Talk Irvine

General => Economy & Finance => Topic started by: Liar Loan on November 29, 2017, 11:30:22 AM

Title: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 29, 2017, 11:30:22 AM
Bitcoin just gained another $1,000 in price hitting $11,000 this morning, before investors started cashing in their gains and driving the price lower.  The currency has gone up about 10x in value this year.

(https://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/20171202_WOC316_1.png)


Similarly, in the year 1637 tulip bulb mania swept Holland and the price of bulbs increased by 10x or more before crashing spectacularly:

(https://static1.squarespace.com/static/569fce7adf40f315de772b61/t/56bbd6602fe131cc9e2d1cfa/1455150692533/)


Here's how insane the Dutch tulip bubble was according to Investopedia:

Quote
Soon, prices were rising so fast and high that people were trading their land, life savings, and anything else they could liquidate to get more tulip bulbs. Many Dutch persisted in believing they would sell their hoard to hapless and unenlightened foreigners, thereby reaping enormous profits.

The part about selling to hapless foreigners reminds me of Irvine a little bit, but my question is how high does Bitcoin go before experiencing a similar crash?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: HMart on November 29, 2017, 11:34:39 AM
If you want to put your money where your mouth is... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-27/calling-a-bitcoin-top-here-s-how-you-can-short-the-digital-coin
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on November 29, 2017, 11:44:00 AM
Parabolic
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 29, 2017, 12:01:23 PM
If you want to put your money where your mouth is... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-27/calling-a-bitcoin-top-here-s-how-you-can-short-the-digital-coin

Short selling isn't my thing.  I prefer to swoop in after a crash to scoop up assets that nobody else wants. 

Parabolic

My thought exactly.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on November 29, 2017, 12:07:37 PM
This has every call sign of a mania.  True believers, no fundamentals, new and ingenious ways of justifying astronomical valuations, amateurs making zillions and tempting other fools into the greater fool loop.  It will last longer that people expect and the nay-sayers have to start questioning themselves...then it will collapse spectacularly!!!
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 29, 2017, 12:24:06 PM
This has every call sign of a mania.  True believers, no fundamentals, new and ingenious ways of justifying astronomical valuations, amateurs making zillions and tempting other fools into the greater fool loop.  It will last longer that people expect and the nay-sayers have to start questioning themselves...then it will collapse spectacularly!!!

When you start seeing it on the news and everywhere on Facebook then you'll know the time is near.  When it crashes, it'll be a show to see.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 29, 2017, 12:42:27 PM
Once you see the Bitcoin naysayers being ridiculed as fools in the mainstream financial press, that's when I think the crash will occur.  At that point, when even the naysayers begin questioning their understanding of reality, there really are no buyers left.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on November 29, 2017, 12:45:32 PM
Ride the wave.

It’s Business! Leave the emotions at the door.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on November 29, 2017, 12:54:11 PM
You really can look at the real estate wave from IHB.  It was more slow motion but even there some nay-sayers were weakening when the collapse finally came.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on November 29, 2017, 01:04:32 PM
My previously posts regarding bitcoin responses to Belly:

I guess you didn't get the memo regarding the hot crypto currencies. That's where people are investing.

There's always a risk. As long as you are aware of the risk.
It's like buying a house by plants that are sprayed with pesticides. Some people may not want to buy to live there and some do. (Buy at your own risk)  ;)

http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,15770.30.html





http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,15770.30.html


Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on December 02, 2017, 10:55:27 AM
Maybe sooner than later


Bitcoin is already dwarfing some of the largest financial market bubbles of all time

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/bitcoin-dwarfing-some-of-the-largest-market-bubbles-of-all-time.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/bitcoin-dwarfing-some-of-the-largest-market-bubbles-of-all-time.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 11, 2017, 01:12:10 PM
Well...this isn't a problem.

Quote
Bitcoin is in the "mania" phase, with some people even borrowing money to get in on the action, securities regulator Joseph Borg told CNBC on Monday.

"We've seen mortgages being taken out to buy bitcoin. … People do credit cards, equity lines," said Borg, president of the North American Securities Administrators Association, a voluntary organization devoted to investor protection. Borg is also director of the Alabama Securities Commission.

"This is not something a guy who's making $100,000 a year, who's got a mortgage and two kids in college ought to be invested in."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/11/people-are-taking-out-mortgages-to-buy-bitcoin-says-joseph-borg.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: nosuchreality on December 12, 2017, 01:00:13 PM
First you need to define crash.

Is going from 13,000 to 6000 a crash?    13,000 back to 1000?

It's solidly the currency of choice (granted a lot of choices popping up) of the anti-goverment/blackmarket/prepper/hide your stuff from your having money unfriendly governments types.

Let's be honest, the local Ferrari dealer will take bitcoin. Well, used to at least, the volatility, like some well known game platforms may have lost their taste for being a platform of exchange for it.

So crash to nothing?  Only if an actual hack shows up, however if a hack shows up, suspect global ecommerce is in for a total sh*tstorm along with credit cards, debit cards.

Nutshell, there's a max of 21 million bitcoins (currently only around 16 million) and a rather large number of people that want to move money around via that channel such that only 16 million pieces of exchange is a rather nasty bottleneck.



Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 12, 2017, 01:09:38 PM
Nutshell, there's a max of 21 million bitcoins (currently only around 16 million) and a rather large number of people that want to move money around via that channel such that only 16 million pieces of exchange is a rather nasty bottleneck.

I hear these numbers thrown around a lot by my friends that are into Bitcoin, but currently there are 800 different crypto-currencies in "circulation" so really the number of digital "coins" that can be mined is infinite.  These are just digital sets of 1's and 0's after all. 

Bitcoin's only real advantage is being first to market, as far as I can tell.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on December 12, 2017, 01:41:33 PM
Myspace and Netscape got there first too.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: daedalus on December 13, 2017, 01:12:43 AM
The end is near.

At the gym tonight there were 2 young guys discussing bit coin.  I know they were young because they were marveling at how much bit coin has gone up recently, saying nothing has ever gone up that much so fast before.  Clearly they were not around to make and lose fortunes daytrading the likes of BRCM, JNPR, NTAP, QCOM, GBLX and, my favorite, INFY. 

They went back and forth for a little bit, debating about whether it's some kind of bubble.  They finally agreed, more or less, that it was.  Then they started discussing the best way to invest in it.  One guy pondered how far it might fall and at what price might be the best place to jump in.  The other guy replied that the best way to get in is to start now and put a small amount in at regular intervals.  First guy objects, and asks, if it's a bubble, why get in now?   Second guy replies--and this is a direct quote--"well, that's how you're supposed to invest in other things, like risky stocks." 

He actually characterized stocks as "risky" in the context of a discussion about bitcoin.  I almost dropped a bar on my head.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: nosuchreality on December 13, 2017, 07:01:12 AM
Nutshell, there's a max of 21 million bitcoins (currently only around 16 million) and a rather large number of people that want to move money around via that channel such that only 16 million pieces of exchange is a rather nasty bottleneck.

I hear these numbers thrown around a lot by my friends that are into Bitcoin, but currently there are 800 different crypto-currencies in "circulation" so really the number of digital "coins" that can be mined is infinite.  These are just digital sets of 1's and 0's after all. 

Bitcoin's only real advantage is being first to market, as far as I can tell.

Technically correct, but ask someone what Ethereum is and you'll get a blank stare let alone any of the others.  Frankly I won't touch any of them at this point because it seems like playing with stock back in the days of Rockfeller and Joe Kennedy before there was an SEC and regulations.  They're thinly traded and your bitcoin value upon liquidation depends on which trading platform you use.

I saw a stat for one of the exchanges that trades bitcoin, back in August when the coin split into bitcoin cash and bit coin, over half didn't deal with their accounts to get the bitcoin cash.

All that said, if it blows back to $600 it'll take the wind out, but I'm not sure it'll remove the mass of money that wants to move around without government intervention. 

Gold, silver, puka shells, pesos, dollar.  Money is only worth something if someone will agree to take it in exchange for products and services.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 04, 2018, 03:23:31 PM
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/dK3UxDEff6g6EPgjfNeMCQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/http://media.zenfs.com/en-GB/homerun/video.cnbcuk.com/741e20fed2ac64e991fdb6e6ed612f8e)

Quote
Noted investor Jeremy Grantham, who called the last two major market bubbles, said bitcoin is a bubble that may crash soon.

"This is a true, crazy mini-bubble of its own I expect," Grantham, co-founder of Boston-based investment management firm GMO, said in a Wednesday letter to clients.

In the letter, Grantham also included a chart illustrating how large and how rapid the bitcoin price surge has been in the last two years compared with other historical bubbles.

"As you can see, Bitcoin dwarfs even the legendary South Sea Bubble!" he said. "Having no clear fundamental value and largely unregulated markets, coupled with a storyline conducive to delusions of grandeur, makes this more than anything we can find in the history books the very essence of a bubble."

Other well-known investors have said for months that bitcoin is in a bubble, and compared it to the tulip bulb mania or speculation in Beanie Babies. J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called the digital currency a "fraud."

But none of the criticism has deterred bitcoin's surge so far, or prevented others from predicting further gains.

And although bitcoin has struggled in the last two weeks to stay above $15,000, prices of other cryptocurrencies have surged dramatically. The market value of all cryptocurrencies has multiplied roughly 38 times from this time last year to more than $770 billion Thursday, according to CoinMarketCap.

Former Fortress hedge fund manager Mike Novogratz has also said cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are the "biggest bubble of our lifetimes," with a lot of money to be made on the way up.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/04/investor-who-called-two-market-crashes-says-bitcoin-is-a-bubble.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 04, 2018, 03:42:13 PM
Fundamentally, bitcoin undermines national sovereignty.  Why would any first or second world country ever allow cryptocurrency as it would undermine their own currencies?   It is not trackable, outside of the traditional banking industry, and used by criminals. 

You would need some sort of 3rd world revolt but the stakesholders in 3rd world uses US currencies and thus would not want the change anyways.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Panda on January 04, 2018, 04:05:42 PM
 8)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 04, 2018, 04:25:26 PM
If I make IrvineCoin it will go bonkers. :)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 09, 2018, 07:56:07 AM
This has every call sign of a mania.  True believers, no fundamentals, new and ingenious ways of justifying astronomical valuations, amateurs making zillions and tempting other fools into the greater fool loop.  It will last longer that people expect and the nay-sayers have to start questioning themselves...then it will collapse spectacularly!!!

uh-oh...the naysayers are starting to question their beliefs...that was fast.

Jamie Dimon says he regrets calling bitcoin a fraud

and believes in the technology behind it
J.P. Morgan Chase CEO said he regrets calling bitcoin a fraud.
"The blockchain is real," Dimon tells Fox Business.
Dimon remains concerned about how "governments are going to feel about bitcoin when it gets really big."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/jamie-dimon-says-he-regrets-calling-bitcoin-a-fraud.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/jamie-dimon-says-he-regrets-calling-bitcoin-a-fraud.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 09, 2018, 09:23:37 AM
This has every call sign of a mania.  True believers, no fundamentals, new and ingenious ways of justifying astronomical valuations, amateurs making zillions and tempting other fools into the greater fool loop.  It will last longer that people expect and the nay-sayers have to start questioning themselves...then it will collapse spectacularly!!!

uh-oh...the naysayers are starting to question their beliefs...that was fast.

Jamie Dimon says he regrets calling bitcoin a fraud

and believes in the technology behind it
J.P. Morgan Chase CEO said he regrets calling bitcoin a fraud.
"The blockchain is real," Dimon tells Fox Business.
Dimon remains concerned about how "governments are going to feel about bitcoin when it gets really big."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/jamie-dimon-says-he-regrets-calling-bitcoin-a-fraud.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/jamie-dimon-says-he-regrets-calling-bitcoin-a-fraud.html)

Blockchain can be real...doesn't mean bitcoin or others like will be.  Nations can adopt blockchain technology.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 09, 2018, 09:31:24 AM
Bitcoin itself isn't a fraud, but the prices people are paying are built on speculation and hype.  There's no fundamental value to bitcoin or any of the other 800 currencies out there.

It used to be I only had 1-2 friends that were into crypto investing and they were true believers in the blockchain.  That was about 6 months ago.  Now I can't go anywhere without somebody talking about their bets on different currencies.  These aren't people investing based on their belief in the blockchain, but rather looking for the next lottery ticket, hoping for another 1,000% gain (Bitcoin would have to hit $150,000 for that to happen). 

It's all this dumb money that is driving prices higher right now.  It's the classic definition of a speculative bubble.  Just like '99 when people poured money into any company with a dotcom in the name, or '05 when people would pay any amount for a house because they could flip it 6 months later for a nice gain, or '11 when 'We buy gold' shops were everywhere and you couldn't go on any online forum without hearing about how we should all invest our life savings in gold coins.

This too will crash.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 09, 2018, 09:45:45 AM
This reminds me of Enron.  It took major institutions to buy into the ideas of Enron.  Enron had a whole desk of traders who would trade weather futures to hedge agriculture and recreational companies (IE ski resorts and snow mobile manufacturers)  Today, it sounds ridiculous but it made some sense on the surface and in the end it collapsed spectacularly.  Now major banks are talking about setting up crypto trading desks...look out below!!!
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 09, 2018, 09:53:01 AM
This reminds me of Enron.  It took major institutions to buy into the ideas of Enron.  Enron had a whole desk of traders who would trade weather futures to hedge agriculture and recreational companies (IE ski resorts and snow mobile manufacturers)  Today, it sounds ridiculous but it made some sense on the surface and in the end it collapsed spectacularly.  Now major banks are talking about setting up crypto trading desks...look out below!!!

But that was actually based upon actual products and needs...bitcoin is literally just made up currency with no support or basis.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on January 09, 2018, 10:07:09 AM
As soon as Ralphs or Mobil Oil begins taking BitCoin/DogeCoin/Etherium it's always going to be a vaporous investment. If every day use happens, then it's an investment vehicle worth considering.

That said the crash happens either:

A) When your dopey neighbor/uncle/hairdresser says "I'm thinking about buying some bitecash"

or

B) When you have to ask the "how soon until BitCoin crashes?" question to begin with.

My .02c

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 09, 2018, 11:18:39 AM
As soon as Ralphs or Mobil Oil begins taking BitCoin/DogeCoin/Etherium it's always going to be a vaporous investment. If every day use happens, then it's an investment vehicle worth considering.

That said the crash happens either:

A) When your dopey neighbor/uncle/hairdresser says "I'm thinking about buying some bitecash"

or

B) When you have to ask the "how soon until BitCoin crashes?" question to begin with.

My .02c



Than today is the day because I check both those boxes.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Happiness on January 09, 2018, 11:44:37 AM
Kodak announces the launch of Kodakcoin

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/kodak-stock-surges-after-announcing-coin-to-join-crypto-craze
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 09, 2018, 11:58:38 AM
Kodak announces the launch of Kodakcoin

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/kodak-stock-surges-after-announcing-coin-to-join-crypto-craze

Okay...it's over now.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: daedalus on January 09, 2018, 12:07:54 PM
Quote
“a photocentric cryptocurrency to empower photographers and agencies to take greater control in image rights management.”
dafuq you say?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 09, 2018, 12:23:00 PM
Quote
“a photocentric cryptocurrency to empower photographers and agencies to take greater control in image rights management.”
dafuq you say?

Who cares?!  Just buy some before you miss out!!
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 09, 2018, 01:19:05 PM
This is just as funny...and sort of similar

Aug 26 2001
Flooz.com Announces Closure

Started by iVillage co-founder Robert Levitan, the company attempted to establish a currency unique to Internet merchants, somewhat similar in concept to airline frequent flier programs or grocery store stamp books. The name "flooz" was based upon the Arabic word for money, فلوس, fuloos. Users accumulated flooz credits either as a promotional bonus given away by some internet businesses or purchased directly from flooz.com which then could be redeemed for merchandise at a variety of participating online stores. Adoption of flooz by both merchants and customers proved limited, and it never established itself as a widely recognized medium of exchange, which hindered both its usefulness and appeal.

https://worldhistoryproject.org/2001/8/26/floozcom-announces-closure (https://worldhistoryproject.org/2001/8/26/floozcom-announces-closure)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 11, 2018, 11:30:32 AM
As I have said in other threads...Never bet against this man...

Buffett on cryptocurrencies: 'I can say almost with certainty that they will come to a bad ending'

Warren Buffett tells CNBC the recent craze over bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies won't end well.
"When it happens or how or anything else, I don't know," the billionaire Berkshire Hathaway chief says.
But he says he would not take a short position on bitcoin futures

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/buffett-says-cyrptocurrencies-will-almost-certainly-end-badly.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/buffett-says-cyrptocurrencies-will-almost-certainly-end-badly.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 11, 2018, 11:33:00 AM
Quote
Panic struck the Bitcoin industry this morning as South Korea became the latest in a growing line of countries to turn against the controversial digital currency.

Algeria, Morocco, Bolivia, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh and Nepal have all banned or outlawed the use of Bitcoin to varying degrees.

But South Korea’s imminent ban is seen as the most damaging yet, given the size of the South Korean economy and the popularity of Bitcoin there.

https://www.thememo.com/2018/01/11/south-korea-is-the-8th-country-to-ban-bitcoin-and-it-wont-be-the-last/
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 11, 2018, 11:46:55 AM
Quote
Panic struck the Bitcoin industry this morning as South Korea became the latest in a growing line of countries to turn against the controversial digital currency.

Algeria, Morocco, Bolivia, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh and Nepal have all banned or outlawed the use of Bitcoin to varying degrees.

But South Korea’s imminent ban is seen as the most damaging yet, given the size of the South Korean economy and the popularity of Bitcoin there.

https://www.thememo.com/2018/01/11/south-korea-is-the-8th-country-to-ban-bitcoin-and-it-wont-be-the-last/

All of the other countries listed presumably have unstable currencies, so no surprises there.  For a country with a well-developed economy like South Korea to ban crypto trading, it could set the precedent for other developed countries to follow.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 11, 2018, 12:11:10 PM
Quote
Panic struck the Bitcoin industry this morning as South Korea became the latest in a growing line of countries to turn against the controversial digital currency.

Algeria, Morocco, Bolivia, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh and Nepal have all banned or outlawed the use of Bitcoin to varying degrees.

But South Korea’s imminent ban is seen as the most damaging yet, given the size of the South Korean economy and the popularity of Bitcoin there.

https://www.thememo.com/2018/01/11/south-korea-is-the-8th-country-to-ban-bitcoin-and-it-wont-be-the-last/

All of the other countries listed presumably have unstable currencies, so no surprises there.  For a country with a well-developed economy like South Korea to ban crypto trading, it could set the precedent for other developed countries to follow.

China is pretty much locking down bitcoin too.

https://www.computerworld.com/article/3247324/financial-it/chinas-moves-against-cryptocurrencies-could-affect-blockchain-growth.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on January 16, 2018, 01:52:33 PM
The beginning of the end?
Quote
Bitcoin plunges—now down 47 percent from December peak [Updated]
Every major cryptocurrency has seen double-digit losses in the last 24 hours.


Bitcoin's value plunged on Tuesday, falling to $10,300—the lowest value the virtual currency has seen in 2018. Bitcoin's value is down almost 25 percent over the last 24 hours, and down 47 percent from December's all-time high of around $19,500.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/bitcoin-plunges-now-down-42-percent-from-december-peak/ (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/bitcoin-plunges-now-down-42-percent-from-december-peak/)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: jmoney74 on January 16, 2018, 03:40:19 PM
The beginning of the end?
Quote
Bitcoin plunges—now down 47 percent from December peak [Updated]
Every major cryptocurrency has seen double-digit losses in the last 24 hours.


Bitcoin's value plunged on Tuesday, falling to $10,300—the lowest value the virtual currency has seen in 2018. Bitcoin's value is down almost 25 percent over the last 24 hours, and down 47 percent from December's all-time high of around $19,500.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/bitcoin-plunges-now-down-42-percent-from-december-peak/ (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/bitcoin-plunges-now-down-42-percent-from-december-peak/)

watch out for the head and shoulder fake.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 16, 2018, 04:28:16 PM
All of the top 5 currencies have lost between 35-55% in value since their peak before rebounding slightly today.

The price of Bitcoin actually dipped below $10,000 briefly, which is lower than when I started this thread on Nov 29th.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 17, 2018, 10:47:06 AM
Man, wish I had a reliable way to short this crap.

Bitcoin Bulls Walloped by 50% Crash to Below $10,000

Bitcoin's extraordinary price collapse continued in European trading Wednesday, pulling the world's best-known cryptocurrency below the $10,000 mark and wiping billions from the market value of digital alternatives around the world.

Bitcoin prices broke through $10,000 today to trade at about $9,500, according to Coindesk. That marks a stunning 50% crash from highs achieved on Dec. 18.

The slump has not only dragged bitcoin to a six-week low, it's also pulled rivals such as Ripple and Ethereum more than 34% and 43% lower so far this week, taking more than $150 billion from the 'market cap" of the world's three largest cryptocurrencies in just three days, according to coinmarketcap data.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14451645/1/bitcoin-sheds-70-billion-this-week-as-global-cryptocurrencies-crumble.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo (https://www.thestreet.com/story/14451645/1/bitcoin-sheds-70-billion-this-week-as-global-cryptocurrencies-crumble.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 17, 2018, 06:15:51 PM
Not Bitcoin, but in other "alt" currency news...

BitConnect Investors Left in the Lurch as Token's Price Drops 90%
Quote
The price of BitConnect's controversial cryptocurrency has cratered following Tuesday's news that its lending and exchange operation is shutting down – and investors have been unable to sell their tokens despite claims the site would stay online this week.

The closure of BitConnect's lending and exchange platform was a major development given that its sales pitch prominently features the promised returns from lending out the currency, known as BCC, via the site. After the announcement, the price of BCC tanked on the few public markets on which the cryptocurrency trades.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, BCC was trading above $400 at the start of 2018, yet in the wake of Tuesday's bombshell, the price has fallen by more than 90%, trading at roughly $17.25 per coin as of press time

Akin to high-yield investment plans, BitConnect touted larger returns based on the amount loaned (users would deposit bitcoin and buy BCC in order to lend).

As might be expected, BitConnect drew comparisons to cryptocurrency investment schemes such as OneCoin, which was widely believed to be a pyramid scheme.

The allegation that BitConnect is a Ponzi scheme – in which earlier investors are effectively rewarded with the proceeds of new investors – gained traction in recent weeks as state regulators in the U.S. issued cease-and-desist letters to the outfit in connection with an initial coin offering.

I went to BitConnect's website and their High Yield Investment Plan promises returns of 0.25% PER DAY.  That's about 7.5% per month for a high yield "loan" to somebody.  Who would borrow at those rates?  Nobody outside of a check cashing business.

They also made extensive use of affiliate links to draw new "investors" in.

Basically, the founders of the currency created this buzz with high yield investments, drew people in rapidly with affiliate links, and pumped the price of the currency up before anonymously cashing their share out in Bitcoin.  Once the ponzi scheme ended, the price crashed by 90%.

Nobody knows who founded the company.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 18, 2018, 11:40:28 AM
Another fun bubble chart comparing Bitcoin to other manias.  Notice the dotcom bubble is barely a blip on this chart.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iubORDgEzeoo/v5/800x-1.png)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 02, 2018, 10:16:11 AM
A major bitcoin conference is no longer accepting bitcoin payments because the fees and lag have gotten so bad
Quote
For all the hype around bitcoin right now, it's easy to overlook an important fact: It doesn't actually work very well as a currency.

While interest in the digital currency has exploded over the last 12 months, pushing its price up from $800 to $15,000, the network has buckled under the strain. Users face fees of upwards of $30 on every transaction, which can take hours to process.

In fact, it has gotten so bad that even a major bitcoin conference has stopped accepting bitcoin payments for tickets altogether.

The North American Bitcoin Conference will be held in Miami on January 18-19, with last minute tickets going for $1,000 a pop. But would-be attendees can no longer pay for a ticket in bitcoin or in any other cryptocurrencies.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-conference-stops-accepting-bitcoin-network-fees-congestion-2018-1
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on February 02, 2018, 11:22:38 AM
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 02, 2018, 12:48:36 PM
The price of Bitcoin briefly touched $7,700 today which put it 60% below the peak value from only 6 weeks ago.

Several analysts are now predicting a price of $5,000 or lower.  If you had said that two weeks ago, the financial press would have scoffed at the idea, now not so much.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on February 05, 2018, 10:33:57 AM
Bitcoin/USD Bitstamp (BTC=:Exchange)

Last | 1:32:38 PM EST   Volume
6,957.0498 -1,230.45 (-15.0769%)   

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 05, 2018, 11:35:23 AM
Now that the price is below $7,000 I'm wondering how my friends that are "true believers" are processing this crash.  I've never tried to convince anybody outside of TI that this was a fool's gambit mainly because I don't want to waste time trying to persuade people that are unpersuadable.  This was a key indicator that we were in a bubble.  Back in November/December you could not have said anything to convince the crypto crowd that this was going to end badly.

I've had several associates ask why I wasn't investing in Bitcoin and I would simply say it was too volatile for me.  That seemed to be the only acceptable answer.  In their minds, I'm sure they viewed me as a coward or a fool, but anyway they couldn't argue with it.  In reality, going against the crowd is the farthest thing from cowardice.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 06, 2018, 11:34:13 AM
Bitcoin went below $6,000 today... tic, tic, tic

Bitcoin price will crash to zero, Nouriel Roubini says
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/bitcoin-price-will-crash-to-zero-nouriel-roubini-says.html

Carl Icahn: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are 'ridiculous' — 'I wouldn't touch that stuff'
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/carl-icahn-bitcoin-and-other-cryptocurrencies-are-ridiculous.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 08, 2018, 09:43:26 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/5cc4rk.jpg)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 01:47:47 AM
#HODL
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 09, 2018, 09:42:14 AM
So Halos are you expecting this crash to reach an 80% loss before bottoming?  It looks like that's what happened in 2014.

Also, looking at your second chart, the launch of Coinbase was the catalyst for the current run of Bitcoin.  It's what allowed so many clueless speculators to jump into the market without many technical hurdles to deal with.  It would be like the launch of the New York Stock Exchange for stock investors, or the advent of online trading in the 90's which contributed to the tech bubble.

The only way Bitcoin goes up from here is if new blood enters the market, creating more demand than supply.  Do you expect another market changing event like the launch of Coinbase to be the catalyst this time?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 10:34:03 AM
Bitcoin always crashes in January as the Chinese take money out before the Chinese New Year.

Coinbase is just the gateway drug...the real trading and volume takes place on exchanges such as Binance (where I trade alt coins).

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2zoj7ub.jpg)

There are so many angles to cryptocurrency, one of them is the ability for Chinese to launder their money via crypto. If you believe Bitcoin is going to zero, you also need to believe that capital controls in China will work.

A lot of people will FOMO hard again as the price climbs (as it is now) and panic buy. We'll blow past 20K this year no problem. It may go down again to 5K, or we could see 12K by Monday...who knows but the long term trend is not Bitcoin going to zero.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 10:39:03 AM
Here is a snapshot I took of whales playing around near the bottom last week on Binance. Order for 77 BTC near 7K

(http://i64.tinypic.com/sc3zom.jpg)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 10:52:36 AM
If you want to dabble your feet Liar Loan, there are lots of great companies forming in the new tech space. One of my favorites is Quantstamp (ticker QSP)...they are based in San Francisco, and audit smart contracts on the Blockchain (notably Ethereum and EOS based smart contracts). You have to pay for their services with their Token...Fiat -> QSP which is what gives it values. Once the QSP token is submitted to Quantstamp, they burn half of them, so the circulating supply is constantly going down. The cost of an audit is always the same amount in Fiat though 20K.

https://quantstamp.com/

https://twitter.com/quantstamp?lang=en

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: id_rather_be_racing on February 09, 2018, 10:56:50 AM
binance is great for alt coin trading, but is definitely not where the "real" trading is for btc and eth.  Bitfinex and GDAX/Coinbase have much higher trade volume. 

I've been scalp trading BTC/ETH on GDAX it's been quite good during this bear market.  Looking to go long again soon.

Halos, hit me up via pm. Good to see I'm not the only one in this space.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 09, 2018, 11:00:16 AM
There are so many angles to cryptocurrency, one of them is the ability for Chinese to launder their money via crypto. If you believe Bitcoin is going to zero, you also need to believe that capital controls in China will work.

A lot of people will FOMO hard again as the price climbs (as it is now) and panic buy. We'll blow past 20K this year no problem. It may go down again to 5K, or we could see 12K by Monday...who knows but the long term trend is not Bitcoin going to zero.

I don't necessarily think the value is going to zero.  It will continue to have value as a black market transaction system.  If world governments somehow find a way to de-anonymize the data, then I could see it going to zero because at that point the bad actors will move on to other "currencies".

However, as an investor I think Bitcoin has zero intrinsic value.  There's no cashflow and no value as a commodity.  Most buyers couldn't even explain what it is you own when purchasing bitcoin. 

It's also not scarce as the blockchain is open source and there are currently at least 2,000 cryptocurrencies in existence.  Bitcoin may not go to zero but 99.9% of the other currencies that people are speculating on will.

All that said, you could be right about the short term prospects.  If enough people believe the price will reach $20,000 this year, then it will.  The investing thesis for bitcoin is one of faith in its future prospects.

It's also possible that this is the end of the road as a lot of people got burned buying in December and lost their shorts in the recent crash.  How much remaining FOMO exists is hard to say.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 11:12:18 AM
binance is great for alt coin trading, but is definitely not where the "real" trading is for btc and eth.  Bitfinex and GDAX/Coinbase have much higher trade volume. 

I've been scalp trading BTC/ETH on GDAX it's been quite good during this bear market.  Looking to go long again soon.

Halos, hit me up via pm. Good to see I'm not the only one in this space.

GDAX has good volume, but Binance I think just surpassed everything to become the largest exchange in the world, and 2nd largest for BTC

Yeah I figured there had to be some Hodlers in here besides me...haha.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/ml5f7r.jpg)

I consolidated for the storm into just a few coins tokens:
QSP
POWR
Ethos
Ethereum
Achain

Will start to branch out again here shortly...gonna be a great year!
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 11:16:38 AM
There are so many angles to cryptocurrency, one of them is the ability for Chinese to launder their money via crypto. If you believe Bitcoin is going to zero, you also need to believe that capital controls in China will work.

A lot of people will FOMO hard again as the price climbs (as it is now) and panic buy. We'll blow past 20K this year no problem. It may go down again to 5K, or we could see 12K by Monday...who knows but the long term trend is not Bitcoin going to zero.

I don't necessarily think the value is going to zero.  It will continue to have value as a black market transaction system.  If world governments somehow find a way to de-anonymize the data, then I could see it going to zero because at that point the bad actors will move on to other "currencies".

However, as an investor I think Bitcoin has zero intrinsic value.  There's no cashflow and no value as a commodity.  Most buyers couldn't even explain what it is you own when purchasing bitcoin. 

It's also not scarce as the blockchain is open source and there are currently at least 2,000 cryptocurrencies in existence.  Bitcoin may not go to zero but 99.9% of the other currencies that people are speculating on will.

All that said, you could be right about the short term prospects.  If enough people believe the price will reach $20,000 this year, then it will.  The investing thesis for bitcoin is one of faith in its future prospects.

It's also possible that this is the end of the road as a lot of people got burned buying in December and lost their shorts in the recent crash.  How much remaining FOMO exists is hard to say.

I used to be like you Liar Loan...got into it in 2017 thankfully before the big run up and crash. I won't try to change your mind, but might want to consider getting into the space for coins/tokens other than Bitcoin if you're looking for Tokens etc with intrinsic value. Maybe this one you like? After a crash like this, it's the best time to get in...

https://powerledger.io/

http://www.afr.com/business/energy/blockchain-energy-trading-firm-power-ledger-rides-bitcoin-rollercoaster-20180206-h0v1wq

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 09, 2018, 11:22:59 AM
Halos, hit me up via pm. Good to see I'm not the only one in this space.

I also think it's good to have some alternate perspectives here.  Please keep posting your thoughts.

I'm always willing to learn and change my mind if new information comes along.

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on February 09, 2018, 11:38:10 AM
I thought it was good while it lasted. If you read my last post before the crash.

I say don’t get in yet. From what I read there will be more regulation on crypto currency. (South Korea, China, and US)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 09, 2018, 12:57:35 PM
Isn't all currency vaporware nowadays?

US Dollar not backed by anything anymore... I miss the days of trading goats for chickens... or sheep for wood. :)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 09, 2018, 01:11:59 PM
Isn't all currency vaporware nowadays?

US Dollar not backed by anything anymore... I miss the days of trading goats for chickens... or sheep for wood. :)

That's not true.  The full faith and credit of the US is extremely valuable.

Think of it this way.  If government currencies didn't exist and they were all privately created, would you rather use a currency created by Warren Buffett, or the currency of some 21 year old tech bro that lives in a filthy dorm in San Francisco?  Who would be more likely to dilute the currency for personal gain?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: momopi on February 09, 2018, 01:45:52 PM
Isn't all currency vaporware nowadays?
US Dollar not backed by anything anymore... I miss the days of trading goats for chickens... or sheep for wood. :)

Our current money system may go through some major changes when AI/automation replace majority of human workforce.  People will be under-deployed and be on universal basic income.  I have a suspicion that the basic income may not be paid entirely in dollars.  Part or whole might be stamp scrip or local social currency that expires after 60-180 days and must be spent (to prevent hoarding).

To me Bitcoin is like a fast moving roller coaster, versus real estate is a slower moving roller coaster.  Between the two I choose real estate because it's physical property.

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on February 09, 2018, 02:53:24 PM
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 02:57:22 PM
Well I won't get into the debate about whether it's replacing this or that...just that trading cryptocurrency is a lot of fun, and most definitely isn't going away anytime soon. The amount of liquidity on the buy and sell side is amazing for the top coins.

You don't have to buy a full Bitcoin, or Ethereum...you can put in $500 (or even less) to start on Coinbase, transfer that coin (or fraction of your coin) to Binance, and start trading the myriad of coins/tokens on the exchange. It really is a great hobby, with lots of characters and personalities in the space. And who knows, maybe you can make some money. The hardest part is selling as it's going up, as you don't want to miss out on further gains...and vice-versa, equally hard to buy when it's crashing...but that is the way to play it. Volatility is insane, but if you can do the opposite of what your emotions tell you, you will definitely do okay.

The best part is the community has as much fun going down as it does going up, and always manages to keep a sense of humor.

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: nosuchreality on February 09, 2018, 03:54:15 PM
Liar, i disagree with your analysis however not your conclusion.  Im not convinved bitcoin needs new blood to remain or gain.  Bitcoin is about circumventing government controls, taxes and and tracking.  Just like Amazon's original model was really driven by predatory pricing and tax avoidance by consumers.  Our airbnb, uber and lyft sidesteppjng city and county ordinances.

Are there enough countries and people wanting to move money without wating to prove its origin, deal with transfer rules, etc to keep it going

 For Joe Nonwhale, its really a question of who will gouge you more: the blackmarket, the banks or the government?



So Halos are you expecting this crash to reach an 80% loss before bottoming?  It looks like that's what happened in 2014.

Also, looking at your second chart, the launch of Coinbase was the catalyst for the current run of Bitcoin.  It's what allowed so many clueless speculators to jump into the market without many technical hurdles to deal with.  It would be like the launch of the New York Stock Exchange for stock investors, or the advent of online trading in the 90's which contributed to the tech bubble.

The only way Bitcoin goes up from here is if new blood enters the market, creating more demand than supply.  Do you expect another market changing event like the launch of Coinbase to be the catalyst this time?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on February 09, 2018, 05:12:03 PM
this is a must read article for anyone looking to understand the potential of blockchain and why things will never be the same again, bitcoin crash notwithstanding .

Beyond the Bitcoin Bubble

Yes, it’s driven by greed — but the mania for cryptocurrency could wind up building something much more important than wealth.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/magazine/beyond-the-bitcoin-bubble.html

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 08:51:33 PM
There are so many angles to cryptocurrency, one of them is the ability for Chinese to launder their money via crypto. If you believe Bitcoin is going to zero, you also need to believe that capital controls in China will work.

A lot of people will FOMO hard again as the price climbs (as it is now) and panic buy. We'll blow past 20K this year no problem. It may go down again to 5K, or we could see 12K by Monday...who knows but the long term trend is not Bitcoin going to zero.

I don't necessarily think the value is going to zero.  It will continue to have value as a black market transaction system.  If world governments somehow find a way to de-anonymize the data, then I could see it going to zero because at that point the bad actors will move on to other "currencies".

However, as an investor I think Bitcoin has zero intrinsic value.  There's no cashflow and no value as a commodity.  Most buyers couldn't even explain what it is you own when purchasing bitcoin. 

It's also not scarce as the blockchain is open source and there are currently at least 2,000 cryptocurrencies in existence.  Bitcoin may not go to zero but 99.9% of the other currencies that people are speculating on will.

All that said, you could be right about the short term prospects.  If enough people believe the price will reach $20,000 this year, then it will.  The investing thesis for bitcoin is one of faith in its future prospects.

It's also possible that this is the end of the road as a lot of people got burned buying in December and lost their shorts in the recent crash.  How much remaining FOMO exists is hard to say.

Liar, regarding Bitcoin, one thing to keep in mind is that every other coin is valued against the value of BTC. In fact, I cannot even buy the other alt-coins without first buying Bitcoin or Ethereum, and trading for the other alt-coins. Bitcoin dominance has dissipated a bit, but if you look at the charts of any other coin, it is a mirror image of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin crashes, they all crash and vice-versa on the way up.

That will change someday, and in other countries they can in-fact purchase other coins with Fiat (no need to trade BTC for them)...but as it stands the main value in Bitcoin is that you have to acquire it to trade for other coins.

You download Coinbase yet? Haha
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: aquabliss on February 09, 2018, 10:35:34 PM
Robinhood is going to have crypto trading soon, I signed up but they don’t tell you how long the wait is...  I’ll give it a try once it’s commission free on Robinhood.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 10:43:21 PM
Robinhood is going to have crypto trading soon, I signed up but they don’t tell you how long the wait is...  I’ll give it a try once it’s commission free on Robinhood.

Nice...yeah I heard about Robinhood...no fees is fantastic! Good luck, and remember to buy when the price is going down...not going up.

Keep us posted on your experience in crypto...you're in for a wild ride.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 09, 2018, 11:04:56 PM
Power Ledger is exploding right now...must be the news about them expanding into North America

https://medium.com/power-ledger/power-ledger-partners-with-helpanswers-to-bring-distributed-renewable-energy-trading-to-north-5e08c57c2009

Or their presentations in Davos

https://medium.com/power-ledger/dr-jemma-green-and-bill-tai-at-the-global-blockchain-business-forum-in-davos-783085b20bbb

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemmagreen/2018/01/24/just-add-crypto/#2b37366150a7

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2wnwnrq.jpg)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 09, 2018, 11:55:16 PM
Think of it this way.  If government currencies didn't exist and they were all privately created, would you rather use a currency created by Warren Buffett, or the currency of some 21 year old tech bro that lives in a filthy dorm in San Francisco?  Who would be more likely to dilute the currency for personal gain?

It wouldn't work that way in reality.

It would go back to the barter and trade days. Don't you watch post apocalyptic movies? Drinkable water would become the new bitcoin. :)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: id_rather_be_racing on February 10, 2018, 01:21:51 AM
Halos - FYI, Bittrex will be rolling out sometime this year USD trading pairs for their alt coins.  Until more exchanges offer this (Bitfinex doesn't count since US customers are banned from trading there), BTC will dictate how most coins/tokens move. 

I've actually started looking into assigning betas using BTC as the base.  You'll be surprised at the results (e.g. XRP behaves like 3x leverage).
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 10, 2018, 03:14:44 PM
Halos - FYI, Bittrex will be rolling out sometime this year USD trading pairs for their alt coins.  Until more exchanges offer this (Bitfinex doesn't count since US customers are banned from trading there), BTC will dictate how most coins/tokens move. 

I've actually started looking into assigning betas using BTC as the base.  You'll be surprised at the results (e.g. XRP behaves like 3x leverage).

Man you are beyond me...I don't even know what you're referring to. But would love to know...I'm curious whenever I hear the word "leverage"..haha.

Funny that you mention xrp...that was one of my best trades to date. I can remember the price going parabolic, and checking on my phone while running errands. I was starting to panic, and had to rush home to sell as I knew it was in total melt-up mode, and would reverse quickly
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 10, 2018, 03:27:10 PM
Looks like the market is ready to pull the trigger at 8K if it drops.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/2pyt7uv.jpg)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 12, 2018, 11:17:17 AM
Think of it this way.  If government currencies didn't exist and they were all privately created, would you rather use a currency created by Warren Buffett, or the currency of some 21 year old tech bro that lives in a filthy dorm in San Francisco?  Who would be more likely to dilute the currency for personal gain?

It wouldn't work that way in reality.

It would go back to the barter and trade days. Don't you watch post apocalyptic movies? Drinkable water would become the new bitcoin. :)

It has worked that way in the past.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_currency#Private_bank_notes

In the United States, the Free Banking Era lasted between 1837 and 1866, when almost anyone could issue paper money. States, municipalities, private banks, railroad and construction companies, stores, restaurants, churches and individuals printed an estimated 8,000 different types of money by 1860. If an issuer went bankrupt, closed, left town, or otherwise went out of business, the note would be worthless.

(https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/education/teachers/publications/symbols-on-american-money/_images/13_pittsfield-bank-private-note.jpg?la=en)(https://www.frbsf.org/images/currency/expansion/notes/s45.jpg)(https://www.banknotes.com/USLACBL1.JPG)(http://www.beeslife.com/currency/bb/3.jpg)(https://www.frbsf.org/images/currency/expansion/notes/s29.jpg)(https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/education/teachers/publications/symbols-on-american-money/_images/12_windham-bank-private-note.jpg?la=en)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 12, 2018, 11:40:14 AM
Think of it this way.  If government currencies didn't exist and they were all privately created, would you rather use a currency created by Warren Buffett, or the currency of some 21 year old tech bro that lives in a filthy dorm in San Francisco?  Who would be more likely to dilute the currency for personal gain?

It wouldn't work that way in reality.

It would go back to the barter and trade days. Don't you watch post apocalyptic movies? Drinkable water would become the new bitcoin. :)

It has worked that way in the past.


I don't think it would work that way if the meteor/zombie virus/nuclear warhead hit today.

A value system would need to be established locally/regionally/countrywide and that would have to be based on goods that have utility value initially.

A new paper currency system would not emerge until much later.

But I forget you don't watch much TV so you may not watch Fear The Walking Dead or any Mad Max movie. :)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 12, 2018, 11:54:00 AM
Think of it this way.  If government currencies didn't exist and they were all privately created, would you rather use a currency created by Warren Buffett, or the currency of some 21 year old tech bro that lives in a filthy dorm in San Francisco?  Who would be more likely to dilute the currency for personal gain?

It wouldn't work that way in reality.

It would go back to the barter and trade days. Don't you watch post apocalyptic movies? Drinkable water would become the new bitcoin. :)

It has worked that way in the past.


I don't think it would work that way if the meteor/zombie virus/nuclear warhead hit today.

A value system would need to be established locally/regionally/countrywide and that would have to be based on goods that have utility value initially.

A new paper currency system would not emerge until much later.

But I forget you don't watch much TV so you may not watch Fear The Walking Dead or any Mad Max movie. :)

I haven't seen either of those, but yeah in the event of societal breakdown either barter and trade, or precious metals would be the default.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on February 12, 2018, 02:19:18 PM
Following this crypto and blockchain craze for some time now and while I get the concept , still cant get my arms around why is it not taking off yet . 

I mean if this thing was really that useful,  you would see geeks and techies quietly installing this technology and putting it to work stealthily  just to get stuff done. I saw it happen all the time back int he 90s with internet tech. 

All I see is big announcements and launches and consortium this and consortium that and ICOs and what not - exactly the type of stuff that should not be happening and feels more like a "check the box " thing so many CTOs can make their bosses go away and tell their  boards, hey we are also cool with this stuff.

mining etc cost thousands of $$ in money and their is no intrinsic value - so unless someone , somewhere is getting very good returns on their investment with this thing, feels very flaky. 

I am not the type to be dismissive of new things automatically  but I would have liked to see more "underground " progress here in terms of applicability , which I just don't. Maybe someone can educate me.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on February 12, 2018, 02:52:46 PM
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 12, 2018, 08:51:32 PM
Following this crypto and blockchain craze for some time now and while I get the concept , still cant get my arms around why is it not taking off yet . 

I mean if this thing was really that useful,  you would see geeks and techies quietly installing this technology and putting it to work stealthily  just to get stuff done. I saw it happen all the time back int he 90s with internet tech. 

All I see is big announcements and launches and consortium this and consortium that and ICOs and what not - exactly the type of stuff that should not be happening and feels more like a "check the box " thing so many CTOs can make their bosses go away and tell their  boards, hey we are also cool with this stuff.

mining etc cost thousands of $$ in money and their is no intrinsic value - so unless someone , somewhere is getting very good returns on their investment with this thing, feels very flaky. 

I am not the type to be dismissive of new things automatically  but I would have liked to see more "underground " progress here in terms of applicability , which I just don't. Maybe someone can educate me.

Cryptography and distributed ledger technology is a lot more difficult to comprehend (let alone implement) than HTML :o

Also, I think we tend to look back at the internet as happening a lot faster than it actually did. When we could first access the internet (say 94-95) it was nothing more than a bunch of chat rooms. That was it, literally...chat rooms. That lasted for about 2-3 years before we saw better applications come online, such as fantasy baseball on the internet, etc. The dot-com boom followed. We are currently in the equivalent of 1994.

"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

- Paul Krugman 1998
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 13, 2018, 09:25:13 AM
"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

- Paul Krugman 1998

It's a good thing he has his job shilling for the Democrat party because he's made some atrocious calls over the years.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on February 13, 2018, 08:32:47 PM
Following this crypto and blockchain craze for some time now and while I get the concept , still cant get my arms around why is it not taking off yet . 

I mean if this thing was really that useful,  you would see geeks and techies quietly installing this technology and putting it to work stealthily  just to get stuff done. I saw it happen all the time back int he 90s with internet tech. 

All I see is big announcements and launches and consortium this and consortium that and ICOs and what not - exactly the type of stuff that should not be happening and feels more like a "check the box " thing so many CTOs can make their bosses go away and tell their  boards, hey we are also cool with this stuff.

mining etc cost thousands of $$ in money and their is no intrinsic value - so unless someone , somewhere is getting very good returns on their investment with this thing, feels very flaky. 

I am not the type to be dismissive of new things automatically  but I would have liked to see more "underground " progress here in terms of applicability , which I just don't. Maybe someone can educate me.

Cryptography and distributed ledger technology is a lot more difficult to comprehend (let alone implement) than HTML :o

Also, I think we tend to look back at the internet as happening a lot faster than it actually did. When we could first access the internet (say 94-95) it was nothing more than a bunch of chat rooms. That was it, literally...chat rooms. That lasted for about 2-3 years before we saw better applications come online, such as fantasy baseball on the internet, etc. The dot-com boom followed. We are currently in the equivalent of 1994.

"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

- Paul Krugman 1998


Yeah I get it, I was there using "pine" as my first email program (not sure many remember what that was). 

But internet did make things easier -- the protocol layer was the part which made things run smoothly and the application layer which came later made everything bloated and clunky (the grossest iteration of that is companies like facebook and google that are nothing but centralized aggregators)

Whereas bitcoin is all about the protocol layer itself and here is where I have problems -- the protocol  layer is an energy and efficiency hog.  maybe that will change.  but the need to update the entire blockchain each time which is what creates trust without centralized -- also limits its bandwidth. 

And as to Krugman, history is littered with people making wrong predictions all the time, he is just a good punching bag for people on the right .  Here are just a few a quick google search would reveal --


"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943


"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."

Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946


"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years."

Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955


"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."

Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977


"Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."

Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995


"Apple is already dead."

Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997


"Two years from now, spam will be solved."

Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 13, 2018, 10:23:44 PM
Following this crypto and blockchain craze for some time now and while I get the concept , still cant get my arms around why is it not taking off yet . 

I mean if this thing was really that useful,  you would see geeks and techies quietly installing this technology and putting it to work stealthily  just to get stuff done. I saw it happen all the time back int he 90s with internet tech. 

All I see is big announcements and launches and consortium this and consortium that and ICOs and what not - exactly the type of stuff that should not be happening and feels more like a "check the box " thing so many CTOs can make their bosses go away and tell their  boards, hey we are also cool with this stuff.

mining etc cost thousands of $$ in money and their is no intrinsic value - so unless someone , somewhere is getting very good returns on their investment with this thing, feels very flaky. 

I am not the type to be dismissive of new things automatically  but I would have liked to see more "underground " progress here in terms of applicability , which I just don't. Maybe someone can educate me.

Cryptography and distributed ledger technology is a lot more difficult to comprehend (let alone implement) than HTML :o

Also, I think we tend to look back at the internet as happening a lot faster than it actually did. When we could first access the internet (say 94-95) it was nothing more than a bunch of chat rooms. That was it, literally...chat rooms. That lasted for about 2-3 years before we saw better applications come online, such as fantasy baseball on the internet, etc. The dot-com boom followed. We are currently in the equivalent of 1994.

"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

- Paul Krugman 1998


Yeah I get it, I was there using "pine" as my first email program (not sure many remember what that was). 

But internet did make things easier -- the protocol layer was the part which made things run smoothly and the application layer which came later made everything bloated and clunky (the grossest iteration of that is companies like facebook and google that are nothing but centralized aggregators)

Whereas bitcoin is all about the protocol layer itself and here is where I have problems -- the protocol  layer is an energy and efficiency hog.  maybe that will change.  but the need to update the entire blockchain each time which is what creates trust without centralized -- also limits its bandwidth. 

And as to Krugman, history is littered with people making wrong predictions all the time, he is just a good punching bag for people on the right .  Here are just a few a quick google search would reveal --


"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943


"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."

Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946


"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years."

Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955


"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."

Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977


"Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."

Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995


"Apple is already dead."

Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997


"Two years from now, spam will be solved."

Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004

Funny quotes...haha.

Just like the internet, it all starts with something silly and evolves into much more
https://www.cryptokitties.co/

Not going to try and convince you about how awesome the future will be with the blockchain...haha...too much work, and I think you should come to your own conclusions.

And about Dr. Krugman, he should be considered a good punching bag for those of all political stripes.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on February 13, 2018, 10:32:23 PM
Update!

Lucky buying opportunity fellow Irvine residents!

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2uh1q4y.jpg)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: OCLuvr on March 08, 2018, 09:45:28 PM
What do we think now?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: aquabliss on March 08, 2018, 10:28:40 PM
Buy at $8.5k, sell at $11k.  Rinse, Wash, Repeat.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 09, 2018, 07:21:42 AM
The idea of the blockchain and shared ledgers is great... what is suspect is the mining of coins and how those who got in first... or even created the first bitcoin were able to do so with less effort than today.

My spider sense also tingles when we don't really know who invented bitcoin and how much currency they have to begin with.

And like IPOs, there are so many ICOs going on... it's hard to tell what is legit or not.

I like the idea of the blockchain... just not this currency tied to it.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on March 11, 2018, 07:45:52 PM
The idea of the blockchain and shared ledgers is great... what is suspect is the mining of coins and how those who got in first... or even created the first bitcoin were able to do so with less effort than today.

My spider sense also tingles when we don't really know who invented bitcoin and how much currency they have to begin with.

And like IPOs, there are so many ICOs going on... it's hard to tell what is legit or not.

I like the idea of the blockchain... just not this currency tied to it.

I did some digging on this for my own benefit and came to the conclusion that what makes the  blockchain secure is also what makes it inefficient

the so-called mathematical puzzles being solved are nothing but millions and millions of guessing games being played to get to the next hash outcome. But that onerous and laborious process  is also what makes blockchain " unhackable " for a single entity

If they were to make it more efficient to speed it up, then it is possible someone can find a way to optimize it (in other words " hack it ")  and right there the integrity of the entire blockchain collapses.

You cant have one without the other .  And this is why you have these computers wasting away power equivalent of small countries energy consumption 24 / 7. ....  it is simply not scalable without also making it open to hacking attacks . 
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 12, 2018, 08:08:25 AM
The idea of the blockchain and shared ledgers is great... what is suspect is the mining of coins and how those who got in first... or even created the first bitcoin were able to do so with less effort than today.

My spider sense also tingles when we don't really know who invented bitcoin and how much currency they have to begin with.

And like IPOs, there are so many ICOs going on... it's hard to tell what is legit or not.

I like the idea of the blockchain... just not this currency tied to it.

I did some digging on this for my own benefit and came to the conclusion that what makes the  blockchain secure is also what makes it inefficient

the so-called mathematical puzzles being solved are nothing but millions and millions of guessing games being played to get to the next hash outcome. But that onerous and laborious process  is also what makes blockchain " unhackable " for a single entity

If they were to make it more efficient to speed it up, then it is possible someone can find a way to optimize it (in other words " hack it ")  and right there the integrity of the entire blockchain collapses.

You cant have one without the other .  And this is why you have these computers wasting away power equivalent of small countries energy consumption 24 / 7. ....  it is simply not scalable without also making it open to hacking attacks .

From what I understand, the "puzzles" were easier to begin with. As people threw more processing power at them, from CPUs to GPUs and now FPGA and finally ASIC... and more people mined, the time to guess the new hash has to be recalculated so that the time to produce new coins doesn't exhaust the limit before it's due (there is supposed to be a cap of 21 million bitcoin by around 2024).

So my concern isn't the security of it, it's the question of the initial start of it and who benefited most. Almost like a Ponzi (or even MLM) where the people at the top can reap all the rewards.

While decentralized currency is ideal in that no one entity controls it, the other problem, as we have seen, is there is no system to keep volatile valuation in check. At least with stocks, value is based on the profitability and performance of a company combined with demand, but for bitcoin... it's just demand and that's scary to me. Maybe it's like futures or VIX (USC's currency) but that's also why I don't get into those things either.

What I'm more interested in is the use of blockchain technology as a database and how it can be applied in other areas.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on March 12, 2018, 11:20:10 AM
All aboard!

Quote
Bitcoin Price Will Hit $1 Million by 2020 Says John McAfee

How high can cryptocurrency mania go? Bitcoin bull and anti-virus software pioneer John McAfee has revised his earlier prediction with a claim that bitcoin's price could hit $1 million by the end of 2020.

On July 17, 2017, McAfee made a big claim. He predicted that 1 bitcoin will be worth $5,000 per token by the end of 2017. Bitcoin's price hit a high of $19,303.74 on December 17, 2017 and closed the year at $12,629.81.

Using the same prediction model, McAfee previously claimed that bitcoin will hit $500,000 by the end of 2020. Since BTC prices surged much faster in 2017 than he had projected, McAfee revised his claim upward to $1 million by 2020.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/mcafee-tracker-predicts-1-bitcoin1m-2020/ (https://www.investopedia.com/news/mcafee-tracker-predicts-1-bitcoin1m-2020/)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 12, 2018, 11:31:23 AM
All aboard!

Quote
Bitcoin Price Will Hit $1 Million by 2020 Says John McAfee

How high can cryptocurrency mania go? Bitcoin bull and anti-virus software pioneer John McAfee has revised his earlier prediction with a claim that bitcoin's price could hit $1 million by the end of 2020.

On July 17, 2017, McAfee made a big claim. He predicted that 1 bitcoin will be worth $5,000 per token by the end of 2017. Bitcoin's price hit a high of $19,303.74 on December 17, 2017 and closed the year at $12,629.81.

Using the same prediction model, McAfee previously claimed that bitcoin will hit $500,000 by the end of 2020. Since BTC prices surged much faster in 2017 than he had projected, McAfee revised his claim upward to $1 million by 2020.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/mcafee-tracker-predicts-1-bitcoin1m-2020/ (https://www.investopedia.com/news/mcafee-tracker-predicts-1-bitcoin1m-2020/)

He is one crazy dude.  I watched him in the Libertarian debates for president and he was definitely the comedic relief.  It doesn't surprise me at all that he is a Bitcoin enthusiast because he basically believes there should be no governments.  I think he was also wanted for murder in South America, but he claims it was all a big misunderstanding.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: jajji on March 12, 2018, 11:35:32 PM
McAfee is known to shill a different ICO every week.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 14, 2018, 10:08:28 AM
Buy at $8.5k, sell at $11k.  Rinse, Wash, Repeat.

Now's your chance.. The greatest bubble of all time just dropped below $8,500 on news that Google will no longer allow advertising of cryptocurrencies.  There is also rumor of more Chinese regulation coming down the pipe.

(https://www.allianzgi.com/-/media/allianzgi/globalagi/editorial/760xchart-bitcoin.jpg?la=en&hash=7098E1D0E22EC904A51B089CA68F6B783D127228)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 14, 2018, 10:25:54 AM
Bitcoin’s bubble behaviour

The hyperbolic price movements of bitcoin since its early 2009 inception have been very bubble-like in nature. When one compares bitcoin’s five-year price momentum (adjusted for inflation) against that of previous asset bubbles, bitcoin dwarfs the runners-up – the Mississippi bubble of 1720 and the Amsterdam Tulip Mania of 1637. And among more recent examples, bitcoin far surpasses the IT bubble of the 1990s and the Japan bubble of the 1980s.

(https://www.allianzgi.com/-/media/allianzgi/globalagi/editorial/760xchart-bitcoin.jpg?la=en&hash=7098E1D0E22EC904A51B089CA68F6B783D127228)

Moreover, bitcoin ticks all of the boxes that we consider to be essential criteria of any asset bubble:

-“New-era” thinking. Bitcoin is perceived to be an entirely new kind of currency and a monetary innovation in the internet age.

-Overtrading. Trading volumes have increased by almost fivefold in the last five years, according to BIS data.

-Ultra-easy monetary conditions. Accommodative policy is still in place globally, despite a series of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve.

-A lack of financial regulation. The “Wild West” bitcoin environment is only gradually being addressed by regulators around the world.

-The launch of related financial instruments. New products related to the bubbling asset class are popping up – from CBOE and CME futures contracts to the launch of “ICOs” (initial coin offerings).

-Rising leverage. Not only has private-sector leverage increased to record highs globally, but leveraged speculation in bitcoin is increasing.

-Swindles. Bitcoin has become the instrument of choice for many criminals, thanks to its ability to exist entirely outside of traditional banking channels.

-Significant overvaluation. Many other asset classes are pricey in today’s market, but bitcoin’s valuation seems to be without peer.

This brings us to a key question: what is the fair value of a bitcoin? In our view, its intrinsic value must be zero: a bitcoin is a claim on nobody – in contrast to, for instance, sovereign bonds, equities or paper money – and it does not generate any income stream. Admittedly, one could make the same argument about gold, but gold has been widely accepted by humankind as a thing of value for more than two-and-a-half thousand years – compared to less than a decade for bitcoin.

Not a currency – and not ESG-friendly

So if bitcoin is flawed enough not to be considered a proper asset class, can it at least serve the purpose of being a currency? We believe the answer is no for several reasons:

-First, given the high cost of conducting transactions in bitcoin, it could only be used for paying big-ticket items.

-Second, given bitcoin’s tremendous price volatility, it does not qualify as a numeraire – a commonly accepted benchmark used to assign value to goods and services.

-Third, considering all the arguments we have previously presented, it seems all but impossible to use bitcoin as a store of value.

https://www.allianzgi.com/en/home/insights/investment-themes-and-strategy/beyond-the-bitcoin-bubble
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 15, 2018, 10:56:37 AM
Congressional hearing on cryptocurrencies devolves into bitcoin bash fest
Quote
A House Financial Services subcommittee met Wednesday in what was supposed to be an overview of the cryptocurrency landscape. The two-hour hearing raised more questions than answers, and shined a light on some Congress members' deep skepticism around digital currency.

"Cryptocurrencies are a crock," Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) said to kick off his opening remarks. "They allow a few dozen men in my district to sit in their pajamas all day and tell their wives they're going to be millionaires."

Sherman accused the cryptocurrency community of using the term ICO to "lie to the public and convey the image that is like an IPO."

"They stole the intellectual property and trademark of legitimate investing and applied it to a fixed, fraudulent gambling scheme of no social benefit," Sherman said.

Huizenga referenced a soon-to-be published study of the ICO market by MIT professor Christian Catalini, which estimates that $270 million to $317 million of the money raised by coin offerings has "likely gone to fraud or scams."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/congressional-hearing-devolves-into-bitcoin-bash-fest.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on March 15, 2018, 12:25:06 PM
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on March 15, 2018, 12:30:47 PM
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

Just like I previously said in my previous posts regarding the crackdown.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: marmott on March 16, 2018, 12:47:12 PM
That for example: https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/84huks/i_just_discovered_that_i_owe_the_irs_50k_that_i/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/84huks/i_just_discovered_that_i_owe_the_irs_50k_that_i/)

Coinbase finally released a tax tool to help with filling taxes.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on March 16, 2018, 09:11:02 PM
Peter Thiel, or Brad Sherman....hmm, tough pick  ;D

Good overall interview...not just about BTC

Also, I posted the lucky buying opportunity for Irvine residents $8,880...you could of sold at 12K, and made a greater return than you have in the last year in the grand casino stock market.

Could go down further...but when it goes back up, you'll be kicking yourself for not buying

Is it the biggest bubble of all time?
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on March 16, 2018, 09:48:25 PM
Everyone is expecting BTC to test the 6K low again, but seems to be a lot of buyers not trying to time the bottom this time around.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/2dqqamg.jpg)

In February, everyone was expecting 5K, but was bought up by a mystery buyer who went on a spending spree, scooping up 400 million more worth of BTC at 6K (you will never be able to time the bottom).

http://queenwiki.com/blog/2018/02/mystery-billionaire-whale-buys-1billion-dollars-bitcoins/

Just today, BTC was about at the death cross, with 50 MDA crossing below the 200 MDA....until another mystery buyer shot up the price.

(http://i68.tinypic.com/so1r0p.jpg)

A lot of big money in crypto, but I guess Brad Sherman believes it's all a bunch of millennials in their pajamas
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on March 16, 2018, 09:59:22 PM
Buy at $8.5k, sell at $11k.  Rinse, Wash, Repeat.

Now's your chance.. The greatest bubble of all time just dropped below $8,500 on news that Google will no longer allow advertising of cryptocurrencies.  There is also rumor of more Chinese regulation coming down the pipe.

(https://www.allianzgi.com/-/media/allianzgi/globalagi/editorial/760xchart-bitcoin.jpg?la=en&hash=7098E1D0E22EC904A51B089CA68F6B783D127228)

Cryptocurrency trading has been banned in China since September 17'...which was the main conduit for laundering money out of China. Be careful what you root for fellow Irvine residents  ;)

Now you might think China hates blockchain and cryptocurrency, but the opposite is true. They are very proud of the blockchain and cryptocurrency teams innovating in their country, and even awarded Achain founder Tony Cui the top award for "Innovation and Growth in Technology" last year....which is a very big deal if you are wondering.

(http://i63.tinypic.com/34obnn7.jpg)

https://twitter.com/achainofficial?lang=en

Another of my favorite Chinese cryptocurrencies is NEO, which again is backed by the Chinese government and held up on a pedestal
https://twitter.com/neo_blockchain?lang=en

China only banned cryptocurrency trading for it's citizens (for the time being) to close down the money laundering game. Word is China is working with a number of crypto trading exchanges to allow trading in China only for it's citizens (closed door system).
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on March 17, 2018, 03:09:07 AM
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

What if I traded on an exchange outside the US jurisdiction (Asia) and have not given up any personal information to that exchange? How would they tax that? And what if I told you the exchange is the largest in the world, and could care less about the IRS or their tax policies?

Also, the post above about a reddit trader losing money overall but thinks he has to pay taxes on 50k is wrong. Capital gains and taxes work both ways....he will be able to write off the losses (capital loss deduction)  ;D
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on March 17, 2018, 07:08:13 AM
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

What if I traded on an exchange outside the US jurisdiction (Asia) and have not given up any personal information to that exchange? How would they tax that? And what if I told you the exchange is the largest in the world, and could care less about the IRS or their tax policies?

Also, the post above about a reddit trader losing money overall but thinks he has to pay taxes on 50k is wrong. Capital gains and taxes work both ways....he will be able to write off the losses (capital loss deduction)  ;D

I would say best of luck to you and cross your fingers that your exchange doesn't change their tune on reporting to the IRS retroactively and/or you never get audited  ;)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: nosuchreality on March 17, 2018, 07:11:48 AM
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

What if I traded on an exchange outside the US jurisdiction (Asia) and have not given up any personal information to that exchange? How would they tax that? And what if I told you the exchange is the largest in the world, and could care less about the IRS or their tax policies?

Also, the post above about a reddit trader losing money overall but thinks he has to pay taxes on 50k is wrong. Capital gains and taxes work both ways....he will be able to write off the losses (capital loss deduction)  ;D

No its right.  He spans the fiscal year so he has a large cap gain in 2017 that he has to pay for now and a pending large loss to claim in 2018 if he has future gains to cancel otherwise he will claim it in $3k chunks (or whatever the loss carry limit is now)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on March 18, 2018, 08:24:42 PM
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

What if I traded on an exchange outside the US jurisdiction (Asia) and have not given up any personal information to that exchange? How would they tax that? And what if I told you the exchange is the largest in the world, and could care less about the IRS or their tax policies?

Also, the post above about a reddit trader losing money overall but thinks he has to pay taxes on 50k is wrong. Capital gains and taxes work both ways....he will be able to write off the losses (capital loss deduction)  ;D

I would say best of luck to you and cross your fingers that your exchange doesn't change their tune on reporting to the IRS retroactively and/or you never get audited  ;)

The exchange doesn't have any of my personal information. Not my phone number, not my country of origin...not even my name. Nothing. How would they send any information to the IRS? And why would a foreign company send their customers information to the US IRS? They would lose their competitive edge, and at that point I might as well just trade on a US exchange.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on March 18, 2018, 08:26:43 PM
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

What if I traded on an exchange outside the US jurisdiction (Asia) and have not given up any personal information to that exchange? How would they tax that? And what if I told you the exchange is the largest in the world, and could care less about the IRS or their tax policies?

Also, the post above about a reddit trader losing money overall but thinks he has to pay taxes on 50k is wrong. Capital gains and taxes work both ways....he will be able to write off the losses (capital loss deduction)  ;D

No its right.  He spans the fiscal year so he has a large cap gain in 2017 that he has to pay for now and a pending large loss to claim in 2018 if he has future gains to cancel otherwise he will claim it in $3k chunks (or whatever the loss carry limit is now)

Ok you might be right, but if the trend continues downward, he'll definitely make it up next year with capital loss deduction. Makes sense given that 2017 was pretty much all upwards trend.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2018, 09:50:12 PM
@halos - the irs made a Swiss bank hand over records, I think it was credit suisse, can’t remember. I don’t know much about crypto, but I’m assuming some employees sit somewhere. The US govt could apply pressure to whatever country where the employees sit and force them to provide reporting to the irs (except maybe China and Russia).

What the US wants, it generally gets.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on March 23, 2018, 07:09:36 PM
Another lucky buying opportunity fellow Irvine residents!

(http://i68.tinypic.com/sdeiwm.jpg)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on March 29, 2018, 01:50:14 PM
The year to date chart makes it look like the crash has been with us from the start of this thread
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 29, 2018, 02:36:36 PM
@halos - the irs made a Swiss bank hand over records, I think it was credit suisse, can’t remember. I don’t know much about crypto, but I’m assuming some employees sit somewhere. The US govt could apply pressure to whatever country where the employees sit and force them to provide reporting to the irs (except maybe China and Russia).

What the US wants, it generally gets.

I don't think you can do that with blockchain. That's why it's trusted, it verifies that you are the owner of the transaction but also keeps you anonymous.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on March 29, 2018, 02:51:20 PM
@halos - the irs made a Swiss bank hand over records, I think it was credit suisse, can’t remember. I don’t know much about crypto, but I’m assuming some employees sit somewhere. The US govt could apply pressure to whatever country where the employees sit and force them to provide reporting to the irs (except maybe China and Russia).

What the US wants, it generally gets.

I don't think you can do that with blockchain. That's why it's trusted, it verifies that you are the owner of the transaction but also keeps you anonymous.

"The illusion of bitcoin anonymity will lead to its undoing."
- Mahatma Gandhi
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on March 29, 2018, 07:52:12 PM
@halos - the irs made a Swiss bank hand over records, I think it was credit suisse, can’t remember. I don’t know much about crypto, but I’m assuming some employees sit somewhere. The US govt could apply pressure to whatever country where the employees sit and force them to provide reporting to the irs (except maybe China and Russia).

What the US wants, it generally gets.

I don't think you can do that with blockchain. That's why it's trusted, it verifies that you are the owner of the transaction but also keeps you anonymous.

From what I know, if you keep everything in bitcoin / blockchain it is fine from an anonymous angle - but you lose it at the point of conversion into real world $$ and vice versa . 
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on March 30, 2018, 08:42:27 AM
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say, POP!!

Bitcoin is on track for its worst first quarter ever with over $114 billion wiped off its value

The price of bitcoin is on track for its worst first quarter performance ever.
The price of the cryptocurrency has fallen from $13,412.44 on January 1 to $7,266.07 on March 30, marking a more than 45 percent decline.
So far this quarter, $114.9 billion of market capitalization or value has been wiped off of bitcoin.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/30/bitcoin-price-is-on-track-for-its-worst-first-quarter-ever.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/30/bitcoin-price-is-on-track-for-its-worst-first-quarter-ever.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on April 11, 2018, 09:45:31 AM
I sure hope nobody bought because of the triple 8's in the price...

Even the slow pokes at BofA/ML are starting to get it:


Bitcoin, the Biggest Bubble in History, Is Popping
Quote
The greatest bubble in history is popping, according to Bank of America Corp.

The cryptocurrency is tracking the downfalls of the other massive asset-price bubbles in history less than one year out from its record, analysts lead by Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note Sunday.

The cryptocurrency has fallen more than 65 percent since peaking in December at $19,511. Bitcoin rose 2.2 percent to $6,750 on Monday.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i2s6LMOsw07g/v1/800x-1.png)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/bitcoin-seen-popping-like-the-greatest-bubbles-by-bofa
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on April 11, 2018, 09:55:17 AM
no bitcoin bulls left on this thread ?  whatever happened to "expanding your horizons" beyond the stock and fixed income markets ?

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: daedalus on April 11, 2018, 12:36:45 PM
The end is near.

Bitcoin peak close:  December 15, 2017

The shoeshine boys remain an uncanny contrarian indicator.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on May 07, 2018, 09:59:36 AM
Here is the message about bitcoin coming from the "Woodstock of Capitalism":

Warren Buffett:  Bitcoin is "rat poison".  He likens bitcoin demand to the tulip bulb mania in 17th century Holland.  The mystique behind the cryptocurrency has caused its price to surge.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-berkshire-buffett-cnbc/buffett-bashes-bitcoin-as-thriving-on-mystique-favours-stocks-idUSKBN1I813N

Charlie Munger
:  "To me, it's just dementia. It's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide you can't be left out."  (LL Note: LOL!)  Munger has also referred to bitcoin as "poison" and has called it "noxious".
http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/07/investing/warren-buffett-bitcoin/index.html

Bill Gates (BRK Board Member):  "I would short bitcoin if I could"
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/07/bill-gates-i-would-short-bitcoin-if-i-could.html

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on May 07, 2018, 10:55:15 AM
Charlie Munger[/b]:  "To me, it's just dementia. It's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide you can't be left out."  (LL Note: LOL!)  Munger has also referred to bitcoin as "poison" and has called it "noxious".
http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/07/investing/warren-buffett-bitcoin/index.html

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on May 09, 2018, 11:17:32 AM
This is not a parody...

Ex-NFL star Ricky Williams studies astrology – and it’s telling him to invest in Bitcoin
Quote
Williams has spent a chunk of his post-football life studying everything from holistic medicine to astrology and he tells CNBC Make It that the studying the cosmos actually informed his decision to invest in the recent cryptocurrency boom.

"When I look at things, I tend to look at astrology to get insight," says Williams, who tells CNBC Make It that his readings of astrological charts have pointed him in the direction of Bitcoin.

"The insight that got me interested in Bitcoin was the planet Uranus is about to enter into Taurus," says Williams.

Uranus, he explains, "is about revolution; it's about a change in the way we do things; it's about innovation." And Taurus "is about resources and finances," says Williams.

The revolutionary aspect of Uranus in astrology, combined with Taurus' focus on wealth and finance, is leading Williams to predict that, in the near future, "we're going to totally change the way we view and understand" finances, he says.

What's more, Pluto is passing through the astrological sign Capricorn which, Williams explains, "is about our structures, like banks for instance."

Williams bills himself as a professional astrologer, and he even has a website where you can book a personal astrology reading with the former NFL star (at $300 for a 90-minute session). Williams also turned his passion for holistic medicine into a post-NFL career with the launch of Real Wellness, a line of cannabis-based products, in March.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/09/astrology-is-telling-ex-nfl-star-ricky-williams-to-invest-in-bitcoin.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: nosuchreality on May 09, 2018, 12:28:52 PM
This is not a parody...

Ex-NFL star Ricky Williams studies astrology – and it’s telling him to invest in Bitcoin<snip>

Stepping off bitcoin for a moment have you looked at how much of our economy  and small business is actually driven by stuff like that?  Peer to peer selling, debt your way to wealth plans,  etc.  We all like to think Apple, Google and Facebook but it seems like that our information social platforms have really done is legitimize snake oil.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on May 09, 2018, 12:37:26 PM
This is not a parody...

Ex-NFL star Ricky Williams studies astrology – and it’s telling him to invest in Bitcoin
Quote
Williams has spent a chunk of his post-football life studying everything from holistic medicine to astrology and he tells CNBC Make It that the studying the cosmos actually informed his decision to invest in the recent cryptocurrency boom.

"When I look at things, I tend to look at astrology to get insight," says Williams, who tells CNBC Make It that his readings of astrological charts have pointed him in the direction of Bitcoin.

"The insight that got me interested in Bitcoin was the planet Uranus is about to enter into Taurus," says Williams.

Uranus, he explains, "is about revolution; it's about a change in the way we do things; it's about innovation." And Taurus "is about resources and finances," says Williams.

The revolutionary aspect of Uranus in astrology, combined with Taurus' focus on wealth and finance, is leading Williams to predict that, in the near future, "we're going to totally change the way we view and understand" finances, he says.

What's more, Pluto is passing through the astrological sign Capricorn which, Williams explains, "is about our structures, like banks for instance."

Williams bills himself as a professional astrologer, and he even has a website where you can book a personal astrology reading with the former NFL star (at $300 for a 90-minute session). Williams also turned his passion for holistic medicine into a post-NFL career with the launch of Real Wellness, a line of cannabis-based products, in March.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/09/astrology-is-telling-ex-nfl-star-ricky-williams-to-invest-in-bitcoin.html?recirc=taboolainternal

when was the last time he was checked for CTE?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on May 09, 2018, 12:55:00 PM
This is not a parody...

Ex-NFL star Ricky Williams studies astrology – and it’s telling him to invest in Bitcoin<snip>

Stepping off bitcoin for a moment have you looked at how much of our economy  and small business is actually driven by stuff like that?  Peer to peer selling, debt your way to wealth plans,  etc.  We all like to think Apple, Google and Facebook but it seems like that our information social platforms have really done is legitimize snake oil.

This is a good topic...

I would even include driving for Uber in that category.  Once you factor in vehicle wear-and-tear, maintenance, and gas drivers are making less than minimum wage in many cases.

Another area that you mentioned - peer to peer selling - is incredibly prevalent with stay at home moms.  They guilt their friends into coming to "parties" to buy their wares, but in reality they are working for tiny commissions or even just free merchandise.  It barely qualifies as a side income.

There seem to be more and more businesses built on the concept of convincing people to work for almost free, while all of the revenue and economic benefits accrue to the sponsoring corporation. 

Even franchise opportunities are a lot like this where they expect you to put in long hours every week with no guarantee of success, but the franchise company simply collects the franchise fees + marketing fees, etc. with really no skin in the game.  Of course, they provide some training and ongoing support, but their revenues are guaranteed while the franchisee takes all the risk.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 09, 2018, 06:50:06 PM
This is not a parody...

Ex-NFL star Ricky Williams studies astrology – and it’s telling him to invest in Bitcoin<snip>

Stepping off bitcoin for a moment have you looked at how much of our economy  and small business is actually driven by stuff like that?  Peer to peer selling, debt your way to wealth plans,  etc.  We all like to think Apple, Google and Facebook but it seems like that our information social platforms have really done is legitimize snake oil.

This is a good topic...

I would even include driving for Uber in that category.  Once you factor in vehicle wear-and-tear, maintenance, and gas drivers are making less than minimum wage in many cases.

Another area that you mentioned - peer to peer selling - is incredibly prevalent with stay at home moms.  They guilt their friends into coming to "parties" to buy their wares, but in reality they are working for tiny commissions or even just free merchandise.  It barely qualifies as a side income.

There seem to be more and more businesses built on the concept of convincing people to work for almost free, while all of the revenue and economic benefits accrue to the sponsoring corporation. 

Even franchise opportunities are a lot like this where they expect you to put in long hours every week with no guarantee of success, but the franchise company simply collects the franchise fees + marketing fees, etc. with really no skin in the game.  Of course, they provide some training and ongoing support, but their revenues are guaranteed while the franchisee takes all the risk.

I wonder how it works with Uber and Lyft when gas prices are going up like they have been for the past several months.  Does Uber/Lyft increase the cost and then pass along the fraction to the drivers or do the driver just eat the higher cost of gas?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: inv0ke-epipen on May 09, 2018, 07:34:13 PM
This is not a parody...

Ex-NFL star Ricky Williams studies astrology – and it’s telling him to invest in Bitcoin<snip>

Stepping off bitcoin for a moment have you looked at how much of our economy  and small business is actually driven by stuff like that?  Peer to peer selling, debt your way to wealth plans,  etc.  We all like to think Apple, Google and Facebook but it seems like that our information social platforms have really done is legitimize snake oil.

This is a good topic...

I would even include driving for Uber in that category.  Once you factor in vehicle wear-and-tear, maintenance, and gas drivers are making less than minimum wage in many cases.

Another area that you mentioned - peer to peer selling - is incredibly prevalent with stay at home moms.  They guilt their friends into coming to "parties" to buy their wares, but in reality they are working for tiny commissions or even just free merchandise.  It barely qualifies as a side income.

There seem to be more and more businesses built on the concept of convincing people to work for almost free, while all of the revenue and economic benefits accrue to the sponsoring corporation. 

Even franchise opportunities are a lot like this where they expect you to put in long hours every week with no guarantee of success, but the franchise company simply collects the franchise fees + marketing fees, etc. with really no skin in the game.  Of course, they provide some training and ongoing support, but their revenues are guaranteed while the franchisee takes all the risk.

I wonder how it works with Uber and Lyft when gas prices are going up like they have been for the past several months.  Does Uber/Lyft increase the cost and then pass along the fraction to the drivers or do the driver just eat the higher cost of gas?

Uber likely doesn't have to do anything unless their supply of drivers becomes too low to service the demand for rides. If gas prices cause drivers to stop, then Uber would likely respond, potentially by raising driver payments, but there are other levers they can pull to stimulate supply. For example they can run promotions for new drivers with guaranteed hourly rates, run advertising that distorts the true cost of driving vs what is paid to attract new naive drivers, or use surge pricing (effectively on demand fare increases when supply of drivers doesn't match demand for rides).

Uber definitely leverages the failure of many drivers to adequately plan for the cost of driving. So far Uber has managed to get a stream of drivers like this and so with the driver supply high, prices stay down.

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: nosuchreality on May 10, 2018, 09:37:02 AM

Uber likely doesn't have to do anything unless their supply of drivers becomes too low to service the demand for rides. If gas prices cause drivers to stop, then Uber would likely respond, potentially by raising driver payments, but there are other levers they can pull to stimulate supply. For example they can run promotions for new drivers with guaranteed hourly rates, run advertising that distorts the true cost of driving vs what is paid to attract new naive drivers, or use surge pricing (effectively on demand fare increases when supply of drivers doesn't match demand for rides).

Uber definitely leverages the failure of many drivers to adequately plan for the cost of driving. So far Uber has managed to get a stream of drivers like this and so with the driver supply high, prices stay down.



Humans are very bad at long term.   If you game the  Uber and other  systems you can probably make money.  If you fit it in on of an otherwise commute, maybe.  If you treat it as a job, IMHO, it really seems like what they're doing is allowing you to do a bunch of free or near free labor to convert your capital asset (vehicle) into immediate cash.  Eventually your capital asset is depleted.

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on May 14, 2018, 12:31:03 PM
Those Lambos parked at the bitcoin conference are just a promotion
Quote
Three Lamborghinis parked Monday morning near a major cryptocurrency conference in New York did not belong to investors in bitcoin, or any other digital coin.

Instead, two of the luxury cars were from Broadway Supercars, a New Jersey-based car rental, and one belonged to company founder John Nouri.

He said he was hired to park the cars for about five hours Monday morning on Sixth Ave just outside a Hilton hotel, where more than 8,500 people are expected to attend CoinDesk's Consensus conference that kicked off Monday.

(https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/05/14/105206534-Unknown.530x298.jpg?v=1526316552)

(https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/05/14/105206550-image2.530x298.jpg?v=1526316976)

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/those-lambos-parked-at-the-bitcoin-conference-are-just-a-promotion.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on May 18, 2018, 09:25:18 AM
Bitcoin rally this week fails to materialize as New York conference brings more hype than substance
Quote
"Many repeat attendees commented that the panels felt more like commercials than substantive discussions, which was not the case last year," said Fundstrat digital currency analyst Alex Kern.

In previous years, bitcoin had rallied significantly around a New York City blockchain conference called Consensus. Between May 22 and 24 when it was held last year, prices jumped 69 percent, Fundstrat said. Prices popped another 138 percent in the two months after the conference.

In a note to clients published ahead of this year's event, Fundstrat predicted a bump "likely greater" than in previous years "given dramatic jump in attendance plus the fact BTC is down YTD."

Instead, prices stayed in the low $8,000 range throughout the week, according to CoinDesk. Bitcoin hit a high of $8,835 last week before blockchain enthusiasts flocked to New York. The cryptocurrency has dropped more than 40 percent this year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/18/bitcoin-rally-fails-to-materialize-after-nyc-conferences.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on May 25, 2018, 12:36:39 PM
I remember when institutional investors created funds to invest in rare collectible coins in the late 80's.  That didn't end well either.

As bitcoin plunges, mega-bull Tom Lee stands by his $25,000 target
Quote
On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency plunged below $8,000 and traded at around $7,500, essentially giving up most of the gains bitcoin had managed to make from mid-April to early May after hitting 2018 lows.

But among the big catalysts that will boost the crypto space, Lee is keeping an eye on institutional investors.

"I think institutional investors have gained a lot of interest, and they haven't really come into crypto yet because there is still some regulatory uncertainty," he said on CNBC's "Futures Now." "But that sort of ultimate allocation into crypto as an asset class is going to be a powerful reason why bitcoin rallies."

With Wednesday's drop, bitcoin is now down 41 percent this year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/23/as-bitcoin-plunges-mega-bull-tom-lee-stands-by-his-25000-target.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 25, 2018, 12:46:24 PM
I remember when the majors started putting together Unit investment trusts to invest in dot-com IPO's...right around March of 2000...that also did not end well for all involved.

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on June 18, 2018, 12:03:04 PM
So price manipulation?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/technology/bitcoin-price-manipulation.html

This is why unregulated currency is dangerous.

Tulips anyone?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on June 18, 2018, 12:06:16 PM
I'm surprised that bitcoin hasn't completely collapsed...still trading about 3x the value pre-crazy spike.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on June 24, 2018, 03:16:44 PM
I'm surprised that bitcoin hasn't completely collapsed...still trading about 3x the value pre-crazy spike.

It is a strange phenomenon, but watching spikes like this, it's clear very big money is involved. 1 hour candle....but the price spike actually took place in a few minutes this morning.

(http://i65.tinypic.com/35db8rc.jpg)

BTW, this "call" about BTC dying is not a new thing. Add this thread to the growing list of obituaries over the last 10 years.
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/

BTC will really die when the Chinese, and every other person on the planet no longer has a need to move capital in stealth out of their monetary "system"
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 09, 2018, 03:42:15 PM
BTW, this "call" about BTC dying is not a new thing. Add this thread to the growing list of obituaries over the last 10 years.
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/

Well, considering Bitcoin peaked about one month after I started this thread, and then dropped precipitously by 70%, I think I got the call right.  Hopefully, it prevented somebody that was reading from making a horrible mistake.

I personally know about 10 people in my personal life that were caught up in the Bitcoin mania, and none of them wants to talk about Bitcoin anymore... NONE OF THEM.  Gee, what happened to all this future talk about revolutionizing currency??  It was all a big ponzi scheme just like every other bubble that we've had over the past 20 years.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 10, 2018, 07:23:10 AM
Forget Bitcoin... it's all about BigMacCoin:

(https://www.whio.com/rf/image_lowres/Pub/p9/DaytonDailyNews/2018/08/02/Images/newsEngin.22681883_Big-Mac-MacCoin.jpg)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 15, 2018, 05:05:57 PM
The inevitable outcome...

Crypto market crash prompts suicide concerns

Bitcoin is down 57% in 2018 so far, ether is down 67%, bitcoin cash (BCH) is down 80%, stellar lumens (XLM) is down 60%, and ripple (XRP) is down an eye-popping 87%.



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-market-crash-prompts-suicide-concerns-135248250.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-market-crash-prompts-suicide-concerns-135248250.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 20, 2018, 03:03:10 PM
After the bitcoin boom: hard lessons for cryptocurrency investors

SAN FRANCISCO — Pete Roberts of Nottingham, England, was one of the many risk-takers who threw their savings into cryptocurrencies when prices were going through the roof last winter.

Now, eight months later, the $23,000 he invested in several digital tokens is worth about $4,000, and he is clearheaded about what happened.

"I got too caught up in the fear of missing out and trying to make a quick buck," he said this week. "The losses have pretty much left me financially ruined."
..............................................................
Kim Hyon-jeong, a 45-year-old teacher and mother of one who lives on the outskirts of Seoul, said she put about 100 million won, or $90,000, into cryptocurrencies last fall. She drew on savings, an insurance policy and a $25,000 loan. Her investments are now down about 90 percent.

"I thought that cryptocurrencies would be the one and only breakthrough for ordinary hard-working people like us," she said. "I thought my family and I could escape hardship and live more comfortably but it turned out to be the other way around."
....................................................................
Tony Yoo, 26, a financial analyst in Los Angeles, invested more than $100,000 of his savings last fall. At their lowest point, his holdings dropped almost 70 percent in value.

Twitter is also filled with complaints, like the one from a user named @Notsofrugaljoey, who wrote: "It's really hard to stomach losing all my hard earned money. Just broke down and cried."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/20/after-the-bitcoin-boom-hard-lessons-for-cryptocurrency-investors.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on August 20, 2018, 03:48:35 PM
After the bitcoin boom: hard lessons for cryptocurrency investors

Kim Hyon-jeong, a 45-year-old teacher and mother of one who lives on the outskirts of Seoul, said she put about 100 million won, or $90,000, into cryptocurrencies last fall. She drew on savings, an insurance policy and a $25,000 loan. Her investments are now down about 90 percent.

"I thought that cryptocurrencies would be the one and only breakthrough for ordinary hard-working people like us," she said. "I thought my family and I could escape hardship and live more comfortably but it turned out to be the other way around."

easy access to $90,000 in cash to blow on cryptos....i wouldn't exactly call that hardship
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Paris on August 20, 2018, 10:38:48 PM
After the bitcoin boom: hard lessons for cryptocurrency investors

SAN FRANCISCO — Pete Roberts of Nottingham, England, was one of the many risk-takers who threw their savings into cryptocurrencies when prices were going through the roof last winter.

Now, eight months later, the $23,000 he invested in several digital tokens is worth about $4,000, and he is clearheaded about what happened.

"I got too caught up in the fear of missing out and trying to make a quick buck," he said this week. "The losses have pretty much left me financially ruined."
..............................................................
Kim Hyon-jeong, a 45-year-old teacher and mother of one who lives on the outskirts of Seoul, said she put about 100 million won, or $90,000, into cryptocurrencies last fall. She drew on savings, an insurance policy and a $25,000 loan. Her investments are now down about 90 percent.

"I thought that cryptocurrencies would be the one and only breakthrough for ordinary hard-working people like us," she said. "I thought my family and I could escape hardship and live more comfortably but it turned out to be the other way around."
....................................................................
Tony Yoo, 26, a financial analyst in Los Angeles, invested more than $100,000 of his savings last fall. At their lowest point, his holdings dropped almost 70 percent in value.

Twitter is also filled with complaints, like the one from a user named @Notsofrugaljoey, who wrote: "It's really hard to stomach losing all my hard earned money. Just broke down and cried."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/20/after-the-bitcoin-boom-hard-lessons-for-cryptocurrency-investors.html

Proof that "get Rich Quick" schemes never work. slow and steady is the best route to wealth for most. Tortoise usually wins the race over that hare...
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 21, 2018, 07:03:49 AM
So did all the bitcoins crash? Or just the ones outside of Irvine?

:)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: daedalus on August 21, 2018, 10:06:45 AM
Quote
But Mr. Yoo is still a big believer in the idea that these tokens can provide a new way to transact online, without the big corporate middlemen we rely on today. Many of the groups that raised money last year are still working on the products they promised, with lots of serious engineers drawn to the projects.

"There's just so much more behind this new wave of technology and innovation that I'm sure will take over our society in due time," Mr. Yoo said.

With prices down so much, he said he was actually looking to put more money into the markets.


That is so adorable.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 21, 2018, 10:46:21 AM
I ran out an bought one...

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: momopi on August 21, 2018, 01:35:20 PM
I recall watching FTV (Fashion TV) channel on my android box and saw advertisement for "FTV Coin".

https://icobench.com/ico/ftv-coin-deluxe


Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: lnc on August 21, 2018, 03:24:36 PM
I recall watching FTV (Fashion TV) channel on my android box and saw advertisement for "FTV Coin".


Few days ago it was wearing stretch jeans and now it's watching fashion TV, what have you done to our NRA survivalist. :)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: momopi on August 21, 2018, 03:49:24 PM
I recall watching FTV (Fashion TV) channel on my android box and saw advertisement for "FTV Coin".


Few days ago it was wearing stretch jeans and now it's watching fashion TV, what have you done to our NRA survivalist. :)

Due to the summer heat, I either stay home to watch Korean melodrama and 1 million dance studio videos, or enjoy free AC at the mall while I shop for discounted clothing.  As soon as the weather cools I'll be back in the forests, attending classes on foraging, beer and cheese making:

http://www.urbanoutdoorskills.com/schedule.html

Note that due to Summer heat many outdoor classes are currently held indoors, which kinda defeats the purpose.


p.s.  I strongly dislike Wayne LaPierre.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Happiness on August 30, 2018, 10:54:46 AM
Venezuela's cryptocurrency Petro is nowere to be found:

https://in.reuters.com/article/cryptocurrency-venezuela/special-report-in-venezuela-new-cryptocurrency-is-nowhere-to-be-found-idINKCN1LF18G

After Venezuela's socialist government destroyed the economy and decimated its currency (the bolivar), the socialists announced in February that Venezuela would be switching to cryptocurrency. Despite the fact that after six months this cryptocurrency (the petro) is nowhere to be found, the socialists still insist they will start paying debts and government pensions in cryptocurrency.

This is interesting because Venezuela's biggest creditor is China which takes a dim view of cryptocurrency (trade in bitcoin is banned in the PRC). Soon all that sweet Venezuelan crude will belong to the PRC. This is why we must discourage further PRC investment in the Americas.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: meccos12 on September 02, 2018, 06:32:55 PM
Isnt this all about timing?  There are many that are still profitable even at todays prices.  If you bought greater than 1 year ago, then you are still looking really good. 
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Halos on September 04, 2018, 09:51:59 PM
Isnt this all about timing?  There are many that are still profitable even at todays prices.  If you bought greater than 1 year ago, then you are still looking really good.

They only heard about Bitcoin in December 17'...to them it's a disaster  ;D
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 05, 2018, 08:01:58 AM
Ahh... Halos is back.

After doing some more reading, one of the biggest problems with cryptocurrency are the exchanges and the wallets. There have been major hacks involving losses of millions/billions of dollars at different levels either by modifying the transactions before the hashes can be guessed, manipulating the valuation, copying keys, stealing wallet accounts etc etc.

And unlike banks where you have FDIC to protect your money, I'm not sure if there is some insurance system in place for cryptocurrency owners.

Just stick to buying in Eastwood.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on September 05, 2018, 11:47:48 AM
Isnt this all about timing?  There are many that are still profitable even at todays prices.  If you bought greater than 1 year ago, then you are still looking really good.

They only heard about Bitcoin in December 17'...to them it's a disaster  ;D

This is a valid point.  I remember one of my friends recommending Bitcoin to me when it had reached $3,000.  If I had listened to him, I would still be up over 100%.

Yet, the problem is I'm not going to buy something based on pure speculation.  I have to be able to quantify the risk in my mind, and a 100% return on Bitcoin is actually terrible when you adjust for the risk involved.

The volatility is off the charts, the risk of hacks is ever-present, there are tons of scammers out there, and there's no guarantee that Bitcoin will ever have a practical application beyond black market transactions.

I could also make a 100% return on penny stocks with absolutely no fundamentals backing them, but I would never invest my savings in something like that.

And then there are the taxes.

I was talking to another friend over Labor Day and he was daytrading bitcoin during the run up.  The problem now is his tax situation is a complete nightmare.  It took him 40 hours of tedious labor to download the transactions and put them into a spreadsheet that was readable for his accountant.  Time lost is also money lost.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on September 11, 2018, 01:27:32 PM
Here's a guy that studied Bitcoin for years before investing... and he still lost it all.
Quote
Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged

Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017. He was stunned when that turned into $500,000 in just one month.

The dream didn't last for Russell, who works as a property developer in the United Kingdom, buying homes and fixing them up. The price of Bitcoin surpassed $20,000 in December before collapsing. It now trades at $6,300.

Russell attempted to mitigate his losses by shifting money from bitcoin (XBT) to an offshoot called Bitcoin Cash and other cryptocurrencies including Ethereum and Ripple. But that didn't work, and Russell says the paper losses on his initial investment have reached 96%.

Before he first invested, Russell spent years tracking bitcoin and studying blockchain, the technology underpinning digital currencies. He said the learning process was like solving the plot of a murder mystery.

Despite the loss, he remains a committed investor.

"I have to be hopeful about something," he said. "I need to keep my mind occupied, because when I just focused on the money I lost, it destroyed me mentally and emotionally."

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/11/investing/bitcoin-crash-victim/index.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: meccos12 on September 11, 2018, 02:01:19 PM
Here's a guy that studied Bitcoin for years before investing... and he still lost it all.
Quote
Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged

Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017. He was stunned when that turned into $500,000 in just one month.

The dream didn't last for Russell, who works as a property developer in the United Kingdom, buying homes and fixing them up. The price of Bitcoin surpassed $20,000 in December before collapsing. It now trades at $6,300.

Russell attempted to mitigate his losses by shifting money from bitcoin (XBT) to an offshoot called Bitcoin Cash and other cryptocurrencies including Ethereum and Ripple. But that didn't work, and Russell says the paper losses on his initial investment have reached 96%.

Before he first invested, Russell spent years tracking bitcoin and studying blockchain, the technology underpinning digital currencies. He said the learning process was like solving the plot of a murder mystery.

Despite the loss, he remains a committed investor.

"I have to be hopeful about something," he said. "I need to keep my mind occupied, because when I just focused on the money I lost, it destroyed me mentally and emotionally."

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/11/investing/bitcoin-crash-victim/index.html

He actually lost significantly more by selling bitcoin and buying bitcoin cash, ethereum and ripple. 
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on September 12, 2018, 10:18:03 AM
Crypto’s 80% Plunge Is Now Worse Than the Dot-Com Crash
Quote
The Great Crypto Crash of 2018 looks more and more like one for the record books.

As virtual currencies plumbed new depths on Wednesday, the MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 10 Index extended its collapse from a January high to 80 percent. The tumble has now surpassed the Nasdaq Composite Index’s 78 percent peak-to-trough decline after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.

Like their predecessors during the Internet-stock boom almost two decades ago, cryptocurrency investors who bet big on a seemingly revolutionary technology are suffering a painful reality check, particularly those in many secondary tokens, so-called alt-coins.

“It just shows what a massive, speculative bubble the whole crypto thing was -- as many of us at the time warned,” said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst in London for Markets.com, a foreign-exchange trading platform.

Crypto bulls dismiss negative comparisons to the dot-com era by pointing to the Nasdaq Composite’s recovery to fresh highs 15 years later, and to the internet’s enormous impact on society.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-12/crypto-s-crash-just-surpassed-dot-com-levels-as-losses-reach-80
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on October 18, 2018, 11:02:33 AM
This is why crypto is such a scam.  Even its parents don't really understand it...

The Prophets of Cryptocurrency Survey the Boom and Bust
Inside the ongoing argument over whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the blockchain are transforming the world.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/22/the-prophets-of-cryptocurrency-survey-the-boom-and-bust (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/22/the-prophets-of-cryptocurrency-survey-the-boom-and-bust)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on October 18, 2018, 11:45:51 AM
Nouriel Roubini s testimony to Congress is worth a read

I generally am skeptical of him , but his logic is very sound in this case  — Crypto Hasnt really done anything More than put a value on “how much would anonymity in electronic financial transactions be worth ?”  Otherwise , a complete scam benefiting a select few ....

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: meccos12 on October 24, 2018, 03:26:32 PM
Nouriel Roubini s testimony to Congress is worth a read

I generally am skeptical of him , but his logic is very sound in this case  — Crypto Hasnt really done anything More than put a value on “how much would anonymity in electronic financial transactions be worth ?”  Otherwise , a complete scam benefiting a select few ....

I follow him on twitter and some of his claims seem to be very off. 

If he thinks that crypto does nothing more than put a value on "anonymity in electronic transactions", then he is wrong and has overly simplified cryptos. 

I am not an expert in cryptos in any way, however even I can tell you cryptos do more than that.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Happiness on October 29, 2018, 09:36:12 AM
A small Canadian bitcoin exchange hacked:

https://www.ccn.com/newsflash-canadian-bitcoin-exchange-hacked-says-all-funds-are-gone/
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on October 29, 2018, 09:45:05 AM
Nouriel Roubini s testimony to Congress is worth a read

I generally am skeptical of him , but his logic is very sound in this case  — Crypto Hasnt really done anything More than put a value on “how much would anonymity in electronic financial transactions be worth ?”  Otherwise , a complete scam benefiting a select few ....

I follow him on twitter and some of his claims seem to be very off. 

If he thinks that crypto does nothing more than put a value on "anonymity in electronic transactions", then he is wrong and has overly simplified cryptos. 

I am not an expert in cryptos in any way, however even I can tell you cryptos do more than that.

He has taken all the claims and broken them down one by one . Just google it up - totally worth a read regardless of your preference in this space .
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: nosuchreality on October 29, 2018, 10:13:41 AM
The value of anonymity isn't in being anonymous, it is having access to otherwise inaccessible markets, bypassing regulation, avoiding taxes, financial controls, etc.

Look at the early days of Amazon, avoiding taxes, regulation and access is what built it with a healthy dose of predatory pricing.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on October 29, 2018, 10:49:19 AM
The value of anonymity isn't in being anonymous, it is having access to otherwise inaccessible markets, bypassing regulation, avoiding taxes, financial controls, etc.

Look at the early days of Amazon, avoiding taxes, regulation and access is what built it with a healthy dose of predatory pricing.

Is anyone else annoyed by amazon making you return items to either kohl’s or to their drop off center ?  Used to be free ups pickup if I remember correctly last year
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: akkord on October 29, 2018, 11:51:10 AM
Kohls is nice where you don't have to package your own items, just scan and drop off.  I luckily have UPS coming by our work's mailroom every day. 

Is anyone else annoyed by amazon making you return items to either kohl’s or to their drop off center ?  Used to be free ups pickup if I remember correctly last year
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: momopi on October 29, 2018, 12:16:00 PM
Depending on condition of item, if you complain loud enough Amazon will let you trash it and send a refund.

Earlier this year I ordered some Korean facial masks, Russian marine/military emergency ration bars ("elf bread"), and DA polisher foam pad (for car detailing) cleaner solution.  The foam pad cleaning solution bottle broke and I eyed face mask and Russian rations thinking "do I really want to put this on my face or eat it".  Called them and they said just throw it away and they'd send me a refund.

Side note, the Russian "Marine Pro" ration bars actually taste pretty good.  It's like sugar, fat, and oatmeal.  Will keep for 5 years.  I fed some to my coworkers and they all agreed that it tasted better than the typical "Coast Guard" emergency ration bars made here.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on November 15, 2018, 12:57:56 PM
Big breakdown...

Bitcoin Plunges Below $6,000, Hits New Lows for the Year
The virtual currency has lost more than 60% of its value this year

The lull in cryptocurrency markets is over.

Bitcoin dropped more than 10% on Wednesday, falling below $6,000 and reaching new lows for the year.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-plunges-below-6-000-hits-new-lows-for-the-year-1542247659 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-plunges-below-6-000-hits-new-lows-for-the-year-1542247659)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 15, 2018, 09:56:51 PM
Big breakdown...

Bitcoin Plunges Below $6,000, Hits New Lows for the Year
The virtual currency has lost more than 60% of its value this year

The lull in cryptocurrency markets is over.

Bitcoin dropped more than 10% on Wednesday, falling below $6,000 and reaching new lows for the year.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-plunges-below-6-000-hits-new-lows-for-the-year-1542247659 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-plunges-below-6-000-hits-new-lows-for-the-year-1542247659)

This could be why Nvidia tanked after providing poor guidance when they released their earnings this afternoon.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fortune11 on November 16, 2018, 04:14:49 AM
Big breakdown...

Bitcoin Plunges Below $6,000, Hits New Lows for the Year
The virtual currency has lost more than 60% of its value this year

The lull in cryptocurrency markets is over.

Bitcoin dropped more than 10% on Wednesday, falling below $6,000 and reaching new lows for the year.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-plunges-below-6-000-hits-new-lows-for-the-year-1542247659 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-plunges-below-6-000-hits-new-lows-for-the-year-1542247659)

This could be why Nvidia tanked after providing poor guidance when they released their earnings this afternoon.

Other way around —

Nvidia had guided back in the summer about slowing demand for bitcoin mining GPUs . I am surprised it took this long for the bitcoin people to wake up . This bitcoin thing is being propped up until one or few of the large owners decide to liquidate - then we wil get true price discovery ...
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kings on November 16, 2018, 08:13:31 AM
Big breakdown...

Bitcoin Plunges Below $6,000, Hits New Lows for the Year
The virtual currency has lost more than 60% of its value this year

The lull in cryptocurrency markets is over.

Bitcoin dropped more than 10% on Wednesday, falling below $6,000 and reaching new lows for the year.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-plunges-below-6-000-hits-new-lows-for-the-year-1542247659 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-plunges-below-6-000-hits-new-lows-for-the-year-1542247659)

This could be why Nvidia tanked after providing poor guidance when they released their earnings this afternoon.

Other way around —

Nvidia had guided back in the summer about slowing demand for bitcoin mining GPUs . I am surprised it took this long for the bitcoin people to wake up . This bitcoin thing is being propped up until one or few of the large owners decide to liquidate - then we wil get true price discovery ...

good, maybe finally i can afford a reasonably priced gpu
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: icey on November 05, 2020, 05:00:13 PM
$15,000

Square just reported $1 billion in quarterly revenue from Bitcoin. That's solid institutional support.

Yall musta forgot
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: aquabliss on November 06, 2020, 01:49:01 AM
Anybody daytrade Bitcoin?  My CPA says it’s a real pain at tax time with extra forms.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: jajji on November 15, 2020, 10:49:11 PM
Anybody daytrade Bitcoin?  My CPA says it’s a real pain at tax time with extra forms.

Haven't traded it since 2017 when it last peaked, but I did my own taxes on it and it was easy with bitcoin.tax

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: icey on January 05, 2021, 10:16:16 AM
https://www2.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2021/nr-occ-2021-2.html

Quote
Federally Chartered Banks and Thrifts May Participate in Independent Node Verification Networks and Use Stablecoins for Payment Activities

Huge huge news.

Banks can save tremendous amounts of money here. I doubt they will pass on the savings to customers though so continue to expect .0x % savings rates while executives yacht sizes increase lol
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Cornflakes on February 25, 2021, 10:43:07 AM
For BTC to be a real currency, the volatility has to flatline eventually. Till then it is just a speculative trading instrument.

If I sold you a product for $1 today and stick that dollar in my drawer, I know that 3 months from now it will still be a $1 more or less. If I sold you a product for x bitcoins, I have no idea weather it will be worth half or double 3 months from now. Therefore, for selling product or services at my profit margins, I'd prefer $ payment. For a gamble, sure I will be more willing to partake in BTC as my risk tolerance allows.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: momopi on February 25, 2021, 12:07:38 PM
I don't trade BTC directly -- I hold BTC through some shares in GBTC.

I do however have few thousand dollars at Coindesk and Kraken in alt coins for fun, like DOT staked at Kraken @ 12%.  You can take blockchain/crypto related classes online at Udemy.

I recommend watching this YT channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI7M65p3A-D3P4v5qW8POxQ


Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: zovall on February 25, 2021, 12:43:58 PM
Both GBTC and ETHE are trading at a discount currently.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on February 25, 2021, 01:11:52 PM
Things might change once the Digital Yuan is out. (If everybody can buy)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on February 25, 2021, 01:36:53 PM
Things might change once the Digital Yuan is out. (If everybody can buy)

I hope this is on your radar if you own crypto. That a legitimate currency backed by a government will come out.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: momopi on February 25, 2021, 02:48:42 PM
Both GBTC and ETHE are trading at a discount currently.

Greyscale has been buying a lot of eth.  I have a lowball ($14) limit order on ETHE and keeping eye open for opportunity to average down more.

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kenkoko on February 26, 2021, 12:25:05 AM
I use Coinbase for my cryptos.

Coinbase is about to go public and they have 40 million + verified users.

I currently hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, and Chainlink.

Truly believe crypto is going mainstream.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: zovall on February 26, 2021, 08:11:02 AM
Yup, Coinbase is a great way to get into crypto. It is like a crypto bank/brokerage so they have all the KYC (Know Your Customer) rules meaning you have to provide all kinds of personal information (just like you do when opening an account at Chase or Robin Hood).

I bought in some more GBTC as it is trading at quite a discount. I find things like GBTC and ETHE useful to purchase in my Roth IRA as I have some years still before I can pull those funds out.

For those who are experienced with crypto, please do post your tips.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: momopi on March 01, 2021, 03:35:54 PM
/me eyes green candlesticks in a row

That was a... massive BTC pump yesterday.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on March 02, 2021, 08:03:54 AM
Our new regulatory crazy admin may just pull some rail spikes out..

New York attorney general warns cryptocurrency industry: ‘Play by the rules or we will shut you down’

New York Attorney General Letitia James on Monday warned individual investors and cryptocurrency industry members about the dangers of the digital assets.
“We’re sending a clear message to the entire industry that you either play by the rules or we will shut you down,” James said in a press release.
James also told investors to “proceed with extreme caution” when investing in cryptocurrencies.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/new-york-attorney-general-warns-cryptocurrency-industry-play-by-the-rules-or-we-will-shut-you-down.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/new-york-attorney-general-warns-cryptocurrency-industry-play-by-the-rules-or-we-will-shut-you-down.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on May 12, 2021, 10:09:28 PM
Elon tweeted that Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoin. The crypto market is tanking...
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: aquabliss on May 13, 2021, 01:30:48 AM
Elon tweeted that Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoin. The crypto market is tanking...

So how long until he tweets that Tesla will be accepting Doge?  Y’all bought Doge at .005, right?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 13, 2021, 09:11:21 AM
While I realize crypto may be the future... I don't trust it.

I recall some blockchain hacks last year or am I remembering wrong?

But then again... our current currency is pretty much digital. :)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kenkoko on May 14, 2021, 12:33:31 AM
While I realize crypto may be the future... I don't trust it.

I recall some blockchain hacks last year or am I remembering wrong?

But then again... our current currency is pretty much digital. :)

There are definitely crypto junks. There needs to be more regulations.

But if your worry is about hacking legit crypto like Bitcoin, you really shouldn't be.

Nothing is impossible, but the prevailing consensus is that hacking bitcoin is extremely difficult. (a hacker will have to breach a huge number of servers)

CNBC did an hour long segment deep-diving into this about a month ago. Definitely worth looking up if you're interested.

If your trepidation is based on Bitcoin not being safe to trade, keep in mind that we allow and have tracking stocks, bankrupt companies, pink sheet stocks and unknown derivatives trading on our markets.

The common distrust is Bitcoin not being a tangible asset like gold. But to me they are both financial religions.

Bitcoin is easy to trade/store/create with no delivery issues. It also enables transfer of value locally and globally.

Gold is a hassle. Just look at Ft Knox  ;D

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 14, 2021, 09:23:10 AM
The real problem with bitcoin and all the cryptos is stability.  People don't want to transact business in a medium that moves up and down 20% weekly and sometimes daily.  That Tesla you bought last week with bitcoin is not worth 20% more or less this week from last.  The medium is too volatile to use consistently. Turns everyone involved onto a crypto trader whether they like it or not.  I'll stick to the dollar...inflation or no.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 14, 2021, 10:41:43 AM
Major ponzi scheme.

Suprise, that Elon, follow suit in the first place.

But he quickly retract, when that 420 wears off.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kenkoko on May 14, 2021, 12:42:33 PM
CV with all due respect, it's a lot more nuanced than that.

Tesla needs to stay ESG and the stock could be removed from ESG portfolios if they didn't do this. Tesla also needs to collect a lot of subsidies tied to its environmental mission. It is a business move, calling it a Ponzi scheme is not entirely accurate.

This is not to say that Elon isn't an opportunistic shark.

But is he really any different from all the talking heads going on Jim Cramer and CNBC to pump their pet stocks?

It's legal, common practice, and morally suspect. But it's not a Ponzi scheme.

Some people are so quick to call Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme. But seemingly lose sight of the fact that Bitcoin, just like fine arts, collectables, gold, baseball cards, limited edition luxury bags, the insane price premium on Eichler houses, rely on perceived value based on relative scarcity.

Are they all Ponzi schemes ?

@ moreaos - it's a bit strange to complain about bitcoin's price stability.

Any clear eye investor would recognize that Bitcoin is like a startup and crypto is an industry in its infancy. The entire value proposition is banking on the future potential and future growth in public adoption.

Price volatility is a feature not a bug in pretty much all early stage companies / industries. Not uniquely a problem with bitcoin.



Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 14, 2021, 01:13:41 PM
I disagree. Unlike a basic startup that peddles a specific product or service this is an attempt at a medium of exchange.  That requires that all participants agree to some form of ground rules and standards. There are no real rules, consequences, cops or recourse there.   Seen it come and go before...remember Flooz??...ask Whoopi how that went. Or Beenz?... This game has too many dark corners for my taste...have fun with it ..while it lasts.

Flooz.com
Flooz was an idea for virtual currency accumulated like frequent flier miles: You would receive them as bonuses from online merchants, or you could go to the site and purchase more of them.  You then could redeem them for merchandise from participating merchants.

The site was founded in Feb. 1999, and it became better known for having Whoopi Goldberg as its spokeswoman than for what it actually did.  The company announced its closure on Aug. 26, 2001, leaving people with completely worthless Flooz currency, even if they had purchased it as opposed to earning it.  It is estimated that the company had burned through as much as $50 million in venture capital by the time it shut its doors.

Robert Levitan, one of the founders of the company, told The Industry Standard that by mid-2001 the company had been informed by the FBI that it was being targets by Russian criminals in a money laundering scheme.  It was discovered that as much as 19 percent of its transactions had been of a fraudulent nature.



Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 14, 2021, 02:18:50 PM
What do you expect when you trade in a medium founded by criminals, for criminals with no repercussions or rules...Don't grasp your pearls in stunned disbelief when you get ripped off....

Elon Musk's £50million private jet arrives in the UK as it's revealed Tesla made £200m selling Bitcoin before announcing it would not accept it for purchases
Musk's Gulfstream G650ER private jet touched down at Luton Airport on Friday

A black Mercedes was seen chauffeuring passengers away soon after 4.30pm
The jet's arrival comes after the billionaire's net wealth took a $20m plunge
Tesla's founder said the company would no longer be accepting Bitcoin, despite recently selling selling off around £200 million worth of the cryptocurrency

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580053/Elon-Musks-50million-private-jet-arrives-UK-nine-hour-flight-California.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580053/Elon-Musks-50million-private-jet-arrives-UK-nine-hour-flight-California.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: zubs on May 14, 2021, 03:44:36 PM
so bitcoins is a game of hot potato getting hotter?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Kenkoko on May 14, 2021, 04:03:47 PM
@ morekaos - I appreciate you taking the time to respond. But like much of our past discussions on various topics, you keep moving the goal posts.

Even as a crypto enthusiast, I will admit there are legitimate and well articulated arguments against Bitcoin and cryptos.

But what you've said really ain't it.

And it's okay to not like or invest in Bitcoin / Cryptos based on intuitions / feelings. It's quite common. CNBC survey showed 78% of investors over the age of 40 are skeptical of cryptos.

But that's also missing half of the picture.

Same survey showed 82% of investors under the age of 40 are pro cryptos, 64% said they would completely replace gold with crypto as a store of value.

A new study estimates that about 46 million Americans now own at least a share of Bitcoin --  about 17% of the adult population.

It's probably better to keep an open mind when it comes to investment opportunities, especially since the public perception is obviously changing quickly.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/about-46-million-americans-now-own-bitcoin-2021-05-14
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 14, 2021, 07:14:41 PM
100%...I’m a keep it simple stupid kind of guy. Made a pretty penny my way and it works consistently. Not to be a “turn down that rock and roll music!” Kind of adult but you wippersnappers have fun! I will stick to
My knitting for now. In my experience it is never really “different this time”...the names can change but the results remain the same.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on May 16, 2021, 02:56:04 PM
Another crypto drop is happening now.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 16, 2021, 03:45:12 PM
Yup, it seem that some bagholder, uhh, I mean investors, like to cash some in for weekend shopping. :-).

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 16, 2021, 08:05:52 PM
....and then?... ;D >:D

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 17, 2021, 11:41:51 AM
This scenario plays itself out over and over.. .com...flip this house...commodity trading..gold..forex trading...now this.  Seen em come, seen em go..

As cryptocurrency goes wild, fear grows about who might get hurt

Apps such as Robinhood and Coinbase offer a host of cryptocurrencies to invest in, which users can convert into cash. The ease of trading, experts say, was amplified by the economic and social conditions of the pandemic, which cut people off from live entertainment and casinos, while many Americans had thousands of dollars in stimulus checks to spend.

A viral tweet posted by Nick Maggiulli, chief operating officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, captured the astronomical growth for those willing to take the risk: If a person who received three government stimulus checks invested the full amounts in Dogecoin - buying in April and December last year and again in March - that portfolio would now hold approximately $500,000 worth of the token.

"Because you get this big price movement, you start to see your friends making money, people have this general fear of missing out and they want to be part of the excitement," said James Putra, vice president of product strategy at TradeStation Crypto, a trading platform. "When you put an entire nation at home, they find interesting ways" to spend their time, he said. "People that never even contemplated trading are now talking to me about moving averages and chart patterns."

https://news.yahoo.com/cryptocurrency-goes-wild-fear-grows-111702388.html (https://news.yahoo.com/cryptocurrency-goes-wild-fear-grows-111702388.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: momopi on May 17, 2021, 04:01:45 PM
I've been exiting my positions in GBTC, RIOT and MARA since early May.  As of today I only have small position in RIOT remaining, since they missed earnings (0.09 vs 0.20).  I'm still holding COIN for now.

The funds from tech and crypto stocks sold have been redirected to Sporting Goods and Boating stocks, including AOUT, ASO, BC, CWH, DKS, FL, HZO, MCFT, NLS, ONEW, and VSTO.

AOUT, HZO, and VSTO are all up over 20% since I started buying last month.  Despite the recent market dip I'm still up ~26% on VSTO.

I have some money in Coinbase and Kraken, invested in ETH, ADA, LINK, GRT, and DOT for fun.  Mostly just a learning experience.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 19, 2021, 07:39:59 AM
Well...not a lot of "nuance" about that..ehh? ;D ;) >:D

Bitcoin’s plunge intensifies, tanks 30% to $30,000 in single day amid broad cryptocurrency sell-off

The digital currency was down more than 30% on the day to $30,015.02, according to Coin Metrics. It hit as low as $30,001.51 as the selling intensified Wednesday morning. The cryptocurrency hasn’t traded below $30,000 since late January.

Wednesday’s decline extended bitcoin’s loss for the past week to more than 40%.

Other cryptocurrencies also plunged on Wednesday. Ether, the digital currency that powers the Ethereum blockchain, was down more than 30% at $2,235, according to Coin Metrics. Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that started as a joke and has been talked up by Musk, fell more than 30% to about 32 cents.

Additionally, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase was experiencing an outage for some users as the coins plunged.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/19/bitcoin-btc-price-plunges-but-bottom-could-be-near-.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/19/bitcoin-btc-price-plunges-but-bottom-could-be-near-.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 19, 2021, 08:11:43 AM
Yah I know its the new "paradigm" of investments and i am just a simple caveman (your new technology frightens me)  but seems china is in the same cave....

The Crypto crash: Bitcoin plunges 28%, Ethereum 38% and Dogecoin 47% after China cracked down on payments and Elon Musk said Tesla would not accept Bitcoin
China announced Bitcoin will not be allowed in transactions due to fluctuations
Financial institutions also warned investors against trading in cryptocurrency
Elon Musk announced last week Tesla would not accept bitcoin as payment
He spoke out amid environmental concerns involved in mining the currency

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9594855/Bitcoin-plunges-value-China-starts-cryptocurrency-crackdown-days-Elon-Musk-warning.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9594855/Bitcoin-plunges-value-China-starts-cryptocurrency-crackdown-days-Elon-Musk-warning.html)

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: daedalus on May 19, 2021, 11:15:34 PM
Elon did a pure pump and dump like a boss.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 20, 2021, 10:14:16 AM
Winter is coming!!

Washington is rushing to regulate crypto. It’s a mess.
The SEC, CFTC, IRS, FinCEN and Congress all want a piece of crypto oversight. The confusion has some in the industry calling for clearer regulations.

https://www.protocol.com/fintech/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-regulations (https://www.protocol.com/fintech/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-regulations)

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 20, 2021, 11:52:49 AM
The fact that one tweet from a high profile individual sent the stocking tumbling more than 20% in a single tweet, tells me that this is not a store of values holding.


Can’t wait for the next tweet.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: nosuchreality on May 20, 2021, 12:39:18 PM
Was it the tweet or the SNL "hustle" joke?

Everyone knows what makes a joke funny is the grain of truth.

Really gorgeous clothes for the emporer though.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 20, 2021, 04:49:23 PM
All too easy...

Treasury calls for crypto transactions over $10,000 to be reported to the IRS - sending value of Bitcoin back under $40,000 after Elon Musk-inspired rally

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9600487/Bitcoin-holds-steady-40-000-plunging-30-day.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9600487/Bitcoin-holds-steady-40-000-plunging-30-day.html)

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: marmott on May 20, 2021, 08:57:06 PM
The IRS already ask if "At any time during 2020, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?" on the 1040 form so I'm not sure it's a huge news.

But your average crypto owner probably doesn't realize they need to pay tax on their gains  ;D
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on May 21, 2021, 08:18:30 AM
What do you expect when you trade in a medium founded by criminals, for criminals with no repercussions or rules...Don't grasp your pearls in stunned disbelief when you get ripped off....

Elon Musk's £50million private jet arrives in the UK as it's revealed Tesla made £200m selling Bitcoin before announcing it would not accept it for purchases
Musk's Gulfstream G650ER private jet touched down at Luton Airport on Friday

A black Mercedes was seen chauffeuring passengers away soon after 4.30pm
The jet's arrival comes after the billionaire's net wealth took a $20m plunge
Tesla's founder said the company would no longer be accepting Bitcoin, despite recently selling selling off around £200 million worth of the cryptocurrency

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580053/Elon-Musks-50million-private-jet-arrives-UK-nine-hour-flight-California.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9580053/Elon-Musks-50million-private-jet-arrives-UK-nine-hour-flight-California.html)

Crypto fraudsters used Elon Musk's SNL appearance 'to fleece people of up to $10million in new Twitter scam'
Crypto expert claims up to $10million was stolen on weekend beginning May 7
Scammers used Elon Musk's SNL appearance to promote fake crypto schemes

The crypto criminals hacked verified accounts and pretended to be celebrities
They then promoted sites promising cash rewards after initial crypto payment

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9603645/Crypto-fraudsters-used-Elon-Musks-SNL-appearance-fleece-people-10million.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9603645/Crypto-fraudsters-used-Elon-Musks-SNL-appearance-fleece-people-10million.html)

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: AW on May 21, 2021, 09:01:03 AM
psssh....

c'mon now, to the moon!!! haha

(https://i.redd.it/c9lg95srmj521.png)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on June 04, 2021, 10:55:37 AM
Well that happened quick, I guess that is the way of these modern scams...Crypto will follow the pattern...

NFT bubble pops: Market implodes with sales falling 90% in a month after craze for buying memes and viral videos suddenly fades
Sales of non-fungible tokens are down 90% from a month ago as the craze fades
Fad saw collectors pay millions to 'own' digital artwork and memes
Jack Dorsey's first tweet and 'Charlie bit my finger' were among the sales
NFT enthusiasts insist the market hasn't crashed and claim it's a fluctuation

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9652255/NFT-bubble-pops-Market-implodes-sales-falling-90-month.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9652255/NFT-bubble-pops-Market-implodes-sales-falling-90-month.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on June 04, 2021, 11:05:27 AM
Why are your financial related posts after the fact?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: daedalus on June 04, 2021, 11:16:23 AM
I remember when I read about NFTs for the 1st time, it proved to me that there's too much money in this world, and we're losing all sense of its value.  It reminded me immediately of the Robin Williams' quote, "Cocaine is God's way of saying you're making too much money.", except that today drugs are everywhere and its the crytocrap that's the harbinger.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on June 04, 2021, 11:41:53 AM
Why are your financial related posts after the fact?


Because I get paid for telling them this way ahead of time. I just didn't tell you.  Stuff i post here is free and just for fun.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on June 04, 2021, 11:45:04 AM
I remember when I read about NFTs for the 1st time, it proved to me that there's too much money in this world, and we're losing all sense of its value.  It reminded me immediately of the Robin Williams' quote, "Cocaine is God's way of saying you're making too much money.", except that today drugs are everywhere and its the crytocrap that's the harbinger.

Agree...the end is neigh...

Artist sells invisible sculpture for over $18K

An Italian artist sold an invisible sculpture for over $18,000 and had to give the buyer a certificate of authenticity to prove it’s real, the Daily Mail reported.

Salvatore Garau sold his piece, entitled “Io Sono” (I am), to an unidentified buyer last month.

Italian auction house Art-Rite organized the sale of the “immaterial” statue in May with a beginning estimated value coming in between $7,000 and $11,000.

“The vacuum is nothing more than a space full of energy, and even if we empty it and there is nothing left, according to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, that ‘nothing’ has a weight,” the Sardinian-born artist explained, according to Hypebeast. “Therefore, it has energy that is condensed and transformed into particles, that is, into us.”

https://nypost.com/2021/06/03/artist-sells-invisible-sculpture-for-over-18k/ (https://nypost.com/2021/06/03/artist-sells-invisible-sculpture-for-over-18k/)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on June 04, 2021, 02:55:40 PM
I remember when I read about NFTs for the 1st time, it proved to me that there's too much money in this world, and we're losing all sense of its value.  It reminded me immediately of the Robin Williams' quote, "Cocaine is God's way of saying you're making too much money.", except that today drugs are everywhere and its the crytocrap that's the harbinger.

Text book response is the fair value is whatever the market is willing to pay for it.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: daedalus on June 04, 2021, 06:41:51 PM
Text book response is the fair value is whatever the market is willing to pay for it.
That's a profound statement that doesn't really add any substance to the discussion of whether we're in an asset bubble.  It's true if prices are skyrocketing, and it's still true if prices are imploding.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on June 04, 2021, 07:18:27 PM
Text book response is the fair value is whatever the market is willing to pay for it.
That's a profound statement that doesn't really add any substance to the discussion of whether we're in an asset bubble.  It's true if prices are skyrocketing, and it's still true if prices are imploding.

It is what it is. Why do people over pay for bansky art? Because there is a demand. Just like the current demand for GPUs. Outrages prices for GPUs but people are paying premium prices.
You think digital currency is a joke? China is rolling out its own digital currency.

Why did prices go up for the meme stocks? Because there is a demand. Are the valuations justified? Probably not

So my basic statement about fair value is correct. Have a nice day.  ;)

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on June 04, 2021, 07:22:21 PM
Someone started the crypto correction and let’s say many people are not happy with him.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: nosuchreality on June 04, 2021, 07:26:16 PM
Text book response is the fair value is whatever the market is willing to pay for it.
That's a profound statement that doesn't really add any substance to the discussion of whether we're in an asset bubble.  It's true if prices are skyrocketing, and it's still true if prices are imploding.
<snip>
China is rolling out its own digital currency.
<snip>


Digital currency is the ultimate Government Control item when they have the control keys.

Oops, looks like your low Social Credit value has adversely impacted your digital currency exchange rate.  No loaf of bread for you. 
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on June 04, 2021, 07:31:13 PM
Text book response is the fair value is whatever the market is willing to pay for it.
That's a profound statement that doesn't really add any substance to the discussion of whether we're in an asset bubble.  It's true if prices are skyrocketing, and it's still true if prices are imploding.
<snip>
China is rolling out its own digital currency.
<snip>


Digital currency is the ultimate Government Control item when they have the control keys.

Oops, looks like your low Social Credit value has adversely impacted your digital currency exchange rate.  No loaf of bread for you.

Digital currency is the future. Watch you will see.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: aquabliss on June 04, 2021, 09:38:26 PM
All the dollars in my bank and brokerage accounts are already digital.  I didn’t use cash for any of these balances.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on June 07, 2021, 01:06:53 PM
Someone started the crypto correction and let’s say many people are not happy with him.

Marketwatch: Elon Musk’s crypto tweets have ‘destroyed lives,’ says video purportedly from Anonymous

Elon Musk has “destroyed lives” through irresponsible tweets that have recently roiled cryptocurrency markets, a group claiming to represent the hacker collective Anonymous said in a weekend video.

Last month, Musk sent bitcoin prices plunging after announcing Tesla would no longer accept bitcoin as payment for its vehicles, citing the high levels of carbon emissions produced by bitcoin mining. Musk said it was looking into other cryptos, such as dogecoin, that are more eco-friendly.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musks-crypto-tweets-have-destroyed-lives-says-video-purportedly-from-anonymous-11623019100




Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Compressed-Village on June 07, 2021, 04:27:11 PM
It takes one person to crater the price.

Common morron, its not a good bet. Take your money to Vegas for a better return if you willing to gamble.

No one praised him when he bought the stock and willing to trade bitcoin for Tesla and pumped the price up.

Dude had a planned to pump and dump. Although he does not need the money, why such a controversial moves I wonder.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on June 08, 2021, 11:12:23 AM
Not as foolproof as thought?...


Bitcoin extends losses, falling below $32,000 after U.S. seizes most of Colonial ransom

Bitcoin’s price slipped again Tuesday. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continued to fall throughout the day amid a brutal sell-off among digital currencies.

The reason for the move was unclear, however it may be related to concerns over security of the cryptocurrency after U.S. officials managed to recover most of the ransom paid to hackers that targeted Colonial Pipeline.

Court documents said investigators were able to access the password for one of the hackers’ bitcoin wallets. The money was recovered by a recently launched task force in Washington created as part of the government’s response to a rise in cyberattacks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/bitcoin-btc-price-slides-as-us-seizes-most-of-colonial-ransom.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/bitcoin-btc-price-slides-as-us-seizes-most-of-colonial-ransom.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: zubs on June 08, 2021, 11:14:18 AM
I'm glad we have our own sanctioned hackers hacking the hackers.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on June 08, 2021, 11:51:49 AM
Let them walk away? Not really bro
People still blaming Elon!

Not as foolproof as thought?...


Bitcoin extends losses, falling below $32,000 after U.S. seizes most of Colonial ransom

Bitcoin’s price slipped again Tuesday. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continued to fall throughout the day amid a brutal sell-off among digital currencies.

The reason for the move was unclear, however it may be related to concerns over security of the cryptocurrency after U.S. officials managed to recover most of the ransom paid to hackers that targeted Colonial Pipeline.

Court documents said investigators were able to access the password for one of the hackers’ bitcoin wallets. The money was recovered by a recently launched task force in Washington created as part of the government’s response to a rise in cyberattacks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/bitcoin-btc-price-slides-as-us-seizes-most-of-colonial-ransom.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/bitcoin-btc-price-slides-as-us-seizes-most-of-colonial-ransom.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: aquabliss on June 21, 2021, 02:32:37 PM
Anyone buying $DOGE at .20, or should we wait until .15?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 08:39:55 AM
I thought it was unhackable?...funny these thefts don't really get a lot of press because you have to maintain the "I Believe" narrative in order for the Ponzi to continue...designed by criminals...for criminals...people are such sheep... ;D ;D >:D

Coinbase slammed for what users say is terrible customer service after hackers drain their accounts

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/coinbase-slammed-for-terrible-customer-service-after-hackers-drain-user-accounts.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/coinbase-slammed-for-terrible-customer-service-after-hackers-drain-user-accounts.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail)

More Than $600 Million Stolen In Ethereum And Other Cryptocurrencies—Marking One Of Crypto’s Biggest Hacks Ever

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/?sh=1c402267f623 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/?sh=1c402267f623)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 09:10:46 AM
anything you log into using a username and password is hackable
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 09:44:03 AM
anything you log into using a username and password is hackable

When you are dealing in an unregulated environment with no rules or recourse...designed by criminals to serve crime..this is what you get...

Interviews with Coinbase customers around the country and a review of thousands of complaints reveal a pattern of account takeovers, where users see money suddenly vanish from their account, followed by poor customer service from Coinbase that made those users feel left hanging and angry.

Making the issue even worse, cryptocurrency transactions cannot be reversed, according to the FBI. Experts say once criminals access an account, funds can be drained in minutes.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 09:56:59 AM
did the FBI comment on whether ATM withdrawals can be reversed?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 10:05:47 AM
did the FBI comment on whether ATM withdrawals can be reversed?

They can be.  Happened to me and cash was back in that same day.  Can't say the same for Coinbase...that balance is gone forever.  FDIC and a regulated industry insure my balance against such thefts.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 10:07:02 AM
that's not reversal, that's just insurance.  anything can be insured. 
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 10:15:10 AM
that's not reversal, that's just insurance.  anything can be insured. 

Stop debating the meaning of "stranded" or the context of the word "is"...Insurance, enforcement or regulation...who cares? The end result is the same, my deposits are protected, safe and reliable.  There are no such guarantees with Crypto..none.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: zovall on August 25, 2021, 11:21:18 AM
There are services like this: https://keys.casa/
I don't think they guarantee anything though
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: zovall on August 25, 2021, 11:23:58 AM
More Than $600 Million Stolen In Ethereum And Other Cryptocurrencies—Marking One Of Crypto’s Biggest Hacks Ever

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/?sh=1c402267f623 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/?sh=1c402267f623)

It seems this money was returned by the hacker:
https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/23/22638087/poly-network-600-million-stolen-crypto-hack-restored-defi
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 11:26:29 AM
More Than $600 Million Stolen In Ethereum And Other Cryptocurrencies—Marking One Of Crypto’s Biggest Hacks Ever

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/?sh=1c402267f623 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/?sh=1c402267f623)

It seems this money was returned by the hacker:
https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/23/22638087/poly-network-600-million-stolen-crypto-hack-restored-defi

It was but the fact that they hacked the  blockchain simply to prove they could has brought into question the whole safety of blockchain technology...it seems the un-hackable in not so much...
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 11:27:55 AM
if someone hacks my steam account i'm not getting my games back.  anyone holding significant amounts of valuable data on a website is doing so at huge risk.  no different than keeping more than $250k in your wells fargo checking account.  buyer beware.

crypto is much easier to store securely than cash, though.  all you have to keep secure is a 256-digit number.  or a set of code words that you can memorize.  or you can leave it in the custody of a third party company, protected only by a username and password.  if i had millions in bitcoin, i know which route i would choose...

Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 11:38:45 AM
Not the game for me....

Preble had saved enough money to take the plunge into bitcoin and ethereum earlier this year, investing about $8,000. By April, her investment had grown to $12,000.

But one day that month, when she was trying to buy more crypto, it all started disappearing, she said.

“In front of my eyes, it went to $800,” she said. Suspected fraudsters were able to somehow gain access to her account.

To this day, she said she still has no idea how they did it.

“Horrifying. And all I think could think is, ‘Wow, shouldn’t there be a better firewall?’”

After CNBC inquired about what happened to the couple, Coinbase sent Tanja an email on Aug. 20 that said the company “does not have the ability to reverse crypto transfers sent off our platform. Unlike traditional banks or credit card companies, once crypto currency transfers are confirmed on the blockchain, they are permanent.”
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 11:39:51 AM
if someone is saying blockchain is unhackable they are lying or wrong, or you're misunderstanding what they're saying.

bitcoin and other consensus algorithms are trivially "hackable."  you just need to control 51% of the hash power.  that can literally be done right now, with current tech.  it would cost billions of dollars to do, and wouldn't be profitable since no one would have any interest in owning bitcoin after your attack, but could be done by a nation-state with interest in destroying btc.  of course people could just fork an earlier version of the blockchain to btc2 or whatever, make some change to defeat your hashing equipment, and move on.  so it's just a matter of cost/benefit analysis for a potential attacker.  there are other ways to accomplish the same thing without brute force mining, e.g. by hacking or taking over the largest btc mining pools. 

an individual bitcoin address, and the private key that lets you control that bitcoin address and send/receive bitcoin, is not "hackable."  (or at least, if it is hackable, then so is everything else on the internet that relies on SHA-256 encryption including all traditional banking btw).  not a super convenient way to interact with the blockchain, though, so most people trade security for ease of use, and sometimes pay the price for that.  not in any way unique to blockchain or bitcoin.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 11:50:14 AM
More Than $600 Million Stolen In Ethereum And Other Cryptocurrencies—Marking One Of Crypto’s Biggest Hacks Ever

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/?sh=1c402267f623 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/?sh=1c402267f623)

It seems this money was returned by the hacker:
https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/23/22638087/poly-network-600-million-stolen-crypto-hack-restored-defi

It was but the fact that they hacked the  blockchain simply to prove they could has brought into question the whole safety of blockchain technology...it seems the un-hackable in not so much...

they exploited a vulnerability in poly network's smart contracts, which are software programs that facilitate transactions between different blockchains.  so the analogy would be more like hacking venmo or paypal than hacking banks.

the story is that they did it to "prove they could" but it appears that the reality is private investigators were able to track down the culprit fairly easily (due in part to the public nature of blockchain transactions) and the hacker feared retribution from chinese govt and so decided to return the funds (in exchange for a $500k "bounty").
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 11:51:09 AM
btw, for a fun exercise, try sending $10 to a random person on venmo and then asking venmo to reverse the transaction.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 01:11:39 PM
Crooks paying off crooks to maintain integrity...sounds more like a mafia intimidation situation...not a calm pool to play in...IMHO.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 01:15:33 PM
"$100 reward for returned wallet, no questions asked"

person who brings the wallet back might be the thief.  but at least you still get your wallet back?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 01:25:34 PM
That works great!... ;D >:D

Lady Gaga’s $500,000 reward for stolen dogs ‘jeopardizing’ probe and will fuel dog nappings for ransoms – ex-FBI chief

LADY Gaga’s $500,000 reward for her stolen dogs has been slammed by a former FBI chief for putting the ongoing police investigation at risk and potentially fuelling more dog nappings for ransoms.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/2410806/lady-gaga-dog-kidnap-ransom-jeopardising/ (https://www.the-sun.com/news/2410806/lady-gaga-dog-kidnap-ransom-jeopardising/)

Lady Gaga’s dogs were returned to the singer after she offered a $500,000 reward to whoever found them. Yet, she was reportedly advised by police not to pay out the reward until they concluded their investigation. This proved to be fruitful advice since the police believe that the woman who “found” the dogs was in on the scheme to steal that Frenchies and has also been arrested.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 02:04:49 PM
happened right down the street from me.  didn't turn out so great for the dog walker i'm told...
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 02:24:08 PM
Or the crooks
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on August 25, 2021, 02:31:52 PM
yea i typically advise against shooting people.  rarely works out.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2021, 02:40:32 PM
The girl who tried to collect the reward also got arrested. ;D >:D >:D
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on September 07, 2021, 01:49:24 PM
Designed by crooks...for crooks...

Crypto 'BLACK TUESDAY': $400B is wiped from ALL digital currencies as El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as legal tender: Rollout is immediately hit with technical difficulties (but not at McDonald's!)
Bitcoin plummets 11% before recovering a bit in trading on the market Tuesday
Other cryptocurrencies saw double-digit percent losses in trading on Tuesday
Move comes as El Salvador says it will start using Bitcoin as legal tender
McDonald's, Starbucks, and Pizza Hut customers made purchases using Bitcoin
Analysts said country's adoption of currency will have limited impact
Most of the country is poor and lacks access to internet and smartphones
Traders want to see if other nations follow El Salvador's lead and adopt crypto
El Salvador now has two official currencies - Bitcoin and the US Dollar
President Nayib Bukele says bitcoin will save Salvadorans $400million annually
The International Monetary Fund called the cryptocurrency move 'a step too far'
The Central American country is the first nation to adopt bitcoin as legal tender

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9966561/Early-stumble-El-Salvador-starts-Bitcoin-currency.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9966561/Early-stumble-El-Salvador-starts-Bitcoin-currency.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on September 07, 2021, 07:18:32 PM
crypto black tuesday lmao
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on September 07, 2021, 07:20:34 PM
crypto black tuesday lmao

On that, we agree.  11% movement in a day for that thing is normal.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Goriot on September 07, 2021, 08:23:42 PM
.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Goriot on September 07, 2021, 08:35:41 PM
.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Goriot on September 07, 2021, 08:35:50 PM
btw, what do you guys think about Solana crypto?  I have been adding quite a bit of SOL into my crypto portfolio in the past month. 
Target price for me is $750 to $1,000 in the next 3-5 years.   Most optimistic price target is $1,500 and low of $50.  Trying to fund a second home (single loaded view home) at OH 4 when it releases 2024-2025 Lol.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: zovall on September 07, 2021, 09:31:56 PM
It has had an impressive run in the last couple weeks. I wouldn't bet against it. But how much more do you think is left in this rally (not 3-5 years)?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Goriot on September 08, 2021, 10:14:12 AM
It has had an impressive run in the last couple weeks. I wouldn't bet against it. But how much more do you think is left in this rally (not 3-5 years)?

Who knows, but 100%+ return by year-end from today is the target so about $300 to $500.  We will see how Fed tapering impacts cryptos, but Solana chart looks good with a great momentum.   I only use play money with no margins for Cryptos.


Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: momopi on September 08, 2021, 05:04:41 PM

/me eyes support.com merger with Greenidge crypto mining (merger vote Sept 10)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Goriot on September 08, 2021, 05:56:10 PM
It has had an impressive run in the last couple weeks. I wouldn't bet against it. But how much more do you think is left in this rally (not 3-5 years)?

Who knows, but 100%+ return by year-end from today is the target so about $300 to $500.  We will see how Fed tapering impacts cryptos, but Solana chart looks good with a great momentum.   I only use play money with no margins for Cryptos.

Breaking out above $200 today.  Might reach $300 faster then  anticipated. 
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on September 25, 2021, 11:15:32 PM
China declares all crypto transactions illegal. Unbelievable!
It seems they are doing this for their own digital currency.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: qwerty on September 26, 2021, 08:37:45 AM
It has had an impressive run in the last couple weeks. I wouldn't bet against it. But how much more do you think is left in this rally (not 3-5 years)?

Who knows, but 100%+ return by year-end from today is the target so about $300 to $500.  We will see how Fed tapering impacts cryptos, but Solana chart looks good with a great momentum.   I only use play money with no margins for Cryptos.

Breaking out above $200 today.  Might reach $300 faster then  anticipated. 

Looks like this is down to 136. I keep on getting tempted with crypto haven’t piled the trigger. My gut told me to buy BTC when it hit 28k recently and it would have turned out very well. Coulda woulda shoulda.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on September 26, 2021, 03:26:23 PM
It has had an impressive run in the last couple weeks. I wouldn't bet against it. But how much more do you think is left in this rally (not 3-5 years)?

Who knows, but 100%+ return by year-end from today is the target so about $300 to $500.  We will see how Fed tapering impacts cryptos, but Solana chart looks good with a great momentum.   I only use play money with no margins for Cryptos.

Breaking out above $200 today.  Might reach $300 faster then  anticipated. 

Looks like this is down to 136. I keep on getting tempted with crypto haven’t piled the trigger. My gut told me to buy BTC when it hit 28k recently and it would have turned out very well. Coulda woulda shoulda.

Fyi-You can buy a fraction of btc.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: sleepy5136 on September 26, 2021, 04:39:24 PM
.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: sleepy5136 on September 26, 2021, 04:40:19 PM
do you guys think btc will actually do well in the future? with an entity like china being against it as its competing against its own currency, what makes one think that other countries will not think the same and jump in on China's wagon?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on October 06, 2021, 08:48:17 AM
No one to complain to because there are no rules, regulation or recourse.  Must rely on the honesty of other criminals...great system..

Crypto firm mistakenly sends out $89M, asks users to please return it

A technical glitch in a crypto marketplace has just made some cryptocurrency users tens of millions of dollars richer — and the marketplace founder's threats have ignited a debate about the rules of digital money in an authority-less world.

Compound, a popular cryptocurrency platform, last week put out what should have been a routine update to the code that governs users' transactions. However, the update contained a bug that mistakenly sent up to $89 million worth of crypto tokens into some users' accounts.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/crypto-firm-mistakenly-sends-out-89m-asks-users-to-please-return-it/ar-AAP7Wzt?ocid=uxbndlbing (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/crypto-firm-mistakenly-sends-out-89m-asks-users-to-please-return-it/ar-AAP7Wzt?ocid=uxbndlbing)

...all the halmarks of a scam...

CRYPTO CASTLE Inside the ‘world’s first Bitcoin rehab clinic’ where traders who have lost MILLIONS battle cryptocurrency addiction

Tony says that too many stories about Bitcoin are about people who have made fortunes - and not the traders who have gambled their lives away.

He said: "We’re not hearing about the people that have lost lots of money. People are so ashamed. They feel so guilty. They don't want to be talking about it. They feel stupid.”

https://www.the-sun.com/news/3796610/cryptocurrency-rehab-clinic-addiction/#:~:text=A%20REHAB%20clinic%20in%20Scotland%20claims%20to%20be,is%20treating%20people%20addicted%20to%20cryptocurrency%20Credit%3A%20Reuters (https://www.the-sun.com/news/3796610/cryptocurrency-rehab-clinic-addiction/#:~:text=A%20REHAB%20clinic%20in%20Scotland%20claims%20to%20be,is%20treating%20people%20addicted%20to%20cryptocurrency%20Credit%3A%20Reuters)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 06, 2021, 09:15:05 AM
I'm with morekaos on this... I still don't trust cryptocurrency.

Seems like its price is based on the volatility rather than actual value.

Does anyone actually get into cryptocurrency for transactional functionality?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: aquabliss on October 06, 2021, 09:55:20 AM
Ohhhh that explains the extra $12M in my wallet this morning.  Drinks on me!
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 06, 2021, 11:39:32 AM
I'm with morekaos on this... I still don't trust cryptocurrency.

Seems like its price is based on the volatility rather than actual value.

Does anyone actually get into cryptocurrency for transactional functionality?

I almost got my Tesla, until Elon reliquish taking Bitcoin as payment, a few week later with a tweet. J/K  :)

That's how we do business nowaday, with a tweet. ehh
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on October 19, 2021, 06:31:04 PM
This is a long article, but well worth reading:

Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/10/why-the-big-short-guys-think-bitcoin-is-a-bubble.html

(https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/b42/b90/22a1e0931f22f918322d844f8b5ba6e3bb-bitcoin-fall.2x.rhorizontal.w700.jpg)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on October 19, 2021, 06:47:48 PM
That article was indeed long, but with very little substance

Of course Bitcoin is a bubble. It has essentially no utility. The only reason people want it is because they think the price will be higher tomorrow. But the same can be said about lots of assets, like comic books and Pokemon cards and fine art. Bubbles can last a long time.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: CalBears96 on October 19, 2021, 06:55:22 PM
Even though "Big Short" guy think it's a bubble, he's not shorting it. I mean, it is foolish to short it because it's so volatile.

I think it's a bubble too, but I'm not touching it with a ten foot pole, either long or short. It could hit $100k in a couple of months or it could drop back to $30k. It's all speculative.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on October 19, 2021, 09:03:57 PM
That article was indeed long, but with very little substance

I think it's valuable to see investors with a solid track record of spotting bubbles all in agreement here.  There is so much hype out there and lots of "mainstream" press citing big fund managers getting in on the crypto mania. 

You say "of course Bitcoin is a bubble" but that's not self-evident to a lot of people out there, including some that have posted on this thread.  If it was self-evident, then Bitcoin actually wouldn't be in a a bubble.  It would be priced efficiently for what it is - a decentralized currency useful for black market transactions.

Comic books actually do have utility.  My kid read one tonight right before bed.  Pokemon cards can be used for their intended purpose, which is, of course, to play the Pokemon card game.  Art can be hung on the wall and appreciated.  Each of these things can be speculated on for financial gain, but underlying these speculator's markets are robust collector's markets that actually desire to own and appreciate the items for what they are.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on October 19, 2021, 09:15:16 PM
…but he won’t stand in the way of clients…like all of us at the original IHB… we knew the mortgage market would blow up, as did Burry and others.  Some of us benefitted from that knowledge and others saved themselves financially with the insight.

Jamie Dimon says bitcoin is ‘worthless’


“I personally think that bitcoin is worthless,” Dimon said during an Institute of International Finance event on Monday, CNBC Pro reported.

But, “I don’t want to be a spokesperson — I don’t care. It makes no difference to me,” he said. “Our clients are adults. They disagree. That’s what makes markets. So, if they want to have access to buy yourself bitcoin, we can’t custody it but we can give them legitimate, as clean as possible, access.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/11/jpmorgan-chase-ceo-jamie-dimon-says-bitcoin-is-worthless.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/11/jpmorgan-chase-ceo-jamie-dimon-says-bitcoin-is-worthless.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on October 19, 2021, 11:24:14 PM
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 21, 2021, 10:23:41 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/bitcoin-briefly-crashed-87-8-143639198.html


Here we go again with the flash crash.

Man, if I had any BT, I probably have a heart attacked already.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Goriot on October 21, 2021, 08:44:22 PM
Looks like this is down to 136. I keep on getting tempted with crypto haven’t piled the trigger. My gut told me to buy BTC when it hit 28k recently and it would have turned out very well. Coulda woulda shoulda.
[/quote]

Hope you bought some at around 136.  SOL is back above $200 now.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: qwerty on October 21, 2021, 11:02:09 PM
Looks like this is down to 136. I keep on getting tempted with crypto haven’t piled the trigger. My gut told me to buy BTC when it hit 28k recently and it would have turned out very well. Coulda woulda shoulda.

Hope you bought some at around 136.  SOL is back above $200 now.
[/quote]

I did not. Next time BTC gets in the 30,000s I’ll pull the trigger
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: paydawg on October 22, 2021, 10:32:13 AM
Looks like this is down to 136. I keep on getting tempted with crypto haven’t piled the trigger. My gut told me to buy BTC when it hit 28k recently and it would have turned out very well. Coulda woulda shoulda.

Hope you bought some at around 136.  SOL is back above $200 now.

I did not. Next time BTC gets in the 30,000s I’ll pull the trigger
[/quote]

"Next time"....I hope that works for you (and me, since I'm in the same boat)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on October 22, 2021, 11:45:07 AM
Looks like this is down to 136. I keep on getting tempted with crypto haven’t piled the trigger. My gut told me to buy BTC when it hit 28k recently and it would have turned out very well. Coulda woulda shoulda.

Hope you bought some at around 136.  SOL is back above $200 now.

I did not. Next time BTC gets in the 30,000s I’ll pull the trigger
[/quote]

You could of bought partial btc through paypal, robinhood, etc…
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on November 17, 2021, 08:43:05 AM
The end is neigh...Repent!!! Repent!! ;D ;D >:D

The Staples Center—home of the Los Angeles Lakers—is getting a new name: the Crypto.com Arena


https://fortune.com/2021/11/17/crypto-staples-center-new-title-sponsor-renaming-los-angeles-lakers-clippers/ (https://fortune.com/2021/11/17/crypto-staples-center-new-title-sponsor-renaming-los-angeles-lakers-clippers/)

The Stadium Curse: Naming Deals Gone Bust

When a company spends millions to put their company name on a major stadium, controversy often follows as the value of such an expenditure is difficult to track. Major stadium naming deals have also seen another trend: corporate failures.

Throughout the booms and busts of the American economy, many companies who have chosen to embark on a naming rights contract have seen their companies suffer financially or even collapse within several years of a naming deal. Although external, indirectly related factors are certainly at play, the correlation is quite impressive: In many cases naming deals parallel a corporate “boom” spending mentality that contributes to a company’s weakness when a bubble bursts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2010/01/20/The-Stadium-Curse:-Naming-Deals-Gone-Bust.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2010/01/20/The-Stadium-Curse:-Naming-Deals-Gone-Bust.html)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 17, 2021, 09:33:01 AM
The end is neigh...Repent!!! Repent!! ;D ;D >:D

The Staples Center—home of the Los Angeles Lakers—is getting a new name: the Crypto.com Arena


https://fortune.com/2021/11/17/crypto-staples-center-new-title-sponsor-renaming-los-angeles-lakers-clippers/ (https://fortune.com/2021/11/17/crypto-staples-center-new-title-sponsor-renaming-los-angeles-lakers-clippers/)

The Stadium Curse: Naming Deals Gone Bust

When a company spends millions to put their company name on a major stadium, controversy often follows as the value of such an expenditure is difficult to track. Major stadium naming deals have also seen another trend: corporate failures.

Throughout the booms and busts of the American economy, many companies who have chosen to embark on a naming rights contract have seen their companies suffer financially or even collapse within several years of a naming deal. Although external, indirectly related factors are certainly at play, the correlation is quite impressive: In many cases naming deals parallel a corporate “boom” spending mentality that contributes to a company’s weakness when a bubble bursts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2010/01/20/The-Stadium-Curse:-Naming-Deals-Gone-Bust.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2010/01/20/The-Stadium-Curse:-Naming-Deals-Gone-Bust.html)

The one I remember is Ameriquest Field in Arlington, Texas.  Deal signed in 2004 - 30 years for $75 million - and revoked in 2007 when lenders started dropping like flies.

I've always viewed these stadium names as an ego trip for the founders and executives, rather than as a wise use of dollars.  Has anybody ever made a consumer purchase because they liked the name of a stadium?  I know I haven't. 

Particularly for companies with less than 10 years of operating history, it's probably an excellent red flag indicator of poor management.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: zubs on November 18, 2021, 09:54:59 AM
Pool our money and call it TI stadium.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Cares on November 18, 2021, 10:16:06 AM
Crip Stadium...perfect for LA. Bloods aren't going to like this one bit though.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on December 04, 2021, 12:03:23 AM
Crypto taking a deep dive.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: sleepy5136 on December 04, 2021, 10:20:34 AM
Crypto taking a deep dive.
BTFD?
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on December 04, 2021, 10:55:57 AM
Crypto taking a deep dive.
BTFD?

Fuc yah. I bought btc around $43 .  ;)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on December 08, 2021, 08:40:01 AM
No rules...no recourse...have fun...

Coinbase customers demand refunds over GYEN stablecoin glitch

Outraged customers of Coinbase say the company has locked them out of their accounts after “technical reasons” forced it to halt trading GYEN last month.
Customers around the country told CNBC they can’t get answers from the company.
Coinbase says it “continues to work around the clock to restore full trading on the Coinbase retail app,” but refused to comment further.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/coinbase-customers-demand-refunds-over-gyen-stablecoin-glitch.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: fatduck on December 10, 2021, 12:35:22 PM
Yeah regulated brokerages would never do such a thing
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on December 10, 2021, 01:06:22 PM
Yeah regulated brokerages would never do such a thing

Hodl  :)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 04, 2022, 09:09:47 AM
Apple Has Now Outperformed Bitcoin in the Last Year (With Much Less Volatility)
Quote
Apple Inc. just briefly breached the $3 trillion mark. Not only that, it has officially outperformed Bitcoin over the last year.

Apple is up more than 40% over the last year, whereas Bitcoin is up just over 38% during that time.

So not only have you gotten paid more to hold Apple than Bitcoin over the last year, you didn’t have to suffer much in the way of stomach-turning drawdowns.

Bitcoin had a greater than 50% drawdown from last April to its July low. And then another 31% drawdown since its November peak. By contrast, Apple’s biggest drawdown came early in the year, and it was closer to 19%.

Over the last year at least, you had to stomach some pretty big swings to get returns that aren’t as good as the company that makes your phone.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/apple-aapl-stock-outperformed-bitcoin-in-the-last-year-with-less-volatility
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 04, 2022, 09:12:12 AM
The end is neigh...

Matt Damon’s sold his soul for crypto’: Actor is roasted on social media for commercial in which he tells people to invest in Bitcoin because ’fortune favors the brave’
Matt Damon spearheaded a commercial for cryptocurrency that aired during Sunday's NFL games and has made Twitter users cringe
The ad likened purchasing Bitcoin to landing on the moon as Damon strolled down a sci-fi-esque hallway talking about how 'history is filled with almosts'
Vignettes nodded to explorers sailing and climbing Mount Everest, as well as nods to the Wright Brothers, before flashing 'Crypto.com' at the last second
Crypto.com, which sells cryptocurrency and NFTs, donates $1m to Water.org, a nonprofit co-founded by Damon that brings safe, clean water to people in need
Many users tweeted that they felt as if the actor, 51, was calling them a p***y for not spending their life savings on crypto such as a '$378,000 cartoon ape'
One tweet called the ad an insult to Damon's 'own cinematic legacy from The Martian,' where he played an astronaut stranded on Mars

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10365337/Matt-Damon-roasted-ad-telling-people-invest-Bitcoin-fortune-favors-brave.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 04, 2022, 10:11:37 AM
The end is neigh...

Matt Damon’s sold his soul for crypto’: Actor is roasted on social media for commercial in which he tells people to invest in Bitcoin because ’fortune favors the brave’
Matt Damon spearheaded a commercial for cryptocurrency that aired during Sunday's NFL games and has made Twitter users cringe
The ad likened purchasing Bitcoin to landing on the moon as Damon strolled down a sci-fi-esque hallway talking about how 'history is filled with almosts'
Vignettes nodded to explorers sailing and climbing Mount Everest, as well as nods to the Wright Brothers, before flashing 'Crypto.com' at the last second
Crypto.com, which sells cryptocurrency and NFTs, donates $1m to Water.org, a nonprofit co-founded by Damon that brings safe, clean water to people in need
Many users tweeted that they felt as if the actor, 51, was calling them a p***y for not spending their life savings on crypto such as a '$378,000 cartoon ape'
One tweet called the ad an insult to Damon's 'own cinematic legacy from The Martian,' where he played an astronaut stranded on Mars

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10365337/Matt-Damon-roasted-ad-telling-people-invest-Bitcoin-fortune-favors-brave.html

It does remind me of when Ed McMahon and Gary Coleman (RIP to both), along with MC Hammer, were making those "WE BUY GOLD!!!" commercials about 10-12 years ago.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: CalBears96 on January 04, 2022, 11:43:53 AM
I would rather put my money in Apple than Bitcoin.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on January 04, 2022, 12:45:54 PM
I would rather put my money in Apple than Bitcoin.

Never say never  ;)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 06, 2022, 11:54:36 AM
With yesterday's drop, Bitcoin is now lagging the broader stock market (S&P, Dow) over 12 months.  The current crash ($69k --> $43k) is at -38%.

(Although measuring a peak-to-trough crash is now called #cherrypicking by CalBears and IHO...LOL)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: sleepy5136 on January 08, 2022, 07:55:11 PM
With yesterday's drop, Bitcoin is now lagging the broader stock market (S&P, Dow) over 12 months.  The current crash ($69k --> $43k) is at -38%.

(Although measuring a peak-to-trough crash is now called #cherrypicking by CalBears and IHO...LOL)
For something that volatile, looking back in history, they are pretty short lived ~3months. We are 2 months from the top currently. In the end, it's not really an issue if you're not selling.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on January 08, 2022, 08:13:00 PM
With yesterday's drop, Bitcoin is now lagging the broader stock market (S&P, Dow) over 12 months.  The current crash ($69k --> $43k) is at -38%.
 
(Although measuring a peak-to-trough crash is now called #cherrypicking by CalBears and IHO...LOL)
For something that volatile, looking back in history, they are pretty short lived ~3months. We are 2 months from the top currently. In the end, it's not really an issue if you're not selling.

Diamond hands!  :) ;)
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 12, 2022, 08:25:56 AM
Built by criminals...for criminals...

Kim Kardashian and Floyd Mayweather are sued over 'crypto pump and dump scam': New York resident files lawsuit claiming he 'suffered losses' investing in EMAX tokens promoted by stars that plunged 98% in value
Lawsuit filed against EMAX and celebs in Los Angeles federal court on January 7
It claims they touted crypto tokens to boost prices and make themselves profit 
The complaint is proposed as a class-action lawsuit, meaning others can join
EMAX dispute the allegations and say they 'look forward to the truth coming out'
Figures show EMAX plummeted by 98% just weeks after celebrities endorsed it
Kim's Insta advert alone reached one in five adults in US and 30% of crypto users

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10392641/Kim-Kardashian-Floyd-Mayweather-sued-promotion-crypto-token.html
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: aquabliss on January 12, 2022, 10:23:50 AM
Never heard of this thing.  Current Value:

EthereumMax Price (EMAX)
$0.0000000177
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: daedalus on January 12, 2022, 10:39:05 PM
"Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I ask you, would any reasonable person think it wise to take financial advice from either Kim Kardashian or someone who made a living getting punched in the head? 

Your honor, I rest my case."
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Compressed-Village on January 14, 2022, 08:49:26 AM
There are litterally 10,000+ of different digital coins in existence. So this is still over price. The real price EMAX,,,,NOTHING. No doubt BTC will survive after this shakeout, but it is worth far less than where they are now.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 14, 2022, 09:14:29 AM
I have little doubt that some will survive (criminals need a currency too).  Which one and what form? (Myspace) is an open question.  People will lose a lot of money finding out.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: Compressed-Village on January 14, 2022, 10:07:29 AM
Not only bitcoins, I would say that the highly lever entities would get crush. The real problem is the FED wait too long and when they crossed the rubicon of back stop everything and inflation is at 15 % is the real #, now they have no choice.

Biden presidency is at risks. He might be a one term pres.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 14, 2022, 11:06:23 AM
Biden presidency is at risks. He might be a one term pres.

US is so polarized now... any president would be at risk. One term may be the new normal.
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 14, 2022, 11:12:07 AM
Biden presidency is at risks. He might be a one term pres.

US is so polarized now... any president would be at risk. One term may be the new normal.

...in a row... ;D ;D >:D
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: morekaos on January 20, 2022, 09:34:05 PM
Worse than the roll of the dice….

Cryptocurrencies tumble, with bitcoin falling 7% and ether down 8% in the last 24 hours

Bitcoin plummeted by more than 7% in the last 24 hours, and ether dived more than 8%, according to CoinDesk.
It came after Wall Street’s losses on Thursday, with the Nasdaq down almost 5% this week, and the S&P 500 into its third straight week of losses.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/21/cryptocurrencies-bitcoin-falls-7percent-
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 20, 2022, 10:35:24 PM
7%!!

That's like Irvine real estate dropping 5-10%!
Title: Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
Post by: eyephone on January 20, 2022, 10:48:26 PM
7%!!

That's like Irvine real estate dropping 5-10%!

Btfd?  :)
SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2022, SimplePortal