Talk Irvine

General => Economy & Finance => Topic started by: DrTravel on September 26, 2018, 05:23:32 PM

Title: SALT Deduction
Post by: DrTravel on September 26, 2018, 05:23:32 PM
Well I just received my property tax bill today :-[

Remember the good old days when we could deduct all of our SALT but now it's limited to $10K. Here's the question I'm pondering...we used to deduct the state income taxes (plus all the other taxes) paid in one year but in the following year we had to declare our state income tax refund as income. So now my property tax bill will exceed $10K by itself...pretty much like everyone who owns a home on this forum. It makes no sense to include my state income taxes in my deduction calculation because I don't need it to exceed $10K. I wonder, do I need to include it? Will TurboTax automatically include it - or give me an option to choose which taxes I want to include in my $10K? The reason I ask is because If I don't declare this deduction, then I don't have to declare the state income tax refund as income. Seems like a double whammy to be forced to declare the useless deduction but then be required to declare the refund as income.

Inquiring minds want to know. I'm sure there are numerous experts on this forum who know the answers!
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on September 26, 2018, 05:46:17 PM
Not a CPA, nor do I play one on TV, but just finished reading this:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09262018_property_taxes.asp (http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09262018_property_taxes.asp)

Which made me think any advice given today is going to change quite a bit over the next 120 days.

My .02c

SGIP 
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Perspective on September 26, 2018, 07:28:16 PM
Did you pay AMT in 2017? Is your financial situation pretty similar in 2018? If your income supports a ~$1M mortgage, you have to be in the AMT; and if you are, you haven't been fully deducting property taxes and CA income taxes anyway.

Deductions are always voluntary.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: qwerty on September 26, 2018, 11:45:39 PM
@ DRtravel - I hope you really are a doctor and don’t work in finance :-)

Prior to the tax law change that capped the SALT deduction, if on your federal return you deducted 30,000 in state income taxes paid, then filed your California tax return and got a refund of 5,000 from california, which means you ended up paying 25,000 in taxes for that particular tax year.  In the subsequent tax year when you received the 5,000 back from CA, the IRS is just recapturing the taxes you should have paid in the prior year because your deduction should have been 25,000 vs 30,000. So you essentially got an interest free loan from the IRS.

Now under the new tax law, since they cap your SALT taxes at 10k, the same situation would apply as in prior years to the extent you paid less than 10k in state taxes but deducted 10k (or deducted 8k but ended up paying 6k, etc). Even if you enter in TurboTax that you paid say, 20k in SaLt taxes for 2018, it will cap it at 10k. So as long as you paid more than 10k in SaLT taxes related to 2018 the IRS won’t tax your 2018 California refund received in 2019. In the past, Your refund was only deemed “income” because you over-deducted in the prior year.  Now as long as you pay 10k in salt taxes you are not overdeducting.

Hopefully that makes sense.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: DrTravel on September 27, 2018, 09:48:02 AM
No AMT, don't work in finance and not a medical doctor.

I think I just will not list state income taxes on Schedule A as they will not be needed to reach $10K. Just hoping that TurboTax will allow me to - you know the program automatically fills in stuff from other forms so once I enter the W-2 stuff it will populate the state income tax on Schedule A.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 07:56:06 AM
OK, did my taxes over the weekend and spent the day with my CPA.  As I suspected and as he told me last year...TAX CUT.  I will not share specifics but his explanation was that the brackets were not only lowered but widened,  AMT reduction, and higher child credits helped immensely.  My mortgage interest write off remained the same as my mortgage is grandfathered in and under $750k anyway.  He has done over 25 returns already and the results were much the same.  Even with the elimination of SALT my tax refund increased nicely.  Thank you Mr. President!!
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 08:04:50 AM
OK, did my taxes over the weekend and spent the day with my CPA.  As I suspected and as he told me last year...TAX CUT.  I will not share specifics but his explanation was that the brackets were not only lowered but widened,  AMT reduction, and higher child credits helped immensely.  My mortgage interest write off remained the same as my mortgage is grandfathered in and under $750k anyway.  He has done over 25 returns already and the results were much the same.  Even with the elimination of SALT my tax refund increased nicely.  Thank you Mr. President!!

You forgot to mention about the reduction of the state tax and property tax.

Why do you always have to not tell all the facts
An opportunist and manipulator.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 08:10:52 AM
If there is no flaw in the new tax law. Why did Trump and the Republican Congress last year talk about passing a middle class tax cut? (They controlled not houses. They never did of course)

Maybe it was a Midterm fake promise.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 08:11:34 AM
I will always fight for the small guy.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 08:14:54 AM
That is including the State and property tax reduction.  The whole ball of wax, and I got a bigger refund and my effective rate was lower. The numbers don't lie...TAX CUT!!
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 08:24:39 AM
That is including the State and property tax reduction.  The whole ball of wax, and I got a bigger refund and my effective rate was lower. The numbers don't lie...TAX CUT!!

Maybe for you. But the middle class got screwed. They really did. It’s a shame. This is why the GOP is out of touch.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 08:29:22 AM
This is why the GOP lost 40 seats maybe 41.

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 08:52:26 AM
As I said, this seemed typical for my CPA.s clients so far.  If this holds in a state that lost the SALT deductions than it will be even better in all the other states.  We were the ones that were supposed to get hit and my demo specifically was assumed to get destroyed...not the case.  Tax cuts for all!!!
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: woodburyowner on January 28, 2019, 09:01:26 AM
OK, did my taxes over the weekend and spent the day with my CPA.  As I suspected and as he told me last year...TAX CUT.  I will not share specifics but his explanation was that the brackets were not only lowered but widened,  AMT reduction, and higher child credits helped immensely.  My mortgage interest write off remained the same as my mortgage is grandfathered in and under $750k anyway.  He has done over 25 returns already and the results were much the same.  Even with the elimination of SALT my tax refund increased nicely.  Thank you Mr. President!!

Sounds about right.  Most people don't understand how taxes work and just take a few talking points out of context. I'm confident my taxes will go down as well. 

It would be interesting to see in which hypothetical scenarios someones tax liability will go up with the new tax law.    I'm guessing they will be very atypical scenarios.  Anyone care to take a stab at it?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 28, 2019, 09:08:17 AM
@eyephone: Have your taxes gone up or down?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 09:16:14 AM
As I said, this seemed typical for my CPA.s clients so far.  If this holds in a state that lost the SALT deductions than it will be even better in all the other states.  We were the ones that were supposed to get hit and my demo specifically was assumed to get destroyed...not the case.  Tax cuts for all!!!

Of course you metioned you were in the top bracket before.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 09:16:36 AM
@eyephone: Have your taxes gone up or down?

My deductions went down
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 09:22:31 AM
@eyephone: Have your taxes gone up or down?

My deductions went down

Do your taxes first...you may be pleasantly surprised.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 09:43:09 AM
OK, did my taxes over the weekend and spent the day with my CPA.  As I suspected and as he told me last year...TAX CUT.  I will not share specifics but his explanation was that the brackets were not only lowered but widened,  AMT reduction, and higher child credits helped immensely.  My mortgage interest write off remained the same as my mortgage is grandfathered in and under $750k anyway.  He has done over 25 returns already and the results were much the same.  Even with the elimination of SALT my tax refund increased nicely.  Thank you Mr. President!!

Sounds about right.  Most people don't understand how taxes work and just take a few talking points out of context. I'm confident my taxes will go down as well. 

It would be interesting to see in which hypothetical scenarios someones tax liability will go up with the new tax law.    I'm guessing they will be very atypical scenarios.  Anyone care to take a stab at it?

Think if you live in a high tax state (Cali, NY) are a super high income earner (>$1M/year) and you have a high value property (>$1M taxable) and you have a significant mortgage (>$750k)  you are gonna take a hit.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 09:57:09 AM
Even the Presidents enemies take advantage of the new tax laws...but will never admit it.  It's all about the Benjamin's.

The tax strategy behind Joe and Mika’s Florida ‘studio’

After reports that married MSNBC anchors Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski have been mysteriously broadcasting their show from Florida — sources speculated that the location is to benefit Scarborough’s tax situation.

The “Morning Joe” anchors have been reportedly on a home set in Jupiter, Fla., but using Washington, DC, backdrops.

Sources said the reason for the locale was a “tax dodge” — albeit a completely legal one — since Scarborough has a home in Florida and would need to spend a certain amount of the time there for any tax benefit.

By moving to Florida, he’d reduce his tax burden by roughly $550,000. Scarborough reportedly makes $8 million a year and would pay 6.99-percent state income tax in Connecticut, while there’s no state income tax in Florida, the Post’s Josh Kosman reports. To qualify as a Florida resident, he’d need to be there 183 days a year.

https://pagesix.com/2019/01/26/the-tax-strategy-behind-joe-and-mikas-florida-studio/ (https://pagesix.com/2019/01/26/the-tax-strategy-behind-joe-and-mikas-florida-studio/)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 11:51:36 AM
What happened to the fake middle tax plan that was floated by the GOP before the midterms?

Morekas keep throwing the two peace sign in the air.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 12:43:16 PM
Another one would be nice but so far a like the one we got.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 12:49:51 PM
Another one would be nice but so far a like the one we got.

Just say it was a fake promise by the Republicans to try to get votes for the midterms.

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on January 28, 2019, 01:01:25 PM
Another one would be nice but so far a like the one we got.

Just say it was a fake promise by the Republicans to try to get votes for the midterms.

oh the humanity! 
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 01:07:18 PM
Another one would be nice but so far a like the one we got.

Just say it was a fake promise by the Republicans to try to get votes for the midterms.

oh the humanity!

I already shutdown Morekas. What you got?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 01:11:38 PM
Another one would be nice but so far a like the one we got.

Just say it was a fake promise by the Republicans to try to get votes for the midterms.



OK, " it was a fake promise by the Republicans to try to get votes for the midterms. "..are you telling me politicians lie to influence voters?  Fetch me a fainting couch I think I'm getting the vapors...
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 01:14:29 PM
Another one would be nice but so far a like the one we got.

Just say it was a fake promise by the Republicans to try to get votes for the midterms.



OK, " it was a fake promise by the Republicans to try to get votes for the midterms. "..are you telling me politicians lie to influence voters?  Fetch me a fainting couch I think I'm getting the vapors...

As long as you admit it. I’m okay with that. 

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 01:17:30 PM
Yah, I don't care they lie...they all do. You're a fool if you believe any of them.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 01:19:38 PM
Yah, I don't care they lie...they all do. You're a fool if you believe any of them.

First take a look in the mirror before you call me names.

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Mety on January 28, 2019, 01:37:53 PM
So if this SALT thing goes back to how it was in 7 years, those who are paying less taxes this time will be paying more taxes then?



Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 03:33:47 PM
No, currently the changes to AMT and the lower brackets offset the loss of SALT. All things being equal, if  they bring back the SALT deductions then it would lower our taxes more.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Mety on January 28, 2019, 03:42:54 PM
No, currently the changes to AMT and the lower brackets offset the loss of SALT. All things being equal, if  they bring back the SALT deductions then it would lower our taxes more.

(https://i.imgur.com/Q9DlrQ0.gif)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: woodburyowner on January 28, 2019, 04:30:34 PM
OK, did my taxes over the weekend and spent the day with my CPA.  As I suspected and as he told me last year...TAX CUT.  I will not share specifics but his explanation was that the brackets were not only lowered but widened,  AMT reduction, and higher child credits helped immensely.  My mortgage interest write off remained the same as my mortgage is grandfathered in and under $750k anyway.  He has done over 25 returns already and the results were much the same.  Even with the elimination of SALT my tax refund increased nicely.  Thank you Mr. President!!

Sounds about right.  Most people don't understand how taxes work and just take a few talking points out of context. I'm confident my taxes will go down as well. 

It would be interesting to see in which hypothetical scenarios someones tax liability will go up with the new tax law.    I'm guessing they will be very atypical scenarios.  Anyone care to take a stab at it?

Think if you live in a high tax state (Cali, NY) are a super high income earner (>$1M/year) and you have a high value property (>$1M taxable) and you have a significant mortgage (>$750k)  you are gonna take a hit.

Isn't this the profile of a wealthy individual?  I thought the tax cut only was only for the rich!? 

All kidding aside, I think this person's liability would go down with the tax cut due to the shifted income brackets. 
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 28, 2019, 05:01:07 PM
Also, we don’t know if he his business through a LLC.
With a Lower tax rate.

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 28, 2019, 08:26:56 PM
Let’s say you make $2 million a year (w2), you are in the highest bracket, additionally, you just bought a $3 million dollar home ($35000.00 prop tax bill, $25000 in excess of your $10k limit). Let’s say you financed it (stupid but let’s say you got a $2m mortgage) you can now only write off the interest on the first $750k so that doesn’t help much. In this specific case without the SALT you probably would see your taxes rise but this guy is not atypical at all.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Cares on January 29, 2019, 09:58:18 AM
Just curious and because I'm too lazy to do the research, is the $750k limit on TOTAL loans? Or if I have more than that spread across properties but all less then $750k I can deduct the full amount?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 29, 2019, 10:36:41 AM
Also, we don’t know if he his business through a LLC.
With a Lower tax rate.

It’s all relative to Morekas statement. We really don’t know if he runs the income through his own company with a lower tax rate than regular W2 earners. (Just keep that in mind)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 29, 2019, 10:48:41 AM
I w2 it if you really care. The limit is $750k on the primary loan and I think it is up to $100k on a HELOC.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on January 29, 2019, 11:10:58 AM
I w2 it if you really care. The limit is $750k on the primary loan and I think it is up to $100k on a HELOC.

Don’t you get a 1099? (Sell investment products)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 29, 2019, 11:17:59 AM
This whole discussion is pointless because we will have the data soon enough...Morekaos' individual return is irrelevant.

Meanwhile, the point of the tax cuts was not to give rich people more money back...it was to spurn growth and hiring...and yet...nothing.

Quote
The Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion in tax cuts appears to have not made any major impact on businesses’ capital investment or hiring plans, according to a new survey.

A quarterly poll from the National Association for Business Economics published Monday found that some companies reported accelerating investments because of lower corporate taxes, but a whopping 84% of respondents said they had not changed their plans. That’s up slightly from 81% in the previous survey published in October, Reuters reports.

The White House had said the massive stimulus package, which cut the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, would boost business spending and job growth. The tax cuts that came into effect in January 2018 were the biggest overhaul of the U.S. tax code in more than 30 years.

http://fortune.com/2019/01/28/trump-tax-reform-hiring-investment/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/did-trumps-tax-cuts-boost-hiring-most-companies-say-no

Meanwhile, our deficit has jumped 17% in 2018 ($779 billion).   
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on January 29, 2019, 12:06:35 PM
I w2 it if you really care. The limit is $750k on the primary loan and I think it is up to $100k on a HELOC.

Don’t you get a 1099? (Sell investment products)

Yah, I get one for my portfolio.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: daedalus on April 13, 2019, 10:32:38 AM
Our data point:  Our AGI was slightly higher in 2018 vs 2017, and we paid 7.7% less in federal tax (as a percentage of total tax paid for 2017).    Our taxable income was a good bit higher and we have 1 child.  No noteworthy changes to our situation.  I didn't like seeing our Schedule A deductions fall off a cliff, but I won't complain about paying less in tax at the end of the day.   *this is going off my tax guy's headline #s, subject to my review. 

I am the guy who targets 0 owe/0 refund with my W4s, but I forgot about having pulled our prop taxes ahead in Dec of 2017.  So I shot myself in the foot with our state taxes for 2018 because now we owe based on that.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: daedalus on April 13, 2019, 10:39:05 AM
Something that concerns me about the new tax system is that with the larger standard deduction, more people will not get a tax break for donating to charities.  Anyone who itemized before but who now claims the standard deduction will have not have the fed govt as a donating partner to soften the blow of their philanthropy.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: woodburyowner on April 14, 2019, 11:19:25 AM
My data point - AGI went up 3.3% vs 2017.  Tax liability went down 10.5% (2017 total tax paid vs. 2018 total tax paid) even though my income went up .  Pretty significant savings for me.  Main factors for the decrease in liability are expanded tax bracket, new child care credit, and change in AMT (essentially removing it).  I am still itemizing although the deductions are significantly lower now. 
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 15, 2019, 10:23:00 AM
#winning, even the New York Times has to admit the truth every once in a while.

Face It: You (Probably) Got a Tax Cut
Studies consistently find that the 2017 law cut taxes for most Americans. Most of them don’t buy it.

If you’re an American taxpayer, you probably got a tax cut last year. And there’s a good chance you don’t believe it.

Ever since President Trump signed the Republican-sponsored tax bill in December 2017, independent analyses have consistently found that a large majority of Americans would owe less because of the law. Preliminary data based on tax filings has shown the same.

Yet as the first tax filing season under the new law wraps up on Monday, taxpayers are skeptical. A survey conducted in early April for The New York Times by the online research platform SurveyMonkey found that just 40 percent of Americans believed they had received a tax cut under the law. Just 20 percent were certain they had done so. That’s consistent with previous polls finding that most Americans felt they hadn’t gotten a tax cut, and that a large minority thought their taxes had risen — though not even one in 10 households actually got a tax increase.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/business/economy/income-tax-cut.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/business/economy/income-tax-cut.html)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 15, 2019, 10:46:18 AM
#winning, even the New York Times has to admit the truth every once in a while.

Face It: You (Probably) Got a Tax Cut
Studies consistently find that the 2017 law cut taxes for most Americans. Most of them don’t buy it.

If you’re an American taxpayer, you probably got a tax cut last year. And there’s a good chance you don’t believe it.

Ever since President Trump signed the Republican-sponsored tax bill in December 2017, independent analyses have consistently found that a large majority of Americans would owe less because of the law. Preliminary data based on tax filings has shown the same.

Yet as the first tax filing season under the new law wraps up on Monday, taxpayers are skeptical. A survey conducted in early April for The New York Times by the online research platform SurveyMonkey found that just 40 percent of Americans believed they had received a tax cut under the law. Just 20 percent were certain they had done so. That’s consistent with previous polls finding that most Americans felt they hadn’t gotten a tax cut, and that a large minority thought their taxes had risen — though not even one in 10 households actually got a tax increase.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/business/economy/income-tax-cut.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/business/economy/income-tax-cut.html)

I love that the fight is where "people actually got a tax break"...you understand that this is a political issue, which means people's perception is 90% of the battle.  If people don't feel like they are benefiting from the tax break...it's a lost cause.  The tax break was supposed to be the big thing that the GOP ran on for the midterm because they frontloaded the savings...that clearly didn't work.

Also..what was the effects of the tax breaks?  Despite all the rhetoric,  Trump still has not hit that magical 3% GDP annual growth mark and with the tax cut sugar high going away...it's not likely to do that in the foreseeable future.  Meanwhile, deficit way up and revenues way down...where is the beef?

Quote
The U.S. posted its biggest monthly budget deficit on record last month, amid a 20 percent drop in corporate tax revenue and a boost in spending so far this fiscal year.

The budget gap widened to $234 billion in February, compared with a fiscal gap of $215.2 billion a year earlier. That gap surpassed the previous monthly record of $231.7 billion set seven years ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-posts-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-on-record-in-february
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 15, 2019, 10:59:10 AM
we all paid less taxes last year thanks to trump!

you know it, i know it, we all know it.

(https://mediadc.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/f10c24d/2147483647/strip/true/crop/3649x2378+0+0/resize/3649x2378!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmediadc.brightspotcdn.com%2Fa2%2Fd2%2Fb8223b0f46fdb490d717eff9df2a%2Fgettyimages-961776168.jpg)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 15, 2019, 11:03:02 AM
I paid about the same but again what exactly is the big picture plan for the tax cut?  Where is the 4% growth for 10 years?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 15, 2019, 11:18:58 AM
That is including the State and property tax reduction.  The whole ball of wax, and I got a bigger refund and my effective rate was lower. The numbers don't lie...TAX CUT!!

Maybe for you. But the middle class got screwed. They really did. It’s a shame. This is why the GOP is out of touch.

Reality is this did not happen...more fake news that was pounded into their heads non-stop just like "Russia, Russia, Russia" that turns out to be untrue.  Don't think the public does not notice this pattern. Reality eventually Trumps perception, this will be no different.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 15, 2019, 11:26:36 AM
I'm confused.

I guess I should try to figure this out, we hit the SALT limit (as would about anyone who pays excess of 10k property tax in Irvine).

Our AGI is about 10% higher than 2017, but our taxable income is 33% higher than 2018 (no dependent exemptions and about 20% less itemized deductions).

But our taxes is only 10% higher (I guess the child credit and no AMT helped?).

So I guess it's a wash for us? Maybe I should start a new return in the 2017 software and see where that falls to get a better idea of the differences.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: woodburyowner on April 15, 2019, 11:33:45 AM
I'm confused.

I guess I should try to figure this out, we hit the SALT limit (as would about anyone who pays excess of 10k property tax in Irvine).

Our AGI is about 10% higher than 2017, but our taxable income is 33% higher than 2018 (no dependent exemptions and about 20% less itemized deductions).

But our taxes is only 10% higher (I guess the child credit and no AMT helped?).

So I guess it's a wash for us? Maybe I should start a new return in the 2017 software and see where that falls to get a better idea of the differences.

Why not just look at your effective tax rate difference between 2017 and 2018?  For 2018, Line 15 divided by Line 7.  For 2017, Line 63 divided by Line 22. 
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 15, 2019, 11:47:51 AM
Why not just look at your effective tax rate difference between 2017 and 2018?  For 2018, Line 15 divided by Line 7.  For 2017, Line 63 divided by Line 22. 

Thanks. I was more talking about the differences in the bracket, deductions, exemptions, credits, AMT etc.

Using tax divided by income, for 2017 I get 11.1% and for 2018 I get... 11.2%.

Man... Trump got me for .1% higher taxes. :)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 15, 2019, 12:09:39 PM
That is including the State and property tax reduction.  The whole ball of wax, and I got a bigger refund and my effective rate was lower. The numbers don't lie...TAX CUT!!

Maybe for you. But the middle class got screwed. They really did. It’s a shame. This is why the GOP is out of touch.

Reality is this did not happen...more fake news that was pounded into their heads non-stop just like "Russia, Russia, Russia" that turns out to be untrue.  Don't think the public does not notice this pattern. Reality eventually Trumps perception, this will be no different.


Vox article: Trump’s fake tax cuts are dead
The midterms are over, and so are Republicans’ phantom middle-class tax cuts.

Trump raised eyebrows in October when he suddenly began to talk about a 10 percent tax cut for the middle class that would be passed ahead of the midterms. He told reporters in Nevada that he was working on a “very major tax cut for middle-income people” and that the White House and congressional leaders were “studying very deeply, round the clock” on something to be announced very soon — certainly ahead of the elections.

No one seemed to have any idea what he was talking about: There was no discernible plan in the works, and his aides reportedly had no idea what was going on. Congress wasn’t even in session. (When a reporter pointed it out to Trump, he said the vote would be after the election, but the proposal would be released beforehand.)

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/15/18097418/trump-middle-class-tax-cuts-larry-kudlow

campaigning additional tax cuts, but the bill was not even brought up
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 15, 2019, 12:14:33 PM
Let’s face it we were targeted when he limited the Salt deductions. Our hands were tied do to the GOP passing the tax bill. Then the midterms happened!

Throw in the tarriffs that effect American companies and consumers.

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 15, 2019, 01:04:57 PM
Why not just look at your effective tax rate difference between 2017 and 2018?  For 2018, Line 15 divided by Line 7.  For 2017, Line 63 divided by Line 22. 

Thanks. I was more talking about the differences in the bracket, deductions, exemptions, credits, AMT etc.

Using tax divided by income, for 2017 I get 11.1% and for 2018 I get... 11.2%.

Man... Trump got me for .1% higher taxes. :)

0.1% increase when your agi increased 10%?  sounds like a win to me  :)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 15, 2019, 01:19:13 PM
Why not just look at your effective tax rate difference between 2017 and 2018?  For 2018, Line 15 divided by Line 7.  For 2017, Line 63 divided by Line 22. 

Thanks. I was more talking about the differences in the bracket, deductions, exemptions, credits, AMT etc.

Using tax divided by income, for 2017 I get 11.1% and for 2018 I get... 11.2%.

Man... Trump got me for .1% higher taxes. :)

0.1% increase when your agi increased 10%?  sounds like a win to me  :)

Why would that be a win..it's literally the same unless they went up a bracket

They didn't pay the same amount...they paid the same effective rate.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 15, 2019, 01:39:34 PM
BTW:  Political failure for Trump and GOP. 

Quote
Only 18 percent of respondents say they are paying less in federal taxes for 2018 compared to 2017 in the survey, which was taken ahead of the April 15 tax deadline.

A majority said their 2018 tax bill was about the same or higher compared to 2017. Thirty-two percent said their federal taxes were higher under the Trump tax law. A plurality of respondents, 36 percent, said they owed about the same in federal taxes compared to the previous year. Fourteen percent said they were not sure whether they paid more or less.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/438956-only-18-percent-of-americans-say-theyre-paying-less-in-taxes
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 15, 2019, 01:39:38 PM
Why not just look at your effective tax rate difference between 2017 and 2018?  For 2018, Line 15 divided by Line 7.  For 2017, Line 63 divided by Line 22. 

Thanks. I was more talking about the differences in the bracket, deductions, exemptions, credits, AMT etc.

Using tax divided by income, for 2017 I get 11.1% and for 2018 I get... 11.2%.

Man... Trump got me for .1% higher taxes. :)

0.1% increase when your agi increased 10%?  sounds like a win to me  :)

Why would that be a win..it's literally the same unless they went up a bracket

They didn't pay the same amount...they paid the same effective rate.

if my agi last year is $150k and my effective tax rate is 10%, and the next year i make $165k (10% more), and my effective tax rate is still 10%, then that's a win because without the trump tax plan your effective rate would increase because a larger percentage of your income is going to be taxed at the marginal rate from that bracket.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 15, 2019, 01:58:40 PM
Tax foundation article: Which States Rely the Most on Federal Aid?

The map below shows the extent to which federal aid comprised each state’s total general revenue in FY 2016 (the most recent year of data available). That year, the states where federal aid comprised the largest share of general revenue were Mississippi (43.4 percent), Louisiana (42.7 percent), New Mexico (41.2 percent), Arizona (41.2 percent), and Kentucky (40.9 percent). The states for which federal aid comprised the smallest share of state general revenue were Virginia (21.1 percent), Hawaii (22.7 percent), Kansas (23.0 percent), North Dakota (23.8 percent), and Utah (25.7 percent).

https://taxfoundation.org/federal-aid-reliance-rankings/

My comment: Note this is a 2019 article fr the tax foundation that analysis FY2016 data. Look at the states that rely on federal aid.

So I was right. The cards are stacked against us. We pay more and we don’t receive aid like other states! We were singled out to pay for other states benefits!!!!!!
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 15, 2019, 02:06:33 PM
So I was right. The cards are stacked against us. We pay more and we don’t receive aid like other states! We were singled out to pay for other states benefits!!!!!!

welcome to being a conservative
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 15, 2019, 02:09:38 PM
Why not just look at your effective tax rate difference between 2017 and 2018?  For 2018, Line 15 divided by Line 7.  For 2017, Line 63 divided by Line 22. 

Thanks. I was more talking about the differences in the bracket, deductions, exemptions, credits, AMT etc.

Using tax divided by income, for 2017 I get 11.1% and for 2018 I get... 11.2%.

Man... Trump got me for .1% higher taxes. :)

0.1% increase when your agi increased 10%?  sounds like a win to me  :)

Why would that be a win..it's literally the same unless they went up a bracket

They didn't pay the same amount...they paid the same effective rate.

if my agi last year is $150k and my effective tax rate is 10%, and the next year i make $165k (10% more), and my effective tax rate is still 10%, then that's a win because without the trump tax plan your effective rate would increase because a larger percentage of your income is going to be taxed at the marginal rate from that bracket.

It depends on the bracket margins. Assume I stayed within the same bracket, it's a push right?

That's why I wanted to know the particulars.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 15, 2019, 02:17:21 PM
So I was right. The cards are stacked against us. We pay more and we don’t receive aid like other states! We were singled out to pay for other states benefits!!!!!!

welcome to being a conservative

California and New York is like funding the US. But we got deeply shafted with the SALT reduction.

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 15, 2019, 02:23:23 PM
Isn't the dependents exemption removal worse than the SALT reduction if you have kids? The child credit doesn't even make up for that.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 15, 2019, 02:25:21 PM
So I was right. The cards are stacked against us. We pay more and we don’t receive aid like other states! We were singled out to pay for other states benefits!!!!!!

welcome to being a conservative

LOL...Conservatives are basically all the rich people and business leaders for the previous 50 years.  How do you think we go this level income disparity and automation? 

Love conservatives that tries to pretend that they are victims.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 15, 2019, 02:43:41 PM
Why not just look at your effective tax rate difference between 2017 and 2018?  For 2018, Line 15 divided by Line 7.  For 2017, Line 63 divided by Line 22. 

Thanks. I was more talking about the differences in the bracket, deductions, exemptions, credits, AMT etc.

Using tax divided by income, for 2017 I get 11.1% and for 2018 I get... 11.2%.

Man... Trump got me for .1% higher taxes. :)

0.1% increase when your agi increased 10%?  sounds like a win to me  :)

Why would that be a win..it's literally the same unless they went up a bracket

They didn't pay the same amount...they paid the same effective rate.

if my agi last year is $150k and my effective tax rate is 10%, and the next year i make $165k (10% more), and my effective tax rate is still 10%, then that's a win because without the trump tax plan your effective rate would increase because a larger percentage of your income is going to be taxed at the marginal rate from that bracket.

It depends on the bracket margins. Assume I stayed within the same bracket, it's a push right?

That's why I wanted to know the particulars.

let's assume married, filing jointly with the same 2017 $150k -> 2018 $165k agi. 

before the trump tax plan, you're in the 25% bracket over $75,900 agi.  in 2018, you're paying 22% for over $77,400.  if your agi was $150k again this year you'd have a tax cut - easy math there.

but to explain my point - let's use your example with round numbers in terms of tax rates.  at $150k, 10% effective tax rate is $15k in taxes last year.  at $165k, 10% effective tax rate is $16.5k, which is a $1.5k difference.  except if you made $165k and the tax code didn't change with trump, you would have paid 25% on that extra $15k in agi, or $3,750.  that's oversimplifying it, but if your agi is increasing, all other things equal, your effective tax rate will be increasing due to the tax brackets increasing as well.  so paying the same effective tax rate with an increasing agi is a good thing.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 15, 2019, 02:46:46 PM
So I was right. The cards are stacked against us. We pay more and we don’t receive aid like other states! We were singled out to pay for other states benefits!!!!!!

welcome to being a conservative

LOL...Conservatives are basically all the rich people and business leaders for the previous 50 years.  How do you think we go this level income disparity and automation? 

Love conservatives that tries to pretend that they are victims.
hey eyephone is not a victim, he's just pointing out how unfair it is for us rich californians to subsidize all those stupid flyover states that nobody cares about
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 15, 2019, 02:48:07 PM
So I was right. The cards are stacked against us. We pay more and we don’t receive aid like other states! We were singled out to pay for other states benefits!!!!!!

welcome to being a conservative

LOL...Conservatives are basically all the rich people and business leaders for the previous 50 years.  How do you think we go this level income disparity and automation? 

Love conservatives that tries to pretend that they are victims.
hey eyephone is not a victim, he's just pointing out how unfair it is for us rich californians to subsidize all those stupid flyover states that nobody cares about

Except he is pointing out that California and NY are subsidizing the rest of the country and got shafted in the new tax deal...which are actual statements of fact.

Whereas conservatives claiming that they have been on the wrong end of the stick considering what has happened in the last 50-60 years is just hilarious.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 15, 2019, 03:28:07 PM
So I was right. The cards are stacked against us. We pay more and we don’t receive aid like other states! We were singled out to pay for other states benefits!!!!!!

welcome to being a conservative

LOL...Conservatives are basically all the rich people and business leaders for the previous 50 years.  How do you think we go this level income disparity and automation? 

Love conservatives that tries to pretend that they are victims.
hey eyephone is not a victim, he's just pointing out how unfair it is for us rich californians to subsidize all those stupid flyover states that nobody cares about

Except he is pointing out that California and NY are subsidizing the rest of the country and got shafted in the new tax deal...which are actual statements of fact.

Whereas conservatives claiming that they have been on the wrong end of the stick considering what has happened in the last 50-60 years is just hilarious.

you yourself just said you paid the same amount of taxes and others on this board have said they got tax cuts....if that's being shafted, give me the whole 9 yards baby
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: qwerty on April 15, 2019, 04:17:46 PM
if I would have applied the 2017 effective federal tax rate to my 2018 income I would have paid 27k more than I did for 2018.

God bless Donald trump!!  :-)

Don’t agree with everything he does or says but I’ll take the 27k in savings!
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Mety on April 15, 2019, 04:45:26 PM
Man, seems like most people are benefiting from this new tax plan. I thought I was going to get hit, but surprisingly benefiting more also. Maybe I should have bought a bigger house.  ;D
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 15, 2019, 06:31:47 PM
Man, seems like most people are benefiting from this new tax plan. I thought I was going to get hit, but surprisingly benefiting more also. Maybe I should have bought a bigger house.  ;D

There’s no tax incentive to buy a bigger house like before.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: fortune11 on April 15, 2019, 06:32:27 PM
As IC said , perception is KEY . This tax plans after the refunds etc have been posted , still doesn’t poll well.

By next year, it will be old news and won’t matter for 2020

Another prediction - people believe corporate tax cut is here to stay . They maybe in for a surprise depending on 2020 results
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 15, 2019, 06:40:01 PM
almost as if you're being brainwashed to believe the tax cuts really didn't help you...hmmmmm who could have a vested interest in that alternate reality?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kenkoko on April 16, 2019, 03:14:26 AM
I've got to hand it to Trump. He has everyone so distracted arguing over the insignificant amount of tax cut (or non-tax cut for some) that nobody is noticing the sleight of hand magic our mega companies are pulling off.

Under Trump's tax cut, 60 Fortune 500 companies avoided paying all federal income tax in 2018 (with their total average effective tax rate being roughly -5%)

Overall, In 2018, corporations paid just 7% of their profits as federal taxes.

Keep arguing over the measly amount you saved or didn't save. It's really meaningless since we are all getting robbed.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/companies-paying-zero-taxes-trump-law-155944124.html
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 16, 2019, 09:20:05 AM
Man, seems like most people are benefiting from this new tax plan. I thought I was going to get hit, but surprisingly benefiting more also. Maybe I should have bought a bigger house.  ;D

There’s no tax incentive to buy a bigger house like before.

Mety buy a bigger house and then let us know if there is additional tax savings. Also, send your kids to online elementary school. Then let us know your feedback. (re: your comment replacing regular teachers with online teachers)
Jk
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 09:48:25 AM
almost as if you're being brainwashed to believe the tax cuts really didn't help you...hmmmmm who could have a vested interest in that alternate reality?

Tax cuts always benefits some over the mass.  The question both economically and political is what has the tax cut done for the US economy? 

Where is the projected 3 to 4% growth for the next ten years that was going to pay for the tax cut and spurn the US into the next level of growth?

This is why I despise GOP economical model...just say what it is, more money for rich people at the expense of the 90%.  Don't give me trickle-down economics or unrealistic growth model...just go with "HEY IT'S GOOD FOR ME"
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 16, 2019, 10:19:11 AM
almost as if you're being brainwashed to believe the tax cuts really didn't help you...hmmmmm who could have a vested interest in that alternate reality?

Tax cuts always benefits some over the mass.  The question both economically and political is what has the tax cut done for the US economy? 

Where is the projected 3 to 4% growth for the next ten years that was going to pay for the tax cut and spurn the US into the next level of growth?

This is why I despise GOP economical model...just say what it is, more money for rich people at the expense of the 90%.  Don't give me trickle-down economics or unrealistic growth model...just go with "HEY IT'S GOOD FOR ME"

keep trump in office for the next 10 years and you'll see sustained 3-4% growth  :)

and 50% of the country doesn't even pay federal taxes, so not sure how it could be at their expense
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 10:23:32 AM
almost as if you're being brainwashed to believe the tax cuts really didn't help you...hmmmmm who could have a vested interest in that alternate reality?

Tax cuts always benefits some over the mass.  The question both economically and political is what has the tax cut done for the US economy? 

Where is the projected 3 to 4% growth for the next ten years that was going to pay for the tax cut and spurn the US into the next level of growth?

This is why I despise GOP economical model...just say what it is, more money for rich people at the expense of the 90%.  Don't give me trickle-down economics or unrealistic growth model...just go with "HEY IT'S GOOD FOR ME"

keep trump in office for the next 10 years and you'll see sustained 3-4% growth  :)

and 50% of the country doesn't even pay federal taxes, so not sure how it could be at their expense

Really?  Cause the tax cut was to have maximum effect in year 1 and 2018 had 2.9%...projection is about 2% this year...1.5% next year. 

Seriously...just go with "HEY I GOT MORE MONEY" slogan.  It's at least honest.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 16, 2019, 10:38:05 AM
almost as if you're being brainwashed to believe the tax cuts really didn't help you...hmmmmm who could have a vested interest in that alternate reality?

Tax cuts always benefits some over the mass.  The question both economically and political is what has the tax cut done for the US economy? 

Where is the projected 3 to 4% growth for the next ten years that was going to pay for the tax cut and spurn the US into the next level of growth?

This is why I despise GOP economical model...just say what it is, more money for rich people at the expense of the 90%.  Don't give me trickle-down economics or unrealistic growth model...just go with "HEY IT'S GOOD FOR ME"

keep trump in office for the next 10 years and you'll see sustained 3-4% growth  :)

and 50% of the country doesn't even pay federal taxes, so not sure how it could be at their expense

Really?  Cause the tax cut was to have maximum effect in year 1 and 2018 had 2.9%...projection is about 2% this year...1.5% next year. 

Seriously...just go with "HEY I GOT MORE MONEY" slogan.  It's at least honest.

He’s like Morekas. Ignores the republicans in the Midwest and South. (the majority of the GOP base)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 16, 2019, 10:41:35 AM
almost as if you're being brainwashed to believe the tax cuts really didn't help you...hmmmmm who could have a vested interest in that alternate reality?

Tax cuts always benefits some over the mass.  The question both economically and political is what has the tax cut done for the US economy? 

Where is the projected 3 to 4% growth for the next ten years that was going to pay for the tax cut and spurn the US into the next level of growth?

This is why I despise GOP economical model...just say what it is, more money for rich people at the expense of the 90%.  Don't give me trickle-down economics or unrealistic growth model...just go with "HEY IT'S GOOD FOR ME"

Puleeeze!! The small guy and the guy in the middle benefited greatly...

More than 44% of Americans pay no federal income tax

Approximately 76.4 million or 44.4% of Americans won’t pay any federal income tax in 2018, up from 72.6 million people or 43.2% in 2016 before President Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, according to estimates from the Tax Policy Center, a nonprofit joint venture by the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution, which are both Washington, D.C.-based think tanks. That’s below the 50% peak during the Great Recession. They still obviously pay sales tax, property taxes and other taxes.

“The large percentage of people who don’t owe federal income tax is a feature, not a bug, of the revenue code,” according to the Tax Policy Center. “By design, the federal income tax always has excluded a significant fraction of households through a combination of personal exemptions, the standard deduction, zero bracket amounts, and more recently, tax credits.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/81-million-americans-wont-pay-any-federal-income-taxes-this-year-heres-why-2018-04-16 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/81-million-americans-wont-pay-any-federal-income-taxes-this-year-heres-why-2018-04-16)

New Poll: Vast Majority of Accountants Say Tax Cuts Have Helped Small Businesses
Tax Day should call attention to the savings experienced by small businesses as a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

According to the national survey of 102 Certified Public Accountants—representing over 5,500 small business pass through clients across the U.S.—conducted by Research Strategy Group International, nearly 80 percent of respondents believe that the implementation of the tax cuts legislation has helped America’s small businesses. Moreover, almost as many also felt that the TCJA helped stimulate the economy (76%).

https://www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com/press_releases/new-poll-vast-majority-of-accountants-say-tax-cuts-have-helped-small-businesses/ (https://www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com/press_releases/new-poll-vast-majority-of-accountants-say-tax-cuts-have-helped-small-businesses/)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: OCtoSV on April 16, 2019, 10:52:18 AM
Wow - in 2017 I was in 33% bracket with 27.7% effective rate. In 2018 my AGI went up 50% due to good things happening, pushing me to the 37% bracket, but effective tax rate is 27.9%
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Mety on April 16, 2019, 11:04:01 AM
Man, seems like most people are benefiting from this new tax plan. I thought I was going to get hit, but surprisingly benefiting more also. Maybe I should have bought a bigger house.  ;D

There’s no tax incentive to buy a bigger house like before.

Mety buy a bigger house and then let us know if there is additional tax savings. Also, send your kids to online elementary school. Then let us know your feedback. (re: your comment replacing regular teachers with online teachers)
Jk

I wish I could buy a bigger house lol.
I was joking on teachers working from home, but you never know, things going crazy as is will show us more so in a future.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Mety on April 16, 2019, 11:05:51 AM
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 16, 2019, 11:08:33 AM
Really still think its minimal or just anecdotal?

9 Apocalyptic Lies Fed To Americans About The Republican Tax Bill

https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/15/9-apocalyptic-lies-fed-to-americans-about-the-republican-tax-bill/ (https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/15/9-apocalyptic-lies-fed-to-americans-about-the-republican-tax-bill/)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 16, 2019, 11:10:50 AM
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Mety on April 16, 2019, 11:22:01 AM
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.

It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I’m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 16, 2019, 11:33:35 AM
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.

It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I’m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.

Read the article from the NY Fed. Don’t be foolish and rely on TI responses. (You should know better.)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 16, 2019, 11:34:42 AM
My other new point don’t let an agent tell you the big tax benefit of buying a house.

I remember an agent told me it only cost $100 to fix the ac. When the ac unit won’t even turn on. We all know that’s not true unless you buy the part and do it yourself. That’s even stretching to say the part cost would be $100. We actually replaced an AC unit at below market price of course. The cost was more than $100 that I can tell you. (Btw: the ac guy we knew retired or else I would share the contact info)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 11:50:24 AM
Really still think its minimal or just anecdotal?

9 Apocalyptic Lies Fed To Americans About The Republican Tax Bill

https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/15/9-apocalyptic-lies-fed-to-americans-about-the-republican-tax-bill/ (https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/15/9-apocalyptic-lies-fed-to-americans-about-the-republican-tax-bill/)

What effects for the economy?  I mean we are blowing up the federal deficit but no one cares about that during a GOP presidency.

Basically...what I have gotten from the GOP was that "we cut taxes for rich people and the economy didn't tank"...I guess that's the standard now.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 16, 2019, 12:08:20 PM
Well which gauge do you want to judge growth? GDP? up, Wages? up, Capital formation? up job creation? up corporate earnings? up, unemployment? down, housing? up, manufacturing? up,  Capex? up.  personal wealth? up. We can argue the minutiae of magnitudes but there is little that shows weakness.

https://youtu.be/MMzd40i8TfA

https://youtu.be/MMzd40i8TfA (https://youtu.be/MMzd40i8TfA)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 12:19:30 PM
Well which gauge do you want to judge growth? GDP? up, Wages? up, Capital formation? up job creation? up corporate earnings? up, unemployment? down, housing? up, manufacturing? up,  Capex? up.  personal wealth? up. We can argue the minutiae of magnitudes but there is little that shows weakness.

There are a ton of warning signs...question is what the tax cut did to help the economy?  All those factor were already on the plus side prior to the tax cut.

Bottom line number:  2.9% GDP in 2018...about 2% projection in 2019...about 1.5% projection in 2020...what did the tax cut do?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 16, 2019, 12:32:18 PM
More "if true..thens"....those lines have not worked out as of late.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: nosuchreality on April 16, 2019, 12:34:16 PM
Well which gauge do you want to judge growth? GDP? up, Wages? up, Capital formation? up job creation? up corporate earnings? up, unemployment? down, housing? up, manufacturing? up,  Capex? up.  personal wealth? up. We can argue the minutiae of magnitudes but there is little that shows weakness.

There are a ton of warning signs...question is what the tax cut did to help the economy?  All those factor were already on the plus side prior to the tax cut.

Bottom line number:  2.9% GDP in 2018...about 2% projection in 2019...about 1.5% projection in 2020...what did the tax cut do?

The tax cuts did the same thing the government always does which is the same thing most addicts do when their buzz is wearing off and they don't have any product.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 16, 2019, 12:46:21 PM
No one is arguing that the business cycle has been repealed but you cant give an inch to any causal argument linking tax cuts with growth because it would give Trump some positive credit. It all has to be an amazing coincidence or hapless bumbling, huh?  Oh, a recession will come, thats a fact, but velocity of the growth phase was pushed along by this tax plan, like it or not.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 12:49:04 PM
More "if true..thens"....those lines have not worked out as of late.

2.9% GDP in 2018 was a real thing. 

2014:  2.5
2015:  2.9
2016:  1.6
2017:  2.3
2018:  2.9

Are you predicting GDP growth in 2019 to be better than 2.9%?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 16, 2019, 12:50:09 PM
Wouldn't surprise me. The same way I wasn't surprised when this didn't happen...

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
 By PAUL KRUGMAN

COMMENT
2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:0012:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 12:57:49 PM
No one is arguing that the business cycle has been repealed but you cant give an inch to any causal argument linking tax cuts with growth because it would give Trump some positive credit. It all has to be an amazing coincidence or hapless bumbling, huh?  Oh, a recession will come, thats a fact, but velocity of the growth phase was pushed along by this tax plan, like it or not.

Again...no one is disputing that tax cuts spurs some level of growth.   The contention is whether it's a temporary sugar high or a sustainable long term economic strategy.  Most experts agree that the effects of the tax cut is most felt in the first year of the cut...which is basically 2018.  Trump and his advisors stated that the tax cuts will usher in 3-4% growth in the next 10 years...we have not even hit that in year 1. 

I mean...the man was predicting 4 to 6% growth:

Quote
"So we're at 3.3 percent GDP. I see no reason why we don't go to 4 percent, 5 percent, and even 6 percent."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/trump-defies-data-with-6-percent-gdp-growth-forecast.html

Quote
Trump’s fiscal plan forecasts the economy will grow by 3.2 percent this year (after adjusting for inflation), at least 3 percent annually through 2024, and by about 2.8 percent from 2026 through 2029. By contrast, CBO projects real economic growth of about 2.7 percent this year, falling to 1.9 percent in 2020, then ranging from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent through the next eight years. On average, CBO projects the economy will grow about a full percentage point more slowly over the next decade.

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/tale-two-economies-comparing-trumps-economic-forecast-cbos

And you understand that cutting taxes during a time of economic growth is also dumb because the effects will be next to nothing...companies were already hoarding a ton of cash and unemployment already super low.

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 12:58:34 PM
Wouldn't surprise me. The same way I wasn't surprised when this didn't happen...

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
 By PAUL KRUGMAN

COMMENT
2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:0012:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout)

So...3% growth for the next 9 years?  And it doesn't happen and the predictions are accurate...would that be Trump's fault or someone's fault.

Oh how about the deficit?  I guess that's not a thing anymore.

Quote
But Washington’s accounts have run $319 billion into the red since the fiscal year began in October, compared to a $225 billion deficit over the same period a year earlier.

Corporate taxes collected for the October-December period have fallen 17 percent from a year earlier, while taxes collected from individuals have fallen about 4 percent.

The fiscal deterioration began well before the tax cuts, however. The 12-month sum of fiscal deficits has been on a widening trend since early 2016. Washington collected nearly $900 billion less than it spent in the 2018 calendar year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/us-posts-14-billion-budget-deficit-after-trump-tax-cuts.html
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 16, 2019, 01:02:07 PM
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.

It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I’m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.

Read the article from the NY Fed. Don’t be foolish and rely on TI responses. (You should know better.)

Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 16, 2019, 01:04:10 PM
Didn't say that, but this year wouldn't surprise me. So you stipulate that the cuts had a near term effect?.  I do think it will last until the next recession, which as I said, will happen, eventually.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 01:04:36 PM
Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Like I said...just stop with the "good for the economy" spin...just go with "Who care...rich people pay less taxes"
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 16, 2019, 01:08:06 PM
Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Like I said...just stop with the "good for the economy" spin...just go with "Who care...rich people pay less taxes"

rich people pay most of the taxes in this country anyway....surprise surprise, tax cut also affects them the most!
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 01:09:58 PM
Didn't say that, but this year wouldn't surprise me. So you stipulate that the cuts had a near term effect?.  I do think it will last until the next recession, which as I said, will happen, eventually.

Everyone stipulated to that but tax cuts are not suppose to be the driver of economic growth...they are supposed to be the match that lights the powder keg.  Except...there was barely a fizzle.

Conversely we have a dramatic increase in deficit, which will need to be pay for going forward and hurt the economy even more when the rescission eventually comes. 

Oh...we haven't even talked about the tariffs imposed by Trump...again to little short term gain and likely to result in long term harm.

Seriously...the Laffer Curve is myth.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 01:11:13 PM
Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Like I said...just stop with the "good for the economy" spin...just go with "Who care...rich people pay less taxes"

rich people pay most of the taxes in this country anyway....surprise surprise, tax cut also affects them the most!

Actually, this tax cut was mostly about corporation...where is the effect? 

Again...like the libertarian...just stop pretending that GOP cares about the bigger picture.  Just go with "Help rich people and corporation make more money" slogan.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 16, 2019, 01:14:00 PM
All sorts of good stuff here...the most obvious one to me is: 

(https://www.pgpf.org/sites/default/files/Corporate-tax-revenues-dropped-by-31-percent-in-2018.jpg)

https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2018/12/9-charts-that-show-how-our-fiscal-outlook-has-gone-from-bad-to-worse

BTW, we already ran this experiment in Kansas...didn't work there either:

https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/kansas-provides-compelling-evidence-of-failure-of-supply-side-tax-cuts
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: fortune11 on April 16, 2019, 07:26:38 PM
Didn't say that, but this year wouldn't surprise me. So you stipulate that the cuts had a near term effect?.  I do think it will last until the next recession, which as I said, will happen, eventually.

This makes zero sense

Explain or get get vanquished with facts yet again :)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Mety on April 16, 2019, 08:42:49 PM
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.

It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I’m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.

Read the article from the NY Fed. Don’t be foolish and rely on TI responses. (You should know better.)

Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Thanks for the articles. While it may benefit me for now I guess it could possibly play the role in upcoming recession or any economic damage on the way. But like I said before, I’m not really too familiar with economy or political stuff. You guys seem to be on top of it always, but two opinions (Trump fans vs. Anti-Trump) can’t seem to agree forever lol.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 16, 2019, 09:58:36 PM
Didn't say that, but this year wouldn't surprise me. So you stipulate that the cuts had a near term effect?.  I do think it will last until the next recession, which as I said, will happen, eventually.

This makes zero sense

Explain or get get vanquished with facts yet again :)

Was answering something irc said. This is getting off topic. See me back at the Dow thread where we left you 6% ago.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: fortune11 on April 17, 2019, 04:44:58 AM
Didn't say that, but this year wouldn't surprise me. So you stipulate that the cuts had a near term effect?.  I do think it will last until the next recession, which as I said, will happen, eventually.

This makes zero sense

Explain or get get vanquished with facts yet again :)

Was answering something irc said. This is getting off topic. See me back at the Dow thread where we left you 6% ago.

I am still amazed anyone lets a hack like you manage their money :)   

Do you even understand what the words  “risk management” mean ? 

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 17, 2019, 06:45:47 AM
Always fall back on name calling, typical for your generation. ;)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: fortune11 on April 17, 2019, 08:12:17 AM
Always fall back on name calling, typical for your generation. ;)

How do you know I am not some fox watching geezer just having fun here at your expense :)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 17, 2019, 08:17:28 AM
How do you know I'm not some LGBTQXYZ, Maddowite trolling you for fun?  That's kindda my point, no one knows anything about anybody on the net. Maybe we should meet back at the Snowflake thread, not the Dow one.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 08:31:25 AM
I like to note for the record that despite repeated requests to have fact-based discussions regarding the economic effects of tax cuts, the conservatives here have stuck with either 1) "it's okay because rich people and corporation got more money" and 2) "anything can happen".
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 17, 2019, 08:33:09 AM
Noted
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 08:35:06 AM
Noted

Great...so I am just going to ignore any efforts by conservatives here of having any level of actual policy/evidence based discussions.

As I stated, just go with the "I don't care, I got more money" slogan.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: fortune11 on April 17, 2019, 08:44:34 AM
Noted

Great...so I am just going to ignore any efforts by conservatives here of having any level of actual policy/evidence based discussions.

As I stated, just go with the "I don't care, I got more money" slogan.

Once again , IC nails it ...
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 17, 2019, 08:58:09 AM
Noted

Great...so I am just going to ignore any efforts by conservatives here of having any level of actual policy/evidence based discussions.

As I stated, just go with the "I don't care, I got more money" slogan.

You've seen it all right here, not just the anecdotal proof of your own fellow posters but even the NYTimes who admits the tax cuts were real.  Over analysis causes paralysis. Don't let a blind hate for Trump get in the way of actual dollar benefits you and I have realized.  Enjoy it, be grateful.  Now, how you react in the future is up to you but this cut is a win.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 09:06:42 AM
Noted

Great...so I am just going to ignore any efforts by conservatives here of having any level of actual policy/evidence based discussions.

As I stated, just go with the "I don't care, I got more money" slogan.

You've seen it all right here, not just the anecdotal proof of your own fellow posters but even the NYTimes who admits the tax cuts were real.  Over analysis causes paralysis. Don't let a blind hate for Trump get in the way of actual dollar benefits you and I have realized.  Enjoy it, be grateful.  Now, how you react in the future is up to you but this cut is a win.

Again...facts and evidence...talking points are irrelevant.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 17, 2019, 09:08:57 AM
Noted

Great...so I am just going to ignore any efforts by conservatives here of having any level of actual policy/evidence based discussions.

As I stated, just go with the "I don't care, I got more money" slogan.

Is he taking the job seriously or is this fun and games?

Don’t forget about Marillyn Lockheed (Marillyn Hewsen CEO Lockheed Martin) and Tim Apple (Tim Cook CEO of Apple) ;) [Keep in mind he was just introducing them on separate occasions/different event. But it sounds like an attack. Lol]
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: fortune11 on April 17, 2019, 09:30:23 AM
I will give you the exact benefit of tax cuts to corporate earnings and where the money was spent (relative to years prior)

Chest thumping conservatives want to take a guess first  ?

Remember prior beatdowns on the trade deals , bond bubbles, etc so take your time and google thoroughly before you respond this time  :)

That is , if facts matter to you  ...
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 09:45:20 AM
I will give you the exact benefit of tax cuts to corporate earnings and where the money was spent (relative to years prior)

Chest thumping conservatives want to take a guess first  ?

Remember prior beatdowns on the trade deals , bond bubbles, etc so take your time and google thoroughly before you respond this time  :)

That is , if facts matter to you  ...

Well...everything will be solved by that 6% GDP growth...maybe GOP should take a page out of China's playbook and just make up their own GDP numbers.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 17, 2019, 10:29:14 AM
Why is everything always in such extreme definitives?  Always 100 miles an hour or a dead stop? What about just decent growth...we will be fine.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 10:32:40 AM
Why is everything always in such extreme definitives?  Always 100 miles an hour or a dead stop? What about just decent growth...we will be fine.

Again...facts, evidence, and logic.  Talking points are pointless.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: fortune11 on April 17, 2019, 10:50:10 AM
My point , as with many posts where I have repeated myself 10 times to drill this point home —

Is that our economic supertanker moves via forces that are much much bigger than a political party or magical gimmicks like one time tax cuts

Demographics
Productivity — v v IMP l
Labor force participation

Ever wonder why GDP was booming when “boomers” were entering the workforce ? Because at the same time women were also entering the workforce in large numbers boosting aggregate demand . Didn’t matter we had high taxes at the time .

Do tax cuts spur the creation of new companies like apple or google ? Or do they just stuff more money in the pockets of old fossils who fund GOP ...  you know the answer .

That doesn’t mean you cannot make money during these mini cycles of boom and bust . Key is not to get too excited by recent events or political affiliations
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 11:00:46 AM
My point , as with many posts where I have repeated myself 10 times to drill this point home —

Is that our economic supertanker moves via forces that are much much bigger than a political party or magical gimmicks like one time tax cuts

Demographics
Productivity — v v IMP l
Labor force participation

Ever wonder why GDP was booming when “boomers” were entering the workforce ? Because at the same time women were also entering the workforce in large numbers boosting aggregate demand . Didn’t matter we had high taxes at the time .

Do tax cuts spur the creation of new companies like apple or google ? Or do they just stuff more money in the pockets of old fossils who fund GOP ...  you know the answer .

That doesn’t mean you cannot make money during these mini cycles of boom and bust . Key is not to get too excited by recent events or political affiliations

TBF...GDP is seriously flawed measuring the 21st century economy, when so much of productivity is not centralized and automation/AI is growing.   It's really misleading when it is held up as this ultimate report of the economy.

A more holistic view of the economy is needed:  (more Andrew Yang plug)

https://www.yang2020.com/policies/measuring-the-economy/

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 17, 2019, 11:18:33 AM
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.

It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I’m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.

Read the article from the NY Fed. Don’t be foolish and rely on TI responses. (You should know better.)

Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Thanks for the articles. While it may benefit me for now I guess it could possibly play the role in upcoming recession or any economic damage on the way. But like I said before, I’m not really too familiar with economy or political stuff. You guys seem to be on top of it always, but two opinions (Trump fans vs. Anti-Trump) can’t seem to agree forever lol.

You say you are not familiar with the economy and politics. But I have to say in a way you are. You recognized the slowing in housing.
 
I like to leave you with you with a quote.
“If you sleep, you will miss the opportunity to be successful.”
E. Thomas

You have to be current with today news. (For example price of oil, tarriffs, Interest rates, etc..)

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Mety on April 17, 2019, 02:15:16 PM
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.

It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I’m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.

Read the article from the NY Fed. Don’t be foolish and rely on TI responses. (You should know better.)

Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Thanks for the articles. While it may benefit me for now I guess it could possibly play the role in upcoming recession or any economic damage on the way. But like I said before, I’m not really too familiar with economy or political stuff. You guys seem to be on top of it always, but two opinions (Trump fans vs. Anti-Trump) can’t seem to agree forever lol.

You say you are not familiar with the economy and politics. But I have to say in a way you are. You recognized the slowing in housing.
 
I like to leave you with you with a quote.
“If you sleep, you will miss the opportunity to be successful.”
E. Thomas

You have to be current with today news. (For example price of oil, tarriffs, Interest rates, etc..)

Haha. I can't keep up with everything. I guess you guys (especially eyephone, fortune11, Irvinecommuter) have so much more capacity to study and observe than what I can do.

Besides my career field (which is not economy or politics) I mostly have interests on God and housing. Although I would like it to be just God (no, I'm not a pastor either), housing is needed for our family and to serve others also so I tend to study a lot on areas and markets, etc, to provide what's best for our family and friends. Thanks to people like you and YF for you guys provide much good information and things people usually miss on housing markets.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 17, 2019, 02:22:13 PM
Even Bernie Sanders admits it worked.

Hell Freezes Over :Bernie Sanders Admits That GOP’s Tax Cuts are a Boon for America’s Middle Class

“Yeah, it is a very good thing, and that’s why we should have made the tax breaks for the middle class permanent. Should we focus on the needs of the middle class? We should have.

https://youtu.be/BsTcF-8IL-Q

https://youtu.be/BsTcF-8IL-Q (https://youtu.be/BsTcF-8IL-Q)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 17, 2019, 02:25:48 PM
Even Bernie Sanders admits it worked.

Hell Freezes Over :Bernie Sanders Admits That GOP’s Tax Cuts are a Boon for America’s Middle Class


Yeah..you confuse Bernie Sanders with a good policy person.  To me, he is the Democratic equivalent to Donald Trump...all hat no cattle.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kenkoko on April 17, 2019, 05:12:06 PM
Even Bernie Sanders admits it worked.

Hell Freezes Over :Bernie Sanders Admits That GOP’s Tax Cuts are a Boon for America’s Middle Class

“Yeah, it is a very good thing, and that’s why we should have made the tax breaks for the middle class permanent. Should we focus on the needs of the middle class? We should have.


Using Bernie Sanders to boost your claim does not do much.

Bernie's heart is in the right place but his policy reflects how clueless he is to solving America's problems.

What good is a $15 minimum wage when millions of jobs are getting wiped out? Why subsidize free college ? only 32% of American even go to college (41% don't even graduate). And he wants to jump straight into Medicare for all wiping out private insurance in 4 years. Massive disruptions for care providers.

Trump's tax cut is great?

Corporate tax revenue drop of 31% in 2018. Amazon's effective tax rate is -1% despite 11 billions profit. Yet you want people to celebrate the measly amount they saved on their personal income tax?

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 17, 2019, 09:05:02 PM
Not my point, I think he’s an idiot but he is also reflexively anti Trump. His automatic set position is opposite whatever Trump does. In this instance he has no choice but to agree that the tax cuts were broad and effective. It’s too obvious for even Crazy Bernie to deny.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: fortune11 on April 18, 2019, 04:54:09 AM
Not my point, I think he’s an idiot but he is also reflexively anti Trump. His automatic set position is opposite whatever Trump does. In this instance he has no choice but to agree that the tax cuts were broad and effective. It’s too obvious for even Crazy Bernie to deny.

This right here , shows your utter lack of political knowledge beyond “copy and paste “

Bernie has been equated w Trump on the left . His most rabid supporters are as close to trumps supporters in their behavior as you can get . And trump actually used many of Bernie’s own talking points on the stump (that he didn’t implement them is a different story) ..
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: nosuchreality on April 18, 2019, 08:53:44 AM
Maybe I'm too cynical and think the average taxpayer is actually stupid.  I seriously doubt many, even more than fifty percent think their tax went up or down based on whether they had bigger or smaller refund or the last check they had to send was bigger or smaller.

I'm that jaded, that the majority do understand, and can't do the math to determine if their take home pay was bigger, smaller and if told they're total tax paid was bigger or smaller and it doesn't match the I sent a bigger or smaller check on tax day, they're confused and go with the size of the check they wrote.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 18, 2019, 09:34:57 AM
Maybe I'm too cynical and think the average taxpayer is actually stupid.  I seriously doubt many, even more than fifty percent think their tax went up or down based on whether they had bigger or smaller refund or the last check they had to send was bigger or smaller.

I'm that jaded, that the majority do understand, and can't do the math to determine if their take home pay was bigger, smaller and if told they're total tax paid was bigger or smaller and it doesn't match the I sent a bigger or smaller check on tax day, they're confused and go with the size of the check they wrote.

Nope...you are right on.  The vast majority of American taxpayers think that a refund is a good thing, when in reality it is just an interest-free loan to the government.  But that also goes to the perception is reality issue.  People don't care that they got $30 or $50 more in their paycheck every month...most people have direct deposit now and probably don't even the exact amount they are supposed to get paid.  That's not even talking about people who work hourly and whose pay fluctuates.  For those people, getting a refund check is like hitting a mini lottery.  There is a joy that comes with it.

Obama did this with the payroll tax in 2009 and got no political benefit from it.  People just didn't see it.  Trump made the same mistake this time around but because they wanted to use the tax cut to run on in the midterm.  Now, it's just a giant political (arguably economic) failure.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 18, 2019, 11:46:18 AM
So if people aren't affected by a marginal tax change (up or down), why do some say this affected housing?
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: nosuchreality on April 18, 2019, 12:27:42 PM
So if people aren't affected by a marginal tax change (up or down), why do some say this affected housing?

Tribal noise. People hear losing salt (SALT) deductions, don't really know what it means. Katie Porter is running a facebook post with a guy saying Trump's tax cut elimiated all the deductions.  Talking heads babble distort and contradict each other or if you're not on a finance channel and a regu!ar news channel or show like Maher or full frontal, its a panel all in agreement marching a line of tropes as unquestionable truth.

CNN is a good example today. 
Quote
Mueller report unable to conclude 'no criminal conduct occurred' on obstruction
. Wow, I think Trump is pretty schmucky most of the time, but thats ridiculous.  Guilty until proven innocent much? 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/18/politics/mueller-report-release/index.html

Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Irvinecommuter on April 18, 2019, 12:56:40 PM
So if people aren't affected by a marginal tax change (up or down), why do some say this affected housing?

Tribal noise. People hear losing salt (SALT) deductions, don't really know what it means. Katie Porter is running a facebook post with a guy saying Trump's tax cut elimiated all the deductions.  Talking heads babble distort and contradict each other or if you're not on a finance channel and a regu!ar news channel or show like Maher or full frontal, its a panel all in agreement marching a line of tropes as unquestionable truth.

CNN is a good example today. 
Quote
Mueller report unable to conclude 'no criminal conduct occurred' on obstruction
. Wow, I think Trump is pretty schmucky most of the time, but thats ridiculous.  Guilty until proven innocent much? 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/18/politics/mueller-report-release/index.html

I rather this discussion stay in the other thread but Mueller literally said that there was not enough evidence for criminal charge...literally innocent until proven.
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: Kings on April 18, 2019, 02:31:52 PM
no tax cuts until proven innocent

 >:D
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 26, 2019, 08:20:43 AM
More "if true..thens"....those lines have not worked out as of late.

2.9% GDP in 2018 was a real thing. 

2014:  2.5
2015:  2.9
2016:  1.6
2017:  2.3
2018:  2.9

Are you predicting GDP growth in 2019 to be better than 2.9%?

Surprise!! Didn't see that comin. Well, not really.

US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations

First-quarter gross domestic product expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial read of the economy for that period.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the U.S. economy increased by 2.5% in the first quarter.
Gross domestic product for the first quarter was the best start to a year since 2015.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1-2019-first-read.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1-2019-first-read.html)

https://youtu.be/yMwmqp3GLMc

https://youtu.be/yMwmqp3GLMc (https://youtu.be/yMwmqp3GLMc)
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: eyephone on April 26, 2019, 08:34:21 AM
CNBC article:The average tax refund for the week of April 19 was $2,725 — down 2% from last year’s levels.
Overall, the federal government paid $260.9 billion in tax refunds, which is nearly $5 billion less compared to last spring.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/the-irs-stats-are-in-heres-how-tax-refunds-look-compared-to-last-year.html
Title: Re: SALT Deduction
Post by: morekaos on April 26, 2019, 08:43:07 AM
CNBC article:The average tax refund for the week of April 19 was $2,725 — down 2% from last year’s levels.
Overall, the federal government paid $260.9 billion in tax refunds, which is nearly $5 billion less compared to last spring.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/the-irs-stats-are-in-heres-how-tax-refunds-look-compared-to-last-year.html


Because take home pay was increased by the tax cut.  (according to the New York Times)

Why a Tax Cut Might Not
Mean a Bigger Refund

By JEFF SOMMER and KEITH COLLINS FEB. 22, 2019

Thanks to a change in the law, most Americans received a tax cut in 2018, the government says. But many people are finding that they are getting smaller refunds than in the past, or even that they owe money.

That’s because some cuts came in the form of fatter paychecks. After the Internal Revenue Service sent out new withholding tables early last year, employers adjusted the amounts taken out in each pay period, whether you noticed or not.

Here’s how the tax overhaul — and the amounts deducted from paychecks — affected two hypothetical taxpayers, based on calculations by the Tax Foundation, an independent think tank.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/22/your-money/tax-cuts-refund-return.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/22/your-money/tax-cuts-refund-return.html)