Talk Irvine

General => Real Estate => Irvine Real Estate => Topic started by: irvinehomeowner on March 29, 2019, 07:58:43 AM

Title: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 29, 2019, 07:58:43 AM
Okay, so I've been trying to find an example of some closed resales on Redfin last year to compare to a closed resale today to see how much savings we are talking if you waited.

I used the criteria of SFR, 4br/3ba, 2250sft+, 1 year of closed sales and tried to find something in the same general area.

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/filter/sort=lo-price,property-type=house,min-beds=4,min-baths=3,min-sqft=2.25k-sqft,include=sold-1yr

This follows along the line of what price range/product most TI members are looking for (the middle finger graph: https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16641.0.html) and also if I were shopping last year and now, it's the stock I would be looking at.

The lowest price listings were all closed last year... starting at $799k for this one:

4br/3ba 2655sft sold 7/31/18
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Murasaki-St-92617/home/22790592

Not sure what is up with that one because it seems like $799k is a low price, it looks like it's campus housing but I'm not familiar with that area.

I think the lowest one that sold this year is in West Irvine for $880k

5br/3ba 2268sft sold 2/26/18
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Proclamation-Way-92602/home/4793117

But there were 3 resales that sold lower last year:

$833k 4br/3ba 2591sft sold 9/17/18 (comments say it's a fixer upper)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/11-Blazing-Star-92604/home/4683713

$865k 4br/3ba 2344sft sold 8/31/18 (3CWG!!)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/13791-Stampede-Cir-92620/home/4776602

$870k 5br/3ba 2626sft sold 4/19/18 (another 3CWG!!)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4091-Blackfin-Ave-92620/home/4777857

This is by no means and in-depth data analysis, I just sorted by price (within the search criteria) and these were the first ones to come up. Maybe there are better savings once you get to the $1m-1.5m range.

Maybe one of you can find better examples but I think it's going to skew as a push because it seems just on first glance that prices are around the same or even slightly higher (at least for the search criteria I mentioned above).

Now I understand price lags (that was mentioned in the poll thread) but at the same time, Irvine seems to adjust up more quickly than down. Just looking at Trulia and the Irvine trend graph already shows an uptick of prices from a median of $810k in Feb to $815k in March.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Are the new homes cheaper this year than last year? How is Delano doing? :)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Kenkoko on March 29, 2019, 10:07:42 AM
Why limit your search criteria that much if you are trying to find overall price decline ? 2250 sqft seems like a weird number to me too.

Pretty much everything we looked at had dropped 10% or more. I posted these in another thread but here it is again. There are exact same model same floor plan and same sqft. (Marigold plan 3 in Cypress Village)

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Rockcress-92618/home/112722299

Sold for 930k in 2019.

This very same plan 3 was closing at 1.05 mil and 1.06 mil in 2018.

This one sold for 1.05 mil
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/74-Scented-Violet-92620/home/58557049

This one sold for 1.068 mil
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/55-Hanging-Gdn-92618/home/112719945

The ones we made offers in Quail Hill also dropped 10% or more. The home we are about to close is still listed above 950k asking price and we will close for just above 870k. I think you will see more and more of these lowered sales comp soon.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: zubs on March 29, 2019, 10:13:56 AM
From this redfin graph of 92620, it looks like prices are still going up.


(https://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small/2019_03_29/2/38413/MEDIAN_CONDO_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png)


How accurate is the redfin graph?
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: zubs on March 29, 2019, 10:29:36 AM
I just noticed the graph above is for condos.
Here is redfins graph for houses


(https://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small/2019_03_29/2/38413/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png)


So it looks like a nice drop there for houses but not condos.


This coincides with what USC has been saying.  cheaper property is still hot while expensive property is a buyers market.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on March 29, 2019, 11:22:25 AM
Oh, I thought SFH or houses would be more stable in times of enduring.

What's going on?
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 29, 2019, 11:58:45 AM
Why limit your search criteria that much if you are trying to find overall price decline ? 2250 sqft seems like a weird number to me too.

Because there was a discussion about what type of houses readers of TI were looking for. So the poll (I posted the link) leaned towards $1m+ homes and the criteria for those homes are usually 4/3s. I originally was going to use 2000sft but 2250 just seemed a bit bigger because some listing agents like to fudge a 1900sft home as 2000sft. I probably should have used 2500sft.

I'm not looking for an overall price decline, I'm looking for a price decline in the homes that I would be interested in... my thread... my rules. :)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 29, 2019, 12:00:57 PM
I just noticed the graph above is for condos.
Here is redfins graph for houses


(https://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small/2019_03_29/2/38413/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png)


So it looks like a nice drop there for houses but not condos.

Yes, looks like a nice drop but am I wrong or does it show the prices going back up? A slowdown is supposed to continue to be slow right?
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Cares on March 29, 2019, 01:27:43 PM
Here's an interesting trend graph based on all MLS data. $/sqft for Irvine detached homes with 3+ bedrooms. Typically new home build data doesn't make it into the MLS so this is mostly "resale" data.

From the peak of last year detached products took about a 4% dip in $/sqft. Compare to attached homes taking about an 8% dip in $/sqft. So Mety your assumption is correct that SFH (or detached) homes are more "steady" during times like these.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Cares on March 29, 2019, 01:39:43 PM
Here's a graph with IHO's criteria. Based on $/sqft it still is going down or flat (slow).
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Kings on March 29, 2019, 01:39:59 PM

The lowest price listings were all closed last year... starting at $799k for this one:

4br/3ba 2655sft sold 7/31/18
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Murasaki-St-92617/home/22790592

Not sure what is up with that one because it seems like $799k is a low price, it looks like it's campus housing but I'm not familiar with that area.

if i'm not mistaken, homes in this area are strictly for uci staff / employees and are subsidized and/or owned in some part by the school.  not entirely sure, so someone correct me if i'm wrong.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Cares on March 29, 2019, 01:45:30 PM

The lowest price listings were all closed last year... starting at $799k for this one:

4br/3ba 2655sft sold 7/31/18
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Murasaki-St-92617/home/22790592

Not sure what is up with that one because it seems like $799k is a low price, it looks like it's campus housing but I'm not familiar with that area.

if i'm not mistaken, homes in this area are strictly for uci staff / employees and are subsidized and/or owned in some part by the school.  not entirely sure, so someone correct me if i'm wrong.

Looks about right. Tax records show it was owned by the Regeants. And all owners after it took a loan from the UC home loan program.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on March 29, 2019, 03:05:46 PM
So no one has any idea why SRH are suffering while condos are doing well?

BTW, I believe Delano is mostly sold out.  :D
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: mads on March 29, 2019, 03:12:51 PM
Probably cos condos have a lower starting price than SFRs and are available to a greater pool of buyers/ investors? Sub 800k market being more competitive
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on March 29, 2019, 03:48:00 PM
But the reason or argument people make is that SFR will endure better than condos and attached ones especially when there is slowdown/price reduction. The total opposite is happening. Does that not look unusual or suspicious to anyone? Or is it just that argument is fake news.

Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Cares on March 29, 2019, 03:54:10 PM
Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: zubs on March 29, 2019, 03:54:47 PM
I just noticed the graph above is for condos.
Here is redfins graph for houses


(https://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small/2019_03_29/2/38413/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png)


So it looks like a nice drop there for houses but not condos.

Yes, looks like a nice drop but am I wrong or does it show the prices going back up? A slowdown is supposed to continue to be slow right?

The funny thing about that graph is the blue line shows sellers are holding on to their wishing price as closed prices are much lower.  This is only the beginning of the recession.  We got 4 more years of this....perhaps flat to lower.


People with property (old people) will hope for a soft landing.  Renters may want a hard landing...but then they also may lose their job.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on March 29, 2019, 03:59:53 PM
Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: mads on March 29, 2019, 04:12:11 PM
But the reason or argument people make is that SFR will endure better than condos and attached ones especially when there is slowdown/price reduction. The total opposite is happening. Does that not look unusual or suspicious to anyone? Or is it just that argument is fake news.
The # of Buyers who prefer SFRs is greater, and the # of SFRs used as primary residences is most likely higher too. Problem as pointed above is the SFR Irvine? hype train sometimes leads to unrealistic list prices and supply> demand.
The # of people who can afford cheaper older SFRs/condos is higher, and will include more investors. These will also be the first ones to be sold off in a difficult market, either by investor owners, when they don’t break even anymore/want to liquidate or simply because these are considered less desirable? people who bought these as primary residences may also be less financially resilient or are viewed as such in a recession? i live in a condo and am happy, so no offense to anyone here.
Read somewhere that another reason why homebuilders have been mostly into higher end homes (apart from higher margins) was because post-recession, only the well-off could afford to buy homes anymore.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on March 29, 2019, 04:27:27 PM
Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

That toll road is like getting congested. (That’s what I hear and I have driven it) They should have built more lanes or something.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on March 29, 2019, 04:32:03 PM
Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

That toll road is like getting congested. (That’s what I hear and I have driven it) They should have built more lanes or something.

That may not be novel.

Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: mads on March 29, 2019, 04:34:06 PM
Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

Is it really urban living though?  :P
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on March 29, 2019, 04:34:22 PM
Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

That toll road is like getting congested. (That’s what I hear and I have driven it) They should have built more lanes or something.

That may not be novel.

I don’t know. (just saying)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on March 29, 2019, 04:59:04 PM
Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

Is it really urban living though?  :P

Well, depends how you look at it.

Having Novel Park homes definitely will sound buffer for other GP homes.

On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.

Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: mads on March 29, 2019, 05:08:33 PM
On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.
Agree, i guess its only the lux townhomes near CPW, thats IUSD and new built.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 01, 2019, 08:30:17 AM
Pretty much everything we looked at had dropped 10% or more. I posted these in another thread but here it is again. There are exact same model same floor plan and same sqft. (Marigold plan 3 in Cypress Village)

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Rockcress-92618/home/112722299

Sold for 930k in 2019.

This very same plan 3 was closing at 1.05 mil and 1.06 mil in 2018.

This one sold for 1.05 mil
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/74-Scented-Violet-92620/home/58557049

This one sold for 1.068 mil
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/55-Hanging-Gdn-92618/home/112719945

Okay, finally had time to look at these listings.

I think this is a bit misleading. There is a location premium you are not mentioning here. The Rockcress property is closer to Sand Canyon whereas the other 2 listings are interior locations.

Also, while this may be subjective, both Hanging Garden and Scented Violet have nicer upgrades based on the pictures (the backyard of Hanging Garden is best).

I tried to look at sold prices on other listings in this area but I'm not very familiar with Cypress Village Marigold tracts so not sure where others just like this Plan 3 are located to get a bigger sample size.

Quote
The ones we made offers in Quail Hill also dropped 10% or more. The home we are about to close is still listed above 950k asking price and we will close for just above 870k. I think you will see more and more of these lowered sales comp soon.

So I'm more familiar with Quail Hill so I would like to see what you are talking about here because it may be the same type of differences that are reflective of location/upgrades rather than apple-to-apples discounts.

And as I've said in other threads, 5-10% is not that significant if you are looking at a 5-10 year stay, are shopping the $1m+ range and are financing. On one of our homes we saved 10% sacrificing location and looking back, it wasn't worth it. We actually might still be in that area today if we picked a more expensive home with a better location.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on April 01, 2019, 08:37:22 AM
Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

Is it really urban living though?  :P

Well, depends how you look at it.

Having Novel Park homes definitely will sound buffer for other GP homes.

On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.

Don’t discount it too much. If they play their cards right, the kid might be top of their class for the school assigned to cpw.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 01, 2019, 09:47:59 AM
IHO,

Having actually toured all 3 properties personally, I would agree locations were a factor and the backyard of Hanging Garden was the best of those 3. But the price difference was a whopping 13%. The backyard difference was so minimal in terms of cost to fix it up ( no more than a few thousand bucks)
The location difference to us, in terms of price,  would be no more than a couple percentage as the home was not right on Sand Canyon just closed to.

You called my post misleading but I never claimed the homes were exactly the same. I only said they were the same model, same floor plan, and same SQFT. I think you blaming the 13% price difference on location/backyard (and doing so by looking at a few online photos) instead of how much the market had changed is misleading.

To your 2nd point " if you are looking at a 5-10 year stay...."

You can make almost anything bend in your favor if you tweak the premise of the discussion enough. I can easily say if you are looking at a 3-5 year stay and the 10% price difference will feel gigantic.

This would not have been the first time I disagree with you on using 5-10 year as a default. Simply because of the fact that newest studies have shown people changed homes every 5 years. Also personally, I never had a primary home for more than 4 years (before selling or turning it into a rental)

I mentioned this in my posts when we had similar discussions. People are moving more and more often.  The home price difference plus the 6% transaction cost will become bigger and bigger factors. The old thinking of focusing on 20/30 years long term simply does not apply to how people live today.
 
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on April 01, 2019, 10:20:11 AM
Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

Is it really urban living though?  :P

Well, depends how you look at it.

Having Novel Park homes definitely will sound buffer for other GP homes.

On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.

Don’t discount it too much. If they play their cards right, the kid might be top of their class for the school assigned to cpw.

I actually like some of CPW homes.
I would have bought one if they didn't have ridiculous HOAs.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 01, 2019, 10:47:53 AM
IHO,

Having actually toured all 3 properties personally, I would agree locations were a factor and the backyard of Hanging Garden was the best of those 3. But the price difference was a whopping 13%. The backyard difference was so minimal in terms of cost to fix it up ( no more than a few thousand bucks)
The location difference to us, in terms of price,  would be no more than a couple percentage as the home was not right on Sand Canyon just closed to.

You called my post misleading but I never claimed the homes were exactly the same. I only said they were the same model, same floor plan, and same SQFT. I think you blaming the 13% price difference on location/backyard (and doing so by looking at a few online photos) instead of how much the market had changed is misleading.

I actually said a "bit" misleading. Just like you called out my "amazing" prices in Woodbridge, I should be allowed to point out some flaws in your example.

And again, this *is* based on my premise because that was my original reasoning on whether or not you should wait (which we've discussed in other threads).

For you, that "whopping" 13% is significant to wait... for me (and again... my opinion, not everyone else's), especially after buying a house next to a busy road, that 13% is **not** worth it.

And I'm not trying to be misleading, that's why I asked for a larger sample size than just 3 homes, that's also why this thread exists. You got upset at the other poster when he posted singular examples of Woodbridge pricing and it wasn't until I showed you the data from Redfin comparing each of the neighborhoods that you saw what I was saying... I'm just asking for reciprocity.

Quote
To your 2nd point " if you are looking at a 5-10 year stay...."

You can make almost anything bend in your favor if you tweak the premise of the discussion enough. I can easily say if you are looking at a 3-5 year stay and the 10% price difference will feel gigantic.

This would not have been the first time I disagree with you on using 5-10 year as a default. Simply because of the fact that newest studies have shown people changed homes every 5 years. Also personally, I never had a primary home for more than 4 years (before selling or turning it into a rental)

I mentioned this in my posts when we had similar discussions. People are moving more and more often.  The home price difference plus the 6% transaction cost will become bigger and bigger factors. The old thinking of focusing on 20/30 years long term simply does not apply to how people live today.

For this price range, $1m+ (the same range as in the poll), you may find the move-up time greater than 5 years. I **also** have usually moved less than 5 years except for our last home (and the one before that would have been longer too if not for the bad location), so I think that's a push.

Again, my viewpoint is if you are planning to stay longer than 5 years, price differences may not be the top factor when buying.

You always bring up the 6% transaction cost as a loss if you have to sell, but isn't that more of a reason to stay than to move? To purchase a home that you want to stay in for over 5 years and that is in a good location?

And again, I speak from hindsight... I felt like most of you before, always trying to time a price drop so that I could save even just 5%. In the end, what mattered most if getting the right house for a price I could afford. We paid much more for our current home than we wanted to (a whopping 20% more!), but this is by far the best home we have lived in.

I hope the one you are closing on is what you were looking for.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on April 01, 2019, 11:05:22 AM
6%???  Man, that's some old school right there.
Use Redfin and pay 1-1.5% listing fees.


It's interesting most people no matter where they live, they tend to love where they are currently at especially if you are the home owner. I haven't really seen anyone who would say,
"Man, I live in PS and I hate it here."

They all tend to say,
"I love it here cuz it's so much more chill and far away from than any other Irvine areas."

But then you move out and say,
"I used to live in PS and I hated every moment of it for it was too far from everything."
"I used to live in GP and boy those MR was killing me."
"I used to live in EW and I forgot I was in U.S."

We all love where we are now, but not so much love for the previous one. So my question is do you still think you would say it was the best home even after you move to somewhere else?

Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 01, 2019, 11:28:32 AM
IHO, I always appreciated honest discussions and will gladly admit when I’m proven wrong like you did with our discussion on Woodbridge prices.

I strongly feel the biggest part of the 13% price difference in Marigold plan 3 is due to Market condition, not location, certainly not the minimal backyard. We disagree.

I keep bringing up the 6% transaction cost because it’s something many people do not think about in a bull market. But it will hurt a lot when you must sell in a bear market. It could easily double your loss when market dips 5%.

I already mentioned this in the other thread, but we are buying an investment property ( a 1031 exchange for my parents) The consideration is obviously different than someone buying a primary home. The numbers must make sense therefore my big emphasis on price, transaction cost, and Irvine rental cap rates.

My stance on primary home buying is different than you. While I understand there are other factors in play when deciding on a primary home purchase, I do not think the investment consideration part goes out of the window. Due to high RE prices, many homebuyers in Irvine are buying their primary home as a combination of housing need and investment. Too many people I see are stretching DTI to buy homes in Irvine. This makes them less adaptable to newer economic challenges that I see are coming. We are already 10 years into this recovery / expansion. For Irvine home prices to go up and outperforme inflation significantly, we need the US economy to stay strong and Irvine to become Silicon Valley of the south. Frankly I don’t see that. I see much smaller possible upside going forward and bigger possible downside.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 01, 2019, 11:31:32 AM
6%???  Man, that's some old school right there.
Use Redfin and pay 1-1.5% listing fees.

Even if you pay just 1.5% listing fees, you still need to offer 2.5% commission for buyer agent to be competitive. That's 4% already before we consider escrow cost, closing cost, cost to get your home ready, cost to move etc etc.

You can definitely do it of less than 6% but I don't think it's crazy to use 6% to calculate the math.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on April 01, 2019, 12:05:41 PM
6%???  Man, that's some old school right there.
Use Redfin and pay 1-1.5% listing fees.

Even if you pay just 1.5% listing fees, you still need to offer 2.5% commission for buyer agent to be competitive. That's 4% already before we consider escrow cost, closing cost, cost to get your home ready, cost to move etc etc.

You can definitely do it of less than 6% but I don't think it's crazy to use 6% to calculate the math.

Oh, 6% transaction cost. Gotcha. For some reason, I thought you were saying 6% agent fee. My bad.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 01, 2019, 12:09:49 PM
I strongly feel the biggest part of the 13% price difference in Marigold plan 3 is due to Market condition, not location, certainly not the minimal backyard. We disagree.
I will agree that there is some price dip due to the cyclical season, but how big? Once again, this is one or two homes, that's why I made this thread, so we can see more examples.

And even if location and upgrades were only 5% of this price difference, 8% to me is not *significant*.

Quote
I keep bringing up the 6% transaction cost because it’s something many people do not think about in a bull market. But it will hurt a lot when you must sell in a bear market. It could easily double your loss when market dips 5%.

Sure, but this throws away my premise that you won't sell. To be fair, you can't just discard my caveats.

Quote
I already mentioned this in the other thread, but we are buying an investment property ( a 1031 exchange for my parents) The consideration is obviously different than someone buying a primary home. The numbers must make sense therefore my big emphasis on price, transaction cost, and Irvine rental cap rates.

I agree.

Quote
My stance on primary home buying is different than you. While I understand there are other factors in play when deciding on a primary home purchase, I do not think the investment consideration part goes out of the window. Due to high RE prices, many homebuyers in Irvine are buying their primary home as a combination of housing need and investment. Too many people I see are stretching DTI to buy homes in Irvine. This makes them less adaptable to newer economic challenges that I see are coming. We are already 10 years into this recovery / expansion. For Irvine home prices to go up and outperforme inflation significantly, we need the US economy to stay strong and Irvine to become Silicon Valley of the south. Frankly I don’t see that. I see much smaller possible upside going forward and bigger possible downside.

I've never said the investment part goes out the window.

But to me, at least in my experience, most real estate in Irvine appreciates over the long haul. I've said before that I've stretched with each home we bought, and each time, it's worked out, so maybe that's a gamble for most, and at today's prices, I'm not sure I would do the same thing. However, if you can afford it, and it's the home you want, small price discounts for 5-10% (the typical drop the last 4 years)... or even 15%, become less of a consideration.

Maybe I'm not as down on the economy as you are. Maybe because you think AI might have a hand in killing tons of jobs but to me I see that as an evolution to create more opportunities and a better life for everyone.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 01, 2019, 12:18:12 PM
It's interesting most people no matter where they live, they tend to love where they are currently at especially if you are the home owner. I haven't really seen anyone who would say,
"Man, I live in PS and I hate it here."

They all tend to say,
"I love it here cuz it's so much more chill and far away from than any other Irvine areas."

But then you move out and say,
"I used to live in PS and I hated every moment of it for it was too far from everything."
"I used to live in GP and boy those MR was killing me."
"I used to live in EW and I forgot I was in U.S."

We all love where we are now, but not so much love for the previous one. So my question is do you still think you would say it was the best home even after you move to somewhere else?

So, to clarify, this is the best micro house location (IE not backing a major road/freeway) I've lived in. Previous homes weren't always in the ideal location because we were more concerned about price (well, we did rent a house in nice location at one time). But, for a macro location, I would probably prefer to live in one of 3 places in Irvine: Quail Hill, Woodbridge or Turtle Rock.

But I doubt we are moving anytime soon, maybe when the kids are on their own we will downsize and retire to one of those 3 places... or just move out of Irvine altogether.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on April 01, 2019, 12:44:35 PM
6%???  Man, that's some old school right there.
Use Redfin and pay 1-1.5% listing fees.

Even if you pay just 1.5% listing fees, you still need to offer 2.5% commission for buyer agent to be competitive. That's 4% already before we consider escrow cost, closing cost, cost to get your home ready, cost to move etc etc.

You can definitely do it of less than 6% but I don't think it's crazy to use 6% to calculate the math.

Oh, 6% transaction cost. Gotcha. For some reason, I thought you were saying 6% agent fee. My bad.

The cost of selling a home is pricey. It’s not like trading stocks. Maybe someday.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on April 01, 2019, 01:15:27 PM
It's interesting most people no matter where they live, they tend to love where they are currently at especially if you are the home owner. I haven't really seen anyone who would say,
"Man, I live in PS and I hate it here."

They all tend to say,
"I love it here cuz it's so much more chill and far away from than any other Irvine areas."

But then you move out and say,
"I used to live in PS and I hated every moment of it for it was too far from everything."
"I used to live in GP and boy those MR was killing me."
"I used to live in EW and I forgot I was in U.S."

We all love where we are now, but not so much love for the previous one. So my question is do you still think you would say it was the best home even after you move to somewhere else?

So, to clarify, this is the best micro house location (IE not backing a major road/freeway) I've lived in. Previous homes weren't always in the ideal location because we were more concerned about price (well, we did rent a house in nice location at one time). But, for a macro location, I would probably prefer to live in one of 3 places in Irvine: Quail Hill, Woodbridge or Turtle Rock.

But I doubt we are moving anytime soon, maybe when the kids are on their own we will downsize and retire to one of those 3 places... or just move out of Irvine altogether.

My parents were thinking of downsizing, but the cost of monthly pay would actually go up when they move to a smaller house because of the inflation.
This is one of the reasons why boomers are not moving and millennials can't buy resale homes. Thus home builders make new homes with either higher MR price tag or on a toxic wasted land with tri levels.

QH, WB, TR homes prices might end up even higher than what it is today by the time you want to downsize. Do you think you would still move then?
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on April 01, 2019, 01:22:34 PM
6%???  Man, that's some old school right there.
Use Redfin and pay 1-1.5% listing fees.

Even if you pay just 1.5% listing fees, you still need to offer 2.5% commission for buyer agent to be competitive. That's 4% already before we consider escrow cost, closing cost, cost to get your home ready, cost to move etc etc.

You can definitely do it of less than 6% but I don't think it's crazy to use 6% to calculate the math.

Oh, 6% transaction cost. Gotcha. For some reason, I thought you were saying 6% agent fee. My bad.

The cost of selling a home is pricey. It’s not like trading stocks. Maybe someday.

That's why people should have sold a year ago when there was MAXROI could've been made.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 01, 2019, 01:39:56 PM
QH, WB, TR homes prices might end up even higher than what it is today by the time you want to downsize. Do you think you would still move then?

Well, if we stay in our home for at least 10 more years, I figure we should have more than half paid off (if you taken into account appreciation/inflation, the equity is even more so). That difference when we sell should be able to buy a smaller place or at least pay it down where mortgage is very minimal.

But you never know, if attached condos are $1m today, I can imagine a small 1-story 2-3br SFR in Woodbridge or Turtle Rock could be $2m in 2030 (at least even Quail Hill won't have MRs by then). :)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on April 01, 2019, 02:05:29 PM
QH, WB, TR homes prices might end up even higher than what it is today by the time you want to downsize. Do you think you would still move then?

Well, if we stay in our home for at least 10 more years, I figure we should have more than half paid off (if you taken into account appreciation/inflation, the equity is even more so). That difference when we sell should be able to buy a smaller place or at least pay it down where mortgage is very minimal.

But you never know, if attached condos are $1m today, I can imagine a small 1-story 2-3br SFR in Woodbridge or Turtle Rock could be $2m in 2030 (at least even Quail Hill won't have MRs by then). :)

You kid, but you never know. If no slowdown occurs and only seasonal flows keep happening, $2m for attached Delano by 2030 is actually not an impossibility.

BTW, are you going to stop your kids if they say they will buy Delano?  :)

Also WB and TR's HOAs will be around $600 for townhomes. But you said you would only buy SFH so no worries.

Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on April 01, 2019, 02:12:40 PM
QH, WB, TR homes prices might end up even higher than what it is today by the time you want to downsize. Do you think you would still move then?

Well, if we stay in our home for at least 10 more years, I figure we should have more than half paid off (if you taken into account appreciation/inflation, the equity is even more so). That difference when we sell should be able to buy a smaller place or at least pay it down where mortgage is very minimal.

But you never know, if attached condos are $1m today, I can imagine a small 1-story 2-3br SFR in Woodbridge or Turtle Rock could be $2m in 2030 (at least even Quail Hill won't have MRs by then). :)

You kid, but you never know. If no slowdown occurs and only seasonal flows keep happening, $2m for attached Delano by 2030 is actually not an impossibility.

BTW, are you going to stop your kids if they say they will buy Delano?  :)

Also WB and TR's HOAs will be around $600 for townhomes. But you said you would only buy SFH so no worries.

Housing and now the economy slowdown (I don’t know)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 01, 2019, 03:07:06 PM

But to me, at least in my experience, most real estate in Irvine appreciates over the long haul. I've said before that I've stretched with each home we bought, and each time, it's worked out, so maybe that's a gamble for most, and at today's prices, I'm not sure I would do the same thing. However, if you can afford it, and it's the home you want, small price discounts for 5-10% (the typical drop the last 4 years)... or even 15%, become less of a consideration.

Maybe I'm not as down on the economy as you are. Maybe because you think AI might have a hand in killing tons of jobs but to me I see that as an evolution to create more opportunities and a better life for everyone.

I often debate with you on this because your premise is very different from the overall trend. Of course, we can continue to buck the trend and discuss not selling at all or staying 10 years (doubling the average), but that doesn’t achieve much else other than your specific situation.

I understand why you would come to your conclusion regarding Irvine home prices, but I disagree with you.

8% drop in a few months is significant to me. Which is why I urge people who are still not fully committed in Irvine RE to exercise caution. My family’s business is in international trading. I feel confident that we have a good pulse on the global economy and it is not doing great. All it took for the recent slowdown in Irvine home price was some marginal reduction of FCB buying and slight mortgage rate increase. What would happen if US economy actually slows down? It's not unthinkable. We are already 10 years into this recovery / expansion and there are already signs showing a slowdown looming. What happens when China and world economy slows down with it?

I have argued before that it’s FCBs that’s propping up Irvine home prices to 2018 levels. What will happen when FCB buying slows to a trickle? Or worse when some FCBs mass exit and sell off in a relative short time span? To me it’s always better to plan for the worst and hope for the best. I am against pushing DTI to max or near max levels to buy homes that have never ending Mello Roos.


I cringe when I hear people say that the great recession of 2008 is once in a life time scenario. Either they don’t expect to live very long which is a bit sad (life expectancy in USA did drop 3 years in a roll) Or they have no idea how profound and widespread the impact of the incoming disruptions we will see from massive adaptation of AI and automation.

I was just at the car dealership over the weekend. The sales rep was showing my 2.5-year-old daughter how to operate the buttons and the steering wheel when it struck me that she will probably never drive a car (or need to)

We are about to decimate 25% - 40% of jobs in the USA by 2030 and most people have given it close to zero consideration on how that will impact our economy. I get that we are protected by many layers of bubbles. We do live in the greatest country on earth and California / Orange county / Irvine are bubbles to the extreme. But this problem will be too big to not have significant economic impact on Irvine.

To your point, yes, I agree we will eventually evolve and find a way. I am not fear mongering that we will see destruction of our country or humanity, but the process will be extremely disruptive and brutal.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: bones on April 01, 2019, 04:24:53 PM

8% drop in a few months is significant to me. Which is why I urge people who are still not fully committed in Irvine RE to exercise caution. My family’s business is in international trading. I feel confident that we have a good pulse on the global economy and it is not doing great. All it took for the recent slowdown in Irvine home price was some marginal reduction of FCB buying and slight mortgage rate increase. What would happen if US economy actually slows down? It's not unthinkable. We are already 10 years into this recovery / expansion and there are already signs showing a slowdown looming. What happens when China and world economy slows down with it?

I have argued before that it’s FCBs that’s propping up Irvine home prices to 2018 levels. What will happen when FCB buying slows to a trickle? Or worse when some FCBs mass exit and sell off in a relative short time span? To me it’s always better to plan for the worst and hope for the best. I am against pushing DTI to max or near max levels to buy homes that have never ending Mello Roos.


I think that's basically what this argument boils down to.  There are some people on this board who have been Irvine/OC homeowners for a very long time and have probably built up a fair amount of equity either through a long hold or sale of property through the years.  To those people, 8% drop is probably not that significant (even though I agree with you that it is, especially if you have to transact RIGHT NOW).  But to those who are stretching to buy a $700k condo, 8% is definitely significant.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 01, 2019, 05:03:16 PM
@kenkoko:

Sorry, I can't imagine a global slowdown. Just like I can't imagine another world war. We are all too connected.

Maybe I'm just too optimistic.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: zubs on April 08, 2019, 10:54:49 AM
A friend sent me this on how the economy works.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0)


If you have 30 min. give it a watch.


In it he mentions the long term debt cycle.  Deleveraging happens every 75 - 100 years.  So 1929, and then again 2008.
If you are to believe this video, we won't have another big de-leveraging for another 75 years, although we'll still have the short term 7-10 years peaks and troughs.



Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 08, 2019, 02:34:42 PM
AI has other plans. :)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 08, 2019, 02:52:36 PM
Life too short to wait for the lloooonnnngggg bottom. Just do it and live happily ever after.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on April 08, 2019, 03:49:05 PM
Tax season is almost over.
Would it give much impact on the market?


Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on April 08, 2019, 03:49:42 PM
Life too short to wait for the lloooonnnngggg bottom. Just do it and live happily ever after.

Buffet got a deal when he bought shares of banks during the financial crisis.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on April 08, 2019, 03:50:08 PM
Tax season is almost over.
Would it give much impact on the market?

I wouldn’t know. I haven’t done it yet.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on April 08, 2019, 04:37:11 PM
Tax season is almost over.
Would it give much impact on the market?

I wouldn’t know. I haven’t done it yet.

One week left.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 19, 2019, 07:27:25 AM
So did anyone find any more examples of significant savings other than the 2 houses kenkoko pointed out?
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Mety on May 15, 2019, 02:49:00 PM
Copying and pasting here as well per IHO's request.

Here are some examples. Please check the price histories. Not all of them are under super recent categories, but the point is the waiting situation instead of buying right away played well between the entire last year and recent.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/110-Confederation-Way-Irvine-CA-92602/25520651_zpid/
This was listed first in 2018 at $980 and finally got sold Feb this year at $808k. You can do the math how much % that is and it's much higher than your 10%. West Irvine is pretty close to NP also.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Keepsake-92618/home/40102842
The buyer would have paid $52k more if bought in Oct. 2018 when first listed. Good thing they waited.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/181-Pathway-92618/home/45377541
$800k to $691k. For real? It was not a short sale either.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/216-Firefly-Irvine-CA-92618/147889373_zpid/
Almost $40k savings? Sure, we can take that. Oh, the interest rate got better also.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/74-Borghese-92618/home/51681127
I saved $270k on this one. Thanks!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Brindisi-92603/home/58555201
Ok, not as much savings, but still $75k reduction sounds good.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/103-Canopy-92603/home/5944496
Almost 10% cuts.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Campanero-E-92620/home/4784525
$900k to $797? Psss..


Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 15, 2019, 04:42:44 PM
@Mety:

Where are the same model comps?
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 16, 2019, 07:01:12 AM
Copying and pasting here as well per IHO's request.

Here are some examples. Please check the price histories. Not all of them are under super recent categories, but the point is the waiting situation instead of buying right away played well between the entire last year and recent.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/110-Confederation-Way-Irvine-CA-92602/25520651_zpid/
This was listed first in 2018 at $980 and finally got sold Feb this year at $808k. You can do the math how much % that is and it's much higher than your 10%. West Irvine is pretty close to NP also.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Keepsake-92618/home/40102842
The buyer would have paid $52k more if bought in Oct. 2018 when first listed. Good thing they waited.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/181-Pathway-92618/home/45377541
$800k to $691k. For real? It was not a short sale either.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/216-Firefly-Irvine-CA-92618/147889373_zpid/
Almost $40k savings? Sure, we can take that. Oh, the interest rate got better also.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/74-Borghese-92618/home/51681127
I saved $270k on this one. Thanks!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Brindisi-92603/home/58555201
Ok, not as much savings, but still $75k reduction sounds good.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/103-Canopy-92603/home/5944496
Almost 10% cuts.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Campanero-E-92620/home/4784525
$900k to $797? Psss..

Way to go Mety. Nice work. I’m sure there’s even more.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2019, 09:13:43 AM
Okay, was finally able to look at some of those homes.

One thing to note is you can't take their original listing price, compare them to their sold price and say that was the discount. We all know people list at dream levels. You need to compare sold prices for same models in 2018 vs sold prices now.

Some of the things I notice with these listings:

1. Most of the discounted ones are in Portola Springs and their sold price looks comparable to what they should be selling for.
2. The Laguna Altura ones are closest to the 405 so the original list may be wish prices and the discount reflects that proximity

Since Laguna Altura is easier to search for, here is a comparison:

Sold in August 2018 for $900k:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/45-Brindisi-92618/home/51681098

Same model soid in Jan 2019 for $1.045m:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/75-Brindisi-92603/home/58555205

Increase of $104k!!!

Smaller model sold for $980k in Oct 2018:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Brindisi-92603/home/5855520

Larger model next door sold for $998K in April 2019:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/67-Brindisi-92603/home/58555202

So these look in line with comps and don't seem to be discounted much from last year. I can probably do the same thing for Portola Springs but I'm less familiar with those models and it will take me more time.

But my question is are these any different from what happens during the yearly low cycles? One can probably go back each year and find similar examples of list vs sale price.

What makes these "significant" versus previous years?
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 16, 2019, 09:19:35 AM
I think we can all agree reducing the price is a reduction in price. (Call it what you want. But the buyer saved money.)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2019, 09:21:45 AM
I think we can all agree reducing the price is a reduction in price. (Call it what you want. But the buyer saved money.)


Not really. You have to compare  the sold price last year to this year.

Using your logic, people save money all the time, slowdown or not... or they overpay all the time when they buy above list price which happens too.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 16, 2019, 09:29:20 AM
Yes I am right.

Chalk another W for me.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 16, 2019, 09:35:51 AM
Just think the way you do and believe nothing happened. Forget what the New Home Comapny and Toll Brothers CEOs statements regarding housing.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 16, 2019, 09:36:38 AM
If your statements are not backed up by facts and are not truthful. Then a person can say it’s propaganda. (Like really fake news/facts)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2019, 10:02:01 AM
Yes I am right.

Chalk another W for me.

Just think the way you do and believe nothing happened. Forget what the New Home Comapny and Toll Brothers CEOs statements regarding housing.

If your statements are not backed up by facts and are not truthful. Then a person can say it’s propaganda. (Like really fake news/facts)

Anyone knows that's not how you determine actual discounts in real estate cycles.

You have to compare sold prices of similar models last year to sold prices this year... not listing/wish price to sold. That is fact not propaganda,

I am not saying nothing happened, I am determining what the extent is and if it's outside the normal ebbs/flows of real estate cycles. So far, a 5-10% drop from last year seems to be within the margin of error and I have yet to see data that proves otherwise. And if prices start going back up (like some charts indicate), that leans toward "seasonality".
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 16, 2019, 10:04:35 AM
But you forgot to mentioned days on the market and and number of listings for sale. YOY
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2019, 10:08:06 AM
But you forgot to mentioned days on the market and and number of listings for sale. YOY

That's more like market conditions. which I agreed about.

Here, we are talking about price because the bottom line is you told people to wait to save money.

My contention when it comes to Irvine real estate, even with the worst market conditions, pricing is very stubborn and timing bargains to get maximum savings is very difficult.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 16, 2019, 10:20:44 AM
Also, you have to consider the Tariff Crisis with China or China economy slowdown. The buyers are not lining up to buy like before.

Also, the salt deduction. People were like buying homes for a big time or small time tax deduction. Some people might say like a legal tax shelter. (But not any more yo!)

Maybe the RE industry should of pushed back like big league. When they were discussing/debating Trump’s tax reform.


Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: zubs on May 16, 2019, 10:36:34 AM
Everything about this economy looks bad and we are about to slide into some shit.
So people are holding their stock investment money in crappy 2.1% savings accounts and state government bonds waiting for the crash.

How will the FED kick these savings account people back into the stock market?  By lowering interest rates.

Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: momopi on May 16, 2019, 11:10:27 AM
Everything about this economy looks bad and we are about to slide into some shit.
So people are holding their stock investment money in crappy 2.1% savings accounts and state government bonds waiting for the crash.
How will the FED kick these savings account people back into the stock market?  By lowering interest rates.

6 month CD @ 2.45% today.  I buy CD ladder and some short term US treasury to stagger redemption dates over 6 month period.  The interest is low and tax inefficient.  I need to study triple tax free muni bonds & bond funds.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 16, 2019, 11:29:21 AM
Everything about this economy looks bad and we are about to slide into some shit.
So people are holding their stock investment money in crappy 2.1% savings accounts and state government bonds waiting for the crash.

How will the FED kick these savings account people back into the stock market?  By lowering interest rates.

People are anticipating the shit to hit the fan and have been playing defensively since last year. No one believe the tariffs will come to fruition and that both side US and China will work things out. And now the tariffs is in full affects. Because of the awareness and the heighten loud decibels level of worst things would happen when the two won’t resolves, it actually soften the blow. Looks at the market and housing, it looking better.

Unless, war breakout with foreign country, I mean military actions. Then all bets are off.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 16, 2019, 11:34:38 AM
Also, you have to consider the Tariff Crisis with China or China economy slowdown. The buyers are not lining up to buy like before.

Also, the salt deduction. People were like buying homes for a big time or small time tax deduction. Some people might say like a legal tax shelter. (But not any more yo!)

Maybe the RE industry should of pushed back like big league. When they were discussing/debating Trump’s tax reform.

Yes, we know about all these things but as I've explained to kenkoko, it will take more than just limiting the buying power of Chinese FCBs to make a big mark in Irvine real estate, where they exit, others will enter... just like Cali companies (shout out to morekaos).

And the Fed will push where the RE industry can't, just like 10 years ago, the Fed knows the how important home prices are and will do things to prevent a free fall.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 17, 2019, 02:27:56 PM
If your statements are not backed up by facts and are not truthful. Then a person can say it’s propaganda. (Like really fake news/facts)


Here are facts from Redfin:

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

Quote
$879K Sale Price
+9.3% since last year
$477 Sale $/Sq. Ft.
+0.53% since last year
Under List Price 1.7%
Days on Market 51
Down Payment 24.7%
Total Homes Sold 233

From Trulia:

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Quote
Irvine market trends indicate an increase of $18,000 (2%) in median home sales over the past year.

From Zillow:

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Quote
The median home value in Irvine is $856,000. Irvine home values have gone up 0.4% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -1.7% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Irvine is $492, which is higher than the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim Metro average of $436. The median price of homes currently listed in Irvine is $999,000 while the median price of homes that sold is $810,700. The median rent price in Irvine is $3,500, which is higher than the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim Metro median of $3,200.

But who knows, maybe that's just a blip and prices are going back down... but that's not usually the case as we move into the summer.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 23, 2019, 11:42:07 AM
Did my “propaganda” silence the slowdowners?
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 23, 2019, 12:17:01 PM
Did my “propaganda” silence the slowdowners?

I think as long as housing continue to stabilize, from flat to 1-3 % yoy, then we will hear crickets.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 23, 2019, 12:38:53 PM
Did my “propaganda” silence the slowdowners?

I think as long as housing continue to stabilize, from flat to 1-3 % yoy, then we will hear crickets.

IF the SALT deduction tax law is repealed then housing is going to pop. (No more legal tax shelter)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 23, 2019, 12:53:47 PM
Did my “propaganda” silence the slowdowners?

I think as long as housing continue to stabilize, from flat to 1-3 % yoy, then we will hear crickets.

IF the SALT deduction tax law is repealed then housing is going to pop. (No more legal tax shelter)

For rental properties, this has no effects. As a matter of facts, it actually boost the ease of rental deductions in my case.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 23, 2019, 01:20:38 PM
Did my “propaganda” silence the slowdowners?

I think as long as housing continue to stabilize, from flat to 1-3 % yoy, then we will hear crickets.

IF the SALT deduction tax law is repealed then housing is going to pop. (No more legal tax shelter)

For rental properties, this has no effects. As a matter of facts, it actually boost the ease of rental deductions in my case.

But there’s less people who own rentals vs people who own homes as a primary residence.

Repeal and Replace the SALT deduction limitation. In my opinion the RE industry should take point on this. (be the lead) Which will drive more sales across the board.

Bring back the American Dream to own a home with the benefit of the tax deductions of course.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 23, 2019, 02:18:17 PM
Did my “propaganda” silence the slowdowners?

I think as long as housing continue to stabilize, from flat to 1-3 % yoy, then we will hear crickets.

IF the SALT deduction tax law is repealed then housing is going to pop. (No more legal tax shelter)

For rental properties, this has no effects. As a matter of facts, it actually boost the ease of rental deductions in my case.

But there’s less people who own rentals vs people who own homes as a primary residence.

Repeal and Replace the SALT deduction limitation. In my opinion the RE industry should take point on this. (be the lead) Which will drive more sales across the board.

Bring back the American Dream to own a home with the benefit of the tax deductions of course.

Agree, repeal the tax cap is prefer, but this is the new normal, until then. The price pop after the repeal = to the tax cap tax. Either way, it going to get more expensive. I don’t like it, as i’ve seen this happen before.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 24, 2019, 07:07:40 AM
But even with SALT, the price drop in Irvine for this current cycle is within the same percentages as previous years. Volume may be different, but the bottom line is how much anyone saved this year is comparable to previous years (or am I reading the data wrong?).

Now maybe we are headed for another dip this fall/winter that might be lower than the one in Feb 19, but that's still following the seasonal pattern I was talking about.

Maybe the November results gave people more hope that housing would stabilize? Also, different from the last significant slowdown is there are more new home developments than in 08-09. If anyone remembers, that's when Orchard Hills did not open and I believe the only new homes being sold were Woodbury, Portola Springs (both closing out their hoods) and Columbus Grove/Square. Does the listing volume also track new homes available that are not on the MLS?

While there may be examples of significant savings, I think those are the outliers and not the norm... at least that's what the data says, personal experience may vary. :)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: eyephone on May 24, 2019, 07:24:55 AM
But even with SALT, the price drop in Irvine for this current cycle is within the same percentages as previous years. Volume may be different, but the bottom line is how much anyone saved this year is comparable to previous years (or am I reading the data wrong?).

Now maybe we are headed for another dip this fall/winter that might be lower than the one in Feb 19, but that's still following the seasonal pattern I was talking about.

Maybe the November results gave people more hope that housing would stabilize? Also, different from the last significant slowdown is there are more new home developments than in 08-09. If anyone remembers, that's when Orchard Hills did not open and I believe the only new homes being sold were Woodbury, Portola Springs (both closing out their hoods) and Columbus Grove/Square. Does the listing volume also track new homes available that are not on the MLS?

While there may be examples of significant savings, I think those are the outliers and not the norm... at least that's what the data says, personal experience may vary. :)

Wasn’t last summer slow?
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 24, 2019, 08:46:21 AM
But even with SALT, the price drop in Irvine for this current cycle is within the same percentages as previous years. Volume may be different, but the bottom line is how much anyone saved this year is comparable to previous years (or am I reading the data wrong?).

Now maybe we are headed for another dip this fall/winter that might be lower than the one in Feb 19, but that's still following the seasonal pattern I was talking about.

Maybe the November results gave people more hope that housing would stabilize? Also, different from the last significant slowdown is there are more new home developments than in 08-09. If anyone remembers, that's when Orchard Hills did not open and I believe the only new homes being sold were Woodbury, Portola Springs (both closing out their hoods) and Columbus Grove/Square. Does the listing volume also track new homes available that are not on the MLS?

While there may be examples of significant savings, I think those are the outliers and not the norm... at least that's what the data says, personal experience may vary. :)

Wasn’t last summer slow?

Maybe volume-wise but prices still peaked in July 2018. Remember, that's when Delano was going bonkers (is it still selling that high?).
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 24, 2019, 08:54:37 AM
The best time in the last 2 years to "wait" would have been Mar/Apr 2017 when median price was $884k and then buying in Mar/Apr 2018 a year later when the median was $820k... a 7.2% savings.

Savings peak to trough for this year was 4.8%.
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 24, 2019, 10:53:48 AM
Looking in the rear view mirrors is always clearer.  :)
Title: Re: Examples of significant savings?
Post by: OCtoSV on May 29, 2019, 11:58:51 AM
The best time in the last 2 years to "wait" would have been Mar/Apr 2017 when median price was $884k and then buying in Mar/Apr 2018 a year later when the median was $820k... a 7.2% savings.

Savings peak to trough for this year was 4.8%.

The first part tracked closely with our experience in the Bay area - early 2017 saw a lull, and we grabbed an insane value in March 2017. A year later however prices had risen 20-30%+