Talk Irvine

General => Real Estate => Irvine Real Estate => Topic started by: OCLuvr on November 15, 2018, 08:47:56 PM

Title: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on November 15, 2018, 08:47:56 PM
What do you guys think—when would be next housing bottom?
My 2 cents:  2021
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 15, 2018, 09:25:32 PM
Expect to receive a rebuke from IHO. He’s going to ask you how much % it will fall. And also prepare to back up your idea with graphs or articles. You will have to summerize the article though instead of giving just 2 cents.

All kiddings aside, I think either 2020 or 2024 if the housing doesn’t recover from 2020.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on November 15, 2018, 09:29:19 PM
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 15, 2018, 09:43:42 PM
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings. :P
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 16, 2018, 09:50:00 AM
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Again, IHO will demend to summerize the article instead of a link copy and paste.

I can’t read the article unless I subscribe. Can you summerize please?

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 16, 2018, 10:21:20 AM
I think we all need an ELI5 version of some of these links people post.

And just to clear, I don't need an actual percentage of drop... the reason I asked was to prove a point. If people are going to advise others on what to do, they need to temper it with expectations.

If we are looking at a 20% drop, obviously, it might be better to wait... but if it's only 5-10%, then you need to assess your situation and affordability to see if it's worth waiting or if you do buy now, you don't mind that size of a drop.

I think a few other members here post a link, a copy/paste from that link that's pertinent and then their own opinion of it. To me, that's the most helpful type of post. If the copy/paste and opinion are compelling enough, I'll visit... if not... I saved 5 minutes of my life.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 16, 2018, 10:21:51 AM
Are we talking in Irvine or across US?

I think Irvine was just stay flat for the next 5 to 7 years.  I do think some of the hotter pockets will have a mini crash...price drop of 10 to 20% minimum in the next 3 to 5 years.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 16, 2018, 10:23:40 AM
Where have you been IC?

Good to see you back in the threads.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 16, 2018, 10:33:27 AM
Yard vs. no yard battle round 2? jk  >:D
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 16, 2018, 10:46:12 AM
Where have you been IC?

Good to see you back in the threads.

Thanks

Working and life.

How are you?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 16, 2018, 11:05:55 AM
Where have you been IC?

Good to see you back in the threads.

Thanks

Working and life.

How are you?

Same same. But my life includes e-debates on TI... :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on November 16, 2018, 02:57:46 PM
Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group has agreed to sell a glitzy development site in Beverly Hills, Calif., the latest sign that Chinese companies are bailing out of U.S. real estate after years of loading up on these properties.

A venture between London-based real-estate firm Cain International and Alagem Capital Group has agreed to purchase the eight-acre site, Cain’s chief executive officer, Jonathan Goldstein, said. The buyers have agreed to pay more than $420 million, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on November 16, 2018, 03:21:20 PM
We had a RE Consulting Group come by the office and give some info from their latest report

2018 expected appreciation 3.6%
2019 expected appreciation 1.5%
2020 expected appreciation -.01%
2021 expected appreciation -3.5%

Wish I had permission to post the entire 50+ page report as there's a great deal to chew on here, but it's a "subscriber only" newsletter.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on November 16, 2018, 03:24:42 PM
Is this Irvine specific or overall US? So, when is the bottom?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: paperboyNC on November 16, 2018, 03:31:37 PM
We had a RE Consulting Group come by the office and give some info from their latest report

2018 expected appreciation 3.6%
2019 expected appreciation 1.5%
2020 expected appreciation -.01%
2021 expected appreciation -3.5%

Wish I had permission to post the entire 50+ page report as there's a great deal to chew on here, but it's a "subscriber only" newsletter.

Let me guess, in Nov 2019 they'll release a new report that says:
2019 expected appreciation 3.6%
2020 expected appreciation 1.5%
2021 expected appreciation -.01%
2022 expected appreciation -3.5%

Eventually they'll get it right and they'll pull out the one report that was right and call themselves Nostradamus.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on November 16, 2018, 05:17:53 PM
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on November 16, 2018, 06:39:54 PM
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

Good to know. Thanks.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on November 16, 2018, 07:02:32 PM
If OC is just 3%, Irvine would be 0.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on November 16, 2018, 07:44:54 PM
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

I am curious as to, if they have any forecast for where rates would be in 2021 to coincide with the price drop? Any of those data presented?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kings on November 17, 2018, 07:04:05 AM
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

how did OC compare nationally?  what were the contributing factors, in their opinion, to the decline?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvine buyer on November 17, 2018, 09:56:40 AM
We had a RE Consulting Group come by the office and give some info from their latest report

2018 expected appreciation 3.6%
2019 expected appreciation 1.5%
2020 expected appreciation -.01%
2021 expected appreciation -3.5%

Wish I had permission to post the entire 50+ page report as there's a great deal to chew on here, but it's a "subscriber only" newsletter.


Back in 2015, I heard a panel of noted economists predict that the next recession would start sometime during the second half of 2017 to the first half of 2018.  Still waiting...


With all due respect, I don't think anyone is capable of accurately predicting what will happen beyond the next 6-12 months.  If a forecast happens to be correct, I think it's more coincidence than anything else.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: lnc on November 17, 2018, 10:23:03 AM
If OC is just 3%, Irvine would be 0.

Agree, and that's why I'm agreeing with IHO that it is not worth the wait to buy in Irvine for a slim possibility of some discount.

If one want to wait and find some good deal in the surrounding cities during the slowdown, that's probably a good idea.  But don't expect any significant discount in newer and highly popular neighborhoods in Irvine though.
 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on November 17, 2018, 04:01:37 PM
If OC is just 3%, Irvine would be 0.

Agree, and that's why I'm agreeing with IHO that it is not worth the wait to buy in Irvine for a slim possibility of some discount.

If one want to wait and find some good deal in the surrounding cities during the slowdown, that's probably a good idea.  But don't expect any significant discount in newer and highly popular neighborhoods in Irvine though.

One of the new developments I follow now has a handful of 'quick move in' homes that are selling for about 20-30k less than they would have been if someone had put a deposit down and selected the options the builder put on them this summer.  I don't think there's going to be anything like the last downturn, but I think I have already saved 20k and could possibly save another 30k by waiting a few more months...
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on November 17, 2018, 04:07:03 PM
It would be better if you talk about what is $20k percent of total price?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCAgentGold on November 18, 2018, 06:00:58 AM
It wont "crash" just slow way down. There is not a place in the world that I know of that has this level of stability. THe only thing that can spoil it is the continued flight as it turns more blue. Thats what will tank the entire state.Remember, there is not much land left. Once it is built and if California is not raising a new socialist flag,  long term appreciation is assured.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on November 18, 2018, 06:36:17 AM
It wont "crash" just slow way down. There is not a place in the world that I know of that has this level of stability. THe only thing that can spoil it is the continued flight as it turns more blue. Thats what will tank the entire state.Remember, there is not much land left. Once it is built and if California is not raising a new socialist flag,  long term appreciation is assured.

Huh , Flight ?  Of the raven sitting atop your roof  ?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvine buyer on November 18, 2018, 08:29:59 AM
Unless one's job is portable, I don't see any meaningful flight due to the political shift in representation.  Besides, it will take awhile for any policy changes to get people upset enough to move.  That said, if OC becomes like SF relative to social economic problems then all bets are off.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 18, 2018, 12:44:20 PM
I thought 2018 was going to be flat and it’s basically turning out to be that.  We had gains of 3-7% in the first half of the year and since mid year we have basically given up those gains.  I think next year will be flattish (slightly up to slightly down). I’ll be watching inventory levels closely as well as interest rates. The economy and job market remain strong from what I see so it’ll take one of a few things to bring the real estate market down more than a few %....1) rates going materially over 5% on the 30 year fixed loan. 2) tariffs/trade war getting worse. 3) job losses.  4) material increase in resale inventory levels. 5) Fed getting aggressive on increasing interest rates. 6) significant devaluation on the Yuan and the US dollar continuing in strengthen against all other currencies. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on November 18, 2018, 04:41:18 PM
Thing is , housing was a LEADING indicator this time , not LAGGING as it usually is  — which is quite remarkable in and of itself given the otherwise strong jobs market. Some TI posters like eyephone and others got it right early on , to their credit .

Good thing is unlike the excess capacity I see in many other areas of the economy , housing is not one of those sectors yet — We could bounce around these low levels for a lot while longer without a meaningful correction lower, just like it took the business profit cycle a lot longer to recover from 2009.

In that sense people could be really waiting a long time if they are really trying to “time “ the bottom . 

As to interest rates , fed will likely hike in December . But for those keeping track of bond markets , notice how the market has begun to price in close to zero hikes for next year . I think the fed is about to “blink” .

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: freedomcm on November 19, 2018, 02:37:21 PM
Remember, there is not much land left. Once it is built and if California is not raising a new socialist flag,  long term appreciation is assured.

How many times have we heard this line!  an oldee, but a goodee!  Weren't there TV commercials saying this in the 03-06 era?

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 19, 2018, 02:58:00 PM
long term appreciation is assured.

You mean inflation?   :o
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on November 19, 2018, 03:26:06 PM
long term appreciation is assured.

You mean inflation?   :o

Short term you might have high blood pressure or an ulcer. due to the decreasing price

(Also, you might say to yourself maybe I should of waited). I am still seeing the price drops throughout the US.

That’s like saying. If you buy a house it should go up in 50 years. (Come on!) lol

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 19, 2018, 03:29:06 PM
I would say that you should not buy a house for investment purposes but you can buy it as a hedge against inflation.  You will always need somewhere to live so buying a house now will help you not have to buy or rent one in the future. 

Question is whether you can make more by investing the funds elsewhere.  I am more conservative so home is first priority and then investment.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 19, 2018, 03:40:23 PM
I would say that you should not buy a house for investment purposes but you can buy it as a hedge against inflation.  You will always need somewhere to live so buying a house now will help you not have to buy or rent one in the future. 

Question is whether you can make more by investing the funds elsewhere.  I am more conservative so home is first priority and then investment.

I agree with this, but it just sucks if your home value goes down. When selling, hopefully it doesn’t overlap with the recession time so the inflation/appreciated value will stay.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on November 19, 2018, 03:45:51 PM
I would say that you should not buy a house for investment purposes but you can buy it as a hedge against inflation.  You will always need somewhere to live so buying a house now will help you not have to buy or rent one in the future. 

Question is whether you can make more by investing the funds elsewhere.  I am more conservative so home is first priority and then investment.

I agree with this, but it just sucks if your home value goes down. When selling, hopefully it doesn’t overlap with the recession time so the inflation/appreciated value will stay.

Recipe for recession. Yo
Stock market down, housing down...
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 19, 2018, 03:52:04 PM
I would say that you should not buy a house for investment purposes but you can buy it as a hedge against inflation.  You will always need somewhere to live so buying a house now will help you not have to buy or rent one in the future. 

Question is whether you can make more by investing the funds elsewhere.  I am more conservative so home is first priority and then investment.

I agree with this, but it just sucks if your home value goes down. When selling, hopefully it doesn’t overlap with the recession time so the inflation/appreciated value will stay.

Recipe for recession. Yo
Stock market down, housing down...

Yeah...no real good places to park investments if you are going through economic downturn (unless you are a shortseller).   But in a bad economy, more value is placed on things that can be used rather than something abstract.   
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on November 19, 2018, 06:46:37 PM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?

Only thing holding up is high yield loan funds - but for  how long , let’s see

The problem is with investment horizons

When you gamble or say bet on a race horse , there is a set start and end point . You may use an analytical framework to use for betting but ultimately it is a discrete event that ends and you lose/win whatever you are supposed to and walk away .


When you invest , you are in a continuous time frame . There is no end point . When your investment goes down, you think maybe I will hold it just a little bit longer and your point of exit keeps shifting and shifting and shifting, leading to constant anguish .  Truly long investment horizons are a luxury only the very few have.

This is why when going into an investment or even when you are about to buy a House — key to practice and rehearse your reaction function before hand — will I still be happy if this house were to be marked down by 5-10 percent within an year or two even though I don’t really need to sell it ? If the answer is no , then don’t buy .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on November 19, 2018, 06:52:55 PM
Add crypto to the list :o

This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?

Only thing holding up is high yield loan funds - but for  how long , let’s see

The problem is with investment horizons

When you gamble or say bet on a race horse , there is a set start and end point . You may use an analytical framework to use for betting but ultimately it is a discrete event that ends and you lose/win whatever you are supposed to and walk away .


When you invest , you are in a continuous time frame . There is no end point . When your investment goes down, you think maybe I will hold it just a little bit longer and your point of exit keeps shifting and shifting and shifting, leading to constant anguish .  Truly long investment horizons are a luxury only the very few have.

This is why when going into an investment or even when you are about to buy a House — key to practice and rehearse your reaction function before hand — will I still be happy if this house were to be marked down by 5-10 percent within an year or two even though I don’t really need to sell it ? If the answer is no , then don’t buy .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on November 19, 2018, 07:11:18 PM
Add crypto to the list :o

This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide


Ha , true that . But notice I said “investors “ . Crypto is the biggest mainstream scam out there right now !
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 20, 2018, 09:58:29 AM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 20, 2018, 10:13:07 AM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 20, 2018, 10:29:55 AM
That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 20, 2018, 10:31:11 AM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 20, 2018, 10:34:37 AM
That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

What are you talking about?  Irvine is an excellent housing market in the longterm for both appreciation and holding value.  It is on a ten-year run with value probably doubling during that period of time.  There are markets that just started their run because people have been pushed into those areas but those areas will have very short runs and most likely to suffer depreciation.

Housing is not a good investment period.  The only good resident real estate investment is multi-unit rental property but you need a lot of capital and know-how to get to a profitable level.  Why would anyone want to invest in a single residential home unless you have a ton of time on your hands and have contractor/construction experience and/or connections.  Just go invest in a REIT.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on November 20, 2018, 10:51:49 AM
If you an investor , yes housing is negative net P&L on the year even in Irvine — in broad beta terms given the averages being talked about here

we all know there are exceptions .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 20, 2018, 10:53:03 AM
What are you talking about?  Irvine is an excellent housing market in the longterm for both appreciation and holding value.

Talk about shifting the goal posts.  The topic was "this year" and there being "literally no where to hide".

Housing is not a good investment period.  The only good resident real estate investment is multi-unit rental property but you need a lot of capital and know-how to get to a profitable level.

Any asset that is priced right can be a good investment.  Multi-unit is better from the perspective of cashflow, but SFR's can be better for appreciation.  You get lots of overexcited buyers willing to overpay for SFR's, whereas multi-units tend to have rational investor types bidding on them.

Why would anyone want to invest in a single residential home unless you have a ton of time on your hands and have contractor/construction experience and/or connections.  Just go invest in a REIT.

Simple.  The opportunity for higher returns.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 20, 2018, 10:59:31 AM
What are you talking about?  Irvine is an excellent housing market in the longterm for both appreciation and holding value.

Talk about shifting the goal posts.  The topic was "this year" and there being "literally no where to hide".

Housing is not a good investment period.  The only good resident real estate investment is multi-unit rental property but you need a lot of capital and know-how to get to a profitable level.

Any asset that is priced right can be a good investment.  Multi-unit is better from the perspective of cashflow, but SFR's can be better for appreciation.  You get lots of overexcited buyers willing to overpay for SFR's, whereas multi-units tend to have rational investor types bidding on them.

Why would anyone want to invest in a single residential home unless you have a ton of time on your hands and have contractor/construction experience and/or connections.  Just go invest in a REIT.

Simple.  The opportunity for higher returns.

Unless you are a flipper or interested in the extreme short term window, housing is not the place to be.

We have had an unprecedented recession followed by unprecedented low interest rates/foreign investments.  Those things happen once in a generation.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 20, 2018, 11:11:31 AM
What are you talking about?  Irvine is an excellent housing market in the longterm for both appreciation and holding value.

Talk about shifting the goal posts.  The topic was "this year" and there being "literally no where to hide".

Housing is not a good investment period.  The only good resident real estate investment is multi-unit rental property but you need a lot of capital and know-how to get to a profitable level.

Any asset that is priced right can be a good investment.  Multi-unit is better from the perspective of cashflow, but SFR's can be better for appreciation.  You get lots of overexcited buyers willing to overpay for SFR's, whereas multi-units tend to have rational investor types bidding on them.

Why would anyone want to invest in a single residential home unless you have a ton of time on your hands and have contractor/construction experience and/or connections.  Just go invest in a REIT.

Simple.  The opportunity for higher returns.

Unless you are a flipper or interested in the extreme short term window, housing is not the place to be.

We have had an unprecedented recession followed by unprecedented low interest rates/foreign investments.  Those things happen once in a generation.

I agree going forward, but we were talking about the past year.  Flipping isn't even a good idea right now unless you can build in extra cushion for potential downside movements in price.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 20, 2018, 12:39:19 PM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?

Still waiting for an answer.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 20, 2018, 03:00:37 PM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?

Still waiting for an answer.

I know this was not directed towards me but I think there is no great place to invest in or around OC right now.  Cash flow is horrible everywhere in the OC, but especially in Irvine.  Irvine would be a good investment if you felt appreciation will be strong, but at this point, it doesnt seem like appreciation anywhere will be good.  Considering negative cash flow and opportunity costs and low to negative appreciation, Id rather just put that cash into a high yield CD or savings account. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 20, 2018, 03:13:51 PM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?

Still waiting for an answer.

I know this was not directed towards me but I think there is no great place to invest in or around OC right now.  Cash flow is horrible everywhere in the OC, but especially in Irvine.  Irvine would be a good investment if you felt appreciation will be strong, but at this point, it doesnt seem like appreciation anywhere will be good.  Considering negative cash flow and opportunity costs and low to negative appreciation, Id rather just put that cash into a high yield CD or savings account.

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 20, 2018, 03:22:20 PM

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

I think that it is very difficult to make money on properties in OC.  There are areas like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, or Anaheim that can offer housings that you can buy at low prices, renovate, and re-sell.

Rentals are tough in Irvine because there are a lot of FCBs who bought houses to park money in.  Their hard costs are much lower than anyone with a mortgage.   

Of the places in OC, Irvine is my favorite because of the ever changing demographics and businesses.  10 years ago, Irvine was the classic OC city with chain restaurants and everything closes at 10 p.m.   Now there is a ton of ethnic businesses and a lot of competition where even Irvine Company has to adapt.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 20, 2018, 04:20:15 PM

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

I think that it is very difficult to make money on properties in OC.  There are areas like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, or Anaheim that can offer housings that you can buy at low prices, renovate, and re-sell.

Rentals are tough in Irvine because there are a lot of FCBs who bought houses to park money in.  Their hard costs are much lower than anyone with a mortgage.   

Of the places in OC, Irvine is my favorite because of the ever changing demographics and businesses.  10 years ago, Irvine was the classic OC city with chain restaurants and everything closes at 10 p.m.   Now there is a ton of ethnic businesses and a lot of competition where even Irvine Company has to adapt.

I think you can't completely avoid thinking about the investment side even if you are buying a home you yourself will live. It's not smart to buy in areas where it wouldn't appreciate as much when you are spending the same money. Also the reason why it's appreciating is not just because there are FCBs or investors buying at whatever cost. It's because the area is actually a good place to live - good schools, safe neighbors, clean and well organized environment, etc. Irvine does fit into those categories pretty well.

Other OC areas are nice too, but I think the major difference is the access to the freeways. Irvine's access to freeways are incomparable to places like Lake Forest, Aliso Viejo or Mission Viejo. This is where PS is kind of lacking in Irvine-advantage, hence a little cheaper, but at least they've got 133 access. Costa Mesa and Santa Ana have the same advantage of freeways also, but I'm seeing that they are not much cheaper now days that you would just buy in Irvine.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 21, 2018, 06:42:04 AM

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

I think that it is very difficult to make money on properties in OC.  There are areas like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, or Anaheim that can offer housings that you can buy at low prices, renovate, and re-sell.

Rentals are tough in Irvine because there are a lot of FCBs who bought houses to park money in.  Their hard costs are much lower than anyone with a mortgage.   

Of the places in OC, Irvine is my favorite because of the ever changing demographics and businesses.  10 years ago, Irvine was the classic OC city with chain restaurants and everything closes at 10 p.m.   Now there is a ton of ethnic businesses and a lot of competition where even Irvine Company has to adapt.

I think you can't completely avoid thinking about the investment side even if you are buying a home you yourself will live. It's not smart to buy in areas where it wouldn't appreciate as much when you are spending the same money. Also the reason why it's appreciating is not just because there are FCBs or investors buying at whatever cost. It's because the area is actually a good place to live - good schools, safe neighbors, clean and well organized environment, etc. Irvine does fit into those categories pretty well.

Other OC areas are nice too, but I think the major difference is the access to the freeways. Irvine's access to freeways are incomparable to places like Lake Forest, Aliso Viejo or Mission Viejo. This is where PS is kind of lacking in Irvine-advantage, hence a little cheaper, but at least they've got 133 access. Costa Mesa and Santa Ana have the same advantage of freeways also, but I'm seeing that they are not much cheaper now days that you would just buy in Irvine.



This is what I said 10 years ago. Irvine just has so much more going for it than other OC cities so it makes it resilient.

The central location is huge... first rule of real estate. Sure, neighboring cities also share that trait but not to the extent of the magic 405/5/133/55 that Irvine is in the center of. Close to the beach, close to the snow and close to Disneyland for all those home schooling anti-vaxers (okay... that was a bit polarizing but there is some truth to that). You can go to LA one way or San Diego the other... and the weather is more temperate than most OC cities.

Then you add to that:

- Safety
- Schools
- Shopping
- Restaurants
- Parks
- High ranked university
- Great community college
- Job centers
- Mix of resale and new homes
- Variety of rental homes from apartment lofts to Shady mansions
- Master planned
- And last but not least, multiple pick-up basketball games locations

For those certain people who are emotionally detached from Irvine, they may minimize these benefits, but history favors price stability in Irvine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: paydawg on November 21, 2018, 09:19:16 AM

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

I think that it is very difficult to make money on properties in OC.  There are areas like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, or Anaheim that can offer housings that you can buy at low prices, renovate, and re-sell.

Rentals are tough in Irvine because there are a lot of FCBs who bought houses to park money in.  Their hard costs are much lower than anyone with a mortgage.   

Of the places in OC, Irvine is my favorite because of the ever changing demographics and businesses.  10 years ago, Irvine was the classic OC city with chain restaurants and everything closes at 10 p.m.   Now there is a ton of ethnic businesses and a lot of competition where even Irvine Company has to adapt.

I think you can't completely avoid thinking about the investment side even if you are buying a home you yourself will live. It's not smart to buy in areas where it wouldn't appreciate as much when you are spending the same money. Also the reason why it's appreciating is not just because there are FCBs or investors buying at whatever cost. It's because the area is actually a good place to live - good schools, safe neighbors, clean and well organized environment, etc. Irvine does fit into those categories pretty well.

Other OC areas are nice too, but I think the major difference is the access to the freeways. Irvine's access to freeways are incomparable to places like Lake Forest, Aliso Viejo or Mission Viejo. This is where PS is kind of lacking in Irvine-advantage, hence a little cheaper, but at least they've got 133 access. Costa Mesa and Santa Ana have the same advantage of freeways also, but I'm seeing that they are not much cheaper now days that you would just buy in Irvine.



This is what I said 10 years ago. Irvine just has so much more going for it than other OC cities so it makes it resilient.

The central location is huge... first rule of real estate. Sure, neighboring cities also share that trait but not to the extent of the magic 405/5/133/55 that Irvine is in the center of. Close to the beach, close to the snow and close to Disneyland for all those home schooling anti-vaxers (okay... that was a bit polarizing but there is some truth to that). You can go to LA one way or San Diego the other... and the weather is more temperate than most OC cities.

Then you add to that:

- Safety
- Schools
- Shopping
- Restaurants
- Parks
- High ranked university
- Great community college
- Job centers
- Mix of resale and new homes
- Variety of rental homes from apartment lofts to Shady mansions
- Master planned
- And last but not least, multiple pick-up basketball games locations

For those certain people who are emotionally detached from Irvine, they may minimize these benefits, but history favors price stability in Irvine.

You forgot easy access/proximity to hospitals and medical offices.  Also, the 'network effect'.  Higher earning/higher-educated families want to be in an area with like-minded families.  Many other parts of the OC have that as well, but with some riff-raff built in.  There's comfort in knowing you're spending more money to live in Irvine and that others have to do the same. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on November 21, 2018, 11:36:05 AM
(http://gph.is/28W8VQg)(https://media.giphy.com/media/1haxuHqowL160/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 21, 2018, 12:02:29 PM
(https://img.memecdn.com/u-jelly_o_1329597.webp)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on November 21, 2018, 12:21:34 PM
Higher earning/higher-educated families want to be in an area with like-minded families.

This is probably we have such extreme white flight out of Irvine since 1980.

White population % - 87.8% (1980)   77.9%(1990)   61.1% (2000)   50.5%(2010)

My mom recently showed me an article saying at the current pace, Irvine will be 65% Asian in 2030. That's higher than San Gabriel/ Monterey Park/ Temple City/Arcadia. Not saying it's good or bad. But Irvine will look completely different in 10 years.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on November 21, 2018, 12:27:08 PM
Totally
(https://keyassets-p2.timeincuk.net/wp/prod/wp-content/uploads/sites/53/2017/07/Fruit-jelly.jpg)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 21, 2018, 12:41:21 PM
zubs don’t live in Irvine?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 21, 2018, 01:41:30 PM
Higher earning/higher-educated families want to be in an area with like-minded families.

This is probably we have such extreme white flight out of Irvine since 1980.

White population % - 87.8% (1980)   77.9%(1990)   61.1% (2000)   50.5%(2010)

My mom recently showed me an article saying at the current pace, Irvine will be 65% Asian in 2030. That's higher than San Gabriel/ Monterey Park/ Temple City/Arcadia. Not saying it's good or bad. But Irvine will look completely different in 10 years.

I don't think it is white plight as it is Asian preference.  BA and Irvine have been the focus of recent Asian immigrants, those with high paying jobs or were already reach.  Pricing have driven out most of the buyers.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 21, 2018, 03:06:22 PM
Unfortunately you can't have your cake and eat it too with residential investing in Orange County...either you accept a lower cap rate with more appreciation upside or you a higher cap rate with less appreciation.  Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.  We are basically flat on prices in Irvine this year with the past 3-4 months having been a give back of the gains in the first half of the year. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on November 21, 2018, 06:20:53 PM
The answer to the question of "when would be the next housing bottom can be answer from the chart below. The real estate market continues to shift in cycles from buyer, neutral, to seller market. Right now we are in a neutral market at 7.1 month nationally. If you are trying the time the bottom in Irvine, wait until you see the numbers reach 9-11 month supply.

Currently the median home price for Irvine SFRs sits at $1,200,000 from 1150 Irvine SFRs sold in the last 12 months.

Current Irvine SFR inventory is 2.8 months
Current Irvine Condo Inventory is 2.64 months
Current Irvine Townhouses Inventory is 2.20 months.

I project that Irvine's inventory will be half that of the national average. Once the national inventory levels reach 12 months, I will forecast that Irvine's inventory will reach 6 months Irvine which will be a good entry points for those in the sidelines. 

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/w41dbzq6f3pc8jd/chart.jpg?raw=1)

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/roxsi117qtl0sc3/IRVINE_INVENTORY.jpg?raw=1)
The inventory numbers look a bit higher but the pattern of the chart is correct.

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/kf7rn5jxzkpp6i6/irvine.jpg?raw=1)
The inventory numbers look correct on this chart.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on November 21, 2018, 07:29:21 PM
Probably, another year then... which I don’t think would be bottom.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on November 21, 2018, 07:33:35 PM
OCLuvr, watch the 800 Irvine inventory support level. There is strong support there which will be broken. Yes... usually these cycles can take 2-3 years. I also predict that that 10 year and 30 year treasury yield will be lower in the years ahead ( short terms forecast) before heading up higher long term. Deflationary pressures in the short term and inflationary longer term which is good for real assets including real estate. Irvine Renter taught me a valuable lesson back in 2008, that you can always change the mortgage rate by refinancing, but you cannot change your purchase price. Let the charts above be your guide.

Probably, another year then... which I don’t think would be bottom.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 22, 2018, 06:56:01 AM
We are basically flat on prices in Irvine this year with the past 3-4 months having been a give back of the gains in the first half of the year.

If we have given back price gains already from the first half of the year, that is pretty significant in my opinion.  I may be wrong but I thought we had about 5-6% price gains earlier this year.  So 5-6% drop in the past few months is pretty staggering in my opinion.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 22, 2018, 06:58:20 AM
OCLuvr, watch the 800 Irvine inventory support level. There is strong support there which will be broken.

I believe we already broke though 800 inventory in Irvine earlier this month.  Now we are sitting slightly below 800.  I suspect that Irvine will easily surpass 800 again as more homes begin to be listed starting in the new year. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 24, 2018, 10:32:09 AM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?

Still waiting for an answer.

At this point in the cycle, I would look for areas that have a shot at rapid gentrification due to an influx of capital or highly paid employees.  There are multiple cities in both NorCal and SoCal, as well as 2nd-tier cities across the US that are experiencing this type of growth. 

I would stay away from areas that are experiencing a peak in their unaffordability ratio (percent of residents that can't afford the median home) as those areas will experience the hardest hits from rising mortgage rates.  Unfortunately, Irvine (and most of OC) falls into this category.

This mythology that Irvine is "safer" than other places to park your capital is betrayed by the facts - a 30% decline during the last downturn, and a 15-20% decline during the downturn before that. 

It's revisionist history to say that Irvine was safer, and is really a form of cognitive dissonance for those that want to convince themselves that prices can't go down.  If you really want safety, there are other places that will protect your "investment" much better.  Try CDM, NB, LB, etc.  Areas with long time owners and old money will weather the storm best. 

Irvine still has too many aspirational buyers that have stretched DTI's buying into a market that is barely within their reach.  During a downturn, job losses will affect these people and lead to some tough choices about what they can really afford.

So many of the items on IHO's list could also apply to Los Angeles, but nobody would argue that LA is immune to downturns.  Compton also has lots of courts for pickup basketball games.  There's no measurable effect on prices from having this amenity. 

And besides, all of the same amenities existed during Irvine's 30% decline that occurred just 10 short years ago.  The perma-bulls in '07 also believed Irvine was immune (much like many of the current posters on TI), but they lost boatloads of money. 

The reason is they couldn't overcome their internal biases to view things realistically.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on November 24, 2018, 10:50:28 AM
Appears to me that the top inventory chart is accurate. I currently see 692 homes listed for sale in Irvine.

OCLuvr, watch the 800 Irvine inventory support level. There is strong support there which will be broken.

I believe we already broke though 800 inventory in Irvine earlier this month.  Now we are sitting slightly below 800.  I suspect that Irvine will easily surpass 800 again as more homes begin to be listed starting in the new year. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Loco_local on November 24, 2018, 01:36:16 PM
What cities outside of California would you recommend?



At this point in the cycle, I would look for areas that have a shot at rapid gentrification due to an influx of capital or highly paid employees.  There are multiple cities in both NorCal and SoCal, as well as 2nd-tier cities across the US that are experiencing this type of growth. 

I would stay away from areas that are experiencing a peak in their unaffordability ratio (percent of residents that can't afford the median home) as those areas will experience the hardest hits from rising mortgage rates.  Unfortunately, Irvine (and most of OC) falls into this category.


Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 24, 2018, 07:00:18 PM
OCLuvr, watch the 800 Irvine inventory support level. There is strong support there which will be broken.

I believe we already broke though 800 inventory in Irvine earlier this month.  Now we are sitting slightly below 800.  I suspect that Irvine will easily surpass 800 again as more homes begin to be listed starting in the new year. 

We'll most likely be back above 800 homes on the market in Irvine in 1Q 2019.  The low point of inventory will be between Xmas and New Years Day.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 26, 2018, 09:38:57 AM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?

Still waiting for an answer.

At this point in the cycle, I would look for areas that have a shot at rapid gentrification due to an influx of capital or highly paid employees.  There are multiple cities in both NorCal and SoCal, as well as 2nd-tier cities across the US that are experiencing this type of growth. 

I would stay away from areas that are experiencing a peak in their unaffordability ratio (percent of residents that can't afford the median home) as those areas will experience the hardest hits from rising mortgage rates.  Unfortunately, Irvine (and most of OC) falls into this category.

This mythology that Irvine is "safer" than other places to park your capital is betrayed by the facts - a 30% decline during the last downturn, and a 15-20% decline during the downturn before that. 

It's revisionist history to say that Irvine was safer, and is really a form of cognitive dissonance for those that want to convince themselves that prices can't go down.  If you really want safety, there are other places that will protect your "investment" much better.  Try CDM, NB, LB, etc.  Areas with long time owners and old money will weather the storm best. 

Irvine still has too many aspirational buyers that have stretched DTI's buying into a market that is barely within their reach.  During a downturn, job losses will affect these people and lead to some tough choices about what they can really afford.

So many of the items on IHO's list could also apply to Los Angeles, but nobody would argue that LA is immune to downturns.  Compton also has lots of courts for pickup basketball games.  There's no measurable effect on prices from having this amenity. 

And besides, all of the same amenities existed during Irvine's 30% decline that occurred just 10 short years ago.  The perma-bulls in '07 also believed Irvine was immune (much like many of the current posters on TI), but they lost boatloads of money. 

The reason is they couldn't overcome their internal biases to view things realistically.

Wow. You keep calling me out and now who is using revisionist history.

Show me the data when there was a sustained 30% downturn for Irvine. Then show me the same time frame data for cities surrounding Irvine.

Maybe USC or Panda can throw some charts and graphs in here to prove who is biased.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 26, 2018, 10:32:10 AM
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?

Still waiting for an answer.

At this point in the cycle, I would look for areas that have a shot at rapid gentrification due to an influx of capital or highly paid employees.  There are multiple cities in both NorCal and SoCal, as well as 2nd-tier cities across the US that are experiencing this type of growth. 

I would stay away from areas that are experiencing a peak in their unaffordability ratio (percent of residents that can't afford the median home) as those areas will experience the hardest hits from rising mortgage rates.  Unfortunately, Irvine (and most of OC) falls into this category.

This mythology that Irvine is "safer" than other places to park your capital is betrayed by the facts - a 30% decline during the last downturn, and a 15-20% decline during the downturn before that. 

It's revisionist history to say that Irvine was safer, and is really a form of cognitive dissonance for those that want to convince themselves that prices can't go down.  If you really want safety, there are other places that will protect your "investment" much better.  Try CDM, NB, LB, etc.  Areas with long time owners and old money will weather the storm best. 

Irvine still has too many aspirational buyers that have stretched DTI's buying into a market that is barely within their reach.  During a downturn, job losses will affect these people and lead to some tough choices about what they can really afford.

So many of the items on IHO's list could also apply to Los Angeles, but nobody would argue that LA is immune to downturns.  Compton also has lots of courts for pickup basketball games.  There's no measurable effect on prices from having this amenity. 

And besides, all of the same amenities existed during Irvine's 30% decline that occurred just 10 short years ago.  The perma-bulls in '07 also believed Irvine was immune (much like many of the current posters on TI), but they lost boatloads of money. 

The reason is they couldn't overcome their internal biases to view things realistically.

That's just cherry picking of stats.  Irvine may have been down 30% after 2007 but that's is excellent compared to the 50-60% drop in other places like Ladera.  Newport and Laguna also fell by 30-40%. 

No housing market is immuned to nearly collapse of global economy...we are talking about relative safety...not absolute safety.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on November 26, 2018, 10:59:23 AM
Truth:

No housing market is immune to nearly collapse of global economy...we are talking about relative safety...not absolute safety.

Good schools, diverse employment base, attractive weather are the plusses. That said, should Sacramento go tax berserk, or if IUSD ratings begin to soften, a recovery off the bottom might be slower than past recoveries.

My .02c
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 26, 2018, 11:20:55 AM
Since hyperbole is in full effect...

Not only did I say Irvine was totally immune to any price drops... but I actually said prices went up during the crash*.

*Not
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 26, 2018, 11:37:22 AM
At this point in the cycle, I would look for areas that have a shot at rapid gentrification due to an influx of capital or highly paid employees.  There are multiple cities in both NorCal and SoCal, as well as 2nd-tier cities across the US that are experiencing this type of growth. 

I would stay away from areas that are experiencing a peak in their unaffordability ratio (percent of residents that can't afford the median home) as those areas will experience the hardest hits from rising mortgage rates.  Unfortunately, Irvine (and most of OC) falls into this category.

This mythology that Irvine is "safer" than other places to park your capital is betrayed by the facts - a 30% decline during the last downturn, and a 15-20% decline during the downturn before that. 

It's revisionist history to say that Irvine was safer, and is really a form of cognitive dissonance for those that want to convince themselves that prices can't go down.  If you really want safety, there are other places that will protect your "investment" much better.  Try CDM, NB, LB, etc.  Areas with long time owners and old money will weather the storm best. 

Irvine still has too many aspirational buyers that have stretched DTI's buying into a market that is barely within their reach.  During a downturn, job losses will affect these people and lead to some tough choices about what they can really afford.

So many of the items on IHO's list could also apply to Los Angeles, but nobody would argue that LA is immune to downturns.  Compton also has lots of courts for pickup basketball games.  There's no measurable effect on prices from having this amenity. 

And besides, all of the same amenities existed during Irvine's 30% decline that occurred just 10 short years ago.  The perma-bulls in '07 also believed Irvine was immune (much like many of the current posters on TI), but they lost boatloads of money. 

The reason is they couldn't overcome their internal biases to view things realistically.

I agree that Newport or Laguna Beach could be "better" investment or resident areas to put your money into. Who wouldn't want to live near the coast? The issue is those areas are A LOT more expensive than Irvine. Yes, Irvine could seem overpriced, but it still is sort of affordable compare to places you listed. You can still find pretty good deals under $1m in Irvine whereas that price range would only give you 600sq with 1 bathroom and no parking spot in Laguna Beach. If you have money, NB and LB are the places to be. But for ordinary folks with regular W2 without stealing in-laws' money, Irvine comes reasonable in OC.

Maybe you have the affordability to buy in those areas, but for our family, Irvine is still the playground in our budget that could give best bang for the buck. Tustin or Baker Ranch could be reasonable also. I'm not talking about the cycle or the timing the market. I'm just asking to see if there are better places to buy in OC that are reasonably priced for reasonable homes.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on November 26, 2018, 11:57:47 AM
SoCal is a great place to live for your primary residence, but you are not going to see the 3X appreciation growth you are saw from 1994 - 2006. You want to look at where the population is growing 10+%. New York, LA, and Chicago are developed cities, whereas Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas are emerging cities with a lot upside growth.

For example the population size of LA metro is more than 2 twice the size of metro Atlanta 13.3M vs 5.8M but the population growth in numbers in Atlanta exceeded that of Los Angeles. You have to study and observe where the population is moving.

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/kxlg7uydzf8ddn5/stats.jpg?raw=1)

What cities outside of California would you recommend?



At this point in the cycle, I would look for areas that have a shot at rapid gentrification due to an influx of capital or highly paid employees.  There are multiple cities in both NorCal and SoCal, as well as 2nd-tier cities across the US that are experiencing this type of growth. 

I would stay away from areas that are experiencing a peak in their unaffordability ratio (percent of residents that can't afford the median home) as those areas will experience the hardest hits from rising mortgage rates.  Unfortunately, Irvine (and most of OC) falls into this category.


Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: momopi on November 26, 2018, 01:15:48 PM
If you shop along inland regions along I-15 (Riverside/SB County), it's possible to invest during market lows and make 3x appreciation during market highs.  For coastal areas like LA you might make 2x.

In parts of Sacramento, East of 99, it's possible to make 4x appreciation if you invest in older 2 bed 1 bath SFR's.  The ones that are selling for $200-$250K now was priced at $50K-$65K during market lows.  However the area is not that great.  Back when I went looking around 2008-2009 those SFR's rented for $850/month and the neighborhood had significant number of boarded up businesses and homeless.  Rancho Cordova further North was much nicer.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on November 26, 2018, 01:46:04 PM
Bear in mind that so few of the "smart guys in the room" saw the 2007-2008 housing turn and an equally small number of folks saw the market bottom in 2010. It's nice to speculate as we are doing now, but by the time someone can firmly plant the flag into the turn or the bottom, opportunity has more than likely passed.


My .02c

SGIP

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 26, 2018, 02:47:41 PM
SoCal is a great place to live for your primary residence, but you are not going to see the 3X appreciation growth you are saw from 1994 - 2006. You want to look at where the population is growing 10+%. New York, LA, and Chicago are developed cities, whereas Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas are emerging cities with a lot upside growth.

For example the population size of LA metro is more than 2 twice the size of metro Atlanta 13.3M vs 5.8M but the population growth in numbers in Atlanta exceeded that of Los Angeles. You have to study and observe where the population is moving.


That's a false comparison.  LA Metro is a mature population with high and ever increasing housing prices.  Atlanta is an up and coming town with relatively low prices as compared to the mature population centers (NYC, Boston, etc.)  or collapse of local economies (i.e. Detroit or Cleveland).   Comparing growth rates of places like NYC and LA with Las Vegas/Arizona and Atlanta would be like comparing the GDP growth of the US with that of BRIC nations.

LA and California are expensive to buy and live in...people are being driven to Las Vegas and Arizona not because they don't like California (mostly) but because they cannot afford to live there.  For a state like California with 8 to 9% growth in major population areas (i.e. Bay Area and Riverside) is actually quite impressive. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: momopi on November 26, 2018, 03:51:09 PM
Bear in mind that so few of the "smart guys in the room" saw the 2007-2008 housing turn and an equally small number of folks saw the market bottom in 2010. It's nice to speculate as we are doing now, but by the time someone can firmly plant the flag into the turn or the bottom, opportunity has more than likely passed.
My .02c
SGIP

You could still find some great deals in 2012.  In South Riverside County you could buy older SFR's at 1/3 of today's price in 2012.  For LA County, 1/2 of today's price in 2012.

From 2010 to early 2012 the prices in areas where I invested didn't go up that much.  But by 2013 the jump was significant.  I saw a $240K SFR in 2012 jump to $360K in 2013 in Norwalk, and it wasn't even in the block that's in ABC school district.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 26, 2018, 04:53:34 PM
SoCal is a great place to live for your primary residence, but you are not going to see the 3X appreciation growth you are saw from 1994 - 2006. You want to look at where the population is growing 10+%. New York, LA, and Chicago are developed cities, whereas Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas are emerging cities with a lot upside growth.

For example the population size of LA metro is more than 2 twice the size of metro Atlanta 13.3M vs 5.8M but the population growth in numbers in Atlanta exceeded that of Los Angeles. You have to study and observe where the population is moving.


That's a false comparison.  LA Metro is a mature population with high and ever increasing housing prices.  Atlanta is an up and coming town with relatively low prices as compared to the mature population centers (NYC, Boston, etc.)  or collapse of local economies (i.e. Detroit or Cleveland).   Comparing growth rates of places like NYC and LA with Las Vegas/Arizona and Atlanta would be like comparing the GDP growth of the US with that of BRIC nations.

LA and California are expensive to buy and live in...people are being driven to Las Vegas and Arizona not because they don't like California (mostly) but because they cannot afford to live there.  For a state like California with 8 to 9% growth in major population areas (i.e. Bay Area and Riverside) is actually quite impressive.

I think there will always be the price gap. Where Irvine will never be as expensive as Santa Monica or even close by Newport Beach, the same thing will be as Atlanta or Texas might never be as expensive as OC.  Just my thought. I could be wrong.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 26, 2018, 05:08:03 PM

Show me the data when there was a sustained 30% downturn for Irvine.

I realize this wasnt directed towards me but....  28% drop, close enough.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on November 26, 2018, 05:56:30 PM
Mety,
You are correct. Comparing Atlanta and Los Angeles is sort of like comparing India vs USA. Los Angeles is a first tier city whereas Atlanta is an emerging city. In the next 10-20 years, I would place my bets on India Sensex vs S&P500.

If I told that I was investing in an up and coming affluent city in Franklin TN, The Irvine of Nashville, I would get laughed at 6-7 years ago.  There is a major population shift to the south currently taking place.

SoCal is a great place to live for your primary residence, but you are not going to see the 3X appreciation growth you are saw from 1994 - 2006. You want to look at where the population is growing 10+%. New York, LA, and Chicago are developed cities, whereas Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas are emerging cities with a lot upside growth.

For example the population size of LA metro is more than 2 twice the size of metro Atlanta 13.3M vs 5.8M but the population growth in numbers in Atlanta exceeded that of Los Angeles. You have to study and observe where the population is moving.


That's a false comparison.  LA Metro is a mature population with high and ever increasing housing prices.  Atlanta is an up and coming town with relatively low prices as compared to the mature population centers (NYC, Boston, etc.)  or collapse of local economies (i.e. Detroit or Cleveland).   Comparing growth rates of places like NYC and LA with Las Vegas/Arizona and Atlanta would be like comparing the GDP growth of the US with that of BRIC nations.

LA and California are expensive to buy and live in...people are being driven to Las Vegas and Arizona not because they don't like California (mostly) but because they cannot afford to live there.  For a state like California with 8 to 9% growth in major population areas (i.e. Bay Area and Riverside) is actually quite impressive.

I think there will always be the price gap. Where Irvine will never be as expensive as Santa Monica or even close by Newport Beach, the same thing will be as Atlanta or Texas might never be as expensive as OC.  Just my thought. I could be wrong.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on November 26, 2018, 06:00:57 PM
Mety,
You are correct. Comparing Atlanta and Los Angeles is sort of like comparing India vs USA. Los Angeles is a first tier city whereas Atlanta is an emerging city. In the next 10-20 years, I would place my bet going long on India Sensex vs S&P500.

If I told you guys that I was investing in an up and coming affluent city in Franklin TN, The Irvine of Nashville, I would get laughed at 6-7 years ago. There is a major population shift to the south currently taking place.

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/wnumr20xyqtue1b/nash.jpg?raw=1)

SoCal is a great place to live for your primary residence, but you are not going to see the 3X appreciation growth you are saw from 1994 - 2006. You want to look at where the population is growing 10+%. New York, LA, and Chicago are developed cities, whereas Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas are emerging cities with a lot upside growth.

For example the population size of LA metro is more than 2 twice the size of metro Atlanta 13.3M vs 5.8M but the population growth in numbers in Atlanta exceeded that of Los Angeles. You have to study and observe where the population is moving.


That's a false comparison.  LA Metro is a mature population with high and ever increasing housing prices.  Atlanta is an up and coming town with relatively low prices as compared to the mature population centers (NYC, Boston, etc.)  or collapse of local economies (i.e. Detroit or Cleveland).   Comparing growth rates of places like NYC and LA with Las Vegas/Arizona and Atlanta would be like comparing the GDP growth of the US with that of BRIC nations.

LA and California are expensive to buy and live in...people are being driven to Las Vegas and Arizona not because they don't like California (mostly) but because they cannot afford to live there.  For a state like California with 8 to 9% growth in major population areas (i.e. Bay Area and Riverside) is actually quite impressive.

I think there will always be the price gap. Where Irvine will never be as expensive as Santa Monica or even close by Newport Beach, the same thing will be as Atlanta or Texas might never be as expensive as OC.  Just my thought. I could be wrong.
[/quote]
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 26, 2018, 06:22:22 PM

Show me the data when there was a sustained 30% downturn for Irvine.

I realize this wasnt directed towards me but....  28% drop, close enough.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

To break it down even further...detached properties/single family homes went down 15-25% while attached condos went down 30-40% in Irvine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 26, 2018, 06:25:32 PM
Mety,
You are correct. Comparing Atlanta and Los Angeles is sort of like comparing India vs USA. Los Angeles is a first tier city whereas Atlanta is an emerging city. In the next 10-20 years, I would place my bets on India Sensex vs S&P500.

If I told that I was investing in an up and coming affluent city in Franklin TN, The Irvine of Nashville, I would get laughed at 6-7 years ago.  There is a major population shift to the south currently taking place.

Investments are different than whether you live.  I would not invest in residential real estate...especially one not near me.  Too much hassle/headache. 

You may place your bet in India Stock market but you wouldn't want to park your nest egg there.  You will want to keep most of it in US stock market and bonds.  If you are putting 90% of your 401K in BRIC markets...you are either an extreme risk taker or doing it wrong.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on November 26, 2018, 06:35:52 PM
Really? SFRs are the easiest real estate investments to manage compared to Retail, Industrial, Multi-family, or Office. I guess the difference of hassle / headache factor would be purchasing a "A" class rental in Irvine vs "C - D" residential in Compton. I can you show my extensive research why I believe India will outperform US Stocks and bonds in the next 10-20 years, but this will be for a different thread at a different time. I am also bullish on Gold/Commodities long term (buy and hold) as we are near bottom of the next commodity cycle boom at the moment. I am not a trader. I am a buy and hold long  term investor.

Irvinecommuter, Near term, it may not be such a bad idea to shift 90% of your 401k into long term treasury bonds.

Mety,
You are correct. Comparing Atlanta and Los Angeles is sort of like comparing India vs USA. Los Angeles is a first tier city whereas Atlanta is an emerging city. In the next 10-20 years, I would place my bets on India Sensex vs S&P500.

If I told that I was investing in an up and coming affluent city in Franklin TN, The Irvine of Nashville, I would get laughed at 6-7 years ago.  There is a major population shift to the south currently taking place.

Investments are different than whether you live.  I would not invest in residential real estate...especially one not near me.  Too much hassle/headache. 

You may place your bet in India Stock market but you wouldn't want to park your nest egg there.  You will want to keep most of it in US stock market and bonds.  If you are putting 90% of your 401K in BRIC markets...you are either an extreme risk taker or doing it wrong.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: paperboyNC on November 26, 2018, 07:48:23 PM
Bear in mind that so few of the "smart guys in the room" saw the 2007-2008 housing turn and an equally small number of folks saw the market bottom in 2010. It's nice to speculate as we are doing now, but by the time someone can firmly plant the flag into the turn or the bottom, opportunity has more than likely passed.


My .02c

SGIP

Everyone that walked and talked told me to buy in 2006. I told them they were crazy - rent was less than half the cost of buying.

I kept checking the math and what do you know, renting was a lot more expensive than buying in 2012 (once interest rates came down) so I bought.

Right now it's still cheaper for me to keep my home than to sell it and rent. With housing prices stabilizing, it may stay that way for a while.

If I could rent my home for half the cost of owning, I'd sell in a heart beat.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 27, 2018, 06:32:38 AM

Show me the data when there was a sustained 30% downturn for Irvine.

I realize this wasnt directed towards me but....  28% drop, close enough.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

To break it down even further...detached properties/single family homes went down 15-25% while attached condos went down 30-40% in Irvine.

If you would agree that 4 bed homes are likely all detached/single family homes, then it would appear that these dropped even more than median.  Trulia suggest a 31% drop from peak to trough, thus your upper range seems a bit low.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Furthermore if you break it down by bedrooms, Irvine had a 48% drop in 1 beds, 36% drop in 2 beds , 25% drop in 3 beds, and again 31% drop in 4 beds.   Where are the homes that drop 15%?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 27, 2018, 06:56:28 AM

Show me the data when there was a sustained 30% downturn for Irvine.

I realize this wasnt directed towards me but....  28% drop, close enough.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Where's the rest of my post?

Quote
Then show me the same time frame data for cities surrounding Irvine.

Since LL was using a comparative argument, it's important to add context. I haven't looked but I'm sure the data will show that surrounding cities dropped more.

And while peak to trough might be 28%, the reason I said sustained 30% downturn because even during the 2010-12 period, which was supposed to be the bottom, there were some ups and downs that coincided with the normal selling seasons of real estate where prices were higher than 28% off.

This is another characteristic of Irvine real estate that I mentioned before, slower to drop... faster to rise... so discounted housing doesn't stay around for long. Ask anyone who was buying in 2012-2013 and saw Irvine real estate jump. Or maybe like LL says, that's not just in Irvine... but it sure felt like it.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 27, 2018, 08:52:50 AM
Really? SFRs are the easiest real estate investments to manage compared to Retail, Industrial, Multi-family, or Office. I guess the difference of hassle / headache factor would be purchasing a "A" class rental in Irvine vs "C - D" residential in Compton. I can you show my extensive research why I believe India will outperform US Stocks and bonds in the next 10-20 years, but this will be for a different thread at a different time. I am also bullish on Gold/Commodities long term (buy and hold) as we are near bottom of the next commodity cycle boom at the moment. I am not a trader. I am a buy and hold long  term investor.

Irvinecommuter, Near term, it may not be such a bad idea to shift 90% of your 401k into long term treasury bonds.

Mety,
You are correct. Comparing Atlanta and Los Angeles is sort of like comparing India vs USA. Los Angeles is a first tier city whereas Atlanta is an emerging city. In the next 10-20 years, I would place my bets on India Sensex vs S&P500.

If I told that I was investing in an up and coming affluent city in Franklin TN, The Irvine of Nashville, I would get laughed at 6-7 years ago.  There is a major population shift to the south currently taking place.

Investments are different than whether you live.  I would not invest in residential real estate...especially one not near me.  Too much hassle/headache. 

You may place your bet in India Stock market but you wouldn't want to park your nest egg there.  You will want to keep most of it in US stock market and bonds.  If you are putting 90% of your 401K in BRIC markets...you are either an extreme risk taker or doing it wrong.


I am opposite of you on the investment strategy.  I think that commodities are a thing of the past. Gold will become less and less valuable as currency becomes virtual and the world globalize.  You put money into a bank...you can withdraw funds from all over the world.   Unless you live in a 3rd world country...it does not really matter. 

Oil will also become irrelevant in the near future because of renewable energy and electric vehicles.   Even the Saudis realize this and are attempting to diversify repeatedly.

As for real estate, I have no need to manage an individual property.  Multi-unit properties have more leeway and value in the longterm than a SFR.  It makes more sense to hire management companies to manage a multi-unit property than a few SFRs.   If the real estate market is doing well, I can just buy into REITs.

BRIC nations have a fundamental reliability issue...people don't trust them or their governments.  Chinese stock market is basically domestic money as is India stock market.  Why would I want to invest in risk on top of risk? 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 27, 2018, 09:15:52 AM
Interesting question... I was just looking at latest statistics on Tranio https://tranio.com/ (https://tranio.com/) and my bet is 2022

I would only by overseas in a place that I want to go and live in my older days.  Seoul or Taipei for me.

Place I would considering buying a retirement home at:  Portland, Las Vegas, and maybe Arizona.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 27, 2018, 10:32:26 AM

Show me the data when there was a sustained 30% downturn for Irvine.

I realize this wasnt directed towards me but....  28% drop, close enough.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Where's the rest of my post?

Quote
Then show me the same time frame data for cities surrounding Irvine.

Since LL was using a comparative argument, it's important to add context. I haven't looked but I'm sure the data will show that surrounding cities dropped more.

And while peak to trough might be 28%, the reason I said sustained 30% downturn because even during the 2010-12 period, which was supposed to be the bottom, there were some ups and downs that coincided with the normal selling seasons of real estate where prices were higher than 28% off.

This is another characteristic of Irvine real estate that I mentioned before, slower to drop... faster to rise... so discounted housing doesn't stay around for long. Ask anyone who was buying in 2012-2013 and saw Irvine real estate jump. Or maybe like LL says, that's not just in Irvine... but it sure felt like it.

You asked for date and I gave it to you.  You claimed Irvine only dropped 15%.  We all know that is not true and the data proves it. 
BTW Irvine is not always slower to drop and faster to rise.  True Irvine dropped less than surrounding areas during last downturn, but you forget almost all surrounding cities rose more from 2000 to 2007 compared to Irvine.  All in all, if you take into factor price appreciation and depreciation over the last 2 decades (2000 till now), the level of overall appreciation is about the same for most cities in this area - anywhere between 257% to 274%.   
My point for responding to your post is to highlight what LiarLoan was trying to say.  You have a revisionist history.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 27, 2018, 11:33:23 AM

Show me the data when there was a sustained 30% downturn for Irvine.

I realize this wasnt directed towards me but....  28% drop, close enough.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Where's the rest of my post?

Quote
Then show me the same time frame data for cities surrounding Irvine.

Since LL was using a comparative argument, it's important to add context. I haven't looked but I'm sure the data will show that surrounding cities dropped more.

And while peak to trough might be 28%, the reason I said sustained 30% downturn because even during the 2010-12 period, which was supposed to be the bottom, there were some ups and downs that coincided with the normal selling seasons of real estate where prices were higher than 28% off.

This is another characteristic of Irvine real estate that I mentioned before, slower to drop... faster to rise... so discounted housing doesn't stay around for long. Ask anyone who was buying in 2012-2013 and saw Irvine real estate jump. Or maybe like LL says, that's not just in Irvine... but it sure felt like it.

You asked for date and I gave it to you.

No... I asked for a comparison of surrounding cities with Irvine. It was the next sentence in the paragraph which you cut out.

Quote
You claimed Irvine only dropped 15%.  We all know that is not true and the data proves it. 

Show me where I claimed *all* of Irvine only dropped 15%. What I *did* say was that the homes *I* was looking for, dropped in that range... some even as little as 10%.

Quote
BTW Irvine is not always slower to drop and faster to rise.  True Irvine dropped less than surrounding areas during last downturn, but you forget almost all surrounding cities rose more from 2000 to 2007 compared to Irvine.  All in all, if you take into factor price appreciation and depreciation over the last 2 decades (2000 till now), the level of overall appreciation is about the same for most cities in this area - anywhere between 257% to 274%.   

How does this disprove what I am saying? You're speaking to quantity while I am speaking to speed and timing. Not an apple to oranges comparison.

Quote
My point for responding to your post is to highlight what LiarLoan was trying to say.  You have a revisionist history.

How can you claim revisionist history when you weren't even even shopping in Irving during that time nor were you active on IHB? So all you have is numbers to look at, no experience, no personal history, no context on previous conversations... as I've said before, there is more to analysis than just looking at numbers.

I've detailed what I went through, what we bought and what we sold... why would I revise that? It's the truth. What have you shown me otherwise? Unless you were my realtor or my spouse... what do you know about my history?

I don't understand you... about 4 years ago you come to TI asking for opinions and people's advice on buying, upgrades, etc and then somewhere midway through you start distrusting opinions and saying that an anonymous forum isn't really the best place to get advice and that your own opinion doesn't really matter when we ask for it (I hope I'm not misquoting you here). So why are you here?

I even stopped responding to you to keep things copacetic but then you feel the need to chime in whenever LiarLoan throws a dig at me.

Do you think I'm the only one who believes Irvine real estate is more stable? Why did you buy in Irvine if you don't have that same feeling in the back of your mind somewhere? Why aren't you questioning Inc or whoever has the same opinion that I do? Why aren't you calling out anyone else's history?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 27, 2018, 11:54:03 AM
Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 27, 2018, 11:56:59 AM
Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

I don't get the Irvine bashing.  I mean it is a desirable place to live...are people running around arguing whether NYC or Tokyo real estate is immuned to price falls?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 27, 2018, 12:52:36 PM

Show me the data when there was a sustained 30% downturn for Irvine.

I realize this wasnt directed towards me but....  28% drop, close enough.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Where's the rest of my post?

Quote
Then show me the same time frame data for cities surrounding Irvine.

Since LL was using a comparative argument, it's important to add context. I haven't looked but I'm sure the data will show that surrounding cities dropped more.

And while peak to trough might be 28%, the reason I said sustained 30% downturn because even during the 2010-12 period, which was supposed to be the bottom, there were some ups and downs that coincided with the normal selling seasons of real estate where prices were higher than 28% off.

This is another characteristic of Irvine real estate that I mentioned before, slower to drop... faster to rise... so discounted housing doesn't stay around for long. Ask anyone who was buying in 2012-2013 and saw Irvine real estate jump. Or maybe like LL says, that's not just in Irvine... but it sure felt like it.

You asked for date and I gave it to you.

No... I asked for a comparison of surrounding cities with Irvine. It was the next sentence in the paragraph which you cut out.

Quote
You claimed Irvine only dropped 15%.  We all know that is not true and the data proves it. 

Show me where I claimed *all* of Irvine only dropped 15%. What I *did* say was that the homes *I* was looking for, dropped in that range... some even as little as 10%.

Quote
BTW Irvine is not always slower to drop and faster to rise.  True Irvine dropped less than surrounding areas during last downturn, but you forget almost all surrounding cities rose more from 2000 to 2007 compared to Irvine.  All in all, if you take into factor price appreciation and depreciation over the last 2 decades (2000 till now), the level of overall appreciation is about the same for most cities in this area - anywhere between 257% to 274%.   

How does this disprove what I am saying? You're speaking to quantity while I am speaking to speed and timing. Not an apple to oranges comparison.

Quote
My point for responding to your post is to highlight what LiarLoan was trying to say.  You have a revisionist history.

How can you claim revisionist history when you weren't even even shopping in Irving during that time nor were you active on IHB? So all you have is numbers to look at, no experience, no personal history, no context on previous conversations... as I've said before, there is more to analysis than just looking at numbers.

I've detailed what I went through, what we bought and what we sold... why would I revise that? It's the truth. What have you shown me otherwise? Unless you were my realtor or my spouse... what do you know about my history?

I don't understand you... about 4 years ago you come to TI asking for opinions and people's advice on buying, upgrades, etc and then somewhere midway through you start distrusting opinions and saying that an anonymous forum isn't really the best place to get advice and that your own opinion doesn't really matter when we ask for it (I hope I'm not misquoting you here). So why are you here?

I even stopped responding to you to keep things copacetic but then you feel the need to chime in whenever LiarLoan throws a dig at me.

Do you think I'm the only one who believes Irvine real estate is more stable? Why did you buy in Irvine if you don't have that same feeling in the back of your mind somewhere? Why aren't you questioning Inc or whoever has the same opinion that I do? Why aren't you calling out anyone else's history?

From a third person perspective, I can't really find a huge disagreement between you guys. It's just a matter of where you guys are focusing on.

Irvine did drop quite significantly after 2008. Approximately about 30%. This 30% is the number of the city as a whole (while other areas dropped more). IHO keeps focusing on HIS range which I assume $1m-$1.5m or SFR with 3CWG which does not represent every home in Irvine even though that is the range the majority of TI members might be looking at (that big middle finger poll graph). meccos12 keeps giving a bigger picture information like nationwide slowdown or Irvine as a whole city not focusing on a certain price range.

I believe meccos12 provided more than enough information to back up his opinion and IHO shared even his personal experiences to give examples.

So in my understanding, you guys are actually talking about the same thing, just focusing on different areas. You guys even agreed that this slowdown won't go down as much as the last crash. 


Bottom line is Irvine did drop about 30% after the last crash although more demanding homes like SFRs dropped less (only about 10% from IHO's experience)  and recovered pretty quick and better than other surrounding OC areas.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on November 27, 2018, 01:00:28 PM
Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

Meccos is waiting for the ripe time. I think the bashing between liar and meccos keep the forum interesting and showing their hands in the game. Personally, I would buy to live Irvine not for pure CAP and appreciation. That's easy to say because most of us here have bought during the low rides. Now, if I would to wait and buy I would pump the down talk to get price lower.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 27, 2018, 01:05:43 PM
Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

Meccos is waiting for the ripe time. I think the bashing between liar and meccos keep the forum interesting and showing their hands in the game. Personally, I would buy to live Irvine not for pure CAP and appreciation. That's easy to say because most of us here have bought during the low rides. Now, if I would to wait and buy I would pump the down talk to get price lower.

I believe meccos12 only provided the current flow and the possible future prediction. So did eyephone also. I don't think they've ever bashed on Irvine except saying Delano is overpriced.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on November 27, 2018, 03:21:56 PM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 27, 2018, 04:02:35 PM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 27, 2018, 04:08:14 PM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 27, 2018, 04:16:03 PM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!

I don't need to be mayor...just stating reality.   It's just weird to me why there is a need to create a counter narrative. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 27, 2018, 05:10:43 PM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!

I don't need to be mayor...just stating reality.   It's just weird to me why there is a need to create a counter narrative.

I was joking. Although I would vote for YF or BTB if he runs.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 27, 2018, 05:44:36 PM
Why aren't you questioning Inc or whoever has the same opinion that I do? Why aren't you calling out anyone else's history?

Because other people dont make false or extravagant claims as you do.  All opinions are welcome and moreso if it can be backed up with some evidence or data instead of one person's single experience or anecdotal evidence.  Do you see anyone else here claiming home prices dropped only 10% or that this slowdown is seasonal?  I have no issues with your opinion but rather in the manner in which you post false and misleading posts to make Irvine seem immune to the current downward pressures.   If it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, looks like a duck, its a duck....  not Irvine.   
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 27, 2018, 05:50:11 PM
Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

Meccos is waiting for the ripe time. I think the bashing between liar and meccos keep the forum interesting and showing their hands in the game. Personally, I would buy to live Irvine not for pure CAP and appreciation. That's easy to say because most of us here have bought during the low rides. Now, if I would to wait and buy I would pump the down talk to get price lower.

LOL CV,  only if I had that much power to influence prices.  You are more foolish than I thought if you think one or two people had that much influence on a blog that is visited by a small fraction of home buyers.  If you consider pointing out the obvious slowdown in housing "bashing" then I think I know where your hand is in the game.  If I was in the market to buy a house now and wanted prices to drop, I wouldnt need to bash housing on a blog, all I would need to do is wait.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on November 27, 2018, 05:52:45 PM
Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

Meccos is waiting for the ripe time. I think the bashing between liar and meccos keep the forum interesting and showing their hands in the game. Personally, I would buy to live Irvine not for pure CAP and appreciation. That's easy to say because most of us here have bought during the low rides. Now, if I would to wait and buy I would pump the down talk to get price lower.

I believe meccos12 only provided the current flow and the possible future prediction. So did eyephone also. I don't think they've ever bashed on Irvine except saying Delano is overpriced.
Well for some people anything negative or not positive about Irvine is considered bashing, even if the facts state so.
BTW I dont think I've ever said Delano was overpriced... even though it is.    :P
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 27, 2018, 08:37:55 PM
Why aren't you questioning Inc or whoever has the same opinion that I do? Why aren't you calling out anyone else's history?

Because other people dont make false or extravagant claims as you do.  All opinions are welcome and moreso if it can be backed up with some evidence or data instead of one person's single experience or anecdotal evidence.  Do you see anyone else here claiming home prices dropped only 10% or that this slowdown is seasonal?  I have no issues with your opinion but rather in the manner in which you post false and misleading posts to make Irvine seem immune to the current downward pressures.   If it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, looks like a duck, its a duck....  not Irvine.

So you hate strawman but look what you just did.

Find the post where I said all of Irvine dropped 10%. You won’t just like you can’t find the one where I said all of Irvine dropped 15% either. Who is revisionist now?

And I asked if it was seasonal because this is the time of year when prices and volume slows. As it has during the peak and the trough. You keep forgetting the part where I asked if this is not a seasonal slowdown, how much and how long. But you always gloss over that.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

So both USC and IC have said the same thing I did. Others have expressed the same sentiment which you say is not true. It’s not just my opinion now.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on November 27, 2018, 08:44:45 PM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!

I don't need to be mayor...just stating reality.   It's just weird to me why there is a need to create a counter narrative.

I was joking. Although I would vote for YF or BTB if he runs.

Since Belly bounced. Mety for city council.  ;D
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: aquabliss on November 28, 2018, 02:15:29 AM
Uh oh, ish just got real ;)
https://www.ocregister.com/2018/11/27/irvine-tustin-homebuying-cools-sales-tumble-14/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 28, 2018, 07:52:06 AM
And I actually don't think meccos is bashing Irvine... as I've said, he has to have some belief in Irvine's price stability because he bought here (at least I think he did).

But at the same time, he's making the same assumptions the numbers people made 10 years ago, fundamentals are not the only thing that affects Irvine pricing.

And I'm not sure where he and LL get this notion that Irvine didn't fall slower and recover faster. Maybe it's just anecdotal but even by the data, if a city has a smaller percentage fall than surrounding cities, doesn't that mean just that?

And I will stand by my contention that 28% is an extreme measurement and doesn't characterize the *sustained* drop in Irvine prices. I think Cares or Kings did a rolling 6 month average for 2016-17 compared to 2018 and that same methodology should be applied back during the crash. I even posted this before in Housing Analysis thread (and did mention the same 28% number in red):

I just checked Truila:

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

If you look at the rolling average price from about 06-07 it's about $690k as the high. Then you look at 2012 and the average rolling low looks around $550k.

That's about 20%.


I can take the absolute high ($714k?) and the absolute low ($515k?) and that comes out to about 28% but I don't think that's a fair representation of prices for a reasonable time frame.

As Irvinecommuter said, you really have to cherry pick to get that 28% number, but LL likes to use that as his basis for Irvine not being "safer".

But let's visit his "safe" list and use his same measurement:

This mythology that Irvine is "safer" than other places to park your capital is betrayed by the facts - a 30% decline during the last downturn, and a 15-20% decline during the downturn before that. 

It's revisionist history to say that Irvine was safer, and is really a form of cognitive dissonance for those that want to convince themselves that prices can't go down.  If you really want safety, there are other places that will protect your "investment" much better.  Try CDM, NB, LB, etc.  Areas with long time owners and old money will weather the storm best. 

I'll do Newport because I used to want to live there:

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Newport_Beach-California/market-trends/

High: ~Jul 07 - $1.6m
Low: ~Jul 12 - $862,500 (there is a lower low in 09 of $800k but I wanted to keep the time frame similar to Irvine)
Drop: 46%

So let's be fair and use a rolling average, a little hard to do with the graph but:

High: ~07-08 - $1.4m
Low: ~11-12 - $1.05m
Drop: 25%

Hmm... so using LL's extreme high/low, Irvine's 28% is much "safer" than Newport's 46%. Using the rolling average, Irvine's 20% to Newport's 25%, they are much closer to each other which is what I would expect.

Eyeballing Trulia data for both CDM and Laguna Beach shows even a higher drop using LL's method.

Now... I didn't really shop NB, CDM or LB back then but I would imagine the discounts were less depending on the stock you were shopping but that goes to my point that just the numbers don't tell the true story. They give you an idea but you really need to take into account what buyers and sellers were actually experiencing to get a better picture.

So, unless I did my calculations wrong, which city is "safer"?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 28, 2018, 02:34:48 PM
Irvine is great. Just buy one for you and your family.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 28, 2018, 02:37:56 PM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!

I don't need to be mayor...just stating reality.   It's just weird to me why there is a need to create a counter narrative.

I was joking. Although I would vote for YF or BTB if he runs.

Since Belly bounced. Mety for city council.  ;D

Yellow Belly will be back. Stay tuned.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on November 28, 2018, 02:49:53 PM
@mety

How do you know?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on November 28, 2018, 03:23:32 PM
@mety

How do you know?

He always does. And we always know.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 29, 2018, 02:32:51 PM
So I've been looking at Trulia a bit more and it seems to confirm what several us have been saying in regards to Irvine's slowness to drop and quickness to recover.

Pick any city surrounding Irvine, and you will see one or more of these trends:

1. Prices start dropping earlier than Irvine's does
2. Prices drop farther than Irvine's does
3. Prices rise back up to peak later than Irvine does

Am I reading that data wrong?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 30, 2018, 10:16:20 AM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

You are basing this opinion on a single data point ~ the last downturn.  There have been previous downturns where this wasn't the case.  Unless you can break down the reasons for why this occurred for the first time in 2008, and why it might happen again in the 2020's, it's not guaranteed that the same behavior will repeat.

For example ~ You can also say the 2001 recession had OC (including Irvine) outperforming the Bay Area.  San Francisco lost about 10% while LA/OC was flattish to slightly up.  Yet if you had predicted that to happen again during the next downturn (2008) the exact opposite occurred.  The Bay Area held up much better than LA/OC during the Great Recession on a relative basis.

So again, you need to break down the reasons why Irvine fared better in 2008 and determine if those same conditions will still apply in 2024.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 30, 2018, 10:23:13 AM
Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

Meccos is waiting for the ripe time. I think the bashing between liar and meccos keep the forum interesting and showing their hands in the game. Personally, I would buy to live Irvine not for pure CAP and appreciation. That's easy to say because most of us here have bought during the low rides. Now, if I would to wait and buy I would pump the down talk to get price lower.

I've always viewed it as my job to "keep things interesting" here.  However, it doesn't really show my hand in the game.  I'm not interested in buying in Irvine so it's just for the sake of trying to counter some of the pro-Irvine bias that I see posted here all too often.  I'm providing the perspective of a neutral third party.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 30, 2018, 02:22:44 PM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

You are basing this opinion on a single data point ~ the last downturn.  There have been previous downturns where this wasn't the case.  Unless you can break down the reasons for why this occurred for the first time in 2008, and why it might happen again in the 2020's, it's not guaranteed that the same behavior will repeat.

I see what you're saying here but I believe I observed the same price stickiness for Irvine during the 90s crash. A relative of mine who lived in South County had a greater price fluctuation than my friends in Irvine (so much so they wished they bought in Irvine instead). If there is a site with city by city data that goes back that far, please link me and I'll do some data churning to see if that's true like it was in 2006-2013.

And maybe the last crash was the first time Irvine exhibited better price stability (are you admitting that? :) ), but that could be because of the influx of FCBs (!) and why the predictions of percentage of drop for Irvine were inaccurate. Which actually helps solidify Irvine doing better in the 90s or else why would FCBs put their money into Irvine? And that demographic has only increased from then to now so it's not far fetched to think that Irvine pricing would remain stubborn (not immune mind you) for current and future downturns.

Quote
For example ~ You can also say the 2001 recession had OC (including Irvine) outperforming the Bay Area.  San Francisco lost about 10% while LA/OC was flattish to slightly up.  Yet if you had predicted that to happen again during the next downturn (2008) the exact opposite occurred.  The Bay Area held up much better than LA/OC during the Great Recession on a relative basis.

Not sure you can compare areas that are that geographically distant.

The better comparison would be proximate cities like Irvine, Tustin, Costa Mesa, Santa Ana, Aliso Viejo etc.

Quote

So again, you need to break down the reasons why Irvine fared better in 2008 and determine if those same conditions will still apply in 2024.


I think they well.

Although I'm confused because you are saying that "Irvine fared better in 2008" but originally you said it was "revisionist history". :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 30, 2018, 02:35:39 PM
Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

Meccos is waiting for the ripe time. I think the bashing between liar and meccos keep the forum interesting and showing their hands in the game. Personally, I would buy to live Irvine not for pure CAP and appreciation. That's easy to say because most of us here have bought during the low rides. Now, if I would to wait and buy I would pump the down talk to get price lower.

I've always viewed it as my job to "keep things interesting" here.  However, it doesn't really show my hand in the game.  I'm not interested in buying in Irvine so it's just for the sake of trying to counter some of the pro-Irvine bias that I see posted here all too often.  I'm providing the perspective of a neutral third party.

See..I don't understand how saying that Irvine is more resilient to falling house prices make anyone "Pro-Irvine"
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 30, 2018, 02:38:23 PM
I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.   Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

You are basing this opinion on a single data point ~ the last downturn.  There have been previous downturns where this wasn't the case.  Unless you can break down the reasons for why this occurred for the first time in 2008, and why it might happen again in the 2020's, it's not guaranteed that the same behavior will repeat.

For example ~ You can also say the 2001 recession had OC (including Irvine) outperforming the Bay Area.  San Francisco lost about 10% while LA/OC was flattish to slightly up.  Yet if you had predicted that to happen again during the next downturn (2008) the exact opposite occurred.  The Bay Area held up much better than LA/OC during the Great Recession on a relative basis.

So again, you need to break down the reasons why Irvine fared better in 2008 and determine if those same conditions will still apply in 2024.

How far back do we need to go?  2001 recession was uniquely affecting BA because the boom was relating to Silicon Valley and the rise/fall of the dot.com.  Regardless, there is no dispute that both BA and Irvine are highly valuable real estate that are more resilient to dropping prices and rise earlier and faster than other areas. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on November 30, 2018, 03:30:38 PM
I think there is obviously confirmation bias at play here for those who live in Irvine but looking at just the hard data - Irvine s biggest strength is openness to multiple demographics and offering something for everyone.

Yes some people only want the beach , and for many of them living in Huntington Beach or San Clemente Maybe better alternatives but those areas will fall harder in a downturn given lack of jobs and “narrowcasting “ the audience .

Same goes for Newport Beach . Yes , tonier , but not as “welcoming” to all . Thereby narrowcasting.

 yes , the big $$ homes in pelican hill and coastal CDM always will have The likes of NBA superstars and celebrities who want to live there but More inland Newport will likely suffer a worse decline than Irvine .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 03, 2018, 10:26:06 AM
Although I'm confused because you are saying that "Irvine fared better in 2008" but originally you said it was "revisionist history". :)

Irvine did fare better than other areas in OC.  What I was saying was revisionist was this idea that it only fell by 10-15%, when the raw numbers dispute that.  It's been repeated so many times that I have seen new/infrequent posters repeat it as if it were fact.  They don't have the analysis skills or data to know any differently, so they take what is consensus here as the truth about Irvine.  The fact is a first time buyer would still have been much better off waiting until 2010-11 to buy than suffering that massive 30% drop in 2008.

See..I don't understand how saying that Irvine is more resilient to falling house prices make anyone "Pro-Irvine"

Saying Irvine is more resilient is fine, but I get the sense that some people believe it is immune to price drops going forward based on the belief that Irvine is that special.

Irvine s biggest strength is openness to multiple demographics and offering something for everyone.

This same argument could be made about Westminster / Garden Grove / etc.  The pricing data doesn't show any particular resilience to price declines in these other areas.  I think demographics are secondary and the flow of capital is primary.  Irvine was more resilient because what was once seen as a boring middle class area was suddenly attractive to wealthy overseas buyers that were willing to pay more and were immune to the 2008 recession due to their protected investments overseas.  That may or may not be the case next time around.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 10:43:04 AM
Irvine s biggest strength is openness to multiple demographics and offering something for everyone.

This same argument could be made about Westminster / Garden Grove / etc.  The pricing data doesn't show any particular resilience to price declines in these other areas.  I think demographics are secondary and the flow of capital is primary.  Irvine was more resilient because what was once seen as a boring middle class area was suddenly attractive to wealthy overseas buyers that were willing to pay more and were immune to the 2008 recession due to their protected investments overseas.  That may or may not be the case next time around.

Sorry...that's just wrong. 

1) TIC was selling Irvine/OC in Asia for years before the downturn. 

2) For example, Irvine is well known outside of the US as a place for Chinse to settle down in.  New homes, safe community, lots of other Chinese people, and great schools.  That is why places like Arcadia and San Marino are popular with Chinese/Asians...also see Walnut, Cerritos, and RH/Diamond Bar.

3)  Chinese FCBs were not buying to "immune" their investment.  They were doing it to get their families out of China and for investment green cards.  A house in Irvine is small potatoes for those coming in 2008/2009.   

4)  Demographics is definitely a thing for foreign buyers/immigrants. 

5)  Irvine also has access to high level white collar jobs...it is very similar to the BA (which is heavy in tech jobs). 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 03, 2018, 11:10:26 AM
Organic buyers and new families formation add to the stickiness in pricing. Young, well to do couples also love the newness and master planned neighborhoods.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 03, 2018, 11:15:04 AM
Irvine s biggest strength is openness to multiple demographics and offering something for everyone.

This same argument could be made about Westminster / Garden Grove / etc.  The pricing data doesn't show any particular resilience to price declines in these other areas.  I think demographics are secondary and the flow of capital is primary.  Irvine was more resilient because what was once seen as a boring middle class area was suddenly attractive to wealthy overseas buyers that were willing to pay more and were immune to the 2008 recession due to their protected investments overseas.  That may or may not be the case next time around.

Sorry...that's just wrong. 

1) TIC was selling Irvine/OC in Asia for years before the downturn. 

2) For example, Irvine is well known outside of the US as a place for Chinse to settle down in.  New homes, safe community, lots of other Chinese people, and great schools.  That is why places like Arcadia and San Marino are popular with Chinese/Asians...also see Walnut, Cerritos, and RH/Diamond Bar.

3)  Chinese FCBs were not buying to "immune" their investment.  They were doing it to get their families out of China and for investment green cards.  A house in Irvine is small potatoes for those coming in 2008/2009.   

4)  Demographics is definitely a thing for foreign buyers/immigrants. 

5)  Irvine also has access to high level white collar jobs...it is very similar to the BA (which is heavy in tech jobs).

1) Yeah, so?

2) I agree, but this doesn't take anything away from my point.

3) You misread what I was saying.  What I meant was they were mostly immune to the financial crisis because their assets were based in China.

4) Demographics may be a thing for foreign buyers, but it's not a thing for resilience to housing downturns.  See Garden Grove / Westminster as examples.

5) All of LA/OC has access to white collar jobs.  This doesn't explain resilience to falling prices.  White collar jobs were hit very, very hard in Irvine during the Great Recession.  Tens of thousands of real estate and mortgage jobs were taken out in a very short amount of time.  Many sales people went from making an easy $500-600k per year to $0 in a matter of months.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 03, 2018, 11:20:21 AM
Organic buyers and new families formation add to the stickiness in pricing. Young, well to do couples also love the newness and master planned neighborhoods.

This same paradigm existed in 2008 just as Irvine was losing 30% of its value.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 11:27:53 AM
Irvine s biggest strength is openness to multiple demographics and offering something for everyone.

This same argument could be made about Westminster / Garden Grove / etc.  The pricing data doesn't show any particular resilience to price declines in these other areas.  I think demographics are secondary and the flow of capital is primary.  Irvine was more resilient because what was once seen as a boring middle class area was suddenly attractive to wealthy overseas buyers that were willing to pay more and were immune to the 2008 recession due to their protected investments overseas.  That may or may not be the case next time around.

Sorry...that's just wrong. 

1) TIC was selling Irvine/OC in Asia for years before the downturn. 

2) For example, Irvine is well known outside of the US as a place for Chinse to settle down in.  New homes, safe community, lots of other Chinese people, and great schools.  That is why places like Arcadia and San Marino are popular with Chinese/Asians...also see Walnut, Cerritos, and RH/Diamond Bar.

3)  Chinese FCBs were not buying to "immune" their investment.  They were doing it to get their families out of China and for investment green cards.  A house in Irvine is small potatoes for those coming in 2008/2009.   

4)  Demographics is definitely a thing for foreign buyers/immigrants. 

5)  Irvine also has access to high level white collar jobs...it is very similar to the BA (which is heavy in tech jobs).

1) Yeah, so?

2) I agree, but this doesn't take anything away from my point.

3) You misread what I was saying.  What I meant was they were mostly immune to the financial crisis because their assets were based in China.

4) Demographics may be a thing for foreign buyers, but it's not a thing for resilience to housing downturns.  See Garden Grove / Westminster as examples.

5) All of LA/OC has access to white collar jobs.  This doesn't explain resilience to falling prices.  White collar jobs were hit very, very hard in Irvine during the Great Recession.  Tens of thousands of real estate and mortgage jobs were taken out in a very short amount of time.  Many sales people went from making an easy $500-600k per year to $0 in a matter of months.

1)  It means that appeal of Irvine to foreign buyers is was not "sudden".

2)  It does because you seem to discount the appeal of places like Irvine.  San Marino and Arcadia has been around for awhile...why are they more resilient to price falls than Norwalk or Fontana?   There are master planned communities in the IE...why aren't FCB going there?

3)  Okay but why did those buyers have to come to Irvine?  Why not elsewhere?

4)  Again...it is a plus to note as to why Irvine is more resilient to price falls.  Just like weather, access to jobs, etc...

5)  No...that all of LA has access to good white collar jobs.  Having to drive 2+ hours to get to work does not equate access. 

Again...resilient does not mean immuned...even NYC, Tokyo, London, and Malibu are not immuned to falling housing prices.  Question is how much resilience and why.

Housing is basically supply and demand...the more demand you can build into the product...the higher the price.  Irvine has mass appeal especially to those with money, both domestically and foreign.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 03, 2018, 12:28:01 PM
What I was saying was revisionist was this idea that it only fell by 10-15%, when the raw numbers dispute that.  It's been repeated so many times that I have seen new/infrequent posters repeat it as if it were fact. 

Who caress about facts and real data!!!  The 10-15% drop in prices was ONLY homes IHO personally saw.  IHO's personal experience is more telling about Irvine housing than real aggregate data!   BTW does anyone know which homes he saw?    :o
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 12:31:55 PM
What I was saying was revisionist was this idea that it only fell by 10-15%, when the raw numbers dispute that.  It's been repeated so many times that I have seen new/infrequent posters repeat it as if it were fact. 

Who caress about facts and real data!!!  The 10-15% drop in prices was ONLY homes IHO personally saw.  IHO's personal experience is more telling about Irvine housing than real aggregate data!   BTW does anyone know which homes he saw?    :o

I am curious as to why you are so adamant about the Irvine issue...I mean 15% versus 30% is not that important unless you are selling at the low.  More important are 1) the amount of time for prices to recover and 2) what the prices are when they do return. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 03, 2018, 12:49:33 PM
What I was saying was revisionist was this idea that it only fell by 10-15%, when the raw numbers dispute that.  It's been repeated so many times that I have seen new/infrequent posters repeat it as if it were fact. 

Who caress about facts and real data!!!  The 10-15% drop in prices was ONLY homes IHO personally saw.  IHO's personal experience is more telling about Irvine housing than real aggregate data!   BTW does anyone know which homes he saw?    :o

I am curious as to why you are so adamant about the Irvine issue...I mean 15% versus 30% is not that important unless you are selling at the low.  More important are 1) the amount of time for prices to recover and 2) what the prices are when they do return.

I am adamant about persons who post false or deceitful posts.
15% vs 30% is a huge difference that any buyer or selling would care about.   In Irvine that is easily 150-250K.
No one can predict time for recovery and prices so it is pointless to try to predict these.  However it is important to recognize a slowdown in housing as it is occurring right now.  You, like IHO, are focusing on all the wrong things.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on December 03, 2018, 12:57:45 PM
Looking at aggregate house price groupings by city boundaries is amateur.  This is not how larger real estate companies decide when and if to invest.  There are so many other factors that go into each property that I see little point in discussing if 'Irvine' is more resiliant to prices falling than say, Tustin or or Cypress.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 03, 2018, 01:02:02 PM
Looking at aggregate house price groupings by city boundaries is amateur.  This is not how larger real estate companies decide when and if to invest.  There are so many other factors that go into each property that I see little point in discussing if 'Irvine' is more resiliant to prices falling than say, Tustin or or Cypress.

You have look at the purpose of what you are doing when looking at pricing.  I agree if you are looking to invest in a particular property, I would not look at aggregate housing prices in a city boundary.  However if one is making claims that a whole city had a certain price movement of 10-15%, then you have no choice but to look at the whole city. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 03, 2018, 01:26:14 PM
Although I'm confused because you are saying that "Irvine fared better in 2008" but originally you said it was "revisionist history". :)

Irvine did fare better than other areas in OC. What I was saying was revisionist was this idea that it only fell by 10-15%, when the raw numbers dispute that.
This is what you wrote:

It's revisionist history to say that Irvine was safer, and is really a form of cognitive dissonance for those that want to convince themselves that prices can't go down.  If you really want safety, there are other places that will protect your "investment" much better.  Try CDM, NB, LB, etc.  Areas with long time owners and old money will weather the storm best. 

I posted the Trulia data that shows that CDM, NB, LB, etc actually had larger drops using your high/low method and even using a rolling average they still dropped more so I don't think it's revisionist... raw numbers seem to side with Irvine.

Quote
It's been repeated so many times that I have seen new/infrequent posters repeat it as if it were fact.  They don't have the analysis skills or data to know any differently, so they take what is consensus here as the truth about Irvine.

Really? I know that in my own posts I state that it was in the specific housing I was looking at. For others, I think they've tempered it with their own experience. I don't feel anyone has said Irvine housing as a whole only dropped 10 or 15%. You and meccos have to start posting links to back up these assertions.

Quote
The fact is a first time buyer would still have been much better off waiting until 2010-11 to buy than suffering that massive 30% drop in 2008.

This is just like saying prices only dropped 10-15% as a whole. You can't know this as a fact. There are many people who bought in 2008 and actually better off because they couldn't find the same houses in 2010-11. Cheaper houses aren't always the good ones.

As I've said many times before, the numbers of homes you could buy for a 30% discount was few and far between. Your measurement of drop is extreme, you're taking the highest high and the lowest low, but you are not accounting for how much of that inventory was purchasable by the average buyer. If you have the data that shows the volume of homes you could buy at a 30%, I think it will show a different story. That's why I said that you have to use a reasonable time frame to calculate what a true drop was. Using your method, can I really say Newport Beach homes dropped almost 50%? No, because I know that would be a very small percentage of what actually was bought at a discount.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on December 03, 2018, 01:38:42 PM
You guys need make the distinction that this is for investment properties only.
Family homes are priceless, so grading a purchase only on its investment quality is appropriate.

While a family home is a big investment, we should only focus on the investment side, because there's no way to price priceless.



In this case, Irvine dropped 30%, and IHO's experience of an only 10-15% drop in his search for a family home should not be considered.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 03, 2018, 01:45:26 PM
What I was saying was revisionist was this idea that it only fell by 10-15%, when the raw numbers dispute that.  It's been repeated so many times that I have seen new/infrequent posters repeat it as if it were fact. 

Who caress about facts and real data!!!  The 10-15% drop in prices was ONLY homes IHO personally saw.  IHO's personal experience is more telling about Irvine housing than real aggregate data!   BTW does anyone know which homes he saw?    :o


What is the point of this post? To tell LiarLoan and yourself that you both were wrong because the "10-15%" only applied to what I was looking at? Thanks for clearing that up.

Again, it takes more than data to properly analyze the behavior of real estate, so despite what you think, personal experience from people who were shopping Irvine during that time frame does have value.

And if you have to know, I probably looked at close to over 700 homes on Redfin, of that, over 100 of those I went to via open house or our realtor Scott Gunther. That's not counting all the new homes we looked at either.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 03, 2018, 01:55:45 PM
You guys need make the distinction that this is for investment properties only.
Family homes are priceless, so grading a purchase only on its investment quality is appropriate.

While a family home is a big investment, we should only focus on the investment side, because there's no way to price priceless.



In this case, Irvine dropped 30%, and IHO's experience of an only 10-15% drop in his search for a family home should not be considered.

Even as an investment, I disagree.

On the open market, there were not many homes you could find for 30% off in June of 2012 (the $515k low by Trulia's chart).

This is something that people need to understand... even though the absolute median low was 28% lower than the absolute median high, that's not necessarily the same inventory. If more of the stock was SFRs that sold during the high, and then more of the stock was attached condos during the low... you can't say that you could buy an SFR for 28% off. Even if you use the BR count in Trulia, that's not indicative of type of housing, there are tons of 4br condos/townhomes in Irvine but you can't say those are the same value as an SFR. That's why a I prefer to use a rolling time frame as that smooths out the type of inventory and the extremes. This is where I get my 20% drop number which to me is actually more realistic because I did see a few homes that were 20% off in the type I was looking for.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 02:09:33 PM
What I was saying was revisionist was this idea that it only fell by 10-15%, when the raw numbers dispute that.  It's been repeated so many times that I have seen new/infrequent posters repeat it as if it were fact. 

Who caress about facts and real data!!!  The 10-15% drop in prices was ONLY homes IHO personally saw.  IHO's personal experience is more telling about Irvine housing than real aggregate data!   BTW does anyone know which homes he saw?    :o

I am curious as to why you are so adamant about the Irvine issue...I mean 15% versus 30% is not that important unless you are selling at the low.  More important are 1) the amount of time for prices to recover and 2) what the prices are when they do return.

I am adamant about persons who post false or deceitful posts.
15% vs 30% is a huge difference that any buyer or selling would care about.   In Irvine that is easily 150-250K.
No one can predict time for recovery and prices so it is pointless to try to predict these.  However it is important to recognize a slowdown in housing as it is occurring right now.  You, like IHO, are focusing on all the wrong things.

No..because very few people buy at the top or the bottom.  If you buy a house in Irvine in 2006 and it dropped 30%, it is not a big deal unless you have to sell ASAP (which is always a bad idea).   But 12 years later, that house is worth a lot more than what you bought for in 2006.  That is not true for many property area around the country.   

So, unless you are a flipper or desperate to sell, the bottom and top are largely irrelevant...question is resilience and stability.

Slowdown begun awhile...I saw reports of a slowdown in the Spring...Irvine still have strength through the fall. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 02:13:07 PM
You guys need make the distinction that this is for investment properties only.
Family homes are priceless, so grading a purchase only on its investment quality is appropriate.

While a family home is a big investment, we should only focus on the investment side, because there's no way to price priceless.

In this case, Irvine dropped 30%, and IHO's experience of an only 10-15% drop in his search for a family home should not be considered.

Generally, areas that have high prices and good resilience are bad as investments.  You want areas that have big ranges so that you can pick up super cheap and resale fast.  You can't really do that in places like Irvine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on December 03, 2018, 02:47:29 PM
You guys need make the distinction that this is for investment properties only.
Family homes are priceless, so grading a purchase only on its investment quality is appropriate.

While a family home is a big investment, we should only focus on the investment side, because there's no way to price priceless.

In this case, Irvine dropped 30%, and IHO's experience of an only 10-15% drop in his search for a family home should not be considered.

Generally, areas that have high prices and good resilience are bad as investments.  You want areas that have big ranges so that you can pick up super cheap and resale fast.  You can't really do that in places like Irvine.

I can’t tell you how many posts I’ve seen on TI asking if (fill in the blank) would be a good an investment.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 02:54:25 PM
You guys need make the distinction that this is for investment properties only.
Family homes are priceless, so grading a purchase only on its investment quality is appropriate.

While a family home is a big investment, we should only focus on the investment side, because there's no way to price priceless.

In this case, Irvine dropped 30%, and IHO's experience of an only 10-15% drop in his search for a family home should not be considered.

Generally, areas that have high prices and good resilience are bad as investments.  You want areas that have big ranges so that you can pick up super cheap and resale fast.  You can't really do that in places like Irvine.

I can’t tell you how many posts I’ve seen on TI asking if (fill in the blank) would be a good an investment.


Going to say that a random real estate blog is probably not the best place to go for investment advice.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on December 03, 2018, 03:02:09 PM
You guys need make the distinction that this is for investment properties only.
Family homes are priceless, so grading a purchase only on its investment quality is appropriate.

While a family home is a big investment, we should only focus on the investment side, because there's no way to price priceless.

In this case, Irvine dropped 30%, and IHO's experience of an only 10-15% drop in his search for a family home should not be considered.

Generally, areas that have high prices and good resilience are bad as investments.  You want areas that have big ranges so that you can pick up super cheap and resale fast.  You can't really do that in places like Irvine.

I can’t tell you how many posts I’ve seen on TI asking if (fill in the blank) would be a good an investment.


Going to say that a random real estate blog is probably not the best place to go for investment advice.

But there were many people that responded to the question. Which might indicate they were drinking the same koolaide and believe the same thing.  ;)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 03, 2018, 03:41:20 PM
Although I'm confused because you are saying that "Irvine fared better in 2008" but originally you said it was "revisionist history". :)

Irvine did fare better than other areas in OC. What I was saying was revisionist was this idea that it only fell by 10-15%, when the raw numbers dispute that.
This is what you wrote:

It's revisionist history to say that Irvine was safer, and is really a form of cognitive dissonance for those that want to convince themselves that prices can't go down.  If you really want safety, there are other places that will protect your "investment" much better.  Try CDM, NB, LB, etc.  Areas with long time owners and old money will weather the storm best. 

I posted the Trulia data that shows that CDM, NB, LB, etc actually had larger drops using your high/low method and even using a rolling average they still dropped more so I don't think it's revisionist... raw numbers seem to side with Irvine.

Quote
It's been repeated so many times that I have seen new/infrequent posters repeat it as if it were fact.  They don't have the analysis skills or data to know any differently, so they take what is consensus here as the truth about Irvine.

Really? I know that in my own posts I state that it was in the specific housing I was looking at. For others, I think they've tempered it with their own experience. I don't feel anyone has said Irvine housing as a whole only dropped 10 or 15%. You and meccos have to start posting links to back up these assertions.

Quote
The fact is a first time buyer would still have been much better off waiting until 2010-11 to buy than suffering that massive 30% drop in 2008.

This is just like saying prices only dropped 10-15% as a whole. You can't know this as a fact. There are many people who bought in 2008 and actually better off because they couldn't find the same houses in 2010-11. Cheaper houses aren't always the good ones.

As I've said many times before, the numbers of homes you could buy for a 30% discount was few and far between. Your measurement of drop is extreme, you're taking the highest high and the lowest low, but you are not accounting for how much of that inventory was purchasable by the average buyer. If you have the data that shows the volume of homes you could buy at a 30%, I think it will show a different story. That's why I said that you have to use a reasonable time frame to calculate what a true drop was. Using your method, can I really say Newport Beach homes dropped almost 50%? No, because I know that would be a very small percentage of what actually was bought at a discount.

I know if I respond to each of these points it's going to devolve into a nitpicky argument. 

If safety is what you want, I stand by my statement that the "old money" areas of NB, CDM, LB will outperform Irvine.  If you want to compare Irvine to other upper middle class areas, it performed similarly.  If you want to compare it to working class / entry level areas, it performed much better.  My main point is to dispel the belief that Irvine is "safer" than everywhere else.  A 30% drop is not safe by any sane standard of prudent risk management.

Remember, 30% was the median drop which means half of houses did worse!!!
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: paperboyNC on December 03, 2018, 03:58:06 PM
Remember, 30% was the median drop which means half of houses did worse!!!

That's not how a median works. For example:

2006 sales:
Home A $3.5m
Home B $900k
Home C $750k
Home D $500k
Home E $300k

Median = $750k

2011 sales:
Home A: no sale
Home B: $800k
Home C: $720k
Home D: $480k
Home E: $330k
Home F: $300k

2011 Median: $480k

OMG!! The Median price fell 36% that means half the homeowners lost more than 36%!!

Oh wait - no one lost anything close to 36%, just fewer high price homes changed hands.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 04:05:17 PM

I know if I respond to each of these points it's going to devolve into a nitpicky argument. 

If safety is what you want, I stand by my statement that the "old money" areas of NB, CDM, LB will outperform Irvine.  If you want to compare Irvine to other upper middle class areas, it performed similarly.  If you want to compare it to working class / entry level areas, it performed much better.  My main point is to dispel the belief that Irvine is "safer" than everywhere else.  A 30% drop is not safe by any sane standard of prudent risk management.

Remember, 30% was the median drop which means half of houses did worse!!!

Except NB, CDM, and LB didn't perform better than Irvine in the last downturn.   They did worse...that's not to say that they will do worse in the future but they did worse in 2008.

NB:  About $800K in 2003...top at $1.6 million in 2007...bottom at $925K in 2009.  That's about 43% from the top...up 15.6% from 2003.  (now at $1.92 mil)
LB:  About $800K in 2003...top at $1.6 in 2007...bottom at $900K in 2009.  That's about 45% and 12.5% from 2003.  (now at $1.825 mil)
Irvine:  About $425K in 2003...top at $700K in 2007...bottom at $550K in 2009.  That's about 21% from the top...up 29% from 2003.  ($840K now)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Newport_Beach-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Laguna_Beach-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

If you take the same money and invested in Irvine...it's pretty comparable to LB and NB.

NB:  240% return from 2003
LB:  228% return
Irvine:  198% return (but you could have 1.77 houses in Irvine for the same amount of investment in NB and LB)

Also...it's weird that you are comparing NB and CDM with Irvine...that's like saying Ferraris are better buys than Porsches.  That may be true but there is a thing about entry points and investment costs.   I mean Berkshire Hathaway is a great stock to own but the entry point is a little high for most people.

Also...30% drop is really deceiving because you are talking 30% from the top...that top was close to 200% from the starting point.  As noted above, you are still like 30% up from the price before the boom.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 04:26:09 PM
Just to compare:

Tustin:  About 350K in 2003...high of about 660K in 2006...and about $420K in 2009.   That's a drop of 36% from the top...up 20% from 2003. 
Aliso:  About 350 K in 2003...high of about 550K in 2006...and about $370K in 2012.  Drop of 37% from the top...up 5% from 2003.
Mission:  About 400K in 2003...high of about 700K in 2006...and about $420K in 2011.  Drop of 40% from the top...up 5% from 2003
Lake Forest:  About 330K in 2003...high of about 600K in 2006...and about $350 in 2009/2012. Drop of about 41% from the top and 6% from 2003.
         
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Tustin-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Aliso_Viejo-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Mission_Viejo-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Lake_Forest-California/market-trends/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 05:14:05 PM
For further away comparisons:

Brea:  About $385K in 2003...topped at about $690K in 2006...bottom at about $460K in 2012.  33% drop from top about 19% from 2003.
Fullerton:  About 300K in 2003...topped at about $590K in 2007...bottom at about $360K in 2012.  39% from top...20% gain from 2003.
Diamond Bar:  About $350K in 2003...topped at about $575K in 2008...bottom at about $410 in 2012.  Drop of 29% from the top..up about 14% from 2003.
Chino Hills:  About $330K in 2003...topped at about $600K in 2008...bottom at about $400K in 2012.  Drop of 33% from the top...up 21% from 2003.
Eastvale:  About $300K in 2003...topped at about $630K in 2006...bottom at about $330 in 2012.  Drop of 46% from the top...up 10% from 2003.

Out of state:

Scottsdale:  About $280K in 2003...topped at about $450K in 2008...bottom at $280K in 2012.  Drop of 37% from the top...no gain from 2003.
Las Vegas:  About $170K in 2003...topped at $300K in 2007...low of $110K in 2011/2012.  Drop of 63% from the top...loss of 42% from 2003. 
Alpharetta:  About $250K in 2003....ranged between $250K to $300K between 2009 to 2014...from no gain to 20%

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Fullerton-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Brea-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Diamond_Bar-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Chino_Hills-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Eastvale-California/market-trends/

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Scottsdale-Arizona/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Las_Vegas-Nevada/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Alpharetta-Georgia/market-trends/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 05:22:44 PM
Investment wise...you are better off with places like:

Moreno Valley:  About $180K in 2003...topped at about $380K in 2007 (bottomed at about $140K in 2009)
Riverside: About $220K in 2003...topped at $430K in 2007 (but then $180K in 2009). 
Bakersfield:  ABout $140K in 2003...topped at $300K in 2007 (but then to about $130K in 2010-2011)
Stockton:  About $185K in 2002/2003..topped at about $380K in 2007 (then $120K in 2010-2011)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Riverside-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Bakersfield-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Stockton-California/market-trends/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 03, 2018, 05:25:06 PM
What's the point of comparing Irvine to Las Vegas / Scottsdale ?

Should be looking at bay area cities. If Irvine is going to be significantly higher in the future, the best bet would be Irvine becoming silicon valley south. Not Vegas or Scottsdale.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 03, 2018, 05:31:12 PM
I've always found it funny when previous post said Irvine should not be compared to Newport or Laguna. But turns around and compare Irvine to Tustin/Lake Forest. Has there ever been a time that Irvine was worse than Tustin/LF ? If not what does Irvine being better than Tustin and LF prove now?

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 05:47:38 PM
What's the point of comparing Irvine to Las Vegas / Scottsdale ?

Should be looking at bay area cities. If Irvine is going to be significantly higher in the future, the best bet would be Irvine becoming silicon valley south. Not Vegas or Scottsdale.

Vegas and Scottsdale were the two major areas where people went to because California/OC got too expensive.  It's not comparison per se but rather to show what true up and down looks like in a market.   California housing market has very few equivalents...even Panda's favorite area is hard to compare. 

BA cities are also hard to compare with because those cities have been around a lot longer than Irvine.  The boom time for them was the 1980s/1990s.  I would expect Irvine to look like BA in about 10 years when all the new homes have built out.  Even newer cities had matured by 2003. 

Most of the Silicon Valley cities did not suffer an appreciable drop even during the 2008 downturn.  But they didn't really gain during the boom either. 

Sunnyvale:  About $550K in 2003...topped at about $750K...bottom at about $550K in 2012.  Down about 27% from the top..about even with 2003.
Mountain View:  About $500K in 2003...topped at about $800K...bottom at about $650K in 2011.  Down about 18% from top...up about 30% from 2003.
Palo Alto:  About $800K in 2003...topped at about $1.15 mil...bottom at about $850K in 2010.  Down about 30% from the top and up about 8% from 2003

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Milpitas-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Mountain_View-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Palo_Alto-California/market-trends/

Areas outside of SV had similar trends as Southern California

Pleasanton:  $550K in 2003...top at about $800K in 2008...bottomed at about $650K in 2012.   Down 19% from top..up 18% from 2003.
Danville:  About $700K in 2003...top at about $1 million in 2008...bottom at about $750K in 2012.  Down 25% from the top...up about 8% from 2003
San Ramon:  About $550K in 2003..top at about $900K in 2006..bottom at about $600K in 2012.  Down about 33% from top..up about 10% from 2003.
Milpitas:  About $450K in 2003...top at about $650K in 2007..bottom at about $425K in 2011.  Down about 35% from the top...about 5% loss from 2003.

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Pleasanton-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/San_Ramon-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Danville-California/market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Milpitas-California/market-trends/


Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 05:57:39 PM
I've always found it funny when previous post said Irvine should not be compared to Newport or Laguna. But turns around and compare Irvine to Tustin/Lake Forest. Has there ever been a time that Irvine was worse than Tustin/LF ? If not what does Irvine being better than Tustin and LF prove now?

You can't really compare Newport or LB with Irvine because of a number of reasons.  House size and proximity to ocean/beach are the two biggest differences.  You also can't compare them because NB and LB are basically mature markets with next to no new builds while Irvine boomed in the last 10-15 years.   

Irvine, Tustin, LF, Mission, and AV were pretty similar up until about 2003-2004.  Again, LF, Mission, and AV boomed mostly in the 1980s and 1990s.  Irvine and Tustin just boomed...in about 10-15 years Irvine will be way ahead of LF, Mission, and AV.

Go look at the pricing in 2003.  Mission and Irvine were pretty comparable at low $400K.  LF, Aliso, and Tustin were pretty comparable at about mid-$300K. 

Median sales price now:

Irvine:  $840K
Mission:  $730K
Lake Forest:  $675
Tustin:  $670K
Aliso:  $600K

Adding

Laguna Hills:  About $350K in 2003...about $700K now.  (bottomed at about 350K in 2009)
Laguna Niguel:  About $480K in 2003...about $800K now (bottomed at about 500K in 2012)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Laguna_Niguel-California/market-trends/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 03, 2018, 08:11:31 PM
And if you have to know, I probably looked at close to over 700 homes on Redfin, of that, over 100 of those I went to via open house or our realtor Scott Gunther. That's not counting all the new homes we looked at either.

Its truly amazing that data suggest homes dropped 30% but ALL the 700 homes you looked at only dropped 10-15%.
Do you play the lotto?  If not, you should because I think the chances of this happening is likely similar to you winning the lotto.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 03, 2018, 08:30:12 PM
Remember, 30% was the median drop which means half of houses did worse!!!

That's not how a median works. For example:

2006 sales:
Home A $3.5m
Home B $900k
Home C $750k
Home D $500k
Home E $300k

Median = $750k

2011 sales:
Home A: no sale
Home B: $800k
Home C: $720k
Home D: $480k
Home E: $330k
Home F: $300k

2011 Median: $480k

OMG!! The Median price fell 36% that means half the homeowners lost more than 36%!!

Oh wait - no one lost anything close to 36%, just fewer high price homes changed hands.

Your example only works when the sample size is small.  As the sample size becomes large, your argument falls apart as the median becomes the mean and the variability of sales in prices ranges decreases, in which case LiarLoan statement becomes completely true. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 03, 2018, 08:43:19 PM
And if you have to know, I probably looked at close to over 700 homes on Redfin, of that, over 100 of those I went to via open house or our realtor Scott Gunther. That's not counting all the new homes we looked at either.

Its truly amazing that data suggest homes dropped 30% but ALL the 700 homes you looked at only dropped 10-15%.
Do you play the lotto?  If not, you should because I think the chances of this happening is likely similar to you winning the lotto.

Actually...data says the drop was about 20%

And i would guess that the 3 and 4 bedrooms houses fell less than the median.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 03, 2018, 09:10:26 PM
Actually...data says the drop was about 20%

And i would guess that the 3 and 4 bedrooms houses fell less than the median.

Please show us data you are referring to.  Atleast you are not claiming 10-15% drop anymore.  BTW, Trulia says 3 beds drop about 26% and 4 beds drop more than 30%. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 03, 2018, 09:46:52 PM
And if you have to know, I probably looked at close to over 700 homes on Redfin, of that, over 100 of those I went to via open house or our realtor Scott Gunther. That's not counting all the new homes we looked at either.

Its truly amazing that data suggest homes dropped 30% but ALL the 700 homes you looked at only dropped 10-15%.
Do you play the lotto?  If not, you should because I think the chances of this happening is likely similar to you winning the lotto.

You’re reading both the data and my posts wrong.

Those 700 homes were on Redfin and either they didn’t fit my criteria, were too expensive, etc.

Of the 100+ I did look at, the ones I really had interest in were only 10-15% off peak. Some were more but when seen in person were not a good location or not in very good condition. I remember a QH home where they had ripped out the entire kitchen and still wanted quite a bit for it.

As for a 30% “drop”, I already explained the time frame and inventory type flaw in that but you like to stick with that data point because it make you look like you are backed by data. If LiarLoan is going to contend that you can’t stick to a previous crash to demonstrate Irvine’s resiliency, how can you use one data point in 2012 as the end all be all of the drop? You have to average all those lows to get a realistic market condition because most people don’t complete a purchase from search to close of escrow in a month.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 03, 2018, 11:13:06 PM
If LiarLoan is going to contend that you can’t stick to a previous crash to demonstrate Irvine’s resiliency, how can you use one data point in 2012 as the end all be all of the drop?

This is how crashes are measured across all asset classes.  You start at the peak price and measure to the trough. Moving averages are for the purpose of smoothing trends, not for measuring peak to trough price declines.

Your push for novel new ways of measuring the crash in Irvine, to make it look better than it actually was, is a sure sign of cognitive dissonance.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 07:31:28 AM
Actually...data says the drop was about 20%

And i would guess that the 3 and 4 bedrooms houses fell less than the median.

Please show us data you are referring to.  Atleast you are not claiming 10-15% drop anymore.  BTW, Trulia says 3 beds drop about 26% and 4 beds drop more than 30%.

I just showed you the data and calculations.  Peak at abt $700k and bottom at abt $550k.  That is about 21%. 3 bed and 4 bd followed pretty similar trends as the median

I have never claim 10 o 15% but again...why are are so stuck on 30%.   I just showed you that LB and Newport were down way more than 30% and Irvine still had like 25% appreciation from preboom prices.

What exactly is your point?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 07:38:20 AM
If LiarLoan is going to contend that you can’t stick to a previous crash to demonstrate Irvine’s resiliency, how can you use one data point in 2012 as the end all be all of the drop?

This is how crashes are measured across all asset classes.  You start at the peak price and measure to the trough. Moving averages are for the purpose of smoothing trends, not for measuring peak to trough price declines.

Your push for novel new ways of measuring the crash in Irvine, to make it look better than it actually was, is a sure sign of cognitive dissonance.

What exactly is your point? Are you just arguing about the exact rate of fall? 

What about your points re NB and LB being better than Irvine?

Data clearly shows that Irvine did better than pretty much all OC comps in the last crash both in peak to trough drop and appreciation from preboom prices.  What exactly are you advocating?

I feel like you are just arguing to justify some disdain toward Irvine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 04, 2018, 07:53:11 AM
If LiarLoan is going to contend that you can’t stick to a previous crash to demonstrate Irvine’s resiliency, how can you use one data point in 2012 as the end all be all of the drop?

This is how crashes are measured across all asset classes.  You start at the peak price and measure to the trough. Moving averages are for the purpose of smoothing trends, not for measuring peak to trough price declines.

Your push for novel new ways of measuring the crash in Irvine, to make it look better than it actually was, is a sure sign of cognitive dissonance.

That's not a new or novel way... but maybe we are talking wrong terms. From a buyer's point of view, peak to trough is just a reference, but by no means is that the actual discount one can get. As Irvinecommuter has said, in order to realize that drop, a buyer has to time it perfectly and has to find the exact same house at the high and the low. For most people, that's not going to happen. So maybe your definition of a crash doesn't line up with what I think it is.

In order to present a a more realistic scenario, you have to use a rolling average because that's the environment most buyers realized during the crash.

But let's get back to this:

Do you agree Irvine prices were more resilient than surrounding cities? Originally you did not, but after seeing the numbers, I think you may have capitulated a bit.

While meccos may disagree that's not important in the current slowdown, like IC, I think it's a major factor... even if you're just investing.

And I don't think I'm making Irvine look better than it actually was... it is better. Even with a 28% drop, look at IC's numbers, across the board, whether using peak-to-trough or rolling average, Irvine performed better than surrounding cities (as you admitted). That comparison is vitally important over the percentage. And that's just measuring the percentage of the drop, if you were to add the time element to that data, you would see that Irvine was slower to drop and faster to recover.

Repeatedly saying I have cognitive dissonance doesn't change those data points, it's a cool term to use on a message board (much like strawman, revisionist history, false equivalency, etc) but I think I've been fairly consistent in my stance in regards to Irvine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 04, 2018, 08:00:21 AM
I just showed you the data and calculations.  Peak at abt $700k and bottom at abt $550k.  That is about 21%. 3 bed and 4 bd followed pretty similar trends as the median

I have never claim 10 o 15% but again...why are are so stuck on 30%.   I just showed you that LB and Newport were down way more than 30% and Irvine still had like 25% appreciation from preboom prices.

What exactly is your point?

If you actually used the numbers from the very site you linked, then you would realize peak was about 715K and bottom was about 515K.  If you have to fudge numbers (make the peak prices lower and the bottom higher) to make your point, then you lose credibility.  If you look at the 3bed the % drop is similar, whereas the 4bed drop was greater than 30%.    My point is use real data, dont fudge.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 04, 2018, 08:08:42 AM
Those 700 homes were on Redfin and either they didn’t fit my criteria, were too expensive, etc.

Of the 100+ I did look at, the ones I really had interest in were only 10-15% off peak. Some were more but when seen in person were not a good location or not in very good condition. I remember a QH home where they had ripped out the entire kitchen and still wanted quite a bit for it.

As for a 30% “drop”, I already explained the time frame and inventory type flaw in that but you like to stick with that data point because it make you look like you are backed by data. If LiarLoan is going to contend that you can’t stick to a previous crash to demonstrate Irvine’s resiliency, how can you use one data point in 2012 as the end all be all of the drop? You have to average all those lows to get a realistic market condition because most people don’t complete a purchase from search to close of escrow in a month.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average

Ah, so you looked at 700 homes on redfin, 100 homes in person, but ONLY the ones you were interested in had 10-15% drop.  Just two questions for you.  Exactly how many homes were you interested in of the 700 you viewed?  Also, what was the range of price drop for homes you were not interested in?

Also, please please please refer to LiarLoans post about peak to trough prices.  You cant pick time frames yourself.  By looking at peak to trough prices, the time frame is literally built in to the peak of price to trough of price.  Thus your argument about picking one data point really a silly argument, because the trough of prices by definition has to be one data point.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 08:15:56 AM
I just showed you the data and calculations.  Peak at abt $700k and bottom at abt $550k.  That is about 21%. 3 bed and 4 bd followed pretty similar trends as the median

I have never claim 10 o 15% but again...why are are so stuck on 30%.   I just showed you that LB and Newport were down way more than 30% and Irvine still had like 25% appreciation from preboom prices.

What exactly is your point?

If you actually used the numbers from the very site you linked, then you would realize peak was about 715K and bottom was about 515K.  If you have to fudge numbers (make the peak prices lower and the bottom higher) to make your point, then you lose credibility.  If you look at the 3bed the % drop is similar, whereas the 4bed drop was greater than 30%.    My point is use real data, dont fudge.

I dont use absolute top vs absolute bottom...that would be SSS.  Quarterly numbers are skeweed...annual numbers are much better.  Using extreme is misleading.   If you want to do that...the numbers for other cities are worse.

Even taking your numbers...the drop is 28%.  Does 21% vs 28% vs 30% make that much difference? What about the comps versus other cities in the areas?

So this is a mathematical argument?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 04, 2018, 09:19:54 AM
Those 700 homes were on Redfin and either they didn’t fit my criteria, were too expensive, etc.

Of the 100+ I did look at, the ones I really had interest in were only 10-15% off peak. Some were more but when seen in person were not a good location or not in very good condition. I remember a QH home where they had ripped out the entire kitchen and still wanted quite a bit for it.

As for a 30% “drop”, I already explained the time frame and inventory type flaw in that but you like to stick with that data point because it make you look like you are backed by data. If LiarLoan is going to contend that you can’t stick to a previous crash to demonstrate Irvine’s resiliency, how can you use one data point in 2012 as the end all be all of the drop? You have to average all those lows to get a realistic market condition because most people don’t complete a purchase from search to close of escrow in a month.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average

Ah, so you looked at 700 homes on redfin, 100 homes in person, but ONLY the ones you were interested in had 10-15% drop.  Just two questions for you.

Exactly how many homes were you interested in of the 700 you viewed?
It's hard to answer this because I'm not sure what your definition of "interest" vs mine is. But of those 100, I think about 80% were within the 10-15% off range, only a few were 20% off. Two I distinctly remember were about 20% off because we put offers in on them. And just remember, this is from a time frame from 2009 to 2013, so that "discount" would fluctuate (again, why you have to use a rolling time frame).
Quote
Also, what was the range of price drop for homes you were not interested in?
Some were only 5% off so not a huge discount so we didn't even consider. There were maybe a few that were over 20%, but as I've said, they were in a bad condition or a bad location. For the most part, most of the homes we looked at were only 10-15% off. I'm trying to remember, but even in that 700 number, I could tell you that many were not discounted beyond 20%. You may find that amazing but again, you have to remember the time frame, this is over a period of 5 years.

I know you are trying to corner me into some position that belies your "data" but it is what it is. I think my 10-15% off is closer to the rolling average of 20% that I calculated so while you want to make some incredible comparison to 30% (really 28% from peak to trough), my experience is actually closer to reality than you think your data point says.

Quote
Also, please please please refer to LiarLoans post about peak to trough prices.  You cant pick time frames yourself.  By looking at peak to trough prices, the time frame is literally built in to the peak of price to trough of price.  Thus your argument about picking one data point really a silly argument, because the trough of prices by definition has to be one data point.

Again, you're not getting it. While you can use peak-to-trough as a reference point, that's not the actual market conditions mostly everyone experiences. For everyone who bought in June 2012 (I think that's where the trough was), do you think they all got a 28% discount?

Put it this way, why did you harp on the YOY numbers? Because it smoothes out seasonality right? I apologize I didn't understand what you were saying when you brought that up before but I was thinking about annual cycles, not YOY comparison. Same concept applies here, you have to smooth out the ups and downs to get the real picture. Irvinecommuter just said it above, the extremes don't tell you what really happened.

You can continue to argue semantics, but the point remains, Irvine outperformed neighboring cities when it comes to price stability. You said that was not true before, now that you see the data, do you still believe that?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 10:16:40 AM
I have to add one more piece of the puzzle to this analysis...foreclosures/short sales.   There were not nearly as many foreclosures in Irvine as other areas in OC...the ones that got in trouble mostly went to short sale because the price was still better than what the banks could get at auction.  So, that may have reduce the overall median price but not shown up for a buyer like IHO because most short sales are not really publicized. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 04, 2018, 02:44:28 PM
I've always found it funny when previous post said Irvine should not be compared to Newport or Laguna. But turns around and compare Irvine to Tustin/Lake Forest. Has there ever been a time that Irvine was worse than Tustin/LF ? If not what does Irvine being better than Tustin and LF prove now?

You can't really compare Newport or LB with Irvine because of a number of reasons.  House size and proximity to ocean/beach are the two biggest differences.  You also can't compare them because NB and LB are basically mature markets with next to no new builds while Irvine boomed in the last 10-15 years.   

Irvine, Tustin, LF, Mission, and AV were pretty similar up until about 2003-2004.  Again, LF, Mission, and AV boomed mostly in the 1980s and 1990s.  Irvine and Tustin just boomed...in about 10-15 years Irvine will be way ahead of LF, Mission, and AV.

Go look at the pricing in 2003.  Mission and Irvine were pretty comparable at low $400K.  LF, Aliso, and Tustin were pretty comparable at about mid-$300K. 

Median sales price now:

Irvine:  $840K
Mission:  $730K
Lake Forest:  $675
Tustin:  $670K
Aliso:  $600K

Adding

Laguna Hills:  About $350K in 2003...about $700K now.  (bottomed at about 350K in 2009)
Laguna Niguel:  About $480K in 2003...about $800K now (bottomed at about 500K in 2012)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Laguna_Niguel-California/market-trends/

I agree that using Newport or Laguna Beach as comparison would be almost pointless. But using Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, and Mission Viejo are just as pointless.
These are 90% white cities with very little FCB presence. Mission Viejo is a retirement town with over 10 years resident median age than Irvine.

Using other desirable cities with 40% + Asian population like Irvine would provide a better comparison to why there's big downward price resistance. Using your same format and same Trulia data and here's what I got.

Irvine:  About $425K in 2003...top at $700K in 2007...bottom at $550K in 2009.  That's about 21% from the top...up 29% from 2003.  ($840K now)

San Gabriel About $350K in 2003...top at $630K in 2007...bottom at $490K in 2009.  That's about 22% from the top...up 28% from 2003.  ($785K now)

Arcadia:  About $465K in 2003...top at $750K in 2007...bottom at $585K in 2009.  That's about 22% from the top...up 26% from 2003.  ($1070K now)

Monterey Park:  About $300K in 2003...top at $535K in 2007...bottom at $410K in 2009.  That's about 23% from the top...up 36% from 2003.  ($640K now)

San Marino:  About $850K in 2003...NOT top at $1350K in 2007... even higher at $1450K in 2009.  Never had a bottom and now sits at 2130K.



Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 04, 2018, 06:31:05 PM
Here's Irvine compared to another 3 desirable cities with 40% + Asian population

Irvine:  About $425K in 2003...top at $700K in 2007...bottom at $550K in 2009.  That's about 21% from the top...up 29% from 2003.  ($840K now)

Walnut:  About $390K in 2003...top at $650K in 2007...bottom at $530K in 2009.  That's about 19% from the top...up 36% from 2003.  ($710K now)

Diamond Bar:  About $330K in 2003...top at $575K in 2007...bottom at $450K in 2009.  That's about 23% from the top...up 36% from 2003.  ($655K now)

Alhambra:  About $285K in 2003...top at $520K in 2007...bottom at $430K in 2009.  That's about 17% from the top...up 49% from 2003.  ($644K now)


Irvine performs almost exactly the same as every other city with 40%+ Asian population. Nothing extraordinary....

I know many on this board think Irvine has a special sauce keeping prices resilient but it's really just FCBs.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on December 04, 2018, 06:33:13 PM
Here's Irvine compared to another 3 desirable cities with 40% + Asian population

Irvine:  About $425K in 2003...top at $700K in 2007...bottom at $550K in 2009.  That's about 21% from the top...up 29% from 2003.  ($840K now)

Walnut:  About $390K in 2003...top at $650K in 2007...bottom at $530K in 2009.  That's about 19% from the top...up 36% from 2003.  ($710K now)

Diamond Bar:  About $330K in 2003...top at $575K in 2007...bottom at $450K in 2009.  That's about 23% from the top...up 36% from 2003.  ($655K now)

Alhambra:  About $285K in 2003...top at $520K in 2007...bottom at $430K in 2009.  That's about 17% from the top...up 49% from 2003.  ($644K now)


Irvine performs almost exactly the same as every other city with 40%+ Asian population. Nothing extraordinary....

I know many on this board think Irvine has a special sauce keeping prices resilient but it's really just FCBs.

* Add the MR to Irvine. The other cities that you mention don’t have it. (I believe)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 07:55:13 PM
Here's Irvine compared to another 3 desirable cities with 40% + Asian population

Irvine:  About $425K in 2003...top at $700K in 2007...bottom at $550K in 2009.  That's about 21% from the top...up 29% from 2003.  ($840K now)

Walnut:  About $390K in 2003...top at $650K in 2007...bottom at $530K in 2009.  That's about 19% from the top...up 36% from 2003.  ($710K now)

Diamond Bar:  About $330K in 2003...top at $575K in 2007...bottom at $450K in 2009.  That's about 23% from the top...up 36% from 2003.  ($655K now)

Alhambra:  About $285K in 2003...top at $520K in 2007...bottom at $430K in 2009.  That's about 17% from the top...up 49% from 2003.  ($644K now)


Irvine performs almost exactly the same as every other city with 40%+ Asian population. Nothing extraordinary....

I know many on this board think Irvine has a special sauce keeping prices resilient but it's r
eally just FCBs.


Your numbers are off

DB' bottom was about $415k in 2011/2012

Alhambra bottomed at abt $400k in 2011/2012


Again...you are comparing matured real estate areas with a developing area.  Mature areas are less likely to suffer downs because there is already a stable base.

Also...did you notice the difference in current pricing?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 04, 2018, 08:26:40 PM

Your numbers are off

DB' bottom was about $415k in 2011/2012

Alhambra bottomed at abt $400k in 2011/2012


Again...you are comparing matured real estate areas with a developing area.  Mature areas are less likely to suffer downs because there is already a stable base.

Also...did you notice the difference in current pricing?

I was following what Irvinecommuter did, using 2009 to use as bottom. If you want to use the absolute bottom, Irvine is 515k not the 550k he used.

Other mature area around Irvine suffered a lot of downs. That's not the main difference. The main difference is amount of FCBs.

Current pricing, Irvine is in the middle of the pack. Irvine performed just like other desirable cities with 40% + Asian population.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 09:52:34 PM

Your numbers are off

DB' bottom was about $415k in 2011/2012

Alhambra bottomed at abt $400k in 2011/2012


Again...you are comparing matured real estate areas with a developing area.  Mature areas are less likely to suffer downs because there is already a stable base.

Also...did you notice the difference in current pricing?

I was following what Irvinecommuter did, using 2009 to use as bottom. If you want to use the absolute bottom, Irvine is 515k not the 550k he used.

Other mature area around Irvine suffered a lot of downs. That's not the main difference. The main difference is amount of FCBs.

Current pricing, Irvine is in the middle of the pack. Irvine performed just like other desirable cities with 40% + Asian population.

Irvine didnt have 40+% Asian until after the drop.  FCB money came in 2010 and after.

Irvine had a few month at $515 to 526..but it was about $550 most of the time

DB had two separate trough of about a year each where it was at about $410k

How is Irvine middle of the pack price wise currently?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 04, 2018, 09:52:51 PM

Your numbers are off

DB' bottom was about $415k in 2011/2012

Alhambra bottomed at abt $400k in 2011/2012


Again...you are comparing matured real estate areas with a developing area.  Mature areas are less likely to suffer downs because there is already a stable base.

Also...did you notice the difference in current pricing?

I was following what Irvinecommuter did, using 2009 to use as bottom. If you want to use the absolute bottom, Irvine is 515k not the 550k he used.

Other mature area around Irvine suffered a lot of downs. That's not the main difference. The main difference is amount of FCBs.

Current pricing, Irvine is in the middle of the pack. Irvine performed just like other desirable cities with 40% + Asian population.

Exactly!  The hypocrisy is unreal.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 09:58:10 PM

Your numbers are off

DB' bottom was about $415k in 2011/2012

Alhambra bottomed at abt $400k in 2011/2012


Again...you are comparing matured real estate areas with a developing area.  Mature areas are less likely to suffer downs because there is already a stable base.

Also...did you notice the difference in current pricing?

I was following what Irvinecommuter did, using 2009 to use as bottom. If you want to use the absolute bottom, Irvine is 515k not the 550k he used.

Other mature area around Irvine suffered a lot of downs. That's not the main difference. The main difference is amount of FCBs.

Current pricing, Irvine is in the middle of the pack. Irvine performed just like other desirable cities with 40% + Asian population.

Exactly!  The hypocrisy is unreal.

What hypocrisy? No one is disputing that FCBs had an effect on Irvine.  Question is why Irvine...and Irvine has captured most of the higher end FCB buyers as well.

Irvine is already out performing DB, Walnut, Cerritos and Alhambra price wise.   It should match Arcadia once it is fully built out

I ask again..what exactly is your point.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 04, 2018, 10:16:23 PM

Irvine didnt have 40+% Asian until after the drop.  FCB money came in 2010 and after.

This is absolutely false.

Please fact check your claims. Let's have a honest discussion based on facts.

Irvine already had 30% Asians in 2000. Reached 40% before prices hit bottom. FCB money came in long before 2010.



How is Irvine middle of the pack price wise currently?

Out of the 8 cities posted, Irvine is the 5th highest in % gained since last peak.
Out of the 8 cities posted, Irvine is the 4th highest in price per Sqft.
How is that not middle of the pack?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on December 05, 2018, 04:37:06 AM
Here's Irvine compared to another 3 desirable cities with 40% + Asian population

Irvine:  About $425K in 2003...top at $700K in 2007...bottom at $550K in 2009.  That's about 21% from the top...up 29% from 2003.  ($840K now)

Walnut:  About $390K in 2003...top at $650K in 2007...bottom at $530K in 2009.  That's about 19% from the top...up 36% from 2003.  ($710K now)

Diamond Bar:  About $330K in 2003...top at $575K in 2007...bottom at $450K in 2009.  That's about 23% from the top...up 36% from 2003.  ($655K now)

Alhambra:  About $285K in 2003...top at $520K in 2007...bottom at $430K in 2009.  That's about 17% from the top...up 49% from 2003.  ($644K now)


Irvine performs almost exactly the same as every other city with 40%+ Asian population. Nothing extraordinary....

I know many on this board think Irvine has a special sauce keeping prices resilient but it's really just FCBs.

Only way to prove it if you knew exactly what the contribution of Asian FCBs was to each of these neighborhoods - in absence of that , this is anecdotal as well .

Toll brothers earnings yesterday were pretty stark - most of their disappointment came from SoCal it seems. 

That being said , toll stock actually ended up outperforming the market , shows you it’s all about what news is priced in already . Lower rates should start to help home builders next year , at least on the margin .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 05, 2018, 07:40:06 AM
Irvine performs almost exactly the same as every other city with 40%+ Asian population. Nothing extraordinary....

I know many on this board think Irvine has a special sauce keeping prices resilient but it's really just FCBs.

It's more than FCBs. I'd much rather live in central/south OC than where Walnut/Diamond Bar/Alhambra are located (apologies to my friends who live in those cities). What university is within those city boundaries?

I've listed a number of reasons why Irvine is has the "special sauce". Of those, I think location, access to jobs and new housing stock are standouts. I don't know if those other cities have new home tracts, but I do think that FCBs have a preference for new homes because they can pick and choose (especially FCBs who are influenced by Feng Shui).

I also want to ask, you are singling out Asians, but I think those cities have mostly Chinese Asians... do the cities you mention also have a large populate of Middle Easterners (including Israelis), Indians, Koreans and Japanese?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 09:25:17 AM

Irvine didnt have 40+% Asian until after the drop.  FCB money came in 2010 and after.

This is absolutely false.

Please fact check your claims. Let's have a honest discussion based on facts.

Irvine already had 30% Asians in 2000. Reached 40% before prices hit bottom. FCB money came in long before 2010.



How is Irvine middle of the pack price wise currently?

Out of the 8 cities posted, Irvine is the 5th highest in % gained since last peak.
Out of the 8 cities posted, Irvine is the 4th highest in price per Sqft.
How is that not middle of the pack?

1)  Drop happened in 2008...Irvine was at about 39% Asian in 2010.

2)  FCB money did not start coming in until 2012/2013.  If you look at the charts...there was basically a double dip in price...once in 2009 and then again in 2011/2012.  Irvine was between $520K to $600K between 2009 and 2012...starting in 2013, prices began to shoot up (going from about $600K to $700K in a year...then peaking at about $870 in mid-2017).    That is the FCB effect.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-30/80-all-new-home-buyers-irvine-are-chinese

https://www.cnbc.com/2013/11/25/chinese-buying-up-california-housing.html

We bought our place in 2/2013 when the prices started going up but not crazy...about a few months later, the prices went through the roof.

3)  What 8 cities are we talking about? 

4)  $/sq. ft is actual a bad measurement because small units have a higher $/sq. ft than larger units.  It scales up to a certain point and then drops.  You really need to compare apples to apples when it comes to $/sq. ft.

Caveat:  Percentage gained is a misleading measurement when you start getting significant differences in median prices.  Going from $500K to $600K is a 20% gain while going from $600K to $700K is a 16.6% gain.  Going from $700K to $800K is a 14.3% gain. 

Irvine: 
From 2003:  $425K to $840K.  198% gain ($415K difference)
Post-boom bottom:  $550K to $840K.  168% gain ($290K difference)
Peak (2006) to Current:  $700K to $840K.  120% gain ($140K difference)

Diamond Bar: 
2003 to Current:  $275K to $654K:  237% gain ($379K difference)
Post-Boom Bottom:  $410/$415K (2011/2012)...current $654K.  159% gain ($245K difference)
Peak to Peak:  $520 (2007) to $654K:  125% gain ($134K difference)

Walnut:  This one is hard to estimate...market fluctuates a ton.
2003 to Current:  $400K to $750K:  185% gain ($350K gain)
Post-Boom Bottom:  $600K to $750K:  125% gain ($150K gain)
Peak to Peak:  $665K to $750K:  113% gain ($85K gain)

Alhambra:
2003 to Current:  $300K to $640K: 213% gain ($340K gain)
Post-Boom Bottom:  $400K to $640K 160% gain ($240K gain)
Peak to Peak:  $510k to $640K.  125% gain ($130K gain)

Cerritos:
2003 to current: $425K to $740K:  174% gain ($315K gain)
Post-Boom Bottom:  $520K to $740K:  142% gain ($220K gain)
Peak to Peak:  $690K to $740K:  107% gain ($50K gain)

Temple City:
2003 to Current: $375 to $800K:  213% gain ($425K gain)
Post-Boom Bottom:  $525 to $800K:  152% gain ($275K gain)
Peak to Peak:  $600K to $800K:  133% gain ($200K gain)

Pasadena:  (Pasadena had a pretty big jump between 2002 and 2003...$300K to $400K)
2003 to Current:  $400K to $800K:  200% gain ($400K difference)
Post-Boom Bottom:  $520K to $800K:  154% gain ($280K difference)
Peak to Peak:  $650K to $800K:  123% gain ($150K gain)

Brea: 
2003 to Current: $400K to $725K:  181% gain ($325K difference)
Post-Boom Bottom:  $475K to $725K: 153% gain ($250K difference)
Peak to Peak:  $690K to $725K;  104% gain ($35K difference)

Fullerton:  (also had a big jump between 2002 and 2003:  300K to 400K)
2003 to Current:  400K to 620K:  155% gain (220K gain)
Post-Boom bottom:  370K to 620K:  167% gain (250K gain)
Peak to Peak:  590K to 620K:  105% gain(30K gain)

Arcadia: (probably the gold standard)
2003 to Current: $525K to $1 million:  190% gain($475K gain)
Post-Boom Bottom:  $680K to $1 million: 148% gain ($320K gain)
Peak to Peak:  $750K to $1 million: 133% gain ($250K gain)

So..if you bought in 2002/2003...you are better off in the older/mature communities as compared to now.  This make sense because Irvine was largely selling new homes..which are often less than resale because resales are "fully loaded".  There is also significantly more supply in Irvine than mature markets because of the new homes.

Irvine also benefited the most from the bottom to current both in percentage and value gained (except Arcadia).  Again...this is amazing when you are comparing new home sales to resales.   

I expect Irvine to become more like Arcadia as Irvine starts filling out and new homes sales decrease.   Irvine has already blow past all of the markets except Arcadia when it comes to median prices. 

Edit:  A few more caveat...Irvine volume is significantly higher than all those other markets.  Irvine is selling 600 to 1000 units monthly while other places are between are between 100 and 200 (Fullerton is 200 to 300). 

Irvine is also significantly larger than those other places.  Irvine is about 66 square miles.  Pasadena/Arcadia/Temple City/Alhambra/Diamond Bar/Walnut combined is about 70 square miles. 

So to get a good comparison..you would probably want to average out all of numbers for those cities (weighted by their relative sales).  I'm too tired to do that now.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 05, 2018, 11:37:20 AM

Only way to prove it if you knew exactly what the contribution of Asian FCBs was to each of these neighborhoods - in absence of that , this is anecdotal as well

I agree it’s anecdotal. But is that really a problem? Most of the members seem to accept IHO’s anecdotal argument “the houses I’ve seen only dropped 10-15%” as a valid point of discussion. My argument is certainly no worse.

I looked at about 30 cities from OC to LA county. About 8 cities have Irvine level downward resilience and all of them happen to have a large Asian population.  You can certainly disagree with the conclusion I came to from looking at the data. But is it just mere coincidence?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 05, 2018, 11:45:15 AM
For the record, I do agree with Kenkoko that cities with larger Asian demographics tend to have resiliency... but I think the premise is in Orange County alone, Irvine presents a more unique situation due to size, location, housing stock, and amenities. I've never said Irvine is more resilient than those other cities posted, only to neighboring cities in Orange County.

But this brings up a good question, what are the numbers for cities with large Asian demographics that are closer to Irvine like Garden Grove and Westminster?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 11:49:37 AM

Only way to prove it if you knew exactly what the contribution of Asian FCBs was to each of these neighborhoods - in absence of that , this is anecdotal as well

I agree it’s anecdotal. But is that really a problem? Most of the members seem to accept IHO’s anecdotal argument “the houses I’ve seen only dropped 10-15%” as a valid point of discussion. My argument is certainly no worse.

I looked at about 30 cities from OC to LA county. About 8 cities have Irvine level downward resilience and all of them happen to have a large Asian population.  You can certainly disagree with the conclusion I came to from looking at the data. But is it just mere coincidence?

Not a coincidence.  FCB did fuel the recovery in SoCal..especially Irvine.  Question is why they chose to buy in Irvine and whether Irvine will remain an attractive area for foreign buyers in the future. 

Personally, I think Irvine will be the premier destination for most FCBs/foreign buyer in the sub $2 million market.  It's never going to be San Marino, BH, Malibu, or NB but it will be a premier destination.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 11:53:10 AM
For the record, I do agree with Kenkoko that cities with larger Asian demographics tend to have resiliency... but I think the premise is in Orange County alone, Irvine presents a more unique situation due to size, location, housing stock, and amenities. I've never said Irvine is more resilient than those other cities posted, only to neighboring cities in Orange County.

But this brings up a good question, what are the numbers for cities with large Asian demographics that are closer to Irvine like Garden Grove and Westminster?

Demographics also means income levels...GG and West are predominately working class areas.  Also, mostly mix of Vietnamese and some Koreans. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 05, 2018, 11:54:34 AM

It's more than FCBs. I'd much rather live in central/south OC than where Walnut/Diamond Bar/Alhambra are located (apologies to my friends who live in those cities). What university is within those city boundaries?

I've listed a number of reasons why Irvine is has the "special sauce". Of those, I think location, access to jobs and new housing stock are standouts. I don't know if those other cities have new home tracts, but I do think that FCBs have a preference for new homes because they can pick and choose (especially FCBs who are influenced by Feng Shui).


IHO, please re-read what I said. I was specifically pointing to what make prices resilient.

I will even agree with you that myself and most people I know would rather live in central south OC than Walnut/Diamond Bar/Alhambra. Irvine has a ton of great amenities like you mentioned but Newport, Laguna, and even Aliso have most of that too. Did not stop prices from falling much further than Irvine.

Alhambra/Diamond Bar/ Walnut has almost none of the great amenities. Having lived in Diamond Bar and Walnut for 4.5 years, I would attest to that. Despite not having awesome Irvine amenities, prices were resilient like Irvine. The only similarities I can find are good schools and large Asian population.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 05, 2018, 12:27:23 PM

1)  Drop happened in 2008...Irvine was at about 39% Asian in 2010.

2)  FCB money did not start coming in until 2012/2013.  If you look at the charts...there was basically a double dip in price...once in 2009 and then again in 2011/2012.  Irvine was between $520K to $600K between 2009 and 2012...starting in 2013, prices began to shoot up (going from about $600K to $700K in a year...then peaking at about $870 in mid-2017).    That is the FCB effect.

Irvinecommuter, seems to me that you are cherry picking your stats. I was merely following the premises you set. At first you used 2009 as bottom so I followed. Then you want to use 2011/2012 as bottom so I followed. Now you want to go back to 2008? If we really want to be accurate, the bottom was 2011 when Irvine reached 515k. I know you want to argue that it only happened briefly but that’s cherry picking and does not benefit the overall discussion. By 2011 bottom, Irvine definitely have over 40% Asian. But why does that matter for the sake of this discussion either way? Are you really going to draw a line in the sand on this? 39% means it’s invalid and 41% means it’s all valid suddenly?

FCB certainly did come in way before 2012/2013. I am from a Taiwanese FCB family and we (over 50 of us) came here long before that. The big spike of CHINESE FCBs did start to come starting 2012 but to claim that FCBs did not come before 2012 is false. Irvine went from having around 5k Asians in 1980 to 20k Asians in 1990 to 45k Asians in 2000 and to 85k Asians in 2010 all before large number of mainland Chinese started coming
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 12:55:08 PM

1)  Drop happened in 2008...Irvine was at about 39% Asian in 2010.

2)  FCB money did not start coming in until 2012/2013.  If you look at the charts...there was basically a double dip in price...once in 2009 and then again in 2011/2012.  Irvine was between $520K to $600K between 2009 and 2012...starting in 2013, prices began to shoot up (going from about $600K to $700K in a year...then peaking at about $870 in mid-2017).    That is the FCB effect.

Irvinecommuter, seems to me that you are cherry picking your stats. I was merely following the premises you set. At first you used 2009 as bottom so I followed. Then you want to use 2011/2012 as bottom so I followed. Now you want to go back to 2008? If we really want to be accurate, the bottom was 2011 when Irvine reached 515k. I know you want to argue that it only happened briefly but that’s cherry picking and does not benefit the overall discussion. By 2011 bottom, Irvine definitely have over 40% Asian. But why does that matter for the sake of this discussion either way? Are you really going to draw a line in the sand on this? 39% means it’s invalid and 41% means it’s all valid suddenly?

FCB certainly did come in way before 2012/2013. I am from a Taiwanese FCB family and we (over 50 of us) came here long before that. The big spike of CHINESE FCBs did start to come starting 2012 but to claim that FCBs did not come before 2012 is false. Irvine went from having around 5k Asians in 1980 to 20k Asians in 1990 to 45k Asians in 2000 and to 85k Asians in 2010 all before large number of mainland Chinese started coming

I am not using 2009 as a bottom...I look at the chart and try to find a trend.  One or two data points do not a trend make.  Irvine had two data points below $550K at the bottom but most of the data points are above $550K so I try to find a good average.  It's not an exact measurement but I try to be consistent.

The resilience is not because of Asian population...most OC/LA markets returned to peak boom prices by 2016/2017.  The difference is the FCB effect, which is likely to skew toward areas with Asian populations because most of the money coming in was from China. 

Of course I know that there was a big Asian population in Irvine before 2010 but my focus was on the 2004-2018 period.  When people talk about FCB effect in Irvine, it is focused on the most recent infusion.   Let's not get into semantics and absolutes. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 05, 2018, 01:01:42 PM

It's more than FCBs. I'd much rather live in central/south OC than where Walnut/Diamond Bar/Alhambra are located (apologies to my friends who live in those cities). What university is within those city boundaries?

I've listed a number of reasons why Irvine is has the "special sauce". Of those, I think location, access to jobs and new housing stock are standouts. I don't know if those other cities have new home tracts, but I do think that FCBs have a preference for new homes because they can pick and choose (especially FCBs who are influenced by Feng Shui).


IHO, please re-read what I said. I was specifically pointing to what make prices resilient.

I will even agree with you that myself and most people I know would rather live in central south OC than Walnut/Diamond Bar/Alhambra. Irvine has a ton of great amenities like you mentioned but Newport, Laguna, and even Aliso have most of that too. Did not stop prices from falling much further than Irvine.

Alhambra/Diamond Bar/ Walnut has almost none of the great amenities. Having lived in Diamond Bar and Walnut for 4.5 years, I would attest to that. Despite not having awesome Irvine amenities, prices were resilient like Irvine. The only similarities I can find are good schools and large Asian population.


This goes back to my post asking about the breakdown of Asian demographics. Those cities have predominately Chinese demographics (I believe), Irvine does not. While there are many, you will see that there are tons of other Asians, Middle Easterners etc. Like GG and Westminster, there are also many Vietnamese in Irvine and if I were to choose the next largest Asian population, i think it's Korean.

So what I'm saying that there is more to Irvine's resiliency than just Chinese FCBs. I think that if you slice up the Asian population by distinct ethnicity, those other cities will have a higher percentage of Chinese population.

So while Chinese FCB is a factor, due to the population mix and size of Irvine, it has to be more than just that.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 01:15:26 PM

It's more than FCBs. I'd much rather live in central/south OC than where Walnut/Diamond Bar/Alhambra are located (apologies to my friends who live in those cities). What university is within those city boundaries?

I've listed a number of reasons why Irvine is has the "special sauce". Of those, I think location, access to jobs and new housing stock are standouts. I don't know if those other cities have new home tracts, but I do think that FCBs have a preference for new homes because they can pick and choose (especially FCBs who are influenced by Feng Shui).


IHO, please re-read what I said. I was specifically pointing to what make prices resilient.

I will even agree with you that myself and most people I know would rather live in central south OC than Walnut/Diamond Bar/Alhambra. Irvine has a ton of great amenities like you mentioned but Newport, Laguna, and even Aliso have most of that too. Did not stop prices from falling much further than Irvine.

Alhambra/Diamond Bar/ Walnut has almost none of the great amenities. Having lived in Diamond Bar and Walnut for 4.5 years, I would attest to that. Despite not having awesome Irvine amenities, prices were resilient like Irvine. The only similarities I can find are good schools and large Asian population.


This goes back to my post asking about the breakdown of Asian demographics. Those cities have predominately Chinese demographics (I believe), Irvine does not. While there are many, you will see that there are tons of other Asians, Middle Easterners etc. Like GG and Westminster, there are also many Vietnamese in Irvine and if I were to choose the next largest Asian population, i think it's Korean.

So what I'm saying that there is more to Irvine's resiliency than just Chinese FCBs. I think that if you slice up the Asian population by distinct ethnicity, those other cities will have a higher percentage of Chinese population.

So while Chinese FCB is a factor, due to the population mix and size of Irvine, it has to be more than just that.

Also important is the type of FCBs...mostly families and young couples. 

This is an excellent article about Irvine's changing demographics:

Quote
“The reality is the infrastructure can’t cope with all the new people coming in,” said Myers, while shopping at the Wholesome Choice market, a store known for its huge selection of ethnic food, including specialties from South Africa that reminds him of his childhood. “When I arrived here, Irvine was a village. Then it became a town, then a city. Now, I think it’s a metropolis.”

Sue Howell, who moved in with her cousin in Irvine more than a decade ago, reminisced about the lifestyle “of years before. There’s no bustle. There was more calm. We felt safe like in our yard. Nowadays, you see indications of Asia everywhere.”

As examples, she listed seeing store signs in Chinese or Korean — and foreign characters on restaurant menus. She acknowledges that it bothers her.

The clerical worker, 47, stood in the parking lot of Ace Hardware Store, describing it as “a bit much. I don’t want people to think it’s prejudice. That’s not me, that’s not many of us. There should just be a balance of all cultures co-existing, not one over the other.”

https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-irvine-immigrants-20170511-htmlstory.html
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 05, 2018, 01:49:08 PM
For the record, I do agree with Kenkoko that cities with larger Asian demographics tend to have resiliency... but I think the premise is in Orange County alone, Irvine presents a more unique situation due to size, location, housing stock, and amenities. I've never said Irvine is more resilient than those other cities posted, only to neighboring cities in Orange County.

But this brings up a good question, what are the numbers for cities with large Asian demographics that are closer to Irvine like Garden Grove and Westminster?

Where there are many Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Indian, and Jewish kids are, the schools are usually highly ranked for their academic achievements. I'm not sure if it's the highly ranked schools that attracted the buyers/parents first or if it's the kids that have made the academic success in whatever school they've been put. Maybe it's both.

I think it's their parents' culture to train their kids to have successful academic achievements more than anything. It must be that they think that will guarantee success in life eventually. It's not a bad thing for the parents to teach them to have good school grades, but I think too much pressure especially when comparing with other kids is never a good thing. Irvine seems to be already in that state and I guess it will continue to be, but it will keep bringing good grades. Although there are some elementary schools in Irvine that seem to be having lower ranks these days.

But the main difference with Irvine compare to other cities with Asian or smart kids is that the city of Irvine is masterfully planned. Let me say again, Irvine is masterfully planned by The Irvine Company. I really don't think it's got to do with any feng shui or those superstitious stuff. Everything is clean and organized. Notice how there is not much boutique shops in Irvine especially in newer areas? That's one of the ways to masterfully plan or control to keep the city safe. Now it has good and bad. It's safe and clean, but it has no character. All homes are the same and nothing opens after 9pm. BUT it provides good assurance to park your money for FCBs or any other investors including regular home buyers. When there are more fun and characters, it's more risky, and more surprises with changes are inevitable. Irvine does not do that. It's consistent and boring. That's the way to keep the city more valuable and resilient. I think GP is a threat to them in that sense, but that's whole another discussion.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 01:56:37 PM
For the record, I do agree with Kenkoko that cities with larger Asian demographics tend to have resiliency... but I think the premise is in Orange County alone, Irvine presents a more unique situation due to size, location, housing stock, and amenities. I've never said Irvine is more resilient than those other cities posted, only to neighboring cities in Orange County.

But this brings up a good question, what are the numbers for cities with large Asian demographics that are closer to Irvine like Garden Grove and Westminster?

Where there are many Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Indian, and Jewish kids are, the schools are usually highly ranked for their academic achievements. I'm not sure if it's the highly ranked schools that attracted the buyers/parents first or if it's the kids that have made the academic success in whatever school they've been put. Maybe it's both.

I think it's their parents' culture to train their kids to have successful academic achievements more than anything. It must be that they think that will guarantee success in life eventually. It's not a bad thing for the parents to teach them to have good school grades, but I think too much pressure especially when comparing with other kids is never a good thing. Irvine seems to be already in that state and I guess it will continue to be, but it will keep bringing good grades. Although there are some elementary schools in Irvine that seem to be having lower ranks these days.

But the main difference with Irvine compare to other cities with Asian or smart kids is that the city of Irvine is masterfully planned. Let me say again, Irvine is masterfully planned by The Irvine Company. I really don't think it's got to do with any feng shui or those superstitious stuff. Everything is clean and organized. Notice how there is not much boutique shops in Irvine especially in newer areas? That's one of the ways to masterfully plan or control to keep the city safe. Now it has good and bad. It's safe and clean, but it has no character. All homes are the same and nothing opens after 9pm. BUT it provides good assurance to park your money for FCBs or any other investors including regular home buyers. When there are more fun and characters, it's more risky, and more surprises with changes are inevitable. Irvine does not do that. It's consistent and boring. That's the way to keep the city more valuable and resilient. I think GP is a threat to them in that sense, but that's whole another discussion.

TIC was marketing Irvine and OC to Asian before the bust, which is very good vision on their part.  TIC, however, dropped the ball on the commercial side as it was super slow in having ethnic businesses.

Diamond Jamboree really showed TIC the buying power of Asians and then the Mitsuwa center also beat TIC.  TIC has been ramping up its efforts since but still behind the curve.

Irvine is basically everything Asia is not...it's open, clean, no pollution, and lots of tract homes (no condos).   It has great public schools and now a ton of Asian businesses.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 05, 2018, 02:19:42 PM
Where there are many Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Indian, and Jewish kids are, the schools are usually highly ranked for their academic achievements. I'm not sure if it's the highly ranked schools that attracted the buyers/parents first or if it's the kids that have made the academic success in whatever school they've been put. Maybe it's both.

I think it's their parents' culture to train their kids to have successful academic achievements more than anything. It must be that they think that will guarantee success in life eventually. It's not a bad thing for the parents to teach them to have good school grades, but I think too much pressure especially when comparing with other kids is never a good thing. Irvine seems to be already in that state and I guess it will continue to be, but it will keep bringing good grades. Although there are some elementary schools in Irvine that seem to be having lower ranks these days.

But the main difference with Irvine compare to other cities with Asian or smart kids is that the city of Irvine is masterfully planned. Let me say again, Irvine is masterfully planned by The Irvine Company. I really don't think it's got to do with any feng shui or those superstitious stuff. Everything is clean and organized. Notice how there is not much boutique shops in Irvine especially in newer areas? That's one of the ways to masterfully plan or control to keep the city safe. Now it has good and bad. It's safe and clean, but it has no character. All homes are the same and nothing opens after 9pm. BUT it provides good assurance to park your money for FCBs or any other investors including regular home buyers. When there are more fun and characters, it's more risky, and more surprises with changes are inevitable. Irvine does not do that. It's consistent and boring. That's the way to keep the city more valuable and resilient. I think GP is a threat to them in that sense, but that's whole another discussion.

TIC was marketing Irvine and OC to Asian before the bust, which is very good vision on their part.  TIC, however, dropped the ball on the commercial side as it was super slow in having ethnic businesses.

Diamond Jamboree really showed TIC the buying power of Asians and then the Mitsuwa center also beat TIC.  TIC has been ramping up its efforts since but still behind the curve.

Irvine is basically everything Asia is not...it's open, clean, no pollution, and lots of tract homes (no condos).   It has great public schools and now a ton of Asian businesses.

Are you sure TIC was beat by those plazas? What about it was all TIC's plan?  >:D
BTW, Diamond Jamboree 2 is coming also. It would be right next to the current plaza but 2 story buildings. Expect more Ferraris and Lambos on that street.  8)

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/69502c_859271313f2b4ca3b1ee658b400fecda.pdf
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 02:22:43 PM
Where there are many Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Indian, and Jewish kids are, the schools are usually highly ranked for their academic achievements. I'm not sure if it's the highly ranked schools that attracted the buyers/parents first or if it's the kids that have made the academic success in whatever school they've been put. Maybe it's both.

I think it's their parents' culture to train their kids to have successful academic achievements more than anything. It must be that they think that will guarantee success in life eventually. It's not a bad thing for the parents to teach them to have good school grades, but I think too much pressure especially when comparing with other kids is never a good thing. Irvine seems to be already in that state and I guess it will continue to be, but it will keep bringing good grades. Although there are some elementary schools in Irvine that seem to be having lower ranks these days.

But the main difference with Irvine compare to other cities with Asian or smart kids is that the city of Irvine is masterfully planned. Let me say again, Irvine is masterfully planned by The Irvine Company. I really don't think it's got to do with any feng shui or those superstitious stuff. Everything is clean and organized. Notice how there is not much boutique shops in Irvine especially in newer areas? That's one of the ways to masterfully plan or control to keep the city safe. Now it has good and bad. It's safe and clean, but it has no character. All homes are the same and nothing opens after 9pm. BUT it provides good assurance to park your money for FCBs or any other investors including regular home buyers. When there are more fun and characters, it's more risky, and more surprises with changes are inevitable. Irvine does not do that. It's consistent and boring. That's the way to keep the city more valuable and resilient. I think GP is a threat to them in that sense, but that's whole another discussion.

TIC was marketing Irvine and OC to Asian before the bust, which is very good vision on their part.  TIC, however, dropped the ball on the commercial side as it was super slow in having ethnic businesses.

Diamond Jamboree really showed TIC the buying power of Asians and then the Mitsuwa center also beat TIC.  TIC has been ramping up its efforts since but still behind the curve.

Irvine is basically everything Asia is not...it's open, clean, no pollution, and lots of tract homes (no condos).   It has great public schools and now a ton of Asian businesses.

Are you sure TIC was beat by those plazas? What about it was all TIC's plan?  >:D
BTW, Diamond Jamboree 2 is coming also. It would be right next to the current plaza but 2 story buildings. Expect more Ferraris and Lambos on that street.  8)

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/69502c_859271313f2b4ca3b1ee658b400fecda.pdf

We thought about opening a business in TIC territory back in 2005 and they basically shut us down because we were not a chain and we wanted to open a Chinese/Korean cafe.  The rep literally said "we have enough boba shops"
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 05, 2018, 02:28:52 PM
Irvine is basically everything Asia is not...it's open, clean, no pollution, and lots of tract homes (no condos).   It has great public schools and now a ton of Asian businesses.

When you make a big blanket statement like that, comparing a city to a continent, you are just inviting criticism and accusation of having Irvine blinders on.

There are plenty of suburban cities in Japan and Taiwan that are open and clean like Irvine. Public schools in Japan and Taiwan have more challenging curriculum and have much higher test scores.

On the no pollution point, before you whisper it into existence, you should perhaps take note that we have people just about every month asking about the toxic fumes beneath Irvine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 02:34:35 PM
Irvine is basically everything Asia is not...it's open, clean, no pollution, and lots of tract homes (no condos).   It has great public schools and now a ton of Asian businesses.

When you make a big blanket statement like that, comparing a city to a continent, you are just inviting criticism and accusation of having Irvine blinders on.

There are plenty of suburban cities in Japan and Taiwan that are open and clean like Irvine. Public schools in Japan and Taiwan have more challenging curriculum and have much higher test scores.

On the no pollution point, before you whisper it into existence, you should perhaps take note that we have people just about every month asking about the toxic fumes beneath Irvine.

There are very very few Japanese immigrants so I am not sure why we are talking about Japan.

There are plenty of places in Taiwan that are relatively clean but Taiwan in general is still not Irvine clean.  Not to mention Taipei housing prices are pretty ridiculous as compared to relative income.  Additionally, most of the "houses" are condos rather than SFRs or Townhouses...unless you live in YangMinShan or Neihu.  Exemplar listings:

https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/taipei-city-tw-twn

and again...influx of recent immigrants are not from Taiwan but mainland China.  FWIW, I was born in Taiwan and have visited there quite a few times recently.

Japan and Taiwanese public education are super test oriented and pretty much mandates conformity.  It is a known bug in the Asian/Confucian educational system...great test score...lack of innovation and independence.   The testing system also greatly discourages those who either 1) do not make it to elite levels or 2) have skill sets outside of the academic realm.  Again...known bugs in the system. 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2013/09/16/commentary/japan-commentary/lack-of-liberal-arts-education-is-sapping-japans-creativity/

https://www.scmp.com/tech/start-ups/article/2125049/chinas-education-system-kills-initiative-and-creativity-says-co

https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2013/11/japans-cutthroat-school-system-a-cautionary-tale-for-the-us/281612/

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2015/0823/Creative-demand-Taiwan-says-radical-school-reform-will-set-it-apart

I'm not even going to get into Asia pollution versus Irvine pollution.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 05, 2018, 02:35:16 PM
We thought about opening a business in TIC territory back in 2005 and they basically shut us down because we were not a chain and we wanted to open a Chinese/Korean cafe.  The rep literally said "we have enough boba shops"

Too bad. I would have definitely frequented a Chinese/Korean cafe. :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 05, 2018, 02:36:09 PM
Where there are many Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Indian, and Jewish kids are, the schools are usually highly ranked for their academic achievements. I'm not sure if it's the highly ranked schools that attracted the buyers/parents first or if it's the kids that have made the academic success in whatever school they've been put. Maybe it's both.

I think it's their parents' culture to train their kids to have successful academic achievements more than anything. It must be that they think that will guarantee success in life eventually. It's not a bad thing for the parents to teach them to have good school grades, but I think too much pressure especially when comparing with other kids is never a good thing. Irvine seems to be already in that state and I guess it will continue to be, but it will keep bringing good grades. Although there are some elementary schools in Irvine that seem to be having lower ranks these days.

But the main difference with Irvine compare to other cities with Asian or smart kids is that the city of Irvine is masterfully planned. Let me say again, Irvine is masterfully planned by The Irvine Company. I really don't think it's got to do with any feng shui or those superstitious stuff. Everything is clean and organized. Notice how there is not much boutique shops in Irvine especially in newer areas? That's one of the ways to masterfully plan or control to keep the city safe. Now it has good and bad. It's safe and clean, but it has no character. All homes are the same and nothing opens after 9pm. BUT it provides good assurance to park your money for FCBs or any other investors including regular home buyers. When there are more fun and characters, it's more risky, and more surprises with changes are inevitable. Irvine does not do that. It's consistent and boring. That's the way to keep the city more valuable and resilient. I think GP is a threat to them in that sense, but that's whole another discussion.

TIC was marketing Irvine and OC to Asian before the bust, which is very good vision on their part.  TIC, however, dropped the ball on the commercial side as it was super slow in having ethnic businesses.

Diamond Jamboree really showed TIC the buying power of Asians and then the Mitsuwa center also beat TIC.  TIC has been ramping up its efforts since but still behind the curve.

Irvine is basically everything Asia is not...it's open, clean, no pollution, and lots of tract homes (no condos).   It has great public schools and now a ton of Asian businesses.

Are you sure TIC was beat by those plazas? What about it was all TIC's plan?  >:D
BTW, Diamond Jamboree 2 is coming also. It would be right next to the current plaza but 2 story buildings. Expect more Ferraris and Lambos on that street.  8)

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/69502c_859271313f2b4ca3b1ee658b400fecda.pdf

We thought about opening a business in TIC territory back in 2005 and they basically shut us down because we were not a chain and we wanted to open a Chinese/Korean cafe.  The rep literally said "we have enough boba shops"

Are you saying if you were to do the same now, TIC will allow it?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 05, 2018, 03:00:25 PM
This is an excellent article about Irvine's changing demographics:

Quote
“The reality is the infrastructure can’t cope with all the new people coming in,” said Myers, while shopping at the Wholesome Choice market, a store known for its huge selection of ethnic food, including specialties from South Africa that reminds him of his childhood. “When I arrived here, Irvine was a village. Then it became a town, then a city. Now, I think it’s a metropolis.”

Sue Howell, who moved in with her cousin in Irvine more than a decade ago, reminisced about the lifestyle “of years before. There’s no bustle. There was more calm. We felt safe like in our yard. Nowadays, you see indications of Asia everywhere.”

As examples, she listed seeing store signs in Chinese or Korean — and foreign characters on restaurant menus. She acknowledges that it bothers her.

The clerical worker, 47, stood in the parking lot of Ace Hardware Store, describing it as “a bit much. I don’t want people to think it’s prejudice. That’s not me, that’s not many of us. There should just be a balance of all cultures co-existing, not one over the other.”

https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-irvine-immigrants-20170511-htmlstory.html

This is my favorite part of the article:

May Hartman moved to Irvine from Shanghai in 2014 to study accounting at Irvine Valley College. She’s part of a wave of immigration by Asians to the city.

There is much she loves about its neighborhoods, and she recently married and plans to settle down here.

“I say ‘wow,’ no pollution, no trash. I saw so many foreign faces, it caused me much surprise,” she said about her first days in Irvine.

She was also struck by the single-mindedness of the culture. “Everyone asked me when I will buy some house.”
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 05, 2018, 03:00:34 PM

There are very very few Japanese immigrants so I am not sure why we are talking about Japan.

There are plenty of places in Taiwan that are relatively clean but Taiwan in general is still not Irvine clean.  Not to mention Taipei housing prices are pretty ridiculous as compared to relative income.  Additionally, most of the "houses" are condos rather than SFRs or Townhouses...unless you live in YangMinShan or Neihu. 
Again, I ask you to please fact check your claims.

There is currently more than 250k Japanese in LA. Only about 100k Taiwanese.

Since you are from Taiwan as I am, I find it very surprising that you did not mention Hualien City. You picked 2 seemingly random areas (not even a city) next to Taipei (capitol of Taiwan for those who are not familiar) to illustrate your point. If you ask 100 Taiwanese person, probably 90 will tell you Hualien is heaven on earth. Having lived there for 2 years myself, I would say it's every bit as clean and open as Irvine.


I'm not even going to get into Asia pollution versus Irvine pollution.

Still waiting for an explanation to your claim that Irvine has no polution.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 05, 2018, 03:09:05 PM
YellowFever?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 05, 2018, 03:15:09 PM

There are very very few Japanese immigrants so I am not sure why we are talking about Japan.

There are plenty of places in Taiwan that are relatively clean but Taiwan in general is still not Irvine clean.  Not to mention Taipei housing prices are pretty ridiculous as compared to relative income.  Additionally, most of the "houses" are condos rather than SFRs or Townhouses...unless you live in YangMinShan or Neihu. 
Again, I ask you to please fact check your claims.

There is currently more than 250k Japanese in LA. Only about 100k Taiwanese.

Since you are from Taiwan as I am, I find it very surprising that you did not mention Hualien City. You picked 2 seemingly random areas (not even a city) next to Taipei (capitol of Taiwan for those who are not familiar) to illustrate your point. If you ask 100 Taiwanese person, probably 90 will tell you Hualien is heaven on earth. Having lived there for 2 years myself, I would say it's every bit as clean and open as Irvine.


I'm not even going to get into Asia pollution versus Irvine pollution.

Still waiting for an explanation to your claim that Irvine has no polution.

Which pollution would you prefer?
The one above you or the one below you?

A question - Is every part of Irvine pretty much not completely safe from TCE toxic?

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on December 05, 2018, 03:18:43 PM
We need to kick off and restart the environmental thread!
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on December 05, 2018, 03:23:20 PM
  The rep literally said "we have enough boba shops"

But not enuff corean bbqs!!!!! amirite?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 03:33:43 PM

Again, I ask you to please fact check your claims.

There is currently more than 250k Japanese in LA. Only about 100k Taiwanese.

Note...I said Japanese immigrants.  Between 1986 and 2016, 194,969 Japanese immigrated to the US.  By comparison, 289,966 Taiwanese, 691,668 South Koreans, and 1,703,930 Mainland Chinese.

Also...there are 137K Japanese in the Greater LA area...60K Taiwanese.  Considering Japan has 6X the population of Taiwan...Taiwan has 2x the representation of Japan.

27% of Japanese-American are foreign born and 84% of them speak English fluently.

64% of Japanese immigrants have been in the US for more than 10 years.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/fact-sheet/asian-americans-japanese-in-the-u-s/

There were 5,088 Japanese in Irvine in 2000...6,474 in 2010...that is not a significant increase.

Quote
Since you are from Taiwan as I am, I find it very surprising that you did not mention Hualien City. You picked 2 seemingly random areas (not even a city) next to Taipei (capitol of Taiwan for those who are not familiar) to illustrate your point. If you ask 100 Taiwanese person, probably 90 will tell you Hualien is heaven on earth. Having lived there for 2 years myself, I would say it's every bit as clean and open as Irvine.

Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 

Hualien is 3 hours outside of Taipei!  That's not a suburb. 

Clean is not just about weather or environment.  "Clean" means well-zoned, master-planned, nice parks, nice looking homes.  Almost all of Taiwan is a mix of old and new construction...and most people still live in multi-level condos.   You have a combination of old streets/alley mix with major roads.  It's basically LA/urban style living.

I love visiting Taipei and all its awesome food and streets but let's not pretend that it's anywhere close to Irvine.  You still have wild dogs roaming in Taipei and lots of not so clean alleyways.  I also much rather raise my family in Irvine than Taipei.

compare a shot of Hualien:

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Hualien_Taiwan_cityscape_with_mountains.jpg/800px-Hualien_Taiwan_cityscape_with_mountains.jpg)

(https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/axiomimagesthumbs-or/proxy/thumbs/AX0159_169-00002.jpg)

Those are just not the same.  Living in a 5-10 story condo is not the same as living in a SFR.

Quote

Still waiting for an explanation to your claim that Irvine has no polution.

Seriously...are you Sith?  Do we deal in absolutes here?  I am sure there are great and unpolluted areas in China as well but that's not what we are talking about. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on December 05, 2018, 03:43:02 PM
I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 03:49:32 PM
I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Taipei is not too bad cause it gets a lot of rain but there is a lot of motorcycle/scooter pollution.   There is a reason why people wear surgical masks all the time there (other than when they are sick).

It is also super moldy cause it's in the subtropics.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 05, 2018, 03:53:13 PM
I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Are TCE toxic plume and the yuge landfill any better?

Which pollution would you prefer?
The one you can see and the one you can't see.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 03:56:29 PM
I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Are TCE toxic plume and the yuge landfill any better?

Which pollution would you prefer?
The one you can see and the one you can't see.

Seriously...you have got to be kidding me. 

1)  You assume that the water in Asia are clean and pristine?  You don't think there are ton of toxins in Asian cities? 
2)  Landfills?  Really?  There are no landfill in China, Taiwan, Korea, or Japan?
3)  Go compare the air quality of Shanghai, Beijing, or any major Chinese city with Irvine. 

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2017/sep/01/popsicles-pollution-ice-lollies-taiwan-taipei-contaminated-waterways

https://www.nature.com/articles/35050266

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/16/south-koreans-more-worried-about-air-pollution-than-kims-nukes

http://isdp.eu/publication/south-koreas-air-pollution-gasping-solutions/

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/toxic-chemicals-detected-at-tokyos-new-tsukiji-fish-market-site

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/olympics/tokyo-2020-olympics-water-quality-swimming-open-air-treatment-controversy-a8595116.html
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 05, 2018, 03:59:27 PM
I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Are TCE toxic plume and the yuge landfill any better?

Which pollution would you prefer?
The one you can see and the one you can't see.

Seriously...you have got to be kidding me. 

1)  You assume that the water in Asia are clean and pristine?  You don't think there are ton of toxins in Asian cities? 
2)  Landfills?  Really?  There are no landfill in China, Taiwan, Korea, or Japan?
3)  Go compare the air quality of Shanghai, Beijing, or any major Chinese city with Irvine.

Yeah, I'm kidding you. Why so serious?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 04:00:57 PM
I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Are TCE toxic plume and the yuge landfill any better?

Which pollution would you prefer?
The one you can see and the one you can't see.

Seriously...you have got to be kidding me. 

1)  You assume that the water in Asia are clean and pristine?  You don't think there are ton of toxins in Asian cities? 
2)  Landfills?  Really?  There are no landfill in China, Taiwan, Korea, or Japan?
3)  Go compare the air quality of Shanghai, Beijing, or any major Chinese city with Irvine.

Yeah, I'm kidding you. Why so serious?

sorry...getting worked up. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 04:03:10 PM

Are you saying if you were to do the same now, TIC will allow it?

I think they would be much more open to the idea.  Before, it was a fad to them.

Look at the number of Asian restaurants opening up in TIC malls.  Culver Plaza is almost completely Asian, Northpark and Cypress Village are as well.  Weirdly enough, Woodbury is still pretty mixed.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 05, 2018, 04:05:40 PM

Note...I said Japanese immigrants.  Between 1986 and 2016, 194,969 Japanese immigrated to the US.  By comparison, 289,966 Taiwanese, 691,668 South Koreans, and 1,703,930 Mainland Chinese.


So 289k is significant and 198k is not ? It's difficult to frame the discussion with you since you are constantly cherry picking stats.


Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 

Not true. The best area of Taipei is Xinyi District. It's also master planned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinyi_District,_Taipei


Hualien is 3 hours outside of Taipei!  That's not a suburb. 


How does that disqualify Hualien exactly? It's a beautiful city with more than 100k people. It's a shame that Taiwan gets reduced to having nothing outside of Taipei.


Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 05, 2018, 04:16:07 PM

Also...there are 137K Japanese in the Greater LA area...60K Taiwanese.  Considering Japan has 6X the population of Taiwan...Taiwan has 2x the representation of Japan.


Another example where you are cherry picking stats to illustrate your point.

You said you want to talk about Mainland Chinese. Run the numbers using Chinese immigrants in LA and the population of China. That would make them even less relevant than Japan according to your valuation.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 04:18:49 PM
Xinyi is the business district...it was redesigned around Taipei 101 but it is hardly seen as a pure residential area.   Of course, that has nothing to do with YangMing Shan or Neihu.   

And again...Xinyi is an urban environment....not comparable to Irvine.

Quote

How does that disqualify Hualien exactly? It's a beautiful city with more than 100k people. It's a shame that Taiwan gets reduced to having nothing outside of Taipei.

Considering you can go from Taipei to Kaoshung in like 5 hours, being 3 hours outside of Taipei does not make Hualian a suburb. 

Greater Taipei has 7 million people...9 million if you include Taoyuan.  That's about 40% of the population of Taiwan.  Taipei is also seen as the cultural, governmental, and technological center of Taiwan.  Raising Hualian as an example would be like saying Yunnan is beautiful and question why people in Beijing or Shanghai wants to move to the US.

Edit:  Hualien is also on the hurricane side of Taiwan...it's why there are very few people living on the eastern side of Taiwan.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/88/Population_density_of_Taiwan_by_district.svg/330px-Population_density_of_Taiwan_by_district.svg.png)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 04:26:12 PM

Also...there are 137K Japanese in the Greater LA area...60K Taiwanese.  Considering Japan has 6X the population of Taiwan...Taiwan has 2x the representation of Japan.


Another example where you are cherry picking stats to illustrate your point.

You said you want to talk about Mainland Chinese. Run the numbers using Chinese immigrants in LA and the population of China. That would make them even less relevant than Japan according to your valuation.

Yeah...I'm not even going to compare immigration policies of PRC and viability of people able to move to that of Japan and Taiwan. 

Also, since the bulk of Japanese immigration was pre-1980s while the bulk of Taiwanese immigration of in the 1980s and 1990s, I am not sure why we are discussing this with respect to recent change in Irvine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 05, 2018, 04:36:18 PM
Kenkoko...I am not sure what exactly you are fighting about.  There is a lot of things to love about East Asia (China, Japan, Taiwan, and S.K.) but there are also a lot of issues (most notably pollution, density, weather, and inflexible/outdated education system).   Those issues are what immigrants are trying to get away from.

PRC has its own special set of issues as to why people want to leave there, especially if you have the resources to buy property in the US.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 05, 2018, 05:02:10 PM

Are you saying if you were to do the same now, TIC will allow it?

I think they would be much more open to the idea.  Before, it was a fad to them.

Look at the number of Asian restaurants opening up in TIC malls.  Culver Plaza is almost completely Asian, Northpark and Cypress Village are as well.  Weirdly enough, Woodbury is still pretty mixed.

Good points. I think TIC limits what retails to come very conservatively. I wish they accept more boutique shops, but like you said, NP and CV plazas do have those while WB town center has only nationalized ones. Maybe different authorizers?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 05, 2018, 05:54:17 PM
Kenkoko...I am not sure what exactly you are fighting about.  There is a lot of things to love about East Asia (China, Japan, Taiwan, and S.K.) but there are also a lot of issues (most notably pollution, density, weather, and inflexible/outdated education system).   Those issues are what immigrants are trying to get away from.

PRC has its own special set of issues as to why people want to leave there, especially if you have the resources to buy property in the US.

Irvinecommuter, I not sure why you think I am fighting. I agree with a lot of stuff that’s being said. I do disagree with using a big blanket statement like using a city to compare to a continent. I also disagree with you cherry-picking data. It’s already difficult to do a fair apple to apple comparison with set premises. It’s impossible when you decide to hand pick this stat but not the other.

I jumped in when IHO was being questioned by others for his take on Irvine only dropping 10-15% and you started listing numbers from surrounding cities showing Irvine being more price resilient. I felt using data from surrounding cities (also Las Vegas and Scottdale) were rather pointless because the demographics are so different from Irvine.

I felt we should be looking at cities with more similar demographics to Irvine and sure enough you see more similarities. You can cherry pick numbers for Irvine and Diamond Bar but even with the cherry-picked math, the downward price resilience in areas like DB/Walnut/Arcadia/etc still more very much mirror Irvine. Much more than MissionV/Aliso/LakeForest/etc.

 
We can at least agree that FCBs are big factor, right? IHO brought up a good question. How do we break down the demographics? It’s rather difficult and any analysis/conclusion will be anecdotal.

First you must decide what “Chinese” includes. For example, I am from Taiwan and my wife is from Hong Kong we are both under the “Chinese” category when it comes to any official stats but that’s hardly accurate for the discussion at hand. I started High School in Arcadia in the early 90s and school statistic would say we have 35% Chinese. But, we barely had 50 students that are really from China. (about 4000 students total)
Non-mainlander behaves drastically different from Mainlander when it comes to real estate.

Non-mainlander mostly came during the 80s,90s, and early 00s. Tends to have roots set down and raised families. Tends to treat Real estate more conservatively and cares about cap rate. Very conservative when it comes to homebuying power. Rarely buying up to LTV limits. Rarely see homes left empty. Very much affective by the state of the US economy. Enters and exits market like other Americans. 

Mainlander mostly came after mid-2000s. Tends to be solo, just wife with kid, no extended family. Tends to treat RE as a safety deposit box caring about liquidity not cap rate. Often see homes left empty. Willing to buy wtf price homes. Not very much affected by the state of the US economy. Enters and exit markets completely different from other Americans.

You can look at different Irvine villages and get somewhat of a feel. Older villages like University Park, Turtle rock you have much more non-mainlander. From about Woodbury on, you get more and more % of mainlanders. Woodbury is famous in Chinese circle as the “mistress village” where Chinese business men stash their concubines.

Up to this point, mainlanders have mostly been great for Irvine real estate. The only downside I can think of is the high prices pushing more non FCBs to buy close or at their financial limits. This and possible mass exit by Mainlanders could be the next instability factor when we do have a downturn.

The subject of the thread is when the next housing bottom would be. I think it’s more and more likely now that we will have a US slowdown that coincided with a China meltdown. The inverted yield curve and the recent china economy numbers are looking bleak.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 05, 2018, 06:36:36 PM
I posted a poll on my FB asking my TW friends to pick the most posh area of Taipei.

So far the return is 47 Xinyi District, 6 YangMing Shan, and 1  Neihu.

 >:D
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on December 05, 2018, 07:52:12 PM
I posted a poll on my FB asking my TW friends to pick the most posh area of Taipei.

So far the return is 47 Xinyi District, 6 YangMing Shan, and 1  Neihu.

 >:D

#TaiwaneseTalk
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 08:29:32 AM
I posted a poll on my FB asking my TW friends to pick the most posh area of Taipei.

So far the return is 47 Xinyi District, 6 YangMing Shan, and 1  Neihu.

 >:D

Again...you are comparing Downtown LA with Beverly Hills or Malibu...completely different areas and lifestyles. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 08:41:45 AM
Kenkoko:  I was going break down your post but I don't think it would be beneficial. 

Fundamentally, you need to understand that the development that Irvine experienced since 2000 is almost all new homes.  That affects pricing in that new homes are usually 10 to 15% lower than re-sales for a number of reasons.  Irvine has exceeded all median price points for the "Asian" housing markets we have identified other than Arcadia.  That is significant.  Once Irvine "sells out" and becomes a mature market, all you will have left is re-sale and there will be significantly more competition and increased prices. 

The other question is why Chinese/FCB came to Irvine instead of going to traditional Asian pockets...money clearly wasn't the concern so why come to Irvine?  This is where I differ with you on why FCB bought in Irvine....while you think they did to keep their money safe, I believe that they did so that they can bring their families here.  Contrary to your assertion, Stonegate, OH, PP, and BP are all filled with families and not just nuclear families, grandparents as well.  Pass by any of the parks at like 10 am. and you will see a ton of elderly Chinese people talking and doing taichi.  FCB bought houses here because China was beginning to crackdown on certain business practices and Chinese business people were trying to get their family to the US.  They bought the houses not for investment purposes, but to get green cards.  They also put a ton of money down on investment zones for EB-5 purposes. 

As for going forward, I expect a rescission of the US and global markets (can't run bull forever) but I don't expect a huge hit on Irvine housing market.  When the economies recovery, Irvine will be a top destination for Asian buyers looking to for a place to settle down.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 06, 2018, 08:58:00 AM
So funny... no one believed in FCBs 10 years ago.

#LegendOfTheFCB
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 06, 2018, 09:00:21 AM
I've mentioned this before but I'm not worried about a lull in Chinese FCBs, Irvine has plenty of other FCBs.

In fact... there is a particular Caucasian demographic that keeps Woodbridge prices amazingly high.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 06, 2018, 10:14:49 AM
This is why having a disscussion with you is difficult. You brought up Neihu and YangMing Shan first. YOU called them the ultra posh areas of Taipei.  I was merely following the premises you set.  >:(

You can just do a quick google search. Numerous travel blog/sites called Xinyi the most posh area of Taipei.

Downtown LA is is not very accurate description either. Even Wikipedia called Xinyi the Manhattan of Taiwan. And YangMing Shan is a freaking National Park. Sure there are some nice mansions but not a good comparison to Irvine or Anywhere we talked about.


Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 06, 2018, 10:27:08 AM
Kenkoko:  I was going break down your post but I don't think it would be beneficial. 

Fundamentally, you need to understand that the development that Irvine experienced since 2000 is almost all new homes.  That affects pricing in that new homes are usually 10 to 15% lower than re-sales for a number of reasons.  Irvine has exceeded all median price points for the "Asian" housing markets we have identified other than Arcadia.  That is significant.  Once Irvine "sells out" and becomes a mature market, all you will have left is re-sale and there will be significantly more competition and increased prices. 

The other question is why Chinese/FCB came to Irvine instead of going to traditional Asian pockets...money clearly wasn't the concern so why come to Irvine?  This is where I differ with you on why FCB bought in Irvine....while you think they did to keep their money safe, I believe that they did so that they can bring their families here.  Contrary to your assertion, Stonegate, OH, PP, and BP are all filled with families and not just nuclear families, grandparents as well.  Pass by any of the parks at like 10 am. and you will see a ton of elderly Chinese people talking and doing taichi.  FCB bought houses here because China was beginning to crackdown on certain business practices and Chinese business people were trying to get their family to the US.  They bought the houses not for investment purposes, but to get green cards.  They also put a ton of money down on investment zones for EB-5 purposes. 

As for going forward, I expect a rescission of the US and global markets (can't run bull forever) but I don't expect a huge hit on Irvine housing market.  When the economies recovery, Irvine will be a top destination for Asian buyers looking to for a place to settle down.

Buying houses in the U.S. gets you green card? I'm asking out of curiosity, not starting an argument.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 06, 2018, 10:30:06 AM

Buying houses in the U.S. gets you green card? I'm asking out of curiosity, not starting an argument.

Short answer is yes. You have to meet the purchase amount criteria and follow the proper procedures.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 06, 2018, 10:35:50 AM

Buying houses in the U.S. gets you green card? I'm asking out of curiosity, not starting an argument.

Short answer is yes. You have to meet the purchase amount criteria and follow the proper procedures.

I just asked in Google also, and it said, "No, it's a false rumor." haha
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 06, 2018, 11:34:41 AM
Fundamentally, you need to understand that the development that Irvine experienced since 2000 is almost all new homes.  That affects pricing in that new homes are usually 10 to 15% lower than re-sales for a number of reasons.  Irvine has exceeded all median price points for the "Asian" housing markets we have identified other than Arcadia.  That is significant.  Once Irvine "sells out" and becomes a mature market, all you will have left is re-sale and there will be significantly more competition and increased prices.

I agree with that. Prices will pop when Irvine gets built out. I see that you only mentioned Arcadia and left out San Marino to illustrate your point. (it’s one of the 8 cities I posted)

The other question is why Chinese/FCB came to Irvine instead of going to traditional Asian pockets...money clearly wasn't the concern so why come to Irvine?

When I looked at the numbers for Irvine and other traditional Asian pockets, I was really surprised of how little price separation there is and how almost every Asian cities have Irvine like downward price resilience. I mean San Gabriel Alhambra Rowland Heights are shitty areas to live in IMO. I think the more interesting question is why didn’t more Chinese/FCB choose Irvine over those shitty areas?

This is where I differ with you on why FCB bought in Irvine....while you think they did to keep their money safe, I believe that they did so that they can bring their families here.  Contrary to your assertion, Stonegate, OH, PP, and BP are all filled with families and not just nuclear families, grandparents as well.  Pass by any of the parks at like 10 am. and you will see a ton of elderly Chinese people talking and doing taichi.  FCB bought houses here because China was beginning to crackdown on certain business practices and Chinese business people were trying to get their family to the US.  They bought the houses not for investment purposes, but to get green cards.  They also put a ton of money down on investment zones for EB-5 purposes.

I can go to the park as you suggested but how am I supposed to see people who are not here?
Before you start putting words in my mouth, go back and read what I said. I never said newer villages are only filled with Chinese nuclear FCBs. I said you see more % of Chinese FCBs in newer villages which I still contest is true.
Let me bring the discussion back to something more relevant. Economy is getting bad in China, there are more and more Chinese investors putting their previously empty homes on the rental market to capture some return. This is especially evident in newer villages like Eastwood and GP neighborhoods. The oversupply of rental homes available is driving rent significantly down. You have Chinese realtors listing 1 million-dollar homes for rent for about $3000 a month now. My parents are Irvine landlords, and this is pissing them off.


As for going forward, I expect a rescission of the US and global markets (can't run bull forever) but I don't expect a huge hit on Irvine housing market.  When the economies recovery, Irvine will be a top destination for Asian buyers looking to for a place to settle down.

The fascinating thing on this forum is that anyone who isn’t bullish on Irvine all the time and on all fronts gets called out. People like CV will jump out and give a snide comment like not buying Irvine home now is putting life on hold. You called out people for “bashing Irvine” for merely pointing out that there may be price declines.

I’ve always believed in the long-term future of Irvine. But I do see a US slowdown + China meltdown looming. I think that will create a good short term buying opportunity. If you have a housing NEED, then please pay this no mind. Fulfill your need. If you just WANT to buy a better/bigger house, then waiting for a better entry point is the smart thing to do.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Seeding on December 06, 2018, 12:43:14 PM
Buying a house doesn't get you a green car, since it's not the same as EB5 investments. EB5 money must be investments in businesses so jobs can be created.

If buying a house can get you a green card, I could have done it in the early 90's, instead of exhausting all legal means over the past 27 years just to get mine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 06, 2018, 12:51:54 PM
Buying a house doesn't get you a green car, since it's not the same as EB5 investments. EB5 money must be investments in businesses so jobs can be created.

If buying a house can get you a green card, I could have done it in the early 90's, instead of exhausting all legal means over the past 27 years just to get mine.

Not directly. A common practice is go through the EB5 route. Borrow (cash out) part of your investment and use it to buy a home. Go to a EB5 seminar in any of the traditional Asain immigrant city. They will explain to you in details and the steps to accomplish it.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 01:10:29 PM
This is why having a disscussion with you is difficult. You brought up Neihu and YangMing Shan first. YOU called them the ultra posh areas of Taipei.  I was merely following the premises you set.  >:(

You can just do a quick google search. Numerous travel blog/sites called Xinyi the most posh area of Taipei.

Downtown LA is is not very accurate description either. Even Wikipedia called Xinyi the Manhattan of Taiwan. And YangMing Shan is a freaking National Park. Sure there are some nice mansions but not a good comparison to Irvine or Anywhere we talked about.


Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 

THere are no real equivalents in Taiwan to Irvine...that's important.  Yangmingshan is the closest thing with single family American style homes.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 01:14:47 PM
Buying a house doesn't get you a green car, since it's not the same as EB5 investments. EB5 money must be investments in businesses so jobs can be created.

If buying a house can get you a green card, I could have done it in the early 90's, instead of exhausting all legal means over the past 27 years just to get mine.

It depends on how you characterize the purchase and how it is purchased.  It can be used as collateral for a commercial loan that then translate into a EB-5 investment. 

https://behringcompanies.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/115002357113-5-Things-EB-5-Investors-Can-Do-Preparing-for-Their-Source-of-Funds-Report

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/17/realestate/want-a-green-card-invest-in-real-estate.html
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 06, 2018, 01:27:19 PM
This is why having a disscussion with you is difficult. You brought up Neihu and YangMing Shan first. YOU called them the ultra posh areas of Taipei.  I was merely following the premises you set.  >:(

You can just do a quick google search. Numerous travel blog/sites called Xinyi the most posh area of Taipei.

Downtown LA is is not very accurate description either. Even Wikipedia called Xinyi the Manhattan of Taiwan. And YangMing Shan is a freaking National Park. Sure there are some nice mansions but not a good comparison to Irvine or Anywhere we talked about.


Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 

THere are no real equivalents in Taiwan to Irvine...that's important.  Yangmingshan is the closest thing with single family American style homes.

Do you even read what you post? YOU are the one that started the Taiwan to Irvine comparison.
And No. Yangmingshan is not the closest thing with single family American style home. You are confusing Beitou with Yangming Shan.
I repeat, Yangming Shan is a freaking National Park.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 01:27:30 PM

I agree with that. Prices will pop when Irvine gets built out. I see that you only mentioned Arcadia and left out San Marino to illustrate your point. (it’s one of the 8 cities I posted)


I don't know which 8 we are talking about San Marino is really a bad comp in that it is very small and is a significantly different price point.  It would be the ultimate example of re-sale positively affecting pricing.


Quote

When I looked at the numbers for Irvine and other traditional Asian pockets, I was really surprised of how little price separation there is and how almost every Asian cities have Irvine like downward price resilience. I mean San Gabriel Alhambra Rowland Heights are shitty areas to live in IMO. I think the more interesting question is why didn’t more Chinese/FCB choose Irvine over those shitty areas?


$640K (DB) and $708K (Walnut) is not significantly different than $840K (Irvine).  And again..you are comparing largely new home sales versus resales.



Quote

I can go to the park as you suggested but how am I supposed to see people who are not here?
Before you start putting words in my mouth, go back and read what I said. I never said newer villages are only filled with Chinese nuclear FCBs. I said you see more % of Chinese FCBs in newer villages which I still contest is true.

Let me bring the discussion back to something more relevant. Economy is getting bad in China, there are more and more Chinese investors putting their previously empty homes on the rental market to capture some return. This is especially evident in newer villages like Eastwood and GP neighborhoods. The oversupply of rental homes available is driving rent significantly down. You have Chinese realtors listing 1 million-dollar homes for rent for about $3000 a month now. My parents are Irvine landlords, and this is pissing them off.


Again...you fundamentally misunderstand why Chinese buy homes in US.  It is not generally for investment purpose...it's basically their backup plan.  We have two rentals near us, both were Chinese FCB.  One was buying it for his daughter that thought about going to school and the other was to potentially have their parents move to the US.  Neither things happened and there has been renters since.  They put the house on the market to rent because why not.   

Most people who can be FCBs have assets elsewhere...they buy in Irvine to have a backup plan for their families in case things go south in PRC.  They're not worried about a crash in China because they already moved a ton of money out of China and are basically plan their escape if they run into economic or political problems.

Quote

The fascinating thing on this forum is that anyone who isn’t bullish on Irvine all the time and on all fronts gets called out. People like CV will jump out and give a snide comment like not buying Irvine home now is putting life on hold. You called out people for “bashing Irvine” for merely pointing out that there may be price declines.

I’ve always believed in the long-term future of Irvine. But I do see a US slowdown + China meltdown looming. I think that will create a good short term buying opportunity. If you have a housing NEED, then please pay this no mind. Fulfill your need. If you just WANT to buy a better/bigger house, then waiting for a better entry point is the smart thing to do.

I didn't call anyone for bashing Irvine.  On the contrary...I have been called blind for "singing the praises" of Irvine.  Go back to anyone posts where anyone said that Irvine would not suffer price declines? 

I think the Irvine market will just stay flat...most people here have decent jobs and have a lot of equity and low interest rates.  At worst, they just stay put for 5 years.  Again...this assume a regular rescission. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 01:36:45 PM
This is why having a disscussion with you is difficult. You brought up Neihu and YangMing Shan first. YOU called them the ultra posh areas of Taipei.  I was merely following the premises you set.  >:(

You can just do a quick google search. Numerous travel blog/sites called Xinyi the most posh area of Taipei.

Downtown LA is is not very accurate description either. Even Wikipedia called Xinyi the Manhattan of Taiwan. And YangMing Shan is a freaking National Park. Sure there are some nice mansions but not a good comparison to Irvine or Anywhere we talked about.


Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 

THere are no real equivalents in Taiwan to Irvine...that's important.  Yangmingshan is the closest thing with single family American style homes.

Do you even read what you post? YOU are the one that started the Taiwan to Irvine comparison.
And No. Yangmingshan is not the closest thing with single family American style home. You are confusing Beitou with Yangming Shan.
I repeat, Yangming Shan is a freaking National Park.

Do you read what I wrote? 

Quote
There are plenty of places in Taiwan that are relatively clean but Taiwan in general is still not Irvine clean.  Not to mention Taipei housing prices are pretty ridiculous as compared to relative income.  Additionally, most of the "houses" are condos rather than SFRs or Townhouses...unless you live in YangMinShan or Neihu. 

Not a single mention of Irvine in that post. 

These are the properties in Yangminshan

https://www.rentaltw.com/property-10749

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204349404578099781248583090

https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/twn

Yangminshan was where the US diplomats and American soldiers used to live...so there are a lot of American style housing on there.

Other areas with American style homes:  Shilin (which is way outside of Taipei) and Neihu (which is where a lot of expats and returning Taiwanese live).

https://www.lenihansothebysrealty.com/sales/taipei-city-tw-twn/single-family-home-type/townhouse-type

Xinyi is super urban area.  It is definitely expensive but no SFRs or townhomes there.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on December 06, 2018, 01:40:10 PM
Hey guys, no disrespect, but you guys can text each other about Taiwanese cities. Let's stay with Irvine and maybe OC areas in this thread. There were some interesting insight from you guys about FCBs.

Do you really think FCBs will have that much impact on RE market? They certainly did in the past by buying many properties, but I'm talking about from now on going forward. If they sell en masse in a future, do you think that will cause the price drop significantly? OR if they do not sell, do you think that will keep the market going up each year?

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 01:50:14 PM
Hey guys, no disrespect, but you guys can text each other about Taiwanese cities. Let's stay with Irvine and maybe OC areas in this thread. There were some interesting insight from you guys about FCBs.

Do you really think FCBs will have that much impact on RE market? They certainly did in the past by buying many properties, but I'm talking about from now on going forward. If they sell en masse in a future, do you think that will cause the price drop significantly? OR if they do not sell, do you think that will keep the market going up each year?

Works for me.

I think if FCBs all mass sell...yes it would have a significant effect on RE prices.  Look at what happened in the 1990s when Japanese buyers starting  selling commercial property en mass..

https://www.nytimes.com/1995/06/09/business/japanese-are-in-rush-to-sell-their-real-estate-in-the-us.html

I would also say that if FCBs are sell en mass...there are whole lot of other problems to deal with. 

I don't expected prices in Irvine (or much elsewhere) to go up in the next 3-7 years...I think it will stay relative flat (3-5% growth max) and low volume.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 06, 2018, 04:12:54 PM

Again...you fundamentally misunderstand why Chinese buy homes in US.  It is not generally for investment purpose...it's basically their backup plan. 

Do you have any empirical evidence to back up your claim? if not, it's your anecdote vs my anecdote.

Most people who can be FCBs have assets elsewhere...they buy in Irvine to have a backup plan for their families in case things go south in PRC.  They're not worried about a crash in China because they already moved a ton of money out of China and are basically plan their escape if they run into economic or political problems.

I agree with part of that.  Their assets in Irvine are just a backup plan. But I disagree with you that they are not worried about a crash in China. Most of these Chinese FCBs who bought Irvine homes still do business in China. These Irvine homes are just rainy day cash that they stashed away safely. When shit hits the fan in China, the actual escape places they would move to are places like Singapore where they can still speak Chinese and live a much similar life style than Irvine. Even Australia is more likely as an escape spot than USA just because of the proximity. Irvine homes to them are like cash sitting in a safety deposit box. They would not have any mental attachments preventing them to sell when they need that cash.

I didn't call anyone for bashing Irvine. 

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 06, 2018, 04:25:32 PM
Hey guys, no disrespect, but you guys can text each other about Taiwanese cities. Let's stay with Irvine and maybe OC areas in this thread. There were some interesting insight from you guys about FCBs.

Do you really think FCBs will have that much impact on RE market? They certainly did in the past by buying many properties, but I'm talking about from now on going forward. If they sell en masse in a future, do you think that will cause the price drop significantly? OR if they do not sell, do you think that will keep the market going up each year?

I apologize. Taiwan is where I grew up and still has a lot of emotional attachment to. Just got all worked up when I felt my hometown was being misrepresented, especially by someone claiming to be from there.

I think if we just have a China meltdown, you would barely notice it. We have enough demand from non Chinese FCBs to absorb Chinese FCBs dumping.
If we have a US slowdown that is timed perfectly with China meltdown, you could see a sizable short term down. A lot homes bought by these Chinese FCBs over a decade could hit the market in a very short period of time. That'd be a good buying opportunity.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 04:55:58 PM
Hey guys, no disrespect, but you guys can text each other about Taiwanese cities. Let's stay with Irvine and maybe OC areas in this thread. There were some interesting insight from you guys about FCBs.

Do you really think FCBs will have that much impact on RE market? They certainly did in the past by buying many properties, but I'm talking about from now on going forward. If they sell en masse in a future, do you think that will cause the price drop significantly? OR if they do not sell, do you think that will keep the market going up each year?

I apologize. Taiwan is where I grew up and still has a lot of emotional attachment to. Just got all worked up when I felt my hometown was being misrepresented, especially by someone claiming to be from there.

I think if we just have a China meltdown, you would barely notice it. We have enough demand from non Chinese FCBs to absorb Chinese FCBs dumping.
If we have a US slowdown that is timed perfectly with China meltdown, you could see a sizable short term down. A lot homes bought by these Chinese FCBs over a decade could hit the market in a very short period of time. That'd be a good buying opportunity.

Hey...I don't need to claim to be from there.  I am from there. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Happiness on December 06, 2018, 05:29:23 PM
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 05:31:28 PM
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

I can't claim to be a mainlander but I have worked with quite a few...was in-house at a Chinese startup for awhile.  Have also worked in quite a few case involving EB-5 investment scams and schemes. 

Still SSS
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: misme on December 06, 2018, 05:58:26 PM
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

I doubt any real mainlanders are on an english language forum.

anyone want to pipe up and prove me wrong?

I get the feeling that most of the Asians on here are actually Asian Americans. (1.5 gen or more) and have a very different point of view than real recent immigrants/expats.






Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: newbieinirvine on December 08, 2018, 08:35:17 PM
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings. :P

How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: aquabliss on December 09, 2018, 12:06:48 AM
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

I doubt any real mainlanders are on an english language forum.

anyone want to pipe up and prove me wrong?

I get the feeling that most of the Asians on here are actually Asian Americans. (1.5 gen or more) and have a very different point of view than real recent immigrants/expats.

Paging Yaliu...
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on December 09, 2018, 07:57:51 AM
So much for the theory that housing is not a leading indicator ...

Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..

But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on December 09, 2018, 09:28:28 AM
So much for the theory that housing is not a leading indicator ...

Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..

But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .

Nope. The stock is more of a value play. The P/E is around 8.31 according to yahoo finance.

I wouldn’t bottom fish home builder stocks.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Halos on December 09, 2018, 03:38:16 PM
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings. :P

How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

Chinese P2P lending then into Bitcoin. Both have imploded, and now you see articles coming out of Seattle, etc how the foreign money has dried up. We're running on fumes at this point.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 09, 2018, 06:04:47 PM
How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

It's still legal to transfer money out of china , but it has gotten much more restrictive. Prior to July of 2017, each Chinese person can legally transfer 50k USD every year out of China legally.  Now every transaction over 7k needs to be reported and triggers an automatic audit.
Since 2017, you also have to file extra paperwork in which you have to specify that this fund is for not being used to buy foreign real estate,stock,life insurance etc or face massive fines and have accounts frozen.

Majority of Chinese FCBs use illegal underground money services. The cost is high tho. We've heard as high as 25%.

Most common illegal ways to do it yourself

1) Obtain Chinese Hong Kong status. Hong Kong accounts are much less regulated.
2) Move it bit by bit by involving friends and family. You can still legally move foreign currency in small transaction, up to total 50k a year, to 4 or less foreign account and still avoid an audit. If you have 4 friends/family with US accounts and each of them have 4 friends/family with foreign accounts, you can move 1 million out of china per year. This part is obviously illegal.
3) A lot of Chinese bank issued debit cards that do not have foreign transaction limits. A lot of people buy luxury goods in US and resell or return them for cash.
4) Fly the cash out. The legal limit is 5k USD when you fly into US but people often risk it by putting more cash in checked luggage.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 12, 2018, 02:13:12 AM
I've mentioned this before but I'm not worried about a lull in Chinese FCBs, Irvine has plenty of other FCBs.

In fact... there is a particular Caucasian demographic that keeps Woodbridge prices amazingly high.

Woodbridge prices are amazingly high compared to? I saw a few in Woodbridge that barely appreciated from 2014.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4-Woodspring-92604/unit-47/home/5510109

Feb 2014 850k bought
Nov 2018 898k sold

The owner probably barely broke even or maybe even took a small loss when you factor in the commission and transaction cost.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: shahshah on December 12, 2018, 07:44:51 AM
this is a poor example. look deeper. i have a friend with three SFR in woodbridge purchased purchase after that in 2016, 2017 and 2017. all of the have appreciated quite well.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 12, 2018, 08:49:21 AM
This what I would refer to as, using the negatives environments in rates, as it moves higher to negotiate for favorable pricing for buyers. Using to seasonal slow down and national slow down to gain the upper hands on pricing. Using the negativity of owning to get better pricing. Clearly, this buyers know what they are doing.

Congrat!!! The values of Irvine homes are still there. No dooms days scenario here. On the other hands, looks at what happening in the equity market. Large institutions pulling and cashing out in droves. Where are they putting that money for safe keeping?  :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 12, 2018, 02:20:52 PM
This what I would refer to as, using the negatives environments in rates, as it moves higher to negotiate for favorable pricing for buyers. Using to seasonal slow down and national slow down to gain the upper hands on pricing. Using the negativity of owning to get better pricing. Clearly, this buyers know what they are doing.

Im a bit unclear about what you are saying here.   Are you suggesting higher interest rates will put downward pressures on home prices? 
Also what do you mean by "using seasonal slow down and national slowdown to gain upper hands on pricing?"  Are you suggesting the buyer bought during a slow season and when housing is slowing all over the country to get a better deal on this house?
How do you know if the buyer used "negativity of owning" to get better pricing.  Do you know the buyer of that house?

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 12, 2018, 04:14:50 PM
this is a poor example. look deeper. i have a friend with three SFR in woodbridge purchased purchase after that in 2016, 2017 and 2017. all of the have appreciated quite well.

I am sure SFR in woodbridge did better than the attached home I posted. But that's the norm everywhere. Woodbridge also has much more attached homes than SFRs. Price of attached homes are not irrelevant.

I was questioning IHO's claim that woodbrige has a particular Caucasian demographic that keeps Woodbridge prices "amazingly high"

Which is why I asked what he was comparing woodbridge to. From what I've seen, Woodbridge has under-performed every surrounding villages except Walnut/El Camino.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 12, 2018, 04:44:50 PM
This what I would refer to as, using the negatives environments in rates, as it moves higher to negotiate for favorable pricing for buyers. Using to seasonal slow down and national slow down to gain the upper hands on pricing. Using the negativity of owning to get better pricing. Clearly, this buyers know what they are doing.

Im a bit unclear about what you are saying here.   Are you suggesting higher interest rates will put downward pressures on home prices? 
Also what do you mean by "using seasonal slow down and national slowdown to gain upper hands on pricing?"  Are you suggesting the buyer bought during a slow season and when housing is slowing all over the country to get a better deal on this house?
How do you know if the buyer used "negativity of owning" to get better pricing.  Do you know the buyer of that house?

It mean to get what you want for the least competition and rooms for price improvements. Or in your case just wait, until the herds rushing in again and compete for the house that you want.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on December 12, 2018, 04:58:00 PM
Is that a valid reason to buy a house now. To avoid the multiple offers? But how long will that be until multiple offers situation is very common.

It almost sounds like the excuse that someone said that media created the housing slowdown.  ;)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on December 12, 2018, 05:15:19 PM
This what I would refer to as, using the negatives environments in rates, as it moves higher to negotiate for favorable pricing for buyers. Using to seasonal slow down and national slow down to gain the upper hands on pricing. Using the negativity of owning to get better pricing. Clearly, this buyers know what they are doing.

Im a bit unclear about what you are saying here.   Are you suggesting higher interest rates will put downward pressures on home prices? 
Also what do you mean by "using seasonal slow down and national slowdown to gain upper hands on pricing?"  Are you suggesting the buyer bought during a slow season and when housing is slowing all over the country to get a better deal on this house?
How do you know if the buyer used "negativity of owning" to get better pricing.  Do you know the buyer of that house?

It mean to get what you want for the least competition and rooms for price improvements. Or in your case just wait, until the herds rushing in again and compete for the house that you want.

Oh OK, so you mean that this buyer took market conditions and bargained the seller down to a price he wanted?  Huh, what a concept.  Also I had no idea that prices would drop if interest rates went up until you pointed that out.  Who would have ever thunk?!? 

I particularly like the comment about how the "buyer knows what he/she is doing" because the buyer used "negativity of owning".  WTF? 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on December 12, 2018, 07:12:55 PM
Guys , the state of things is — we fluctuate between FOMO / greed and FEAR . Right now is the FEAR  phase but once FOMO kicks in , some buyers will look back on this period as when they could have had a lot more choice and negotiating power .

The full impact of personal situations given tax laws won’t actually be known until you actual end up filing those taxes - people think they know and can project but until you sign the line and actually look at the final taxes , the psychological impact is still TBD.  we will see how market shapes for next summer at that time.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on December 12, 2018, 07:18:48 PM
Tax software has been out. So you can see.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 13, 2018, 07:12:22 AM
this is a poor example. look deeper. i have a friend with three SFR in woodbridge purchased purchase after that in 2016, 2017 and 2017. all of the have appreciated quite well.

I am sure SFR in woodbridge did better than the attached home I posted. But that's the norm everywhere. Woodbridge also has much more attached homes than SFRs. Price of attached homes are not irrelevant.

I was questioning IHO's claim that woodbrige has a particular Caucasian demographic that keeps Woodbridge prices "amazingly high"

As shahshah said, you have to look deeper. And yes, I'm more referring to SFRs, if you compare size/age to other hoods in Irvine, you will be "amazed" at the prices... at least I was.

We used to live in Woodbridge, and when I went to see what homes were going for (esp 3CWG), I was "amazed". And while Woodbridge does have many attached homes, some of those are high because of proximity to the flakes.

Quote
Which is why I asked what he was comparing woodbridge to. From what I've seen, Woodbridge has under-performed every surrounding villages except Walnut/El Camino.

Not sure how you are getting that conclusion. What were you looking at that supports that "under-performance" because I've been tracking Woodbridge for the last 10-15 years and for SFRs, they seem to skew higher than like-age areas like Northwood, Deerfield and Westpark I. Just like Irvine, central location and the flakes provide a premium. You could find several 3CGW homes in Northwood during the trough in the low $800ks, much harder to do that in Woodbridge.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 14, 2018, 09:17:03 PM
Not sure how you are getting that conclusion. What were you looking at that supports that "under-performance" because I've been tracking Woodbridge for the last 10-15 years and for SFRs, they seem to skew higher than like-age areas like Northwood, Deerfield and Westpark I. Just like Irvine, central location and the flakes provide a premium. You could find several 3CGW homes in Northwood during the trough in the low $800ks, much harder to do that in Woodbridge.
Deerfield is part of El Camino which I already said was under-performing Woodbridge.
Westpark has performed slightly better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
I was comparing Woodbridge to its surrounding villages. Northwood is not a surrounding village. Not nitpicking but this is significant because I know a lot of people like us who work near SNA would not consider anything east of the 5.
Every village west of the 5 except for Walnut/El Camino has done better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 17, 2018, 09:10:00 AM
Not sure how you are getting that conclusion. What were you looking at that supports that "under-performance" because I've been tracking Woodbridge for the last 10-15 years and for SFRs, they seem to skew higher than like-age areas like Northwood, Deerfield and Westpark I. Just like Irvine, central location and the flakes provide a premium. You could find several 3CGW homes in Northwood during the trough in the low $800ks, much harder to do that in Woodbridge.
Deerfield is part of El Camino which I already said was under-performing Woodbridge.
Westpark has performed slightly better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
I was comparing Woodbridge to its surrounding villages. Northwood is not a surrounding village. Not nitpicking but this is significant because I know a lot of people like us who work near SNA would not consider anything east of the 5.
Every village west of the 5 except for Walnut/El Camino has done better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.

It's not what I've seen.

So I checked Redfin data, these are the averages from lowest to highest based on $/sf and only for neighborhoods adjacent to Woodbridge.

Sold within the last 1 year:

Westpark $758k 3br/2.5ba 1669sf $448/sf
El Camino Real $740k 3br/2ba 1435sf $462/sf
University Park $845k 3br/2ba 1896sf $482/sf
Oak Creek $550k 2br/2ba 1153sf $486/sf
Woodbridge $735k  3br/2.25ba 1471sf $492/sf

Last 3 years:

El Camino Real $700k 3br/2ba 1517sf $425/sf
Westpark $707k 3br/2.5ba 1604sf $443/sf
Oak Creek $540k 2br/2ba 1166sf $455/sf
Woodbridge $670k 3br/2ba 1411sf $464/sf
University Park $787k 3br/2ba 1714sf $468/sf

Of those, Westpark is probably the closest comparison in housing stock, age, and proximity and Woodbridge is higher. I actually expected Uni Park to be higher because of the Uni High school zone but it's only slightly higher in the 3 year and lower in the 1 year.

Since I was only talking about SFRs, I was curious so I did a breakdown by just choosing 'House/4br+' and this is what I got for last 3 years:

University Park $948k 4/2.5 2346sf $412/sf
El Camino Real $878k 4/2.75 2170sf $413/sf
Oak Creek $1.088m 4/3 2648sf $442/sf
Westpark $1.141m 4/3 2490sf $449/sf
Woodbridge $1.186m 4/3 2400sf $481/sf

Surprisingly, Uni Park is the lowest here... but Woodbridge is significantly higher for the last 3 years for 4br SFRs so the data seems to agree with my observations.

I just know that there are several non-3CWG SFRs that have sold in Woodbridge way higher than I would expect.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: shahshah on December 18, 2018, 10:48:07 AM
Not sure how you are getting that conclusion. What were you looking at that supports that "under-performance" because I've been tracking Woodbridge for the last 10-15 years and for SFRs, they seem to skew higher than like-age areas like Northwood, Deerfield and Westpark I. Just like Irvine, central location and the flakes provide a premium. You could find several 3CGW homes in Northwood during the trough in the low $800ks, much harder to do that in Woodbridge.
Deerfield is part of El Camino which I already said was under-performing Woodbridge.
Westpark has performed slightly better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
I was comparing Woodbridge to its surrounding villages. Northwood is not a surrounding village. Not nitpicking but this is significant because I know a lot of people like us who work near SNA would not consider anything east of the 5.
Every village west of the 5 except for Walnut/El Camino has done better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.

Whole alot of blah blah blah and no back up. At least "from what I've seen".
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 18, 2018, 12:52:38 PM
It's not what I've seen.

So I checked Redfin data, these are the averages from lowest to highest based on $/sf and only for neighborhoods adjacent to Woodbridge.

Sold within the last 1 year:

Westpark $758k 3br/2.5ba 1669sf $448/sf
El Camino Real $740k 3br/2ba 1435sf $462/sf
University Park $845k 3br/2ba 1896sf $482/sf
Oak Creek $550k 2br/2ba 1153sf $486/sf
Woodbridge $735k  3br/2.25ba 1471sf $492/sf

Last 3 years:

El Camino Real $700k 3br/2ba 1517sf $425/sf
Westpark $707k 3br/2.5ba 1604sf $443/sf
Oak Creek $540k 2br/2ba 1166sf $455/sf
Woodbridge $670k 3br/2ba 1411sf $464/sf
University Park $787k 3br/2ba 1714sf $468/sf

Of those, Westpark is probably the closest comparison in housing stock, age, and proximity and Woodbridge is higher. I actually expected Uni Park to be higher because of the Uni High school zone but it's only slightly higher in the 3 year and lower in the 1 year.

Since I was only talking about SFRs, I was curious so I did a breakdown by just choosing 'House/4br+' and this is what I got for last 3 years:

University Park $948k 4/2.5 2346sf $412/sf
El Camino Real $878k 4/2.75 2170sf $413/sf
Oak Creek $1.088m 4/3 2648sf $442/sf
Westpark $1.141m 4/3 2490sf $449/sf
Woodbridge $1.186m 4/3 2400sf $481/sf

Surprisingly, Uni Park is the lowest here... but Woodbridge is significantly higher for the last 3 years for 4br SFRs so the data seems to agree with my observations.

I just know that there are several non-3CWG SFRs that have sold in Woodbridge way higher than I would expect.

Thanks for posting the actual data. It's definitely surprising to me especially the Uni Park part.

Now that you proved Woodbridge prices are amazingly high, how about the Caucasian part? I never lived in Woodbridge but I see plenty of non Caucasians when I do go there.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 18, 2018, 12:55:29 PM
It's not what I've seen.

So I checked Redfin data, these are the averages from lowest to highest based on $/sf and only for neighborhoods adjacent to Woodbridge.

Sold within the last 1 year:

Westpark $758k 3br/2.5ba 1669sf $448/sf
El Camino Real $740k 3br/2ba 1435sf $462/sf
University Park $845k 3br/2ba 1896sf $482/sf
Oak Creek $550k 2br/2ba 1153sf $486/sf
Woodbridge $735k  3br/2.25ba 1471sf $492/sf

Last 3 years:

El Camino Real $700k 3br/2ba 1517sf $425/sf
Westpark $707k 3br/2.5ba 1604sf $443/sf
Oak Creek $540k 2br/2ba 1166sf $455/sf
Woodbridge $670k 3br/2ba 1411sf $464/sf
University Park $787k 3br/2ba 1714sf $468/sf

Of those, Westpark is probably the closest comparison in housing stock, age, and proximity and Woodbridge is higher. I actually expected Uni Park to be higher because of the Uni High school zone but it's only slightly higher in the 3 year and lower in the 1 year.

Since I was only talking about SFRs, I was curious so I did a breakdown by just choosing 'House/4br+' and this is what I got for last 3 years:

University Park $948k 4/2.5 2346sf $412/sf
El Camino Real $878k 4/2.75 2170sf $413/sf
Oak Creek $1.088m 4/3 2648sf $442/sf
Westpark $1.141m 4/3 2490sf $449/sf
Woodbridge $1.186m 4/3 2400sf $481/sf

Surprisingly, Uni Park is the lowest here... but Woodbridge is significantly higher for the last 3 years for 4br SFRs so the data seems to agree with my observations.

I just know that there are several non-3CWG SFRs that have sold in Woodbridge way higher than I would expect.

Thanks for posting the actual data. It's definitely surprising to me especially the Uni Park part.

Now that you proved Woodbridge prices are amazingly high, how about the Caucasian part? I never lived in Woodbridge but I see plenty of non Caucasians when I do go there.

Here you go.

https://statisticalatlas.com/neighborhood/California/Irvine/Woodbridge/Race-and-Ethnicity
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 18, 2018, 12:58:14 PM

Whole alot of blah blah blah and no back up. At least "from what I've seen".

Did you bring anything valuable to the discussion?

i have a friend with three SFR in woodbridge purchased purchase after that in 2016, 2017 and 2017. all of the have appreciated quite well.

You did not even bother to back up your own post with any data. At least I posted an actual transaction with a valid Redfin link.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 18, 2018, 01:00:02 PM

Whole alot of blah blah blah and no back up. At least "from what I've seen".

Did you bring anything valuable to the discussion?

i have a friend with three SFR in woodbridge purchased purchase after that in 2016, 2017 and 2017. all of the have appreciated quite well.

You did not even bother to back up your own post with any data. At least I posted an actual transaction with a valid Redfin link.

Would just be easier to link the trends for Woodbridge:

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Woodbridge-Irvine/783/market-trends/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 18, 2018, 01:15:58 PM
Here you go.

https://statisticalatlas.com/neighborhood/California/Irvine/Woodbridge/Race-and-Ethnicity

Thanks for the link. It shows that Woodbridge is 58% White. (Uni Park is actually the highest at 65%)

It's higher than Irvine city average but not extreme. Certainly not extreme like Orchard Hill with only 24% whites.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 18, 2018, 02:26:35 PM
@IC: Whoah, thanks for the link, I didn't know Trulia broke their trends down by neighborhood. That's brings a whole new aspect to #VillageWars. :)

@kenkoko: I'm wondering if they are counting Persian/Middle East in their 'White' category... if so, that would make sense why Uni Park is so high. As for the particular segment of non-FCB caucasians that I'm referring to that lend to that Woodbridge price bubbleness, if you ever lived there... you would know.

This is why I feel that personal experience does have even as much value as actual data because data may not show the particulars (although IC may be able to find a site that breaks down that 'White' segment to reveal this mystery demographic).

But I do value your own observations, which hoods and what kind of product did you see that were performing better than Woodbridge?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 21, 2018, 03:05:42 PM
We are looking at 850k-950k for a 1031 exchange. Looked at pretty much all the villages older than Woodbury.
The homes we saw in Woodbridge, around this price range, were mostly large attached homes with 3-4 bedrooms. These Woodbridge homes that we saw did trade at slightly lower $/sqft compared to what we saw in Uni Park, Oak Creek. West park homes we saw tend to be smaller in SQFT leading to slightly higher sqft than Woodbridge.

It was never apples to apples comparison. I know your data would indicate otherwise but it really did not seem to us that Woodbridge was trading at any sort of premium.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 27, 2018, 11:28:16 AM
I know your data would indicate otherwise but it really did not seem to us that Woodbridge was trading at any sort of premium.

It's okay, I'm not going to be hard on you about what the data says because I do understand that personal experience can have different results.

That's actually why I looked it up because I thought what I saw may have been different from what the market was doing. Some of Westpark I SFRs were built around the same time as Woodbridge's newer hoods, and from what I saw, those same floorplans tend to trade higher for Woodbridge. As I've said, it depends on what stock you are looking for and that usually defines your perception of what pricing is.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on December 28, 2018, 12:55:00 PM
Prices in Quail Hill has dropped a lot in the past 6 months. This one just closed at 910k. The exact same model were closing at 980k - 1M just 6 months ago.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/103-Canopy-92603/home/5944496

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on December 28, 2018, 01:10:23 PM
Prices in Quail Hill has dropped a lot in the past 6 months. This one just closed at 910k. The exact same model were closing at 980k - 1M just 6 months ago.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/103-Canopy-92603/home/5944496

Falling knife?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCAgentGold on January 20, 2019, 01:35:43 PM
Its here. All the homebuilders have had massive layoffs..... 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinehomeseeker on January 20, 2019, 05:27:38 PM
Wow..that Quail Hill condo that sold at 910k was such a bargain i would think. That detached condo had so many nice upgrades.  I am thinking that owner put on market kinda late in the summer cycle.  I just hope that that price of 910k is an anomaly and not a trend.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: shahshah on January 20, 2019, 06:13:48 PM
I'm seeing mostly 850k-1100k+ home on the market at present on Redfin for 3bd and 4bd SFR detached resale market not backing to a main road or less than 4000 sqft lot size. Of course outliners in the east part of El camino. That does not seem like any kind of drop off to me?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on January 20, 2019, 06:44:29 PM
Wow..that Quail Hill condo that sold at 910k was such a bargain i would think. That detached condo had so many nice upgrades.  I am thinking that owner put on market kinda late in the summer cycle.  I just hope that that price of 910k is an anomaly and not a trend.

 Been seeing this kind of bargain at different villages this past month.

Cypress Village detached condo sold for 930k. Previous comps were over 1.05mil just 3-4 months ago
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Rockcress-92618/home/112722299#overview

Northpark single story SFR sold for 910k. Previous comps were over 1mil.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/14-Saintsbury-92602/home/5858183#overview

University Park SFR sold for 900k. Previous comp was 980k in september/october
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4601-Green-Tree-Ln-92612/home/4702678#overview

Woodbury detached condo sold for 900k.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Great-Lawn-92620/home/7210911
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on January 20, 2019, 06:48:16 PM
I'm seeing mostly 850k-1100k+ home on the market at present on Redfin for 3bd and 4bd SFR detached resale market not backing to a main road or less than 4000 sqft lot size. Of course outliners in the east part of El camino. That does not seem like any kind of drop off to me?

Because you are looking at the listing prices of unsold homes instead of sold prices. High listing prices from unrealistic sellers are not good indicators of where the market is at.

Just look at the 910k sold home in Quail Hill. The listing price was 1.07 mil  :o
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on April 13, 2019, 10:21:22 PM
Reviving the thread. Any new predictions?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 13, 2019, 10:56:21 PM
Reviving the thread. Any new predictions?

Prices are still down compared to last year's high.
Biggest change is inventory level. April 2018 we had 445 listing. We have 1066 today.
I think we will continue to trend lower.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on April 14, 2019, 06:22:42 AM
Yup.. Also, look at the inventory of other cities.. Seattle is +130% more inventory
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: lnc on April 14, 2019, 03:57:25 PM
Yes, Seattle’s inventory is up 136% from a year ago and the sales is down 7.8%.  Sounds really really bad but if we look closely to the data, the inventory level is still only 2 month of supply.

I believe the overall housing market only cools down from a really hot to a more neutral market.

Look, the economy is still ok, unemployment is at historically low, mortgage rate are dropping back and we have an epic housing shortage going on, I just don’t think there’s much a chance of a significant housing downturn ahead. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on April 14, 2019, 04:41:56 PM
Wait couple years
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on April 14, 2019, 06:12:11 PM
Hoping we dont see a crash in the oc housing but a slow decline like 1989-1993, similar to that of 2019-2023.

this is the time frame i was talking about before that there is hurry for the buyers.....

the marker will shift to the buyer's market in irvine and the deal will get only sweeter as you wait. this is the time for buyers to come out and look for deals. again, there is no rush... and the rates will continue to fall... if you are lucky, the 10 year may even fall below 1.6%. Soon it will be the buyers who will shine in Irvine as they will regain control.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on April 14, 2019, 07:32:39 PM
Which places do you expect the crash to be in?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on April 14, 2019, 07:50:06 PM
OCLuvr, Are you asking me about Micro (zip codes in OC?) or Macro (across the U.S)

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/10vhbz5kdkg1koz/fred.jpg?raw=1)

The unemployment in the OC will be a leading indicator. Once you see OC unemployment reach 5%, even "AAA" grade real estate assets like Irvine will start to correct. 

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/oovrlhkyryggyj6/sanfran.jpg?raw=1)

You can see that the San Francisco Market has already started its decline. You may think that Bay Area real estate market is the leading indicator and that the LA market will soon follow.

Lately (starting from Jan 1 2019) ... I've been getting a lot of interest from residents living in zip codes of Cupertino, Palo Alto, Mountainview, Milpitas, etc, not specifically to purchase investment properties in Johns Creek and Alpharetta, but physically relocating their family and their businesses in North Atlanta from the Bay Area. Recently, one my clients sold his home in Fullerton and purchased in the newer gated community in Johns Creek plus a very nice Hi Tech Office Flex Space in the Technology Park. He is a tech entrepreneur and when I asked him why he decided to make such a bold move, his reason was escaping the high cost of living and providing a new and different lifestyle for his family.

Which places do you expect the crash to be in?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on April 14, 2019, 08:48:09 PM
Please Share your thoughts on both micro and US level.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on April 15, 2019, 03:42:24 PM
Hoping we dont see a crash in the oc housing but a slow decline like 1989-1993, similar to that of 2019-2023.

this is the time frame i was talking about before that there is hurry for the buyers.....

the marker will shift to the buyer's market in irvine and the deal will get only sweeter as you wait. this is the time for buyers to come out and look for deals. again, there is no rush... and the rates will continue to fall... if you are lucky, the 10 year may even fall below 1.6%. Soon it will be the buyers who will shine in Irvine as they will regain control.

Panda seems like you have had a change of heart in your prediction for Irvine.  Half a year ago, you were singing a different tune.  What changed your mind? 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on April 15, 2019, 03:58:55 PM
Meccos,

I didn't see much change in 2018 vs 2017 data, but starting to see some change in data beginning of this year. I don't think we will see a real estate crisis like 2008-2009, but a slow decline of 10-15% in the next 4 years is possible. Again, I do still think that the Irvine housing market will decline less if the recession hits. Sort of like holding a high quality "AAA" Grade Bond Fund. This will give an opportunity for the buyers who have been on the sidelines for a while to enter the market in Irvine. I would advise the Irvine buyers to continue to wait if possible. The 30 year cycle puts us in 1989, which is about where I think we are at in the cycle at the moment.

Hoping we dont see a crash in the oc housing but a slow decline like 1989-1993, similar to that of 2019-2023.

this is the time frame i was talking about before that there is hurry for the buyers.....

the marker will shift to the buyer's market in irvine and the deal will get only sweeter as you wait. this is the time for buyers to come out and look for deals. again, there is no rush... and the rates will continue to fall... if you are lucky, the 10 year may even fall below 1.6%. Soon it will be the buyers who will shine in Irvine as they will regain control.

Panda seems like you have had a change of heart in your prediction for Irvine.  Half a year ago, you were singing a different tune.  What changed your mind? 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 15, 2019, 04:06:05 PM
Meccos,

I didn't see much change in 2018 vs 2017 data, but starting to see some change in data beginning of this year. I don't think we will see a real estate crisis like 2008-2009, but a slow decline of 10-15% in the next 4 years is possible. Again, I do still think that the Irvine housing market will decline less if the recession hits. Sort of like holding a high quality "AAA" Grade Bond Fund. This will give an opportunity for the buyers who have been on the sidelines for a while to purchase in Irvine. I would advise the Irvine buyers to continue to wait if possible. The 30 year cycle puts us in 1989, which is about where I think we are at in the cycle at the moment.

Hoping we dont see a crash in the oc housing but a slow decline like 1989-1993, similar to that of 2019-2023.

this is the time frame i was talking about before that there is hurry for the buyers.....

the marker will shift to the buyer's market in irvine and the deal will get only sweeter as you wait. this is the time for buyers to come out and look for deals. again, there is no rush... and the rates will continue to fall... if you are lucky, the 10 year may even fall below 1.6%. Soon it will be the buyers who will shine in Irvine as they will regain control.

Panda seems like you have had a change of heart in your prediction for Irvine.  Half a year ago, you were singing a different tune.  What changed your mind? 

I am going to say no because

1) most of the growth in Irvine has been fueled by high-equity/low fixed rate purchases.  Unless there is a massive employment drop, I don't see the market going down.

2)  There was a fundamental shift in employment in OC in the late 1980s/early 1990s including the closure of military bases and the aerospace industry leaving the area.

3)  The mortgage market and Savings and Loan scandal were a key reason why OC got hit hard (to the point of BK)...there is a fundamentally different structure in OC demographics now.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on April 15, 2019, 04:14:07 PM
I posted an unemployment chart in OC currently hovering about 3%. You can see this chart does not move straight horizontal line, but more like a wave. Once the unemployment % surpasses 5%, you will see a shift.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 15, 2019, 04:19:15 PM
I posted an unemployment chart in OC currently hovering about 3%. You can see this chart does not move straight horizontal line, but more like a wave. Once the unemployment % surpasses 5%, you will see a shift.

Both 1980/1990 and 2008/2012 downturns were global in nature...arguably 1980/1990 was a mini version of 2008/2012 with OC being hit harder because of its reliance on military/aerospace.   OC is now in the driver seat with respect to future jobs because world is reliant on technology and things like AI.

Conversely, I am interested to see how the downturn in telecommunication affects a place like Alpharetta, who is super reliant on Verison, AT&T, and Comcast...even a company like ADP. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: marmott on April 16, 2019, 09:36:46 PM
Just heard this today: https://www.marketplace.org/2019/04/16/economy/tax-overhauls-impact-housing-market-its-complicated

I have looked for the articles/studies they quote in the piece but are they right to say that the last 2 times rates increased it had less of an impact on house sales?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 08:35:45 AM
Just heard this today: https://www.marketplace.org/2019/04/16/economy/tax-overhauls-impact-housing-market-its-complicated

I have looked for the articles/studies they quote in the piece but are they right to say that the last 2 times rates increased it had less of an impact on house sales?

You do have fatigue in the market and banks still have really tight lending practices right now.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on April 17, 2019, 09:49:14 AM

You do have fatigue in the market and banks still have really tight lending practices right now.

What is considered "really tight lending practices"?  Compared to the NINJA days, sure its tight, but that is relative.  I believe lending is not tight at all.  In fact I feel like its become fairly loose.

If the tax overhaul expires in 4 years, will SALT deductions come back? 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 09:51:12 AM

You do have fatigue in the market and banks still have really tight lending practices right now.

What is considered "really tight lending practices"?  Compared to the NINJA days, sure its tight, but that is relative.  I believe lending is not tight at all.  In fact I feel like its become fairly loose.

If the tax overhaul expires in 4 years, will SALT deductions come back?

Lending for top tier borrowers is decent but you still need to go through a lot of hoops.  Lending is super tight for first time buyers and medium/average borrowers.

https://www.creditrepair.com/blog/uncategorized/fed-study-shows-lending-restrictions-still-too-tight/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 17, 2019, 11:47:45 AM

You do have fatigue in the market and banks still have really tight lending practices right now.

What is considered "really tight lending practices"?  Compared to the NINJA days, sure its tight, but that is relative.  I believe lending is not tight at all.  In fact I feel like its become fairly loose.

If the tax overhaul expires in 4 years, will SALT deductions come back?

Lending for top tier borrowers is decent but you still need to go through a lot of hoops.  Lending is super tight for first time buyers and medium/average borrowers.

https://www.creditrepair.com/blog/uncategorized/fed-study-shows-lending-restrictions-still-too-tight/

+1  Underwriters are VERY thorough going through the entire the underwriting process.  Even A+ borrowers have to provide letters of explanations and updated information to get their loans approved.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Snowleopard on April 17, 2019, 07:29:43 PM
When (or) do you think prices will go down in the Newport Beach area in the next couple years? Is there a reason to wait or should I purchase now? I am looking to buy near the Lido Marina Village/Newport Peninsula area or Lido Isle. There isn’t much inventory and everything is very pricey. Thank you for your input.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 08:29:15 PM
When (or) do you think prices will go down in the Newport Beach area in the next couple years? Is there a reason to wait or should I purchase now? I am looking to buy near the Lido Marina Village/Newport Peninsula area or Lido Isle. There isn’t much inventory and everything is very pricey. Thank you for your input.

I am pretty sure NB is about as price proof as you can get for the exactly reason you stated.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 18, 2019, 12:59:39 AM
I don't think we will see a real estate crisis like 2008-2009, but a slow decline of 10-15% in the next 4 years is possible. Again, I do still think that the Irvine housing market will decline less if the recession hits. Sort of like holding a high quality "AAA" Grade Bond Fund. This will give an opportunity for the buyers who have been on the sidelines for a while to enter the market in Irvine. I would advise the Irvine buyers to continue to wait if possible.

I agree with most of that. I do wonder what you mean when you said the Irvine housing market will decline less if the recession hits. Do you mean in comparison to the overall OC market? Have you taken into consideration of Irvine's low homeownership rate? For reference Yorba Lina is high at 82%, Mission Viejo is 74%, and Irvine is really low at 48%.

High homeonership rate helps to soften recession hits.

To me, a big factor that helped Irvine RE soften the last recession hit was having a lot of foreign investors and a big chuck of that is Chinese FCBs. Last US recession, the chinese economy was booming. Not so this time around.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 18, 2019, 07:42:40 AM
I agree with most of that. I do wonder what you mean when you said the Irvine housing market will decline less if the recession hits. Do you mean in comparison to the overall OC market? Have you taken into consideration of Irvine's low homeownership rate? For reference Yorba Lina is high at 82%, Mission Viejo is 74%, and Irvine is really low at 48%.

High homeonership rate helps to soften recession hits.

I'm assuming these percentages where the same 10 years ago and Irvine fared better than both MV and YL. I think it depends on who owns the homes which brings me to your next point:

Quote
To me, a big factor that helped Irvine RE soften the last recession hit was having a lot of foreign investors and a big chuck of that is Chinese FCBs. Last US recession, the chinese economy was booming. Not so this time around.

I think too much focus is put on just Chinese FCBs. Irvine has plenty of FCBs that are not just from China... and... there is large domestic demographic that stay put in Irvine generationally.

It's a mix that is almost unique compared to other high value cities like Newport Beach.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 18, 2019, 04:00:23 PM

I'm assuming these percentages where the same 10 years ago and Irvine fared better than both MV and YL. I think it depends on who owns the homes which brings me to your next point:

Your assumption is incorrect. It's not the same 10 years ago. Irvine Homeownership rate was 9-10% higher in 2009. Newport Beach and Yorba Linda has stayed almost exactly the same.

It really does not matter whether Irvine investors are Chinese FCBs or not. Fact is Irvine homeownership rate has steadily declined for decades to now at 48%. Majority of Irvine homes are occupied by renters.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 18, 2019, 04:03:32 PM

I'm assuming these percentages where the same 10 years ago and Irvine fared better than both MV and YL. I think it depends on who owns the homes which brings me to your next point:

Your assumption is incorrect. It's not the same 10 years ago. Irvine Homeownership rate was 9-10% higher in 2009. Newport Beach and Yorba Linda has stayed almost exactly the same.

It really does not matter whether Irvine investors are Chinese FCBs or not. Fact is Irvine homeownership rate has steadily declined for decades to now at 48%. Majority of Irvine homes are occupied by renters.

Isn’t this because of Irvine just choosing to build more rentals ?

Look at percentages of SFRs that are occupied by renters in Irvine versus those in the other areas and maybe the difference won’t be as stark
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 19, 2019, 07:21:30 AM

I'm assuming these percentages where the same 10 years ago and Irvine fared better than both MV and YL. I think it depends on who owns the homes which brings me to your next point:

Your assumption is incorrect. It's not the same 10 years ago. Irvine Homeownership rate was 9-10% higher in 2009. Newport Beach and Yorba Linda has stayed almost exactly the same.

Not sure why you mention Newport Beach when you originally brought up Mission Viejo. 9-10% decline is nominal to me. And that still doesn't go around the fact that Irvine still did better than MV and YL at a 58% ownership rate 10 years ago (where are you getting these numbers?).

Quote
It really does not matter whether Irvine investors are Chinese FCBs or not. Fact is Irvine homeownership rate has steadily declined for decades to now at 48%. Majority of Irvine homes are occupied by renters.

So if it doesn't really matter, why did you point Chinese FCBs out as a talking point?

I disagree with you about owner-occupied percentage vs rentals. As I said, it's the stability of the owner you have to worry about. If half of the rentals are owned by people who are just as stable as the owner occupieds in other cities... why would that be a concern?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 19, 2019, 07:41:46 AM
Fresh data on Housing starts:

Northeast: -28.3% Y/Y
Midwest: -28.0% Y/Y
South: -4.1% Y/Y
West: -19.5% Y/Y
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 19, 2019, 09:16:47 AM
Fresh data on Housing starts:

Northeast: -28.3% Y/Y
Midwest: -28.0% Y/Y
South: -4.1% Y/Y
West: -19.5% Y/Y


This is a dramatic drop in Housing Starts data in the big picture. Irvine does not follows. We continue to see housings and lands develop on THE RANCH. Remarkable and resilience in the big picture for Irvine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on April 19, 2019, 09:24:03 AM
Fresh data on Housing starts:

Northeast: -28.3% Y/Y
Midwest: -28.0% Y/Y
South: -4.1% Y/Y
West: -19.5% Y/Y

Yup. Let’s say I am still seeing price reductions across select cities that I chose to look at in the region you mentioned.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 19, 2019, 11:27:42 AM

I'm assuming these percentages where the same 10 years ago and Irvine fared better than both MV and YL. I think it depends on who owns the homes which brings me to your next point:

Your assumption is incorrect. It's not the same 10 years ago. Irvine Homeownership rate was 9-10% higher in 2009. Newport Beach and Yorba Linda has stayed almost exactly the same.

Not sure why you mention Newport Beach when you originally brought up Mission Viejo. 9-10% decline is nominal to me. And that still doesn't go around the fact that Irvine still did better than MV and YL at a 58% ownership rate 10 years ago (where are you getting these numbers?).

Quote
It really does not matter whether Irvine investors are Chinese FCBs or not. Fact is Irvine homeownership rate has steadily declined for decades to now at 48%. Majority of Irvine homes are occupied by renters.

So if it doesn't really matter, why did you point Chinese FCBs out as a talking point?

I disagree with you about owner-occupied percentage vs rentals. As I said, it's the stability of the owner you have to worry about. If half of the rentals are owned by people who are just as stable as the owner occupieds in other cities... why would that be a concern?

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/yorba-linda-ca/#housing

Here is the Yorba Linda stats link. You can easily change cities in the menu to compare. You mentioned Newport Beach first in your response, naturally I followed up on it.

How is it a talking point? Chinese FCB to me is a big factor to Irvine price stability, you disagree. I only said Chinese FCB did not matter in the context of homeonwership % (renter % vs owner %) I did not think it matter whether the investor is a Chinese FCB or a Persian FCB. Bottom line, it's an investor not a homeowner. Investor will more likely sell when the market tanks more than a homeowner.

Irvine is a young city with resident median age of 34. Irvine medium household income is below 100k. I brought up this point earlier in the thread. Irvine does not have the median household income to propel RE much further than current price level. FCBs helped prop up Irvine price to current level.

I have the same outlook on Irvine RE as Panda. We are likely to trend down so people still on the sidelines should wait as long as possible. We are already 10 years into this recovery/expansion. Now is not the time to jump in. Plenty of signs of a slowdown / recession coming.


Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 19, 2019, 12:19:23 PM
How is it a talking point? Chinese FCB to me is a big factor to Irvine price stability, you disagree. I only said Chinese FCB did not matter in the context of homeonwership % (renter % vs owner %) I did not think it matter whether the investor is a Chinese FCB or a Persian FCB. Bottom line, it's an investor not a homeowner. Investor will more likely sell when the market tanks more than a homeowner.

Why is that? If rents are still good, ie cashflow positive, why would an investor sell?

Quote
Irvine is a young city with resident median age of 34. Irvine medium household income is below 100k. I brought up this point earlier in the thread. Irvine does not have the median household income to propel RE much further than current price level. FCBs helped prop up Irvine price to current level.

This has been said many times but you cannot rely on any census for Irvine's medium household income. Additionally the money that supports Irvine pricing isn't based on traditional income. You even said it yourself in the same paragraph... FCBs. There are also seniors, students, etc whose "income" will not be reflected properly.

Quote
I have the same outlook on Irvine RE as Panda. We are likely to trend down so people still on the sidelines should wait as long as possible. We are already 10 years into this recovery/expansion. Now is not the time to jump in. Plenty of signs of a slowdown / recession coming.

Panda has always been a downer when it comes to Irvine real estate. On the other hand, he thinks Johns Creek will never go bad. :)

Some people can't wait... but it sound like you think Irvine real estate is going to drop even more from here? How much more 10%? 20%? Not even Panda has made that type of prediction.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 19, 2019, 12:23:18 PM
How is it a talking point? Chinese FCB to me is a big factor to Irvine price stability, you disagree. I only said Chinese FCB did not matter in the context of homeonwership % (renter % vs owner %) I did not think it matter whether the investor is a Chinese FCB or a Persian FCB. Bottom line, it's an investor not a homeowner. Investor will more likely sell when the market tanks more than a homeowner.

Disagree...I don't know about Persian FCB but Chinese FCBs don't care about a 10-20% drop because they were not in the market for gains.  They just wanted to solidify their RMB in US real estate.  They are not looking for return. 

If prices fall 10-20%, they're more likely to just hold on it.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 19, 2019, 12:53:43 PM
How is it a talking point? Chinese FCB to me is a big factor to Irvine price stability, you disagree. I only said Chinese FCB did not matter in the context of homeonwership % (renter % vs owner %) I did not think it matter whether the investor is a Chinese FCB or a Persian FCB. Bottom line, it's an investor not a homeowner. Investor will more likely sell when the market tanks more than a homeowner.

Disagree...I don't know about Persian FCB but Chinese FCBs don't care about a 10-20% drop because they were not in the market for gains.  They just wanted to solidify their RMB in US real estate.  They are not looking for return. 

If prices fall 10-20%, they're more likely to just hold on it.

Right, Chinese especially foreign FCB, purchased and moved money to Irvine real estate for keeping their money out of China. Those homes have been sitting empty for 5 years now, those that I tracked. And occasionally comes for visit and off they go again.  Makes little difference to them in the next few years if market goes up or down.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: lnc on April 19, 2019, 01:09:09 PM
Fresh data on Housing starts:

Northeast: -28.3% Y/Y
Midwest: -28.0% Y/Y
South: -4.1% Y/Y
West: -19.5% Y/Y

All I see is tightening of inventory and upward pressure on home prices.   :)



Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 19, 2019, 02:04:21 PM
How is it a talking point? Chinese FCB to me is a big factor to Irvine price stability, you disagree. I only said Chinese FCB did not matter in the context of homeonwership % (renter % vs owner %) I did not think it matter whether the investor is a Chinese FCB or a Persian FCB. Bottom line, it's an investor not a homeowner. Investor will more likely sell when the market tanks more than a homeowner.

Why is that? If rents are still good, ie cashflow positive, why would an investor sell?

Quote
Irvine is a young city with resident median age of 34. Irvine medium household income is below 100k. I brought up this point earlier in the thread. Irvine does not have the median household income to propel RE much further than current price level. FCBs helped prop up Irvine price to current level.

This has been said many times but you cannot rely on any census for Irvine's medium household income. Additionally the money that supports Irvine pricing isn't based on traditional income. You even said it yourself in the same paragraph... FCBs. There are also seniors, students, etc whose "income" will not be reflected properly.

Quote
I have the same outlook on Irvine RE as Panda. We are likely to trend down so people still on the sidelines should wait as long as possible. We are already 10 years into this recovery/expansion. Now is not the time to jump in. Plenty of signs of a slowdown / recession coming.

Panda has always been a downer when it comes to Irvine real estate. On the other hand, he thinks Johns Creek will never go bad. :)

Some people can't wait... but it sound like you think Irvine real estate is going to drop even more from here? How much more 10%? 20%? Not even Panda has made that type of prediction.

Why is that? If rents are still good, ie cashflow positive, why would an investor sell?

Vacancy rate is extremely low. Less than 3%. I would not sell any of my rentals. You literally have a dozen of good applicants to choose from. And these are top tier renters. A-class. High credit profiles with high income. Most renters that want to rent in Irvine are responsible individuals that I have come across.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 19, 2019, 02:17:48 PM
How is it a talking point? Chinese FCB to me is a big factor to Irvine price stability, you disagree. I only said Chinese FCB did not matter in the context of homeonwership % (renter % vs owner %) I did not think it matter whether the investor is a Chinese FCB or a Persian FCB. Bottom line, it's an investor not a homeowner. Investor will more likely sell when the market tanks more than a homeowner.

Disagree...I don't know about Persian FCB but Chinese FCBs don't care about a 10-20% drop because they were not in the market for gains.  They just wanted to solidify their RMB in US real estate.  They are not looking for return. 

If prices fall 10-20%, they're more likely to just hold on it.

Here's something I've been saying that keeps flying over people's head when they talk about Chinese FCBs. The major driver for a lot of these Chinese FCBs is not US economy or the Irvine RE prices. It's the Chinese economy.  I agree with you that even if Irvine prices fall 10-20%, they are more likely to just hold on to their Irvine RE. Heck even if a 30% drop happens in Irvine, majority would not sell. But that's only IF the Chinese economy stays stable. I know this because my own parents are in this camp and a lot of people in their circle are like this as well. A lot of them bought Irvine RE with "cash" but that cash came from leveraging their financial holdings in China. ( Taiwan in my parent's case)

If the Chinese economy tanks another 30% (like it did from 2015-2018), a lot of them will have to sell US holdings to cover their leveraged positions in China.

P.s. Irvinecommuter did you know that Yang's parents have a residence in Irvine? My mom read it in a recent Chinese newspaper article. They live in Taiwan now but does split time between US and Taiwan.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 19, 2019, 02:19:44 PM

Panda has always been a downer when it comes to Irvine real estate. On the other hand, he thinks Johns Creek will never go bad. :)

Some people can't wait... but it sound like you think Irvine real estate is going to drop even more from here? How much more 10%? 20%? Not even Panda has made that type of prediction.

Panda said he thinks a slow decline of 10-15% in the next 4 years is possible. I am in agreement with that. I see much more downside potential going forward than upside potential. Now is not the time to get in.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 19, 2019, 02:34:48 PM
@kenkoko:

Again, you're focusing on Chinese economy.

I am still of the position that's it's not just Chinese FCBs who own quite a bit of real estate in Irvine.

It's like a diversified stock portfolio, if part of it tanks, the rest keeps it afloat.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 19, 2019, 02:35:39 PM

Panda has always been a downer when it comes to Irvine real estate. On the other hand, he thinks Johns Creek will never go bad. :)

Some people can't wait... but it sound like you think Irvine real estate is going to drop even more from here? How much more 10%? 20%? Not even Panda has made that type of prediction.

Panda said he thinks a slow decline of 10-15% in the next 4 years is possible. I am in agreement with that. I see much more downside potential going forward than upside potential. Now is not the time to get in.

We will see. Ask him about his Dow prediction.

And that's not 20%.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 19, 2019, 02:37:01 PM
How is it a talking point? Chinese FCB to me is a big factor to Irvine price stability, you disagree. I only said Chinese FCB did not matter in the context of homeonwership % (renter % vs owner %) I did not think it matter whether the investor is a Chinese FCB or a Persian FCB. Bottom line, it's an investor not a homeowner. Investor will more likely sell when the market tanks more than a homeowner.

Why is that? If rents are still good, ie cashflow positive, why would an investor sell?

Quote
Irvine is a young city with resident median age of 34. Irvine medium household income is below 100k. I brought up this point earlier in the thread. Irvine does not have the median household income to propel RE much further than current price level. FCBs helped prop up Irvine price to current level.

This has been said many times but you cannot rely on any census for Irvine's medium household income. Additionally the money that supports Irvine pricing isn't based on traditional income. You even said it yourself in the same paragraph... FCBs. There are also seniors, students, etc whose "income" will not be reflected properly.

Quote
I have the same outlook on Irvine RE as Panda. We are likely to trend down so people still on the sidelines should wait as long as possible. We are already 10 years into this recovery/expansion. Now is not the time to jump in. Plenty of signs of a slowdown / recession coming.

Panda has always been a downer when it comes to Irvine real estate. On the other hand, he thinks Johns Creek will never go bad. :)

Some people can't wait... but it sound like you think Irvine real estate is going to drop even more from here? How much more 10%? 20%? Not even Panda has made that type of prediction.

Why is that? If rents are still good, ie cashflow positive, why would an investor sell?

Vacancy rate is extremely low. Less than 3%. I would not sell any of my rentals. You literally have a dozen of good applicants to choose from. And these are top tier renters. A-class. High credit profiles with high income. Most renters that want to rent in Irvine are responsible individuals that I have come across.



Plus, if the economy is down and less people are buying and more people are renting... who's your daddy? :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 19, 2019, 02:37:38 PM
How is it a talking point? Chinese FCB to me is a big factor to Irvine price stability, you disagree. I only said Chinese FCB did not matter in the context of homeonwership % (renter % vs owner %) I did not think it matter whether the investor is a Chinese FCB or a Persian FCB. Bottom line, it's an investor not a homeowner. Investor will more likely sell when the market tanks more than a homeowner.

Disagree...I don't know about Persian FCB but Chinese FCBs don't care about a 10-20% drop because they were not in the market for gains.  They just wanted to solidify their RMB in US real estate.  They are not looking for return. 

If prices fall 10-20%, they're more likely to just hold on it.

Here's something I've been saying that keeps flying over people's head when they talk about Chinese FCBs. The major driver for a lot of these Chinese FCBs is not US economy or the Irvine RE prices. It's the Chinese economy.  I agree with you that even if Irvine prices fall 10-20%, they are more likely to just hold on to their Irvine RE. Heck even if a 30% drop happens in Irvine, majority would not sell. But that's only IF the Chinese economy stays stable. I know this because my own parents are in this camp and a lot of people in their circle are like this as well. A lot of them bought Irvine RE with "cash" but that cash came from leveraging their financial holdings in China. ( Taiwan in my parent's case)

If the Chinese economy tanks another 30% (like it did from 2015-2018), a lot of them will have to sell US holdings to cover their leveraged positions in China.

P.s. Irvinecommuter did you know that Yang's parents have a residence in Irvine? My mom read it in a recent Chinese newspaper article. They live in Taiwan now but does split time between US and Taiwan.

If Chinese economy tanks, you will see a mass exodus from China.  They wouldn't sell their assets in the US...it is their asset firewall.  That's why they already sent their families here.

I know that his dad went to Cal.  Irvine seems logical.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on April 19, 2019, 02:47:33 PM
How is it a talking point? Chinese FCB to me is a big factor to Irvine price stability, you disagree. I only said Chinese FCB did not matter in the context of homeonwership % (renter % vs owner %) I did not think it matter whether the investor is a Chinese FCB or a Persian FCB. Bottom line, it's an investor not a homeowner. Investor will more likely sell when the market tanks more than a homeowner.

Disagree...I don't know about Persian FCB but Chinese FCBs don't care about a 10-20% drop because they were not in the market for gains.  They just wanted to solidify their RMB in US real estate.  They are not looking for return. 

If prices fall 10-20%, they're more likely to just hold on it.

Here's something I've been saying that keeps flying over people's head when they talk about Chinese FCBs. The major driver for a lot of these Chinese FCBs is not US economy or the Irvine RE prices. It's the Chinese economy.  I agree with you that even if Irvine prices fall 10-20%, they are more likely to just hold on to their Irvine RE. Heck even if a 30% drop happens in Irvine, majority would not sell. But that's only IF the Chinese economy stays stable. I know this because my own parents are in this camp and a lot of people in their circle are like this as well. A lot of them bought Irvine RE with "cash" but that cash came from leveraging their financial holdings in China. ( Taiwan in my parent's case)

If the Chinese economy tanks another 30% (like it did from 2015-2018), a lot of them will have to sell US holdings to cover their leveraged positions in China.

P.s. Irvinecommuter did you know that Yang's parents have a residence in Irvine? My mom read it in a recent Chinese newspaper article. They live in Taiwan now but does split time between US and Taiwan.

If Chinese economy tanks, you will see a mass exodus from China.  They wouldn't sell their assets in the US...it is their asset firewall.  That's why they already sent their families here.

I know that his dad went to Cal.  Irvine seems logical.

I don’t know, but if I was a wealthy Chinese who owns properties in Irvine and some hard time comes in China, I would sell Irvine properties to have more stable life in China, not the other way. If some massacres or something as bad happen, then I would flee to America, but if it’s just some economic problem, I would sell assets here to support my life in home country. For families and kids, I think they send them here to learn and eventually would have them come back. Isn’t that why they go back after college?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 19, 2019, 03:21:16 PM
If Chinese economy tanks, you will see a mass exodus from China.  They wouldn't sell their assets in the US...it is their asset firewall.  That's why they already sent their families here.

I know that his dad went to Cal.  Irvine seems logical.

There was actually an article in Chinese Business week or Fortune magazine about this last year on this very subject. I will find it and post here when I have time to look it up. Basically, they polled a bunch of wealthy Chinese businessmen and USA did not make their top 3 place to emigrant. I think US was 4th or 5th.

Top choices were

1) Singapore. because its culture is very similar and they speak Mandarin so no language barrier
2) Sydney. close proximity to China and lose financial regulation
3) Vancouver.

However, California RE did make #1 on their choice to stash money because it's very loosely regulated (unlike Singapore) and taxes are much lower compared to other places.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 19, 2019, 03:25:55 PM
I don’t know, but if I was a wealthy Chinese who owns properties in Irvine and some hard time comes in China, I would sell Irvine properties to have more stable life in China, not the other way. If some massacres or something as bad happen, then I would flee to America, but if it’s just some economic problem, I would sell assets here to support my life in home country. For families and kids, I think they send them here to learn and eventually would have them come back. Isn’t that why they go back after college?

I agree. It baffles me that people think Chinese investors will sell their primary homes in China, abandon their live and business in China, leave their social circle behind and  come to USA where they don't speak the language. Instead of just selling their 2nd homes / vacation home / vacant home in Irvine. Seriously?

Just ask yourself this. If you have a vacation home in China, and you become financially strapped. Are you going to sell your Irvine primary residence, quit your job, leave your friends and family, move to china and you don't even speak the language?

Why do you expect Chinese people to behave differently?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 19, 2019, 03:30:51 PM
@kenkoko:

Again, you're focusing on Chinese economy.

I am still of the position that's it's not just Chinese FCBs who own quite a bit of real estate in Irvine.

It's like a diversified stock portfolio, if part of it tanks, the rest keeps it afloat.

I focus on the Chinese economy when it's about Chinese FCBs.

Sure, I hear your point about having more than just Chinese FCBs. But that only adds to the point that Irvine has a lot of downward price resistance, which I agree with.

But downward price resistance is not enough to propel future Irvine home prices to outpace inflation. ( A point Mety keeps referring to but no bullish poster care to answer)

I have yet to see anyone point out what exactly they see in our economy that is going to propel Irvine home prices higher outpacing inflation.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 19, 2019, 03:34:05 PM
IC and others are correct . Look at Chinese buying of foreign assets — they go to great lengths to siphon off money from the mainland into other “safer” havens. I don’t think trump has yet changed that

Also — cannot separate the US equity markets from the housing market . Prolonged decline in home prices will begin to affect consumer confidence and then the economy . This is why I have a hard time believe doomsday predictions in housing. Modest slowdown , yes.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 19, 2019, 03:49:39 PM
Quote from: Kenkoko
But downward price resistance is not enough to propel future Irvine home prices to outpace inflation. ( A point Mety keeps referring to but no bullish poster care to answer)

I have yet to see anyone point out what exactly they see in our economy that is going to propel Irvine home prices higher outpacing inflation.

I never said Irvine would outpace inflation. Just that it would not see a significant and sustained drop and it would fare better than surrounding cities.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 19, 2019, 03:49:57 PM
IC and others are correct . Look at Chinese buying of foreign assets — they go to great lengths to siphon off money from the mainland into other “safer” havens. I don’t think trump has yet changed that

Also — cannot separate the US equity markets from the housing market . Prolonged decline in home prices will begin to affect consumer confidence and then the economy . This is why I have a hard time believe doomsday predictions in housing. Modest slowdown , yes.

You are talking about Chinese institutional buying in US commercial real estate. That's not the same as residential real estate in Irvine.

And FYI, Chinese are exiting US Real Estate at a rapid paste. Chinese net purchases of U.S. commercial real estate last year dwindled to their lowest level since 2012.

Here is an article from the Wall Street Journal on this exact topic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exiting-u-s-real-estate-as-beijing-directs-money-back-to-shore-up-economy-11548757800

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 19, 2019, 04:12:43 PM
I don’t know, but if I was a wealthy Chinese who owns properties in Irvine and some hard time comes in China, I would sell Irvine properties to have more stable life in China, not the other way. If some massacres or something as bad happen, then I would flee to America, but if it’s just some economic problem, I would sell assets here to support my life in home country. For families and kids, I think they send them here to learn and eventually would have them come back. Isn’t that why they go back after college?

I agree. It baffles me that people think Chinese investors will sell their primary homes in China, abandon their live and business in China, leave their social circle behind and  come to USA where they don't speak the language. Instead of just selling their 2nd homes / vacation home / vacant home in Irvine. Seriously?

Just ask yourself this. If you have a vacation home in China, and you become financially strapped. Are you going to sell your Irvine primary residence, quit your job, leave your friends and family, move to china and you don't even speak the language?

Why do you expect Chinese people to behave differently?

Again..Chinese FCB don't buy houses in US as a backup investment, it's their escape hatch.  Why do you think all the Chinese people want green cards and send their women here to have kids in the US?  It's to escape from China if things go bad.  They are not buying financial stability, they are buying political and social stability.   

Chinese political situation is dynamic and ever-fluid, both on a national and international level.  People who can afford to send their family out of the China are doing so.  The breadwinners stay in China for as long as they can so that they can keep the money flowing but they are setting up a backup plan in the US if things go south.  If Chinese economy collapses/falls, the government is coming after rich people/private industry.   

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2167731/desperate-chinese-middle-class-take-big-risks-move-money-and-themselves

Commercial property is purchased not by individuals, but corporations.  Those corporations are beholdened to the Chinese government, who basically dictated what and how much money goes in and out of the country.   China government is basically mandating that the Chinese corporation bring back foreign assets to prop up the Chinese economy.   

This article talks about it but think of China as a banana republic that could topple at any moment..then you understand the mentality.

https://www.businessinsider.com/middle-class-chinese-buyers-us-real-estate-investment-2019-1
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 19, 2019, 04:16:25 PM

I don’t know, but if I was a wealthy Chinese who owns properties in Irvine and some hard time comes in China, I would sell Irvine properties to have more stable life in China, not the other way. If some massacres or something as bad happen, then I would flee to America, but if it’s just some economic problem, I would sell assets here to support my life in home country. For families and kids, I think they send them here to learn and eventually would have them come back. Isn’t that why they go back after college?

They don't want go back...they stay here.  Jobs are better here and a lot less competition.  People who go back are not the top tier people. 
Trend has been changing in part to changes in US immigration policy.  This of course goes back to the stupid policies we have in the US to make it harder for US company to retain foreign students...but that goes with another thread.

https://www.axios.com/foreign-student-visas-dropping-china-india-trump-81e70609-9fa7-43eb-8f40-ccfef9fe3fa5.html
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 19, 2019, 04:41:24 PM
IC, you are talking about the total collapse of the Chinese economy. It is very unlikely but in that scenario, yes, people will flee China.

The much more likely scenario is China avoids a total meltdown, but economy takes a fairly large hit. Most Chinese FCB families still have the breadwinner making $$$ in China.  In a non-melt down scenario, majority will sell their offshore holdings to keep their business in China afloat. When the margin calls come, they are not going to just drop their life and escape. That's the doomsday scenario.

Even when you look at doomsday scenario, US is not even in the top 3 escape hatch among Chinese. 1) Singapore 2) Sydney Austrilia 3) Vancuver Canada. USA is 4th or 5th preferred.

The reason why California is #1 place for Chinese to stash money even tho it is not their top 3 escape choice is that California RE regulation is very loose. Anyone can buy, anonymity as you can hold RE in corporation, LLCs, and property tax rate is actually lowest among other top escape hatch destinations. And Irvine RE is very stable and liquid. One can quickly cash out of Irvine and buy an escape hatch in Singapore when shit really hits the fan. There's a reason why almost every Chinese Realtor in Irvine touts the liquidity in Irvine RE in their Ads. They know Chinese investor cares about this.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 19, 2019, 05:20:31 PM
IC and others are correct . Look at Chinese buying of foreign assets — they go to great lengths to siphon off money from the mainland into other “safer” havens. I don’t think trump has yet changed that

Also — cannot separate the US equity markets from the housing market . Prolonged decline in home prices will begin to affect consumer confidence and then the economy . This is why I have a hard time believe doomsday predictions in housing. Modest slowdown , yes.

You are talking about Chinese institutional buying in US commercial real estate. That's not the same as residential real estate in Irvine.

And FYI, Chinese are exiting US Real Estate at a rapid paste. Chinese net purchases of U.S. commercial real estate last year dwindled to their lowest level since 2012.

Here is an article from the Wall Street Journal on this exact topic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exiting-u-s-real-estate-as-beijing-directs-money-back-to-shore-up-economy-11548757800

No I am actually referring to residential real estate . CRE has been overvalued for some time now with all time low cap rates , very few ppl have the wherewithal (like blackstone etc ) to make any money from CRE . 

I would not count on FCBs as the source of collapse in Irvine. As a reduction in marginal buying power, yes. And so we are back to mortgage availability and rates as the driving force as opposed to the crazy all cash bidding price wars, which is not necessarily a bad thing .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on April 19, 2019, 07:02:23 PM
Attached is the latest inventory chart of Irvine. Just watch to see if the Irvine inventory surpasses 1000 and watch the Orange County unemployment chart I posted earlier. Actually, it may be very healthy for the home prices in Irvine to cool down a bit so that new long waiting buyers can start entering the market at better prices than 2018. I agree with Kenkoko that there is no rush for buyers and the longer they can wait, the sweeter the deal will be.
 
(https://www.dropbox.com/s/b2o5w7f98pebcsn/IRVINE_INVENTORY.jpg?raw=1)

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/kf7rn5jxzkpp6i6/irvine.jpg?raw=1)

OCLuvr, Are you asking me about Micro (zip codes in OC?) or Macro (across the U.S)

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/10vhbz5kdkg1koz/fred.jpg?raw=1)

The unemployment in the OC will be a leading indicator. Once you see OC unemployment reach 5%, even "AAA" grade real estate assets like Irvine will start to correct. 

(https://www.dropbox.com/s/oovrlhkyryggyj6/sanfran.jpg?raw=1)



Which places do you expect the crash to be in?




Panda has always been a downer when it comes to Irvine real estate. On the other hand, he thinks Johns Creek will never go bad. :)

Some people can't wait... but it sound like you think Irvine real estate is going to drop even more from here? How much more 10%? 20%? Not even Panda has made that type of prediction.

Panda said he thinks a slow decline of 10-15% in the next 4 years is possible. I am in agreement with that. I see much more downside potential going forward than upside potential. Now is not the time to get in.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 20, 2019, 03:21:41 PM
Why is over 1000 something to watch for?

It looks like by your chart that in the summer of 2014, it went over 1000 but what were prices at?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 20, 2019, 08:40:45 PM
Why is over 1000 something to watch for?

It looks like by your chart that in the summer of 2014, it went over 1000 but what were prices at?

Yes ... and also ,

what has been the population change in the last 6 years ?  Doesn’t that have a bearing also ?

What’s the marginal income change in last 6 years  (top quartile of buyer pool) ? Forget median income, that’s meaningless when it comes to coastal states .

Absolute stats are not as meaningful as “months of inventory “ which accounts for changes in the velocity of the market . I think USC had some good posts on that metric .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 20, 2019, 10:28:19 PM
Why is over 1000 something to watch for?

It looks like by your chart that in the summer of 2014, it went over 1000 but what were prices at?

Yes ... and also ,

what has been the population change in the last 6 years ?  Doesn’t that have a bearing also ?

What’s the marginal income change in last 6 years  (top quartile of buyer pool) ? Forget median income, that’s meaningless when it comes to coastal states .

Absolute stats are not as meaningful as “months of inventory “ which accounts for changes in the velocity of the market . I think USC had some good posts on that metric .

I'd have to check the data but I'm pretty sure that total sales volume increased since 2014 so using a static 1,000 inventory figure as a bench mark becomes less relevant as time moves on.  I believe that months of inventory is the key figure to watch because it tracks both the supply and demand side.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 20, 2019, 10:41:24 PM

what has been the population change in the last 6 years ?  Doesn’t that have a bearing also ?

What’s the marginal income change in last 6 years  (top quartile of buyer pool) ? Forget median income, that’s meaningless when it comes to coastal states .

Absolute stats are not as meaningful as “months of inventory “ which accounts for changes in the velocity of the market . I think USC had some good posts on that metric .

We should definitely pay attention to potential change in the velocity of the market. Which is why I bring up Chinese FCBs because a mass selling in a short period of time will cause market disruption. This happened to Taipei RE (Taiwan) when Chinese pulled money out at rapid pace. RE value dropped 40% in a 5-6 years period. (during a bull market too)

If we are going to talk about population change, we should also mention the rapid change in Irvine demographics. The huge surge of Asian population is unseen in any other coastal area in LA or Orange county.

Irvine is not a wealth concentrated area like real coastal cities like Newport or even Mission Viejo. Look at the age discrepancy of the median Native-born age(25.9) to the median Foreign-born age (42.7) in Irvine. This kind of large gap is no where to be seen at any other city in LA or OC.

Also never hear anyone mention the poverty rate in Irvine is really high at 12.7%.  Yorba Linda is 3.83%, Mission Viejo is 4.75%, Newport is 6.5%.

Median income is probably meaningless for Newport Beach but I don't entirely agree with the notion that median income is meaningless to Irvine.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 21, 2019, 07:51:50 AM

what has been the population change in the last 6 years ?  Doesn’t that have a bearing also ?

What’s the marginal income change in last 6 years  (top quartile of buyer pool) ? Forget median income, that’s meaningless when it comes to coastal states .

Absolute stats are not as meaningful as “months of inventory “ which accounts for changes in the velocity of the market . I think USC had some good posts on that metric .

We should definitely pay attention to potential change in the velocity of the market. Which is why I bring up Chinese FCBs because a mass selling in a short period of time will cause market disruption. This happened to Taipei RE (Taiwan) when Chinese pulled money out at rapid pace. RE value dropped 40% in a 5-6 years period. (during a bull market too)

If we are going to talk about population change, we should also mention the rapid change in Irvine demographics. The huge surge of Asian population is unseen in any other coastal area in LA or Orange county.

Irvine is not a wealth concentrated area like real coastal cities like Newport or even Mission Viejo. Look at the age discrepancy of the median Native-born age(25.9) to the median Foreign-born age (42.7) in Irvine. This kind of large gap is no where to be seen at any other city in LA or OC.

Also never hear anyone mention the poverty rate in Irvine is really high at 12.7%.  Yorba Linda is 3.83%, Mission Viejo is 4.75%, Newport is 6.5%.

Median income is probably meaningless for Newport Beach but I don't entirely agree with the notion that median income is meaningless to Irvine.

That’s a pretty high poverty rate for Irvine ! How does it compare to the national average

As to median vs marginal  ... so many 3 , 4 and 5 plus million homes have sold in Irvine in last 5 years (and not just in shady canyon, I am talking new construction) , that this forum is littered w posts like “for that price I would rather buy in Newport Beach etc etc .... “ .

So, someone is willing  to pay top dollar to live in Irvine (not just FCBs , as was my misperception before I talked to actual people who did the buying in the 3 plus million zone .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: misme on April 21, 2019, 08:10:51 AM

what has been the population change in the last 6 years ?  Doesn’t that have a bearing also ?

What’s the marginal income change in last 6 years  (top quartile of buyer pool) ? Forget median income, that’s meaningless when it comes to coastal states .

Absolute stats are not as meaningful as “months of inventory “ which accounts for changes in the velocity of the market . I think USC had some good posts on that metric .

We should definitely pay attention to potential change in the velocity of the market. Which is why I bring up Chinese FCBs because a mass selling in a short period of time will cause market disruption. This happened to Taipei RE (Taiwan) when Chinese pulled money out at rapid pace. RE value dropped 40% in a 5-6 years period. (during a bull market too)

If we are going to talk about population change, we should also mention the rapid change in Irvine demographics. The huge surge of Asian population is unseen in any other coastal area in LA or Orange county.

Irvine is not a wealth concentrated area like real coastal cities like Newport or even Mission Viejo. Look at the age discrepancy of the median Native-born age(25.9) to the median Foreign-born age (42.7) in Irvine. This kind of large gap is no where to be seen at any other city in LA or OC.

Also never hear anyone mention the poverty rate in Irvine is really high at 12.7%.  Yorba Linda is 3.83%, Mission Viejo is 4.75%, Newport is 6.5%.

Median income is probably meaningless for Newport Beach but I don't entirely agree with the notion that median income is meaningless to Irvine.

That’s a pretty high poverty rate for Irvine ! How does it compare to the national average

As to median vs marginal  ... so many 3 , 4 and 5 plus million homes have sold in Irvine in last 5 years (and not just in shady canyon, I am talking new construction) , that this forum is littered w posts like “for that price I would rather buy in Newport Beach etc etc .... “ .

So, someone is willing  to pay top dollar to live in Irvine (not just FCBs , as was my misperception before I talked to actual people who did the buying in the 3 plus million zone .


Irvine has a central location and convenience factor as a major job center that can not be beat for everyday life. Realistically, how often do you go to the beach? Do you want to deal with the AirBnBs and beach going traffic everyday getting to and from your house?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on April 21, 2019, 02:06:40 PM
I know a rich Chinese family that owns a rental in Irvine, and a "vacation" home in Newport Coast.  The money they used to buy these 2 properties among other things was difficult to get out of China.  It's hard to believe they would sell these 2 properties after all the shit they went through to get it here in the first place.  Think of all the transaction costs that come up when uncle pooh bear puts a $50,000 annual limit per person.


They already have tons of property in China....the property in the US is additional.  It's a Swiss bank account that can be lived in or rented out.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 21, 2019, 03:57:58 PM
I know a rich Chinese family that owns a rental in Irvine, and a "vacation" home in Newport Coast.  The money they used to buy these 2 properties among other things was difficult to get out of China.  It's hard to believe they would sell these 2 properties after all the shit they went through to get it here in the first place.  Think of all the transaction costs that come up when uncle pooh bear puts a $50,000 annual limit per person.


They already have tons of property in China....the property in the US is additional.  It's a Swiss bank account that can be lived in or rented out.


Many people are unfamiliar with how wealthy Chinese people got money out of China. Prior to the new capital outflow regulation (2018), Chinese people could get funds out of China as long the funds were tied to their financial holdings in China (used as collateral). What happened was that wealthy Chinese people would pay the bankers to come up with fake appraisals that would allow them to take out 150%, 200%, some even 300% of their actual equity. (Chinese banks are a mixture of private/public business. Very corrupted)

This is one of the top issues that the Chinese government is currently cracking down on. This is also the reason why many of these wealthy Chinese pay money laundering service insane fees like 20% just to get money out. This is also why you see many FCBs, being price insensitive, just throw cash overbidding everyone else.

There’s no point for them to sell their holdings in China because the loan is already way bigger than its real worth.

also FYI, Swiss banks already bowed to pressure and have started to work with the IRS and the Chinese government. It's not the same safe heaven as it was.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 22, 2019, 07:16:19 AM

what has been the population change in the last 6 years ?  Doesn’t that have a bearing also ?

What’s the marginal income change in last 6 years  (top quartile of buyer pool) ? Forget median income, that’s meaningless when it comes to coastal states .

Absolute stats are not as meaningful as “months of inventory “ which accounts for changes in the velocity of the market . I think USC had some good posts on that metric .

We should definitely pay attention to potential change in the velocity of the market. Which is why I bring up Chinese FCBs because a mass selling in a short period of time will cause market disruption. This happened to Taipei RE (Taiwan) when Chinese pulled money out at rapid pace. RE value dropped 40% in a 5-6 years period. (during a bull market too)

If we are going to talk about population change, we should also mention the rapid change in Irvine demographics. The huge surge of Asian population is unseen in any other coastal area in LA or Orange county.

Irvine is not a wealth concentrated area like real coastal cities like Newport or even Mission Viejo. Look at the age discrepancy of the median Native-born age(25.9) to the median Foreign-born age (42.7) in Irvine. This kind of large gap is no where to be seen at any other city in LA or OC.

Also never hear anyone mention the poverty rate in Irvine is really high at 12.7%.  Yorba Linda is 3.83%, Mission Viejo is 4.75%, Newport is 6.5%.

Median income is probably meaningless for Newport Beach but I don't entirely agree with the notion that median income is meaningless to Irvine.

Yet despite these stats, irvine still fared better during the last downturn and still has premium pricing and demand compared to Yorba Linda and Mission Viejo. Newport Beach is a different animal yet as other posters have mentioned, people still spend as much in Irvine.

There have been quite a few chiming in on why there won't be a major selloff in Irvine by investors/FCBs/etc which seems to hold true based on past experience.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: curious george on April 22, 2019, 12:54:02 PM

what has been the population change in the last 6 years ?  Doesn’t that have a bearing also ?

What’s the marginal income change in last 6 years  (top quartile of buyer pool) ? Forget median income, that’s meaningless when it comes to coastal states .

Absolute stats are not as meaningful as “months of inventory “ which accounts for changes in the velocity of the market . I think USC had some good posts on that metric .

We should definitely pay attention to potential change in the velocity of the market. Which is why I bring up Chinese FCBs because a mass selling in a short period of time will cause market disruption. This happened to Taipei RE (Taiwan) when Chinese pulled money out at rapid pace. RE value dropped 40% in a 5-6 years period. (during a bull market too)

If we are going to talk about population change, we should also mention the rapid change in Irvine demographics. The huge surge of Asian population is unseen in any other coastal area in LA or Orange county.

Irvine is not a wealth concentrated area like real coastal cities like Newport or even Mission Viejo. Look at the age discrepancy of the median Native-born age(25.9) to the median Foreign-born age (42.7) in Irvine. This kind of large gap is no where to be seen at any other city in LA or OC.

Also never hear anyone mention the poverty rate in Irvine is really high at 12.7%.  Yorba Linda is 3.83%, Mission Viejo is 4.75%, Newport is 6.5%.

Median income is probably meaningless for Newport Beach but I don't entirely agree with the notion that median income is meaningless to Irvine.

It's happening in vancouver , BC as well.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 24, 2019, 07:19:32 AM
As we suspected - a combination of lower rates plus builders getting more aggressive...


U.S. New-Home Sales Rose in March


All U.S. regions but the Northeast saw new-home sales gains last month

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-new-home-sales-rose-in-march-11556028205
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Panda on April 24, 2019, 08:13:49 AM
(https://www.dropbox.com/s/10vhbz5kdkg1koz/fred.jpg?raw=1)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 24, 2019, 08:51:09 AM

It's happening in vancouver , BC as well.

Vancouver and Australia are tier 2 destination...they are basically targets now because it is much easier to get visa to Canada and Australia.  Tier 1 FCB came to US...top tier people went NYC, LA/OC, and Bay Area.   
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 24, 2019, 09:20:08 AM

It's happening in vancouver , BC as well.

Vancouver and Australia are tier 2 destination...they are basically targets now because it is much easier to get visa to Canada and Australia.  Tier 1 FCB came to US...top tier people went NYC, LA/OC, and Bay Area.

Interesting .. when you say tier 2 - do you mean in terms of $$  . Or is it by social strata . Or is it by asset diversification?
Because there were certainly a few more expensive homes being sold in Vancouver than Irvine .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 24, 2019, 10:35:12 AM

It's happening in vancouver , BC as well.

Vancouver and Australia are tier 2 destination...they are basically targets now because it is much easier to get visa to Canada and Australia.  Tier 1 FCB came to US...top tier people went NYC, LA/OC, and Bay Area.

Interesting .. when you say tier 2 - do you mean in terms of $$  . Or is it by social strata . Or is it by asset diversification?
Because there were certainly a few more expensive homes being sold in Vancouver than Irvine .

Price is a factor but it's really the green card...it is much easier to get one in Canada than US.  Richmond/Vancouver and Australia are the go to place for HK residents because of the British Empire thing.   

Now...the prices eventually got crazy in Canada and Australia because there was a limited number of US visa and the rest of the buyers went elsewhere. 

Irvine, NYC, LA etc were the first places to get the FCB money....then people went elsewhere. 

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/a-brief-history-of-foreign-buying-of-vancouver-real-estate/

Irvine got boost in 2012-2014...Vancouver start going crazy after 2014

https://infogram.com/real-estate-last-decade-1gxop47xkq1ypwy

US markets could have gotten even crazier had stuff like this didn't happen

Quote
During the past two USCIS Stakeholder’s Meetings on EB-5 issues, EB-5 stakeholders, including Greenberg Traurig, have questioned USCIS on its policy of allowing loans to be a source of an investor’s lawful capital.  For many years, USCIS has allowed investors to secure a loan by a relative’s property, so long as that relative gifted the use of the real property as collateral for the loan.

USCIS, however, has recently changed its policy through the course of adjudicating I-526 Petitions and many stakeholders have reported that I-526 Petitions are being denied when the investor does not wholly own the real property used to collateralize a loan.  Following its April 22, 2015, stakeholders call, USCIS issued a written summary of the Immigrant Investor Program Office’s (IPO) Deputy Chief’s remarks on the issue.  USCIS now is stating that proceeds from a loan may qualify as capital of the investor provided that: (1) the investor is personally and primarily liable for the loan and (2) the value of the collateralized asset actually owned by the investor must meet or exceed the value of the loan.  In practice, many stakeholders are reporting Requests for Evidence (RFEs), Notices of Intent to Deny (NOIDs) and denials of petitions stating that where the investor does not personally own the entire property, it cannot be used as the collateral for a loan.  In other words, USCIS seems to be stating that the investor may only use loan proceeds as a source of funds if the loan is collateralized by the investor’s property and the investor solely owns the property, i.e. not jointly with a third party such as a parent, sibling or child.  USCIS seems to be continuing to approve cases where investor owns the property with his or her spouse.

https://www.eb5insights.com/2015/05/12/uscis-changes-policy-on-the-use-of-loan-proceeds-as-a-source-of-funds/

Quote
The price of a U.S. Green Card held steady for the past 27 years at $500,000 USD, under an investment immigration program known as EB-5. That will almost certainly change this year, when the U.S. Congress votes on raising the investor's Green Card minimum to $1.3 million. So what is a millionaire to do when the U.S. tells them to take their money elsewhere?

Apparently, they look to Canada, where immigrant investor programs are seeing a flood of interest and applications from discouraged would-be U.S. immigrants, seeking to take their money to more welcoming shores.

Qualified applicants flooded one such Canadian program in the province of Manitoba after the U.S. policy shift was announced in October. With investment minimums ranging from $115,000-$300,000 USD, the Canadian options are significantly cheaper than their southern counterparts as well.

Visas-for-dollars migration programs exist the world over, but no country can match the variety and affordability on offer in Canada. While Canada's infamous Federal Entrepreneur Investment Program was scrapped in 2014, to the dismay of 64,000 applicants who were shut out, there remain over a dozen smaller and less costly investor visa programs on offer.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/vanessa-routley/canada-investor-immigrants_b_14825250.html
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 24, 2019, 10:48:10 AM
And if there is still a debate as to why Chinese/HK people are buying overseas:

Quote
More than 40 per cent of the breadwinners for recent millionaire migrant households in Canada appear to have exited the country, although many left families behind there, according to new census data that illustrate the extent of a widespread phenomenon among rich Hong Kong and mainland Chinese immigrants.

Overall, only 52.6 per cent of the 52,507 investor migrant households that moved to Canada between 1986 and the May 2016 census still had their original breadwinner, or “principal applicant”, living in Canada, according to the South China Morning Post’s analysis of the data.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2125153/many-millionaire-migrants-are-exiting-canada-leaving

Quote
Another piece of evidence further supporting the argument of status as a driver of emigration: Many Chinese millionaires do not live abroad, instead opting to “immigrate and stay home.” They continue to run their businesses in China after gaining a prized green card or other residence permit. Wealthy Chinese tend to be less familiar with foreign markets or job opportunities, and their business expertise cannot be fully utilized abroad. They also face language and cultural barriers. As the Financial Times noted in 2015, respondents listed “lack of knowledge about foreign regulations and markets” as the second and third most significant problems associated with overseas investment. It is easier for Chinese businesses to turn a profit at home, where markets are less mature than in the industrialized world.

The business of wealthy Chinese, in essence, is largely confined to China, and over the short term they are unlikely to leave permanently. Their main goals in applying for foreign visas are to facilitate the education of their children at respected overseas institutions and make international travel more convenient. As a result, these millionaires often allow their family members to be the principal applicants, in order to avoid the required duration of residence. Others apply for visas from host countries with less demanding requirements, primarily for easier access to other countries, according to a 2014 Migration Policy Institute (MPI) report.

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/millionaire-emigration-allure-investor-visas-among-chinas-elite
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 24, 2019, 11:36:36 AM
One more thing to add to the post above...the collateral loan thing was a big deal because it was an easy way to get money out of China.  They would have their relatives  "buy" the properties outright...then use that collateral to get business loans to set up "businesses" to get green cards for themselves and their family. 

Chinese government was not doing much tracing back then and a person buying a house in the US was not a big deal and the rich people don't get directly related to the transaction so it does not look like they are trying to flee the US.  Much easier for the buyer to say "hey, my dad is buying a house in the US because the pollution is so bad in Beijing". 



Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 24, 2019, 06:54:13 PM

That’s a pretty high poverty rate for Irvine ! How does it compare to the national average


National poverty rate is 12.3. Pretty much the same as Irvine.

But Irvine poverty rate is very high compared to every other city in south OC. I think the next highest is Lake Forest at 7.45%. The rest are around 5%.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 24, 2019, 07:01:09 PM
While we are on the subject of Irvine poverty rate, Katie Porter was just on TV last week going hard at Jamie Dimon  (CEO of Chase) about a Irvine woman working at Chase for $16 per hour.

It's kinda of hilarious and sad to watch. I have nothing against the spirit of fighting for a higher wage.

But someone should tell her that Chase will just automate that job anyway. What good is a promise to boost the wage of a job that's just going to evaporate soon? So many of our elected officials are so damn clueless.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOfx931LNJ0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOfx931LNJ0)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 24, 2019, 07:41:56 PM
Minimum wage has little bearing on if a job gets automated.

Companies are replacing labor w machines whenever they can and especially when they think customers will like the experience . This is the logic WSJ has drilled into generations of readers with their op-eds. The actual evidence is not there.

As to banks, notice that banks don’t really use designations like “bank teller”anymore . They have upgraded their skill set to be more wholistic sales and service associates. This would have happened regardless of the minimum wage
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 24, 2019, 07:43:03 PM

That’s a pretty high poverty rate for Irvine ! How does it compare to the national average


National poverty rate is 12.3. Pretty much the same as Irvine.

But Irvine poverty rate is very high compared to every other city in south OC. I think the next highest is Lake Forest at 7.45%. The rest are around 5%.

Drive through lake forest and drive through irvine

How does this make logical sense ? I am genuinely curious . Where exactly is this poverty located .
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: AW on April 24, 2019, 07:58:45 PM
Who’s filling out these surveys, fcb kids? Of course they’re poverty level (on paper)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 24, 2019, 08:13:06 PM
Who’s filling out these surveys, fcb kids? Of course they’re poverty level (on paper)

That's actually not correct. 

The largest group is White. 14,232 White are below poverty level in Irvine. (39%)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 24, 2019, 08:17:03 PM
Ever wonder where all those business owners in Westminster and Garden Grove lives? Irvine and quite a few of them lives in Shady Cayon and Turtle Ridge.

Their business is CASH only. No credit cards. No checks. And guess what no traces. Tax time is great for them as they declared "poor" and barely making it.

This fit into your poverty, poverty level is on paper for them. Reality, they got more money to burn you alive.

Stats and poverty rates does a poor job of linking them to their hidden money.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 24, 2019, 08:22:51 PM
Minimum wage has little bearing on if a job gets automated.

Companies are replacing labor w machines whenever they can and especially when they think customers will like the experience . This is the logic WSJ has drilled into generations of readers with their op-eds. The actual evidence is not there.

As to banks, notice that banks don’t really use designations like “bank teller”anymore . They have upgraded their skill set to be more wholistic sales and service associates. This would have happened regardless of the minimum wage

Yeah, I agree with that in general. Business will automate jobs away when they can. But raising the min wage will only speed that up, especially for jobs already at the margins.

Last year my boss decided to keep our billing department (humans) even tho software was already cheaper by about 6-8%. This year the entire department is gutted because people in the billing department complained about being overworked and asked for raises.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 24, 2019, 08:26:33 PM
Ever wonder where all those business owners in Westminster and Garden Grove lives? Irvine and quite a few of them lives in Shady Cayon and Turtle Ridge.

Their business is CASH only. No credit cards. No checks. And guess what no traces. Tax time is great for them as they declared "poor" and barely making it.

This fit into your poverty, poverty level is on paper for them. Reality, they got more money to burn you alive.

Stats and poverty rates does a poor job of linking them to their hidden money.

Stats do not back up your narrative tho.

40% of Irvine's poverty is age 18-24
the next 15% is age 25-34

These are not your business owners in Westminster and Garden Grove
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: AW on April 24, 2019, 08:42:17 PM
Ever wonder where all those business owners in Westminster and Garden Grove lives? Irvine and quite a few of them lives in Shady Cayon and Turtle Ridge.

Their business is CASH only. No credit cards. No checks. And guess what no traces. Tax time is great for them as they declared "poor" and barely making it.

This fit into your poverty, poverty level is on paper for them. Reality, they got more money to burn you alive.

Stats and poverty rates does a poor job of linking them to their hidden money.

Stats do not back up your narrative tho.

40% of Irvine's poverty is age 18-24
the next 15% is age 25-34

These are not your business owners in Westminster and Garden Grove
So they’re more like stay at home millennials or like aunt becky’s kid (aka rich parents)

Drive around Irvine and I hardly believe that percentage is truly representative of the “poverty” populace.  Look at the cars on the road, around the shopping plazas. You want to see a city high in poverty, cars on those roads are a good 10-20 yrs older on average. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: i1 on April 24, 2019, 10:55:05 PM
The poverty and income stats are distorted due to UCI students. Most cities don’t have 15-20% of their adult population as college students.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 25, 2019, 02:31:26 AM
Zillow is now showing Irvine Market Temperature as "Cold" - Buyer's Market

Zillow also changed the 1-year forecast from positive to -0.2% for Irvine.

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Trulia shows the number of sale has dropped significantly. Almost down to 2008-2009 level.

According to Trulia, sale prices for 4 bedroom homes took the biggest hit. Dropping 7.4% yoy (Jan - April)

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 25, 2019, 04:36:25 AM
The poverty and income stats are distorted due to UCI students. Most cities don’t have 15-20% of their adult population as college students.

Most logical explanation i have seen so far
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 25, 2019, 07:02:16 AM
Re FCBs — also don’t forget for many of them it is a way to get exposure to USD as a currency

Just witness the bloodbath going on in EM right now esp turkey and Argentina . China is a lot different yes, but people don’t trust a highly controlled currency regime. Things can seem fine for a long time until the dam bursts.

USD has been the premier currency this year , despite the FED turning dovish ... now let’s see how many financial advisors / experts can explain this :)


Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 25, 2019, 09:46:25 AM
The poverty and income stats are distorted due to UCI students. Most cities don’t have 15-20% of their adult population as college students.

Most logical explanation i have seen so far

I've been saying this for years. You also have to take into account the FCB unreported income and the seniors.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on April 25, 2019, 09:47:29 AM
Who’s filling out these surveys, fcb kids? Of course they’re poverty level (on paper)

That's actually not correct. 

The largest group is White. 14,232 White are below poverty level in Irvine. (39%)

I'm not too familiar with this issue, but wouldn't it make sense since there are many or more affordable housings in Irvine than other OC areas in terms of the size and the population of the city compare to others? I don't think the rate is high because of the students or foreigners. I think it would make sense to count American citizens who are having these benefits in this city. I think it's a good thing that the city offers such affordable housing/apartments for lower income families.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 25, 2019, 10:03:54 AM
The poverty and income stats are distorted due to UCI students. Most cities don’t have 15-20% of their adult population as college students.

This would explain a lot of the poverty for age 18-25, which accounts for 39-40% of Irvine's poverty.

But even if we stretch and say 100% of the poverty for age 18-24 are UCI students, we still have to account for age 26+ which is still 61% of Irvine's poverty.

That'd still give Irvine a poverty rate of 8.1%. Do we seriously blame the rest on the FCBs?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 25, 2019, 10:11:39 AM
The poverty and income stats are distorted due to UCI students. Most cities don’t have 15-20% of their adult population as college students.

This would explain a lot of the poverty for age 18-25, which accounts for 39-40% of Irvine's poverty.

But even if we stretch and say 100% of the poverty for age 18-24 are UCI students, we still have to account for age 26+ which is still 61% of Irvine's poverty.

That'd still give Irvine a poverty rate of 8.1%. Do we seriously blame the rest on the FCBs?

Do you really think Irvine has a poverty rate issue? 

Breakdown:

Largest populations of those under the poverty line in Irvine are Asians and Whites

Asian   104,912   13,971   13.32%
White   104,677   12,411   11.86%

http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/irvine-population/

Doesn't that seem abnormal to you? 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 25, 2019, 10:28:44 AM
I feel like I'm poor in Irvine. :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 25, 2019, 10:50:44 AM
I feel like I'm poor in Irvine. :)

^ This, count me in.  :). I still drive my 15 years old car.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 25, 2019, 10:57:05 AM
Do you really think Irvine has a poverty rate issue? 

No. But it contributes to my point that Irvine home prices are not bullet proof like some people keeps saying.

Irvine is not wealth concentrated like Newport Beach. Irvine is a young working class city with median age under 35. FCBs played a big part in pushing up Irvine home prices. Now that FCBs are starting to decline, It will affect home prices.

Katie Porter kept hammering her point on capitol hill that there are many people in Irvine living near poverty. You want to tell her it's not a real issue?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 25, 2019, 10:59:36 AM
Do you really think Irvine has a poverty rate issue? 

No. But it contributes to my point that Irvine home prices are not bullet proof like some people keeps saying.

Irvine is not wealth concentrated like Newport Beach. Irvine is a young working class city with median age under 35. FCBs played a big part in pushing up Irvine home prices. Now that FCBs are starting to decline, It will affect home prices.

Katie Porter kept hammering her point on capitol hill that there are many people in Irvine living near poverty. You want to tell her it's not a real issue?

You keep putting up this strawman argument...no one is saying Irvine is bulletproof, people are saying that it is much more resilient to price drops than other areas for a number of factors.   

Why would fewer FCBS mean a price drop?  It would like mean a decrease in demand and lower appreciation but not necessarily a price drop.  Also, price drops are expected in all markets, even Newport Beach....it's the degree that is at issue.

No one is also saying that Irvine is Newport Beach but very few places in the world are. 

People live on the poverty line all over the place, including Newport Beach...that doesn't mean very much.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 25, 2019, 11:13:29 AM

You keep putting up this strawman argument...no one is saying Irvine is bulletproof, people are saying that it is much more resilient to price drops than other areas for a number of factors.   

Why would fewer FCBS mean a price drop?  It would like mean a decrease in demand and lower appreciation but not necessarily a price drop.  Also, price drops are expected in all markets, even Newport Beach....it's the degree that is at issue.

No one is also saying that Irvine is Newport Beach but very few places in the world are. 

People live on the poverty line all over the place, including Newport Beach...that doesn't mean very much.

I am not the one to bring up Newport. I am too lazy to scroll up to see who it was but someone did it in defense of Irvine.

You must not be reading my posts in entirety. I've always said Irvine is desirable and has a lot of downward price resistance. Going forward in the next few years, I see more potential downside than upside for Irvine RE. I am in agreement with Panda that a 10% - 15% decline is possible in the next 4/5 years.

Regarding FCBs, I've been saying for awhile that it's not just the incoming numbers are declining, some FCBs are starting to sell. I am from a FCB family and this is what we see in our circle. This could get much worse in an economic down cycle. We are 10 years into this recovery/expansion. We are already seeing signs of a recession coming.

Now is not the time to get in.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 25, 2019, 11:15:54 AM

You keep putting up this strawman argument...no one is saying Irvine is bulletproof, people are saying that it is much more resilient to price drops than other areas for a number of factors.   

Why would fewer FCBS mean a price drop?  It would like mean a decrease in demand and lower appreciation but not necessarily a price drop.  Also, price drops are expected in all markets, even Newport Beach....it's the degree that is at issue.

No one is also saying that Irvine is Newport Beach but very few places in the world are. 

People live on the poverty line all over the place, including Newport Beach...that doesn't mean very much.

I am not the one to bring up Newport. I am too lazy to scroll up to see who it was but someone did it in defense of Irvine.

You must not be reading my posts in entirety. I've always said Irvine is desirable and has a lot of downward price resistance. Going forward in the next few years, I see more potential downside than upside for Irvine RE. I am in agreement with Panda that a 10% - 15% decline is possible in the next 4/5 years.

Regarding FCBs, I've been saying for awhile that not only is the incoming number declining, some FCBs are starting to sell. I am from a FCB family and this is what we see in our circle. This could get much worse if in an economic down cycle. We are 10 years into this recovery/expansion. We are seeing signs of a recession coming.

Now is not the time to get in.

If Irvine goes down 10-15%...the rest of the country would be in serious trouble.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 25, 2019, 11:24:34 AM
If Irvine goes down 10-15%...the rest of the country would be in serious trouble.

Yeah I agree. I see what Andrew Yang sees. He has a very valid point.

30% of malls and retails are closing in the next 4 years. The majority of the 2.5 million call center workers will get wiped out in the next 2 years. 3.5 million truck drivers will start to get hit in 5 years. AI is already replacing many office workers including mine. Self driving cars will hit millions of people driving taxi/ubers. 94% of jobs created since 2006 are temp/gig/contractor jobs with no real growth.These things will have profound impact on the economy. Housing is not immune from the overall economy.


Things seems okay now because we are still in a bull market. But it's going to get bad once the economy turns. It's coming, we are 10 years into this expansion. Good times cannot last forever.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 25, 2019, 11:43:50 AM
Irvine is not wealth concentrated like Newport Beach. Irvine is a young working class city with median age under 35. FCBs played a big part in pushing up Irvine home prices. Now that FCBs are starting to decline, It will affect home prices.

I dunno. The people I know who live in Shady, Hidden Canyon and the "elite" homes up in Orchard Hills are pretty wealthy. There are tons of doctors, tech, business owners who live in Irvine.

Just the fact that Irvine has an enclave like Shady Canyon shows how much wealth there is here.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 25, 2019, 11:51:52 AM
There is a lot of self loathing when it comes to Irvine - proximity bias

I was the one who mentioned this forum is littered w posts like “for 3-4-5 million I would rather live in Newport / cdm near the ocean etc “ whenever mention of expensive new home sales in irvine is made

But I have learned over the years , not to fight actual transactional data - proof is in the pudding .

The only reality is the tape everything else is opinions ...
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 25, 2019, 12:43:50 PM
If Irvine goes down 10-15%...the rest of the country would be in serious trouble.

Yeah I agree. I see what Andrew Yang sees. He has a very valid point.

30% of malls and retails are closing in the next 4 years. The majority of the 2.5 million call center workers will get wiped out in the next 2 years. 3.5 million truck drivers will start to get hit in 5 years. AI is already replacing many office workers including mine. Self driving cars will hit millions of people driving taxi/ubers. 94% of jobs created since 2006 are temp/gig/contractor jobs with no real growth.These things will have profound impact on the economy. Housing is not immune from the overall economy.


Things seems okay now because we are still in a bull market. But it's going to get bad once the economy turns. It's coming, we are 10 years into this expansion. Good times cannot last forever.



Just going to put a data point out there....Australia hasn't been in a recession for 30+ years.  So never say that the expansion can't go on longer than it has before.  If anything, the US will become a slower growing country with less growth volatility. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on April 25, 2019, 01:29:27 PM
There are tons of doctors, tech, business owners who live in Irvine.

Yes, I know a lot of folks in this demographic (under 40, working professionals etc).   The problem is, even these people aren't going to be snatching up 2 million dollar houses.   A well paying tech job + another job maybe gets you 200-300k a year.   Maybe some younger doctors I know are making over 350k but they also have some debt as well.   A lot of these folks have one or two kids as well, which makes it hard to justify spending money on a huge house as they are trying to establish financial stability.   The point i'm trying to make is yes, there are lots of people that will keep the sub million market quite hot in Irvine even if FCBs stop coming in, but the high end is going to suffer quite a bit. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 25, 2019, 01:59:09 PM
Just going to put a data point out there....Australia hasn't been in a recession for 30+ years.  So never say that the expansion can't go on longer than it has before.  If anything, the US will become a slower growing country with less growth volatility.

For that to be a valid data point, first you have to establish why a parallel can be drawn between Australia and USA. These are two very different economy both in structure and size.

Also things are changing rapidly. Here is Bloomberg - Australia's Economy Isn't Immune From Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-07/australia-s-economy-isn-t-immune-from-recession

And more current news - Australia falls into per-capita recession as growth tumbles
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-falls-into-per-capita-recession-as-growth-tumbles-20190306-p5122r.html
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 25, 2019, 02:08:59 PM
There are tons of doctors, tech, business owners who live in Irvine.

Yes, I know a lot of folks in this demographic (under 40, working professionals etc).   The problem is, even these people aren't going to be snatching up 2 million dollar houses.   A well paying tech job + another job maybe gets you 200-300k a year.   Maybe some younger doctors I know are making over 350k but they also have some debt as well.   A lot of these folks have one or two kids as well, which makes it hard to justify spending money on a huge house as they are trying to establish financial stability.   The point i'm trying to make is yes, there are lots of people that will keep the sub million market quite hot in Irvine even if FCBs stop coming in, but the high end is going to suffer quite a bit.

Another topic many people are not discussing is that we are very likely heading towards single payer health care system. Doctors are going to be forced to take a huge salary cut. This is why only 48%of doctors support Medicare for all.


Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 25, 2019, 06:29:39 PM
ok here is a prediction - and use your own judgment but this is what data shows to me


We had a good March are now back to probably 2 percent gdp growth for q1 from what was going to be less than half percent in feb

Stock market right now is forecasting 10 percent earnings growth for 2020 . If you hold stocks in your portfolio (index funds atleast ) , then you are implicitly assuming that there is no recession coming REGARDLESS of how it might feel to you otherwise .

I find it useful not to follow feelings or any economic prognosticators who use fancy words or any gold bugs who think the world is coming to an end. 

The “tape” is the best forecaster we have. You think the Fed knows it because they are smart ? Not really . They s—t in their pants last year when equities tanked. Now they are trying to justify it using Mumbo jumbo models as to why they stopped hiking ...

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on April 25, 2019, 06:33:53 PM
What is your prediction?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: AW on April 25, 2019, 06:53:44 PM
What is your prediction?
(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/46358331.jpg)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 25, 2019, 07:18:40 PM
What is your prediction?

NO ECONOMIC RECESSION

But there will be market consolidation around where we are - probably a dip in the summer — which will get bought

So if ppl waiting for a actual recession to buy a house , you may be waiting for a long long time .

 Buying a house may still not make financial sense for many - but THATS a different decision. I am talking specifically about use of recession as a catalyst to buy.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on April 26, 2019, 12:46:25 PM
What is your prediction?

NO ECONOMIC RECESSION

But there will be market consolidation around where we are - probably a dip in the summer — which will get bought

So if ppl waiting for a actual recession to buy a house , you may be waiting for a long long time .

 Buying a house may still not make financial sense for many - but THATS a different decision. I am talking specifically about use of recession as a catalyst to buy.

My point was, even without a recession, you can still have a major housing downturn in the 1.5+ market if the FCB dry up.   Even in a booming economy, salaries in OC aren't going to support the glut of huge expensive houses we have.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 26, 2019, 12:55:58 PM
What is your prediction?

NO ECONOMIC RECESSION

But there will be market consolidation around where we are - probably a dip in the summer — which will get bought

So if ppl waiting for a actual recession to buy a house , you may be waiting for a long long time .

 Buying a house may still not make financial sense for many - but THATS a different decision. I am talking specifically about use of recession as a catalyst to buy.

My point was, even without a recession, you can still have a major housing downturn in the 1.5+ market if the FCB dry up.   Even in a booming economy, salaries in OC aren't going to support the glut of huge expensive houses we have.

What % of the Irvine market is supported by *Chinese* FCBs?

I just think there is a wide variety of buyers for Irvine beyond just that one demographic.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 26, 2019, 01:15:51 PM
What is your prediction?

NO ECONOMIC RECESSION

But there will be market consolidation around where we are - probably a dip in the summer — which will get bought

So if ppl waiting for a actual recession to buy a house , you may be waiting for a long long time .

 Buying a house may still not make financial sense for many - but THATS a different decision. I am talking specifically about use of recession as a catalyst to buy.

My point was, even without a recession, you can still have a major housing downturn in the 1.5+ market if the FCB dry up.   Even in a booming economy, salaries in OC aren't going to support the glut of huge expensive houses we have.

What % of the Irvine market is supported by *Chinese* FCBs?

I just think there is a wide variety of buyers for Irvine beyond just that one demographic.

I myself had this misconception that FCBs were biggest proportion of high end buyers till I talked to actual people doing the buying

It is diverse mix - doctors from hoag, small business owners that CV mentioned , tech people , mgmt consultants , finance types
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 26, 2019, 02:48:05 PM
What is your prediction?

NO ECONOMIC RECESSION

But there will be market consolidation around where we are - probably a dip in the summer — which will get bought

So if ppl waiting for a actual recession to buy a house , you may be waiting for a long long time .

 Buying a house may still not make financial sense for many - but THATS a different decision. I am talking specifically about use of recession as a catalyst to buy.

My point was, even without a recession, you can still have a major housing downturn in the 1.5+ market if the FCB dry up.   Even in a booming economy, salaries in OC aren't going to support the glut of huge expensive houses we have.

What % of the Irvine market is supported by *Chinese* FCBs?

I just think there is a wide variety of buyers for Irvine beyond just that one demographic.

I myself had this misconception that FCBs were biggest proportion of high end buyers till I talked to actual people doing the buying

It is diverse mix - doctors from hoag, small business owners that CV mentioned , tech people , mgmt consultants , finance types

“In Southern California and primarily, Orange County and even more significantly Irvine, the foreign buyer and principally, the Chinese foreign buyer, first and second generations, made up 75 percent to 80 percent of the marketplace,” Larry Webb, CEO of New Home Co., recently told investors. “And certainly, in the second half of last year, that buyer group was reduced significantly.”

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/03/01/southern-california-homebuilders-slash-construction-10-as-luxury-market-chinese-buyers-fade/

But hey, maybe IHO and fortune11 know more than Larry Webb, CEO of New Home Co.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 26, 2019, 03:16:02 PM
What is your prediction?

NO ECONOMIC RECESSION

But there will be market consolidation around where we are - probably a dip in the summer — which will get bought

So if ppl waiting for a actual recession to buy a house , you may be waiting for a long long time .

 Buying a house may still not make financial sense for many - but THATS a different decision. I am talking specifically about use of recession as a catalyst to buy.

My point was, even without a recession, you can still have a major housing downturn in the 1.5+ market if the FCB dry up.   Even in a booming economy, salaries in OC aren't going to support the glut of huge expensive houses we have.

One of my clients got out bid on a $1.4m home in Baker Ranch by a FCB recently.  FCB are still out there and buying, just not as many.  Also, many of them are using asset based loans to make their purchases (i.e. put more 50% or more down and then get a higher rate ARM type loan for the remainder and move over the cash to pay it off).
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 26, 2019, 03:39:56 PM
What is your prediction?

NO ECONOMIC RECESSION

But there will be market consolidation around where we are - probably a dip in the summer — which will get bought

So if ppl waiting for a actual recession to buy a house , you may be waiting for a long long time .

 Buying a house may still not make financial sense for many - but THATS a different decision. I am talking specifically about use of recession as a catalyst to buy.

My point was, even without a recession, you can still have a major housing downturn in the 1.5+ market if the FCB dry up.   Even in a booming economy, salaries in OC aren't going to support the glut of huge expensive houses we have.

What % of the Irvine market is supported by *Chinese* FCBs?

I just think there is a wide variety of buyers for Irvine beyond just that one demographic.

I myself had this misconception that FCBs were biggest proportion of high end buyers till I talked to actual people doing the buying

It is diverse mix - doctors from hoag, small business owners that CV mentioned , tech people , mgmt consultants , finance types

“In Southern California and primarily, Orange County and even more significantly Irvine, the foreign buyer and principally, the Chinese foreign buyer, first and second generations, made up 75 percent to 80 percent of the marketplace,” Larry Webb, CEO of New Home Co., recently told investors. “And certainly, in the second half of last year, that buyer group was reduced significantly.”

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/03/01/southern-california-homebuilders-slash-construction-10-as-luxury-market-chinese-buyers-fade/

But hey, maybe IHO and fortune11 know more than Larry Webb, CEO of New Home Co.

First of all I don’t understand his comment - is he calling “second generation “  Asian Americans foreigners ?  Must be a trump supporter :) 

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on April 26, 2019, 03:52:01 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 26, 2019, 04:24:15 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Everything was bleak in the fourth quarter . Let’s see what the same ppl say in May on their earnings calls ...
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 26, 2019, 05:54:55 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Everything was bleak in the fourth quarter . Let’s see what the same ppl say in May on their earnings calls ...

A Market Correction is an Opportunity


“A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.”

Warren Buffett


This can be applies to all asset class including housing.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on April 26, 2019, 07:13:24 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Everything was bleak in the fourth quarter . Let’s see what the same ppl say in May on their earnings calls ...

A Market Correction is an Opportunity


“A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.”

Warren Buffett


This can be applies to all asset class including housing.

* Financial crisis he got deals that an average person didn’t have the opportunity to participate and buy. (For example banks)

Do you buy everything on sale?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 26, 2019, 09:01:19 PM
The principles remain constant for Buffet. He truly lives by his words.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on April 27, 2019, 12:25:11 AM
The principles remain constant for Buffet. He truly lives by his words.

It’s easier to say when your top .05% like in the world. It’s like saying take the risk and buy low. (In actuality we don’t know what low is)

He bought stocks/preferred stocks pennies of the dollar. (Only if we had the opportunity to get the same deal.) Not to get technical, but you need buyers to stablelize a falling market.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on April 27, 2019, 07:45:34 AM
Btw - he sold his house in California like I want to say last year. (Is that a sign? I don’t know) Why would you sell of the RE market is going up?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: fortune11 on April 27, 2019, 09:58:36 AM
this is why I love this discussion -- both eyephone and CV are correct

Buffet -- got breaks at every step -- used his dads political connections and then had the ultimate jackpot of working with Charlie munger, the genius behind the operation.  he was also fortunate to build his business when interest rates were high and value investing was something that actually yielded tangible gains as opposed to the liquidity driven markets we have now.  He preaches an innocent game but witness how he used his blue chip name to get deals none of us can even dream about.

So I generally heavily discount whatever these famous people like Buffet have to say because they got breaks none of us will ever get. Same goes for Bill Gates etc.

I also give eye phone credit for catching the downturn early on late 2017 or early 2018 when most others here were not focusing on it as much. 

But to CV's point -- one cannot live in the past.  Whats done is done, SUNK COST.  If there are better deals to be had, now is the time to use the attractive mortgage rates to use them.   

Again if you hold stocks in your portfolio at this moment, doesn't matter what else you say on this forum -- you implicitly believe that there will be no recession this year or most of next year

And anyone who claims to know what will happen past 2020 is pure conjecture and fantasy. 

All we can do is react to data and early leading indicators.  thats where I look at interest rates forward curve, homebuilder stocks, Fed posture , etc.   And hence my belief that we are bottoming out here on a macro level. 

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCLuvr on April 27, 2019, 12:41:12 PM
Bottoming out or towards the end of this expansion cycle?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 27, 2019, 02:49:15 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 29, 2019, 09:07:46 AM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa. :)



Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on April 29, 2019, 09:14:48 AM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa. :)

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: talkirvine on April 29, 2019, 08:41:24 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa. :)

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

Home owners can still write interest payment off their taxable incomes, just with a new lower limit since 2018.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on April 29, 2019, 09:37:13 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa. :)

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.

Home owners can still write interest payment off their taxable incomes, just with a new lower limit since 2018.

True. But the salt deduction.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 30, 2019, 11:46:03 AM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa. :)

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.


I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 30, 2019, 12:38:48 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa. :)

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.


I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).

Rates, across the board did a run up pretty significant mid summer to late last year. Buyers did hold out, sellers gave little discount to their listing. If this is any indication, it goes back to USCcpa noted before is a more balance temperaments of buying and selling. No bubbles to pop here.

I can see holding out longer from pulling the triggers may not works in many circumstances.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on April 30, 2019, 02:00:50 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa. :)

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.


I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).

Rates, across the board did a run up pretty significant mid summer to late last year. Buyers did hold out, sellers gave little discount to their listing. If this is any indication, it goes back to USCcpa noted before is a more balance temperaments of buying and selling. No bubbles to pop here.

I can see holding out longer from pulling the triggers may not works in many circumstances.

That’s your opinion. Check out the recent news regarding SF real estate market.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 30, 2019, 02:23:34 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa. :)

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.


I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).

Rates, across the board did a run up pretty significant mid summer to late last year. Buyers did hold out, sellers gave little discount to their listing. If this is any indication, it goes back to USCcpa noted before is a more balance temperaments of buying and selling. No bubbles to pop here.

I can see holding out longer from pulling the triggers may not works in many circumstances.

That’s your opinion. Check out the recent news regarding SF real estate market.

We are on TalkIrvine talking about Irvine are we not?

Irvine, no bubbles to pop. Let’s be very specific.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on April 30, 2019, 02:45:13 PM

Jokes aside , someone should ask toll brothers for high end homes not the Irvine company

Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/toll-brothers-orders-plunge-as-california-move-up-buyers-vanish

"California orders took a hit, in part, because Chinese buyers are getting scarce as China tightens controls on capital outflows. This is not just an issue for Toll but for anybody selling homes to the Chinese,"

Hence why I'm seeing more FCB use asset based loans from Chinese banks like Cathy, East West, and Sterling.  As long as they put 50% or more down they are good to go because to the bank a sub 50% LTV loan on an Irvine home is about as safe of a loan as you can get.  Then the FCBs trickle in cash from China and pay off the loan....easy peasy.

There is always a way to bring money over and buy.

Irvine, has been and will be always desirable choice for properties ownership, if one's can stomach the high tax and high hoa. :)

Before people were writing all the taxes off and not no more.
Believe it or not, the tax write off drove the real estate market.


I do agree that the SALT $10k deduction had some kind of effect on real estate, but I believe the rising interest rates had a more significant impact.  The reason I believe this is because I had many buyers head to the sidelines when rates were in the high 4s and all of them have either now bought a home this year or are actively looking.  When I asked them why they came back to the market they all said the rates were much lower (this was when rates hit 4%).

Rates, across the board did a run up pretty significant mid summer to late last year. Buyers did hold out, sellers gave little discount to their listing. If this is any indication, it goes back to USCcpa noted before is a more balance temperaments of buying and selling. No bubbles to pop here.

I can see holding out longer from pulling the triggers may not works in many circumstances.

That’s your opinion. Check out the recent news regarding SF real estate market.

We are on TalkIrvine talking about Irvine are we not?

Irvine, no bubbles to pop. Let’s be very specific.

It’s just another sign/indicator regarding housing market.

Bay Area median home price drops for first time in 7 years
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Bay-Area-median-home-price-drops-for-first-time-13804345.php
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 30, 2019, 09:29:39 PM
You might now officially inherit the nick name “Dr. Doom”.


Look up in the blue sky once in awhile, things are not that bad. Well, at least we have lovely weather.  ;)


Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on May 01, 2019, 02:44:13 PM
You might now officially inherit the nick name “Dr. Doom”.


Look up in the blue sky once in awhile, things are not that bad. Well, at least we have lovely weather.  ;)

Why resort to calling people with nick names? Facts are facts. Facts don't care about your feelings.

What exactly is the benefit of turning TI into an echo chamber?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 01, 2019, 03:15:21 PM
You might now officially inherit the nick name “Dr. Doom”.


Look up in the blue sky once in awhile, things are not that bad. Well, at least we have lovely weather.  ;)

Why resort to calling people with nick names? Facts are facts. Facts don't care about your feelings.

What exactly is the benefit of turning TI into an echo chamber?

Dr. Doom = Nouriel Roubini (Economist) a renowned economist that called correctly in the last bust in financial crisis.

He layed out several steps that could lead to the next financial crisis. If this happen, it will affects everything, and across the globe.

I am in a mindset that you still need a home to live in no matter what, if you can afford it now and comfortable with your payments. Now is the best time to get it because most herding mentality is doing what everyone is doing. Either waiting or rushing in. When you goes against the flow, and use it to your advantage, you will get a better deal, better assets, and better location.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: OCAgentGold on May 08, 2019, 02:54:03 AM
This whole board is pretty funny with its deep analysis. I makes clear one thing for sure, most are not native and most are people who are book taught in regards to real estate. Just remember this, Don Bren is 5-8 years in front of you at all times, he engineered the the Chinese immigration and he has the next wave ramping up now. The only people in Irvine who have a real estate bottom are spec buyers who cant afford to carry their loans during typical mild slow downs that last 12-18 months. Everyone still has PTSD from 2007-2011. That will not happen again unless YOU personally stuck your neck out.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2019, 08:01:51 AM
This whole board is pretty funny with its deep analysis. I makes clear one thing for sure, most are not native and most are people who are book taught in regards to real estate. Just remember this, Don Bren is 5-8 years in front of you at all times, he engineered the the Chinese immigration and he has the next wave ramping up now. The only people in Irvine who have a real estate bottom are spec buyers who cant afford to carry their loans during typical mild slow downs that last 12-18 months. Everyone still has PTSD from 2007-2011. That will not happen again unless YOU personally stuck your neck out.

I've been told my experience of being in Irvine isn't as important as data. All I know is that the data did not accurately predict what happened during the last downturn, so that's why I am cautious when it comes to people advising others to wait for some drop in prices that doesn't really equal to how much they would hope.

My experience says that real estate, especially in Irvine, can be unpredictable in respect to range of highs/lows but it is cyclical in that it eventually rebounds. That's why I focus on affordability and stability, if you can make the payments and are able to stay for 5-10 years, you should find the home you like and just live in it.

Looking back at the several homes we chose not to buy, it's tough because they appreciated much higher than expected (that includes Laguna Altura which we were never really serious about buying). Had we not waited, we would be in a better position equity-wise but we are satisfied with the home/location we ended up with so that makes up for it. But the one lesson that we learned is you can't time the bottom perfectly, try not to compromise on location/floorplan and get the house you can afford when you can.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 08:16:16 AM
This whole board is pretty funny with its deep analysis. I makes clear one thing for sure, most are not native and most are people who are book taught in regards to real estate. Just remember this, Don Bren is 5-8 years in front of you at all times, he engineered the the Chinese immigration and he has the next wave ramping up now. The only people in Irvine who have a real estate bottom are spec buyers who cant afford to carry their loans during typical mild slow downs that last 12-18 months. Everyone still has PTSD from 2007-2011. That will not happen again unless YOU personally stuck your neck out.

I would agree that Bren/TIC was on the forefront of bringing in Asian residential buyers but it is also behind the curve on Asian businesses.  It took them years to realize that no one wanted to go to chain restaurants anymore...It let Diamond Jamboree and the Mitsuwa shopping center establish itself before it realized that ethic businesses can be super important.  It has done a decent job of catching up but it shows me that they don't have a great understanding of the Asian/ethic market.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2019, 09:46:46 AM
Devils' advocate:

TIC wants long term tenants with good financial backing, history and track record. Many Asian businesses (esp the mom/pop ones) can't provide that. That's why the first ones you saw go into TIC centers were 99 Ranch, Sam Woo, etc because those businesses had what TIC was looking for.

The smaller ones get into non-TIC centers including Diamond Jamboree, Northwood Village Center, Heritage Plaza and the Ranch 99 center on Jeffrey/Walnut.

I'm not sure it was a matter of being behind the curve, just financial wariness.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 09:52:44 AM
From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It’s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it’s not all about the money.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kings on May 08, 2019, 11:02:29 AM
Devils' advocate:

TIC wants long term tenants with good financial backing, history and track record. Many Asian businesses (esp the mom/pop ones) can't provide that. That's why the first ones you saw go into TIC centers were 99 Ranch, Sam Woo, etc because those businesses had what TIC was looking for.

The smaller ones get into non-TIC centers including Diamond Jamboree, Northwood Village Center, Heritage Plaza and the Ranch 99 center on Jeffrey/Walnut.

I'm not sure it was a matter of being behind the curve, just financial wariness.

this is correct.  for anyone not familiar with tic commercial leases, they require substantial financial history and in many cases large security deposits.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 11:19:52 AM
Without calling out the name of the business. There’s one that comes to my mind that doesnt fit that criteria. (I’m sure if I want to waste my time I can think of others)

It’s all about max $sq footage
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2019, 11:29:59 AM
And it goes the other way, these smaller businesses may not want to lease from TIC because their financial requirements are too high and it won't be profitable. From what I can remember when dealing with TIC, the percentage of sales alone was a big deterrent.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 12:36:10 PM
Devils' advocate:

TIC wants long term tenants with good financial backing, history and track record. Many Asian businesses (esp the mom/pop ones) can't provide that. That's why the first ones you saw go into TIC centers were 99 Ranch, Sam Woo, etc because those businesses had what TIC was looking for.

The smaller ones get into non-TIC centers including Diamond Jamboree, Northwood Village Center, Heritage Plaza and the Ranch 99 center on Jeffrey/Walnut.

I'm not sure it was a matter of being behind the curve, just financial wariness.

I don't know how true this is considering they failed to get Mitsuwa, HK market, the first 85 Deg in US, the first Meet Fresh in US, BCD, Karu Sushi, Capital Seafood (I know one came later in Spectrum)...I think it's a fundamental misunderstanding of foreign/ethnic businesses.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 12:36:58 PM
And it goes the other way, these smaller businesses may not want to lease from TIC because their financial requirements are too high and it won't be profitable. From what I can remember when dealing with TIC, the percentage of sales alone was a big deterrent.

Diamond Jamboree is not a tenant friendly place.  I know some people who rented from the same landlord up in DB.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 12:39:11 PM
From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It’s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it’s not all about the money.

It's not really about that...it's about the percentage of gross revenue TIC gets...Marie Calendar was barely getting by. 

I also know that TIC is not super happy about Sam Woo because they have a cash business and thus "may" underreport their earnings to avoid taxes and TIC.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on May 08, 2019, 12:46:58 PM
I don't know how true this is considering they failed to get Mitsuwa, HK market, the first 85 Deg in US, the first Meet Fresh in US, BCD, Karu Sushi, Capital Seafood (I know one came later in Spectrum)...I think it's a

Yes, 85 degree was turned down repeatedly by TIC. One 85 degree's CFOs wrote a big critical article in the Chinese newspaper hammering TIC. It was big news in the Chinese community because many wanted 85 degree.

TIC's fundamental misunderstanding of foreign/ethnic businesses is real.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 12:53:19 PM
I don't know how true this is considering they failed to get Mitsuwa, HK market, the first 85 Deg in US, the first Meet Fresh in US, BCD, Karu Sushi, Capital Seafood (I know one came later in Spectrum)...I think it's a

Yes, 85 degree was turned down repeatedly by TIC. One 85 degree's CFOs wrote a big critical article in the Chinese newspaper hammering TIC. It was big news in the Chinese community because many wanted 85 degree.

TIC's fundamental misunderstanding of foreign/ethnic businesses is real.

Of course...this pales in comparison to Five Point's ignorance of Asian businesses.  I mean GP is probably like 70% Asian...they should be opening up a Diamond Jamboree retail mall...maybe two in the area.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 01:07:39 PM
No matter how you slice it and dice it. Profits over relationships and consumers. Kind of sad if you ask me.

I’m sure there are reits that can choose not to renew leases to get more money. But they keep them because it’s an achorntenant or other reasons.

If they were not making any money. Than that’s another story.

From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It’s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it’s not all about the money.

It's not really about that...it's about the percentage of gross revenue TIC gets...Marie Calendar was barely getting by. 

I also know that TIC is not super happy about Sam Woo because they have a cash business and thus "may" underreport their earnings to avoid taxes and TIC.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 01:09:11 PM
No matter how you slice it and dice it. Profits over relationships and consumers. Kind of sad if you ask me.

I’m sure there are reits that can choose not to renew leases to get more money. But they keep them because it’s an achorntenant or other reasons.

If they were not making any money. Than that’s another story.

From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It’s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it’s not all about the money.

It's not really about that...it's about the percentage of gross revenue TIC gets...Marie Calendar was barely getting by. 

I also know that TIC is not super happy about Sam Woo because they have a cash business and thus "may" underreport their earnings to avoid taxes and TIC.

I don't understand this POV...if Marie Calendar was such an important business...it would have more business.  But neither it nor Denny's attract the new population in Irvine, not sure why they should stay.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 01:34:34 PM
No matter how you slice it and dice it. Profits over relationships and consumers. Kind of sad if you ask me.

I’m sure there are reits that can choose not to renew leases to get more money. But they keep them because it’s an achorntenant or other reasons.

If they were not making any money. Than that’s another story.

From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It’s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it’s not all about the money.

It's not really about that...it's about the percentage of gross revenue TIC gets...Marie Calendar was barely getting by. 

I also know that TIC is not super happy about Sam Woo because they have a cash business and thus "may" underreport their earnings to avoid taxes and TIC.

I don't understand this POV...if Marie Calendar was such an important business...it would have more business.  But neither it nor Denny's attract the new population in Irvine, not sure why they should stay.

That’s your opinion. To be honest in my humble opinion Marie Calendar’s pies taste good. (for the record I don’t always eat pies or maybe I do. Lol)

So what’s ther term new population mean?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 01:41:32 PM
No matter how you slice it and dice it. Profits over relationships and consumers. Kind of sad if you ask me.

I’m sure there are reits that can choose not to renew leases to get more money. But they keep them because it’s an achorntenant or other reasons.

If they were not making any money. Than that’s another story.

From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It’s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it’s not all about the money.

It's not really about that...it's about the percentage of gross revenue TIC gets...Marie Calendar was barely getting by. 

I also know that TIC is not super happy about Sam Woo because they have a cash business and thus "may" underreport their earnings to avoid taxes and TIC.

I don't understand this POV...if Marie Calendar was such an important business...it would have more business.  But neither it nor Denny's attract the new population in Irvine, not sure why they should stay.

That’s your opinion. To be honest in my humble opinion Marie Calendar’s pies taste better than other bakeries.

So what’s ther term new population mean?

Of course it's my opinion and I love Marie Calendar pies too but money talks.  If Marie Calendar still attracts business, it would still be there.  Clearly it does not, I mean Marie Calendar did declare BK in 2011 and close a bunch of stores. 

New population...younger and Asian.  It's demographics. 

Quote
Removing the family-casual chain from its portfolio is in line with the Irvine Co.’s post-recession leasing strategy.

Last year, the same thing happened to El Cholo Mexican restaurant. It closed after a 15-year run on Alton Parkway in Irvine because it couldn’t renew its lease with the Irvine Co. It was replaced by a revamped version of California Pizza Kitchen.

Over the last five years, the Newport Beach developer and landlord has replaced old-school restaurant brands with chef-driven and independent chains and bistros.

“Our Orange County customer is asking for unique, one-of-a-kind type concepts,” Dan Sheridan, an Irvine Co. executive, told the Register in 2012. Sheridan left the company in 2014.

https://www.ocregister.com/2016/01/02/irvine-co-forces-closure-of-a-marie-callenders-in-irvine/

It wasn't exactly great before it closed either

https://www.yelp.com/biz/marie-callenders-restaurant-and-bakery-irvine
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 01:48:06 PM
Bingo! You said it money talks. That’s what I said all along.

No matter how you slice it and dice it. Profits over relationships and consumers. Kind of sad if you ask me.

I’m sure there are reits that can choose not to renew leases to get more money. But they keep them because it’s an achorntenant or other reasons.

If they were not making any money. Than that’s another story.

From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It’s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it’s not all about the money.

It's not really about that...it's about the percentage of gross revenue TIC gets...Marie Calendar was barely getting by. 

I also know that TIC is not super happy about Sam Woo because they have a cash business and thus "may" underreport their earnings to avoid taxes and TIC.

I don't understand this POV...if Marie Calendar was such an important business...it would have more business.  But neither it nor Denny's attract the new population in Irvine, not sure why they should stay.

That’s your opinion. To be honest in my humble opinion Marie Calendar’s pies taste better than other bakeries.

So what’s ther term new population mean?

Of course it's my opinion and I love Marie Calendar pies too but money talks.  If Marie Calendar still attracts business, it would still be there.  Clearly it does not, I mean Marie Calendar did declare BK in 2011 and close a bunch of stores. 

New population...younger and Asian.  It's demographics. 

Quote
Removing the family-casual chain from its portfolio is in line with the Irvine Co.’s post-recession leasing strategy.

Last year, the same thing happened to El Cholo Mexican restaurant. It closed after a 15-year run on Alton Parkway in Irvine because it couldn’t renew its lease with the Irvine Co. It was replaced by a revamped version of California Pizza Kitchen.

Over the last five years, the Newport Beach developer and landlord has replaced old-school restaurant brands with chef-driven and independent chains and bistros.

“Our Orange County customer is asking for unique, one-of-a-kind type concepts,” Dan Sheridan, an Irvine Co. executive, told the Register in 2012. Sheridan left the company in 2014.

https://www.ocregister.com/2016/01/02/irvine-co-forces-closure-of-a-marie-callenders-in-irvine/

It wasn't exactly great before it closed either

https://www.yelp.com/biz/marie-callenders-restaurant-and-bakery-irvine
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 01:51:21 PM
Bingo! You said it money talks. That’s what I said all along.


But it's not just about money...it about bringing in businesses that people want to go to.  Why have a bunch of stores/restaurant around for "nostalgia" purposes?  I love Marie Calendar pie but have never stepped into that particular MC.  Nor have I gone to Chili's, Outback, or Denny's.

Why would keeping MC around be good for customers?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 01:53:59 PM
They don’t just base it just on demographics. Using your theory there would only be Asian related business. Clearly that’s not true.

These are examples for fun and discussion purposes only.

Burrito place say bye. Noodle place coming. Sandwich shop say bye to be replaced by rice bowl shop.

(Btw This hasn’t happened)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 01:58:07 PM
They don’t just base it just on demographics. Using your theory there would only be Asian related business. Clearly that’s not true.

These are examples for fun and discussion purposes only. (What If theories)
Burrito place say bye. Noodle place coming. Sandwich shop say bye to be replaced by rice bowl shop.

(Btw This hasn’t happened)

It's not just Asian...it's also geared toward younger generation who want lighter and fresh foods as well as fusion type foods.  TIC has brought in places like Urban Plates, Snooze, Counter, Hopdaddy, Wokcano, etc.  as well as Chinese restaurants, Korean BBQ, and others.   

But ultimately...I don't get your point, shouldn't TIC be trying to bring in business that appeal to the demographics of the area?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2019, 02:00:30 PM
Bingo! You said it money talks. That’s what I said all along.


But it's not just about money...it about bringing in businesses that people want to go to.  Why have a bunch of stores/restaurant around for "nostalgia" purposes?  I love Marie Calendar pie but have never stepped into that particular MC.  Nor have I gone to Chili's, Outback, or Denny's.

Why would keeping MC around be good for customers?

This is all subjective. There is a big enough demographic in Irvine that likes those places you never go to.

I miss Jalapenos, MC, IHOP, Round Table, Soup Exchange (old school reference).
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 02:02:25 PM
Bingo! You said it money talks. That’s what I said all along.


But it's not just about money...it about bringing in businesses that people want to go to.  Why have a bunch of stores/restaurant around for "nostalgia" purposes?  I love Marie Calendar pie but have never stepped into that particular MC.  Nor have I gone to Chili's, Outback, or Denny's.

Why would keeping MC around be good for customers?

This is all subjective. There is a big enough demographic in Irvine that likes those places you never go to.

I miss Jalapenos, MC, IHOP, Round Table, Soup Exchange (old school reference).

Of course its subjective but again money talks...if those restaurants were doing great and TIC were getting good returns, why wouldn't they keep those restaurants? 

MC, IHOP, and Round Table are not just closing in IRvine...they are closing in a lot of places...shifting demographics that look for different types of food.

https://www.ocregister.com/2016/12/28/restaurant-closures-6-round-table-pizzas-in-orange-county-5-chevys-fresh-mex/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/02/21/applebees-ihop-closing-stores-parent-company-seeks-buy-more-brands/359553002/

https://www.businessinsider.com/applebees-ihop-close-up-to-120-restaurants-as-millennials-ditch-2018-2

Quote
In the past, executives have said that failed attempts to win over millennial diners is at least partially to blame for the brands' struggles, especially in the case of Applebee's.

"Over the past few years, the brand's set out to reposition or reinvent Applebee's as a modern bar and grill in overt pursuit of a more youthful and affluent demographic with a more independent or even sophisticated dining mindset, including a clear pendulum swing towards millennials," John Cywinski, Applebee's brand president, said in a call with investors last year.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: iacrenter on May 08, 2019, 02:08:02 PM
No matter how you slice it and dice it. Profits over relationships and consumers. Kind of sad if you ask me.

I’m sure there are reits that can choose not to renew leases to get more money. But they keep them because it’s an achorntenant or other reasons.

If they were not making any money. Than that’s another story.

From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It’s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it’s not all about the money.

It's not really about that...it's about the percentage of gross revenue TIC gets...Marie Calendar was barely getting by. 

I also know that TIC is not super happy about Sam Woo because they have a cash business and thus "may" underreport their earnings to avoid taxes and TIC.

I don't understand this POV...if Marie Calendar was such an important business...it would have more business.  But neither it nor Denny's attract the new population in Irvine, not sure why they should stay.

TIC was slow to make changes to their mall portfolio but overall  I’ve  been happy with the changes (minus losing Curry House). They poured money into revitalizing all their strip malls and at the same time updated the tenant mix to better serve the changing demographics.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 02:14:12 PM

TIC was slow to make changes to their mall portfolio but overall  I’ve  been happy with the changes (minus losing Curry House). They poured money into revitalizing all their strip malls and at the same time updated the tenant mix to better serve the changing demographics.

Still trying to figure out what happened to Curry House...it clearly had a plan to reopen and it was pretty popular.  Maybe it is moving to a non-TIC center.

TIC definitely getting better re younger/hipper/more ethic businesses....some good additions recently.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2019, 02:27:57 PM
It's not just Asian...it's also geared toward younger generation who want lighter and fresh foods as well as fusion type foods.  TIC has brought in places like Urban Plates, Snooze, Counter, Hopdaddy, Wokcano, etc.  as well as Chinese restaurants, Korean BBQ, and others.   

Eh, Urban is overpriced, Snooze is too fru-fru (I'll take Stacks instead), Counter and Hopdaddy are meh... and Wokcano straight up is the bleh.

There used to be a Veggie Grill in Crossroads that closed... that's a younger generation place.

I think for the most part TIC is just after the money... if you can afford the lease and the juice (yes... it's juice no matter how you look at it), TIC will take you.

I know from personal experience how TIC is like with leasing retail... and I've talked to other owners who mirror that sentiment.  So back to your point, it could be TIC's lack of vision but I also don't think some of these places people want in Irvine could afford it... that's why they open up in surrounding cities... or in the non-TIC retail centers.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 02:29:15 PM
No matter how you slice it and dice it. Profits over relationships and consumers. Kind of sad if you ask me.

I’m sure there are reits that can choose not to renew leases to get more money. But they keep them because it’s an achorntenant or other reasons.

If they were not making any money. Than that’s another story.

From an outsider looking in. It looks like they are trying to get max dollar per sqft. It’s really sad what happened to Marrie Calenders.

Sometimes it’s not all about the money.

It's not really about that...it's about the percentage of gross revenue TIC gets...Marie Calendar was barely getting by. 

I also know that TIC is not super happy about Sam Woo because they have a cash business and thus "may" underreport their earnings to avoid taxes and TIC.

I don't understand this POV...if Marie Calendar was such an important business...it would have more business.  But neither it nor Denny's attract the new population in Irvine, not sure why they should stay.

TIC was slow to make changes to their mall portfolio but overall  I’ve  been happy with the changes (minus losing Curry House). They poured money into revitalizing all their strip malls and at the same time updated the tenant mix to better serve the changing demographics.

Yeah what’s up with Curry House! It’s sad what happens to them. really sad
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2019, 02:30:36 PM
Bingo! You said it money talks. That’s what I said all along.


But it's not just about money...it about bringing in businesses that people want to go to.  Why have a bunch of stores/restaurant around for "nostalgia" purposes?  I love Marie Calendar pie but have never stepped into that particular MC.  Nor have I gone to Chili's, Outback, or Denny's.

Why would keeping MC around be good for customers?

This is all subjective. There is a big enough demographic in Irvine that likes those places you never go to.

I miss Jalapenos, MC, IHOP, Round Table, Soup Exchange (old school reference).

Of course its subjective but again money talks...if those restaurants were doing great and TIC were getting good returns, why wouldn't they keep those restaurants? 

MC, IHOP, and Round Table are not just closing in IRvine...they are closing in a lot of places...shifting demographics that look for different types of food.

https://www.ocregister.com/2016/12/28/restaurant-closures-6-round-table-pizzas-in-orange-county-5-chevys-fresh-mex/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/02/21/applebees-ihop-closing-stores-parent-company-seeks-buy-more-brands/359553002/

https://www.businessinsider.com/applebees-ihop-close-up-to-120-restaurants-as-millennials-ditch-2018-2

Quote
In the past, executives have said that failed attempts to win over millennial diners is at least partially to blame for the brands' struggles, especially in the case of Applebee's.

"Over the past few years, the brand's set out to reposition or reinvent Applebee's as a modern bar and grill in overt pursuit of a more youthful and affluent demographic with a more independent or even sophisticated dining mindset, including a clear pendulum swing towards millennials," John Cywinski, Applebee's brand president, said in a call with investors last year.


I am with you but that's what I'm trying to say. 10-20 years ago, these hip Asian places you like had poor financials while these staple chains were doing well. So it wasn't just TIC's lack of vision, it was the dollar bill.

Now that these places you like can prove their financial value, TIC is giving them a chance (but I bet you they are fleecing them).
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 02:34:12 PM
Say no more. You said it not me.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 02:36:06 PM

TIC was slow to make changes to their mall portfolio but overall  I’ve  been happy with the changes (minus losing Curry House). They poured money into revitalizing all their strip malls and at the same time updated the tenant mix to better serve the changing demographics.

Still trying to figure out what happened to Curry House...it clearly had a plan to reopen and it was pretty popular.  Maybe it is moving to a non-TIC center.

TIC definitely getting better re younger/hipper/more ethic businesses....some good additions recently.

So are you saying Chipotle should go? Since they are not an Asian Bysiness. I’m trying to understand your TIC tenant theory. (get a better understanding)

How about Taco Bell and Del taco?

[their corporate office is down the street. I’m sure they would like to know also]
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 02:45:42 PM

TIC was slow to make changes to their mall portfolio but overall  I’ve  been happy with the changes (minus losing Curry House). They poured money into revitalizing all their strip malls and at the same time updated the tenant mix to better serve the changing demographics.

Still trying to figure out what happened to Curry House...it clearly had a plan to reopen and it was pretty popular.  Maybe it is moving to a non-TIC center.

TIC definitely getting better re younger/hipper/more ethic businesses....some good additions recently.

So are you saying Chipotle should go? Since they are not an Asian Bysiness. I’m trying to understand your TIC tenant theory. (get a better understanding)

How about Taco Bell and Del taco?

[their corporate office is down the street. I’m sure they would like to know also]

Why do you keep harping on Asian businesses?  Bottom line is money and compability with local demographics...there is a reason why there is a ton of Asian business in RH, DB, and SG Valley while there are a ton of Korean business in Koreatown. 

Irvine is younger than it has been in the past and almost half of the population is Asian...you need to figure what appeals to those people.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 02:46:52 PM

TIC was slow to make changes to their mall portfolio but overall  I’ve  been happy with the changes (minus losing Curry House). They poured money into revitalizing all their strip malls and at the same time updated the tenant mix to better serve the changing demographics.

Still trying to figure out what happened to Curry House...it clearly had a plan to reopen and it was pretty popular.  Maybe it is moving to a non-TIC center.

TIC definitely getting better re younger/hipper/more ethic businesses....some good additions recently.

So are you saying Chipotle should go? Since they are not an Asian Bysiness. I’m trying to understand your TIC tenant theory. (get a better understanding)

How about Taco Bell and Del taco?

[their corporate office is down the street. I’m sure they would like to know also]

Why do you keep harping on Asian businesses?  Bottom line is money and compability with local demographics...there is a reason why there is a ton of Asian business in RH, DB, and SG Valley while there are a ton of Korean business in Koreatown. 

Irvine is younger than it has been in the past and almost half of the population is Asian...you need to figure what appeals to those people.

Because your brought up the term not me. Please answer the question.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 02:49:26 PM
It's not just Asian...it's also geared toward younger generation who want lighter and fresh foods as well as fusion type foods.  TIC has brought in places like Urban Plates, Snooze, Counter, Hopdaddy, Wokcano, etc.  as well as Chinese restaurants, Korean BBQ, and others.   

Eh, Urban is overpriced, Snooze is too fru-fru (I'll take Stacks instead), Counter and Hopdaddy are meh... and Wokcano straight up is the bleh.

There used to be a Veggie Grill in Crossroads that closed... that's a younger generation place.

I think for the most part TIC is just after the money... if you can afford the lease and the juice (yes... it's juice no matter how you look at it), TIC will take you.

I know from personal experience how TIC is like with leasing retail... and I've talked to other owners who mirror that sentiment.  So back to your point, it could be TIC's lack of vision but I also don't think some of these places people want in Irvine could afford it... that's why they open up in surrounding cities... or in the non-TIC retail centers.

I sort of agree with you on your assessment of the newer restaurants but they are quite popular.  Stacks is quite good as well.

Not every business succeed because they are catered to young people...but TIC are clearly trending to finding those type of businesses.

There are definitely good and bads with TIC...you can't beat how clean and well-kept the area is and accessible.  But they are bad landlords and moody. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 02:50:56 PM

TIC was slow to make changes to their mall portfolio but overall  I’ve  been happy with the changes (minus losing Curry House). They poured money into revitalizing all their strip malls and at the same time updated the tenant mix to better serve the changing demographics.

Still trying to figure out what happened to Curry House...it clearly had a plan to reopen and it was pretty popular.  Maybe it is moving to a non-TIC center.

TIC definitely getting better re younger/hipper/more ethic businesses....some good additions recently.

So are you saying Chipotle should go? Since they are not an Asian Bysiness. I’m trying to understand your TIC tenant theory. (get a better understanding)

How about Taco Bell and Del taco?

[their corporate office is down the street. I’m sure they would like to know also]

Why do you keep harping on Asian businesses?  Bottom line is money and compability with local demographics...there is a reason why there is a ton of Asian business in RH, DB, and SG Valley while there are a ton of Korean business in Koreatown. 

Irvine is younger than it has been in the past and almost half of the population is Asian...you need to figure what appeals to those people.

Because your brought up the term not me. Please answer the question.

I said the demographics of Irvine has grown younger and more Asian..so TIC is looking for businesses that cater to one or both of those things.

It's what a lot of businesses are trying to do.  Why is that difficult to understand?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 02:59:09 PM

TIC was slow to make changes to their mall portfolio but overall  I’ve  been happy with the changes (minus losing Curry House). They poured money into revitalizing all their strip malls and at the same time updated the tenant mix to better serve the changing demographics.

Still trying to figure out what happened to Curry House...it clearly had a plan to reopen and it was pretty popular.  Maybe it is moving to a non-TIC center.

TIC definitely getting better re younger/hipper/more ethic businesses....some good additions recently.

So are you saying Chipotle should go? Since they are not an Asian Bysiness. I’m trying to understand your TIC tenant theory. (get a better understanding)

How about Taco Bell and Del taco?

[their corporate office is down the street. I’m sure they would like to know also]

Why do you keep harping on Asian businesses?  Bottom line is money and compability with local demographics...there is a reason why there is a ton of Asian business in RH, DB, and SG Valley while there are a ton of Korean business in Koreatown. 

Irvine is younger than it has been in the past and almost half of the population is Asian...you need to figure what appeals to those people.

Because your brought up the term not me. Please answer the question.

I said the demographics of Irvine has grown younger and more Asian..so TIC is looking for businesses that cater to one or both of those things.

It's what a lot of businesses are trying to do.  Why is that difficult to understand?

I think your theory regarding catering to new domogrpahics  is not correct. Because obviously there are other type of restaurants. I think it’s a shame to spread your theory when it’s complete not true.

Do you think the companies I mentioned need Irvine? They can go anywhere and turn a profit. To be honest Irvine is lucky to have them there to give the people that work and live in Irvine and affordable option.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 03:08:49 PM

I think your theory regarding catering to new domogrpahics  is not correct. Because obviously there are other type of restaurants. I think it’s a shame to spread your theory when it’s complete not true.

Do you think the companies I mentioned need Irvine? They can go anywhere and turn a profit. To be honest Irvine is lucky to have them there to give the people that work and live in Irvine and affordable option.

Wait...what exactly is wrong with my theory?  It is something that clearly obvious...look at the newer places that have come in in the last 5 years?  Just look at the business they added to the Spectrum:

-- Hello Kitty Cafe, going from a pop-up to permanent shop, a first for the brand;
-- H&M clothing store;
-- STANCE, a socks and underwear store;
-- Gorjana, which sells locally designed jewelry;
-- 85 Degrees C Bakery Cafe, which offers gourmet bread, desserts and beverages;
-- BLKdot Coffee;
-- Afters Ice Cream;
-- Concrete Rose, a boutique clothier;
-- Falasophy, a Lebanese restaurant;
-- Robata Wasa, a Japanese food restaurant;
-- SoHa Living, a Hawaii-flavored home and gift store;
-- The Denim Lab jeans store;
-- Ra Yoga, which offers yoga classes and therapy; and
-- UnAffected, a woman's clothing store.

https://patch.com/california/lagunabeach/new-shops-opening-irvine-spectrum-center

The Marketplace used to be full of chain restaurant...now it has morphed to Urban Plates, Class 302, Ramen place, Koja, Wokcano, Snoonze, Hopdaddy.

The Northwood plaza has now two Korean restaurant and a sushi place. 

Culver Plaza has a ton of Asian places now.

I am completely lost at this point...I don't know what I said has anything to do with the viability of businesses in the other parts of the world.   

Again...I ask you..why would keeping Marie Calendar be better for customers?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 03:18:32 PM

I think your theory regarding catering to new domogrpahics  is not correct. Because obviously there are other type of restaurants. I think it’s a shame to spread your theory when it’s complete not true.

Do you think the companies I mentioned need Irvine? They can go anywhere and turn a profit. To be honest Irvine is lucky to have them there to give the people that work and live in Irvine and affordable option.

Wait...what exactly is wrong with my theory?  It is something that clearly obvious...look at the newer places that have come in in the last 5 years?  Just look at the business they added to the Spectrum:

-- Hello Kitty Cafe, going from a pop-up to permanent shop, a first for the brand;
-- H&M clothing store;
-- STANCE, a socks and underwear store;
-- Gorjana, which sells locally designed jewelry;
-- 85 Degrees C Bakery Cafe, which offers gourmet bread, desserts and beverages;
-- BLKdot Coffee;
-- Afters Ice Cream;
-- Concrete Rose, a boutique clothier;
-- Falasophy, a Lebanese restaurant;
-- Robata Wasa, a Japanese food restaurant;
-- SoHa Living, a Hawaii-flavored home and gift store;
-- The Denim Lab jeans store;
-- Ra Yoga, which offers yoga classes and therapy; and
-- UnAffected, a woman's clothing store.

https://patch.com/california/lagunabeach/new-shops-opening-irvine-spectrum-center

The Marketplace used to be full of chain restaurant...now it has morphed to Urban Plates, Class 302, Ramen place, Koja, Wokcano, Snoonze, Hopdaddy.

The Northwood plaza has now two Korean restaurant and a sushi place. 

Culver Plaza has a ton of Asian places now.

I am completely lost at this point...I don't know what I said has anything to do with the viability of businesses in the other parts of the world.   

Again...I ask you..why would keeping Marie Calendar be better for customers?

Your theory is completely wrong and unequivocal discrimitory. (It is even shocking that you think it’s correct. I dont even think TIC agrees with you as a matter of fact. You might be infringing on their brand name. For a minute you sounded like you work for TIC.)

We all know that a public company single location is greater than a small trendy business in Irvine regarding revenue. (there might be an outlier)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 03:23:56 PM

Your theory is completely wrong and unequivocal discrimitory. (It is even shocking that you think it’s correct. I dont even think TIC agrees with you as a matter of fact. You might be infringing on their brand name. For a minute you sounded like you work for TIC.)

We all know that a public company single location is greater than a small trendy business in Irvine regarding revenue. (there might be an outlier)

How is it wrong?  It's not an objective fact that TIC has been moving away from traditional chain restaurants/business to ones that appeal more to younger and/or Asian customers?  I just listed you a bunch of restaurants and shops clearly geared toward those customers. 

Why would it be discriminatory?  If you have an increased Asian population...it makes sense to bring in more Asian businesses/restaurants.  It's business 101...you cater to your customers.

I am confused as to why you are so offended by this patently obvious shift in business models.  It's not just TIC...go to South Coast Plaza...it's not a coincidence that there are signs in Chinese now.   

We are only talking about TIC's strategies in Irvine...I am not sure why anywhere else matters.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 08, 2019, 03:28:11 PM

I think your theory regarding catering to new domogrpahics  is not correct. Because obviously there are other type of restaurants. I think it’s a shame to spread your theory when it’s complete not true.

Do you think the companies I mentioned need Irvine? They can go anywhere and turn a profit. To be honest Irvine is lucky to have them there to give the people that work and live in Irvine and affordable option.

Wait...what exactly is wrong with my theory?  It is something that clearly obvious...look at the newer places that have come in in the last 5 years?  Just look at the business they added to the Spectrum:

-- Hello Kitty Cafe, going from a pop-up to permanent shop, a first for the brand;
-- H&M clothing store;
-- STANCE, a socks and underwear store;
-- Gorjana, which sells locally designed jewelry;
-- 85 Degrees C Bakery Cafe, which offers gourmet bread, desserts and beverages;
-- BLKdot Coffee;
-- Afters Ice Cream;
-- Concrete Rose, a boutique clothier;
-- Falasophy, a Lebanese restaurant;
-- Robata Wasa, a Japanese food restaurant;
-- SoHa Living, a Hawaii-flavored home and gift store;
-- The Denim Lab jeans store;
-- Ra Yoga, which offers yoga classes and therapy; and
-- UnAffected, a woman's clothing store.

https://patch.com/california/lagunabeach/new-shops-opening-irvine-spectrum-center

The Marketplace used to be full of chain restaurant...now it has morphed to Urban Plates, Class 302, Ramen place, Koja, Wokcano, Snoonze, Hopdaddy.

The Northwood plaza has now two Korean restaurant and a sushi place. 

Culver Plaza has a ton of Asian places now.

I am completely lost at this point...I don't know what I said has anything to do with the viability of businesses in the other parts of the world.   

Again...I ask you..why would keeping Marie Calendar be better for customers?

I am a consumer and I like all of the options that TIC brought in the recent years. Agree with you that TIC want to cater a large demographic population to keep and retain the sale tax revenue instead of going out of Irvine to get stuffs that people crave for.

I use to go out of Irvine to get those options. Now I play, live and eat in Irvine. Prices are not that much difference but the atmosphere in Irvine and services is almost always better.

I know, some might knock on me for being too Irvine and brainwash by TIC cleaniness.  :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 03:29:20 PM

Your theory is completely wrong and unequivocal discrimitory. (It is even shocking that you think it’s correct. I dont even think TIC agrees with you as a matter of fact. You might be infringing on their brand name. For a minute you sounded like you work for TIC.)

We all know that a public company single location is greater than a small trendy business in Irvine regarding revenue. (there might be an outlier)

How is it wrong?  It's not an objective fact that TIC has been moving away from traditional chain restaurants/business to ones that appeal more to younger and/or Asian customers?  I just listed you a bunch of restaurants and shops clearly geared toward those customers. 

Why would it be discriminatory?  If you have an increased Asian population...it makes sense to bring in more Asian businesses/restaurants.  It's business 101...you cater to your customers.

I am confused as to why you are so offended by this patently obvious shift in business models.  It's not just TIC...go to South Coast Plaza...it's not a coincidence that there are signs in Chinese now.   

We are only talking about TIC's strategies in Irvine...I am not sure why anywhere else matters.

Your wrong again. Because TB and DT are traditional business. Let me throw in IN and Out to the equation. (Successesful traditonal business)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 03:31:59 PM

Your theory is completely wrong and unequivocal discrimitory. (It is even shocking that you think it’s correct. I dont even think TIC agrees with you as a matter of fact. You might be infringing on their brand name. For a minute you sounded like you work for TIC.)

We all know that a public company single location is greater than a small trendy business in Irvine regarding revenue. (there might be an outlier)

How is it wrong?  It's not an objective fact that TIC has been moving away from traditional chain restaurants/business to ones that appeal more to younger and/or Asian customers?  I just listed you a bunch of restaurants and shops clearly geared toward those customers. 

Why would it be discriminatory?  If you have an increased Asian population...it makes sense to bring in more Asian businesses/restaurants.  It's business 101...you cater to your customers.

I am confused as to why you are so offended by this patently obvious shift in business models.  It's not just TIC...go to South Coast Plaza...it's not a coincidence that there are signs in Chinese now.   

We are only talking about TIC's strategies in Irvine...I am not sure why anywhere else matters.

Previously at first your answer was Asian demographics then you added young. (Which in fact is another discrimitory word.) I’m sure TIC would use the words you used.

God Bless Merica’
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 08, 2019, 03:32:28 PM
Look, business in the business because they want to make money. There are plenty of money here. And they (Shops, Services, Eaters) all want to be in a hot spot. TO MAKE MONEY. Irvine CO. can pick and choose and they do....believe me.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 03:36:07 PM

Your theory is completely wrong and unequivocal discrimitory. (It is even shocking that you think it’s correct. I dont even think TIC agrees with you as a matter of fact. You might be infringing on their brand name. For a minute you sounded like you work for TIC.)

We all know that a public company single location is greater than a small trendy business in Irvine regarding revenue. (there might be an outlier)

How is it wrong?  It's not an objective fact that TIC has been moving away from traditional chain restaurants/business to ones that appeal more to younger and/or Asian customers?  I just listed you a bunch of restaurants and shops clearly geared toward those customers. 

Why would it be discriminatory?  If you have an increased Asian population...it makes sense to bring in more Asian businesses/restaurants.  It's business 101...you cater to your customers.

I am confused as to why you are so offended by this patently obvious shift in business models.  It's not just TIC...go to South Coast Plaza...it's not a coincidence that there are signs in Chinese now.   

We are only talking about TIC's strategies in Irvine...I am not sure why anywhere else matters.

Previously at first your answer was Asian demographics then you added young. (Which in fact is another discrimitory word.) I’m sure TIC would use the words you used.

God Bless Merica’

You need to go back and read my comment...I specifically stated that the demographics is trending younger and more Asian.  Not sure how exactly that's not American.

I guess companies targeting Males 18-25 is discriminatory too.

Seriously...why are you offended by this?  Do you really miss Marie Calender's that much?  There is still one in Orange.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 03:38:00 PM

Your theory is completely wrong and unequivocal discrimitory. (It is even shocking that you think it’s correct. I dont even think TIC agrees with you as a matter of fact. You might be infringing on their brand name. For a minute you sounded like you work for TIC.)

We all know that a public company single location is greater than a small trendy business in Irvine regarding revenue. (there might be an outlier)

How is it wrong?  It's not an objective fact that TIC has been moving away from traditional chain restaurants/business to ones that appeal more to younger and/or Asian customers?  I just listed you a bunch of restaurants and shops clearly geared toward those customers. 

Why would it be discriminatory?  If you have an increased Asian population...it makes sense to bring in more Asian businesses/restaurants.  It's business 101...you cater to your customers.

I am confused as to why you are so offended by this patently obvious shift in business models.  It's not just TIC...go to South Coast Plaza...it's not a coincidence that there are signs in Chinese now.   

We are only talking about TIC's strategies in Irvine...I am not sure why anywhere else matters.

Your wrong again. Because TB and DT are traditional business. Let me throw in IN and Out to the equation. (Successesful traditonal business)

Did I say that there are no "traditional" businesses?  I said that TIC has made an effort to bringing in more non-traditional and more ethic business...not that they are removing all traditional businesses. 

I have also stated that non-traditional businesses are not always successful.

I am really having a hard time understanding why you choose to ignore the obvious regarding what businesses are being added to TIC properties.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 03:45:16 PM

Your theory is completely wrong and unequivocal discrimitory. (It is even shocking that you think it’s correct. I dont even think TIC agrees with you as a matter of fact. You might be infringing on their brand name. For a minute you sounded like you work for TIC.)

We all know that a public company single location is greater than a small trendy business in Irvine regarding revenue. (there might be an outlier)

How is it wrong?  It's not an objective fact that TIC has been moving away from traditional chain restaurants/business to ones that appeal more to younger and/or Asian customers?  I just listed you a bunch of restaurants and shops clearly geared toward those customers. 

Why would it be discriminatory?  If you have an increased Asian population...it makes sense to bring in more Asian businesses/restaurants.  It's business 101...you cater to your customers.

I am confused as to why you are so offended by this patently obvious shift in business models.  It's not just TIC...go to South Coast Plaza...it's not a coincidence that there are signs in Chinese now.   

We are only talking about TIC's strategies in Irvine...I am not sure why anywhere else matters.

Your wrong again. Because TB and DT are traditional business. Let me throw in IN and Out to the equation. (Successesful traditonal business)

Did I say that there are no "traditional" businesses?  I said that TIC has made an effort to bringing in more non-traditional and more ethic business...not that they are removing all traditional businesses. 

I have also stated that non-traditional businesses are not always successful.

I am really having a hard time understanding why you choose to ignore the obvious regarding what businesses are being added to TIC properties.

1. Your theory is really questionable now
2. This is the first time you have said non-traditonal business are not always successful.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 03:46:36 PM

1. Your theory is really questionable now
2. This is the first time you have said non-traditonal business are not always successful.

Why is my theory "questionable"?  I just listed off a bunch of restaurants and businesses that supports my "theory"

Go back and read my reply to IHO about Veggie Grill.

Again..what exactly are you objecting or upset about? 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 03:47:27 PM

Your theory is completely wrong and unequivocal discrimitory. (It is even shocking that you think it’s correct. I dont even think TIC agrees with you as a matter of fact. You might be infringing on their brand name. For a minute you sounded like you work for TIC.)

We all know that a public company single location is greater than a small trendy business in Irvine regarding revenue. (there might be an outlier)

How is it wrong?  It's not an objective fact that TIC has been moving away from traditional chain restaurants/business to ones that appeal more to younger and/or Asian customers?  I just listed you a bunch of restaurants and shops clearly geared toward those customers. 

Why would it be discriminatory?  If you have an increased Asian population...it makes sense to bring in more Asian businesses/restaurants.  It's business 101...you cater to your customers.

I am confused as to why you are so offended by this patently obvious shift in business models.  It's not just TIC...go to South Coast Plaza...it's not a coincidence that there are signs in Chinese now.   

We are only talking about TIC's strategies in Irvine...I am not sure why anywhere else matters.

Previously at first your answer was Asian demographics then you added young. (Which in fact is another discrimitory word.) I’m sure TIC would use the words you used.

God Bless Merica’

You need to go back and read my comment...I specifically stated that the demographics is trending younger and more Asian.  Not sure how exactly that's not American.

I guess companies targeting Males 18-25 is discriminatory too.

Seriously...why are you offended by this?  Do you really miss Marie Calender's that much?  There is still one in Orange.

I used MC as an example to get you in the ring. Then I used the big boys for the knock out punch.

So if you can argue that the previous new trendy eateries makes more money than in n out. Please let us know.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 03:48:53 PM

I used MC as an example to get you in the ring. Then I used the big boys for the knock out punch.

So if you can argue that the previous new trendy eateries makes more money than in n out. Please let us know.

Why does it need to make more money than In n out?  It just need make more money than that one MC.

This has replaced MC in Culver Plaza...and it's quite popular:  https://www.yelp.com/biz/meizhou-dongpo-irvine

Has the In n out been replaced? 

Is there a way you can stop beating around the bushes and come out and say what you believe is incorrect about my "theory".  Supporting facts would also be nice.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 04:02:17 PM

I used MC as an example to get you in the ring. Then I used the big boys for the knock out punch.

So if you can argue that the previous new trendy eateries makes more money than in n out. Please let us know.

Why does it need to make more money than In n out?  It just need make more money than that one MC.

This has replaced MC in Culver Plaza...and it's quite popular:  https://www.yelp.com/biz/meizhou-dongpo-irvine

Has the In n out been replaced? 

Is there a way you can stop beating around the bushes and come out and say what you believe is incorrect about my "theory".  Supporting facts would also be nice.

I’m not going behind no bush. Go to your eateries list that you previously mentioned one by one. Ask yourself does that make more money than the juggernaut traditonal business?

The fact is your theory is false. Making more money is key. Isn’t there a revenue sharing component as you previously mentioned not me.

Keep in mind I’m not looking at nonfinacial data. I may have looked at a public 10k or 10q which is public. (anybody can look at it if you have a computer and if you don’t have a computer go to the library to go to the net) Then I can guesstimate the revenue.

Companies that are not public I can look up a public company that is similar and assign a higher or lower multiple to take a guess at their revenue.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 04:06:21 PM

I used MC as an example to get you in the ring. Then I used the big boys for the knock out punch.

So if you can argue that the previous new trendy eateries makes more money than in n out. Please let us know.

Why does it need to make more money than In n out?  It just need make more money than that one MC.

This has replaced MC in Culver Plaza...and it's quite popular:  https://www.yelp.com/biz/meizhou-dongpo-irvine

Has the In n out been replaced? 

Is there a way you can stop beating around the bushes and come out and say what you believe is incorrect about my "theory".  Supporting facts would also be nice.

I’m not going behind no bush. Go to the eateries one by one. Ask yourself does that make more money than the juggernaut traditonal business?

The fact is your theory is false. Making more money is key. Isn’t there a revenue sharing component as you previously mentioned not me.

Are we talking about the ones that go replaced?  I would says probably yes...the BLK coffee is probably doing better than the Coffee Bean that was there before, the MZDP is doing better than the MC, Kang Ho Dong is doing better than the Denny's, the Pieology is doing better than what was there before, the Chipotle is doing better than the El Pollo Loco.   Stacks is doing better than the Sushi Boy that was there.  Hopdoddy and Snooze are doing better than what was there before (not sure if there was anything there honestly).  Wokcano doing better than the jewelry store that was there.  The Nektar is doing better than the Juice it Up in Marketplace...Nektar also doing better than the Casey's Cupcake...the Korean restaurants are Northwood are doing better than what was there before.

Actually, I have been told that the MZDP makes 3x more than the MC did.

What is false about my theory?  My theory is that TIC is bringing in restaurants and businesses that appeal to a younger and more Asian demographics because those businesses bring in more money than before.  What is wrong with that?

You still haven't answered my question as to why MC should be there if it is not doing very well.

I will also ask this in a different way...what exactly do you think my "theory" is?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 04:10:17 PM

Keep in mind I’m not looking at nonfinacial data. I may have looked at a public 10k or 10q which is public. (anybody can look at it if you have a computer and if you don’t have a computer go to the library to go to the net) Then I can guesstimate the revenue.

Companies that are not public I can look up a public company that is similar and assign a higher or lower multiple to take a guess at their revenue.

Why does that matter for purposes of Irvine or specific locations?  A successful company can have poor performing locations...it's neither reflection of the company or that location. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 04:16:16 PM

I used MC as an example to get you in the ring. Then I used the big boys for the knock out punch.

So if you can argue that the previous new trendy eateries makes more money than in n out. Please let us know.

Why does it need to make more money than In n out?  It just need make more money than that one MC.

This has replaced MC in Culver Plaza...and it's quite popular:  https://www.yelp.com/biz/meizhou-dongpo-irvine

Has the In n out been replaced? 

Is there a way you can stop beating around the bushes and come out and say what you believe is incorrect about my "theory".  Supporting facts would also be nice.

I’m not going behind no bush. Go to the eateries one by one. Ask yourself does that make more money than the juggernaut traditonal business?

The fact is your theory is false. Making more money is key. Isn’t there a revenue sharing component as you previously mentioned not me.

Are we talking about the ones that go replaced?  I would says probably yes...the BLK coffee is probably doing better than the Coffee Bean that was there before, the MZDP is doing better than the MC, Kang Ho Dong is doing better than the Denny's, the Pieology is doing better than what was there before, the Chipotle is doing better than the El Pollo Loco.   

Actually, I have been told that the MZDP makes 3x more than the MC did.

What is false about my theory?  My theory is that TIC is bringing in restaurants and businesses that appeal to a younger and more Asian demographics because those businesses bring in more money than before.  What is wrong with that?

You still haven't answered my question as to why MC should be there if it is not doing very well.

I already told you. I used MC as an example of a traditonal company. Also, I like their pie. It was a starter to get you argue against traditonal companies (which you did I might add). Once I started to bring the top guns on the conversation you backed down. “It’s not about revenue.”
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 04:19:17 PM

I already told you. I used MC as an example of a traditonal company. Also, I like their pie. It was a starter to get you argue against traditonal companies (which you did I might add). Once I started to bring the top guns on the conversation you backed down. “It’s not about revenue.”

What?  What makes you think I was arguing against "traditional companies"? 

Why would you talk about In n out when we are talking about Marie Calender's?   You are the one who said that it was a shame that TIC replaced MC because it is bad for relationships and the customers.  I continue to not understand that point.  Are you saying that TIC should absorb the losses at one location to have a good relationship with MC's parent company?  Pretty sure that MC's parent company is not angry at TIC or anything.

I have always said it's about the revenues...MC was not make very much revenue and thus TIC brought something that appeals more to the newer demographics of Irvine and now it makes more money. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 04:22:02 PM

Keep in mind I’m not looking at nonfinacial data. I may have looked at a public 10k or 10q which is public. (anybody can look at it if you have a computer and if you don’t have a computer go to the library to go to the net) Then I can guesstimate the revenue.

Companies that are not public I can look up a public company that is similar and assign a higher or lower multiple to take a guess at their revenue.

Why does that matter for purposes of Irvine or specific locations?  A successful company can have poor performing locations...it's neither reflection of the company or that location.

Lets analyze your statement. Do you honestly think the trendy small burger place makes more money than a franchise owner of the top burger place?  (No names were mentioned but I think you know what I mean)

Let replace the word top and use not the top but like top 5 or top 10 burger franchise single location.

(Which are traditonal business I might add.)

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 04:24:12 PM

Keep in mind I’m not looking at nonfinacial data. I may have looked at a public 10k or 10q which is public. (anybody can look at it if you have a computer and if you don’t have a computer go to the library to go to the net) Then I can guesstimate the revenue.

Companies that are not public I can look up a public company that is similar and assign a higher or lower multiple to take a guess at their revenue.

Why does that matter for purposes of Irvine or specific locations?  A successful company can have poor performing locations...it's neither reflection of the company or that location.

Lets analyze your statement. Do you honestly think the trendy small burger place makes more money than a franchise owner of the top burger place?

It depends on the location and the business...there are plenty of chain stores with locations that lose money while local eateries are making more money because they cater to their local area better.

Like I said...I have been told that the MZDP makes 3x the revenue of the MC it replaced...so for that particular location, yes.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 04:26:56 PM
I’m going to end this conversation. Because I feel like your wasting my time.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 04:29:00 PM
I’m going to end this conversation. Because I feel like your wasting my time.

Okay...considering you have not actually made any points and somehow accused me of being discriminatory.  Sounds good.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 04:31:01 PM
I’m going to end this conversation. Because I feel like your wasting my time.

Okay...considering you have not actually made any points and somehow accused me of being discriminatory.  Sounds good.

I already did. Your accusing TIC of only getting Asian business. Yawns
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 04:33:12 PM
I’m going to end this conversation. Because I feel like your wasting my time.

Okay...considering you have not actually made any points and somehow accused me of being discriminatory.  Sounds good.

I already did. Your accusing TIC of only getting Asian business. Yawns

When did I say that?  I wasn't aware that Snooze, Hopdoddy, Stacks, or Nektar were Asian businesses.

A few pages back:

Quote
It's not just Asian...it's also geared toward younger generation who want lighter and fresh foods as well as fusion type foods.  TIC has brought in places like Urban Plates, Snooze, Counter, Hopdaddy, Wokcano, etc.  as well as Chinese restaurants, Korean BBQ, and others.   

But ultimately...I don't get your point, shouldn't TIC be trying to bring in business that appeal to the demographics of the area?

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 04:35:46 PM
I’m going to end this conversation. Because I feel like your wasting my time.

Okay...considering you have not actually made any points and somehow accused me of being discriminatory.  Sounds good.

I already did. Your accusing TIC of only getting Asian business. Yawns

When did I say that?  I wasn't aware that Snooze, Hopdoddy, Stacks, or Nektar were Asian businesses.

This is turning into a circular discussion. You used the term they are catering to the new demographics (Asian and young)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 04:36:57 PM
I’m going to end this conversation. Because I feel like your wasting my time.

Okay...considering you have not actually made any points and somehow accused me of being discriminatory.  Sounds good.

I already did. Your accusing TIC of only getting Asian business. Yawns

When did I say that?  I wasn't aware that Snooze, Hopdoddy, Stacks, or Nektar were Asian businesses.

This is turning into a circular discussion. You used the term they are catering to the new demographics (Asian and young)

And that's discriminatory?  They shouldn't cater to newer demographics...they should stick with MC and Denny's?

I am curious...why do you think TIC is bringing in all these new restaurants and business rather than keeping the existing tenants.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 04:43:32 PM
I’m going to end this conversation. Because I feel like your wasting my time.

Okay...considering you have not actually made any points and somehow accused me of being discriminatory.  Sounds good.

I already did. Your accusing TIC of only getting Asian business. Yawns

When did I say that?  I wasn't aware that Snooze, Hopdoddy, Stacks, or Nektar were Asian businesses.

This is turning into a circular discussion. You used the term they are catering to the new demographics (Asian and young)

And that's discriminatory?  They shouldn't cater to newer demographics...they should stick with MC and Denny's?

If you used the term non traditional/new type of eateries sounds a lot better.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 04:46:07 PM

If you used the term non traditional/new type of eateries sounds a lot better.

Why does it matter whether it sounds better or worse?  They are bringing in new businesses to cater to a changing demographic...that changing demographic is younger and more Asian. 

What exactly is offensive or problematic about that statement? 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 04:50:42 PM

If you used the term non traditional/new type of eateries sounds a lot better.

Why does it matter whether it sounds better or worse?  They are bringing in new businesses to cater to a changing demographic...that changing demographic is younger and more Asian. 

What exactly is offensive or problematic about that statement?

You previously mentioned that the new business are not all Asian. So I think it’s a misleading statement.

I’m looking at this a neutral person. If I was looking to move into Irvine area or near by. I would be omg this is turning into SGv (San Gabriel Valley) eateries. In fact it is not.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 05:01:09 PM

If you used the term non traditional/new type of eateries sounds a lot better.

Why does it matter whether it sounds better or worse?  They are bringing in new businesses to cater to a changing demographic...that changing demographic is younger and more Asian. 

What exactly is offensive or problematic about that statement?

You previously mentioned that the new business are not all Asian. So I think it’s a misleading statement.

I’m looking at this a neutral person. If I was looking to move into Irvine area or near by. I would be omg this is turning into SGv (San Gabriel Valley) eateries. In fact it is not.

I am pretty confused because you seem to indicate that Irvine turning into SGV is a bad thing. 

I mean I think anyone who moves into the area and notice the demographics will see that Irvine is 41 to 45 % Asian....the Asian population in the SGV is at around 49%.  Orange County has about a 20% overall Asian population...Westminister has a 43% Asian population...Garden Grove is at 37%

Irvine also has a median age of 34.4 as compared to 36.9 for the LA/Anaheim/LGB area and 37.9 for Orange County. 

So Irvine is younger and significant more Asian than its surrounding area....so it shouldn't shock anyone that the businesses reflect that demographics.

I feel like you are not quite grasping the demographics of Irvine and the significant presences Asians have on the city.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 08, 2019, 05:10:23 PM

If you used the term non traditional/new type of eateries sounds a lot better.

Why does it matter whether it sounds better or worse?  They are bringing in new businesses to cater to a changing demographic...that changing demographic is younger and more Asian. 

What exactly is offensive or problematic about that statement?

You previously mentioned that the new business are not all Asian. So I think it’s a misleading statement.

I’m looking at this a neutral person. If I was looking to move into Irvine area or near by. I would be omg this is turning into SGv (San Gabriel Valley) eateries. In fact it is not.

I am pretty confused because you seem to indicate that Irvine turning into SGV is a bad thing. 

I mean I think anyone who moves into the area and notice the demographics will see that Irvine is 47% Asian....the Asian population in the SGV is at around 49%.  Orange County has about a 20% overall Asian population...Westminister has a 43% Asian population...Garden Grove is at 37%

Irvine also has a median age of 34.4 as compared to 36.9 for the LA/Anaheim/LGB area and 37.9 for Orange County. 

So Irvine is younger and significant more Asian than its surrounding area....so it shouldn't shock anyone that the businesses reflect that demographics.

Yeah I can tell you are confused. Don’t waste my time. Choose better words.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 08, 2019, 05:12:01 PM

Yeah I can tell you are confused. Don’t waste my time. Choose better words.

Confused?  Numbers don't lie. 

Quote
More than 45 percent of Irvine’s roughly 257,000 residents are Asian, according to American Community Survey estimates released Thursday.

Quote
Irvine has grown steadily since its 1971 incorporation. Its share of Asian residents has climbed more quickly. They accounted for roughly 8 percent of the population in 1980. That number jumped to 18 percent in 1990 and 30 percent in 2000, according to census data.

Just in the decade ending last year, the city added 84,745 people of all races. The share of white residents, which can include people of Middle Eastern and North African origin, fell from 56 percent to just below the Asian population.

Latinos, who can be of any race, were about 7 percent of the population in the latest census report.

Irvine’s Asian population hovered between 35 percent and 40 percent for much of the past decade, before surging last year, according to census estimates.


https://www.ocregister.com/2016/09/21/why-asians-have-become-the-dominant-group-in-irvine-and-what-that-means-for-the-city/

Weird that somehow Irvine becoming SGV is a negative.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on May 08, 2019, 06:04:58 PM
It makes sense to me that TIC should adjust to the big demographic changes in Irvine.

Orchard Hills is 68% Asian, North Wood Point is 64% Asian, Woodbury is 58% Asain.

https://statisticalatlas.com/place/California/Irvine/Race-and-Ethnicity

Edit : wrong link and modified # to take out Hispanics.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kings on May 08, 2019, 06:39:26 PM
am i in the snowflake thread?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: WTTCHMN on May 08, 2019, 09:18:11 PM
When did I say that?  I wasn't aware that Snooze, Hopdoddy, Stacks, or Nektar were Asian businesses.

Stacks is actually Asian-owned (Filipino).
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2019, 09:29:47 PM
From housing bottom to restaurant wars. :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: misme on May 08, 2019, 10:18:19 PM

Yeah I can tell you are confused. Don’t waste my time. Choose better words.

Confused?  Numbers don't lie. 

Quote
More than 45 percent of Irvine’s roughly 257,000 residents are Asian, according to American Community Survey estimates released Thursday.

Quote
Irvine has grown steadily since its 1971 incorporation. Its share of Asian residents has climbed more quickly. They accounted for roughly 8 percent of the population in 1980. That number jumped to 18 percent in 1990 and 30 percent in 2000, according to census data.

Just in the decade ending last year, the city added 84,745 people of all races. The share of white residents, which can include people of Middle Eastern and North African origin, fell from 56 percent to just below the Asian population.

Latinos, who can be of any race, were about 7 percent of the population in the latest census report.

Irvine’s Asian population hovered between 35 percent and 40 percent for much of the past decade, before surging last year, according to census estimates.


https://www.ocregister.com/2016/09/21/why-asians-have-become-the-dominant-group-in-irvine-and-what-that-means-for-the-city/

Weird that somehow Irvine becoming SGV is a negative.

Hey, I’m in the target demographic (Asian and young)
Guess what, we like to eat all kinds of food, including non Asian food too! I would find it sad if I had to drive out of Irvine to get “traditional” American food or other kinds of ethnic foods. If that day comes, and Irvine is really like the next SGV, I’m going to have to move. 

Trust me, I used to live in Flushing NY. The food situation was super annoying if I wanted anything other than Chinese food. Impossible to even get a good slice of pizza after the last one closed due to lack  of business.

 I personally don’t think Irvine will become like that because there’s not enough concentration of one ethnicity here ( even among asians, its a mix of many different nationalities, so businesses have to use English as a common language) I would be upset to see lots of non English business signage in Irvine. I doubt TIC would let that happen though. Also, Irvine has a large corporate business presence that will help keep it mainstream ( rather than become a real ethnic ghetto, er, enclave)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 08, 2019, 10:44:31 PM

Yeah I can tell you are confused. Don’t waste my time. Choose better words.

Confused?  Numbers don't lie. 

Quote
More than 45 percent of Irvine’s roughly 257,000 residents are Asian, according to American Community Survey estimates released Thursday.

Quote
Irvine has grown steadily since its 1971 incorporation. Its share of Asian residents has climbed more quickly. They accounted for roughly 8 percent of the population in 1980. That number jumped to 18 percent in 1990 and 30 percent in 2000, according to census data.

Just in the decade ending last year, the city added 84,745 people of all races. The share of white residents, which can include people of Middle Eastern and North African origin, fell from 56 percent to just below the Asian population.

Latinos, who can be of any race, were about 7 percent of the population in the latest census report.

Irvine’s Asian population hovered between 35 percent and 40 percent for much of the past decade, before surging last year, according to census estimates.


https://www.ocregister.com/2016/09/21/why-asians-have-become-the-dominant-group-in-irvine-and-what-that-means-for-the-city/

Weird that somehow Irvine becoming SGV is a negative.

Hey, I’m in the target demographic (Asian and young)
Guess what, we like to eat all kinds of food, including non Asian food too! I would find it sad if I had to drive out of Irvine to get “traditional” American food or other kinds of ethnic foods. If that day comes, and Irvine is really like the next SGV, I’m going to have to move. 

Trust me, I used to live in Flushing NY. The food situation was super annoying if I wanted anything other than Chinese food. Impossible to even get a good slice of pizza after the last one closed due to lack  of business.

 I personally don’t think Irvine will become like that because there’s not enough concentration of one ethnicity here ( even among asians, its a mix of many different nationalities, so businesses have to use English as a common language) I would be upset to see lots of non English business signage in Irvine. I doubt TIC would let that happen though. Also, Irvine has a large corporate business presence that will help keep it mainstream ( rather than become a real ethnic ghetto, er, enclave)

You hit it dead on. There is a well balance mixed with healthy food options of virtually all ethnic groups here in Irvine. There is little need to leave the bubble, sorta speaks.
Irvine will NEVER be SGV / Monterey Park.

Although, I have not found any Filipino restaurants around here.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: aquabliss on May 08, 2019, 11:40:07 PM
https://www.yelp.com/biz/pinoy-pams-best-lake-forest

Not that great tho.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: WTTCHMN on May 08, 2019, 11:45:17 PM
https://www.yelp.com/biz/pinoy-pams-best-lake-forest

Not that great tho.

Don’t forget IHO’s favorite, Jollibee.  Grill City too.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 07:13:07 AM

Yeah I can tell you are confused. Don’t waste my time. Choose better words.

Confused?  Numbers don't lie. 

Quote
More than 45 percent of Irvine’s roughly 257,000 residents are Asian, according to American Community Survey estimates released Thursday.

Quote
Irvine has grown steadily since its 1971 incorporation. Its share of Asian residents has climbed more quickly. They accounted for roughly 8 percent of the population in 1980. That number jumped to 18 percent in 1990 and 30 percent in 2000, according to census data.

Just in the decade ending last year, the city added 84,745 people of all races. The share of white residents, which can include people of Middle Eastern and North African origin, fell from 56 percent to just below the Asian population.

Latinos, who can be of any race, were about 7 percent of the population in the latest census report.

Irvine’s Asian population hovered between 35 percent and 40 percent for much of the past decade, before surging last year, according to census estimates.


https://www.ocregister.com/2016/09/21/why-asians-have-become-the-dominant-group-in-irvine-and-what-that-means-for-the-city/

Weird that somehow Irvine becoming SGV is a negative.

Hey, I’m in the target demographic (Asian and young)
Guess what, we like to eat all kinds of food, including non Asian food too! I would find it sad if I had to drive out of Irvine to get “traditional” American food or other kinds of ethnic foods. If that day comes, and Irvine is really like the next SGV, I’m going to have to move. 

Trust me, I used to live in Flushing NY. The food situation was super annoying if I wanted anything other than Chinese food. Impossible to even get a good slice of pizza after the last one closed due to lack  of business.

 I personally don’t think Irvine will become like that because there’s not enough concentration of one ethnicity here ( even among asians, its a mix of many different nationalities, so businesses have to use English as a common language) I would be upset to see lots of non English business signage in Irvine. I doubt TIC would let that happen though. Also, Irvine has a large corporate business presence that will help keep it mainstream ( rather than become a real ethnic ghetto, er, enclave)

 ;)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 09, 2019, 07:42:36 AM
https://www.yelp.com/biz/pinoy-pams-best-lake-forest

Not that great tho.

Don’t forget IHO’s favorite, Jollibee.  Grill City too.

Those are okay. You have to go to Cerritos/Artesia for a real restaurant.

There is a place called Irena(?) in Santa Ana but I've never been.

I think Vietnamese and Korean food is better. Maybe I'll open a food cart/storage container in the Great Park that serves a mix of all Asian foods... and throw in some Austrian food for a twist. :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 09, 2019, 08:00:00 AM
Are we talking about the ones that go replaced?  I would says probably yes...the BLK coffee is probably doing better than the Coffee Bean that was there before, the MZDP is doing better than the MC, Kang Ho Dong is doing better than the Denny's, the Pieology is doing better than what was there before, the Chipotle is doing better than the El Pollo Loco.   Stacks is doing better than the Sushi Boy that was there.  Hopdoddy and Snooze are doing better than what was there before (not sure if there was anything there honestly).  Wokcano doing better than the jewelry store that was there.  The Nektar is doing better than the Juice it Up in Marketplace...Nektar also doing better than the Casey's Cupcake...the Korean restaurants are Northwood are doing better than what was there before.

BLK and Coffee Bean are a push.

MZDP is doing better than MC but MC was the go-to place during Thanksgiving and holidays (for take-out dinners especially).

KHD > Denny's... agreed but that's not a TIC center.

Where Pieology and Veggie Grill (I'm assuming you're referring to the Marketplace) it used to be Pat & Oscars (formerly just Oscars) which did quite well but closed up during the recession (the remaining franchises became O's American Kitchen and are mostly in the San Diego area). Stonefire Grill which serves basically the same food, does quite well (just opened another location in South County). I'm going to say that's a push too.

Not sure if Chipotle is doing better than El Pollo Loco, also a push.

Stacks does do well, but I think Sushi Boy moved over to Sand Canyon so they are still around.

Hopdaddy and Snooze I believe took over the Black Angus location, I don't know how well that fish place is doing though.

I don't think Wokcano is very good at all. I think they might close like the Asian fusion place in the Irvine Spectrum where the Improv used to be.

I'm not too sure about Nektar, I think they are struggling a bit, they used to be pretty crowded but I think they are going through the same issues that Juice It Up/Jamba Juice had... and they are way overpriced.

Northwood Town Center is also not a TIC center which is why smaller businesses were able to go there (I've dealt with their leasing agents too and are much more flexible than TIC's).

I just think it's the natural cycle of retail, especially restaurants. In high rent places, which is basically all of TIC's centers, only the financially strong businesses will last, chain or no chain. How is the Orchard Hills shopping center doing? Still vacancies? I think overall B&M retail is tough, which is why no one is in a hurry to build strip malls near the Great Park.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: WTTCHMN on May 09, 2019, 08:10:44 AM
Stacks does do well, but I think Sushi Boy moved over to Sand Canyon so they are still around.

Sushi Boy never moved.  The Sand Canyon location was open at the same time as Culver, but it too has now closed.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 08:45:21 AM
Good luck beating Starbucks
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 08:51:22 AM
Hey, I’m in the target demographic (Asian and young)
Guess what, we like to eat all kinds of food, including non Asian food too! I would find it sad if I had to drive out of Irvine to get “traditional” American food or other kinds of ethnic foods. If that day comes, and Irvine is really like the next SGV, I’m going to have to move. 

Trust me, I used to live in Flushing NY. The food situation was super annoying if I wanted anything other than Chinese food. Impossible to even get a good slice of pizza after the last one closed due to lack  of business.

 I personally don’t think Irvine will become like that because there’s not enough concentration of one ethnicity here ( even among asians, its a mix of many different nationalities, so businesses have to use English as a common language) I would be upset to see lots of non English business signage in Irvine. I doubt TIC would let that happen though. Also, Irvine has a large corporate business presence that will help keep it mainstream ( rather than become a real ethnic ghetto, er, enclave)

I agree that Irvine will never be SGV in style but I don't think there is anything particular "wrong" with Irvine being Arcadia.  Again...I never said that TIC was adding only Asian business...I said that they shift in their focus in targeting businesses geared toward younger and more Asian demographics.   I would say that the mix is 50/50. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on May 09, 2019, 09:01:07 AM
Quote
Hopdaddy and Snooze I believe took over the Black Angus location, I don't know how well that fish place is doing though.


Bonerfish closed like 5 months ago.  I went there once last year, and had drinks at the bar....For the price I'd rather be at Mesa.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 09:12:45 AM
Are we talking about the ones that go replaced?  I would says probably yes...the BLK coffee is probably doing better than the Coffee Bean that was there before, the MZDP is doing better than the MC, Kang Ho Dong is doing better than the Denny's, the Pieology is doing better than what was there before, the Chipotle is doing better than the El Pollo Loco.   Stacks is doing better than the Sushi Boy that was there.  Hopdoddy and Snooze are doing better than what was there before (not sure if there was anything there honestly).  Wokcano doing better than the jewelry store that was there.  The Nektar is doing better than the Juice it Up in Marketplace...Nektar also doing better than the Casey's Cupcake...the Korean restaurants are Northwood are doing better than what was there before.

BLK and Coffee Bean are a push.

MZDP is doing better than MC but MC was the go-to place during Thanksgiving and holidays (for take-out dinners especially).

KHD > Denny's... agreed but that's not a TIC center.

Where Pieology and Veggie Grill (I'm assuming you're referring to the Marketplace) it used to be Pat & Oscars (formerly just Oscars) which did quite well but closed up during the recession (the remaining franchises became O's American Kitchen and are mostly in the San Diego area). Stonefire Grill which serves basically the same food, does quite well (just opened another location in South County). I'm going to say that's a push too.

Not sure if Chipotle is doing better than El Pollo Loco, also a push.

Stacks does do well, but I think Sushi Boy moved over to Sand Canyon so they are still around.

Hopdaddy and Snooze I believe took over the Black Angus location, I don't know how well that fish place is doing though.

I don't think Wokcano is very good at all. I think they might close like the Asian fusion place in the Irvine Spectrum where the Improv used to be.

I'm not too sure about Nektar, I think they are struggling a bit, they used to be pretty crowded but I think they are going through the same issues that Juice It Up/Jamba Juice had... and they are way overpriced.

Northwood Town Center is also not a TIC center which is why smaller businesses were able to go there (I've dealt with their leasing agents too and are much more flexible than TIC's).

I just think it's the natural cycle of retail, especially restaurants. In high rent places, which is basically all of TIC's centers, only the financially strong businesses will last, chain or no chain. How is the Orchard Hills shopping center doing? Still vacancies? I think overall B&M retail is tough, which is why no one is in a hurry to build strip malls near the Great Park.

Actually I was referring to Northpark Plaza:  https://www.shopirvinecompany.com/centers/irvine/northpark-plaza

New additions:  Kbop, Chai Lan, Boba Time, Spice Palace, Kiyo. 

Just going through some of the TIC centers, recent additions:

Alton Square:  MOOYAH, Olives Branch, Pizza 90, Omomo...Hui Lau Shan coming

Crossroad:  Capital Noodles, CAVA, Ha Long, Inchin, Paris Baguette, Southern Spice, Tastee, Urban Plates

Campus Plaza:  Asian Box, Ding Garden, Taquiero Taco Patio, Saffron & Rose Ice Cream and Buffalo Spot coming.

Culver Plaza:  MZDP, All that BBQ, Coffee Tomo, iSno, Pokeworks, Little Sheep

Cypress Village:  Honey Pig, Red Straw, Tang 190, Olive Oil Mediterrean, Cauldron

Marketplace:  Snooze, Urban Plates, Wokcano, Mizu, Koja, Hopdoddy, BLK, Pieology, Cha Cha, Class 302, h20 Poke, J San Ramen, Lazy Dog, Luna Grill, Miguel's, Nektar, Piadina, Sawleaf, Spiritea, Taco Rosa, Taps, Texas de Brazil, Veggie Grill, Ja Jaozi

Woodbury added Shen Shen Gumi, Fish District, Nektar

Westpark added MOD Pizza, Luna, and the Cut

Woodbridge added Cha for Tea, Sessions, Clean Juice, and Press Pizza

(too lazy to do them all)

These all came in the last 3 to 4 years...TIC has made it a point to add non-traditional restaurants that are geared toward younger and/or Asians palates.  It's pretty obvious what they are doing.  It makes total sense. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 09, 2019, 09:14:50 AM
Years ago I used to work in Pasadena commuting from Irvine, (insane drive) traffics on the 210 is just horrible even with carpools, it was so bad that I resort to surface street at least your car still move. So Waze put me on all these surface streets sometimes as early as at the interchange if 57 and 210 to reach old town Pasadena via surface street.

From there you zig zag your ways through all these different cities and there are pocket area of surrounding cities to Acadia is ok, and for the most part it’s pretty old and run down. Acadia suppose to be pricey but still if you in the area of foods, services and businesses, it’s can be pretty bad. Pasadena homes are huge and spread out. Old and require a lot of up keep and maintenance. It is not clean and green like Irvine. There are tons of businesses and eatery here, the run down place constantly get revitalize by TIC if they owned it. Many times I see tear up and ripped down and renovate when it’s perfectly in good shape. So TIC, yes rent is high because they do maintain and up keep that world class image.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 09:17:50 AM
Hey, I’m in the target demographic (Asian and young)
Guess what, we like to eat all kinds of food, including non Asian food too! I would find it sad if I had to drive out of Irvine to get “traditional” American food or other kinds of ethnic foods. If that day comes, and Irvine is really like the next SGV, I’m going to have to move. 

Trust me, I used to live in Flushing NY. The food situation was super annoying if I wanted anything other than Chinese food. Impossible to even get a good slice of pizza after the last one closed due to lack  of business.

 I personally don’t think Irvine will become like that because there’s not enough concentration of one ethnicity here ( even among asians, its a mix of many different nationalities, so businesses have to use English as a common language) I would be upset to see lots of non English business signage in Irvine. I doubt TIC would let that happen though. Also, Irvine has a large corporate business presence that will help keep it mainstream ( rather than become a real ethnic ghetto, er, enclave)

I agree that Irvine will never be SGV in style but I don't think there is anything particular "wrong" with Irvine being Arcadia.  Again...I never said that TIC was adding only Asian business...I said that they shift in their focus in targeting businesses geared toward younger and more Asian demographics.   I would say that the mix is 50/50.

Now your changing your story.
If I worked at TIC. (which I don’t) I would be wtf is this guy saying.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 09:20:19 AM
At least when Belly was promoting TIC new properties on TI.

The photoshop photos with looked classy and professional maybe even better than TIC. You on the other hand I can’t say the same.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 09:20:27 AM
Years ago I used to work in Pasadena commuting from Irvine, (insane drive) traffics on the 210 is just horrible even with carpools, it was so bad that I resort to surface street at least your car still move. So Waze put me on all these surface streets sometimes as early as at the interchange if 57 and 210 to reach old town Pasadena via surface street.

From there you zig zag your ways through all these different cities and there are pocket area of surrounding cities to Acadia is ok, and for the most part it’s pretty old and run down. Acadia suppose to be pricey but still if you in the area of foods, services and businesses, it’s can be pretty bad. Pasadena homes are huge and spread out. Old and require a lot of up keep and maintenance. It is not clean and green like Irvine. There are tons of businesses and eatery here, the run down place constantly get revitalize by TIC if they owned it. Many times I see tear up and ripped down and renovate when it’s perfectly in good shape. So TIC, yes rent is high because they do maintain and up keep that world class image.

Absolutely...we are talking about maintenance and upkeep.  None of the cities in SGV are master planned like TIC and TIC takes pride on making everything look nice and clean.  It's the Disneyland of master planning companies.

I am very glad that they finally caught on and started shifting their strategy...we lived in Irvine since 2005 and used to went to SGV, LA, Fullerton, GG, or Cerritos to eat.   Now, we are living in the center of where people want to come.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 09:22:20 AM
Hey, I’m in the target demographic (Asian and young)
Guess what, we like to eat all kinds of food, including non Asian food too! I would find it sad if I had to drive out of Irvine to get “traditional” American food or other kinds of ethnic foods. If that day comes, and Irvine is really like the next SGV, I’m going to have to move. 

Trust me, I used to live in Flushing NY. The food situation was super annoying if I wanted anything other than Chinese food. Impossible to even get a good slice of pizza after the last one closed due to lack  of business.

 I personally don’t think Irvine will become like that because there’s not enough concentration of one ethnicity here ( even among asians, its a mix of many different nationalities, so businesses have to use English as a common language) I would be upset to see lots of non English business signage in Irvine. I doubt TIC would let that happen though. Also, Irvine has a large corporate business presence that will help keep it mainstream ( rather than become a real ethnic ghetto, er, enclave)

I agree that Irvine will never be SGV in style but I don't think there is anything particular "wrong" with Irvine being Arcadia.  Again...I never said that TIC was adding only Asian business...I said that they shift in their focus in targeting businesses geared toward younger and more Asian demographics.   I would say that the mix is 50/50.

Now your changing your story.
If I worked at TIC. (which I don’t) I would be wtf is this guy saying.

Changing what story...what story did you think I was painting?  Go back an read my comments..not think what you thought I posted.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 09:23:30 AM
Stacks does do well, but I think Sushi Boy moved over to Sand Canyon so they are still around.

Sushi Boy never moved.  The Sand Canyon location was open at the same time as Culver, but it too has now closed.

Another victim of the changing demographics...people rather pay more to get better stuff.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 09:25:57 AM
Hey, I’m in the target demographic (Asian and young)
Guess what, we like to eat all kinds of food, including non Asian food too! I would find it sad if I had to drive out of Irvine to get “traditional” American food or other kinds of ethnic foods. If that day comes, and Irvine is really like the next SGV, I’m going to have to move. 

Trust me, I used to live in Flushing NY. The food situation was super annoying if I wanted anything other than Chinese food. Impossible to even get a good slice of pizza after the last one closed due to lack  of business.

 I personally don’t think Irvine will become like that because there’s not enough concentration of one ethnicity here ( even among asians, its a mix of many different nationalities, so businesses have to use English as a common language) I would be upset to see lots of non English business signage in Irvine. I doubt TIC would let that happen though. Also, Irvine has a large corporate business presence that will help keep it mainstream ( rather than become a real ethnic ghetto, er, enclave)

I agree that Irvine will never be SGV in style but I don't think there is anything particular "wrong" with Irvine being Arcadia.  Again...I never said that TIC was adding only Asian business...I said that they shift in their focus in targeting businesses geared toward younger and more Asian demographics.   I would say that the mix is 50/50.

Now your changing your story.
If I worked at TIC. (which I don’t) I would be wtf is this guy saying.

Changing what story...what story did you think I was painting?  Go back an read my comments..not think what you thought I posted.

I did. To be honest this is a joke like your solar panel comment.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 09:27:26 AM
Through your posts alone are hurting the TIC brand. You think you know what they are doing. But let’s be honest you are guessing and you are protraying to the public like you know.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 09:28:20 AM
IHO mentioned Orchard Hills...that is a such a mismanaged center.

That place should have significantly more Asian restaurants as well...I think people talked about a Korean or Ranch 99 market would have worked great there...instead they reopen the Pavilions and added a bunch of random restaurants/shops.  I still have no idea how Zov's stays afloat there. 

La Sirena, Peets, and Jinbei are doing decently.  The Chinese restaurant is hit and miss and we go to that McD quite a lot. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 09:29:00 AM
Through your posts alone are hurting the TIC brand. You think you know what they are doing. But let’s be honest you are guessing and you are protraying to the public like you know.

What?  Who is saying that "I know"...it's pretty obvious what they are doing. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 09:29:44 AM

I did. To be honest this is a joke like your solar panel comment.

LOL...I guess you are really distraught over the loss of the MC.  I grieve with you.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 09:33:13 AM

I did. To be honest this is a joke like your solar panel comment.

LOL...I guess you are really distraught over the loss of the MC.  I grieve with you.

Sorry I baited you in to go against tradiatonal business and you fell for it. When I brought up the top brands you took a step back. Then you changed your story from Catering to Asian to 50-50.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 09:37:01 AM

I did. To be honest this is a joke like your solar panel comment.

Sorry I baited you in to go against tradiatonal business /‘s you fell for it. When I brought up the top brands you took a step back. Then you changed your story from Catering to Asian to 50-50.

LOL...I guess you are really distraught over the loss of the MC.  I grieve with you.

When did I go against "traditional" business...I feel like you are fighting a strawman and feeling happy about it.

Again...my first comment on the subject:

Quote
Of course it's my opinion and I love Marie Calendar pies too but money talks.  If Marie Calendar still attracts business, it would still be there.  Clearly it does not, I mean Marie Calendar did declare BK in 2011 and close a bunch of stores. 

New population...younger and Asian.  It's demographics. 

Next comment: 

Quote
But it's not just about money...it about bringing in businesses that people want to go to.  Why have a bunch of stores/restaurant around for "nostalgia" purposes?  I love Marie Calendar pie but have never stepped into that particular MC.  Nor have I gone to Chili's, Outback, or Denny's.

Why would keeping MC around be good for customers?

Your comment:

Quote
They don’t just base it just on demographics. Using your theory there would only be Asian related business. Clearly that’s not true.

These are examples for fun and discussion purposes only.

Burrito place say bye. Noodle place coming. Sandwich shop say bye to be replaced by rice bowl shop.

(Btw This hasn’t happened)

My response:

Quote
It's not just Asian...it's also geared toward younger generation who want lighter and fresh foods as well as fusion type foods.  TIC has brought in places like Urban Plates, Snooze, Counter, Hopdaddy, Wokcano, etc.  as well as Chinese restaurants, Korean BBQ, and others.   

But ultimately...I don't get your point, shouldn't TIC be trying to bring in business that appeal to the demographics of the area?

Again...go read my actual comments...not what you think I said.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 09:39:16 AM
We all know you are hurting TIC brand. Keep it up. I’m sure they are enjoying reading your comments.


I did. To be honest this is a joke like your solar panel comment.

Sorry I baited you in to go against tradiatonal business /‘s you fell for it. When I brought up the top brands you took a step back. Then you changed your story from Catering to Asian to 50-50.

LOL...I guess you are really distraught over the loss of the MC.  I grieve with you.

When did I go against "traditional" business...I feel like you are fighting a strawman and feeling happy about it.

Again...my first comment on the subject:

Quote
Of course it's my opinion and I love Marie Calendar pies too but money talks.  If Marie Calendar still attracts business, it would still be there.  Clearly it does not, I mean Marie Calendar did declare BK in 2011 and close a bunch of stores. 

New population...younger and Asian.  It's demographics. 

Next comment: 

Quote
But it's not just about money...it about bringing in businesses that people want to go to.  Why have a bunch of stores/restaurant around for "nostalgia" purposes?  I love Marie Calendar pie but have never stepped into that particular MC.  Nor have I gone to Chili's, Outback, or Denny's.

Why would keeping MC around be good for customers?

Your comment:

Quote
They don’t just base it just on demographics. Using your theory there would only be Asian related business. Clearly that’s not true.

These are examples for fun and discussion purposes only.

Burrito place say bye. Noodle place coming. Sandwich shop say bye to be replaced by rice bowl shop.

(Btw This hasn’t happened)

My response:

Quote
It's not just Asian...it's also geared toward younger generation who want lighter and fresh foods as well as fusion type foods.  TIC has brought in places like Urban Plates, Snooze, Counter, Hopdaddy, Wokcano, etc.  as well as Chinese restaurants, Korean BBQ, and others.   

But ultimately...I don't get your point, shouldn't TIC be trying to bring in business that appeal to the demographics of the area?

Again...go read my actual comments...not what you think I said.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 09:51:26 AM
We all know you are hurting TIC brand. Keep it up. I’m sure they are enjoying reading your comments.


Yeah...like TIC cares about this board or me.  LOL...go get a slice of MC pie and make yourself feel better.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 10:03:42 AM
We all know you are hurting TIC brand. Keep it up. I’m sure they are enjoying reading your comments.


Yeah...like TIC cares about this board or me.  LOL...go get a slice of MC pie and make yourself feel better.

Maybe they do or maybe they don’t (This is a while back. I remember a TI member complaining on TI about his/her new home and then the member mentioned that TIC resolved the problem after that person posted.)

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 09, 2019, 10:10:15 AM
To be fair, no one have to sell TIC image. The system and stats has been in place for a few decades now. Every year the FBI crime reports generated and put Irvine on the top spots for safety. You also get the topography landscapes of mountain to sea and you can see this everyday to make it a desire able location to live in. Foods option are endless. Irvine is a well balanced well manage city.

Went and visit my brother in Torrance a couple of weeks ago. Pot holes are all the city and citizen are picketing and yelling why the conditions of roads are so bad. You got south central LA and Compton’s doing the same thing of yelling.

 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on May 09, 2019, 10:23:22 AM
Years ago I used to work in Pasadena commuting from Irvine, (insane drive) traffics on the 210 is just horrible even with carpools, it was so bad that I resort to surface street at least your car still move. So Waze put me on all these surface streets sometimes as early as at the interchange if 57 and 210 to reach old town Pasadena via surface street.

From there you zig zag your ways through all these different cities and there are pocket area of surrounding cities to Acadia is ok, and for the most part it’s pretty old and run down. Acadia suppose to be pricey but still if you in the area of foods, services and businesses, it’s can be pretty bad. Pasadena homes are huge and spread out. Old and require a lot of up keep and maintenance. It is not clean and green like Irvine. There are tons of businesses and eatery here, the run down place constantly get revitalize by TIC if they owned it. Many times I see tear up and ripped down and renovate when it’s perfectly in good shape. So TIC, yes rent is high because they do maintain and up keep that world class image.

The route you drove took you through mostly Monrovia,Irwindale, Baldwin Park, and Covina. The surface street you took to pass through Arcadia was most likely Huntington Dr or Foothill Blvd. That would not allow you to see the good part Arcadia that draws the FCBs. The Arcadia people actually talk about is north of Foothill Blvd the " mansion Arcadia" where it closely resembles Shady Canyon but with bigger lots.

I used to lived in Arcadia went there for high school. My parents owned a home in the Arcadia foothills before moving to Shady Canyon. Even they would call it similar.

Overall Arcadia has a diverse mix of Asian population similar to Irvine. Food and Business wise, it's definitely no worse than Irvine, at least from my perspective. Irvine has improved a lot but so has Arcadia. Which is why both cities are still pricey and attract FCBs.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on May 09, 2019, 11:06:18 AM
Arcadia is a good example to illustrate, at least in part, what Irvinecommuter is saying. Free market without a gatekeeper like TIC, essentially allowed Asian restaurants to develop naturally as the demographic shifted in Arcadia. That’s why there were many Asian restaurants like Din Tai Fung decades before Irvine.

Take 85 degree for example. 85 degree was denied multiple times by TIC not because they were not willing to pay top dollar. They were denied because it did not align with TIC’s vision, at least initially. TIC was slow to adapt to what a younger more Asian demographic wanted.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on May 09, 2019, 11:17:28 AM
My feeling is Arcadia/Rowland Heights/Monterey Park are all more Asian than Irvine meaning people speak asian there more than english, and there are way more asian store signs in asian languages.  However, with all the new asian eateries and shops opening up, I see Irvine changing.  Perhaps TIC is trying to slow it down at the cost of making more money.


There is a study that shows something like 150,000 people left CA in 2018, but 200,000 immigrants came in.
I'm guessing white flight.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 09, 2019, 11:24:43 AM
These all came in the last 3 to 4 years...TIC has made it a point to add non-traditional restaurants that are geared toward younger and/or Asians palates.  It's pretty obvious what they are doing.  It makes total sense. 

I think you are chicken/egging this... those places started becoming popular in the last 10 years or so, some of them are brand new to SoCal.

I don't think it's totally TIC's vision, those places came to them, they didn't look for them.

And you forget to list the ones that came and went... Pizza 90 is closed, the Asian fusion place in Spectrum closed, stalwarts like Strickland's Ice Cream, Subway and Golden Spoon are closed. It's just the cycle of retail, not necessarily Bren's crystal ball.

Just like housing, people don't only want to live in Irvine, they want to open businesses here. Maybe TIC"s vision was to relax their requirements but what you see happening in Irvine is happening to most retail.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 11:40:13 AM
These all came in the last 3 to 4 years...TIC has made it a point to add non-traditional restaurants that are geared toward younger and/or Asians palates.  It's pretty obvious what they are doing.  It makes total sense. 

I think you are chicken/egging this... those places started becoming popular in the last 10 years or so, some of them are brand new to SoCal.

I don't think it's totally TIC's vision, those places came to them, they didn't look for them.

And you forget to list the ones that came and went... Pizza 90 is closed, the Asian fusion place in Spectrum closed, stalwarts like Strickland's Ice Cream, Subway and Golden Spoon are closed. It's just the cycle of retail, not necessarily Bren's crystal ball.

Just like housing, people don't only want to live in Irvine, they want to open businesses here. Maybe TIC"s vision was to relax their requirements but what you see happening in Irvine is happening to most retail.

I don't think it's their vision at all...that's my point.  They are trying to catch up to DJ, Northwood, and Mitsuwa malls because they got caught staring at the market rather than having the foresight and insight to see the impact a changing demographic (younger and more Asian) would have to Irvine and the businesses/restaurant they would want.  They had a vision that was changed because it was forced upon them. 

Take Orchard Hills....instead of putting an ethnic market there...they went back to a Pavilions...a "high-end" supermarket that is meant to serve a tradition American upper class family.  They fundamentally ignored that fact that the surrounding area is like 60% Asian...not just Asian...1st generation Asian.   

In all of TIC's plaza's...there is only one Asian market: 99 Ranch on Culver.  H Mart, Zion, Mitsuwa, Seafood City, the other 99 Ranch are all in non-TIC malls.  There are so many other Asian super market chains...HK, arriang, Murakai, Galleria, 168 that TIC could bring in but they have chosen not to.  Instead, they have stuck with American markets like Ralph's, Albertson, Whole Foods, Sprouts, etc. 

Now...I am not privy to TIC's internal data and polling so I am sure they have reasons to do what they do but TIC was caught reacting..rather than leading as they usually do.

One personal story on this issue...we considered opening a boba cafe back in 2006/2007 and contacted TIC about a potential site.  The agent's response was "sorry..we are not adding any more boba shops...we don't think people need them." 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Kenkoko on May 09, 2019, 11:42:43 AM
My feeling is Arcadia/Rowland Heights/Monterey Park are all more Asian than Irvine meaning people speak asian there more than english, and there are way more asian store signs in asian languages.  However, with all the new asian eateries and shops opening up, I see Irvine changing.  Perhaps TIC is trying to slow it down at the cost of making more money.

That's more true for Rowland Heights and MP than Arcadia. Arcadia, overall, resembles more Irvine than Rowland Heights.

There is a study that shows something like 150,000 people left CA in 2018, but 200,000 immigrants came in.
I'm guessing white flight.

Irvine
1990 Total Population 110k, White 86k, Asian 19k
2000 Total Population 143k, White 87k, Asian 43k
2010 Total Population 212k, White 105k, Asian 95k
2017 Total Population 277k, White  113k, Asian 130k
.
Overall Irvine population grew 250% since 1990. White population certainly did not grow anywhere close to that (at 31%). Asian population grew 680% since 1990.

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 09, 2019, 11:46:17 AM
Well... TIC added 99 Ranch before any of the non-TIC centers added their larger Asian supermarkets (except for the Indian/Persian one near Buffalo Wild Wings and a smaller Asian market that used to be in Heritage Plaza).
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 11:50:27 AM
Well... TIC added 99 Ranch before any of the non-TIC centers added their larger Asian supermarkets (except for the Indian/Persian one near Buffalo Wild Wings and a smaller Asian market that used to be in Heritage Plaza).

Yes but that was like mid-1990s....and they also have that Indian Mart in the marketplace.

But in totality...they have ignored ethnic and young customers for a long time.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 09, 2019, 11:59:09 AM
Well... TIC added 99 Ranch before any of the non-TIC centers added their larger Asian supermarkets (except for the Indian/Persian one near Buffalo Wild Wings and a smaller Asian market that used to be in Heritage Plaza).

Yes but that was like mid-1990s....and they also have that Indian Mart in the marketplace.

But in totality...they have ignored ethnic and young customers for a long time.

I don't think that's an accurate statement. They weren't ignoring them, they were just waiting for more proof that the business will last. Take 85 degrees, posters here said they were turned down by TIC, but now there is one in the Spectrum (which had horrible service when I was there).

Also, based on the demographics that Kenkoko posted, seems like retail adjusted with the customer base... and it will always lag. And, if your city already has centers who will take on those higher risk businesses, then are you actually ignoring them?

DJ wasn't a hit when it first started, this stuff takes time.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: WTTCHMN on May 09, 2019, 12:03:57 PM
In all of TIC's plaza's...there is only one Asian market: 99 Ranch on Culver.  H Mart, Zion, Mitsuwa, Seafood City, the other 99 Ranch are all in non-TIC malls.

The Zion on University is on TIC property.  Same with Wholesome Choice.

Also Namaste Indian Market at the Marketplace.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 12:07:24 PM
Well... TIC added 99 Ranch before any of the non-TIC centers added their larger Asian supermarkets (except for the Indian/Persian one near Buffalo Wild Wings and a smaller Asian market that used to be in Heritage Plaza).

Yes but that was like mid-1990s....and they also have that Indian Mart in the marketplace.

But in totality...they have ignored ethnic and young customers for a long time.

I don't think that's an accurate statement. They weren't ignoring them, they were just waiting for more proof that the business will last. Take 85 degrees, posters here said they were turned down by TIC, but now there is one in the Spectrum (which had horrible service when I was there).

Also, based on the demographics that Kenkoko posted, seems like retail adjusted with the customer base... and it will always lag. And, if your city already has centers who will take on those higher risk businesses, then are you actually ignoring them?

DJ wasn't a hit when it first started, this stuff takes time.

They just added the 85 Deg...like this year...10 years after DJ opened and tens of 85 Degrees opened elsewhere.  Even before coming to the US, 85 Degs was largest coffee chain in Taiwan (beating out Starbucks) with like 230+ stores in Taiwan and stores in Australia, China, and Hong Kong.  Someone with some level of insight into the Asian/Taiwan retail market would have recognize 85 Deg as a retail force especially in an area with a growing Asian population.  Nope.

What I am telling you is that many of the stores that TIC lost on were not risk...they were established retail stores with long and solid history.  TIC just didn't see it. 

Diamond Jamboree was always popular...it just didn't have the stores but 85 deg was crazy from day one as was the H Mart.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 12:08:37 PM
In all of TIC's plaza's...there is only one Asian market: 99 Ranch on Culver.  H Mart, Zion, Mitsuwa, Seafood City, the other 99 Ranch are all in non-TIC malls.

The Zion on University is on TIC property.  Same with Wholesome Choice.

Also Namaste Indian Market at the Marketplace.

You are absolutely right...I forgot that they just converted the Albertson to a Zion. 

Wholesome Choice was also an OG international market.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: BlackkFever on May 09, 2019, 12:21:07 PM
I don't buy your theory that TIC didn't have the foresight to put in Asian retail.

I think they didn't want to chinkify Irvine and tried to keep it as white as possible.

But with all the new home sales, the floodgates had already opened so they finally caved and are now just following the money.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 09, 2019, 12:23:11 PM
You are absolutely right...I forgot that they just converted the Albertson to a Zion. 

Actually, the one on University/Michelson was ethnic before that, it was Farmer's Direct.

In the Woodbridge center, TIC also tried the Korean market Assi. That is also a huge Korean brand but failed, so there was always two sides.

Diamond Jamboree was always popular...it just didn't have the stores but 85 deg was crazy from day one as was the H Mart.

And if I recall correctly, 85 didn't open in Diamond Jamboree when they first opened. DJ was dead the first few months... I remember because we could easily find parking there when it was new.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on May 09, 2019, 12:27:59 PM
Speaking of when DJ first opened, why did Guppy House close and become Paper Lantern?
It always seemed packed.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: newPParker on May 09, 2019, 01:24:44 PM
Speaking of when DJ first opened, why did Guppy House close and become Paper Lantern?
It always seemed packed.

Its been there for a while. Capital Seafood supposedly trying out  fast casual type restaurant with this theme at paper lantern!(allegedly!)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 01:47:53 PM
I don't buy your theory that TIC didn't have the foresight to put in Asian retail.

I think they didn't want to chinkify Irvine and tried to keep it as white as possible.

But with all the new home sales, the floodgates had already opened so they finally caved and are now just following the money.

Prejudice is an element of the lack of foresight.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 01:51:50 PM

Actually, the one on University/Michelson was ethnic before that, it was Farmer's Direct.

In the Woodbridge center, TIC also tried the Korean market Assi. That is also a huge Korean brand but failed, so there was always two sides.


Location...location..location.  Woodbridge is the least Asian part of Irvine.  Why you would put an Asian market there is beyond me. 

Quote

And if I recall correctly, 85 didn't open in Diamond Jamboree when they first opened. DJ was dead the first few months... I remember because we could easily find parking there when it was new.

85, Guppy House, and H Mart were basically the only thing open when DJ opened.  Yes...parking was easy because there were only 3 stores open.

https://www.ocregister.com/2008/09/26/shop-doors-swing-open-at-diamond-jamboree/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 09, 2019, 01:55:18 PM
Speaking of when DJ first opened, why did Guppy House close and become Paper Lantern?
It always seemed packed.

Ownership issues.  All the other Guppy Houses closed too.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 09, 2019, 02:18:31 PM
So back on topic.

Have we:

a. Hit housing bottom.
b. Are on the way back up.
c. Will stay flat.
d. Still going to drop from here.

I should set up another poll. :)
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on May 09, 2019, 02:29:06 PM
Before you can start talking about this, we need to establish how far we have dropped since 2017 and 2018 to now.

Here is the redfin graph for 92620 for houses:


(https://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small/2019_05_08/2/38413/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png)


It looks like there is a drop, but how much?
But honestly, if you used a marker and drew a straight line through the middle of the maroon squigglies, it looks like real estate is going up.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 09, 2019, 04:22:23 PM
Before you can start talking about this, we need to establish how far we have dropped since 2017 and 2018 to now.

Here is the redfin graph for 92620 for houses:


(https://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small/2019_05_08/2/38413/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png)


It looks like there is a drop, but how much?
But honestly, if you used a marker and drew a straight line through the middle of the maroon squigglies, it looks like real estate is going up.

Yes, it does looks like it is trending upward. My other observation from outside of Redfin is the same as your graph. Its moving up ever so lightly.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: superbobbay on May 09, 2019, 09:43:36 PM
DJ really needs to open up a entrance/exit on Jamboree. Why keep funneling cars in on Alton? Worse design ever. Always a hassle going and leaving DJ. With the addition of Hai Di Lao, I bet it's even worse now.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 10, 2019, 08:20:41 AM
DJ really needs to open up a entrance/exit on Jamboree. Why keep funneling cars in on Alton? Worse design ever. Always a hassle going and leaving DJ. With the addition of Hai Di Lao, I bet it's even worse now.

I think that's a City of Irvine thing...they don't allow an entrance on Jamboree. 

You can also go in on McGaw.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 10, 2019, 08:38:36 AM
DJ really needs to open up a entrance/exit on Jamboree. Why keep funneling cars in on Alton? Worse design ever. Always a hassle going and leaving DJ. With the addition of Hai Di Lao, I bet it's even worse now.

I think that's a City of Irvine thing...they don't allow an entrance on Jamboree. 

You can also go in on McGaw.

It was designed to maximize the traffic flows, while reduce the potential accidents from occurring. This is one of the heaviest traffic section on Jamboree as vehicles get on to the 405. It was not a flaw, it intended to saves lives.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 10, 2019, 09:18:30 AM
IT'S OVER (probably not)

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/05/10/homebuying-slump-sales-in-irvine-tustin-drop-23-to-start-2019/
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 10, 2019, 09:43:39 AM
Transactions down, yes. No surprises there.

Look at the median prices for all the zip codes of Irvine.

Heart breaking.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 10, 2019, 12:17:52 PM
Transactions down, yes. No surprises there.

Look at the median prices for all the zip codes of Irvine.

Heart breaking.

Why is it heartbreaking?

Quote
Irvine 92602: $1,380,000 median, down 28.9% in a year. Price rank? 8th of 83. Sales of 123 vs. 66 a year earlier, a gain of 86.4% in 12 months.
Irvine 92603: $995,000 median, down 12.7% in a year. Price rank? No. 11 of 83. Sales of 45 vs. 54 a year earlier, a decline of 16.7% in 12 months.
Irvine 92604: $762,500 median, down 5.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 30 of 83. Sales of 44 vs. 58 a year earlier, a decline of 24.1% in 12 months.
Irvine 92606: $800,000 median, down 8% in a year. Price rank? No. 22 of 83. Sales of 23 vs. 25 a year earlier, a decline of 8% in 12 months.
Irvine 92612: $645,000 median, down 9.2% in a year. Price rank? No. 55 of 83. Sales of 71 vs. 96 a year earlier, a decline of 26% in 12 months.
Irvine 92614: $677,000 median, up 2.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 45 of 83. Sales of 34 vs. 48 a year earlier, a decline of 29.2% in 12 months.
Irvine 92618: $963,500 median, up 23.8% in a year. Price rank? No. 12 of 83. Sales of 248 vs. 356 a year earlier, a decline of 30.3% in 12 months.
Irvine 92620: $1,052,500 median, up 4.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 172 vs. 300 a year earlier, a decline of 42.7% in 12 months.

If you add up the percentages and average them out, it's only a 4.25% drop in median price... or am I doing the math wrong? This could be skewed because it doesn't take into account number of homes in each zip.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on May 10, 2019, 12:30:54 PM
This redfin site says $/sqft increased 0.63% from last year
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market (https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market)

I know redfin is trying to sell realestate so showing a decrease would be bad for business, but at some point we will have to agree on what to use as a reliable source to math the ups and downs.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 10, 2019, 01:14:13 PM
Transactions down, yes. No surprises there.

Look at the median prices for all the zip codes of Irvine.

Heart breaking.

Why is it heartbreaking?

Quote
Irvine 92602: $1,380,000 median, down 28.9% in a year. Price rank? 8th of 83. Sales of 123 vs. 66 a year earlier, a gain of 86.4% in 12 months.
Irvine 92603: $995,000 median, down 12.7% in a year. Price rank? No. 11 of 83. Sales of 45 vs. 54 a year earlier, a decline of 16.7% in 12 months.
Irvine 92604: $762,500 median, down 5.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 30 of 83. Sales of 44 vs. 58 a year earlier, a decline of 24.1% in 12 months.
Irvine 92606: $800,000 median, down 8% in a year. Price rank? No. 22 of 83. Sales of 23 vs. 25 a year earlier, a decline of 8% in 12 months.
Irvine 92612: $645,000 median, down 9.2% in a year. Price rank? No. 55 of 83. Sales of 71 vs. 96 a year earlier, a decline of 26% in 12 months.
Irvine 92614: $677,000 median, up 2.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 45 of 83. Sales of 34 vs. 48 a year earlier, a decline of 29.2% in 12 months.
Irvine 92618: $963,500 median, up 23.8% in a year. Price rank? No. 12 of 83. Sales of 248 vs. 356 a year earlier, a decline of 30.3% in 12 months.
Irvine 92620: $1,052,500 median, up 4.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 172 vs. 300 a year earlier, a decline of 42.7% in 12 months.

If you add up the percentages and average them out, it's only a 4.25% drop in median price... or am I doing the math wrong? This could be skewed because it doesn't take into account number of homes in each zip.

My dried humor. It is still expensive.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 10, 2019, 01:20:25 PM

My dried humor. It is still expensive.

You forgot background music from the smallest violin in existence.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 10, 2019, 03:11:52 PM
So many people thinking the prices are all going up again.

Well, is it time to say... "is it seasonal?"  :D

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on May 10, 2019, 03:42:26 PM
We only point to the data with no forecasting of Irvine housing going up or down.
If you have a better source for Irvine housing data, please post it.


Are we overdue for one of USC's housing updates on Irvine?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 10, 2019, 03:54:31 PM
Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 10, 2019, 04:00:59 PM
Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?

Don’t look at me. I get criticized for saying that.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 10, 2019, 04:36:54 PM
Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?

Don’t look at me. I get criticized for saying that.

 ;D Hey, no criticism made. Just trying to be fair every perspective in this game.
I do feel though the market is doing well especially sub-$1m, but I'm not sure if the price will keep rising. Did we ever have a long stable non-rising or non-dropping market for a long time in the past? I'm not as old so some of you guys might know better, but my understanding is it's always rising too much or falling so miserably. But you never know. It might be "different" this time, right?


Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on May 12, 2019, 04:23:58 PM
Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?

Don’t look at me. I get criticized for saying that.

lol.  who do you think Mety was referencing? 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 12, 2019, 11:33:45 PM
Oh sure. I just find it funny how some people won't use seasonal when the market seems to be doing well, but keep using when the market is slow. Shouldn't we use for both equally?

Don’t look at me. I get criticized for saying that.

lol.  who do you think Mety was referencing?

Not me. Seasonal to me means both good and bad, it’s all encompassing.

Just look at the graphs for the last 20 years, prices ebb and flow during the same seasons.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 13, 2019, 03:24:56 PM
What???? The bottom is already passed, looking for the price to go up from here. Priced Out!!! Again.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on May 13, 2019, 03:50:52 PM
What???? The bottom is already passed, looking for the price to go up from here. Priced Out!!! Again.

Did you need some help reading the latest chart?  Or do I need some help in detecting the invisible /s :P
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 13, 2019, 04:08:35 PM
No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on May 13, 2019, 06:35:04 PM
No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong. :P
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 13, 2019, 09:02:39 PM
No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong. :P

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 14, 2019, 10:32:05 AM
No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong. :P

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?

Come on. Be nice, sir :D  Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 14, 2019, 10:42:45 AM
No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong. :P

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?

Come on. Be nice, sir :D  Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 14, 2019, 10:47:58 AM
No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong. :P

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?

Come on. Be nice, sir :D  Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.

Yes on refinancing, but no on the price. The price is definitely lower than last year's. Sure, not much lower, but considering the default annual appreciation (about 3%), it's actually lower than usual. Many above $1m homes are coming down to $900k ranges in order to sell.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 14, 2019, 12:53:46 PM
No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong. :P

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?



Come on. Be nice, sir :D  Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.

Yes on refinancing, but no on the price. The price is definitely lower than last year's. Sure, not much lower, but considering the default annual appreciation (about 3%), it's actually lower than usual. Many above $1m homes are coming down to $900k ranges in order to sell.

Links????
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 14, 2019, 02:11:10 PM
No I don't need charts. I go with what I can afford. And the more I wait, the more it will be out of reach for me.

I don't think the products that I want will be any cheaper than they are today, 1 year from now or 5 years from now. Only more expensive while my buying power diminish as the trade war escalates.

What are you looking for?  I think there's a good chance I can link to this in a year to prove one of us was wrong. :P

From your writing, I think you are in the camp of sold, and now waiting correct? How long have you been waiting?



Come on. Be nice, sir :D  Everyone has different life and reason to sell and buy homes. Owning doesn't mean better while I do agree on much benefits of it. Sometimes renting in an area or a home a year or two give us better idea of what we need next stage. Also buying now is much better than buying last year in terms of the price and the rate so the price doesn't always go up up up. Some might say it's not much different from now and a year ago, but for some people, those couple hundred thousand and 0.5% rate do make much difference. Besides, we don't even know if ThirtySomething is waiting.

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.

Yes on refinancing, but no on the price. The price is definitely lower than last year's. Sure, not much lower, but considering the default annual appreciation (about 3%), it's actually lower than usual. Many above $1m homes are coming down to $900k ranges in order to sell.

Links????

Don't believe me? Ask USCTrojan. Everyone seems to believe him even when he is saying the same thing the most people disagree  ;D.  For example, eyephone and meccos were saying what USCTorjan is saying now, but everyone was questioning them while no one questions USCTrojan but gives him thanks. Don't get me wrong. I respect him and his opinion also, but just funny how people react differently to different people even when the content is the same.

Anyways, I believe enough links have been given here about the price deductions this year from end of last year. The sales seem to have picked up quite a bit, but the main reason I would say is because it's that season of the year. Lower rates have been helping also. But the homes trying to sell above the last comp price are not really selling. They stay long in the market and finally cut the price like 3 times usually. Those that sell are all priced a little bit lower than last sold. That's the strategy as of now. I even see the new homes from PS and GP are having price cuts including many more quick move-in homes. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 14, 2019, 02:29:23 PM
I don't recall when USC was saying the same thing as eyephone and meccos.

USC was saying flat to slightly down, but not a significant slowdown... or am I mistaken?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 14, 2019, 02:39:10 PM
I don't recall anyone said significant slowdown. Who did?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on May 14, 2019, 03:25:26 PM

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.

I own a townhouse in Irvine now, and I will be hopefully be buying something bigger soon.  I was about to buy in a  new development for around a million and changed my mind last minute.  So far, if I buy today I'd be saving about ~50k off the list price and get quite a low interest rate from the builder.  I think it will only get better for houses around that price range.  The data shows my anecdote holds true for others across the county.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: eyephone on May 14, 2019, 03:44:10 PM

I don't mean to sound mean, this is just genuine questions for wanting to wait.  Or timing the bottom. So if you were to buy last year with the lower price and higher rate, wouldn't you would be in a better position with the refinancing at a lower rate today or a few months ago? I would say yes.

I own a townhouse in Irvine now, and I will be hopefully be buying something bigger soon.  I was about to buy in a  new development for around a million and changed my mind last minute.  So far, if I buy today I'd be saving about ~50k off the list price and get quite a low interest rate from the builder.  I think it will only get better for houses around that price range.  The data shows my anecdote holds true for others across the county.

Right now cash is king..
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: ThirtySomethingWEquity on May 14, 2019, 06:06:23 PM

Right now cash is king..

I wish, I'm heavy on cash too, light on equities.  Seems like I missed out on a couple rallies this year.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Rizdak on May 14, 2019, 07:31:58 PM
One thing I’ll throw out there. If you are trying to buy your forever owner-occupied home, do you really need to time the market perfectly? I would say buy and hold for the long term if you can comfortably afford it.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 14, 2019, 08:29:10 PM
One thing I’ll throw out there. If you are trying to buy your forever owner-occupied home, do you really need to time the market perfectly? I would say buy and hold for the long term if you can comfortably afford it.

That’s what I’ve been saying.

And why wait for a slowdown if it’s not significant?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on May 15, 2019, 12:51:11 AM
One thing I’ll throw out there. If you are trying to buy your forever owner-occupied home, do you really need to time the market perfectly? I would say buy and hold for the long term if you can comfortably afford it.

You dont need to but if you waited 1 year and it saved you 140K plus nearly 0.75% less on rate, wouldnt that feel much better? 
12% cheaper with nearly 0.75% lower rates.  That equates to roughly 20% cheaper home in 1 year.  OUCH!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/7-Olinda-92602/home/5771806

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Bodega-Bay-92602/home/5771905

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 15, 2019, 07:53:00 AM
@meccos12:

That's a good example, but I can't find any other Sonoma models in that area (Northpark) with that kind of drop, which is why I said it's hard to find the bargains on a specific floorplan.

Also, the listing activity looks weird, 2 price drops and same realty group for buyer and seller.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on May 15, 2019, 08:46:07 AM
@meccos12:

That's a good example, but I can't find any other Sonoma models in that area (Northpark) with that kind of drop, which is why I said it's hard to find the bargains on a specific floorplan.

Also, the listing activity looks weird, 2 price drops and same realty group for buyer and seller.

I dont think the activity looks weird.  Realtyone is a large group in Irvine so it is not unusual to have same group representing both sides.  Also I do not see what is unusual about having 2 price drops in 3 months.  If there was no interest, I would expect at least 2 drops in that time frame. 

With that said, I would have been more sad if I was the person who bought this:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/16-Bodega-Bay-92602/home/5771794#marketing-remarks-scroll

On the same street, but paid 173k more.  I wouldnt be so sad if this was a 4M dollar house since as a precentage it wouldnt be much, but for a house thats barely above 1M?  That is huge.


Here is another.  Even smaller house but sold for 1.19

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/20-Bodega-Bay-92602/home/5771527
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 15, 2019, 10:49:16 AM
I saw those other Bodega ones but where are the cheaper ones people should be able to buy today?

If it's a real slowdown, shouldn't there be a number of these same models available for less?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: zubs on May 15, 2019, 10:59:27 AM
9 Bodega Bay got a great deal!
Here's the graph for houses @92602.


(https://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small/2019_05_15/2/38398/MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png)


I wonder how hard it was to buy 9 Bodega Bay for such a discount.
Perhaps there's more to come since it only closed a week ago.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: akkord on May 15, 2019, 11:53:10 AM
For those posting links of sold homes at significant discounts, any in the sub 900k range, detached condos/homes, 3/2 or bigger, that have sold at a significant discount recently relative to their area?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 15, 2019, 01:07:25 PM
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: akkord on May 15, 2019, 01:32:03 PM
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

I'll use your definition, what is yours of a significant discount?  Meccos had 12% in a previous post, but I'm open. If you want a number let's say 10% price discount from the past year and a half vs the past 3/4 months, is that fair? It's more conservative than Mecco's 12% example. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on May 15, 2019, 02:00:29 PM
I saw those other Bodega ones but where are the cheaper ones people should be able to buy today?

If it's a real slowdown, shouldn't there be a number of these same models available for less?

Why do you assume there would be a number of these same models out at any given time?  There were a few that sold last year for a high price as demonstrated.  The one that sold this year was significantly discounted and there is one more out right now.  The one currently listed is much more upgraded than any of the previous homes that sold, but is listed at or lower than the model matches that sold in 2018 and has been on the market for 50 days. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Dinuba-92602/home/5771881

Guess what is coming next for this house?  A price adjustment since it has not sold in nearly 50 days.  This will sell for less than the homes that sold in 2018 even though it is a much more upgraded home.  It is just a matter of how much less. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: meccos12 on May 15, 2019, 02:02:08 PM
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

Everyone will have a different definitions, however I do not think anyone will argue a 12-15% drop in 1 year as demonstrated by the examples above. 
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 15, 2019, 02:16:16 PM
Does this 2 or 3 homes dropped their price represent the entire Irvine market or homes that are currently listed on the MLS in Irvine?

Hardly, because those two homes were in distress of a divorce sale. It happenned to be on the same street. Maybe Bob and Mary did a switcharoo of partners.

Swinging it.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 15, 2019, 02:23:34 PM
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

I'll use your definition, what is yours of a significant discount?  Meccos had 12% in a previous post, but I'm open. If you want a number let's say 10% price discount from the past year and a half vs the past 3/4 months, is that fair? It's more conservative than Mecco's 12% example.

I was talking to everyone not just you, but thanks for answering.

Here are some examples not just limiting to North Park but Irvine area. Please check the price histories. Not all of them are under super recent categories, but the point is the waiting situation instead of buying right away played well between the entire last year and recent.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/110-Confederation-Way-Irvine-CA-92602/25520651_zpid/
This was listed first in 2018 at $980 and finally got sold Feb this year at $808k. You can do the math how much % that is and it's much higher than your 10%. West Irvine is pretty close to NP also.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Keepsake-92618/home/40102842
The buyer would have paid $52k more if bought in Oct. 2018 when first listed. Good thing they waited.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/181-Pathway-92618/home/45377541
$800k to $691k. For real? It was not a short sale either.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/216-Firefly-Irvine-CA-92618/147889373_zpid/
Almost $40k savings? Sure, we can take that. Oh, the interest rate got better also.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/74-Borghese-92618/home/51681127
I saved $270k on this one. Thanks!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Brindisi-92603/home/58555201
Ok, not as much savings, but still $75k reduction sounds good.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/103-Canopy-92603/home/5944496
Almost 10% cuts.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Campanero-E-92620/home/4784525
$900k to $797? Psss..

Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 15, 2019, 02:24:50 PM
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

Everyone will have a different definitions, however I do not think anyone will argue a 12-15% drop in 1 year as demonstrated by the examples above.

But again, that number might not be much significant drop to IHO. So if that's not agreed upon, I don't think the discussion would work well.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 15, 2019, 02:36:15 PM
@Mety:

You should post those in my "Significant Savings" thread.

I don't have time to look through them in detail but I think some of those have a story other than "slowdown".

Keep them coming!
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: Mety on May 15, 2019, 02:45:43 PM
@Mety:

You should post those in my "Significant Savings" thread.

I don't have time to look through them in detail but I think some of those have a story other than "slowdown".

Keep them coming!

Sure, I can copy and paste in that thread also. I was just answering akkord since he/she asked.
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 15, 2019, 04:47:17 PM
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

Everyone will have a different definitions, however I do not think anyone will argue a 12-15% drop in 1 year as demonstrated by the examples above.

But again, that number might not be much significant drop to IHO. So if that's not agreed upon, I don't think the discussion would work well.

I agree. But I don’t think the overall Irvine market has dropped 12-15%.

That’s not what the data says... or am I reading it wrong?
Title: Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
Post by: akkord on May 16, 2019, 08:09:54 AM
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/110-Confederation-Way-Irvine-CA-92602/25520651_zpid/

This was listed first in 2018 at $980 and finally got sold Feb this year at $808k. You can do the math how much % that is and it's much higher than your 10%. West Irvine is pretty close to NP also.

980k for this is way overpriced especially backing the tollroad, so realistically this would have never sold at 980k.  I've seen 4/3's in West Irvine going at this price point or less.  I actually saw this home on redfin when it was first listed but is a hard pass when backing the tollroad.  Homes near major roadways should always be less than comparable homes farther away in my opinion. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Keepsake-92618/home/40102842
The buyer would have paid $52k more if bought in Oct. 2018 when first listed. Good thing they waited.

Are these comparable homes that sold in 2018 to your above example?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/82-Cienega-92618/home/12253701 800k, but ~200 sf bigger price per sf is cheaper here
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Bell-Chime-92618/home/21928642, 762k, but ~200 sf smaller price per sf is more expensive

Both these homes are <5% sold price diff from your example. 

List price vs sold price isn't an indication IMO since you have some crazy sellers out there.  I could list something at 2mm when it's actually only worth 1mm on the market, does that mean someone saved 50% when they bought at 1mm?  Do you have examples of simila