Irvine on May 08, 2010, 09:37:49 PM
Who knows???  Maybe we will be saying the same thing in 2025 about 2010.  (I seriously doubt it!!!)

Only advise I can give is the same advise I give to the younger generations at my work.  Buy a house when you need it.  Don't buy it because of the $8K gov't incentive or the $10K California incentive.  Don't buy it because you think you are going to get to write off the taxes because the income tax saving you might realize will not be enough to pay for the property tax and the maintenance.  Where to buy that house is totally upto you and no body else.  Only you can decide...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: iacrenter on May 08, 2010, 09:42:41 PM
There has been some great blogging over at our old home at IHB over the last few weeks. Basically, there are some larger macroeconomic forces working their way through the system. Chiefly, large number of delinquent loans that need to be cured. If we are to believe these new policies from BofA, then we should see an acceleration of REO activity in the latter part of 2010. Secondly, as mortgage interest rates rise we should see further price pressure.

With such low current inventory in Irvine, I do not see much reason for price declines yet. But given the larger economic forces at work, there is no need to rush and buy a home in Irvine. With a little bit of patience, even Irvine will yield further declines.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine2Irvine on May 08, 2010, 09:54:07 PM
That will be great when/if that happens.
However, I just noticed that the mortgage rates actually went down in last few days.  It may be because of the European crisis which is driving the stock market down, therefore making people flee to bond market driving the yield lower.  As you know the bond market is closely tied to the mortgage rate.  Just wondering if the European crisis is going to keep the mortgage rate low for rest of the year or two.  Let's just say that it is very hard to predict near future market conditions that drive the mortgage rates. 
Also, as many people on this forum predicted, the price may not go down in direct relation to rate increase in Irvine because so many people are putting down such a big down payment.  Only a significant rise in inventory will lower the price to where we want them to be.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 08, 2010, 10:06:01 PM
That will be great when/if that happens.
However, I just noticed that the mortgage rates actually went down in last few days.  It may be because of the European crisis which is driving the stock market down, therefore making people flee to bond market driving the yield lower.  As you know the bond market is closely tied to the mortgage rate.  Just wondering if the European crisis is going to keep the mortgage rate low for rest of the year or two.  Let's just say that it is very hard to predict near future market conditions that drive the mortgage rates. 
Also, as many people on this forum predicted, the price may not go down in direct relation to rate increase in Irvine because so many people are putting down such a big down payment.  Only a significant rise in inventory will lower the price to where we want them to be.
You hit the nail on the head...until inventory levels increase and get over 6+ months of supply can we even talk about price declines.  The European debt mess is not going away next week...many of the over leveraged countries out there will have to rein in their spending which will put the deflation fears on the front burners.  We'll see 4.5% mortgage rates before we see 6% mortgage rates.   The leading indicator for price declines will be the inventory of homes for sale so keep a close eye on that. 

Btw, people you've been having so much trouble find a home are you guys even considering buying a new home over in Woodbury?  Just curious because two of my buyers did just that.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine2Irvine on May 08, 2010, 10:13:17 PM
Believe it or not, I am getting close to giving up on a resale home and going for a new home in Woodbury.  The price is actually less than a resale per square foot even after upgrades and landscaping.  However, I have to live with a motor court or zero lot line.  Having been a zero lot line owner for past 15 years, I am not so thrilled with the idea but the motorcourt makes me feel like I own a townhome when I walk out the door.  I know that no home is perfect and that I must pick the lesser of evils, but it does make me feel a little "unsettled".
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 08, 2010, 10:18:03 PM
Believe it or not, I am getting close to giving up on a resale home and going for a new home in Woodbury.
I believe it and that is exactly why TIC has been able to sell as many homes as they have in a short time.  They are looking at the same thing that we are....low inventory levels with a bunch of frustrated buyers looking to buy a home and they are squeezing as much profit out of those homes they can with the motor courts, zero lot lines, and tiny lots.  It's a shame that we'll never see a new in home built on a 7,000sf+ lot for less than $1m.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine2Irvine on May 08, 2010, 10:31:13 PM
I completely agree.

However, I also wonder about the flip side of the coin.  I wonder if the current housing craziness is created partially by the TIC.  Before the 2010 Woodbury collection, the market was still relatively on the down side.  The short sales were actually priced and sold like short sale.  There were no crazy bidding wars on resale homes.  It just seems that starting at beginning of 2010, things started getting crazy.  Maybe it's coincedence and TIC got lucky with the timing or maybe TIC put people into a buying mood with the 2010 Woodbury collection and drove market higher.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 14, 2010, 11:06:11 PM
Some interesting developments over the past month and half since the tax credit craziness has passed.  As I predicted, even Irvine has hit an air pocket of buyers (as shown by the YOY decline in July sales) after all that demand got pushed forward from the tax credits.  Add to that the 800 homes TIC throw onto the market which sold (for the most part) plus add the increasing inventory levels and we are approaching a neutral market versus a seller's market.  That being said, 75-80% of the new Irvine listings are equity sellers who are asking beyond WTF stupid prices.  Here are just a few examples:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Sand-92614/home/4697726  ($50-$60/sf above comps)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Alderbrook-92604/home/4688255 ($60-$70/sf above comps)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2-Glenoaks-92618/home/4746564 ($80-100/sf above comps)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/115-Tearose-92603/home/5902055 ($70-$80/sf above comps)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Sanctuary-92620/home/5959278 ($60-$70/sf above comps)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/158-Trellis-Ln-92620/home/4791002 ($100/sf+ above comps and my favorite as the listing agent states it's "Best priced home...under $700k" what a joke)  ::)

Personally, I think that the majority of sellers like the ones above are just hoping to find that motivated/desperate buyer, errrr...sucker, to buy their homes at those crazy prices.  I believe that once they realize that buyers aren't gonna take the bite and inventory levels keep increasing they'll probably cancel their listings and try again at a later date.  I've also have seen several properties fall out of escrow and of the homes that I've seen with my buyers the listing agent explained that the "buyers didn't qualify" which translated to plain English most likely that the property did not appraise when the lender got the appraisal back and the buyer wasn't willing to kick in more equity to close.

As the attached spreadsheet shows, the Irvine market has lot some of its steam.  Don't get me wrong, properties that are priced right still fly into escrow within days.  However, the increase in inventory and decline in sales can not be ignored...especially when you consider that rates are lower today than they were in April-June.  I can definitely say that the market has shifted from a seller's market to a more neutral market.  The next 3-6 months will be very interesting as we will find out who the motivated sellers are and the ones that are fishing for a sucker.  I just PRAY that the gov't doesn't come up with a home buyer tax credit 2.0 strategy if they see the real estate market softening up.   ???
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 16, 2010, 09:04:29 AM
Overall, do you see softening in prices?

Based on my Redfin/IR2 updates and my daily perusal of various real estate sites... it seems like prices are coming down. Not as much as I'd like but the additional inventory is making it harder for people to keep their listings at above comps.

I also see a lot of shorts getting delisted and relisted... or falling out of escrow... which like you said, is probably based on bank/appraisal issues.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on August 16, 2010, 09:49:14 AM
There are appraisal issues out there, but some banks are getting realistic. Too bad equity sellers aren't. We had an out of Irvine area property appraise 30k off of the $630k selling price. Per the appraiser there were offers up to $635k. It's possible that some of them had larger down payments than our buyer. The bank holding the property gave up the ghost and lowered the price to the appraisal just to move the property along. This was done without a review appraisal by either party. Talk about a good move for all parties involved. On the other side of the spectrum I've had buyers over pay for properties simply because they feel the value is there, despite what an appraiser says.

All markets have hit an air pocket. If you are a Realtor and have not come to the Irvine Area Broker's Preview held each week at JT Schmidts (sp?) in the District, come on by. It's quite the eye opener. Agents will pitch their tired listings with commonplace phrases like "it's priced well to the market. I just don't understand why we don't have an offer yet" or "Yes, my seller is not in synch with market prices but we're still hoping to get an offer soon". Hope, as they say, is not a plan for success. I go to this event, and others like it for business purposes. Every so often I also wonder if I go because it's akin to driving past a multiple fatality accident on the 405. You don't want to look, but are compelled to do so.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: abcd1234 on August 16, 2010, 09:53:48 AM
I am not in the market to buy- but I like to see what's going on in University Park and Woodbridge.  I think UP still is pretty hot- especially those 1-level units.  Woodbridge to me is still WTF pricing- esp the 1-level homes.   

There was that auction house http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/40-Meadowgrass-92604/home/4689143 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/40-Meadowgrass-92604/home/4689143) that had a really low price, then now pending.  I wonder what it closes at.

Hopefully it will make these listings with WTF prices come down to earth:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/14-Woodsorrel-92604/home/4691318 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/14-Woodsorrel-92604/home/4691318)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4-Ponderosa-92604/home/4690082 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4-Ponderosa-92604/home/4690082)

What do you think these houses should be priced at?  They're asking TRock type $/sq feet.  And even TRock isn't really getting that pricing anymore.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 16, 2010, 11:20:59 AM
Woodsorrel has a nicer lot compared to Ponderosa.

In my opinion, the premium on these are the lot sizes and the ability to add on. Not sure if that is actually what is driving the listing prices but considering 2-story homes in Woodbridge with smaller lots are trading at the same price, that probably has something to do with it.

The central location, pools/lakes/parks of WBridge seems to keep it higher than surrounding 'hoods... but then again... there are many tracts in Irvine that are still at peak.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 16, 2010, 03:57:42 PM
I am not in the market to buy- but I like to see what's going on in University Park and Woodbridge.  I think UP still is pretty hot- especially those 1-level units.  Woodbridge to me is still WTF pricing- esp the 1-level homes.   

There was that auction house http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/40-Meadowgrass-92604/home/4689143 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/40-Meadowgrass-92604/home/4689143) that had a really low price, then now pending.  I wonder what it closes at.

Hopefully it will make these listings with WTF prices come down to earth:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/14-Woodsorrel-92604/home/4691318 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/14-Woodsorrel-92604/home/4691318)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4-Ponderosa-92604/home/4690082 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4-Ponderosa-92604/home/4690082)

What do you think these houses should be priced at?  They're asking TRock type $/sq feet.  And even TRock isn't really getting that pricing anymore.
There's no way that comps support the pricing for 14 Woodsorrel or 4 Ponderosa.  The closest closed comp is 9 Teal which closed for $640k within the past 2 months.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 16, 2010, 04:02:49 PM
Overall, do you see softening in prices?

Based on my Redfin/IR2 updates and my daily perusal of various real estate sites... it seems like prices are coming down. Not as much as I'd like but the additional inventory is making it harder for people to keep their listings at above comps.

I also see a lot of shorts getting delisted and relisted... or falling out of escrow... which like you said, is probably based on bank/appraisal issues.
Do I see a little softening?  Yes, but not much because as I stated....any nice property that is priced around comps goes into escrow quickly.  One of my buyers had an eye on 101 Mosaic (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/101-Mosaic-92603/home/5902918) and we were gonna give it a little time before we submitted an offer because it was priced about $30-$40/sf over comps but obviously someone liked it enough to pull the trigger quickly.  Prices are coming down, but they are coming down from the Stupid WTF price levels down to WTF prices levels.  When the tide rolls in after the selling season is over, we'll find out who are real motivated sellers are and who the ones that were looking for a sucker are.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 16, 2010, 04:06:54 PM
So there is an SWTF level of prices? I always wondered what they called those.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 16, 2010, 04:07:48 PM
There are appraisal issues out there, but some banks are getting realistic. Too bad equity sellers aren't. We had an out of Irvine area property appraise 30k off of the $630k selling price. Per the appraiser there were offers up to $635k. It's possible that some of them had larger down payments than our buyer. The bank holding the property gave up the ghost and lowered the price to the appraisal just to move the property along. This was done without a review appraisal by either party. Talk about a good move for all parties involved. On the other side of the spectrum I've had buyers over pay for properties simply because they feel the value is there, despite what an appraiser says.

All markets have hit an air pocket. If you are a Realtor and have not come to the Irvine Area Broker's Preview held each week at JT Schmidts (sp?) in the District, come on by. It's quite the eye opener. Agents will pitch their tired listings with commonplace phrases like "it's priced well to the market. I just don't understand why we don't have an offer yet" or "Yes, my seller is not in synch with market prices but we're still hoping to get an offer soon". Hope, as they say, is not a plan for success. I go to this event, and others like it for business purposes. Every so often I also wonder if I go because it's akin to driving past a multiple fatality accident on the 405. You don't want to look, but are compelled to do so.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.
Ahh yes, the HOPE word....unfortunately HOPE doesn't help a property appraise, it's the closed comps that do.  I might have to drop by one of these days and be the voice of reason throwing some cold water on their HOPE plan.  haha
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 16, 2010, 04:10:08 PM
So there is an SWTF level of prices? I always wondered what they called those.
Well, what else would you call listings that are priced 10%-20% ABOVE comps?  It's the best thing I could come up with because they are just a complete wait of time for everyone.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 16, 2010, 04:18:33 PM
What gets me about 101 Mosaic is it originally sold for $1.1m+ in 2004. It will probably close for $1.4m+ today.

Forget 1999 prices, we can't even get down to 2004... need to go dig up that thread on the IHB where people were saying QH was going to get not only back to their original 2004 prices but lower. Bleh.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gaab on August 16, 2010, 04:52:07 PM
I'm not understanding the dynamics of the Irvine market.  Are people "buying the dips"  hoping for a quick gain - or - is there really THAT much interest / demand / in Irvine ?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 16, 2010, 05:26:58 PM
I'm not understanding the dynamics of the Irvine market.  Are people "buying the dips"  hoping for a quick gain - or - is there really THAT much interest / demand / in Irvine ?
Well, my guess (based upon the Irvine buyers that I'm working with) is that most buyers are buying for the longer term and not to make a quick buck.  I'm pretty confident that there would be more Irvine buyers out there if price levels declined from today.   That is one of the reasons why I believe that the downside risk for price declines in Irvine is limited.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: whatever on August 16, 2010, 06:34:54 PM
What gets me about 101 Mosaic is it originally sold for $1.1m+ in 2004. It will probably close for $1.4m+ today.

Forget 1999 prices, we can't even get down to 2004... need to go dig up that thread on the IHB where people were saying QH was going to get not only back to their original 2004 prices but lower. Bleh.

I miss the daily updates people posted from foreclosure radar with all of the blue and red dots and comments like this one:  http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/4876/P25/#103491.  It made me feel that Irvine had a chance of returning to normal.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 16, 2010, 07:24:34 PM
What gets me about 101 Mosaic is it originally sold for $1.1m+ in 2004. It will probably close for $1.4m+ today.

Forget 1999 prices, we can't even get down to 2004... need to go dig up that thread on the IHB where people were saying QH was going to get not only back to their original 2004 prices but lower. Bleh.

I miss the daily updates people posted from foreclosure radar with all of the blue and red dots and comments like this one:  http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/4876/P25/#103491.  It made me feel that Irvine had a chance of returning to normal.
The problem is that even though the Green and Blue dots are growing in number and piling up, the banks are very slow in actually auctioning off the properties.  In the past 7 weeks, I've tracked about 40 properties that my partner and I were interested in buying and ALL 40 got postponed.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 20, 2010, 03:59:06 PM
59 Bamboo.....a short sale listing with a decent price, but I got a kid out of reading the agent-to-agent comments:

"PLEASE READ: AS OF 1:00PM 8/19 I HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS OFFERS BELOW THE ASKING PRICE. SO IF YOU HAVE AN OFFER YOU WOULD LIKE US TO CONSIDER IT MUST BE ABOVE ASKING PRICE OR DON'T BOTHER. PLEASE MAKE YOUR OFFERS SUBJECT TO INTERIOR INSPECTION. I WILL HAVE AN OPEN HOUSE 8/29 SO YOU CAN PREVIEW THE HOME THEN. ----------------------------------------------- Seller is RE Licensed. This is a short sale subject to lender approval. Any comm discounted by Lender to be equally split by agents. No lockbox. No more showings. "
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 05, 2010, 04:03:44 AM
Looks like there is some softening in the Irvine market, but mostly on the condo and older home side.  Pricing is slightly down (2-3%) from the recent peak earlier this spring, but newer properties (1990 and later) that are priced at or near comps that show well still go into escrow within a week.  Irvine is holding up better than other cities like Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, Anaheim Hills, and Yorba Linda who have also seen a rise in inventory but have experienced a larger decline in the number of sales which has pushed prices down 5-10% from the spring.  The market is currently neutral with about 5 months worth of inventory on the market, we'll have to get above 7 months worth of inventory before enter into a buyer's market.  The level of inventory peaked out around 900 homes in late August and is now beginning to come down now that we are no longer in the "selling" season.  The decline in the number of sales has stabilized for now.  Now that TIC is done selling out homes in Woodbury and Woodbury East, they will begin to throw their marketing/PR muscle at Portola Springs. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: blocks on November 22, 2010, 11:37:54 PM
Any one has updates? Very appreciated.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 23, 2010, 10:07:44 PM
Been kinda busy lately so please excuse the delay.  I have updated my schedule with the home sale data for October.  Homes sales in Oct. 2010 declined by about 37% from the same time last year (121 sales vs. 192 sales).  The sales for Nov. 2010 through the 22nd are at 119 so we'll have a month-over-month increase in sales volume but there will be a decline from the number of sales in Nov. of 2009.  Prices continue to decline slowly, especially for attached condos.  Even the momentum for new home sales is beginning to slow down.  For instance, current most all new home developments are offering a buyer's agent co-op commission (ranging from $10,000 up to 3%).  One of my buyers was even told by a builder that they are "somewhat negotiable" on their prices and would be willing to provide a credit for closing and/or a credit for some upgrades.  That being said, newer single family residences (1990+) that are priced at/near comps get multiple offers and go into escrow within about a week (examples are 29 Boulder Creek Way in West Irvine and 8 Napa in Northpark).  Inventory levels have declined since the beginning of November from the mid-800s to 755 as of 11/23/10.  This decline will continue until early-to-mid January when inventory levels typically begin to increase.  I would say that the single family home market is neutral while the condo is leaning towards being a buyers market.  Due to the expiration of the tax credits and possible increasing interest rates, I feel that the TIC 2011 Home Collection will not have the same success as their 2010 Collection had.  I think they'll begin to offer buyer agent co-op commissions across the board and other possible incentives like credits for design center upgrades to keep sales going.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 05, 2011, 11:37:34 PM
I have updated my schedule with the home sale data for November and December 2010.  Homes sales in Nov. 2010 declined by about 5% from the same time last year (162 sales vs. 171 sales).  The sales for Dec. 2010 declined by about 21% from the same time last year (148 sales vs. 187 sales).  Inventory levels have been declining since August but at a much slower pace than in 2009.  We'll begin to see inventory levels are to begin to increase in late Jan. to mid Feb.  It'll be interesting to see if we can cross over 900+ homes as we get into the Spring and Summer.  Prices seem to be flat to slightly down with room for negotiation.  Builder incentives has been to increase over the past month or so and they are willing to negotiate so don't settle for list price.  For example, Primrose used to only offer a $15k buyer agent commission and now it is up to 3% based upon their MLS listings and Santa Barbara who used to not have any buyer agent commission is now offering $15k.  As you can see the sales slowdown has hit the condo market a lot more than the SFR market.  Again, SFRs that are priced right and show well still go into escrow within a week or so.  As for interest rates, they popped up about 1/2% from late November/early December to around 4.75%.  If rates keep heading above 5% that may add to the downside press for homes.  2011 will definitely be an interesting year.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: CTNative on January 06, 2011, 09:29:36 AM
I completely agree.

However, I also wonder about the flip side of the coin.  I wonder if the current housing craziness is created partially by the TIC.  Before the 2010 Woodbury collection, the market was still relatively on the down side.  The short sales were actually priced and sold like short sale.  There were no crazy bidding wars on resale homes.  It just seems that starting at beginning of 2010, things started getting crazy.  Maybe it's coincedence and TIC got lucky with the timing or maybe TIC put people into a buying mood with the 2010 Woodbury collection and drove market higher.

I wonder this too. We are all focused on Irvine, but what is happening in the rest of Orange County? If this gravy train TIC sees is real, why aren't developers snatching up land all over OC and throwing up competitive developments, undercutting Irvine on sale prices and skimming off some gravy?

Those developments could skip the HOA and maybe one of the association fees, have lower taxes AND a lower sale price and really do some serious skimming of cash buyers. I KNOW Irvine is a nice place, yes yes...but still, seeing the exact same quality and size house on a wee bit more land for 25% less and lower carrying costs....surely...there would be takers.

So since that is NOT happening, that I am aware of...then it makes Irvine look like an anomaly and something else is in play here.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 06, 2011, 11:46:41 AM
Summit Ridge in Lake Forest was a new development that undercut Irvine SFRs by quite a bit.

The location itself is fine, just the layout of the neighborhood was a bit of a negative. Yet... it did not sell as fast as any of the New Home Collection... I'm not even sure if they have sold through yet... and they only had less than 30 homes.

Glenwood in Aliso Viejo has been open for years... their prices are also lower than Irvine's yet do not move at the same pace.

Shappell has several projects in Laguna Niguel... also not moving as fast.

Even test's beloved Columbus Grove/Square couldn't match the sales pace (not even sure here... just from my own observation).

Irvine is like a unicorn... everyone wants one because they think they are magical but in reality it's just a horse with an antler dysfunction. Yet people will pay for one just because that's what they want ("Irvine is not for everyone").
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on January 06, 2011, 01:29:00 PM
Summit CREST in Lake Forest was a new development that undercut Irvine SFRs by quite a bit.

The location itself is fine, just the layout of the neighborhood was a bit of a negative. Yet... it did not sell as fast as any of the New Home Collection... I'm not even sure if they have sold through yet... and they only had less than 30 homes.


Looks like they were down to two homes as of 12/8/10.

http://www.vandaele.com/only-2-homes-remain-in-summit-crest/
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 06, 2011, 02:11:41 PM
Thanks... Crest, Ridge, Rock, Turtle, Shady... hard to keep it straight.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: CTNative on January 06, 2011, 10:23:56 PM
Irvine is like a unicorn... everyone wants one because they think they are magical but in reality it's just a horse with an antler dysfunction. Yet people will pay for one just because that's what they want ("Irvine is not for everyone").

...had me crackin' up with that one.  :) But yeah, I get what you're sayin' (I read your other post on that yesterday).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 03, 2011, 10:35:17 PM
Homes sales in Jan. 2011 actually increased by over 17% from the same time last year (110 sales vs. 94 sales).  Inventory levels have been essentially flat for the entire month of January, but you can bet they will be increasing once we move into the Spring.  Then we have all the new home developments that will be popping up from Portola to Stonegate to Laguna Crossing.  Prices still seem to be flat in January with home prices settling around what recent comps closed around.  The big wild card will be what happens if interest rates on the 30-year mortgage cross into the 5s from the 4s.  Currently we are on the edge of 4.875% and 5%.  It'll be interesting to see what happens if rates creep into the mid-5s as we move into the Spring and Summer.  Will builders start to throw incentives at perspective buyers to lure them in?  Will sellers of re-sale homes begin to lower their prices as inventory and interest rates increase?  It'll be very interesting to see what happens.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on February 04, 2011, 08:47:42 AM
Hoping for more inventory soon  :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on February 04, 2011, 05:15:04 PM
Homes sales in Jan. 2011 actually increased by over 17% from the same time last year (110 sales vs. 94 sales).  Inventory levels have been essentially flat for the entire month of January, but you can bet they will be increasing once we move into the Spring.  Then we have all the new home developments that will be popping up from Portola to Stonegate to Laguna Crossing.  Prices still seem to be flat in January with home prices settling around what recent comps closed around.  The big wild card will be what happens if interest rates on the 30-year mortgage cross into the 5s from the 4s.  Currently we are on the edge of 4.875% and 5%.  It'll be interesting to see what happens if rates creep into the mid-5s as we move into the Spring and Summer.  Will builders start to throw incentives at perspective buyers to lure them in?  Will sellers of re-sale homes begin to lower their prices as inventory and interest rates increase?  It'll be very interesting to see what happens.

im curious to see the rate impact myself. I keep a spreadsheet of properties that interest me and the wife and i went back to run the payments that were previously calculated using 4.25% with current rates of 4.75% and the payment jumps 150-200/month.  For those folks stretching themselves already its just going to make it that much tougher. It will exert downward pressure - IHO will try to convince us otherwise.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 04, 2011, 05:21:50 PM
It will exert downward pressure - IHO will try to convince us otherwise.
I don't doubt the downward pressure, I just don't think the decrease will be **directly** proportional to the change in payments based on the rate increase. At least that's what my math says.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 05, 2011, 09:47:13 AM
After Friday's run up of bond yields, we are into the 5s and the only way to get into the 4s on a 30-year fixed is to buy the rate down. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: IndieDev on February 05, 2011, 05:36:10 PM
Beat me to it. We might see mid-5s this year. A return to normalcy.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 05, 2011, 05:42:53 PM
Beat me to it. We might see mid-5s this year. A return to normalcy.
I'm as fast as lightening man.  Btw, I think one of my buddy's might have seen you at the Sevilla Phase 2 release earlier this morning...were you there?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: IndieDev on February 05, 2011, 08:10:23 PM
I was there during opening day. One of the few white/asian couples in a sea of asian/asian. I kind of liked the floor plans for 2 & 3, but then I found out only 4 or 5 lots would have a driveway. That kind of sunk it for me.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 17, 2011, 01:46:48 AM
Been a bit busy with tax season the past few months, but here is my data for Feb. and March 2011.  We remain in a neutral market with about 5-6 months of inventory.  Inventory levels continue to grow slowly but surely as we enter the selling season. Pricing is still flat to slightly down.  A handful of homes that my buyers have their eyes on had sellers who listed at very optimistic prices so it's a waiting game until those sellers realize that they'll need to lower their prices in order for them to sell their homes.  The attached condo market remains weaker than the SFR market.  One example is 25 Torrey Pine in Northwood II which sold for about $15k-$20k over comps and had 12 bidders.  So the homes with good floorplans and locations continue to sell quickly if they are prices at or near comps.  I'm sensing that the pace of the new home sales is not going to be as successful as the previous year without the tax incentives.  Sales for Feb. and March 2011 were both below the 2010 figures but we won't get an apples-to-apples comparison until July since that's when the tax credits ended.  Interest rates dipped back down below 5% and are hovering around 4.75-4.875% rate for a 30-year mortgage. By the summertime, I think that Irvine Pac...errr TIC will begin to offer broker co-ops and buyer incentives to sell their homes.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 05, 2011, 10:53:36 PM
Here is my data for April and May 2011.  We remain in a neutral market with about 5-months worth of inventory.  April 2011 sales vs. April 2010 sales were flat at 195 while May 2011 sales vs. May 2010 sales were down about 16%.  Inventory is continuing to inch up slowly but the quality of the new inventory isn't that desirable.  Also, it seems like many of the new listings are sellers asking WTF prices which will likely remain on the market collecting dust.  Makes me wonder if those sellers even want to seller their homes or whether they are looking for a sucker to pay their outrageous price.  We have seen that sales of new TIC homes has gone slower than they had expected with them offering broker incentives.  The pace of sales of their new homes over the next few months will dictate how kind of other buyer incentives they will throw at potential buyers to get them under contract.  On the mortgage front, mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage have come down from 5% to 5.125% down to 4.375% to 4.50% last week which may provide a little tailwind for perspective buyers. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 12, 2011, 09:41:43 PM
Attached you'll find the Irvine sales data for June 2011.  June sales were up about 17% from last month and basically flat from the prior year, hitting over 200 for the first time since June of last year.  Inventory levels came down about 4% from the end of May.  The market is still neutral but if sales continue to be as strong as they were in June and inventory levels remain flat or fall slightly we'll be back in a seller's market.  I would say that prices have softened a bit since last year as overpriced listings just linger on the market collecting dust.  Properties that are priced right/attractively like 2 Miners Trl and 5 Copper Hill get multiple offers (including cash offers) within the first week.  The pace of new home sales over at Stonegate and Portola Springs seem to be going OK while new home sales at Laguna Altura are sucking wind (probably due to the high pricing.  There are plenty of buyers out there looking for Irvine homes but some of them are waiting for the right property to come out at the right price.  In terms of mortgages, we are back to 4.375% to 4.50% after a blip up last week.  If the European debt crisis continues, we may see 4% for the 30-year fixed again in short order.  I do have a handful of buyers who are considering alternative financing options such as 7-year ARM loans (around 3.25%) and 5/5-year ARM loans (around 3.25%) versus going with the traditional 30-year fixed loan option.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 13, 2011, 10:09:15 AM
Multiple times, IndieDev has posted a Redfin chart with the prices for Irvine trending down and he always adds that it's going lower... I read in the OCReg that prices have actually gone up a little this month and so I checked Redfin and found this:

(http://www.cdn-redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small/6/9361/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png)

Now I'm not calling a bottom or saying that prices are going to go up (personally, I still think they will go down)... I'm just trying to illustrate how difficult it is to predict pricing, even armed with the finest fundamental know-how in the universe.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 13, 2011, 10:17:58 AM
Multiple times, IndieDev has posted a Redfin chart with the prices for Irvine trending down and he always adds that it's going lower... I read in the OCReg that prices have actually gone up a little this month and so I checked Redfin and found this:

(http://www.cdn-redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small/6/9361/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png)

Now I'm not calling a bottom or saying that prices are going to go up (personally, I still think they will go down)... I'm just trying to illustrate how difficult it is to predict pricing, even armed with the finest fundamental know-how in the universe.
I wouldn't doubt it...you had strong sales along with lower inventory levels coupled with mortgage rates coming down from the highs in March/April.  The numbers don't lie and neither does the fact that when my buyers bid on properties that are priced right they have to deal with multiple counter offer situations.  The Irvine market has and remains very resilient and that's due to a strong demand.  Can that change over time?  Sure, but it's not the case today.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 11, 2011, 11:14:45 PM
Here's the Irvine sales data for July and August 2011.  July sales were down slightly at 2% from last July but down over 22% from June 2011.  However, looks like there was a rebound in sales in August....August 2011 sales came in at 190 which was 13% higher from July 2011 and about 9% higher than last August.  Is this a result of buyers wanting to lock in the higher jumbo conforming loan limits that are set to expire shortly or taking advantage of the drop in mortgage rates?  I guess we'll find out in the next few months.

Inventory levels came down about 4% from the end of August 2011.  The market is still neutral at around 4.5 months worth of supply but there is some evidence of some price softening here and there.  That being said, properties that show well and have good floor plan priced around comps are still going to escrow quickly and/or getting multiple offers.

In terms of mortgages, we are now near 4% for conforming (417k or lower) 30-year fixed loans while 5 and 7 year ARM loans can be had in the mid-to-high 2% range.  If the European debt crisis continues to get worse, we may get a 30-year fixed rate with a 3 in front of it.  Several of my buyers are considering 5, 7, and 10 year ARM loans versus the 30-year fixed loan as they aren't too concerned about higher interest rates in the future.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: AliceT on September 14, 2011, 07:52:37 AM
I would think people would be afraid of ARM loans after the housing crisis? I think rates will stay the same or perhaps go a little lower over the next two years but eventually one would expect them to rise as our economy eventually rebounds. I know when I move out there in the next month or two, I'll be going with a fixed APR loan. I just think an ARM is too much of a risk.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 14, 2011, 08:08:43 AM
I would think people would be afraid of ARM loans after the housing crisis? I think rates will stay the same or perhaps go a little lower over the next two years but eventually one would expect them to rise as our economy eventually rebounds. I know when I move out there in the next month or two, I'll be going with a fixed APR loan. I just think an ARM is too much of a risk.
ARM loans have been around for many, many years before the housing bubble.  When some buyers hear about ARM loans, they think about those toxic Option ARMs where it gave people the option to pay less than the interest amount each month while increasing the loan balance.  It was this and loose credit (i.e. giving anyone who has a pulse a loan) that was one of the main reasons for the housing bubble.  One of the things that buyers have to consider is what their future expectation of inflation/fed fund rates might in determining whether they get an ARM or not.  The reality is that people on average sell their homes every 6-7 years so why get a 30-year fixed mortgage and pay a higher interest rate if you'll never benefit from it?  There are pros and there are cons with ARM loans and buyers need to determine their comfort level and risk tolerance with those loans.  You'd be surprised to know that most buyers don't really understand how ARM loans work and because of that they automatically default to selecting a 30-year fixed mortgage.  Btw, good luck on the move to California?  Where are you moving from?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: oakcreekrenter on September 15, 2011, 10:49:53 AM
One of the things that buyers have to consider is what their future expectation of inflation/fed fund rates might in determining whether they get an ARM or not. 
...
You'd be surprised to know that most buyers don't really understand how ARM loans work and because of that they automatically default to selecting a 30-year fixed mortgage. 

I think you summed up part of the problem in your post.  How many buyers have the ability to understand inflation expectations, much less how it will affect their ARM rate in the future?  Yet the people most likely to get ARM loans, and in fact would probably not have qualified if not for teaser ARM rates, were probably the ones who least likely understood them. 

ARM loans have their place, but only for educated buyers.  That means they should probably be relegated to a niche product, not a mainstream loan product, and the banks should stop marketing them as an affordability product.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 15, 2011, 11:13:41 AM
One of the things that buyers have to consider is what their future expectation of inflation/fed fund rates might in determining whether they get an ARM or not. 
...
You'd be surprised to know that most buyers don't really understand how ARM loans work and because of that they automatically default to selecting a 30-year fixed mortgage. 

I think you summed up part of the problem in your post.  How many buyers have the ability to understand inflation expectations, much less how it will affect their ARM rate in the future?  Yet the people most likely to get ARM loans, and in fact would probably not have qualified if not for teaser ARM rates, were probably the ones who least likely understood them. 

ARM loans have their place, but only for educated buyers.  That means they should probably be relegated to a niche product, not a mainstream loan product, and the banks should stop marketing them as an affordability product.
You're making some incorrect assumptions about my buyers.  All of those buyers educated themselves on the pros and cons of getting the ARM loans and know exactly what they got themselves into...eyes wide open.  One buyer will pay off the loan in 5-8 years, another buyer got a starter home and will sell the home in 7-8 years, and another buyer is taking the additional savings and investing it.  All of the my buyers who got the ARM loans easily qualified for loans at the higher 30-year fixed rate...trust me when I say that none of them had to stretch financially to make their purchase.  Other developed countries banks do not offer 15-year or 30-year fixed loans and the only thing you can get are shorter term ARM type loans.  Most ARM loans re-set based upon a 1-year LIBOR rate plus 2.25% (with a cap) so the adjustments will not be based upon longer term interest rates in the futures but more where Fed Funds rates are.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: freedomcm on September 15, 2011, 11:22:11 AM
It sounds as if your buyers are "educated buyers" that oak describes as good prospects for ARMs, no?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 15, 2011, 11:25:26 AM
It sounds as if your buyers are "educated buyers" that oak describes as good prospects for ARMs, no?
Yeah, they educated themselves and I assisted them in putting together scenario analysis spreadsheets by showing best case, status quo, bad, and worst case.  I had a ultra conservative buyer who opted for a 7-year ARM who I'd never would guessed would be interested in an ARM loan.  The key for all those folks was to analysis the "risk" versus the "reward" of going with an ARM loan versus a fixed rate loan.  I do agree with Oak that ARM loans are not for everyone and if you are using to qualify for a purchase because you can't get their using a 30-year fixed loan then you shouldn't be getting an ARM loan.  The RE crash has gave ARM loans a bad name when it was really the Option ARM loan that was the toxic loan program.  Regular amortizing ARM loans are just not that scary when you understand how they work.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: rkp on September 15, 2011, 03:30:41 PM
how come ARMs are becoming more popular these days with more conservative buyers?  with 30-year fixeds so cheap, i dont understand the sudden interest in a 7 year ARM.  i know ARMs became more mainstream as affordability products but now it seems like conservative folks are going for them and they are still advertised heavily.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: New Name on September 16, 2011, 10:00:43 AM
I know for myself I figure why pay 4.5% when I can pay 3% and will be putting that extra 1.5% down on principal (so basically making the same payment I would have made anyways.  I know for some, they would rather take that difference and invest that because they think they will get a better rate on their money.  I'm not saying they won't, its just not my thing.

 For the adjustment risk, like Trojan said above, you have to evaluate yourself.  My goal is to get a much smaller loan than I can afford from the start and therefore pay it off quicker.  Say I am in year 5 or 6 and rates are starting to go higher and higher than I would probably even put more into principal  Therefore, when it does come time to adjust hopefully the balance will be quite small so interest won't really matter that much (since its calculated based on principal)

edit: I shouldn't say I am getting a much smaller loan than I can afford since that is pretty subjective.  I should say much smaller than i could qualify for. IMO I could probably qualify for a loan that is higher than i could afford.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Nous on September 16, 2011, 12:47:42 PM
how come ARMs are becoming more popular these days with more conservative buyers?  with 30-year fixeds so cheap, i dont understand the sudden interest in a 7 year ARM.  i know ARMs became more mainstream as affordability products but now it seems like conservative folks are going for them and they are still advertised heavily.

ARMs are cheaper and rates probably aren't going up soon enough to make it more in the favour of fixed rate anytime soon.  Housing will have to recover a lot before rates will really jump.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 16, 2011, 12:57:58 PM
I think there is also a difference in the type of ARMs offered.

I remember that before OARMs, most ARMs were the yearly or even monthly adjustable type. Given that type of product, a fixed is better because of that volatility. But a 5/1 (or even better, a 7/1) gives you the stability of a fixed and enough time to refi (or move) if rates jump. And I think USC mentioned a lifetime cap of 7.x% which is quite manageable for anyone who had mortgages in 90s/early 00s since that was the prevalent "good" rate.

Interestingly enough, for anyone who used an OARM more for flexibility than affordability, they are in a really good position now, they can refi out to a lower fixed rate or may even be paying lower than current rates based on whatever index/margin their product is.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 16, 2011, 01:06:51 PM
I think there is also a difference in the type of ARMs offered.

I remember that before OARMs, most ARMs were the yearly or even monthly adjustable type. Given that type of product, a fixed is better because of that volatility. But a 5/1 (or even better, a 7/1) gives you the stability of a fixed and enough time to refi (or move) if rates jump. And I think USC mentioned a lifetime cap of 7.x% which is quite manageable for anyone who had mortgages in 90s/early 00s since that was the prevalent "good" rate.

Interestingly enough, for anyone who used an OARM more for flexibility than affordability, they are in a really good position now, they can refi out to a lower fixed rate or may even be paying lower than current rates based on whatever index/margin their product is.
If your rate adjusted on an ARM loan today, your interest rate would be 3.125% (2.25% margin plus .875% for the 1-year LIBOR rounded up).  Also, the loan re-amortizes so if you've been paying more towards the balance the payment will go down further. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: so_scared on September 16, 2011, 02:40:25 PM
I know for myself I figure why pay 4.5% when I can pay 3% and will be putting that extra 1.5% down on principal (so basically making the same payment I would have made anyways.  I know for some, they would rather take that difference and invest that because they think they will get a better rate on their money.  I'm not saying they won't, its just not my thing.

 For the adjustment risk, like Trojan said above, you have to evaluate yourself.  My goal is to get a much smaller loan than I can afford from the start and therefore pay it off quicker.  Say I am in year 5 or 6 and rates are starting to go higher and higher than I would probably even put more into principal  Therefore, when it does come time to adjust hopefully the balance will be quite small so interest won't really matter that much (since its calculated based on principal)

edit: I shouldn't say I am getting a much smaller loan than I can afford since that is pretty subjective.  I should say much smaller than i could qualify for. IMO I could probably qualify for a loan that is higher than i could afford.

at the current rate difference of about 125, the after tax delta ends up being 81 basis points delta in rate for first 5 years. (assuming 35% combined marginal rate) After that, who knows.

Totally understand the argument about not living in same home for more than 5 to 7 years on average but if rates are higher in the future and you have to rent it out, you have lower cost with the 30 year fixed or you even have the option to "wrap" the mortgage and provide your buyers with a below market rate, making your home a more attractive purchase. (something some sellers did during the 80s where rates were crazy high).

Given the high volatility of interest rates in last 5, 10, 20, 30 years, 81 bps for a fixed rate seems like an awfully cheap insurance policy.



Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 16, 2011, 04:00:26 PM
I know for myself I figure why pay 4.5% when I can pay 3% and will be putting that extra 1.5% down on principal (so basically making the same payment I would have made anyways.  I know for some, they would rather take that difference and invest that because they think they will get a better rate on their money.  I'm not saying they won't, its just not my thing.

 For the adjustment risk, like Trojan said above, you have to evaluate yourself.  My goal is to get a much smaller loan than I can afford from the start and therefore pay it off quicker.  Say I am in year 5 or 6 and rates are starting to go higher and higher than I would probably even put more into principal  Therefore, when it does come time to adjust hopefully the balance will be quite small so interest won't really matter that much (since its calculated based on principal)

edit: I shouldn't say I am getting a much smaller loan than I can afford since that is pretty subjective.  I should say much smaller than i could qualify for. IMO I could probably qualify for a loan that is higher than i could afford.

at the current rate difference of about 125, the after tax delta ends up being 81 basis points delta in rate for first 5 years. (assuming 35% combined marginal rate) After that, who knows.

Totally understand the argument about not living in same home for more than 5 to 7 years on average but if rates are higher in the future and you have to rent it out, you have lower cost with the 30 year fixed or you even have the option to "wrap" the mortgage and provide your buyers with a below market rate, making your home a more attractive purchase. (something some sellers did during the 80s where rates were crazy high).

Given the high volatility of interest rates in last 5, 10, 20, 30 years, 81 bps for a fixed rate seems like an awfully cheap insurance policy.
I believe that the only kind of fixed rate loan that is assumable is an FHA loan (I could be wrong).  I also believe that most ARM loans are also assumable.  Again, each buyer need to weighs the pros/cons and look at their own specific situation to determine whether an ARM loan is an option that they should select.  For those that have a goal of paying off their home in 10 years or less, an ARM loan (especially a 7-year ARM) is a no brainer.  That being said, the majority of buyers will probably opt for a fixed rate loan product.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on September 16, 2011, 07:03:23 PM
FHA's are assumable. VA's are for Veterans. ARM loans are assumable only after the fixed period ends and it changes to an annual adjustable rate mortgage.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: freedomcm on September 17, 2011, 11:27:50 PM
SGIP, what is the cost penalty for an FHA nowdays if you put 20% down to avoid the PMI?

higher rate?  higher origination?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: villagepeople on September 20, 2011, 02:43:49 PM
SGIP, what is the cost penalty for an FHA nowdays if you put 20% down to avoid the PMI?

higher rate?  higher origination?

from what i read and from what my co-worker, who just bought a home via fha... you have to pay the pmi for at least 5 years, regardless of how much down you put... if it has been more than 5 years AND you have 20% down then they will remove pmi.  (sgip please correct me if i'm wrong)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Nous on September 20, 2011, 07:04:08 PM
SGIP, what is the cost penalty for an FHA nowdays if you put 20% down to avoid the PMI?

higher rate?  higher origination?

from what i read and from what my co-worker, who just bought a home via fha... you have to pay the pmi for at least 5 years, regardless of how much down you put... if it has been more than 5 years AND you have 20% down then they will remove pmi.  (sgip please correct me if i'm wrong)

This is correct.  Only other way out is a refi.  FHA is 20% or 5 years whichever comes second.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 14, 2011, 12:12:57 AM
Attached you'll find the Irvine sales data for Sept. and Oct. 2011.  Sept. 2011 sales were basically flat with those in Sept. 2010 (157 vs. 159), but Oct. 2011 sales increased approx. 16.5% from Oct. 2010 (141 vs. 121).  Year-to-date, total sales through Oct. 2011 are down about 2% to 1,680 from 1,711 in 2010.  Inventory levels at the end of Oct. 2011 were down about 5% from the same time last year.  There is about a 5 month supply of homes on the market which is a neutral market.  That being said, it seems like prices are softening a bit.  Could this be because of the decrease of the jumbo conforming loan limit?  Well, I don't think it helped things.  From my own viewpoint, I had a few buyers hit the sidelines due to the lack of good inventory and to see how the European mess plays out in the next 3-6 months.  However, I did have a few buyers who were sitting on the fence jump into the market because of the super low interest rates.  So net-net, things seemed to have balanced out.  I am one of those buyers who is now ready to pull the trigger once the right home comes onto the market.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Nous on November 14, 2011, 12:01:42 PM
Attached you'll find the Irvine sales data for Sept. and Oct. 2011.  Sept. 2011 sales were basically flat with those in Sept. 2010 (157 vs. 159), but Oct. 2011 sales increased approx. 16.5% from Oct. 2010 (141 vs. 121).  Year-to-date, total sales through Oct. 2011 are down about 2% to 1,680 from 1,711 in 2010.  Inventory levels at the end of Oct. 2011 were down about 5% from the same time last year.  There is about a 5 month supply of homes on the market which is a neutral market.  That being said, it seems like prices are softening a bit.  Could this be because of the decrease of the jumbo conforming loan limit?  Well, I don't think it helped things.  From my own viewpoint, I had a few buyers hit the sidelines due to the lack of good inventory and to see how the European mess plays out in the next 3-6 months.  However, I did have a few buyers who were sitting on the fence jump into the market because of the super low interest rates.  So net-net, things seemed to have balanced out.  I am one of those buyers who is now ready to pull the trigger once the right home comes onto the market.

Prices are to high, free market is starting to kick in.  I'm surprised inventory is lowering so much, wonder if the foreclosure changes that happened recently will pick that back up or if the banks are still going to vice grip the market.  5 months of inventory that we can see, but what lurks in the shadows?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 14, 2011, 12:06:15 PM
Attached you'll find the Irvine sales data for Sept. and Oct. 2011.  Sept. 2011 sales were basically flat with those in Sept. 2010 (157 vs. 159), but Oct. 2011 sales increased approx. 16.5% from Oct. 2010 (141 vs. 121).  Year-to-date, total sales through Oct. 2011 are down about 2% to 1,680 from 1,711 in 2010.  Inventory levels at the end of Oct. 2011 were down about 5% from the same time last year.  There is about a 5 month supply of homes on the market which is a neutral market.  That being said, it seems like prices are softening a bit.  Could this be because of the decrease of the jumbo conforming loan limit?  Well, I don't think it helped things.  From my own viewpoint, I had a few buyers hit the sidelines due to the lack of good inventory and to see how the European mess plays out in the next 3-6 months.  However, I did have a few buyers who were sitting on the fence jump into the market because of the super low interest rates.  So net-net, things seemed to have balanced out.  I am one of those buyers who is now ready to pull the trigger once the right home comes onto the market.

Prices are to high, free market is starting to kick in.  I'm surprised inventory is lowering so much, wonder if the foreclosure changes that happened recently will pick that back up or if the banks are still going to vice grip the market.  5 months of inventory that we can see, but what lurks in the shadows?
The foreclosed inventory is still continuing to trickle into the market.  I wouldn't expect that huge wave of REOs to hit the market.  Banks will take their sweet time even though it will take a good 5-7+ years to clear out most of that distressed inventory from their books.  Other cities in Orange County have had prices come down a good bit since the end of last year's sugar rush of tax credits but Irvine prices were very sticky.  It seems now that prices in Irvine are beginning to drip down a bit.  You still have a lot of Sellers out there who are dreaming with their asking prices.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Nous on November 14, 2011, 12:12:56 PM
Attached you'll find the Irvine sales data for Sept. and Oct. 2011.  Sept. 2011 sales were basically flat with those in Sept. 2010 (157 vs. 159), but Oct. 2011 sales increased approx. 16.5% from Oct. 2010 (141 vs. 121).  Year-to-date, total sales through Oct. 2011 are down about 2% to 1,680 from 1,711 in 2010.  Inventory levels at the end of Oct. 2011 were down about 5% from the same time last year.  There is about a 5 month supply of homes on the market which is a neutral market.  That being said, it seems like prices are softening a bit.  Could this be because of the decrease of the jumbo conforming loan limit?  Well, I don't think it helped things.  From my own viewpoint, I had a few buyers hit the sidelines due to the lack of good inventory and to see how the European mess plays out in the next 3-6 months.  However, I did have a few buyers who were sitting on the fence jump into the market because of the super low interest rates.  So net-net, things seemed to have balanced out.  I am one of those buyers who is now ready to pull the trigger once the right home comes onto the market.

Prices are to high, free market is starting to kick in.  I'm surprised inventory is lowering so much, wonder if the foreclosure changes that happened recently will pick that back up or if the banks are still going to vice grip the market.  5 months of inventory that we can see, but what lurks in the shadows?
The foreclosed inventory is still continuing to trickle into the market.  I wouldn't expect that huge wave of REOs to hit the market.  Banks will take their sweet time even though it will take a good 5-7+ years to clear out most of that distressed inventory from their books.  Other cities in Orange County have had prices come down a good bit since the end of last year's sugar rush of tax credits but Irvine prices were very sticky.  It seems now that prices in Irvine are beginning to drip down a bit.  You still have a lot of Sellers out there who are dreaming with their asking prices.

Agreed, I guess my point is how accurate is saying 5 months of inventory when we know they are holding back.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 14, 2011, 12:21:55 PM
Attached you'll find the Irvine sales data for Sept. and Oct. 2011.  Sept. 2011 sales were basically flat with those in Sept. 2010 (157 vs. 159), but Oct. 2011 sales increased approx. 16.5% from Oct. 2010 (141 vs. 121).  Year-to-date, total sales through Oct. 2011 are down about 2% to 1,680 from 1,711 in 2010.  Inventory levels at the end of Oct. 2011 were down about 5% from the same time last year.  There is about a 5 month supply of homes on the market which is a neutral market.  That being said, it seems like prices are softening a bit.  Could this be because of the decrease of the jumbo conforming loan limit?  Well, I don't think it helped things.  From my own viewpoint, I had a few buyers hit the sidelines due to the lack of good inventory and to see how the European mess plays out in the next 3-6 months.  However, I did have a few buyers who were sitting on the fence jump into the market because of the super low interest rates.  So net-net, things seemed to have balanced out.  I am one of those buyers who is now ready to pull the trigger once the right home comes onto the market.

Prices are to high, free market is starting to kick in.  I'm surprised inventory is lowering so much, wonder if the foreclosure changes that happened recently will pick that back up or if the banks are still going to vice grip the market.  5 months of inventory that we can see, but what lurks in the shadows?
The foreclosed inventory is still continuing to trickle into the market.  I wouldn't expect that huge wave of REOs to hit the market.  Banks will take their sweet time even though it will take a good 5-7+ years to clear out most of that distressed inventory from their books.  Other cities in Orange County have had prices come down a good bit since the end of last year's sugar rush of tax credits but Irvine prices were very sticky.  It seems now that prices in Irvine are beginning to drip down a bit.  You still have a lot of Sellers out there who are dreaming with their asking prices.

Agreed, I guess my point is how accurate is saying 5 months of inventory when we know they are holding back.
Good point, but since we can't get a good handle of the amount of shadow inventory out there that we don't know about the best thing out there is to use what's listing on MLS.  Could the true number be 6 or 7 months worth of inventory?  Sure it could.  As long as rates stay around where they are, loan limits stay where they are, and the economy doesn't implode then prices in Irvine will be flattish to slightly down.  Obviously those less desirable areas will have more downside pressure on pricing than the most desirable areas.  The cash buyers are still out in force making up a good chunk of the market.  The next spring/summer selling season will be interesting.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: IndieDev on November 14, 2011, 04:18:54 PM
The pretender brigade is holding on for dear life. But will loan modifications, and 20 hours a week employment be enough to hold on? Tune in next Fall to see the thrilling conclusion.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 04, 2012, 07:51:45 PM
Here's the updated sales information through Feb. 2012.  Sales have been essentially flat except for Jan. 2012 which had a 23% increase in sales from Jan. 2011.  The really interesting thing that I've noticed is that inventory levels are getting back to the lows in late 2009.  For example, there were approx. 200 less homes for sale at the end of Feb. 2012 than there were in Feb. 2011.  I'll be interesting to see if the Spring and Summer selling seasons will bring a good amount of homes for sale.

From the buyers that have contacted me in the past 3-4 months, most of them state that they are looking to buy because rates are so low and many properties (outside of Irvine) are below rental parity.  Even in Irvine I'm beginning to see a handful of detached condos get down slightly below rental parity, mainly older condos in Woodbridge, Orangetree, and old Northwood.  Attached condos in Northpark and West Irvine are just slightly above rental parity.  I got a buyer into a Fannie Mae REO in Woodbridge where the condo is about 8-10% below rental parity (we got outbid of 2 cash buyer investors but Fannie Mae preferred to go with owner occupant over investors if they offer amounts aren't too far apart).

Interest rates continue to bounce around low-time lows between 3.75% and 4% for 30-year mortgages.  It seems like every time that rates want to creep above 4% they begin to drift back down.  There are several home owners out there who are tired of getting an interest rate of less than 1% of having their money sit in a savings account, money market, and/or CD and are beginning to look at buying a rental property to obtain a higher return on their money. 

On a side note, I actually purchased a detached single family home recently and just moved into it after doing some remodeling work (I'll post a separate thread all about it later).  Like I've been telling my buyers, if you intend to own for the longer term (7+ years) and it makes financial sense then it is decent time to buy.  My opinion is that we are closer to the bottom than we are to the top so I decided to put my money where my mouth is.  I'm just so glad to be out of that tiny TIC apartment and into a home with a driveway and a yard.  A BIG THANKS goes out to all my buyers out there for making it all possible.  :D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: WoodburyDad on March 04, 2012, 09:01:36 PM
Congrats on the purchase of your home
Did you buy in Irvine or someplace else?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 04, 2012, 09:11:10 PM
Congrats on the purchase of your home
Did you buy in Irvine or someplace else?
Thanks, I actually bought in Irvine.  I looked around in other cities...Aliso Viejo, Foothill Ranch, Lake Forest, Tustin Ranch, and Orange but Irvine turned out to make the most sense for me.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: WoodburyDad on March 04, 2012, 09:21:18 PM
Congrats on the purchase of your home
Did you buy in Irvine or someplace else?
Thanks, I actually bought in Irvine.  I looked around in other cities...Aliso Viejo, Foothill Ranch, Lake Forest, Tustin Ranch, and Orange but Irvine turned out to make the most sense for me.
Same for us but I also get where others are coming from as well
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 04, 2012, 09:28:02 PM
Congrats on the purchase of your home
Did you buy in Irvine or someplace else?
Thanks, I actually bought in Irvine.  I looked around in other cities...Aliso Viejo, Foothill Ranch, Lake Forest, Tustin Ranch, and Orange but Irvine turned out to make the most sense for me.
Same for us but I also get where others are coming from as well
I've lived in Irvine for the past 10+ years or so (excluding the few years I spent in Vegas), my mom lives in Irvine, and the majority of my buyers are Irvine/Tustin Ranch buyers so Irvine made the most sense for me.  Then I have buyers who are looking to buy in South and North County and Irvine is right in the middle.  Besides all that, I was able to locate a few floor plans in Irvine that met all of my needs too.  My back-up plan was to buy a Las Ventanas Plan 2 if I couldn't find a re-sale home by the end of this summer.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: WoodburyDad on March 04, 2012, 09:35:32 PM
You got the house
Wife and kids can't be too far behind
Maybe we can set up an over/under on that in the bets for charity thread ;D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 04, 2012, 09:49:31 PM
So you overpaid for the unicorn?  ;)

Congrats nonetheless... hope someone doesn't challenge that you are an Irvine home owner.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 04, 2012, 09:57:04 PM
So you overpaid for the unicorn?  ;)

Congrats nonetheless... hope someone doesn't challenge that you are an Irvine home owner.
I think I got a really good deal and considering that I was able to use the commission to remodel the home, I'm a happy camper.  It's not like I'm a very private person so if someone really wants to find out if I actually bought the home they can check with the County Recorder's Office.  ;)  The home is very close to rental parity so I know I didn't overpay too much.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: iacrenter on March 04, 2012, 11:12:26 PM
USC,

Congratulations on the new home!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: morekaos on March 05, 2012, 07:57:14 AM
Congrats SC...maybe we will someday join the ranks of the landed gentry,  one can hope for a change.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: davenlei on March 05, 2012, 08:18:41 AM
Congrats USC!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zovall on March 05, 2012, 08:33:05 AM
Congrats on your new home USC!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: rkp on March 05, 2012, 09:17:43 AM
congrats USC...would love to see a post on how you decided which property to buy.  with all the data you have access to and the numerous properties you have shown clients, picking one for yourself seems like it would be hard.  i work in tech and am slowest to upgrade because i see way too much and i always feel like what i am buying will become a rock in a few months....
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 05, 2012, 09:38:04 AM
i work in tech and am slowest to upgrade because i see way too much and i always feel like what i am buying will become a rock in a few months....
I think Irvine housing innovation is much slower than tech... in fact... with the removal of extra garage space, extra living space and even driveways... you can say that it's regressing. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on March 05, 2012, 09:59:48 AM
Congrats USC! Now you just increased your odd of finding a Chinese Wife.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: IndieDev on March 05, 2012, 10:08:57 AM
He can get Chinese, but if he wants to go Korean he's going to need to drop the M3 and get a white Mercedes, hopefully E-Class or above.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 10:45:45 AM
congrats USC...would love to see a post on how you decided which property to buy.  with all the data you have access to and the numerous properties you have shown clients, picking one for yourself seems like it would be hard.  i work in tech and am slowest to upgrade because i see way too much and i always feel like what i am buying will become a rock in a few months....
Thank you.  Having taken around many buyers all around Irvine and other surrounding cities definitely provided me with an insight that many perspective buyers might not have.  There were several "must-haves" on my list so that did narrow things down quite a bit for me.  When decided on which city/cities to focus, I weighed a lot of factors....proximity to my family, where I spend most of my time either working and not working, exit strategy, good schools, shopping, etc. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 10:50:32 AM
He can get Chinese, but if he wants to go Korean he's going to need to drop the M3 and get a white Mercedes, hopefully E-Class or above.
The only E-class that I would consider would be an E63 AMG but man do Mercedes drive like speedboats (very little handling).  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: New Name on March 05, 2012, 10:51:14 AM
Congrats!  Will we get a full story like when you sold?  Like was it a standard or short sale or REO?  How long did it take from submitting your offer before it got accepted and then finally closed?  Any counter offers or BS from the agent like "I have multiple offers above X, so you better submit a better one"

Are you using the PenFed 5/5?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 10:51:33 AM
Congrats USC! Now you just increased your odd of finding a Chinese Wife.
But I don't have any LV accessory items.   :-X
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 10:54:27 AM
Congrats!  Will we get a full story like when you sold?  Like was it a standard or short sale or REO?  How long did it take from submitting your offer before it got accepted and then finally closed?  Any counter offers or BS from the agent like "I have multiple offers above X, so you better submit a better one"

Are you using the PenFed 5/5?
Thanks, I'll provide a nice write-up next week once I get all unpacked and settled (I'll even provide a few before and after pictures).  It was a short sale with a lot of ups and downs but one that finally got done.  I went with a 7-year ARM loan but I may refi into a PenFed 5/5 ARM loan (didn't think about going with PenFed on the purchase because they have a bad rep for being super slow on their mortgage loans). 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on March 05, 2012, 10:59:40 AM
Congrats USC! Now you just increased your odd of finding a Chinese Wife.
But I don't have any LV accessory items.   :-X


No need because you will be shown how to acquire them during courtship. Once you are hooked that Hello Kitty set of stickers will humiliate your muscle car and is a testament of your loyalty.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 05, 2012, 11:00:31 AM
Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2012, 11:05:33 AM
  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

The only kind that matters, the hot kind.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: IrvineRealtor on March 05, 2012, 11:08:10 AM
Congrats on the purchase, Martin. Welcome to the 'hood.

-IR2
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: IndieDev on March 05, 2012, 11:14:49 AM
He can get Chinese, but if he wants to go Korean he's going to need to drop the M3 and get a white Mercedes, hopefully E-Class or above.
The only E-class that I would consider would be an E63 AMG but man do Mercedes drive like speedboats (very little handling).  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

Asian women hate discomfort, even in a fancy sports car. You will have a hard time convincing her to sit in bolstered seats on a lowered suspension that will cause her fake eyelashes to fall out every time you hit a speed bump. I'd think twice.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 05, 2012, 11:19:56 AM
He can get Chinese, but if he wants to go Korean he's going to need to drop the M3 and get a white Mercedes, hopefully E-Class or above.
The only E-class that I would consider would be an E63 AMG but man do Mercedes drive like speedboats (very little handling).  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

Asian women hate discomfort, even in a fancy sports car. You will have a hard time convincing her to sit in bolstered seats on a lowered suspension that will cause her fake eyelashes to fall out every time you hit a speed bump. I'd think twice.

That's what the EDC is for in the M.  Set it to comfort mode so it won't make her teeths chatter or put it in Sport and watch her... err.. nevermind!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: IndieDev on March 05, 2012, 11:31:13 AM
He can get Chinese, but if he wants to go Korean he's going to need to drop the M3 and get a white Mercedes, hopefully E-Class or above.
The only E-class that I would consider would be an E63 AMG but man do Mercedes drive like speedboats (very little handling).  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

Asian women hate discomfort, even in a fancy sports car. You will have a hard time convincing her to sit in bolstered seats on a lowered suspension that will cause her fake eyelashes to fall out every time you hit a speed bump. I'd think twice.

That's what the EDC is for in the M.  Set it to comfort mode so it won't make her teeths chatter or put it in Sport and watch her... err.. nevermind!

Does comfort mode actually change the ride characteristics? Never driven an M3.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: The California Court Company on March 05, 2012, 12:25:05 PM
A picture is worth a thousands words.

  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

The only kind that matters, the hot kind.

I work with a girl that lusts after a GT3.  She's 26, Chinese (half Hong Kong/half Taiwanese), and so unbelievably hot it should be criminal.  Unfortunately for you, she lives in Alhambra and sneers when I have brought up Irvine before.  Not a fan.  Swears she will never want it, even after she gets wife'd with kids --- we joke about that all the time, I tell her she'll be pushing strollers around the pocket parks and talking about Kumon with FOB's.  But she's aiming for San Marino, and not the fake one in Woodbury.  I'm pretty sure she'll get it, too.  GT3 girls are in a different league.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on March 05, 2012, 03:32:00 PM
Do you think GT3 girls go for a big bat or fat wallet?

 
A picture is worth a thousands words.

  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

The only kind that matters, the hot kind.

I work with a girl that lusts after a GT3.  She's 26, Chinese (half Hong Kong/half Taiwanese), and so unbelievably hot it should be criminal.  Unfortunately for you, she lives in Alhambra and sneers when I have brought up Irvine before.  Not a fan.  Swears she will never want it, even after she gets wife'd with kids --- we joke about that all the time, I tell her she'll be pushing strollers around the pocket parks and talking about Kumon with FOB's.  But she's aiming for San Marino, and not the fake one in Woodbury.  I'm pretty sure she'll get it, too.  GT3 girls are in a different league.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: traceimage on March 05, 2012, 04:25:33 PM
Congratulations on the new house, USC!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 05, 2012, 04:29:07 PM
Do you think GT3 girls go for a big bat or fat wallet?

 
A picture is worth a thousands words.

  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

The only kind that matters, the hot kind.

I work with a girl that lusts after a GT3.  She's 26, Chinese (half Hong Kong/half Taiwanese), and so unbelievably hot it should be criminal.  Unfortunately for you, she lives in Alhambra and sneers when I have brought up Irvine before.  Not a fan.  Swears she will never want it, even after she gets wife'd with kids --- we joke about that all the time, I tell her she'll be pushing strollers around the pocket parks and talking about Kumon with FOB's.  But she's aiming for San Marino, and not the fake one in Woodbury.  I'm pretty sure she'll get it, too.  GT3 girls are in a different league.

I say fat wallet as it will match her fat LV bag.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on March 05, 2012, 04:30:02 PM
Congratulations USC!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 04:37:09 PM
Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 04:38:23 PM
A picture is worth a thousands words.

  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

The only kind that matters, the hot kind.

I work with a girl that lusts after a GT3.  She's 26, Chinese (half Hong Kong/half Taiwanese), and so unbelievably hot it should be criminal.  Unfortunately for you, she lives in Alhambra and sneers when I have brought up Irvine before.  Not a fan.  Swears she will never want it, even after she gets wife'd with kids --- we joke about that all the time, I tell her she'll be pushing strollers around the pocket parks and talking about Kumon with FOB's.  But she's aiming for San Marino, and not the fake one in Woodbury.  I'm pretty sure she'll get it, too.  GT3 girls are in a different league.
+1000  I'm waiting for Patrick's PM with the picture.  :D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 05, 2012, 04:40:23 PM
He can get Chinese, but if he wants to go Korean he's going to need to drop the M3 and get a white Mercedes, hopefully E-Class or above.
The only E-class that I would consider would be an E63 AMG but man do Mercedes drive like speedboats (very little handling).  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

Asian women hate discomfort, even in a fancy sports car. You will have a hard time convincing her to sit in bolstered seats on a lowered suspension that will cause her fake eyelashes to fall out every time you hit a speed bump. I'd think twice.

That's what the EDC is for in the M.  Set it to comfort mode so it won't make her teeths chatter or put it in Sport and watch her... err.. nevermind!

Does comfort mode actually change the ride characteristics? Never driven an M3.

The comfort setting makes the suspension softer, you can feel the difference.  It's not as floaty or comfy as lets say the Avalon but it's more tolerable then the Sport setting on the M. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 05, 2012, 04:42:09 PM
Martin- Let me know when you get one, I'm getting the itch to move up as well!

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 04:45:17 PM
Martin- Let me know when you get one, I'm getting the itch to move up as well!


I'm waiting for 2 things...for the new 991 GT3s to come out and to replenish my cash levels before I begin looking around one.  I'm leaning towards getting the 997.2 one (2010+) since they bumped the HP a decent bit with the 3.8l vs. the 3.6l. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2012, 04:52:09 PM
Do you think GT3 girls go for a big bat or fat wallet?

they think they want the fat wallet. but ultimately they realize the big bat makes them happier.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 05, 2012, 04:52:23 PM
I believe 997.2 is the way to go :)

After driving my bosses GT3, the steering feel and response makes the M feel like an Avalon I mean like my Prius
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 05, 2012, 04:53:03 PM
Do you think GT3 girls go for a big bat or fat wallet?

they think they want the fat wallet. but ultimately they realize the big bat makes them happier.

But the big bat won't fit in their "Purse" ;) (Insert "That's what she said" comment)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: The California Court Company on March 05, 2012, 04:55:12 PM
every thread at the end all somewhat turns into something either about gambling, cars, food or sex.  Irvine is the new Vice city.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2012, 04:59:23 PM
every thread at the end all somewhat turns into something either about gambling, cars, food or sex.  Irvine is the new Vice city.

dude - why the hell do you think everyone wants to make a lot of money. More money = nicer cars, nicer restaurants, and nicer house which leads to nicer/more women, if no one those things existed i would have a government job. ultimately everything comes down to sex. if i lost my penis/nuts i may as well shoot myself in the head. there is no point in living.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on March 05, 2012, 05:11:36 PM
Here you go Trojan. put your Persian Palatial remodel on hold and keep your wallet thick. You may need to add tissues to beef up the wallet thickness and the GT3 girls do the same with their bra.

Do you think GT3 girls go for a big bat or fat wallet?

 
A picture is worth a thousands words.

  The next step up in terms of cars for me is the 997 GT3, not sure what kind of girl that car will attract though.

The only kind that matters, the hot kind.

I work with a girl that lusts after a GT3.  She's 26, Chinese (half Hong Kong/half Taiwanese), and so unbelievably hot it should be criminal.  Unfortunately for you, she lives in Alhambra and sneers when I have brought up Irvine before.  Not a fan.  Swears she will never want it, even after she gets wife'd with kids --- we joke about that all the time, I tell her she'll be pushing strollers around the pocket parks and talking about Kumon with FOB's.  But she's aiming for San Marino, and not the fake one in Woodbury.  I'm pretty sure she'll get it, too.  GT3 girls are in a different league.

I say fat wallet as it will match her fat LV bag.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: rkp on March 05, 2012, 05:15:13 PM
every thread at the end all somewhat turns into something either about gambling, cars, food or sex.  Irvine is the new Vice city.

i think most threads end with k-pop....irvine is the new teenage korean girl city
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2012, 05:52:16 PM
Say what you want about the Big 4, but the talent level is always top notch.

yeah, that is one of the things i miss the most about the big 4. the biz dev women were always hot as well.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 06:05:23 PM
Say what you want about the Big 4, but the talent level is always top notch.

yeah, that is one of the things i miss the most about the big 4. the biz dev women were always hot as well.
And so were the girls that worked in HR/recruiting.  Although, I remember this really hot girl in the tax department at PwC.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2012, 06:08:37 PM
Say what you want about the Big 4, but the talent level is always top notch.

yeah, that is one of the things i miss the most about the big 4. the biz dev women were always hot as well.
And so were the girls that worked in HR/recruiting.  Although, I remember this really hot girl in the tax department at PwC.

tax always had the least attractive woman.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: SoCal on March 05, 2012, 06:13:50 PM
I'm proud of you for not doing it, P. Star. Nice to see a guy be considerate when tempted not to be. You're a good guy.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 06:22:47 PM
Say what you want about the Big 4, but the talent level is always top notch.

yeah, that is one of the things i miss the most about the big 4. the biz dev women were always hot as well.
And so were the girls that worked in HR/recruiting.  Although, I remember this really hot girl in the tax department at PwC.

tax always had the least attractive woman.
Yeah, that's why it was so shocking....she was the biggest exception to the rule out there.  The Orange County PwC office did not have many attractive women who worked on the audit side either.  You'd have to go to the Valuation Group and HR for that.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: kalbi on March 05, 2012, 06:44:45 PM
congrats SC!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 06:48:18 PM
tax always had the least attractive woman.

Not at my Firm.  But I'm at the downtown mothership now, so everything is better than it was at the OC outpost.
There was definitely more attractive women in the tax and audit department at PwC's downtown LA office, the OC office just could not compete.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: akim997 on March 05, 2012, 08:51:22 PM
hey neighbor!!!  keep the RPMs down past 8pm when my daughter is asleep...   congrats on the deal, and you got a good one!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ps9 on March 05, 2012, 09:06:01 PM
For some reason loud exhaust never woke up my toddler, more high pitched, sharp noises...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on March 05, 2012, 09:32:36 PM
So Trojan did you buy in the Irvine ghetto?

hey neighbor!!!  keep the RPMs down past 8pm when my daughter is asleep...   congrats on the deal, and you got a good one!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 10:05:53 PM
For some reason loud exhaust never woke up my toddler, more high pitched, sharp noises...
I'm glad I don't wake everyone up with my exhaust when I drop by the post office by you.  haha
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2012, 10:06:13 PM
So Trojan did you buy in the Irvine ghetto?

hey neighbor!!!  keep the RPMs down past 8pm when my daughter is asleep...   congrats on the deal, and you got a good one!
:-X
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on March 05, 2012, 10:18:10 PM
Oh No you didn't buy the 714 Irvine!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 05, 2012, 10:41:47 PM
For some reason loud exhaust never woke up my toddler, more high pitched, sharp noises...

When I get my car back, I'm gonna rev the heck out of my car in front of your home LOL.. If the exhaust doesn't wake her up the whining from the SC will! LOL JK!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: MovingOnUp on March 06, 2012, 12:02:48 AM
Say what you want about the Big 4, but the talent level is always top notch.

yeah, that is one of the things i miss the most about the big 4. the biz dev women were always hot as well.
And so were the girls that worked in HR/recruiting.  Although, I remember this really hot girl in the tax department at PwC.

There was one in the Deloitte downtown office as well...sat on the 7th floor. Hottest chick at Deloitte was in the OC office. She and I interviewed in the same group, started on the same day, went to all the same out of town trainings, and ended up w/ the same specialty. never have I seen someone get hit on as much as her. Waiting for the plane, in line to board the plane, sitting in the plane, exiting the plane, cab driver, bars, clubs, etc etc.  yet she was still down to earth and the coolest girl.

One christmas party my wife said, "there aren't any fat, ugly, and/or social misfits here, everyone is either decent looking, dress well, or are super outgoing and friendly. Never really noticed until my wife said that, but thereafter realized it made sense. we had to be presentable to clients since we were on-site almost everyday, something generally not required for tax.

having said all this, nothing beats my time in apparel/retail. eye candy is through the roof, especially when it gets hot.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 06, 2012, 12:17:07 AM
Say what you want about the Big 4, but the talent level is always top notch.

yeah, that is one of the things i miss the most about the big 4. the biz dev women were always hot as well.
And so were the girls that worked in HR/recruiting.  Although, I remember this really hot girl in the tax department at PwC.

There was one in the Deloitte downtown office as well...sat on the 7th floor. Hottest chick at Deloitte was in the OC office. She and I interviewed in the same group, started on the same day, went to all the same out of town trainings, and ended up w/ the same specialty. never have I seen someone get hit on as much as her. Waiting for the plane, in line to board the plane, sitting in the plane, exiting the plane, cab driver, bars, clubs, etc etc.  yet she was still down to earth and the coolest girl.

One christmas party my wife said, "there aren't any fat, ugly, and/or social misfits here, everyone is either decent looking, dress well, or are super outgoing and friendly. Never really noticed until my wife said that, but thereafter realized it made sense. we had to be presentable to clients since we were on-site almost everyday, something generally not required for tax.

having said all this, nothing beats my time in apparel/retail. eye candy is through the roof, especially when it gets hot.
PwC didn't have a big office in OC and about 90% of the people in audit were guys (lot of guys from BYU).  I think most of the new grads from UCLA & USC preferred to work in the LA office.  Most of the attractive women at the clients were in marketing/PR, HR, sales, and admin/receptionists. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: IndieDev on March 06, 2012, 07:43:52 AM
Oh No you didn't buy the 714 Irvine!

I once knew someone who lived in "714", he was a crass, and somewhat unintelligent fellow. Definitely a product of his environment.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: SoCal on March 06, 2012, 08:58:03 AM
P.S. Although I already said so privately, congrats again to Trojan on the attainment of the new residence.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehusky on March 06, 2012, 10:46:22 AM
Hello USC,

Congratulations on your purchase!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 28, 2012, 11:49:36 AM
Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 28, 2012, 12:03:49 PM
Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.   I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: PureRealEstateGal on March 28, 2012, 04:18:10 PM
I love the Asian community here in Irvine - but houses are over priced for sure-- I see pretty good size houses in the 700,000s. I'm used to much cheaper pricing for homes in SD lol - -but I guess this is good- for listings  :D

Here is a funny video link for all you Realtors out there- it's hilarious. I'm sharing it.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on March 28, 2012, 04:48:38 PM
Ok people lets not chase away Trojans future bride here. We chased away the princess last time.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: rkp on March 28, 2012, 06:03:16 PM
I love the Asian community here in Irvine - but houses are over priced for sure-- I see pretty good size houses in the 700,000s. I'm used to much cheaper pricing for homes in SD lol - -but I guess this is good- for listings  :D

Here is a funny video link for all you Realtors out there- it's hilarious. I'm sharing it.


it wasnt hilarious - it was a pitch for your company's services.  no need to be sly about sharing it.  just say your group made it and you are posting it to drum up leads. 

so which one are you: http://purepcg.com/our_team.php
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on March 28, 2012, 06:15:59 PM
I think she is Teri the young and cute one. She is perfect for USC Trojan. Vivian wouldn't call other Asians Oriental. Oriental is a word for rug or a lamp but rarely used for Asians.

May be that is a clever adjective to include the people from the rug maker countries.

I thought only Hispanic handymen and landscapers don't have an office address.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 04, 2012, 12:12:47 AM
Attached is the sales and inventory data for March and April 2012.  March 2012 sales were up about 4% versus March 2012 while April 2012 sales were up about 5% versus April 2012 sales.  That's not really the main issue that I'm seeing because the buyers are out there and looking (they are being selective though).  The issue that we are having is that there is a lack of inventory, both standard and REO listings.  The number of active listings has DROPPED by about 20% from the end of 2011, it should be going the other way.  Normally, inventory levels rise from the end of the year but things are going the opposite direction currently.  We are near the lows in active listings of what we saw back in Nov/Dec 2009.  Homes that are priced right and show decently fly into escrow (87 Legacy in West Irvine would be a great example of that). The majority of listings out there are either short sales or equity sellers who have listed their homes at WTF prices looking for a sucker? 

Is it because there is a lack of unwilling sellers looking for higher price or sellers who can't sell (little to no equity) or a combination of the two?  I honestly don't know.  The interesting is that these low inventory levels aren't just happening in Irvine, it's also in Ladera Ranch, Laguna Niguel, Aliso Viejo, Yorba Linda, Orange, Anaheim Hills, and even out in Las Vegas.  Interest rates are back down to 3.75%-4% after rising a bit for a few weeks so that's definitely a tailwind for buyers.  Of my last 6 purchase transactions, 4 will have been REOs with 1 flip and 1 standard sale and that's only because my buyers and I have acted quickly to get the properties into escrow for my buyers.  I'm sure hoping that new listings start coming out as we get into the summer selling season because we are below 2.5 months worth of inventory as I type this (463 active listings in Irvine on MLS as of 20 minutes ago). 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: WoodburyDad on May 04, 2012, 11:47:09 AM
Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.   I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 04, 2012, 11:49:18 AM
Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.   I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?
I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: WoodburyDad on May 04, 2012, 11:54:46 AM
Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.   I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?
I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.

No hurry, I didn’t mean it that way.
I'm a big DIY renovations fan.
It’s been five months and I’m just anxious that’s all.  ;)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: The California Court Company on May 04, 2012, 12:06:32 PM
just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon  :P

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.   I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?
I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 04, 2012, 12:07:23 PM
This could change in the future... but so far... many of those bearish doomsday predictions haven't happened yet:

1. Tsunami of foreclosures hitting the market.

2. Interest rates skyrocketing.

3. Inventory ballooning.

4. Prices dropping by 50%+ (in some products it has... but not across the board).

I think the next few years are going to be really interesting.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 04, 2012, 12:12:17 PM
just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon  :P

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.   I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?
I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.
Ok, I'll post a thread this weekend...no more waiting for you guys.  I got the pool up to speed last week so I show the before and after pictures of that too.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on May 04, 2012, 12:12:42 PM
The new and improved version of OH will  just be like LA. Stripped, cheapen, valued and repeat. So don't expect too much or all of us would be disappointted like LA.

just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon  :P

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.   I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?
I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: WoodburyDad on May 04, 2012, 01:07:02 PM
just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon  :P

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.   I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?
I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.
Ok, I'll post a thread this weekend...no more waiting for you guys.  I got the pool up to speed last week so I show the before and after pictures of that too.

That’s one of the benefits of not having an association to deal with
No approval hold ups and you can get away with all sorts of cool features.
I wanted to get a version of this approved for our backyard really bad

(http://www.sharewonders.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/trevi-fountain-rome-rfntrv1.jpg)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 04, 2012, 02:37:08 PM
Ahh... so WoodburyDad is actually MikeinIrvine*.

*For those unfamiliar with MikeinIrvine... he spent some exorbitant amount on his backyard landscaping... to the point that I thought he re-created Disneyland in his backyard.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Nous on May 07, 2012, 12:27:51 PM
This could change in the future... but so far... many of those bearish doomsday predictions haven't happened yet:

1. Tsunami of foreclosures hitting the market.

2. Interest rates skyrocketing.

3. Inventory ballooning.

4. Prices dropping by 50%+ (in some products it has... but not across the board).

I think the next few years are going to be really interesting.

I think that's the part causing this, the next few years.  We have an election season that is causing congress to put off any majour legislation.  The Eruozone is get real shaky with their own elections, and they haven't really tackled their debt issues either.  Throw in people who don't want to take a loss and a bunch of companies trying to make as much money as they can and you get a nice recipe for "WTF is going on?!".  Personally I don't think this area is worth what people charge (hence why I still haven't bought even though my asian fiance and her family are chompin at the bit) and that prices will adjust to income in time.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: The California Court Company on May 07, 2012, 12:30:25 PM
Orchard Hills just got postponed again. The latest date now is TBD.

just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon  :P

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes! :)
Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 
Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.
Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.   I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?
I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.
Ok, I'll post a thread this weekend...no more waiting for you guys.  I got the pool up to speed last week so I show the before and after pictures of that too.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 07, 2012, 12:34:05 PM
Orchard Hills just got postponed again. The latest date now is TBD.
Usually TBD stands for "To Be Determined". In OH's case... it's continually "To Be Delayed".
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 08, 2012, 11:22:18 PM
We've hit a multiple year low for active listings in Irvine this evening....only 444 (triple death) homes on the market as of this evening.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 03, 2012, 08:21:42 PM
Attached is the sales data through the end of June.  Sales in May 2012 were over 18% higher than those in May 2011 while sales in June 2012 were about 6% higher than in June 2011 as well as being the highest level since the bubble days.  June marked the 4th straight month of YOY sales increases.  Inventory levels continue to plunge to recent lows that have also not been seen since the bubble days.  Strong sales along with the lack of new listings is leading to very slim pickings, not just in Irvine but almost in every city in Orange County (even Vegas).  Interest rates which are around 3.50% for conforming loans and 3.75% for jumbo conforming loans have been a tailwind to these sales.  It is also possible that the new HAMP/HARP 2.0 refinance program has also taken off some houses off the market as people can refinance with these all-time low rates without a loan-to-value limit and stay put in their homes at a lower monthly mortgage payment.  I don't think I've ever seen where inventory levels drop at such a rapid pace from the winter to the spring/summer selling season.  There's a complete lack of standard sellers out there.

So what does this all mean?  Well, we are now in a seller's market with less than 2 months of inventory (415 as I post this).  If you guys think that's bad, Aliso Viejo has less than 1 months of inventory (71 current listings and average sales of 90+ per month in the past months). Most decent property that hits the market priced around comps are going into escrow with quickly, many with multiple offers over list and in some cases over comps.  Being quick and nimble can pay off in this kind of market.  Some appraised values are beginning to get pushed past the comp limits but only if the buyers can bring in enough additional equity to bridge the gap.  As one lender mentioned to me, one or even two closings over comps does not make for a new comp range.  New comp prices are realized and can be justified by appraisers only once there are at least 3-4 closings with the higher prices.  I see prices are creeping up a bit with appraised values and strict lending standards keeping prices somewhat contained.  At some point the low inventory levels will decrease sales volume but will create pent-up demand.  I'm kind of curious to see where inventory levels will be when we get into the slow selling season.  There are very interesting times indeed.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ninja88 on July 04, 2012, 06:28:08 AM
I agree with the assessment.

I sold my house in Feb and have been looking for a place ever since.
I am looking for 4br 3ba house 15 years old or newer.  There is just no inventory.  When something comes up that are move in condition, it is priced around $370+ per sq ft, but gets picked up right away.  I put in an offer on an Woodbury house at asking price within 3 days of the house coming out on the market.  I never even received a counter offer.  The seller accepted a "very good" offer and did not bother with other multiple offers.  I can only imagine how much over asking price she got.  My guess is easily $30K over the asking price.
I also see that the Short sale prices creeping up and the bank is asking a lot more than they were back in Oct/Nov 2009.  On a couple of offers I have put in the short sale houses, the bank is coming back with WTF prices. 

It's just frustrating!!!

I did notice that the interest rate actually went down last few days.  Wonder if the European crisis will keep the interest low for a while....

Believe me, I feel your pain.  Do you mind me asking what size and where the home that you sold in Feb was?  I'll give you a couple of specific examples of the strength of the market...my cash buyer put an FULL priced off on 19 Sandpiper at $550k for a 3bed/2bath Woodbridge home...they got outbid by 3 offers, including one that was another cash offer.  They submitted an offer on 17 Soaring Hawk in Woodbridge at $590k...the seller counters back at $100 over list price.  Inventory is increasing a little bit, but it's lower than it was last year at this time while the number of sales are up 20-40% year-over-year.  I notice that new sellers are increasing their list prices as they see that Irvine home prices are up about 10% from last year.

do you have any buyer in the +800k range? any of them cash? what are you seeing for the houses at that price and above?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ninja88 on July 04, 2012, 06:31:18 AM
I agree with the assessment.

I sold my house in Feb and have been looking for a place ever since.
I am looking for 4br 3ba house 15 years old or newer.  There is just no inventory.  When something comes up that are move in condition, it is priced around $370+ per sq ft, but gets picked up right away.  I put in an offer on an Woodbury house at asking price within 3 days of the house coming out on the market.  I never even received a counter offer.  The seller accepted a "very good" offer and did not bother with other multiple offers.  I can only imagine how much over asking price she got.  My guess is easily $30K over the asking price.
I also see that the Short sale prices creeping up and the bank is asking a lot more than they were back in Oct/Nov 2009.  On a couple of offers I have put in the short sale houses, the bank is coming back with WTF prices. 

It's just frustrating!!!

I did notice that the interest rate actually went down last few days.  Wonder if the European crisis will keep the interest low for a while....

Believe me, I feel your pain.  Do you mind me asking what size and where the home that you sold in Feb was?  I'll give you a couple of specific examples of the strength of the market...my cash buyer put an FULL priced off on 19 Sandpiper at $550k for a 3bed/2bath Woodbridge home...they got outbid by 3 offers, including one that was another cash offer.  They submitted an offer on 17 Soaring Hawk in Woodbridge at $590k...the seller counters back at $100 over list price.  Inventory is increasing a little bit, but it's lower than it was last year at this time while the number of sales are up 20-40% year-over-year.  I notice that new sellers are increasing their list prices as they see that Irvine home prices are up about 10% from last year.

my prev post disappeared so i am reposting. do you have any buyers at the +800k and above? any of them all cash? and what kind of market are you seeing at the price and above?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 04, 2012, 11:11:20 AM
I agree with the assessment.

I sold my house in Feb and have been looking for a place ever since.
I am looking for 4br 3ba house 15 years old or newer.  There is just no inventory.  When something comes up that are move in condition, it is priced around $370+ per sq ft, but gets picked up right away.  I put in an offer on an Woodbury house at asking price within 3 days of the house coming out on the market.  I never even received a counter offer.  The seller accepted a "very good" offer and did not bother with other multiple offers.  I can only imagine how much over asking price she got.  My guess is easily $30K over the asking price.
I also see that the Short sale prices creeping up and the bank is asking a lot more than they were back in Oct/Nov 2009.  On a couple of offers I have put in the short sale houses, the bank is coming back with WTF prices. 

It's just frustrating!!!

I did notice that the interest rate actually went down last few days.  Wonder if the European crisis will keep the interest low for a while....

Believe me, I feel your pain.  Do you mind me asking what size and where the home that you sold in Feb was?  I'll give you a couple of specific examples of the strength of the market...my cash buyer put an FULL priced off on 19 Sandpiper at $550k for a 3bed/2bath Woodbridge home...they got outbid by 3 offers, including one that was another cash offer.  They submitted an offer on 17 Soaring Hawk in Woodbridge at $590k...the seller counters back at $100 over list price.  Inventory is increasing a little bit, but it's lower than it was last year at this time while the number of sales are up 20-40% year-over-year.  I notice that new sellers are increasing their list prices as they see that Irvine home prices are up about 10% from last year.

my prev post disappeared so i am reposting. do you have any buyers at the +800k and above? any of them all cash? and what kind of market are you seeing at the price and above?
I have 3 active buyers looking at $800k+ homes, none of them are cash buyers...anywhere from 25% to 50% down.  The market for 4 bed/3 bath homes 2,300sf+ in and around Irvine is very tight right now with not a lot to pick from.  There are some nice houses out there but the sellers are asking for crazy prices.  The inventory of homes is pretty tight even past the $1m.  Once you go above $1.5-$2M there is more to pick from as that segment doesn't have the strong sales that the segment under $1M has.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: lnc on July 04, 2012, 05:33:16 PM
Regarding $800k+ buyers, just few days ago, Lambert Ranch release 13 $800k + homes.  Five Field homes range from $889,800 to $984,800 have over 20+ prequalify buyer sign up for them and I believe they sold all these 5 home as soon as they were released.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 07, 2012, 01:19:10 AM
Attached is the sales data through the end of July.  July 2012 sales rose over 14% from July 2011 sales but were down from the level in June 2012.  YOY sales increased for the 5th straight month but that may come to an end when we get into August not because there are a lack of buyers but rather a lack of inventory.  Inventory levels in July kept bleeding lower and lower ending the month at 390 properties on the market....basically 2 months of inventory (a strong seller's market).  What does this mean, well it means that there are some frustrated buyers who keep getting outbid on nice properties that are show well and are priced anywhere around comps.  Three out of the last four offers went into multiple counters where my buyers bid above list and slightly above comps and still were not able to get the home (for fourth offer so for a home over $2M where there is more inventory to pick from).  There's a lack of all kinds of inventory....standard sales, REOs, and even short sales.  So the supply/demand dynamics come into effect with buyers beginning to bid up prices so they can get a home (we are in an artificially low inventory period in my opinion).  Because of this ultra low re-sale inventory, homebuilders have benefited greatly with increased sales....Irvine Pacific, The New Home Company, Taylor Morrison, William Lyon, and even KB Homes.  A few of the sales people told me that sales really began to pick for them in April/May.  If you think inventory levels are bad in Irvine, Aliso Viejo has about 3 weeks of inventory (approx. 60 homes with over 80 sales per month). 

So what's causing this low inventory...I think it's a combination of a few things.  Things like low interest rates, the national mortgage settlement, HARP 2.0 refinance program, and steady to slightly increasing buyer's demand.  Interest rates for a confirming $417k loan dipped down as low as 3.25% near par about 1-2 weeks ago.  With the national mortgage settlement in Jan/Feb major lenders agreed to really go out of their to help homeowners modify their loans.  The HARP 2.0 refinance program has provided homeowners who were significantly underwater to refinance their loans to these super low rates that we have now.  As the sales numbers show that there are plenty of buyers out there.  So do I think that prices are going be rising significantly?  No, I think appraisal value issues will keep prices from going up too far too fast.  The question is where will inventory levels be when we enter the slow selling season (after Labor Day)?   :-\
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Jenita143 on August 08, 2012, 01:33:32 PM
any predictions on the interest rates for mortgage loans? We did a few pre-quals and the rate went from 3.875 to 4.125. I'm hoping it'll come back down at the end of the year when we need to lock in our rates
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 08, 2012, 05:02:45 PM
any predictions on the interest rates for mortgage loans? We did a few pre-quals and the rate went from 3.875 to 4.125. I'm hoping it'll come back down at the end of the year when we need to lock in our rates
First of all, dont go through the builder's lender....their rates tend to suck.  Provident and Amerisave are the low price leaders.  Really hard to say where rates will be by year end.  My guess is that if things in Europe stay calm and quiet and the stock market keeps moving up and jobs continue to increase so will interest rates and vice versa.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvinecommuter on August 09, 2012, 04:14:09 PM
any predictions on the interest rates for mortgage loans? We did a few pre-quals and the rate went from 3.875 to 4.125. I'm hoping it'll come back down at the end of the year when we need to lock in our rates
First of all, dont go through the builder's lender....their rates tend to suck.  Provident and Amerisave are the low price leaders.  Really hard to say where rates will be by year end.  My guess is that if things in Europe stay calm and quiet and the stock market keeps moving up and jobs continue to increase so will interest rates and vice versa.

Personally, I don't think anything will move until the beginning of the year.  With the election coming up, no one wants to rock the boat economically. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 12, 2012, 01:07:55 AM
Ok Irvine Real Estate fans, August was definitely an interesting month.  We had a total of 246 sales in August over a 29% increase from the same time last year...the highest level since the bubble days back in 2005.  Inventory levels continue to bleed lower and we are down to about 1.5 months of inventory.  Inventory levels ranged between about 365 to 385 in August.  Buyer demand is increasing while inventory levels shrink which is starting to translate to rising prices.  It is getting kinda stupid out there, almost every offer on nice homes priced around comps that I made this last month either had multiple offers and/or the sellers already accepted an offer before I could submit an offer.  To say that we are in a seller's market is an understatement.  My Irvine listing got 4 offers within 2 days of being listed and my Aliso Viejo listing got 5 offers within 3-4 days.  Anyone putting less than 20% or using an FHA loan will have difficultly being competitive in this market.  I shutter to think where inventory levels will be once we get into the slow season (late Oct on).  If you think Irvine is bad, Aliso Viejo is even work.  Aliso had 100 sales in August with about active 60 listings....yes, about 2 WEEKS of inventory.  You can almost sense the desperation/frustration of buyers out there...I see it first hand with my buyers.  Because of this, some of them are considering buying a new home as the Plan B if they can't find a resale home.  It's really anything from the $200s all the way up to $1.5m.  Once you get above $1.5m there are a lot more homes to pick from and less competition to deal with.  It's definitely a good time to be a seller/builder right now.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on September 12, 2012, 06:18:53 AM
So legendary investor warren buffet would sell his irvine home right now and then wait for the price drop and rebuy his house then. MIT definitely feels bubbleliscious out there right now. Maybe not a good time to be buying irvine real estate
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: flipper on September 12, 2012, 09:33:47 AM
High end is almost selling at peak price as well.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/23-Trumpet-Vine-92603/home/5901271
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Highpoint-92603/home/5900893
Both properties ask for $2.6M and go pending quickly.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvinecommuter on September 12, 2012, 06:59:01 PM
any predictions on the interest rates for mortgage loans? We did a few pre-quals and the rate went from 3.875 to 4.125. I'm hoping it'll come back down at the end of the year when we need to lock in our rates
First of all, dont go through the builder's lender....their rates tend to suck.  Provident and Amerisave are the low price leaders.  Really hard to say where rates will be by year end.  My guess is that if things in Europe stay calm and quiet and the stock market keeps moving up and jobs continue to increase so will interest rates and vice versa.

I don't think anything will happen until early next year with the election and then lame duck.  Also, QE3 is just around the corner.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 07, 2012, 11:52:08 PM
The strong year-over-year sales continue while inventory levels along with interest rates continue to decline.  Sept. 2012 sales were up over 20% from Sept. 2011 sales (189 vs 157).  Inventory stood at 344 active listings at 9/30/12 or about 1.5 months of inventory (very strong seller's market).  Homes that are prices even slightly over comps are flying into escrow with multiple offers and buyers continue to keep getting outbid.  There is definitely a sense of frustration out there with buyers and they are beginning to consider if going with Plan B (buying a new home) is the way to go.  As inventory levels have continued to decrease, so have interest rates.  With the Fed's QE to infinite program 30-year mortgage rates have dipped to 3.125% to 3.25% for loans up to $417k.  It is fairly clear now that prices have risen 5-10% since the beginning part of the year in Irvine from what I can tell.  As inventory levels continue to dry up as we get into the slow selling season the volume of sales will probably begin to drop as well because of the lack of inventory.  Both of the listings that I had (one in Irvine and one in Aliso Viejo) flew into escrow within a week with multiple offers.  It is definitely a good time to be a seller and home builder (home builder stocks are up pretty big this year) but maybe increasing prices will bring some stubborn sellers off the fence....I guess we'll see.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 07, 2013, 11:54:56 PM
We ended up 2012 with record low inventory levels in the recent past (last decade) while buyer demand/sales volume continued to increase as the year went one.  Inventory levels at 12/31/12 drop above 70% from the level of inventory that we had at 12/31/11 while months of inventory went from 4.5 months to about 1 month over that time.  Remember that anything under 3 months supply of inventory is a seller's market.  Sales in the year increased to 2,327 from 1,980 in the previous year (avg month sales of 194 in 2012 compared to 165 in 2011) which represents an increase of approx. 17.5%.  December 2012 sales increased almost 20% from December 2011 sales.  Sales started to really pick up and inventory levels started to significantly fall in April, that's when home builders began to get a tailwind and their sales began to increase and buyer lists began to grow.  Heck, we had 7 months in 2012 where YOY sales were up over 15% including a month where we save an increase of over 50%.  So what's has been driving sales and the inventory drying up?  Well, here are my theories....I believe that buyer demand increased due to a combination of mortgage rates dropping to historical lows (low-to-mid 3%), improving economy and job market, investors looking for yield due to low rates on their deposits, increasing rents, and signs of stabilization in the real estate market.  In terms of the supply side, I believe that inventory levels came down due to increasing sales volume, continued bank foreclosure slowness, the HARP 2.0 refi program for underwater owners, sellers waiting for higher prices, and inability for many sellers to become move-up buyers.  Unless we see some huge spike in interest rates or the economy has a huge hiccup (as well as China and/or Europe issues), real estate should continue to be strong in 2013 primarily due to a lack of inventory and backlog of buyer/investor demand and can see prices increasing moderately. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 10, 2013, 06:03:34 PM
The first month of the year has been a continuation of what we saw in the 2nd half of last year, a strong seller's market.  We had 171 sales in Jan. 2013 which is almost 27% higher than the number of sales we had last year in Jan.  Inventory flipped up a bit from the lows that we saw around the holidays and year-end (176 was the low that I saw) to 215 active listings as the end of Jan so we remain in a very strong seller's market.  Pretty much every single one of my buyers either keeps getting outbid or running into stubborn sellers who are looking for prices above even recent comps.  Many of those buyers are throwing up their hands and getting tired of not having any luck with re-sale homes so I have been registering them at the new home developments.  However, I can tell those buyer lists at the home builders are growing and growing.  Demand is overwhelming supply because there aren't even enough homes out there for those super motivated buyers who are ready to buy today.  I'm beginning to see seller's make the sale of their home contingency upon finding a replacement property and even those properties are going into escrow.  This isn't just an Irvine phenomenon because the same demand/supply issue is almost everywhere in Orange County.  For example, at the end of Jan. there were only about 30 active listings in all of Aliso Viejo which represents about a whopping 2 WEEKS of inventory given that there are about 70-75 sales in Aliso Viejo each month.  Any home that looks nice and is priced within 5% of comps will fly into escrow with multiple offers and that is driving prices higher.  I've spoken to several lenders out there asking about what's going on with the foreclosure front and I've been hearing that banks are bulk selling a good part of the foreclosed inventory to institutional investors so for anyone who was waiting for the foreclosure tidal wave might want to stop holding their breath for it to come.  On the interest rate front, rates have risen about 1/4% to 3/8% in the past 6-8 weeks but it doesn't look like it's dampened the demand at all.  Unless interest rates rise by some significant amount (1%+), I don't see slight to moderate increases to negatively affect buyer demand.  It's looking like 2013 will be a seller's market unless something big happens to change it.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on February 17, 2013, 02:57:15 PM
I agree bud!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: daedalus on February 18, 2013, 01:07:36 AM
I think small increases in interest rates will fuel buying activity.  They may serve to convince people rates have bottomed and will only rise, and people will fear they need to buy now or be financed out forever.  Couple this with tight inventories and we might actually see a marked blip in both prices and sales.  Eventually, per economic theory, any sustained higher rates should lead to lower prices, all else being equal.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 11, 2013, 12:36:49 AM
Feb. 2013 was a continuance of what we saw in Jan. 2013, a very strong seller's market with increase prices.  Feb. 2013 sales increased about 18% from the same period last year and I would argue that sales would have been higher if not for the ultra low inventory levels.  During the month, inventory levels came back under 200 after they peaked around 218 listings in the early part of the month.  The number of active listings has increased back up to 215 in the past few days as we begin to enter the spring selling season.  The multiple counter offer situation continues for buyers.  I'm beginning to see more new listings come onto the market being contingent upon the seller finding a replacement property and even those homes are flying into escrow.  Also, many of the new listings that are hitting the market have very lofty asking prices as sellers sense the buyer desperation.  New home builder buyer lists continue to grow and developments like The Branches in Woodbridge are commanding beyond premium prices.  On the interest rate front, interest rates have ticked back up by about .25% as the economy continues to improve and the stock market keeps grinding higher.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 15, 2013, 12:06:36 AM
The market is white hot.  March 2013 sales volume increase over 21% from March 2012 and over 66% from last month.  The month had the second highest volume of sales since the bubble days.  Every offer that I have made for my clients in March to buy an Irvine re-sale property anywhere near comps have either been responded with a "best and final" multiple counter offer or the seller has just rejected the offer (even offers where my clients submitted an offer at or above list price).  There's almost a buyer panic to buy a home because they sense that prices are only going up from here (the way that things are going I would agree with that sentiment). 

Inventory levels continue to bound around 200 or one month's worth of inventory.  New inventory that comes onto the market keeps getting listed higher and higher with more WTF listing prices popping up everyday.  Unfortunately some of those sellers are getting those prices because desperate cash buyers are willing to pay the asking price.  Waiting listings at new home builders are 3-6 months long (I have several buyers who have been on the list at San Mateo and Mendocino for 3-4+ months without getting a call) and prices continue to go higher for each new phase (those homes are bought up instantly).  I am seeing more and more recently listings pop up and many of them are homes that were bought only a week or two ago which tells me a lot of the buyers are investors.  To put things into perspective, there are about 2x as many active rental listings in Irvine than active for-sale listings and as a rental you have several rentals to pick from when looking for a nice place.

Interest rates actually took a drip back down towards the lows at the end of March and early April by about .25%.  The weak March employment report put a strong bid into the bond market which helped to bring rates down.  Conforming rates have ranged between 3.25% and 3.50% and Jumbo Conforming rates have ranged between 3.50% and 3.75% during the year.  My gutt tells me that we'll probably stay around those ranges this year as the economy is in the "not too hot and not to cold" sweet spot. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 15, 2013, 09:40:08 AM
According to Larry, the demand is being driven by investors... not homeowners:

http://ochousingnews.com/news/the-only-increase-in-housing-demand-is-coming-from-investors

And while USC does think there are more investors buying, I do think that actual owner-occupants are fueling the demand as well.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on April 15, 2013, 10:13:00 AM
According to Larry, the demand is being driven by investors... not homeowners:

http://ochousingnews.com/news/the-only-increase-in-housing-demand-is-coming-from-investors

And while USC does think there are more investors buying, I do think that actual owner-occupants are fueling the demand as well.

Bingo!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 19, 2013, 04:57:45 PM
According to Larry, the demand is being driven by investors... not homeowners:

http://ochousingnews.com/news/the-only-increase-in-housing-demand-is-coming-from-investors

And while USC does think there are more investors buying, I do think that actual owner-occupants are fueling the demand as well.
Most of the buyers are owner-occupants, but I'm starting to see more and more investors come into the equation (rental listings pop up right after sales are closed).  That is supported by the fact that there are over 2x more rental listings in Irvine than for-sale listings.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 19, 2013, 06:14:00 PM
Have rental listings really gone up... or have they stayed the same and for-sales have just dropped?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 19, 2013, 08:58:08 PM
Have rental listings really gone up... or have they stayed the same and for-sales have just dropped?
They've ticked up about 20% since the end of last year.  The rental market, especially above the $3,000, has softened up a bit with all of the rental inventory hitting the market. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 11, 2013, 10:58:51 PM
It's been a while since I provided an update so it'd figure that it was time to do so.  July turned out to have the second highest sales volume in Irvine history at 260 sales which was an increase of over 35% from July 2012 (April 2013 had a record sales volume of 261).  My theory that sales volume was being held back by ultra low inventory turned out to be true since inventory levels at 7/31/13 were about 35% higher than that back on 7/31/12.  Doesn't seem like the increase of interest rates by 1% have put a dent in the sales volume.  What the higher rates have done, along with the 20-30% YOY price increases and increasing inventory levels, is they have causes the pace of price increases to slow down dramatically.  That being said, don't think that prices will be coming down in the near future because we have approximately 2.1 months worth of inventory (with the current 550 active listings on MLS) because anything less than 3 months of inventory is considered a seller's market.  However, that is a big improvement from where we were back in Feb/March when there was about .75 months of inventory.  Looking back on things, we hit a low with inventory levels back in mid-March when there were 174 active listings.  We need inventory levels to increase another 50% from current levels for us to reach 3 months worth of inventory which would be a more neutral market.  Prices for homes in good neighborhoods with desirable floor plans are still flying into escrow with multiple offers but most other properties aren't seem as many bidders due to the combination of prices and rates haven risen (I few of my clients have decided to put a hold on their home search because of these two things).  Short sales and REOs are almost non-existent in this market and I'm seeing NODs and NTSs on foreclosureradar dropping as well.  Guess that flood of foreclosures isn't coming.

On the interest rate front, we have seen rates pop from around 3.25% back in April to as high as 4.50% in early July.  Today, rates are dipped down a bit to around 4.25%.  It'll be interesting to see where rates will go as the FED beings to taper their bond buying program later on this year.  I personally don't think we'll see rates with a 5 handle for a while....I think we'll see a 3 handle before we see a 5 handle, but it all depends on the economic data (especially the jobs numbers) as well as how well China and Europe are doing.  If rates continue to increase, I can see more buyers being priced out and heading to the sidelines which would push us more into a neutral market as on average homes would take longer to see with a smaller buyer pool.  So the bust is not coming anytime soon, even if rates go into the 5s since Irvine has so many cash buyers and most of the financed buyers putting down big downpayments (40%+). 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: abosch00 on November 12, 2013, 11:10:35 PM
USCTrojan - you last posted in July - what's the latest now that we are in November? Or have you continued your analysis in another thread?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 19, 2014, 12:16:17 AM
It's been a while so I figured it was high time to post some updated data and my sense of what it means and more importantly what I'm seeing.  We started to see the market cool off and price levels stabilize starting in the late fall of 2013.  By that time, prices had already run up about 20-25% in a year and interest rates increased by 1-1.25% for a 30-year mortgage.  Looking back at the data, it appears that we hit the peak of the market back in April 2013 when both sales volume peaked and inventory levels bottomed to basically one month's of inventory (white hot seller's market).  As we ended Jan. 2014, we are near 3 months worth of inventory which is a very weak seller's market.  That being said, inventory levels low and there is a test of wills in the current market with stubborn sellers and more picky/patient buyers.  You guys will get a kick out of this....I submitted an offer from a very strong buyer looking to purchase a rental property in Irvine...the offer was within 4% of the listing price and here is the response that I got from the listing agent....

"Thank you for the offer, my client was not pleased about the offer.  We are going to wait for higher offer."

Yeak OK, good luck with that.  This offer was for an older attached condo that needed some TLC and a listing that had all of one picture that was already listed with no offers for over 2 weeks.  I almost fell off my lazyboy laughing when I read it.  Not even try to counter and split the difference, huh?   I told my client that if the property is still linger on the market, we should re-submit a $5k lower offer just for chits and giggles.  haha

Buyers have a lot more options to pick from today versus in late 2012/early 2013 with all of the new construction home activity.  Gone are the days of the 6-month wait lists at new home developments.  The more popular developments (like Sagewood in Pavilion Park) still have wait listings but it's more like a few dozen people instead of hundreds of people.  Looks like Irvine Pacific now has some competition and looks like buyers are voting with their wallets buying resulting in strong sales at Pavilion Park.  Before anyone thinks that the sky is falling or the Irvine real estate market is going off a cliff, it's not.  Properties that are listed at non-WTF prices are still selling pretty quickly.  Prices are flatish and we still lack re-sale inventory to push prices down as there's a good percentage of active listings that aren't real sellers with WTF prices looking to snag a sucker.  It's very safe to assume that new home sales are taking away sales from re-sale homes but again inventory levels need to rise significant before we begin to see materially lower prices. 

On the rate front, we hit a high of around 4.75% and then we fell back to 4.125/4.25% with the recent stock market correction.  Now we are back to around 4.375%.  My guess is that rates will probably bounce around between 4% to 5% this year so I don't see rates really having a big impact on sales and prices this year.  Back in Jan. 2014, lenders implemented new lending requirements but those will only effect marginal Irvine buyers (most are very strong financially and tend to under buy). 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: nosuchreality on February 19, 2014, 06:40:37 AM
The reality is with three months of inventory, it is still a sellers market.   

It is starting to turn towards a balanced market.  But a buyer's market is far, far off.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on February 19, 2014, 07:30:34 AM
[q
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: SoCal on February 19, 2014, 08:37:47 AM
Back in Jan. 2014, lenders implemented new lending requirements

Can you tell me a little bit more about this? Nice update.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paperboyNC on February 19, 2014, 10:23:49 AM
Properties that are listed at non-WTF prices are still selling pretty quickly. 

Agreed. If I listed my place for 30% more ($367/ft) than I paid for it ($283/ft) two years ago it'd probably sell in a week. This is only active listing in Irvine that is detached, under $370/ft for an over 2000 sq ft, 4bd under $800k home: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Royal-Victoria-92606/home/5918229. The rest are all pending.

But most sellers in Portola Springs are asking WTF prices because they are not in an hurry to sell and only want to sell if they can get a WTF price.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 19, 2014, 10:37:45 AM
The reality is with three months of inventory, it is still a sellers market.   

It is starting to turn towards a balanced market.  But a buyer's market is far, far off.

Bingo!  Numbers never lie and the reality is we are still just under 3 months worth of re-sale inventory.  Open Sky, make sure to get that pen ready for the check to my charity....I'll provide a matching contribution.  :D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 19, 2014, 10:39:35 AM
Back in Jan. 2014, lenders implemented new lending requirements

Can you tell me a little bit more about this? Nice update.
I know the basics of it, for specifics I'd PM Soylent.  But my understanding is that the DTI % has come down and underwriters will more closely look at the borrower's ability to make the monthly payments and repay the loan. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 19, 2014, 10:41:37 AM
Properties that are listed at non-WTF prices are still selling pretty quickly. 

Agreed. If I listed my place for 30% more ($367/ft) than I paid for it ($283/ft) two years ago it'd probably sell in a week. This is only active listing in Irvine that is detached, under $370/ft for an over 2000 sq ft, 4bd under $800k home: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Royal-Victoria-92606/home/5918229. The rest are all pending.

But most sellers in Portola Springs are asking WTF prices because they are not in an hurry to sell and only want to sell if they can get a WTF price.


Yeah, most entry level detached properties in Irvine are trading at $400/sf or more.  If you listed your property for $367/sf you'd probably have multiple offers on it. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 19, 2014, 10:46:52 AM
It's very safe to assume that new home sales are taking away sales from re-sale homes but again inventory levels need to rise significant before we begin to see materially lower prices. 


Yea - the new homes and the upcoming neighborhoods definitely aren't helping.  I feel like a lot of people I know are just waiting to see what else is coming (PA5/OH/more GP/etc) before committing especially since resale prices aren't exactly a steal.  FOMO!
Buyer see that prices have stabilized (as have interest rates) so the panic to buy is gone.  They are taking their time since they have more options now and more coming in the near future.  We'll see how long some of those WTF priced sellers stay delusional thinking that it's still 2013.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: SoCal on February 19, 2014, 10:58:42 AM
Back in Jan. 2014, lenders implemented new lending requirements

Can you tell me a little bit more about this? Nice update.
I know the basics of it, for specifics I'd PM Soylent.  But my understanding is that the DTI % has come down and underwriters will more closely look at the borrower's ability to make the monthly payments and repay the loan. 

Ok, I think I read somewhere else about increased reserves, too.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: quattroporte on February 19, 2014, 11:47:16 AM
Properties that are listed at non-WTF prices are still selling pretty quickly. 

Agreed. If I listed my place for 30% more ($367/ft) than I paid for it ($283/ft) two years ago it'd probably sell in a week. This is only active listing in Irvine that is detached, under $370/ft for an over 2000 sq ft, 4bd under $800k home: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Royal-Victoria-92606/home/5918229. The rest are all pending.

But most sellers in Portola Springs are asking WTF prices because they are not in an hurry to sell and only want to sell if they can get a WTF price.

It will sell soon now. The price now has the magic numbers....8,8,8,8.....
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: furioussugar on February 19, 2014, 11:59:35 AM
Thanks for the update :)

What about all cash buyers-  has there been much change in sales closed with all cash in the last 2 months?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paperboyNC on February 19, 2014, 01:01:36 PM
Yeah, most entry level detached properties in Irvine are trading at $400/sf or more.  If you listed your property for $367/sf you'd probably have multiple offers on it.

Yup. I'm tempted to sell my home for $400/sf once I pass the 2yr tax window because I just don't see prices going up to $1mm for this kind of home even in 10 years and could make more on my money in stocks / bonds. I also swear that the noise from the toll roads keeps getting louder and eventually my area will trade at a significant discount to Irvine - especially in dozens of years when the tolls go away and they widen the 133/241 to accommodate the increased traffic.

For now though I can't afford to move up to a nicer home so I figure I'll wait until I'm either ready to move out of Irvine or my income has increased substantially.

I could sell and rent in the area and wait for the next time prices come down. But there is no guarantee that will ever happen and I don't think it's fair to my kids to move them around any more than necessary.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on February 19, 2014, 01:19:22 PM
[.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paperboyNC on February 19, 2014, 01:42:10 PM
What's wrong with those 3 Manzanita's sitting on the market 80+ days?  Aren't those detached condo?  Asking $335 PSF, $347 and $320.  All 4 bedrooms.

Edit: Oops forgot links but now my Redfin is acting up.  These are the ones over by Conservancy in PS.

31 Conservancy - $839,900
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936)

27 Conservancy - $849,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196)

33 Conservancy - $878,888
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199)

bones,

They are all over $800k and too much square footage. I don't think my home would sell right now for over $800k either. I have fewer square feet.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on February 19, 2014, 01:48:47 PM
.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paperboyNC on February 19, 2014, 01:51:34 PM
What's wrong with those 3 Manzanita's sitting on the market 80+ days?  Aren't those detached condo?  Asking $335 PSF, $347 and $320.  All 4 bedrooms.

Edit: Oops forgot links but now my Redfin is acting up.  These are the ones over by Conservancy in PS.

31 Conservancy - $839,900
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936)

27 Conservancy - $849,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196)

33 Conservancy - $878,888
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199)

bones,

They are all over $800k and too much square footage. I don't think my home would sell right now for over $800k either. I have fewer square feet.

Except didn't these two just close for over $800k down the street.  These are attached condos.  Similar SF, 4 bedrooms.  Closed at $342 PSF and $332 PSF.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Ridge-Vly-92618/unit-52/home/21937692

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/82-Ranchland-92618/unit-66/home/40102594

Those two are right by the park, are more upgraded and just show better. Things will pick up in the spring, but right now buyers willing to pay over $800K want something more than a boring house on a small lot.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on February 19, 2014, 01:55:16 PM
.
http://w.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: GH on February 19, 2014, 02:02:39 PM
What's wrong with those 3 Manzanita's sitting on the market 80+ days?  Aren't those detached condo?  Asking $335 PSF, $347 and $320.  All 4 bedrooms.

Edit: Oops forgot links but now my Redfin is acting up.  These are the ones over by Conservancy in PS.

31 Conservancy - $839,900
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936)

27 Conservancy - $849,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196)

33 Conservancy - $878,888
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199)

bones,

They are all over $800k and too much square footage. I don't think my home would sell right now for over $800k either. I have fewer square feet.

yikes .. so if you are the one living at 29 Conservatory, 3 of your closest neighbors are for sale .. you would think something is wrong specific to this street or neighborhood?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on February 19, 2014, 02:09:14 PM
.od?
[/quote].
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paperboyNC on February 19, 2014, 02:22:19 PM

yikes .. so if you are the one living at 29 Conservatory, 3 of your closest neighbors are for sale .. you would think something is wrong specific to this street or neighborhood?

That's kinda why I asked my original question.  I've been on this street 1000 times.  Nothing is wrong with it per say unless something bad happened over there recently??  It faces the Brookfield Paloma attached product so both sides of the street is alley loaded which makes the street VERY crowded with cars but that's not unusual for Irvine.

Not that I know of. When I was renting once 3 of the 7 houses between ours and the end of the street coincidentally went on the market at once. They all sold around the same time and things quieted down after that. In fact only one home has sold on that street in the past 12 months with no active listings.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: i1 on February 19, 2014, 05:01:44 PM
Honestly, I think those Richmond America homes are just duds.  Brookfield builds a much better house. 
If a home has the features/floorplan/lot you want, does builder matter? maybe I'm naive or haven't had enough bad experiences, but with all the building codes / permitting here, I think quality ends up being a matter of luck with the subs and project mgr working on the home. I've had an agent who specialized in the same hood for ~30 yrs tell me to avoid certain resale tracts due to builder so maybe there is some impact on resale but I still keep thinking even if there are issues, is it really going to be more than 1-2% of the value of the home.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on February 19, 2014, 05:08:49 PM
[q.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: i1 on February 19, 2014, 05:16:55 PM
Honestly, I think those Richmond America homes are just duds.  Brookfield builds a much better house. 
If a home has the features/floorplan/lot you want, does builder matter? maybe I'm naive or haven't had enough bad experiences, but with all the building codes / permitting here, I think quality ends up being a matter of luck with the subs and project mgr working on the home. I've had an agent who specialized in the same hood for ~30 yrs tell me to avoid certain resale tracts due to builder so maybe there is some impact on resale but I still keep thinking even if there are issues, is it really going to be more than 1-2% of the value of the home.

When I said "dud", I don't necessarily mean b/c of the build quality.  Although I think there's some of that in play here along with maybe some floorplan deficiencies.  I haven't seen these in years so I can't remember the interior.  Plus they are among some of the uglier (new) homes I've seen in Irvine.  Also of note, Richmond America abandoned this project 1/3 or 1/2 way through.  They were supposed to build all the way to the toll road if I recall correctly.  Instead, another product is there now.  So between that and the fact that these are sitting on the market 80+ days while attached product of similar SF and price is selling ahead of it says a lot (to me at least).
got it. thanks
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvinecommuter on February 19, 2014, 06:14:39 PM
Honestly, I think those Richmond America homes are just duds.  Brookfield builds a much better house. 
If a home has the features/floorplan/lot you want, does builder matter? maybe I'm naive or haven't had enough bad experiences, but with all the building codes / permitting here, I think quality ends up being a matter of luck with the subs and project mgr working on the home. I've had an agent who specialized in the same hood for ~30 yrs tell me to avoid certain resale tracts due to builder so maybe there is some impact on resale but I still keep thinking even if there are issues, is it really going to be more than 1-2% of the value of the home.

When I said "dud", I don't necessarily mean b/c of the build quality.  Although I think there's some of that in play here along with maybe some floorplan deficiencies.  I haven't seen these in years so I can't remember the interior.  Plus they are among some of the uglier (new) homes I've seen in Irvine.  Also of note, Richmond America abandoned this project 1/3 or 1/2 way through.  They were supposed to build all the way to the toll road if I recall correctly.  Instead, another product is there now.  So between that and the fact that these are sitting on the market 80+ days while attached product of similar SF and price is selling ahead of it says a lot (to me at least).

The RA development in PP is terrible.  Terrible looking from the outside and bad floorplan.

I do recall a good RA development in PS:  Manzanita.  The house was huge and very nice floorplans.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: quattroporte on February 19, 2014, 07:06:59 PM
Honestly, I think those Richmond America homes are just duds.  Brookfield builds a much better house. 
If a home has the features/floorplan/lot you want, does builder matter? maybe I'm naive or haven't had enough bad experiences, but with all the building codes / permitting here, I think quality ends up being a matter of luck with the subs and project mgr working on the home. I've had an agent who specialized in the same hood for ~30 yrs tell me to avoid certain resale tracts due to builder so maybe there is some impact on resale but I still keep thinking even if there are issues, is it really going to be more than 1-2% of the value of the home.

When I said "dud", I don't necessarily mean b/c of the build quality.  Although I think there's some of that in play here along with maybe some floorplan deficiencies.  I haven't seen these in years so I can't remember the interior.  Plus they are among some of the uglier (new) homes I've seen in Irvine.  Also of note, Richmond America abandoned this project 1/3 or 1/2 way through.  They were supposed to build all the way to the toll road if I recall correctly.  Instead, another product is there now.  So between that and the fact that these are sitting on the market 80+ days while attached product of similar SF and price is selling ahead of it says a lot (to me at least).

The RA development in PP is terrible.  Terrible looking from the outside and bad floorplan.

I do recall a good RA development in PS:  Manzanita.  The house was huge and very nice floorplans.

These ones?

What's wrong with those 3 Manzanita's sitting on the market 80+ days?  Aren't those detached condo?  Asking $335 PSF, $347 and $320.  All 4 bedrooms.

Edit: Oops forgot links but now my Redfin is acting up.  These are the ones over by Conservancy in PS.

31 Conservancy - $839,900
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936)

27 Conservancy - $849,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196)

33 Conservancy - $878,888
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199 (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199)

bones,

They are all over $800k and too much square footage. I don't think my home would sell right now for over $800k either. I have fewer square feet.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 19, 2014, 10:44:06 PM
Thanks for the update :)

What about all cash buyers-  has there been much change in sales closed with all cash in the last 2 months?
Cash buyers still make up about 30%+ of all sales transactions in the past few months.  My listing in Stonegate was bought by a cash buyer.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: lnc on February 21, 2014, 12:24:22 PM
Table of distressed sales and cash buyers
Thanks for the update :)

What about all cash buyers-  has there been much change in sales closed with all cash in the last 2 months?
Cash buyers still make up about 30%+ of all sales transactions in the past few months.  My listing in Stonegate was bought by a cash buyer.

S. CAlifornia's all cash purchase is 29.1% of all sales according to this chart (Table of distressed sales and cash buyers) from Caculated Risk.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/lawler-updated-table-of-distressed.html?m=0

 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 21, 2014, 03:15:31 PM
I bet that percentage is higher in Irvine. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 21, 2014, 03:16:11 PM
I bet that percentage is higher in Irvine. :)
It's ranged between about 30-40%.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paperboyNC on February 24, 2014, 09:19:46 AM
Properties that are listed at non-WTF prices are still selling pretty quickly. 

Agreed. If I listed my place for 30% more ($367/ft) than I paid for it ($283/ft) two years ago it'd probably sell in a week. This is only active listing in Irvine that is detached, under $370/ft for an over 2000 sq ft, 4bd under $800k home: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Royal-Victoria-92606/home/5918229. The rest are all pending.

But most sellers in Portola Springs are asking WTF prices because they are not in an hurry to sell and only want to sell if they can get a WTF price.

Good example: Here's a recent listing that is very similar my home. They are asking $415/ft!

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/56-Prickly-Pear-92618/home/52956303
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ps9 on March 17, 2015, 05:38:40 PM
@USC, so what's the current market like?  How much inventory?  My Redfin alert has been buzzing, lots of pending sale notifications and even the 100 days+ homes are going into escrow.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 17, 2015, 06:40:25 PM
Seller's market, baby!  Game on...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on March 17, 2015, 06:44:22 PM
I got to say this: if your thinking about moving up to OH or HC and you have good amount equity, been there longer than 2 years for tax purposes, maybe you should sell now. (Sell before BP)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 17, 2015, 07:56:00 PM
Gasman needs to worry about greenwood not beacon park. I'm sure there will be some people looking at both locations but greenwood will be direct competition. And we know how strong the new smell is.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 17, 2015, 09:11:32 PM
Gasman needs to worry about greenwood not beacon park. I'm sure there will be some people looking at both locations but greenwood will be direct competition. And we know how strong the new smell is.

I'm not worried about BP at all.  Definitely worried about Greenwood.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 17, 2015, 09:22:17 PM
gasman, both of my friend's home were/are listed in CS.  One just sold and one is pending.  I remember you mentioned you live on the same street as them.  That's where both my friends are and they are trying to get the hell out before Greenwood comes out and also because Edinger is like a freeway lol.

Have you moved out yet?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on March 17, 2015, 09:42:08 PM
Gasman needs to worry about greenwood not beacon park. I'm sure there will be some people looking at both locations but greenwood will be direct competition. And we know how strong the new smell is.

I'm not worried about BP at all.  Definitely worried about Greenwood.

Thats a different story if you live in Columbus Square.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 17, 2015, 09:42:23 PM
gasman, both of my friend's home were/are listed in CS.  One just sold and one is pending.  I remember you mentioned you live on the same street as them.  That's where both my friends are and they are trying to get the hell out before Greenwood comes out and also because Edinger is like a freeway lol.

Have you moved out yet?

Workin' on it. :)  There's been an increased rate of activity in CS of late.  Lots of listings across the board, and it's been predictable.  Homes that are priced to sell go quickly (my neighbor's went within 4 days, above asking).  Homes that are priced high are sitting stale.  I've been seeing an uptick in the number of homes in escrow of late.

On a side note, Edinger is the bane of my existence.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 17, 2015, 09:43:02 PM
Thats a different story if you live in are trying to get out of Columbus Square.

Fixed. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 17, 2015, 09:45:49 PM
My buddies home has an alleyway/motorcourt between his home and edinger and it sounds like a freeway... I can also feel the train rumble past! 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 17, 2015, 09:49:17 PM
I went to the models today over at greenwood. The noise from jamboree is most noticeable from the elevated portion of jamborees by the warner exit. Just background noise, noticeable but not too bad. I'm sure u won't be able hear it from inside the house. I wouldn't want to back to edinger or jamboree though

Gasman - sounds like your not considering legacy but the interior even though jambo is nearby would be much better than backing to edinger. And u can take advantage of the playground at the low income apartments. They have the best play area for kids I have seen at any new development. Go figure
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on March 17, 2015, 09:51:11 PM
Thats a different story if you live in are trying to get out of Columbus Square.

Fixed. :)

Thanks - for the fix. I'm eating dinner. Long day bro
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on March 17, 2015, 09:57:29 PM
Put your foot on the gas and sell your home Gasman.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 17, 2015, 10:21:01 PM
I went to the models today over at greenwood. The noise from jamboree is most noticeable from the elevated portion of jamborees by the warner exit. Just background noise, noticeable but not too bad. I'm sure u won't be able hear it from inside the house. I wouldn't want to back to edinger or jamboree though

Gasman - sounds like your not considering legacy but the interior even though jambo is nearby would be much better than backing to edinger. And u can take advantage of the playground at the low income apartments. They have the best play area for kids I have seen at any new development. Go figure

Agreed, that playground is pretty awesome.  Except in the summer...can't imagine all that steel tubing is going to be very friendly for kids in shorts and tank tops.  :o

I really tried to justify Greenwood, but just can't do it.  Quite frankly, I've lost faith in the Legacy developers.  Everything from TUSD's mishandling of Heritage, the amount of wasted time talking to the Angels organization, proximity to Jamboree, and the sheer uncertainty of what the site plan is (linear park? what linear park?)...the rewards simply don't stack up against the risks IMHO.  Sorry if I'm coming off as a bad pill, but we've really thought long and hard about Greenwood, and having lived in CS for the last 7 years, we just can't do it.

Don't worry though, our daughters will still be BFFs... :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 17, 2015, 10:23:44 PM
My buddies home has an alleyway/motorcourt between his home and edinger and it sounds like a freeway... I can also feel the train rumble past!

Yes it does sounds like a freeway.  Come over on a weekend late night, and you'll be treated to drag racing reminiscent of San Diego in the 90's. :)  I've put in commercial sound proofing in my entire 2nd floor, so the noise level isn't a big deal.  We've been able to cut down the db levels by about 40%, and the windows are the weak link at this point.

The train...can't do anything about that one.  Especially the freighters at 3am. :)  Built-in massage bed, anyone?  Or earthquake false alarm...take your pick. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 17, 2015, 10:24:36 PM
Put your foot on the gas and sell your home Gasman.

Only if you're buyin'...  >:D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 17, 2015, 10:36:28 PM
Don't worry though, our daughters will still be BFFs... :)

That's all that matters :-)

Yeah not having the neighborhood school kind of sucks. Although by the time they are ready for kinder it should be open (I hope). Yeah everything seems to take longer, I thought they would be building the shopping center on edinger/Kensington by now. Then the hangars are an eyesore. Maybe someone will accidently set them on fire :-)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 17, 2015, 10:58:36 PM
That's all that matters :-)

Yeah not having the neighborhood school kind of sucks. Although by the time they are ready for kinder it should be open (I hope). Yeah everything seems to take longer, I thought they would be building the shopping center on edinger/Kensington by now. Then the hangars are an eyesore. Maybe someone will accidently set them on fire :-)

:)

Edinger/Kensington is a classic example of the mishaps in this area.  Sure, you can blame the recession for a lot of things, but I feel that this area has been neglected far longer than it should have.  The Veteran's Park on Valencia should be nice also, but comes too little, too late. :(  I will be surprised if Heritage opens for K-8 by 2018.  Hillview Continuation School (rated 3/10 on Redfin) FTW.

You're gonna have to get used to driving up to Myford Elementary... :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on March 17, 2015, 11:14:12 PM
That's all that matters :-)

Yeah not having the neighborhood school kind of sucks. Although by the time they are ready for kinder it should be open (I hope). Yeah everything seems to take longer, I thought they would be building the shopping center on edinger/Kensington by now. Then the hangars are an eyesore. Maybe someone will accidently set them on fire :-)

:)

Edinger/Kensington is a classic example of the mishaps in this area.  Sure, you can blame the recession for a lot of things, but I feel that this area has been neglected far longer than it should have.  The Veteran's Park on Valencia should be nice also, but comes too little, too late. :(  I will be surprised if Heritage opens for K-8 by 2018.  Hillview Continuation School (rated 3/10 on Redfin) FTW.

You're gonna have to get used to driving up to Myford Elementary... :)

I think I'm not going to consider "GW", it may be neglected also.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 17, 2015, 11:19:10 PM
Don't get me started on Lennar changing the senior condos to apartments, and the antics they pulled with the city council & planners to get it fast tracked...

#oldwounds
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: collected on March 17, 2015, 11:22:41 PM
My recent observations have been that the market is very strong and that I doubt there will be any pullback.  There is no reason for there to be a pause.  Nearly all the buyers now are financially able to make payments or buy a house outright unlike during the housing bubble.  IMHO the homes in Santa Ana are asking for crazy WTF prices.  Community, schools, and age of homes all much worse and Irvine isn't that much more per sqft on average. 

You'll find listings like these all over the place:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Ana/1414-W-Elder-Ave-92704/home/3534599 (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Ana/1414-W-Elder-Ave-92704/home/3534599)

You even get a free shopping cart for your backyard.  ;D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 18, 2015, 12:46:21 AM
@USC, so what's the current market like?  How much inventory?  My Redfin alert has been buzzing, lots of pending sale notifications and even the 100 days+ homes are going into escrow.
I'll go ahead and update the thread with some quantitative analysis once the March numbers come in.  In general, the market has picked up a bit.  I'm seeing more multiple offers (both on the buy and sell side).  I've also had a handful of buyers who went on the fence come off and become active buyers again.  It may be that people are worrying about rates going up since the Fed is predicted to raise rates this year.  Also, the employment market is picking up along with raises so that may be another reason the market is picking up a bit.  In the past 2-3 months we went from a neutral market to a weak sellers market. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 18, 2015, 06:41:00 AM
All I got from these last 2 or 3 pages is that Irvine > Tustin.

#SorryQwerts
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on March 18, 2015, 07:03:07 AM
All I got from these last 2 or 3 pages is that Irvine > Tustin.

#SorryQwerts

Haha. I got that as well as 1) gasman needs therapy and 2) why isn't qwerty getting out too?  Place sounds terrible. #sorryqwerts
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 18, 2015, 08:57:06 AM
All I got from these last 2 or 3 pages is that Irvine > Tustin.

#SorryQwerts

Haha. I got that as well as 1) gasman needs therapy and 2) why isn't qwerty getting out too?  Place sounds terrible. #sorryqwerts

Well from experience I can tell you this, If you don't like where you live, get out before your kids join school.  We are in TUSD and that was one of the primary reason we couldn't take the plunge on PP.  If we had I would be sitting on a ton of equity now :D.  Eventhough it is only about 5 miles from School, with two people working, every minute is a premium in the mornings on school days.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 08:59:51 AM
All I got from these last 2 or 3 pages is that Irvine > Tustin.

#SorryQwerts

No argument here
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ps9 on March 18, 2015, 09:00:35 AM
Once PBR is $10+ qwerty will move, cmon released financials!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 09:10:33 AM
Once PBR is $10+ qwerty will move, cmon released financials!

If we move it will be to east side Costa Mesa or newport. Qwerty is white inside, brown outside and black between the legs :-)

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: SoCal on March 18, 2015, 09:14:28 AM
Qwerty is white inside, brown outside and black between the legs :-)

All 3 rolled into one. What a man!! What I want to know is if you can dance. Since you're white on the inside, probably not.  ;D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 18, 2015, 09:14:59 AM
black between the legs :-)
Mold?

#ImHereAllWeek
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 09:18:42 AM
black between the legs :-)
Mold?

#ImHereAllWeek

You are dying to me :-)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: rkp on March 18, 2015, 09:20:00 AM
black between the legs :-)
Mold?

#ImHereAllWeek

You found the cause of Chairman's powder room smell!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 09:20:27 AM
Qwerty is white inside, brown outside and black between the legs :-)

All 3 rolled into one. What a man!! What I want to know is if you can dance. Since you're white on the inside, probably not.  ;D

Let's just say I was living la vida loca in my twenties. My dancing days are behind me
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 09:22:04 AM
black between the legs :-)
Mold?

#ImHereAllWeek

You found the cause of Chairman's powder room smell!

If I was hanging around chairmAns house the smell would be the least of his problems :-)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on March 18, 2015, 09:25:54 AM
All I got from these last 2 or 3 pages is that Irvine > Tustin.

#SorryQwerts

Haha. I got that as well as 1) gasman needs therapy and 2) why isn't qwerty getting out too?  Place sounds terrible. #sorryqwerts

Well from experience I can tell you this, If you don't like where you live, get out before your kids join school.  We are in TUSD and that was one of the primary reason we couldn't take the plunge on PP.  If we had I would be sitting on a ton of equity now :D.  Eventhough it is only about 5 miles from School, with two people working, every minute is a premium in the mornings on school days.

Confused. Bc you don't want your kid to switch schools?  Or they can stay at the same school, but the drive would be longer? 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 09:58:51 AM
All I got from these last 2 or 3 pages is that Irvine > Tustin.

#SorryQwerts

Haha. I got that as well as 1) gasman needs therapy and 2) why isn't qwerty getting out too?  Place sounds terrible. #sorryqwerts

its not as bad as it sounds, keep in mind, gasman has been here much longer and the place didnt develop as promised hence more frustration and im sure that is compounded by his place backing edinger.

im only going on two years and my place doesnt back to edinger, our location is very good within columbus square, we dont have any road noise from edinger/red hill.  i really like our house, our floor plan is one of the better ones out there. 3,000 sq ft, 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, loft, great room, dining room, 3 car garage. we also really like the central location. getting to target/costco takes less than 5 minutes, south coast plaza is less than 10 minutes, plenty of food places around, quick freeway access. im not hung up on IUSD like most folks here, a really nice sports park is opening summer of 2016 as well.  if the local elementary school doesnt open up by fall of 2018 then i will have to trek to myford or one of those TUSD in northern Tustin/Irvine but that is not for another 3 years.  i actually dont mind the lack of development, except the strip mall with the grocery store on kensington/edinger that hasnt happened because we do have to go to the ralphs on jamboree or culver. otherwise less neighbors/traffic.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on March 18, 2015, 10:05:10 AM
All I got from these last 2 or 3 pages is that Irvine > Tustin.

#SorryQwerts

Haha. I got that as well as 1) gasman needs therapy and 2) why isn't qwerty getting out too?  Place sounds terrible. #sorryqwerts
I thought Yaliu had it bad.  :D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 18, 2015, 10:19:52 AM
:) I'm definitely painting a gloomier picture than reality.  Location of CS is definitely convenient, and our neighbors are amazing.  There's a lot of diversity in this area as well, which is nice to see.  From a micro standpoint, the houses here are really nice, and I've enjoyed mine for the last 7 years.  The parks in CS are well maintained, and the amenities are solid.

It's when you start to look at things from a macro perspective where things start to go south.  We're paying the same premium to live in CS as you would in Irvine (yes, the tax rate here with mello roos is 1.8-1.9%), so if I don't see a comparable level of progress, the costs begin to outweigh the benefits.

Thanks Dr. bones for that therapy session. :)  Now buy my house...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on March 18, 2015, 10:26:19 AM
:) I'm definitely painting a gloomier picture than reality.  Location of CS is definitely convenient, and our neighbors are amazing.  There's a lot of diversity in this area as well, which is nice to see.  From a micro standpoint, the houses here are really nice, and I've enjoyed mine for the last 7 years.  The parks in CS are well maintained, and the amenities are solid.

It's when you start to look at things from a macro perspective where things start to go south.  We're paying the same premium to live in CS as you would in Irvine (yes, the tax rate here with mello roos is 1.8-1.9%), so if I don't see a comparable level of progress, the costs begin to outweigh the benefits.

Thanks Dr. bones for that therapy session. :)  Now buy my house...

So you bought during the peak?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 18, 2015, 10:29:36 AM
All I got from these last 2 or 3 pages is that Irvine > Tustin.

#SorryQwerts

Haha. I got that as well as 1) gasman needs therapy and 2) why isn't qwerty getting out too?  Place sounds terrible. #sorryqwerts

Well from experience I can tell you this, If you don't like where you live, get out before your kids join school.  We are in TUSD and that was one of the primary reason we couldn't take the plunge on PP.  If we had I would be sitting on a ton of equity now :D.  Eventhough it is only about 5 miles from School, with two people working, every minute is a premium in the mornings on school days.

Confused. Bc you don't want your kid to switch schools?  Or they can stay at the same school, but the drive would be longer?

We did't want the kids to switch school.  Our hope was that since they have only a few years left to finish (and since they are loved by the teachers  ;D) they will let  them stay where they are, a risk I know but I was ready to take that risk.  But when adding the commute time, the risk became intolerable for my spouse. :'(
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 18, 2015, 10:31:34 AM
So you bought during the peak?

Not really...I bought about 1/2-way into the slowdown in '08.  The early adopters in CS actually got burned pretty hard...ours depreciated a bit like everyone else, but things have bounced back.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on March 18, 2015, 10:33:23 AM
:) I'm definitely painting a gloomier picture than reality.  Location of CS is definitely convenient, and our neighbors are amazing.  There's a lot of diversity in this area as well, which is nice to see.  From a micro standpoint, the houses here are really nice, and I've enjoyed mine for the last 7 years.  The parks in CS are well maintained, and the amenities are solid.

It's when you start to look at things from a macro perspective where things start to go south.  We're paying the same premium to live in CS as you would in Irvine (yes, the tax rate here with mello roos is 1.8-1.9%), so if I don't see a comparable level of progress, the costs begin to outweigh the benefits.

Thanks Dr. bones for that therapy session. :)  Now buy my house...

I love how you end your posts with "buy my house" after you sell it SO well  >:D

But in all seriousness, hope you get out and get into what you want.  Thanks for the education into CS esp since I don't know much about it at all.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 10:34:56 AM
bones - i can always give you a personal tour of CS, very personal :-)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on March 18, 2015, 10:35:39 AM
All I got from these last 2 or 3 pages is that Irvine > Tustin.

#SorryQwerts

Haha. I got that as well as 1) gasman needs therapy and 2) why isn't qwerty getting out too?  Place sounds terrible. #sorryqwerts

Well from experience I can tell you this, If you don't like where you live, get out before your kids join school.  We are in TUSD and that was one of the primary reason we couldn't take the plunge on PP.  If we had I would be sitting on a ton of equity now :D.  Eventhough it is only about 5 miles from School, with two people working, every minute is a premium in the mornings on school days.

Confused. Bc you don't want your kid to switch schools?  Or they can stay at the same school, but the drive would be longer?

We did't want the kids to switch school.  Our hope was that since they have only a few years left to finish (and since they are loved by the teachers  ;D) they will let  them stay where they are, a risk I know but I was ready to take that risk.  But when adding the commute time, the risk became intolerable for my spouse. :'(

Another takeaway:I think the only ppl that wears pants on this forum is me and socal 8)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 18, 2015, 10:36:18 AM
I love how you end your posts with "buy my house" after you sell it SO well  >:D

But in all seriousness, hope you get out and get into what you want.  Thanks for the education into CS esp since I don't know much about it at all.

:) I really don't think my pool of potential buyers is on TI.  Honestly, if I went out of the way to sell this area, I'd probably need to change my name to Paris<3sCS. jk
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 10:37:22 AM
Another takeaway:I think the only ppl that wears pants on this forum is me and socal 8)

dont forget me!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gasman on March 18, 2015, 10:37:32 AM
bones - i can always give you a personal tour of CS, very personal :-)

I'm still waiting for my double-finger-gun greeting... #notfeelingthelove
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on March 18, 2015, 10:38:18 AM
Another takeaway:I think the only ppl that wears pants on this forum is me and socal 8)

dont forget me!

You don't wear pants.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 18, 2015, 10:49:45 AM


Another takeaway:I think the only ppl that wears pants on this forum is me and socal 8)

One more takeaway: The people on this forum who don't wear pants are the progressive thinkers that subscribe to the idea important decisions are a no-go if both don't agree

(also another takeaway, eventhough I hate to admit it - If you can't buy the property on your income alone you are forced to become a progressive thinker  :'(
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Happiness on March 18, 2015, 10:57:27 AM
im only going on two years and my place doesnt back to edinger, our location is very good within columbus square, we dont have any road noise from edinger/red hill.  i really like our house, our floor plan is one of the better ones out there. 3,000 sq ft, 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, loft, great room, dining room, 3 car garage. we also really like the central location. getting to target/costco takes less than 5 minutes, south coast plaza is less than 10 minutes, plenty of food places around, quick freeway access. im not hung up on IUSD like most folks here, a really nice sports park is opening summer of 2016 as well.  if the local elementary school doesnt open up by fall of 2018 then i will have to trek to myford or one of those TUSD in northern Tustin/Irvine but that is not for another 3 years.  i actually dont mind the lack of development, except the strip mall with the grocery store on kensington/edinger that hasnt happened because we do have to go to the ralphs on jamboree or culver. otherwise less neighbors/traffic.

Damn, you're doing well for a 37 yr old.  A lot of 37 yr olds nowadays still live with their parents.  Just go to Whole Foods instead of driving all the way to Ralphs, prices are not that different.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 18, 2015, 11:03:45 AM
its not as bad as it sounds [...]
Justify!!!

Quote
i actually dont mind the lack of development, except the strip mall with the grocery store on kensington/edinger that hasnt happened because we do have to go to the ralphs on jamboree or culver. otherwise less neighbors/traffic.
Why not get groceries at the Walmart? Be with your people!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on March 18, 2015, 11:05:28 AM
its not as bad as it sounds [...]
Justify!!!

Quote
i actually dont mind the lack of development, except the strip mall with the grocery store on kensington/edinger that hasnt happened because we do have to go to the ralphs on jamboree or culver. otherwise less neighbors/traffic.
Why not get groceries at the Walmart? Be with your people!

Bc he's white on the inside!!!  Too brown to shop at WF. Too white to shop at Walmart. Thus Ralph's :)

His yellow better half can do all 3 :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 11:12:34 AM
Damn, you're doing well for a 37 yr old.  A lot of 37 yr olds nowadays still live with their parents.  Just go to Whole Foods instead of driving all the way to Ralphs, prices are not that different.

i hate whole foods, its not about the prices. the food sucks here. i bought cinnamon roles once here and even those sucked.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 11:14:12 AM
Why not get groceries at the Walmart? Be with your people!

im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood  :-)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 18, 2015, 11:20:15 AM
Why not get groceries at the Walmart? Be with your people!

im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood  :-)
I am surprised that Hispanics are already not in your neighborhood.  At LA Fitness in Jamboree, I could tell that there has been a slow but steady influx of Hispanics and now they are probably the majority there.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on March 18, 2015, 11:24:07 AM


Another takeaway:I think the only ppl that wears pants on this forum is me and socal 8)

One more takeaway: The people on this forum who don't wear pants are the progressive thinkers that subscribe to the idea important decisions are a no-go if both don't agree

(also another takeaway, eventhough I hate to admit it - If you can't buy the property on your income alone you are forced to become a progressive thinker  :'(

Sooooooo what you are saying is you really don't wear the pants.... :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 18, 2015, 11:29:22 AM


Another takeaway:I think the only ppl that wears pants on this forum is me and socal 8)

One more takeaway: The people on this forum who don't wear pants are the progressive thinkers that subscribe to the idea important decisions are a no-go if both don't agree

(also another takeaway, eventhough I hate to admit it - If you can't buy the property on your income alone you are forced to become a progressive thinker  :'(

Sooooooo what you are saying is you really don't wear the pants.... :)
No, I am claiming to be enlightened and a progressive thinker
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: SoCal on March 18, 2015, 11:40:24 AM
im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood  :-)

(http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c144/duke1676/sanctuary/iStock_000009031296XSmall-1-1.jpg)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 18, 2015, 11:41:40 AM
Why not get groceries at the Walmart? Be with your people!

im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood  :-)
I am surprised that Hispanics are already not in your neighborhood.  At LA Fitness in Jamboree, I could tell that there has been a slow but steady influx of Hispanics and now they are probably the majority there.

I am glad someone noticed that too :)

Got a lot of the older vatos using the squat rack to curl... Come on homie take that crap back to 24 hour fitness by south coast
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Happiness on March 18, 2015, 12:02:57 PM
Why not get groceries at the Walmart? Be with your people!

im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood  :-)

Guess I'll tell my low rider club that we shouldn't meet at the District this weekend.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: lnc on March 18, 2015, 01:20:52 PM
im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood  :-)

Does gardeners count? :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 18, 2015, 01:21:54 PM
im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood  :-)

Does gardeners count? :)
If they count you probably will have to move out of USA >:D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 01:28:59 PM
im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood  :-)

Does gardeners count? :)

i was going to qualify it for the gardeners, of course they dont count, where would i live?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 01:29:27 PM
Got a lot of the older vatos using the squat rack to curl... Come on homie take that crap back to 24 hour fitness by south coast

where else are you going to curl 135 on a straight bar?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 18, 2015, 01:43:57 PM
Got a lot of the older vatos using the squat rack to curl... Come on homie take that crap back to 24 hour fitness by south coast

where else are you going to curl 135 on a straight bar?

I'm serious man! This cholo was curling like 25's and didn't collar his weights and nearly dropped them on me while I was DLing... He looked at me and asked why I'm DLing by the rack. 

One of the trainers came over and ask Jose why he was curling at the rack and pointed to the machines  :P
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 02:42:00 PM
Got a lot of the older vatos using the squat rack to curl... Come on homie take that crap back to 24 hour fitness by south coast

where else are you going to curl 135 on a straight bar?

I'm serious man! This cholo was curling like 25's and didn't collar his weights and nearly dropped them on me while I was DLing... He looked at me and asked why I'm DLing by the rack. 

One of the trainers came over and ask Jose why he was curling at the rack and pointed to the machines  :P

next time you see him you need to go thug life on him like this


Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 18, 2015, 05:39:06 PM
I may have found the best Irvine home listing! The agent's brilliant description makes me feel so rich!!

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: lnc on March 18, 2015, 05:51:32 PM
im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood  :-)

Does gardeners count? :)
i was going to qualify it for the gardeners, of course they dont count, where would i live?

Japan.  Remember they love qodzilla and you're going to be big in Japan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tl6u2NASUzU).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Paris on March 18, 2015, 05:53:19 PM
I may have found the best Irvine home listing! The agent's brilliant description makes me feel so rich!!

LOL!  ;D Is this for real? They spelled "dessert" wrong. an entertaining listing for sure
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on March 18, 2015, 05:57:09 PM
I may have found the best Irvine home listing! The agent's brilliant description makes me feel so rich!!

Good find - that's really funny
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 19, 2015, 07:13:13 AM
Oh it's real lol!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: rkp on March 19, 2015, 10:46:09 AM
FARM - great find.  i think that was written by the owner.  homecoin seems to be some sort of self serve MLS tool.  now they just need better pics and change the price to have more 8's to sell by end of week!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: rkp on March 19, 2015, 10:54:46 AM
wow $95 flat fee MLS listing.  talk about a squeeze on the 3% model!

http://www2.homecoin.com/services/mls-listing/CA/Orange-County/

(http://i62.tinypic.com/14w3gwi.png)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: The California Court Company on March 19, 2015, 11:01:29 AM
what the owner wrote must be a joke. $700k is not even 1%er's house, more like their servants'. And in Silicon Valley, it can only buy 2 BR condo in the most coveted neighborhoods, if you are lucky.

FARM - great find.  i think that was written by the owner.  homecoin seems to be some sort of self serve MLS tool.  now they just need better pics and change the price to have more 8's to sell by end of week!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 20, 2015, 07:47:26 AM
My thoughts exactly TCCC.  8)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ps9 on July 29, 2015, 09:05:34 PM
707 active listings in Redfin, total 949 if you include pending status.  So we're in a neutral market?  Lots of resale competition in my neighborhood that I noticed.  Not much movement recently, prices gonna drop soon or is everyone just waiting for BP to open?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 29, 2015, 10:17:39 PM
707 active listings in Redfin, total 949 if you include pending status.  So we're in a neutral market?  Lots of resale competition in my neighborhood that I noticed.  Not much movement recently, prices gonna drop soon or is everyone just waiting for BP to open?

We had 261 closings in June in Irvine so that still leaves us less 3 months of inventory (weak sellers market).  I'm seeing more and more lofty/WTF listings pop up and they are just lingering on the market (I even question if those are real sellers).  New homes seems to be selling at a decent pace so the market isn't really softening from what I see.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: lnc on August 12, 2015, 08:44:42 PM
707 active listings in Redfin, total 949 if you include pending status.  So we're in a neutral market?  Lots of resale competition in my neighborhood that I noticed.  Not much movement recently, prices gonna drop soon or is everyone just waiting for BP to open?

Looks like entire OC's inventory are also up too. 

Lansner: Are homesellers anxious or eager to cash in? (http://www.ocregister.com/articles/percent-676481-listings-average.html)
Quote
Orange County homeowners are late to the party this year, with a summertime listing spree pushing the inventory of homes for sale to a 10-month high long after buying peaked in early spring.

The latest edition of Steve Thomas’ ReportsOnHousing shows the supply of homes for sale rose 27 percent in the 16 weeks from April 9 to July 30. At the end of July, Orange County had 7,116 homes listed for sale, compared with 6,935 homes two weeks earlier – an increase of 2.6 percent.

The surge in new listings comes amid a seasonal slowdown in house hunting. In the 30 days ended July 30, 2,698 homes went into escrow. That’s the lowest demand since February, and it’s down from 2,810 in the 30 days ended two weeks earlier – a drop of 4 percent.

Eight other markets have supply increases of 40 percent or more since April 9:

• Los Alamitos, $786,000 average price: 19 listings, up 58 percent.

• Mission Viejo, $725,000 average price: 279 listings, up 57 percent.

• Dove Canyon, $960,000 average price: 28 listings, up 56 percent.

• Cypress, $624,000 average price: 70 listings, up 49 percent.

• Fullerton, $810,000 average price: 259 listings, up 45 percent.

• Ladera Ranch, $1.2 million average price: 172 listings, up 45 percent.

• Laguna Hills, $1.3 million average price: 117 listings, up 43 percent.

• Irvine, $1.2 million average price: 688 listings, up 42 percent.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: lnc on September 23, 2016, 11:15:52 AM
Here's August home sale data from CoreLogic.  Just thought some here might find this data interesting. 

http://www.corelogic.com/solutions/configurable-real-estate-data-reports.aspx

For month of August (2016), 288 total home sold (115 SFR and 173 Condo).  Area Code 92603 had 20 SFR sold with median price of $1.78 million and median $/s.f of $600/s.f.  :o
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: acf on September 23, 2016, 11:47:32 AM
Condos are up 10% for 92620!!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 19, 2018, 04:59:11 AM
By popular demand, I figured this was a long time coming. There’s been a lot of click bait articles out there that real estate, including Southern California real estate, is “showing cracks” in various markets so I wanted to provide data on how the Irvine real estate market is performing. 

July 2018 sales were down 1% from June July 2017 but rebounded 4% from the drop of 11% in June 2018 (versus June 2017).  From a trailing 12-month perspective Irvine sales are down 2% or 47 transactions.  Inventory as of 7/31/18 increased 13% from 7/31/17 but remains 4% lower than inventory as of 7/31/16.  Based upon this data, we have 3 months of inventory using July 2018 sales and 2.66 months of inventory using the past 3 months which remains a weak seller’s market.  Inventory levels peak in July/August like I’ve mentioned in other threads.  Note that the inventory levels in the schedule are higher than what I saw when I pulled up the total active inventory in Irvine as of 7/31/18 which was 687 but I decided to use these higher figures to be conservative (the conservative CPA in me…haha).

So what does all this mean and where are we possibly heading?  Well, it’s clear that the market has cooled off a bit with an increase in inventory and a small decline in sales.  But the market cooling off isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it’ll allow for prices to flatten out and give buyers a chance to buy homes.  Properties that show well and that are prices right still go into escrow quickly and many of them with multiple offers.  The sub $1m market is doing better than the $1m+ market but “unicorn” $1m+ properties with larger and/or view lots sell quickly as well.  This is most evident from me hearing that several home builders have increased their broker co-ops on their $1m+ homes in the past 4-6 weeks. The economy is still providing a tailwind with a strong job market, increasing wages, and a strong stock market so I don’t foresee that prices will drop in the near term.  The August data will be a good indicator if we are continuing to soften or if we are flattening out.

On the 30-year fixed interest rate loan front, we have seen rates drop from around 4.50% at the end of July to as around 4.25%-4.375%.  Rates got as high as 4.75% in July from what I heard.  Rates dripped due to heartburn due to tariff talk and the Turkish currency concerns.  Rates on 7/1 ARM loans are down to 3.25-3.50% from basically being around 4% in late July.  The FED will most likely rate their Fed Funds Rate in Sept by another 0.25% but that really has no impact on longer term mortgage rates.  I’ve been telling my clients that we’ll see 4% before we see 5% in rates so let’s see if I’ll be right.

Below are some charts for the infographics fans out there.  I’ll be updating this data every month going forward.


Chart of the Irvine sales volume since Jan. 2008

http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5Rk-zq8.PNG?w=800&h=600


Chart of the Irvine inventory levels since Jan. 2008

http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5R9-Y9X?w=800&h=600
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kings on August 19, 2018, 05:54:37 AM
interesting that inventory levels were near 2013 lows just 8 months ago.  the "summer swing" in inventory (winter-summer) has just barely passed the increase we saw in 2013, so it will be fun to see when we hit the top and levels begin to decrease into this year's fall/winter.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: lnc on August 19, 2018, 07:28:49 AM
Thank You USCT!  Who else would wake up 4 am in the Sunday morning and post this good info. :)

I'm re-post USCT's inventory level graph here, the graph of the day!

(https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=844.0;attach=6996;image)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on August 19, 2018, 09:08:10 AM
So, the hot season with hot home selling need to cool down.
I hate hotness We will enjoy a little less noise from housing mania.

Good!!!!

I am seeing drastically reduced in late payment to bankers which translate to people (homeowners) have a healthy financial hold of their money. Sure, you will also have some sellers that want to move to a bigger house and trade up, therefore I see some optimistic asking price. But I see little to none that must sell and dropping price to avoid foreclosure like in 2007-2010 era.

All I have to say is if you wait, make sure to plan your stay in a comfortable and livable neighborhood just in case it becomes an extended situation.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 19, 2018, 12:18:58 PM
Thank You USCT!  Who else would wake up 4 am in the Sunday morning and post this good info. :)

I'm re-post USCT's inventory level graph here, the graph of the day!


I couldn't sleep so I figured I'd do something productive while I was up.  haha
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 19, 2018, 12:24:09 PM
So, the hot season with hot home selling need to cool down.
I hate hotness We will enjoy a little less noise from housing mania.

Good!!!!

I am seeing drastically reduced in late payment to bankers which translate to people (homeowners) have a healthy financial hold of their money. Sure, you will also have some sellers that want to move to a bigger house and trade up, therefore I see some optimistic asking price. But I see little to none that must sell and dropping price to avoid foreclosure like in 2007-2010 era.

All I have to say is if you wait, make sure to plan your stay in a comfortable and livable neighborhood just in case it becomes an extended situation.

Agreed, there are some sellers who still think we are in a stronger seller market than we really are hence their highly optimistic listing prices.  Some of those sellers are not motivated to sell and just looking for a sucker to offer them a "move out" price and if they don't get that number they'll just take the home off the market.  The motivated sellers that want to sell but started at a highly optimistic price are periodically reducing their asking prices.  There's nothing wrong with having a more neutral market with flattish prices where there aren't multiple offers left and right. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Lallo on August 24, 2018, 11:14:08 PM
Although I believe the top has been reached,I’m starting to think we may not see a big drop in prices.  Currently I’m seeing homes sell at asking or slightly below. If the home is in the 600k range and below, they may get multiple offers depending on desirability and condition of the home. Also,I’ve seen multiple homes taken off the market and put up for lease. So, IMHO, if you’re thinking of buying be realistic on how much of a reduction you may get and if you decide to wait, run the numbers and see if what you pay in rent vs what it cost to own makes it worth waiting.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: newbieinirvine on August 28, 2018, 11:49:18 AM
Thanks for the data and stats @USCTrojanCPA. Having gone through the GRC and massive run-up since then, do you think the combination of these items below will signal a bigger drop AND slowdown in the market:

• limitations on/capping of SALT deductions & the IRS enforcing it on taxpayers for 2018 (probably won't see the effects until taxpayers file 2018 taxes early next year)
• beginning of the plateau of SFH (detached $1M-1.5M) prices in the summer
• less FCBs buying? (not sure if there are any stats on this buyer pool)
• rates rising maybe .25% per quarter/semiannually affecting cost of capital
• possible drop in corporate earnings and equities correction causing jobs to dip in OC/Irvine?

Anecdotally and not driven by any data analyses at all, I've just been seeing more and more price drops ($30-45K increments) on Zillow/Redfin/Realtor for the $1.1-1.4M detached SFHs. Equating to a 2-3% price decrease from list prices, but will it drop further perhaps even 5-10% (gasp!)?
 
By popular demand, I figured this was a long time coming. There’s been a lot of click bait articles out there that real estate, including Southern California real estate, is “showing cracks” in various markets so I wanted to provide data on how the Irvine real estate market is performing. 

July 2018 sales were down 1% from June July 2017 but rebounded 4% from the drop of 11% in June 2018 (versus June 2017).  From a trailing 12-month perspective Irvine sales are down 2% or 47 transactions.  Inventory as of 7/31/18 increased 13% from 7/31/17 but remains 4% lower than inventory as of 7/31/16.  Based upon this data, we have 3 months of inventory using July 2018 sales and 2.66 months of inventory using the past 3 months which remains a weak seller’s market.  Inventory levels peak in July/August like I’ve mentioned in other threads.  Note that the inventory levels in the schedule are higher than what I saw when I pulled up the total active inventory in Irvine as of 7/31/18 which was 687 but I decided to use these higher figures to be conservative (the conservative CPA in me…haha).

So what does all this mean and where are we possibly heading?  Well, it’s clear that the market has cooled off a bit with an increase in inventory and a small decline in sales.  But the market cooling off isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it’ll allow for prices to flatten out and give buyers a chance to buy homes.  Properties that show well and that are prices right still go into escrow quickly and many of them with multiple offers.  The sub $1m market is doing better than the $1m+ market but “unicorn” $1m+ properties with larger and/or view lots sell quickly as well.  This is most evident from me hearing that several home builders have increased their broker co-ops on their $1m+ homes in the past 4-6 weeks. The economy is still providing a tailwind with a strong job market, increasing wages, and a strong stock market so I don’t foresee that prices will drop in the near term.  The August data will be a good indicator if we are continuing to soften or if we are flattening out.

On the 30-year fixed interest rate loan front, we have seen rates drop from around 4.50% at the end of July to as around 4.25%-4.375%.  Rates got as high as 4.75% in July from what I heard.  Rates dripped due to heartburn due to tariff talk and the Turkish currency concerns.  Rates on 7/1 ARM loans are down to 3.25-3.50% from basically being around 4% in late July.  The FED will most likely rate their Fed Funds Rate in Sept by another 0.25% but that really has no impact on longer term mortgage rates.  I’ve been telling my clients that we’ll see 4% before we see 5% in rates so let’s see if I’ll be right.

Below are some charts for the infographics fans out there.  I’ll be updating this data every month going forward.


Chart of the Irvine sales volume since Jan. 2008

http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5Rk-zq8.PNG?w=800&h=600


Chart of the Irvine inventory levels since Jan. 2008

http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5R9-Y9X?w=800&h=600
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on August 28, 2018, 05:15:55 PM
Thanks for the data and stats @USCTrojanCPA. Having gone through the GRC and massive run-up since then, do you think the combination of these items below will signal a bigger drop AND slowdown in the market:

• limitations on/capping of SALT deductions & the IRS enforcing it on taxpayers for 2018 (probably won't see the effects until taxpayers file 2018 taxes early next year)
• beginning of the plateau of SFH (detached $1M-1.5M) prices in the summer
• less FCBs buying? (not sure if there are any stats on this buyer pool)
• rates rising maybe .25% per quarter/semiannually affecting cost of capital
• possible drop in corporate earnings and equities correction causing jobs to dip in OC/Irvine?

Anecdotally and not driven by any data analyses at all, I've just been seeing more and more price drops ($30-45K increments) on Zillow/Redfin/Realtor for the $1.1-1.4M detached SFHs. Equating to a 2-3% price decrease from list prices, but will it drop further perhaps even 5-10% (gasp!)?


Many would argue we are already seeing a slowdown.  Likely more to come.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 29, 2018, 06:55:24 AM
Why is it an indicator of a slowdown? Look at USC's graphs, sales and volume always go down after summer.

Can it just be an indicator that summer is over... the real estate groundhog?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: newbieinirvine on August 29, 2018, 11:55:04 AM
By popular demand, I figured this was a long time coming. There’s been a lot of click bait articles out there that real estate, including Southern California real estate, is “showing cracks” in various markets so I wanted to provide data on how the Irvine real estate market is performing. 

July 2018 sales were down 1% from June July 2017 but rebounded 4% from the drop of 11% in June 2018 (versus June 2017).  From a trailing 12-month perspective Irvine sales are down 2% or 47 transactions.  Inventory as of 7/31/18 increased 13% from 7/31/17 but remains 4% lower than inventory as of 7/31/16.  Based upon this data, we have 3 months of inventory using July 2018 sales and 2.66 months of inventory using the past 3 months which remains a weak seller’s market.  Inventory levels peak in July/August like I’ve mentioned in other threads.  Note that the inventory levels in the schedule are higher than what I saw when I pulled up the total active inventory in Irvine as of 7/31/18 which was 687 but I decided to use these higher figures to be conservative (the conservative CPA in me…haha).

So what does all this mean and where are we possibly heading?  Well, it’s clear that the market has cooled off a bit with an increase in inventory and a small decline in sales.  But the market cooling off isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it’ll allow for prices to flatten out and give buyers a chance to buy homes.  Properties that show well and that are prices right still go into escrow quickly and many of them with multiple offers.  The sub $1m market is doing better than the $1m+ market but “unicorn” $1m+ properties with larger and/or view lots sell quickly as well.  This is most evident from me hearing that several home builders have increased their broker co-ops on their $1m+ homes in the past 4-6 weeks. The economy is still providing a tailwind with a strong job market, increasing wages, and a strong stock market so I don’t foresee that prices will drop in the near term.  The August data will be a good indicator if we are continuing to soften or if we are flattening out.

On the 30-year fixed interest rate loan front, we have seen rates drop from around 4.50% at the end of July to as around 4.25%-4.375%.  Rates got as high as 4.75% in July from what I heard.  Rates dripped due to heartburn due to tariff talk and the Turkish currency concerns.  Rates on 7/1 ARM loans are down to 3.25-3.50% from basically being around 4% in late July.  The FED will most likely rate their Fed Funds Rate in Sept by another 0.25% but that really has no impact on longer term mortgage rates.  I’ve been telling my clients that we’ll see 4% before we see 5% in rates so let’s see if I’ll be right.

Below are some charts for the infographics fans out there.  I’ll be updating this data every month going forward.


Chart of the Irvine sales volume since Jan. 2008

http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5Rk-zq8.PNG?w=800&h=600


Chart of the Irvine inventory levels since Jan. 2008

http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5R9-Y9X?w=800&h=600

Post summer cool-off maybe but I think it's softening overall. I guess we can wait for
USCTrojanCPA to post the August data and subsequent months to track and see how it plays out!

I'm still holding on cash and waiting to buy...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Liar Loan on August 29, 2018, 01:40:45 PM
Year-over-year stats are down which means it's not just a seasonal effect.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 29, 2018, 01:43:33 PM
Year-over-year stats are down which means it's not just a seasonal effect.

But could still be a cyclical one?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Liar Loan on August 29, 2018, 01:53:01 PM
Year-over-year stats are down which means it's not just a seasonal effect.

But could still be a cyclical one?

Sometimes there are one year blips as part of a larger cycle.  The stats for 2014 weren't good either and a lot of people called a premature top. 

My feeling is you won't have another RE downturn until significant job losses start as a lead in to recession.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 29, 2018, 03:25:43 PM
Thanks for the data and stats @USCTrojanCPA. Having gone through the GRC and massive run-up since then, do you think the combination of these items below will signal a bigger drop AND slowdown in the market:

• limitations on/capping of SALT deductions & the IRS enforcing it on taxpayers for 2018 (probably won't see the effects until taxpayers file 2018 taxes early next year)
• beginning of the plateau of SFH (detached $1M-1.5M) prices in the summer
• less FCBs buying? (not sure if there are any stats on this buyer pool)
• rates rising maybe .25% per quarter/semiannually affecting cost of capital
• possible drop in corporate earnings and equities correction causing jobs to dip in OC/Irvine?

Anecdotally and not driven by any data analyses at all, I've just been seeing more and more price drops ($30-45K increments) on Zillow/Redfin/Realtor for the $1.1-1.4M detached SFHs. Equating to a 2-3% price decrease from list prices, but will it drop further perhaps even 5-10% (gasp!)?
 
By popular demand, I figured this was a long time coming. There’s been a lot of click bait articles out there that real estate, including Southern California real estate, is “showing cracks” in various markets so I wanted to provide data on how the Irvine real estate market is performing. 

July 2018 sales were down 1% from June July 2017 but rebounded 4% from the drop of 11% in June 2018 (versus June 2017).  From a trailing 12-month perspective Irvine sales are down 2% or 47 transactions.  Inventory as of 7/31/18 increased 13% from 7/31/17 but remains 4% lower than inventory as of 7/31/16.  Based upon this data, we have 3 months of inventory using July 2018 sales and 2.66 months of inventory using the past 3 months which remains a weak seller’s market.  Inventory levels peak in July/August like I’ve mentioned in other threads.  Note that the inventory levels in the schedule are higher than what I saw when I pulled up the total active inventory in Irvine as of 7/31/18 which was 687 but I decided to use these higher figures to be conservative (the conservative CPA in me…haha).

So what does all this mean and where are we possibly heading?  Well, it’s clear that the market has cooled off a bit with an increase in inventory and a small decline in sales.  But the market cooling off isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it’ll allow for prices to flatten out and give buyers a chance to buy homes.  Properties that show well and that are prices right still go into escrow quickly and many of them with multiple offers.  The sub $1m market is doing better than the $1m+ market but “unicorn” $1m+ properties with larger and/or view lots sell quickly as well.  This is most evident from me hearing that several home builders have increased their broker co-ops on their $1m+ homes in the past 4-6 weeks. The economy is still providing a tailwind with a strong job market, increasing wages, and a strong stock market so I don’t foresee that prices will drop in the near term.  The August data will be a good indicator if we are continuing to soften or if we are flattening out.

On the 30-year fixed interest rate loan front, we have seen rates drop from around 4.50% at the end of July to as around 4.25%-4.375%.  Rates got as high as 4.75% in July from what I heard.  Rates dripped due to heartburn due to tariff talk and the Turkish currency concerns.  Rates on 7/1 ARM loans are down to 3.25-3.50% from basically being around 4% in late July.  The FED will most likely rate their Fed Funds Rate in Sept by another 0.25% but that really has no impact on longer term mortgage rates.  I’ve been telling my clients that we’ll see 4% before we see 5% in rates so let’s see if I’ll be right.

Below are some charts for the infographics fans out there.  I’ll be updating this data every month going forward.


Chart of the Irvine sales volume since Jan. 2008

http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5Rk-zq8.PNG?w=800&h=600


Chart of the Irvine inventory levels since Jan. 2008

http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5R9-Y9X?w=800&h=600

Sure, happy to provide the data and my take on it.  I think we are just cooling off not melting down.  Prices have risen 4-8% since the start of the year and I think the market is not beginning to digest these gains.  Also, most of the price reductions that you see are on homes that are/were overpriced in the first place so that's not really a great indicator of where market prices are heading.  Sellers thought that the market was stronger than they thought and prices their homes too high, simple as that.  I'll be keeping a close eye on sales along with inventory levels to see if we are flatting out or cooling off further. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 29, 2018, 03:28:02 PM
Year-over-year stats are down which means it's not just a seasonal effect.

But could still be a cyclical one?

Sometimes there are one year blips as part of a larger cycle.  The stats for 2014 weren't good either and a lot of people called a premature top. 

My feeling is you won't have another RE downturn until significant job losses start as a lead in to recession.

Let's see how many of those "optimistic" sellers pull their homes off the market and how many of real sellers.  If inventory levels keep going up or don't drop going into Oct then I think that's a signal that prices might be heading lower.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: HMart on August 31, 2018, 10:17:19 AM
Year-over-year stats are down which means it's not just a seasonal effect.

But could still be a cyclical one?

Sometimes there are one year blips as part of a larger cycle.  The stats for 2014 weren't good either and a lot of people called a premature top. 

My feeling is you won't have another RE downturn until significant job losses start as a lead in to recession.

Let's see how many of those "optimistic" sellers pull their homes off the market and how many of real sellers.  If inventory levels keep going up or don't drop going into Oct then I think that's a signal that prices might be heading lower.

A friend of mine just pulled his high 600s townhome in East Irvine off the market since it didn't sell right away. He's a real seller and just one data point, but I feel like this kind of offering was really hot just a year ago.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 31, 2018, 10:20:15 AM
Year-over-year stats are down which means it's not just a seasonal effect.

But could still be a cyclical one?

Sometimes there are one year blips as part of a larger cycle.  The stats for 2014 weren't good either and a lot of people called a premature top. 

My feeling is you won't have another RE downturn until significant job losses start as a lead in to recession.

Let's see how many of those "optimistic" sellers pull their homes off the market and how many of real sellers.  If inventory levels keep going up or don't drop going into Oct then I think that's a signal that prices might be heading lower.

A friend of mine just pulled his high 600s townhome in East Irvine off the market since it didn't sell right away. He's a real seller and just one data point, but I feel like this kind of offering was really hot just a year ago.

He may have been a "real" seller but he wasn't a "motivated" seller which means that he didn't need to sell the townhome hence taking it off the market.  My point is that there isn't a lot of "motivated" sellers out there today hence you'll see more people like your friend and "non-real" sellers pulling their listings off the market once they realize they won't get the price they thought/wanted to get.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: newbieinirvine on August 31, 2018, 01:46:26 PM
Year-over-year stats are down which means it's not just a seasonal effect.

But could still be a cyclical one?

Sometimes there are one year blips as part of a larger cycle.  The stats for 2014 weren't good either and a lot of people called a premature top. 

My feeling is you won't have another RE downturn until significant job losses start as a lead in to recession.

Let's see how many of those "optimistic" sellers pull their homes off the market and how many of real sellers.  If inventory levels keep going up or don't drop going into Oct then I think that's a signal that prices might be heading lower.

A friend of mine just pulled his high 600s townhome in East Irvine off the market since it didn't sell right away. He's a real seller and just one data point, but I feel like this kind of offering was really hot just a year ago.

He may have been a "real" seller but he wasn't a "motivated" seller which means that he didn't need to sell the townhome hence taking it off the market.  My point is that there isn't a lot of "motivated" sellers out there today hence you'll see more people like your friend and "non-real" sellers pulling their listings off the market once they realize they won't get the price they thought/wanted to get.

Maybe we should wait for the ones who bought at peak values and for 2018 taxes to be filed then there will be more "motivated" sellers  :o
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Agent Joe on September 02, 2018, 09:49:59 PM
Unless you are trading real estate like stocks, maybe we should focus on longer term? Where do you think Irvine real estate prices are heading in 10, 20, 30 years?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: qwerty on September 03, 2018, 09:47:10 AM
Unless you are trading real estate like stocks, maybe we should focus on longer term? Where do you think Irvine real estate prices are heading in 10, 20, 30 years?

Up, just like every other place in the world.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on September 03, 2018, 10:27:26 AM
Unless you are trading real estate like stocks, maybe we should focus on longer term? Where do you think Irvine real estate prices are heading in 10, 20, 30 years?
Up, like any other desirable places to live.

But should we really be focusing on 10,20,30 years? newer statistics show people change homes about every 5 years.
Staying Nimble financially and taking advantage of the economic cycle can mean achieving financial freedom decades ahead.
The buy and hold for decades concept is old and outdated in my opinion. The fear of missing out is overblown especially in a city like Irvine.  People can name what they like by village/tract/model, you can almost be certain that the house you want will pop up in resale someday.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 03, 2018, 10:40:57 AM
Unless you are trading real estate like stocks, maybe we should focus on longer term? Where do you think Irvine real estate prices are heading in 10, 20, 30 years?
Up, like any other desirable places to live.

But should we really be focusing on 10,20,30 years? newer statistics show people change homes about every 5 years.
Staying Nimble financially and taking advantage of the economic cycle can mean achieving financial freedom decades ahead.
The buy and hold for decades concept is old and outdated in my opinion. The fear of missing out is overblown especially in a city like Irvine.  People can name what they like by village/tract/model, you can almost be certain that the house you want will pop up in resale someday.

I think people are much less long-term focused today than they were 10-20 years ago because of websites like Redfin and Zillow which show the current "guestimate" of what their home is worth.  Those people like to feel good seeing the value of their home go up.  It is true that people do sell their homes within 5-7 years on average, this is especially true if you are buying your first home (e.g. an attached condo) before getting married and/or having kids.  I tell all of my buyers that they need to focus on the exit strategy because they will sell the home eventually, for some of those buyers it's tough to understand that as they are so focused on buying a home and are baffled that I'm talking about exit strategy.  For me, it's simple...when my clients do well, I do well so it's my job to get into the best home at the best price.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: fortune11 on September 03, 2018, 12:55:19 PM
Unless you are trading real estate like stocks, maybe we should focus on longer term? Where do you think Irvine real estate prices are heading in 10, 20, 30 years?

Up, just like every other place in the world.

Exactly.  The natural tendency of asset prices is to go up with time.  As long as demographics and interest rates are positive , this is just math . I am talking of aggregates here of course. Individual markets may vary. 

But as John Maynard Keynes said -- " In the long run, we are all dead " so who cares : )
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Agent Joe on September 03, 2018, 11:17:23 PM
Unless you are trading real estate like stocks, maybe we should focus on longer term? Where do you think Irvine real estate prices are heading in 10, 20, 30 years?
Up, like any other desirable places to live.

But should we really be focusing on 10,20,30 years? newer statistics show people change homes about every 5 years.
Staying Nimble financially and taking advantage of the economic cycle can mean achieving financial freedom decades ahead.
The buy and hold for decades concept is old and outdated in my opinion. The fear of missing out is overblown especially in a city like Irvine.  People can name what they like by village/tract/model, you can almost be certain that the house you want will pop up in resale someday.

Real estate is a long term investment and we should absolutely focus on 10, 20, 30 years from now. If you are not an investor and simply looking for your primary residence, of course, do what best suits your personal situation. Maybe the best option is to rent, especially if you are not planning to stay there for > 5 years. It takes a lot time and $ to sell real estate (compared to other investments like stocks and ETFs). For an average person, time in the market usually beats timing the market. Also, what do you think the people timing the market are doing while waiting for the market to "correct itself"? Paying rent? So as a property owner, whether the market goes up or down, they win by collecting rent (when people stand on the sidelines) or enjoying value appreciation (when people buy) or both (when the economy is growing).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on September 03, 2018, 11:25:13 PM
To most people buying a house is the biggest financial transaction they will make. So I think people want to make sure they are making the right decision.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on September 04, 2018, 11:19:07 AM
Real estate is a long term investment and we should absolutely focus on 10, 20, 30 years from now. If you are not an investor and simply looking for your primary residence, of course, do what best suits your personal situation. Maybe the best option is to rent, especially if you are not planning to stay there for > 5 years. It takes a lot time and $ to sell real estate (compared to other investments like stocks and ETFs). For an average person, time in the market usually beats timing the market. Also, what do you think the people timing the market are doing while waiting for the market to "correct itself"? Paying rent? So as a property owner, whether the market goes up or down, they win by collecting rent (when people stand on the sidelines) or enjoying value appreciation (when people buy) or both (when the economy is growing).
I agree with some of your points, but I disagree that RE should be a long 10,20,30 year investment. This long buy and hold mindset leads to missed opportunities and mistakes.
I disagree with the sentiment of do what suits your personal situation when buying your primary home if that means the investment consideration part goes out of the window. For a lot of people, their primary home is a hybrid of investment and personal need. Especially first-time home buyers buying in current high Irvine home prices. A lot of these 1st time home buyers are buying close to their max ability to afford.
I strongly disagree with your argument that time in the market beats timing the market.
I am in my late 30s and this is very evident among friends and colleagues in my age group. My best friend was (and still is) one the most successful ones among my age group. He finished school a year early and he already had down payment saved up by his mid-20s. He bought before the crash and compounded his mistake by stretching financially and bought the biggest he could afford. It wasn’t that he was stupid. It was common back then and majority of people back then believed (like a lot of people today) that housing can only go up up and up . Even if the short term looked overheated, the long term 10,20,30 year outlook sold him. I remember standing in his mansion at his house warming party thinking #@$%  I am 10 years behind.
I was not as successful as him. Even took an extra year to get my professional license and did not have down payment saved up until I was almost 30. By then the housing market had turned. So I did the unthinkable thing in your eyes. I paid rent and waited for the market to correct itself. I put my saved down payment and whatever income I had left after paying rent into the equity market. Not because I was clairvoyant or smarter than the average person. The equity market was the only thing working in late 2009 early 2010. I did eventually buy my primary home in 2016, after home prices have gone way up. But, by staying nimble financially  I was able to take advantage of the biggest equity rally in years. I think it’s safe to say as of today, I am years ahead of him to reaching financial freedom. More importantly, I lived the past 8-10 years much more stress free compared to him.
Timing the market is important. Doing a full analysis of opportunity cost & why you are getting into RE today is important. Having an exit strategy, like USC mentioned is important. Focusing on 10,20,30 years for many novice homebuyers will overly simplify a should be complex decision.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on September 04, 2018, 11:47:14 AM
Real estate is a long term investment and we should absolutely focus on 10, 20, 30 years from now. If you are not an investor and simply looking for your primary residence, of course, do what best suits your personal situation. Maybe the best option is to rent, especially if you are not planning to stay there for > 5 years. It takes a lot time and $ to sell real estate (compared to other investments like stocks and ETFs). For an average person, time in the market usually beats timing the market. Also, what do you think the people timing the market are doing while waiting for the market to "correct itself"? Paying rent? So as a property owner, whether the market goes up or down, they win by collecting rent (when people stand on the sidelines) or enjoying value appreciation (when people buy) or both (when the economy is growing).
I agree with some of your points, but I disagree that RE should be a long 10,20,30 year investment. This long buy and hold mindset leads to missed opportunities and mistakes.
I disagree with the sentiment of do what suits your personal situation when buying your primary home if that means the investment consideration part goes out of the window. For a lot of people, their primary home is a hybrid of investment and personal need. Especially first-time home buyers buying in current high Irvine home prices. A lot of these 1st time home buyers are buying close to their max ability to afford.
I strongly disagree with your argument that time in the market beats timing the market.
I am in my late 30s and this is very evident among friends and colleagues in my age group. My best friend was (and still is) one the most successful ones among my age group. He finished school a year early and he already had down payment saved up by his mid-20s. He bought before the crash and compounded his mistake by stretching financially and bought the biggest he could afford. It wasn’t that he was stupid. It was common back then and majority of people back then believed (like a lot of people today) that housing can only go up up and up . Even if the short term looked overheated, the long term 10,20,30 year outlook sold him. I remember standing in his mansion at his house warming party thinking #@$%  I am 10 years behind.
I was not as successful as him. Even took an extra year to get my professional license and did not have down payment saved up until I was almost 30. By then the housing market had turned. So I did the unthinkable thing in your eyes. I paid rent and waited for the market to correct itself. I put my saved down payment and whatever income I had left after paying rent into the equity market. Not because I was clairvoyant or smarter than the average person. The equity market was the only thing working in late 2009 early 2010. I did eventually buy my primary home in 2016, after home prices have gone way up. But, by staying nimble financially  I was able to take advantage of the biggest equity rally in years. I think it’s safe to say as of today, I am years ahead of him to reaching financial freedom. More importantly, I lived the past 8-10 years much more stress free compared to him.
Timing the market is important. Doing a full analysis of opportunity cost & why you are getting into RE today is important. Having an exit strategy, like USC mentioned is important. Focusing on 10,20,30 years for many novice homebuyers will overly simplify a should be complex decision.


I'm with Ken on this one.  For me, I'm all about the exit (3-5 years).  Not to mention, there are a lot more job hopping these days.  We see a lot of job relocation sales on TI alone.  Gone are the days where someone stays in their job (and their house) for 10+ years.  I also think a lot of Irvine isn't from Irvine (as evident by the population growth numbers, I suppose) so a lot of people don't have strong ties to this area which makes picking up and relocating for life quality/job/family/schools that much more prevalent.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paperboyNC on September 04, 2018, 11:49:46 AM
I disagree with the sentiment of do what suits your personal situation when buying your primary home if that means the investment consideration part goes out of the window. For a lot of people, their primary home is a hybrid of investment and personal need. Especially first-time home buyers buying in current high Irvine home prices. A lot of these 1st time home buyers are buying close to their max ability to afford.
I strongly disagree with your argument that time in the market beats timing the market.
I am in my late 30s and this is very evident among friends and colleagues in my age group. My best friend was (and still is) one the most successful ones among my age group. He finished school a year early and he already had down payment saved up by his mid-20s. He bought before the crash and compounded his mistake by stretching financially and bought the biggest he could afford. It wasn’t that he was stupid. It was common back then and majority of people back then believed (like a lot of people today) that housing can only go up up and up . Even if the short term looked overheated, the long term 10,20,30 year outlook sold him. I remember standing in his mansion at his house warming party thinking #@$%  I am 10 years behind.
I was not as successful as him. Even took an extra year to get my professional license and did not have down payment saved up until I was almost 30. By then the housing market had turned. So I did the unthinkable thing in your eyes. I paid rent and waited for the market to correct itself. I put my saved down payment and whatever income I had left after paying rent into the equity market. Not because I was clairvoyant or smarter than the average person. The equity market was the only thing working in late 2009 early 2010. I did eventually buy my primary home in 2016, after home prices have gone way up. But, by staying nimble financially  I was able to take advantage of the biggest equity rally in years. I think it’s safe to say as of today, I am years ahead of him to reaching financial freedom. More importantly, I lived the past 8-10 years much more stress free compared to him.
Timing the market is important. Doing a full analysis of opportunity cost & why you are getting into RE today is important. Having an exit strategy, like USC mentioned is important. Focusing on 10,20,30 years for many novice homebuyers will overly simplify a should be complex decision.

Great points. Of course 2005/2006 were extreme once in a life time situations. I was in a similar situation as your friend as I had enough money saved up for a downpayment by my mid-20s and everyone advised to buy,buy,buy. I saw that renting was HALF the cost of buying and rented until 2011. I pulled the trigger at the bottom once I realized buying was CHEAPER than renting.

Stocks are obviously the same thing - buying tech stocks in 99-00 was terrible.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on September 04, 2018, 12:01:23 PM
I disagree with the sentiment of do what suits your personal situation when buying your primary home if that means the investment consideration part goes out of the window. For a lot of people, their primary home is a hybrid of investment and personal need. Especially first-time home buyers buying in current high Irvine home prices. A lot of these 1st time home buyers are buying close to their max ability to afford.
I strongly disagree with your argument that time in the market beats timing the market.
I am in my late 30s and this is very evident among friends and colleagues in my age group. My best friend was (and still is) one the most successful ones among my age group. He finished school a year early and he already had down payment saved up by his mid-20s. He bought before the crash and compounded his mistake by stretching financially and bought the biggest he could afford. It wasn’t that he was stupid. It was common back then and majority of people back then believed (like a lot of people today) that housing can only go up up and up . Even if the short term looked overheated, the long term 10,20,30 year outlook sold him. I remember standing in his mansion at his house warming party thinking #@$%  I am 10 years behind.
I was not as successful as him. Even took an extra year to get my professional license and did not have down payment saved up until I was almost 30. By then the housing market had turned. So I did the unthinkable thing in your eyes. I paid rent and waited for the market to correct itself. I put my saved down payment and whatever income I had left after paying rent into the equity market. Not because I was clairvoyant or smarter than the average person. The equity market was the only thing working in late 2009 early 2010. I did eventually buy my primary home in 2016, after home prices have gone way up. But, by staying nimble financially  I was able to take advantage of the biggest equity rally in years. I think it’s safe to say as of today, I am years ahead of him to reaching financial freedom. More importantly, I lived the past 8-10 years much more stress free compared to him.
Timing the market is important. Doing a full analysis of opportunity cost & why you are getting into RE today is important. Having an exit strategy, like USC mentioned is important. Focusing on 10,20,30 years for many novice homebuyers will overly simplify a should be complex decision.

Great points. Of course 2005/2006 were extreme once in a life time situations. I was in a similar situation as your friend as I had enough money saved up for a downpayment by my mid-20s and everyone advised to buy,buy,buy. I saw that renting was HALF the cost of buying and rented until 2011. I pulled the trigger at the bottom once I realized buying was CHEAPER than renting.

Stocks are obviously the same thing - buying tech stocks in 99-00 was terrible.

Agree here that the Great Recession is a once in a life time event. At least in my life time anyways. So now those that haven't  bought, the only sensible thing to to right now is rent and calculate your Rent vs. owned. Or buy in a low cost area. By the way low cost mean more crimes and schools is not that great. True, crimes are everywhere, but high homes price means much lesser crimes.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: HMart on September 04, 2018, 03:35:07 PM
Timing the market is important.

The message I read from this post is that it's better to be lucky than good.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on September 04, 2018, 04:08:39 PM
The message I read from this post is that it's better to be lucky than good.
I was definitely lucky not good. I wanted a big house like my buddy had and even begged my parents for help on the down payment. This is quite common among FCB families that parents help with the down payment on the kid’s 1st house. I was lucky that they chose to ignore my request and paid off my sizable student loan instead. I was not entirely happy with their decision back then, but I am extremely grateful now.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 04, 2018, 05:26:50 PM
Real estate is a long term investment and we should absolutely focus on 10, 20, 30 years from now. If you are not an investor and simply looking for your primary residence, of course, do what best suits your personal situation. Maybe the best option is to rent, especially if you are not planning to stay there for > 5 years. It takes a lot time and $ to sell real estate (compared to other investments like stocks and ETFs). For an average person, time in the market usually beats timing the market. Also, what do you think the people timing the market are doing while waiting for the market to "correct itself"? Paying rent? So as a property owner, whether the market goes up or down, they win by collecting rent (when people stand on the sidelines) or enjoying value appreciation (when people buy) or both (when the economy is growing).
I agree with some of your points, but I disagree that RE should be a long 10,20,30 year investment. This long buy and hold mindset leads to missed opportunities and mistakes.
I disagree with the sentiment of do what suits your personal situation when buying your primary home if that means the investment consideration part goes out of the window. For a lot of people, their primary home is a hybrid of investment and personal need. Especially first-time home buyers buying in current high Irvine home prices. A lot of these 1st time home buyers are buying close to their max ability to afford.
I strongly disagree with your argument that time in the market beats timing the market.
I am in my late 30s and this is very evident among friends and colleagues in my age group. My best friend was (and still is) one the most successful ones among my age group. He finished school a year early and he already had down payment saved up by his mid-20s. He bought before the crash and compounded his mistake by stretching financially and bought the biggest he could afford. It wasn’t that he was stupid. It was common back then and majority of people back then believed (like a lot of people today) that housing can only go up up and up . Even if the short term looked overheated, the long term 10,20,30 year outlook sold him. I remember standing in his mansion at his house warming party thinking #@$%  I am 10 years behind.
I was not as successful as him. Even took an extra year to get my professional license and did not have down payment saved up until I was almost 30. By then the housing market had turned. So I did the unthinkable thing in your eyes. I paid rent and waited for the market to correct itself. I put my saved down payment and whatever income I had left after paying rent into the equity market. Not because I was clairvoyant or smarter than the average person. The equity market was the only thing working in late 2009 early 2010. I did eventually buy my primary home in 2016, after home prices have gone way up. But, by staying nimble financially  I was able to take advantage of the biggest equity rally in years. I think it’s safe to say as of today, I am years ahead of him to reaching financial freedom. More importantly, I lived the past 8-10 years much more stress free compared to him.
Timing the market is important. Doing a full analysis of opportunity cost & why you are getting into RE today is important. Having an exit strategy, like USC mentioned is important. Focusing on 10,20,30 years for many novice homebuyers will overly simplify a should be complex decision.


I'm with Ken on this one.  For me, I'm all about the exit (3-5 years).  Not to mention, there are a lot more job hopping these days.  We see a lot of job relocation sales on TI alone.  Gone are the days where someone stays in their job (and their house) for 10+ years.  I also think a lot of Irvine isn't from Irvine (as evident by the population growth numbers, I suppose) so a lot of people don't have strong ties to this area which makes picking up and relocating for life quality/job/family/schools that much more prevalent.

Bingo...in today's world people change jobs every few years so the average home selling every 4-7 years is very reasonable.  Plus a lot of buyers will purchase their first home (attached or detached condo) and then want to move up to a true SRF within 3-5 years so that's why it's very important to consider the exit strategy where that first home will be as appealing as possible to both future buyers and/or renters.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on September 05, 2018, 10:31:58 AM
Move up buyers should be hoping for propery prices to crash then.   I'd be in a much better shape if my condo lost value and bigger houses proportionally lost the same % value...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Liar Loan on September 05, 2018, 12:02:31 PM
Move up buyers should be hoping for propery prices to crash then.   I'd be in a much better shape if my condo lost value and bigger houses proportionally lost the same % value...

Condos tend to lose more value on a percentage basis than move up homes though.  The reason is that condo owners have less resources to tough it out during a recession compared to those that own more expensive properties.  If you are going to own during a crash, you would be better off owning the higher end home that is going to have a smaller drop in value.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on September 05, 2018, 12:25:53 PM
Move up buyers should be hoping for propery prices to crash then.   I'd be in a much better shape if my condo lost value and bigger houses proportionally lost the same % value...

Condos tend to lose more value on a percentage basis than move up homes though.  The reason is that condo owners have less resources to tough it out during a recession compared to those that own more expensive properties.  If you are going to own during a crash, you would be better off owning the higher end home that is going to have a smaller drop in value.

Want to make a bet that in OC, this won't be the case, and the inverse will be true?  There are a lot more people in Orange County that can afford a condo than can afford move up homes.  Check the time on the market for things over 1 million vs. condos in 700k and less.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Liar Loan on September 05, 2018, 01:00:22 PM
Move up buyers should be hoping for propery prices to crash then.   I'd be in a much better shape if my condo lost value and bigger houses proportionally lost the same % value...

Condos tend to lose more value on a percentage basis than move up homes though.  The reason is that condo owners have less resources to tough it out during a recession compared to those that own more expensive properties.  If you are going to own during a crash, you would be better off owning the higher end home that is going to have a smaller drop in value.

Want to make a bet that in OC, this won't be the case, and the inverse will be true?  There are a lot more people in Orange County that can afford a condo than can afford move up homes.  Check the time on the market for things over 1 million vs. condos in 700k and less.

It's not about Days on Market, but about the financial status of those that own in each segment.  Condo owners have less earnings and less savings than people that own more expensive move up homes, on average.  When a recession hits, those with the least means lose their houses the quickest and that segment gets hit with the most distressed sales.  It's a big reason why mortgage underwriting treats condos as riskier than SFR's.

Even in big bad Irvine, condos had much higher loss rates than SFR's during the Great Recession.  Just ask IHO.  He'll tell ya'.  :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 05, 2018, 08:42:17 PM
Move up buyers should be hoping for propery prices to crash then.   I'd be in a much better shape if my condo lost value and bigger houses proportionally lost the same % value...

Condos tend to lose more value on a percentage basis than move up homes though.  The reason is that condo owners have less resources to tough it out during a recession compared to those that own more expensive properties.  If you are going to own during a crash, you would be better off owning the higher end home that is going to have a smaller drop in value.

Want to make a bet that in OC, this won't be the case, and the inverse will be true?  There are a lot more people in Orange County that can afford a condo than can afford move up homes.  Check the time on the market for things over 1 million vs. condos in 700k and less.

It's not about Days on Market, but about the financial status of those that own in each segment.  Condo owners have less earnings and less savings than people that own more expensive move up homes, on average.  When a recession hits, those with the least means lose their houses the quickest and that segment gets hit with the most distressed sales.  It's a big reason why mortgage underwriting treats condos as riskier than SFR's.

Even in big bad Irvine, condos had much higher loss rates than SFR's during the Great Recession.  Just ask IHO.  He'll tell ya'.  :)

This is true, attached condos in Irvine dropped by about 30% from the peak prices in 2006/2007 while detached homes only dropped about 20%.  Detached homes (condos as well) will always appreciate more and retain their value better than attached condos with the reason you mentioned (the avg attached condo owner isn't as well healed financially as the detached home owner). 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on September 07, 2018, 09:04:56 AM
Just saw this come up on redfin feed.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/89-Nassau-92620/home/40101603

Props to Martin for getting sellers to come down so much from list price on this house.
Although the original list price was ridiculously high, it takes some skills to talk down prices this much for a house that was on the market for only a month.

I would love to hear the details on how the price was driven down 140K from list.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on September 07, 2018, 09:20:51 AM
It’s market forces
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on September 07, 2018, 09:38:43 AM
This is a primary example of using bad news to extrapolate values for buyers. A win for both buyers and seller in my opinion.  Close to half a million dollars, that's right, increased in 6 years. All in a mean while living in a good neighborhood and good school. Of course, I did not account for all the costs involve with selling and owning, but those numbers are the typical numbers that I would expect when you buy for the long run in desirable neighborhood.

Good job UscCPA. He knows what he is doing.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on September 07, 2018, 09:57:49 AM
Let the bargains begin

This is a primary example of using bad news to extrapolate values for buyers. A win for both buyers and seller in my opinion.  Close to half a million dollars, that's right, increased in 6 years. All in a mean while living in a good neighborhood and good school. Of course, I did not account for all the costs involve with selling and owning, but those numbers are the typical numbers that I would expect when you buy for the long run in desirable neighborhood.

Good job UscCPA. He knows what he is doing.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 07, 2018, 09:38:11 PM
Just saw this come up on redfin feed.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/89-Nassau-92620/home/40101603

Props to Martin for getting sellers to come down so much from list price on this house.
Although the original list price was ridiculously high, it takes some skills to talk down prices this much for a house that was on the market for only a month.

I would love to hear the details on how the price was driven down 140K from list.

The home was sitting on the market for a bit of time and it was grossly overpriced, not even sure how they came up with that high price.  We took a close look at closed comps and decided to start with an offer at $1.4m emailing the listing agent closed comps to support our offer amount since the home was a complete blank slate (my client actually liked that because they weren't paying for other people's upgrades).  I think the listing agent probably had a heart-to-heart discussion with the seller that if they wanted to sell it that they'd have to come down a good bit.  I'm sure she forwarded my email with my analysis of why our original offer of $1.4m was reasonable which probably helped.  The owner is going to renovate the home so it'll look 10x better when they are done with it and they'll get every penny back for all of the updated (wood flooring, paint, counters, bathrooms, etc).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on September 08, 2018, 09:46:06 AM
Just saw this come up on redfin feed.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/89-Nassau-92620/home/40101603

Props to Martin for getting sellers to come down so much from list price on this house.
Although the original list price was ridiculously high, it takes some skills to talk down prices this much for a house that was on the market for only a month.

I would love to hear the details on how the price was driven down 140K from list.

The home was sitting on the market for a bit of time and it was grossly overpriced, not even sure how they came up with that high price.  We took a close look at closed comps and decided to start with an offer at $1.4m emailing the listing agent closed comps to support our offer amount since the home was a complete blank slate (my client actually liked that because they weren't paying for other people's upgrades).  I think the listing agent probably had a heart-to-heart discussion with the seller that if they wanted to sell it that they'd have to come down a good bit.  I'm sure she forwarded my email with my analysis of why our original offer of $1.4m was reasonable which probably helped.  The owner is going to renovate the home so it'll look 10x better when they are done with it and they'll get every penny back for all of the updated (wood flooring, paint, counters, bathrooms, etc).

All the sold comps Ive seen in Stonegate were much higher than this sold price.  What comps did you use to negotiate this?  Props to your negotiating skills
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 08, 2018, 09:57:15 AM
Just saw this come up on redfin feed.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/89-Nassau-92620/home/40101603

Props to Martin for getting sellers to come down so much from list price on this house.
Although the original list price was ridiculously high, it takes some skills to talk down prices this much for a house that was on the market for only a month.

I would love to hear the details on how the price was driven down 140K from list.

The home was sitting on the market for a bit of time and it was grossly overpriced, not even sure how they came up with that high price.  We took a close look at closed comps and decided to start with an offer at $1.4m emailing the listing agent closed comps to support our offer amount since the home was a complete blank slate (my client actually liked that because they weren't paying for other people's upgrades).  I think the listing agent probably had a heart-to-heart discussion with the seller that if they wanted to sell it that they'd have to come down a good bit.  I'm sure she forwarded my email with my analysis of why our original offer of $1.4m was reasonable which probably helped.  The owner is going to renovate the home so it'll look 10x better when they are done with it and they'll get every penny back for all of the updated (wood flooring, paint, counters, bathrooms, etc).

All the sold comps Ive seen in Stonegate were much higher than this sold price.  What comps did you use to negotiate this?  Props to your negotiating skills

I primarily used the model match comp at 78 Medford to bring the price down....

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/78-Medford-92620/home/40101608
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on September 08, 2018, 10:12:12 AM
Just saw this come up on redfin feed.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/89-Nassau-92620/home/40101603

Props to Martin for getting sellers to come down so much from list price on this house.
Although the original list price was ridiculously high, it takes some skills to talk down prices this much for a house that was on the market for only a month.

I would love to hear the details on how the price was driven down 140K from list.

The home was sitting on the market for a bit of time and it was grossly overpriced, not even sure how they came up with that high price.  We took a close look at closed comps and decided to start with an offer at $1.4m emailing the listing agent closed comps to support our offer amount since the home was a complete blank slate (my client actually liked that because they weren't paying for other people's upgrades).  I think the listing agent probably had a heart-to-heart discussion with the seller that if they wanted to sell it that they'd have to come down a good bit.  I'm sure she forwarded my email with my analysis of why our original offer of $1.4m was reasonable which probably helped.  The owner is going to renovate the home so it'll look 10x better when they are done with it and they'll get every penny back for all of the updated (wood flooring, paint, counters, bathrooms, etc).

All the sold comps Ive seen in Stonegate were much higher than this sold price.  What comps did you use to negotiate this?  Props to your negotiating skills

This is just the beginning. Kens family member negotiated $50k off a new home, Toll brothers having a national sales event, and a whopping $140k off a a resell in this thread.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: marmott on September 08, 2018, 10:38:59 AM
Toll already had a National Sales Event in July, not uncommon.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on September 08, 2018, 10:43:56 AM
Toll already had a National Sales Event in July, not uncommon.

But I believe the flier says this is the biggest sale of the year. Plus if you don’t see a Toll Brother you like, why not tell another builder if they can also provide discounts.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: marmott on September 08, 2018, 10:53:57 AM
Toll has increased their incentives since July but not by much at least for the house we are considering (Not in OC).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kings on September 08, 2018, 12:37:14 PM
Just saw this come up on redfin feed.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/89-Nassau-92620/home/40101603

Props to Martin for getting sellers to come down so much from list price on this house.
Although the original list price was ridiculously high, it takes some skills to talk down prices this much for a house that was on the market for only a month.

I would love to hear the details on how the price was driven down 140K from list.

The home was sitting on the market for a bit of time and it was grossly overpriced, not even sure how they came up with that high price.  We took a close look at closed comps and decided to start with an offer at $1.4m emailing the listing agent closed comps to support our offer amount since the home was a complete blank slate (my client actually liked that because they weren't paying for other people's upgrades).  I think the listing agent probably had a heart-to-heart discussion with the seller that if they wanted to sell it that they'd have to come down a good bit.  I'm sure she forwarded my email with my analysis of why our original offer of $1.4m was reasonable which probably helped.  The owner is going to renovate the home so it'll look 10x better when they are done with it and they'll get every penny back for all of the updated (wood flooring, paint, counters, bathrooms, etc).

All the sold comps Ive seen in Stonegate were much higher than this sold price.  What comps did you use to negotiate this?  Props to your negotiating skills

I primarily used the model match comp at 78 Medford to bring the price down....

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/78-Medford-92620/home/40101608

that model is infinitely nicer than the home you client purchased.  i bet the seller's agent's sphincter tightened up real good when you sent them that comp.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 08, 2018, 01:25:13 PM
Just saw this come up on redfin feed.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/89-Nassau-92620/home/40101603

Props to Martin for getting sellers to come down so much from list price on this house.
Although the original list price was ridiculously high, it takes some skills to talk down prices this much for a house that was on the market for only a month.

I would love to hear the details on how the price was driven down 140K from list.

The home was sitting on the market for a bit of time and it was grossly overpriced, not even sure how they came up with that high price.  We took a close look at closed comps and decided to start with an offer at $1.4m emailing the listing agent closed comps to support our offer amount since the home was a complete blank slate (my client actually liked that because they weren't paying for other people's upgrades).  I think the listing agent probably had a heart-to-heart discussion with the seller that if they wanted to sell it that they'd have to come down a good bit.  I'm sure she forwarded my email with my analysis of why our original offer of $1.4m was reasonable which probably helped.  The owner is going to renovate the home so it'll look 10x better when they are done with it and they'll get every penny back for all of the updated (wood flooring, paint, counters, bathrooms, etc).

All the sold comps Ive seen in Stonegate were much higher than this sold price.  What comps did you use to negotiate this?  Props to your negotiating skills

This is just the beginning. Kens family member negotiated $50k off a new home, Toll brothers having a national sales event, and a whopping $140k off a a resell in this thread.


The thing is not all listing prices are created equal. The listing price on 89 Nassau was insane so it closing $140k below the listing price doesn’t really give any good insight to what’s going on in the market other than buyers won’t pay stupid asking prices. I’d venture to say if they had priced it around $1.45m it would have sold quicker. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: i1 on September 08, 2018, 02:16:59 PM
USC, a while back you had commented on a bit of softening in the rental market partly from a lot of supply from people who had been hanging on to their starter homes and also investors renting out brand new homes.

Any changes you’ve noticed in the rental market over the last 6 months or so? Thx.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on September 30, 2018, 05:37:10 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Goriot on September 30, 2018, 08:33:19 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

I believe this week is Chinese National Holiday Day week.   Whole week for Chinese to fly over and shop for homes=) Golden week for new home selling.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Ready2Downsize on September 30, 2018, 10:04:30 PM
I don't really like Laguna Niguel (it's too far from freeways) and certainly this isn't an Irvine home, but did this house not sell for two years because of the décor?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Niguel/24071-Pinehurst-Ln-92677/home/4942091

Google maps shows this as an older neighborhood but nice homes (I see most driveways were redone and these homes are over 25 years old.

Seems like in a good housing market this could be a decent flip for the price they paid.

OR for someone who thinks living on a farm is a good idea.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 01, 2018, 07:23:57 AM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

I believe this week is Chinese National Holiday Day week.   Whole week for Chinese to fly over and shop for homes=) Golden week for new home selling.

Ah ok, so why can’t American workers get those week long vacation too? Money made need to spend, not good when you too busy to spend it.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 01, 2018, 11:12:20 AM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water. 

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on October 01, 2018, 11:21:21 AM
That’s funny. It’s all about the freebies.  ;)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 01, 2018, 12:59:44 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water.

Were you the only dude in a group of several women and talking like he ready to buy up a couples of those homes?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Cares on October 01, 2018, 01:34:30 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

I believe this week is Chinese National Holiday Day week.   Whole week for Chinese to fly over and shop for homes=) Golden week for new home selling.

If they can get the money out...I know of people that have "all the money in the world" but can't get any money out of China to buy real estate here. They have to find alternative means to "smuggle" money in.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 01, 2018, 01:55:01 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

I believe this week is Chinese National Holiday Day week.   Whole week for Chinese to fly over and shop for homes=) Golden week for new home selling.

If they can get the money out...I know of people that have "all the money in the world" but can't get any money out of China to buy real estate here. They have to find alternative means to "smuggle" money in.

Where there's a will, there is a way.  ;)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 01, 2018, 01:57:04 PM
USC, a while back you had commented on a bit of softening in the rental market partly from a lot of supply from people who had been hanging on to their starter homes and also investors renting out brand new homes.

Any changes you’ve noticed in the rental market over the last 6 months or so? Thx.

The rental market looks like it has stabilized with the number of active rental listings remaining in a constant range.  Just like with resale homes, the nicer rental properties that are priced right rent very quickly.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 01, 2018, 02:25:05 PM
Excuse the delay in posting up the August data but I've been swamped the past few weeks.  Aug 2018 sales were down 5.6% from Aug 2017 but rebounded 8.3% from July 2018.  From a trailing 12-month Aug 2018 perspective Irvine sales are down 2.3% or 65 transactions.  Inventory as of 8/31/18 increased slightly at 1.1% from 7/31/17 but increased 20.8% from the inventory level as of 8/31/17.  Based upon this data, we still remain just under 3 months of inventory using Aug 2018 sales and 2.87 months of inventory (up from 2.66 months of inventory through July 2018) using the past 3 months which remains a weak seller’s market.  Inventory levels should have peaked around Labor Day but inventory levels are up slightly today versus 8/31/18.  So inventory levels are flat to rising when they should be falling slightly.

What does this all mean?  The market has continued to slow from the end of July 2018 despite the uptick in Aug 2018 (mainly due to increasing inventory along with weaker sales in Sept 2018).  I'm seeing a lot of new home inventory hit the market, whether it's Eastwood, Orchard Hills, Portola Springs, and/or Cadence Park/Altair.  Homes that are priced above recent closed comps are sitting as are properties that aren't turnkey or have unicorn features (larger lot and/or view lot).  There are still plenty of buyers out there but they are being more patient as there are more homes to pick from along with seeing price drops.  The $1m+ is continuing to slow down more than the sub $1m market as inventory levels in that segment increase at a faster rate.  From the new home builder front, just about every builder has now increased their broker co-ops with CalPac being the latest one (they sell mostly sub $1m homes).  There are still a lot of "optimistic" sellers out there so it'll be interesting to see if they pull their homes off the market or decide to cut prices to actually sell their homes.

On the 30-year fixed interest rate loan front, rates have increased in mid Sept to about 4.625-4.75% compared to just under 4.50% at the end of Aug 2018.  Rates have crept up as the stock market continues to go up along with stronger economic data.  Rates on 7/1 ARM loans are up to around 3.75%  today from basically being around 3.50% in Aug.  I still think the near term cap on 30-year fixed rates will be 5% but I guess we shall see.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 01, 2018, 02:46:18 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water.

Were you the only dude in a group of several women and talking like he ready to buy up a couples of those homes?

Who said any of us where there ready to buy.  I was just there for free cold water.  It was a hot day.  Im pretty sure the others were just thirsty also.   :o
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 01, 2018, 03:03:55 PM
Excuse the delay in posting up the August data but I've been swamped the past few weeks.  Aug 2018 sales were down 5.6% from Aug 2017 but rebounded 8.3% from July 2018.  From a trailing 12-month Aug 2018 perspective Irvine sales are down 2.3% or 65 transactions.  Inventory as of 8/31/18 increased slightly at 1.1% from 7/31/17 but increased 20.8% from the inventory level as of 8/31/17.  Based upon this data, we still remain just under 3 months of inventory using Aug 2018 sales and 2.87 months of inventory (up from 2.66 months of inventory through July 2018) using the past 3 months which remains a weak seller’s market.  Inventory levels should have peaked around Labor Day but inventory levels are up slightly today versus 8/31/18.  So inventory levels are flat to rising when they should be falling slightly.

What does this all mean?  The market has continued to slow from the end of July 2018 despite the uptick in Aug 2018 (mainly due to increasing inventory along with weaker sales in Sept 2018).  I'm seeing a lot of new home inventory hit the market, whether it's Eastwood, Orchard Hills, Portola Springs, and/or Cadence Park/Altair.  Homes that are priced above recent closed comps are sitting as are properties that aren't turnkey or have unicorn features (larger lot and/or view lot).  There are still plenty of buyers out there but they are being more patient as there are more homes to pick from along with seeing price drops.  The $1m+ is continuing to slow down more than the sub $1m market as inventory levels in that segment increase at a faster rate.  From the new home builder front, just about every builder has now increased their broker co-ops with CalPac being the latest one (they sell mostly sub $1m homes).  There are still a lot of "optimistic" sellers out there so it'll be interesting to see if they pull their homes off the market or decide to cut prices to actually sell their homes.

On the 30-year fixed interest rate loan front, rates have increased in mid Sept to about 4.625-4.75% compared to just under 4.50% at the end of Aug 2018.  Rates have crept up as the stock market continues to go up along with stronger economic data.  Rates on 7/1 ARM loans are up to around 3.75%  today from basically being around 3.50% in Aug.  I still think the near term cap on 30-year fixed rates will be 5% but I guess we shall see.

Now that Sept is officially over, do you have number from Sept or is it too early to have that data available?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 01, 2018, 03:10:12 PM
Excuse the delay in posting up the August data but I've been swamped the past few weeks.  Aug 2018 sales were down 5.6% from Aug 2017 but rebounded 8.3% from July 2018.  From a trailing 12-month Aug 2018 perspective Irvine sales are down 2.3% or 65 transactions.  Inventory as of 8/31/18 increased slightly at 1.1% from 7/31/17 but increased 20.8% from the inventory level as of 8/31/17.  Based upon this data, we still remain just under 3 months of inventory using Aug 2018 sales and 2.87 months of inventory (up from 2.66 months of inventory through July 2018) using the past 3 months which remains a weak seller’s market.  Inventory levels should have peaked around Labor Day but inventory levels are up slightly today versus 8/31/18.  So inventory levels are flat to rising when they should be falling slightly.

What does this all mean?  The market has continued to slow from the end of July 2018 despite the uptick in Aug 2018 (mainly due to increasing inventory along with weaker sales in Sept 2018).  I'm seeing a lot of new home inventory hit the market, whether it's Eastwood, Orchard Hills, Portola Springs, and/or Cadence Park/Altair.  Homes that are priced above recent closed comps are sitting as are properties that aren't turnkey or have unicorn features (larger lot and/or view lot).  There are still plenty of buyers out there but they are being more patient as there are more homes to pick from along with seeing price drops.  The $1m+ is continuing to slow down more than the sub $1m market as inventory levels in that segment increase at a faster rate.  From the new home builder front, just about every builder has now increased their broker co-ops with CalPac being the latest one (they sell mostly sub $1m homes).  There are still a lot of "optimistic" sellers out there so it'll be interesting to see if they pull their homes off the market or decide to cut prices to actually sell their homes.

On the 30-year fixed interest rate loan front, rates have increased in mid Sept to about 4.625-4.75% compared to just under 4.50% at the end of Aug 2018.  Rates have crept up as the stock market continues to go up along with stronger economic data.  Rates on 7/1 ARM loans are up to around 3.75%  today from basically being around 3.50% in Aug.  I still think the near term cap on 30-year fixed rates will be 5% but I guess we shall see.

Now that Sept is officially over, do you have number from Sept or is it too early to have that data available?


I'm letting the dust settle and will post up the Sept numbers by the end of the this week.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 01, 2018, 03:58:55 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water.

Were you the only dude in a group of several women and talking like he ready to buy up a couples of those homes?

Who said any of us where there ready to buy.  I was just there for free cold water.  It was a hot day.  Im pretty sure the others were just thirsty also.   :o

Nah, ballers like the ones I see, rolling up with their own drink bro. Water is cheap so builders gladly giving it away to free loaders.  :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 01, 2018, 04:04:07 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water.

Were you the only dude in a group of several women and talking like he ready to buy up a couples of those homes?

Who said any of us where there ready to buy.  I was just there for free cold water.  It was a hot day.  Im pretty sure the others were just thirsty also.   :o

Nah, ballers like the ones I see, rolling up with their own drink bro. Water is cheap so builders gladly giving it away to free loaders.  :)

You said they were Chinese right?  Whether they are ballers or not, they are getting their free $hit.  :o
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 01, 2018, 04:17:59 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water.

Were you the only dude in a group of several women and talking like he ready to buy up a couples of those homes?

Who said any of us where there ready to buy.  I was just there for free cold water.  It was a hot day.  Im pretty sure the others were just thirsty also.   :o

Nah, ballers like the ones I see, rolling up with their own drink bro. Water is cheap so builders gladly giving it away to free loaders.  :)

You said they were Chinese right?  Whether they are ballers or not, they are getting their free $hit.  :o

There were several families. Some are young couples middle eastern, 1 couple dude is white and wife/girl friend Asian. 2 Caucasians couples and a bunch of Asian. I think they are FCB. Surprisingly, none of those people ever reach for the refrigerators or have waters in their hands. So it safe to say I did not see you. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on October 01, 2018, 04:48:00 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water.

Were you the only dude in a group of several women and talking like he ready to buy up a couples of those homes?

Who said any of us where there ready to buy.  I was just there for free cold water.  It was a hot day.  Im pretty sure the others were just thirsty also.   :o

Nah, ballers like the ones I see, rolling up with their own drink bro. Water is cheap so builders gladly giving it away to free loaders.  :)

You said they were Chinese right?  Whether they are ballers or not, they are getting their free $hit.  :o

There were several families. Some are young couples middle eastern, 1 couple dude is white and wife/girl friend Asian. 2 Caucasians couples and a bunch of Asian. I think they are FCB. Surprisingly, none of those people ever reach for the refrigerators or have waters in their hands. So it safe to say I did not see you.

Its' safe to say I did not see Trump. Oops :o Wrong thread.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 01, 2018, 05:14:30 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water.

Were you the only dude in a group of several women and talking like he ready to buy up a couples of those homes?

Who said any of us where there ready to buy.  I was just there for free cold water.  It was a hot day.  Im pretty sure the others were just thirsty also.   :o

Nah, ballers like the ones I see, rolling up with their own drink bro. Water is cheap so builders gladly giving it away to free loaders.  :)

You said they were Chinese right?  Whether they are ballers or not, they are getting their free $hit.  :o

There were several families. Some are young couples middle eastern, 1 couple dude is white and wife/girl friend Asian. 2 Caucasians couples and a bunch of Asian. I think they are FCB. Surprisingly, none of those people ever reach for the refrigerators or have waters in their hands. So it safe to say I did not see you.

Damn are you like the water monitor or something?  How the hell you remember if all those people reached for the refrigerator or had water in their hands? 

You still might have seen me there, I probably drank the water before you got there.   8)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 01, 2018, 05:18:29 PM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water.

Were you the only dude in a group of several women and talking like he ready to buy up a couples of those homes?

Who said any of us where there ready to buy.  I was just there for free cold water.  It was a hot day.  Im pretty sure the others were just thirsty also.   :o

Nah, ballers like the ones I see, rolling up with their own drink bro. Water is cheap so builders gladly giving it away to free loaders.  :)

You said they were Chinese right?  Whether they are ballers or not, they are getting their free $hit.  :o

There were several families. Some are young couples middle eastern, 1 couple dude is white and wife/girl friend Asian. 2 Caucasians couples and a bunch of Asian. I think they are FCB. Surprisingly, none of those people ever reach for the refrigerators or have waters in their hands. So it safe to say I did not see you.

Damn are you like the water monitor or something?  How the hell you remember if all those people reached for the refrigerator or had water in their hands? 

You still might have seen me there, I probably drank the water before you got there.   8)

So what do you think, is it worth what it asking for?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on October 04, 2018, 10:38:33 AM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Since you mentioned Chinese buyers, it’s probably a good time to mention that this is the first time since 2008 that Chinese investors sold more US real estate than bought.
Chinese investors sold 1.29 billion US RE in the 2nd quarter and only bought 126 million US RE.

I know many on this forum has been saying that they do not see Chinese selling their Irvine homes.
Even when many of these homes are unoccupied and bought for rainy day purposes.
But this extreme trend reversal should sound an alarm if you are looking to buy.

Meanwhile, Shanghai index continues to make lower lows, reaching the lowest point (down 49%) since 2015 just a few days ago.

https://www.worldjournal.com/5758909/article-%E7%BE%8E%E6%88%BF%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%85%E6%8C%BA-%E4%B8%AD%E8%B3%87%E6%92%A4%E9%9B%A3%E6%92%BC%E5%8B%95/
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on October 04, 2018, 10:49:22 AM
USC, a while back you had commented on a bit of softening in the rental market partly from a lot of supply from people who had been hanging on to their starter homes and also investors renting out brand new homes.

Any changes you’ve noticed in the rental market over the last 6 months or so? Thx.

I know many on this forum believes Irvine rent will keep on rising but there is a pause right now from what I'm seeing.

According to this report, Irvine rental market is flat year over year. With slight decline in the last 6 months.

http://usahousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Irvine-October-2018-Market-Report.pdf


Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 04, 2018, 12:19:09 PM
USC, a while back you had commented on a bit of softening in the rental market partly from a lot of supply from people who had been hanging on to their starter homes and also investors renting out brand new homes.

Any changes you’ve noticed in the rental market over the last 6 months or so? Thx.

I know many on this forum believes Irvine rent will keep on rising but there is a pause right now from what I'm seeing.

According to this report, Irvine rental market is flat year over year. With slight decline in the last 6 months.

http://usahousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Irvine-October-2018-Market-Report.pdf

It’s depends if the rental rate was low and if it hasn’t been raised in the past few years, then it would be good time to slowly increase the rental rate. Bring it closer to rental comps but shave a hundred or two off will help retain or attract renters fairly quickly. I am speaking from a small rentals operator. Now compare that with Irvine Company Apartment they are tight fisted. Sure they will get you in and make it easy on you on your initial lease sign up. Renewal, will increase from there each and every time vs. private operator. There, always that personal relationship and not business like IAC and sock it to you. Beside if you have a family of 4 most type A renters prefer single family homes than apartment.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 04, 2018, 03:58:41 PM
USC, a while back you had commented on a bit of softening in the rental market partly from a lot of supply from people who had been hanging on to their starter homes and also investors renting out brand new homes.

Any changes you’ve noticed in the rental market over the last 6 months or so? Thx.

I know many on this forum believes Irvine rent will keep on rising but there is a pause right now from what I'm seeing.

According to this report, Irvine rental market is flat year over year. With slight decline in the last 6 months.

http://usahousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Irvine-October-2018-Market-Report.pdf




The reason rents are down is because there is so much construction of apartment units, especially in Irvine.  The more units that come to market the more pricing pressure that will ensue.  Keep in mind that basically all of these apartment units are studios to 2-bedrooms.  So if you are a private landlord and have a 3-4 bedroom property you won't be competing against these additional apartment units coming to market.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 05, 2018, 06:18:42 AM
Stopped by Cadence Park today particularly Duet, and I can tell you that there is a lot of Chinese buyers tour the model and Cadence Park neighborhood today. I was there late in the afternoon and while I sat there within half an hour several families stopped into the models A few young couples with parents also stopped in. So as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem like any slow down happening at new development.

On the other hand of sellers price reductions, 2 of them that I know are in contract to buy a bigger home and selling and cutting prices to get going with their new build. The new builder in turn gave them some nice closing credits and upgrade.

This is rather a small sample and observation, but the ones that can buy, they're still buy. IHO message is heard loud and clear, J/K. Most of those probably don't even know TalkIrvine existence.

Maybe you saw me there.  Sometimes I stop by to pick up some cold water.

Were you the only dude in a group of several women and talking like he ready to buy up a couples of those homes?

Who said any of us where there ready to buy.  I was just there for free cold water.  It was a hot day.  Im pretty sure the others were just thirsty also.   :o

Nah, ballers like the ones I see, rolling up with their own drink bro. Water is cheap so builders gladly giving it away to free loaders.  :)

You said they were Chinese right?  Whether they are ballers or not, they are getting their free $hit.  :o

There were several families. Some are young couples middle eastern, 1 couple dude is white and wife/girl friend Asian. 2 Caucasians couples and a bunch of Asian. I think they are FCB. Surprisingly, none of those people ever reach for the refrigerators or have waters in their hands. So it safe to say I did not see you.

Damn are you like the water monitor or something?  How the hell you remember if all those people reached for the refrigerator or had water in their hands? 

You still might have seen me there, I probably drank the water before you got there.   8)

So what do you think, is it worth what it asking for?

My opinions dont matter much but since you keep asking me for my opinion, Ill tell you.  Nah I dont think its worth it.  Do you?  I see a quick move in for 1.2M so lets use that.  its 2900 Sq ft which is good.... but here are the negatives.  1.  its motorcourt.  really a 1.2M motorcourt?   2.  its three stories.  We all know 3 stories suck bad.  3.  its in the great park which means a few things.  a.  high mellos and HOA  2.  its built on a previous superfund site.  3.  its far from retail.  4.  Will always have concerns with future cemetary and homeless shelters nearby.   But honestly, just the extra taxes/HOA is enough. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 05, 2018, 06:21:12 AM
USC, a while back you had commented on a bit of softening in the rental market partly from a lot of supply from people who had been hanging on to their starter homes and also investors renting out brand new homes.

Any changes you’ve noticed in the rental market over the last 6 months or so? Thx.

I know many on this forum believes Irvine rent will keep on rising but there is a pause right now from what I'm seeing.

According to this report, Irvine rental market is flat year over year. With slight decline in the last 6 months.

http://usahousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Irvine-October-2018-Market-Report.pdf




The reason rents are down is because there is so much construction of apartment units, especially in Irvine.  The more units that come to market the more pricing pressure that will ensue.  Keep in mind that basically all of these apartment units are studios to 2-bedrooms.  So if you are a private landlord and have a 3-4 bedroom property you won't be competing against these additional apartment units coming to market.

Out of curiosity how many new apartment units came online in the last year?  Im sure there is a correlation to the # of new units to the rent decreases.  Also I would assume then the rents for 3-4 bed rentals have not dropped since these do not compete with new units coming online. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 05, 2018, 07:55:37 AM
USC, a while back you had commented on a bit of softening in the rental market partly from a lot of supply from people who had been hanging on to their starter homes and also investors renting out brand new homes.

Any changes you’ve noticed in the rental market over the last 6 months or so? Thx.

I know many on this forum believes Irvine rent will keep on rising but there is a pause right now from what I'm seeing.

According to this report, Irvine rental market is flat year over year. With slight decline in the last 6 months.

http://usahousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Irvine-October-2018-Market-Report.pdf




The reason rents are down is because there is so much construction of apartment units, especially in Irvine.  The more units that come to market the more pricing pressure that will ensue.  Keep in mind that basically all of these apartment units are studios to 2-bedrooms.  So if you are a private landlord and have a 3-4 bedroom property you won't be competing against these additional apartment units coming to market.

Out of curiosity how many new apartment units came online in the last year?  Im sure there is a correlation to the # of new units to the rent decreases.  Also I would assume then the rents for 3-4 bed rentals have not dropped since these do not compete with new units coming online. 

I don't have the commercial data to see how many apartment rental units were added in Irvine over the past year but it's easy to see there's a lot of apartment construction around Jamboree/Main St/Von Karman and around the Spectrum. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 05, 2018, 08:18:52 AM
Not just the units added by the big companies on the 405, near Spectrum and in Los Olivos... there are also tons of in-build apartments coming on line in the IBC (Von Karman/Jamboree/Alton/Main).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 05, 2018, 08:22:30 AM
I really wish they would stop building.  The congestion is getting really bad in my opinion.  I really think the 91 fwy traffic is better than the 5 and 405 in Irvine now. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on October 05, 2018, 08:27:30 AM
I really wish they would stop building.  The congestion is getting really bad in my opinion.  I really think the 91 fwy traffic is better than the 5 and 405 in Irvine now.

Tell me about it. Maybe Elon Musk needs to step in to help out with the traffic.

Sorry folks private industry brings ideas and think out of the box.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 05, 2018, 08:44:24 AM
Well if they are bringing more apartment units to Irvine, that will definitely cause downward pressure on rents.  And if there are downward pressures on rents, then it will eventually make some impact on housing prices as it becomes more and more cheaper to rent than buy.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 05, 2018, 12:42:17 PM
Well if they are bringing more apartment units to Irvine, that will definitely cause downward pressure on rents.  And if there are downward pressures on rents, then it will eventually make some impact on housing prices as it becomes more and more cheaper to rent than buy.

As USC said, it depends on the stock.

Lower 1-2 br apartment rents aren't really going to affect the price of 4br homes.

That's actually interesting... do the new home builders even build 1 or 2 br homes anymore? I know that Woodbury had a few 1br, 1br w/den, 2br products (some were even detached IIRC).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on October 05, 2018, 02:03:28 PM
Well if they are bringing more apartment units to Irvine, that will definitely cause downward pressure on rents.  And if there are downward pressures on rents, then it will eventually make some impact on housing prices as it becomes more and more cheaper to rent than buy.

As USC said, it depends on the stock.

Lower 1-2 br apartment rents aren't really going to affect the price of 4br homes.

That's actually interesting... do the new home builders even build 1 or 2 br homes anymore? I know that Woodbury had a few 1br, 1br w/den, 2br products (some were even detached IIRC).

So are rents for 3 and 4 beds climbing then? 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kings on October 05, 2018, 02:11:01 PM
Well if they are bringing more apartment units to Irvine, that will definitely cause downward pressure on rents.  And if there are downward pressures on rents, then it will eventually make some impact on housing prices as it becomes more and more cheaper to rent than buy.

As USC said, it depends on the stock.

Lower 1-2 br apartment rents aren't really going to affect the price of 4br homes.

That's actually interesting... do the new home builders even build 1 or 2 br homes anymore? I know that Woodbury had a few 1br, 1br w/den, 2br products (some were even detached IIRC).

there are a few new 1 br/2 br coming in the gp, but larger units = bigger profit margin for developers
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paperboyNC on October 05, 2018, 05:13:08 PM
Disagree about 1-2 bedrooms prices and the relationship to 3-4 bedroom rents. Once you get renters used to paying $2400/mo for a 2bedroom apt, it's not a big jump to $3500/mo for a 4bedroom home.

Sometimes single renters are comparing the cost of splitting a 2bedroom two ways versus and 4bedroom four ways versus having their own studio or 1bedroom.

IMO flatenning rents is likely to relate to flatenning prices.

I'm on the side where flat real estate prices are a good thing if the cause is that we finally built enough to balance supply and demand at current prices.

I don't want to see real estate prices escalate to a mega bubble.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on October 06, 2018, 12:20:56 PM
Agree with paperboyNC.

I get that 3-4 bedrooms are less affected than 1-2 bedrooms. But 3-4 bedrooms are still going to affected by the overall rental market.
It's quite contrary to what I am seeing personally and frankly I am not seeing any data showing 3-4 bedroom rents are bucking against the flattening trend.

Irvine also has a ton of supply of 3-4 bedroom from private landlords. A quick look on Zillow shows over 250 3+ bedroom homes for rent in Irvine. For a quick comparison, Santa Ana has 25 3+ bedroom homes for rent.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Funkie on October 08, 2018, 02:21:07 PM
TIC would not build apartment homes if it didn't think they would be rented.

TIC apartment home's vacancy rate is extremely low, especially in areas where there is employment nearby. 

As long as they are building new office buildings, I see 3+ bedroom houses will be in higher demand, since there is no TIC products in that category. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: HMart on October 08, 2018, 04:26:29 PM
I really wish they would stop building.  The congestion is getting really bad in my opinion.  I really think the 91 fwy traffic is better than the 5 and 405 in Irvine now.

We need local housing options for our new employees with all the job growth we have. It's difficult for us to hire entry level and mid-level employees with continuous rent increases. They end up having to drive in from more affordable locations which certainly doesn't help traffic either.

Unless of course you hate new jobs!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: nosuchreality on October 09, 2018, 07:53:22 AM
Thats because we keep thinking of OC as suburban.  The reality though is Orange County has twice the population density has the New York - New Jersey MSA.  While NYC is massively more dense, their MSA isn't.

Employers and employees need to adjust their expectations that we are part of an extended mega-city and many of the employers are located in the most expensive parts.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 09, 2018, 08:13:59 AM
Well if they are bringing more apartment units to Irvine, that will definitely cause downward pressure on rents.  And if there are downward pressures on rents, then it will eventually make some impact on housing prices as it becomes more and more cheaper to rent than buy.

As USC said, it depends on the stock.

Lower 1-2 br apartment rents aren't really going to affect the price of 4br homes.

That's actually interesting... do the new home builders even build 1 or 2 br homes anymore? I know that Woodbury had a few 1br, 1br w/den, 2br products (some were even detached IIRC).

So are rents for 3 and 4 beds climbing then? 

Since I'm not in the rental market, I would not know nor would I predict. But similar to what you said earlier, I would assume that higher bedroom count rentals would be less affected by more 1-2br units being built because they are not the same demographic.

Just by optics alone, I think 4br SFRs have a higher premium for rent because many people would prefer to live in a house vs apartment for privacy, space and density reasons.

What are the rents of a 2br apartment vs a 4br house? I think the 4br house can maintain a higher rent point because math favors it even for singles or college students splitting the cost.

Using paperboyNC's numbers above, $2400 for a 2br is more expensive to split than $3500 for a 4br split 4 ways. Using that same scenario, you could even charge $4000 for the 4br because it's still cheaper.

This is one of the reasons why I think 4br rentals aren't as affected. Even if 2br rentals get down to a point where the split cost is comparable, there are still benefits to living in an SFR vs an apartment complex (and yes, this is debatable as many prefer the urban apartment scene).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 09, 2018, 10:15:07 AM
Well if they are bringing more apartment units to Irvine, that will definitely cause downward pressure on rents.  And if there are downward pressures on rents, then it will eventually make some impact on housing prices as it becomes more and more cheaper to rent than buy.

As USC said, it depends on the stock.

Lower 1-2 br apartment rents aren't really going to affect the price of 4br homes.

That's actually interesting... do the new home builders even build 1 or 2 br homes anymore? I know that Woodbury had a few 1br, 1br w/den, 2br products (some were even detached IIRC).

So are rents for 3 and 4 beds climbing then? 

Since I'm not in the rental market, I would not know nor would I predict. But similar to what you said earlier, I would assume that higher bedroom count rentals would be less affected by more 1-2br units being built because they are not the same demographic.

Just by optics alone, I think 4br SFRs have a higher premium for rent because many people would prefer to live in a house vs apartment for privacy, space and density reasons.

What are the rents of a 2br apartment vs a 4br house? I think the 4br house can maintain a higher rent point because math favors it even for singles or college students splitting the cost.

Using paperboyNC's numbers above, $2400 for a 2br is more expensive to split than $3500 for a 4br split 4 ways. Using that same scenario, you could even charge $4000 for the 4br because it's still cheaper.

This is one of the reasons why I think 4br rentals aren't as affected. Even if 2br rentals get down to a point where the split cost is comparable, there are still benefits to living in an SFR vs an apartment complex (and yes, this is debatable as many prefer the urban apartment scene).

Half of the applicants for 4BR homes are from college and young professionals who looking to share the cost with roommates, the other half is from families sometimes with grandparents as well. When breaking in down and all of the bedrooms are occupied, it comes out to be better deals than renting a 1 or 2 bedroom townhouses or apartment. Rent has been increasing in the last 4 years and it doesn't show any signs of slowing down. Now that rates have skyrocketed and homes prices stagnant, the pool of renters actually increase in a foreseeable future, couple that with institutional investors on wall street pulling for inventory for sale homes off the market as indicated by SLGP

Another article to enjoy on the subject:

https://macromon.wordpress.com/2018/10/03/alea-iacta-est/

Although my favorite part was this truth bomb:

Even the housing market suffers a dearth of supply.

Private equity, now the largest single holder of single-family residential real estate, has taken a massive supply of homes off the market and converted them to rentals, partly due to the lower cost of capital caused by the manipulation of the Treasury yield curve.  Will these investors start to sell down their inventory as rates move higher, or just continue to raise rents, which could create a real political problem?

…one-fourth of the country’s single-family rental homes are now owned by institutional investors, with more than 200,000 families paying their rent to just nine giant Wall Street-backed firms. According to a report by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, the majority share of all U.S. rental units (52.2 percent) are owned by institutional investors, and the investor-owned share of single-family homes increased by nearly 40% from 2001 to 2015.5 – ACCE

As it's been said before - "May you live in interesting times." - and these certainly are some of the most interesting days I've seen.

My .02c

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on October 09, 2018, 05:30:52 PM
TIC has done a great job at boosting their apartment rents. The new TIC larger (1300 sqft+) 2 bedroom apartments are going for close to $3500 a month.

But TIC's success at boosting rent has not really carried over to private landlords. For about the same price of a new TIC 2 bedroom apartment you can rent a new or almost new million dollar home in great park neighborhoods.

Like IHO,I see renting apartment as a downgrade to renting a SFR. But TIC is proving us wrong. Maybe they are able to do this by manipulating supply and demand. Or maybe Irvine renters simply prefer the apartment living life. Either way, the rental market for 3-4 bedroom private homes in Irvine remains weak. It's simple supply and demand. We have a ton of supply of 3-4 bedroom private homes for rent and the success of TIC has not boosted demand for 3-4 bedroom private rental homes.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Cares on October 10, 2018, 02:26:38 PM
Must be Google Fiber at TIC apartments winning them over!

Let's not forget most single family rentals don't come with fridge/washer/dryer. Maybe renters don't want to deal with buying one and then figuring out what to do with it.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: heverlee on October 12, 2018, 02:37:48 PM
this is the thing I don't understand coming from another state.

Why the SFR rentals don't include these appliances? When I was trying to rent 2 months ago, 95% homes I see don't include these. In my own state, without fridge/washer/dryer, no one would rent the home.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Cares on October 12, 2018, 02:59:18 PM
this is the thing I don't understand coming from another state.

Why the SFR rentals don't include these appliances? When I was trying to rent 2 months ago, 95% homes I see don't include these. In my own state, without fridge/washer/dryer, no one would rent the home.

Just a generalization and I can be completely off base but I'm thinking Californians have a higher disposable income. The cost of these appliances are a much smaller fraction of their income so they prefer to get something they want.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 12, 2018, 03:47:50 PM
this is the thing I don't understand coming from another state.

Why the SFR rentals don't include these appliances? When I was trying to rent 2 months ago, 95% homes I see don't include these. In my own state, without fridge/washer/dryer, no one would rent the home.

Just a generalization and I can be completely off base but I'm thinking Californians have a higher disposable income. The cost of these appliances are a much smaller fraction of their income so they prefer to get something they want.

Agree here, renters have their own preferences when it comes to furnishing. They like to buy their own stuffs.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 12, 2018, 03:54:31 PM
TIC has done a great job at boosting their apartment rents. The new TIC larger (1300 sqft+) 2 bedroom apartments are going for close to $3500 a month.

But TIC's success at boosting rent has not really carried over to private landlords. For about the same price of a new TIC 2 bedroom apartment you can rent a new or almost new million dollar home in great park neighborhoods.

Like IHO,I see renting apartment as a downgrade to renting a SFR. But TIC is proving us wrong. Maybe they are able to do this by manipulating supply and demand. Or maybe Irvine renters simply prefer the apartment living life. Either way, the rental market for 3-4 bedroom private homes in Irvine remains weak. It's simple supply and demand. We have a ton of supply of 3-4 bedroom private homes for rent and the success of TIC has not boosted demand for 3-4 bedroom private rental homes.

Their secret sauce, a month free rent. They also offer painting the wall any color of your choice. They have a large maintenance crew and roll out the red carpet for you when you move in. IAC are generally nicest when it comes to rental and maintenance request. The investment they do for you will come at a small cost to gain your signing.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: superbobbay on October 13, 2018, 01:44:12 AM
They recoup their money when they gouge you on moving out fees deducted from your deposit.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 13, 2018, 05:29:30 AM
They recoup their money when they gouge you on moving out fees deducted from your deposit.

+1
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 13, 2018, 05:30:04 AM
this is the thing I don't understand coming from another state.

Why the SFR rentals don't include these appliances? When I was trying to rent 2 months ago, 95% homes I see don't include these. In my own state, without fridge/washer/dryer, no one would rent the home.

Most rentals have at least the refrigerator but not a washer/dryer. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: akkord on October 17, 2018, 10:49:14 AM
Our tenants got lucky then? We included the fridge, washer, & dryer...TBH if I was renting I'd want all those included.  I don't want one extra hassle of dealing with "what to do with the appliances" when moving out. 

this is the thing I don't understand coming from another state.

Why the SFR rentals don't include these appliances? When I was trying to rent 2 months ago, 95% homes I see don't include these. In my own state, without fridge/washer/dryer, no one would rent the home.

Most rentals have at least the refrigerator but not a washer/dryer.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: spootieho on October 22, 2018, 07:35:01 PM
Our tenants got lucky then? We included the fridge, washer, & dryer...TBH if I was renting I'd want all those included.  I don't want one extra hassle of dealing with "what to do with the appliances" when moving out. 
The trend has been towards less and less appliances, unfortunately.

They got lucky that they found a match.  Say they already had a washer/dryer/fridge, though...  Then they might not be so lucky as they will need to store them or sell them.  Tenants who buy those appliances are forced to either sell them or find another new place that doesn't have them when they move. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineband on February 03, 2019, 11:30:46 AM
are there any frontline observations before the spring rolls around? hey
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: aquabliss on February 04, 2019, 01:53:49 AM
are there any frontline observations before the spring rolls around? hey

You had me at “spring rolls”.
Gong Hei Fat Choi!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 04, 2019, 10:27:02 AM
are there any frontline observations before the spring rolls around? hey

Yes, I'll be posting an update today after I re-list my Columbus Grove condo listing.  Stay tuned...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineband on February 04, 2019, 05:11:17 PM
are there any frontline observations before the spring rolls around? hey

You had me at “spring rolls”.
Gong Hei Fat Choi!

sorry the ‘hey’ was a softer way of saying
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 04, 2019, 09:56:11 PM
Sorry for not posting up this data monthly, I’ll try to do it more timely going forward.  The attached spreadsheet has data through Jan. 2019 and I went back and included median price per SF data going back to 2008 (figured it’d filter out some of the noise compared to the average price per SF).  Anyhow, we saw a continued decline in prices (4-5% from Sept to Jan) and sales volume (11% to 31% YOY declines) from September through January but sale volume did spike a bit in October for some reason.  Inventory peaked in late September and than steadily dropped until year-end with an increase of over 100 homes on the market in January.  On average we currently have about 4 months worth of inventory which is a neutral market but the sub $1m market is a very slight seller’s market while the higher end is a buyer’s market with more than 4 months worth of inventory (not including all of the new home shadow inventory which is mostly made up of larger homes).  Many sellers continue to be very stubborn with their asking prices so the “bid-ask” spread has continued to grow which is a big part of the inventory build up.  The sellers that need to sell (death, relo, divorce, etc) end up cutting prices and become negotiable once their homes sit on the market long enough while the well healed owners refuse to reduce their asking prices materially, if at all.  The number of homes on the market will continue to grow as we get into the Spring selling season and I can see peak inventory this summer being around 1,000 homes. 

On the interest rate front, after the 30-year rates kissing 5% (and ARM rates touching 4%) rates are down back down to around 4% (and 3.25% for a 7-year ARM) with the Fed signaling that they are on pause at the end of January.  I had 6 buyers go on hold with their home searches between September and November of last year because of the high rates and the fear of falling prices.  I’ve had 4 of those buyers re-activate their home search in January and actually helped get 2 of those buyers into escrow.  When I asked them what promoted them to start the home search they said that rates coming down along with decline in prices. A few of the home builders along mentioned that they saw traffic and sales pick up since mid-January. So we’ll see if the lower rates will be a bit of a cushion for real estate in the coming months.  I think we’ll see a 3 handle on the 30-year fixed within the next month or so. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 04, 2019, 10:03:59 PM
Here's a few 10-year charts for the visual folks about there for active listings, home sales, median price per SF, and days on market...

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: lnc on February 05, 2019, 07:12:18 AM
CoreLogic just reports December national home price increase 4.7 percent from a year ago and increase .10 percent from November. 

https://www.corelogic.com/news/corelogic-reports-december-home-prices-increased-by-4.7-percent-year-over-year.aspx
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Loco_local on February 05, 2019, 07:49:19 AM
Quote
Twelve-month home-price growth rate was slowest since August 2012

After peaking in March, December marked the ninth consecutive month of decelerating annual HPI growth in the United States
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 05, 2019, 08:01:03 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on February 05, 2019, 08:36:24 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

Or is it just seasonal?  LOL  ;)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 05, 2019, 10:06:34 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

My guess is that prices will be flat to slightly down this year (that's assuming that rates stay flat and the economy doesn't go into recession).  If rates go into the 3s, that'll bring more buyers off the fence and should cushion the market a bit. There are A LOT of stubborn/delusional sellers out there, especially in Irvine. Many of these sellers are foreign owners who own the homes without a mortgage who still think that their properties are special and should be trading above closed comps from early 2018.  I also believe that we will continue to see more properties come to market as we get into Spring and we'll cross the 1,000+ active listing mark sometime this Spring/Summer.  The higher end market ($1.2m+ in Irvine) will be under more pressure than the sub $1m market as builders will be more apt to wheel and deal to sell their "quick move-in" homes.  Remember that the majority of the new homes in Irvine are above are above $1m.  It'll be interesting how Novel Park will sell once they open up later in the Spring.  All that means is that buyers will have more homes to pick from and find reasonable sellers who wants/needs to sell their homes at a reasonable price.  I do see homes that look good and are priced right that go to escrow quickly but that's more the exception than the norm today. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 05, 2019, 10:31:53 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

Or is it just seasonal?  LOL  ;)

Now you get it. Finally.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on February 05, 2019, 11:11:28 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

Or is it just seasonal?  LOL  ;)

Now you get it. Finally.

LOL.  you are slower than I thought. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 05, 2019, 11:12:28 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

Or is it just seasonal?  LOL  ;)

Now you get it. Finally.

LOL.  you are slower than I thought.

Hey mecco12, they think we are the same person now. Should we just merge our names and call it, YellowFever?



Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on February 05, 2019, 11:14:56 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

Or is it just seasonal?  LOL  ;)

Now you get it. Finally.

LOL.  you are slower than I thought.

Hey mecco12, they think we are the same person now. Should we just merge our names and call it, YellowFever?

They as in IHO? 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: newbieinirvine on February 05, 2019, 11:19:46 AM
I fully agree. I went to Lennar's Cadence Park tour of Marcato, Capella, and Serenade floor plans/homes and they're already chopping $50K-100K off their price list. In fact the Capella homes (3740-4097 SF) price reduction was the most aggressive (up to $150K from list price) AND they had/have 10 homes to show me on the price list (3 of which fell out of escrow last month).

Now, just have to get the secondary sellers to come to terms with the market cycle and cut their prices accordingly! Some of these sellers are delusional.

 
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

My guess is that prices will be flat to slightly down this year (that's assuming that rates stay flat and the economy doesn't go into recession).  If rates go into the 3s, that'll bring more buyers off the fence and should cushion the market a bit. There are A LOT of stubborn/delusional sellers out there, especially in Irvine. Many of these sellers are foreign owners who own the homes without a mortgage who still think that their properties are special and should be trading above closed comps from early 2018.  I also believe that we will continue to see more properties come to market as we get into Spring and we'll cross the 1,000+ active listing mark sometime this Spring/Summer.  The higher end market ($1.2m+ in Irvine) will be under more pressure than the sub $1m market as builders will be more apt to wheel and deal to sell their "quick move-in" homes.  Remember that the majority of the new homes in Irvine are above are above $1m.  It'll be interesting how Novel Park will sell once they open up later in the Spring.  All that means is that buyers will have more homes to pick from and find reasonable sellers who wants/needs to sell their homes at a reasonable price.  I do see homes that look good and are priced right that go to escrow quickly but that's more the exception than the norm today.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 05, 2019, 11:21:15 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

Or is it just seasonal?  LOL  ;)

Now you get it. Finally.

LOL.  you are slower than I thought.

Hey mecco12, they think we are the same person now. Should we just merge our names and call it, YellowFever?

They as in IHO?

Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time. CV thinks I'm BTB for sure. Now zubs called me and you as BTB reincarnated in New Home Inspection thread. So they must all think we are the same person. I think someone also accused eyephone as you at some point. lol So from their theory, YF=BTB=eyephone=meccos12=Mety. It's kinda fun they think we are the same person. I might as well as act like I'm YF from now on.  >:D ;D



Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 05, 2019, 11:26:42 AM
Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time.

Are you eyephone now? Show me where I have been doing what you said for a "long time".

I vaguely recall calling you (or someone else) BTB's wife as a joke because of their ardent support but I think you are stretching this "long time accusation" notion.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on February 05, 2019, 11:31:25 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

Or is it just seasonal?  LOL  ;)

Now you get it. Finally.

LOL.  you are slower than I thought.

Hey mecco12, they think we are the same person now. Should we just merge our names and call it, YellowFever?

They as in IHO?

Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time. CV thinks I'm BTB for sure. Now zubs called me and you as BTB reincarnated in New Home Inspection thread. So they must all think we are the same person. I think someone also accused eyephone as you at some point. lol So from their theory, YF=BTB=eyephone=meccos12=Mety. It's kinda fun they think we are the same person. I might as well as act like I'm YF from now on.  >:D ;D

Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on February 05, 2019, 11:36:00 AM
I fully agree. I went to Lennar's Cadence Park tour of Marcato, Capella, and Serenade floor plans/homes and they're already chopping $50K-100K off their price list. In fact the Capella homes (3740-4097 SF) price reduction was the most aggressive (up to $150K from list price) AND they had/have 10 homes to show me on the price list (3 of which fell out of escrow last month).

Now, just have to get the secondary sellers to come to terms with the market cycle and cut their prices accordingly! Some of these sellers are delusional.

 
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

My guess is that prices will be flat to slightly down this year (that's assuming that rates stay flat and the economy doesn't go into recession).  If rates go into the 3s, that'll bring more buyers off the fence and should cushion the market a bit. There are A LOT of stubborn/delusional sellers out there, especially in Irvine. Many of these sellers are foreign owners who own the homes without a mortgage who still think that their properties are special and should be trading above closed comps from early 2018.  I also believe that we will continue to see more properties come to market as we get into Spring and we'll cross the 1,000+ active listing mark sometime this Spring/Summer.  The higher end market ($1.2m+ in Irvine) will be under more pressure than the sub $1m market as builders will be more apt to wheel and deal to sell their "quick move-in" homes.  Remember that the majority of the new homes in Irvine are above are above $1m.  It'll be interesting how Novel Park will sell once they open up later in the Spring.  All that means is that buyers will have more homes to pick from and find reasonable sellers who wants/needs to sell their homes at a reasonable price.  I do see homes that look good and are priced right that go to escrow quickly but that's more the exception than the norm today.

 But this could just be seasonal... ask IHO.  LOL
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 05, 2019, 11:37:03 AM
Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time.

Are you eyephone now? Show me where I have been doing what you said for a "long time".

I vaguely recall calling you (or someone else) BTB's wife as a joke because of their ardent support but I think you are stretching this "long time accusation" notion.

Ok, let me rephrase it. Man, you so nitpicking.

IHO called me BTB's wife couple months ago just because I agreed with him in some stuff. I knew it was a joke of course.

BUT I do believe he still time to time maybe occasionally or maybe firmly believes I am BTB's or YF's another account. CV always thought I was BTB I guess since I wasn't saying much nice stuff about GP where I think he is kind of related to. But it's just funny how some other TI members also think I'm BTB. LOL. Being influence Much???



 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 05, 2019, 11:40:39 AM
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

Or is it just seasonal?  LOL  ;)

Now you get it. Finally.

LOL.  you are slower than I thought.

Hey mecco12, they think we are the same person now. Should we just merge our names and call it, YellowFever?

They as in IHO?

Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time. CV thinks I'm BTB for sure. Now zubs called me and you as BTB reincarnated in New Home Inspection thread. So they must all think we are the same person. I think someone also accused eyephone as you at some point. lol So from their theory, YF=BTB=eyephone=meccos12=Mety. It's kinda fun they think we are the same person. I might as well as act like I'm YF from now on.  >:D ;D

Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

Maybe. I wasn't thinking that deep, but maybe you right.



IHO just called me eyephone also. :D   So whom should I play my role as in TI? eyephone? BTB? YF? ps9?




Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 05, 2019, 11:55:16 AM
Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time.

Are you eyephone now? Show me where I have been doing what you said for a "long time".

I vaguely recall calling you (or someone else) BTB's wife as a joke because of their ardent support but I think you are stretching this "long time accusation" notion.

Ok, let me rephrase it. Man, you so nitpicking.

IHO called me BTB's wife couple months ago just because I agreed with him in some stuff. I knew it was a joke of course.

BUT I do believe he still time to time maybe occasionally or maybe firmly believes I am BTB's or YF's another account. CV always thought I was BTB I guess since I wasn't saying much nice stuff about GP where I think he is kind of related to. But it's just funny how some other TI members also think I'm BTB. LOL. Being influence Much???

Again, find the posts where I accuse you of being BTB in a non-joking manner. I've even said I don't think you are BTB.

And unlike eyephone and meccos12, I can actually provide the posts to prove what I'm saying:

And I don't think anyone really thinks you are BTB, but the way you say you know his stance and viewpoint and how you defend him really does come off like you are his wife. If I could thank bones' post 10 more times, I would... because that was hilarious.

That's not nitpicking, that's accuracy.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 05, 2019, 11:56:51 AM
Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time.

Are you eyephone now? Show me where I have been doing what you said for a "long time".

I vaguely recall calling you (or someone else) BTB's wife as a joke because of their ardent support but I think you are stretching this "long time accusation" notion.

Ok, let me rephrase it. Man, you so nitpicking.

IHO called me BTB's wife couple months ago just because I agreed with him in some stuff. I knew it was a joke of course.

BUT I do believe he still time to time maybe occasionally or maybe firmly believes I am BTB's or YF's another account. CV always thought I was BTB I guess since I wasn't saying much nice stuff about GP where I think he is kind of related to. But it's just funny how some other TI members also think I'm BTB. LOL. Being influence Much???

Again, find the posts where I accuse you of being BTB in a non-joking manner. I've even said I don't think you are BTB.

And unlike eyephone and meccos12, I can actually provide the posts to prove what I'm saying:

And I don't think anyone really thinks you are BTB, but the way you say you know his stance and viewpoint and how you defend him really does come off like you are his wife. If I could thank bones' post 10 more times, I would... because that was hilarious.

That's not nitpicking, that's accuracy.

You so sexy.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 05, 2019, 12:00:49 PM
One question. Kinda off topic (not really), but since we are in accusing people mode.

Are BK and IHS the same person?



Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 05, 2019, 12:01:27 PM
Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

Go back and read the Housing Analysis thread... I was asking for eyephone's analysis and opinions on why he thinks that way. I also asked for details like how much and how long.

No one attacked... we just asked for clarification, analysis and details (of which you finally stepped in and provided which I appreciated).

If anyone is attacking, it's you for questioning my credibility when I answered all the questions you asked of me, I even provided historical posts to give you context which instead you tried to turn into more ways to try to prove me wrong.

That was my mistake for trying to have a discussion with you. I thought you were only interested in providing data and facts... so why do you keep posting your opinion on my credibility? Why is that so important to you? Does it make you feel superior on an anonymous forum to question my credibility?

LOL
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 05, 2019, 12:02:14 PM
One question. Kinda off topic (not really), but since we are in accusing people mode.

Are BK and IHS the same person?





I plead the 5th. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on February 05, 2019, 12:07:26 PM
IHO.  its very simple.  Dont try to complicate things to hide the facts. 

People like me and eyephone called a housing slowdown early on.   In fact I even called for a market top sometime during the summer, when people thought housing was still hot.   You refuted our claims and implied otherwise.  We went on back and forth defending each of our positions over many threads.
In the end, you were wrong.  However rather than just admit to the truth, you continue to carry on with these lame responses.  This is why you have no credibility.   
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 05, 2019, 12:24:29 PM
It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

I fully agree. I went to Lennar's Cadence Park tour of Marcato, Capella, and Serenade floor plans/homes and they're already chopping $50K-100K off their price list. In fact the Capella homes (3740-4097 SF) price reduction was the most aggressive (up to $150K from list price) AND they had/have 10 homes to show me on the price list (3 of which fell out of escrow last month).

Now, just have to get the secondary sellers to come to terms with the market cycle and cut their prices accordingly! Some of these sellers are delusional.

 
@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

My guess is that prices will be flat to slightly down this year (that's assuming that rates stay flat and the economy doesn't go into recession).  If rates go into the 3s, that'll bring more buyers off the fence and should cushion the market a bit. There are A LOT of stubborn/delusional sellers out there, especially in Irvine. Many of these sellers are foreign owners who own the homes without a mortgage who still think that their properties are special and should be trading above closed comps from early 2018.  I also believe that we will continue to see more properties come to market as we get into Spring and we'll cross the 1,000+ active listing mark sometime this Spring/Summer.  The higher end market ($1.2m+ in Irvine) will be under more pressure than the sub $1m market as builders will be more apt to wheel and deal to sell their "quick move-in" homes.  Remember that the majority of the new homes in Irvine are above are above $1m.  It'll be interesting how Novel Park will sell once they open up later in the Spring.  All that means is that buyers will have more homes to pick from and find reasonable sellers who wants/needs to sell their homes at a reasonable price.  I do see homes that look good and are priced right that go to escrow quickly but that's more the exception than the norm today.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on February 05, 2019, 12:40:05 PM
It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

Be careful advising people to wait to buy.  IHO and CV will blast you for this.  Just look at what happened with eyephone. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 05, 2019, 12:49:12 PM
It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

Be careful advising people to wait to buy.  IHO and CV will blast you for this.  Just look at what happened with eyephone. 

I'm just the local TI realtor speaking his mind but I'm sure most people including IHO and CV would agree with me except for delusional sellers like 107 Cardinal.  haha
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 05, 2019, 01:30:52 PM
One question. Kinda off topic (not really), but since we are in accusing people mode.

Are BK and IHS the same person?

I plead the 5th. :)

I kinda thought their speaking or writing styles were similar. I don't know if that's the Chinese style of language or expression they are used to. I don't even know if they are Chinese, but just saying I find similarity. Anyways, like zubs said, it don't really matter if they are the same person or not. Chinese or American or Mexican I don't really care. Just got curious all the sudden. And as far as I know, BTB isn't back. There are some suspicious ones, but we will see.  8)

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on February 05, 2019, 01:31:03 PM
It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

Be careful advising people to wait to buy.  IHO and CV will blast you for this.  Just look at what happened with eyephone.

Everyone entitled to their opinions. You can wait, or you can buy as long as you happy with it, whoever saying is just noise.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 05, 2019, 01:33:37 PM
It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

Be careful advising people to wait to buy.  IHO and CV will blast you for this.  Just look at what happened with eyephone.

Everyone entitled to their opinions. You can wait, or you can buy as long as you happy with it, whoever saying is just noise.

Well said, sir.
(https://i.imgur.com/98m7SQA.gif)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on February 05, 2019, 01:37:02 PM
Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

Go back and read the Housing Analysis thread... I was asking for eyephone's analysis and opinions on why he thinks that way. I also asked for details like how much and how long.

No one attacked... we just asked for clarification, analysis and details (of which you finally stepped in and provided which I appreciated).

If anyone is attacking, it's you for questioning my credibility when I answered all the questions you asked of me, I even provided historical posts to give you context which instead you tried to turn into more ways to try to prove me wrong.

That was my mistake for trying to have a discussion with you. I thought you were only interested in providing data and facts... so why do you keep posting your opinion on my credibility? Why is that so important to you? Does it make you feel superior on an anonymous forum to question my credibility?

LOL

Since this is an anonymous forum. Is it okay to talk nonsense like what you are doing? It’s plain and simple that you are trolling. You shouldn’t be surprised it people second guess your posts.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 05, 2019, 01:42:23 PM
Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

Go back and read the Housing Analysis thread... I was asking for eyephone's analysis and opinions on why he thinks that way. I also asked for details like how much and how long.

No one attacked... we just asked for clarification, analysis and details (of which you finally stepped in and provided which I appreciated).

If anyone is attacking, it's you for questioning my credibility when I answered all the questions you asked of me, I even provided historical posts to give you context which instead you tried to turn into more ways to try to prove me wrong.

That was my mistake for trying to have a discussion with you. I thought you were only interested in providing data and facts... so why do you keep posting your opinion on my credibility? Why is that so important to you? Does it make you feel superior on an anonymous forum to question my credibility?

LOL

Since this is an anonymous forum. Is it okay to talk nonsense like what you are doing? It’s plain and simple that you are trolling. You shouldn’t be surprised it people second guess your posts.

Just post this whenever he trolls you.

(https://i.imgur.com/N523LbH.gif)

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on February 05, 2019, 01:56:11 PM
Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   


We never said that housing was strong and there was no slowdown...I guess you could imply all the seasonality crap from IHO as us saying there is no slowdown...a bit of a stretch though.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 05, 2019, 02:11:17 PM
Rick Rude is awesome.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 05, 2019, 02:11:58 PM
Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

Go back and read the Housing Analysis thread... I was asking for eyephone's analysis and opinions on why he thinks that way. I also asked for details like how much and how long.

No one attacked... we just asked for clarification, analysis and details (of which you finally stepped in and provided which I appreciated).

If anyone is attacking, it's you for questioning my credibility when I answered all the questions you asked of me, I even provided historical posts to give you context which instead you tried to turn into more ways to try to prove me wrong.

That was my mistake for trying to have a discussion with you. I thought you were only interested in providing data and facts... so why do you keep posting your opinion on my credibility? Why is that so important to you? Does it make you feel superior on an anonymous forum to question my credibility?

LOL

Since this is an anonymous forum. Is it okay to talk nonsense like what you are doing? It’s plain and simple that you are trolling. You shouldn’t be surprised it people second guess your posts.


Blah blah blah. Zero calorie post.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineprospect on February 07, 2019, 08:29:21 AM
hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on February 07, 2019, 08:36:53 AM
Being grown-up sucks.  :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on February 07, 2019, 09:19:28 AM
hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

If this childish bickering gets someone like you to post for the first time, then I say:


(https://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/5bb84e3b210000d601c9396e.jpeg?ops=scalefit_720_noupscale)


(https://www.talkirvine.com/data:image/jpeg;base64,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)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 07, 2019, 10:24:51 AM
Welcome back, YF!
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 08, 2019, 07:09:22 AM
hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Sure, it does get elementary at times.

But don't discount the importance of "bickering". Confrontation and disagreement are actually effective tools in getting to details or points that aren't easily discerned due to lack of tone in a medium like this. Many times, the resolution or compromise that results from a conflict improves the overall conversation.

While some may consider it arguing (or what some members think is "attacking"), it really is an effort to get to the reasoning behind the opinion. Data without opinions/analysis can be misleading, as is the opposite... you need both in order to come up with a true picture of the reality. That's why forums exists, to *discuss* the data, opinions and facts to give deeper color to the picture. That's why historically, the IHB and TI forums have always had more activity than the IHB/TI blog, because it's a conversation and not just a lecture.

Welcome to TI Elementary. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Cares on February 08, 2019, 08:48:32 AM
Welcome to TI Elementary. :)

What's the GreatSchools rating?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on February 08, 2019, 08:55:13 AM
hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Believe it or not. Because of the slowdown talk it saved some members money. (Just tune out the noise and look at the data people provided)

You know what I’m noticing a pattern that someone on TI chases or trolls members away from TI. (For example: Belly, another member I think his sn was land of land)

For those who don’t know who the TI member land of land was. He gave great info about new projects in Irvine like new neighborhoods. Also, he gave other insights that was really helpful.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on February 08, 2019, 09:52:33 AM
hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Believe it or not. Because of the slowdown talk it saved some members money. (Just tune out the noise and look at the data people provided)

You know what I’m noticing a pattern that someone on TI chases or trolls members away from TI. (For example: Belly, another member I think his sn was land of land)

For those who don’t know who the TI member land of land was. He gave great info about new projects in Irvine like new neighborhoods. Also, he gave other insights that was really helpful.

Hold on here cowboy. Its easy to say that you saved people money without actual facts and data. Name one person that you know, actually on TI readers that saved by you. Tough question, I know, but you got to prove your writing.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on February 08, 2019, 10:13:36 AM
hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Believe it or not. Because of the slowdown talk it saved some members money. (Just tune out the noise and look at the data people provided)

You know what I’m noticing a pattern that someone on TI chases or trolls members away from TI. (For example: Belly, another member I think his sn was land of land)

For those who don’t know who the TI member land of land was. He gave great info about new projects in Irvine like new neighborhoods. Also, he gave other insights that was really helpful.

Hold on here cowboy. Its easy to say that you saved people money without actual facts and data. Name one person that you know, actually on TI readers that saved by you. Tough question, I know, but you got to prove your writing.

Let me look it up. I’ll get back to you later today.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on February 08, 2019, 10:46:40 AM
hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Believe it or not. Because of the slowdown talk it saved some members money. (Just tune out the noise and look at the data people provided)

You know what I’m noticing a pattern that someone on TI chases or trolls members away from TI. (For example: Belly, another member I think his sn was land of land)

For those who don’t know who the TI member land of land was. He gave great info about new projects in Irvine like new neighborhoods. Also, he gave other insights that was really helpful.

LandowhateverLand was using TI to get people to subscribe to her website.  She erased her info here when we made fun of her. 
FYI: I think she was female...her website was pink.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on February 08, 2019, 11:17:55 AM
Here to give Eyephone some credit. I've been a long time lurker on this forum prior to joining in the discussion last July. Being bearish isn't exactly easy on this forum.

I been helping my "Irvine or bust" parents with a 1031 exchange for almost a year. We just opened escrow last week and will be saving a lot of $$$ because I was able to talk my parents into waiting. Eyephone and a few other bearish members were not the sole reason or the top reason I was able to convince them to hold off but it helped.

Back to the topic of the post. The comps for the home we are in escrow for was closing at slightly above 1 million in April,June 2018. They were closing for low 900s at the end of 2018. We used that and made gazillion low ball offers and got a desperate owner to agree to budge for just above 870k.

The market is softening and inventory is increasing. If you are in the market to buy a home, definitely leverage this to your advantage.


Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: newbieinirvine on February 08, 2019, 12:52:49 PM
Here to give Eyephone some credit. I've been a long time lurker on this forum prior to joining in the discussion last July. Being bearish isn't exactly easy on this forum.

I been helping my "Irvine or bust" parents with a 1031 exchange for almost a year. We just opened escrow last week and will be saving a lot of $$$ because I was able to talk my parents into waiting. Eyephone and a few other bearish members were not the sole reason or the top reason I was able to convince them to hold off but it helped.

Back to the topic of the post. The comps for the home we are in escrow for was closing at slightly above 1 million in April,June 2018. They were closing for low 900s at the end of 2018. We used that and made gazillion low ball offers and got a desperate owner to agree to budge for just above 870k.

The market is softening and inventory is increasing. If you are in the market to buy a home, definitely leverage this to your advantage.

+1.

I'm in the market to buy now and credit TI for all the research and feedback to help me wait. My realtor was pushing me to buy 1 year ago and I said prices will drop. My wife and the realtor didn't agree, but just last month, my realtor caved and said that she's glad I waited because prices have dropped (with SP/LP spreads widening and DOM increasing).

I specifically saw the change end of December/early January when homes were falling out of escrow (@ the $1.2-1.5M range). Now I'm just waiting to find the right home ($/layout) somewhere in the GP.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 12, 2019, 04:45:09 PM
A little specific update for the middle of the month...I've made offers for 6 properties for a buyer (properties listed between low $600s and mid $700s) and 3 of the listings have multiple offers (Woodbury and Northwood).  Seems like some buyers on the lower end of the market are beginning to nibble on properties that look good and are priced right.  On the high end of the market, the number of listings keeps piling up.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 13, 2019, 02:24:53 PM
A little specific update for the middle of the month...I've made offers for 6 properties for a buyer (properties listed between low $600s and mid $700s) and 3 of the listings have multiple offers (Woodbury and Northwood).  Seems like some buyers on the lower end of the market are beginning to nibble on properties that look good and are priced right.  On the high end of the market, the number of listings keeps piling up.

That could tell either of these two scenarios.

a) Those lower end buyers (aka. newbies) are jumping on the bandwagon late while all the pros already bought their investment homes before the peak.

b) The market is picking up and the infamous #seasonality is playing its card.


Another interesting note - Since when was the $700k buyer considered a lower end buyer? Well maybe it is in Irvine.  ;D




Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 13, 2019, 02:55:18 PM
A little specific update for the middle of the month...I've made offers for 6 properties for a buyer (properties listed between low $600s and mid $700s) and 3 of the listings have multiple offers (Woodbury and Northwood).  Seems like some buyers on the lower end of the market are beginning to nibble on properties that look good and are priced right.  On the high end of the market, the number of listings keeps piling up.

That could tell either of these two scenarios.

a) Those lower end buyers (aka. newbies) are jumping on the bandwagon late while all the pros already bought their investment homes before the peak.

b) The market is picking up and the infamous #seasonality is playing its card.


Another interesting note - Since when was the $700k buyer considered a lower end buyer? Well maybe it is in Irvine.  ;D


To early to tell just yet but it seems that some buyers have come off the sidelines with the lower rates. Doesn't mean that buyers are bidding over list price, in fact all 6 offers that I made for that buyer were all below list price and some about 5% below list price.  There are some stubborn seller on the low end too but given enough time linger on the market they'll learn.  haha
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 11, 2019, 04:18:11 PM
It's that time again...to post up some data with the attached excel file and analysis on what happened in the previous month.  Sales came in at 139 homes in the month of February 2019 or 14% higher than January 2019 but a whopping 16% lower than February 2018.  The medium price per SF from a year-over-year basis decreased by 1.3% for the first time January 2015.  Keep in mind that the February closings were for the most part escrows that opened in December and January right before interest rates started dropping.  The number of active listings increased by 54 homes from the end of January to the end of February but increased by a whopping 359 homes from the end of February 2018 (I added 2 additional columns in my file to show the YOY change and % change in the inventory level at the end of each month).  This increase in inventory caused the # of months of inventory to increase to 5.11 months using a 3-month trailing average.  This would put the Irvine market as a weak buyer's market, but when you dig a little deeper the big factor driving this increase is the every increasing supply of higher end homes ($1m+, especially over $1.5m).  If you were to look at just the homes under $1m, the months of inventory of homes is between 3-4 months which is a neutral market. 

As I mentioned last month, I had a handful of lower end buyers come off the sidelines in Jan/Feb (sub $800k buyers) because of the material drop in rates and softer prices.  I got most of them buyers into escrow into escrow in a short period of time as there were enough good inventory of homes to look at but I did encounter multiple offers situations on 3 of the homes that I made offers on in Irvine (again, sub $800k homes).  We were a bit surprised that these homes were getting multiples even though they were prices fairly reasonably.  I also noticed that the showing traffic at my Nectarine listing in Columbus Grove was also fairly sold and that's why were we able to get into escrow within a few weeks.  My take is that there were many other buyers in the low end of the market that came off the sidelines during the same time mine did.  However, the fact remains that if a home is overpriced and/or doesn't show well (whether it's a lower end home or not) it will sit on the market. 

From an interest rate perspective, interest rates continued to bleed lower in February with some lenders offering a 30-year rate at 3.875% and a 7-year ARM rate at 3.25%. The weaker than expected Jobs numbers released on March 11th might have pushed rates down even a bit lower.  I believe that rates coming down is putting somewhat of a floor on the lower end home prices as affordability for buyers who are sensitive to interest rates and monthly payments.  It'll be curious to see how much lower rates can go, but the lower they go the more lower end buyers will be apt to look to buy a home given that the job market is still very strong. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 11, 2019, 04:21:52 PM
Here's a few 10-year charts to put things into perspective for active listings, home sales, median price per SF, and days on market...

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: the.irvine on March 11, 2019, 04:39:23 PM
If you have data in the excel,it would be cool to the correlation
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineband on March 11, 2019, 05:53:56 PM
It's that time again...to post up some data with the attached excel file and analysis on what happened in the previous month.  Sales came in at 139 homes in the month of February 2019 or 14% higher than January 2019 but a whopping 16% lower than February 2018.  The medium price per SF from a year-over-year basis decreased by 1.3% for the first time January 2015.  Keep in mind that the February closings were for the most part escrows that opened in December and January right before interest rates started dropping.  The number of active listings increased by 54 homes from the end of January to the end of February but increased by a whopping 359 homes from the end of February 2018 (I added 2 additional columns in my file to show the YOY change and % change in the inventory level at the end of each month).  This increase in inventory caused the # of months of inventory to increase to 5.11 months using a 3-month trailing average.  This would put the Irvine market as a weak buyer's market, but when you dig a little deeper the big factor driving this increase is the every increasing supply of higher end homes ($1m+, especially over $1.5m).  If you were to look at just the homes under $1m, the months of inventory of homes is between 3-4 months which is a neutral market. 

As I mentioned last month, I had a handful of lower end buyers come off the sidelines in Jan/Feb (sub $800k buyers) because of the material drop in rates and softer prices.  I got most of them buyers into escrow into escrow in a short period of time as there were enough good inventory of homes to look at but I did encounter multiple offers situations on 3 of the homes that I made offers on in Irvine (again, sub $800k homes).  We were a bit surprised that these homes were getting multiples even though they were prices fairly reasonably.  I also noticed that the showing traffic at my Nectarine listing in Columbus Grove was also fairly sold and that's why were we able to get into escrow within a few weeks.  My take is that there were many other buyers in the low end of the market that came off the sidelines during the same time mine did.  However, the fact remains that if a home is overpriced and/or doesn't show well (whether it's a lower end home or not) it will sit on the market. 

From an interest rate perspective, interest rates continued to bleed lower in February with some lenders offering a 30-year rate at 3.875% and a 7-year ARM rate at 3.25%. The weaker than expected Jobs numbers released on March 11th might have pushed rates down even a bit lower.  I believe that rates coming down is putting somewhat of a floor on the lower end home prices as affordability for buyers who are sensitive to interest rates and monthly payments.  It'll be curious to see how much lower rates can go, but the lower they go the more lower end buyers will be apt to look to buy a home given that the job market is still very strong.

This is awesome! Is there a way to break this down further? I haven’t seen much sfr for sale in woodbridge. At present I think there are only 4-5 for sale 1-1.25mil and 1 house under a 1.0m. That seems like very little? Also 7 homes above 1.3.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 11, 2019, 10:03:11 PM
If you have data in the excel,it would be cool to the correlation

Which additional data would you want to see in my excel schedule?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 11, 2019, 10:05:59 PM
It's that time again...to post up some data with the attached excel file and analysis on what happened in the previous month.  Sales came in at 139 homes in the month of February 2019 or 14% higher than January 2019 but a whopping 16% lower than February 2018.  The medium price per SF from a year-over-year basis decreased by 1.3% for the first time January 2015.  Keep in mind that the February closings were for the most part escrows that opened in December and January right before interest rates started dropping.  The number of active listings increased by 54 homes from the end of January to the end of February but increased by a whopping 359 homes from the end of February 2018 (I added 2 additional columns in my file to show the YOY change and % change in the inventory level at the end of each month).  This increase in inventory caused the # of months of inventory to increase to 5.11 months using a 3-month trailing average.  This would put the Irvine market as a weak buyer's market, but when you dig a little deeper the big factor driving this increase is the every increasing supply of higher end homes ($1m+, especially over $1.5m).  If you were to look at just the homes under $1m, the months of inventory of homes is between 3-4 months which is a neutral market. 

As I mentioned last month, I had a handful of lower end buyers come off the sidelines in Jan/Feb (sub $800k buyers) because of the material drop in rates and softer prices.  I got most of them buyers into escrow into escrow in a short period of time as there were enough good inventory of homes to look at but I did encounter multiple offers situations on 3 of the homes that I made offers on in Irvine (again, sub $800k homes).  We were a bit surprised that these homes were getting multiples even though they were prices fairly reasonably.  I also noticed that the showing traffic at my Nectarine listing in Columbus Grove was also fairly sold and that's why were we able to get into escrow within a few weeks.  My take is that there were many other buyers in the low end of the market that came off the sidelines during the same time mine did.  However, the fact remains that if a home is overpriced and/or doesn't show well (whether it's a lower end home or not) it will sit on the market. 

From an interest rate perspective, interest rates continued to bleed lower in February with some lenders offering a 30-year rate at 3.875% and a 7-year ARM rate at 3.25%. The weaker than expected Jobs numbers released on March 11th might have pushed rates down even a bit lower.  I believe that rates coming down is putting somewhat of a floor on the lower end home prices as affordability for buyers who are sensitive to interest rates and monthly payments.  It'll be curious to see how much lower rates can go, but the lower they go the more lower end buyers will be apt to look to buy a home given that the job market is still very strong.

This is awesome! Is there a way to break this down further? I haven’t seen much sfr for sale in woodbridge. At present I think there are only 4-5 for sale 1-1.25mil and 1 house under a 1.0m. That seems like very little? Also 7 homes above 1.3.

I can put together some rough current data for specific villages/property types upon request.  I'll see if I can pull up historical data by village by property type tomorrow as MLS is down for maintenance right now.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 12, 2019, 09:05:29 AM
So chart #3 (Closed Sales) is similar to what I see on Trulia and that's why I asked if this current slowdown is seasonal.

To clarify, what I meant was if it's within the the normal cycle of the lows/highs that real estate goes through every year. I understand that this year's data shows that volume/sales are different from previous years but if it rebounds back to where it was, even if 5-10% lower, then to me, that's is just a correction and still falls within seasonal parameters. I can go back every year and say "it's not seasonal" because the numbers are not the same YOY but that's not that I am talking about, I'm referring to the pattern that real estate takes on even when in a "real" slowdown. If you look at 2008-2013, there was still the same seasonal ups/downs occurring even though prices/volume were different each year.

Maybe I should be using the term "cyclical" but when I say seasonal I'm talking about the general movement of real estate every year from spring to winter. And again, maybe this year it's different, but we won't know for sure until we go through the year. I guess for me to think it's not seasonal is if the prices/volume continue to go down even through the spring/summer.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 12, 2019, 09:08:33 AM
Another interesting note - Since when was the $700k buyer considered a lower end buyer? Well maybe it is in Irvine.  ;D

Seems like $700k can't even get you a proper detached SFR in Irvine. It's really crazy... I'm glad I'm not just starting my family/career in Irvine today... we couldn't afford it.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: moc on March 12, 2019, 10:01:28 AM
Another interesting note - Since when was the $700k buyer considered a lower end buyer? Well maybe it is in Irvine.  ;D

Seems like $700k can't even get you a proper detached SFR in Irvine. It's really crazy... I'm glad I'm not just starting my family/career in Irvine today... we couldn't afford it.

$700k is our sweet spot - we haven't found anything detached in Irvine and there's very little that's a 3 bedroom.

Fortunately we are those crazy young people who are willing to live in 3 level town homes, which is basically the only thing we can afford in Irvine.

Here's a quick screen grab of 700k 3 bedrooms and 700k 2 bedrooms from zillow to give you an idea of how limited it is.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on March 13, 2019, 11:28:56 AM
So chart #3 (Closed Sales) is similar to what I see on Trulia and that's why I asked if this current slowdown is seasonal.

To clarify, what I meant was if it's within the the normal cycle of the lows/highs that real estate goes through every year. I understand that this year's data shows that volume/sales are different from previous years but if it rebounds back to where it was, even if 5-10% lower, then to me, that's is just a correction and still falls within seasonal parameters. I can go back every year and say "it's not seasonal" because the numbers are not the same YOY but that's not that I am talking about, I'm referring to the pattern that real estate takes on even when in a "real" slowdown. If you look at 2008-2013, there was still the same seasonal ups/downs occurring even though prices/volume were different each year.

Maybe I should be using the term "cyclical" but when I say seasonal I'm talking about the general movement of real estate every year from spring to winter. And again, maybe this year it's different, but we won't know for sure until we go through the year. I guess for me to think it's not seasonal is if the prices/volume continue to go down even through the spring/summer.

You and I have long conversations about whether this is seasonal or not.  From the beginning you have implied this slowdown is seasonal, yet when you are called out on it, you state you are just "asking" whether its seasonal or not.  Now you are back here implying its seasonal again?  You would have much more respect if you would simply make a claim and stand by it instead of being so wishy-washy. 

You point to chart #3 from 2008 to 2013 to point out that this is seasonal, yet this very chart shows that its not just seasonality.  Yes there are seasonal variations, which are the peaks and troughs you see each year, however there is a general trend where you see higher peaks and higher troughs.  At the end of this chart you can now start to see a general trend down with lower peaks and lower troughs.  This should along with the data that USC/eye/myself have provided for you should be clear enough to say this is not just seasonal variation.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 13, 2019, 03:31:37 PM
So chart #3 (Closed Sales) is similar to what I see on Trulia and that's why I asked if this current slowdown is seasonal.

To clarify, what I meant was if it's within the the normal cycle of the lows/highs that real estate goes through every year. I understand that this year's data shows that volume/sales are different from previous years but if it rebounds back to where it was, even if 5-10% lower, then to me, that's is just a correction and still falls within seasonal parameters. I can go back every year and say "it's not seasonal" because the numbers are not the same YOY but that's not that I am talking about, I'm referring to the pattern that real estate takes on even when in a "real" slowdown. If you look at 2008-2013, there was still the same seasonal ups/downs occurring even though prices/volume were different each year.

Maybe I should be using the term "cyclical" but when I say seasonal I'm talking about the general movement of real estate every year from spring to winter. And again, maybe this year it's different, but we won't know for sure until we go through the year. I guess for me to think it's not seasonal is if the prices/volume continue to go down even through the spring/summer.

You and I have long conversations about whether this is seasonal or not.  From the beginning you have implied this slowdown is seasonal, yet when you are called out on it, you state you are just "asking" whether its seasonal or not.  Now you are back here implying its seasonal again?  You would have much more respect if you would simply make a claim and stand by it instead of being so wishy-washy. 

You point to chart #3 from 2008 to 2013 to point out that this is seasonal, yet this very chart shows that its not just seasonality.  Yes there are seasonal variations, which are the peaks and troughs you see each year, however there is a general trend where you see higher peaks and higher troughs.  At the end of this chart you can now start to see a general trend down with lower peaks and lower troughs.  This should along with the data that USC/eye/myself have provided for you should be clear enough to say this is not just seasonal variation.

You should read my post instead of trying to disprove my credibility.

You still don’t get that we are not talking about the exact same thing.

And why do you think I’m concerned about your respect? I’d settle for some perspective.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 13, 2019, 04:43:51 PM
Let me try again:

To me, every season homes ebb/flow. Granted, each season the peaks and troughs may be higher or lower but they usually occur around the same time frame. That’s is what I’m referring to as seasonal. If you’re going to call a slowdown in fall and then a rise in spring, that’s not new news.

Now, if you are going to say it’s lower than normal or longer than normal, then that’s of importance. However, whenever I ask that, I don’t get a definitive answer. The ones I do get range from 5%-15% down which if you look at the chart is within tolerance for the past 5 years.

So that’s why I say I can’t know until this “season” is over. You can say the data shows otherwise but that’s why I’ve said in the past, data has been wrong (including Steve Thomas). You have to look at other things than just numbers. This is esp true for Irvine. That’s why USC’s posts are good, because it mixes data with experience.

Does that make more sense?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on March 14, 2019, 08:01:55 AM

Now, if you are going to say it’s lower than normal or longer than normal, then that’s of importance. However, whenever I ask that, I don’t get a definitive answer.


Really?  How many charts or data points have I posted on these threads that showed exactly what you claimed I havent done?  This probably is the biggest BS you have posted yet.  Anyone could clearly go back to the other threads and easily see for themselves.  The fact that data showed things were not normal from recent history is the exact reason why some of us made the call that housing was slowing down, and this was clearly explained in previous posts. 

I think when one is this delusional or a prevaricator, its pointless to have any discussion.   

Keep questioning whether this is seasonal or not.  By the time you figure it out, you probably will have completely missed this slowdown. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 14, 2019, 08:39:18 AM

Now, if you are going to say it’s lower than normal or longer than normal, then that’s of importance. However, whenever I ask that, I don’t get a definitive answer.


Really?  How many charts or data points have I posted on these threads that showed exactly what you claimed I havent done?  This probably is the biggest BS you have posted yet.  Anyone could clearly go back to the other threads and easily see for themselves.  The fact that data showed things were not normal from recent history is the exact reason why some of us made the call that housing was slowing down, and this was clearly explained in previous posts. 

I think when one is this delusional or a prevaricator, its pointless to have any discussion.   

Keep questioning whether this is seasonal or not.  By the time you figure it out, you probably will have completely missed this slowdown. 

I think you are not reading my posts, you always want to fight and not just discuss. Maybe it will help if you realize that my posts are not just directed at *you*. What I asked was not just the data you provided, but also the analysis of that data. I asked what does this data point to? How low will prices go and how long?

Luckily, you don't delete posts like BTB so this is what I'm referencing about not getting a definite answer on prices (which you are calling BS):

It seems you agree that you can’t predict real estate so no one can come up with an exact percentage or length of time, so why are you pressing me so hard on a definitive stance on seasonality? Is “I’m not sure” not a good enough answer? You think it isn’t seasonal, that’s fine... I’m still on the fence because as I’ve said multiple times, seasonality is the default.

Predicting future prices is futile, which is why I dont understand your obsession for asking people to predict future price drops.   However predicting future prices is completely different from evaluating current data, which is all I have been doing.

I press you for that answer because on multiple occasions you implied seasonality yet you wont admit it.  You say you are not sure now, but you have been implying that this is seasonal on numerous occasions to counter my points. 

I never claimed *you* didn't provide data. I even said that the data you have provided does show this is different... what I "claimed" was that others never gave me a definite answer of what percentage price drop and how long... you even said yourself that's a better question. But the answer I usually get (and not just from *you*) is "we can't predict exactly" or "we are not sure how long it will last"... how is that different from me saying "I can't know if this falls outside the realm of seasonality until we get passed this next summer"?

I'll repost this since you can't seem to understand. It even has a prediction from *you* and my question about it:

The question I had was how is it not seasonal because that's what happens every year. So you and a few others say it's not, but I've heard that before. How many times has it been predicted that this is the time that Irvine housing will drop and then it just picks back up. I remember that was being said in 2015 and prices did drop over 10% (based on Trulia) but they went back up again.

Again, the default is prices go down every year and then go back up. Now, if the prices don't go back up... then yes, it's not seasonal, but I'm not sure how that is a measurement of my credibility. People can be wrong, look at Steve Thomas, he's been off a number of times yet you keep citing him as a credible source of data and according to eyephone, anyone in the business has their own agenda so really can't be trusted of which Steve Thomas qualifies for.

And again, I've never asked for an exact percentage, a ballpark is good enough. Why? Because... history shows that within a certain margin, prices do down and back up, so if any prediction falls within that percentage, how is that different from previous cycles?

You even said it yourself:

My predictions:
in 1 year: I expect 5% drop.   in 5 years I expect 10% drop, only because its on the way up from a 15-20% drop between years 1-5.   

So if housing prices drop only 5% this time and go back up, that's within the margin of seasonal drops (at least by recent history). However, if prices drop more than 10%, say like 15-20% like you predicted, and remain that way for an extended period of time, than I do agree it's beyond seasonal.

But we can't know that until the end of the next selling season.

So in 1 year you expect a 5% drop? Is that really a "slowdown"? Again, maybe we should define "slowdown" as there seems to be some misunderstanding about that term and the term "seasonal".  You also say that prices should drop 20% within a 5 year time frame... and that's where I agreed with you, if they drop that far for an extended period of time, that's outside of the seasonal parameters (in my mind). But, most are not making a 20% price drop prediction.

And if prices stay within a 10-15% margin, how is that any different from the previous 5 years?

Please just answer the question rather than trying to argue how delusional you think I am.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineband on March 17, 2019, 01:47:45 PM
USCT were you able to pull WB data? I’m not seeing much of any SFR under 1.25, maybe 1 house. I was just curious what the data showed. Maybe inventory is up in other parts of Irvine.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on March 17, 2019, 07:04:34 PM
USCT were you able to pull WB data? I’m not seeing much of any SFR under 1.25, maybe 1 house. I was just curious what the data showed. Maybe inventory is up in other parts of Irvine.
There's quite a few SFR under 1.25 in WB. Quick scan on redfin showed at least 5
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2-Cedarspring-92604/home/4690847
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Marsh-Hawk-92604/home/4691162
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/3-Fallbrook-92604/home/4690012
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Autumn-Oak-92604/home/4689941
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineband on March 17, 2019, 07:58:29 PM
USCT were you able to pull WB data? I’m not seeing much of any SFR under 1.25, maybe 1 house. I was just curious what the data showed. Maybe inventory is up in other parts of Irvine.
There's quite a few SFR under 1.25 in WB. Quick scan on redfin showed at least 5
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2-Cedarspring-92604/home/4690847
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Marsh-Hawk-92604/home/4691162
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/3-Fallbrook-92604/home/4690012
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Autumn-Oak-92604/home/4689941

These I’ve seen. Sorry I meant 1.2. First one is a 3bd priced out of the 3bd range. Second one backs to a main road so its probably overpriced by at least 65k. Close to main road is fine but backing straight up it not what I want. 3rd one I’m not sure what the issue is but its out of my range. 4th I cant explain but with only 3 pics available it must be missing plumbing or something. The last two have also been sitting for awhile. I want some new inventory.

This one seems alright though:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Bloomdale-92614/home/4696191?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

This one I love the price but its just 2nd and zero yard.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Racing-Wind-92614/home/4695413?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on March 18, 2019, 03:17:26 PM
So in 1 year you expect a 5% drop? Is that really a "slowdown"? Again, maybe we should define "slowdown" as there seems to be some misunderstanding about that term and the term "seasonal".  You also say that prices should drop 20% within a 5 year time frame... and that's where I agreed with you, if they drop that far for an extended period of time, that's outside of the seasonal parameters (in my mind). But, most are not making a 20% price drop prediction.

And if prices stay within a 10-15% margin, how is that any different from the previous 5 years?

Please just answer the question rather than trying to argue how delusional you think I am.

May I call 20% drop? Ok, maybe more like 10-15% for Irvine.

Even 15% will be so much discount IMO. I mean $1m home will be $850k and $850k will be $722k. That's pretty huge, don't you think?

Many experts seem to make a call it will be flat to a little bit of down so I'm just going a bit more wild.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 18, 2019, 04:22:33 PM
USCT were you able to pull WB data? I’m not seeing much of any SFR under 1.25, maybe 1 house. I was just curious what the data showed. Maybe inventory is up in other parts of Irvine.

I currently see 5 homes that are 4+ bedroom at and under $1.25m in Woodbridge (7 more over $1.25m).  In the past 6 months, there have been 7 homes that are 4+ bedroom that sold for $1.25m or less.  It doesn't seem that Woodbridge has "a lot" of SFRs up to $1.25m.  As I mentioned, the market from $800k to $1.25m is still moving (just not as fast the sub $1m market).  I'd say in general that the sub $800k market is neutral, the $800k to $1.25m a weak buyer's market, and over $1.25m is a buyer's market.  Today, over 40% inventory of homes on the market for sale in Irvine are newer homes (either new homes from the builder or ones built after 2012). 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on March 19, 2019, 07:16:17 PM

This one seems alright though:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Bloomdale-92614/home/4696191?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link


This one looks nice. But the price is definitely too high. Looks like the seller is still looking for early 2018 prices. Look at this WB home that recently closed

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/145-W-Yale-Loop-92604/unit-1/home/5462921

Oct 2018 list price 1.15 mil
Feb 2019 sold price 876k.

Whooping 25% off the original list price.

If you are very firm on WB and SFR you could be waiting for awhile. WB resales are mostly condos.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineband on March 19, 2019, 08:02:43 PM

This one seems alright though:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Bloomda

le-92614/home/4696191?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/145-W-Yale-Loop-92604/unit-1/home/5462921

Oct 2018 list price 1.15 mil
Feb 2019 sold price 876k.

Whooping 25% off the original list price.

If you are very firm on WB and SFR you could be waiting for awhile. WB resales are mostly condos.

I dont believe the Bloomdale house is that far off the mark. Maybe 1.05 - 1.1 makes more sense. I can’t compare the West Yale home to Bloomdale. One is a condo, backing to the loop, with a $456/monthly hoa fee, and no yard. Bloomdale’s hoa is $97 a month, it is surrounded by other homes, and its an sfr. The Yale Loop home should never have been listed over 950. That is a 850 - 900 condo. I believe the lower/mod Sfr hold up the best during a cyclical price drop/recession.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 21, 2019, 08:27:40 AM
May I call 20% drop? Ok, maybe more like 10-15% for Irvine.

Even 15% will be so much discount IMO. I mean $1m home will be $850k and $850k will be $722k. That's pretty huge, don't you think?

Many experts seem to make a call it will be flat to a little bit of down so I'm just going a bit more wild.

For a 15% drop in Irvine, something drastic would have to happen to non-Irvine real estate (like 25% drop), so not sure that will happen.

Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 21, 2019, 10:33:40 AM
May I call 20% drop? Ok, maybe more like 10-15% for Irvine.

Even 15% will be so much discount IMO. I mean $1m home will be $850k and $850k will be $722k. That's pretty huge, don't you think?

Many experts seem to make a call it will be flat to a little bit of down so I'm just going a bit more wild.

For a 15% drop in Irvine, something drastic would have to happen to non-Irvine real estate (like 25% drop), so not sure that will happen.

Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).

The lower end definitely feels like it flattening out as rates continue to bleed lower and the stock market continues to grind higher.  Here are 3 examples of offers that I made for buyers on Irvine homes in Feb, all 3 sold over list price with multiple offers and I was only able to get one of the homes for a buyer (188 Guinevere)...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/188-Guinevere-92620/home/12253576

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Jefferson-92620/home/4782973

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/38-Concierto-92620/home/7210783

That being said, all 3 of these homes were priced reasonably and showed well and only sold $2k to $6k over the list price.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: lnc on March 21, 2019, 01:04:44 PM

Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).

I think the sales and price are going back up. 

Mortgage rate are dropping and there's a big jump in February existing home sales.  Tomorrow NAR going to release February existing home sales figure and it going to surprise a lot of people. 

If the mortgage rate continues to go down and sales continues to go up, the housing price are going to pick up.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 21, 2019, 02:30:55 PM

Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).

I think the sales and price are going back up. 

Mortgage rate are dropping and there's a big jump in February existing home sales.  Tomorrow NAR going to release February existing home sales figure and it going to surprise a lot of people. 

If the mortgage rate continues to go down and sales continues to go up, the housing price are going to pick up.

The lower end price may rise a bit but there's a lot of inventory to work through on the higher end for prices to go up in that price segment. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on March 21, 2019, 03:11:12 PM
Seems like the interest rate will keep falling. This is a trap to capture many lower end buyers. Then there will be a recession possibly later this year or next year (I lean towards more around the presidential election time) and those who bought so high will regret. Of course, if they bought a home they could afford, then no biggie, right?

Again, these are my opinions and predictions. Take it or predict your own.



Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 21, 2019, 05:30:40 PM
Sounds like a mini-clone of what happened in during the last crash where everyone thought prices would crater because interest rates would go up and the Fed surprised everyone (and I mean everyone because no one predicted rates to fall to the 3s) by bringing rates to record lows.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on March 22, 2019, 09:30:13 AM
Sounds like a mini-clone of what happened in during the last crash where everyone thought prices would crater because interest rates would go up and the Fed surprised everyone (and I mean everyone because no one predicted rates to fall to the 3s) by bringing rates to record lows.

THE CRASH, the mother of housing melt down in 08, WAS a once in a lifetime events. Now when a slow down occur, other triggers will kick-in to juice the systems and revive it. Buy when rate is high and rooms to negotiate  for price improvements, or wait for price to stagnate and rate drop and have no room to negotiate. It’s not an easy choice, so people just rent longer and wait. During the .com crash 2001, housing actually took off and gained momentum as people cashed out and dumping it into real estate.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineband on March 22, 2019, 11:43:24 AM

This one seems alright though:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Bloomdale-92614/home/4696191?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link


This one looks nice. But the price is definitely too high. Looks like the seller is still looking for early 2018 prices. Look at this WB home that recently closed

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/145-W-Yale-Loop-92604/unit-1/home/5462921

Oct 2018 list price 1.15 mil
Feb 2019 sold price 876k.

Whooping 25% off the original list price.

If you are very firm on WB and SFR you could be waiting for awhile. WB resales are mostly condos.

Let us see how “definitely too high” 29 Bloomdale really is since it just went pending. Again, the West Yale home is a poor comp.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: meccos12 on March 22, 2019, 11:54:58 AM
Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).
I actually think the opposite is happening.  Sales volume is picking back up, but prices are still dropping.  Im sure the lower and lower rates have helped sales.  Prices follow volume and the affect on prices is delayed.  Just my opinion.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on March 22, 2019, 12:06:48 PM
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.

The drop never happened as big as we all thought...and why?

Government interference.  Mortgage rates at 3% and lower.

If housing keeps going down, I expect our government to rescue housing again. QE infinity....no one thought the government would do such a thing, but they did.....How long can we kick the can?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on March 22, 2019, 12:48:37 PM
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.


Yeah people predicted a lot worse than 40% drops.  Eyephone...err, I mean Graphix used to say you'd buy SFRs in Irvine for what, 300k or what after the crash?

My current residenc sold at the peak 650 and I bought for 445 in 2009... so not a small drop.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on March 22, 2019, 01:12:26 PM
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.


Yeah people predicted a lot worse than 40% drops.  Eyephone...err, I mean Graphix used to say you'd buy SFRs in Irvine for what, 300k or what after the crash?

My current residenc sold at the peak 650 and I bought for 445 in 2009... so not a small drop.

Are you saying eyephone = Graphix? Also since someone called me if I'm eyephone or meccos12 or BTB/YF. Are we all the same person? That means I'm pretty much running TI? Are you me? One person who is not doubted for having a burner account is IHO although I called him with B_T_B account once.

Yeah, this message was for entertainment purposes only.

Carry on.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on March 22, 2019, 01:59:14 PM

Are you saying eyephone = Graphix? Also since someone called me if I'm eyephone or meccos12 or BTB/YF. Are we all the same person? That means I'm pretty much running TI? Are you me? One person who is not doubted for having a burner account is IHO although I called him with B_T_B account once.

Yeah, this message was for entertainment purposes only.

Carry on.

heh I don't actually think eyephone is graphix.  Eyephone's predictions, while maybe the most bearish on the forum, are actually reasonable.  Graphix was in nutter land.  I think Eyephone is wrong on his predictions but not insane.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: momopi on March 22, 2019, 02:15:43 PM
Some properties, such as small condos in Irvine did experience large drops.  For example:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2215-Apricot-Dr-92618/unit-2215/home/5259697

If you look at the property history, this condo dropped to $200K in 2012.  This one dropped to $189K:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/105-Lemon-Grv-92618/unit-264/home/5479490

I own condos in Oak Park and saw value drop from $440K to $230K from peak to bottom in previous cycle.


Be warned that these condos have high HOA fees.  Even if you buy at market low with a loan it's hard to break-even after all the fees and taxes are added.  My next investment property will most likely be outside of Irvine.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on March 22, 2019, 02:50:34 PM
Let us see how “definitely too high” 29 Bloomdale really is since it just went pending. Again, the West Yale home is a poor comp.

I didn't post the west yale loop condo as a comp to the bloomdale house. One is a attached condo and one is a detached SFR.

I posted the west yale loop condo to echo what USC and others have observed in today's market listing. There are many delusional sellers chasing early 2018 prices. Some sellers realized the market has changed ( like the yale loop condo seller) and accepted the new reality even if that meant taking a 25% haircut off the original asking price.

I still think 29 Bloomdale was priced too high. If I were to make a bet, I would bet that it does not sell for above the lowered listing price. I guess we will find out soon enough. This house would easily fetched 1.2 mil or over had it been listed March 2018 instead.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 22, 2019, 03:01:42 PM
Back on the IHB in 2007-2008 we talked about the armageddon that was going to happen to realestate. 
40% ~ 50% drops!! here it comes.....keep your ammo dry....blah blah.


Yeah people predicted a lot worse than 40% drops.  Eyephone...err, I mean Graphix used to say you'd buy SFRs in Irvine for what, 300k or what after the crash?

My current residenc sold at the peak 650 and I bought for 445 in 2009... so not a small drop.

Are you saying eyephone = Graphix? Also since someone called me if I'm eyephone or meccos12 or BTB/YF. Are we all the same person? That means I'm pretty much running TI? Are you me? One person who is not doubted for having a burner account is IHO although I called him with B_T_B account once.

Yeah, this message was for entertainment purposes only.

Carry on.



I’ve never made an alt account. Why would I?

Panda was the OG, BTB did it so much almost any new account gets accused of being him.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on April 25, 2019, 10:06:14 AM
Posted this in another thread, but this one is more relevant.

Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on April 25, 2019, 10:13:01 AM
Actually I think someone on TI relies on Zillow’s temperature. Lol
(Not me of course) ;)

Posted this in another thread, but this one is more relevant.

Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 25, 2019, 10:24:46 AM
Posted this in another thread, but this one is more relevant.

Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

You know who is also "neutral"/"cool"/"cold"?

Newport Beach:  https://www.zillow.com/newport-beach-ca/home-values/

Pasadena:  https://www.zillow.com/pasadena-ca/home-values/

Arcadia:  https://www.zillow.com/arcadia-ca/home-values/

San Marino:  https://www.zillow.com/san-marino-ca/home-values/

Palo Alto:  https://www.zillow.com/palo-alto-ca/home-values/
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: aquabliss on April 25, 2019, 10:25:51 AM

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)


It's a good thing I have a 5 bedroom house, those are probably immune :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on April 25, 2019, 10:29:25 AM

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)


It's a good thing I have a 5 bedroom house, those are probably immune :)

Wow-Balling out
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 25, 2019, 10:37:47 AM

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)


It's a good thing I have a 5 bedroom house, those are probably immune :)

Only in Irvine... and especially immune if it has a 3CWG (statistically proven by the IHB!).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineband on April 27, 2019, 06:40:52 AM
Great article in Barrons:You Still Might Be Able to Afford a House in San Francisco

Just a little snipit.

“Taking a longer view from before the financial crisis, the biggest housing cost increases between 2000 and 2017 were in Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego (about 80%) while the smallest increases were in Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, and Cincinnati (about 33%). In the middle were Pittsburgh, Denver, and Philadelphia.

These numbers, of course, offer zero information about the change in affordability in each city over these periods, much less the change in relative affordability between cities. That requires comparing changes in average housing costs with changes in average spending power.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis provides estimates of household incomes for every metro area of the U.S. The standard definition of personal income, however, includes the imputed income homeowners “earn” by not having to rent. The biggest source of variation in this “income stream” is the long descent in mortgage interest rates, which is why “rental income of persons” has ballooned from 0.5% of total personal income in 1990 to 1.5% in 2007 to more than 4% since 2014. All this makes the standard income numbers invalid for calculating housing affordability.”

“Going further back to when the data begin in 2001, average employee compensation has increased the most in the Bay Area (65%) and in Seattle (60%), while increasing the least in Detroit (26%), Miami (29%), and Atlanta (32%).”
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 27, 2019, 10:32:31 PM
March was definitely a very interesting month. Sales came in at 196 homes in the month of March 2019 or 40% higher than February 2019 but still 21% lower than March 2018.  The medium price per SF from a year-over-year basis decreased slightly by 0.4%. These March closings were mostly escrows that opened in January and February when the market seemed to have stabilized due to interest rates coming down starting in mid January. The number of active listings at the end of March increased by 68 homes from the end of February as we are entering the Spring selling season. The increase in sales more than counteracted the increase in inventory which caused the # of months of inventory to decrease to 4.17 months in March versus 5.35 months in February. This would put the Irvine market as a neutral market, but when you look at the inventory in the sub $1m market we are in a weak seller's market while the over $1m is in a buyer's market. Also, Days On Market (DOM) from from 36 days in February to 27 days in March.

I continued to see fairly strong demand in the sub $800k market with multiple offer situations and even slight price increases. One of my clients bought a Woodbury condo for $630k and a recent model match condo closed for $642k (listed at $628k). I've also had a few $1m+ buyers come off the side lines in March too and of all things one of them got outbid by a FCB buyer on a Baker Ranch home.  haha  My listings also tell me that homes that are priced right and are turnkey see attract a lot of buyers, the lower the price point the more buyer traffic I'm getting.  New home builders continue to be flexible on pricing and credits, especially on quicker move-in homes. I believe that the new home shadow inventory is having a significant impact on the higher end of the market. There are still a lot of stubborn/dreamer sellers out there, especially in the higher end of the market, who don't understand that the market has adjusted lower.

From an interest rate perspective, interest rates continued to bleed lower in March with a low point hit near the end of March where the 30-year rate touched 3.75% and the 7-year ARM rate hit 2.75%. Rates have blipped up a bit since then but we are still under 3% on the 30-year fixed and around 3% on the 7-ARM. It's fairly clear now that the these lower rates have stabilized the real estate market in general and that along with the stock market grinding to all-time highs and a good job market with little worry of a recession have given more buyers confidence to get back to looking at buying homes. However, that doesn't mean that buyers aren't both cautious and picky because I know my buyers are.

Overall I think the market feels very balanced which is both good for buyers and sellers.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 27, 2019, 10:40:23 PM
And here are a few 10-year charts to put things into perspective for active listings, home sales, median price per SF, and days on market for all the folks that are more visual. ;)

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 29, 2019, 06:49:33 AM
The Closed Sales chart is still looking cyclical to me. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 29, 2019, 07:14:02 AM
The Closed Sales chart is still looking cyclical to me. :)

Uh oh, I think you might have poked the bear. haha   

Btw, I'm curious....would you guys prefer to see 5 year charts or stay with the 10 year charts going forward?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 29, 2019, 07:47:39 AM
10 year is good because it covers the last "real" downturn (although may have to expand out to 11 or 12 years). :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 29, 2019, 11:19:34 PM
10 year is good because it covers the last "real" downturn (although may have to expand out to 11 or 12 years). :)

10 years is as far back as I can capture the data on the graphs and I think it gives a good representation of where things are in comparison during the true buyer's market in 2009-2011.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 16, 2019, 06:44:39 AM
@USC:

Can you post your 10-year charts again?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: nosuchreality on October 16, 2019, 07:38:56 AM
10 year is good because it covers the last "real" downturn (although may have to expand out to 11 or 12 years). :)

10 years is as far back as I can capture the data on the graphs and I think it gives a good representation of where things are in comparison during the true buyer's market in 2009-2011.

I bought right in the middle of that, JIMHO that was not a buyers market.  That was a totally ---ked up market.  There weren't a lot of forced sales or weak hands.  In fact many of the 'weak' hands were short sales, like we bought, that had multiple people involved, one with a quazi interest in the deal not going thru, one with nothing to lose if it goes south and the prinicpal, the bank, who didn't need to recognize the loss and hit to their until it actually sold.

You could offer the full asking price, in cash and be the highest and only viable offer and the deal wouldn't happen.

Or you hit the other extreme, the home has 22 offers as soon as it was put on the market goes taking back ups, in escrow for month, and back, repeat.

That's not a buyers market.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 16, 2019, 09:20:08 AM
10 year is good because it covers the last "real" downturn (although may have to expand out to 11 or 12 years). :)

10 years is as far back as I can capture the data on the graphs and I think it gives a good representation of where things are in comparison during the true buyer's market in 2009-2011.

I bought right in the middle of that, JIMHO that was not a buyers market.  That was a totally ---ked up market.  There weren't a lot of forced sales or weak hands.  In fact many of the 'weak' hands were short sales, like we bought, that had multiple people involved, one with a quazi interest in the deal not going thru, one with nothing to lose if it goes south and the prinicpal, the bank, who didn't need to recognize the loss and hit to their until it actually sold.

You could offer the full asking price, in cash and be the highest and only viable offer and the deal wouldn't happen.

Or you hit the other extreme, the home has 22 offers as soon as it was put on the market goes taking back ups, in escrow for month, and back, repeat.

That's not a buyers market.

You put that in a perfect context. When chaos set-in, one would think that a reasonable offer would get banks and buyers to collaborate and close the deal, but it did not happen that way. I remember clearly, like you describes here. One of my neighbor whom was at that time in 2008 stop making payment and the house went on foreclosed. It was back-and-forth, listed and de-listed, backup and relisted. This went on for almost 3 years until it sold in mid 2013. Imagine from 2008 to 2013. Yeah it was that long, and several buyers and agents showed up and not able to buy. That market then was truly bizzare. For those waiting to jump in and timing the market to buy at the discount, get ready for an emotional roller coaster like you never have before.

And in this market I believe we will never ever get to that level. The FED and the Banking Cartel are much better prepare this time to stop the mania from happening. The FED already in so many words started to implement QE, Quazi Easing, as we know it. They will never tell the whole truth about the actions, but the fact that the buy back policies, is back at the table tell me that this market will continue to float upward.

Yes, delaying it and continue to have a functional market is preferable compare to the hell-freeze over. And given the election year, this is going to be a long long wait. If I was on a sideline and ready to act, now I think would be a prefer time.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 16, 2019, 07:30:30 PM
@USC:

Can you post your 10-year charts again?

Here are both the median and average price per SF for Irvine for the past 10 years.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 16, 2019, 10:49:51 PM
Can you give us just a median or average sold price?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 16, 2019, 11:09:51 PM
Can you give us just a median or average sold price?

The first one is median home prices and the second one is average home prices.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 17, 2019, 07:48:52 AM
Thanks USC!!

Is there an Excel/csv download of the average/median price by month? It's hard to data churn off the chart.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 18, 2019, 12:32:11 AM
Thanks USC!!

Is there an Excel/csv download of the average/median price by month? It's hard to data churn off the chart.

Here's the Excel file for both...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 21, 2019, 11:49:00 AM
I have a question, is median price/sft actually better than just looking at median price?

I think it is because it takes into account home size but at the same time, there are other factors that it doesn't cover like room, bathroom count, lot size etc (which median price doesn't cover either).

I remember on the old IHB forums, $/sft was the number everyone was concentrating on.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: jamesKirk on October 21, 2019, 01:46:19 PM
I have a question, is median price/sft actually better than just looking at median price?

I think it is because it takes into account home size but at the same time, there are other factors that it doesn't cover like room, bathroom count, lot size etc (which median price doesn't cover either).

I remember on the old IHB forums, $/sft was the number everyone was concentrating on.

Yeah this was a hard thing for us to measure since we wanted specific things since we were in the attached condo price range. End unit, two stories, attached 2 car garage. These things are hard to value so you have to find specific examples of sales in the area, which isn’t easy if there only exists a few of that plan in each community since less for sale or sold recently.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on October 21, 2019, 04:37:58 PM
I have a question, is median price/sft actually better than just looking at median price?

I think it is because it takes into account home size but at the same time, there are other factors that it doesn't cover like room, bathroom count, lot size etc (which median price doesn't cover either).

I remember on the old IHB forums, $/sft was the number everyone was concentrating on.

Yeah this was a hard thing for us to measure since we wanted specific things since we were in the attached condo price range. End unit, two stories, attached 2 car garage. These things are hard to value so you have to find specific examples of sales in the area, which isn’t easy if there only exists a few of that plan in each community since less for sale or sold recently.

So did you go for Delano?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 13, 2020, 10:15:55 PM
It's been a while since I posted data and to say that 2019 was an interesting year with Irvine real estate would be an understatement so I wanted to provide my interpretation of what occurred. In terms of sales and prices, the Irvine market was essentially flat from a year over year perspective. That being said, there was a lot of action throughout the year. The year started off weak as there was an overhang of resale and unsold new home inventory that pushed prices down in the second half of 2018. Then the 30-year fixed rate started dropping at the beginning of 2019 after it kissed 5% in Nov 2018 and we ended up the year with the 30 year fixed rate around 3.50% (the low was around 3.25% in Sept 2019). Inventory levels hit a high of 1,049 homes on the market in July 2019 which was an increase of over 30% YOY. The market was a weak buyer's market overall in 1Q 2019 as we had 5+ months of inventory on the market with 20% YOY sales declines. While resale inventory kept rising into the summer, sales volumes were up slightly YOY which caused the months of resale inventory to decline to about 4 months worth of supply on the market. We saw a significant increase in sales volume and drop in resale inventory YOY in the last 2 months of the year. The median Irvine home price ended up essentially flat in 2019 around the mid $470/sf range. 

As rates started to drop to 4% in Jan/Feb, my lower end buyers came off the sidelines first (this group is more sensitive to their total monthly payment) and I started encountering multiple counter offer situations. Then in the Spring as rates kept dipping towards 3.50%, my middle market and high end buyers started becoming active in the market. These middle market and high end buyers had a lot more inventory to pick from, including standing inventory new homes, so we would make offers under list to determine how motivated sellers were. That being said, middle and higher end homes that were priced price, showed well, and/or had unique features such as larger or view lots sold fairly quickly. From the new home side, builders bumped up their broker co-op in late 2018/early 2019 to better incentivize agents to bring their buyers in to their sales offices.  They were also willing to negotiate both on price and credits for unsold homes and the closer the home was to being completed the more negotiable they were. Irvine Pacific even responded by building 2 smaller, lower priced models at Terra and Ravello in Orchard Hills due to the slow down.

As I mentioned, interest rates kept dropping from late 2018 when rates touched 5% all the way down to 3.25% in the fall of 2019 (mainly due to the China tariff worries). The Fed ended up cutting rates 3 times for a total of 0.75% and stopped quantitative tightening (some would argue that they restarted a form of quantitative easing to help the repo market out in 4Q). We ended the year with the 30-year rate around 3.50% as we got word of a phase 1 tariff agreement between China and the US. The market rallied significant in 4Q which might have been the factors why more buyers came into the market in the last quarter of the year and into 2020.

Many of my listings and purchases in the second half of 2019 were move-up buyers who sold their small homes and bought larger homes and that is continuing into 2020. I also have a few job relocation (significant compensation increases) related transactions on the buy and sell side, including helping a few buyers purchase homes in San Diego and Santa Cruz. That was a function of the continued strong job market that we are seeing and besides low rates is a key driver in the increased buyer activity. In my opinion, the market continues to be trifurcated with the lower end of the market (sub $800k) being strong, the middle market ($800k-$1.2ish) being neutral, and the higher end ($1.3m+) being soft based upon the sales volume and inventory levels. 

So what will 2020 bring? Tough to say, we have a presidential election coming up and phase 2 China trade talks will begin along with potential turmoil in the Middle East. In 2016, I noticed that some buyers pulled back in the summer/fall as there was uncertainty of who would be elected as president and how the market would react. We may have the same thing happen this year if there is a similar type of uncertainty this time. But if the market gets what it wants, we can expect a pick up in demand (assuming the job market stays strong, China tariffs don't flare up again, and rates stay in the 3s) after the election in late 2020/early 2021. I feel that 2020 will effectively be flat with 2019 from both a sales and price perspective and the market will remain balanced/neutral for the most part. As always, inventory levels will provide a hint of where the market might be heading.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 13, 2020, 10:24:36 PM
Below are 10-year charts for active listings, home sales, median price per SF, and days on market from MLS.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 14, 2020, 01:02:28 PM
So early-mid 2018 was the worst time to buy both in terms of the price and the rates.. unless the market picks up and the price goes up in a future.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 14, 2020, 01:18:57 PM
So early-mid 2018 was the worst time to buy both in terms of the price and the rates.. unless the market picks up and the price goes up in a future.

Yes, that was the last price peak and rates around the mid 4% range. Since then, rates have come down a lot (about 1%) and prices came down less so (slightly down on the lower end and down more on the higher end).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 20, 2020, 08:18:58 AM
Oh the pain!!!!

We were so close to buying 2010-2012, just couldn't find anything good in the price range we wanted to pay. Hindsight says we should have bought anyways but we hate moving (although it's good for purging away junk).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 21, 2020, 12:38:11 PM
Oh the pain!!!!

We were so close to buying 2010-2012, just couldn't find anything good in the price range we wanted to pay. Hindsight says we should have bought anyways but we hate moving (although it's good for purging away junk).

So when did you buy? 2013?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Panda on January 21, 2020, 12:51:57 PM
(https://www.dropbox.com/s/46m0zlqmnhgvr3x/unemployment_la.jpg?raw=1)

Trojan, it seems like the average and median Irvine Home prices are clearly now shifting. The unemployment in OC is also at its all time and low and this looks like it is going to turn as well. Unemployment can't be a negative and never travel in a horizontal line, but more like a wave pattern.

Can you give us just a median or average sold price?

The first one is median home prices and the second one is average home prices.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: B2FiNiTY on January 22, 2020, 12:06:04 AM
I agree with your insight and share the same feelings. Thanks for sharing Martin.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Panda on January 22, 2020, 09:04:10 AM
Trojan,

Is 2019 the first year we are seeing a negative appreciation number in the Irvine Housing Market since 2011?

I am surprised by the Irvine appreciation numbers as it looks quite low? Are you sure this is correct? I automatically assumed that Irvine's appreciation number would be higher than the LA housing index appreciation. Just surprised seeing this. No one can accurately predict exactly how much the Irvine housing market will correct unless they can accurately predict the coming peak of the unemployment rate in Orange County. If the OC unemployment rate were to rise from its current 2.4% to 7%, I can confidently say that we will see at least a 15% correction from now until the next bottom of the cycle. If I were a buyer in the Irvine market I would wait for the deal to come to me. Time is on your side and there is no need to hurry. On a $900,000 Irvine SFR purchased in 2020 could be a $135,000 equity loss in the next 24-48 months.

Irvine
2019   -1.0% appreciation
2018    4.8% appreciation
2017    5.8% appreciation
2016    2.4% appreciation
2015    5.8% appreciation
2014    1.8% appreication

Los Angeles
2019    2.1% appreciation
2018    2.9% appreciation
2017    6.5% appreciation
2016    4.5% appreciation
2015    5.8% appreciation
2014    5.2% appreciation
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 22, 2020, 10:38:01 AM
Panda, IHO will yell at you now since you told buyers to WAIT :D...unless his view changed..
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Panda on January 22, 2020, 10:44:55 AM
Mety,
That's okay. He's been yelling at me ever since I activated my Panda account on Irvine Housing Blog in 2008.  8)

Panda, IHO will yell at you now since you told buyers to WAIT :D...unless his view changed..
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 27, 2020, 09:18:30 AM
Mety,
That's okay. He's been yelling at me ever since I activated my Panda account on Irvine Housing Blog in 2008.  8)

Panda, IHO will yell at you now since you told buyers to WAIT :D...unless his view changed..

It's okay... if you shoot a million times, you will make the basket at least once no matter how bad your shot is.

Waiting isn't a forecasting decision, it's a personal one. No matter where the market is going, waiting depends on your affordability, stability and family situation.

If you think waiting the last 2 years for single percentage points drops in prices... that's your call.

But as posters who did buy when prices were "higher", they were tired of waiting even if it did cost more than renting.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 09, 2020, 07:56:25 PM
January 2020 ended up being a solid month for both sales and prices in Irvine. There were 200 homes sold in Jan 2020 vs 121 homes sold in Jan 2019 or a 65% YOY increase while the average price per SF rose to $479/sf in Jan 2020 from $473/sf in Dec 2019 and from $466/sf in Jan 2019. The number of homes on the market also dropped approx. 23% from 736 in Jan 2019 to 569 in Jan 2020 (barely up from 553 in Dec 2019). This caused the 3-month average of inventory on the market to drop below 3 months worth of inventory resulting in a seller's market.

The lower end of the market (sub $800k) has been selling very well, including many homes selling for above asking price in a week or so. Homes in the middle of the market ($800k to $1.2ish) that show well and are priced right are also selling quickly as the market has a lot of move-up buyers in this market. The high end of the market still has a lot of resale inventory as well has an overhang of "quick move-in" new homes from builders. Buyers in this market are being very selective and patient because they know time is on their side. That being said, I have seen that sales at the new home offices that I've visited in Jan have seen sales pick up since the new year (confirmed by the sales people that I spoke to). 

Interest rates continued their decline in January as we dealt with both Middle East tensions with Iran and then news of the corona virus came out. The year started with the 30-year rate around 3.50% and rates got as low as 3.25% in the middle of the month and have ticked up a bit as the Middle East tensions have calmed down and the stock market recovered from the virus scares. I believe that rates will get to around 3% sometime this year as we will continue to deal with some other market heartburn. These low rates will provide support to the housing market unless we start seeing the job market weakening. So we look to have started the year in good shape.

From my standpoint, my upcoming listings are mainly move-up and job relocating clients. I've already had several referrals from clients as well as buyers who I have met at open houses in 2019 who contacted me to start their home search in January. When I asked them what prompted them to begin actively looking to buy, they responded that it was a need for a larger home and because rates were so low. There are a few banks out there out there that also are offering a 10% down purchase loan program without mortgage insurance which is helping many of these buyers.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 09, 2020, 08:05:46 PM
Below are 5-year charts for active listings, home sales, average price per SF, and days on market from MLS.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: OCLuvr on February 09, 2020, 09:18:03 PM
Thanks Martin. Which bank is offering 10% down with no PMI?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 09, 2020, 09:32:25 PM
Thanks Martin. Which bank is offering 10% down with no PMI?

Check your PM.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Dodgerinoc on February 10, 2020, 01:15:04 AM
Hey guys. I’m completely new to this forum. But I’m not from Irvine but am looking to move here and buy a home here (first time buyer btw). I was wondering if you guys could give me some advice on when would be a good time to buy? A friend of mine told me to wait until the end of the year and even into next year. I know no one here can see the future but I’d appreciate any advice you guys have. Thanks. And please bear with me this is also my very first post. Thanks guys
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 10, 2020, 08:17:17 AM
Hey guys. I’m completely new to this forum. But I’m not from Irvine but am looking to move here and buy a home here (first time buyer btw). I was wondering if you guys could give me some advice on when would be a good time to buy? A friend of mine told me to wait until the end of the year and even into next year. I know no one here can see the future but I’d appreciate any advice you guys have. Thanks. And please bear with me this is also my very first post. Thanks guys

Welcome to TI, there's a lot of great information on here for you to help you research more on your home purchase. I've predicted that this year will probably be flat but I think we might get a soft patch in the middle of the year as we head into the election as some buyers may pull back to wait and see who will be elected (the same thing happened in 2016).  After the 2016 election, both the stock market and the housing market increased well into 2018.  I would recommend that you start going around some open houses to check out floor plans and neighbors that you may be interested in to start narrowing down the type of home/s and location/s that you'll be most interested in buying. As you get closer to purchasing a home, start working with a lender to find out what your buying power is.  That being said, I would only buy if you plan on owning the property for at least 5+ years as no one knows where the market will go but beyond that it's safe to assume that prices will be higher than they are today.  If you would like any other input on the market or copies of floor plans that have sold, feel free to email or PM me. 

Btw, are you a Dodgers fan? 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gld2 on February 10, 2020, 11:14:29 AM
Which bank is offering 10% down with no PMI?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 10, 2020, 12:18:34 PM
Which bank is offering 10% down with no PMI?

US Bank...it's for loan amounts up to $1m for primary residence purchases. I can PM you my US Bank contact if you would like.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: firsttimehomebuyer on February 10, 2020, 12:47:23 PM
Which bank is offering 10% down with no PMI?

US Bank...it's for loan amounts up to $1m for primary residence purchases. I can PM you my US Bank contact if you would like.

thanks for the info. is it for only new homes or resale homes also ?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on February 10, 2020, 02:55:04 PM
@DodgerinOC - Welcome on-board.

Although I can't stand the realtor phrase "it's always a good time to buy".... sometimes it is. If you're looking for a solid neighborhood, good schools, and an easier commute, price and ROI aren't really major issue, right? Yes, everyone wants to see some return on capital, but by waiting for the right ROI you may miss the right property. If you've got ROI as a trigger point to buy, rest assured there are hundreds of other buyers at that same point in the purchase process. Should the absolute perfect home come up at a low price, will your bid be the winning one? Not always when dozens of other buyers leap in at the same time. 

If a solid 85-90 percent of your "must have's" can be found in a property the time to buy is now. I subscribe to the "Ecclesiastes 11:4" view of home buying: To paraphrase "If you wait for perfect conditions, you will never get anything done."

Still not sure about leaping in? At minimum getting a rental home in Irvine may be a wise first step. Sometimes planned communities are not for everyone, even though they might seem like it at the time. A sense of place helps narrow down where exactly you might want to convert cash into equity. If you rent for a year, you can still buy 6-8 months into your lease. In many ways it's nice to have a few months between properties, giving enough time for you to patch, upgrade, and improve your new home while still renting. Ask anyone who bought then remodeled while still living in the home. (blegh is an oft heard descriptor from those who stay in their home during a big fix up)

Engaging a solid Realtor is important. Getting your financing squared away is another. So many purchases collapse not because of the property, but because the strength of the Realtor and ability to get financing were put into play well after deposit money has been laid out. Don't be that buyer.

It's for all intents and purposes a giant leap of faith to make an investment of this size. There are an equal number of cheerleaders and naysayers trying to bend your ear on the subject. Read up - as you've done here - and be ready to make an informed decision, The right property will come to you within that period of preparation. Good luck with your home finding!

My .02c
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 10, 2020, 03:15:39 PM
Hey guys. I’m completely new to this forum. But I’m not from Irvine but am looking to move here and buy a home here (first time buyer btw). I was wondering if you guys could give me some advice on when would be a good time to buy? A friend of mine told me to wait until the end of the year and even into next year. I know no one here can see the future but I’d appreciate any advice you guys have. Thanks. And please bear with me this is also my very first post. Thanks guys

TalkIrvine's very own genius member, eyephone suggests you wait along with financial experts, Liar Loan and Panda. But also at the same time, Irvine's trustful resident, irvinehomewowner says you should buy if you're going to stay a long time there (more than 5-10 years) and so does Irvine's expert realtor USCTrojanCPA say the same. I would suggest if you're going to buy here in OC, you should definitely buy in Irvine. If you want to rent a year or so, that would also be a very nice experience of how you like this city.

I suggest you buy/rent in newer areas like Eastwood, Orchard Hills, Stonegate, Portola Springs, etc. Please note though, those newer areas have Mello-Roos taxes which your realtor should explain to you about. If you don't want to deal with those, there are villages like Northwood, Westpark, and University Park. Woodbury, Northpark, and Quail Hill are also somewhat new, not too old, but floor plans here are not as modern. The villages themselves are very nice though. If you want to explore original Irvine, Woodbridge and Turtle Rock are the places to be. They're built in 70s though so you might have to deal with some maintenance of the home. If you hate HOAs and Mello-Roos or that Irvine feel, El Camino Real is for real. If you're into super trendy stuff, check out Great Park. There are like 7 parks villages they're still building out. There are also some hazardous history about this city which your realtor also should warn you about if you ask. If they don't know what you're talking about when you ask, find another realtor.

If you're super rich, look no further than Shady Canyon, Hidden Canyon, or Turtle Ridge. You'll be satisfied.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 10, 2020, 05:24:00 PM
Which bank is offering 10% down with no PMI?

US Bank...it's for loan amounts up to $1m for primary residence purchases. I can PM you my US Bank contact if you would like.

thanks for the info. is it for only new homes or resale homes also ?

It's for both new and resale homes, primary residences only.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: gld2 on February 11, 2020, 09:40:13 AM
Thank you.  Can you please PM me the contact info?

Which bank is offering 10% down with no PMI?

US Bank...it's for loan amounts up to $1m for primary residence purchases. I can PM you my US Bank contact if you would like.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 12, 2020, 09:40:57 AM
Is 10% down with no PMI a good thing? I thought banks were pretty conservative now days to prevent events like the last crash?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 12, 2020, 09:47:01 AM
Is 10% down with no PMI a good thing? I thought banks were pretty conservative now days to prevent events like the last crash?

Probably more stringent underwriting/qualification.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on February 12, 2020, 09:52:15 AM
Is 10% down with no PMI a good thing? I thought banks were pretty conservative now days to prevent events like the last crash?

The last crash was the 0 down, false income aka mortgage fraud, over buying, low interest rates for too long (this might happen now idk)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on February 12, 2020, 09:53:53 AM
The sketchy/questionable mortgage back securities back in the day, market over hyped.
(that’s what happened last crash)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 12, 2020, 10:04:30 AM
Yeah, so now they're offering 10% down and they might slowly decrease that required amount to eventually 0 down? Who knows? While I think it's a good opportunity for some, it might also be a possibility that could start to get shaky.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on February 12, 2020, 10:07:54 AM
I already mentioned it before. What did Greenspan say about low interest rates after the last housing crisis?
(I know the answer)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on February 12, 2020, 10:11:26 AM
Delete
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 12, 2020, 08:43:46 PM
Thank you.  Can you please PM me the contact info?

Which bank is offering 10% down with no PMI?

US Bank...it's for loan amounts up to $1m for primary residence purchases. I can PM you my US Bank contact if you would like.

PM sent.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 12, 2020, 08:45:25 PM
Is 10% down with no PMI a good thing? I thought banks were pretty conservative now days to prevent events like the last crash?

It depends on the buyer's situation.  For example, I have buyer who has a DTI below 30% at purchase price of $1m but does not have 20% to put down so that's a great option for them.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 12, 2020, 08:46:42 PM
Is 10% down with no PMI a good thing? I thought banks were pretty conservative now days to prevent events like the last crash?

Probably more stringent underwriting/qualification.

That is correct, there's a hard cap on the DTI max % (no exceptions), 740+ FICO only, max loan amount of $1m, and 12 months of reserves (401k/IRAs are counted though).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 12, 2020, 08:50:33 PM
Yeah, so now they're offering 10% down and they might slowly decrease that required amount to eventually 0 down? Who knows? While I think it's a good opportunity for some, it might also be a possibility that could start to get shaky.

There are no more "signature only" loans, all loans are fully underwritten including sourcing ALL deposits (even $1) and search for unrecorded debts by reviewing all payments going out from your bank/brokerage account statements.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on February 13, 2020, 09:02:26 AM
Yeah, so now they're offering 10% down and they might slowly decrease that required amount to eventually 0 down? Who knows? While I think it's a good opportunity for some, it might also be a possibility that could start to get shaky.

When you see the 0 down loans come back again head for the hills. (Sa sa sell or don’t buy don’t buy)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 13, 2020, 03:57:47 PM
Right. We don't have "signature only" loans or 0 down thing as of now. But it could possibly lead to that road. I hope it doesn't happen that way, but you never know. Seems like better and better options are popping up always.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on February 13, 2020, 04:36:01 PM
To clarify, there is no such thing as a "no-PMI" loan. These are "LPMI" / "Lender Paid" PMI loans - mortgages that have a PMI contract with the cost built into the rate. It's tax effective at lower loan amounts, but perhaps not so much given the 750k threshold for deductible interest. I defer this piece to USC to calculate the dollar benefit from a taxation perspective. That kind of knowledge is significantly above my pay grade.

General rates for 20 percent down might be 3.5 (example only) with 85% being 3.625, and 90% being 3.750-3.875. Each higher rate tier is due to the higher cost of that blanket PMI contract.  I recall Wells Fargo had an 89.99 LPMI option but haven't heard any updates about that product for some time. Remember that LPMI is a misnomer. Since the rate is higher, it's borrower paid PMI, structured as interest costs.

There are "sign and drive" mortgage loans out there. Unfortunately they aren't at reasonable rates or terms. That's actually a good thing IMHO since publically backed Banks and Credit Unions should not be creating loans with at one time a 75 percent failure rate. Production of these kind of loans were off loaded to private investors where their capital can be risk priced correctly. A Seller Carry Back is an example of a "sign" only type of loan, albeit rare in this day and age. Assuming one of the "mass production providers" of easy qual loans is pricing their mortgages at 6.75 percent a seller might be able to get a 5.75 percent return on the carry back. That's not a bad deal if one is OK with the overall risks involved.

My .02c
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on February 13, 2020, 04:37:41 PM
Yeah, so now they're offering 10% down and they might slowly decrease that required amount to eventually 0 down? Who knows? While I think it's a good opportunity for some, it might also be a possibility that could start to get shaky.

There are no more "signature only" loans, all loans are fully underwritten including sourcing ALL deposits (even $1) and search for unrecorded debts by reviewing all payments going out from your bank/brokerage account statements.

Yup. In the midst of an (unplanned) refi and didn’t season the accounts 60 days so I’m in the midst of “explain this deposit” emails. Not fun.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvinehomeseeker on February 13, 2020, 05:27:14 PM
With Cashcall and owning Refinances, I didn't have to explain deposits.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: bones on February 13, 2020, 07:12:53 PM
With Cashcall and owning Refinances, I didn't have to explain deposits.

Does Cashcall or Owning do ARM loans?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 14, 2020, 09:29:44 AM
See? We already are starting to have these "too-easy-to-get" loans.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 14, 2020, 02:03:31 PM
With Cashcall and owning Refinances, I didn't have to explain deposits.

As soon as Cashcall or owning.com start to offer 0 downpayment, you know where we're headed to.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Dodgerinoc on February 18, 2020, 02:04:23 AM
Hey guys. I’m completely new to this forum. But I’m not from Irvine but am looking to move here and buy a home here (first time buyer btw). I was wondering if you guys could give me some advice on when would be a good time to buy? A friend of mine told me to wait until the end of the year and even into next year. I know no one here can see the future but I’d appreciate any advice you guys have. Thanks. And please bear with me this is also my very first post. Thanks guys

Welcome to TI, there's a lot of great information on here for you to help you research more on your home purchase. I've predicted that this year will probably be flat but I think we might get a soft patch in the middle of the year as we head into the election as some buyers may pull back to wait and see who will be elected (the same thing happened in 2016).  After the 2016 election, both the stock market and the housing market increased well into 2018.  I would recommend that you start going around some open houses to check out floor plans and neighbors that you may be interested in to start narrowing down the type of home/s and location/s that you'll be most interested in buying. As you get closer to purchasing a home, start working with a lender to find out what your buying power is.  That being said, I would only buy if you plan on owning the property for at least 5+ years as no one knows where the market will go but beyond that it's safe to assume that prices will be higher than they are today.  If you would like any other input on the market or copies of floor plans that have sold, feel free to email or PM me. 

Btw, are you a Dodgers fan?

First off thanks for the input. I appreciate it. And yes I’m a life long Dodgers fan.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Dodgerinoc on February 18, 2020, 02:21:42 AM
@DodgerinOC - Welcome on-board.

Although I can't stand the realtor phrase "it's always a good time to buy".... sometimes it is. If you're looking for a solid neighborhood, good schools, and an easier commute, price and ROI aren't really major issue, right? Yes, everyone wants to see some return on capital, but by waiting for the right ROI you may miss the right property. If you've got ROI as a trigger point to buy, rest assured there are hundreds of other buyers at that same point in the purchase process. Should the absolute perfect home come up at a low price, will your bid be the winning one? Not always when dozens of other buyers leap in at the same time. 

If a solid 85-90 percent of your "must have's" can be found in a property the time to buy is now. I subscribe to the "Ecclesiastes 11:4" view of home buying: To paraphrase "If you wait for perfect conditions, you will never get anything done."

Still not sure about leaping in? At minimum getting a rental home in Irvine may be a wise first step. Sometimes planned communities are not for everyone, even though they might seem like it at the time. A sense of place helps narrow down where exactly you might want to convert cash into equity. If you rent for a year, you can still buy 6-8 months into your lease. In many ways it's nice to have a few months between properties, giving enough time for you to patch, upgrade, and improve your new home while still renting. Ask anyone who bought then remodeled while still living in the home. (blegh is an oft heard descriptor from those who stay in their home during a big fix up)

Engaging a solid Realtor is important. Getting your financing squared away is another. So many purchases collapse not because of the property, but because the strength of the Realtor and ability to get financing were put into play well after deposit money has been laid out. Don't be that buyer.

It's for all intents and purposes a giant leap of faith to make an investment of this size. There are an equal number of cheerleaders and naysayers trying to bend your ear on the subject. Read up - as you've done here - and be ready to make an informed decision, The right property will come to you within that period of preparation. Good luck with your home finding!

My .02c

Thanks I appreciate  the help. I do have some neighborhoods that I prefer but am looking and open to just about anywhere in Irvine. I appreciate this forum for all the great information available here and will definitely read up and try to get as much information anywhere I can.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Dodgerinoc on February 18, 2020, 02:31:30 AM
Hey guys. I’m completely new to this forum. But I’m not from Irvine but am looking to move here and buy a home here (first time buyer btw). I was wondering if you guys could give me some advice on when would be a good time to buy? A friend of mine told me to wait until the end of the year and even into next year. I know no one here can see the future but I’d appreciate any advice you guys have. Thanks. And please bear with me this is also my very first post. Thanks guys

TalkIrvine's very own genius member, eyephone suggests you wait along with financial experts, Liar Loan and Panda. But also at the same time, Irvine's trustful resident, irvinehomewowner says you should buy if you're going to stay a long time there (more than 5-10 years) and so does Irvine's expert realtor USCTrojanCPA say the same. I would suggest if you're going to buy here in OC, you should definitely buy in Irvine. If you want to rent a year or so, that would also be a very nice experience of how you like this city.

I suggest you buy/rent in newer areas like Eastwood, Orchard Hills, Stonegate, Portola Springs, etc. Please note though, those newer areas have Mello-Roos taxes which your realtor should explain to you about. If you don't want to deal with those, there are villages like Northwood, Westpark, and University Park. Woodbury, Northpark, and Quail Hill are also somewhat new, not too old, but floor plans here are not as modern. The villages themselves are very nice though. If you want to explore original Irvine, Woodbridge and Turtle Rock are the places to be. They're built in 70s though so you might have to deal with some maintenance of the home. If you hate HOAs and Mello-Roos or that Irvine feel, El Camino Real is for real. If you're into super trendy stuff, check out Great Park. There are like 7 parks villages they're still building out. There are also some hazardous history about this city which your realtor also should warn you about if you ask. If they don't know what you're talking about when you ask, find another realtor.

If you're super rich, look no further than Shady Canyon, Hidden Canyon, or Turtle Ridge. You'll be satisfied.

Thanks for the reply. I do have certain areas which I prefer.  I personally am trying to stay away from the places with higher hoa’s and mella rooses. Also thanks to the forum I did read up on the landfill and the communities adjacent to it.  I think my realtor is awesome. She’s very well informed and very patient with me.  My realtor did tell me about the landfill when I was looking at places in portola springs. That’s actually what brought me to this forum, while searching for more information about it I stumbled across the forum and glad I did.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 18, 2020, 07:23:20 AM
Just look out for fake news and unexplained data.

:)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on February 18, 2020, 08:15:52 AM
No hoax.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 18, 2020, 11:10:53 AM
Hey guys. I’m completely new to this forum. But I’m not from Irvine but am looking to move here and buy a home here (first time buyer btw). I was wondering if you guys could give me some advice on when would be a good time to buy? A friend of mine told me to wait until the end of the year and even into next year. I know no one here can see the future but I’d appreciate any advice you guys have. Thanks. And please bear with me this is also my very first post. Thanks guys

TalkIrvine's very own genius member, eyephone suggests you wait along with financial experts, Liar Loan and Panda. But also at the same time, Irvine's trustful resident, irvinehomewowner says you should buy if you're going to stay a long time there (more than 5-10 years) and so does Irvine's expert realtor USCTrojanCPA say the same. I would suggest if you're going to buy here in OC, you should definitely buy in Irvine. If you want to rent a year or so, that would also be a very nice experience of how you like this city.

I suggest you buy/rent in newer areas like Eastwood, Orchard Hills, Stonegate, Portola Springs, etc. Please note though, those newer areas have Mello-Roos taxes which your realtor should explain to you about. If you don't want to deal with those, there are villages like Northwood, Westpark, and University Park. Woodbury, Northpark, and Quail Hill are also somewhat new, not too old, but floor plans here are not as modern. The villages themselves are very nice though. If you want to explore original Irvine, Woodbridge and Turtle Rock are the places to be. They're built in 70s though so you might have to deal with some maintenance of the home. If you hate HOAs and Mello-Roos or that Irvine feel, El Camino Real is for real. If you're into super trendy stuff, check out Great Park. There are like 7 parks villages they're still building out. There are also some hazardous history about this city which your realtor also should warn you about if you ask. If they don't know what you're talking about when you ask, find another realtor.

If you're super rich, look no further than Shady Canyon, Hidden Canyon, or Turtle Ridge. You'll be satisfied.

Thanks for the reply. I do have certain areas which I prefer.  I personally am trying to stay away from the places with higher hoa’s and mella rooses. Also thanks to the forum I did read up on the landfill and the communities adjacent to it.  I think my realtor is awesome. She’s very well informed and very patient with me.  My realtor did tell me about the landfill when I was looking at places in portola springs. That’s actually what brought me to this forum, while searching for more information about it I stumbled across the forum and glad I did.

No problem. Just sharing my thoughts and opinions with some facts which others might disagree with.

For newer homes, anywhere from $100 to $350 are usual HOA fees. Detached homes will carry less fees but you'll have to maintain the exterior paint, roof, rain gutters, etc. by yourself whenever the HOAs enforces you to do so whereas the attached are all covered by them. Mello Roos taxes are usually from $1,700 to $4,500. The cheapest are Cypress Village East, Eastwood Village and Stonegate. Portola Springs has slightly higher, but home prices are usually a little bit lower there. As far as I know, older villages like some Northwood and El Camino homes don't have any HOA nor MR. Westpark SFRs have like $45 HOA with $900 MR which will expire soon. The Great Park villages have higher HOA and MR, but they do offer super nice amenities.

I personally wouldn't worry about the landfill. There are other hazardous stuff you should know about, but Irvine is a good place to buy overall.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on February 19, 2020, 11:58:36 AM
Checking Zillow Preforeclosure / Auction listing for all of Irvine is 66 totals units. This is about less than 1% of all the listing for Irvine. Getting one for a substantial discount required lots of patients and hard work. Banks still control the inventory very rigid.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: peregrine on February 19, 2020, 02:36:15 PM

I personally wouldn't worry about the landfill. There are other hazardous stuff you should know about, but Irvine is a good place to buy overall.

I'm a bit reticent to ask because this seems like a sensitive topic around these parts but what hazardous stuff are you alluding to? We're moving from out of state and, while I've tried to research this from afar, it can be difficult separating fact from fiction. Any guidance from those on the ground would be much appreciated! Thanks in advance.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on February 19, 2020, 02:42:12 PM
check your disclosures for not eating fruit planted in your own back yard.  I don't know how many communites have them, but columbus grove in Tustin is one.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 19, 2020, 02:47:59 PM
Best place you can live is anywhere that has an "IHO view lot".

#throwbackwednesday
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: mads on February 19, 2020, 03:06:05 PM
I'm a bit reticent to ask because this seems like a sensitive topic around these parts but what hazardous stuff are you alluding to? We're moving from out of state and, while I've tried to research this from afar, it can be difficult separating fact from fiction. Any guidance from those on the ground would be much appreciated! Thanks in advance.
Probably referring to the areas with TCE contamination thats going to take a while to clean up-
https://www.irwd.com/construction/tce-el-toro-facts (https://www.irwd.com/construction/tce-el-toro-facts)
https://www.irwd.com/images/pdf/construction/el_toro_remediation_map_2018.pdf (https://www.irwd.com/images/pdf/construction/el_toro_remediation_map_2018.pdf)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on February 19, 2020, 03:23:09 PM
I'm a bit reticent to ask because this seems like a sensitive topic around these parts but what hazardous stuff are you alluding to? We're moving from out of state and, while I've tried to research this from afar, it can be difficult separating fact from fiction. Any guidance from those on the ground would be much appreciated! Thanks in advance.
Probably referring to the areas with TCE contamination thats going to take a while to clean up-
https://www.irwd.com/construction/tce-el-toro-facts (https://www.irwd.com/construction/tce-el-toro-facts)
https://www.irwd.com/images/pdf/construction/el_toro_remediation_map_2018.pdf (https://www.irwd.com/images/pdf/construction/el_toro_remediation_map_2018.pdf)

Yes. The history with Marine Corps Air Station El Toro with toxic chemical waste which resulted Superfund NPL sites. Ground water contamination had to be remediated. I didn't know they now have provided the progress status image. Looks like it got a lot better by 2018. Also Portola High showed contaminated soil when they were building it. So anywhere that used to be Marine base are potential to be hazardous. However, they say those residential areas now are cleaned before they started building new constructions. Hope it helps.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 07, 2020, 09:57:29 PM
February 2020 continued with strong sales and low levels of inventory (see the attached schedule below). There were 207 sales in the month or an increase of approx. 48% (140 homes) from February 2019 and the month ended up with 593 actively listed homes for sale or a 21% decline (749 homes) from the end of February 2019. The average sales prices essentially remained flat at around $477/sf from last month but up about 2% from February 2019. My theory is that the lower priced homes (sub $1m) are moving at a much faster rate which is most likely keeping the average price per SF flat to slightly down month over month. The market continues to have less 3-month average of inventory and remains a seller's market, especially in the lower and middle part of the market. New inventory is coming to market but not quite as much as last year at this time. Even Tustin Ranch has a serious lack of resale inventory up to $1.2m as I've been looking there with a few buyers over the past 2 months.

The lower end of the market (sub $800k) continues to sell very well with many properties going to escrow within 1-2 weeks with multiple offers. The middle of the market ($800k to $1.2m) is a bit slower but homes that are priced somewhat reasonably and that show well also go into escrow very fast. The middle part of the market also has a low level of resale inventory. To give a real world example, both Celeste and Montara had several unsold quicker move-in homes in January but when I visited the sales offices in the past few weeks I discovered that all of those homes were sold. My thought is that the declines in interest rates continue to inspire buyers to get off of the sidelines as rates approach 3% for a 30-year fixed loan. In the past 2-3 weeks, I'd had 5 new buyers contact me to begin the search for a home. I would think that the corona virus would slow things down a bit but I think that was more than countered by interest rates continuing to flat. My open house traffic continues to be strong and many open houses that I've seen with buyers also had many buyers come out. It'll be interesting to see how the next few months play out as there are some reported cases of people being infected with the corona virus in the US.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 07, 2020, 09:58:27 PM
Here are the 5-year charts for active listings, closed sales, average per SF, and Days On Market for February 2020.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Liar Loan on March 09, 2020, 10:32:54 AM
Here are the 5-year charts for active listings, closed sales, average per SF, and Days On Market for February 2020.

What month was the peak average per SF?  And how much have prices come down percentage-wise since then?  Asking for a friend (IHO)...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Panda on March 09, 2020, 11:02:37 AM
How is the overally job market sentiment at this time in the OC? Is the job market still strong?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on March 09, 2020, 11:13:49 AM
Talking to a customer back in OCT, he said he couldn't find enough workers for his warehouse.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 09, 2020, 01:21:24 PM
Here are the 5-year charts for active listings, closed sales, average per SF, and Days On Market for February 2020.

What month was the peak average per SF?  And how much have prices come down percentage-wise since then?  Asking for a friend (IHO)...

On an average price per SF basis, the high was $507/sf in May 2018 vs. $477/sf in Feb 2020.  On a median price per SF basis, the high was $496/sf in May 2018 vs. $469/sf in Feb 2020.  I believe that the higher end homes ($1.5m+) have had the biggest impact on the price per SF declines.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Panda on March 09, 2020, 01:41:38 PM
The leading indicator for the housing correction in the OC will be unemployment numbers. You have to watch this chart very carefully. The key unemployment bench mark from prior are 5,7, & 10%. The unemployment chart will first reverse before we enter into the gray zone. Oil dropped by 25% and 10 year dropped by 29%. This doesn't look like a temporary correction that MoreKaos seems to suggest this is. This sort of reminds me of giving a severe heroin addict more heroin to consume until the heroin addict drops to the floor from overdose.

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/l0xybntsco7no3v/unemployment.jpg?raw=1)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on March 09, 2020, 03:07:21 PM
Does employers cut jobs right after a huge market correction? Likely not right away, it will be some months of excessive build up of inventories before employer shedding work force. The second part is once an employees looses his job, there will be severance and unemployment benefit kick in. Third assume that most recent purchases banks required reserve to be able to acquire homes then he have to burn through that before delinquent of mortgage take affect. Once preforeclosure files, how long will bank push this borrower until house is taken back.

From start to finish it could be a couple of years before a person giving up his house. Could be longer or could be shorter depends on reserve and how much he want he want to throw in the towel.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 09, 2020, 03:37:14 PM
How is the overally job market sentiment at this time in the OC? Is the job market still strong?

The labor market in Orange County is still tight. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 09, 2020, 08:18:52 PM
Does employers cut jobs right after a huge market correction? Likely not right away, it will be some months of excessive build up of inventories before employer shedding work force. The second part is once an employees looses his job, there will be severance and unemployment benefit kick in. Third assume that most recent purchases banks required reserve to be able to acquire homes then he have to burn through that before delinquent of mortgage take affect. Once preforeclosure files, how long will bank push this borrower until house is taken back.

From start to finish it could be a couple of years before a person giving up his house. Could be longer or could be shorter depends on reserve and how much he want he want to throw in the towel.

As well as how much equity the owners have.  If they have over 10% equity, then doing a traditional sale is the way to go.  One of my clients told me a theory that he thinks that sellers may be holding off on putting their homes up for sale on the market as they want a place to hunker down and let the virus blow over. I thought that was an interesting theory.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 28, 2020, 10:31:08 AM
I compiled the March data but because it was so cloudy due to the lock down mid-month I've decided to wait to provide my data and analysis, along with specifics that I've seen and heard about, once the April data comes in next week. It's very interesting to see what is actually happening in the market.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paydawg on April 28, 2020, 02:22:06 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the rental rates the past month?  Have they gone down?   My out-of-state investment property is up for a lease renewal and my property manager is recommending I RAISE my tenant's rate by ~10%.  I'm feeling a bit queezy about raising rates in this environment, but if that's what the rental comps are saying...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 28, 2020, 02:29:09 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the rental rates the past month?  Have they gone down?   My out-of-state investment property is up for a lease renewal and my property manager is recommending I RAISE my tenant's rate by ~10%.  I'm feeling a bit queezy about raising rates in this environment, but if that's what the rental comps are saying...

Depends on the amount of rental properties on the market. Here in Irvine, I rented 3 rental listings within 2-4 weeks at comps to $100 off comps (rental prices ranged from $3,000 to $3,800).  I would recommend that you run rental comps and see how many other comparable rental units are listed for rent in your area.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Dr. CA Real Estate on April 28, 2020, 08:36:41 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the rental rates the past month?  Have they gone down?   My out-of-state investment property is up for a lease renewal and my property manager is recommending I RAISE my tenant's rate by ~10%.  I'm feeling a bit queezy about raising rates in this environment, but if that's what the rental comps are saying...

Is your property manager a descendant of  Hermann von Siemens ??
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvinehomeseeker on May 01, 2020, 06:59:54 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the rental rates the past month?  Have they gone down?   My out-of-state investment property is up for a lease renewal and my property manager is recommending I RAISE my tenant's rate by ~10%.  I'm feeling a bit queezy about raising rates in this environment, but if that's what the rental comps are saying...

Depends on the amount of rental properties on the market. Here in Irvine, I rented 3 rental listings within 2-4 weeks at comps to $100 off comps (rental prices ranged from $3,000 to $3,800).  I would recommend that you run rental comps and see how many other comparable rental units are listed for rent in your area.

A bit to tough to find qualified tenants as ppl are not moving much. I have got some interest after I reduced rental by 200$...
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 12, 2020, 09:24:52 PM
Attached is the data for both March and April 2020, I also included data for the number of homes that closed for $1m and less and what % of the total sales that represented from Jan 2018 through April 2020. I really wanted to wait until I got and analyzed the April 2020 data as the March data was all over the board with the stay-at-home order happening in the middle of March.

Sales in March 2020 were 232 or 18% higher than March 2019 but keep in mind that most all of those escrows were opened in Jan/Feb. The March 2020 median price per SF increased to $484/sf or about 4% from March 2019 to March 2020 but I'd venture to say that it was an outlier month with a greater mix of homes above $1m closing in the month (38% vs. 34% using the 12-month trailing average) and without this blip we would have probably seen the March 2020 median price per SF closer to being flat with March 2019. The real action happened on the inventory side in March. Around the middle of the month we had over 700 listed homes on the market with about 250 homes in escrow as we were entering the Spring selling season. Then the stay-at-home order happened the number of active listings decreased by about 150 homes by the end of the home to 589 (28% lower than at the end of March 2019) which was slightly up from the end of Feb as many sellers pulled their listing off the market (some converted them to rentals). At the same time, I saw the number of homes in escrows fall to around 150 by early April as there were many escrow cancellations (happened to me with my 56 Snowdrop Tree listing as the buyer got furloughed after the stay-at-home order).

Sales in April 2020 were 128 or 46% lower than April 2019 and these figures definitely reflect COVID issues as buyers started pulling back and cancelling escrows. The April 2020 median price per SF was basically flat with April 2020 at $476/sf and more inline with the trend that we've been seeing for the past 6 months. The number of homes in escrow hit a low of around 140 home in the middle of April and as of today (May 12th) that number has increased to 172 homes so activity has definitely picked up and coincides with what I've experienced with a few buyers (more details below). Inventory homes on the market for sale at the end of April 2020 increased to 638 from March 2020 by 8% but decreased by 287 homes or 31% from the end of April 2020 and as of today (May 12th) the number of homes for sale is 609 which explains why there is an increase of homes in escrow. Of the 609 of homes on the market, 315 of them are priced at or under $1m (52% of all inventory) while April 2020 of homes at or under $1m were 84 or 66% which is slightly higher than the March 2019 to Oct 2019 average of 65% (Nov 2019 to Feb 2020 average was 68%).

So what does all this mean?  Well, it's a tale of 2 markets with the sub $1m market holding up fairly well with good buyer demand and a lack of inventory with 3.75 months of inventory (based upon April data) while the $1m+ market continues to bleed lower with a lot of supply and lower buyer demand (6.68 months of inventory). I've had experiences that support that data. Only one of my buyers who is looking for a home over $1m came off the sidelines in the past month to re-start their home search while I've had 2 previous buyers and 3 new buyers in the $600k to $900k price range who have contacted to start actively looking to buy. With 3 of those buyers, I've been outbid on purchase offers in the past few weeks and the other 2 buyers are waiting for a particular floor plan/lot on the new home side. I'm making semi-low ball offers for my $1m+ buyer but there are MANY stubborn sellers, especially foreign cash purchased homes that are sitting vacant (these sellers are in dream land thinking they can get above pre-COVID prices so we just let them sit and move on quickly). Home builders of sub $1m homes seem to be doing fairly well with sales, including Montara and Celeste, as they are selling most all of their currently released lots (probably due to the lack of resale inventory on the market). I went to register a buyer at Rise with Lennar at the end of April and she claimed that they put 18 homes into contract in the past week at their Great Park neighborhoods (most likely their sub $1m homes is my guess). On the listing side, I listed 2 homes (120 Holly Springs in Irvine and 28472 Porsena Way in Lake Forest) after the stay-at-home and sold both with multiple offers above the list price. So I'm seeing good demand and low supply on the lower end of the market, along with low interest rates, which seems to be keeping prices from declining while the inventory in the higher end continues to pile up with stubborn resale sellers and "quick move-in" unsold new homes. Premium higher end homes (larger lot, view lots, and/or highly upgraded) continue to sell at strong prices as well. My sellers who were looking to list in March-May delayed their listings until further notice based upon my discussions with them. See the interesting WSJ articles of how prices are prices during the pandemic:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-home-prices-are-rising-during-the-pandemic-11588671002

We also have seen some action interesting action in the mortgage market in the past 2 months as well. When the stock and bond market stopped functioning poorly we actually saw the 30-year fixed rate blip up as high as 3.75% in the middle of March from about 3.25% in late Feb/early March. Then the Fed stepped and started buying mortgage bonds which brought rates back down to 3.25% by the end of April but this created problems for lenders who hedged their locked rate and created many margin calls for lenders. There was also news that many non-direct lender jumbo loans began to dry up and several lenders started tightening up their lending standards (higher down payment %, higher FICO, etc). As of mid-May, I'm hearing/seeing 30-year jumbo purchase rates at 3% with 0pts and with the Fed continuing to buy mortgage bonds we may very well get into the high 2% range soon.

So where do we go from here?  That is a tough question to answer but one that I get asked by both my buyers and sellers. That answer will be dependent on several variables including...1) inventory levels, 2) timing of good vaccines/treatments, 3) how effective the re-opening will be, 4) will the gov't keep providing stimulus to main street and small businesses, 5) where rates will be, and 6) how many of the lost/furloughed jobs come up. I think with the absolute best case scenario home prices will be flattish but my base case is that we'll probably see price small declines of anywhere between 2-5% in the next 9-12 months as I think rates continue to go lower which will cap price declines, especially in the sub $1m market.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 12, 2020, 09:30:22 PM
Here are the 5-year charts for active listings, closed sales, median per SF, and Days On Market (DOM) through April 2020.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: paydawg on May 12, 2020, 10:13:06 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the rental rates the past month?  Have they gone down?   My out-of-state investment property is up for a lease renewal and my property manager is recommending I RAISE my tenant's rate by ~10%.  I'm feeling a bit queezy about raising rates in this environment, but if that's what the rental comps are saying...

Depends on the amount of rental properties on the market. Here in Irvine, I rented 3 rental listings within 2-4 weeks at comps to $100 off comps (rental prices ranged from $3,000 to $3,800).  I would recommend that you run rental comps and see how many other comparable rental units are listed for rent in your area.

A bit to tough to find qualified tenants as ppl are not moving much. I have got some interest after I reduced rental by 200$...

So I tried raising my rent by $100/month and my tenant freaked out.  I immediately went back to the same rent and they signed the renewal. 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: daedalus on May 13, 2020, 01:52:18 PM
So curious.  Need more info.  What did their freak out look like to you?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: akkord on May 13, 2020, 02:00:13 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the rental rates the past month?  Have they gone down?   My out-of-state investment property is up for a lease renewal and my property manager is recommending I RAISE my tenant's rate by ~10%.  I'm feeling a bit queezy about raising rates in this environment, but if that's what the rental comps are saying...

Depends on the amount of rental properties on the market. Here in Irvine, I rented 3 rental listings within 2-4 weeks at comps to $100 off comps (rental prices ranged from $3,000 to $3,800).  I would recommend that you run rental comps and see how many other comparable rental units are listed for rent in your area.

A bit to tough to find qualified tenants as ppl are not moving much. I have got some interest after I reduced rental by 200$...

So I tried raising my rent by $100/month and my tenant freaked out.  I immediately went back to the same rent and they signed the renewal.

I haven't raised my tenants rent for 4 years now, I see the deposits into my account on the 1st of every month without fail.  I haven't gotten a call since we had the slab leak we had to take of last spring.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 13, 2020, 02:07:48 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the rental rates the past month?  Have they gone down?   My out-of-state investment property is up for a lease renewal and my property manager is recommending I RAISE my tenant's rate by ~10%.  I'm feeling a bit queezy about raising rates in this environment, but if that's what the rental comps are saying...

Depends on the amount of rental properties on the market. Here in Irvine, I rented 3 rental listings within 2-4 weeks at comps to $100 off comps (rental prices ranged from $3,000 to $3,800).  I would recommend that you run rental comps and see how many other comparable rental units are listed for rent in your area.

A bit to tough to find qualified tenants as ppl are not moving much. I have got some interest after I reduced rental by 200$...

So I tried raising my rent by $100/month and my tenant freaked out.  I immediately went back to the same rent and they signed the renewal.

I haven't raised my tenants rent for 4 years now, I see the deposits into my account on the 1st of every month without fail.  I haven't gotten a call since we had the slab leak we had to take of last spring.

As the saying goes, good tenants are worth their weight in gold and not worth trying to extract some nominal rent increase from them.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: DBtoOC on May 13, 2020, 02:31:47 PM
.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Liar Loan on May 14, 2020, 07:59:25 PM
My sellers who were looking to list in March-May delayed their listings until further notice based upon my discussions with them.

I'm curious about this statement.  Since you've had a couple of recent listings with multiple offers above asking, and are expecting a base line scenario of 2-5% price declines in the next 9-12 months, what do you think made them delay their listings? 
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 15, 2020, 01:43:11 PM
My sellers who were looking to list in March-May delayed their listings until further notice based upon my discussions with them.

I'm curious about this statement.  Since you've had a couple of recent listings with multiple offers above asking, and are expecting a base line scenario of 2-5% price declines in the next 9-12 months, what do you think made them delay their listings? 

The 2 most recent listings that got multiple offers were different from the listings that I've delayed with my other sellers. Holly Springs was a job relocation sale and since I got multiple offers on the Copeland listing, I funneled over those back-up buyers to Holly Springs with private viewings for all 3 of them which resulted in multiple offers. Porsena Way was a former rental property where the tenant moved out at the end of Feb and the seller needed to sell before the end of June to capture the tax gain exemption since they moved out at the end of June 2017. So we painted, did some minor upgrades, staged, and cleaned the condo before listing slightly below closed comps to generate a quick sale considering what was going on with the virus which resulted in multiple offers going over even the highest model match closed comp before the virus broke out. The sellers that have delayed their listings don't have an urgency to sell so I'll list their homes when we think it's the right time.

In terms of my prediction of the price drop, that's an average guestimate for the entire Irvine market as a whole. I think the lower end prices will probably be flattish while the higher end will most likely see price drops above 5%. Obviously if we start seeing big layoffs and more inventory begins to flood the market, home prices will fall further. If there are going to be any foreclosures or short sales (mostly people who bought very recently with minimal down payments), those will most likely happen in 2021 as the mortgage forbearance will give those folks some time.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 15, 2020, 10:10:33 PM
Attached is the data for both May 2020. The data on its face looks horrible but remember that some of the data is rearview mirror data and one has to look at what is going on today to get the true sense of where the market is (more on that below).

Sales in May 2020 were 114 or over 59% lower than May 2019 but keep in mind that most all of those escrows were opened in March and April when the market hit the "pause" button on both the buy and sell side. On the surface it looks demand fell off a cliff and it sorta did with many buyers going on the sideline but the number properties in escrow have been increasing every week since early May and as of today (June 15th) there are 285 properties in escrow. What does that mean? That means that sales in June and July will have big increases compared to May.

The May 2020 median price per SF increased slightly to $479/sf from both May 2019 and April 2020. On the inventory front, we are seeing more listings begin to hit the market in early to the middle of May. Inventory levels increased to 752 homes on the market as of the end of May 2020 but that was still down 24% from the level of inventory at the end of May 2019. The lower end of the market continues to have a serious lack of inventory and this is resulting in many properties going into escrow fast with multiple offers, not just in Irvine from what I'm seeing.

What am I seeing in the market?  I've had 6 buyers active their searches in the past month and a few of those buyers are looking at $1m+ homes so I'm seeing more middle market demand pick up. When I ask the buyers who prompted them to come off the sidelines I keep hearing two recurring themes....low interest rates and confidence in their employment. Sellers are also getting more comfortable listing their homes as the stay-at-home orders are getting lifted which resulted in 4 listings for me in the span of 6 weeks (2 already listed) and buyers are coming out. For example, I had 15 showings of my Firwood listing in 4 days (home went into escrow with multiple offers in less than a week). The builder sales offices have also told me that sales and activity have picked up considerably since early May, especially CalPac with its lower priced homes. I've been making several offers on resale homes for my buyers for my lower end buyers and they keep getting outbid with multiple offers and some of them that closed/will close over previous closed comps. I see that prices in the lower end of the market seem to be rising mainly due to the lack of resale inventory and good buyer demand (probably being driven by the all-time low interest rates near 3%).

Watch inventory levels, they will be your tell on where the market is going. The real estate market seems to be very resilient so we may not see any material price declines. Here are a few interesting articles that highlight this fact.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-pandemic-has-changed-what-home-buyers-want-51591987027?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bidding-wars-climb-may-coronavirus-160000327.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuying-demand-25-higher-pandemic-220000017.html
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 15, 2020, 10:11:46 PM
Here are the 5-year charts for active listings, closed sales, median per SF, and Days On Market (DOM) through May 2020.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineband on June 18, 2020, 04:39:15 PM
What qualifies as middle of the market? also is the lower end of your middle range hotter than the upper range?

Attached is the data for both May 2020. The data on its face looks horrible but remember that some of the data is rearview mirror data and one has to look at what is going on today to get the true sense of where the market is (more on that below).

Sales in May 2020 were 114 or over 59% lower than May 2019 but keep in mind that most all of those escrows were opened in March and April when the market hit the "pause" button on both the buy and sell side. On the surface it looks demand fell off a cliff and it sorta did with many buyers going on the sideline but the number properties in escrow have been increasing every week since early May and as of today (June 15th) there are 285 properties in escrow. What does that mean? That means that sales in June and July will have big increases compared to May.

The May 2020 median price per SF increased slightly to $479/sf from both May 2019 and April 2020. On the inventory front, we are seeing more listings begin to hit the market in early to the middle of May. Inventory levels increased to 752 homes on the market as of the end of May 2020 but that was still down 24% from the level of inventory at the end of May 2019. The lower end of the market continues to have a serious lack of inventory and this is resulting in many properties going into escrow fast with multiple offers, not just in Irvine from what I'm seeing.

What am I seeing in the market?  I've had 6 buyers active their searches in the past month and a few of those buyers are looking at $1m+ homes so I'm seeing more middle market demand pick up. When I ask the buyers who prompted them to come off the sidelines I keep hearing two recurring themes....low interest rates and confidence in their employment. Sellers are also getting more comfortable listing their homes as the stay-at-home orders are getting lifted which resulted in 4 listings for me in the span of 6 weeks (2 already listed) and buyers are coming out. For example, I had 15 showings of my Firwood listing in 4 days (home went into escrow with multiple offers in less than a week). The builder sales offices have also told me that sales and activity have picked up considerably since early May, especially CalPac with its lower priced homes. I've been making several offers on resale homes for my buyers for my lower end buyers and they keep getting outbid with multiple offers and some of them that closed/will close over previous closed comps. I see that prices in the lower end of the market seem to be rising mainly due to the lack of resale inventory and good buyer demand (probably being driven by the all-time low interest rates near 3%).

Watch inventory levels, they will be your tell on where the market is going. The real estate market seems to be very resilient so we may not see any material price declines. Here are a few interesting articles that highlight this fact.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-pandemic-has-changed-what-home-buyers-want-51591987027?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bidding-wars-climb-may-coronavirus-160000327.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuying-demand-25-higher-pandemic-220000017.html
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 19, 2020, 09:45:10 PM
What qualifies as middle of the market? also is the lower end of your middle range hotter than the upper range?

Attached is the data for both May 2020. The data on its face looks horrible but remember that some of the data is rearview mirror data and one has to look at what is going on today to get the true sense of where the market is (more on that below).

Sales in May 2020 were 114 or over 59% lower than May 2019 but keep in mind that most all of those escrows were opened in March and April when the market hit the "pause" button on both the buy and sell side. On the surface it looks demand fell off a cliff and it sorta did with many buyers going on the sideline but the number properties in escrow have been increasing every week since early May and as of today (June 15th) there are 285 properties in escrow. What does that mean? That means that sales in June and July will have big increases compared to May.

The May 2020 median price per SF increased slightly to $479/sf from both May 2019 and April 2020. On the inventory front, we are seeing more listings begin to hit the market in early to the middle of May. Inventory levels increased to 752 homes on the market as of the end of May 2020 but that was still down 24% from the level of inventory at the end of May 2019. The lower end of the market continues to have a serious lack of inventory and this is resulting in many properties going into escrow fast with multiple offers, not just in Irvine from what I'm seeing.

What am I seeing in the market?  I've had 6 buyers active their searches in the past month and a few of those buyers are looking at $1m+ homes so I'm seeing more middle market demand pick up. When I ask the buyers who prompted them to come off the sidelines I keep hearing two recurring themes....low interest rates and confidence in their employment. Sellers are also getting more comfortable listing their homes as the stay-at-home orders are getting lifted which resulted in 4 listings for me in the span of 6 weeks (2 already listed) and buyers are coming out. For example, I had 15 showings of my Firwood listing in 4 days (home went into escrow with multiple offers in less than a week). The builder sales offices have also told me that sales and activity have picked up considerably since early May, especially CalPac with its lower priced homes. I've been making several offers on resale homes for my buyers for my lower end buyers and they keep getting outbid with multiple offers and some of them that closed/will close over previous closed comps. I see that prices in the lower end of the market seem to be rising mainly due to the lack of resale inventory and good buyer demand (probably being driven by the all-time low interest rates near 3%).

Watch inventory levels, they will be your tell on where the market is going. The real estate market seems to be very resilient so we may not see any material price declines. Here are a few interesting articles that highlight this fact.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-pandemic-has-changed-what-home-buyers-want-51591987027?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bidding-wars-climb-may-coronavirus-160000327.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuying-demand-25-higher-pandemic-220000017.html

For me, the middle market is $900k to about $1.25m. Yes, the lower end of the middle market is warmer than the higher end of the middle market but single family homes priced around $1.0m to $1.25m seem to be selling well too, especially in places like Woodbury, Stonegate, and Westpark.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 09, 2020, 01:34:08 PM
Attached is the data for both June and July 2020. The data now confirms that the market has strengthened since the end of May as we saw the huge increase in July sales along with the fact that as of today (August 9th) there are now 396 Irvine properties in escrow which is up 111 homes or 39% from June 15th.

Sales in June 2020 were 190 or about 26% lower than June 2019 but that was because the market had began picking up in May and there's a lag between the pick-up and when sales actually close which we saw in July. The median price per SF dipped down to $471 in June from May 2020 and June 2019 but that seems to be a function of almost 170 of the closed sales being properties priced $1m or lower. Inventory at the end of June 2020 was actually down from May 2020 from 752 to 719 and down almost 30% from June 2019. The lower end of the market continued to have a serious lack of inventory.

Sales in July 2020 of 260 homes had a huge increase from June 2020 and was flat with sales in July 2019. The median price per SF rose back up to $479 in July from June 2020 and was up slightly from July 2019 ($477/sf). Inventory levels saw a large increase in July 2020 from June 2020 as sellers became more comfortable in listing their homes in July (probably due to the strengthening market) but these inventory levels were still down over 21% from July 2020.

I've been seeing a lot of strength in the market in the past month especially with properties going into escrow at a faster pace, including more multiple counteroffer situations. Lower rates are bringing more and more buyers into the market but there's a lack of inventory and that's leading to price increases. There seems to be a certain confidence amongst buyers that the worst man be over on the economic front and their jobs are safe. Many buyers are looking to upgrade their homes, including wanting a yard and/or office space to work from home. The pace of sales has also benefited the home builders in Irvine with increased sales at the CalPac and IrvinePac sales offices in Portola Springs and Orchard Hills.

On the interest rate front, rates continue to bleed lower especially in the conforming and jumbo conforming loan products. Buyers can now get 30-year purchase rates around 2.75% if they have strong credit and are putting 20-25% down. Jumbo 30-year rates are a bit higher around 3%. I've had a few buyers that opted to put slightly higher down payments so they can get to the jumbo conforming loan limit because it saved them 1/4% to 3/8% on their interest rate.

It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the summer going into the election plays out. I remember in 2016 the market had slowed down a bit due to the uncertainty related to the elections so it'll be interesting to see if this happens again this year. For now, the market looks to be very firm and good properties go into escrow very fast.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 09, 2020, 01:39:42 PM
Here are the 5-year charts for active listings, closed sales, median per SF, and Days On Market (DOM) through July 2020.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on August 11, 2020, 01:14:17 PM
Back in 2018, my renter said he sold his house & began renting because he was waiting for real estate to crater.  He signed a 1 year lease.
Guess who's still renting my house?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 11, 2020, 03:18:03 PM
Back in 2018, my renter said he sold his house & began renting because he was waiting for real estate to crater.  He signed a 1 year lease.
Guess who's still renting my house?

Irvine real estate would crater?  Uhhhh yeah, no so much. I have a friend who bought an attached condo in 2011 and was looking to upgrade in 2014 but told me that he'd wait until prices came down 10%.  Despite me offering him up first crack at my listings before they hit the market, he refused and said that he'd wait until there was a price decline. Well, he's still waiting for that price decline after prices are up 15-20% since 2014 while his wife is irritated. haha
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Irvinecommuter on August 11, 2020, 03:19:24 PM
The market is insanely hot for sellers....the drop in interest rates in the last two weeks took it from a good to crazy seller's market.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 11, 2020, 03:21:17 PM
The market is insanely hot for sellers....the drop in interest rates in the last two weeks took it from a good to crazy seller's market.

Yup, especially in the sub $800k-$900k price range since there's so little inventory. There were a few small 3-bed homes detached homes in Tustin Ranch that got 10-15 offers each and will close well above their asking prices (so high that buyers will have to come out of pocket to cover appraisal shortfalls).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on August 11, 2020, 04:41:33 PM
Where is Liars Loans and all the downers for SoCal Realestate went to?

I guess they still in the bunkers waiting for the crash to happen, it’s been quiet from them for along time. Oh well, maybe a year or two, then they will comes out from their closets. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Kenkoko on August 11, 2020, 05:22:49 PM
Didn't always agree with Liar Loan, but wasn't part of his argument about relative value?

I remember part of his argument was to invest elsewhere (like stocks) and buy RE during the down cycle.

Even if you go back 2 years to 2018 like Zubs said. S&P 500 index has gone up 18%. NASDAQ index has gone up 37%. Irvine RE hasn't surpassed 2018 peak sqft prices.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Compressed-Village on August 11, 2020, 07:16:30 PM
I used to believe in cycles.


Until the FED pulled out and keeping pulling out all kinds of rabbits from the magic hats. The markets should have crashed and stay crash. Now all assets not only prop-up, it balloons to an unprecedented levels while main street suffer vastly.


So when is this going to pop?

When IF Biden / Harris occupies the WH?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 11, 2020, 08:28:28 PM
Didn't always agree with Liar Loan, but wasn't part of his argument about relative value?

I remember part of his argument was to invest elsewhere (like stocks) and buy RE during the down cycle.

Even if you go back 2 years to 2018 like Zubs said. S&P 500 index has gone up 18%. NASDAQ index has gone up 37%. Irvine RE hasn't surpassed 2018 peak sqft prices.



Prices in the lower end of the market are at or slightly above 2018 peak prices today, the higher end not so much. I would venture to bet that the rental home that he sold earlier is worth more today than what he sold it for because even the IE is seeing bidding wars (I was out with a client looking at homes in Corona and kept running into multiple offer situations...Corona of all places).  haha
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 11, 2020, 08:30:26 PM
I used to believe in cycles.


Until the FED pulled out and keeping pulling out all kinds of rabbits from the magic hats. The markets should have crashed and stay crash. Now all assets not only prop-up, it balloons to an unprecedented levels while main street suffer vastly.


So when is this going to pop?

When IF Biden / Harris occupies the WH?

If we haven't learned during the 2008 financial crisis, we definitely learned not to fight the FED this go around. They can throw more money at downturns than any of us can imagine, it's basically as easy as typing "0"s on a keyboard. Print baby print.  haha
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 11, 2020, 09:22:10 PM
Back in 2018, my renter said he sold his house & began renting because he was waiting for real estate to crater.  He signed a 1 year lease.
Guess who's still renting my house?

Irvine real estate would crater?  Uhhhh yeah, no so much. I have a friend who bought an attached condo in 2011 and was looking to upgrade in 2014 but told me that he'd wait until prices came down 10%.  Despite me offering him up first crack at my listings before they hit the market, he refused and said that he'd wait until there was a price decline. Well, he's still waiting for that price decline after prices are up 15-20% since 2014 while his wife is irritated. haha

Where is Liar Loan?

If USC isn't Team Irvine... then I'm not either. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: daedalus on September 15, 2020, 11:07:04 PM
Any updates from the trenches?  I ask because inventory around me is exploding.  Have not seen this many SFRs for sale in years...maybe not since 2008-2012.  But that's my zip code.  1 zip code over, where houses are cheaper, it's a different story.  Inventory is about as tight as it has been for the past several years.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 16, 2020, 09:14:12 AM
Any updates from the trenches?  I ask because inventory around me is exploding.  Have not seen this many SFRs for sale in years...maybe not since 2008-2012.  But that's my zip code.  1 zip code over, where houses are cheaper, it's a different story.  Inventory is about as tight as it has been for the past several years.

I'm pulling the numbers together for August and will post it up later on today. From what I see there is still a lack of inventory into the sub $1m in Irvine and a ton in the $1.5m+ market but the higher end of the market has picked up a bit over the past few months.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: talkirvine on September 16, 2020, 11:05:15 AM
Any updates from the trenches?  I ask because inventory around me is exploding.  Have not seen this many SFRs for sale in years...maybe not since 2008-2012.  But that's my zip code.  1 zip code over, where houses are cheaper, it's a different story.  Inventory is about as tight as it has been for the past several years.

I'm pulling the numbers together for August and will post it up later on today. From what I see there is still a lack of inventory into the sub $1m in Irvine and a ton in the $1.5m+ market but the higher end of the market has picked up a bit over the past few months.

Look forward to your post. By higher end, do you mean 2m+ and 2.5m+ market?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 16, 2020, 12:27:59 PM
Any updates from the trenches?  I ask because inventory around me is exploding.  Have not seen this many SFRs for sale in years...maybe not since 2008-2012.  But that's my zip code.  1 zip code over, where houses are cheaper, it's a different story.  Inventory is about as tight as it has been for the past several years.

I'm pulling the numbers together for August and will post it up later on today. From what I see there is still a lack of inventory into the sub $1m in Irvine and a ton in the $1.5m+ market but the higher end of the market has picked up a bit over the past few months.

Look forward to your post. By higher end, do you mean 2m+ and 2.5m+ market?

I classify the high end of the market in Irvine as $1.5m+
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 16, 2020, 04:08:44 PM
I classify the high end of the market in Irvine as $1.5m+

Guess I'm still a 99%er. :(
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 17, 2020, 10:21:37 AM
Attached is the data for August 2020. The data shows that the market is strengthening with increasing sales, lower inventory, and now an increase in the median price per square foot. As of this morning (Sept. 17th) there are now 422 Irvine properties in escrow which is up 26 homes or 7% from August 9th.

Sales in August 2020 were 298 or about 9% higher than August 2019 as the increased number of homes in escrow continued to close. The median price per SF increased from $479 in July 2020 and $480 in August 2019 to $485 in August 20202 and that is despite the % of homes under $1m increasing from July to August. This indicates that there have been material price increases in the lower end of the market. An example of that is my listing at 128 Coralwood which will close over 5% above the model match closed comp that closed less than 2 months ago. Inventory at the end of August 2020 was down slightly from July 2020 from 764 to 758 and down almost 25% from August 2019. Not only does the lower end of the market continue to have a serious lack of inventory but now this lack of inventory is spreading into the middle market.

The strength that I’ve been seeing in the past few months has continued to grow and has now even gotten into the higher end of the market (I had 2 higher end buyers that purchased homes over $1.5m in August) which we see over at Cetara at Orchard Hills. Many of my buyers in the lower end and middle of the market continue to see multiple counter offer situations where homes are trading above very recent closed comps as there is stiff competition for good homes. Rates continue to stay low and I have this feeling that not only do buyers have buyer fatigue of getting out bid but also I’m sensing a bit of the low interest rate FOMO from these buyers. Home builders continue to see strong sales with many released lots selling quickly.

On the interest rate front, rates continue to stay low especially in the conforming and jumbo conforming loan products where rates are around 2.75%. Jumbo 30-year purchase rates around 3% if they have strong credit and are putting 20-25% down and there is plenty of lenders that offer these loans. One of my investor clients was even able to get a 3% 30-year fixed purchase loan (conforming loan) to purchase a rental property with 25% last month. I have heard from a few lenders that purchase loans are now taking about 30-35 days due to the high loan volume.

As of today (Sept. 16th), there have been 158 closed sales in September. With the number of homes in escrow being so high currently, we are on pace to break the record number of monthly sales of 306 in July 2015 this month. If inventory decrease or remain this low you can expect further price increases, more so in the lower end of the market where there are a higher number of buyers.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 17, 2020, 10:24:54 AM
Here are the 5-year charts for active listings, closed sales, median per SF, and Days On Market (DOM) through August 2020.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: the.irvine on September 17, 2020, 10:20:34 PM
Attached is the data for August 2020. The data shows that the market is strengthening with increasing sales, lower inventory, and now an increase in the median price per square foot. As of this morning (Sept. 17th) there are now 422 Irvine properties in escrow which is up 26 homes or 7% from August 9th.

Sales in August 2020 were 298 or about 9% higher than August 2019 as the increased number of homes in escrow continued to close. The median price per SF increased from $479 in July 2020 and $480 in August 2019 to $485 in August 20202 and that is despite the % of homes under $1m increasing from July to August. This indicates that there have been material price increases in the lower end of the market. An example of that is my listing at 128 Coralwood which will close over 5% above the model match closed comp that closed less than 2 months ago. Inventory at the end of August 2020 was down slightly from July 2020 from 764 to 758 and down almost 25% from August 2019. Not only does the lower end of the market continue to have a serious lack of inventory but now this lack of inventory is spreading into the middle market.

The strength that I’ve been seeing in the past few months has continued to grow and has now even gotten into the higher end of the market (I had 2 higher end buyers that purchased homes over $1.5m in August) which we see over at Cetara at Orchard Hills. Many of my buyers in the lower end and middle of the market continue to see multiple counter offer situations where homes are trading above very recent closed comps as there is stiff competition for good homes. Rates continue to stay low and I have this feeling that not only do buyers have buyer fatigue of getting out bid but also I’m sensing a bit of the low interest rate FOMO from these buyers. Home builders continue to see strong sales with many released lots selling quickly.

On the interest rate front, rates continue to stay low especially in the conforming and jumbo conforming loan products where rates are around 2.75%. Jumbo 30-year purchase rates around 3% if they have strong credit and are putting 20-25% down and there is plenty of lenders that offer these loans. One of my investor clients was even able to get a 3% 30-year fixed purchase loan (conforming loan) to purchase a rental property with 25% last month. I have heard from a few lenders that purchase loans are now taking about 30-35 days due to the high loan volume.

As of today (Sept. 16th), there have been 158 closed sales in September. With the number of homes in escrow being so high currently, we are on pace to break the record number of monthly sales of 306 in July 2015 this month. If inventory decrease or remain this low you can expect further price increases, more so in the lower end of the market where there are a higher number of buyers.

WOW this is incredible. Comparison with other parts of the OC will be interesting, this cant be unique to Irvine.  Secondly, now as most of us are confined into our homes, so whoever can afford a bigger place are going for it with lower interest rates. We are also looking to buy 5 bed
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 04, 2020, 01:01:38 PM
I'll update the Sept data this week but I'll just say that we had an all time record for sales in Sept 2020 in Irvine.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on October 04, 2020, 05:34:50 PM
We are now approaching ludicrous speed in terms of sales velocity. Rare is the offer that will be considered unless some or all contingencies are waived. We used to see some measure of slowdown once school started. No longer now that distance learning and distance employment are becoming the norm.

Interesting times indeed.

My .02c
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 04, 2020, 07:14:40 PM
We are now approaching ludicrous speed in terms of sales velocity. Rare is the offer that will be considered unless some or all contingencies are waived. We used to see some measure of slowdown once school started. No longer now that distance learning and distance employment are becoming the norm.

Interesting times indeed.

My .02c

There's a lot of low interest rate FOMO out there coupled with a lack of inventory is causing this.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 04, 2020, 08:38:02 PM
So much pain in Irvine... where is LiarLoan? :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 04, 2020, 08:52:25 PM
So much pain in Irvine... where is LiarLoan? :)

There is pain in Irvine but only for buyers who keep getting outbid. :P
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 04, 2020, 08:53:32 PM
So much pain in Irvine... where is LiarLoan? :)

He sold his rental property a bit too early, the IE is experiencing the same inventory shortage as Irvine and Orange County.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Dr. CA Real Estate on October 04, 2020, 08:59:07 PM
Let’s all pour out a drink for those renters who forever wait ‘for prices to drop a bit’

So much pain in Irvine... where is LiarLoan? :)

He sold his rental property a bit too early, the IE is experiencing the same inventory shortage as Irvine and Orange County.

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 05, 2020, 07:57:18 AM
Let’s all pour out a drink for those renters who forever wait ‘for prices to drop a bit’

So much pain in Irvine... where is LiarLoan? :)

He sold his rental property a bit too early, the IE is experiencing the same inventory shortage as Irvine and Orange County.



I have a friend who's been waiting for a 10% price drop for the past 7 years so he could upgrade from an attached condo to a larger detached condo. He passed on about a half dozen detached condos/SFRs which I offered to him before going to market with that ended up selling for over list price. Thankfully he bought a 3-bedroom attached condo in Woodbury in 2010 but his wife is not a happy camper. haha
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: spootieho on October 05, 2020, 03:36:44 PM
I just saw this...  It had Irvine in it, so I figured I'd post it here. 

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iOQMcRgBpUR8/v0/1200x-1.png

Percent of tenants not paying rent is increasing:
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/las-vegas-tops-u-s-in-rise-of-apartment-tenants-not-paying-rent
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Liar Loan on October 09, 2020, 02:30:48 PM
So much pain in Irvine... where is LiarLoan? :)

He sold his rental property a bit too early, the IE is experiencing the same inventory shortage as Irvine and Orange County.

IHO - Don't you know things are busy for me right now?  Yet, I can't help but notice that Irvine home prices have been stuck in neutral according to USC's charts.  They've gone nowhere for almost three years now!!  Irvine is definitely underperforming the rest of OC in terms of MaxROI.

USC - All real estate is local.  How many multi's have you sold in the IE?  LOL...

My last sale was the end of April (peak COVID fear) and yet none of the comps to sell since then have exceeded my sales price.  One did match my sales price and some others sold for a LOT less but needed lots of fixing/upgrading.  There is no way an appraiser would let me sell it now for more than I sold in April.

Then you take into account that landlords have no rights under COVID, and that my highly blue collar workforce is having trouble making ends meet, and I'm happy to have sold, even if peak pricing was not achieved.  The proceeds of that sale went directly into my brokerage account and the S&P is up 20% since then, without the landlord headaches!

Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 10, 2020, 08:23:44 PM
Attached is the data for both September and October 2020. Both of these two months were record setting sales months for Irvine, surpassing the all-time monthly sales of 306 homes in July 2015 as demand has been increasing into the Fall. The strong sales will continue into November because as of today (November 10th) there are still 380 Irvine properties in escrow which down only about 10% from September 17th which had 422 Irvine properties in escrow. I would venture to say that part of that decrease is partial due in part to less inventory in the lower end of the market and newer listings have materially higher listing prices.

Sales in September 2020 were 311 or over 53% than September 2019 and sales in October 2020 were even higher at 317 or almost 42% higher than October 2019 which was a result of the large number of homes that got into escrow from late July through early October. The median price per SF increased to the second highest level of $492/sf in September 2020 from August 2020 and September 2019 (highest median price was $496/sf in May 2018) while the median price per SF decreased slightly back to $488/sf in October 2020. Inventory at the end of September 2020 was slightly lower from May 2020 from 758 to 743 and down almost 24% from September 2019 and the inventory of homes continued it decline at the end of October to 730 homes which was over 18% lower than the number of homes on the market at the end of October 2019. The lower end of the market continued to be constrained while there’s been an increase in the listings of middle and high end homes.

The strength that I’ve been seeing from both the listing and buyer side in the summer continued into September and October with more properties going into escrow at a faster pace which is reflected in the declining days-on-market (DOM) in the chart on the next thread. On the lower end of the market, I’ve seen situations where there were 5-10+ offers where buyers are asked to waive the appraisal contingency and buying the home without any repairs or credits for repairs. Some of these homes sold for 3-5%+ more than similar/model matches that closed 1-2 months earlier. It is getting harder and harder to find homes for buyers in the lower end of the market due to all buyers in the market but I did have some success with a few buyers by going very fast (i.e. going to see the home within a day or two of being listed and making an offer on the same day). 

Builders on the lower and middle market (mainly California Pacific Homes) have no unsold homes for the most part as buyers who are getting outbid on resales homes are opting for a new home. I’ve also noticed that prices are up over 5% at these California Pacific Homes communities from the summer because they are getting a bid tailwind from the strength of the resale market. Even builders on the middle and higher end are now not offering the same kind of discounts on released and unsold homes like they did in the Spring and Summer (I’m speaking mainly about Lennar, Shea, TriPoint, and KB). 

Interest rates continued to bleed even lower and touched 2.50% for conforming and jumbo conforming loans in the fall while jumbo rates were a bit higher around 3%. A few of my buyers that bought homes around $1m opted to put enough down to bring their loan balance to the jumbo conforming loan limit amount of $765,600 to take advantage of the low rates. Interest rates did begin to tick up a little bit in November as bond yields have risen but we’ll see how much higher they go.

The market looks to be very strong right now and good properties that are priced right fly into escrow with multiple offers. Going “fast” and making strong offers with favorable seller terms can make a difference. Unless a significant amount of homes come onto the market and/or interest rates increase materially, I don’t see things slowing down as Covid vaccines and treatments are right around the corner. That being said, I believe that the median Irvine home price will exceed $500/sf sometime in early 2021.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 10, 2020, 08:24:44 PM
Here are the 5-year charts for active listings, closed sales, median per SF, and Days On Market (DOM) through October 2020.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 22, 2020, 09:07:44 AM
Something very interesting just happened that I haven't seen in 7 years.  The number of properties in escrow exceeds the number of active listings in Irvine.  Back in 2013 when we had about 1 month of inventory we had the same thing happen. That being said, we are at/near the seasonal low point of inventory in the year.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Cares on December 22, 2020, 09:46:24 AM
Most of the low inventory is artificial though due to policy.

Eviction moratorium, mortgage forbearance, etc. all restrict supply. People that want to sell can't sell before they can't evict. People that would normally sell because they are trading up aren't selling because there isn't inventory for them to buy. People who normally would foreclose have leeway due to forbearance.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 22, 2020, 01:21:00 PM
Most of the low inventory is artificial though due to policy.

Eviction moratorium, mortgage forbearance, etc. all restrict supply. People that want to sell can't sell before they can't evict. People that would normally sell because they are trading up aren't selling because there isn't inventory for them to buy. People who normally would foreclose have leeway due to forbearance.

That's part of it but the other reasons why inventory is so low is that there is strong demand (as reflected in the record sales volume) and that move-up buyers who refinanced into these super low rates are keeping their smaller properties as rentals as they pencil with the low rates.  From the demand side, I'm seeing 5-15 competing offers on homes that I'm making offers for on behalf of my buyers so even if you double the amount of inventory that may not satisfy the buyer demand and it's not just in Irvine either.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 22, 2020, 03:55:29 PM
Where is Liar Loan?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: HMart on December 22, 2020, 04:27:08 PM
I would expect a fair number of people to move away from Irvine to lower-cost markets if their work goes remote full-time. I personally don't know anybody like this, but I have been observing the *commercial* office real estate market in Irvine, and that has been VERY soft. If less offices require butts in seats, the appeal of living close to work here in Irvine has to take a toll.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Goriot on December 22, 2020, 07:07:03 PM
I would expect a fair number of people to move away from Irvine to lower-cost markets if their work goes remote full-time. I personally don't know anybody like this, but I have been observing the *commercial* office real estate market in Irvine, and that has been VERY soft. If less offices require butts in seats, the appeal of living close to work here in Irvine has to take a toll.

I have been working remotely since when the pandemic started to get serious in March and we are thinking about making this remote work permanent.  But, I ain't going No where.  I can't find anywhere else that is as clean with natural surroundings/trails, low crime, good education/school, ethnic food variety and markets, good choice of shopping destinations, easy access to roads/fwys, with so many attractions as Irvine.   I am willing to pay the high price to work and live in Irvine.

I actually know few families from LA, NYC, and SF moving to Irvine to work remotely here.  I am sure it goes both ways.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 22, 2020, 10:44:11 PM
I would expect a fair number of people to move away from Irvine to lower-cost markets if their work goes remote full-time. I personally don't know anybody like this, but I have been observing the *commercial* office real estate market in Irvine, and that has been VERY soft. If less offices require butts in seats, the appeal of living close to work here in Irvine has to take a toll.

I have been working remotely since the pandemic started to get serious in March and we are thinking about making this remote work permanent.  But, I ain't going No where.  I can't find anywhere else that is as clean with natural surroundings/trails, low crime, good education/school, ethic food variety and markets, good choice of shopping destinations, easy access to roads/fwys, with so many attractions as Irvine.   I am willing to pay the high price to work and live in Irvine.

I actually know few families from LA, NYC, and SF moving to Irvine to work remotely here.  I am sure it goes both ways.


Agreed. Working remote means you can live where you want and without the expense of driving to your office, you can use that savings to afford Irvine. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: OCtoSV on December 23, 2020, 09:11:03 AM
Many people up here in the Bay area are leaving for much cheaper Irvine or even Texas, but unless you're super tight with the GM of your BU and are 100% sure your move is cool with that person, HR and Finance will take a dim view a year from now especially as it relates to compensation and succession planning.

I played golf with a prominent local realtor yesterday and he gave me a staggering statistic - Santa Clara/San Mateo County 35 yr median sale price CAGR is just under 9%. NIMBYism and crushing CEQA regs create artificially low inventory that becomes a vehicle for storing wealth from the equity markets, compounded by the Prop 13 landed tax aristocracy of 60s/70s era buyers.

OC is lucky to have the Irvine Company and so much high quality newer inventory. Eventually some of these Bay area companies need to migrate south to enable their younger workers to stay in CA.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: winterblues on December 23, 2020, 10:01:46 AM
These OC housing trends are depressing. I work hard and make an okay salary, and would love to be able to move up from my Irvine detached condo to a modest home with a driveway and yard. Now I feel stuck. Irvine will be out of reach for first-time buyers and middle class move up buyers. I am personally am considering south county now, as much as I don't want to leave Irvine.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on December 23, 2020, 10:30:50 AM
These OC housing trends are depressing. I work hard and make an okay salary, and would love to be able to move up from my Irvine detached condo to a modest home with a driveway and yard. Now I feel stuck. Irvine will be out of reach for first-time buyers and middle class move up buyers. I am personally am considering south county now, as much as I don't want to leave Irvine.

Your value might stay up higher in Irvine than south county. (plus bettttter food options in Irvine)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 23, 2020, 10:32:43 AM
I would expect a fair number of people to move away from Irvine to lower-cost markets if their work goes remote full-time. I personally don't know anybody like this, but I have been observing the *commercial* office real estate market in Irvine, and that has been VERY soft. If less offices require butts in seats, the appeal of living close to work here in Irvine has to take a toll.

Sure there may some of those people but I've had a handful of buyers this year that moved to Irvine from LA, Bay Area, Chicago area, and New York because they wanted the good schools, great weather, and planned community of Irvine because their jobs become fully remote this year and will remain so into the future. To those buyers, Irvine was either close to what they were paying or cheaper (compared to LA and the Bay Area).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on December 23, 2020, 10:36:39 AM
I would expect a fair number of people to move away from Irvine to lower-cost markets if their work goes remote full-time. I personally don't know anybody like this, but I have been observing the *commercial* office real estate market in Irvine, and that has been VERY soft. If less offices require butts in seats, the appeal of living close to work here in Irvine has to take a toll.

Thanks for your post. I agree with your post. But I also hear companies eager to bring people back after the vaccine and safe environment to come back to work. So I guess make sure the company you work for is 100% remote going forward.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: moc on December 23, 2020, 01:06:06 PM
These OC housing trends are depressing. I work hard and make an okay salary, and would love to be able to move up from my Irvine detached condo to a modest home with a driveway and yard. Now I feel stuck. Irvine will be out of reach for first-time buyers and middle class move up buyers. I am personally am considering south county now, as much as I don't want to leave Irvine.

Winterblues I'm sure it doesn't help but solidarity friend. We are in the same boat. We have been very happy with our attached condo "starter home" for now - but in a few years when we (hopefully) have little ones running around I think we will be desperate for a yard and a fourth bedroom and sadly won't be able to afford that in Irvine. We love living here. I just have to hope that our salary increases and value of our current home allow us to afford something with will be happy with in Irvine. Hopefully what seems completely unattainable now will feel within reach in the future.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zovall on December 23, 2020, 01:33:36 PM
These OC housing trends are depressing. I work hard and make an okay salary, and would love to be able to move up from my Irvine detached condo to a modest home with a driveway and yard. Now I feel stuck. Irvine will be out of reach for first-time buyers and middle class move up buyers. I am personally am considering south county now, as much as I don't want to leave Irvine.

Winterblues I'm sure it doesn't help but solidarity friend. We are in the same boat. We have been very happy with our attached condo "starter home" for now - but in a few years when we (hopefully) have little ones running around I think we will be desperate for a yard and a fourth bedroom and sadly won't be able to afford that in Irvine. We love living here. I just have to hope that our salary increases and value of our current home allow us to afford something with will be happy with in Irvine. Hopefully what seems completely unattainable now will feel within reach in the future.

As you've both lived in Irvine for a while, I'm sure you've paid attention to the pros/cons of your current homes and have a desire to have more pros/less cons in your next home. It's been a challenge for me to unsee the cons and I'd encourage looking outside Irvine and weigh those pros/cons.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: winterblues on December 23, 2020, 03:23:21 PM
@moc, thank you for the solidarity. My kids are 3 and 7 and it's hard feeling so cramped (being at home 24/7 during COVID I'm sure has amplified those feelings). Yes, we love that we have a ton of parks and trails to go to, but the tiny bedrooms means our "great room" looks like a daycare with toys everywhere, and our 8 foot patio means barely any space for a game of catch. I realize this will be less of an issue when the kids get older and they will want to be with their friends more than they will want to be at home, but I'm really lamenting the lack of space at their ages.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: winterblues on December 23, 2020, 03:26:39 PM
@zovall, tell me more! I'm totally with you--so hard to focus on anything but the cons. Are you still in Irvine? What have you settled on--do the pros of being in Irvine outweigh the cons?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on December 23, 2020, 05:04:52 PM
He has a maga approach. He might tell you to leave California. But keep in this mind the hard hit RE out of state values that droppppppped during the last RE recession.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on December 23, 2020, 05:08:11 PM
Also, keep in mind if you move far away. Your work might want you back to work after vaccinations widely available. Then what? IDK
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 23, 2020, 05:09:31 PM
If you don't mind south county... your money can get you more in Lake Forest, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel... etc. We looked at those places pretty hard a few years ago but Irvine was closer for us to most of the things we do.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: nosuchreality on December 23, 2020, 06:08:29 PM
Its depends what you want from Irvine.

New home builds, job proximity, good schools*, proximity to new shopping, lots of parks, HOA cleaniness and structure, comfortably insulated in upper middle class expectations, etc.

Identify what you want, identify where else to go.

*really driven by hyper competitive parents with significant investment in kumon, SAT prep and tutors.  Peer pressure is wonderful for defiing expectations though.

Apologies to all, I'm feeling cranky and snarky.


Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zovall on December 23, 2020, 06:41:04 PM
@zovall, tell me more! I'm totally with you--so hard to focus on anything but the cons. Are you still in Irvine? What have you settled on--do the pros of being in Irvine outweigh the cons?

For me, commute time to work may be my highest priority because it allows me to maximize time with family. Good schools are important and I believe that it really comes down to being an involved parent and taking responsibility for teaching your kids and being involved in the school community. And that's harder to do if you work far from where you live.

This pandemic has also had me reevaluate things like yard size, space from neighbors, etc. I've actually enjoyed the hermit lifestyle of the past year. I've spent much less time driving around and spent more time with the kids, trying to garden, working out, cooking, etc.

I think the next 10 years are when I would need the most home. I'm not working hard now to buy a larger home after the kids have gone to college. I'd rather do it now and have us all use it.

I'm 100% remote right now and I'd like to continue that (or go into the office 1-2x a week) when the pandemic 'ends'. Taking that into account opens up a much wider search area. I like many things about the master planned communities and I'm looking at Tustin/Irvine and South OC as well as Yorba Linda (many large lots in the "Land of Gracious Living"). The Irvine Company really extracted as much $ as they could while creating all kinds of high density homes even back in the 1970s. I don't want any of their compromises which leaves few choices in Irvine.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 23, 2020, 07:10:33 PM
Sorry... zovall... Yorba Linda was never on my radar... too far from the ocean.

Even Tustin was a bit "inland" for me.

Maybe some new inbuild in Costa Mesa or HB?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zovall on December 23, 2020, 08:06:13 PM
too far from the ocean.

Is it the weather (temperature, winds, humidity) and/or the actual time it takes to get to the beach or something else?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvineboy on December 23, 2020, 08:09:50 PM
We looked at Laguna Niguel.  Close to beach and great feeling of not having fobs everywhere.   They have some nice gated communities there also.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 23, 2020, 09:49:39 PM
too far from the ocean.

Is it the weather (temperature, winds, humidity) and/or the actual time it takes to get to the beach or something else?


Yeah. Mostly that.

I must be part fish. :)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: aquabliss on December 24, 2020, 09:22:36 PM
We looked at Laguna Niguel.  Close to beach and great feeling of not having fobs everywhere.   They have some nice gated communities there also.

When I read this I thought at first that in Laguna Niguel you don’t need your key fob to get into the community pool.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Cornflakes on January 14, 2021, 04:20:37 PM
Just how hot the market is...

I saw a site being developed and frames for model homes going up in San Diego. When I called the builder to ask when are they releasing phase 1, they said phase 1 was released last month and it is sold out. They are selling $1.5m homes virtually, and show the dirt lot to buyers if they are interested in knowing what lot their home willl be built on.

#Hysteria
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: nosuchreality on January 14, 2021, 05:23:52 PM
Is it hysteria?   

SoCal’s housing stock is remarkably shitty, IMHO.  Especially San Diego and stock within a decent commute of the job centers.  The rental market, while easy to point to glitzy new developments have notable negative trade offs in price, stability and space.  If you’re DINK enjoying the urbanish scene, it’s wonderful, if you’re a young family, not so much.

Eventually the pandemic will end, in the mean time, lots of angst in apartments and dense condos about the Covidiot across the hall.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 14, 2021, 05:48:57 PM
LiarLoan always goes quiet when his umpteenth prediction of Irvine housing prices tanking fails to come to fruition.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: kpatnps on January 14, 2021, 06:51:06 PM
LiarLoan always goes quiet when his umpteenth prediction of Irvine housing prices tanking fails to come to fruition.

I think when looking at price of housing, one has to look at inflation adjusted costs since prices of all assets will always rise due to money getting cheaper.  Thus if we see 3% rise in housing costs, I consider that break even.  If prices stay flat then I consider that as prices having decreased, similar to how money in a saving account is losing value due to inflation.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I dont ever recall him calling for prices to tank.  He did, howeer, claim it was going to slow down a couple years ago.  I dont think he was wrong.  Early 2019 was a good time to buy.


Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 15, 2021, 08:26:40 AM
LiarLoan always goes quiet when his umpteenth prediction of Irvine housing prices tanking fails to come to fruition.

I also wonder if he'll try to claim that he sold his rental at the peak when there is a serious lack of inventory just about everywhere.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 15, 2021, 08:31:48 AM
LiarLoan always goes quiet when his umpteenth prediction of Irvine housing prices tanking fails to come to fruition.

I think when looking at price of housing, one has to look at inflation adjusted costs since prices of all assets will always rise due to money getting cheaper.  Thus if we see 3% rise in housing costs, I consider that break even.  If prices stay flat then I consider that as prices having decreased, similar to how money in a saving account is losing value due to inflation.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I dont ever recall him calling for prices to tank.  He did, howeer, claim it was going to slow down a couple years ago.  I dont think he was wrong.  Early 2019 was a good time to buy.




In general your statement is true if the home is owned outright.  However, inflation eats away at the nominal loan amount from a real dollar perspective and that's especially the case when your interest rate is lower than the rate of inflation.  Real estate allows you to use cheap leverage to build wealth over the longer term.

I'm going through all the data and putting my thoughts together before I post the year-end update along with my prediction for real estate prices in 2021 in the coming few days.  All I'll say is that it is nuts in the lower end of the market (I'll provide a few examples of homes in my post).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 09:27:55 AM
LiarLoan always goes quiet when his umpteenth prediction of Irvine housing prices tanking fails to come to fruition.

I think when looking at price of housing, one has to look at inflation adjusted costs since prices of all assets will always rise due to money getting cheaper.  Thus if we see 3% rise in housing costs, I consider that break even.  If prices stay flat then I consider that as prices having decreased, similar to how money in a saving account is losing value due to inflation.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I dont ever recall him calling for prices to tank.  He did, howeer, claim it was going to slow down a couple years ago.  I dont think he was wrong.  Early 2019 was a good time to buy.




In general your statement is true if the home is owned outright.  However, inflation eats away at the nominal loan amount from a real dollar perspective and that's especially the case when your interest rate is lower than the rate of inflation.  Real estate allows you to use cheap leverage to build wealth over the longer term.

I'm going through all the data and putting my thoughts together before I post the year-end update along with my prediction for real estate prices in 2021 in the coming few days.  All I'll say is that it is nuts in the lower end of the market (I'll provide a few examples of homes in my post).

Many first time buyers are fed up with waiting for the price to reduce like 2008-2011. While waiting, they only wasted money on rent and got even slightly higher prices on homes they were hoping to see crash. With the historic super low interest rates, they’re not waiting anymore.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2021, 09:29:10 AM
How do you they are fed up?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 09:36:46 AM
How do you they are fed up?

According to you, I'm a fake news spreader who is secretly YF/BTB. So why you care?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on January 15, 2021, 09:48:14 AM
The buyers are fed up waiting for prices to moderate, but many FTHB are confused by demand, low rates, and payment shock. A day does not go by when I have this conversation:

Buyer: I want to move out of my rental now that rates are sooooper low!
Me: Great. Have you looked at any homes?
Buyer: Yes, I saw this 2 bedroom condo in Irvine listed at $600,000. I want to offer $600,000. Will that work?
Me: No. You have to offer $625,000 just to be considered. Talk with your Agent about this.
Buyer: Wut?  :-\

Me: How much do you pay in rent?
Buyer: I pay $2,100 to the Irvine Company. I know that rates are low! If I offer $625,000 and I have 20 percent down, what will my payment be?
Me: The loan itself will be $1,975 per month at 2.50% rate.
Buyer: Sweeeeeeet! Let's buy this place!!!!
Me: But there are taxes, insurance, and HOA dues. The full payment is $3,000.
Buyer: Wut??  ???

Me: Still want to buy?
Buyer: I'm paying $25,000 over list. I'm increasing my payment by $900 per month. I guess I'd have to just to get in the game.
Me: Whoops... Redfin just flipped that home from Available to Under Contract. Do you have any other properties you want to buy?
Buyer:  :( :( :( :( :( >:( >:( >:( >:(

Day in..... Day out....

That's the front line in the greater LA area housing market. Everything from Point Dume South to Rosarito Beach is selling so fast and at such a high price. Anything listed longer than 60 days is either in a garbage area or wish level grossly overpriced.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 10:03:38 AM
I know your offer above listing price will get you a better chance, but I always recommend not to offer above asking price. If possible, go even lower. Of course your agent (considering you have a good one) will know better, but I think it's worth a try. The seller will counter with the highest asking price they received anyways, although not all do.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on January 15, 2021, 10:46:49 AM
I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on January 15, 2021, 10:51:33 AM
Also, why did housing go down in 2018?...cause Jerome Powell raised the interest rates to reign in the FEDS balance sheet.  I think in 2018 at it's lowest it was $3.5 trillion.  What is it today? $6.5 trillion plus?.....

DOW 400000000000000000....40,000 LOL
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 15, 2021, 10:55:22 AM
Thanks for the props zubs... but I know from experience that timing the market is close to impossible.

What I do know, is that if affordability and stability are there for you... you can buy whenever you find a house you like. If it drops, you still can afford the payment for a house you wanted, if it rises... gravy.

I know ken will jump in with transaction costs, but that's what the stability argument is for. But then someone counters and says people move every 5-7 years... well, if that's the case... transaction costs are zero sum because people are doing it anyways right?

It's a choice, rent and invest, buy and have a home, or buy and do both... no one knows more about your finances and future than you... some people love to rent (like I love to lease cars) but if I never stretched and bought my first home, I would have regretted it now (although I do regret not putting more money into certain stocks).
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 10:56:42 AM
I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2021, 11:00:25 AM
How do you they are fed up?

According to you, I'm a fake news spreader who is secretly YF/BTB. So why you care?

You make a statement. But you have no support. Just like covid and the god thread. You just don’t get it.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Cares on January 15, 2021, 11:03:52 AM
I know your offer above listing price will get you a better chance, but I always recommend not to offer above asking price. If possible, go even lower. Of course your agent (considering you have a good one) will know better, but I think it's worth a try. The seller will counter with the highest asking price they received anyways, although not all do.

Completely wrong strategy in this environment - at least for any home worth making an offer for. For the lower end market for FTHB (between $700-900k depending on city), I am seeing severe lack of inventory. It isn't uncommon to get 5-10 offers over asking. No listing agent is going to realistically going to bother with a counter for offers below asking.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 11:06:52 AM
I know your offer above listing price will get you a better chance, but I always recommend not to offer above asking price. If possible, go even lower. Of course your agent (considering you have a good one) will know better, but I think it's worth a try. The seller will counter with the highest asking price they received anyways, although not all do.

Completely wrong strategy in this environment - at least for any home worth making an offer for. For the lower end market for FTHB (between $700-900k depending on city), I am seeing severe lack of inventory. It isn't uncommon to get 5-10 offers over asking. No listing agent is going to realistically going to bother with a counter for offers below asking.

Yeah, you're more right than me on this. I'm just sharing what I think is worth trying and did work for myself whenever I purchased properties. But your opinion is a more popular one for sure. I personally don't choose popular ones for many other things as well. ;)

Also one thing to note is that this is a season with less inventory overall anyways.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2021, 11:07:41 AM
Btw - I am seeing price reductions in other markets. (Just saying)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on January 15, 2021, 11:08:35 AM
I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Compare buying in 2021 and buying in 2018.  Which was better?  There was way more inventory in 2018, so you could get your dream house for a more expensive price.  This was IHO's main argument back in 2018.  If you were to buy now at 2021, you are paying 2018 + prices and picking from reduced housing stock.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 11:12:05 AM
I was wrong in 2018 when we were talking about the housing collapse coming in 2021.  I predicted a flat to 10% max decline, but instead, we got a what? 10% increase from 2018 to 2021?

Anyway, mety, eyephone, kenkoko thought it would go lower.  They were a little bit right for about 6 months @ the end of 2018.


If you had listened to IHO and bought your dream house in 2018 when people thought it may go lower, you would be in a better position today.

Yes, I surely thought the price would go down since it was going up too fast 2017-2018. It did go down and it did have a little bit of pause in the market from 2018-2019. But it picked up again with the surprising low interest rates pretty fast. Although I admit I was wrong, I still think buying in 2019 was a better buying time than 2018.

Compare buying in 2021 and buying in 2018.  Which was better?  There was way more inventory in 2018, so you could get your dream house for a more expensive price.  This was IHO's main argument back in 2018.  If you were to buy now at 2021, you are paying 2018 + prices and picking from reduced housing stock.

You forgot this quote.

"Also one thing to note is that this is a season with less inventory overall anyways."

#SEASONAL
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: zubs on January 15, 2021, 11:13:07 AM
The seasonal argument was stupid.  I didn't care for it.  The other stuff was fine.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 11:14:56 AM
How do you they are fed up?

According to you, I'm a fake news spreader who is secretly YF/BTB. So why you care?

You make a statement. But you have no support. Just like covid and the god thread. You just don’t get it.

Support like other members' support? I'm not really looking for one if you still haven't figured out.

I do provide support of what I'm saying in a way I think reasonable. For example, whenever I talk about God, I provide bible verses within the whole context of the all 66 books of the bible, not in a single verse which many people make mistakes on. For Covid, I only cast my opinions, but I never said Covid doesn't exist or suggested anyone not to practice safety protocols. You and I've been almost on the same side in terms of how we deal with this disease believe or not. We only disagreed on couple things which didn't really affect the way we practice safety guidelines for ourselves and others.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 11:16:24 AM
The seasonal argument was stupid.  I didn't care for it.  The other stuff was fine.

It IS the season with the low inventories though. So we can't really compare 2018 summer with 2020-21 winter. Seasonal hashtag was a joke. 8)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 11:18:11 AM
Btw - I am seeing price reductions in other markets. (Just saying)

Wooo... Don't start that war with IHO again. I mean you guys finally get along now I don't want you guys fight again. ;)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 15, 2021, 12:52:47 PM
I know your offer above listing price will get you a better chance, but I always recommend not to offer above asking price. If possible, go even lower. Of course your agent (considering you have a good one) will know better, but I think it's worth a try. The seller will counter with the highest asking price they received anyways, although not all do.

I'm finding more and more listing agents getting lazy and either accepting the highest offer right off the bat OR only countering the top X buyers with the best and final counters so I'm advising my buyers to put their best foot forward right away because they may not get a chance in increase their bid.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 15, 2021, 12:55:19 PM
Also, why did housing go down in 2018?...cause Jerome Powell raised the interest rates to reign in the FEDS balance sheet.  I think in 2018 at it's lowest it was $3.5 trillion.  What is it today? $6.5 trillion plus?.....

DOW 400000000000000000....40,000 LOL

Prices blipped down 3-5% in late 2018 primarily because interest rates kissed 5% but that didn't last long and by early-mid 2019 those price declines were erased.  Prices are up about 8-10% just in the past year from what I'm seeing in the low to middle market.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: nosuchreality on January 15, 2021, 02:45:30 PM
Btw - I am seeing price reductions in other markets. (Just saying)

Wooo... Don't start that war with IHO again. I mean you guys finally get along now I don't want you guys fight again. ;)

Unincorporated OC, Irvine adjacent. 

Offered for $1,999,999 Price Reduced $1,799,000.
(https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/dilapidated-tin-roof-shack-wood-smoke-shed-rural-kentucky-rusty-overgrowth-52215258.jpg)
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Cares on January 15, 2021, 03:00:38 PM
That's a bargain. Imagine having grass in your front yard in Irvine?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 03:12:57 PM
Actually that is a bargain. That much land in Irvine or even any part of OC for that price? Yeah, I'll take it.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2021, 03:18:57 PM
Actually that is a bargain. That much land in Irvine or even any part of OC for that price? Yeah, I'll take it.

Sorry not all part of OC is overpriced. As I said you can get a SFH with a driveway somewhere else.
#Misinformation
#alternativefacts
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 03:21:23 PM
Actually that is a bargain. That much land in Irvine or even any part of OC for that price? Yeah, I'll take it.

Sorry not all part of OC is overpriced. As I said you can get a SFH with a driveway somewhere else.
#Misinformation

Ok, Mr. So-Serious-Yet-So-Wrong.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 03:25:26 PM
Hey eyephone, do you live in Fullerton?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2021, 03:26:55 PM
Hey eyephone, do you live in Fullerton?
Nope
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 03:27:31 PM
Hey eyephone, do you live in Fullerton?
Nope

Ok. Thanks
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2021, 03:29:36 PM
Lets amuse ourselves and talk like Mety. RE is so hot, that you can’t find a place with grass under $1.8 mil in Southern California. That is why I might move.
The listings that are lower are fake and don’t trust it. Buy now
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 03:34:34 PM
There you go, mah'MAN. Loosen up a bit. Biden is the new Prez. Your new stimulus check is coming soon.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2021, 03:41:58 PM
There you go, mah'MAN. Loosen up a bit. Biden is the new Prez. Your new stimulus check is coming soon.

What does that got to do with me? I don’t know what happened to you, but you use to give good RE advice. Now it’s not that good.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 03:45:03 PM
There you go, mah'MAN. Loosen up a bit. Biden is the new Prez. Your new stimulus check is coming soon.

What does that got to do with me? I don’t know what happened to you, but you use to give good RE advice. Now it’s not that good.

So it's a good advise as long as it aligns with your opinion, right? Once you see a different opinion, it's either a fake or bad advise?
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 03:49:45 PM
Alright in all seriousness...

I think more and more people are buying these days because:

1) of the low interest rates.

2) Covid is forcing people to stay home so people spend more on home by owning or buying stuff in.

3) the home price is just not falling/crashing (yet).

I see these as reasons based on people buying around me. Any counter arguments are welcome as long as they'r not as rude as eyephone's. ;D
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2021, 03:52:55 PM
There you go, mah'MAN. Loosen up a bit. Biden is the new Prez. Your new stimulus check is coming soon.

What does that got to do with me? I don’t know what happened to you, but you use to give good RE advice. Now it’s not that good.

So it's a good advise as long as it aligns with your opinion, right? Once you see a different opinion, it's either a fake or bad advise?

My opinion? They you can’t find a house with grass and I will throw in a drive way in Orange County less than $1.8 mil.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2021, 03:57:57 PM
Rude? Sorry I am telling it like how it is.
I am looking for value. I always trying to stretch the quarter or dollar. I think many people are like that.

But to give a false narrative that a buyer should expect to buy a house is 1.8 mil if you want grass in so cal is false.
Title: Re: Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market…
Post by: Mety on January 15, 2021, 03:58:22 PM
There you go, mah'MAN. Loosen up a bit. Biden is the new Prez. Your new stimulus check is coming soon.

What does that got to do with me? I don’t know what happened to you, but you use to give good RE advice. Now it’s not that good.

So it's a good advise as long as it aligns with your opinion, right? Once you see a different opinion, it's either a fake or bad advise?

My opinion? They you can’t find a house with grass and I will throw in a drive way in Orange County less than $1.8 mil.

Come on man. That picture was a joke. Oh boy..