Talk Irvine

General => Economy & Finance => Topic started by: jvna on October 25, 2011, 02:57:04 PM

Title: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: jvna on October 25, 2011, 02:57:04 PM
It seems that Neflix's earning's announcement (noting the 800,000 subscriber loss) was pretty bad and analysts' outlook is pretty bad for the company.  Do you think Netflix will die?  I know a ton of people that are subscribers and some have dropped cable/satellite for it.  Thoughts?

http://techland.time.com/2011/10/25/financial-analysts-declare-netflix-broken-and-suffering-nuclear-winter/
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 25, 2011, 03:14:51 PM
I wouldn't count Netflix out.

They still are the leader in streaming/mail services and are installed in a variety of devices.

Tech stock analysts/investors are very fickle. When Apple announced the 4S and then Jobs died the next day, AAPL dropped to $375, then when pre-order figures were published a week later, it jumped to $420... then they reported lower than expected earnings, back to $390s and now it's hovering around $400.

At $77, this is the lowest NFLX has been in over a year... and for some that may signal a buy... but we'll see... this drop is huge but it's seems to also be fueled by the typical sell-off panic of a previously hot stock. If you want to hedge, you may want to look at Coinstar (CSTR), they own Redbox and their stock seems to oppose NFLX when it comes to drastic changes in stock prices (but I warn you... I'm only Warren Buffet on the Internet).

Personally, we love Netflix. That's why the price change meant nothing to us. Considering how much we pay for cable and how much we use Netflix, it's a bargain. And we can't get cable in the car or at a restaurant. Plus... if you've noticed... there are no more Blockbusters in Irvine.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: jvna on October 25, 2011, 03:20:40 PM
I'm wondering how Netflix will convince subscribers to pay for the higher cost that is being imposed on them by the content providers.  If the studios are demanding more for their libraries, Netflix needs to somehow generate more revenue or pass on the costs.  Subscribers aren't liking the increased subscriber fees.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 25, 2011, 03:56:01 PM
They arent going out of business but the stock is going to $40.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on October 25, 2011, 03:57:10 PM
i canceled netflix about a year or two ago.  When Cox started offering movies on demand is when i canceled netflix. with netflix i would get the movies and they would sit next to the TV for weeks or even months, so we would actually lose money.  We have subsequently switched to direct tv, now we can buy a movie in the living room and if we start falling asleep we can continue it in the bedroom (we only have one dvd player in the living room). I think cox offers the home networking now as well.  But the ON demand capabilities of the cable/satellite providers is what caused us to pull the plug on netflix. there was also a waiting list on occasion for the good movies and i hated that.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 25, 2011, 04:01:46 PM
@qwerty:

Did you ever use the streaming? I haven't watched a Netflix DVD in like 8 months.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on October 25, 2011, 04:52:40 PM
@qwerty:

Did you ever use the streaming? I haven't watched a Netflix DVD in like 8 months.

I did on my computer, not on the TV (dont have a netflix enabled dvd/tv).  The quality was good and the streaming was fine, the problem was the selection. If they had a better selection i would reconsider joining but until that happens ill just stick with on demand.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 27, 2011, 04:51:18 PM
Hmm... has the freefall stopped? Seems to be holding at around $80.

In other news, RedBox is upping their DVD rental to $1.20 from $1.00... maybe you should hold off on CSTR.  :-X
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 27, 2011, 05:20:19 PM
Hmm... has the freefall stopped? Seems to be holding at around $80.

In other news, RedBox is upping their DVD rental to $1.20 from $1.00... maybe you should hold off on CSTR.  :-X
I sold 10 weekly $90 NFLX call options this week right after earnings to make a few bucks.  I'm gonna cash out tomorrow so my funds are all in cash ready for my home purchase.  ;)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: jvna on October 28, 2011, 09:52:46 AM
So how will Netflix retain/gain more subscribers without infuriating them by upping subscription fees?  They've got to somehow pay for the increased content costs.  Just being a leader in your business doesn't equate to being profitable.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 28, 2011, 10:06:06 AM
From what I've read, the DVD mailing portion is very costly, by charging for that separately already increases revenue for them. Streaming costs can scale down more easily than DVD distribution (postal rates usually go up not down) and that is probably very profitable for them because storage prices, servers etc get cheaper over time.

The problem is they will have to face increasing competition from media companies that want to do their own streaming for their content and cable companies are getting smarter about providing on-demand content as part of their service.

What we may see is more partnerships with media companies that will tap Netflix as their streaming partner rather than try to develop their own service... but I don't know if we'll ever see NFLX hit over $300 again.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: jvna on October 28, 2011, 10:37:15 AM
It'll be interesting also to see how well the non-studios fare as they try to create original content.  I know Youtube and Netflix is trying to create original content.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 07, 2011, 05:03:13 PM
They arent going out of business but the stock is going to $40.
It's at $90 now... is it going back up or down?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 07, 2011, 05:09:43 PM
They arent going out of business but the stock is going to $40.
It's at $90 now... is it going back up or down?
It'll get back to $40 within the next few years.  Can it get over $100 in the near term, sure why not.  This is a Momo stock which lost it's mojo.  Bad quarters come in bunches and it's not like they are in a market that google, apple, dishnetwork, amazon, etc can't get into.  That's not even taking into consideration the cost of content going higher and higher....you don't think those movie studios want a piece of that fat margin netflix has been making?  This is an overvalued company and I wouldn't own it with TIC's money.  I made my money on selling the calls last month but so you know I sold some $75 NOV puts for this month....gotta change things up sometimes as things don't just go in straight lines, either up or down.  ;)

I'll give you and all the other armchair investors out there any one of my Nov plays....buy out-of-the-money VIX calls (like 35-40) and sell 5-10x more higher higher VIX calls (50+) along with out-of-the-money SPY puts.  If the market stays flat you'll collect a good bit of option premium, if we get a mild sell-off you can make a nice return, and if we hit the crapper he'll have enoguh protection to not lose much at all.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 07, 2011, 05:21:39 PM
Relax... all I needed was the first part... you didn't have to go all VIXy on me... I'm not Graph.  :P
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 07, 2011, 05:32:41 PM
Relax... all I needed was the first part... you didn't have to go all VIXy on me... I'm not Graph.  :P
Just trying to give you a trade...not super risky but you will have to watch it untl the VIX expires next Wednesday.  :D
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 08, 2011, 09:10:45 AM
This is a Momo stock which lost it's mojo. 

What's amazing to me is that management was the sole cause of this loss of mojo.  The monumental drop in subscribers was in direct response to their actions.  Had management done nothing or introduced the price increases more gradually, we wouldn't even be having a conversation. 

As if upsetting the streaming customers wasn't enough, Netflix decided to introduce Qwikster to make sure 100% of their customers were not happy.  Seriously, who manages a company this way?  The CEO destroyed billions in value and should be fired immediately.

Are there any other companies that have gone from the darlings of Wallstreet to talk of failure, within a matter of 2 months as the result of nothing more than poor management execution?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 08, 2011, 09:58:57 AM
What they should have done is keep it the same price (or actually discount it a bit) if you go streaming only or DVD only.

If you want both, instead of twice as much it would be a small upcharge like $2-$3 (like they do when you add BluRay).

After doing things right for such a long time (they were able to kill Blockbuster and Blockbuster even had local stores to compete), this misstep was huge.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 21, 2011, 02:41:18 PM
Netflix making new lows in after hours trading, now at $69.  See you in the $40s (I thought in 2012 but it could very well happen this year at this rate).  LOOK OUT BELOW!
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 14, 2011, 12:33:26 AM
What's going to happen if VZW buys Netflix?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 14, 2011, 08:21:41 AM
What's going to happen if VZW buys Netflix?
They might buy eventually, just not now.  But then again, it's not a low barrier to entry business that Netflix plays it so VZW could get into it on their own.  Those are just rumors out there to squeeze shorts.  I still stick to my belief that NetFlix stock is heading into the $40s in 2012.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 24, 2012, 04:34:13 PM
I still stick to my belief that NetFlix stock is heading into the $40s in 2012.
Still?

I think the next step for Netflix is to try a pay-for-content model like iTunes.

I would gladly pay $1-$2 for a one-time stream of recent DVD releases. This would help them stave off the Redbox barrage.

I know Amazon Prime and Blockbuster On-Demand are something like that but those are on a computer while Netflix is already TV-connected (where I prefer to watch movies) and they should capitalize on that. Redbox already demonstrates people are willing to drive to the grocery store to rent a movie for a low price... what more if they can just download to their TV without the inconvenience?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 24, 2012, 05:43:32 PM
I still stick to my belief that NetFlix stock is heading into the $40s in 2012.
Still?

I think the next step for Netflix is to try a pay-for-content model like iTunes.

I would gladly pay $1-$2 for a one-time stream of recent DVD releases. This would help them stave off the Redbox barrage.

I know Amazon Prime and Blockbuster On-Demand are something like that but those are on a computer while Netflix is already TV-connected (where I prefer to watch movies) and they should capitalize on that. Redbox already demonstrates people are willing to drive to the grocery store to rent a movie for a low price... what more if they can just download to their TV without the inconvenience?
They will be out of business in 5-10 years...with companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google (not to mention all the cable companies) they don't have a chance.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 24, 2012, 10:08:36 PM
They will be out of business in 5-10 years...with companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google (not to mention all the cable companies) they don't have a chance.
A 5-10 year forecast?

So bold. :D

In 5-10 years... we could be getting the Internet beamed to our heads directly.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 24, 2012, 10:49:13 PM
They will be out of business in 5-10 years...with companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google (not to mention all the cable companies) they don't have a chance.
A 5-10 year forecast?

So bold. :D

In 5-10 years... we could be getting the Internet beamed to our heads directly.
Well they aren't going out of business this year....good things take time.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 25, 2012, 09:19:30 AM
How ironic that Blockbuster may outlive Netflix after all.  Has anyone tried their streaming plan through Dish Network?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 25, 2012, 09:26:18 AM
I dunno... if Netflix can evolve properly, they'll survive.

They just need to be able to adjust their services to the needs and the technology... like I said, PPV instant content would help. I did some research and although Vudu has tried, Zediva has been closed down so there's not many players who can go up against them except Blockbuster (for which you would need a DISH account to get their content on your TV).
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 07, 2012, 04:38:46 PM
So why has NFLX been over $100 since Jan now?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on March 07, 2012, 04:51:15 PM
I predict AAPL will take over netflix in the next year of two.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 07, 2012, 05:02:46 PM
I predict AAPL will take over netflix in the next year of two.
You mean buy them or get into the space and dominate via Apple TV?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on March 07, 2012, 07:06:23 PM
I think a purchase would dovetail perfectly with the move into TV.  Built in customer base, complimentary technology, and God know Apple has the money to spend.  Match that up with the markets loss of confidence in the current management coupled with the drop in the stock price and ...presto!!! Instant family.....just a guess
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on June 05, 2012, 05:28:11 PM
So why has NFLX been over $100 since Jan now?
Got to be fair and report the dips too... NFLX is back below $65... funny... their latest updates are pretty good software-wise (they added a Kids portal, subtitles, multiple languages and nicer interface).
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on September 12, 2012, 07:16:19 AM
This is not advice but I have been nibbling at this stock here in the mid $50s
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on October 04, 2012, 09:24:42 AM
I like the action.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 09, 2012, 10:12:45 PM
So weird... it was trading above 70 yesterday and now it's back down to 65.

From what I've read, Dish is giving up on their Blockbuster product... but Verizon is teaming up with Redbox... interesting.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on October 09, 2012, 10:28:14 PM
Thursday citi reced it, Friday Morgan reced it,  Tuesday Merrill dropped it....I hate analysts,  go figure
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 09, 2012, 10:32:38 PM
Thursday citi reced it, Friday Morgan reced it,  Tuesday Merrill dropped it....I hate analysts,  go figure
Just the casino at work (aka the stock market).  This is exactly why I don't trade individual stocks and stick to the indexes. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on October 22, 2012, 09:37:17 AM
Thursday citi reced it, Friday Morgan reced it,  Tuesday Merrill dropped it....I hate analysts,  go figure
Just the casino at work (aka the stock market).  This is exactly why I don't trade individual stocks and stick to the indexes. 

If anything it shows whatever Merrill says...do the oposite.  ;)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on October 31, 2012, 12:54:41 PM
I think a purchase would dovetail perfectly with the move into TV.  Built in customer base, complimentary technology, and God know Apple has the money to spend.  Match that up with the markets loss of confidence in the current management coupled with the drop in the stock price and ...presto!!! Instant family.....just a guess

OK, Apple is not in on it yet but they may show up.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-shares-soar-icahn-reports-193220745.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-shares-soar-icahn-reports-193220745.html)

Netflix shares soar after Icahn reports 10 percent stake
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on December 05, 2012, 07:28:51 AM
To quote Mark Twain, "The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-walt-disney-studios-announce-200700736.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-walt-disney-studios-announce-200700736.html)

Netflix and The Walt Disney Studios Announce Multi-Year Premium Pay TV Window Agreement in the United States

BEVERLY HILLS and BURBANK, Calif., Dec. 4, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and The Walt Disney Company (DIS) today announced a new multi-year licensing agreement that will make Netflix the exclusive U.S. subscription television service for first-run live-action and animated feature films from The Walt Disney Studios.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on January 23, 2013, 07:45:30 PM
Up $42.00 after hours.  Not a take over but I'll take that
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on February 20, 2013, 12:26:35 PM
I am out.  $56 to $190.  Good enough for me. I am not a greedy man. ;)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 20, 2013, 12:35:03 PM
Nice.

It doubled in a month's time... so what happened to USC's prediction of $40?

It's hard for me to bet against a company that has pioneered streaming media... do I think it will stay at $190... I have no idea... but it's hard for me to fathom that they will be out of business without either being acquired or re-inventing itself.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 20, 2013, 01:13:05 PM
I haven't been following Netflix lately.  What made their stock jump $70 in two trading sessions?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on February 20, 2013, 01:28:38 PM
Mickey Mouse clubhouse
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 23, 2013, 07:12:53 PM
NFLX is at $217... 29 million subscribers which is more than HBO.

Does USC still think it's going to hit $40? I should have bought at $65.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: jayl23 on April 23, 2013, 07:23:14 PM
Something to consider:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-22/does-netflix-34-billion-balance-sheet-liability-make-it-house-cards
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: dhanley on May 16, 2013, 04:00:58 PM
Yes, I was the one who bought in the 90s, sold it at 62 for stop loss only to watch this thing take off months later.  At least I have some Google though from 2 years back.  I think NFLX will die. It will be the best short ever. Quite possibly equaling the profits people made on Bear Stearns but maybe not as quick.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 16, 2013, 04:05:57 PM
especially with Redbox Instant getting more foothold. Netflix does not have the same omnipresence as Redbox does in every grocery store.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2013, 04:11:45 PM
It's going to be a while before Redbox surpasses Netflix... their streaming library is small in comparison.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: JasonTheArtist on May 16, 2013, 04:20:46 PM
Why not cut out the middle man (netflix & redbox) and have the networks sell off subscriptions of their own content?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2013, 04:30:57 PM
Why not cut out the middle man (netflix & redbox) and have the networks sell off subscriptions of their own content?
Because you need the middle man to collect it all in one place.

Imagine if you had to go to a different movie theater based on studio that puts the movie out.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on May 16, 2013, 04:37:58 PM
Why not cut out the middle man (netflix & redbox) and have the networks sell off subscriptions of their own content?
Because you need the middle man to collect it all in one place.

Imagine if you had to go to a different movie theater based on studio that puts the movie out.

yeah but all the networks can just create one user interface (website) that links up to their networks for live streaming. each network just uploads their catalog to the website and you can see what is available by title/movie type/studio, etc.  you dont really need a true middleman that makes profit.  kind of like Hulu.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: JasonTheArtist on May 16, 2013, 04:40:27 PM
Why not cut out the middle man (netflix & redbox) and have the networks sell off subscriptions of their own content?
Because you need the middle man to collect it all in one place.

Imagine if you had to go to a different movie theater based on studio that puts the movie out.
But what if you had one device (apple tv, roku, xbox, etc.) that collected all the networks to one place?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2013, 04:47:24 PM
Who's going to fund the cost of the infrastructure? Servers, UI development, bandwidth, DRM protection etc etc.

And you just can't load a file on a network drive and be done. This also doesn't deal with other issues like platform distribution, piracy and load balancing.

Additionally, not all devices support technology for true DRM protection or the ability to stream video through a browser (to answer Jason's question).

If it was so easy, more studios would be doing it (although some are like Sony's Crackle).
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on May 16, 2013, 04:51:00 PM
Who's going to fund the cost of the infrastructure? Servers, UI development, bandwidth, DRM protection etc etc.

And you just can't load a file on a network drive and be done. This also doesn't deal with other issues like platform distribution, piracy and load balancing.

Additionally, not all devices support technology for true DRM protection or the ability to stream video through a browser (to answer Jason's question).

If it was so easy, more studios would be doing it (although some are like Sony's Crackle).

i dont think i was clear. each studio hosts their movies on their own networks and handles on that tech stuff you mention on their own networks internally.  all they upload to the website they all agree to use is the title catalog. then when you click on a movie title it takes you to the networks site for the streaming.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on May 16, 2013, 04:51:51 PM
If it was so easy, more studios would be doing it (although some are like Sony's Crackle).

its somewhat easy, they are just greedy.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2013, 05:04:50 PM
its somewhat easy, they are just greedy.
It's not that easy and more to your point, it's expensive. Just supporting their own servers, bandwidth, user account management... that's all very costly. What does your company pay for your internet bandwidth? So imagine that cost times 100 or 1000.

And this central website, which studio foots the bill to keep it up and running? Who pays for the team to maintain that? And what about apps for devices that can't do browser-based video? Who pays for that development?

How much money do you think it would cost to set up your own streaming service that can support 29 millions subscribers?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: JasonTheArtist on May 16, 2013, 05:10:27 PM
My next question is what does Apple have up their sleeves and how will it be different than what we have available now? Can they change the tv industry the way they changed the music industry?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on May 16, 2013, 06:09:39 PM
its somewhat easy, they are just greedy.
It's not that easy and more to your point, it's expensive. Just supporting their own servers, bandwidth, user account management... that's all very costly. What does your company pay for your internet bandwidth? So imagine that cost times 100 or 1000.

And this central website, which studio foots the bill to keep it up and running? Who pays for the team to maintain that? And what about apps for devices that can't do browser-based video? Who pays for that development?

How much money do you think it would cost to set up your own streaming service that can support 29 millions subscribers?

i got no idea how much that costs. my point is you dont need a middle man, understanding that the studios now bare the costs of the infrastructure, but without the middleman the services to the end consumer should (or could) be cheaper. the development/maintenance costs of the central website could be allocated amongst the studios on some sort of reasonable basis.

similar things have been done before in other industries, Orbitz was a joint venture by various airlines so you can shop for airline tickets at one place, hulu was a joint venture at one point by the studios that centralized the tv show content in one place.  i dont see why the studios couldnt do the same thing for films that they did with tv shows (hulu).
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 16, 2013, 06:45:06 PM
my point is that it is much easier to build up streaming content over time, but to have a physical network like Redbox, it is much more difficult. In other words, in the future if the online content is comparable, I don't see how people not choosing Redbox: for the same price you get 4 DVD credits per month. Plus it is easier to get new/hit releases via Redbox than waiting it to arrive in the mail.

It's going to be a while before Redbox surpasses Netflix... their streaming library is small in comparison.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2013, 08:31:31 PM
i got no idea how much that costs. my point is you dont need a middle man, understanding that the studios now bare the costs of the infrastructure, but without the middleman the services to the end consumer should (or could) be cheaper. the development/maintenance costs of the central website could be allocated amongst the studios on some sort of reasonable basis.
But there has to be a middle man even if it's just a central website with cost allocation. Someone has to manage those costs and if you want to support single sign-on rather than requiring different credentials for each studio server/website, that's where the revenue stream begins and then you also have to manage who gets a cut of what.
Quote
similar things have been done before in other industries, Orbitz was a joint venture by various airlines so you can shop for airline tickets at one place, hulu was a joint venture at one point by the studios that centralized the tv show content in one place.  i dont see why the studios couldnt do the same thing for films that they did with tv shows (hulu).
Cinematic content is a bit different because of the costs and competing services (DVD, cable, TV, Netflix). Orbitz doesn't have the same infrastructure costs as streaming movies. As for Hulu, that's a middle man concept similar to Netflix except some of the studios are partners. All content is housed on the Hulu servers and share the same UI and infrastructure. And that still is only a few of the studios and a large part of the content is licensed from studios that are not partners in Hulu.

Since you have no idea how much it costs, I can tell you that it is enormous... in the millions. It's much easier for studios to arrange licensing contracts than to bear infrastructure costs to do their own streaming. This way they make money for just providing content and don't have to worry about managing hardware, software or personnel.

This still goes back to my theater analogy, it's much easier/cheaper to sell movie reels to Regal and AMC than having to worry about building their own theater chain. Studios want to worry about making movies, not selling them directly to the consumer.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2013, 08:39:30 PM
my point is that it is much easier to build up streaming content over time, but to have a physical network like Redbox, it is much more difficult. In other words, in the future if the online content is comparable, I don't see how people not choosing Redbox: for the same price you get 4 DVD credits per month. Plus it is easier to get new/hit releases via Redbox than waiting it to arrive in the mail.
I understand what you are saying, but Netflix has such a large lead in streaming it will still be a while for Redbox to catch up, not just in size of content library but technology.

Currently, Redbox's streaming is not very good, you can go their site and read the reviews about their service. They don't have Redbox Instant apps on as many platforms (no PS3 or Wii app yet... just XBox).

I do agree that the in-person physical DVD service is an advantage, but disc based media will soon go away and so will that advantage and revenue stream.

I am a Redbox user but I don't see their Instant service as a thread to Netflix in the near future (in my opinion).
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on May 16, 2013, 09:21:38 PM
i got no idea how much that costs. my point is you dont need a middle man, understanding that the studios now bare the costs of the infrastructure, but without the middleman the services to the end consumer should (or could) be cheaper. the development/maintenance costs of the central website could be allocated amongst the studios on some sort of reasonable basis.
But there has to be a middle man even if it's just a central website with cost allocation. Someone has to manage those costs and if you want to support single sign-on rather than requiring different credentials for each studio server/website, that's where the revenue stream begins and then you also have to manage who gets a cut of what.
Quote
similar things have been done before in other industries, Orbitz was a joint venture by various airlines so you can shop for airline tickets at one place, hulu was a joint venture at one point by the studios that centralized the tv show content in one place.  i dont see why the studios couldnt do the same thing for films that they did with tv shows (hulu).
Cinematic content is a bit different because of the costs and competing services (DVD, cable, TV, Netflix). Orbitz doesn't have the same infrastructure costs as streaming movies. As for Hulu, that's a middle man concept similar to Netflix except some of the studios are partners. All content is housed on the Hulu servers and share the same UI and infrastructure. And that still is only a few of the studios and a large part of the content is licensed from studios that are not partners in Hulu.

Since you have no idea how much it costs, I can tell you that it is enormous... in the millions. It's much easier for studios to arrange licensing contracts than to bear infrastructure costs to do their own streaming. This way they make money for just providing content and don't have to worry about managing hardware, software or personnel.

This still goes back to my theater analogy, it's much easier/cheaper to sell movie reels to Regal and AMC than having to worry about building their own theater chain. Studios want to worry about making movies, not selling them directly to the consumer.

but the middleman (website) is owned by the studios - the cost of this portal is not that much, once the user picks the movie, the user gets redirected to the studios hosted site.  the revenue can be allocated based on the number of movies watched. if i pay $10/month, i watch 3 sony flicks in a month, sony gets all $10, if in a month i watch 2 sony movies and 2 paramount each gets $5.  Hulu whiles structured difrrently than the simple scenario im using as an example is the middleman owned by the studios which equals more money for the studios. again, my point is the studios can eliminate Netlix as the current middle man if they wanted to and create a middle man they own to keep more profits. eventually profit growth becomes harder and harder and the studios will do away with netflix.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 17, 2013, 07:22:56 AM
my point is the studios can eliminate Netlix as the current middle man if they wanted to and create a middle man they own to keep more profits. eventually profit growth becomes harder and harder and the studios will do away with netflix.
You keep missing my answer... studios are in the business of making movies, not worrying about content distribution. The profits from such an endeavor isn't worth the cost of development and maintenance for such a system.

It's easier and more cost effective to license content to a middleman... or purchase one. Why do you think Google ended up buying YouTube instead of trying to continue to develop their Google Video service? It just wasn't worth trying to reinvent the wheel.

A studio can spend millions hoping to recoup those costs sometime down the line or it can make millions just licensing content to Vudu, Redbox Instant and Netflix and have to worry about the headache of maintaining its own service.

You may not believe it, but in this particular space at this particular time, the middleman model is more profitable to studios.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 01, 2013, 06:46:20 AM
Netflix finally announced Profiles:

http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/01/netflix-individual-streaming-profiles-start-rolling-out-worldwide/

It allows 5 per account.

This is why I didn't think they would go away, they keep improving their technology constantly. They added a Kids version of their interface earlier, have increased the number of titles that support captioning, added 1080p and 3D content and continue to add features to their interface (auto start of next title was a good one my kids liked).

It's at about $250 right now... I don't think that USC call of $40 is going to happen anytime soon.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: nosuchreality on August 01, 2013, 08:21:33 AM
I used to love Netflix.  I killed my account after we moved because the streaming was too broken up at the new place and with the new baby I wasn't getting any time to run on my elliptical.  It was perfect for picking a TV series and start an hourlong episode (45 minutes), and start your workout.  Workout and finish episode all in one spinning.

I really want to get rid of our DirecTV.  The service is wonderful.  The $150+/month price tag for the three TV, HD and DVR is not.

I just need a reliable HD antenna that doesn't have massive drop out and a way to do the DVR.  Not to mention way to get AMC and a couple other channels. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: OCgasman on August 01, 2013, 08:49:33 AM
I really want to get rid of our DirecTV.  The service is wonderful.  The $150+/month price tag for the three TV, HD and DVR is not.

Do it!  We gave up cable and the $100+/month bill a couple years ago and never looked back.  You have to be willing to give up live sports, football season was the toughest for me.  But love the money savings and really love my daughter not watching so much TV. 

We have an AppleTV so we stream some Netflix and still get Blu-rays thru the mail for our movie fix.  Netflix has great content for kids and I love having no commercials.  The commercials is what's stopping me from getting Hulu.  I would pay extra to be commercial free and emailed Hulu that, but all they said was "we offer great value, blah, blah, blah..." Whatever.

Anyway, I know it seems weird not having cable or satellite, but it's quite liberating.  Give it a try.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 04, 2013, 03:23:45 AM
Netflix finally announced Profiles:

http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/01/netflix-individual-streaming-profiles-start-rolling-out-worldwide/

It allows 5 per account.

This is why I didn't think they would go away, they keep improving their technology constantly. They added a Kids version of their interface earlier, have increased the number of titles that support captioning, added 1080p and 3D content and continue to add features to their interface (auto start of next title was a good one my kids liked).

It's at about $250 right now... I don't think that USC call of $40 is going to happen anytime soon.
It's just a matter of time that a management misstep and/or earnings miss happens and it's LOOK OUT BELOW.  Anyhow, I don't track stocks are they can be manipulated and/or ride momentum for a long time.  I still to trading options on indexes should as SPY, QQQ, VXX, and VIX, as you they say....trade what you know best.  ;)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 20, 2013, 11:09:47 PM
$313. Dang... USC... that's pretty far from $40. :)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 21, 2013, 08:09:30 AM
$313. Dang... USC... that's pretty far from $40. :)
It's a momo stock...just like Telsa.  You don't get in the way.  I don't trade individual stocks...only index and company options for me.  My results speak for themselves (see attachment).   ;D
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2013, 08:32:58 AM
Ah c'mon.... just admit it. You were wrong... it went completely opposite of your $40 call.

Forget the price of the stock, you claimed that Netflix would be out of business. I think it's because you don't consume that type of service, you don't understand the value of it... also known as the "You don't have kids who LOVE to watch Netflix" index.

When we discuss things like this, we're not analyzing your option trading success, so you can't make predictions on an individual stock value if you're going to claim you don't "trade individual stocks".

It's alright, AAPL has been a thorn in my side (now in the high 400s when it was close to 700) and GOOG is bonkers. Just like housing... no one knows jack.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 21, 2013, 08:58:18 AM
Ah c'mon.... just admit it. You were wrong... it went completely opposite of your $40 call.

Forget the price of the stock, you claimed that Netflix would be out of business. I think it's because you don't consume that type of service, you don't understand the value of it... also known as the "You don't have kids who LOVE to watch Netflix" index.

When we discuss things like this, we're not analyzing your option trading success, so you can't make predictions on an individual stock value if you're going to claim you don't "trade individual stocks".

It's alright, AAPL has been a thorn in my side (now in the high 400s when it was close to 700) and GOOG is bonkers. Just like housing... no one knows jack.
I still don't think Netflix has a solid long term model, just like I don't think Tesla have one either (it's the flavor of the month for now).  Content costs and competition will catch up to it, give it some time.  Was I wrong about the timing, of course I was.  I've learned long ago that the market can stay irrational longer than anyone can stay liquid so I just go with the flow. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2013, 09:49:01 AM
I still don't think Netflix has a solid long term model, just like I don't think Tesla have one either (it's the flavor of the month for now).  Content costs and competition will catch up to it, give it some time.
I don't think that's an accurate comparison or enough to prove that Netflix does not have a "solid long term model".

I don't feel you've done enough research into what Netflix has been doing or even used the service enough to make that type of determination.

From what I understand Netflix is profitable on its own merits, not from gov subsidies like Tesla so that's not really a match.

As for catch-up, yes, that's possible, but Netflix is so far ahead with content, delivery and service features that if it does things right, it will stay around (but then again, so was Palm and Blackberry). The things they have been doing in the last year or so since the Qwikster DVD debacle shows that they are willing to learn and course-correct.

Do you think GOOG is flavor of the month?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 21, 2013, 10:07:39 AM
I still don't think Netflix has a solid long term model, just like I don't think Tesla have one either (it's the flavor of the month for now).  Content costs and competition will catch up to it, give it some time.
I don't think that's an accurate comparison or enough to prove that Netflix does not have a "solid long term model".

I don't feel you've done enough research into what Netflix has been doing or even used the service enough to make that type of determination.

From what I understand Netflix is profitable on its own merits, not from gov subsidies like Tesla so that's not really a match.

As for catch-up, yes, that's possible, but Netflix is so far ahead with content, delivery and service features that if it does things right, it will stay around (but then again, so was Palm and Blackberry). The things they have been doing in the last year or so since the Qwikster DVD debacle shows that they are willing to learn and course-correct.

Do you think GOOG is flavor of the month?
Current flavors of the month are Netflix, Yelp, Tesla, and Linkedin (aka the momo four horsemen).  Facebook and Amazon would be the 5th/6th in the group.  I would consider GOOG a fairly valued stock.  I stick with a simple motto....trade what you know. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2013, 12:31:23 PM
@usc:

You're mixing again. You can't really speak to "long term model" and then claim it's just a "momo" because aren't those almost exclusive?

GOOG may be a "momo" but it's hardly "flavor of the month". It has been rising steadily since the 08 dump.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 22, 2013, 08:44:00 PM
@usc:

You're mixing again. You can't really speak to "long term model" and then claim it's just a "momo" because aren't those almost exclusive?

GOOG may be a "momo" but it's hardly "flavor of the month". It has been rising steadily since the 08 dump.
I never said that GOOG is a momo stock anymore and it is definitely not the flavor of the month.  Very solid company that dominates their market where they print money.  If I were to buy and hold a stocks, GOOG would be at the top of the list.  I much rather own GOOG versus Facebook or Amazon.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 22, 2013, 10:07:34 PM
@usc:

My bad... I misread your post, thought you said GOOG was a momo too, I apologize.

I agree, would take GOOG over FB any day. Amazon might be okay... although I'm not convinced that the Kindle Fire is going to remain competitive, B&N has already given up on the Nook and they had physical presence not just in their stores but also BB and Target (the latter even removing Kindle from their shelves).

Do you play on the foreign markets? Like Samsung or HTC (almost opposites)?

Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 23, 2013, 09:09:51 PM
@usc:

My bad... I misread your post, thought you said GOOG was a momo too, I apologize.

I agree, would take GOOG over FB any day. Amazon might be okay... although I'm not convinced that the Kindle Fire is going to remain competitive, B&N has already given up on the Nook and they had physical presence not just in their stores but also BB and Target (the latter even removing Kindle from their shelves).

Do you play on the foreign markets? Like Samsung or HTC (almost opposites)?


Nah, I keep it simple and trade index options in the US which is what I know best.  With each trade I continue to learn and refine my trading strategy so the market always keeps me on my toes.  I like to sleep so no way would trade foreign markets or things like Fx, metals, or futures. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 15, 2013, 04:57:08 PM
http://business.time.com/2013/10/01/netflix-is-coming-after-your-cable-box/?hpt=hp_t2

They will never get Time Warner Cable to agree - since they own HBO and Cinemax.

Read another article that this may be close due to the fact that Netflix is partly responsible for the popularity of cable TV series.

Prior to Netflix streaming, Breaking Bad didn't have good ratings, but once it was available, numbers slowly went up to create the Walter White phenomena we are all familiar with.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 22, 2013, 07:04:28 AM
Dang, over 40m subscribers (bigger than HBO) and counting... stock over $350+ after closing.

Very far from dying... I should have listened to my own advice, if I jumped in at $70 it would be up 500%.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 22, 2013, 06:26:42 PM
Dang, over 40m subscribers (bigger than HBO) and counting... stock over $350+ after closing.

Very far from dying... I should have listened to my own advice, if I jumped in at $70 it would be up 500%.


why didn't you buy? sounds like you are a big cheerleader for that stock?  Doesn't make sense to advocate for it and ignore your own advice?
Dumb money bought in afterhours last night and around open and smart money shorted the stock hard today. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 22, 2013, 06:50:22 PM
Actually I'm an advocate of Netflix, NFLX is just an indicator that others agree. I don't play the market because I don't have the time and any of my extra cash goes into the 401k.

I should buy and hold some things though. Stuff that I use is usually a safe bet. Is TI publicly listed? :)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on October 22, 2013, 07:54:17 PM
I think a purchase would dovetail perfectly with the move into TV.  Built in customer base, complimentary technology, and God know Apple has the money to spend.  Match that up with the markets loss of confidence in the current management coupled with the drop in the stock price and ...presto!!! Instant family.....just a guess

OK, Apple is not in on it yet but they may show up.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-shares-soar-icahn-reports-193220745.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-shares-soar-icahn-reports-193220745.html)

Netflix shares soar after Icahn reports 10 percent stake

Follow him in....follow him out..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101110636 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101110636)

Icahn sale would hit Netflix stock: RBC's Mahaney

A sale of Netflix stock by Carl Icahn could send the shares 5 to 7 percent lower, RBC Capital Markets Internet analyst Mark Mahaney said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money."

"He's been an extremely good buyer of the stock," Mahaney said. "If he were to sell, I wouldn't change our opinion, but we'd note it as a clear negative on the stock. He knows what he's doing with Netflix so far."

Icahn, the billionaire activist investor and chairman of Icahn Enterprises, holds 10 percent of Netflix's outstanding shares

Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 16, 2014, 08:23:24 PM
Wow... up $100 in just a month.

I think $430 is pretty far from $70.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 19, 2014, 12:44:15 PM
So does USC still think NFLX is flavor of the month? It's been 6 months. Maybe flavor of the year?

I blame your $40 call on me missing out a 600% gain. :)

It's all good. I thought GOOG was at its ceiling at $500 and that AAPL would be higher than $500.

And that's why I'm not a trader.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on March 19, 2014, 02:31:31 PM
This is not advice but I have been nibbling at this stock here in the mid $50s

Hey I got the buy right, left a bit on the table but I'll take what the market gives.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on March 19, 2014, 02:37:58 PM
HLF is where its at. FTC investigation will produce nothing.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 19, 2014, 02:39:08 PM
Isn't HLF an MLM?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on March 19, 2014, 03:28:04 PM
Isn't HLF an MLM?

yes, but not a ponzi scheme. once the FTC investigation goes away, i think this is going to go way up. the day they filed their 10Ks from the new PWC audits the stock jumped 10%.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 19, 2014, 06:04:47 PM
HLF is where its at. FTC investigation will produce nothing.
+1
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 19, 2014, 06:09:09 PM
So does USC still think NFLX is flavor of the month? It's been 6 months. Maybe flavor of the year?

I blame your $40 call on me missing out a 600% gain. :)

It's all good. I thought GOOG was at its ceiling at $500 and that AAPL would be higher than $500.

And that's why I'm not a trader.
So I was wrong, it happens.  I don't use Netflix and don't plan on using it in the future.  It's a momo stock so as long as the stock market is going up it'll go up in multiples of that but honestly I don't even know what it's trading at today because I don't follow the company.  I don't trade company stocks....I trade what I know....index options. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 21, 2014, 03:27:09 PM
I don't even know what it's trading at today because I don't follow the company.  I don't trade company stocks....I trade what I know....index options. 
Then you shouldn't be making $40 calls. :)

It's up to $450 now... highest ever. Ridiculous.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 04, 2014, 12:21:19 PM
So looks like Redbox and VZW are throwing in the towel trying to compete with Netflix:

http://www.engadget.com/2014/10/04/redbox-instant-shutting-down/

Quote
If you thought that Redbox Instant would have trouble competing against a streaming video behemoth like Netflix, you were right. The Verizon-backed service is telling customers that Instant will shut down just before midnight on October 7th, roughly a year and a half after it got off the ground.

Yeah... not only is NFLX not going to die... it's not going to see $40 either. :)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 15, 2014, 01:42:21 PM
Wow, NFLX down $120+ in after-hours trading.  Brutal. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 15, 2014, 02:08:35 PM
$40 here we come!!!

Not.

One smart thing that NFLX did that I didn't expect, was come out with original content. House of Cards, Orange is the New Black have turned some heads and they have signed deals with Disney/Marvel for brand new upcoming live action content.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 15, 2014, 02:19:25 PM
$40 here we come!!!

Not.

One smart thing that NFLX did that I didn't expect, was come out with original content. House of Cards, Orange is the New Black have turned some heads and they have signed deals with Disney/Marvel for brand new upcoming live action content.
Probably not going to $40 but this is exactly why I don't play with  momo stocks like NFLX.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: The California Court Company on October 15, 2014, 02:26:15 PM
HBO is coming out with a la carte streaming plan and I expect other content providers to do the same: Disney, ESPN and so on. So if the content providers start to bypass the middle man, cable/satellite companies would take a big hit as their business models will become outdated, and to a certain degree Netflix would be affected also.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 15, 2014, 02:44:26 PM
$40 here we come!!!

Not.

One smart thing that NFLX did that I didn't expect, was come out with original content. House of Cards, Orange is the New Black have turned some heads and they have signed deals with Disney/Marvel for brand new upcoming live action content.
Probably not going to $40
Tell yourself that!
They arent going out of business but the stock is going to $40.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 17, 2014, 04:52:02 PM
The draw for Netflix is that it's media from multiple studios in one place.

Imagine if you had to pay Cox, DirectTV and Dish to access all the content you wanted... it wouldn't work.

For the studios, they also have to deal with the added costs for infrastructure, service, support and maintenance to deliver their own service, where they can just get paid in bulk for content and just worry about creating more content (I've mentioned this before).

Sometimes, having the middleman also means not having to worry about all the headaches the middleman takes care of so you can concentrate on your core business.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on May 09, 2015, 12:34:37 PM
In an effort to get Netflix to 750/share I signed up for Netflix last week. Started watching daredevil, pretty good.  Got it for my daughter to add variety to her continued dominance of my 70" TV :-(
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 09, 2015, 02:01:19 PM
Daredevil is a great series, good choice of actors and very close to the comic book source material.

DIS is going to keep going up. :)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on May 15, 2015, 02:17:34 PM
Over $600 on China expansion talks with Jack Ma.  Dammit Gina!!
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on June 10, 2015, 11:45:46 AM
Netflix split awaiting board approval, dammit again!
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on June 10, 2015, 01:26:08 PM
i signed up to get more content for my daughter and am now addicted. watched all of daredevil, bloodline, watching between and just finished the first season of house of cards.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on June 10, 2015, 01:28:19 PM
i signed up to get more content for my daughter and am now addicted. watched all of daredevil, bloodline, watching between and just finished the first season of house of cards.

HOC is terrible...gets worse as the seasons get along.  Just finished Sense8...pretty interesting.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on June 10, 2015, 01:31:29 PM
i was going to start sense8 before house of cards but it had gotten some bad reviews
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on June 10, 2015, 01:48:04 PM
Bloodline is worth the $X per month fee. Slow, but terrific. Wonder what their alcohol budget was for the series.

DD was also a great deal of fun.  Figure each episode was 1hr uninterrupted content which translates to 1.5 hrs with breaks and commercials on regular channels.

My .02c
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on June 11, 2015, 08:57:07 AM
i was going to start sense8 before house of cards but it had gotten some bad reviews

Sense8's plotline sort of fizzled out by the last 2-3 episode but the acting and concepts are top notch.  Conversely, House of Cards was interest for the first half season and went drastically downhill from there.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on June 24, 2015, 02:06:23 PM
FYI - Netflix announced split, 7 for 1.


http://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-stock-split-boost-share-price-2015-6
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on June 24, 2015, 07:34:57 PM
Time to load the truck up with shares, after the split.

Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on June 24, 2015, 08:07:34 PM
If you are going to play it that way, always buy before the split
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on June 24, 2015, 09:07:29 PM
Felt like we all just made Icahn richer
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on June 24, 2015, 09:20:46 PM
Felt like we all just made Icahn richer

What do you mean?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on June 26, 2015, 11:57:35 AM
Who's buying NFLX before the split?  Got in today
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on July 15, 2015, 08:36:40 PM
Nice 10% jump after closing today, got in at 654 pre split.  How much higher can this stock go? 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on October 15, 2015, 08:34:01 AM
Big drop today, almost to my buy limit $97
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on October 16, 2015, 02:20:45 PM
98.41, lets see if Monday would be a good entry for buyers.  Well past the Icahn mark, buy around $96 and sell at $110
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on October 19, 2015, 09:00:26 AM
Anybody jump in today, got in at $96.  Watch this beta zigzag
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: AW on October 19, 2015, 10:15:37 AM
They've raised their rates to make better programming, hopefully it pays off
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on October 19, 2015, 01:54:59 PM
I'm in
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on November 04, 2015, 12:28:50 PM
under $100 this is looking like a good trade
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on January 14, 2016, 01:06:01 PM
I predict AAPL will take over netflix in the next year of two.

I have thought this for a long time too

https://techpinions.com/why-apple-should-buy-netflix/42917 (https://techpinions.com/why-apple-should-buy-netflix/42917)

Why Apple Should Buy Netflix

This is a thought I’ve had for some time now – I’ve mentioned it a couple of times in various places, but I haven’t had a chance to write down my reasons for thinking this would be a good idea until now. Given the context of Netflix’s huge international expansion, now seems as good a time as any, especially since CES has been even less newsworthy this year.

Apple has long been reported to be working on a subscription TV service. Though Apple itself has, of course, not commented on these reports, the consensus is Apple is planning a cable replacement service, but likely a “skinny” one, offering a smaller number of channels than the classic pay TV service and with a heavy focus on the on-demand aspects as well as an app-based UI for various Apple devices. However, the negotiations have apparently stalled over Apple’s desire to keep the price under a certain level which, in turn, implies breaking up the traditional bundle and the sorts of channel packages most rights owners have historically negotiated
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on April 18, 2016, 02:05:22 PM
Ouch

Netflix plunges after weak guidance http://www.cnbc.com/id/103556666
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: paydawg on July 19, 2016, 11:01:55 AM
Ouch again.... stock down almost 14% down to $85/share.  New subscribers fell short of expectations and there are concerns of a price hike. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: jmoney74 on July 19, 2016, 12:11:31 PM
they are saying competition has nothing to do with it.  I say they are trying to calm  investors.  They have a lot of selections but most of the content is garbage.  Would rather just subscribe to Hulu and HBO Now. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: paydawg on July 19, 2016, 12:20:25 PM
they are saying competition has nothing to do with it.  I say they are trying to calm  investors.  They have a lot of selections but most of the content is garbage.  Would rather just subscribe to Hulu and HBO Now.

I was going to ask...is Netflix worth it?  I'm looking for a replacement for renting movies on iTunes or thru Cox On Demand.  I already have all the premium movie channels, but that movie selection is very limited.  I really don't care much about original content....just looking for a cost-efficient way to watch movies that I missed from the past 6-7 years.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: jmoney74 on July 19, 2016, 12:54:22 PM
These studios need to start opening up the rental market.  I think $5 per rental is fair game but need all the content. 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: tim on July 22, 2016, 10:16:43 AM
they are saying competition has nothing to do with it.  I say they are trying to calm  investors.  They have a lot of selections but most of the content is garbage.  Would rather just subscribe to Hulu and HBO Now.

I was going to ask...is Netflix worth it?  I'm looking for a replacement for renting movies on iTunes or thru Cox On Demand.  I already have all the premium movie channels, but that movie selection is very limited.  I really don't care much about original content....just looking for a cost-efficient way to watch movies that I missed from the past 6-7 years.

Oddly, considering how they got their start, Netflix isn't really that great for movies. They are more about TV series now. They are making a lot of their own shows. Many of them are fantastic.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: ps9 on August 01, 2016, 11:35:30 AM
Just binged Voltron over the weekend, nicely done, can't wait for season 2, even my daughter liked it.  Guess we're pass the princess stage. 

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5580664/
https://www.netflix.com/title/80075595
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 01, 2016, 11:44:40 AM
Netflix + Amazon Prime Video + Redbox seems to satisfy our movie needs.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on January 06, 2017, 08:19:13 AM
$133...all time high!!
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 06, 2017, 12:07:15 PM
Just binged Voltron over the weekend, nicely done, can't wait for season 2, even my daughter liked it.  Guess we're pass the princess stage. 

Except for Voltron also has a princess. :)

Ever since Netflix added that download feature I've been watching more shows... maybe that's why the uptick in stock price.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 31, 2017, 12:40:14 PM
So NFLX is ~$180, accounting for that 7/1 split, that's $1260.

Where was it when this thread started? Is that a 10x profit? Even at the split when people were buying ~$90, that's still 100%.

I dunno... that's pretty far from $40 (sorry USC, gotta keep pokin' you on this one).
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Compressed-Village on September 21, 2018, 08:56:50 AM
Noticed that Netflix has quietly removed many Documentaries flix from the Documentary category. A lot of good series got removed. I was particular interest watching political and under ground financing docuseries, when truth uncover the real hidden agendas for the motives.

This after they jack up the price. How can we get it back? Youtube?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2018, 09:04:12 AM
So NFLX is ~$180, accounting for that 7/1 split, that's $1260.

Where was it when this thread started? Is that a 10x profit? Even at the split when people were buying ~$90, that's still 100%.

I dunno... that's pretty far from $40 (sorry USC, gotta keep pokin' you on this one).

Wow... it's around $360 now. That's double in just a year... do I get a pat on a back for this?

I'm kidding... I thought NFLX was a good investment back when this thread started but I had no idea it would go this high.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2018, 09:30:44 AM
So 6 years later, I do have to add that more studios are doing the qwerty strategy of streaming their own content. I believe this has more to do with cable cutting than trying to take down Netflix.

But as I said, it's an inefficient way to consume media. I prefer to watch from one platform instead of having to sign into each and every service and run their app.

Today we have 4 main services: Dish satellite, Amazon Prime, Netflix and Vudu. We stopped doing Redbox because although $1-2 is cheap to rent a BR, it's a hassle to go to the box, rent it, and then return it the next day (on more than one occasions we have forgot and incurred extra fees). We'd much rather pay the $4-6 on Vudu... although we also started using Redbox Instant but their platform is a bit behind in quality.

I'm wary about Netflix now because Disney/Marvel added tons of content to their library but since they are developing their own streaming service, not sure how that's going to go for them. DC Studios is also doing their own streaming and with AT&T merging with Time Warner, that makes another media powerhouse against the Dis/Marvel/Fox house. Netflix is going to have to play nice with those 2 in some way or they could be in trouble. And there is still Google with their YouTube TV service which also has original content from YouTube Red.

However it goes, it's good for the consumer as gives us options and may lower pricing, but bad because you have to go to numerous areas for content and adding up all the prices for those services ends up like a cable bill.

But Netflix will not go out of business, we are 6 years into USC's 5-10 year out of business prediction... and way past his $40 call. Good things he trades options. :)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on September 21, 2018, 09:33:04 AM
Watch out for Disney. (a lot of content and they “pulled out”  from Netflix)

So 6 years later, I do have to add that more studios are doing the qwerty strategy of streaming their own content. I believe this has more to do with cable cutting than trying to take down Netflix.

But as I said, it's an inefficient way to consume media. I prefer to watch from one platform instead of having to sign into each and every service and run their app.

Today we have 4 main services: Dish satellite, Amazon Prime, Netflix and Vudu. We stopped doing Redbox because although $1-2 is cheap to rent a BR, it's a hassle to go to the box, rent it, and then return it the next day (on more than one occasions we have forgot and incurred extra fees). We'd much rather pay the $4-6 on Vudu... although we also started using Redbox Instant but their platform is a bit behind in quality.

I'm wary about Netflix now because Disney/Marvel added tons of content to their library but since they are developing their own streaming service, not sure how that's going to go for them. DC Studios is also doing their own streaming and with AT&T merging with Time Warner, that makes another media powerhouse against the Dis/Marvel/Fox house. Netflix is going to have to play nice with those 2 in some way or they could be in trouble. And there is still Google with their YouTube TV service which also has original content from YouTube Red.

However it goes, it's good for the consumer as gives us options and may lower pricing, but bad because you have to go to numerous areas for content and adding up all the prices for those services ends up like a cable bill.

But Netflix will not go out of business, we are 6 years into USC's 5-10 year out of business prediction... and way past his $40 call. Good things he trades options. :)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2018, 10:48:34 AM
Watch out for Disney. (a lot of content and they “pulled out”  from Netflix)

I said that already... multiple times. Why don’t you post links to where I said that? :)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on September 21, 2018, 10:59:38 AM
Watch out for Disney. (a lot of content and they “pulled out”  from Netflix)

I said that already... multiple times. Why don’t you post links to where I said that? :)

I think your a waste of time to talk to.

I forgot. Did BTB mute you on TI?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2018, 11:10:51 AM
Watch out for Disney. (a lot of content and they “pulled out”  from Netflix)

I said that already... multiple times. Why don’t you post links to where I said that? :)

I think your a waste of time to talk to.

I forgot. Did BTB mute you on TI?

Didn’t you just repeat what I just said? You even quoted it.

This is another example of the low value of some (not all) of your posts.

That’s more of a waste of time.

Or do you feel I’m “attacking” you again.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on September 21, 2018, 11:25:50 AM
Watch out for Disney. (a lot of content and they “pulled out”  from Netflix)

I said that already... multiple times. Why don’t you post links to where I said that? :)

I think your a waste of time to talk to.

I forgot. Did BTB mute you on TI?

Didn’t you just repeat what I just said? You even quoted it.

This is another example of the low value of some (not all) of your posts.

That’s more of a waste of time.

Or do you feel I’m “attacking” you again.

No, I didn’t repeat what you said. You are full of it.
So I’m the only one that posts links on TI for conversation purposes or to strengthen a point for valid proof also known as evidence? I mean a person can say this and that, but if there’s no proof. Then it doesn’t mean anything.

Just because you don’t like how the conversation is going such as the housing analysis. Then you make petty comments regarding links. I’ve dealt with people like you before and let me tell you they don’t go far. (But there’s always exceptions - I guess)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2018, 11:42:21 AM
This is what I said:

I'm wary about Netflix now because Disney/Marvel added tons of content to their library but since they are developing their own streaming service, not sure how that's going to go for them.

You quoted it and then this is what you said:

Watch out for Disney. (a lot of content and they “pulled out”  from Netflix)

How is that not repeating what I said.

Just because you don’t like how the conversation is going such as the housing analysis. Then you make petty comments regarding links. I’ve dealt with people like you before and let me tell you they don’t go far. (But there’s always exceptions - I guess)

You have called me petty and questioned my character multiple times on TI... so who really is attacking who?

I'm making no assumptions about your life or your character, but I guess someone who doesn't understand how our military who have died in service for our country is related to the right to free speech and protest, that should tell me something about your ability to understand concepts like:

- Please explain your theories with more detail
- Please don't just state the obvious
- Please explain where someone is attacking you

And as for your housing thread, where do you get that I don't "like how the conversation is going"? I'm just trying to get more details about what people are posting on there so that it gives more value to everyone reading it... trying to actually put some real analysis in that thread.

And you know what the definition of "petty" really is? Comments about how "far someone will get in life" is a good example.

You just don't get it.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on September 21, 2018, 11:45:41 AM
This is what I said:

I'm wary about Netflix now because Disney/Marvel added tons of content to their library but since they are developing their own streaming service, not sure how that's going to go for them.

You quoted it and then this is what you said:

Watch out for Disney. (a lot of content and they “pulled out”  from Netflix)

How is that not repeating what I said.

Just because you don’t like how the conversation is going such as the housing analysis. Then you make petty comments regarding links. I’ve dealt with people like you before and let me tell you they don’t go far. (But there’s always exceptions - I guess)

You have called me petty and questioned my character multiple times on TI... so who really is attacking who?

I'm making no assumptions about your life or your character, but I guess someone who doesn't understand how our military who have died in service for our country is related to the right to free speech and protest, that should tell me something about your ability to understand concepts like:

- Please explain your theories with more detail
- Please don't just state the obvious
- Please explain where someone is attacking you

And as for your housing thread, where do you get that I don't "like how the conversation is going"? I'm just trying to get more details about what people are posting on there so that it gives more value to everyone reading it... trying to actually put some real analysis in that thread.

And you know what the definition of "petty" really is? Comments about how "far someone will get in life" is a good example.

You just don't get it.

Go get a hobby or something. Leave me the ##ck alone.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2018, 11:49:21 AM
Go get a hobby or something. Leave me the ##ck alone.

Nice.

If you're scared of me, then don't respond to my posts. Oh wait... you already do that because you can't answer the questions I ask you.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: qwerty on September 21, 2018, 12:48:10 PM
I was partially right :-)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on September 21, 2018, 01:27:19 PM
Go get a hobby or something. Leave me the ##ck alone.

Nice.

If you're scared of me, then don't respond to my posts. Oh wait... you already do that because you can't answer the questions I ask you.

Scared? (More like stop trolling)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Compressed-Village on September 21, 2018, 01:53:58 PM
Happy Fridays Guys.... :) :) :) :)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on September 21, 2018, 02:08:05 PM
Happy Fridays Guys.... :) :) :) :)

TGIF CV
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 21, 2018, 04:28:56 PM
Go get a hobby or something. Leave me the ##ck alone.

Nice.

If you're scared of me, then don't respond to my posts. Oh wait... you already do that because you can't answer the questions I ask you.

Scared? (More like stop trolling)

Do you even know what trolling is?

I’m not going to stop pointing out whenever you post a Captain Obvious comment or some remark that you don’t explain or back up.

That’s why this is called a forum.

At least in the political threads you seem to explain yourself more although on a number of your posts you ask everyone else questions without really answering theirs. Maybe you should be more forthcoming in the real estate threads, I’m not the only one who has asked you that.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Cares on September 24, 2018, 10:35:54 AM
So is Netflix dying or not dying? I need to know so I can afford my next mortgage payment...
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on September 24, 2018, 10:39:41 AM
That’s funny
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: lnc on January 20, 2022, 06:21:41 PM
It’s finally happening.  After 10 years of shorting NFLX, short seller finally win once.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on January 20, 2022, 06:50:43 PM
Not with squid games series. (Sheeeesh)

* thats what I read in an article (I think)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: The California Court Company on January 20, 2022, 07:10:36 PM
Crypto and NFT next?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 20, 2022, 10:33:32 PM
They will be out of business in 5-10 years...with companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google (not to mention all the cable companies) they don't have a chance.
A 5-10 year forecast?

So bold. :D

In 5-10 years... we could be getting the Internet beamed to our heads directly.
Well they aren't going out of business this year....good things take time.

It will be 10 years in 4 days.

I don't think Netflix is going anywhere... or $40 pre-split. :)

So who was able to buy a new house with their Netflix stock that they bought in January 2012?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: morekaos on January 20, 2022, 10:52:14 PM
This is not advice but I have been nibbling at this stock here in the mid $50s

Some of my clients still have it…I traded through it but have owned it on and off over the years. I personally don’t own it right now but if it gets cheap enough I may take an interest.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: momopi on January 31, 2022, 01:44:52 PM
I got Netflix for free from T-Mobile.  They are hogging up a lot of A-list Korean drama titles.  Hard for companies like Viki to compete.

Apple TV is getting the latest Lee Min-Ho drama https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pachinko_(TV_series)

I watched "Foundation" on Apple TV and really liked the quality of the show.  Many Netflix produced shows cost more but the quality was meh.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: eyephone on January 31, 2022, 01:47:24 PM
I got Netflix for free from T-Mobile.  They are hogging up a lot of A-list Korean drama titles.  Hard for companies like Viki to compete.

Apple TV is getting the latest Lee Min-Ho drama https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pachinko_(TV_series)

I watched "Foundation" on Apple TV and really liked the quality of the show.  Many Netflix produced shows cost more but the quality was meh.

I have a different opinion about apple tv exclusive shows/movies. Tbh I only liked the Tom Hanks war movie. The other shows/movies do not appeal to me.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 31, 2022, 03:45:54 PM
Maybe with Covid or Covid vaccines, we are getting Internet beamed directly to our heads via 5G.

I did like Foundation... and See is actually okay too. Ted Lasso is supposed to be really good.

The more the merrier... but Ozark on Netflix is fantastic.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 31, 2022, 04:06:15 PM
The more the merrier... but Ozark on Netflix is fantastic.

What is it about Ozark that you find so appealing?  I watched the first episode... It didn't hook me in.  And I watched the most recent trailer and it still didn't really excite me. 

I guess what I didn't like in the first episode was how implausible a lot of the decision making was.  For me, character motivations have to make sense or it's hard for me to get into the story.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on January 31, 2022, 05:32:55 PM
+1 for Ozark. If episode 1 isn't a grabber for you just give it time.

Apple+ doesn't have enough original content to keep things going. They have plenty of cash to deploy but do they want to become a film studio? Some good shows so far, but also some real duds. Amazon Prime also has $$$ plus a vast library of content to resell. They should be one of the last few standing as a content provider in the next 5 years. Paramount+ has content, but really only 3 tentpole shows (Yellowstone, 1883, and Star Trek). Disney+ is likely to absorb Hulu into the Mouse's Hive Mind soon, so don't look surprised to hear they've gone by the wayside. Netflix has US and overseas markets cornered, and with a great number of productions going on now, they will have the legs to avoid implosion. Most of the news about Netflix is stock related which is why we hear so much about the service here.

My call to check back on 5 years from now>:

Survivors: The big 3 - Amazon, Disney+, Netflix
Bubbles: Apple+, Paramount+
Life Support: Hulu, AMC+, etc.
Dead on Arrival? - Know anyone willing to pay for CNN+? Anyone... Bueller... Bueller... Anyone....

My .02c





 
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 31, 2022, 07:31:37 PM
The more the merrier... but Ozark on Netflix is fantastic.

What is it about Ozark that you find so appealing?  I watched the first episode... It didn't hook me in.  And I watched the most recent trailer and it still didn't really excite me. 

I guess what I didn't like in the first episode was how implausible a lot of the decision making was.  For me, character motivations have to make sense or it's hard for me to get into the story.

Yeah... Ozark isn't for everyone, and sometimes it takes more than one or a few episodes. I think it's the whole "what you would do for family" that hooks me.

Like Game of Thrones, it took me a while and couldn't really get past the first few eps, but once I watched it with other people, it started to click with all the political machinations etc.

Same thing with Breaking Bad... didn't get into it until way after it was over... I actually think Better Call Saul is superior because the storylines have more dimensions.

The Sopranos... never got it.

I think The Expanse is awesome... slow... but really good... but I get why people don't think so.

So it just depends.

Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: zubs on February 01, 2022, 08:36:58 AM
I picked up nflx when it was @ 360.  Lucky so far.
sometimes stuff gets oversold....but I tend to hold too long.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 01, 2022, 11:31:28 AM
The more the merrier... but Ozark on Netflix is fantastic.

What is it about Ozark that you find so appealing?  I watched the first episode... It didn't hook me in.  And I watched the most recent trailer and it still didn't really excite me. 

I guess what I didn't like in the first episode was how implausible a lot of the decision making was.  For me, character motivations have to make sense or it's hard for me to get into the story.

Yeah... Ozark isn't for everyone, and sometimes it takes more than one or a few episodes. I think it's the whole "what you would do for family" that hooks me.

Like Game of Thrones, it took me a while and couldn't really get past the first few eps, but once I watched it with other people, it started to click with all the political machinations etc.

Same thing with Breaking Bad... didn't get into it until way after it was over... I actually think Better Call Saul is superior because the storylines have more dimensions.

The Sopranos... never got it.

I think The Expanse is awesome... slow... but really good... but I get why people don't think so.

So it just depends.

The first few seasons of Game of Thrones mirrored the novels pretty closely, which is why they took a few episodes to really set the groundwork for the later more exciting episodes.  Each of the novels is about 1,000 pages long and the first 200-300 pages are the same way - kind of slow to start, but then they really pick up.

Better Call Saul started pretty slowly, and the whole brother's electricity allergy I thought was bizarre, but it started to hit its stride in seasons 3-4.  I do like seeing the origin stories for a lot of the Breaking Bad characters and their motivations do totally make sense once you see how they got to where they are.  I don't know if I would classify it as better than Breaking Bad yet, but it has that potential.

The Sopranos gets credit as kicking off this whole high-quality drama on TV trend that has dominated the last 20 years.  Many people feel like television is superior to the movies now, but prior to the early 2000's that was not the case.  I agree that by today's standards the Sopranos isn't quite as amazing, since we've had so many amazing shows since then, but it gets credit as being the Godfather of modern television.  (See what I did there?)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 01, 2022, 12:47:13 PM
Wheel of Time I do not get.

I have a buddy who swears it's better than GOT and I could barely get past the first episode... The Witcher was better to me.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: zubs on February 01, 2022, 01:09:31 PM
While watching wheel of time this happened....


(https://decider.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/nynaeve-lan-shirtless.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=618)


Then my wife started watching it too.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on February 01, 2022, 01:37:24 PM
Did not get Wheel of Time either. Soylent Red enjoyed it however perhaps for the same reason as Ms. Zubs.  ;)

Glad to have "Snowpiercer" back on, as well as having a weird show called "Raised by Wolves" (HBO+) back come Thursday. Slugging through new season of "Servant" (Apple+) but it's starting to lose it's draw at least for me. We'll see where these go in 1-2 episodes more.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: CalBears96 on February 01, 2022, 02:33:01 PM
Wheel of Time I do not get.

I have a buddy who swears it's better than GOT and I could barely get past the first episode... The Witcher was better to me.

If we compare the books, The Wheel of Time vs. A Song of Ice and Fire (which Game of Thrones is based on), then I like TWoT slightly more. TWoT if my favorite fantasy series. ASoIaF would have been in second place if Martin would ever finish the series, but he won't, so I place Lord of the Rings at 2nd place. TWoT is mostly fantasy with some politics while ASoIaF is political drama in a medieval setting, with some fantasy elements such as dragons.

Robert Jordan wanted to pay homage to LotR, so most of book 1 (The Eye of The World) is pretty much ripping of Fellowship of the Ring. Only in the 2nd book, The Great Hunt, does Jordan starts his only writing. Even as a reader, TWoT starts off pretty slow, so I could see why some people get turned off.

Now, about the shows, David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, the show runners, did a great job at adapting the books into the show, until they ran out of source material. So, the first 4 seasons of GoT, which adapted the first 3 books, were fantastic. Season 5 is where things started going downhill. Books 4 and 5 (which happens simultaneously in the story timeline) started introducing too many characters. Apparently, D&D didn't want to drag the show out, so they started killing off characters that are still alive in the books or completely cutting out a lot of characters. Supposedly, season 6 was based on the outline of book 6, which is still unfinished and probably never released and seasons 7 and 8 were based on book 7. However, since D&D killed off and cut out so many characters, they probably ended up changing the story/ending, which is why the final season was so much hated.

As for the Wheel of Time show, I think it's a pile of dog shit. Rafe Judkins, the show runner, probably didn't read the books, because he seemed to have made up a lot of stuff that didn't exist in the books or changed a lot of things. My brother didn't read the books and he thought it was pretty good. So I told him to not read the books so that he could continue to enjoy the show. Either way, the show sucks and I'm extremely disappointed. I'll watch season 2 to see if they finally get back to the books. If not, I'll have to drop it.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: momopi on February 01, 2022, 02:41:10 PM
So the author (Robert Jordan) of Wheel of Time was a writer for the Conan the Barbarian franchise in 1980s, and despite the movies, the novels was not a big hit.  Seeing the success of TSR's Dragonlance novel series probably made the publisher (TOR) nudge Robert Jordan to publish an original fantasy series.

I did not read all the books in Wheel of Time series.  It was OK but not very memorable to me.  In contrast I still remember Robert Asprin's (Sci-Fi) Tambu and its commentary on decisions made with B.A.D. (Best Available Data).  I read that book over 30 years ago and still remember it.  It's long out of print but you can get used paperbacks for about $2-$3.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 01, 2022, 03:58:24 PM
Cobra Kai is so funny to me.

The storyline isn't that good, the martial arts is bleh... but I keep watching it due to nostalgia.

I marked out last season when they brought back some old characters from KK1 and KK2. :)

It languished on YouTube Red... but is popular on... you guessed it... Netflix.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on March 07, 2022, 08:27:29 PM
I picked up nflx when it was @ 360.  Lucky so far.
sometimes stuff gets oversold....but I tend to hold too long.

Might be able to pick up more shares under $350 soon.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 10, 2022, 02:25:42 PM
George R.R. Martin admits he made less progress in 2021 than 2020 on the next Game of Thrones book

"Yes, of course I am still working on The Winds of Winter," Martin wrote. "I have stated that a hundred times in a hundred venues, having to restate it endlessly is just wearisome. I made a lot of progress on Winds in 2020, and less in 2021… but 'less' is not 'none.'"

https://news.yahoo.com/george-r-r-martin-admits-180651374.html
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: momopi on March 21, 2022, 04:06:22 PM
I picked up nflx when it was @ 360.  Lucky so far.
sometimes stuff gets oversold....but I tend to hold too long.
Might be able to pick up more shares under $350 soon.

With higher prices on everything from food to gas, there'll be less discretionary income to spend on expensive entertainment.  Netflix subscription cost $10+/month and is bundled with some services, such as T-mobile account.  My $0.02 ($0.04 w/inflation) is that Netflix will probably do OK.  I bought some stocks on dip.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 21, 2022, 04:13:47 PM
Does Ryan Reynolds have NFLX stock? Seems like all his new movies are going NFLX first.

The Adam Project was okay... typical smart aleck Reynolds character... not sure if he can play anything else.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Danimal on April 19, 2022, 08:59:46 PM
I picked up nflx when it was @ 360.  Lucky so far.
sometimes stuff gets oversold....but I tend to hold too long.

Netflix is having a fire sale tomorrow. If you still hold some shares, you are holding them too long,
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 19, 2022, 09:03:32 PM
I picked up nflx when it was @ 360.  Lucky so far.
sometimes stuff gets oversold....but I tend to hold too long.

Netflix is having a fire sale tomorrow. If you still hold some shares, you are holding them too long,

BOOM!
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: zubs on April 20, 2022, 09:19:55 AM
Bad pick by me...lost the miss cleo belt.

Going back to watergun batman.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 20, 2022, 10:34:12 AM
Bad pick by me...lost the miss cleo belt.

Going back to watergun batman.

Buy more. Dollar cost averaging. :)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: momopi on April 20, 2022, 12:56:51 PM
I had a couple netflix lowball limit orders that got executed this morning...  then it dropped some more.  @_@;;
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 20, 2022, 01:34:22 PM
"FORTUNE FAVOR THE BRAVE",,,,,this is when the KING get up and dance....


Peak at 695 ----- currently 225. Is this the low? Have we hit the floored?

My spidy senses tell me, we just getting started.

Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: CalBears96 on April 20, 2022, 01:41:42 PM
Most likely, it's going to drop below $200. Probably $180 is the floor?
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: momopi on April 21, 2022, 03:17:57 PM
:(  I think my limit orders executed at around $230.  I dumped it at small loss.
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: Liar Loan on July 01, 2022, 04:42:10 PM
This is a trend worth watching...

(https://external-preview.redd.it/j3QUpm9eYAHykBC7qku22s0wmalfOEV537H-C0gCnNA.png?auto=webp&s=f86630a41525e3f45ff87d0ff91632dacf8177cb)
Title: Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 01, 2022, 05:30:53 PM
We still have about 2x more job openings versus unemployed folks and we are well below a 4% unemployment rate.
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