Talk Irvine

General => Real Estate => Irvine Real Estate => Topic started by: Mety on July 18, 2018, 02:17:48 PM

Title: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Mety on July 18, 2018, 02:17:48 PM
Does anyone else feel like now there are more homes being listed and not selling fast enough? I do, especially compare to last year around this time where homes were selling like within a week to enter into escrow.

Currently Redfin says there are 850 homes in the market. Zillow says 922. I guess they are not super accurate since there are new constructions involved, but we can assume there are about 850 homes in the market listed for sale.

Now, if we reach more than 1000 listed homes, are we in some kind of change in terms of the supply and demand relationship?

I do however feel like it's still the sellers' market, but I'm feeling the shift might be coming.

Any thoughts? Disagreement? Who knows? it might be just one of those phases it comes and goes and the market will reach even higher listing prices.

Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: eyephone on July 18, 2018, 02:21:26 PM
Read my previous posts. It says it all.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Mety on July 18, 2018, 02:24:19 PM
Read my previous posts. It says it all.

Which one? You have many posts.
Your latest post was, "Never ever prepay for service."
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: eyephone on July 18, 2018, 02:29:35 PM
Good point. The post regarding Redfin CEO housing prediction and Goldman Sachs rating on housing stocks.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Mety on July 18, 2018, 03:02:02 PM
Good point. The post regarding Redfin CEO housing prediction and Goldman Sachs rating on housing stocks.
As I previously stated, the music is slowing down.

1. Redfin’s CEO said in February that he expects housing-market conditions to get worse before they get better
2. Goldman downgrades online real-estate stocks as housing headwinds loom
3. Spring selling season has got off to a weak start, a bad sign as it is a key period for the housing industry for both new- and existing-home sales.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-downgrades-online-real-estate-stocks-as-housing-headwinds-loom-2018-06-18

https://www.investors.com/news/homebuilder-stocks-winner-analyst-warns-housing-slowdown/

Talkin' 'bout this?
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: eyephone on July 18, 2018, 03:13:59 PM
Si
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: lnc on July 18, 2018, 04:10:59 PM
There are always more home listed during the summer and less home listed during the winter.  It’s just a seasonal thing with the housing.  There are also higher sales volume during the summer to absorb these elevated listings, so it balanced out. 

I would start to worry only if the listings increase but the sales decreased.  Has Irvine reached the 6 month of housing inventory yet?

Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on July 18, 2018, 04:58:58 PM
I follow a RSM/MV Realtor on IG. In her territory there are about 161 present listings for sale. She posted a screen shot of the market trends as of this AM.

Active Under Contract 12
Pending 8
Hold 5

vs

Price Changes 29
Back On Market 4
Expired 1
Withdrawn 2

Everyone can do the math. It's July and price changes/back on market dominate the market relative to under contract/pending. This is the trend in this specific market, and every market is different. Parallels to what's going on in Irvine are more of a stretch IMHO.  If you pull up just "Irvine" on Redfin, exclude New Construction, there are about 375 homes for sale. Now hit the "price reduced" button and only 9 come up. 9 out of 375 is not the market reversal some might be waiting for. There are however 75 homes on the market greater than 90 days. There might be something there....

My .02c
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 18, 2018, 05:04:48 PM
The number of active listings in Irvine as of Wednesday at 5pm is 694 properties and that includes 81 new homes (so only 613 true resale properties).  In the past month, there have been 252 closed sales in Irvine.  That translates to 2.75 months of inventory which is still a seller's market.  Of course there's more inventory now then there was a few months ago since we are in the middle of selling season.  The number of homes listed on the market will peak in July/Aug and will be begin to drop after Labor Day.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 18, 2018, 05:48:31 PM
I follow a RSM/MV Realtor on IG. In her territory there are about 161 present listings for sale. She posted a screen shot of the market trends as of this AM.

Active Under Contract 12
Pending 8
Hold 5

vs

Price Changes 29
Back On Market 4
Expired 1
Withdrawn 2

Everyone can do the math. It's July and price changes/back on market dominate the market relative to under contract/pending. This is the trend in this specific market, and every market is different. Parallels to what's going on in Irvine are more of a stretch IMHO.  If you pull up just "Irvine" on Redfin, exclude New Construction, there are about 375 homes for sale. Now hit the "price reduced" button and only 9 come up. 9 out of 375 is not the market reversal some might be waiting for. There are however 75 homes on the market greater than 90 days. There might be something there....

My .02c


I'm seeing more and more "highly optimistic" newer listing in Irvine, here's a few as an example just in Stonegate...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/55-Cummings-92620/home/58556391

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/89-Nassau-92620/home/40101603

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Sherwood-92620/home/146211761

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/80-Melville-92620/home/58556352
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Mety on July 18, 2018, 08:30:26 PM
The number of active listings in Irvine as of Wednesday at 5pm is 694 properties and that includes 81 new homes (so only 613 true resale properties).  In the past month, there have been 252 closed sales in Irvine.  That translates to 2.75 months of inventory which is still a seller's market.  Of course there's more inventory now then there was a few months ago since we are in the middle of selling season.  The number of homes listed on the market will peak in July/Aug and will be begin to drop after Labor Day.

So you don't notice anything different or slow? I know you list your homes with right price all the time so you personally might not be having any issues selling them, but what about other listings?
Would you say the price will rise even more from here? I'm talking about short term like a year or two. We all know the home will appreciate if you sit on it for 10+ years, but I'm curious what experts are thinking or feeling how this market is currently moving. We are not God so our prediction could be wrong. Just asking for opinions and advises.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: fortune11 on July 18, 2018, 09:08:21 PM
Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you — enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a “stupid country” — he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency — and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a “very stable genius.”

It is furthermore the president’s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by “stupid people” and “our laws are so corrupt and stupid.” We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the “dumbest” immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

“We’re so stupid!” Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

“You feel like sort of stupid, don’t you?” Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. “Don’t you feel stupid?”

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,” he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump’s assessment of his own country’s stupidity, tacking on the words “We agree.”

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. “The United States has been foolish,” he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin’s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump announced. “I don’t see any reason why it would be” Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is “very smart” in Trump’s estimation (though not a “smart cookie” like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls “who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.”

And the CIA’s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (“we have this stupidity going on — pure stupidity,” Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC “should be ashamed of themselves” for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance and go his “own way,” and his later claim that the European Union is America’s “foe.” Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO “is much stronger” for Trump’s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is “totally controlled by Russia” thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he “was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.”

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she “wrecked Brexit” and “didn’t listen” to his advice. Rubes! “I didn’t criticize the prime minister,” Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump’s genius could discern that “they like me here.”

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump’s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can’t see Russia did not help Trump win. “We ran a brilliant campaign, and that’s why I’m president,” Trump said.

If Trump is right — and he is so smart that he must be — then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia’s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 18, 2018, 10:07:54 PM
The number of active listings in Irvine as of Wednesday at 5pm is 694 properties and that includes 81 new homes (so only 613 true resale properties).  In the past month, there have been 252 closed sales in Irvine.  That translates to 2.75 months of inventory which is still a seller's market.  Of course there's more inventory now then there was a few months ago since we are in the middle of selling season.  The number of homes listed on the market will peak in July/Aug and will be begin to drop after Labor Day.

So you don't notice anything different or slow? I know you list your homes with right price all the time so you personally might not be having any issues selling them, but what about other listings?
Would you say the price will rise even more from here? I'm talking about short term like a year or two. We all know the home will appreciate if you sit on it for 10+ years, but I'm curious what experts are thinking or feeling how this market is currently moving. We are not God so our prediction could be wrong. Just asking for opinions and advises.

Here's what I'm seeing as I'm both a listing agent and buyer agent in Irvine.....properties priced right move fast, properties with unique features (highly upgraded, larger lots, view lots, etc) move fast, properties under $1m around comps move fast with multiple offers, properties way over comps sit, properties in bad locations sit, and properties that don't show well and aren't priced at or below comps sit.  I am seeing an increasing number of listings with prices that are way too high to even appraise and all those properties will do is just sit on the market until the sellers comes to their senses or they will be delisted. 

I thought prices this year would have been flat since rates have ticked up a bit, but I was wrong about that predication.  Prices are up about 4-8% YTD in Irvine.  Where do I think prices head in the next year or two?  Well, barring any economic downturn I think prices will continue to slowly grind higher.  As I mentioned before, keep an eye out on not just the total inventory level (as that is seasonal) but keep an eye out on the months of inventory of homes on the market.  Anything below 4 months of inventory is a seller's market, 4-6 months of inventory is a neutral market, and 6+ months of inventory is a buyer's market.  For us to get to even a neutral market, we would need about 1,000 active listings on the market today (for a buyer's market we would need about 1,500 active listings). 
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Kings on July 19, 2018, 07:27:06 AM
Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you — enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a “stupid country” — he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency — and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a “very stable genius.”

It is furthermore the president’s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by “stupid people” and “our laws are so corrupt and stupid.” We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the “dumbest” immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

“We’re so stupid!” Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

“You feel like sort of stupid, don’t you?” Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. “Don’t you feel stupid?”

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,” he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump’s assessment of his own country’s stupidity, tacking on the words “We agree.”

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. “The United States has been foolish,” he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin’s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump announced. “I don’t see any reason why it would be” Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is “very smart” in Trump’s estimation (though not a “smart cookie” like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls “who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.”

And the CIA’s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (“we have this stupidity going on — pure stupidity,” Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC “should be ashamed of themselves” for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance and go his “own way,” and his later claim that the European Union is America’s “foe.” Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO “is much stronger” for Trump’s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is “totally controlled by Russia” thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he “was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.”

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she “wrecked Brexit” and “didn’t listen” to his advice. Rubes! “I didn’t criticize the prime minister,” Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump’s genius could discern that “they like me here.”

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump’s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can’t see Russia did not help Trump win. “We ran a brilliant campaign, and that’s why I’m president,” Trump said.

If Trump is right — and he is so smart that he must be — then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia’s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.

what does this have to do with irvine real estate? can you please explain? i'm feeling a little stupid  :)
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: fortune11 on July 19, 2018, 09:03:52 AM
Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you — enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a “stupid country” — he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency — and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a “very stable genius.”

It is furthermore the president’s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by “stupid people” and “our laws are so corrupt and stupid.” We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the “dumbest” immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

“We’re so stupid!” Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

“You feel like sort of stupid, don’t you?” Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. “Don’t you feel stupid?”

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,” he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump’s assessment of his own country’s stupidity, tacking on the words “We agree.”

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. “The United States has been foolish,” he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin’s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump announced. “I don’t see any reason why it would be” Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is “very smart” in Trump’s estimation (though not a “smart cookie” like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls “who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.”

And the CIA’s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (“we have this stupidity going on — pure stupidity,” Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC “should be ashamed of themselves” for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance and go his “own way,” and his later claim that the European Union is America’s “foe.” Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO “is much stronger” for Trump’s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is “totally controlled by Russia” thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he “was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.”

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she “wrecked Brexit” and “didn’t listen” to his advice. Rubes! “I didn’t criticize the prime minister,” Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump’s genius could discern that “they like me here.”

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump’s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can’t see Russia did not help Trump win. “We ran a brilliant campaign, and that’s why I’m president,” Trump said.

If Trump is right — and he is so smart that he must be — then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia’s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.

what does this have to do with irvine real estate? can you please explain? i'm feeling a little stupid  :)

hey , you got me there -- wrong thread !   not going to blame my phone : )
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Mety on July 19, 2018, 09:34:12 AM
Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you — enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a “stupid country” — he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency — and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a “very stable genius.”

It is furthermore the president’s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by “stupid people” and “our laws are so corrupt and stupid.” We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the “dumbest” immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

“We’re so stupid!” Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

“You feel like sort of stupid, don’t you?” Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. “Don’t you feel stupid?”

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,” he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump’s assessment of his own country’s stupidity, tacking on the words “We agree.”

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. “The United States has been foolish,” he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin’s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump announced. “I don’t see any reason why it would be” Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is “very smart” in Trump’s estimation (though not a “smart cookie” like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls “who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.”

And the CIA’s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (“we have this stupidity going on — pure stupidity,” Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC “should be ashamed of themselves” for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance and go his “own way,” and his later claim that the European Union is America’s “foe.” Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO “is much stronger” for Trump’s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is “totally controlled by Russia” thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he “was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.”

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she “wrecked Brexit” and “didn’t listen” to his advice. Rubes! “I didn’t criticize the prime minister,” Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump’s genius could discern that “they like me here.”

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump’s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can’t see Russia did not help Trump win. “We ran a brilliant campaign, and that’s why I’m president,” Trump said.

If Trump is right — and he is so smart that he must be — then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia’s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.

what does this have to do with irvine real estate? can you please explain? i'm feeling a little stupid  :)

hey , you got me there -- wrong thread !   not going to blame my phone : )

Please keep the sacred RE thread unpolluted with political Kim Jong Trumputin Uni stories.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Mety on July 19, 2018, 09:44:20 AM
The number of active listings in Irvine as of Wednesday at 5pm is 694 properties and that includes 81 new homes (so only 613 true resale properties).  In the past month, there have been 252 closed sales in Irvine.  That translates to 2.75 months of inventory which is still a seller's market.  Of course there's more inventory now then there was a few months ago since we are in the middle of selling season.  The number of homes listed on the market will peak in July/Aug and will be begin to drop after Labor Day.

So you don't notice anything different or slow? I know you list your homes with right price all the time so you personally might not be having any issues selling them, but what about other listings?
Would you say the price will rise even more from here? I'm talking about short term like a year or two. We all know the home will appreciate if you sit on it for 10+ years, but I'm curious what experts are thinking or feeling how this market is currently moving. We are not God so our prediction could be wrong. Just asking for opinions and advises.

Here's what I'm seeing as I'm both a listing agent and buyer agent in Irvine.....properties priced right move fast, properties with unique features (highly upgraded, larger lots, view lots, etc) move fast, properties under $1m around comps move fast with multiple offers, properties way over comps sit, properties in bad locations sit, and properties that don't show well and aren't priced at or below comps sit.  I am seeing an increasing number of listings with prices that are way too high to even appraise and all those properties will do is just sit on the market until the sellers comes to their senses or they will be delisted. 

I thought prices this year would have been flat since rates have ticked up a bit, but I was wrong about that predication.  Prices are up about 4-8% YTD in Irvine.  Where do I think prices head in the next year or two?  Well, barring any economic downturn I think prices will continue to slowly grind higher.  As I mentioned before, keep an eye out on not just the total inventory level (as that is seasonal) but keep an eye out on the months of inventory of homes on the market.  Anything below 4 months of inventory is a seller's market, 4-6 months of inventory is a neutral market, and 6+ months of inventory is a buyer's market.  For us to get to even a neutral market, we would need about 1,000 active listings on the market today (for a buyer's market we would need about 1,500 active listings).

Thanks for your genuine opinion. Your answer is as always very professional.

In the beginning of the year, I thought the price was going to go even higher. But I noticed a little bit of hiccups here and there so wanted to hear what others are thinking and share information here especially from the experts' perspectives.

Though many including USC think the price will keep rising, there are other voice like eyephone who's been predicting some price reduction in the market as well.

We shall see where it's heading and don't forget that Delano is releasing another phase real soon.*



*No. I don't work for Delano, IHO and CV. I just got an email from them. They keep sending emails even though I told them I'm not buying there.



Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 19, 2018, 09:48:53 AM
@Mety: Why aren't you buying in Delano? Max ROI and noiseless garage doors. :)
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Mety on July 19, 2018, 09:55:51 AM
@Mety: Why aren't you buying in Delano? Max ROI and noiseless garage doors. :)

I actually do regret not buying in phase 1 or 2. I think I've said that before. But I went with another home which I think was a better choice for our family.

I told you that MAX ROI phase is gone too. I don't really recommend buying there now, but who knows if it will have another $200k appreciation? I doubt it though.

Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: paperboyNC on July 19, 2018, 10:32:24 AM
Many new homes have had huge appreciation from Phase I (Most of Pavilion Park, Delano, Cressa, etc.) For whatever reason, Builders occasionally underprice product. The easily flips are the affordable homes. I see some $4,000,000 resales from OH that will sit forever.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: eyephone on July 19, 2018, 10:35:02 AM
Just don’t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract.  ;)
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Irvinecommuter on July 19, 2018, 10:36:24 AM
Just don’t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract.  ;)

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: the.irvine on July 19, 2018, 10:38:22 AM
Trump lays into the Federal Reserve, says he's 'not thrilled' about interest rate hikes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/trump-lays-into-the-fed-says-hes-not-thrilled-about-interest-rate-.html
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Irvinecommuter on July 19, 2018, 10:40:42 AM
Trump lays into the Federal Reserve, says he's 'not thrilled' about interest rate hikes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/trump-lays-into-the-fed-says-hes-not-thrilled-about-interest-rate-.html

Candidate Trump:

Quote
The Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, who has previously accused the Federal Reserve of keeping interest rates low to help Barack Obama, said on Monday that the US central bank had created a “false economy” and that interest rates should change. His Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, seized on the remarks as proof that Trump is not presidential.

“They’re keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn’t go down,” Trump said in response to a reporter’s request to address a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September. “We have a very false economy,” he said.

“At some point the rates are going to have to change,” Trump, who was campaigning in Ohio on Monday, added. “The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/06/trump-us-federal-reserve-false-economy-interest-rates
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Mety on July 19, 2018, 11:06:11 AM
Just don’t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract.  ;)

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.


Some agents try to do the tricks. They promise the price they can't keep up with and the seller falls in love with that price tag. Then after the home sits for 2 months with no offers, the home finally gets delisted or the price reduction continues.

It's all about the numbers that's really important IMO. Negotiation skills, good looking flyers, and all those 3D VR tour are nice to have, but it really does come down to the listing price number that will sell the home. And I always laugh at that '888' numbers they list with. I don't think that really attracts FCB anymore. Or does anyone think it really works?



Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: bones on July 19, 2018, 11:13:35 AM
Just don’t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract.  ;)

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.


Some agents try to do the tricks. They promise the price they can't keep up with and the seller falls in love with that price tag. Then after the home sits for 2 months with no offers, the home finally gets delisted or the price reduction continues.

It's all about the numbers that's really important IMO. Negotiation skills, good looking flyers, and all those 3D VR tour are nice to have, but it really does come down to the listing price number that will sell the home. And I always laugh at that '888' numbers they list with. I don't think that really attracts FCB anymore. Or does anyone think it really works?


Interestingly, I've only had the opposite conversations with realtors.  I want to sell at X and the realtors all try to discourage me from that price.  Some straight up tell me "I'll never get it".
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 19, 2018, 11:15:29 AM
Just don’t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract.  ;)

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.


Some agents try to do the tricks. They promise the price they can't keep up with and the seller falls in love with that price tag. Then after the home sits for 2 months with no offers, the home finally gets delisted or the price reduction continues.

It's all about the numbers that's really important IMO. Negotiation skills, good looking flyers, and all those 3D VR tour are nice to have, but it really does come down to the listing price number that will sell the home. And I always laugh at that '888' numbers they list with. I don't think that really attracts FCB anymore. Or does anyone think it really works?


Bingo, many of the listings that I lose are to agents who promise these "pie in the sky" prices to sellers where I tell them what they can reasonably expect to sell their home for.  What happens?  The home sits and sits and sits followed by one price then another and then another until it eventually either gets de-listed OR it closes for a price at or below of what I said it would have.  I'm just not the type of agent to blow smoke up my client's butt, I'm very analytical and back-up my estimates with hard data.  As I tell my clients....numbers never lie, only idiot realtors do.  haha
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 19, 2018, 11:21:09 AM
The number of active listings in Irvine as of Wednesday at 5pm is 694 properties and that includes 81 new homes (so only 613 true resale properties).  In the past month, there have been 252 closed sales in Irvine.  That translates to 2.75 months of inventory which is still a seller's market.  Of course there's more inventory now then there was a few months ago since we are in the middle of selling season.  The number of homes listed on the market will peak in July/Aug and will be begin to drop after Labor Day.

So you don't notice anything different or slow? I know you list your homes with right price all the time so you personally might not be having any issues selling them, but what about other listings?
Would you say the price will rise even more from here? I'm talking about short term like a year or two. We all know the home will appreciate if you sit on it for 10+ years, but I'm curious what experts are thinking or feeling how this market is currently moving. We are not God so our prediction could be wrong. Just asking for opinions and advises.

Here's what I'm seeing as I'm both a listing agent and buyer agent in Irvine.....properties priced right move fast, properties with unique features (highly upgraded, larger lots, view lots, etc) move fast, properties under $1m around comps move fast with multiple offers, properties way over comps sit, properties in bad locations sit, and properties that don't show well and aren't priced at or below comps sit.  I am seeing an increasing number of listings with prices that are way too high to even appraise and all those properties will do is just sit on the market until the sellers comes to their senses or they will be delisted. 

I thought prices this year would have been flat since rates have ticked up a bit, but I was wrong about that predication.  Prices are up about 4-8% YTD in Irvine.  Where do I think prices head in the next year or two?  Well, barring any economic downturn I think prices will continue to slowly grind higher.  As I mentioned before, keep an eye out on not just the total inventory level (as that is seasonal) but keep an eye out on the months of inventory of homes on the market.  Anything below 4 months of inventory is a seller's market, 4-6 months of inventory is a neutral market, and 6+ months of inventory is a buyer's market.  For us to get to even a neutral market, we would need about 1,000 active listings on the market today (for a buyer's market we would need about 1,500 active listings).

Thanks for your genuine opinion. Your answer is as always very professional.

In the beginning of the year, I thought the price was going to go even higher. But I noticed a little bit of hiccups here and there so wanted to hear what others are thinking and share information here especially from the experts' perspectives.

Though many including USC think the price will keep rising, there are other voice like eyephone who's been predicting some price reduction in the market as well.

We shall see where it's heading and don't forget that Delano is releasing another phase real soon.*



*No. I don't work for Delano, IHO and CV. I just got an email from them. They keep sending emails even though I told them I'm not buying there.

I'm always happen to share what I hear and see in the market with all of you here on TI.  I call'em as I see'em and use analytical data to come up with my estimates and predictions.  I've discovered that a good tea leaf of where prices might be heading is watching the number of months of resale inventory on the market.  Remember that sellers generally list their homes slightly above the most recent closed comp and as long as there are buyers willing to buy those homes prices will continue to grind higher.  It's when there is more resale home competition on the market that buyers can negotiate prices down (if the seller is motivated to actually sell because not all sellers are motivated to sell at a realistic price).
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: id_rather_be_racing on July 19, 2018, 11:22:45 AM
@Mety: Why aren't you buying in Delano? Max ROI and noiseless garage doors. :)

I actually do regret not buying in phase 1 or 2. I think I've said that before. But I went with another home which I think was a better choice for our family.

I told you that MAX ROI phase is gone too. I don't really recommend buying there now, but who knows if it will have another $200k appreciation? I doubt it though.



I bought in phase 1 (not delano) and the appreciation is similar and very eye-opening.  Is this the case for all new neighborhoods for phase 1 or 2 homebuyers? I thought some communities had to discount subsequent phases, but not sure if that was already after 10-15 phases' price increases.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 19, 2018, 11:25:42 AM
So about owner pricing vs agent pricing.

When we sold a house I wanted X amount. But instead of listing at X amount, I listed at X + Y, even though IR2 (Scott Gunther) suggested listing lower because I wanted negotiating space.

No bites for a month, so we lowered it to X (even though I was considering lowering it to X + Z).

Then we got multiple offers, with one below X, most at X, and some over X. Accepted the highest over X offer.

So probably could have saved some time if we started at X in the first place.

Compare that to previous home (during "crash") (not listed with Scott but should have been). We listed at X (which was less than what we wanted but was hoping to move it fast). No offers for a few weeks and then got 3... all for under X. finally accepted an X - Y one. That one hurt... but... it was not 50% below what we bought it for at peak... actually only 5% under.

So just like timing, pricing is not an exact science.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 19, 2018, 11:26:16 AM
Just don’t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract.  ;)

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.


Some agents try to do the tricks. They promise the price they can't keep up with and the seller falls in love with that price tag. Then after the home sits for 2 months with no offers, the home finally gets delisted or the price reduction continues.

It's all about the numbers that's really important IMO. Negotiation skills, good looking flyers, and all those 3D VR tour are nice to have, but it really does come down to the listing price number that will sell the home. And I always laugh at that '888' numbers they list with. I don't think that really attracts FCB anymore. Or does anyone think it really works?


Interestingly, I've only had the opposite conversations with realtors.  I want to sell at X and the realtors all try to discourage me from that price.  Some straight up tell me "I'll never get it".

Those are agents that want a "slam dunk" listing where they set the bar so low with the seller that when the home sells at a higher price than their overly conservative estimate they hope to look like a superstar to their client. Instances where I've "under priced" some of my listings, the mutually agreed upon sales price that I have with the seller is materially above the list price.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: woodburyowner on July 19, 2018, 11:38:44 AM
The flipside of the argument is that some listings do close at a WTF price.  Every seller has the mindset, it just takes one buyer... a buyer that gets emotionally attached to a particular home and overbids. 
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 19, 2018, 11:41:11 AM
The flipside of the argument is that some listings do close at a WTF price.  Every seller has the mindset, it just takes one buyer... a buyer that gets emotionally attached to a particular home and overbids. 

This is very true and tends to happen in situations where there are multiple offers on a home.  An emotional buyer will basically outbid themselves to get the home.  I've had a handful of those situations where the ultimate buyer had the highest offer (higher than even the best and final counter from the 2nd highest offer) and they increased their offer amount by $20k-$40k from their original offer.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Kings on July 19, 2018, 03:10:08 PM
The flipside of the argument is that some listings do close at a WTF price.  Every seller has the mindset, it just takes one buyer... a buyer that gets emotionally attached to a particular home and overbids. 

This is very true and tends to happen in situations where there are multiple offers on a home.  An emotional buyer will basically outbid themselves to get the home.  I've had a handful of those situations where the ultimate buyer had the highest offer (higher than even the best and final counter from the 2nd highest offer) and they increased their offer amount by $20k-$40k from their original offer.

i would imagine these properties have a unique selling feature like A+ location, rare floorplan, or oversized yard
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Halos on July 19, 2018, 08:18:54 PM
Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you — enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a “stupid country” — he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency — and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a “very stable genius.”

It is furthermore the president’s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by “stupid people” and “our laws are so corrupt and stupid.” We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the “dumbest” immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

“We’re so stupid!” Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

“You feel like sort of stupid, don’t you?” Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. “Don’t you feel stupid?”

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,” he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump’s assessment of his own country’s stupidity, tacking on the words “We agree.”

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. “The United States has been foolish,” he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin’s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump announced. “I don’t see any reason why it would be” Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is “very smart” in Trump’s estimation (though not a “smart cookie” like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls “who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.”

And the CIA’s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (“we have this stupidity going on — pure stupidity,” Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC “should be ashamed of themselves” for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance and go his “own way,” and his later claim that the European Union is America’s “foe.” Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO “is much stronger” for Trump’s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is “totally controlled by Russia” thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he “was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.”

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she “wrecked Brexit” and “didn’t listen” to his advice. Rubes! “I didn’t criticize the prime minister,” Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump’s genius could discern that “they like me here.”

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump’s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can’t see Russia did not help Trump win. “We ran a brilliant campaign, and that’s why I’m president,” Trump said.

If Trump is right — and he is so smart that he must be — then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia’s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.

Let's all stamp our feet on the ground in a fit of rage for 2 minutes please

(http://i67.tinypic.com/2qmot9u.jpg)

Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: mgc949 on July 20, 2018, 03:10:28 AM
I seem to be seing more homes being listed AND a lot of price reductions lately. Their is talk of a bubble as I'm sure most know....Do you think a home in Northpark would sell faster than a home at the Great Park or Porola Springs since it is Guard Gated, has 5 pools, tennis courts, lower HOA, etc OR would buyers still prefer a newer home even though you might not get your own drive way since everthing under $1.5 is in a motor court...lol
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Halos on July 20, 2018, 07:33:57 AM
I seem to be seing more homes being listed AND a lot of price reductions lately. Their is talk of a bubble as I'm sure most know....Do you think a home in Northpark would sell faster than a home at the Great Park or Porola Springs since it is Guard Gated, has 5 pools, tennis courts, lower HOA, etc OR would buyers still prefer a newer home even though you might not get your own drive way since everthing under $1.5 is in a motor court...lol

Sales down 20% YoY in So Cal
Inventory up 213% YoY in So Cal

Global luxury RE is slowing down everywhere. Definitely in a bubble, with price declines just starting.

I think Northpark would be a much better choice than GP or PS.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: sell4u on July 21, 2018, 06:15:08 AM
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Irvine Dream on July 21, 2018, 10:00:28 AM
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS
It will be awesome if you can go back to 2003, then we can see how much correlation to price vs no of listing, atleast 2 up cylces and 1 down cycle
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: kpatnps on July 21, 2018, 06:42:11 PM
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

So 2018 has a 23% increase in inventory compared to 2017.  What would also be telling is the trajectory of this increase.  I saw Steve Thomas' report on housing and it seems the acceleration is quite significant suggesting this may increase more in the following months.  Any thoughts? 
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: sell4u on July 22, 2018, 06:01:20 AM
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

So 2018 has a 23% increase in inventory compared to 2017.  What would also be telling is the trajectory of this increase.  I saw Steve Thomas' report on housing and it seems the acceleration is quite significant suggesting this may increase more in the following months.  Any thoughts? 

Not sure if it's significant acceleration vs bouncing off the bottom of low inventory #'s. I haven't seen Irvine go farther than the low 700's in the past few years. 
Orange County Active Properties
7/18 - 6367
7/17 - 5716
7/16 - 7028
7/15 - 6711

Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Rizdak on July 22, 2018, 07:05:32 AM
OC Register leading with this article today on demand and supply... some interesting stats.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/07/22/are-builders-catching-up-to-southern-californias-housing-shortage/
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: Compressed-Village on July 22, 2018, 11:38:36 AM
OC Register leading with this article today on demand and supply... some interesting stats.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/07/22/are-builders-catching-up-to-southern-californias-housing-shortage/

Demands is always there. Qualifications and loans approval is another. This is the reason why risks for major melt down eliminated. We will have minimal price decrease in SoCal especially Irvine due to the facts that those loans were obtained with substantial skins in the game and Dodd-Frank lending rules has protected the system from crazy, greedy lending practices.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 22, 2018, 12:33:26 PM
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

So 2018 has a 23% increase in inventory compared to 2017.  What would also be telling is the trajectory of this increase.  I saw Steve Thomas' report on housing and it seems the acceleration is quite significant suggesting this may increase more in the following months.  Any thoughts? 

Inventory levels tend to start dropping after Labor Day and will keep decreasing until Christmas/New Years (this is the low point of inventory).  The peak of inventory tends to be July/Aug.
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: i1 on July 22, 2018, 03:44:36 PM
Bingo, many of the listings that I lose are to agents who promise these "pie in the sky" prices to sellers where I tell them what they can reasonably expect to sell their home for.  What happens?  The home sits and sits and sits followed by one price then another and then another until it eventually either gets de-listed OR it closes for a price at or below of what I said it would have.  I'm just not the type of agent to blow smoke up my client's butt, I'm very analytical and back-up my estimates with hard data.  As I tell my clients....numbers never lie, only idiot realtors do.  haha
Correct me if I'm wrong but from what i can tell, your pricing strategy seems to generally be to list for slightly below market value, create a multiple offer situation and then generally the seller can get slightly over list price for a final transaction price either at or marginally above other comps. This creates a very quick and efficient sale with less time needed.

I've seen other agents who also like to list below market value to create an auction environment. Do you think there are different situations or market conditions where by listing too low, you might anchor the price negotiation at too low of a starting point (i.e., buyers are only willing to overbid by X amount and if we list too low, it's harder to get above market value)? Perhaps by listing closer to market value (or even very marginally above in certain cases), a higher sales price could be achieved, though perhaps taking slightly longer to complete a sale?
Title: Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 22, 2018, 08:27:43 PM
Bingo, many of the listings that I lose are to agents who promise these "pie in the sky" prices to sellers where I tell them what they can reasonably expect to sell their home for.  What happens?  The home sits and sits and sits followed by one price then another and then another until it eventually either gets de-listed OR it closes for a price at or below of what I said it would have.  I'm just not the type of agent to blow smoke up my client's butt, I'm very analytical and back-up my estimates with hard data.  As I tell my clients....numbers never lie, only idiot realtors do.  haha
Correct me if I'm wrong but from what i can tell, your pricing strategy seems to generally be to list for slightly below market value, create a multiple offer situation and then generally the seller can get slightly over list price for a final transaction price either at or marginally above other comps. This creates a very quick and efficient sale with less time needed.

I've seen other agents who also like to list below market value to create an auction environment. Do you think there are different situations or market conditions where by listing too low, you might anchor the price negotiation at too low of a starting point (i.e., buyers are only willing to overbid by X amount and if we list too low, it's harder to get above market value)? Perhaps by listing closer to market value (or even very marginally above in certain cases), a higher sales price could be achieved, though perhaps taking slightly longer to complete a sale?

It's really a case by case situation which pricing strategy works best for the seller and their property.  I only recommend that a home be slightly under-listed (no more than $20k-30k below closed comps) if the market is strong for that type of property which will ensure that we get the buyer velocity of offers to get the price back up to comps and at times have it go over closed comps due to a bidding war.  An example would be a 3-bedroom condo under $800k in Irvine.

To your point, it's not a good idea to under-list any property if you are in a neutral or in a buyer's market because then you won't get enough buyers to bid up the property back to the market price.  It's also not a good idea to under-list when there are several of the same or similar floor plans listed on the market because buyers will feel that they won't need to bid up an under-listed property. 

Typically if a seller wants to sell a property quickly (when the home is vacant or if they don't want to deal with keeping an occupied home in show condition for months because they have kids) then slightly under-listing may be the right strategy.  Listing a higher priced property (e.g. $1m+ in Irvine) too low where you don't have enough buyers to bring it back up to market price is not optimal. In those situations, pricing should be above closed comps so you leave room to negotiate the price down to a price both the buyer and seller feel comfortable at. 

Understanding which type of property should and shouldn't be under-listed is very important and takes someone who understands the buyer dynamics within that particular market and price band.  At the end of the day, I provide all of the different pricing options with my sellers with the potential pros and cons for each option and let them decide which option they are most comfortable with.  Yes, getting the seller the highest price possible is very important but how much time that takes to get the home sold should also be considered in the equation because time is money, especially with vacant properties.