Talk Irvine

General => Real Estate => Irvine Real Estate => Topic started by: irvinehomeowner on April 05, 2012, 09:26:05 AM

Title: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 05, 2012, 09:26:05 AM
I remember back when people were more active on the IHB blog, the bears kept pointing out how Irvine inventory (at the 700s at the time I think) was rising and it was going to go through the roof.

I've been reading reports that while sales numbers (not prices) are high, the number of homes available are not, so I checked the IHB chart and was surprised to see that Irvine is now at 526:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/inventory/

(http://i44.tinypic.com/125gyno.jpg)

The last time numbers got that low was late 2009 and it's less than half the high in July 2007 (1270).

And it's not just Irvine, if you look at the graph, Aliso Viejo has the same ups and downs... which I find very interesting.

It seems like a chicken/egg thing... low inventory keeps prices from dropping quickly but dropping prices may also keep people from listing their homes.

I wonder where these numbers will go as we approach the usually active summer selling season.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on April 05, 2012, 09:51:11 AM
It's not just OC (Irvine, AV, etc), it's all over the country. Bay Area neighborhoods, where I am actually currently searching for a property, are down 20% to 40% YOY.

I think Calculated Risk has the best take on what is transpiring here:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/comments-on-existing-home-inventory.html

If you don't want to read the entire article, it comes down to 4 points:
1) Sellers waiting for market to improve. I'd like to add to CR's take that some are hoping for a loan mod or principal reduction based on the news of the BofA deal. Additionally, some (actually many based on my searches of sale history in neighborhoods I'm scanning) may not be able to "traditionally" sell their properties based on current market conditions making their homes more part of shadow inventory than active inventory.

2) Some percentage of this is seasonal. We'll see what happens in the Summer.

3) Active listings as reported by the NAR don't report contingent short sales which if you look at just OC, there are many.

4) Robo-signing scandal dropped foreclosures by about 1/3 YOY in 2011. That definitely has an effect on inventory.

Notice #1 and #4 are at least partially created by artificial conditions.

The effect however is that pricing is dropping slower than it normally would with normal inventory levels.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 05, 2012, 10:29:00 AM
I track the area of where my dad lives in Vegas and there isn't much out there for sales either.  It'll be interesting to see if the summer selling season brings more listings because in Irvine we are down about 40% from the number of listings there were last April. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 05, 2012, 10:29:41 AM
It's not just OC (Irvine, AV, etc), it's all over the country. Bay Area neighborhoods, where I am actually currently searching for a property, are down 20% to 40% YOY.

I think Calculated Risk has the best take on what is transpiring here:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/comments-on-existing-home-inventory.html

If you don't want to read the entire article, it comes down to 4 points:
1) Sellers waiting for market to improve. I'd like to add to CR's take that some are hoping for a loan mod or principal reduction based on the news of the BofA deal. Additionally, some (actually many based on my searches of sale history in neighborhoods I'm scanning) may not be able to "traditionally" sell their properties based on current market conditions making their homes more part of shadow inventory than active inventory.

2) Some percentage of this is seasonal. We'll see what happens in the Summer.

3) Active listings as reported by the NAR don't report contingent short sales which if you look at just OC, there are many.

4) Robo-signing scandal dropped foreclosures by about 1/3 YOY in 2011. That definitely has an effect on inventory.

Notice #1 and #4 are at least partially created by artificial conditions.

The effect however is that pricing is dropping slower than it normally would with normal inventory levels.
I think it's definitely #1 and #4. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: WoodburyDad on April 05, 2012, 10:32:16 AM
It's not just OC (Irvine, AV, etc), it's all over the country. Bay Area neighborhoods, where I am actually currently searching for a property, are down 20% to 40% YOY.

I think Calculated Risk has the best take on what is transpiring here:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/comments-on-existing-home-inventory.html

If you don't want to read the entire article, it comes down to 4 points:
1) Sellers waiting for market to improve. I'd like to add to CR's take that some are hoping for a loan mod or principal reduction based on the news of the BofA deal. Additionally, some (actually many based on my searches of sale history in neighborhoods I'm scanning) may not be able to "traditionally" sell their properties based on current market conditions making their homes more part of shadow inventory than active inventory.

2) Some percentage of this is seasonal. We'll see what happens in the Summer.

3) Active listings as reported by the NAR don't report contingent short sales which if you look at just OC, there are many.

4) Robo-signing scandal dropped foreclosures by about 1/3 YOY in 2011. That definitely has an effect on inventory.

Notice #1 and #4 are at least partially created by artificial conditions.

The effect however is that pricing is dropping slower than it normally would with normal inventory levels.

Whether through mods or other means, the fact that they’ve been able to stem the wave of foreclosures while reducing inventory it's taken the pressure off pricing temporarily.
Ultimately, stronger wage and job growth is needed to help offset the growing number of foreclosures already present in the pipeline.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on April 05, 2012, 11:14:07 AM
The artificial effect on pricing is apparent, but what is also apparent is that prices are still dropping even when supply is being constrained by 40% in some areas. That's very telling on the health of housing right now. It actually hurts the market in the long term, because those who don't get a loan mod, or principal reduction are going to be even more underwater by the time they realize there is no hope.

For instance in choice areas of Marin County where I'm currently looking, I've seen neighborhoods where the sales history indicated that over a dozen owners in the neighborhood were underwater by $400,000 or more based on recent comps. You have to believe that these guys, even with a loan mod or even principal reduction are going to bail, or simply not have enough cash in pocket to get out cleanly. I see all the signs of a blood bath.

2012, a garden snake trying to swallow and pass a pig.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 05, 2012, 11:20:49 AM
The artificial effect on pricing is apparent, but what is also apparent is that prices are still dropping even when supply is being constrained by 40% in some areas. That's very telling on the health of housing right now.
Totally agree. Even with "record low" interest rates... prices are still dipping.

I realize some say that 2009 was the low based on median price but I really chalk that up to a lower priced housing mix being sold at that time... because prices in the SFR ranges I'm looking at seem to be lower than 2009.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on April 05, 2012, 11:57:39 AM
Housing mix is a big part of that 2009 low.

Since sub prime was the first to go (taking WaMU and Indymac with them), you have to surmise that the homes of sub prime owners were of lesser square footage, location, and price compared to those who actually had skin in the game during the bubble.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: WoodburyDad on April 05, 2012, 12:10:39 PM
How soon before we get another round of stimulus/QE to address this situation?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on April 05, 2012, 12:23:43 PM
QE? Stimulus?

The U.S is purchasing its own debt to prop up bond prices and low yields as part of the Fed's ZIRP strategy. You simply cannot "create" liquidity out of thin air by printing paper without negative consequences. We've already tripled the U.S monetary based since 2008, and what has been accomplished because of it?

.....

I rest my case.

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: WoodburyDad on April 05, 2012, 01:16:43 PM
QE? Stimulus?

The U.S is purchasing its own debt to prop up bond prices and low yields as part of the Fed's ZIRP strategy. You simply cannot "create" liquidity out of thin air by printing paper without negative consequences. We've already tripled the U.S monetary based since 2008, and what has been accomplished because of it?

.....

I rest my case.

I agree, adding more debt is not the answer.
The fact that it’s done nothing to solve the underlying problems should be a big wake up call.
Lately, they’ve gone with European banks to help monetize the debt.
European banks buy US Treasuries in a swap deal.
The Treasuries are then used for collateral to get cheap loans from the ECB. 
The process continues 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: akim997 on April 05, 2012, 02:09:06 PM
very good points being made here.   

It's so funny hearing the story from the "other side" (realtors)...   what I'm hearing:

 - demand is so high with the market firming up...  you should really buy now...   
 - buy now or be priced out...  the economy is recovering so strong.   this is the only chance for you to buy a house with these rates...

What im actually seeing is a larger disparity between sale prices and asking prices...   there are a few wtf sellers out there listing their homes in irvine at close to $400/ft.    other than that, there really isnt anything out there...    personal opinion is that it's 1) in the article - sellers are just holding at this point.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 05, 2012, 02:19:20 PM
very good points being made here.   

It's so funny hearing the story from the "other side" (realtors)...   what I'm hearing:

 - demand is so high with the market firming up...  you should really buy now...   
 - buy now or be priced out...  the economy is recovering so strong.   this is the only chance for you to buy a house with these rates...

What im actually seeing is a larger disparity between sale prices and asking prices...   there are a few wtf sellers out there listing their homes in irvine at close to $400/ft.    other than that, there really isnt anything out there...    personal opinion is that it's 1) in the article - sellers are just holding at this point.

Yeah, those realtards are blowing smoke up your butt.  Yes there are buyers out there, but no significantly more than last year at this time.  The problem is a lack of good inventory and yeah you'll have to get into multiple offer situations on good standard sales prices around comps because of the lack of inventory but the prices aren't going over list price.   All 3 of my last sales were all REOs if that tells you anything (all Fannie/Freddie REOs at that) with another BofA REO set to close in a few weeks.  I think there are a handful of sellers out there who see that their is a very low inventory of homes on the market so they throw up those WTF prices to see if they can find a desperate buyer to pay their price (most of those homes are sitting on the market collecting dust).
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: akim997 on April 05, 2012, 03:09:38 PM
uhhh... you mean like this?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/22-Torrey-Pne-92620/home/5931664

This house sold originally in 2006 for $926K (ouch)... and they are trying to say that prices are down only 5% from Dec 06???

What's more insane is when you bring in comps:

same floor plan:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/28-Grape-Arbor-92620/home/5931538

bigger floor plan:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Bamboo-92620/home/5931615
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/20-Grape-Arbor-92620/home/5931513

Even if you start looking at averages of the 3 per sq ft, you are looking at low 330's per foot.    So how reasonable is it to think that you can sell for about $100K over comp?   Even if that is your starting price, I'm assuming they are not taking any offers in the "comp" range.     What is the realtor's role in this situation?   Are they advising their clients ("listen, you are smoking crack"), or do they just go along for the ride (in which case they are not earning their keep)...
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: akim997 on April 05, 2012, 03:14:02 PM
Does anyone feel like paying Newport Beach pricing to live in Santa Ana (well, Tustin)... 

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Ana/1241-Landfair-Cir-92705/home/4761406
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on April 08, 2012, 10:03:00 PM
QE? Stimulus?

The U.S is purchasing its own debt to prop up bond prices and low yields as part of the Fed's ZIRP strategy. You simply cannot "create" liquidity out of thin air by printing paper without negative consequences. We've already tripled the U.S monetary based since 2008, and what has been accomplished because of it?

.....

I rest my case.

I agree, adding more debt is not the answer.
The fact that it’s done nothing to solve the underlying problems should be a big wake up call.
Lately, they’ve gone with European banks to help monetize the debt.
European banks buy US Treasuries in a swap deal.
The Treasuries are then used for collateral to get cheap loans from the ECB. 
The process continues

It's not simply that we're adding more debt, because if there were 20 China's, we could sell our debt all day and continue this suicidal ZIRP strategy.

It's the fact that we're buying 60% of the debt we've created since 2008 just to keep this rickety ship floating on water.

Can you imagine if Apple had to buy 60% of the IPads/Iphones it created every year just to create artificial demand to keep the prices of the device from dropping below $500? How long would Apple stay in business? 6 months? Less?

This is not a normal model based on any sound fundamentals. It's lunacy, suicidal, flat out criminal.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Nous on April 18, 2012, 12:44:47 PM
Ah, there's the housing pessimism I've grown accustomed to!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 19, 2012, 09:34:57 AM
Inventory keeps dropping... 507 the other day.

For the last 5 years... January usually marks the the rise to the spring/summer season (and will peak in either of those seasons), this is the first year since then where inventory has noticeably dropped lower. There was a small bump this January but we are below those levels now... what is different?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 19, 2012, 09:43:58 AM
Inventory keeps dropping... 507 the other day.

For the last 5 years... January usually marks the the rise to the spring/summer season (and will peak in either of those seasons), this is the first year since then where inventory has noticeably dropped lower. There was a small bump this January but we are below those levels now... what is different?
It was actually 498 when I logged onto my MLS last night.  The number of listings should be increasing but they seem to be decreasing since Jan.  :/

Edit - make that 495 as of right now (it's 496 but one will go to back-up once my buyer drops off the deposit at escrow tomorrow  :P).   We are going the wrong way....where are the listings???  Are all the super agents like Mike Dunn and Todd Muradian on vacation???   :-\
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: iphb on April 30, 2012, 06:54:14 PM
I think this blog post exemplifies some of the irrational giddiness some are getting out today's low inventory levels.

http://southgate.patch.com/blog_posts/home-inventory-low-in-south-gate-good-sign

Most appalling in my opinion is a real estate agent actively encouraging homeowners to default strategically and try to get the banks to approve short sales on their homes. Absolutely irresponsible.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 30, 2012, 09:39:14 PM
As of 9:30pm, we are down to 481 active listings in Irvine.  What the heck, the number of listings should be increasing not decreasing... >:(  :-\   The frustrating part is that it's not just Irvine....same thing is going on in Ladera Ranch, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel, Yorba Linda, Orange, etc.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on April 30, 2012, 09:48:32 PM
Include the Bay Area; Dublin, San Ramon, Pleasanton, Fremont, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, etc.

These crooks ran out of money for tax credits so now they are letting squatters off the hook, and letting vacant homes rot.

I actually feel sorry for you RE Agents. If this continues, a lot of you are going to have to find other lines of work.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 30, 2012, 11:05:32 PM
Include the Bay Area; Dublin, San Ramon, Pleasanton, Fremont, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, etc.

These crooks ran out of money for tax credits so now they are letting squatters off the hook, and letting vacant homes rot.

I actually feel sorry for you RE Agents. If this continues, a lot of you are going to have to find other lines of work.
Same thing is going on over in Vegas in the zip code that my dad lives in.  The number of homes on the market is about half what it was throughout 2011.  Thank goodness I can fall back on my CPA.  :D  :P
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on April 30, 2012, 11:32:43 PM
I didn't know you were a CPA (or maybe I did but since I'm old I forget more than I remember).
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 30, 2012, 11:46:06 PM
I didn't know you were a CPA (or maybe I did but since I'm old I forget more than I remember).
They say the memory is the first thing to go.  haha  I'm not too worried about this low inventory, I still a few buyers into escrow in the 2-3 weeks.  The key is to move fast on decent homes. 

Btw, where's that REO tsunami that the bears on IHB were talking about for 2 years?  We could use the banks releasing the REO flood gates.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on April 30, 2012, 11:55:03 PM
Put yourself in the position of the banks; would you release any REOs? Your business is insolvent, releasing inventory would simply make you have to realize that you are insolvent. Uncle Ben says he'll keeping give you money to keep you solvent on the "books" while you slowly realize you losses for the next 10 to 20 years. No one will be the wiser, but the middle class will be a lot poorer. But who cares right? They just work for you.  8)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 30, 2012, 11:59:39 PM
Put yourself in the position of the banks; would you release any REOs? Your business is insolvent, releasing inventory would simply make you have to realize that you are insolvent. Uncle Ben says he'll keeping give you money to keep you solvent on the "books" while you slowly realize you losses for the next 10 to 20 years. No one will be the wiser, but the middle class will be a lot poorer. But who cares right? They just work for you.  8)
Oh yeah, I know that tsunami will just be a slow leak for the next decade or so.  If you want to talk about zombies, you should be talking about the big banks that are holding onto all that REO inventory because they are the walking dead with their market-to-fantasy accounting.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: LAtoOC on May 01, 2012, 09:10:41 AM
Banks are actively selling off their distressed portfolios.

BofA is beyond toxic. No one wants to deal with them anymore in the OTC space.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on May 01, 2012, 09:27:56 AM
I've read that BofA has a more toxic leverage ratio than Countrywide (which they bought in 2008) had during the bubble. Remember during the congressional disposition, Countrywide was something like 20:1 to 30:1 (tier 1 capital/total assets). BofA on the books is about 15:1, but in reality is probably closer to 40:1. That's just as bad as any of the Euro banks right now which have pretty much crippled the EU.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: iphb on May 01, 2012, 10:52:59 AM
The big banks are screwing us all in three ways.

1. Pathetically low interest rates on savings.
2. Holding back on home inventory and creating artificially tight market conditions.
3. The looming government bailout that will cost us taxpayers big time ($1 trillion or more).
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on May 02, 2012, 08:46:30 AM
Check out BofA earnings, this bank is teetering on the brink:
(http://patrick.net/forum/content/uploads/2012/05/wfearnings.JPG)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: zubs on May 02, 2012, 12:00:37 PM
It's really hard to bet against Buffet...
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on May 02, 2012, 12:51:45 PM
It's really hard to bet against Buffet...

Buffet has made some fairly expensive follies, especially in the energy sector (ConocoPhillips comes to mind). I believe his bet on BofA is a foolish one as well.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: variable229 on May 02, 2012, 01:57:16 PM
Buffet has made some fairly expensive follies, especially in the energy sector (ConocoPhillips comes to mind). I believe his bet on BofA is a foolish one as well.

Not if the bank is too big to fail (aka TARP).  BofA is propped up by the US Government.  As long as we can print money and stick to socialist ideals, BofA will not bankrupt itself.

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on May 02, 2012, 02:12:22 PM
Buffet has made some fairly expensive follies, especially in the energy sector (ConocoPhillips comes to mind). I believe his bet on BofA is a foolish one as well.

Not if the bank is too big to fail (aka TARP).  BofA is propped up by the US Government.  As long as we can print money and stick to socialist ideals, BofA will not bankrupt itself.

Even Rome didn't last forever.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: WoodburyDad on May 02, 2012, 02:16:14 PM
It's really hard to bet against Buffet...

It’s even harder to bet against the perpetual issuance of money and credit that’s going on. 
Leveraged speculation keeps expanding unchecked.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: zubs on May 02, 2012, 02:28:00 PM
What you guys are saying is that you are betting for the USA to collapse.  Not now, but maybe in 5 years? 

If the US is about to collapse, you are better off buying guns and ammo as well as a defend able property with arable land.

If you believe the US still has 40 more years before collapse, and will trudge along until that time, then you would bet with Buffet.

This is a similar discussion about interest rates we are having.  Interest rates will never go up again...reason is the US will collapse if they do, and if the US collapses, housing prices will be the least of your concerns.

So the choices are:
1. The US will collapse within 5 years
2. The US won't collapse within 40 years.

I don't think the US will collapse anytime soon, so we will be in low interest rates for a long time, while slowly debasing our currency.  40 year time frame & a slow road to hell.

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 02, 2012, 03:00:36 PM
I reckon an ELE will occur before the US collapses.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on May 02, 2012, 03:43:37 PM
What you guys are saying is that you are betting for the USA to collapse.

This is exactly what the people wanting to destroy your wealth want you to think, "If Bank of America fails the country will collapse! The horror!" Fear is a great motivator for the peons.

Chicken little had nothing on the banking cartels.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: iphb on May 03, 2012, 11:19:15 PM
It's simply the "too big to fail" principle.

If low inventories continue and demand stays where it is, prices will start to rise. Before long we could be seeing the beginning of another speculation bubble, fueled mainly by investors. They may say that they're buying real estate to rent out homes, but rising prices will make them start thinking about flipping.

And you can thank the Fed for this.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 06, 2012, 12:23:03 PM
Before heading off to show some homes for the day, MLS said that there were only 453 active listings this morning.   ???  :-\   Are the super agents on vacation or something???  Give us more listings ASAP!   >:(  >:D
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: IndieDev on May 06, 2012, 02:04:42 PM
A lot of people in your profession are going to have to start submitting job applications if things don't change...
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 06, 2012, 03:54:34 PM
A lot of people in your profession are going to have to start submitting job applications if things don't change...
Good, we could use a round 2 of flushing to get rid of those realturds that didn't getting flushed in round 1. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 12, 2012, 11:17:01 AM
So when I first posted this thread, I wondered what the numbers would look like during the summer selling season... because every year prior, inventory has gone up... for the first time in 5 years, Irvine (and actually many SoCal cities) has gone significantly down from the prior winter/spring numbers.

From the chart on:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/inventory/

7/15/07 1253
7/15/08 851
7/16/09 626
7/13/10 770
7/14/11 873
7/12/11 425

425 is the lowest number since 440 in 1/4/10... and that was a winter number. That's half of last year's inventory at this time.

Does this low availability help new home sales? Is that why Lambert Ranch is seeing good traffic?

What does that mean for the fall/winter numbers where inventory is historically lower?

"Buy now or there won't be any homes to buy?" (©2012 TalkIrvine.com)

I don't like it... esp because we are starting to look to buy again. Not sure if the wife can wait until 2013.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Nous on July 12, 2012, 11:53:47 AM
So when I first posted this thread, I wondered what the numbers would look like during the summer selling season... because every year prior, inventory has gone up... for the first time in 5 years, Irvine (and actually many SoCal cities) has gone significantly down from the prior winter/spring numbers.

From the chart on:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/inventory/

7/15/07 1253
7/15/08 851
7/16/09 626
7/13/10 770
7/14/11 873
7/12/11 425

425 is the lowest number since 440 in 1/4/10... and that was a winter number. That's half of last year's inventory at this time.

Does this low availability help new home sales? Is that why Lambert Ranch is seeing good traffic?

What does that mean for the fall/winter numbers where inventory is historically lower?

"Buy now or there won't be any homes to buy?" (©2012 TalkIrvine.com)

I don't like it... esp because we are starting to look to buy again. Not sure if the wife can wait until 2013.

I'm thinking it is a lot of fear and posturing.  Let the election season go by and give Europe time to do whatever it will be doing.  Too many people in the area concerned about their money makes stuff like this happen imo.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 12, 2012, 11:57:52 AM
Inventory keeps going lower...416 active listings as of an hour ago.  I'm really hoping we get more houses on the market soon.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: rkp on July 12, 2012, 12:07:06 PM
i understand fear of not buying but why arent people listing?  even if its WTF price, why arent they putting their houses on the market?

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: qwerty on July 12, 2012, 12:33:41 PM
i understand fear of not buying but why arent people listing?  even if its WTF price, why arent they putting their houses on the market?



underwater?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Nous on July 12, 2012, 12:54:54 PM
i understand fear of not buying but why arent people listing?  even if its WTF price, why arent they putting their houses on the market?



underwater?

This might have something to do with it for the past few years.  If you look at the YOY, people who have bought since the boom have lost money if they were to sell now.  That stops flippers also.  Also, if you are a seller, that kinda also immediately makes you a buyer unless you plan on living under the freeway.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 12, 2012, 01:17:59 PM
i understand fear of not buying but why arent people listing?  even if its WTF price, why arent they putting their houses on the market?


Foreclosures have slowed down (thank California politicians for that) and as of March or so anyone that was barely above water or underwater can refinance their mortgage to the low rates we have now.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: webmonkey on July 13, 2012, 11:09:18 AM
I've seen a more and more listings that are getting close to 2005 prices. It seems like for certain subdivisions where a few agents dominate listings are doing a good job at convincing sellers to list with them and increasing their list price from existing comops.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 13, 2012, 11:19:22 AM
I guess inflated list pricing calls for low ball offers... especially if the offers are much closer to comps than the list price.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Nous on July 13, 2012, 12:03:31 PM
<3 redfin's trending stuff.  You can see that listing prices have been going up in general while sold prices have been going down.  It is voodoo RE pricing!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 13, 2012, 12:30:09 PM
I've seen a more and more listings that are getting close to 2005 prices. It seems like for certain subdivisions where a few agents dominate listings are doing a good job at convincing sellers to list with them and increasing their list price from existing comops.
Let those listings sit on the market and collect dust.  The listing agents are only wasting their time and their client's time by listing at WTF prices.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 10, 2012, 11:24:35 AM
Wow, less than 400 (382) and still going down:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/inventory/

And now we are entering the fall/winter season... soon there will be only 1 home left for sale in Irvine and all the FCBs will be bidding 10x the list price. :(
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: The California Court Company on September 10, 2012, 11:36:23 AM
Lots of new homes are coming.

Cambria, Saratoga and Medocino in Stonegate
Sage, Garden Hill, and un-named development in Portola Springs
More SFRs in Woodbury
SFDs in Cypress Village
William Lyon's two projects in Woodbridge and University Park
Spring next year Great Park housing phase 1
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: javacly on September 10, 2012, 11:51:48 AM
Lots of new homes are coming.

Cambria, Saratoga and Medocino in Stonegate
Sage, Garden Hill, and un-named development in Portola Springs
More SFRs in Woodbury
SFDs in Cypress Village
William Lyon's two projects in Woodbridge and University Park
Spring next year Great Park housing phase 1


Un-named development in Portola Springs, which part of portola springs?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: The California Court Company on September 10, 2012, 11:59:05 AM
between LR and KB's Sage and Garden Hill.

Lots of new homes are coming.

Cambria, Saratoga and Medocino in Stonegate
Sage, Garden Hill, and un-named development in Portola Springs
More SFRs in Woodbury
SFDs in Cypress Village
William Lyon's two projects in Woodbridge and University Park
Spring next year Great Park housing phase 1


Un-named development in Portola Springs, which part of portola springs?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 10, 2012, 12:07:39 PM
Wow, less than 400 (382) and still going down:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/inventory/

And now we are entering the fall/winter season... soon there will be only 1 home left for sale in Irvine and all the FCBs will be bidding 10x the list price. :(
365 active listings in Irvine as of 12pm today (we are heading towards 1.5 months supply).
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: qwerty on September 10, 2012, 01:45:50 PM
between LR and KB's Sage and Garden Hill.

Lots of new homes are coming.

Cambria, Saratoga and Medocino in Stonegate
Sage, Garden Hill, and un-named development in Portola Springs
More SFRs in Woodbury
SFDs in Cypress Village
William Lyon's two projects in Woodbridge and University Park
Spring next year Great Park housing phase 1


Un-named development in Portola Springs, which part of portola springs?

i think that is a taylor morrison development, it will be bigger than Las Ventanas, more like Las Colinas and therefore more cash money.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Irvine_Dreamer on September 10, 2012, 06:29:39 PM
Lots of new homes are coming.

Cambria, Saratoga and Medocino in Stonegate
Sage, Garden Hill, and un-named development in Portola Springs
More SFRs in Woodbury
SFDs in Cypress Village
William Lyon's two projects in Woodbridge and University Park
Spring next year Great Park housing phase 1
Cambria in Stonegate?
I'm guessing this will start high 900K or 1 mil.
With Toscana and San Marino nearing to be sold out, TIC will need something at this price range to offer.
Between planned Jeffrey trail and Mendocino will be perfect spot for Cambria.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: The California Court Company on September 10, 2012, 06:52:29 PM
No. Cambria is Los Altos II, or attached San Mateo and is the replacement for half of the original planned Santa Clara, which as you know, totally bombed.

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: guava on October 18, 2012, 05:49:47 PM

OMG
Irvine Home Inventory less than 325 today
Will it sink below 300 ?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 18, 2012, 05:59:11 PM

OMG
Irvine Home Inventory less than 325 today
Will it sink below 300 ?
As of 5:55pm, we are down to 302 active listings in Irvine (that includes some new home listings...with the new homes we are down to 265 active listings).  We go below 300 very soon.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 18, 2012, 08:44:31 PM
This low inventory is actually temping me to list our home... it seems like we can get top dollar now or will have to wait 5-10 years.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 19, 2012, 08:11:15 AM
This low inventory is actually temping me to list our home... it seems like we can get top dollar now or will have to wait 5-10 years.

Couldn't agree more...
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: SoCal on October 19, 2012, 08:20:13 AM
If you sold now, what's your plan? The home you'd buy could be priced at top dollar, too. Going to rent? Seems like rents are on the rise. Solution??
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 19, 2012, 08:28:57 AM
If you sold now, what's your plan? The home you'd buy could be priced at top dollar, too. Going to rent? Seems like rents are on the rise. Solution??

Move to John's Creek.. duhh!!!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: ps9 on October 19, 2012, 09:18:59 AM
Stay at inlaws, that'll really get you off the fence
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 19, 2012, 10:27:34 AM
Stay at inlaws, that'll really get you off the fence
We actually did that for a few weeks while we were waiting for our new home to finish because our previous home had closed. It was a pain moving twice... and at the time we only had pets.

It wasn't that bad (well... it was my parents)... although they found out how often we eat out and were a bit irritated we didn't eat "at home" as often as they wanted. My dad had to stop walking around in his underwear for that short amount of time (what a cliche).
If you sold now, what's your plan? The home you'd buy could be priced at top dollar, too. Going to rent? Seems like rents are on the rise. Solution??
There's an argument that just because we are selling at top dollar, doesn't actually mean we'll be buying at top dollar. Segments of the market rise/drop differently... it seems like smaller SFRs could garner a higher premium because there is a lack of them (new homes in Irvine in the same square footage are usually detached condos or motorcourt homes) whereas larger homes are still a bit lower because there is inventory available in new homes. For example, I could probably sell my Irvine home and buy a larger home in Aliso Viejo or Foothill Ranch for just a little bit more. Even something in Las Ventanas or Plan 1 in Mendocino wouldn't be much more of a stretch... the problem is I'm not too keen on those floorplans or locations.

As for renting... probably not an option at this point. We want to get into another home to take advantage of these record low rates... it's almost like interest-free financing.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 19, 2012, 10:34:40 AM
Stay at inlaws, that'll really get you off the fence

Haha - couldn't agree more!  I've done this and while it was supposed to be for around a year, I hightailed out of there in 2 months.  I don't know how couples deal with living with their parents/in-laws in this new "multi-generational" living trend that's going on in Irvine.  But I guess when they provide the suitcase of cash.... it makes it easier to swallow?

I think so. For a suitcase full, I would do it.
We are in a similar predicament too. But slightly different plans. We will downgrade, and rent this one out, and depending on the election/market conditions, plan the next move- upgrade to bigger and better, or come back to this place that we will rent out.

Our mistake was to buy just the house we needed. Right now, the house suits the size of the family and requirements, but doesn't suit the pocket. If I could drink up to every time people show off how much they were prequalified to, I would be in rehab now. (Like the number of APs and extracurriculars, Indians also like to show off how much they were prequalified to, and pretty much buy all the house they are allowed to legally).

Yeah, so, we will downgrade, make sure no one visits us for a while.
In the next decade suitcases full of cash will move in, but at least one kid will move out. Needs a lot of planning, this thing called life :-)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 19, 2012, 10:46:53 AM
@cz:

That's an interesting plan you have. Didn't the refi help with the cost?

So if I got this right, you will buy a smaller home with a smaller payment... and then in a few (or maybe more than a few) years, buy a bigger home than your current one?

My original plan was to buy a temp home... could be same size as our current, but in a better location... and then in a few years buy our forever home. The Mrs. has a different plan in mind... she's tired of moving and just wants to cut out the temp home.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 19, 2012, 10:52:35 AM
@cz:

That's an interesting plan you have. Didn't the refi help with the cost?

So if I got this right, you will buy a smaller home with a smaller payment... and then in a few (or maybe more than a few) years, buy a bigger home than your current one?

My original plan was to buy a temp home... could be same size as our current, but in a better location... and then in a few years buy our forever home. The Mrs. has a different plan in mind... she's tired of moving and just wants to cut out the temp home.

Refi helped with the long term goals, and since we won't add principal payments anymore, monthly expenses are down significantly. Yes, accumulate more cash, temporarily move out, the rent in the area has grown enough to cover the monthly expenses of the house and generate some cash flow for fringe expenses. We will downgrade (buy a smaller house that would be our investment property at a later point), and stay there for a while.. Ideally two years, and revisit the plan based on market conditions.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on October 19, 2012, 10:54:56 AM
So Cal and CZ have pretty clear vision on the issue. Low inventory is a combination of "Why should I move since I've got this great 3.50% rate?" and "Why should I sell when I'm only going to re-buy at a higher price?". I can't see moving down as an option because what's to move down to other than a rental? Where are those Temp homes to buy we're reading about? Rental monthly payments are getting closer to a house payment every day. IR said in the West Irvine area - 2000+ homes - there were only 3 listings. What will cause that market to shift quickly from "stay putters" to "mover uppers"? Not much that I can see.

Is there a compelling reason to sell and buy? I can see the sell and rent argument winning at this point which won't increase the transaction count by much.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: fluffy on October 19, 2012, 10:56:38 AM
interesting... never heard of ppl bragging about how much they can prequal... haha in that case, drink a negative shot for me... no banks were willing to prequalify me and the bank i ended up using doesnt do prequalifications... something about my business being only 1 year old... lol rough market out there for small business  :-\
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 19, 2012, 10:58:20 AM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 19, 2012, 10:59:43 AM
interesting... never heard of ppl bragging about how much they can prequal... haha in that case, drink a negative shot for me... no banks were willing to prequalify me and the bank i ended up using doesnt do prequalifications... something about my business being only 1 year old... lol rough market out there for small business  :-\

I presume you are in some kind of architectural/ engineering services business depending on your construction knowledge. True or false?

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 19, 2012, 11:00:19 AM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!

Oh yes, by all means :-)
I am thinking of getting one done and framing it just to put an end to that kind of conversation!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: fluffy on October 19, 2012, 11:00:19 AM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!

 i dont have a prequal letter :'(... damn you fannie n freddie mac!! damn you!!!!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 19, 2012, 11:02:43 AM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!

Oh yes, by all means :-)
I am thinking of getting one done and framing it just to put an end to that kind of conversation!

When I run into you, remind me to show you!! I'm gonna carry it in my wallet!  :P

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: SoCal on October 19, 2012, 11:04:21 AM
CZ, not sure what you mean it doesn't suit the pocket book. On the surface, it sounds like it's too expensive. However, due to the big picture, it sounds like you want more house and can afford more house but and if it were not for limited inventory / current market conditions, you would buy said house.

All of you guys, me included. We have to realize our kids will age out of the house by the time we're ready for our ultimate dream homes. ;-) It's like the old saying: How much money is enough? Just a little bit more. For some, the same goes for a home. People are never completely happy - always looking for a little more, a little more. When is enough enough?

My proposal is simple: let's be happy with what we have. Our kids will not care about the size of our garage, the layout, or who the builder was. Think back to your own childhood and if you cared about any of those things. Our happy memories are made of a lot more than that. There are things I wish I could change about the house I bought but I didn't have much choice with such limited selection and not wanting to become house-poor. I have no plans to move up even if there money burning a hole in my pocket. Buy a rental, sure, but I will make this my happy little home at least until I need to downsize for retirement. It doesn't have to be big to be cute or impressive. It has features I enjoy and that's good enough. More than that, I hate moving.  :) Any extra money that comes my way will be better spent in other areas. It may not be the nicest home of all my friends, but it certainly could be worse.

CZ, I don't care what size your house is. You will be my friend whether you're in a studio apartment or an estate. I prefer people who are financially wise over a squander-er and especially a poser. When I accept applications for new friends, I never look at their kid's test scores, what kind of car they drive, or their area code. I read some passing comment on here about 949 vs. 714. UNREAL!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: fluffy on October 19, 2012, 11:05:11 AM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!

Oh yes, by all means :-)
I am thinking of getting one done and framing it just to put an end to that kind of conversation!

When I run into you, remind me to show you!! I'm gonna carry it in my wallet!  :P

maybe they make those mini college diplomas they give u to put in ur wallet?... that truly is some hardcore swag man... i feel like... im seriously missing out... D:
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 19, 2012, 11:05:17 AM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!

Oh yes, by all means :-)
I am thinking of getting one done and framing it just to put an end to that kind of conversation!

When I run into you, remind me to show you!! I'm gonna carry it in my wallet!  :P



OK, I will carry my tonic with me tonight :-)
BTW, I don't walk dogs. Just saying! Hope you didn't give "I know what you ate for lunch" smile to someone else.
Did you know, we work in the same neighborhood too? (based on your post in the rug discussion)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 19, 2012, 11:05:36 AM
Doesn't everyone use their prequal letter as their screensaver?

Just to show you how caught up in the bubble lenders were, our prequal now is 20% less than what it was back in 2005... but our income now is probably 80% more (and fully documented).
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 19, 2012, 11:09:09 AM
CZ, not sure what you mean it doesn't suit the pocket book. On the surface, it sounds like it's too expensive. However, due to the big picture, it sounds like you want more house and can afford more house but and if it were not for limited inventory / current market conditions, you would buy said house.

All of you guys, me included. We have to realize our kids will age out of the house by the time we're ready for our ultimate dream homes. ;-) It's like the old saying: How much money is enough? Just a little bit more. For some, the same goes for a home. People are never completely happy - always looking for a little more, a little more. When is enough enough?

My proposal is simple: let's be happy with what we have. Our kids will not care about the size of our garage, the layout, or who the builder was. Think back to your own childhood and if you cared about any of those things. Our happy memories are made of a lot more than that. There are things I wish I could change about the house I bought but I didn't have much choice with such limited selection and not wanting to become house-poor. I have no plans to move up even if there money burning a hole in my pocket. Buy a rental, sure, but I will make this my happy little home at least until I need to downsize for retirement. It doesn't have to be big to be cute or impressive. It has features I enjoy and that's good enough. More than that, I hate moving.  :) Any extra money that comes my way will be better spent in other areas. It may not be the nicest home of all my friends, but it certainly could be worse.

CZ, I don't care what size your house is. You will be my friend whether you're in a studio apartment or an estate. I prefer people who are financially wise over a squander-er and especially a poser. When I accept applications for new friends, I never look at their kid's test scores, what kind of car they drive, or their area code. I read some passing comment on here about 949 vs. 714. UNREAL!

Yes, it's the other way round- at this point, the mortgage hardly makes a dent in the paycheck. I think the extra-curriculars are the biggest expenses right now..

So I can give you my 714 home number? ;-)
Kids will be happy wherever they are. Those of us who had kids early will end up buying a bigger house when they start locking up themselves in their bedrooms, and don't visit the great rooms below. Same goes with a car I guess.. But on the plus side, we might have an untouched face at their graduation.. showing happiness like we mean it :-)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on October 19, 2012, 11:10:03 AM
CZ, I suggest keeping your home and rent it out. Use the address for the good local schools and buy yourself an old single story on a 1/3 acre lot in north Tustin. Your kids would still have the same friends and close proximity to your amenities. You would have a greater bargaining power when you are not trying to arm wrestle with FCBs with suitcaseful of cash.

My kid will be out soon and I then could focus on my dream home but then again I realized I am already living in it.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 19, 2012, 11:11:13 AM
CZ, I suggest keeping your home and rent it out. Use the address for the good local schools and buy yourself an old single story on a 1/3 acre lot in north Tustin. Your kids would still have the same friends and close proximity to your amenities. You would have a greater bargaining power when you are not trying to arm wrestle with FCBs with suitcaseful of cash.

Mind reader!! :-) I am open to West Irvine also.. but not going inside the 949.

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 19, 2012, 11:11:44 AM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!

Oh yes, by all means :-)
I am thinking of getting one done and framing it just to put an end to that kind of conversation!

When I run into you, remind me to show you!! I'm gonna carry it in my wallet!  :P



OK, I will carry my tonic with me tonight :-)
BTW, I don't walk dogs. Just saying! Hope you didn't give "I know what you ate for lunch" smile to someone else.
Did you know, we work in the same neighborhood too? (based on your post in the rug discussion)

Shall we carpool?  :D
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 19, 2012, 11:12:46 AM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!

Oh yes, by all means :-)
I am thinking of getting one done and framing it just to put an end to that kind of conversation!

When I run into you, remind me to show you!! I'm gonna carry it in my wallet!  :P



OK, I will carry my tonic with me tonight :-)
BTW, I don't walk dogs. Just saying! Hope you didn't give "I know what you ate for lunch" smile to someone else.
Did you know, we work in the same neighborhood too? (based on your post in the rug discussion)

Shall we carpool?  :D

As long as I don't have to wake you up! :-) I leave at 5.45!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 19, 2012, 11:13:39 AM
Doesn't everyone use their prequal letter as their screensaver?

Just to show you how caught up in the bubble lenders were, our prequal now is 20% less than what it was back in 2005... but our income now is probably 80% more (and fully documented).

Playing ball tomorrow?? I'll screen print it onto my basketball jersey for tomorrow!

Back reads FCB #168 and the front has the Mortgage Amount = 0, FCB baby!!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 19, 2012, 11:14:11 AM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!

Oh yes, by all means :-)
I am thinking of getting one done and framing it just to put an end to that kind of conversation!

When I run into you, remind me to show you!! I'm gonna carry it in my wallet!  :P



OK, I will carry my tonic with me tonight :-)
BTW, I don't walk dogs. Just saying! Hope you didn't give "I know what you ate for lunch" smile to someone else.
Did you know, we work in the same neighborhood too? (based on your post in the rug discussion)

Shall we carpool?  :D

As long as I don't have to wake you up! :-) I leave at 5.45!

ha! I'm at work by then already!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: fluffy on October 19, 2012, 11:15:55 AM
Doesn't everyone use their prequal letter as their screensaver?

Just to show you how caught up in the bubble lenders were, our prequal now is 20% less than what it was back in 2005... but our income now is probably 80% more (and fully documented).

Playing ball tomorrow?? I'll screen print it onto my basketball jersey for tomorrow!

Back reads FCB #168 and the front has the Mortgage Amount = 0, FCB baby!!

LOL DAS HARDCORE!! I LOSE!!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 19, 2012, 11:18:44 AM
We have to realize our kids will age out of the house by the time we're ready for our ultimate dream homes. ;-) It's like the old saying: How much money is enough? Just a little bit more. For some, the same goes for a home. People are never completely happy - always looking for a little more, a little more. When is enough enough?

My proposal is simple: let's be happy with what we have. Our kids will not care about the size of our garage, the layout, or who the builder was. Think back to your own childhood and if you cared about any of those things. Our happy memories are made of a lot more than that. There are things I wish I could change about the house I bought but I didn't have much choice with such limited selection and not wanting to become house-poor. I have no plans to move up even if there money burning a hole in my pocket. Buy a rental, sure, but I will make this my happy little home at least until I need to downsize for retirement. It doesn't have to be big to be cute or impressive. It has features I enjoy and that's good enough. More than that, I hate moving.  :) Any extra money that comes my way will be better spent in other areas. It may not be the nicest home of all my friends, but it certainly could be worse.
While this is true... there are some things you want that have nothing to do with size of home. We would be happy with the size of our current place (and floorplan) but in a different location... and a bigger backyard.

We both have large extended families and it would nice if we could entertain them with a large outdoor area making up for a small indoors... but in Irvine... large lots = 3CWG = driveway... ie... extinct or expensive.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 19, 2012, 11:19:42 AM
Yes... will be there tomorrow... let's try to team up again.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 19, 2012, 11:24:19 AM
Yes... will be there tomorrow... let's try to team up again.

let's!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: SoCal on October 19, 2012, 11:27:36 AM
So I can give you my 714 home number? ;-)
Kids will be happy wherever they are. Those of us who had kids early will end up buying a bigger house when they start locking up themselves in their bedrooms, and don't visit the great rooms below. Same goes with a car I guess.. But on the plus side, we might have an untouched face at their graduation.. showing happiness like we mean it :-)

Absolutely, I'll still keep you in my contacts list if you're 714. There are more important things in life. My feelings for someone does not fluctuate depending on digits - area code, pay stub, weight in pounds, and all the other numbers discussed on TI daily. I think we are in the minority here since we both became parents at a younger age. We definitely have a different set of circumstances to consider. We will get a second childhood very soon!... and be young enough to enjoy it.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 19, 2012, 11:36:25 AM
I think we are in the minority here since we both became parents at a younger age. We definitely have a different set of circumstances to consider. We will get a second childhood very soon!... and be young enough to enjoy it.

:-) Hike up the Andes! There will be money, hopefully to travel around the world and kids will NOT move in with us.
More of a second youth!- I would rather not have the childhood, and listen to them parents again.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: The California Court Company on October 19, 2012, 11:41:57 AM
I cannot see "move uppers" when the unemployment/under employed rate of college graduates are at all time high. It must suck for the new grads nowadays looking to buy a starter home and settle down without any major help from parents. For working people who has been quite established  with stable income, it is a great time to buy...

TIC pretty much sees this trend that's why they are building tons of apartments near 405 and super condensed starter homes in Irvine North.


So Cal and CZ have pretty clear vision on the issue. Low inventory is a combination of "Why should I move since I've got this great 3.50% rate?" and "Why should I sell when I'm only going to re-buy at a higher price?". I can't see moving down as an option because what's to move down to other than a rental? Where are those Temp homes to buy we're reading about? Rental monthly payments are getting closer to a house payment every day. IR said in the West Irvine area - 2000+ homes - there were only 3 listings. What will cause that market to shift quickly from "stay putters" to "mover uppers"? Not much that I can see.

Is there a compelling reason to sell and buy? I can see the sell and rent argument winning at this point which won't increase the transaction count by much.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: SoCal on October 19, 2012, 08:00:44 PM
I could probably sell my Irvine home and buy a larger home in Foothill Ranch for just a little bit more.

Prove it. Dooooo it.  :)

I'm tempted to say you guys would love it here but I realize how nose picky you are, so I can't commit to that. I'll just say I'm choosy and I really like it here.

Inventory here is tight! However, 3CWG in your price range is no prob, Bob.

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 19, 2012, 08:20:18 PM
higher prequal = SWAG!!!

I'm going to carry around my prequal letter and show my peeps!!

Oh yes, by all means :-)
I am thinking of getting one done and framing it just to put an end to that kind of conversation!

When I run into you, remind me to show you!! I'm gonna carry it in my wallet!  :P



OK, I will carry my tonic with me tonight :-)
BTW, I don't walk dogs. Just saying! Hope you didn't give "I know what you ate for lunch" smile to someone else.
Did you know, we work in the same neighborhood too? (based on your post in the rug discussion)

Shall we carpool?  :D

As long as I don't have to wake you up! :-) I leave at 5.45!

ha! I'm at work by then already!
I barely get up that early when I want to do some day trading.  Are you guys on east coast time or something???
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 19, 2012, 09:06:49 PM
 ;)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 21, 2012, 09:59:43 AM

I barely get up that early when I want to do some day trading.  Are you guys on east coast time or something???

Don't know about Homer, but I am on crazy mommy time :)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 21, 2012, 10:20:06 AM
What happened in 92602? They were waiting for USC to buy so that they could mark the bottom??

Only 12 properties show up on the search, four are foreclosed and not listed, three are from a different zipcode, and one is a bit overpriced going by the comps. Wowzer! Lets call it a recovery :)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: guava on October 23, 2012, 02:48:42 PM

OMG
Irvine Home Inventory less than 325 today
Will it sink below 300 ?
As of 5:55pm, we are down to 302 active listings in Irvine (that includes some new home listings...with the new homes we are down to 265 active listings).  We go below 300 very soon.

It is official now.

The inventory just break the 300 level today.

The low inventory will drive the price back to $400/ per SQ in near future.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 23, 2012, 03:00:10 PM

OMG
Irvine Home Inventory less than 325 today
Will it sink below 300 ?
As of 5:55pm, we are down to 302 active listings in Irvine (that includes some new home listings...with the new homes we are down to 265 active listings).  We go below 300 very soon.

It is official now.

The inventory just break the 300 level today.

The low inventory will drive the price back to $400/ per SQ in near future.
Make that 283 as of 2:45pm.  QH SFR prices are already over $400/sf and heading to $450/sf. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 23, 2012, 03:24:08 PM

OMG
Irvine Home Inventory less than 325 today
Will it sink below 300 ?
As of 5:55pm, we are down to 302 active listings in Irvine (that includes some new home listings...with the new homes we are down to 265 active listings).  We go below 300 very soon.

It is official now.

The inventory just break the 300 level today.

The low inventory will drive the price back to $400/ per SQ in near future.

Fingers crossed  :D
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: qwerty on October 23, 2012, 03:29:16 PM
how fast has the price risen? seems bubblicious? is it a smart thing to buy right now what happened last time? Although irvine on average dropoed what what 20-25%? 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 23, 2012, 03:42:20 PM
how fast has the price risen? seems bubblicious? is it a smart thing to buy right now what happened last time? Although irvine on average dropoed what what 20-25%? 
Prices arent heading up that fast because of strict lending standards, but you are seeing people bid up to get a home because they are running into multiple counters left and right.  I'd say prices are up 5-10% on average since the start of the year (higher in some parts and lower in others).  Also, rents are beginning to tick up at a decent rate of 4-5% since this time last year.  So if you add that to mortgage rates dropping then it's not as bubblicious as it used to be.  Remember, we don't have those crazy no doc loans or option arms.  The people who are bidding up the homes are buyers who are putting a lot more than 20% down (if not all cash). 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 23, 2012, 03:46:19 PM
I better shine the floor.. Heading to $400/sf, it deserves more attention that it's getting. I will buy everyone blue velvet foot covering so that we don't accidentally disrespect the Lord of Equity.

USC, been listening that lending is easing up as well..
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 23, 2012, 04:01:43 PM
I better shine the floor.. Heading to $400/sf, it deserves more attention that it's getting. I will buy everyone blue velvet foot covering so that we don't accidentally disrespect the Lord of Equity.

USC, been listening that lending is easing up as well..
Well I did a refi and can tell you that they racked me over the coals with more letters of explanations than I can count.  They ticked and tied every deposit over $500.  But I am not the average borrower, I have a lot of stuff on my tax return.  You can get an 80-10-10 loan if the first is under $417k so I'm sure things have loosened up somewhat.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 23, 2012, 04:26:50 PM
Property Tax statement came in the mail.. $$$ increase. Another sign of sorts that the bottom is long over?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: qwerty on October 23, 2012, 04:28:48 PM
Property Tax statement came in the mail.. $$$ increase. Another sign of sorts that the bottom is long over?

did you ever get statements without an increase?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on October 23, 2012, 04:36:41 PM
Property Tax statement came in the mail.. $$$ increase. Another sign of sorts that the bottom is long over?

did you ever get statements without an increase?

Past three years the increase was only $$..
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on October 23, 2012, 07:02:24 PM
Property Tax statement came in the mail.. $$$ increase. Another sign of sorts that the bottom is long over?

did you ever get statements without an increase?

Past three years the increase was only $$..

Mine went down.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: The California Court Company on October 23, 2012, 07:53:19 PM
what's the reason behind dwindling inventory count?

1. lackluster job market reduces number of people looking to switch job and move
2. super low interest rate that makes leasing out a better option than selling
3. more local buyers due to the low interest rate
4. more FCBs as they are making inflation hedge or money laundering
5. election season Obama and HUD is holding the inventory back
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 24, 2012, 04:59:37 PM
what's the reason behind dwindling inventory count?

1. lackluster job market reduces number of people looking to switch job and move
2. super low interest rate that makes leasing out a better option than selling
3. more local buyers due to the low interest rate
4. more FCBs as they are making inflation hedge or money laundering
5. election season Obama and HUD is holding the inventory back

Add the HARP 2.0 refi program to the list.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: guava on December 12, 2012, 01:31:20 PM

OMG
Irvine Home Inventory less than 325 today
Will it sink below 300 ?

According to IHB ,
Irvine Home Inventory is 225 as Dec 12, 2012.

Will it sink below 200 ?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 12, 2012, 02:02:44 PM

OMG
Irvine Home Inventory less than 325 today
Will it sink below 300 ?

According to IHB ,
Irvine Home Inventory is 225 as Dec 12, 2012.

Will it sink below 200 ?
Actually we are down to 216 as of 1:30pm this afternoon.  Yeah, sure looks like we are heading under 200 in the next few weeks as things are going.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 12, 2012, 03:15:12 PM
When it gets down to 100... I'll list my house... I'll be able to get over listing price easily. :)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: ps9 on December 12, 2012, 03:36:36 PM
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Secret-Gdn-92620/home/5931504

Northwood II just hit a million again

I think I'll change my rental to a for sale sign now
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: iacrenter on December 12, 2012, 03:57:38 PM
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Secret-Gdn-92620/home/5931504

Northwood II just hit a million again

I think I'll change my rental to a for sale sign now

Dang! FCBs back in force.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: ps9 on December 12, 2012, 03:59:36 PM
Dual agent too
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 19, 2012, 08:08:48 PM
We have officially hit inventory levels below 200...199 active listings in Irvine as of 8pm.  That was quicker than I thought.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 19, 2012, 08:27:33 PM
Even the Irvine/Tustin Broker Preview group has put Tustin and Irvine in one document... used to be separate but not enough homes to do that I guess.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: woodburyowner on December 19, 2012, 10:15:37 PM
Dual agent too

Right after this house closed, Monica went around the neighborhood passing around tins of cookies and to advertise the fact that she just sold the house for 1M.  Cookies were expired from last month!  With the dual agent commission, she should have been able to afford cookies that weren't 90% off.... 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: lucky on December 20, 2012, 08:46:12 AM
Is Monica Carr well known to the folks on this board?

She is something of a legend in Portola Springs, specifically in San Carlos, because she sold at least 4 condos there in under a year.

She always draws neighborhood folks in to a "come meet me" open house with cheese and crackers (which surprisingly include pungent onions that always stink up the joint).
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: octrends on December 20, 2012, 01:20:41 PM
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Secret-Gdn-92620/home/5931504

Northwood II just hit a million again

I think I'll change my rental to a for sale sign now

Dang! FCBs back in force.

back in 2005, it was sold for 996k, does it mean that we are back to 2005 prices?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: ps9 on December 20, 2012, 02:15:21 PM
Some of the Northwood 2 homes were well over a million when bought new from CalPac, I don't think we're at '05 bubble prices.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: flipper on December 20, 2012, 04:14:20 PM
Some of the Northwood 2 homes were well over a million when bought new from CalPac, I don't think we're at '05 bubble prices.
Peak price is around $1.2M for this model. Northwood II hasn't fully recovered as there are many similar properties in Woodbury and Portola. Westpark and Turtle rock houses are selling more than 05 bubble prices now.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on December 27, 2012, 11:00:45 AM
201. Anyone want to bet on the end of the year number? Realtors excluded :P

I say we will stay at or above 200 on Dec 31st.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 27, 2012, 01:04:37 PM
188. :)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 27, 2012, 01:17:05 PM
201. Anyone want to bet on the end of the year number? Realtors excluded :P

I say we will stay at or above 200 on Dec 31st.
CZ, inventory levels in Irvine have been below 200 since I posted on the 20th.  We are nearing 190 now.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on December 27, 2012, 02:32:56 PM
201. Anyone want to bet on the end of the year number? Realtors excluded :P

I say we will stay at or above 200 on Dec 31st.
CZ, inventory levels in Irvine have been below 200 since I posted on the 20th.  We are nearing 190 now.

Hmm.. IHB and Redfin still show different numbers..
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 27, 2012, 03:04:32 PM
201. Anyone want to bet on the end of the year number? Realtors excluded :P

I say we will stay at or above 200 on Dec 31st.
CZ, inventory levels in Irvine have been below 200 since I posted on the 20th.  We are nearing 190 now.

Hmm.. IHB and Redfin still show different numbers..
Not sure what is causing the difference, but MLS shows 194 active listings as of 3pm (it's been ranging from 192 to 197 the past week). 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 29, 2012, 12:23:54 PM
188. :)
You might nail it IHO, we are down to 190 active listings now.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 08, 2013, 10:39:34 AM
So did I win? Was 188 the closest to the end of year number?

So ridiculous... remember when people on the IHB were commenting that when inventory hit 700 that Irvine prices were going to freefall because all those homes would hit the market? 700 would actually be nice to see right now... ugh.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 08, 2013, 10:47:27 AM
So did I win? Was 188 the closest to the end of year number?

So ridiculous... remember when people on the IHB were commenting that when inventory hit 700 that Irvine prices were going to freefall because all those homes would hit the market? 700 would actually be nice to see right now... ugh.
The last time I checked MLS before year-end was around 8ish on 12/31/12 and it showed 183 active listings so looks like you won. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on January 08, 2013, 11:01:30 AM
So did I win? Was 188 the closest to the end of year number?

So ridiculous... remember when people on the IHB were commenting that when inventory hit 700 that Irvine prices were going to freefall because all those homes would hit the market? 700 would actually be nice to see right now... ugh.
The last time I checked MLS before year-end was around 8ish on 12/31/12 and it showed 183 active listings so looks like you won.

Good time to sell?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 08, 2013, 11:02:15 AM
Curious...as to whether the lack of inventory is sustainable.  It is the "low" season for real estate...will we see a glut of homes in April/May?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 08, 2013, 11:06:16 AM
So did I win? Was 188 the closest to the end of year number?

So ridiculous... remember when people on the IHB were commenting that when inventory hit 700 that Irvine prices were going to freefall because all those homes would hit the market? 700 would actually be nice to see right now... ugh.
The last time I checked MLS before year-end was around 8ish on 12/31/12 and it showed 183 active listings so looks like you won.

Good time to sell?
It might be a good time to test the market and see how motivated buyers are, if you don't get your price...then you don't sell, it's as easy as that.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 08, 2013, 11:08:33 AM
Curious...as to whether the lack of inventory is sustainable.  It is the "low" season for real estate...will we see a glut of homes in April/May?
Yeah we are in the seasonably low period of inventory, but current inventory levels are over 70% lower than this time last year.  Like I mentioned, there's a good bit of pent up buyer demand out there so increased inventory will be met with buyer demand so I doubt we'll see a "glut" of homes for sale in April/May.  Are inventory levels going to be higher than at that time compared to today, I would think so (and I sure hope so). 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 08, 2013, 11:21:13 AM
Curious...as to whether the lack of inventory is sustainable.  It is the "low" season for real estate...will we see a glut of homes in April/May?
Back at the end of 2011 when inventory was down to the 600s... everyone thought it would go back up once the new year started... then it didn't so they said it would go up in the summer of 2012 and it still didn't.

So who knows what to expect.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 08, 2013, 11:30:04 AM
Curious...as to whether the lack of inventory is sustainable.  It is the "low" season for real estate...will we see a glut of homes in April/May?
Back at the end of 2011 when inventory was down to the 600s... everyone thought it would go back up once the new year started... then it didn't so they said it would go up in the summer of 2012 and it still didn't.

So who knows what to expect.
Yeah, the market did a total 180...I had buyers asking me when more inventory was coming and I would tell them late Spring/Summer.  Boy was I wrong.  haha
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on January 08, 2013, 12:28:00 PM
I'm getting ready to move into my new home soon.. so there might be a "new" listing on the market in a few weeks...

I apologize again USC for not being able to meet up with you to show the GT3... been pretty busy with the kiddo and work... On a side note... I noticed you might get the GT3 soon?  ;)
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 08, 2013, 02:31:22 PM
I'm getting ready to move into my new home soon.. so there might be a "new" listing on the market in a few weeks...

I apologize again USC for not being able to meet up with you to show the GT3... been pretty busy with the kiddo and work... On a side note... I noticed you might get the GT3 soon?  ;)
Yeah, maybe....;)   Let me know when you are free for lunch.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: JasonTheArtist on January 08, 2013, 02:57:33 PM
FYI, I just sold my house to an all cash buyer for 30,000 more that what I paid for it last year. Also, it was only on the market for 4 days before I got multiple offers. This is definitely a good time to sell.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 08, 2013, 03:09:09 PM
FYI, I just sold my house to an all cash buyer for 30,000 more that what I paid for it last year. Also, it was only on the market for 4 days before I got multiple offers. This is definitely a good time to sell.
Where in Irvine was it? Did you buy another?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: JasonTheArtist on January 08, 2013, 03:18:18 PM
FYI, I just sold my house to an all cash buyer for 30,000 more that what I paid for it last year. Also, it was only on the market for 4 days before I got multiple offers. This is definitely a good time to sell.
Where in Irvine was it? Did you buy another?

It's in Orange on Irvine's land next to Peters Canyon. I bought this house on a whim thinking I needed a big house with a big back yard with a pool and spa, etc. Boy was I wrong. I wish someone would have told me, a bigger house=bigger problems. So, I'm packing my bags and buying new in Stonegate. Preferably San Mateo 3.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: zubs on January 09, 2013, 05:31:06 PM
How much blame do investors get for low inventory.  This article on zerohedge points to wallstreet as the reason for low inventory. 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-09/guest-post-america-meet-your-new-slumlord-wall-street

So investors are making deals with banks to buy chunks of realestate even before it hits the MLS.  Perhaps inventory is low because it's getting sold before it hits the market by realestate investor funds.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 09, 2013, 06:27:50 PM
Well... this goes back to shadow inventory also. There is still a number of homes that are REO but are not on the MLS.

From foreclosureradar.com:

(http://charts.foreclosureradar.com/california/orange-county/irvine/inventories-month)

So in November, there were 142 homes that were REO... maybe a realtor can tell us how many REOs are on the MLS.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 09, 2013, 10:30:15 PM
Well... this goes back to shadow inventory also. There is still a number of homes that are REO but are not on the MLS.

From foreclosureradar.com:

(http://charts.foreclosureradar.com/california/orange-county/irvine/inventories-month)

So in November, there were 142 homes that were REO... maybe a realtor can tell us how many REOs are on the MLS.

We have all of 4 active REO listings and 10 REOs in escrow. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: woodburyowner on January 13, 2013, 10:32:26 AM
Some of the Northwood 2 homes were well over a million when bought new from CalPac, I don't think we're at '05 bubble prices.
Peak price is around $1.2M for this model. Northwood II hasn't fully recovered as there are many similar properties in Woodbury and Portola. Westpark and Turtle rock houses are selling more than 05 bubble prices now.

Looks like one of these $1.2M models just went on the market and went pending within a few days!  26 Bamboo.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Bamboo-92620/home/5931594

I believe a flipper purchased this property at auction last month and it probably making a healthy profit.  Anyone know the auction price?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 13, 2013, 11:35:33 AM
Some of the Northwood 2 homes were well over a million when bought new from CalPac, I don't think we're at '05 bubble prices.
Peak price is around $1.2M for this model. Northwood II hasn't fully recovered as there are many similar properties in Woodbury and Portola. Westpark and Turtle rock houses are selling more than 05 bubble prices now.

Looks like one of these $1.2M models just went on the market and went pending within a few days!  26 Bamboo.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Bamboo-92620/home/5931594

I believe a flipper purchased this property at auction last month and it probably making a healthy profit.  Anyone know the auction price?
Flipper picked it up for $860k (opening bid was $730k) at the foreclosure auction on 12/3/12.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on January 13, 2013, 11:41:34 AM
Some of the Northwood 2 homes were well over a million when bought new from CalPac, I don't think we're at '05 bubble prices.
Peak price is around $1.2M for this model. Northwood II hasn't fully recovered as there are many similar properties in Woodbury and Portola. Westpark and Turtle rock houses are selling more than 05 bubble prices now.

Looks like one of these $1.2M models just went on the market and went pending within a few days!  26 Bamboo.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Bamboo-92620/home/5931594

I believe a flipper purchased this property at auction last month and it probably making a healthy profit.  Anyone know the auction price?
Flipper picked it up for $860k (opening bid was $730k) at the foreclosure auction on 12/3/12.

And the career "flipper" takes off again! Qualifications: Intuition, Conviction and Cash to Invest.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 13, 2013, 11:59:16 AM
On a positive note, inventory had a nice blip up...we went from about 180 homes at the low to 210 homes now.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on January 13, 2013, 12:29:37 PM
It's seasonally adjusted right? Lot of people wait for the new year to list the property..
Seriously, for some with time, money and expertise, things are looking up again in Real Estate. Don't you think so?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: woodburyowner on January 25, 2013, 11:35:15 AM
Looks like one of these $1.2M models just went on the market and went pending within a few days!  26 Bamboo.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Bamboo-92620/home/5931594

I believe a flipper purchased this property at auction last month and it probably making a healthy profit.  Anyone know the auction price?
Flipper picked it up for $860k (opening bid was $730k) at the foreclosure auction on 12/3/12.

Completed sale just got updated on MLS.   Cash buyer at asking price of 1.018 million.  The flipper made some good money on this transaction - only had to hold the property for 6 weeks!  Crazy times...
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 25, 2013, 11:39:21 AM
Looks like one of these $1.2M models just went on the market and went pending within a few days!  26 Bamboo.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Bamboo-92620/home/5931594

I believe a flipper purchased this property at auction last month and it probably making a healthy profit.  Anyone know the auction price?
Flipper picked it up for $860k (opening bid was $730k) at the foreclosure auction on 12/3/12.

Completed sale just got updated on MLS.   Cash buyer at asking price of 1.018 million.  The flipper made some good money on this transaction - only had to hold the property for 6 weeks!  Crazy times...
It's a good time to be a seller/flipper. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 25, 2013, 11:41:34 AM
It's seasonally adjusted right? Lot of people wait for the new year to list the property..
Seriously, for some with time, money and expertise, things are looking up again in Real Estate. Don't you think so?
The real estate industry is picking up and so some people will benefit from that pick up.  For agents, if inventory levels remain low like they are now it will begin to decrease the volume of transactions.  I'm noticing that the only sellers out there now are the move-down sellers.  I've noticed that several listings state (in the agent comments) that the sale of the listing is contingenty upon the seller finding a property.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irv81 on January 29, 2013, 05:26:06 PM
is now not a good time to purchase in irvine anymore due to low inventory?  is it perhaps better to wait for new homes and wait for prices to drop? ???
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: daedalus on January 29, 2013, 05:39:20 PM
It's a good time to be a seller/flipper. 
Apparently true for us northerners as well.  Take a look at the last sale closed date.  Unless there's more to the story, this is just ridiculous.  Some shenanigans going on based on the listing price before the last sale.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Manhattan-Beach/4114-The-Strand-90266/home/17229283
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 02, 2013, 07:21:20 AM
Based on my Redfin alerts... it seems there is small uptick in homes getting listed.

Is it a combination of the seasonal new year sales and taking advantage of low inventory to get a better price?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on February 02, 2013, 09:35:12 AM
Based on my Redfin alerts... it seems there is small uptick in homes getting listed.

Is it a combination of the seasonal new year sales and taking advantage of low inventory to get a better price?

Ding ding ding... We have a winner!!!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 02, 2013, 09:39:33 AM
Based on my Redfin alerts... it seems there is small uptick in homes getting listed.

Is it a combination of the seasonal new year sales and taking advantage of low inventory to get a better price?
I think it's a little of both, homes are still flying into escrow though so buyer demand continues to stay strong. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Thermofoil on February 05, 2013, 11:03:04 PM
Based on my Redfin alerts... it seems there is small uptick in homes getting listed.

Is it a combination of the seasonal new year sales and taking advantage of low inventory to get a better price?

Taking advantage of low inventory and low interest rates that will not last. Now is the perfect window for sellers. They will not be able to get the same prices once interest rates pick back up, which is imminent. The mini-bubble will deflate and prices will go back to their end 2010, 2011 levels. Sellers are realizing that and taking full advantage of it. I'd do the same if I had to sell my home.
My 2 cents.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: zubs on February 06, 2013, 10:26:07 AM
Wait a min!  I thought the Bernanke said he would use the full power of the fed to hold interests low atleast until 2015.  So you're saying that the Bernanke with the full power of the fed will not be able to hold interest rates at 3% for 2 more years?

You are betting against US government policy?  If Romney had won, maybe the interest rates would creep up, but we got the other guy.  How long has Japan been at 2% interest rates?  15 years?

Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on February 20, 2013, 07:19:00 AM
Are the inventory levels still pretty low?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 20, 2013, 09:45:45 AM
Are the inventory levels still pretty low?
Yep... according to the IHB ZipRealty chart, 211.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on February 20, 2013, 09:59:22 AM
Are the inventory levels still pretty low?
Yep... according to the IHB ZipRealty chart, 211.

That doesn't count pending sales ;-)
USC and IR will come up with a better number.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 20, 2013, 10:49:49 AM
Are the inventory levels still pretty low?
Yep... according to the IHB ZipRealty chart, 211.

That doesn't count pending sales ;-)
USC and IR will come up with a better number.
There are 208 active listings in Irvine as of 10:30am today.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: JasonTheArtist on February 20, 2013, 01:59:34 PM
Isn't there usually a spike in inventory in the summer time?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 20, 2013, 02:03:23 PM
Isn't there usually a spike in inventory in the summer time?
Usually... but no real big one last summer. Inventory has been slowly dwindling since mid 2011.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: JasonTheArtist on February 20, 2013, 02:18:30 PM
Isn't there usually a spike in inventory in the summer time?
Usually... but no real big one last summer. Inventory has been slowly dwindling since mid 2011.

With Heritage fields, Cypress village, Portola springs, and the rest of Stonegate, as well as surrounding cities' (Rancho Mission Viejo) communities releasing new homes this summer, I would think this summer is going to have a high number.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 28, 2013, 10:59:40 PM
Isn't there usually a spike in inventory in the summer time?
Usually... but no real big one last summer. Inventory has been slowly dwindling since mid 2011.

With Heritage fields, Cypress village, Portola springs, and the rest of Stonegate, as well as surrounding cities' (Rancho Mission Viejo) communities releasing new homes this summer, I would think this summer is going to have a high number.
Those homes better get the to market fast because we are back down to 190 active listings as of today (down from about 220 about 3-4 weeks ago). 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 14, 2013, 08:57:30 AM
Has the inventory blipped upwards yet?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on March 14, 2013, 09:15:26 AM
198, as per IHB. USC and IR know the exact number..
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 14, 2013, 10:30:25 AM
As soon as homes hit the market, others get sold.

Too many buyers out there before we see a significant uptick in inventory numbers. This last 2 years or so of dwindling inventory has built up a backlog of demand, even new homes sales are moving through phases quicker than before.

Other than high unemployment, with the Dow breaking records, feels very familiar.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 14, 2013, 10:42:57 AM
As soon as homes hit the market, others get sold.

Too many buyers out there before we see a significant uptick in inventory numbers. This last 2 years or so of dwindling inventory has built up a backlog of demand, even new homes sales are moving through phases quicker than before.

Other than high unemployment, with the Dow breaking records, feels very familiar.

That's a great observation.  Not many people were talking about the lack of inventory 2 years ago, but it was already happening back then.  We started looking in June 2010 after the tax credit expired.  There was more inventory than now, but so much of it was distressed / flawed / fixer-upper stuff that it really didn't feel like much to choose from even back then.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: gld2 on March 14, 2013, 10:44:03 AM
feels very familiar before the crash??? ::)

Other than high unemployment, with the Dow breaking records, feels very familiar.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on March 14, 2013, 11:04:22 AM
feels very familiar before the crash??? ::)

Other than high unemployment, with the Dow breaking records, feels very familiar.

Yeapppppppp
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 14, 2013, 11:51:47 AM
198, as per IHB. USC and IR know the exact number..
As of 11am today, we are back down to 193 active listings in Irvine.  That little blip up in inventory didn't last very long.  haha
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 14, 2013, 12:13:24 PM
feels very familiar before the crash??? ::)

Other than high unemployment, with the Dow breaking records, feels very familiar.
One big difference between the crash and today is that most of the purchases are being bought with buyers who put down significant down payments or all cash.  Folks who are putting down less than 20% or using FHA/VA loans are having a real hard time competing against all cash or large down payment buyers since the sellers have so many buyers to choose from.  It's still a pain in the behind to get a loan done today as the lenders are strict.  I would say that today's buyers can withstand good sized price decreases before they are even close to being underwater. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 14, 2013, 12:29:31 PM
feels very familiar before the crash??? ::)

Other than high unemployment, with the Dow breaking records, feels very familiar.
One big difference between the crash and today is that most of the purchases are being bought with buyers who put down significant down payments or all cash.  Folks who are putting down less than 20% or using FHA/VA loans are having a real hard time competing against all cash or large down payment buyers since the sellers have so many buyers to choose from.  It's still a pain in the behind to get a loan done today as the lenders are strict.  I would say that today's buyers can withstand good sized price decreases before they are even close to being underwater.

Have you noticed a change in appraiser behavior now that it's clear we are in a rising market?  They are supposed to take reasonable price increases into account when coming up with their values, although the way the incentives are aligned, it's still safer/easier for them not to.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 14, 2013, 12:35:07 PM
feels very familiar before the crash??? ::)

Other than high unemployment, with the Dow breaking records, feels very familiar.
One big difference between the crash and today is that most of the purchases are being bought with buyers who put down significant down payments or all cash.  Folks who are putting down less than 20% or using FHA/VA loans are having a real hard time competing against all cash or large down payment buyers since the sellers have so many buyers to choose from.  It's still a pain in the behind to get a loan done today as the lenders are strict.  I would say that today's buyers can withstand good sized price decreases before they are even close to being underwater.

Have you noticed a change in appraiser behavior now that it's clear we are in a rising market?  They are supposed to take reasonable price increases into account when coming up with their values, although the way the incentives are aligned, it's still safer/easier for them not to.
I haven't run into an major appraisal issues in the past 3 months.  I think it depends on the appraiser on how they come up with the adjustments (price trends, upgrades, location, lot size, etc) for the ultimate value.  Most of my buyers put down 30-50% so even if the appraisal came in a little short, I don't think it would be a big issue. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 14, 2013, 12:48:31 PM
I haven't seen any press releases from CAR or NAR lambasting appraisers for doing their jobs lately.  I wonder if that's a sign things are easing up a bit.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 14, 2013, 12:51:35 PM
I haven't seen any press releases from CAR or NAR lambasting appraisers for doing their jobs lately.  I wonder if that's a sign things are easing up a bit.
You are seeing a few lenders offer 80/10/10 loans again and I'm noticing more banks offering HELOCs so I think lending as loosened up a bit.  The underwriting side of things is still very strict and they are very thorough nowadays. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: jayl23 on March 14, 2013, 01:08:27 PM
I haven't seen any press releases from CAR or NAR lambasting appraisers for doing their jobs lately.  I wonder if that's a sign things are easing up a bit.
You are seeing a few lenders offer 80/10/10 loans again and I'm noticing more banks offering HELOCs so I think lending as loosened up a bit.  The underwriting side of things is still very strict and they are very thorough nowadays.

With the occasional NINJA here and there....  ;)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-05/ninjas-are-back-buy-life-insurance-get-no-doc-mortgage-loan-free
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 17, 2013, 08:20:11 AM
I think the biggest problem with low inventory is there is almost no room for haggling in nicer areas.

The list price is usually what most of the competing offers will be, if not higher. I've come across a few stories where they told me that offered above list or sold above list in the last few months... so bad.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 17, 2013, 12:04:48 PM
I think the biggest problem with low inventory is there is almost no room for haggling in nicer areas.

The list price is usually what most of the competing offers will be, if not higher. I've come across a few stories where they told me that offered above list or sold above list in the last few months... so bad.
The other problem that it causes is that a perspective sell will see a similar home close in their tract and they will price their listing at what that home closed for plus a premium. 
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Fire blade on March 17, 2013, 02:00:41 PM
Just drove by a short sale in my neighbourhood. Atleast 40 people in line to go inside the house. Even more outside in cars waiting. It's insane...boy am I glad I bought last year...

Serenity now..Insanity later!
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Panda on March 17, 2013, 04:42:04 PM
Iho, did you ever buy your new irvine home or are u still at the same house that used to be a rental?

Give me a update. What's happening in the irvine housing market these days? Are u interested to know how I have been investing in real estate in the last 2 years?

Hehe.... I missed u  :-*
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 17, 2013, 04:48:12 PM
Iho, did you ever buy your new irvine home or are u still at the same house that used to be a rental?

Give me a update. What's happening in the irvine housing market these days? Are u interested to know how I have been investing in real estate in the last 2 years?

Hehe.... I missed u  :-*
Still in my used-to-be-a-rental home.

I think we waited too long... prices are going up a little now and new home prices are too high.

Irvine seems a bit bubblicious again because of the low inventory and low rates... a 2200sf home in new Woodbridge project started at $970k last week and sold out first phase of 12 homes (their website now says starting in the low $1mil... bleh).

So how is Johns?
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Panda on March 17, 2013, 05:38:04 PM
Iho, what is your plan now? 

Looking back it appears that the 2010 woodbury collection was the bottom. I have no doubt I made the right decision. Just refinanced my primary loan for 3.375%. Hopefully this will be the last. I purchased one new rental and already made back my down payment. My return is 51% for this rental and bought another 4bed sfr for 191k which should give me 36% return. Having a broker license is really awesome as it pays for your entire closing cost and anything left over I bring less to closing. I am looking to acquire another this year but there is nothing left under 200k anymore.

Iho, life is too short and I realized that when my dad passed last year. In 5 years, I plan to work from monday thru thursday and and take a 3 day weekend. Dont sell yourself too short, you deserve a much better lifestyle for all the hard work.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Panda on March 17, 2013, 05:39:04 PM
Iho, what is your plan now? 

Looking back it appears that the 2010 woodbury collection was the bottom. I have no doubt I made the right decision. Just refinanced my primary loan for 3.375%. Hopefully this will be the last. I purchased one new rental and already made back my down payment. My return is 51% for this rental and bought another 4bed sfr for 191k which should give me 36% return. Having a broker license is really awesome as it pays for your entire closing cost and anything left over I bring less to closing. I am looking to acquire another this year but there is nothing left under 200k anymore in johns creek..

Iho, life is too short and I realized that when my dad passed last year. In 5 years, I plan to work from monday thru thursday and and take a 3 day weekend. Dont sell yourself too short, you deserve a much better lifestyle for all the hard work.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 17, 2013, 10:48:45 PM
Yeah... tough to be a real estate mogul in inflated areas. Good to hear things are working out for you.

Not really sure if 2010 was the bottom... there were some good buys between 2010 and 2012... just not exactly what we were looking for.

It's tough to be a picky in a low inventory market... but at least we saved up money for the last few years... retirement funds are in much better shape than before. Our goal is to try to get one of us to be home at least part-time by 2015... we'll see how that goes.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: SoCal on March 18, 2013, 08:59:00 AM
Nice job, Baby Irvine! I agree with you and am happy for you.
Title: Re: Low inventory?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 19, 2013, 10:31:42 AM
Rising prices make everybody an investing genius.  ;)
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