Talk Irvine

General => Real Estate => Irvine Real Estate => Topic started by: zovall on February 02, 2012, 05:53:46 AM

Title: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: zovall on February 02, 2012, 05:53:46 AM
Blog post here:
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/to-catch-a-falling-knife (http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/to-catch-a-falling-knife)
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 02, 2012, 09:18:56 AM
I really like that article... nice job CZ.

It's funny because we do the same type of tracking... there have a been a few homes that we were "It closed that low?" or "I can't believe it got that high!".

The ones that close lower than we expect make us wonder if we should have offered but at least we know those will now be the comps for similar homes so we're not too bent over it.

The ones that close higher than what we expect give us relief in a sort of "That was above what we wanted to pay anyways".
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: IndieDev on February 02, 2012, 09:41:41 AM
Some of those were horribly priced. I'm especially surprised at 256 Monroe #50. Someone actually paid $400,000 for that one within the past 6 months?

Stupidity.
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 02, 2012, 09:57:06 AM
I'm glad that I sold my Quail Hill Irvine condo when I did.  It closed in Oct. 2008 for $620k.  Today you can buy a condo with the same floor plan for $540k-$550k.  Looks like the buyer took a bit of a hit.
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: IndieDev on February 02, 2012, 10:32:47 AM
Yeah that's about the hit many neighborhood are taking from 2008-2009 (around 15%).

I have a friend who owns a dental practice who bought in Westpark II for $630,000 for a 3/2 stucco box on a motorcourt, of course against my sane advice at the time.

Fast forward to 2011-2012, different home, same model, closed 2 months ago for $510,000. That's over $100,000 in lost equity right there. Equivalent to a slightly used...:

(http://www.astonmartin.com/cars/db9-coupe/gallery/rga_astonmartin_cars_beauty_db9coupe_01.jpg)

He drives a leased BMW 328i right now.  ???
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: waitin4ever on February 02, 2012, 02:02:52 PM
Really a fantastic post.
Thanks, Zovall & CZ.

Blog post here:
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/to-catch-a-falling-knife (http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/to-catch-a-falling-knife)
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: akim997 on February 02, 2012, 02:14:13 PM
some of the numbers are a bit off.   For example, the $385K listing price for 97 sapphire is a bottom of the barrell short sale price, where as general area comps would slate it above $400.   overall though, good view points and it gets the point across.   

being a bargain hunter (not by choice, but by economic condition), we've looked at and bid on many houses.   i'd say most have retained their value (but we started looking in mid 2009), but some have dropped.   
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 02, 2012, 02:42:37 PM
some of the numbers are a bit off.   For example, the $385K listing price for 97 sapphire is a bottom of the barrell short sale price, where as general area comps would slate it above $400.   overall though, good view points and it gets the point across.   

being a bargain hunter (not by choice, but by economic condition), we've looked at and bid on many houses.   i'd say most have retained their value (but we started looking in mid 2009), but some have dropped.   
Newer SFRs within the more desirable neighborhoods like Quail Hill, Turtle Ridge, and Northwood Pointe have seems to hold up the best in terms of pricing.  Attached condos have taken the biggest hits (like my former QH condo).
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on February 02, 2012, 04:04:33 PM
Attached home is taking a biggest hit because the new attached projects are much denser and the footage is similar to your condo. Benchmark price for a condo is lower because the project is just so much denser. The appraiser of your condo is comparing purely footage without taking into the account of the lower density often meant a higher quality of life with a fewer units. That is unfortunate but there is no tangible way to quantify external environment, privacy and quality of life. I prefer your condo over any of the new condo anytime.
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: zovall on February 02, 2012, 04:56:44 PM
Really a fantastic post.
Thanks, Zovall & CZ.

Blog post here:
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/to-catch-a-falling-knife (http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/to-catch-a-falling-knife)

This was all CZ's idea - great job CZ!  If anyone has other ideas or wants to write a blog post, let me know!
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: ahbrownell on February 02, 2012, 11:28:10 PM
Great article. I found that informative and a great read. I forwarded it to 3 other people. Well done!
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on February 07, 2012, 05:55:26 PM
Thank you everyone for the comments on the article. I tried replying today, and looks like commenting is closed..

Akim, I agree- Sapphire is a short sale.
But once it sells for that price, the equity sales will have a hard time going above 400k for that floor plan. The house seems to be in great condition for a short sale except for the location (261). Also, there are two more houses in the neighborhood- 77 Sapphire and 65 Sapphire listed below 400k. Same issue with them- location! So I am guessing the kind of sale didn't influence as much as the location influenced the price here.

17 Chandon is listed for 409k, and 18 Starwood, another approved short sale in the area away from the toll road is listed for 407k.
I think if listed now, 11 Sagamore would sell between 400-410k, nowhere near the 525k I had offered.
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on February 07, 2012, 06:04:44 PM
Well done. A great journey back over the pitfalls that could have been.

Remember: Buy today before you get priced out forever! (insert Kool-Aid graphic OHHHH YEAH!!!)   8)

SGIP
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: Cubic Zirconia on February 07, 2012, 06:14:24 PM
"This is the worst Irvine will ever see"
"Market is recovering, I just closed two sales at listing price"
"We got multiple offers already"
The Kool-Aid never stops! Drink up, and join the crowd :-) Maricopa homes are almost sold out..
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: irvinehomeshopper on February 07, 2012, 06:36:37 PM

 Maricopa homes are almost sold out..

I feel sorry for the homeowners having to see and hear dump trucks daily for the next 3 decades. Even the filthy trash from Santa Ana get dumped there.
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: zovall on February 07, 2012, 07:20:30 PM
Thank you everyone for the comments on the article. I tried replying today, and looks like commenting is closed..

Comments are reopened and will be open until Saturday. :)
Title: Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 08, 2012, 11:12:35 AM
I'm actually curious to hear from people who purchased a home --- do you still pay attention to listings and prices much?  Or at all?  I look back to how obsessed I was with home prices for the 5 years leading up to our fall 2010 purchase, and could not be further from that place now. 

Which makes another point --- I see so many people discussing their home search here who are completely obsessed with buying at the absolute lowest price and perfect rate....and while all that is fine, in my opinion focusing on the absolute perfect HOME is more important.  It is probably very rare that all things will align for you:  Perfect home, perfect timing, and perfect pricing.  As someone that has been through the experience and now 18 months removed from it, I can confirm getting the perfect home (your dream home) will far outweigh those other factors in the long run.  As long as you buy something you can truly afford.

We purchased toward the end of the 2010 rally, when prices took a little bounce.  Although I don't pay much attention to either current listings or Zillow, I'd say our home has lost at least another 5% since then.  But you know, I really could care less.  Because it was the perfect home in the perfect location and at the perfect time.  We stumbled into a pretty good interest rate in fall 2010 as well, but that was not at all our deciding factor.  It was just our time, and this was just our house.

So if you have not purchased yet, certainly pay attention to pricing --- but not at the cost of the home you want.  Get the home you love, and you will be happy with the price you paid as long as you can afford it.  But I could see settling or compromising on the home just to save a few bucks up front may have the potential to leave you with some buyers remorse regardless of how good a "deal" you got.
I'm quoting this in case the Post Deletion Fairy shows up. :P

Totally agree with this sentiment... once we find the place we want, in the location we want, for how much we can afford... I'm not going to worry too much about prices dropping. We probably should have stayed where we were in 2008 (probably only a 5% drop since then) but at least we were able to use that extra money to increase our savings and get things for our family without worrying about the higher mortgage payment.
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