Talk Irvine

General => Economy & Finance => Topic started by: irvinehomeowner on January 10, 2011, 11:54:12 AM

Title: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 10, 2011, 11:54:12 AM
The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:
If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.   Trust me.   ;)
Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 10, 2011, 01:10:22 PM
The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:
If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.   Trust me.   ;)
Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: octrends on January 10, 2011, 07:41:10 PM
The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:
If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.   Trust me.   ;)
Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.

where do u think QE money is going?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 10, 2011, 10:40:06 PM
The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:
If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.   Trust me.   ;)
Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.

where do u think QE money is going?

QE money is going to buying treasuries, its not going to stocks.  The intended lower yields are supposed to push people into stocks.  Are you saying QE is going directly to equities?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 10, 2011, 11:21:08 PM
The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:
If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.   Trust me.   ;)
Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.

where do u think QE money is going?

QE money is going to buying treasuries, its not going to stocks.  The intended lower yields are supposed to push people into stocks.  Are you saying QE is going directly to equities?
It is going into equities indirectly via psychology...think of it as an invisible safety net for stocks that the Fed signaled to the markets.  I've been betting that we won't have a big crash via selling VIX (volatility) way-out-the-money calls with the goal of making $3k-$5k per month since the beginning of the year.  Took some big losses back in May due to the calls going through my stop limit losses but since then I haven't had a losing month with some big months in Sept. and Dec.  Remember, the trend is your friend (until it's not a good trend).  ;)  I learned to better hedge my VIX positions by buying VIX calls, buying SPY (S&P) puts, and other ETFs.

I'll tell you this, the higher we keep grinding the more painful of a correction we will have.  When the market begins to get a hint that the Fed will be taking away the sugar rush (QE and low rates) WATCH OUT!  Europe may also be that annoying cold slap of reality (those damn socialists).  I have a few friends that have tracked my strategy (on a smaller level) with some good success too. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Panda on January 11, 2011, 09:18:28 AM
IHO you give me more credit than i deserve as my knowledge about the market is probably more limited than yours. I realized early on that i am terrible trader (God did not gift me in this area), but i am usually right about the long term trends. I am currently heavily short the DOW (trader), but still hold my long term positions in Gold, Silver, Energy, & Agriculture (investor).

I see a trend in the DOW that changes every 20 year cycle. If my crystal ball is correct we will end up 10 - 15% give or take where we started in the DOW in January 2000 by 2020. Also listen to the little bird inside and do not listen to anyone when the right time to buy stocks and real estate. I knew when the dollar index reach 89 in June 2010 and I need to sell the dollar and buy the Euro. I posted if i should make this dollar/Euro trade on TalkIrvine, and my friend Trojanman aka "Martin" posted "NO Panda don't do it, the EURO is about the collapse!" Unfortunately i listened to Martin Hahaha... i knew I should have listened to the little bird inside :)

     

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:
If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.   Trust me.   ;)
Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 11, 2011, 07:59:34 PM
IHO you give me more credit than i deserve as my knowledge about the market is probably more limited than yours. I realized early on that i am terrible trader (God did not gift me in this area), but i am usually right about the long term trends. I am currently heavily short the DOW (trader), but still hold my long term positions in Gold, Silver, Energy, & Agriculture (investor).

I see a trend in the DOW that changes every 20 year cycle. If my crystal ball is correct we will end up 10 - 15% give or take where we started in the DOW in January 2000 by 2020. Also listen to the little bird inside and do not listen to anyone when the right time to buy stocks and real estate. I knew when the dollar index reach 89 in June 2010 and I need to sell the dollar and buy the Euro. I posted if i should make this dollar/Euro trade on TalkIrvine, and my friend Trojanman aka "Martin" posted "NO Panda don't do it, the EURO is about the collapse!" Unfortunately i listened to Martin Hahaha... i knew I should have listened to the little bird inside :)

     

The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:
If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.   Trust me.   ;)
Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.
Currency trading is something that I have no luck with at all.  I still think the EURO will be in trouble but I guess I didn't see QE2 coming.  I seem to do better with my VIX option trading so I'll stick to that.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 11, 2011, 08:01:23 PM
No suprise, very predictable
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: octrends on January 14, 2011, 06:16:05 PM
The member sonoma reminded me of a topic I've been wanted to post:
If the Dow keeps moving up, Irvine won't need your business.   Trust me.   ;)
Does anyone find it amazing that the Dow is back up to its Sept 2008 levels before the big crash?

Was the summer dip below 10k the double-dip everyone talked about or are we expecting another drop?

I will admit that my knowledge of stocks and investments is limited (unlike Mr. Panda) but it's hard to understand how well the market is doing considering all our gov budgets are in the red, unemployment is so high and housing is still depressed. The last shopping season seemed busy, online sales were up from last year and restaurants I go to are always busy... where is this spending coming from?

But then if I knew... I could probably afford a 4CWG in Shady.

im with you IHO - i dont understand how high it is, all the fundamentals (from my very limited knowledge) indicate that it should be lower, but it seems like the traders believe the fed will just continue printing money or the govt wont let (will try at least) any major company fail. Outside of these two reason im not sure why the market is so high. I would expect a decrease in the market in 2011 but like you said if i knew what i was talking about i would not have a 9 to 5.

where do u think QE money is going?

QE money is going to buying treasuries, its not going to stocks.  The intended lower yields are supposed to push people into stocks.  Are you saying QE is going directly to equities?



Here's the link

Rep. Alan Grayson: "Has the Federal Reserve Ever Tried to Manipulate the Stock Market?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXmNpdYpfnk

there's a indirect acceptance that they do place orders thru Primary Dealers, and who r these primary dealers, it's the top 4 banks.

see carefully around 3 min or so.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Noma on January 16, 2011, 11:44:29 PM
In all seriousness, I think it is very important to understand your investment vehicles, whether it be in the housing market, stock market, bonds, or whatever.  If you are working for the man, then the only way to get ahead in the U.S. is to be frugal with your money and invest what you save. 

I would not let the other man (mutual fund advisor or money advisor) take a cut of your profits.  If you really want to learn more about the stock market I would recommend a subscription to Barron's. 

My take about the stock market is this, the Dow consist of the biggest 30 companies in America.  Well, these companies make roughly 30-40% of their profit from overseas.  With many major countries already out of a recession, these big companies are doing rather well.  Now, on top of this, the U.S. Is printing a lot of money each month, eventually there will be inflation.  This will lead to higher prices in goods.  When this happens employers normally give 3 percent raises each year. So...the economy will be humming along.  Eventually, the government will raise taxes to pay down their debt, but by that time every will be drinking the koolaid and won't care. 

And then the next cycle starts all over again.   :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 07, 2012, 10:36:04 AM
Hey Panda/Baby Irvine... what is your next prediction for the Dow?

Your "won't hit 13k" hasn't been working out... care to course correct?

Still hard to believe, Dow is highest since 2007, where is all this investor money coming from... probably the banks. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Homer_Simpson on September 07, 2012, 11:25:54 AM
Hey Panda/Baby Irvine... what is your next prediction for the Dow?

Your "won't hit 13k" hasn't been working out... care to course correct?

Still hard to believe, Dow is highest since 2007, where is all this investor money coming from... probably the banks. :)

I can tell you but then I have to kill you!!  ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on September 11, 2012, 10:23:57 PM
Told you ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2013, 07:32:21 AM
Hey Panda/Baby Irvine... care to comment on the 15k mark the Dow hit yesterday?

You may be right about John's Creek, but you have been very off about the Dow.

I want to hear your explanation because I admire people who can admit and explain their mistakes (still waiting on USC for his $40 call on Netflix too).
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 08, 2013, 07:51:23 AM
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

Did you go all out and put your money in stocks because u knew the Dow was going to hit 15k?

When panda made his call I would have thought we would have seen 13k first before 15k.

I just bought SDS a couple of days ago cause I think it will go back own to about 14.5k and then back to 15k. Until whatever bad news hits which makes everyone run from stocks.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2013, 08:52:40 AM
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.
Whoah... easy... I respect Panda's knowledge and want to hear WHY he was wrong... not THAT he was wrong.

When people take a stance and give you good reasons why (or sometimes not), when it doesn't turn out that way, it's educational to hear why they think things happened the way they happened.

I did not think the Dow would hit 15k either... but I didn't really see any reason why it would not hit 13k.

For example, Liar Loan doesn't think this run-up is sustainable and he explained the "why"... and he will explain the "why not" if it doesn't work out how he expected because that's how he is... and I learn from that.

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market and I don't do option trading like USC so I have very little knowledge of the ins and outs of the market, so I ask these questions because I like to hear from those who know more than I do.

Don't get so "hung up" on my thirst for knowledge. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 08, 2013, 10:34:49 AM
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.
Whoah... easy... I respect Panda's knowledge and want to hear WHY he was wrong... not THAT he was wrong.

When people take a stance and give you good reasons why (or sometimes not), when it doesn't turn out that way, it's educational to hear why they think things happened the way they happened.

I did not think the Dow would hit 15k either... but I didn't really see any reason why it would not hit 13k.

For example, Liar Loan doesn't think this run-up is sustainable and he explained the "why"... and he will explain the "why not" if it doesn't work out how he expected because that's how he is... and I learn from that.

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market and I don't do option trading like USC so I have very little knowledge of the ins and outs of the market, so I ask these questions because I like to hear from those who know more than I do.

Don't get so "hung up" on my thirst for knowledge. :)

you are forgiven grasshopper.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on May 08, 2013, 10:49:47 AM
Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Just to be clear, I'm still long the market for now, but I'm trying to position everything to be prepared for a crash when/if it happens.  I believe it will happen once investors anticipate rate increases from the Fed.  For now, let's all enjoy the "free" money.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on May 08, 2013, 11:01:10 AM
As usual I am in complete agreement with LL.  I do hold open a hedging VIXY position just in case, but for now...don't step in front of a speeding train.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 08, 2013, 11:32:47 AM
Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on May 08, 2013, 12:21:36 PM
The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.

Well, true investing has nothing to do with gambling.  If you approach it like one of your RE investments, looking for good cashflow opportunity, you will be fine in the long run.  The short term swings in the market will come and go.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 08, 2013, 12:36:55 PM
Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.
It's definitely not easy.  However, what makes it easier for me is that I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX.  I also play options on companies that I know right before earnings, but those are my smaller plays.  The trading that I do with the VIX/VXX is definitely for at-risk capital and not for people who are risk adverse.  Because I take on and tolerate a good amount of risk, my returns are like 5-10x higher than what the S&P has returned...that's not to say that I don't use protection and/or stop losses.  The one nice benefit of trading VIX options is that they are considered 1256 contracts and so gains on those trades are automatically 40% short term and 60% loan term. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Panda on May 12, 2013, 06:49:40 PM
Haha... IHO. calling me out. Alright I will admit that i was wrong about 15,000 DOW, but you have to agree with me that the stock market is on crack right now.

But in my defense, you print me a trillion dollars and send it to me and I will show you hell of a time in Johns Creek. Forget Johns Creek, I will show you a hell a good time in Newport Coast  :-*
 
Hey Panda/Baby Irvine... care to comment on the 15k mark the Dow hit yesterday?

You may be right about John's Creek, but you have been very off about the Dow.

I want to hear your explanation because I admire people who can admit and explain their mistakes (still waiting on USC for his $40 call on Netflix too).
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Panda on May 12, 2013, 07:02:58 PM
Such great wisdom from the Trojanman.

It's like taking the SATs. You spend all your time studying and mastering every question possible in the critical reasoning section and not study anything else. You fail the analogy section, you fail reading comprehension, you fail sentence completion, you fail the entire math section, however in critical reasoning section you score in the 95%. In the real world, you will probably get a rejection letter from every community college, but in the real investing world.... you can do very well year after year.

"I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX."

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.
It's definitely not easy.  However, what makes it easier for me is that I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX.  I also play options on companies that I know right before earnings, but those are my smaller plays.  The trading that I do with the VIX/VXX is definitely for at-risk capital and not for people who are risk adverse.  Because I take on and tolerate a good amount of risk, my returns are like 5-10x higher than what the S&P has returned...that's not to say that I don't use protection and/or stop losses.  The one nice benefit of trading VIX options is that they are considered 1256 contracts and so gains on those trades are automatically 40% short term and 60% loan term. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 12, 2013, 08:22:34 PM
So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: snowblind40 on May 13, 2013, 12:07:23 PM
Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.
It's definitely not easy.  However, what makes it easier for me is that I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX.  I also play options on companies that I know right before earnings, but those are my smaller plays.  The trading that I do with the VIX/VXX is definitely for at-risk capital and not for people who are risk adverse.  Because I take on and tolerate a good amount of risk, my returns are like 5-10x higher than what the S&P has returned...that's not to say that I don't use protection and/or stop losses.  The one nice benefit of trading VIX options is that they are considered 1256 contracts and so gains on those trades are automatically 40% short term and 60% loan term.

Can you explain this VIX/VXX option trading that you do? We're did you learn how to do this? Any links to learn more about this method you speak of?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Panda on May 13, 2013, 12:49:00 PM
Iho, I know you are a smart guy. On yahoo finance take a look at the dow chart from 1995 to 2013
Next pull a dow chart from 1955-1980.

You tell me what is going to happen to the dow.

Notice how the dollar is strengthening since feb 2013 while the stock market is on fire. I saw this coming and shorted the euro hard at 1.36.



So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 13, 2013, 04:23:52 PM
Iho, I know you are a smart guy. On yahoo finance take a look at the dow chart from 1995 to 2013
Next pull a dow chart from 1955-1980.

You tell me what is going to happen to the dow.

Notice how the dollar is strengthening since feb 2013 while the stock market is on fire. I saw this coming and shorted the euro hard at 1.36.



So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?
I'm not the one who made the "won't hit 13k" call.

To be clear, can you explain the reasons why the Dow did pass 13k, when you thought it wouldn't, and has even moved into record 15k territory.

I understand you don't think it will keep going up, but what I would like to know is you had reasons why you thought it wouldn't get above 13k, but it did.

Anyone can say "It's cyclical"... but when you call out specific marks, then there needs to be other evidence that supports it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Panda on May 13, 2013, 10:18:14 PM
IHO, I underestimated the impact of money printing and how it can inflate the DOW and I don't know of anyone who predicted that it would get this high.

I do know that this is not sustainable.   

Iho, I know you are a smart guy. On yahoo finance take a look at the dow chart from 1995 to 2013
Next pull a dow chart from 1955-1980.

You tell me what is going to happen to the dow.

Notice how the dollar is strengthening since feb 2013 while the stock market is on fire. I saw this coming and shorted the euro hard at 1.36.



So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?
I'm not the one who made the "won't hit 13k" call.

To be clear, can you explain the reasons why the Dow did pass 13k, when you thought it wouldn't, and has even moved into record 15k territory.

I understand you don't think it will keep going up, but what I would like to know is you had reasons why you thought it wouldn't get above 13k, but it did.

Anyone can say "It's cyclical"... but when you call out specific marks, then there needs to be other evidence that supports it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on May 15, 2013, 07:58:53 AM
IHO, I underestimated the impact of money printing and how it can inflate the DOW and I don't know of anyone who predicted that it would get this high.

I do know that this is not sustainable.   

It is sustainable.  It is sustainable via inflation.  That is the only path left.

The alternative at this point is not feasible.  Literally, multiple governments and countries will collapse.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: SoCal on May 15, 2013, 05:18:20 PM
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

I had the same thoughts reading this thread. It's the compulsion to correct other people, as I've been reminded again recently being the latest one on the receiving end. Everybody wants to be "right". Some more than others. Some have trouble letting things go. And some just can not drop it.

 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 15, 2013, 05:26:43 PM
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

I had the same thoughts reading this thread. It's the compulsion to correct other people, as I've been reminded again recently being the latest one on the receiving end. Everybody wants to be "right". Some more than others. Some have trouble letting things go. And some just can not drop it.

 
Like quoting that and bringing it back up isn't "letting things go".

I guess some just can't drop it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: SoCal on May 15, 2013, 05:48:40 PM
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.

I had the same thoughts reading this thread. It's the compulsion to correct other people, as I've been reminded again recently being the latest one on the receiving end. Everybody wants to be "right". Some more than others. Some have trouble letting things go. And some just can not drop it.

 
Like quoting that and bringing it back up isn't "letting things go".

I guess some just can't drop it.

Aww, Iho... our first real fight in 5 years. I'm getting sentimental. Now that you've gotten the last word in, which I know is super important to you and I promise to always let you have... let's hug it out. Come on, I know you secretly do like me. It's true, you can be really irritating sometimes (as can I if you only knew me in real life!) but I'm not letting you go anywhere, Mister!

(http://twinpossible.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/hugging-smiley-Huggalo.gif)

Send me a smiley hug back so we can bury the hatchet. (No, not a smiley with a hatchet!)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: daedalus on May 16, 2013, 02:55:06 AM
It is sustainable.  It is sustainable via inflation.  That is the only path left.
Do you think it is possible to inflate away old debt while keeping new debt cheap?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on May 16, 2013, 08:00:44 AM
It is sustainable.  It is sustainable via inflation.  That is the only path left.
Do you think it is possible to inflate away old debt while keeping new debt cheap?

As long as too much money is chasing nothing better to do, yes.

And there's a lot of money out there looking for a home.



But my original response is mostly tongue in cheek.  The western governments have painted themselves into a corner.  They have to sustain the current house of cards by printing money.  Eventually, it'll create run-away inflation.  Unless you think 20% annual housing gains are the new normal.

Fiat dollars buying fiat stock making fiat gains. 

In the end, the question is how many of those fiat dollars is it going to take to fill the gas tank and buy pound of chicken and veggies for dinner?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 14, 2013, 01:09:07 PM
Dow almost at 15.5k... every time I think it's going to burst, it goes higher.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 15, 2013, 11:36:51 AM
Me no know econ... "circular flow" sounds like something related to after sitting on the throne.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 20, 2013, 03:24:32 PM
Dang... 16k for a day.

When is this stock bubble going to burst?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on November 20, 2013, 06:26:23 PM
Dang... 16k for a day.

When is this stock bubble going to burst?

When you put your money in
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 20, 2013, 08:45:40 PM
It's kind of in... my 401k has been bonkers the last 2-3 years.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 26, 2013, 04:10:18 PM
16k for more than a day.

I blame the Twitter IPO.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on February 03, 2014, 02:14:28 PM
Dang... 16k for a day.

When is this stock bubble going to burst?

Dow down more than 300 today, closed at 15,372.80, down from height of 16588.

So it this the bubble bursting you are referring to?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 03, 2014, 02:24:56 PM
Dang... 16k for a day.

When is this stock bubble going to burst?

Dow down more than 300 today, closed at 15,372.80, down from height of 16588.

So it this the bubble bursting you are referring to?
I have no idea. But it has come down quite a bit from that 16.5k height.

So is this going to freefall like in 2008... I doubt it but I'm no stock guy.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on February 03, 2014, 02:35:46 PM
Dang... 16k for a day.

When is this stock bubble going to burst?

Dow down more than 300 today, closed at 15,372.80, down from height of 16588.

So it this the bubble bursting you are referring to?
I have no idea. But it has come down quite a bit from that 16.5k height.

So is this going to freefall like in 2008... I doubt it but I'm no stock guy.

morekaos should chime in, doesnt he do this stuff for a living?   my guess it bottoms out at 14,500-14,800 then maybe just goes back and forth from 14,500 to 15,000 until whatever the next catalyst upward is.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 03, 2014, 06:06:46 PM
This was what I wrote in my January 2, 2014 client letter.  So far so good.

"Now for this year.  As many of you know I have cooled my enthusiasm for equities as the rest of the world piles in late.(as usual)   I am by no means exiting the stock market but I am hedging our positions.  For those of you who have been involved these last 4 years you have built up a substantial cushion to any near term volatility.  For those late to the game get ready for a ride, but in the end it will still be the “Only game in town”.  Rates will continue their upward trend, probably as much as another full percentage point.  This will cause quite a bit of near term angst.  Precious metals and commodities will trade a range that will mostly trend down.  Housing will probably continue to flounder, buffeted by higher interest rates in the mortgage markets.  The House and Senate will revert to Republican control and thus eliminates the government from doing anything that will impede the economy (net positive).  For the fourth straight year if you sat it out in Money Market (fear) you made .11%, fully taxable (That’s $110.00 on $100,000.00 invested), the Dow Jones would have returned $29,650.00, I’ll take the markets.   Again, I see a very volatile year, mostly up and down but probably trendless.  It is the following year (2015) when things will really take off. I have included last year’s letter bellow it you want to see how things have panned out.   For now, hunker down, protect and be patient. (everyone else is suddenly bullish)  The best is yet to come but it may take a while."
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: 0$ on February 03, 2014, 06:16:35 PM
:P
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 03, 2014, 06:25:04 PM
They all lump together eventually.  It's like looking at the Matrix to me.  I see blond, brunette....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vAnuBtyEYE (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vAnuBtyEYE)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 04, 2014, 06:47:21 PM
17k.

I hope investing in Johns Creek is better. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 22, 2014, 10:11:19 AM
i was going to recommend HLF (herbalife) last night to you guys but fell asleep on the couch before i did.  Ackman came out the other day saying he would deal a "deathblow" to HLF at this mornings presentation and as a result yesterday the stock closed down 11% at about $54.  I was doing some trades on HLF and had 2,000 shares in the low 60s when this bastard announces his presentation and the stock spirals downward.  After hours last night and pre-market this morning i was down about 22K.  He was so adamant that he had great evidence of wrongdoing that he even convinced me not to average down and by some more in the low 50s. I started watching the presentation this morning and it was dud, nothing new, i knew i should have bought some more.  Stock is back at 63.09 as of this post. Made my 22k loss back today and a little pocket change.  That was probably the most entertaining trade ive made.

I thought it was illegal to spout off the way ackman does with subjective evidence at best. the guy takes a huge short position, spouts off on TV, tanks the stock and makes millions, well today he lost those millions but either way, just seems illegal. Fucking SEC.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 22, 2014, 10:16:31 AM
17k and holding now... will 18k be the new 13k? :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 22, 2014, 10:41:34 AM
Iw watched the webcast and I wasn't moved. I don't have an opinion to buy or sell. However, I wouldn't own that stock because it's to volatile. (Moves up and down frequently)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 22, 2014, 10:43:40 AM
yeah i never hold it long term, typically i buy and sell in the same day. i just got caught in the damn downward spiral so had to hold it until it recovered.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ob1 on July 22, 2014, 10:44:04 AM
Iw watched the webcast and I wasn't moved. I don't have an opinion to buy or sell. However, I wouldn't own that stock because it's to volatile. (Moves up and down frequently)

Need a qwerty reference here.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ob1 on July 24, 2014, 02:21:11 PM
i was going to recommend HLF (herbalife) last night to you guys but fell asleep on the couch before i did.  Ackman came out the other day saying he would deal a "deathblow" to HLF at this mornings presentation and as a result yesterday the stock closed down 11% at about $54.  I was doing some trades on HLF and had 2,000 shares in the low 60s when this bastard announces his presentation and the stock spirals downward.  After hours last night and pre-market this morning i was down about 22K.  He was so adamant that he had great evidence of wrongdoing that he even convinced me not to average down and by some more in the low 50s. I started watching the presentation this morning and it was dud, nothing new, i knew i should have bought some more.  Stock is back at 63.09 as of this post. Made my 22k loss back today and a little pocket change.  That was probably the most entertaining trade ive made.

I thought it was illegal to spout off the way ackman does with subjective evidence at best. the guy takes a huge short position, spouts off on TV, tanks the stock and makes millions, well today he lost those millions but either way, just seems illegal. Fucking SEC.

I'm a few days behind on this, but saw Tues. headline "Hedge fund manager cries over Herbalife."
Is this at the same time he was saying he had a smoking gun?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 24, 2014, 02:33:24 PM
yes.  monday he was everywhere saying he had the smoking gun, that what he had was going to be the deathblow to HLF and the stock dropped 11% on monday. tuesday morning at 7am PT he starts is presentation, the presentation ended at 10am PT and by the end of the day the stock was up 25%
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 25, 2014, 10:23:29 AM
At least as far as the Dow in concerned, at just past the halfway mark, we find it up 2.3% as of today.  In January I said, "Again, I see a very volatile year, mostly up and down but probably trendless."  I will stick to that prediction but notice the "media" talks about the markets as if they are up 20-30%.  Not so Joe.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 25, 2014, 01:52:47 PM
At least as far as the Dow in concerned, at just past the halfway mark, we find it up 2.3% as of today.  In January I said, "Again, I see a very volatile year, mostly up and down but probably trendless."  I will stick to that prediction but notice the "media" talks about the markets as if they are up 20-30%.  Not so Joe.
Volatility has been down a good bit this year, except for a few short lived mini spikes.  I'll take that all day long. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on September 03, 2014, 09:16:40 AM
Paging IHO - here is a buying opportunity for Apple. Down over 4% today
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Bullsback on September 03, 2014, 09:37:43 AM
Funny you posted that. First post I read after putting in my buy order was this one.  I'm normally an index investor (who supplements with individual stocks that have minimal volatility but nice dividends) but thought this was a nice time to get Apple on a buy and hold. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 03, 2014, 11:06:18 AM
4% is nothing.

On Sept 9, it's going to explode.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Bullsback on September 03, 2014, 11:12:35 AM
4% is nothing.

On Sept 9, it's going to explode.
We shall see. There will definitely be some overall volatility, but LT, still a good play, imo. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: paperboyNC on September 03, 2014, 11:25:38 AM
4% is nothing.

On Sept 9, it's going to explode.

Up or down?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on September 03, 2014, 11:30:58 AM
yeah i think IHO must be drinking this morning. not sure what he is saying.  i also think it will pop once sales #s of iphone 6 are released.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 03, 2014, 11:31:34 AM
I guess you didn't read the wsj article today re: apple. Also, Samsung just released new phones at the trade show in Berlin.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on September 03, 2014, 11:36:40 AM
I guess you didn't read the wsj article today re: apple. Also, Samsung just released new phones at the trade show in Berlin.

not concerned about the samsung VR phone. anytime you have to wear a headset with your phone that is not a good thing.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 03, 2014, 11:46:18 AM
I guess you didn't read the wsj article today re: apple. Also, Samsung just released new phones at the trade show in Berlin.

not concerned about the samsung VR phone. anytime you have to wear a headset with your phone that is not a good thing.

Wsj article: analyst said sell before earnings
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on September 03, 2014, 11:55:16 AM
I guess you didn't read the wsj article today re: apple. Also, Samsung just released new phones at the trade show in Berlin.

not concerned about the samsung VR phone. anytime you have to wear a headset with your phone that is not a good thing.

Wsj article: analyst said sell before earnings

yeah sell the news, i know. but i think the sales numbers are going to better than what analysts think
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 03, 2014, 11:57:38 AM
I guess you didn't read the wsj article today re: apple. Also, Samsung just released new phones at the trade show in Berlin.

not concerned about the samsung VR phone. anytime you have to wear a headset with your phone that is not a good thing.

Wsj article: analyst said sell before earnings

yeah sell the news, i know. but i think the sales numbers are going to better than what analysts think

Who knows?  :D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 03, 2014, 12:04:15 PM
Pro "analysis" of AAPL is always wrong one way or the other. They say it will under perform and then it goes bonkers. Then they set a high bar for earnings and when it doesn't come that close it drops a bit because it "failed" (although what they did earn is redic).

Over the long term, AAPL just keeps going up... so these blips are just that, like bullsback (that's SBACK qwerter!) said.

The iPhone 6 is a major event for Apple, moreso than when the iPhone 5 released. People underestimate the group think of the iSheep... every year, all the analysts say Apple won't sell that many iPhones and each time, the actual numbers are higher. You can already see the halo affect with competitors like Samsung. Their sales are slower because because people are waiting to see what "The Next Big Thing" is.

Personally, I would get an Galaxy S5, the water proofing alone is worth it. But I know that everyone and their mom will want to get their hands on the bigger iPhone 6, even if it cost $100 more than last year's model. It's a disease.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 03, 2014, 12:50:17 PM
There are other stocks that don't carry that "I don't know risk" that are out there.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Bullsback on September 03, 2014, 01:30:18 PM
I guess you didn't read the wsj article today re: apple. Also, Samsung just released new phones at the trade show in Berlin.

not concerned about the samsung VR phone. anytime you have to wear a headset with your phone that is not a good thing.

Wsj article: analyst said sell before earnings
A few analysts have said that and it is more from the perspective for people to lock in their gains, since there are a lot of people who have seen some quality gains on Apple over the recent 3-12 months. You sell and then can re-enter after the hooplay from the release. I expect Iphone 6 to have very strong sales and the new Ipad with bigger screen to also be very successful.  Not very concerned with the latest Samsung gadgets either (and I am very pro Samsung). Apple just has a unique way of turning water into wine. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Tarmacpro on September 03, 2014, 09:43:59 PM
I really like AAPL also and this might be an opportunity to stock up on some shares.  However, I really like GILD.  I bought in April and even now there's so much room for growth with the EPS at around 12 based on earnings forecast.  Truly amazing!  I'm looking forward to what the next two years has to hold for GILD.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on September 03, 2014, 09:46:52 PM
I really like AAPL also and this might be an opportunity to stock up on some shares.  However, I really like GILD.  I bought in April and even now there's so much room for growth with the EPS at around 12 based on earnings forecast.  Truly amazing!  I'm looking forward to what the next two years has to hold for GILD.

I like GILD as well.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on September 03, 2014, 10:17:36 PM
Not everyone agrees but that is why we have a market.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101969163 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101969163)

Apple stock heading to $80 per share, trader says


Apple stock saw its worst day in seven months, leading bearish trader Brian Kelly to say on Wednesday that shares were likely heading toward $80.

"I do think this is probably not the end of this selloff," he said. "In the longer term, I think it's probably $80."

On CNBC's "Fast Money," the founder of Brian Kelly Capital, who covered a short during Apple's grind higher last month, said that he wasn't tempted to get back in the stock.

"I don't know where it's going to end. It's going to end at $88 or $89," he said. "I'd rather wait a month, see what the product launch is, see if there's an ecosystem build going out there and then take a peek at it."

Apple stock closed at $98.94 per share, down 4.22 percent on Wednesday. The company is widely expected to release its new iPhone 6 and possibly a smartwatch next Tuesday.
Private Advisor Group's Guy Adami shared Kelly's bearish view of the stock.

"If it gets below $98, I don't think you step in right away," he said. "I think there's a real chance that if it disappoints in anyway next week, you could see a stock that could trade down to the high $80s, high $80s meaning $88."

Karen Finerman of Metropolitan Capital Advisors said she was holding a wary position.

"I can't think of a stock that is more prone to sentiment changes than Apple, and I feel like the sentiment is actually changing a little bit here. And so I'd stay out of the way," she said. "I'm not going to cover my calls for a little while. I'm going to watch."
However, OptionMonster's Pete Najarian jumped in after seeing heavy options trading in Apple stock.

"Over 2 million options total. It led everything, including all the indexes as far as how much volume was trading in there today. One-point-three million of those were calls. Extremely aggressive, and as a matter of fact, the implied volatility of the options today skyrocketed today from 24 to 36 percent in the Sept. 12," he said.

Najarian added that he expected the stock to climb well over the $100 mark.

"I still think at some point in time this stock gets to $110. I think in the short-term we still could test somewhere near that $105, maybe push up toward $107," he said. "That's why I bought those options today. I like the paper."
 
 Apple stock is heading to $80, said bearish trader Brian Kelly. "I do think this is probably not the end of this selloff."
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: socal123 on September 28, 2014, 11:08:25 PM
Not everyone agrees but that is why we have a market.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101969163 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101969163)

Apple stock heading to $80 per share, trader says


Apple stock saw its worst day in seven months, leading bearish trader Brian Kelly to say on Wednesday that shares were likely heading toward $80.

"I do think this is probably not the end of this selloff," he said. "In the longer term, I think it's probably $80."

On CNBC's "Fast Money," the founder of Brian Kelly Capital, who covered a short during Apple's grind higher last month, said that he wasn't tempted to get back in the stock.

"I don't know where it's going to end. It's going to end at $88 or $89," he said. "I'd rather wait a month, see what the product launch is, see if there's an ecosystem build going out there and then take a peek at it."

Apple stock closed at $98.94 per share, down 4.22 percent on Wednesday. The company is widely expected to release its new iPhone 6 and possibly a smartwatch next Tuesday.
Private Advisor Group's Guy Adami shared Kelly's bearish view of the stock.

"If it gets below $98, I don't think you step in right away," he said. "I think there's a real chance that if it disappoints in anyway next week, you could see a stock that could trade down to the high $80s, high $80s meaning $88."

Karen Finerman of Metropolitan Capital Advisors said she was holding a wary position.

"I can't think of a stock that is more prone to sentiment changes than Apple, and I feel like the sentiment is actually changing a little bit here. And so I'd stay out of the way," she said. "I'm not going to cover my calls for a little while. I'm going to watch."
However, OptionMonster's Pete Najarian jumped in after seeing heavy options trading in Apple stock.

"Over 2 million options total. It led everything, including all the indexes as far as how much volume was trading in there today. One-point-three million of those were calls. Extremely aggressive, and as a matter of fact, the implied volatility of the options today skyrocketed today from 24 to 36 percent in the Sept. 12," he said.

Najarian added that he expected the stock to climb well over the $100 mark.

"I still think at some point in time this stock gets to $110. I think in the short-term we still could test somewhere near that $105, maybe push up toward $107," he said. "That's why I bought those options today. I like the paper."
 
 Apple stock is heading to $80, said bearish trader Brian Kelly. "I do think this is probably not the end of this selloff."


IMO AAPL 150 by end of year
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on September 29, 2014, 10:00:23 AM
IMO AAPL 150 by end of year

I love your optimism.  I'll be really happy if AAPL can ends above 110 by year's end. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 29, 2014, 07:40:47 PM
Not everyone agrees but that is why we have a market.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101969163 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101969163)

Apple stock heading to $80 per share, trader says


Apple stock saw its worst day in seven months, leading bearish trader Brian Kelly to say on Wednesday that shares were likely heading toward $80.

"I do think this is probably not the end of this selloff," he said. "In the longer term, I think it's probably $80."

On CNBC's "Fast Money," the founder of Brian Kelly Capital, who covered a short during Apple's grind higher last month, said that he wasn't tempted to get back in the stock.

"I don't know where it's going to end. It's going to end at $88 or $89," he said. "I'd rather wait a month, see what the product launch is, see if there's an ecosystem build going out there and then take a peek at it."

Apple stock closed at $98.94 per share, down 4.22 percent on Wednesday. The company is widely expected to release its new iPhone 6 and possibly a smartwatch next Tuesday.
Private Advisor Group's Guy Adami shared Kelly's bearish view of the stock.

"If it gets below $98, I don't think you step in right away," he said. "I think there's a real chance that if it disappoints in anyway next week, you could see a stock that could trade down to the high $80s, high $80s meaning $88."

Karen Finerman of Metropolitan Capital Advisors said she was holding a wary position.

"I can't think of a stock that is more prone to sentiment changes than Apple, and I feel like the sentiment is actually changing a little bit here. And so I'd stay out of the way," she said. "I'm not going to cover my calls for a little while. I'm going to watch."
However, OptionMonster's Pete Najarian jumped in after seeing heavy options trading in Apple stock.

"Over 2 million options total. It led everything, including all the indexes as far as how much volume was trading in there today. One-point-three million of those were calls. Extremely aggressive, and as a matter of fact, the implied volatility of the options today skyrocketed today from 24 to 36 percent in the Sept. 12," he said.

Najarian added that he expected the stock to climb well over the $100 mark.

"I still think at some point in time this stock gets to $110. I think in the short-term we still could test somewhere near that $105, maybe push up toward $107," he said. "That's why I bought those options today. I like the paper."
 
 Apple stock is heading to $80, said bearish trader Brian Kelly. "I do think this is probably not the end of this selloff."


IMO AAPL 150 by end of year
I think we get to $80 sooner than we get to $150.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 29, 2014, 09:11:23 PM
I think we get to $80 sooner than we get to $150.
Hah... that means it's going to skyrocket Mr. I Don't Buy Stocks.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on September 29, 2014, 10:18:52 PM
I think we get to $80 sooner than we get to $150.
Hah... that means it's going to skyrocket Mr. I Don't Buy Stocks.
All depends on whether we have a decent pullback...if we do then apple probably gets into the $80s otherwise it'll be trading $110-$120 early next year.  What the hell do I know though.  I am pissed at myself for not buying 1000 shares of GoPro when it IPO'ed because it's getting really popular with the car tracking crowd. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 01, 2014, 10:53:33 AM
The market is currently down 242
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on October 01, 2014, 11:02:14 AM
Can someone call me in a few years and let me know how my stocks are doing?  ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 01, 2014, 11:11:35 AM
Can someone call me in a few years and let me know how my stocks are doing?  ;)

Sure
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 01, 2014, 11:16:29 AM
here is another apple buying opportunity. i got out yesterday at 101. will get back in today at low 99s.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 01, 2014, 12:20:21 PM
At least as far as the Dow in concerned, at just past the halfway mark, we find it up 2.3% as of today.  In January I said, "Again, I see a very volatile year, mostly up and down but probably trendless."  I will stick to that prediction but notice the "media" talks about the markets as if they are up 20-30%.  Not so Joe.

Flaaaaaaaaatttttt for the year
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on October 01, 2014, 04:44:38 PM
here is another apple buying opportunity. i got out yesterday at 101. will get back in today at low 99s.

Nice play.

This is one of those things love about AAPL, it has lots up and downs.   

Do pay attention to Apple Pay.  I was very skeptical about it but if Apple Pay really catches on and become wide spread, it will take Apple's profit and stock price to stratosphere.  If that happens, qwerty, I'll see you at Trevi. ;)

Quote
The biggest news to come out of Apple product introduction in early September was Apple Pay, a mobile payment service that could jolt the moribund $400 billion business for credit card processing out of its deep slumber.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/susankalla/2014/09/30/apple-pay-paves-way-for-mobile-payments-could-clip-paypal/
Quote
The Apple Pay mechanism is much easier than the prior attempt by GOOGL with Google Wallet. Apple Pay simply requires that one put their finger on the Touch ID sensor, present the phone, and that’s it.

That convenience should get enough iPhone users to ditch cash and cards — and add significant if incremental growth to AAPL operating profits. Susquehanna estimates that every 1% share of U.S. credit or debit card payments grabbed by Apple Pay will add 0.1% to operating earnings at AAPL.

In even better news for anyone holding Apple stock, every 1% share of global purchases made using Apple Pay will boost operating earnings by 0.4%.
http://investorplace.com/2014/09/apple-stock-apple-pay/#.VCyNiPldV8F
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on October 07, 2014, 01:07:23 PM
What's with the market lately, down another 270 today. 

October usually is the most historically volatile month of the year and high stock market volatility is usually associated with bear markets.  Could this be the warning sign of thing to come?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 07, 2014, 01:26:21 PM
lets see how todays purchase fare.  i bought apple at 98.92, whole foods at 37.47 and best buy at 30.22

the plan is to sell AAPL at 100-100.50, WFM at 38.50 and BBY at 32

ive had very good luck with AAPL and WFM. hadnt traded best buy in a long time, hopefully im not catching the proverbial falling knife.

good luck to everyone.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 08, 2014, 12:24:51 PM
Markets been pure emotion past few days..

Whole Foods?  You going long on this?  Grocers are a waiting game
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 08, 2014, 12:43:30 PM
At least as far as the Dow in concerned, at just past the halfway mark, we find it up 2.3% as of today.  In January I said, "Again, I see a very volatile year, mostly up and down but probably trendless."  I will stick to that prediction but notice the "media" talks about the markets as if they are up 20-30%.  Not so Joe.
Volatility has been down a good bit this year, except for a few short lived mini spikes.  I'll take that all day long. 

A 500+ point swing in 2 days to spin wheels in the same spot....yah, I'd call that volatility.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 08, 2014, 02:28:24 PM
Markets been pure emotion past few days..

Whole Foods?  You going long on this?  Grocers are a waiting game

no, not going long. just trading it. hits high 37s and i buy, hits high 38s and i sell.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 08, 2014, 02:34:37 PM
lets see how todays purchase fare.  i bought apple at 98.92, whole foods at 37.47 and best buy at 30.22

the plan is to sell AAPL at 100-100.50, WFM at 38.50 and BBY at 32

good luck to everyone.

sold AAPL at 100.00 today, had some meetings so i set the trade trigger.  get out of meeting and its almost at 101 :-(

so i shorted it at 100.96
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 08, 2014, 04:23:24 PM
lets see how todays purchase fare.  i bought apple at 98.92, whole foods at 37.47 and best buy at 30.22

the plan is to sell AAPL at 100-100.50, WFM at 38.50 and BBY at 32

good luck to everyone.

sold AAPL at 100.00 today, had some meetings so i set the trade trigger.  get out of meeting and its almost at 101 :-(

so i shorted it at 100.96
Use a trailing stops next time.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 09, 2014, 08:45:16 AM
So I shorted Apple at 100.96 and got out today at 101.49. Can't win them all :-(

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Goriot on October 09, 2014, 09:15:34 AM
So I shorted Apple at 100.96 and got out today at 101.49. Can't win them all :-(

Carl Icahn is calling for $200 on Apple today and encouraging more stock buy-back. 
Apple has a good positive momentum going for them at the moment.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 09, 2014, 09:23:13 AM
So I shorted Apple at 100.96 and got out today at 101.49. Can't win them all :-(

Carl Icahn is calling for $200 on Apple today and encouraging more stock buy-back. 
Apple has a good positive momentum going for them at the moment.
Ichan says a lot.

Let's face it world economic slowdown fears, Ebola fears, dollar is too strong.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 09, 2014, 10:16:02 AM
So I shorted Apple at 100.96 and got out today at 101.49. Can't win them all :-(

Carl Icahn is calling for $200 on Apple today and encouraging more stock buy-back. 
Apple has a good positive momentum going for them at the moment.

Also, I am against this buy back. Apple should spend the money on R&D for new products and/or acquire companies. (How about buy paypal from ebay? To strengthen Apple pay/apple passbook)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on October 09, 2014, 11:28:44 AM
So I shorted Apple at 100.96 and got out today at 101.49. Can't win them all :-(

Just when you though you got a good rhythm on trading AAPL, Carl Icahn open his mouth.  >:(

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on October 09, 2014, 11:42:30 AM
Let's face it world economic slowdown fears, Ebola fears, dollar is too strong.


The US dollar might just grow even stronger. It will be bad for US economy but BMW and Porsche just might get a little cheaper.

Quote
Euro to fall below parity with dollar by 2017

The euro's exchange rate against the dollar will fall to $0.95 by 2017, taking the single currency back below parity for the first time in more than a decade, according to a report by Deutsche Bank.

The consensus view among the major foreign exchange players is that the euro will continue to slide over the next year but it was last worth less than one dollar in 2002, the end of an early stage crisis of confidence in the euro project.

Barclays has predicted the euro will fall to $1.10 in a year's time and continue to fall thereafter. Goldman Sachs has it at parity with the dollar in 2017.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/07/markets-forex-deutsche-idUSL6N0S214220141007

 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on October 10, 2014, 08:55:12 AM
semi takes a beating today; 5 to 10 % drop across the sector? over reaction? time to buy in?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 15, 2014, 06:42:41 AM
The market just opened 12 minutes ago, and it's down 350.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 15, 2014, 06:45:43 AM
Man, wish I sold my home, would love to sit on cash now and wait for HC price drop.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 15, 2014, 06:49:26 AM
Man, wish I sold my home, would love to sit on cash now and wait for HC price drop.

HC?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 15, 2014, 06:56:10 AM
You need to up your 'TI monitoring' skills :)

Hidden Canyon
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 15, 2014, 06:58:43 AM
You need to up your 'TI monitoring' skills :)

Hidden Canyon
Oh ok. I thought it was a stock.  ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 15, 2014, 07:07:06 AM
I'm not buying stocks anymore, the one time I buy in the Dow drops 1000 points.  Sticking with my 1.25% savings acct
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on October 15, 2014, 07:14:23 AM
The market just opened 12 minutes ago, and it's down 350.

Looks like it's recovering, only down a little over 100 for now.  It's going to be an interesting day.

Also check out 10 year treasury, briefly plummet below 2%, at 1.87%.  Currently, it's slightly bove 2%. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 15, 2014, 07:40:08 AM
At least as far as the Dow in concerned, at just past the halfway mark, we find it up 2.3% as of today.  In January I said, "Again, I see a very volatile year, mostly up and down but probably trendless."  I will stick to that prediction but notice the "media" talks about the markets as if they are up 20-30%.  Not so Joe.
Volatility has been down a good bit this year, except for a few short lived mini spikes.  I'll take that all day long. 

A 500+ point swing in 2 days to spin wheels in the same spot....yah, I'd call that volatility.

Now down around 2.8% year to date...yawn.  Been long the vix and buying domestic oils into the weakness.  Easy pickings.  Remember we were at 15440 in February (just 6 months ago).  Flat markets are a traders wet dream but an investors frustrating nightmare.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 15, 2014, 01:47:51 PM
when the dow was down 350+ down today i bought the following: F, BAC, AA, PBR and WFM.  sold towards the end of the day, except i kept PBR/BAC. nice little profit.

PS9 - hopefully you havent sold your SPY - it will bounce back man. it always does.  watch tomorrow the market will be up 200+ points.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 15, 2014, 02:01:06 PM
I still have my SPY, gonna leave it alone, I don't have the stomach for this roller coaster
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 15, 2014, 02:06:25 PM
when the dow was down 350+ down today i bought the following: F, BAC, AA, PBR and WFM.  sold towards the end of the day, except i kept PBR/BAC. nice little profit.

PS9 - hopefully you havent sold your SPY - it will bounce back man. it always does.  watch tomorrow the market will be up 200+ points.
Yeah, we may get a dead cat bounce tomorrow but the market, with this recently drop, has done a lot of technical damage.  Ultimately I think we might head lower in the near term.  I started selling VIX puts last week and this week.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 15, 2014, 02:13:43 PM
Should I cash out my 401k?

#TheDowIsFalling
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 15, 2014, 02:29:51 PM
when the dow was down 350+ down today i bought the following: F, BAC, AA, PBR and WFM.  sold towards the end of the day, except i kept PBR/BAC. nice little profit.

PS9 - hopefully you havent sold your SPY - it will bounce back man. it always does.  watch tomorrow the market will be up 200+ points.
Yeah, we may get a dead cat bounce tomorrow but the market, with this recently drop, has done a lot of technical damage.  Ultimately I think we might head lower in the near term.  I started selling VIX puts last week and this week.

i agree, i think the bleeding stops right after the official correction (10% drop), then it will begin its steady march back to 17K+, since this morning we were not to far the official 10% drop i figured it was a good time to buy some stock.  there is no where else to put the money to get a return.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 15, 2014, 02:30:21 PM
Should I cash out my 401k?

#TheDowIsFalling

i wouldnt.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 15, 2014, 03:06:18 PM
so on the next dip im going to buy SSO, whatever the S&P500 goes up/down in a day times 2. good luck everybody.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 15, 2014, 03:07:35 PM
#qwerdaytrader
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 15, 2014, 03:12:14 PM
#qwerdaytrader

day trading is my escape. when i was younger i used to go to vegas 3-4 times a year, with a kid it makes it very hard to go, so this is how i cope with my degenerate gambling addiction.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvine Dream on October 15, 2014, 03:49:16 PM
#qwerdaytrader

day trading is my escape. when i was younger i used to go to vegas 3-4 times a year, with a kid it makes it very hard to go, so this is how i cope with my degenerate gambling addiction.

All these times I thought you were just pulling our legs.  How much money do you invest on average and what is the average payback on day trades?  To get in when AAPL is 99 and then get out at 101, the number of stocks (and hence amount you are investing) should be large enough for it to be worthwhile.  And on top of it you can afford a $900K house on your salary alone and you can still post on TI during work day.  How do I convince my kids to select a career path like yours?  I am too old and too dumb to change now ;D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 15, 2014, 04:28:16 PM
#qwerdaytrader

day trading is my escape. when i was younger i used to go to vegas 3-4 times a year, with a kid it makes it very hard to go, so this is how i cope with my degenerate gambling addiction.

All these times I thought you were just pulling our legs.  How much money do you invest on average and what is the average payback on day trades?  To get in when AAPL is 99 and then get out at 101, the number of stocks (and hence amount you are investing) should be large enough for it to be worthwhile.  And on top of it you can afford a $900K house on your salary alone and you can still post on TI during work day.  How do I convince my kids to select a career path like yours?  I am too old and too dumb to change now ;D

when i trade apple im buying 1000 shares at a time. if it is a 10-20 stock then i may do 2,000-3000 shares on a particular trade.  on average i shoot to net (gains-losses) of about $500/day.  i dont trade every day as work occasionally gets in the way, but 2-3 days a week i trade. sometimes i just sit a wait for a particular stock to drop then buy it (like AAPL).  i like to get in and get out fast, i dont like over night positions. i like PBR because it is very volatile and can hit may daily target pretty fast. with PBR, i can buy as little as 1,000 shares for 15-16K and get back 2-3% for the day. in general i buy in larger dollar amounts to get to my target and then be done.  so on apple, the return is around 1% per day, but that is just for the day, not annualized.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 15, 2014, 05:13:06 PM
Should I cash out my 401k?

#TheDowIsFalling

Say what
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 15, 2014, 06:35:13 PM
Should I cash out my 401k?

#TheDowIsFalling

Say what
#joking
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 15, 2014, 07:10:15 PM
The 4th quarter looks scary for companies. Especially companies that rely on majority/big percentage income overseas.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 21, 2014, 08:32:33 AM
Healthy 10% correction over?  Next time market slips 1000 gonna have my mortgage broker on speed dial, missed my chance.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 21, 2014, 09:26:36 AM
Traders market...flat
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 21, 2014, 09:30:49 AM
Healthy 10% correction over?  Next time market slips 1000 gonna have my mortgage broker on speed dial, missed my chance.

It depends, it's earnings season.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 21, 2014, 09:51:34 AM
Did qwertrade get in on AAPL before yesterday?

Earnings report bumped it from 99 to 102.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 21, 2014, 10:31:10 AM
Did qwertrade get in on AAPL before yesterday?

Earnings report bumped it from 99 to 102.

No AAPL for me. ive been monitoring it. i thought about buying some when it was at 97 several days ago, then got busy at work and forgot about it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 30, 2014, 10:58:34 AM
Approaching 52 wk high. My SPY is at even again.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 30, 2014, 11:02:07 AM
hope you guys bought SSO, just like it said, the dow would march back to 17,300 from 16,300.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Tarmacpro on October 30, 2014, 11:22:44 AM
GILD is marching on.  Another good Q3.  Looking forward to Harvoni in Q4.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on November 04, 2014, 01:08:57 PM
I was expecting a +10% correction but we only get a lousy -9.7%.

But wait, NYSE Margin Debt Drifts Higher (http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php).  Whenever the margin debt raises to such a high level, a significant market decline happened.  The data was up until September but the margin debt in October is expected to be even higher. Could the current rebound a bull trap?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on November 04, 2014, 01:26:26 PM
Guys.. BABA. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 07, 2014, 04:12:53 PM
I hope nobody here is investing in Salix.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N0SW92T20141107?irpc=932
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 07, 2014, 04:50:51 PM
HLF is taking a beating.


http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/12942546/1/herbalife-hlf-stock-continues-to-retreat-today-following-earnings-miss.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on November 13, 2014, 03:24:53 PM
Sell gold, brace for tanking oil, and a rocky ride for stocks in 2015 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sell-gold-brace-for-tanking-oil-and-a-rocky-ride-for-stocks-in-2015-2014-11-13?dist=afterbell)

Quote
U.S. stocks will enjoy a solid first six months of next year. However, the second half may not be so stellar, according to Credit Suisse, which published a broad market outlook for the coming year.

Credit Suisse predicts that the S&P 500 could see a rally to 2,200 by mid-year, which should come alongside an increase in volatility. It’s concerns centered on rate hikes by the Federal Reserve that could undercut stock momentum in the last six months of 2015, Credit Suisse notes.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 09, 2014, 10:10:46 AM
Wow... almost hit 18k.

But dropping now.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 09, 2014, 05:15:27 PM
So one of favorite trading stocks, PBR has tanked. I have a good chunk of shares, these buying opportunities don't come along often. It's in the low 8s. Was at 20 a couple of months ago. Could be a falling knife but I think downside is limited. Brazil is the 8th largest economy with vast amounts of natural resources. Good luck
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 11, 2014, 09:59:45 PM
So one of favorite trading stocks, PBR has tanked. I have a good chunk of shares, these buying opportunities don't come along often. It's in the low 8s. Was at 20 a couple of months ago. Could be a falling knife but I think downside is limited. Brazil is the 8th largest economy with vast amounts of natural resources. Good luck

I agree but I favor on shore a bit more. NBR is one of my favorites at this price
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 11, 2014, 10:11:47 PM
So one of favorite trading stocks, PBR has tanked. I have a good chunk of shares, these buying opportunities don't come along often. It's in the low 8s. Was at 20 a couple of months ago. Could be a falling knife but I think downside is limited. Brazil is the 8th largest economy with vast amounts of natural resources. Good luck

I agree but I favor on shore a bit more. NBR is one of my favorites at this price

thanks. ill take a look at this tomorrow. if these oil stocks work out in a couple of years ill pay off my mortgage. if they dont, my wife may leave me :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: i1 on December 11, 2014, 10:16:30 PM
a
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 12, 2014, 03:06:18 AM
So one of favorite trading stocks, PBR has tanked. I have a good chunk of shares, these buying opportunities don't come along often. It's in the low 8s. Was at 20 a couple of months ago. Could be a falling knife but I think downside is limited. Brazil is the 8th largest economy with vast amounts of natural resources. Good luck

I agree but I favor on shore a bit more. NBR is one of my favorites at this price

I would stay away from oil stocks. Nobody knows the bottom. #howlowcanyougo
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: RandomLetters on December 12, 2014, 07:46:44 AM
Is anyone looking at gold?
Over the last year, there's been lots of volatility but very little direction.

Is the correction over or paused on the way back to pre-Great Recession values?

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on December 12, 2014, 08:26:56 AM
Is anyone looking at gold?
Over the last year, there's been lots of volatility but very little direction.

Is the correction over or paused on the way back to pre-Great Recession values?

I think Gold was in the 900s pre recession.  Gold is one of those things you just hang on to and sell.. when the economy is down.  Just like putting money in the VIX index.  Just have to sell at the right time. 

I think Oil is a good bet for your kids.. not now.. but in the next 2-3 years. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 12, 2014, 09:28:45 AM
Is there a solar stock? :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 12, 2014, 10:00:13 AM
Is there a solar stock? :)

Why would you buy a solar stock when the price of oil is going down?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 12, 2014, 10:05:46 AM
Is there a solar stock? :)

Why would you buy a solar stock when the price of oil is going down?
Why do you think oil prices are directly related to solar?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 12, 2014, 10:08:24 AM
Is there a solar stock? :)

Why would you buy a solar stock when the price of oil is going down?
Why do you think oil prices are directly related to solar?

Because it is.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 12, 2014, 10:18:44 AM
Is there a solar stock? :)

Why would you buy a solar stock when the price of oil is going down?
Why do you think oil prices are directly related to solar?

Because it is.
Really?

According to this, US electricity generation is dependent more on coal, natural gas and nuclear than petroleum:

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
Quote
In 2013, the United States generated about 4,058 billion kilowatthours of electricity.  About 67% of the electricity generated was from fossil fuel (coal, natural gas, and petroleum), with 39% attributed from coal.

In 2013, energy sources and percent share of total electricity generation were

Coal 39%
Natural Gas 27%
Nuclear 19%
Hydropower 7%
Other Renewable 6%
Biomass 1.48%
Geothermal 0.41%
Solar 0.23%
Wind 4.13%
Petroleum 1%
Other Gases < 1%

Solar is about electricity generation replacement... not gas consumption.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 12, 2014, 10:44:27 AM
Is there a solar stock? :)

Why would you buy a solar stock when the price of oil is going down?
Why do you think oil prices are directly related to solar?

Because it is.
Really?

According to this, US electricity generation is dependent more on coal, natural gas and nuclear than petroleum:

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
Quote
In 2013, the United States generated about 4,058 billion kilowatthours of electricity.  About 67% of the electricity generated was from fossil fuel (coal, natural gas, and petroleum), with 39% attributed from coal.

In 2013, energy sources and percent share of total electricity generation were

Coal 39%
Natural Gas 27%
Nuclear 19%
Hydropower 7%
Other Renewable 6%
Biomass 1.48%
Geothermal 0.41%
Solar 0.23%
Wind 4.13%
Petroleum 1%
Other Gases < 1%

Solar is about electricity generation replacement... not gas consumption.

It's great you compiled all that data.
Just take a look at charts of solar stocks and oil.
I just did a one year stock chart comparison of spwr and cvx. (I chose sunpower because they are a profitable public solar company. Which is rare in the solar industry as of now, in my opinion. I also chose chevron, profitable big oil company)

So for one year, the two stocks I mentioned above are down about the same percentage.

Also, I'd you look at the 1 month, 3 month chart for the stocks mentioned above it looks almost the same. (When the price of oil going down)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 12, 2014, 10:59:34 AM
So one of favorite trading stocks, PBR has tanked. I have a good chunk of shares, these buying opportunities don't come along often. It's in the low 8s. Was at 20 a couple of months ago. Could be a falling knife but I think downside is limited. Brazil is the 8th largest economy with vast amounts of natural resources. Good luck

I agree but I favor on shore a bit more. NBR is one of my favorites at this price

I would stay away from oil stocks. Nobody knows the bottom. #howlowcanyougo

I respectfully disagree with the intermediate and longer term direction for the energy industry.  I wrote this to a client earlier...

Call it a Christmas Miracle.  We have been delivered from the jaws of depression. CHEAP ENERGY!!!!  The trend that brings us a massive domestic job creator not just in the sector itself but in a renaissance in our manufacturing sector because of cheap energy which offsets more expensive labor and transport when manufacturing overseas.  We have become one of the world’s largest producers of energy, satiating most of our internal needs to the point where exporting energy will renew our economy and flip our trade deficit from imports to exports.  Cash that once went to countries that don’t like us very much will not only stay here but cash flows will actually come here to pay for our energy.  Our production is in the process of breaking the back of OPEC’s strangle hold on our economy. Lower oil prices are punishing unfriendly regimes like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela without our state department lifting a finger.  The revolution is easing pressure on inflation, reducing the pressure on interest rates.  Our new found wealth will help repay some of our budget deficits in the form of greater tax collections on profits and incomes.  The trend has created thousands of new Millionaires around the country and increased national wealth many fold almost overnight.  We no longer have to depend or overly protect a part of the world that does not seem to want our help.  Billions more are being kept by all of us in the form of CHEAPER gas.  That is tantamount to multibillion dollar tax cut whose stimulus effect on consumers this Christmas will be felt all over the retail sector.  There is NO NEGATIVE to this trend (unless you feel sorry for oil companies that I can tell you are not going to be hurt one bit).  So why is the media so quick to claim DISASTER?

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 12, 2014, 11:02:11 AM
Just take a look at charts of solar stocks and oil.
I just did a one year stock chart comparison of spwr and cvx. (I chose sunpower because they are a profitable public solar company. Which is rare in the solar industry as of now, in my opinion. I also chose chevron, profitable big oil company)

So for one year, the two stocks I mentioned above are down about the same percentage.

Also, I'd you look at the 1 month, 3 month chart for the stocks mentioned above it looks almost the same. (When the price of oil going down)
The famous investor disclaimer:

Past results are not always indicative of future performance.

You're looking at stock performance, I'm looking at other indicators like consumer usage, technology costs, viability and availability.

To me, solar is unrelated to oil in such that it talks to a different market base. In 10 years, I don't think you'll be able to draw that line when comparing oil stocks to solar stocks.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on December 12, 2014, 01:26:36 PM

There is NO NEGATIVE to this trend (unless you feel sorry for oil companies that I can tell you are not going to be hurt one bit).  So why is the media so quick to claim DISASTER?

One issue I'm worried about regarding to the fallen oil price is the cause of fallen oil price.

They are many reasons for fallen oil price but one of the reason is decrease demand due to lackluster economy around the world.  And lackluster economy might put a dent on the stock market. 

Hope cheap oil will help stimulate the ecomomy but Oil prices will stay around $60 a barrel for the next five years as China's economy cools down, economist Andy Xie told CNBC on Thursday. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102259827#.)

The billion dollar question is that how much cheap oil will help the economy, boots corporate profit (other than oil company), and increase stock market prices. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: i1 on December 12, 2014, 07:22:32 PM
a
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: i1 on December 12, 2014, 07:53:18 PM
a
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 12, 2014, 09:55:13 PM
Oil has become the new housing bubble: Trader Rob Raymond
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102261689

 Stock-holm Syndrome: Equities held hostage by oil
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-holm-syndrome--equities-held-hostage-by-oil-124135978.html

 Plunging oil prices may trigger unrest
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plunging-oil-prices-may-trigger-113500233.html

 Wall St declines as oil tumbles further
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stocks-open-lower-oil-143340159.html

 Oil decline is the 'black swan' event!: Birinyi
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102258318

 Could Falling Oil Prices Create The Next Financial Disaster For Mom And Pop Investors?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2728705-could-falling-oil-prices-create-the-next-financial-disaster-for-mom-and-pop-investors

 Could Plummeting Oil Prices Spell Disaster For Banks?
http://liveindex.org/2014/12/05/could-plummeting-oil-prices-spell-disaster-for-banks/
 Why Oil Is Finally Declining, Which May Lead to Disaster
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/why-oil-is-finally-declining-which-may-lead-to-disaster/comment-page-2/

 Poppycock!!  I would wager not one of those authors saw this decline coming but now claim to know the what’s and why’s.  With that glorious list of positives above, the media wishes to focus on a fatalistic, theoretical negative outcome.  I know nobody wants to read about the 22,000 planes that landed safely yesterday, they want the pictures of the one that crashed.  I repeat, there is little negative that comes from lower energy prices. If you worry about oil company profits, (which most people don’t)  I can attest that when oil was $9/barrel in the early 90’s they still made quite a bit of money.  The future is bright, bask in the sun, don’t put on shades, run inside, close the shutters and hide under your bed in the fetal position.  It’s Christmas!!!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: i1 on December 12, 2014, 10:18:40 PM
a
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 12, 2014, 11:05:05 PM
We can competed pretty much indefinitely.  We actually sit on more oil than Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq combined.  Most frackers are already producing at the wellhead at around $45.00 a barrel.  Remember, many of these current fields are old fields with infrastructure already in place. Fracking simply piggybacks on existing wellheads that stopped producing when the “loose” oil gave out.  There is far more “tight” oil in these fields and technology and efficiency has dropped the production prices considerably over the last few years.  We will win a war but OPEC will eventually have to back down.  Either way cheap, stable energy may be here to stay.  That is a good thing for both the country and your investments. It is erroneous to link oil prices with oil company profits.  As I said, at $9.00 a barrel Chevron made money, at $130.00 a barrel Chevron made money.   The market also makes this mistake.  Price of the commodity is intermediate term not relevant to profits.  Volume is relative to profits.  Chevron simply passes on the price of oil and keeps a spread for profits.  They ALWAYS make money. Better than a casino.  At $60 a barrel and $2.00 a gallon the drop in prices will be made up with consumptive volume.  Cheaper travel, cheaper transport, cheaper vacations, cheaper products and goods…more consumption, more profits.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: i1 on December 12, 2014, 11:15:32 PM
a
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: i1 on December 12, 2014, 11:19:31 PM
a
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 12, 2014, 11:24:24 PM
Nothing fixes things like booming consumer demand. However, productivity,  efficiencies and advances in fracking technology have been astonishing over the last few years.  Also remember this is a very reactive sector. If it becomes too cheap companies simply take wells offline.  The asset remains until it becomes more profitable to resume production.  Happens all the time and is not difficult to re-start on short notice.  Most fields have been in production for several years so are efficiently operating at relatively low prices.  Newer leases may not be immediately put into production while prices stay so low but when prices stabilize they can be easily brought online. Exploration costs are low as we know where most of the tight deposits are now.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 13, 2014, 01:04:34 PM
Just take a look at charts of solar stocks and oil.
I just did a one year stock chart comparison of spwr and cvx. (I chose sunpower because they are a profitable public solar company. Which is rare in the solar industry as of now, in my opinion. I also chose chevron, profitable big oil company)

So for one year, the two stocks I mentioned above are down about the same percentage.

Also, I'd you look at the 1 month, 3 month chart for the stocks mentioned above it looks almost the same. (When the price of oil going down)
The famous investor disclaimer:

Past results are not always indicative of future performance.

You're looking at stock performance, I'm looking at other indicators like consumer usage, technology costs, viability and availability.

To me, solar is unrelated to oil in such that it talks to a different market base. In 10 years, I don't think you'll be able to draw that line when comparing oil stocks to solar stocks.

This is a topic related to stocks. By your responses it shows that you do not know the correlation between oil and solar stocks.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 13, 2014, 01:06:32 PM
@morekaos - I hope that you told your "client" that the oil is still dropping. Also, the prices of oil stocks might drop even more. Because right now there is not a bottom.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 13, 2014, 03:48:14 PM
Just take a look at charts of solar stocks and oil.
I just did a one year stock chart comparison of spwr and cvx. (I chose sunpower because they are a profitable public solar company. Which is rare in the solar industry as of now, in my opinion. I also chose chevron, profitable big oil company)

So for one year, the two stocks I mentioned above are down about the same percentage.

Also, I'd you look at the 1 month, 3 month chart for the stocks mentioned above it looks almost the same. (When the price of oil going down)
The famous investor disclaimer:

Past results are not always indicative of future performance.

You're looking at stock performance, I'm looking at other indicators like consumer usage, technology costs, viability and availability.

To me, solar is unrelated to oil in such that it talks to a different market base. In 10 years, I don't think you'll be able to draw that line when comparing oil stocks to solar stocks.

This is a topic related to stocks. By your responses it shows that you do not know the correlation between oil and solar stocks.
Maybe I misunderstood you, as your original reference was to oil *prices*, I guess you meant oil *stock* prices.

Now that you know where I am coming from, do you think crude oil prices (price per barrel) is directly related to the solar industry?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 13, 2014, 07:44:52 PM
When oil prices are high, it means gas costs more, deliveries cost more, anything with plastic cost more etc, so  household budgets are tighter. So people start looking to cut costs by looking at solar. So higher oil means higher stock price and higher solar stock price. Lower oil, less pressure on household budgets, less interest in solar so lower solar stock price.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 13, 2014, 11:36:06 PM
When oil prices are high, it means gas costs more, deliveries cost more, anything with plastic cost more etc, so  household budgets are tighter. So people start looking to cut costs by looking at solar. So higher oil means higher stock price and higher solar stock price. Lower oil, less pressure on household budgets, less interest in solar so lower solar stock price.
That may be the case now but not in 10-20 years.

I don't look at stocks in the next year or two, I'm looking at 10+ years.

Additionally, electricity costs are high every summer and with the record heat that many areas in the US are having on an annual basis, solar is becoming more viable. IUSD is investing millions (billions?) of dollars into installing solar panels at their schools.

As much as I say that solar is not prime time it will be.

And I disagree that oil barrel prices are directly connected to solar, using that budget argument, you can say oil prices are tied to any consumer stock.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 13, 2014, 11:57:08 PM

You can disagree but historically solar tracks oil. And yes, oil prices are tied to many stocks. FedEx, the airlines, retailers, etc have gone up because of low oil prices. Just like solar went down. All tied to company/household budgets.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 14, 2014, 09:35:49 AM
Irvinehomeowner -

"While many stocks are affected by low energy prices -- for instance, airline stocks benefit from lower fuel prices -- solar stocks trade more in immediate tandem with the energy sector as investors consider the overall cost of energy. So, if crude oil prices are getting close to their nadir, the bottom of the solar stocks' slide will likely come sooner than later."


Source: http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/12983623/1/solar-stocks-fall-into-bargain-territory-as-oil-prices-plunge.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 15, 2014, 08:18:50 AM
It is erroneous to link oil prices with oil company profits. The market also makes this mistake.  Price of the commodity is intermediate term not relevant to profits.  Volume is relative to profits.  Chevron simply passes on the price of oil and keeps a spread for profits.  At $60 a barrel and $2.00 a gallon the drop in prices will be made up with consumptive volume.
Oil demand is very inelastic. You aren't going to make up for lower prices with higher volume. If you think oil companies can have the same profitability at $9, $40, $60 or $100/barrel, that is very wishful thinking imo.

it will be good for the economy, just not for oil companies.

In 1998 the average price of a barrel of crude was $11.42 and believe it or not the average price of gas that year was .99 cents.  That year Chevron's average Price/Earnings ratio around 9.  in 2008 the  Price of Crude hit $140 but averaged well over $100 and Chevrons Price/Earnings ratio was...you guessed it....around 9. Today, Chevrons Price/Earnings ratio is....around 9  Better than a Casino.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 15, 2014, 09:13:22 AM
I'm with morekaos on this, oil companies seem to profit no matter what the price of oil is.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 15, 2014, 09:27:05 AM
Oil companies essentially operate under a cost plus profit % model. Straight cash homie.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 16, 2014, 09:15:52 AM
Picked up some NBR yesterday. So far so good.

Thank for the tip morekaos.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 16, 2014, 12:23:55 PM
Picked up some NBR yesterday. So far so good.

Thank for the tip morekaos.

I hope that works out for you...Merry Christmas!!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: i1 on December 16, 2014, 08:40:48 PM
a
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 19, 2014, 01:17:54 PM
Picked up some NBR yesterday. So far so good.

Thank for the tip morekaos.

I hope that works out for you...Merry Christmas!!!

NBR is up like 36% since Morekaos gave the thumbs up. from 10 to 13.64. nice pick.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on December 19, 2014, 02:46:35 PM
Picked up some NBR yesterday. So far so good.

Thank for the tip morekaos.

I hope that works out for you...Merry Christmas!!!

NBR is up like 36% since Morekaos gave the thumbs up. from 10 to 13.64. nice pick.

ugh.. missed this.  Please post more gems guys.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 19, 2014, 02:52:07 PM
I think you will get more chances on the oil stocks. I'm guessing it goes back down some, maybe not 10 but you can buy the dips. I'm holding this longer term though. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 19, 2014, 08:16:04 PM
Picked up some NBR yesterday. So far so good.

Thank for the tip morekaos.

I hope that works out for you...Merry Christmas!!!

NBR is up like 36% since Morekaos gave the thumbs up. from 10 to 13.64. nice pick.

ugh.. missed this.  Please post more gems guys.

Its why I get paid the big bucks ;). But you are on your own now.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 19, 2014, 09:15:16 PM
Stock goes up a little and now he thinks he is the stock guru. #kickbackjack
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 19, 2014, 10:41:37 PM
Stock goes up a little and now he thinks he is the stock guru. #kickbackjack

I was being sarcastic ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 22, 2014, 09:50:42 AM
Picked up some NBR yesterday. So far so good.

Thank for the tip morekaos.

I hope that works out for you...Merry Christmas!!!

NBR is up like 36% since Morekaos gave the thumbs up. from 10 to 13.64. nice pick.

ugh.. missed this.  Please post more gems guys.

down 5-6% today, accumulate on the dips.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 29, 2014, 04:43:43 PM
It is erroneous to link oil prices with oil company profits. The market also makes this mistake.  Price of the commodity is intermediate term not relevant to profits.  Volume is relative to profits.  Chevron simply passes on the price of oil and keeps a spread for profits.  At $60 a barrel and $2.00 a gallon the drop in prices will be made up with consumptive volume.
Oil demand is very inelastic. You aren't going to make up for lower prices with higher volume. If you think oil companies can have the same profitability at $9, $40, $60 or $100/barrel, that is very wishful thinking imo.

it will be good for the economy, just not for oil companies.

In 1998 the average price of a barrel of crude was $11.42 and believe it or not the average price of gas that year was .99 cents.  That year Chevron's average Price/Earnings ratio around 9.  in 2008 the  Price of Crude hit $140 but averaged well over $100 and Chevrons Price/Earnings ratio was...you guessed it....around 9. Today, Chevrons Price/Earnings ratio is....around 9  Better than a Casino.

To my point the market now agrees.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-29/this-era-of-lowcost-oil-is-different (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-29/this-era-of-lowcost-oil-is-different)


Oil
This Era of Low-Cost Oil Is Different


Having seen numerous fluctuations in the energy markets over the years, many analysts and policy makers have a natural tendency to “look through” the latest drop in oil prices -- that is, to treat the impact as transient rather than as signaling long-term changes.

I suspect that view would be a mistake this time around. The world is experiencing much more than a temporary dip in oil prices. Because of a change in the supply model, this is a fundamental shift that will likely have long-lasting effects.

As costs fall for manufacturing and a wide range of other activities affected by energy costs, and as consumers spend less on gas and more on other things, many oil-importing nations will see a rise in gross domestic product. And this higher economic activity is likely to boost investment in new plants, equipment and labor, financed by corporate cash sitting on the sidelines.

The likelihood of longer-lasting changes is intensified when we include the geopolitical ripple effects. In addition to creating huge domestic problems for some producers such as Russia and Venezuela,

the lower prices reduce these nations’ real and perceived influence on other countries. Some believe Cuba, for example, agreed to the recent deal with the U.S. because its leaders worried they would be getting less support from Russia and Venezuela. And for countries such as Iraq and Nigeria, low oil prices can fuel more unrest and fragmentation, and increase the domestic and regional disruptive impact of extremist groups.

There are no negatives..for us
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 29, 2014, 09:28:08 PM
And Dow is at 18k.

Will it ever stop?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 30, 2014, 08:54:53 AM
I'm looking at emerging markets etf.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on December 30, 2014, 01:55:59 PM
Maybe I should use these phrases more often...

14 Meaningless Phrases That Will Make You Sound Like A Stock-Market Wizard (http://www.businessinsider.com/meaningless-market-phrases-that-sound-smart-2014-12?op=1)
Quote
The easy money has been made.
I'm cautiously optimistic.
It's a stockpicker's market.
It's not a stock market. It's a market of stocks.
We're constructive on the market.
Stocks are down on 'profit taking.
The trend is your friend.
More buyers than sellers.
There's lots of cash on the sidelines.
We're in a bottoming process.
Overbought.
Buy on weakness.
Take a wait-and-see approach.
It's a show-me stock.




Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on January 02, 2015, 01:33:27 PM
Is there a solar stock? :)

Why would you buy a solar stock when the price of oil is going down?
Why do you think oil prices are directly related to solar?

Because it is.

I saw this article and remember of this little discussion about solar stock prices and oil prices.

Why solar stock prices are correlated to oil prices is beyond me but maybe investor just short the entire energy sector all together.

Solar Stocks Plummet With Oil Prices (http://news.investors.com/technology/010215-732931-solar-prices-declined-in-2014-along-with-oil-prices.htm)

Quote
Solar company executives and analysts say solar stocks have fallen in tandem with falling oil prices, although they see no fundamental connection.



Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 02, 2015, 04:11:53 PM
i think in general when there is more free cash in a household budget (such as when oil/gas is cheap), people are less inclined to look to save in other places (reduce electricity bills with solar). there is probably some of what Inc is saying too, for example, Petrobras (PBR) actually benefits from lower oil prices since it is a net importer of gas into brazil and sells at fixed government prices at the pump, but oil trades down in a day and it drags down PBR.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 14, 2015, 03:23:41 PM
FCX, got slaughtered today, the last couple of days actually since copper plunged. Picked some up in my account and my inlaws account. For those who missed out on NBR the last time it was 10, closed at 10.36, picked up some more today.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 20, 2015, 07:17:46 AM
Who's buying BBY?  Nice steep plunge from last week, still near plunge lows. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 20, 2015, 09:00:09 AM
BIG step for me today, bought AMZN shares, bouncing off 52 week lows (it's tech is kinda meh but it's bread/butter Prime should be its focus)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 20, 2015, 09:13:45 AM
BIG step for me today, bought AMZN shares, bouncing off 52 week lows (it's tech is kinda meh but it's bread/butter Prime should be its focus)
My rule for stocks is buy what you know/use and just hold it long term.

AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, TGT and DIS should be no-brainers for you. :)

Not sure if 8LEG, SQD, REFI and GOLD are actual ticker symbols.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 20, 2015, 09:28:56 AM
AMZN must've hit the buy limit for a majority of people
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 20, 2015, 09:31:17 AM
BIG step for me today, bought AMZN shares, bouncing off 52 week lows (it's tech is kinda meh but it's bread/butter Prime should be its focus)
My rule for stocks is buy what you know/use and just hold it long term.

AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, TGT and DIS should be no-brainers for you. :)

Not sure if 8LEG, SQD, REFI and GOLD are actual ticker symbols.

So you should be buying BBY no? 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on January 20, 2015, 09:52:45 AM
BIG step for me today, bought AMZN shares, bouncing off 52 week lows (it's tech is kinda meh but it's bread/butter Prime should be its focus)

I would buy Google over Amazon. Due to the fact Amazon is not profitable right now.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 20, 2015, 10:12:31 AM
@ps9:

BBY is too limited and I shop there infrequently.

You can say that about AAPL too but they have cult-like followers and I actually use their products.

MSFT and GOOG are always going to be around... AMZN and TGT are basically the online vs. brick/mortar duo and DIS is going to blow up with all the non-princess properties they now have (Star Wars and Marvel Comics).

I should have also mentioned NFLX (where is USC?).
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on January 20, 2015, 10:29:03 AM
BIG step for me today, bought AMZN shares, bouncing off 52 week lows (it's tech is kinda meh but it's bread/butter Prime should be its focus)

I would buy Google over Amazon. Due to the fact Amazon is not profitable right now.
+1

I would be very cautious about BBY.  The brick and mortar store model might going the way of dodo bird, just look at Circuit City and Good Guys.  The consumer electronic retail will never be the same.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 20, 2015, 10:31:37 AM
I would also stay away from best buy. A couple of long term holds would also be Home Depot and Nike.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on January 20, 2015, 01:06:07 PM
Maybe now is a good time to buy more stocks.

Stock dividend yields are above Treasury yields -- and that’s bullish (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-dividend-yields-are-above-treasury-yields----and-thats-bullish-2015-01-20?dist=countdown)

Quote
Long-term investors are getting a rare signal suggesting that now might be a great time to buy stocks.

For just the fourth time in over 50 years, the S&P 500’s dividend yield moved last week above the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. If history is any guide, this means 2015 could be a very good year for the stock market.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 23, 2015, 08:14:52 AM
FCX, got slaughtered today, the last couple of days actually since copper plunged. Picked some up in my account and my inlaws account. For those who missed out on NBR the last time it was 10, closed at 10.36, picked up some more today.

I continue to accumulate at these prices. ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 27, 2015, 07:41:03 AM
Down 350 so far...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on January 27, 2015, 08:06:50 AM
Time to load up on some energy stocks.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 27, 2015, 04:14:06 PM
Time to load up on some energy stocks.

I concur
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on January 29, 2015, 06:48:21 AM
So far Alibaba dropped $10 today, opportunity to buy? (around 52 low)

"Fake goods, angry customers land Alibaba in hot water with regulators"

http://fortune.com/2015/01/29/fake-goods-angry-customers-land-alibaba-in-hot-water-with-regulators/?xid=yahoo_fortune
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 29, 2015, 03:20:24 PM
Go AMZN!  After hours around $350
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 29, 2015, 03:26:55 PM
Go AMZN!  After hours around $350

damn, i knew i should have pulled the trigger on it when it was in the 290's about a week ago.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 29, 2015, 03:28:23 PM
Got it for $286 :)

My first trade, now I'm hooked, hello CNBC
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 29, 2015, 03:35:21 PM
Got it for $286 :)

My first trade, now I'm hooked, hello CNBC

say hi to amanda drury for me.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 29, 2015, 03:36:19 PM
Got it for $286 :)

My first trade, now I'm hooked, hello CNBC

that is one hell of a first trade man. congrats. are you going to start trading or buy/hold for longer term?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on January 29, 2015, 04:30:09 PM
I also want to start day trading. I think I can execute up to 100 trades commission free per month in my Merrill Edge account. thinking about buying some high dividend stocks, like in the utility sector. any recs?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 30, 2015, 06:39:12 AM
Got it for $286 :)

My first trade, now I'm hooked, hello CNBC

that is one hell of a first trade man. congrats. are you going to start trading or buy/hold for longer term?

Sell limit at 380, Gonna swing for the fences. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on January 30, 2015, 07:27:27 AM
Got it for $286 :)

My first trade, now I'm hooked, hello CNBC

Nice first trade.  You and my wife made the same exact first trade.  She bought at $293 and sold this morning at $350. 

Have you checked out robinhood app?  Free trades and super easy...she is definitely hooked.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 30, 2015, 07:34:47 AM
Got it for $286 :)

My first trade, now I'm hooked, hello CNBC

Nice first trade.  You and my wife made the same exact first trade.  She bought at $293 and sold this morning at $350. 

Have you checked out robinhood app?  Free trades and super easy...she is definitely hooked.

Uhh-ohh. No offense to anyone but this is kind of a bad sign  :-[
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 30, 2015, 08:30:28 AM
Now you need to short Amazon :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 30, 2015, 09:00:51 AM
I chickened out, sold it just now at 352,  gonna pick up AAPL instead

Made my two week paycheck, gonna call in sick :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 30, 2015, 09:06:37 AM
SHAK doing well in its IPO, never had it before?  Is it like In N Out?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: bones on January 30, 2015, 09:17:19 AM
SHAK doing well in its IPO, never had it before?  Is it like In N Out?

Overpriced and overhyped in and out. I much prefer the cheaper version :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 30, 2015, 09:37:32 AM
SHAK doing well in its IPO, never had it before?  Is it like In N Out?

Overpriced and overhyped in and out. I much prefer the cheaper version :)


Agree, I think NY doesn't get a great burger at a reasonable price.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 30, 2015, 10:36:12 AM
SHAK doing well in its IPO, never had it before?  Is it like In N Out?

I've only had it once. I thought it was pretty good.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 30, 2015, 10:53:02 AM
I've only had it once. I thought it was pretty good.

#TWQSFriday

Let me guess... you only took a bite and threw the rest out. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 30, 2015, 11:03:38 AM
SHAK doing well in its IPO, never had it before?  Is it like In N Out?

By the way this is not a good sign either. It reminds me of Krispy Kreme ::)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 30, 2015, 11:22:49 AM
I've only had it once. I thought it was pretty good.

#TWQSFriday

Let me guess... you only took a bite and threw the rest out. :)

I had the whole thing, tasty.

thats a softball for another TWQS :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on January 30, 2015, 11:24:17 AM
SHAK doing well in its IPO, never had it before?  Is it like In N Out?

By the way this is not a good sign either. It reminds me of Krispy Kreme ::)

i never thought i would say this, but it does seem like to many new burger joints are popping up. Smashburger at the Culver/Alton plaza doesnt seem to get a lot of business.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 30, 2015, 11:32:14 AM
There's also a MooYah that's supposed to open on the corner of Alton/Jeffrey, which has a McDonald's so not sure how that's going to go.

Only been to that Smashburger on Alton twice for to go orders, both times not very busy.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: bones on January 30, 2015, 11:39:41 AM
SHAK doing well in its IPO, never had it before?  Is it like In N Out?

By the way this is not a good sign either. It reminds me of Krispy Kreme ::)

i never thought i would say this, but it does seem like to many new burger joints are popping up. Smashburger at the Culver/Alton plaza doesnt seem to get a lot of business.

agree.  that G burger (?) at marketplace is also dead.  honestly, when i want a burger (which isn't even that often), I just go to in and out.  Cheap and I know what I'm getting each and every time.  No surprises. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvine Dream on January 30, 2015, 11:45:12 AM
agree.  that G burger (?) at marketplace is also dead.  honestly, when i want a burger (which isn't even that often), I just go to in and out.  Cheap and I know what I'm getting each and every time.  No surprises.

We really liked G burger, eventhough some of us were not meat eaters but ultimately like everything else unless it is cheap (relatively speaking) it is not  going to survive
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 30, 2015, 11:47:15 AM
I was alluding to both the trending of foods like doughnuts, frozen yogurt, coffee shops and bagel vendors and their tendency to go public at the tail end of a market run. Krispy Kreme went public in April of 2000. A month before the markets cratered...just and old timers observation
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 30, 2015, 12:04:17 PM
And build your own fast bake pizzas?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 30, 2015, 03:55:06 PM
Probably dive in for AAPL on Monday, good time to pick up before the gigantor iPad hits the news in March. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: toady13 on February 02, 2015, 09:25:58 PM
Probably dive in for AAPL on Monday, good time to pick up before the gigantor iPad hits the news in March. 

I don't think that's going to move AAPL. If you know about any future ipad news, so does everyone else including the market. And actually, iPad sales have actually been decreasing and only accounted for 12% of their revenue for Q1.

I think what will continue to propel AAPL forward are the number of iphones selling in China. Total iPhone sales account for 69% of their revenue. There will probably be a bump this month leading up to Feb 19th their new year holiday.







Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 03, 2015, 08:03:56 AM
Let's see if the dow keeps it's upward bounce today, got in AAPL at 118, any news on Apple Watch?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on February 03, 2015, 09:06:40 AM
Let's see if the dow keeps it's upward bounce today, got in AAPL at 118, any news on Apple Watch?

It's over priced and not getting the best reviews.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 03, 2015, 09:08:41 AM
Sounds like something I would buy
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 03, 2015, 09:59:08 AM
Got rid of SPY and selling SWPPX day's end, might consider GILD
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Tarmacpro on February 03, 2015, 01:01:45 PM
I hope GILD rips it up today!  On the oil front, how do you guys feel about WHZ?  WTI seems to be making a comeback and I'm curious if the long term div payout would be worth the fixed cost risk.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 03, 2015, 01:23:19 PM
(http://i1233.photobucket.com/albums/ff390/Ps99472/3F500A58-B0F0-4B9A-92E4-6A4D1E4C72BD_zpsrgdkenp7.png)

I like that smile :)

About 108 right now after hours
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Tarmacpro on February 03, 2015, 01:29:34 PM
(http://i1233.photobucket.com/albums/ff390/Ps99472/3F500A58-B0F0-4B9A-92E4-6A4D1E4C72BD_zpsrgdkenp7.png)

I like that smile :)

About 108 right now after hours

I'm not expecting much.  I think back in July they demolished the consensus and still the stock dropped.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Tarmacpro on February 03, 2015, 01:36:05 PM
$.43 dividend!  That's what I'm talking about!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 03, 2015, 03:27:12 PM
(http://i1233.photobucket.com/albums/ff390/Ps99472/3F500A58-B0F0-4B9A-92E4-6A4D1E4C72BD_zpsrgdkenp7.png)

I like that smile :)

About 108 right now after hours

I'm not expecting much.  I think back in July they demolished the consensus and still the stock dropped.

Looks like you're right, dropped 5% after hours :(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Tarmacpro on February 03, 2015, 03:31:04 PM
(http://i1233.photobucket.com/albums/ff390/Ps99472/3F500A58-B0F0-4B9A-92E4-6A4D1E4C72BD_zpsrgdkenp7.png)

I like that smile :)

About 108 right now after hours

I'm not expecting much.  I think back in July they demolished the consensus and still the stock dropped.

Looks like you're right, dropped 5% after hours :(

I think that dividend is significant though.  It now opens the door for the multitudes of mutual funds to now accumulate GILD which should drive the demand higher.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 03, 2015, 03:50:27 PM
Investors don't like Gilead discounting Solvadi to $500 per pill for Govt and PBMs. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 04, 2015, 08:03:27 AM
Ughh, got caught with GILD... so how about YUM earnings today?  qwerty?  this should be your specialty :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on February 04, 2015, 09:49:25 AM
Ughh, got caught with GILD... so how about YUM earnings today?  qwerty?  this should be your specialty :)

I'm still trying to figure out how to become CFO, chief food officer, of Taco Bell.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 04, 2015, 09:53:47 AM
Man, you 1%ers that can day trade with 100s of thousands of dollars are so lucky.

I guess ps9 found something to do with his suitcase of cash rather than park it in a 0.75% savings account.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on February 04, 2015, 10:39:23 AM
Ughh, got caught with GILD... so how about YUM earnings today?  qwerty?  this should be your specialty :)

GILD down 7-8%, that sucks.  i dont track YUM that much.  are you buying any oil stocks? 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 04, 2015, 11:51:49 AM
Ughh, got caught with GILD... so how about YUM earnings today?  qwerty?  this should be your specialty :)

GILD down 7-8%, that sucks.  i dont track YUM that much.  are you buying any oil stocks? 
Like XOM?  Too late, I'm still learning, not familiar with oil.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on February 04, 2015, 01:37:20 PM
Ughh, got caught with GILD... so how about YUM earnings today?  qwerty?  this should be your specialty :)

GILD down 7-8%, that sucks.  i dont track YUM that much.  are you buying any oil stocks? 
Like XOM?  Too late, I'm still learning, not familiar with oil.

im only dealing with two right now, NBR which morekaos recommended and PBR which im like a crackhead with. these have a lot of volatility so they make for fun trading. the majors are much less volatile.  i do hold shares of both for long term as well.  Metals and oil are in the tank right now so seem like good longer term holds. the only other two stocks i hold right now are FCX and MT.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 05, 2015, 07:58:17 AM
So buy what you know?  Hmm, Blizzard earnings today, also Yelp.  And Standard Pacific.  Which would you pick?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 05, 2015, 08:58:32 AM
So buy what you know?  Hmm, Blizzard earnings today, also Yelp.  And Standard Pacific.  Which would you pick?
Buy and hold what you know.

For day trading, I believe the rule is pick the ones that are volatile so that you can ride the peaks and valleys. One of my friends use to day trade for a living, he no longer does so I guess he wasn't that good at it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 05, 2015, 10:32:46 AM
A Day Trader's Advice: `Don't Quit Your Day Job'

March 28, 1999|By Kathy Bergen, Tribune Staff Writer. Tribune staff writer Patrick Cole in New York contributed to this report.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1999-03-28/business/9903280441_1_day-trading-day-trading-volatile-stocks (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1999-03-28/business/9903280441_1_day-trading-day-trading-volatile-stocks)

If so, Weiner has some words of advice: "Don't quit your day job . . . and don't think a course at a (day-trading) shop is going to teach your enough information to be successful."You either need to be under the wing of someone who knows what they are doing, or you need to start really, really slowly."

Makes for interesting reading
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 06, 2015, 07:47:29 AM
zero sum game, got big on Amazon, deflated with GILD, now stepped on by YELP.  I'm out, back to 1% savings plan
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on February 06, 2015, 07:54:51 AM
zero sum game, got big on Amazon, deflated with GILD, now stepped on by YELP.  I'm out, back to 1% savings plan

Buy 10000 shares of pbr at 6.5 today Tanked 8% today on new CEO. In a couple days it will be back at  7. Easy 5k.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 06, 2015, 01:45:45 PM
We are in a trading range....sell volatility on the dips near 1990/2000 and buy volatility on the rips near 2060/2070. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on February 06, 2015, 03:37:44 PM
zero sum game, got big on Amazon, deflated with GILD, now stepped on by YELP.  I'm out, back to 1% savings plan

Good time to buy yelp - today
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 06, 2015, 04:50:30 PM
zero sum game, got big on Amazon, deflated with GILD, now stepped on by YELP.  I'm out, back to 1% savings plan

Good time to buy yelp - today

Yes please do! :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 06, 2015, 05:19:28 PM
zero sum game, got big on Amazon, deflated with GILD, now stepped on by YELP.  I'm out, back to 1% savings plan

Good time to buy yelp - today

Yes please do! :)

Don't think of it as work, the whole point of it is just to enjoy yourself


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Dy2fo6E_pI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Dy2fo6E_pI)

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 06, 2015, 07:52:22 PM
zero sum game, got big on Amazon, deflated with GILD, now stepped on by YELP.  I'm out, back to 1% savings plan

Good time to buy yelp - today

Yes please do! :)

Don't think of it as work, the whole point of it is just to enjoy yourself


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Dy2fo6E_pI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Dy2fo6E_pI)



too much shits, not enough giggles... feels like the market is based on emotion versus data.... I'll hang around for a few more weeks, otherwise I'll leave the fun with my future self's money
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: gaogi on February 07, 2015, 08:40:12 AM
We are in a trading range....sell volatility on the dips near 1990/2000 and buy volatility on the rips near 2060/2070.

Been doing this with XIV and VXX.  So far so good!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on February 07, 2015, 11:14:44 AM
zero sum game, got big on Amazon, deflated with GILD, now stepped on by YELP.  I'm out, back to 1% savings plan

Good time to buy yelp - today

Yes please do! :)

Don't think of it as work, the whole point of it is just to enjoy yourself


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Dy2fo6E_pI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Dy2fo6E_pI)



too much shits, not enough giggles... feels like the market is based on emotion versus data.... I'll hang around for a few more weeks, otherwise I'll leave the fun with my future self's money

Try not to buy before earnings. A company can beat the analyst estimates, but the company's forecast can sink the stock. It all depends.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on February 09, 2015, 01:03:28 PM
zero sum game, got big on Amazon, deflated with GILD, now stepped on by YELP.  I'm out, back to 1% savings plan

Buy 10000 shares of pbr at 6.5 today Tanked 8% today on new CEO. In a couple days it will be back at  7. Easy 5k.

PS9 - did you buy PBR? you could have made an easy 2K in one day. PBR at 6.72 right now.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 09, 2015, 01:54:53 PM
zero sum game, got big on Amazon, deflated with GILD, now stepped on by YELP.  I'm out, back to 1% savings plan

Buy 10000 shares of pbr at 6.5 today Tanked 8% today on new CEO. In a couple days it will be back at  7. Easy 5k.

PS9 - did you buy PBR? you could have made an easy 2K in one day. PBR at 6.72 right now.

ps9 daytrade activity is officially suspended :(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 09, 2015, 04:59:19 PM
Required reading in all brokerage house training programs when I got licensed in the 80's....it still holds up today for anyone who wants to trade for a living.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 10, 2015, 07:10:22 AM
At qwerty, did you get out?  PBR lower this am.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on February 10, 2015, 08:34:55 AM
At qwerty, did you get out?  PBR lower this am.


Yeah I got out yesterday at 6.70. Now back in at 6.33. Also bought a bunch of VALE this morning at 7.36
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 10, 2015, 08:49:46 AM
rough calculations:  started playing with real money on 9/26/14, so from inception to now, my portfolio is up 3.5%.  Compared to DOW, in the same time period went up 3.8%. 

If we move the data point to the first day I traded stocks (1/20/15), portfolio is up 3%.  And DOW is up %1.6%

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on February 10, 2015, 09:10:09 AM
Anybody own BABA? It's at 87, IPO was 68.
rough calculations:  started playing with real money on 9/26/14, so from inception to now, my portfolio is up 3.5%.  Compared to DOW, in the same time period went up 3.8%. 

If we move the data point to the first day I traded stocks (1/20/15), portfolio is up 3%.  And DOW is up %1.6%



As long as your not down thats a win in my book
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 10, 2015, 11:34:19 PM
You guys need to learn how to trade options (especially selling naked options).  It's not for the faint of heart, but if you do your homework and have a little luck along the way you'll make a tidy profit.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 11, 2015, 06:34:10 AM
Gas prices going up... is it time to buy solar? :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 11, 2015, 07:09:19 AM
You guys need to learn how to trade options (especially selling naked options).  It's not for the faint of heart, but if you do your homework and have a little luck along the way you'll make a tidy profit.

So where do I start?  Read a book?  Googlefu?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on February 11, 2015, 09:47:54 AM
You guys need to learn how to trade options (especially selling naked options).  It's not for the faint of heart, but if you do your homework and have a little luck along the way you'll make a tidy profit.

So where do I start?  Read a book?  Googlefu?

I think USCTrojanCPA is going to offer a trade option seminar at All That Barbecue with a small fee and price of a dinner. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on February 11, 2015, 10:30:41 AM
You guys need to learn how to trade options (especially selling naked options).  It's not for the faint of heart, but if you do your homework and have a little luck along the way you'll make a tidy profit.

So where do I start?  Read a book?  Googlefu?

I think USCTrojanCPA is going to offer a trade option seminar at All That Barbecue with a small fee and price of a dinner. :)

Options are cheap to buy. But you kind have to know what your doing.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehusky on February 11, 2015, 11:18:59 AM
Early on, I realized my financial sense of timing was not very good so I lost a good deal of money on options.  Yes, I bought one of the option courses from one of the guys that used to come out on the financial news a lot. 

With regular stocks (no shorting, etc.), even if my timing is off, if the company is still good and it doesn't go bankrupt, I can always hang onto it for years to recover or make some money.

I also learned the hard way that I couldn't retire early buying and selling commodities like Ken Roberts was mentioning in his ads.   :P  At one time, I was up a lot but like in Vegas, if you continue long enough, the dealer will take all your money.   :'(  That's why I don't gamble in Vegas.

Most of my money is in stocks and I'm very comfortable with risky stocks but no tech stocks for me.  You just have to find out what you're comfortable with.  Hopefully, the lesson isn't too expensive like it was for me.   :P
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 11, 2015, 12:12:47 PM
If trading stocks is like blackjack, what is trading options comparable to ?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on February 11, 2015, 12:15:23 PM
card counting in blackjack

If trading stocks is like blackjack, what is trading options comparable to ?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on February 11, 2015, 12:17:11 PM
Early on, I realized my financial sense of timing was not very good so I lost a good deal of money on options.  Yes, I bought one of the option courses from one of the guys that used to come out on the financial news a lot. 

With regular stocks (no shorting, etc.), even if my timing is off, if the company is still good and it doesn't go bankrupt, I can always hang onto it for years to recover or make some money.

I also learned the hard way that I couldn't retire early buying and selling commodities like Ken Roberts was mentioning in his ads.   :P  At one time, I was up a lot but like in Vegas, if you continue long enough, the dealer will take all your money.   :'(  That's why I don't gamble in Vegas.

Most of my money is in stocks and I'm very comfortable with risky stocks but no tech stocks for me.  You just have to find out what you're comfortable with.  Hopefully, the lesson isn't too expensive like it was for me.   :P

So your 100% in stocks, no cash position? #veryaggresive
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 11, 2015, 12:52:29 PM
If trading stocks is like blackjack, what is trading options comparable to ?

Keno
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on February 11, 2015, 01:49:15 PM
Guys I wouldn't suggest selling naked options, at least not until you've bought them for a long enough period of time that you can understand the risks.  I used to play options almost daily, did good for awhile then lost  it all + more.  Tried some different strategies that didn't work, in part because of my impatience, but mostly because there's never any sure fire way to turn a profit easily. 

I'm assuming what USC does (since it's less risky) is sell naked puts on large caps (on indexes) that have a few months (or longer) time horizon.  This can probably make you money over time assuming a slow, steady increase of any given equity, but one big swing and you could be completely wiped out. 

You can find different examples of this every day.  Here's one for today:
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:PIR

Pier One Imports stock down 24% in one day.  If yesterday, I sold naked $14 strike June 2015 puts at .50c each, let's say I sold $5,000 dollars worth so yesterday my account was credited that amount.  By end of today, I would owe $20,000 if those were to be called. 

On the other hand, if I simply bought $5,000 worth of calls the investment would have significantly eroded, but I wouldn't owe any more than my initial investment. 

I've seen even worse scenarios where a surge or large drop in stocks can impact the option price by 10/15/20 times.  Can you imagine selling $10k worth of naked options and there is some huge catastrophy somewhere and you wake up owing $200,000. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 11, 2015, 07:10:14 PM
Guys I wouldn't suggest selling naked options, at least not until you've bought them for a long enough period of time that you can understand the risks.  I used to play options almost daily, did good for awhile then lost  it all + more.  Tried some different strategies that didn't work, in part because of my impatience, but mostly because there's never any sure fire way to turn a profit easily. 

I'm assuming what USC does (since it's less risky) is sell naked puts on large caps (on indexes) that have a few months (or longer) time horizon.  This can probably make you money over time assuming a slow, steady increase of any given equity, but one big swing and you could be completely wiped out. 

You can find different examples of this every day.  Here's one for today:
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:PIR

Pier One Imports stock down 24% in one day.  If yesterday, I sold naked $14 strike June 2015 puts at .50c each, let's say I sold $5,000 dollars worth so yesterday my account was credited that amount.  By end of today, I would owe $20,000 if those were to be called. 

On the other hand, if I simply bought $5,000 worth of calls the investment would have significantly eroded, but I wouldn't owe any more than my initial investment. 

I've seen even worse scenarios where a surge or large drop in stocks can impact the option price by 10/15/20 times.  Can you imagine selling $10k worth of naked options and there is some huge catastrophy somewhere and you wake up owing $200,000. 

I didn't understand a word you said... but thanks for sharing.  As for me, I had to put in an "application" to my online brokerage Sharebuilder to enable the option to trade options.  More like a survey of how much I own, my trading experience, etc.  All stated, nothing backed up.  Got approved later today with access to level 2 options trading. 

Here's the difference between leve 1 and level 2:

What is the difference between Level 1 and Level 2 option trading?
Here’s a breakdown:
Level 1
A Level 1 options trader has the ability to place the following types of orders:
Write a Covered Call (sell to open)
Close a Covered Call (buy to close)
Perform a Buy / Write (buy a stock position and sell a call to open)
Perform an Unwind (sell a stock position and buy a call to close)
Level 2
Level 2 gives you more options (pun intended) to choose from:
All Level 1 strategies above, plus:
Buy a call (to open)
Buy a put (to open)
Sell a call (to close)
Sell a put (to close)


This should be fun..
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on February 11, 2015, 07:40:44 PM
PS9

If you want to make money quick or lose money quick. Think about forex trading.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 11, 2015, 08:02:09 PM
PS9

If you want to make money quick or lose money quick. Think about forex trading.

If stocks are blackjack, options are keno then Forex is the lottery
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 12, 2015, 06:32:47 AM
AXP losing Costco and TSLA down near 52 wk lows
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 13, 2015, 11:14:11 PM
Guys I wouldn't suggest selling naked options, at least not until you've bought them for a long enough period of time that you can understand the risks.  I used to play options almost daily, did good for awhile then lost  it all + more.  Tried some different strategies that didn't work, in part because of my impatience, but mostly because there's never any sure fire way to turn a profit easily. 

I'm assuming what USC does (since it's less risky) is sell naked puts on large caps (on indexes) that have a few months (or longer) time horizon.  This can probably make you money over time assuming a slow, steady increase of any given equity, but one big swing and you could be completely wiped out. 

You can find different examples of this every day.  Here's one for today:
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:PIR

Pier One Imports stock down 24% in one day.  If yesterday, I sold naked $14 strike June 2015 puts at .50c each, let's say I sold $5,000 dollars worth so yesterday my account was credited that amount.  By end of today, I would owe $20,000 if those were to be called. 

On the other hand, if I simply bought $5,000 worth of calls the investment would have significantly eroded, but I wouldn't owe any more than my initial investment. 

I've seen even worse scenarios where a surge or large drop in stocks can impact the option price by 10/15/20 times.  Can you imagine selling $10k worth of naked options and there is some huge catastrophy somewhere and you wake up owing $200,000. 
You are correct, I mainly sell naked options on indexes including the VIX and VXX going both ways.  I stick to what I know best.  Have I taken losses when we had violent moves with big spikes in volatility?  I did take 5 figure losses when I got stopped out in one day during the extreme spikes in volatility, but I use stop losses so I don't get steam rolled.  Basically the goal is to squirrel enough premium away where you can more than absorb some loses.  Luckily, I'll already pulled out the capital that I started and I'm playing with house money now.  I've been able to outperform the indexes by a good bit since 2010.  For me, selling naked options is like playing craps but I take some chips off the table every time the dice are friendly. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on February 14, 2015, 07:19:32 AM
anyone check out dough.com?

Ideas?

Sorry if it has been covered already.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 15, 2015, 10:51:23 AM
http://slickdeals.net/f/7661730-3-months-of-wall-street-journal-subscription-1

WSJ for $1 (3months digital)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on February 15, 2015, 11:29:26 AM
Ps9

Another investment - getting involved in crowd funding either as an accredited or unaccredited investor
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on February 15, 2015, 03:58:20 PM
Anyone a venture capitalist here?

Saw a sign driving to Desert Premium Outlets on my way to hang out with IHS's family and friends that said, "1% loans for 30 days!" from some pawn shop. Seems like that's a pretty good gig if you know how to hustle.  At the least, you could be pulling 1% a month, and then when everything falls through, you get to sell items that you've held as collateral. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on February 22, 2015, 05:14:34 PM
(http://i1233.photobucket.com/albums/ff390/Ps99472/5C5670BE-2595-4911-AB4E-AAA0A77FCCAC_zps2io52yzi.jpg)

Got this from stock twit, enjoy
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on February 22, 2015, 06:39:31 PM
Looks like if you live long enough, the stock always go up. ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on February 23, 2015, 12:26:56 PM
(http://i1233.photobucket.com/albums/ff390/Ps99472/5C5670BE-2595-4911-AB4E-AAA0A77FCCAC_zps2io52yzi.jpg)

Got this from stock twit, enjoy

If oil goes to $20, we might go into a crisis.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 01, 2015, 03:19:56 PM
What's up with GoPro? That stock has been going down.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 01, 2015, 04:30:00 PM
it should have never been up that high to begin with.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 03, 2015, 01:46:07 PM
this is why i dont mess with chinese companies listed in the US

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-shares-time-low-people-155123985.html

it is tempting to buy though.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on March 05, 2015, 09:37:12 AM
At qwerty, did you get out?  PBR lower this am.


Yeah I got out yesterday at 6.70. Now back in at 6.33. Also bought a bunch of VALE this morning at 7.36

same stock, different outcome...ouch
(http://i61.tinypic.com/33vlqip.jpg)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2015, 09:41:37 AM
That's a decent average cost. It will rally soon. Just need to have the stomach to wait it out. Right now I have 10,000 shares of Pbr at and average of 6.32. Have another 10000 shares of vale at 7.10
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on March 05, 2015, 09:58:15 AM
That's a decent average cost. It will rally soon. Just need to have the stomach to wait it out. Right now I have 10,000 shares of Pbr at and average of 6.32. Have another 10000 shares of vale at 7.10

true...i have patience and most of my buys are long term holds.  the dividend yield rate alone makes it a great buy but obviously that can change.

i bought a bunch of builder stocks as well.  seems like this year will be good for housing
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 05, 2015, 10:42:06 AM
almost bought PBR at 6.37. I guess time to get it now it is close to 6. perhaps set a limit for 5.99
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on March 05, 2015, 10:47:49 AM
Not willing risk any funds over at the NY Casino Stock Exchange, I'm still watching from the balcony with some measure of interest.  At the bottom of this article is some data on what is clearly either extraordinary great fortune, or insider trading as it regards to LL Options.  I don't know what the investment was in this case, but a potential $36m payout??? Can someone comment on this or PM me on how something like this can be accomplished? (Yes, I know with insider trading, but how much did the person put at risk, other than their livelyhood...etc. Curious on what X amount was risked, what the downside would have been in it went the other way, things like that.)

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/03/60-minute-investigation-shows-lumber.html (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/03/60-minute-investigation-shows-lumber.html)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2015, 10:54:26 AM
almost bought PBR at 6.37. I guess time to get it now it is close to 6. perhaps set a limit for 5.99

the floor seems to be 6 (until its not right?), i would just buy it now at 6.03.  I just bought another 3,000 shares, so 13K shares and counting.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 05, 2015, 11:04:12 AM
OK if I make $10000+ in PBR, I will stop trash talking the city of Tustin.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 05, 2015, 11:05:34 AM
almost bought PBR at 6.37. I guess time to get it now it is close to 6. perhaps set a limit for 5.99

the floor seems to be 6 (until its not right?), i would just buy it now at 6.03.  I just bought another 3,000 shares, so 13K shares and counting.
Mmn.  That's close to $80K in just one stock.  #notsohumblebrag
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2015, 11:21:07 AM
almost bought PBR at 6.37. I guess time to get it now it is close to 6. perhaps set a limit for 5.99

the floor seems to be 6 (until its not right?), i would just buy it now at 6.03.  I just bought another 3,000 shares, so 13K shares and counting.
Mmn.  That's close to $80K in just one stock.  #notsohumblebrag

wasnt meant to brag. ive been very open about the trades i make. i think the details provided perhaps give people some additional insight they can benefit from (or learn from my mistakes).  besides, if i were to say i bought PBR today and just leave it at that, what is the first thing thing that people would want to ask? how many shares and at what price? also, to show the conviction i have in the trade, the shares owned is helpful.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 05, 2015, 11:24:32 AM
almost bought PBR at 6.37. I guess time to get it now it is close to 6. perhaps set a limit for 5.99

the floor seems to be 6 (until its not right?), i would just buy it now at 6.03.  I just bought another 3,000 shares, so 13K shares and counting.
Mmn.  That's close to $80K in just one stock.  #notsohumblebrag

wasnt meant to brag. ive been very open about the trades i make. i think the details provided perhaps give people some additional insight they can benefit from (or learn from my mistakes).  besides, if i were to say i bought PBR today and just leave it at that, what is the first thing thing that people would want to ask? how many shares and at what price? also, to show the conviction i have in the trade, the shares owned is helpful.
Agree.  I retreat my comment which was a failed attempt at being funny/smart  ;D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehusky on March 05, 2015, 03:00:31 PM
I think if you want to make decent money on small moves, like some on here do, you have to put in a lot per stock to begin with, unless you do options?  I usually put in less amount per stock but to make any reasonable money, it would have to double or triple.  But I tend to hold for longer periods.

That's close to $80K in just one stock. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2015, 03:13:51 PM
I think if you want to make decent money on small moves, like some on here do, you have to put in a lot per stock to begin with

yeah that is pretty much what i do.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: toady13 on March 05, 2015, 04:33:07 PM
Any thoughts on LL? Might dip in a bit.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2015, 05:06:36 PM
Any thoughts on LL? Might dip in a bit.



i think there is an over-reaction, just like when any company gets hacked and the stock price plummets that is a perfect opportunity to buy (target, etc).  they have a billion in revenue so its a good size company. i cant see them going out of business. i would expect some fines, etc and then business as usual and the stock starts a recovery. it sounds like there are potential criminal charges, not sure what that does to a companies ability to operate in any particular state (arthur andersen couldnt audit publicly traded companies and closed down), if the criminal charges dont affect their ability to do business there is probably value in the long term.  i have 13,000 shares of PBR who is pretty much covered in shit right now, but its a real business with real assets and once the scandal is behind them i think the road to recovery will happen. im hoping for at least a 100% return in PBR within the next 12 months. what is buffets famous line? buy when everyone else is selling right?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on March 05, 2015, 06:23:29 PM
do you guys buy call options on stocks like LL?  Looking at 1 year calls and the premium is pretty steep but if it even goes up 10%, it will be a good buy.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 06, 2015, 06:58:04 AM
Apple to join Dow, knocks off ATT. Apple is now a blue chip stock, not some tech fad...what if the iWatch disapponts..
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 06, 2015, 07:03:20 AM
Apple to join Dow, knocks off ATT. Apple is now a blue chip stock, not some tech fad...what if the iWatch disapponts..

Att is buying direct tv. (I think so) who knows of if it will get the fed approval.
At least they are looking for other steams of revenue.

Note: I don't own att nor do I plan to own it anytime soon.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 06, 2015, 07:08:37 AM
just got trade confirmation. 1000 shares of PBR @ 5.98
Qodzilla better be right!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 06, 2015, 07:22:26 AM
just got trade confirmation. 1000 shares of PBR @ 5.98
Qodzilla better be right!

Ha! From the stock research firms, it looks like they are giving a hold rating regarding your stock. (Don't quote me, look it up to verify yourself)  ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on March 06, 2015, 07:58:44 AM
just got trade confirmation. 1000 shares of PBR @ 5.98
Qodzilla better be right!

Ha! From the stock research firms, it looks like they are giving a hold rating regarding your stock. (Don't quote me, look it up to verify yourself)  ;)

Those ratings are rarely ahead of the curve.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 06, 2015, 09:12:40 AM
just got trade confirmation. 1000 shares of PBR @ 5.98
Qodzilla better be right!

Ha! From the stock research firms, it looks like they are giving a hold rating regarding your stock. (Don't quote me, look it up to verify yourself)  ;)

Those ratings are rarely ahead of the curve.

Independent investment research firms offer good insights which gives you quantitative and technical information, etc....
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 06, 2015, 09:16:51 AM
just got trade confirmation. 1000 shares of PBR @ 5.98
Qodzilla better be right!

PBR holding at 6 despite Dow being down 200 points. Very little downside for you here. This is going to double by 12/31/15

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 06, 2015, 09:19:51 AM
just got trade confirmation. 1000 shares of PBR @ 5.98
Qodzilla better be right!

Ha! From the stock research firms, it looks like they are giving a hold rating regarding your stock. (Don't quote me, look it up to verify yourself)  ;)

If analysts knew what they were doing they wouldn't be analysts. I'f they were accurate I could just buy based on their price targets. They do provide good data, just their conclusions suck.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 06, 2015, 09:21:25 AM
just got trade confirmation. 1000 shares of PBR @ 5.98
Qodzilla better be right!

PBR holding at 6 despite Dow being down 200 points. Very little downside for you here. This is going to double by 12/31/14.

Btw - 12/31/14 already passed
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 06, 2015, 09:30:12 AM
Yeah I caught it after I hit post. Changed bow
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 06, 2015, 09:33:24 AM
Yeah I caught it after I hit post. Changed bow
Would you recommend PBR for non-day traders?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 06, 2015, 09:55:35 AM
Yeah I caught it after I hit post. Changed bow
Would you recommend PBR for non-day traders?

You should look what JPMorgan recently said about Brazilian debt and talks about PBR. (Type Pbr in yahoo finance and read the article "things are unbelievably bad for Brazil ETFs by ETF Trends")
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 06, 2015, 10:01:33 AM
Yeah I caught it after I hit post. Changed bow
Would you recommend PBR for non-day traders?

You should look what JPMorgan recently said about Brazilian debt and talks about PBR. (Type Pbr in yahoo finance and read the article "things are unbelievably bad for Brazil ETFs by ETF Trends")

There is another article by Barrons "Brazil stocks lower as Petrobras scandal erupts & politician take heat"
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 06, 2015, 10:29:13 AM
Yeah I caught it after I hit post. Changed bow
Would you recommend PBR for non-day traders?

yeah i would. i hold 13,000 shares that i plan to hold at least till the end of the year if not longer.  i also trade it several times a week.

eyephone - ive been tracking/trading this stock for a while and am well aware of the situation in brazil, didnt need JPM to tell me that :-)   and have seen it go from $10 in march of 2014 to $20 or so in october and back to$6 right now.  i strongly believe it will double by the end of the year. the first catalyst will be the audited financials for 2014 (form 20-f) filed with the SEC before 4/30/15. If they did miss that deadline for whatever then i could see another 10-15% from today's prices, but from what i have read it is not likely they will miss the deadline.  this is the 8th largest econonomy in the world and PBR serves all of their oil needs and has vast amounts of proven reserves. you buy when the shit is hitting the fan right?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 06, 2015, 10:49:41 AM
Dream had a question, and I answered.

#JustSharingtheInfo
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on March 09, 2015, 02:10:24 PM
Another PBR nail biter day
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 09, 2015, 02:30:53 PM
i bought another 1,000 shares after hours at 5.62, i better be right :-)

every penny down today cost me $130 :-(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on March 09, 2015, 02:35:48 PM
definitely a nail biter....bought a 1000 as well...i am about half of what you are at...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 09, 2015, 02:40:08 PM
I treat PBR as a stock with 20% downside but also with more than 100% upside. classic high risk high reward.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 10, 2015, 10:10:42 AM
Another PBR nail biter day

You could of bought an apple watch with your loss with PBR. (Depending on how many shares you own - I think qwerty could of bought the whole family apple watches.)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on March 10, 2015, 10:28:22 AM
you can't have winners without losers.  entire market is down...thinking about moving new funds into brokerage and picking a few big names on sale

CSCO and INTC both are at 3% div yield right now

what do you guys think?  wait and see or its a great day to buy?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 10, 2015, 10:47:41 AM
PBR has the potential of getting a latest model MacBook Pro with the risk of Apple Watch. If you have the money to spare, take it.

Another PBR nail biter day

You could of bought an apple watch with your loss with PBR. (Depending on how many shares you own - I think qwerty could of bought the whole family apple watches.)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 10, 2015, 10:49:10 AM
INTC is a good bet. either they quit mobile and return more profit to shareholders, or they succeed and start making money in mobile. PCs and servers are not going anywhere. AMD is dying.

you can't have winners without losers.  entire market is down...thinking about moving new funds into brokerage and picking a few big names on sale

CSCO and INTC both are at 3% div yield right now

what do you guys think?  wait and see or its a great day to buy?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 10, 2015, 10:57:39 AM
you can't have winners without losers.  entire market is down...thinking about moving new funds into brokerage and picking a few big names on sale

CSCO and INTC both are at 3% div yield right now

what do you guys think?  wait and see or its a great day to buy?

My friend, my friend. Yes, the market is down today. However, before the market was down, you bought the stock knowing about the analyst downgrade and about the scandal. (I posted links above for your leisure)

Maybe you should buy lumber liquidators, buy a stock when the stock price is going down. (I'm not)

It's all about fundamentals and reading charts.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 10, 2015, 10:59:56 AM
Another PBR nail biter day

You could of bought an apple watch with your loss with PBR. (Depending on how many shares you own - I think qwerty could of bought the whole family apple watches.)

Yeah I could have bought watches for a good amount of TI members :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on March 10, 2015, 12:07:52 PM
you can't have winners without losers.  entire market is down...thinking about moving new funds into brokerage and picking a few big names on sale

CSCO and INTC both are at 3% div yield right now

what do you guys think?  wait and see or its a great day to buy?

My friend, my friend. Yes, the market is down today. However, before the market was down, you bought the stock knowing about the analyst downgrade and about the scandal. (I posted links above for your leisure)

Maybe you should buy lumber liquidators, buy a stock when the stock price is going down. (I'm not)

It's all about fundamentals and reading charts.

i am not mad or sad about my PBR bet...and it really is a bet.  my comment about market being down today was about long term investments, not bets.  buying big name stocks with decent yields on down days seems like a good idea

on the bets, i have had wild gains buying sinking ships but also have lost my shirt. PBR is a bet but better than a 50/50 in that downside is 20-30% loss with an upside being 100% gain.  its a state owned company with lots of assets and a high yield.  right now i have lost 13% which sucks but i am ok with.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 10, 2015, 01:21:47 PM
you can't have winners without losers.  entire market is down...thinking about moving new funds into brokerage and picking a few big names on sale

CSCO and INTC both are at 3% div yield right now

what do you guys think?  wait and see or its a great day to buy?

i think there will be some more down days in the next couple of weeks, i think we will get to 17,000 - 17,300 and then that is when i would buy something like SSO (2x) and ride it back up to 18,000 or in your case CSCO/INTC
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 11, 2015, 08:43:38 AM
INTC just got into iphone for their mobile chip. That's a huge win for them. looks like they are turning around in mobile.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 11, 2015, 09:24:59 AM
Pbr up 12 cents! :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on March 11, 2015, 11:11:47 AM
After all the interest in PBR from this thread, took the plunge and bought PBR yesterday near the close, but hedged with an double short oil ETF (DTO).  Looks like today is a good day with WTI oil down but PBR up :)  We'll see how it goes in the next few days but my risk tolerance is somewhat low so I might close the trade quick if things starts to go wrong.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 11, 2015, 11:31:43 AM
After all the interest in PBR from this thread, took the plunge and bought PBR yesterday near the close, but hedged with an double short oil ETF (DTO).  Looks like today is a good day with WTI oil down but PBR up :)  We'll see how it goes in the next few days but my risk tolerance is somewhat low so I might close the trade quick if things starts to go wrong.

good luck!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 12, 2015, 11:48:56 AM
PBR keeps falling, getting new 52 week lows...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 12, 2015, 11:57:03 AM
PBR keeps falling, getting new 52 week lows...

Yeah it's not looking good right now. Any bit of news and this thing just falls 2-3%. They need to get those audited results out ASAP. Once those are out things should calm down and reverse the momentum. After that there is still oil prices and the real to worry about. Still a good long term bet though, I hope...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehusky on March 13, 2015, 08:38:16 AM
Most of the natural resources stocks are near their 52 week lows so it's not surprising.  As they say, buy when the blood is gushing out (hopefully, not your own) onto the street.  This could be a good time to buy unless it drops a lot more from here, which I have experienced before.  If that happens, you just need to hold on and pray that it will come back and go to new highs.  Fortunately, every other time before, it has happened so I would expect it to happen again in the hopefully, not so distant future.

Since oil prices are still low, I can't see them roaring back anytime soon but who knows?  I would think the precious metals recovering sooner would make sense.

If a few thousand dollars of portfolio swings affects someone, then right now is probably not the time to jump in. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on March 13, 2015, 08:45:49 AM
Thinking about buying some VALE but who knows where the floor is with this sector.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 13, 2015, 08:48:44 AM
Thinking about buying some VALE but who knows where the floor is with this sector.

I have vale, down 20% sinve I got in. It's getting slaughtered today. May average down but the way it's been dropping may hold off a little bit.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 13, 2015, 08:50:50 AM
Thinking about buying some VALE but who knows where the floor is with this sector.

Look at FCX. Down 5% today. Under 18 is a good price. I'm going to buy that today.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 13, 2015, 09:47:04 AM
And this is why I can't daytrade.

ps9 where are you?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on March 13, 2015, 10:33:51 AM
After all the interest in PBR from this thread, took the plunge and bought PBR yesterday near the close, but hedged with an double short oil ETF (DTO).  Looks like today is a good day with WTI oil down but PBR up :)  We'll see how it goes in the next few days but my risk tolerance is somewhat low so I might close the trade quick if things starts to go wrong.

Sold my DTO hedge.  Since this trade, DTO was up ~12% and PBR down 6% (nice to get some gain even though my hope of PBR going up is wrong),  so essentially my PBR cost is at the current $5  price.  I think PBR is down is mostly due to oil going down and oil should stabilize or back up soon or long term so I'll probably ride this one out.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on March 13, 2015, 11:24:54 AM
I don't have PBR, in Apple land only
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on March 13, 2015, 02:14:02 PM
PBR's volume today is higher than AAPL's,  seems like unless you trade pre-market, you'll always be behind.  So the audited financials are delayed due to the corruption investigation.  And the stock won't settle until the financials are out?  Can't win here.  And no more dividends for common shares. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 13, 2015, 08:06:13 PM
PBR's volume today is higher than AAPL's,  seems like unless you trade pre-market, you'll always be behind.  So the audited financials are delayed due to the corruption investigation.  And the stock won't settle until the financials are out?  Can't win here.  And no more dividends for common shares.

PS9 - your investment analytical skills have gotten better
#impressed
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 13, 2015, 09:13:01 PM
PBR's volume today is higher than AAPL's,  seems like unless you trade pre-market, you'll always be behind.  So the audited financials are delayed due to the corruption investigation.  And the stock won't settle until the financials are out?  Can't win here.  And no more dividends for common shares.

PS9 - your investment analytical skills have gotten better
#impressed

That's the upside we are gambling on. The stock wouldn't be this depressed if not for the scandal. Once the scandal is behind them the climb back up should begin. Its the whole risk/reward ratio.

What do you guys only pick stocks that are winners? :-)

This shit is luck. You win some you lose some and just hope you come out ahead
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 14, 2015, 01:43:26 AM
PBR's volume today is higher than AAPL's,  seems like unless you trade pre-market, you'll always be behind.  So the audited financials are delayed due to the corruption investigation.  And the stock won't settle until the financials are out?  Can't win here.  And no more dividends for common shares.

PS9 - your investment analytical skills have gotten better
#impressed

That's the upside we are gambling on. The stock wouldn't be this depressed if not for the scandal. Once the scandal is behind them the climb back up should begin. Its the whole risk/reward ratio.

What do you guys only pick stocks that are winners? :-)

This shit is luck. You win some you lose some and just hope you come out ahead
That's it, I'm coming over this weekend and teaching you how to trade VIX/VXX options.  I'm going to help you earn enough on your trading to get a pimp single story home with a 3-car garage. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 14, 2015, 09:32:49 AM
There is still hope...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102504610 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102504610)

Petrobras, an emerging market oil name suffering through low crude prices and a corruption investigation, also looks appealing, Seymour said. The Brazilian giant has been "one of the worst investments to make" in the last few years.

However, as U.S.- traded shares of Petrobras have shed 50 percent in the last year to fall to $5 per share, he believes its tribulations are already priced in.

Trader Brian Kelly believes sluggishness in the wider Brazilian markets has been priced in, as well. Its currency, the real, has taken a dive as political unrest stirs.

Kelly took a short position in the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF in the last few months and said he might cover his short "in the next week or so."
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on March 14, 2015, 08:11:44 PM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13079217/1/jim-cramer-brazilian-oil-giant-petrobras-is-a-real-worry.html

Too big to fail?  Bring the market down?  Another Lehman?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: bones on March 14, 2015, 08:36:46 PM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13079217/1/jim-cramer-brazilian-oil-giant-petrobras-is-a-real-worry.html

Too big to fail?  Bring the market down?  Another Lehman?

http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,2184.msg253358.html#msg253358

8)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 14, 2015, 08:47:38 PM
I meant the floor was $5 :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 14, 2015, 10:10:12 PM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13079217/1/jim-cramer-brazilian-oil-giant-petrobras-is-a-real-worry.html

Too big to fail?  Bring the market down?  Another Lehman?

PS9 the Refi Guru is now an investment analyst  ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: bones on March 16, 2015, 06:52:28 AM
I meant the floor was $5 :-)

4.99!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 16, 2015, 08:27:50 AM
I meant the floor was $5 :-)

4.99!

About $5 :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on March 17, 2015, 12:56:43 PM
Nice 5% pop in PBR today, hopefully sustained tomorrow.  Didn't see any new info, or should I say good news.  Wonder why it shifted. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 17, 2015, 01:04:13 PM
Nice 5% pop in PBR today, hopefully sustained tomorrow.  Didn't see any new info, or should I say good news.  Wonder why it shifted. 

yeah its about time it had a good day.  i did increase my position to 15,000 shares when it was in under 5.15.  i thought about selling everything right before the close since tomorrow it will probably drop 1-3%. but just going to hold those 15K shares for a while to see how it goes.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 17, 2015, 01:05:06 PM
vale was also up over 4%, now im only down 16% :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on March 17, 2015, 02:35:53 PM
That's it, I'm coming over this weekend and teaching you how to trade VIX/VXX options.  I'm going to help you earn enough on your trading to get a pimp single story home with a 3-car garage.

is this the basic idea?  trying to understand the safe volatility trade strategy...

http://www.cboeoptionshub.com/2015/03/09/selling-volatility-safely-vix-vxx-short-volatility-option-strategies/
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 18, 2015, 01:35:36 PM
another 5% pop in PBR - newport beach here i come!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on March 20, 2015, 11:04:32 AM
I have a conspiracy theory on the market that maybe needs a poll to see how many people this holds true for.

I work for a fortune 500 and today is payday.  We are paid monthly and it's always the 2nd to last Friday of every month.  While I  haven't checked historic quotes (going back years),  I've noticed that about 8 out of 10 of my last "paydays" the dow has increased 100 points or more.

The theory is that if hundreds/thousands of large companies pay their employees a monthly salary on a similar day, then someone/something is boosting the market on these days so that employees get less shares for their $'s spent. 

Of course this could be complete coincidence (or nonsense) but it's happening again today, so just thought I'd throw it out there.

If this consistently holds true, it wouldn't be a bad play to go heavy on SPY or QQQ weekly calls the day before each payday.  Even if I was only right 70-80-% of the time, I could make a good chunk of change over time.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvine Dream on March 20, 2015, 11:15:00 AM
I have a conspiracy theory on the market that maybe needs a poll to see how many people this holds true for.

I work for a fortune 500 and today is payday.  We are paid monthly and it's always the 2nd to last Friday of every month.  While I  haven't checked historic quotes (going back years),  I've noticed that about 8 out of 10 of my last "paydays" the dow has increased 100 points or more.

The theory is that if hundreds/thousands of large companies pay their employees a monthly salary on a similar day, then someone/something is boosting the market on these days so that employees get less shares for their $'s spent. 

Of course this could be complete coincidence (or nonsense) but it's happening again today, so just thought I'd throw it out there.

If this consistently holds true, it wouldn't be a bad play to go heavy on SPY or QQQ weekly calls the day before each payday.  Even if I was only right 70-80-% of the time, I could make a good chunk of change over time.

Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on March 20, 2015, 11:25:16 AM
Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 

You're right.  Stock tend to raise at the end or beginning of the month and tend to fall in the middle of the month due to the reason you just stated.


Quote
Turn of the Month
Turn of the month is a term that refers to the tendency of stocks to rise at the turn of a month and fall in the middle of a month. This tendency is mostly related to periodic new money flows directed toward mutual funds at a beginning of every month
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/05/seasonaltrends.asp
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on March 20, 2015, 11:32:38 AM

Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 

Oops ya sorry that's what I meant that because all the 401k $ is going in (on payday) that the market rises.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: daedalus on March 20, 2015, 07:42:42 PM
There was a whispered system at my company when I was a new hire, back in the late '90s.  We called it BOWSOF.  Buy on Wednesday, Sell on Friday.  I ran a program to calculate the return and over a period of the most recent 2 or 3 years, it returned close to 300%.  As far as I know, I'm the only person who actually did the research to calculate the exact return.  I went all in, with my meager 401k.  Shortly thereafter, they instituted penalties for churning, and soon after that we were bought by another company, and the system fell apart completely.

I was so intrigued, I recall I spent a few hours on a plane flight back then running optimization studies (go Supercharts 4!) on trying to find exactly what day of the week to buy, and which to sell, and I did it on a number of companies, including the major indices.  I did not come up with anything of merit.  That said, I haven't looked at it since then.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 20, 2015, 08:07:10 PM
If there was a trading pattern that guaranteed grear returns everyone would probably know about it. And it would be callled winning :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 20, 2015, 10:13:29 PM
At least my 401k is doing well.

Just like real estate, you have to ride it out (interestingly enough, of all the the funds I can put my 401k in, the real estate one has the best return).

#InTheory
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 20, 2015, 10:29:41 PM
In a way 401k is safe. Also, a person needs to invest in stocks.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 23, 2015, 10:13:13 AM
another 5% pop in PBR - newport beach here i come!
You should start packing for Newport Beach, because PBR made a big run.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 23, 2015, 10:19:09 AM
I believe the cost basis of most of Qodzilla's PBR stock is still higher than current market price.

another 5% pop in PBR - newport beach here i come!
You should start packing for Newport Beach, because PBR made a big run.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 23, 2015, 10:32:37 AM
His avg cost is low, he kept on buying.

I believe the cost basis of most of Qodzilla's PBR stock is still higher than current market price.

another 5% pop in PBR - newport beach here i come!
You should start packing for Newport Beach, because PBR made a big run.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 23, 2015, 10:41:56 AM
I believe the cost basis of most of Qodzilla's PBR stock is still higher than current market price.

another 5% pop in PBR - newport beach here i come!
You should start packing for Newport Beach, because PBR made a big run.

yeah im averaged in at a tad over $6 on 15,000 shares. so almost break even now.  its at 5.84 right now.  still think this will hit 12 by 12/31/15.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on March 25, 2015, 09:00:17 AM
Wish I had Kraft, wake up to 40% gains and Buffett's froggy voice would've made my day
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on March 26, 2015, 07:49:27 PM
Currently, China's stock market is so reminds me of year 2000, dot-com bubble.  Even the cleaning lady starts buying stock, I think now it's good time to short. >:D

China stocks may be in serious bubble (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-may-be-in-serious-bubble-2015-03-26)
Quote
Some say that when the average “mom-and-pop” retail investors get back into the stock market, it could be time to get out. But what about when even teenagers start buying?

The Shanghai Composite Index is hovering near its seven-year closing high of 3,691, hit on Tuesday when the index completed a 10-session winning streak.

The lure of flush times on the Shanghai market is sweeping in unlikely investors by the hundreds of thousands. This week, both the China Securities Daily and the Beijing Morning Post had dueling reports about recent college graduates and, yes, teenagers buying shares.

Yet another report, this time by the Beijing News newspaper, relates that at the Beijing trading halls of China Securities Co., “even the cleaning lady” has opened an account to play the market.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 26, 2015, 07:54:03 PM
The market is down for a couple days, time to buy.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 26, 2015, 08:14:08 PM
You can buy SSO. This thing is going to go right back to 18,200
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on March 27, 2015, 01:17:05 AM
Funny thing you mentioned Chinese stocks. I am looking at a Chinese oil stock, SNP.


Currently, China's stock market is so reminds me of year 2000, dot-com bubble.  Even the cleaning lady starts buying stock, I think now it's good time to short. >:D

China stocks may be in serious bubble (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-may-be-in-serious-bubble-2015-03-26)
Quote
Some say that when the average “mom-and-pop” retail investors get back into the stock market, it could be time to get out. But what about when even teenagers start buying?

The Shanghai Composite Index is hovering near its seven-year closing high of 3,691, hit on Tuesday when the index completed a 10-session winning streak.

The lure of flush times on the Shanghai market is sweeping in unlikely investors by the hundreds of thousands. This week, both the China Securities Daily and the Beijing Morning Post had dueling reports about recent college graduates and, yes, teenagers buying shares.

Yet another report, this time by the Beijing News newspaper, relates that at the Beijing trading halls of China Securities Co., “even the cleaning lady” has opened an account to play the market.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 01, 2015, 07:24:35 AM
Now I know why I hate short term stock trading.

I finally got my Scott Trade account open (as you know I had issues with ETrade), and after watching people mention PBR and talking to ps9 offline, I decided to try it out.

I bought some (not a qwertrader amount) at around 6 but got scared when it was trading in the mid/high 5s. I asked ps9 what he was doing and he said he was getting out so I followed his lead... what a mistake.

If I kept, it's over 6 now and instead of losing a few thousand, I could be up.

Oh well... that's what I get. I'm still holding my AAPL but I guess I should start taking USCT lessons.

Lesson learned, ps9 is good at refi advice, stock trading... not so much.

EDIT: This was one of a few April Fool's posts.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 01, 2015, 07:34:16 AM
Now I know why I hate short term stock trading.

I finally got my Scott Trade account open (as you know I had issues with ETrade), and after watching people mention PBR and talking to ps9 offline, I decided to try it out.

I bought some (not a qwertrader amount) at around 6 but got scared when it was trading in the mid/high 5s. I asked ps9 what he was doing and he said he was getting out so I followed his lead... what a mistake.

If I kept, it's over 6 now and instead of losing a few thousand, I could be up.

Oh well... that's what I get. I'm still holding my AAPL but I guess I should start taking USCT lessons.

Lesson learned, ps9 is good at refi advice, stock trading... not so much.

Yup-ps9 is the refi guru, also new car broker, food expert, and amazon product tester.  ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on April 01, 2015, 07:41:29 AM
Now I know why I hate short term stock trading.

I finally got my Scott Trade account open (as you know I had issues with ETrade), and after watching people mention PBR and talking to ps9 offline, I decided to try it out.

I bought some (not a qwertrader amount) at around 6 but got scared when it was trading in the mid/high 5s. I asked ps9 what he was doing and he said he was getting out so I followed his lead... what a mistake.

If I kept, it's over 6 now and instead of losing a few thousand, I could be up.

Oh well... that's what I get. I'm still holding my AAPL but I guess I should start taking USCT lessons.

Lesson learned, ps9 is good at refi advice, stock trading... not so much.

Hey man, go big or go home.  Gotta lose money to make money.  Too bad you backed out of my offer to go in on a Papa Murphy franchise.  Got a killer lease deal from TIC.  You could've gotten a 6CWG in a couple years
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 01, 2015, 07:46:40 AM
IHO - you may get a chance to get back in. I wouldn't be surprised if the short interest increases. At 6.35 PBR is still a great value. They got some financing from China when folks thought they would not be able to get debt outside brazil. By the end of the year I still think this will be at 10-12. They are supposed to release their audited financials in a couple of weeks. The SEC approved their write down methodology so no reason they shouldn't realease. I think the wrote down will be lower than people expect and I think this goes to about 7 by the end of April. Good luck
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 01, 2015, 07:50:07 AM
Now I know why I hate short term stock trading.

I finally got my Scott Trade account open (as you know I had issues with ETrade), and after watching people mention PBR and talking to ps9 offline, I decided to try it out.

I bought some (not a qwertrader amount) at around 6 but got scared when it was trading in the mid/high 5s. I asked ps9 what he was doing and he said he was getting out so I followed his lead... what a mistake.

If I kept, it's over 6 now and instead of losing a few thousand, I could be up.

Oh well... that's what I get. I'm still holding my AAPL but I guess I should start taking USCT lessons.

Lesson learned, ps9 is good at refi advice, stock trading... not so much.

Hey man, go big or go home.  Gotta lose money to make money.  Too bad you backed out of my offer to go in on a Papa Murphy franchise.  Got a killer lease deal from TIC.  You could've gotten a 6CWG in a couple years

Add pizza man to my previous list.  ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 01, 2015, 08:19:02 AM
Now I know why I hate short term stock trading.

I finally got my Scott Trade account open (as you know I had issues with ETrade), and after watching people mention PBR and talking to ps9 offline, I decided to try it out.

I bought some (not a qwertrader amount) at around 6 but got scared when it was trading in the mid/high 5s. I asked ps9 what he was doing and he said he was getting out so I followed his lead... what a mistake.

If I kept, it's over 6 now and instead of losing a few thousand, I could be up.

Oh well... that's what I get. I'm still holding my AAPL but I guess I should start taking USCT lessons.

Lesson learned, ps9 is good at refi advice, stock trading... not so much.

Hey man, go big or go home.  Gotta lose money to make money.  Too bad you backed out of my offer to go in on a Papa Murphy franchise.  Got a killer lease deal from TIC.  You could've gotten a 6CWG in a couple years
So you're going through with that? I thought I already told you that's a bad idea, esp with all these make your own pizza places popping up.

Who is going to want to go somewhere to buy a pizza and then have to go home and bake it themselves? Pasta Bravo started out like that... and then they had to switch up to actually cooking it themselves.

I dunno... this sounds like a "I would sell PBR before it drops below 5" moment.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 01, 2015, 08:30:37 AM
Now I know why I hate short term stock trading.

I finally got my Scott Trade account open (as you know I had issues with ETrade), and after watching people mention PBR and talking to ps9 offline, I decided to try it out.

I bought some (not a qwertrader amount) at around 6 but got scared when it was trading in the mid/high 5s. I asked ps9 what he was doing and he said he was getting out so I followed his lead... what a mistake.

If I kept, it's over 6 now and instead of losing a few thousand, I could be up.

Oh well... that's what I get. I'm still holding my AAPL but I guess I should start taking USCT lessons.

Lesson learned, ps9 is good at refi advice, stock trading... not so much.

Hey man, go big or go home.  Gotta lose money to make money.  Too bad you backed out of my offer to go in on a Papa Murphy franchise.  Got a killer lease deal from TIC.  You could've gotten a 6CWG in a couple years
So you're going through with that? I thought I already told you that's a bad idea, esp with all these make your own pizza places popping up.

Who is going to want to go somewhere to buy a pizza and then have to go home and bake it themselves? Pasta Bravo started out like that... and then they had to switch up to actually cooking it themselves.

I dunno... this sounds like a "I would sell PBR before it drops below 5" moment.

I'm with you homeowner. Yeah the pizza trend/fad is choose the ingredients for the personal size pizza.

PS9 - the upside I see in the pre made pizza is you don't have to spend money on the stove/oven. Maybe just a stainless steel table and your good to go.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 01, 2015, 08:35:40 AM
A papa murphys franchise is a horrible idea. Good luck
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 01, 2015, 09:20:13 AM
FCX, got slaughtered today, the last couple of days actually since copper plunged. Picked some up in my account and my inlaws account. For those who missed out on NBR the last time it was 10, closed at 10.36, picked up some more today.

I continue to accumulate at these prices. ;)

Keep your eye on NBR
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 01, 2015, 09:43:07 AM
FCX, got slaughtered today, the last couple of days actually since copper plunged. Picked some up in my account and my inlaws account. For those who missed out on NBR the last time it was 10, closed at 10.36, picked up some more today.

I continue to accumulate at these prices. ;)

Keep your eye on NBR

Was going to post About this. Hope others bought as well. Over 14 now. Great pick
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 01, 2015, 10:44:26 AM
Vale is in the low 5.50s. if you believe the forecast for ron ore to be 60-70 in 2016 (at $49 right now), then this would be a good buy.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 02, 2015, 10:17:12 AM
RKP - u still in Pbr right?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on April 02, 2015, 11:03:07 AM
yes sirree...and i actually did NBR at 13 too so thats a nice little bump
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 06, 2015, 10:48:31 AM
Time to load up on some energy stocks.

I concur

Could not have timed that better
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 06, 2015, 11:26:42 AM
NBR up just about 50% since your recommendation. excellent call/timing.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 08, 2015, 06:37:18 AM
Pbr up to 7.15, vale at 6.25, like the old adage says, buy when everyone is selling. Brazil is the 8th largest economy. Pbr produces more oil than Exxon. Vale is the third largest miner in the world. Still plenty of upside.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on April 08, 2015, 06:58:53 AM
Pbr up to 7.15, vale at 6.25, like the old adage says, buy when everyone is selling. Brazil is the 8th largest economy. Pbr produces more oil than Exxon. Vale is the third largest miner in the world. Still plenty of upside.

thank you very much qwerty !! I got both based on the recommendations here .. Up 30%+ now in PBR and around 8% in VALE ..  At which price point would you start taking some profit off the table ?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 08, 2015, 07:41:42 AM
Pbr up to 7.15, vale at 6.25, like the old adage says, buy when everyone is selling. Brazil is the 8th largest economy. Pbr produces more oil than Exxon. Vale is the third largest miner in the world. Still plenty of upside.

thank you very much qwerty !! I got both based on the recommendations here .. Up 30%+ now in PBR and around 8% in VALE ..  At which price point would you start taking some profit off the table ?

It really depends on your risk tolerance. There is probably some sort of pullback because of the fast run up. But I think it hits 7.75-8.00 when the audited results are released by the end of April. And I think it will be at 12 by end of the year. This thing was at 20 in late 2014 and nothing has fundamentally changed. For the same time frame vale has less upside but also less downside, iron ore is as low as it's been in a very long time. I don't think u can go wrong holding these fir a while but you know your finances so do what you are comfortable with. Good luck!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 08, 2015, 07:51:22 AM
NBR is down a couple of % today, I would buy this on the dips as well.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on April 08, 2015, 07:51:34 AM
lets keep rolling...which stocks do you have your eyes morekaos and qwerty?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on April 08, 2015, 08:50:27 AM
Pbr up to 7.15, vale at 6.25, like the old adage says, buy when everyone is selling. Brazil is the 8th largest economy. Pbr produces more oil than Exxon. Vale is the third largest miner in the world. Still plenty of upside.

thank you very much qwerty !! I got both based on the recommendations here .. Up 30%+ now in PBR and around 8% in VALE ..  At which price point would you start taking some profit off the table ?

It really depends on your risk tolerance. There is probably some sort of pullback because of the fast run up. But I think it hits 7.75-8.00 when the audited results are released by the end of April. And I think it will be at 12 by end of the year. This thing was at 20 in late 2014 and nothing has fundamentally changed. For the same time frame vale has less upside but also less downside, iron ore is as low as it's been in a very long time. I don't think u can go wrong holding these fir a while but you know your finances so do what you are comfortable with. Good luck!

Will probably hold on to it as its on my Roth IRA account anyway (tax free gain :))... keep those suggestions coming :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 08, 2015, 08:54:06 AM
lets keep rolling...which stocks do you have your eyes morekaos and qwerty?

I've traded FCX recently and believe there is big upside in the next two years but haven't establishd a long term position but probably will soon, under 19 today. SPLK is another one I like. I had this at 45 and sold at 50. It's at 63 today.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 08, 2015, 09:09:05 AM
Artx is one I've thought about but probably for a longer time horizon, 2-3 years, small company but could double your money in 2-3 years. Don't expect the quick gains like pbr on this one.

EWZ as well, a brazil etf. If you do pbr you may not want to do this one, could be too much brazil exposure for some to tolerate.  But I think Brazil will come out much better after the pbr scandal.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on April 08, 2015, 09:22:25 AM
Roth IRA...I am still regretting I did not do it when I was still eligible...

Pbr up to 7.15, vale at 6.25, like the old adage says, buy when everyone is selling. Brazil is the 8th largest economy. Pbr produces more oil than Exxon. Vale is the third largest miner in the world. Still plenty of upside.

thank you very much qwerty !! I got both based on the recommendations here .. Up 30%+ now in PBR and around 8% in VALE ..  At which price point would you start taking some profit off the table ?

It really depends on your risk tolerance. There is probably some sort of pullback because of the fast run up. But I think it hits 7.75-8.00 when the audited results are released by the end of April. And I think it will be at 12 by end of the year. This thing was at 20 in late 2014 and nothing has fundamentally changed. For the same time frame vale has less upside but also less downside, iron ore is as low as it's been in a very long time. I don't think u can go wrong holding these fir a while but you know your finances so do what you are comfortable with. Good luck!

Will probably hold on to it as its on my Roth IRA account anyway (tax free gain :))... keep those suggestions coming :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on April 08, 2015, 09:35:34 AM
Roth IRA...I am still regretting I did not do it when I was still eligible...

cant you still do the after tax to IRA to roth conversion trick?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 09, 2015, 07:38:47 AM
Pbr up another 6% today. At 7.36. Up over 50% since it hit the low of 5 recently. Almost 50% runup with plenty of room to go.

TCCC - have u hit 10k yet?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on April 09, 2015, 08:55:51 AM
no just the initial small investment of 1000 shares @ little under $6

Pbr up another 6% today. At 7.36. Up over 50% since it hit the low of 5 recently. Almost 50% runup with plenty of room to go.

TCCC - have u hit 10k yet?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on April 11, 2015, 08:47:57 AM
Great thread!

Just got a new job washing cars and gardening after I got kicked out for panhandling in Foothill Ranch (Thanks TCCC for narcing on me)

Therefore, I have some pennies (and quarters from the rich Irvinites who visited me) to play with.  Will be following this thread! 

Where you guys at with oil right now?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 14, 2015, 09:13:13 AM
Time to load up on some energy stocks.

I concur

Could not have timed that better

Buy when others are selling...sell when others are buying.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/102582924 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102582924)

All of the sudden, this sector is crushing the market


If April is supposed to be the cruelest month, don't tell the energy sector.

 S&P 500 energy stocks are up 6.5 percent over the past month. That is more than double the performance of the next best-performing sector, health care. In fact, energy stocks have risen by more in April than the S&P 500 has risen all year.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on April 15, 2015, 12:04:15 PM
Buy when others are selling...sell when others are buying.

which market is everyone selling now?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 15, 2015, 12:24:59 PM
Transports are weak...but that may be bad overall for the markets
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 15, 2015, 01:33:02 PM
PBR/NBR have been tearing it up lately, PBR closed at 8.90 and NBR at 15.5. Vale which i was still pushing at 5.5 several weeks ago is at 6.19 today. FCX which i commented on when it was low 18s several days ago closed at 20.65. i did end up buying 1500 shares of FCX in the low 18s to open a long term position, i should have bought more :-(

Brazil was dragged down by the PBR corruption scandal, those were once in a lifetime prices on PBR at $5, other brazil companies were dragged down with it making brazilian equities very cheap.  Audited financials should be released on 4/22, though with this run up it starting to feel like the classic buy the rumor sell the news situation, although PBR i think is still so undervalued right now the selloff may not come when the results are audited.  i was thinking this would hit 12 by 12/31/15 but now i think that will be closer to $20, 8th largest economy and pumps out more oil than Exxon with 13B barrels in proven reserves and all of it is PBRs.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on April 15, 2015, 05:08:14 PM
.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvine Dream on April 15, 2015, 05:18:44 PM
.

GH, don't worry, you didn't have to delete your post.  No one from here is going come ask you to lend them some money.  Good job investing
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on April 16, 2015, 09:16:07 AM
.

GH, don't worry, you didn't have to delete your post.  No one from here is going come ask you to lend them some money.  Good job investing

My math was actually wrong and have to leave before the chance to edit it ..  But, basically sold 1/3 of my PBR yesterday .. I originally thought I have recovered all my capital back and the remaining shares are all profit, but math actually was not correct.  Either way, am happy to take some off the table .. thanks again everyone especially qwerty for the recommendation !!  :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 16, 2015, 12:20:12 PM
I haven't teased USC about NFLX in a while and I just looked at it today because of a news report of them having record sign-ups (and if you haven't watched the Daredevil series, you are missing out).

I can't believe it's gone up $150 in the last 2 weeks, from $412 to $564... bonkers. Should have gone in at $70.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehusky on April 16, 2015, 02:24:45 PM
Like they say, you don't lose money taking profits.   :P

My math was actually wrong and have to leave before the chance to edit it ..  But, basically sold 1/3 of my PBR yesterday .. I originally thought I have recovered all my capital back and the remaining shares are all profit, but math actually was not correct.  Either way, am happy to take some off the table .. thanks again everyone especially qwerty for the recommendation !!  :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 20, 2015, 05:52:18 PM
Pbr releases audited results on Wednesday. Excluding the scandal related write down and other potential impairments I think earnings will surprise to the upside and think it will pop 5-10% on Thursday. This could be the last chance to get pbr for under $9/share, well at least until the next scandal :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 21, 2015, 12:22:39 AM
I haven't teased USC about NFLX in a while and I just looked at it today because of a news report of them having record sign-ups (and if you haven't watched the Daredevil series, you are missing out).

I can't believe it's gone up $150 in the last 2 weeks, from $412 to $564... bonkers. Should have gone in at $70.
I don't trade momo stocks.  I continue to trade what I know best (VIX/VXX) and have profited very nicely so far this year.  :D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 21, 2015, 07:27:02 AM
I haven't teased USC about NFLX in a while and I just looked at it today because of a news report of them having record sign-ups (and if you haven't watched the Daredevil series, you are missing out).

I can't believe it's gone up $150 in the last 2 weeks, from $412 to $564... bonkers. Should have gone in at $70.
I don't trade momo stocks.  I continue to trade what I know best (VIX/VXX) and have profited very nicely so far this year.  :D
You keep saying that but you were the one who said Netflix would go out of business and I don't think you said why (whereas I stated why I don't think so because we use Netflix all the time).

Just own it. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 21, 2015, 02:15:49 PM
I haven't teased USC about NFLX in a while and I just looked at it today because of a news report of them having record sign-ups (and if you haven't watched the Daredevil series, you are missing out).

I can't believe it's gone up $150 in the last 2 weeks, from $412 to $564... bonkers. Should have gone in at $70.
I don't trade momo stocks.  I continue to trade what I know best (VIX/VXX) and have profited very nicely so far this year.  :D
You keep saying that but you were the one who said Netflix would go out of business and I don't think you said why (whereas I stated why I don't think so because we use Netflix all the time).

Just own it. :)
I was wrong, happens every now and again.  I never traded NFLX and never will along with never using the service so I could care less about the company or where its stock price is at.  It's all about the VIX/VXX for me.  :D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 21, 2015, 02:25:41 PM
I never traded NFLX and never will along with never using the service so I could care less about the company or where its stock price is at.
And that's why I said that I don't think you can make that call.

It's like me saying that BMW or Porsche is going to go out of business when I don't know anything about their cars nor do I drive them. :)

P.S. When you have kids, you will care more about Netflix.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 22, 2015, 04:24:17 PM
PBR financials are out. the impairment related to the bribes was 2.1B and then a regular impairment of 14.8B on other assets.  that is the big monkey of the back of PBR.  its up over 9 after hours. Today was a great day for the qwerty household, Vale up 10%, NBR up almost 5% and PBR up 4%.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on April 22, 2015, 04:32:46 PM
PBR financials are out. the impairment related to the bribes was 2.1B and then a regular impairment of 14.8B on other assets.  that is the big monkey of the back of PBR.  its up over 9 after hours. Today was a great day for the qwerty household, Vale up 10%, NBR up almost 5% and PBR up 4%.

hahaha.  I also have little VALE in the 5.80ish also based on your recommendation .. Was thinking of NBR, but can't pull the trigger as I already have too much commodities related play for comfort.. Thanks again !! 8)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on April 22, 2015, 06:37:54 PM
PBR financials are out. the impairment related to the bribes was 2.1B and then a regular impairment of 14.8B on other assets.  that is the big monkey of the back of PBR.  its up over 9 after hours. Today was a great day for the qwerty household, Vale up 10%, NBR up almost 5% and PBR up 4%.

Congrats, too bad Kobe's house is off the market!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 23, 2015, 07:43:21 AM
"Success is uncommon, therefore not to be enjoyed by the Common Man"~Coach Cal Stoll
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on April 23, 2015, 10:34:52 AM
PBR financials are out. the impairment related to the bribes was 2.1B and then a regular impairment of 14.8B on other assets.  that is the big monkey of the back of PBR.  its up over 9 after hours. Today was a great day for the qwerty household, Vale up 10%, NBR up almost 5% and PBR up 4%.

PBR up another 5%, VALE 7%, NBR 4% today... way to go qwerty !!   8)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on April 23, 2015, 10:54:39 AM
ive been on dessert binge the last couple of nights. last night i picked up some donuts from DKs Donuts in orange, pretty damn good donuts. got the blueberry crumb, a couple of red velvets and some cronut holes. all of them were excellent.

And shortly after Qwerty's visit, Dunkin' Brands boosts 2015 outlook (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dunkin-brands-boosts-2015-outlook-2015-04-23) :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 23, 2015, 11:18:23 AM
PBR financials are out. the impairment related to the bribes was 2.1B and then a regular impairment of 14.8B on other assets.  that is the big monkey of the back of PBR.  its up over 9 after hours. Today was a great day for the qwerty household, Vale up 10%, NBR up almost 5% and PBR up 4%.

PBR up another 5%, VALE 7%, NBR 4% today... way to go qwerty !!   8)

at 5am in pre-market PBR was down to like 8.43, was thinking yesterdays gains were going away, pretty lucky. On a separate note, i just submitted an offer on Kobe's house in case the first one falls through :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 23, 2015, 11:19:21 AM
ive been on dessert binge the last couple of nights. last night i picked up some donuts from DKs Donuts in orange, pretty damn good donuts. got the blueberry crumb, a couple of red velvets and some cronut holes. all of them were excellent.

And shortly after Qwerty's visit, Dunkin' Brands boosts 2015 outlook (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dunkin-brands-boosts-2015-outlook-2015-04-23) :)

i went to DK's in orange, not dunkin donuts, but given my midas touch recently i have no doubt my donut shop visit benefited the entire donut industry :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: bones on April 23, 2015, 11:40:54 AM
ive been on dessert binge the last couple of nights. last night i picked up some donuts from DKs Donuts in orange, pretty damn good donuts. got the blueberry crumb, a couple of red velvets and some cronut holes. all of them were excellent.

And shortly after Qwerty's visit, Dunkin' Brands boosts 2015 outlook (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dunkin-brands-boosts-2015-outlook-2015-04-23) :)

Everything Qwerty touches turns brown :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on April 23, 2015, 12:12:35 PM

Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 

Oops ya sorry that's what I meant that because all the 401k $ is going in (on payday) that the market rises.

Tomorrow is payday.  Time to test the theory again. 

At the time of this post, I can buy QQQ Apr 24 calls ($109 strike) for .24 ask price.  We'll see what they end at tomorrow.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on April 24, 2015, 01:47:25 PM

Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 

Oops ya sorry that's what I meant that because all the 401k $ is going in (on payday) that the market rises.

Tomorrow is payday.  Time to test the theory again. 

At the time of this post, I can buy QQQ Apr 24 calls ($109 strike) for .24 ask price.  We'll see what they end at tomorrow.

Did you buy the call ?  that's an easy 6-bagger.. It closed around $1.50
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on April 24, 2015, 03:11:23 PM

Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 

Oops ya sorry that's what I meant that because all the 401k $ is going in (on payday) that the market rises.

Tomorrow is payday.  Time to test the theory again. 

At the time of this post, I can buy QQQ Apr 24 calls ($109 strike) for .24 ask price.  We'll see what they end at tomorrow.

Did you buy the call ?  that's an easy 6-bagger.. It closed around $1.50

Nope, just testing the theory - but seriously, 8 of my last 10 paydays have the same result.  I think starting next month I'll be putting my $ where my mouth is on QQQ calls the Thursday before payday.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 28, 2015, 01:27:55 PM
Twitter stock drops after earnings. (Time to buy)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 28, 2015, 02:06:04 PM
Twitter stock drops after earnings. (Time to buy)

yeah i was debating buying some shares after hours. this is the classic over-reaction.  it will be back at 50 in 2-3months. i would think this will go up 3-5% tomorrow.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on April 28, 2015, 02:21:31 PM
Twitter stock drops after earnings. (Time to buy)

yeah i was debating buying some shares after hours. this is the classic over-reaction.  it will be back at 50 in 2-3months. i would think this will go up 3-5% tomorrow.

wow someone needs to get investigated.. those earnings got leaked before close of bell. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 28, 2015, 02:29:58 PM
they were disseminated to the general public. no insider trading or anything. what is the issue?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 28, 2015, 02:31:52 PM
there is a protocol that needs to be followed, your earnings release etc have to be submitted to Nasdaq/NYSE before you release earnings to the public so i guess you can look at that but that may have happened.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on April 28, 2015, 02:36:15 PM
there is a protocol that needs to be followed, your earnings release etc have to be submitted to Nasdaq/NYSE before you release earnings to the public so i guess you can look at that but that may have happened.

not sure what happened but it hit the headlines. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on April 28, 2015, 02:51:40 PM
Twitter stock drops after earnings. (Time to buy)

yeah i was debating buying some shares after hours. this is the classic over-reaction.  it will be back at 50 in 2-3months. i would think this will go up 3-5% tomorrow.

"Revenue jumped 74 percent from the year-earlier period, but the total was worse than even the most pessimistic of the 36 analyst estimates compiled by Thomson Reuters. "

This is very bad especially for a high-flyer growth stock like TWTR.  It would probably take a couple of down days before this settles.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 29, 2015, 10:15:50 AM
Bought 2000 shares of TWTR at 39.70. Just a straight gamble on this one. Have a sell order at 45.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on April 29, 2015, 11:42:22 AM
got some TWTR shares @39.4; let it ride!

Bought 2000 shares of TWTR at 39.70. Just a straight gamble on this one. Have a sell order at 45.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 29, 2015, 11:49:45 AM
got some TWTR shares @39.4; let it ride!

Bought 2000 shares of TWTR at 39.70. Just a straight gamble on this one. Have a sell order at 45.

at 38.82 right now, its a good thing i didnt buy any after hours yesterday. so much for the 3-5% pop. still think its a good buy right now to hold for a couple of months.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on April 29, 2015, 12:02:01 PM
I bought TWTR on IPO day at like $40 and have held it ever since.  I don't have much to show for it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 29, 2015, 12:14:36 PM
You guys should be buying NFLX. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 29, 2015, 12:45:17 PM
You guys should be buying NFLX. :)

Price is too high.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 29, 2015, 01:57:49 PM
Is ps9 jumping on DIS?

Avengers: AOU is doing huge international box office and it's going to own most of the summer in the US.

Then Star Wars in December.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: toady13 on April 29, 2015, 02:37:28 PM
This TWTR fiasco is a ploy to get the market cap down so FB or google will by them.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 29, 2015, 03:08:50 PM
According to cnbc and other articles: Salesforce might get acquired
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 29, 2015, 03:37:21 PM
This TWTR fiasco is a ploy to get the market cap down so FB or google will by them.

not sure if it is a ploy or not, but i have always thought of twtr as a complementary product in a portfolio of products offered by a larger media/technology company.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on April 29, 2015, 05:56:36 PM
It's hard for me to get into Twitter being that I don't value the company very much personally.

QWERTY- are you investing in things like UGAZ or UWTI?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 29, 2015, 06:07:36 PM
No - I thought about uwti when oil was in the 40s but was too chicken. After this run up I'm thinking of dwti but still don't have courage. I'll sds and SSO occasionally which is 2x. Right now may be a good time for sds
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 29, 2015, 06:42:16 PM
Yelp took a dive in after hours.

The lawsuit against Yelp was dismissed earlier this month.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on April 29, 2015, 07:39:15 PM
ok what price to get Yelp tomorrow? buy @ $43?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on April 29, 2015, 07:41:56 PM
ok what price to get Yelp tomorrow? buy @ $43?

Two straight quarters of weak/missed earnings, weak guidance, and revised google searches steering traffic away from yelp.  Stay away
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on April 30, 2015, 09:46:16 AM
Is ps9 jumping on DIS?

Avengers: AOU is doing huge international box office and it's going to own most of the summer in the US.

Then Star Wars in December.

Waiting for AAPL div's then gonna free up some cash, might consider DIS if it dips below $100 but missed that chance already. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on April 30, 2015, 10:02:15 AM
Yelp is getting pummeled, start of a downward spiral?  Or a Netflix rebound. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 30, 2015, 10:54:57 AM
ok what price to get Yelp tomorrow? buy @ $43?

I would would wait. I think it will drop lower.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 30, 2015, 11:54:35 AM
The market is taking a dive. Timber!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 30, 2015, 12:06:52 PM
this is the kind of day i like to buy SSO, 200+ point drop in dow then within a week or two you are back at 18,100
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 30, 2015, 12:11:40 PM
Yawn, The Dow is exactly where it started on January 1, 2015.  FLAT. The S and P is close too, up only 1.36% year to date.  For all intents and purposes FLAT.  As I have said. This is a traders dream, and investors' nightmare. Nothing will change until the actual first interest rate hike happens. I still think in June but we shall see.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on April 30, 2015, 12:12:41 PM
According to the market rumor, the drop is trigger by qwerty "the whale of Tustin" unloading his shares. ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on April 30, 2015, 01:21:26 PM
got some INTC @ $32.5. I expect them to succeed in mobile (iPhone 7 for example) or ultimately quit that money losing business. @ near 3% dividend so the downside risk is minimal I hope.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on April 30, 2015, 01:29:57 PM
After TWTR, its LinkedIn's turn to go down 20% due to weak revenue and earning forecast.  High flying internet stocks slowly losing their luster ..
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on April 30, 2015, 01:37:14 PM
time to load up on Yelp, LinkedIn and LL. Buy whenever there is 20+% drop in stock price!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on April 30, 2015, 01:37:38 PM
After TWTR, its LinkedIn's turn to go down 20% due to weak revenue and earning forecast.  High flying internet stocks slowly losing their luster ..


thats right you tell them GH, its all about commodities! :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 30, 2015, 01:53:19 PM
time to load up on Yelp, LinkedIn and LL. Buy whenever there is 20+% drop in stock price!

I don't know about LL. Isn't the DOJ seeking criminal charges? The CFO is or has resigned. Sounds like a mess.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on April 30, 2015, 02:01:55 PM
it is called gambling. one or two of these 20+% drop stocks will bounce back, right? just need to hit it big once.

time to load up on Yelp, LinkedIn and LL. Buy whenever there is 20+% drop in stock price!

I don't know about LL. Isn't the DOJ seeking criminal charges? The CFO is or has resigned. Sounds like a mess.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 30, 2015, 02:19:00 PM
Just ask USCT which company he thinks will go out of business, that's the one that will skyrocket. :)

#Ha
#IJustDoVIXXCalls
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on April 30, 2015, 05:21:38 PM
QWERTY- are you investing in things like UGAZ or UWTI?

Posted this yesterday -

Today - nearly 16% in the green!

Missed that boat with a limit buy 2c away when it was in the high 1.70s.

Got greedy and missed out on money, haha. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 30, 2015, 08:45:15 PM
Operating Margin:
Linkedin 1%
FB 39%
Google 26%
Twitter 23%

I think I'll pass on Linkedin.
it is called gambling. one or two of these 20+% drop stocks will bounce back, right? just need to hit it big once.

time to load up on Yelp, LinkedIn and LL. Buy whenever there is 20+% drop in stock price!

I don't know about LL. Isn't the DOJ seeking criminal charges? The CFO is or has resigned. Sounds like a mess.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on May 01, 2015, 12:10:52 PM
Lose 194 one day, gain 171 the very next day...net move 22 points...Traders dream. ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 01, 2015, 01:30:00 PM
yup bought AAPL at $125.5 and INTC @ $32.5 yesterday and it has offset my gamble with AAPL @ $130 and TWTR @ $39.4 the day earlier.

I am waiting for COST to drop and get in. I want to buy COST since 2011 but never pulled the trigger...


Lose 194 one day, gain 171 the very next day...net move 22 points...Traders dream. ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on May 04, 2015, 11:06:26 AM
Love em and leave em...not the time to get married and have kids
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 05, 2015, 09:23:40 AM
PBR @ $10.3. Qwerty are you moving to Hidden Canyon or Newport Beach now ?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 05, 2015, 09:25:35 AM
PBR @ $10.3. Qwerty are you moving to Hidden Canyon or Newport Beach now ?

Newport Beach, straight cash homie.

And Vale is over 8 and NBR almost 17 :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on May 07, 2015, 07:11:41 AM
Keurig Green Mountain falls after earrings.
Also, Whole Foods falls after it releases earnings.

Good time to get in?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: bones on May 07, 2015, 07:27:51 AM
Whole paycheck no more?
http://fortune.com/2015/05/06/whole-foods-millennials/
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 07, 2015, 02:50:08 PM
Yelp +20% !!!!
I did not buy any shares :(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 07, 2015, 03:03:04 PM
Yelp +20% !!!!
I did not buy any shares :(

gotta go with your gut man, a lot of times that is better than trying to research a stock.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on May 07, 2015, 03:14:47 PM
Yelp +20% !!!!
I did not buy any shares :(

gotta go with your gut man, a lot of times that is better than trying to research a stock.

Good short candidates actually I think (don't have the guts though).  Looks like they are putting themselves up for sale after a horrible quarter rather than unsolicted offer to buy, so am not sure why an acquirer would pay high premium to acquire them (assuming the rumor is true).

Salesforce (CRM) also a good short candidate.. I doubt they will be eventually acquired (too big and would probably face lots of antitrust issue).
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on May 11, 2015, 08:57:09 AM
http://slickdeals.net/f/7661730-3-months-of-wall-street-journal-subscription-1

WSJ for $1 (3months digital)
Cancel cancel cancel 800-JOURNAL
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 11, 2015, 09:10:17 AM
who needs WSJ when we have Qwertuffet

http://slickdeals.net/f/7661730-3-months-of-wall-street-journal-subscription-1

WSJ for $1 (3months digital)
Cancel cancel cancel 800-JOURNAL
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on May 11, 2015, 11:53:45 AM
Alibaba just invested in a US company Zulily. Ticker symbol ZU

So I went to visit Zulily's website. It looks like they want the user to sign up, just to browse Zulily's website. (Why should I give my email address, just to browse) I was going to pick up some shares of Zulily's, but since it's hard to browse the website, scratch that idea.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on May 11, 2015, 12:49:32 PM
Watch the bond. TNX TYX shooting up.  I think rate hike coming sooner then most think.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 11, 2015, 01:26:19 PM
Alibaba just invested in a US company Zulily. Ticker symbol ZU

So I went to visit Zulily's website. It looks like they want the user to sign up, just to browse Zulily's website. (Why should I give my email address, just to browse) I was going to pick up some shares of Zulily's, but since it's hard to browse the website, scratch that idea.



my wife shops there for our daughter.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on May 12, 2015, 06:09:04 AM
"NEW YORK - Wireless giant Verizon (VZ) is buying AOL for $4.4 billion in a deal that will expand its ability to deliver mobile video and advertising services.

AOL owns The Huffington Post, TechCrunch, Engadget, MAKERS and AOL.com. It also operates the second-largest online video network in the U.S. "


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/verizon-to-buy-aol-for-4-4-billion/




Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on May 12, 2015, 09:31:03 AM
DTV and AT&T merge soon?  What's going on yaliu?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Crispy3 on May 12, 2015, 10:02:01 AM
USC you sell VIX calls right?
catch this yesterday?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RreTZfS6tiY&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 12, 2015, 12:52:04 PM
USC you sell VIX calls right?
catch this yesterday?
Yeah, I read the article.  I sell both VIX calls and puts as well as VXX calls and puts.  For my larger VIX calls, I sell way out of the money.....25-35 with stops.  Then I'll also do straddles and strangles.  I did notice a pop in the VIX/VXX around when that trade was made.  One thing that has worked like a charm this year is to sell VIX/VXX puts everytime we are near the times and/or when the VIX/VXX takes a dump because the VIX will only go so low before it bounces (think of it like a rubber band....if it gets stretched too much one way or another it will snap back to the norm). 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 12, 2015, 01:29:39 PM
here is my trade of the day: purchased SDS at 20.46. SDS is an inverse leveraged ETF, so S&P 500 goes down 1%, i make 2%. S&P 500 has been trading between 1900 and 2100 for 2015, today it closed at 2099 so will ride this down into the 1900's and get out. then ill probably by SSO when i exit SDS, SSO does the opposite of SDS.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Crispy3 on May 13, 2015, 09:15:31 AM
I am all in on oil.. specifically SDRL. built up a decent position with an avg of $14.
also Jan '16 and '17 $20 calls

I think oil has bottomed.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 13, 2015, 03:41:31 PM
I am all in on oil.. specifically SDRL. built up a decent position with an avg of $14.
also Jan '16 and '17 $20 calls

I think oil has bottomed.


If that's the case, this bodes well for my VIX/VXX trading.  :D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on May 13, 2015, 04:30:57 PM
here is my trade of the day: purchased SDS at 20.46. SDS is an inverse leveraged ETF, so S&P 500 goes down 1%, i make 2%. S&P 500 has been trading between 1900 and 2100 for 2015, today it closed at 2099 so will ride this down into the 1900's and get out. then ill probably by SSO when i exit SDS, SSO does the opposite of SDS.

Might as well buy SPXS / SPXL.  It's triple leveraged for 50% more profit than the tickers mentioned above...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 13, 2015, 04:54:26 PM
here is my trade of the day: purchased SDS at 20.46. SDS is an inverse leveraged ETF, so S&P 500 goes down 1%, i make 2%. S&P 500 has been trading between 1900 and 2100 for 2015, today it closed at 2099 so will ride this down into the 1900's and get out. then ill probably by SSO when i exit SDS, SSO does the opposite of SDS.

Might as well buy SPXS / SPXL.  It's triple leveraged for 50% more profit than the tickers mentioned above...

Well nothing is guaranteed so don't want to get too aggressive
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on May 14, 2015, 06:54:52 AM
yup bought AAPL at $125.5 and INTC @ $32.5 yesterday and it has offset my gamble with AAPL @ $130 and TWTR @ $39.4 the day earlier.

I am waiting for COST to drop and get in. I want to buy COST since 2011 but never pulled the trigger...


Lose 194 one day, gain 171 the very next day...net move 22 points...Traders dream. ;)

Time to get some COST?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 14, 2015, 09:17:33 AM
got some COST at $142.8 yesterday and it is down 1% today...perhaps I will increase my position if it hits $140, which seems like a good technical resistance line.

Not sure why COST is down, maybe because of the weak resale data? but if the weak resale data indicates the lack of willingness to spend, it should favor Costco; plus Costco gets a lot of its profit from membership fees and its members are extremely loyal; the renewal rate is getting higher year and year.

what drags down Costco stock price are the fallen oil price for their gas sales (which I hope hits the bottom as I have exposures in energy stocks) and a strong dollar (dollar is not as strong as before, perhaps due to improving Europe's economy and US economy is being stalled). Excluding those two factors, underlying fundamentals for Costco remain very strong.

Let's hope I am right.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on May 14, 2015, 02:10:20 PM
here is my trade of the day: purchased SDS at 20.46. SDS is an inverse leveraged ETF, so S&P 500 goes down 1%, i make 2%. S&P 500 has been trading between 1900 and 2100 for 2015, today it closed at 2099 so will ride this down into the 1900's and get out. then ill probably by SSO when i exit SDS, SSO does the opposite of SDS.

Might as well buy SPXS / SPXL.  It's triple leveraged for 50% more profit than the tickers mentioned above...

Well nothing is guaranteed so don't want to get too aggressive

Good thing you didn't buy the triple leveraged...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 14, 2015, 02:22:10 PM
here is my trade of the day: purchased SDS at 20.46. SDS is an inverse leveraged ETF, so S&P 500 goes down 1%, i make 2%. S&P 500 has been trading between 1900 and 2100 for 2015, today it closed at 2099 so will ride this down into the 1900's and get out. then ill probably by SSO when i exit SDS, SSO does the opposite of SDS.

Might as well buy SPXS / SPXL.  It's triple leveraged for 50% more profit than the tickers mentioned above...

Well nothing is guaranteed so don't want to get too aggressive

Good thing you didn't buy the triple leveraged...

yeah i thought about that today. now i have to hold SDS for a couple more days.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 15, 2015, 09:44:03 AM
time to get some GMCR? near 1 year low.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 15, 2015, 10:06:49 AM
the keurig popularity seems to be fading doesnt it?  im not a coffee drinker, but from everything ive been reading in the news about these guys they seem to be losing their luster.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on May 15, 2015, 11:34:40 AM
time to get some GMCR? near 1 year low.

There might be a delay for GMCR release of the new Kold machine, which will be in competition with Soda Stream. Also, the rumor price of Kold machine is expected to be higher than Sodastream.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on May 15, 2015, 11:41:05 AM
the keurig popularity seems to be fading doesnt it?  im not a coffee drinker, but from everything ive been reading in the news about these guys they seem to be losing their luster.

Pissed off a lot of Keurig loyals when they came out with 2.0 and not backwards compatible unless you know how to hack a KCup
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on May 15, 2015, 03:13:20 PM
El pollo took a dive today. This might be a good small cap stock.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on May 15, 2015, 03:57:49 PM
MNGA had an interesting day.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 18, 2015, 01:29:14 PM
got some GMCR at $90. I set a limit to buy @ $90 and forgot all about it...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 18, 2015, 01:42:18 PM
got some GMCR at $90. I set a limit to buy @ $90 and forgot all about it...

good luck.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 18, 2015, 01:53:39 PM
good luck to you too; with S&P and Dow near all time highs, I am tempted to buy some SDS as well

got some GMCR at $90. I set a limit to buy @ $90 and forgot all about it...

good luck.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 18, 2015, 02:08:24 PM
good luck to you too; with S&P and Dow near all time highs, I am tempted to buy some SDS as well

got some GMCR at $90. I set a limit to buy @ $90 and forgot all about it...

good luck.

thanks. yeah im tempted to sell everything i hold right now, including PBR and then increase my SDS position. but that would be short term trade. then i would probably just sit out and wait for a decent pull back. while i think PBR will still go up by 12/31/15 to about 15, after the recent run up it is very tempting to just on the sidelines.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on May 18, 2015, 05:37:41 PM
I got out of PBR at a recent peak of 10 something.  Looking back, I should have played the highs and low game better believing that it was a stock that I would hold long. 

If I ever bought and got stuck on a downtrend, I'd average down and when the capital is gone, I'd ride it long as I initially intended.

A solid pick!  Will probably pick it up again after seeing it drop recently.


Anyone watching LOCO?  15% drop after failing to meet expectations last Friday.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 18, 2015, 05:45:56 PM
LOCO is on my watch list. If it drops to $20 than I am in.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on May 21, 2015, 10:41:53 AM
Looks like the CEO of lumber liquidators left the company.

it is called gambling. one or two of these 20+% drop stocks will bounce back, right? just need to hit it big once.

time to load up on Yelp, LinkedIn and LL. Buy whenever there is 20+% drop in stock price!

I don't know about LL. Isn't the DOJ seeking criminal charges? The CFO is or has resigned. Sounds like a mess.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on May 21, 2015, 10:44:08 AM
What's going on with SHAK?  PE ratio looks weird
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on May 21, 2015, 10:57:29 AM
WMT fell after earnings. Do you think they have legs to make a run up?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 21, 2015, 02:27:36 PM
SHAK's stock price is not weird, it is absurd.
Good short candidate?

"McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) has a market cap of around $95 billion and more than 36,000 stores around the world. Shake Shack’s $3 billion market cap is based on a total store count of 66 as of April 1. McDonald’s market cap is about 30 times larger than Shake Shack’s, but its store count is nearly 550 times higher"

http://247wallst.com/services/2015/05/21/why-shake-shack-needs-chicken-to-justify-3-billion-market-value/#ixzz3aoKLTFdl (http://247wallst.com/services/2015/05/21/why-shake-shack-needs-chicken-to-justify-3-billion-market-value/#ixzz3aoKLTFdl)

What's going on with SHAK?  PE ratio looks weird
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 21, 2015, 02:48:21 PM
i saw something on SHAK a week or two, basically saying similar to what TCCC just posted. that shit is going to come down to earth at some point, as soon as it misses a quarter it will tumble double digits.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 21, 2015, 02:51:22 PM
WMT fell after earnings. Do you think they have legs to make a run up?

WMT has been flat year of year  (may 14 to may 15). im not a fan of WMT, i would go with AMZN or TGT.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on May 21, 2015, 02:56:43 PM
Isn't WMT a good candidate for defensive stock near the end of a bull market? there may not be much capital gain but 2.5% dividend is not too shabby to park your gain from the bull market.

I plan to exit all my positions in the coming months, excluding utility (for the dividends) and energy stocks (prices are distressed). SDS is on my radar and will jump in if there is another 5% up in S&P.

I will start buying 30 year treasuries as soon as the yield is higher than my 30 year fixed mortgage rates :)

WMT fell after earnings. Do you think they have legs to make a run up?

WMT has been flat year of year  (may 14 to may 15). im not a fan of WMT, i would go with AMZN or TGT.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on May 27, 2015, 11:50:21 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/broadcom-in-talks-to-be-bought-by-avago-technologies-2015-5

Would this jeopardize their future Great Park HQ ?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 27, 2015, 12:05:06 PM
We had Shake Shack in Vegas... not really different than the Smash/5Guys/Mooyah places.

Tasty crinkle cut fries though.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 27, 2015, 01:46:06 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/broadcom-in-talks-to-be-bought-by-avago-technologies-2015-5

Would this jeopardize their future Great Park HQ ?

i doubt it, they still need all of those people to work somewhere.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on June 01, 2015, 09:16:59 PM
PBR offering 100 year bond at 8+% interest. Good investment for my great great grand kids?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ccc7230-0878-11e5-b38c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3bsJ2mKkx
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on June 05, 2015, 07:25:42 AM
Watch the bond. TNX TYX shooting up.  I think rate hike coming sooner then most think.

Lynchpin
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on June 08, 2015, 12:25:37 PM
Time to GTFO of stocks?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on June 08, 2015, 12:47:38 PM
Time to GTFO of stocks?

ive sold my beloved PBR position in the 9.30s. im very tempted to go back in. dont hold any stocks currently.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on June 08, 2015, 05:15:28 PM
Time to GTFO of stocks?

ive sold my beloved PBR position in the 9.30s. im very tempted to go back in. dont hold any stocks currently.

Did you hit your sell limit on TWTR?

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on June 08, 2015, 06:05:07 PM
Time to GTFO of stocks?

ive sold my beloved PBR position in the 9.30s. im very tempted to go back in. dont hold any stocks currently.

Did you hit your sell limit on TWTR?



no i sold it at loss at 36.99. im still tracking it though to see if it dips further to get back in. closed at 36.46 today
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on June 08, 2015, 08:40:06 PM
good to save .50 when dealing with that many shares!

What brokerage/software are you (you guys) using?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on June 08, 2015, 08:55:18 PM
I use TD Ameritrade.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on June 11, 2015, 10:32:43 PM
Buckle up buttercups

Big Jump in Interest Rates Confirms Upside Breakout

Interest rates on long-dated Treasury securities will likely head higher and rise even more in Germany.

Resistance was broken to the upside with Wednesday’s rise in yields after the European Central Bank praised the impact of its latest European stimulus program and a weaker-than-expected Institute for Supply Management services report here. The yield, up three straight days, has risen in six of the past eight trading days.

Reinforcing the move, a 16-month trendline was broken to the upside, too. There is no major resistance to stop this rally until the September 2014 high of 2.64%.

The selloff in bond prices and commensurate rise in interest rates is not limited to U.S. Treasuries. Corporate bonds as represented by the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (  LQD  ) show a sharper price break in April and move significant breakdown below support Wednesday. Municipal bonds represented by the iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (  MUB  ) sport a completed head-and-shoulders topping pattern.

http://online.barrons.com/articles/big-jump-in-interest-rates-confirms-upside-breakout-1433362443?mod=rss_barrons_most_emailed_day (http://online.barrons.com/articles/big-jump-in-interest-rates-confirms-upside-breakout-1433362443?mod=rss_barrons_most_emailed_day)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on June 13, 2015, 09:24:16 PM
What stocks are on everyones watch list?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on June 15, 2015, 09:45:06 AM
Greece on the brink of disaster?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on June 18, 2015, 10:16:59 AM
Fitbit started to trade today up $10. It's now $30.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on June 18, 2015, 02:03:01 PM
If there's a major shift in interest rates, now it's more like what stocks to short
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on June 18, 2015, 02:09:24 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 18, 2015, 02:37:23 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 18, 2015, 02:38:11 PM
Greece on the brink of disaster?
Doesn't really matter....any pullback on Greece should be used as a buying opportunity.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on June 18, 2015, 03:11:17 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.

Wait, ^VIX goes down in an up market right?  So if you sold naked calls, you're hoping for the ^VIX to dip which means you think the market is going higher?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 18, 2015, 03:14:33 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.

Wait, ^VIX goes down in an up market right?  So if you sold naked calls, you're hoping for the ^VIX to dip which means you think the market is going higher?

Yes, the VIX typically go down when the market is up and/or flat.  With me selling naked VIX calls, I'm hoping that the market doesn't tank, it doesn't have to go up...it can drift lower and I'll still make money.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on June 18, 2015, 03:32:38 PM
Ah ok got it.... I was flummoxed for a bit.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: toady13 on June 19, 2015, 12:00:22 AM
Anyone shorting Shanghai with FXP or YANG?


Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on June 19, 2015, 12:16:31 PM
short Airline stocks as MERS outbreak is bound to get worse?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on June 19, 2015, 12:41:38 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.

hmm.. seems like a good bet since VIX hasn't touched $30+ since 2011 or so .. how much "reserve" does the brokerage require you to have since technically your potential loss is unlimited ?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 19, 2015, 10:01:02 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.

hmm.. seems like a good bet since VIX hasn't touched $30+ since 2011 or so .. how much "reserve" does the brokerage require you to have since technically your potential loss is unlimited ?
Took up just a little over $125k in margin.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on June 20, 2015, 07:37:05 AM
What type of investor/traders are here?

swing? day? long term? mix of both?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 20, 2015, 04:58:03 PM
What type of investor/traders are here?

swing? day? long term? mix of both?
I'm definitely more of a short term trader...not really a day trader as I trade front month VIX options and front week VXX options.  Goal is income, not appreciation. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on June 21, 2015, 09:27:25 AM
What type of investor/traders are here?

swing? day? long term? mix of both?
I'm definitely more of a short term trader...not really a day trader as I trade front month VIX options and front week VXX options.  Goal is income, not appreciation.

BRB going to google VIX VXX  :P

It's fun talking with people to see their philosophy really come out. I was talking to one friend about taking profit in this volatile stock that he owns and then just buy the next gap down. But he said he doesn't want to wake up and miss the day it skyrockets.

Looking at some bio pharm firms, I can see why people stay in there day to day and don't scalp profits because there are days where it gaps up 40%

but like they say a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush or is two birds in the bush worth one in the hand?  >:D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on June 25, 2015, 08:55:22 AM
Believe your eyes not what you hear. (in the media)  The stock market (Dow) is flat, Interest rates are up (quite a bit)

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on June 26, 2015, 01:36:26 PM
China stock market is crashing?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on June 26, 2015, 02:13:52 PM
China stock market is crashing?

Looks like their bubble just bust. 

Anyone short China stocks?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: toady13 on June 26, 2015, 10:46:33 PM
China stock market is crashing?

Looks like their bubble just bust. 

Anyone short China stocks?

There are ETFs for that, I'm looking at FXP and YANG, but those 2x, 3x ultra short ETFs can burn you. Have to get in and out quickly. It's probably too much gambling for my liking.

My question is, if China's stock market is going to crash is it time to GTFO stocks like eyephone said?

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on June 27, 2015, 09:15:52 AM
My question is, if China's stock market is going to crash is it time to GTFO stocks like eyephone said?

Unlike other market, China's market is heavily manipulate by the government and it's going to be interesting to see how far China's central government willing to let the market slide and how much they can do to stop the slide.

So far the China's stock fall alone haven't affect US stock as much as Greek crisis or the Fed rat hike.  Maybe all these event happen together will create a perfect storm and its time to GTFO or buy short EFTs.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: B2FiNiTY on June 27, 2015, 11:17:55 AM
Looks like the china bubble is finally bursting. Will be interesting to see if we have any overflow in the row.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on June 29, 2015, 02:58:05 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.

Yikes these are now trading at .55c

This is the scary thing about selling naked options, unlimited losses. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 29, 2015, 05:38:30 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.

Yikes these are now trading at .55c

This is the scary thing about selling naked options, unlimited losses. 
I'm not too worried....VIX is under $18.  I do use stop losses in place.  My stop loss for this trade is .80.  I can also buy lower VIX calls or sell higher VIX puts, lot of ways to squeeze out profit. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on June 30, 2015, 06:35:22 AM
bought SDS (2 x bear) at $19.82 and sold all the shares at the end of market yesterday. was thinking buying SPXL (3 x bull) at the same time but hesitated. it looks like today is starting off with a small rally; perhaps buy more SDS?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on June 30, 2015, 07:28:53 AM
bought SDS (2 x bear) at $19.82 and sold all the shares at the end of market yesterday. was thinking buying SPXL (3 x bull) at the same time but hesitated. it looks like today is starting off with a small rally; perhaps buy more SDS?

I just bought sso (2 x bull) at 64.78. In the next couple of days I think there will be one of those 200 point rally days.  The Dow will go back up to 18k
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on June 30, 2015, 08:44:43 AM
bought SDS (2 x bear) at $19.82 and sold all the shares at the end of market yesterday. was thinking buying SPXL (3 x bull) at the same time but hesitated. it looks like today is starting off with a small rally; perhaps buy more SDS?

I just bought sso (2 x bull) at 64.78. In the next couple of days I think there will be one of those 200 point rally days.  The Dow will go back up to 18k

Who knows? It's all a crap shoot.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on June 30, 2015, 10:11:35 AM
got some SSO @ $64.3. Let's see if Quffet is right again
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on June 30, 2015, 10:26:53 AM
got some SSO @ $64.3. Let's see if Quffet is right again

remember, like i tell myself every night before i go to sleep and when i wake up. In Qwerty we trust :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on June 30, 2015, 11:14:12 AM
got some SSO @ $64.3. Let's see if Quffet is right again

SSO @ 65.24, made you 94 cents per share already :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on June 30, 2015, 12:21:21 PM
ok so after sitting out a while on individual stocks im back in today on three stocks. FCX @ 18.76, NBR @ 14.40 and PBR @ 9.06

looking to keep them short term, one to two weeks or sooner if they hit my targets.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on June 30, 2015, 03:23:18 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.

Yikes these are now trading at .55c

This is the scary thing about selling naked options, unlimited losses. 
See, market up a little with slight dip in VIX those options are back down to $0.40.  Trading these VIX/VXX naked options are not for the faint of heart or wallet.  haha
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 05, 2015, 07:53:28 PM
Oil is down 3% - if it's still down tomorrow morning going to buy more pbr and nbr. Let the fun begin.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on July 06, 2015, 06:42:18 AM
Oil is down 3% - if it's still down tomorrow morning going to buy more pbr and nbr. Let the fun begin.

NBR briefly down under $13, it's going to be a fun day.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 06, 2015, 07:58:38 AM
Picked up nbr at 12.93 and pbr at 8.20

Not sure why but the wildest swings seem to ways happen in the first half to an hour of trading.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 06, 2015, 08:14:51 AM
Like I said,  this market is a traders dream and investors nightmare.  For all the hoopla the Dow is down .75% year to date...yawn.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on July 06, 2015, 08:17:12 AM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.

Yikes these are now trading at .55c

This is the scary thing about selling naked options, unlimited losses. 
See, market up a little with slight dip in VIX those options are back down to $0.40.  Trading these VIX/VXX naked options are not for the faint of heart or wallet.  haha

Ya, in terms of % changes these are a wild ride for sure.  I'll leave these to you RE moguls :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on July 06, 2015, 09:28:29 AM
loaded some NBR at $13 and FCX @ $17.6

In Qwerty I trust
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 06, 2015, 07:09:05 PM
USC do you sell naked calls in a down market?
Yup, sold 300 $30 VIX July calls for $.40 around 10am.

Yikes these are now trading at .55c

This is the scary thing about selling naked options, unlimited losses. 
See, market up a little with slight dip in VIX those options are back down to $0.40.  Trading these VIX/VXX naked options are not for the faint of heart or wallet.  haha

Ya, in terms of % changes these are a wild ride for sure.  I'll leave these to you RE moguls :)
Besides not being for the paint of wallet, trading naked VIX/VXX calls is not for the faint of heart either.  Expect to take 5 figure hits here and there, but just make sure you've collected enough premium to be able to absorb those loses. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on July 07, 2015, 08:53:32 AM
FCX 7% drop today...while Grexit grabs most headlines, I think China is a bigger risk...

probably will load up some SSO at the end of today, and see if there's a dead cat bounce tomorrow

loaded some NBR at $13 and FCX @ $17.6

In Qwerty I trust
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 07, 2015, 11:44:17 AM
Looks like oil is getting close to the $40 handle.  If it gets into the mid $40s that might have a negative impact on the market. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on July 07, 2015, 01:25:14 PM
wild day at the market today; 300 points swing! was Qwerty busying trading and making his money? have not seen him posted much during the trading hours.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 07, 2015, 02:17:07 PM
wild day at the market today; 300 points swing! was Qwerty busying trading and making his money? have not seen him posted much during the trading hours.

i did buy some SSO this morning in my account and inlaws account. when the dow was down about 130. i was expecting the rebound tomorrow or later this week, not today. oil was just as crazy. did load up on some more NBR in the 12.80s as well. Im holding off on more PBR though (thought looks like that was bad move to hold off).
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on July 07, 2015, 03:17:04 PM
which is a better gamble? AMD (banking on it will be acquired or spin off graphic card business) or Chinese stock mutual fund index following the recent plunge?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: toady13 on July 07, 2015, 04:31:07 PM
I'm wondering if one could buy equal volume puts on both ultra bear and bull ETFs since over time there is a theoretical decay in the price.

For example, ytd on SSO is +2.46% and ytd SDS is -6.39% for a net of -3.93%

Another example: ytd on YINN is -7.47% and ytd YANG -23.46%

If you buy equal volumes of puts, wouldn't you end up ahead over time? 

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on July 07, 2015, 05:09:22 PM
I'm wondering if one could buy equal volume puts on both ultra bear and bull ETFs since over time there is a theoretical decay in the price.

For example, ytd on SSO is +2.46% and ytd SDS is -6.39% for a net of -3.93%

Another example: ytd on YINN is -7.47% and ytd YANG -23.46%

If you buy equal volumes of puts, wouldn't you end up ahead over time?

Not necessarily .. in an up and down swinging market.. yes.  But if the market moves consistently up or down in a slow manner.. you will lose because of the compounding (opposite of decay) if it moves in one direction.   If you did this Jan 2-Dec 31, 2013, you lost about 20% spread:

SSO price: Jan 2 close 63.29, Dec 31 close 102.56  (+62%)
SDS price: Jan 2 close 51.40, Dec 31 close 29.66 (-42%)

Also if you are short/put, maximum gain is 100% (stock goes to 0), maximum loss is infinite.  So in a strong bull or bear market, one ETF can double or triple in price while the other one would just get lower and lower but you won't gain more than 100% on that one if you are short/put.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on July 07, 2015, 05:14:09 PM
.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: toady13 on July 07, 2015, 05:28:56 PM
I'm wondering if one could buy equal volume puts on both ultra bear and bull ETFs since over time there is a theoretical decay in the price.

For example, ytd on SSO is +2.46% and ytd SDS is -6.39% for a net of -3.93%

Another example: ytd on YINN is -7.47% and ytd YANG -23.46%

If you buy equal volumes of puts, wouldn't you end up ahead over time?

Not necessarily .. in an up and down swinging market.. yes.  But if the market moves consistently up or down in a slow manner.. you will lose because of the compounding (opposite of decay) if it moves in one direction.   If you did this Jan 2-Dec 31, 2013, you lost about 20% spread:

SSO price: Jan 2 close 63.29, Dec 31 close 102.56  (+62%)
SDS price: Jan 2 close 51.40, Dec 31 close 29.66 (-42%)

Also if you are short/put, maximum gain is 100% (stock goes to 0), maximum loss is infinite.  So in a strong bull or bear market, one ETF can double or triple in price while the other one would just get lower and lower but you won't gain more than 100% on that one if you are short/put.


I see. Thanks.

Regarding the max loss, I believe it could be infinite if you're shorting the stock, but if you're buying puts then the max loss is the price paid for the put.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on July 07, 2015, 05:35:29 PM
I'm wondering if one could buy equal volume puts on both ultra bear and bull ETFs since over time there is a theoretical decay in the price.

For example, ytd on SSO is +2.46% and ytd SDS is -6.39% for a net of -3.93%

Another example: ytd on YINN is -7.47% and ytd YANG -23.46%

If you buy equal volumes of puts, wouldn't you end up ahead over time?

Not necessarily .. in an up and down swinging market.. yes.  But if the market moves consistently up or down in a slow manner.. you will lose because of the compounding (opposite of decay) if it moves in one direction.   If you did this Jan 2-Dec 31, 2013, you lost about 20% spread:

SSO price: Jan 2 close 63.29, Dec 31 close 102.56  (+62%)
SDS price: Jan 2 close 51.40, Dec 31 close 29.66 (-42%)

Also if you are short/put, maximum gain is 100% (stock goes to 0), maximum loss is infinite.  So in a strong bull or bear market, one ETF can double or triple in price while the other one would just get lower and lower but you won't gain more than 100% on that one if you are short/put.


I see. Thanks.

Regarding the max loss, I believe it could be infinite if you're shorting the stock, but if you're buying puts then the max loss is the price paid for the put.

If you buy put option, you would have to pay time premium, so it also has a "decay" factor the longer you hold that would probably cancel out the decay in the ETF price :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: B2FiNiTY on July 07, 2015, 05:51:05 PM
Closed out my position of YANG a little too early. Profits are profits... can't complain too much.

Shopping for deals in this environment.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 08, 2015, 10:49:27 AM
Trading haulted at NYSE. Waiting to get back open.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on July 08, 2015, 11:05:52 AM
I anticipate once NYSE re-opens, there will be a flash/panic sale and if you time it right it will rebound nicely and make some $$
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: toady13 on July 08, 2015, 11:41:54 AM
Imagine being a highly leveraged individual investor in China rn.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 08, 2015, 12:43:51 PM
This is the beginning of Skynet. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 08, 2015, 12:51:14 PM
On August 29th 2:14AM Skynet will become self aware.  refer to the Zombie Apocalypse thread for survival tips.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DQsG3TKQ0I (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DQsG3TKQ0I)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 08, 2015, 01:10:22 PM
On August 29th 2:14PM Skynet will become self aware.  refer to the Zombie Apocalypse thread for survival tips.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DQsG3TKQ0I (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DQsG3TKQ0I)
Only 18 years too late, but still...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 14, 2015, 09:46:08 AM
Fake bloomberg report - twitter shares spike.

http://www.ft.com/intl/fastft/359871/post-359871
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 14, 2015, 05:39:55 PM
got some SSO @ $64.3. Let's see if Quffet is right again

TCCC - how's that SSO working out for u? $67.48 today. I got rid of it today. Will buy again on the next dip
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 14, 2015, 05:42:07 PM
loaded some NBR at $13 and FCX @ $17.6

In Qwerty I trust

Nbr at 13.81, fix closed at 17.11, that will be back at 19-20 soon. good luck.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on July 14, 2015, 05:42:55 PM
I sold early during the rally so not much profit. Looking to load up some SDS as the stock market is near all time high.
got some SSO @ $64.3. Let's see if Quffet is right again

TCCC - how's that SSO working out for u? $67.48 today. I got rid of it today. Will buy again on the next dip
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 16, 2015, 02:18:42 PM
What are your thoughts on Paypal Holdings? PayPal will trade separately on July 20
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 21, 2015, 03:26:03 PM
Apple took a beating after hours.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 21, 2015, 05:54:03 PM
Time to buy AAPL.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 21, 2015, 06:19:50 PM
Warren Buffet lost $700 mil approximately today due to IBM according to the article.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/21/buffett-loses-about-700m-on-ibm.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 21, 2015, 06:25:52 PM
Time to buy AAPL.

Maybe. Wait and see.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on July 21, 2015, 08:08:04 PM
Time to buy AAPL.

Maybe. Wait and see.

Just set a buy limit ($110).  I have a feeling it's gonna get emotional at opening bell and we may see some big dips before closing bell
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on July 22, 2015, 10:24:59 AM
Qwerty you still holding PBR?  I am still sitting on the 5200 shares wondering why I didn't sell a couple months ago.  Sigh.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on July 22, 2015, 10:39:52 AM
After all the books I've read on trading and all the methods I've tried, the best (not to mention safest and easiest) seems to be just dollar cost averaging into the S&P500 every month. 

There's always the exception to this but I bet it's 5% or less of traders that can actively trade and beat the S&P in the long term. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 22, 2015, 10:42:47 AM
Qwerty you still holding PBR?  I am still sitting on the 5200 shares wondering why I didn't sell a couple months ago.  Sigh.

yeah but my stake is much lower now, sold all and got back in recently at a lower price than i sold, 4000 shares. so i am giving back some profits but locked in a good chunk since i was at about 18000 shares. im losing some on NBR as well but also got back in at lower than i sold. dont worry man, just hold on to it, oil will be back up.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on July 22, 2015, 10:48:14 AM
After all the books I've read on trading and all the methods I've tried, the best (not to mention safest and easiest) seems to be just dollar cost averaging into the S&P500 every month. 

There's always the exception to this but I bet it's 5% or less of traders that can actively trade and beat the S&P in the long term.
Including options trading? 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: rkp on July 22, 2015, 10:51:22 AM
Qwerty you still holding PBR?  I am still sitting on the 5200 shares wondering why I didn't sell a couple months ago.  Sigh.

yeah but my stake is much lower now, sold all and got back in recently at a lower price than i sold, 4000 shares. so i am giving back some profits but locked in a good chunk since i was at about 18000 shares. im losing some on NBR as well but also got back in at lower than i sold. dont worry man, just hold on to it, oil will be back up.

doh missed when you sold...remember i follow you...so please broadcast all moves :p
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 22, 2015, 11:01:57 AM
Qwerty you still holding PBR?  I am still sitting on the 5200 shares wondering why I didn't sell a couple months ago.  Sigh.

yeah but my stake is much lower now, sold all and got back in recently at a lower price than i sold, 4000 shares. so i am giving back some profits but locked in a good chunk since i was at about 18000 shares. im losing some on NBR as well but also got back in at lower than i sold. dont worry man, just hold on to it, oil will be back up.

doh missed when you sold...remember i follow you...so please broadcast all moves :p

you got it man. well we will ride this one out together :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 22, 2015, 11:14:36 AM
In general, oil is a good long term play.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on July 22, 2015, 02:54:23 PM
Dividends on oil tends to be nice too
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on July 22, 2015, 03:20:58 PM
In general, oil is a good long term play.

Sometimes. 

I bought CVX in my IRA for $98 in early 2011.  That hasn't worked out so well.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 22, 2015, 03:22:59 PM
In general, oil is a good long term play.

Sometimes. 

I bought CVX in my IRA for $98 in early 2011.  That hasn't worked out so well.

It's a Long term play.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 22, 2015, 03:45:32 PM
In general, oil is a good long term play.

Sometimes. 

I bought CVX in my IRA for $98 in early 2011.  That hasn't worked out so well.

Well you could have gotten out at over 135 per share :-)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 22, 2015, 03:48:01 PM
In general, oil is a good long term play.

Sometimes. 

I bought CVX in my IRA for $98 in early 2011.  That hasn't worked out so well.

Well you could have gotten out at over 135 per share :-)

Yup- bears makes money, bulls makes money and pigs get slaughtered. Hehe

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on July 23, 2015, 10:19:13 AM
Back in PBR at $6.86 .. I stopped tracking PBR out of regret after I sold all in the high $8 and saw it move up past $10.  Didn't realized its now back below $7..

In qwerty we trust :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 23, 2015, 10:28:48 AM
Back in PBR at $6.86 .. I stopped tracking PBR out of regret after I sold all in the high $8 and saw it move up past $10.  Didn't realized its now back below $7..

In qwerty we trust :)

Yeah I am going to start accumulating more in the next several days to get to 10,000 shares. Downside is pretty limited I would think. Probably a floor of 6?  Going to double down on nbr as well.

FCx is getting slaughtered today. Started a position with 500 shares a couple of weeks ago at 18.75 and was going to buy a couple of thousand shares and got sidetracked with work so never bought more. Glad I didn't.  Down like 2500 on Just 500 shares. Could have been a lot worse.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on July 23, 2015, 10:42:37 AM
Back in PBR at $6.86 .. I stopped tracking PBR out of regret after I sold all in the high $8 and saw it move up past $10.  Didn't realized its now back below $7..

In qwerty we trust :)

Yeah I am going to start accumulating more in the next several days to get to 10,000 shares. Downside is pretty limited I would think. Probably a floor of 6?  Going to double down on nbr as well.

FCx is getting slaughtered today. Started a position with 500 shares a couple of weeks ago at 18.75 and was going to buy a couple of thousand shares and got sidetracked with work so never bought more. Glad I didn't.  Down like 2500 on Just 500 shares. Could have been a lot worse.

Also, got a few VALE and FCX just now .. Both are probably near their 10+ yr lows ...   good luck to all of us :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 23, 2015, 01:20:56 PM
Amazon up around $66 after hours.

Thanks to prime day?

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on July 23, 2015, 01:25:12 PM
Amazon up around $66 after hours.

Thanks to prime day?

I was very close to buying AMZN today for earning play... crap .. well... maybe next time.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on July 23, 2015, 01:38:52 PM
There's big $ behind Amazon and seems for most of the earning plays someone props it up if it starts falling.   Would have bought as well just forgot...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on July 23, 2015, 01:43:24 PM

Well, I have been thinking the market goes up on the days that the 401K money comes in.  Most of the times there is a delay for the 401K trades to go in in comparison to the pay day though. 

Oops ya sorry that's what I meant that because all the 401k $ is going in (on payday) that the market rises.

Tomorrow is payday.  Time to test the theory again. 

At the time of this post, I can buy QQQ Apr 24 calls ($109 strike) for .24 ask price.  We'll see what they end at tomorrow.

Did you buy the call ?  that's an easy 6-bagger.. It closed around $1.50

Nope, just testing the theory - but seriously, 8 of my last 10 paydays have the same result.  I think starting next month I'll be putting my $ where my mouth is on QQQ calls the Thursday before payday.

Payday is tomorrow for me so trying this again.  Got some QQQ $113 calls for .21c (tomorrow expiry).  Looks like a good omen though with AMZN results after hours.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Coleman on July 23, 2015, 04:18:24 PM
What is the process of stock selecting for you guys?  (besides the obvious do what QWERTY does)

Anyone besides USCTROJAN, trade for income?  QWERTY - do you count your trades as income as I know you are more of an in and out trading kind of guy?

Maybe QWERTY should start a thread about how to invest/trade where people can go to seek advice, post charts, post informative videos all while this thread is about the daily movement of the DOW.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 24, 2015, 12:41:31 PM
Just picked 1000 shares of sso 65.58. Gonna ride this baby back up to 18000
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on July 24, 2015, 12:45:43 PM
Just picked 1000 shares of sso 65.58. Gonna ride this baby back up to 18000

nice :)  I'm very tempted to double down on PBR and FCX .. bloodbath on almost all commodities stocks the last few days ..
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 24, 2015, 12:49:45 PM
On fcx, I did pick up an extra 500 today so now at 1000. At this price should probably pick up some more but I'll see how Monday goes.  The news from China is killing all the commodities.  Crazy.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on July 28, 2015, 11:28:57 AM
Back in PBR at $6.86 .. I stopped tracking PBR out of regret after I sold all in the high $8 and saw it move up past $10.  Didn't realized its now back below $7..

In qwerty we trust :)

Yeah I am going to start accumulating more in the next several days to get to 10,000 shares. Downside is pretty limited I would think. Probably a floor of 6?  Going to double down on nbr as well.

FCx is getting slaughtered today. Started a position with 500 shares a couple of weeks ago at 18.75 and was going to buy a couple of thousand shares and got sidetracked with work so never bought more. Glad I didn't.  Down like 2500 on Just 500 shares. Could have been a lot worse.

Also, got a few VALE and FCX just now .. Both are probably near their 10+ yr lows ...   good luck to all of us :)

After commodities getting battered the last few days, FCX up 10%+, PBR up 5%+, VALE +8% ..  who needs casino :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 28, 2015, 11:59:28 AM
Great timing on thAt GH. Let's hope the rise contibues
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on July 28, 2015, 12:16:13 PM
Great timing on thAt GH. Let's hope the rise contibues

not really.. I'm still negative overall on PBR, about breakeven in FCX and slightly up on VALE .. I'm getting hooked to this casino .. hahahaha
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Tarmacpro on July 28, 2015, 01:25:33 PM
Fairly big selloff after BIIB earnings released last week.  What do you guys think after today's GILD earnings?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 31, 2015, 07:14:22 AM
Buy linkedin?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on July 31, 2015, 06:38:13 PM
Great timing on thAt GH. Let's hope the rise contibues

not really.. I'm still negative overall on PBR, about breakeven in FCX and slightly up on VALE .. I'm getting hooked to this casino .. hahahaha

The casino is no lie.  If you think trading stocks is addicting, try trading options.  haha
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on July 31, 2015, 09:02:01 PM
Trying to look into options cuz it just sounds so cool.
Straddle, strangle, iron condor, jade lizard, etc
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on July 31, 2015, 09:12:27 PM
Trying to look into options cuz it just sounds so cool.
Straddle, strangle, iron condor, jade lizard, etc

Reverse cowgirl
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 31, 2015, 09:31:26 PM
Take a look at Biotech stocks/etfs if you haven't already.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 04, 2015, 10:13:26 AM
Taking a beating on AAPL, luckily my NFLX is making the blow softer.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: HMart on August 04, 2015, 01:10:52 PM
Irvine's biggest private employer (Blizzard)'s earnings call right now: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/activision-blizzard-announces-better-expected-200500630.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 06, 2015, 01:04:52 PM
Which would you buy:  DIS, GILD, or TSLA?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 06, 2015, 01:44:59 PM
DIS!!!

Star Wars 7!!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Bullsback on August 06, 2015, 02:27:20 PM
I just picked up DIS (some yesterday and a little more today).  Think their is a good long term value and this is a nice dip to get back in. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 06, 2015, 03:01:01 PM
TSLA down 8.88% today. 

Super Lucky Buying Power Opportunity Most High Don't Getting Priced Out!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 06, 2015, 03:25:44 PM
If DIS drops again tomorrow am, I might get in
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 09, 2015, 09:36:23 AM
The Market fear is a September rate hike.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Goriot on August 11, 2015, 02:35:47 PM
The Market fear is a September rate hike.

No one talking about the RMB 2% devaluation adjustment today? It just made U.S. real estate that much more expensive to foreigners.  I think possibility of September rate hike pretty much gone.  Major slow down in China based on latest auto sales plummeting double digits and Macao casino revenue falling 1/3, etc.  Commodity prices further down creating low inflationary pressure.  I think we are close to residential real estate peak in OC for the near term (2-3 yrs)?  Who's calling it?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 11, 2015, 03:14:14 PM


In an email I sent to clients dated 11/20/2008 I warned to never “bet against this man”.  At the time Buffet was being lambasted in the press as “out of touch”. He had just penned an op-ed in the New York Times entitled
“Buy America. I Am”.  The Dow Jones stood at 8045.  Most thought him crazy, I DID NOT!  His company, Berkshire Hathaway, had just made its biggest acquisition to date of Burlington Northern Railroad. At a time when most were panicking and selling assets Bufett was BUYING.  Re-read his op ed below…

 

Op-Ed Contributor

Buy American. I Am.

By WARREN E. BUFFETT

Published: October 16, 2008

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=4&
 (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=4&)
 
The Dow Jones went from 8,049 to 18,000

Now I see these headlines again…

 

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway to buy Precision Castparts Corp. in biggest deal

  Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced it is acquiring aerospace and energy industry parts maker Precision Castparts Corp. in its biggest deal ever.

The $37.2 billion deal will see Berkshire Hathaway acquire all outstanding shares in Portland, Ore.-based Precision Castparts for $235 per share in cash.

 If completed, the deal will surpass Berkshire Hathaway's acquisition of the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad for about $27 billion in 2009. Precision Castparts makes aerospace engine parts and aircraft doors, parts for industrial gas turbines, as well as medical prosthetics.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/08/09/report-buffett-set-seal-largest-deal/31387791/

 ...and...

WARREN BUFFETT: Stocks are going 'a lot higher'

 


·            Aug. 10, 2015, 7:46 AM


·           

·         Warren Buffett will not let a little bit of volatility scare him out of the stock market.

·         "Stocks are going to be higher," Buffett told CNBC's Becky Quick on Monday.

·         Quick asked the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway whether he was concerned about the big price swings made by various stocks during second-quarter earnings season.

·         Buffett reiterated that he was a long-term investor, saying he expected prices to be "a lot higher" 10 years or 20 years from now.

·         He likened owning stocks to owning a home, saying that if homeowners expected prices to fall 5%, they wouldn't sell their homes in hopes to buy it back for 5% less. They are locked in for the long haul.

 ·         This is one of Warren Buffett's classic investing philosophies. Even amid the stock-market crash during the global financial crisis, Buffett continued to endorse stocks very vocally. From an October 2008 op-ed article in The New York Times:

·         Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-stocks-are-going-a-lot-higher-2015-8

 
Look and learn…what do you think is likely to happen?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 11, 2015, 04:03:38 PM
If the market soars higher so will real estate.  Beacon Park opening day prices will look like a bargain a year from now :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 11, 2015, 04:16:46 PM
If the market soars higher so will real estate.  Beacon Park opening day prices will look like a bargain a year from now :)

If that happens, I think other communities will look more of a bargain than BP.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on August 11, 2015, 07:42:53 PM
China Roils Markets Second Day as Yuan Cut by 1.6% (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/asian-futures-tip-another-down-day-as-yuan-move-rattles-markets)

Quote
China’s currency tumbled for a second day, sending Asian stocks and commodities lower amid concern that financial-market volatility in the world’s second-largest economy will curb global growth. Bonds and the dollar rallied.
The yuan dropped 1.4 percent in domestic trading by 10:13 a.m. in Hong Kong, after the People’s Bank of China set its reference rate 1.6 percent lower at 6.3306 per dollar.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 12, 2015, 07:14:26 AM
Ouch, there goes my down payment
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on August 12, 2015, 07:45:47 AM
Time to buy AAPL.

Maybe. Wait and see.

Just set a buy limit ($110).  I have a feeling it's gonna get emotional at opening bell and we may see some big dips before closing bell


AAPL dropped below $111 and heading toward $110. 

Time to get in.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 12, 2015, 08:06:17 AM
401k loan was not a bad idea after all
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 12, 2015, 08:09:07 AM
every time I see this I want to pull my $ out and sit on the sidelines but timing the re-entry point is so difficult. 

I did this after a week or 2 of losses in  early 2014 and waited for a re-entry point for months then finally just said 'screw it' and bought back in on some random day.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 12, 2015, 08:36:02 AM
Time to buy AAPL.


Maybe. Wait and see.

Just set a buy limit ($110).  I have a feeling it's gonna get emotional at opening bell and we may see some big dips before closing bell


AAPL dropped below $111 and heading toward $110. 

Time to get in.

$109!  Doh, missed it, got back in at $115 yesterday
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: WillJoy on August 12, 2015, 04:44:23 PM
Ouch, there goes my down payment

The title of this thread should be Doh!, not Dow.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on August 12, 2015, 09:06:16 PM

Just set a buy limit ($110).  I have a feeling it's gonna get emotional at opening bell and we may see some big dips before closing bell
AAPL dropped below $111 and heading toward $110. 

Time to get in.
$109!  Doh, missed it, got back in at $115 yesterday

What happen man!

When I saw your AAPL $110 limit buy order few week back, I thought it was just a wishfully thinking and don't think it could drop that low.

When AAPL rush toward $110 this morning, I was thinking that PS9's a genius.  Who needs Qwerty when we got a new stock market prodigy. :)


Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 14, 2015, 10:10:27 AM
Solar city near 52 week low. (Buy or not?)

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 17, 2015, 08:59:37 AM
Today's debate, get rid of stocks and hide?  Or continue the course?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 17, 2015, 09:44:29 AM
Again, this is a traders dream but investors frustrating nightmare. For all the hoopla the Dow is down 1.7% and the S and P is up 1.9% year to date...so what?  This is a nice intermediate term basing pattern and when it breaks out....it will be off to the races.  This is a classic positioning market.  Buy opportunistically and be patient, you will do well over time.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 20, 2015, 08:50:09 AM
If you have extra cash. Buy on the big dip like today.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 20, 2015, 08:54:25 AM
What if it's a 3 day dip?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 20, 2015, 09:00:31 AM
What if it's a 3 day dip?

Then buy on the 3rd day instead.... :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 20, 2015, 09:34:11 AM
What if it's a 3 day dip?

Then buy on the 3rd day instead.... :)

Isn't tomorrow one of your 401k days?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 20, 2015, 09:50:38 AM
What if it's a 3 day dip?

Then buy on the 3rd day instead.... :)

Isn't tomorrow one of your 401k days?

Ya, good memory.  That theory didn't pan out last month but I'm keeping track and if I get long term data that suggests over 50% of the days are upshots, it's worth playing.

Of course in the end this could all be considered roulette and not market manipulation by unknown forces.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 20, 2015, 12:59:23 PM
That was a thorough clobbering, only bright spot on my list was lumber liquidators
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 20, 2015, 01:20:25 PM
Which would you buy:  DIS, GILD, or TSLA?

Btw Did you buy Disney?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on August 20, 2015, 01:56:27 PM
Which would you buy:  DIS, GILD, or TSLA?

Btw Did you buy Disney?

butting in.. but I'm looking to add on to Disney in the 90s.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 20, 2015, 02:58:31 PM
So I guess your buy in is tomorrow then? :)

@eyephone, nope did not buy DIS at $106, gonna wait a little bit more
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on August 20, 2015, 03:01:37 PM
Which would you buy:  DIS, GILD, or TSLA?

Btw Did you buy Disney?

butting in.. but I'm looking to add on to Disney in the 90s.

Buying Disney and Apple on my kid's custodial account .. If it makes money, she can use the earning to buy their stuff.  If it does not, she will know why she has less money and would probably boycott both products  :P
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 20, 2015, 03:23:06 PM
Added more netflix
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 20, 2015, 03:24:18 PM
DIS below 100 after hours.  Set your limits tomorrow.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Goriot on August 20, 2015, 10:33:48 PM
Shanghai Index down another 4%.  Getting Ugly in China.  Dow Futures not looking too pretty.  Will be ugly in the opening hour tomorrow morning.  Probably bounce back a little in the later half of day.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 21, 2015, 07:10:33 AM
Disney low $96, did you get some J$? 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 21, 2015, 08:32:27 AM
Disney low $96, did you get some J$? 

All morning long
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on August 21, 2015, 10:34:15 AM
I'm getting worked on sso/nbr/pbr :-(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 21, 2015, 10:35:57 AM
Why you guys going long?  This is just the beginning of the overdue correction.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on August 21, 2015, 10:37:17 AM
Why you guys going long?  This is just the beginning of the overdue correction.

So what do u think it corrects at? The actual definition? 10% down?

There is no where else to put money. Once the fear subsides in a week or two, the steady climb will start back to 18k
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 21, 2015, 10:58:21 AM
Why you guys going long?  This is just the beginning of the overdue correction.

this happens every august...you can set your watch by it
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: toady13 on August 21, 2015, 11:09:59 AM
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

But I hope you're right.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 21, 2015, 11:17:28 AM
Beware the ides of August?  I wrote about this phenomena four years ago when I noticed that each August the markets lose their collective minds but then come back to reality just a month or two later.  This August seems  to be no different.  For all the hoopla and doom and gloom The Dow Jones is only down 6% year to date, about where it was a year ago,  the S and P 500 is down 2.4% year to date while the Over The counter Market (OTC) is actually still UP 1% this year.  Not to be totally devoid of feelings but, SO WHAT?   As I have repeatedly said, until the fed moves on rates we will trade in a sideways basing pattern. Frustrating for investors but a total dream for traders.  Look at that chart and notice the August pattern, pretty amazing, isn’t it?  This is just another opportunity to take advantage of the weak.  Put on the blinders
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 21, 2015, 11:19:39 AM
Why you guys going long?  This is just the beginning of the overdue correction.

So what do u think it corrects at? The actual definition? 10% down?

There is no where else to put money. Once the fear subsides in a week or two, the steady climb will start back to 18k

Arbitrary definition I suppose and certainly I don't know what the bottom is or I'd be on the Newport Coast forums instead :)

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 21, 2015, 02:05:27 PM
Afterhours show some buybacks, hopefully we're reversing course Monday.  Needing this tonight:

(https://www.tums.com/content/dam/NA_Pharma/Country/US/Brands/Tums/Digital/Web/Images/tums_products/tums-product-regular.png)

Going with my gut next time:  should've sold it all on Monday and buy it back today.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Bullsback on August 21, 2015, 02:07:52 PM
Afterhours show some buybacks, hopefully we're reversing course Monday.  Needing this tonight:

(https://www.tums.com/content/dam/NA_Pharma/Country/US/Brands/Tums/Digital/Web/Images/tums_products/tums-product-regular.png)

Going with my gut next time:  should've sold it all on Monday and buy it back today.
Just DCA and go long (presuming it is retirement / other longer term savings vs. immediate / emergency funds).  Lot less nerve wracking and hard to beat the S&P long-term (although you obviously have some volatility in their). Add in some international or other types of index funds if you want some additional diversification, but S&P really provides it anyway since you are talking a ton of global companies anyway.   
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 21, 2015, 02:12:25 PM
Boy, I'm glad that the VIX expired on Wednesday pre-open.   ;D   Gonna watch things for a bit before I jump in again.   >:D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 21, 2015, 02:14:05 PM
Boy, I'm glad that the VIX expired on Wednesday pre-open.   ;D   Gonna watch things for a bit before I jump in again.   >:D

Ya, good timing!  I was thinking about that today.  Some of the QQQ puts ended up like 40x yesterdays closing value...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 21, 2015, 02:58:56 PM
I love this market!!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Goriot on August 21, 2015, 03:55:07 PM
Finally long awaited correction is here.  This is just a start.  I want to see more FEAR, PANIC, BEARS and CAPITULATION before I jump in and pick up things on Sale~  good good.  Saw little bit at end of the day today.  But, still too much optimism.

Commodity dump for the past several months was a leading indicator for an equity to get slammed eventually.  Typical.  But the question is = is the commodity price slump related to little blimp during a recovery or a indicator for a down turn.  Probably indicator for a downturn in a global economy (excl. U.S.) but the U.S. economy is little questionable as we are supposed to be on the recovery phase.  We'll see.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 23, 2015, 04:12:46 PM
If you have spare time right now, you should watch market in turmoil on cnbc.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 23, 2015, 05:29:24 PM
Timeline of previous Asian crisis in 1997. Is history going to repeat itself?

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/crash/etc/cron.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on August 23, 2015, 07:51:32 PM
All Asia's stock index are down significantly.

DOW future are down more than -300.

Tomorrow's going to be interesting. >:D

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Goriot on August 23, 2015, 10:29:40 PM
All Asia's stock index are down significantly.

DOW future are down more than -300.

Tomorrow's going to be interesting. >:D

Shanghai Index slammed by 9%!!  Dow Futures Now Down 490pt!! oh wow.  Some fear in the market now.  Tomorrow definitely will be very interesting and volatile especially in the opening hours.  Bye bye Fed hike in Sep.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on August 23, 2015, 10:43:27 PM
So what is it now, about 40% down from the peak? 
Good thing no ones 401k even touches that index...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 24, 2015, 01:14:07 AM
China stocks suffer biggest lost since financial crisis. Shanghai worst day since 2007.

#goodluck
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 24, 2015, 06:35:30 AM
Market just opened Dow down around 1,000.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 24, 2015, 06:45:17 AM
Considering how high the Dow has been flying this last year, is this just a correction?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 24, 2015, 06:49:32 AM
Sure just a correction, that's what I keep telling myself.  88% cash position, when do I jump back in?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 24, 2015, 07:00:57 AM
Never mind, I'll stick to the nickel slots :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 24, 2015, 07:25:43 AM
Sure just a correction, that's what I keep telling myself.  88% cash position, when do I jump back in?
Buy low... sell high.

:) :) :) :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 24, 2015, 07:57:32 AM
Oddly enough this is somewhat a sigh of relief.  Everyone knew this correction was coming - just let it do it's thing and work itself out and we can get back on track.  Sure, it may take some time to get back to the levels of 2 weeks ago, but just keep dollar cost averaging during the correction and you'll be fine in  the long run. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 24, 2015, 08:18:49 AM
Oddly enough this is somewhat a sigh of relief.  Everyone knew this correction was coming - just let it do it's thing and work itself out and we can get back on track.  Sure, it may take some time to get back to the levels of 2 weeks ago, but just keep dollar cost averaging during the correction and you'll be fine in  the long run.

Good thing I'm not retiring soon. This Chinese crash ain't no joke.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 24, 2015, 08:24:19 AM
I suppose if China wants to cash in all the US debt they bought, then the world economy will collapse. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on August 24, 2015, 08:25:53 AM
I suppose if China wants to cash in all the US debt they bought, then the world economy will collapse.

Dont think they can just do that right
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on August 24, 2015, 08:35:33 AM
I suppose if China wants to cash in all the US debt they bought, then the world economy will collapse.

Dont think they can just do that right

They can just sell their holdings and flood the market.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on August 24, 2015, 09:00:23 AM
And we're turning, AAPL in positive territory after going down to 92, I might come out ahead today
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 24, 2015, 09:02:49 AM
And we're turning, AAPL in positive territory after going down to 92, I might come out ahead today

So Tim Cook sent an email to Cramer this morning regarding Apple in China.

(I thought it was a non issue for Apple)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on August 24, 2015, 09:03:14 AM
I suppose if China wants to cash in all the US debt they bought, then the world economy will collapse.

Dont think they can just do that right

They can just sell their holdings and flood the market.

That would be extremely silly especially since they just voluntarily depreciated the yuan and the move would move their biggest customer back into rescission.

US holds a lot more leverage over China with respect to the bonds.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 24, 2015, 09:07:16 AM
And we're turning, AAPL in positive territory after going down to 92, I might come out ahead today

The news you want to take out of apple is apple iphone6 plus blurry photos.  (Limited recall apple is doing)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: paperboyNC on August 24, 2015, 09:10:35 AM
I suppose if China wants to cash in all the US debt they bought, then the world economy will collapse.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-09/china-slashes-u-s-debt-stake-by-180-billion-and-bonds-shrug

To get a sense of how robust demand is for U.S. Treasuries, consider that China has reduced its holdings by about $180 billion and the market barely reacted.

Benchmark 10-year yields fell 0.6 percentage point even though the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt pared its stake between March 2014 and May of this year, based on the most recent data available from the Treasury Department. That’s not the doomsday scenario portrayed by those who said the size of the holdings -- which peaked at $1.65 trillion in 2014 -- would leave the U.S. vulnerable to China’s whims.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on August 24, 2015, 09:11:24 AM
it is kind of scary that China is one of the few, if not the only large economy left whose central bank/government still has the ammunition to pop up the market. But once China runs out its bullets, the next (next) crisis is going to bring WWW III
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on August 24, 2015, 09:35:51 AM
The correction corrected itself. What a short window for the dip
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on August 24, 2015, 09:36:16 AM
So you guys think 16,000ish appears to be the floor? Seems like after being down 1000 today the market seems to realize it was getting a bit irrational? Any thoughts?

Just debating when to reload/average down after taking with no Vaseline the last week.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on August 24, 2015, 09:39:01 AM
Tim Cook saved the day?

So you guys think 16,000ish appears to be the floor? Seems like after being down 1000 today the market seems to realize it was getting a bit irrational? Any thoughts?

Just debating when to reload/average down after taking with no Vaseline the last week.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on August 24, 2015, 09:46:10 AM
Anyone got some good deal this morning?

The First 20 min was so crazy, I've difficult time to get even a single trade processed.  The trade traffic was so high that almost crash my brokerage's site.   
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on August 24, 2015, 09:46:56 AM
I couldn't log in to my brokerage site either
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on August 24, 2015, 09:49:49 AM
WWWBD
What would Warren Buffett do....

I had a difficult time just looking at yahoo or Google finance page. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on August 24, 2015, 10:37:46 AM
Warren buys mismanaged companies and fixes them.  His stock picks are like Trump's real estate deals he isn't buying retail

Now grab some Tums and get trading or turn off the news feed and come back in a month when the market is probably back to highs

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Goriot on August 24, 2015, 10:42:20 AM
Nice come back from 1,000 pt drop.  But, don't try to catch the falling knife yet by going all in.  Take profit on the up bounce and jump back when people give up.  More downward action still to come.  Market bottoms when individual investors says "Mercy". 
But, it will eventually come back in the long-run as usual so gradual dollar cost averaging is a good strategy.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on August 24, 2015, 05:40:43 PM
Today would have been a great day to trade those vix options. Doubt it goes higher in the short term but who knows?

What kind of margin is required for your naked vix options?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 25, 2015, 12:40:31 AM
Shanghai market down, Japan Market down
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 25, 2015, 08:25:59 AM
Good thing I sold everything yesterday and went 100% cash... Oops.

JK.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 25, 2015, 08:37:40 AM
Traders dream!!

https://youtu.be/X8PyTo6NyXA (https://youtu.be/X8PyTo6NyXA)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on August 25, 2015, 09:03:49 AM
Shanghai market down, Japan Market down

eyephone, staying up late at night watching Asian market eh ?   >:D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 25, 2015, 11:42:10 AM
Shanghai market down, Japan Market down

eyephone, staying up late at night watching Asian market eh ?   >:D

Just a quick view on the cnbc app.

#moneyneversleeps
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Goriot on August 25, 2015, 01:15:35 PM
Volatility continues.  Last minute stock dumping.  Anyone try to catch a falling knife? It was up 400pt in the morning and closed down to Negative 204 pt.  It was up 200 pt around noon and 400pt swing to a negative territory in the last 30 minutes.   Outch!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on August 25, 2015, 01:18:09 PM

Volatility continues.  Last minute stock dumping.  It was up 400pt in the morning and closed down to Negative 204 pt.  It was up 200 pt around noon and 400pt swing to negative territory in the last 30 minutes.   Not pretty~


Dow closed at 15,666  >:D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 25, 2015, 01:43:06 PM

Volatility continues.  Last minute stock dumping.  It was up 400pt in the morning and closed down to Negative 204 pt.  It was up 200 pt around noon and 400pt swing to negative territory in the last 30 minutes.   Not pretty~


Dow closed at 15,666  >:D

And down -204.91 pts.

2+0+4+9+1 = SIXteen...!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 25, 2015, 04:11:59 PM
Today would have been a great day to trade those vix options. Doubt it goes higher in the short term but who knows?

What kind of margin is required for your naked vix options?

As the VIX rises so does the required margin.  But in a somewhat calm market you'll need about $30k of margin to sell 100 naked out-of-the-money VIX calls.  I think currently the margin is more like $50k-$60k per 100 naked contracts.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 27, 2015, 09:04:28 AM
duuhhhhhh

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on August 27, 2015, 09:31:17 AM
FCX up +27%, PBR +11%, VALE +9% ..

banging my head now.. I was very close to double down yesterday when I saw the market up big but commodities stocks barely moved, but was too afraid to catch a falling knife.. :(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 27, 2015, 09:34:10 AM
sometimes it pays to pay

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/mini-flash-crash-trading-anomalies-on-manic-monday-hit-small-investors/2015/08/26/6bdc57b0-4c22-11e5-bfb9-9736d04fc8e4_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/mini-flash-crash-trading-anomalies-on-manic-monday-hit-small-investors/2015/08/26/6bdc57b0-4c22-11e5-bfb9-9736d04fc8e4_story.html)

Mini flash crash? Trading anomalies on manic Monday hit small investors.

Millions of these Main Street investors were locked out during the crucial hour when the worst hit, just as markets opened Monday. Popular trading platforms run by TD Ameritrade, Scottrade and others ran slow or not at all as panic grabbed hold. It took just six minutes for the Dow Jones industrial average to suffer its biggest drop in history. And these investors could only watch.

“It makes me wonder if a guy like me has a fair chance or not,” said Israel Hernandez, a lawyer in Casa Grande, Ariz., who could not log onto his online broker.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on August 27, 2015, 09:49:06 AM
True for ipo's as well, a lot of people "couldn't" log in.  By the time they do, a lot of the gains were missed
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Bullsback on August 27, 2015, 09:53:20 AM
It is absolutely true. It is why I stick to the adage (with exception to some play money...which is more just for fun then anything else where I'll pick and choose a few stocks), that I believe you just Dollar Cost Average the S&P (and if you want some foreign exposure, pick a couple foreign indexes and do something similar).  Not many people are going to beat the S&P long term (after factoring in trading costs, etc). 

Note: I would not say this if you are looking to invest funds for shorter term purposes as then their are advantages to other strategies, which while limiting potential upside, also limit potential downside as the S&P can expose to you short-term volatility. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on August 27, 2015, 09:55:10 AM
sometimes it pays to pay

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/mini-flash-crash-trading-anomalies-on-manic-monday-hit-small-investors/2015/08/26/6bdc57b0-4c22-11e5-bfb9-9736d04fc8e4_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/mini-flash-crash-trading-anomalies-on-manic-monday-hit-small-investors/2015/08/26/6bdc57b0-4c22-11e5-bfb9-9736d04fc8e4_story.html)

Mini flash crash? Trading anomalies on manic Monday hit small investors.

Millions of these Main Street investors were locked out during the crucial hour when the worst hit, just as markets opened Monday. Popular trading platforms run by TD Ameritrade, Scottrade and others ran slow or not at all as panic grabbed hold. It took just six minutes for the Dow Jones industrial average to suffer its biggest drop in history. And these investors could only watch.

“It makes me wonder if a guy like me has a fair chance or not,” said Israel Hernandez, a lawyer in Casa Grande, Ariz., who could not log onto his online broker.

Individual investors don't stand a chance against institutional investors.  Michael Lewis wrote about just one advantage that institutional traders have.

Quote
"The stock market is rigged," Michael Lewis tells Fresh Air's Terry Gross. "It's rigged for the benefit for really a handful of insiders. It's rigged to ... maximize the take of Wall Street, of banks, the exchanges and the high-frequency traders at the expense of ordinary investors."

Lewis is the author of several books about the world of finance, including Liar's Poker and The Big Short. His new book Flash Boys is about the form of computerized transactions known as high-frequency trading, in which the fastest computers with the highest connection speeds get the information first, and make the trade before anyone else can. A millisecond — even a nanosecond — can make all the difference between how much money is made or lost on any transaction.


http://www.npr.org/2014/04/01/297686724/on-a-rigged-wall-street-milliseconds-make-all-the-difference

Only thing you can do as a individual investor is hang on through the rough patches and have a long term outlook on stock investments.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 30, 2015, 08:41:01 PM
Shanghai down 3% and US futures down. There is a report Beijing may stop it's market intervention.


http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/30/shanghai-stocks-slip-as-china-halts-market-intervention.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 30, 2015, 08:52:09 PM
Why China won't prop up the market

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/30/china-to-abandon-attempts-to-boost-stock-market.html



(what would we do without CNBC, the leader in financial news reporting)

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on September 01, 2015, 07:26:41 AM
Looks like we're having another cliff diving day.

Missed last Monday's DOW equavelant of "Black Friday" sale.  All the good stuff were gone in the first few minutes of store opening. 

We probably going to have more opportunities this month. :)



Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 01, 2015, 10:31:57 AM
Looks like we're having another cliff diving day.

Missed last Monday's DOW equavelant of "Black Friday" sale.  All the good stuff were gone in the first few minutes of store opening. 

We probably going to have more opportunities this month. :)

Not Black Friday sale - but end of season clearance.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 01, 2015, 02:24:20 PM
Anybody get a bargain deal today?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on September 01, 2015, 03:03:43 PM
Anybody get a bargain deal today?

Not me.  After getting a taste of last Monday's low, today's deal doesn't seem that good anymore.

For the long term, current price of many stocks sound pretty reasonable but I'm a little greedy and I've a hunch that DOW might fall another 500 to 1000 point sometime this month. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on September 01, 2015, 03:54:04 PM
Back at 16,000ish, I agree with inc that it will hit 15,500-15,700 but at this point why not put some chips on the table? I picked up some SSO today.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on September 02, 2015, 07:47:30 AM
Market has become ‘trader’s paradise’: Technician

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/31/ (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/31/)

Wait, this sounds familiar.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 04, 2015, 07:34:50 AM
Another dow(n) day?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on September 04, 2015, 08:32:34 AM
NFLX a buy
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 04, 2015, 09:14:03 AM
NFLX a buy

you think? Even IF Apple might be producing original content 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 04, 2015, 10:36:21 AM
Time to look on the bargain bin again.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on September 04, 2015, 10:42:28 AM
NFLX under $100, load it up?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on September 04, 2015, 10:50:12 AM
I think there is a chance of picking it up in the low $90s
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 04, 2015, 10:50:42 AM
Would BRK-B be a good long term investment? (Around 129)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 04, 2015, 12:33:05 PM
Don't do a USCTrojan and underestimate NFLX.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 04, 2015, 01:21:41 PM
Don't do a USCTrojan and underestimate NFLX.

If Apple produces original content.

#GameChanger
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 04, 2015, 01:26:43 PM
I think "right now" Disney has more upside than Netflix.

#starwars
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on September 04, 2015, 01:39:40 PM
Would BRK-B be a good long term investment? (Around 129)

Current price is pretty good but the price would be even better if uncle Warren suddenly kick the bucket. :)

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on September 17, 2015, 11:05:32 AM
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged.

Unchanged for now and probably will hike the rate later this year.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on September 17, 2015, 12:41:51 PM
The RMB has already depreciated to 6.4 per 1 usd (from 6.2).  Will a rate hike by the FED depreciate it more?  Isn't a rate hike the opposite of printing money?  Interest rates go up, liquidity get puts back in the banks.

A conspiracy theory I read on zerohedge said that the FED asked China to depreciate their RMBs so that the FED could have an easier time with congress & the American people to print more money (QE5) and delay a rate hike.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 06, 2015, 04:18:33 PM
Yum took a dive after hours, time to pick up some KFC
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on October 07, 2015, 04:47:19 AM
The RMB has already depreciated to 6.4 per 1 usd (from 6.2).  Will a rate hike by the FED depreciate it more?  Isn't a rate hike the opposite of printing money?  Interest rates go up, liquidity get puts back in the banks.

A conspiracy theory I read on zerohedge said that the FED asked China to depreciate their RMBs so that the FED could have an easier time with congress & the American people to print more money (QE5) and delay a rate hike.

RMB doesn't work on regular currency philosophies/guidelines...it only dropped in value because the CCP was trying to jump start the Chinese stock market and maintain the Chinese edge in labor costs.  The Chinese are not that accommodating to American interests, especially when its economy in not so good shape.  The cracks are a lot wider than people see.

Fed is not going to do another QE5 although the latest employment numbers may delay the hike in interest rates.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on October 07, 2015, 04:48:29 AM
This is an interesting take on Apple's cash reserves.   I wonder how many other company's cash reserve numbers are similarly limited.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apples-real-cash-pile-is-99-smaller-than-you-think-2015-10-07?dist=beforebell
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: paperboyNC on October 10, 2015, 07:33:40 AM
This is an interesting take on Apple's cash reserves.   I wonder how many other company's cash reserve numbers are similarly limited.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apples-real-cash-pile-is-99-smaller-than-you-think-2015-10-07?dist=beforebell

Since you don't calculate available cash the way they did, the article means nothing. They took cash minus potential taxes and all liabilities (for one, potential taxes are double counted since they are already included in the liabilities). They didn't add in any assets other than cash (such as inventory, accounts receivable, etc.)

Basically click bait with useless info.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 19, 2015, 02:03:01 PM
I don’t know if its resilience, or psychological defense mechanisms or if is really true,  that time heals all wounds but It never ceases to amaze me how short our memories are as a species.  On this date 28 years ago the world was ending,  right now.  Armageddon had arrived and we were all doomed!!!!  In case you don’ t remember the relevance of todays date let me show you what has hung on my office wall for 28 years since that day…

…that is a copy of my paper the morning of October 20th 1987.  To put that into perspective of today’s market,  the Dow Jones would have to fall 3891 points from where it is (17221)  IN ONE DAY!!!!  I Know this might seem irrelevant to some of you but I assure you that in today’s media driven environment a fall of almost 4000 points in one day would shake the world to its core.  I point this out as this event is now mentioned as a foot note In the morning news.  Yes, we all survived this and thrived but wait till it happens again, The media makes 1000 point flash crashes sound like the end of the world but you should view them with a little perspective next time you yearn to punch the panic button.  It is NEVER “unprecedented” and In the end perhaps time does heal all wounds.  Today’s lesson from my nostalgia.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: iacrenter on October 19, 2015, 02:31:38 PM
I don’t know if its resilience, or psychological defense mechanisms or if is really true,  that time heals all wounds but It never ceases to amaze me how short our memories are as a species.  On this date 28 years ago the world was ending,  right now.  Armageddon had arrived and we were all doomed!!!!  In case you don’ t remember the relevance of todays date let me show you what has hung on my office wall for 28 years since that day…

…that is a copy of my paper the morning of October 20th 1987.  To put that into perspective of today’s market,  the Dow Jones would have to fall 3891 points from where it is (17221)  IN ONE DAY!!!!  I Know this might seem irrelevant to some of you but I assure you that in today’s media driven environment a fall of almost 4000 points in one day would shake the world to its core.  I point this out as this event is now mentioned as a foot note In the morning news.  Yes, we all survived this and thrived but wait till it happens again, The media makes 1000 point flash crashes sound like the end of the world but you should view them with a little perspective next time you yearn to punch the panic button.  It is NEVER “unprecedented” and In the end perhaps time does heal all wounds.  Today’s lesson from my nostalgia.


There have been a lot of new market policies that have been implemented since that time. It would be more difficult (but not impossible) to replicate a one day 20% drop with the new circuit breaker program. They would probably halt all market trading for a time.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on October 19, 2015, 02:46:22 PM
Yea. I wonder if those changes will make it worse.  That crash was over before most could do anything. Imagine that crash getting half done and everything getting put on hold until tomorrow. Then a repeat.  Then instead of people licking their wounds many thinking get out and buy in lower. Or what about investor psychology if it rolls into a third day?

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 22, 2015, 08:35:13 AM
Get some VRX, if you dare
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on October 23, 2015, 12:16:45 PM
It's payday and 401k deposit day today.  Should have known.  The conspiracy is still alive!  :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 23, 2015, 10:25:41 PM
It's payday and 401k deposit day today.  Should have known.  The conspiracy is still alive!  :)

Yes, I have been watching this from your last post about the spike to coincide with payday and 401K deposit. The question I have is if 401 K is deducted every two weeks which most major corporation do, those funds are then purchase immediately correct?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on October 23, 2015, 11:00:50 PM
It's payday and 401k deposit day today.  Should have known.  The conspiracy is still alive!  :)

Yes, I have been watching this from your last post about the spike to coincide with payday and 401K deposit. The question I have is if 401 K is deducted every two weeks which most major corporation do, those funds are then purchase immediately correct?

401K funds are generally funded differently than payroll. For a Friday payday, payroll is generally submitted to ADP/Paychex, etc on on Tuesday by 5:30pm and then a wire is sent to ADP on wednesday to fund payroll. the 401K wire to the 401K administrator (fidelity, etc) is usually sent out on payday or monday of the following week. So at best, a purchase by the 401K administator probably happens on monday and most likely on tuesday.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 27, 2015, 03:59:30 PM
Buy twtr and hope Google takes over?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 27, 2015, 04:53:21 PM
Buy twtr and hope Google takes over?

No
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on October 28, 2015, 07:17:32 AM
Buy twtr and hope Google takes over?

No

How about now? 

TWTR down 10% at opening, time to buy?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 28, 2015, 07:30:20 AM
Put in a buy at $27.5, not familiar with this stock but willing for some fun right now, 80% cash position, getting itchy
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 28, 2015, 07:35:30 AM
WBA down?  Thought they got RAD for cheap.  And please keep my favorite artificially flavored black cherry thrifty ice cream.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on October 28, 2015, 09:22:04 AM
Thrifty ice cream... tbt 😄
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 29, 2015, 02:53:58 PM
WBA down?  Thought they got RAD for cheap.  And please keep my favorite artificially flavored black cherry thrifty ice cream.

This may not happen due to anti-trust issues...along with the Pfizer deal. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 29, 2015, 04:06:37 PM
Yeah, got rid of my WBA shares I picked up yesterday today.  Lost about $50.  What to do next, now I'm at 100% cash position.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: daedalus on October 29, 2015, 05:49:03 PM
dump it all into VXX calls.  :D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 29, 2015, 08:29:43 PM
VRX thrashed again, watch this closely
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 29, 2015, 08:38:20 PM
Didn't know they were in Irvine and owns B&L.

http://valeant.jobs/irvine/california/usa/jobs/
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 29, 2015, 09:26:56 PM
Weren't they trying to buy Allergan?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 29, 2015, 09:42:00 PM


http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/10/29/valeant-shares-fall-on-cvs-action/74818272/
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 30, 2015, 05:17:55 AM
Valeant drops Philidor.  Should be fun to watch today.  Here's the original Citron piece that started the whole crash:

http://www.citronresearch.com
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 30, 2015, 09:14:04 AM
Valeant drops Philidor.  Should be fun to watch today.  Here's the original Citron piece that started the whole crash:

http://www.citronresearch.com

I hope you took my advice and didn't buy Valeant.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on October 30, 2015, 09:29:13 AM
Was contemplating about load up some LNKD a few weeks back when it was below 200. 

I'm kicking my self today for not getting some.  It's up over 20 this morning and trading above $240. >:(

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 30, 2015, 12:37:41 PM
Buy VRX at 89.59, almost got there, let's see if it plummets at close.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on October 30, 2015, 12:43:17 PM
Jeeesh, VRX moved more shares today than AAPL, somebody made a lot of money and a lot of Canadians lost money
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 02, 2015, 08:17:31 PM
My first year of investing, gained about 3%.  Dow is up about 5%, here's what I learned this past year:

1). Just buy an index fund and go enjoy your time elsewhere.  At least my 3% increase beat some big name hedgies!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 02, 2015, 08:27:19 PM
My first year of investing, gained about 3%.  Dow is up about 5%, here's what I learned this past year:

1). Just buy an index fund and go enjoy your time elsewhere.  At least my 3% increase beat some big name hedgies!

Your still ahead. Just imagine if you put your money in a 1% cd.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 03, 2015, 08:26:08 PM
Took the plunge and got in with VRX at $97 and change towards market close today.  A big move for me, took about 50% of my cash position.  Seems oversold with all the Citron/Philidor hoopla, which is hopefully over.  Indominus Rex pharma, what's not to like? :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 03, 2015, 08:49:06 PM
Took the plunge and got in with VRX at $97 and change towards market close today.  A big move for me, took about 50% of my cash position.  Seems oversold with all the Citron/Philidor hoopla, which is hopefully over.  Indominus Rex pharma, what's not to like? :)

high risk, high reward

#ilikeit

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: WTTCHMN on November 04, 2015, 08:57:07 AM
Took the plunge and got in with VRX at $97 and change towards market close today.  A big move for me, took about 50% of my cash position.  Seems oversold with all the Citron/Philidor hoopla, which is hopefully over.  Indominus Rex pharma, what's not to like? :)

high risk, high reward

#ilikeit

More like high risk, high loss.  Senate panel just launched a probe.  Expect this to be a big issue in this election cycle.  50% of your cash position?  There goes your Eastwood down payment.


Wed Nov 4, 2015 9:42am EST

U.S. Senate panel probing Valeant, Turing over drug costs

A U.S. Senate panel on Wednesday launched a bipartisan probe into pharmaceutical drug pricing, seeking documents from four drugmakers including Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Turing Pharmaceuticals, two companies embroiled in controversy over price hikes on lifesaving drugs.

The Senate's Special Committee on Aging also requested information from Retrophin Inc and Rodelis Therapeutics, according to a statement from the panel's Republican Chairwoman Susan Collins and Claire McCaskill, its top Democrat.

"The sudden, aggressive price hikes for a variety of drugs used widely for decades affect patients and health care providers and the overall cost of health care," Collins said, adding that her committee is probing the increases given the potential harm to patients.

McCaskill added: "We need to get to the bottom of why we’re seeing huge spikes in drug prices that seemingly have no relationship to research and development costs."

In a letter to Valeant Chief Executive Mike Pearson, the committee chairs wrote that it wanted more information on the increase in the price of sodium drug Nitropress used to treat high blood pressure by 625 percent to $1,346.62 per vial on the day Valeant acquired the drug. It also cited an 820 percent increase to $36,811 for 25 pills of heart drug Isuprel and an 2,949 percent increase to $26,189 for one hundred capsules of Cuprimine for rheumatoid arthritis.

The Aging committee's probe comes amid growing pressure on drugmakers over their pricing. Later on Wednesday, Democrats in the House of Representatives are scheduled to hold a news conference to discuss "meaningful action to combat the skyrocketing costs of pharmaceuticals."

The Senate committee also said it wanted to hear more about Turing's Daraprim, an anti-infective drug used to treat toxoplasmosis among other diseases. Earlier this year Turing raised the price on the drug overnight to $750 per pill from $13.50.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had singled out the move on the campaign trail as a sign of excess and the need for the government to clamp down on the sector. Turing has defended the move in the past and did not immediately comment on Wednesday's probe.

Valeant did not have an immediate comment. Its shares were slightly higher in pre-market trading at $98.99 compared with a close of $97.84 on the New York Stock Exchange. Retrophin shares were trading down pre-market at $19.50 from a close of $21.82 on Nasdaq.

Federal prosecutors in New York and Massachusetts are already probing drug pricing and patient assistance programs at Valeant, which is also under scrutiny over separate allegations that it used specialty pharmacies to pad its revenue.

The New York state attorney general's office is also investigating Turing over whether its price increases of Daraprim, an anti-parasitic drug used to treat patients with weak immune systems, broke violated antitrust rules.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 04, 2015, 09:07:18 AM
Took the plunge and got in with VRX at $97 and change towards market close today.  A big move for me, took about 50% of my cash position.  Seems oversold with all the Citron/Philidor hoopla, which is hopefully over.  Indominus Rex pharma, what's not to like? :)

Just checked it's around $94 and change
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 04, 2015, 11:56:02 AM
Sold quickly after the senate probe announcement, might jump back in.  Still have upside I feel, just need to weather the storm
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on November 04, 2015, 12:11:53 PM
Watch out for the wash sale rule.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 04, 2015, 12:13:58 PM
Sold quickly after the senate probe announcement, might jump back in.  Still have upside I feel, just need to weather the storm


#inandout
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on November 04, 2015, 01:10:31 PM
50% of cash position in this is too much risk for me. When Petrobras was being investigated I knew (well assumed low probability) it would not go under due to govt backing. No government is going to back these guys
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Bullsback on November 04, 2015, 01:55:55 PM
50% of a cash position is too much to invest in any one stock (unless it is an index fund). 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 04, 2015, 05:34:00 PM
PS9, if you want to make some money...I should teach you how to trade VIX options (not for the faint of heart but fun and profitable).  Already gained enough for my single-story 3-car garage downpayment with this year's gains.   >:D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 04, 2015, 05:38:02 PM
You mean play with money you don't have and with no limit how much you can lose? 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 04, 2015, 05:46:20 PM
You mean play with money you don't have and with no limit how much you can lose? 

You have to have money for margin to sell naked options and you use stops/strangles/straddles to protect yourself.  I'm not exposing myself to company risk, just market risk.  I use technical analysis on both the VIX and S&P to decide what trades I'll make.  I lost $26k that one day in August when we had the melt down day because I got stopped out of my positions, but I made that up and then some in Sept.  I've been trading VIX options for 5 years and have never had a negative year.  The goal is to collect enough premium in the good days that you can absorb the hits that you'll take.  It's an aggressive income strategy and not for everyone, but if you are disciplined you can make good gains.  Plus, the best part is that 60% of the gains are treated as LONG TERM capital gains because VIX options are cash settled. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 04, 2015, 06:09:01 PM
Does it require a constant eye/pulse on the market?  My day job is not trader friendly :)

Got lucky with VRX today, been watching it closely the past week and thought the support was there, luckily the senate probe news broke in the early morning or else I would be down a couple grand today.

Feel bad for them, what they do is not that much different than other big pharma, who doesn't raise prices?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 05, 2015, 06:47:01 AM
Does it require a constant eye/pulse on the market?  My day job is not trader friendly :)

Got lucky with VRX today, been watching it closely the past week and thought the support was there, luckily the senate probe news broke in the early morning or else I would be down a couple grand today.

Feel bad for them, what they do is not that much different than other big pharma, who doesn't raise prices?

You can trade more out-of-the-money VIX calls and not have to babysit your positions.  With a  lot of those positions you will be just waiting for the options to expire worthless (e.g. $30+ VIX for Nov).  They introduced weekly VIX option in Oct so there's more opportunities to make some money on trades.  I look at the market a few times a day, many times using my TDAmeritrade trading app.  One of my buddies was curious about my trading and now he sells 100-200 call options and makes about $4k-$6k/month without much effort.  I do tell him that sooner or later you'll give some of your gains back, you just have to limit those losses. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 05, 2015, 02:17:43 PM
VRX took another beating today, 57.20M vol!  Did hedgies dump their shares?  And all this on no new bad news day. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on November 10, 2015, 09:33:54 AM
Ps9 - if you liked Vrx at 95 you gotta love it at 81 right?

This thing is getting tempting.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 10, 2015, 09:43:20 AM
Ps9 - if you liked Vrx at 95 you gotta love it at 81 right?

This thing is getting tempting.

You think?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on November 10, 2015, 09:55:00 AM
Ps9 - if you liked Vrx at 95 you gotta love it at 81 right?

This thing is getting tempting.

You think?

You'll like it even more at 75.  Crooks.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on November 10, 2015, 10:01:12 AM
Buy put options to hedge against long positions?
Or do you guys just use a stop to prevent further losses?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 10, 2015, 11:34:44 AM
No comment, every time I say something it does the opposite!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on November 10, 2015, 12:37:26 PM
Buy put options to hedge against long positions?
Or do you guys just use a stop to prevent further losses?

There's always covered calls, the classic hedge - but I've always found that akin to playing roulette and betting $100 on black then putting $50 on red just in case black doesn't hit.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 10, 2015, 01:28:01 PM
Got some financials, a little PBR, a little FIT, and a teeny tiny amount of VRX.  TSLA is almost within range again.  Back with AAPL if it goes near 110.  Let's go rate hike!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on November 10, 2015, 02:01:46 PM
Buy put options to hedge against long positions?
Or do you guys just use a stop to prevent further losses?

There's always covered calls, the classic hedge - but I've always found that akin to playing roulette and betting $100 on black then putting $50 on red just in case black doesn't hit.
I think it's because since this stock is in the news, volatility is probably 100%, makes for an interesting options strategy.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 12, 2015, 07:43:37 AM
Ps9 - if you liked Vrx at 95 you gotta love it at 81 right?

This thing is getting tempting.

You think?

You'll like it even more at 75.  Crooks.

It's around 75 today. I still woundnt buy it.
There are other stocks out there that fit my investment strategy criteria.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on November 12, 2015, 08:08:26 AM
Too bad I don't have an edge.  Was thinking that was a perfect time to straddle at $85 strike when it was at that price on Tuesday for this Friday expiration call and put only couple bucks.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on November 12, 2015, 08:17:42 AM
Ps9 - if you liked Vrx at 95 you gotta love it at 81 right?

This thing is getting tempting.

You think?

You'll like it even more at 75.  Crooks.

It's around 75 today. I still woundnt buy it.
There are other stocks out there that fit my investment strategy criteria.



Not much support till around $59-$60
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 12, 2015, 10:03:20 AM
Got some financials, a little PBR, a little FIT, and a teeny tiny amount of VRX.  TSLA is almost within range again.  Back with AAPL if it goes near 110.  Let's go rate hike!

Hmm - almost balanced, but wouldn't you say you are heavy on the tech side?
Also don't you own Netflix?

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 13, 2015, 12:13:05 PM
Retail getting thrashed, keeping an eye on NKE.

My poor FIT :(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on November 13, 2015, 03:08:21 PM
TSLA is almost within range again.

Be careful with TSLA. 

Wall Street is underestimating Tesla cash burn (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-is-underestimating-tesla-cash-burn-barclays-2015-11-13)

Quote
Tesla TSLA doesn’t have a good track record in spending efficiently, and its business strategy will keep it a capital-intensive company, the analysts said. They estimated Tesla, which has consistently lost money, will go through $11 billion in capital spending over the next five years.

The Barclays analysts, among the biggest Wall Street skeptics toward the company, kept intact their sell rating on the stock and a price target of $180,
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 16, 2015, 02:05:55 PM
Nice bump in PBR today, what's a good exit?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 17, 2015, 07:41:53 AM
Go AMZN!  After hours around $350

9 months later... Damn should've kept my first trade, could've tripled my money.

Is there still upside in AMZN?  Pick up now and hope for the same end of Jan earnings pop?  I'm sure they'll make a killing again during holidays, nobody shops retail anymore, right?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 17, 2015, 08:00:21 AM
#PrimeIsPrimeTime
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on November 17, 2015, 10:15:27 AM
I don't want to say it.

Think about doing the opposite of PS9.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on November 17, 2015, 10:33:59 AM
Amazon isn't about retail anymore.  It's all about the cloud.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: spootieho on November 17, 2015, 12:54:37 PM
Amazon isn't about retail anymore.  It's all about the cloud.
It's cloud is good news, but... what about the 950+ P/E ratio?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on November 17, 2015, 02:00:09 PM
High PE ratio doesn't necessarily mean its overvalued. I believe they reinvest their earnings.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on November 17, 2015, 04:53:14 PM
In with you ps9. I had a good chunk of Amazon shares at 280 :-(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on November 19, 2015, 07:29:13 PM
Retail getting thrashed, keeping an eye on NKE.

My poor FIT :(

Nike stock split!  I got it right!  Too bad I didn't heed my own advice...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Happiness on November 20, 2015, 11:20:56 AM
.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 03, 2015, 12:34:08 PM
Rate hike coming soon
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on December 06, 2015, 12:40:47 PM
Who wants some ecoli, CMG a buy this coming week?  Could see a good pop once they find the source of the contamination or it could fall more if it's CMG's fault...

Dropped to $517 aftermarket
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 06, 2015, 02:54:37 PM
Who wants some ecoli, CMG a buy this coming week?  Could see a good pop once they find the source of the contamination or it could fall more if it's CMG's fault...

Dropped to $517 aftermarket

They issued a warning that sales will drop.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on December 08, 2015, 03:47:54 PM
Back in with PBR at $4.44,  unlucky triple death!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on December 11, 2015, 05:53:23 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sU4mDyj8DSI

Premarket looks painful, I thought Fridays are up days? Time to buy an electric car
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 11, 2015, 07:36:21 AM
Beware the ides of August?  I wrote about this phenomena four years ago when I noticed that each August the markets lose their collective minds but then come back to reality just a month or two later.  This August seems  to be no different.  For all the hoopla and doom and gloom The Dow Jones is only down 6% year to date, about where it was a year ago,  the S and P 500 is down 2.4% year to date while the Over The counter Market (OTC) is actually still UP 1% this year.  Not to be totally devoid of feelings but, SO WHAT?   As I have repeatedly said, until the fed moves on rates we will trade in a sideways basing pattern. Frustrating for investors but a total dream for traders.  Look at that chart and notice the August pattern, pretty amazing, isn’t it?  This is just another opportunity to take advantage of the weak.  Put on the blinders

Told ya.  Flat market for the year.  Traders dream, investors nightmare
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on December 11, 2015, 08:32:37 AM
Back in with PBR at $4.44,  unlucky triple death!

I'm loading up on pbr/nbr/fcx. Not sure how much lower they will go but I'm willing to find out. At this point there is more longer term upside than downside.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 11, 2015, 12:50:41 PM
Looks like oil is heading towards the $20s soon...I might buy some oil stocks once it gets there.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 16, 2015, 12:22:13 PM
All Aboard!!! The train is leaving the station!!.  Now that the rate hike is done we are set up to break out of a long term basing pattern.  Barring an unforeseen terrorist strike the next major sustained move will be UP
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 16, 2015, 01:21:33 PM
Looks like oil is heading towards the $20s soon...I might buy some oil stocks once it gets there.

Things are going to be bad for all those oil boom states and industries...Alaska is already in trouble.

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/12/09/5-States-Getting-Crushed-Low-Oil-Prices

Apparently ND is buffered by some diversification but I would presume it's going to be bad when the tax base/population goes back to other states.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 16, 2015, 01:29:28 PM
Looks like oil is heading towards the $20s soon...I might buy some oil stocks once it gets there.

Things are going to be bad for all those oil boom states and industries...Alaska is already in trouble.

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/12/09/5-States-Getting-Crushed-Low-Oil-Prices

Apparently ND is buffered by some diversification but I would presume it's going to be bad when the tax base/population goes back to other states.

This is going to help a lot...

http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/investing/oil-prices-export-ban-congress-deal/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/investing/oil-prices-export-ban-congress-deal/index.html)

America poised to export oil for first time in 40 years


Lawmakers are close to authorizing oil exports as part of a broader $1.1 trillion spending and tax bill working its way through Congress. Sources told CNN the compromise measure, which is needed to avert a government shutdown, includes a provision that would roll back the export restriction.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 16, 2015, 01:31:54 PM
Looks like oil is heading towards the $20s soon...I might buy some oil stocks once it gets there.

Things are going to be bad for all those oil boom states and industries...Alaska is already in trouble.

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/12/09/5-States-Getting-Crushed-Low-Oil-Prices

Apparently ND is buffered by some diversification but I would presume it's going to be bad when the tax base/population goes back to other states.

This is going to help a lot...

http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/investing/oil-prices-export-ban-congress-deal/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/investing/oil-prices-export-ban-congress-deal/index.html)

America poised to export oil for first time in 40 years


Lawmakers are close to authorizing oil exports as part of a broader $1.1 trillion spending and tax bill working its way through Congress. Sources told CNN the compromise measure, which is needed to avert a government shutdown, includes a provision that would roll back the export restriction.

We shall see...OPEC is not exactly limiting supply and the global economy, esp. BRIC nations, are doing poorly.   
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on December 29, 2015, 01:05:30 PM
Sell and run tomorrow (but keep my FANGs)?  What's everyone's strategy for year end?  A whole year of active trading netted me about $1000.  That's a lot of hours for a measly $1000.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on December 29, 2015, 01:36:28 PM
Sell and run tomorrow (but keep my FANGs)?  What's everyone's strategy for year end?  A whole year of active trading netted me about $1000.  That's a lot of hours for a measly $1000.

At least you still beat the Dow and S&P (or roughly at par wtih S&P?).  A lot of so-called expert can't even claim that  >:D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 29, 2015, 02:05:39 PM
That's a lot of hours for a measly $1000.
I made more than that from the qwertapefund.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 29, 2015, 03:33:34 PM
Sell and run tomorrow (but keep my FANGs)?  What's everyone's strategy for year end?  A whole year of active trading netted me about $1000.  That's a lot of hours for a measly $1000.

Been selling VIX calls the past few weeks.  I'll start mixing it up in 2016 with selling both VIX calls and puts.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: B2FiNiTY on December 30, 2015, 02:07:02 AM
It's been a good year for me by being aggressive with the chinese adrs the past few years. If it wasn't for NQ and GTAT it would have been a record year. Regardless, it's been a good one. Not expecting such gains for next year.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on January 04, 2016, 07:24:38 AM
Guess I should have bought some of those VIX calls USC was selling.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 05, 2016, 10:27:19 AM
I cannot resist the comment here.  Does anyone remember what the market did on the first day of trading…LAST YEAR?  Anyone? Anyone?...Bueller?  Well, after reading the headlines yesterday and listening to all the talking head analysts last night the consensus was…

Dow closes down triple digits, posts worst opening day in 8 years


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/us-markets.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/us-markets.html)

Wow!! That looks bad. Dropped 275 point on the first day? Worst first day since 2008? You sure? Cause I seem to recall this…

Dow plunges 331 points as oil falls below $50

 by Heather Long  January 5, 2015: 4:08 PM ET

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/05/investing/stocks-market-fall-oil/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/05/investing/stocks-market-fall-oil/index.html)


Look at the DATE!! That was exactly a year ago. Opening day 2015!! If you forgot don’t worry, everyone else seems to have also!!  My point is, this too shall pass into oblivion.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on January 28, 2016, 02:48:54 PM
Dammit Gina, AMZN operation costs getting to high, say goodby to easy returns
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on January 28, 2016, 03:31:17 PM
Dammit Gina, AMZN operation costs getting to high, say goodby to easy returns

AMZN stock today is crazy.. it went up almost 9% today only to fall 13% in the afterhours after earnings.  some speculator/insider must have heard the wrong rumor  .. hehehehehe
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on March 15, 2016, 07:18:23 AM
VRX, down for the count, hope you guys got out
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on March 15, 2016, 01:54:05 PM
what price I should jump in?

VRX, down for the count, hope you guys got out
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on March 15, 2016, 03:05:19 PM
After they release the Philidor audits
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 15, 2016, 03:36:18 PM
It's seems like a huge overreaction for it to drop 47%. At 37 it seems like a good price. The restatements won't matter, that is all historical.

I thought about buying 1000 shares today and see what happens but I don't know this industry at all so decided to hold off. I'll  stick with my oil stocks. Dumped all my oil holdings when wti crossed 37.50. Now I'll just wait for oil to hit 30 again and reload. It seems like it will just continue to trade between 30 and 37-38
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Goriot on March 17, 2016, 04:24:18 PM
Pain continues - $29.69.  Can Ackman survive this?

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 19, 2016, 10:36:19 PM
I find this interesting, Atlanta Braves stock started to trade today. But I wouldn't buy it.


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/19/atlanta-braves-bad-baseball-team-worse-stock.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 20, 2016, 09:16:40 AM
WBA down?  Thought they got RAD for cheap.  And please keep my favorite artificially flavored black cherry thrifty ice cream.
 
This may not happen due to anti-trust issues...along with the Pfizer deal. 


Had a feeling they would find a reason to blow this deal up.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/06/investing/allergan-pfizer-merger/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/06/investing/allergan-pfizer-merger/index.html)

Pfizer-Allergan merger scrapped after Obama cracks down on tax breaks
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on April 28, 2016, 02:56:49 PM
Amazon blows past earnings estimates, shares pop 12% http://www.cnbc.com/id/103585018

Love my Echo
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 28, 2016, 03:08:10 PM
Amazon blows past earnings estimates, shares pop 12% http://www.cnbc.com/id/103585018

Love my Echo

You should be happy, right?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on April 30, 2016, 08:37:03 AM
Good time to buy. It's not too late to get in the oil run.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 03, 2016, 02:21:45 PM
Man... haven't tracked the Dow lately and it looks like it touched 18k again last week.

Anyone want to call 19k? Or 10k?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on May 03, 2016, 03:34:44 PM
Don't know, maybe 19k first then back to 15k late summer
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on May 03, 2016, 03:57:18 PM
Man... haven't tracked the Dow lately and it looks like it touched 18k again last week.

Anyone want to call 19k? Or 10k?

I have been buying.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on May 03, 2016, 04:19:40 PM
I'm going to wait till oil hits 30 again and reload on oil stocks.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on June 07, 2016, 05:27:44 PM
Hey guys check out picture 16 of this house:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-de-Caza/9-Orion-Way-92679/home/5013410

A stock ticker in your man cave, how cool is that.  I'd buy this house just for fantasy football and day trading.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on June 13, 2016, 10:15:10 AM
Microsoft buys LinkedIn.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-13/twitter-jumps-most-in-two-months-after-microsoft-buys-linkedin
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on June 21, 2016, 04:54:35 PM
Tesla buys solar city.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: acpme on June 21, 2016, 05:06:18 PM
Tesla buys solar city.

Tesla makes a fantastic product, but it's a terrible stock simply because Elon Musk can't be trusted. On top of missing production goals - which is largely the basis of their valuation - he misleads investors on major capital allocation decisions. Two qtrs ago on the earnings call, mgmt told investors the co had no funding shortfalls and won't need to issue equity. A week later they issued equity. CFO quit shortly after. Last qtr they pushed production goals yet again, then their heads of manufacturing quit. Now Musk is diluting Tesla shareholders to bail out one of his failing companies. It's like he's pulling out a ponzi scheme right under our noses.

But the product itself is unbelievable.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on June 21, 2016, 09:04:05 PM
Brexit vote coming up.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: AW on June 24, 2016, 09:14:09 AM
So who's buying British stocks today?
Especially the bank/financial sectors, jeez
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on June 29, 2016, 07:23:54 AM
So who's buying British stocks today?
Especially the bank/financial sectors, jeez

Good thing I never sold any positions. I only added during this Brexit crisis.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on July 12, 2016, 01:11:10 PM
Nice run up after Brexit, sold most of my positions today, back to 75% cash, waiting for the next scare
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 12, 2016, 03:50:07 PM
New highs...Will the August swoon of the last 5 year's  show up?  Who knows? What I do know is the media and fear mongers will get the public riled up about something soon...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 18, 2016, 02:11:13 PM
Netflix sinks/drops after hours.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: The California Court Company on July 18, 2016, 04:58:33 PM
I am not surprised Netflix is losing ground. there are a lot of other compelling competitors. Netflix also puts too much emphasis on its originals and their hollywood movie selection is getting worse and worse
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on July 18, 2016, 05:04:22 PM
I am not surprised Netflix is losing ground. there are a lot of other compelling competitors. Netflix also puts too much emphasis on its originals and their hollywood movie selection is getting worse and worse

It's not sorted out very well either. People like watching blockbuster Movies but it lacks in that department.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 18, 2016, 09:22:32 PM
I am not surprised Netflix is losing ground. there are a lot of other compelling competitors. Netflix also puts too much emphasis on its originals and their hollywood movie selection is getting worse and worse

Netflix original content nominated for 54 Emmy awards.

Source: http://fansided.com/2016/07/14/emmy-awards-netflix-snags-54-nominations/

(Netflix streaming competitors)
Amazon nominated for 16, Hulu 2

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-sees-big-jump-in-2016-emmy-nominations-2016-7
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 19, 2016, 07:27:09 AM
Netflix is down probably because of their recent price increase.

Subscribers will leave but Netflix is still the category leader in streaming video.

What they need to add is a pay-per-view option for recent releases to address having more recent content like Amazon Video does. I wouldn't mind paying $2-$5 for a newer movie without having to drive to a local Redbox.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 19, 2016, 08:53:06 AM
Netflix is down probably because of their recent price increase.

Subscribers will leave but Netflix is still the category leader in streaming video.

What they need to add is a pay-per-view option for recent releases to address having more recent content like Amazon Video does. I wouldn't mind paying $2-$5 for a newer movie without having to drive to a local Redbox.

if you had Apple TV (4th gen), you could rent or buy the new movies.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 19, 2016, 09:12:50 AM
Buying $85.49
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 19, 2016, 09:28:01 AM
Buying $85.49

It's good for long term.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 19, 2016, 01:13:05 PM
Buying $85.49

My limit ordered got cancelled for Netflix. Ha

I will try again tomorrow.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on July 19, 2016, 01:16:34 PM
I think it  will drop into the 70s
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 19, 2016, 01:53:46 PM
I think it  will drop into the 70s

Type in Google search: Netflix, Disney movies (this is public knowledge as there are multiple articles)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Compressed-Village on July 19, 2016, 01:59:07 PM
I think it  will drop into the 70s

Type in Google search: Netflix, Disney movies (this is public knowledge as there are multiple articles)

KODI Streaming all you can watch. "AYCW".
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 21, 2016, 11:25:41 AM
I think it  will drop into the 70s

Type in Google search: Netflix, Disney movies (this is public knowledge as there are multiple articles)

KODI Streaming all you can watch. "AYCW".

I don't do that stuff. I don't want to get computer virus and I don't believe in not paying for content.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 21, 2016, 11:26:09 AM
Retailers to make a comeback? Back to school play?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 22, 2016, 07:29:59 AM
Sketchers stock drops!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 22, 2016, 10:20:39 AM
Sketchers stock drops!
I placed a limit order on sketchers. Ha
(I like to roll the dice)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: paydawg on July 22, 2016, 10:28:27 AM
Sketchers stock drops!
I placed a limit order on sketchers. Ha
(I like to roll the dice)

Do you like the product?  No matter how low a stock price is, I'm not buying it unless I respect the company and its products.  My wife bought a pair of Sketcher walking shoes before our Europe trip and ended up hating them.  Their quality sucks and the service in their stores is even worse. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 23, 2016, 12:38:55 PM
Sketchers stock drops!
I placed a limit order on sketchers. Ha
(I like to roll the dice)

Do you like the product?  No matter how low a stock price is, I'm not buying it unless I respect the company and its products.  My wife bought a pair of Sketcher walking shoes before our Europe trip and ended up hating them.  Their quality sucks and the service in their stores is even worse.

I looked at the charts and last time it hit around 25 it took off.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 26, 2016, 07:33:00 AM
Buying $85.49

My limit ordered got cancelled for Netflix. Ha

I will try again tomorrow.

Limit orders limit your profits
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: ps9 on July 26, 2016, 07:38:19 AM
I got in around $85, so sell today?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 26, 2016, 07:40:49 AM
Nice trade...but I don't give advice (for free). ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 26, 2016, 08:45:28 AM
Buying $85.49

My limit ordered got cancelled for Netflix. Ha

I will try again tomorrow.

Limit orders limit your profits
How does it limit my profits? (When I put a price, that I am willing to buy the stock)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 26, 2016, 10:41:06 AM
That's an old traders saying, an old jibe. If I like something I usually just buy it. But I stare at this stuff all day long.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on July 26, 2016, 04:30:26 PM
So everyone bought AAPL $101 calls (Jul 29 exp) for .42 at close, riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 01, 2016, 12:24:58 PM
So everyone bought AAPL $101 calls (Jul 29 exp) for .42 at close, riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight?

Apple has completed an Island Reversal pattern...very bullish
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: paydawg on August 01, 2016, 01:18:16 PM
Just looking at the fundamentals, Apple should be closer to ~$130.  The P/E is just way too low, given its balance sheet. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on August 01, 2016, 02:42:33 PM
Just looking at the fundamentals, Apple should be closer to ~$130.  The P/E is just way too low, given its balance sheet. 

It's been this way for years.  I wouldn't buy on this alone.  That being said I'm already in the red on AAPL (went heavy in my Roth), so I'll probably just ride it out.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 05, 2016, 07:53:44 AM
Buying $85.49

It's good for long term.

Netflix and chill
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: paperboyNC on August 25, 2016, 09:45:06 AM
Just looking at the fundamentals, Apple should be closer to ~$130.  The P/E is just way too low, given its balance sheet. 

It's been this way for years.  I wouldn't buy on this alone.  That being said I'm already in the red on AAPL (went heavy in my Roth), so I'll probably just ride it out.

Assume it's because all it takes is one iPhone release that fails to excite and they can lose 80% of their profits.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 25, 2016, 09:56:51 AM
Just looking at the fundamentals, Apple should be closer to ~$130.  The P/E is just way too low, given its balance sheet. 

It's been this way for years.  I wouldn't buy on this alone.  That being said I'm already in the red on AAPL (went heavy in my Roth), so I'll probably just ride it out.

Assume it's because all it takes is one iPhone release that fails to excite and they can lose 80% of their profits.
When has that happened?

Every time a new one releases, even the S "incremental update", sales go crazy.

And I don't even think a mediocre release will result in an 80% value drop.

Too many Apple fans... but you never know... Blackberry used to be the hotness.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on September 09, 2016, 11:19:31 AM
Now down 300+  >:D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 09, 2016, 11:20:01 AM
Now down 300+  >:D

#timber
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on September 09, 2016, 11:28:55 AM
I have some $ on the sidelines waiting to buy if we see a couple thousand point drop in the next few months.  I have it set to DCA for now but I'll lump sum it in if we fall far enough.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 09, 2016, 11:54:43 AM
I just checked my 401k from 2011 until now.

61% return... but I have it in one fund... should I diversify?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on September 11, 2016, 09:38:17 PM
Asian market down significantly, looks like sellout continued.

Also the Samsung stock is on big discount right now....
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: spootieho on September 12, 2016, 02:18:32 PM
Asian market down significantly, looks like sellout continued.

Also the Samsung stock is on big discount right now....
It looks pretty bad for Samsung on the mobile market...  Exploding phones

It's illegal to bring Galaxy Note 7's on airplanes right now.  Everyone that bought one is supposed to return it and wait a month for a new phone. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on September 12, 2016, 02:33:23 PM
Asian market down significantly, looks like sellout continued.

Also the Samsung stock is on big discount right now....
It looks pretty bad for Samsung on the mobile market...  Exploding phones

It's illegal to bring Galaxy Note 7's on airplanes right now.  Everyone that bought one is supposed to return it and wait a month for a new phone.

Stuff happens. What about the Takata air bag recall?

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2016/05/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-takata-air-bag-recall/index.htm
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: spootieho on September 13, 2016, 12:49:20 AM
Yeah, Samsung surely will recover.  Just explaining why their stock is dropping.  This current blunder will be expensive.  They might also help Apple's boring launch.

Samsung Note Explodes: Setting Jeep on fire.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/09/12/exploding-samsung-note-7-sets-jeep-on-fire-how-to-check-your-pho/

Samsung Note Explodes: Burns 6 year old boy
http://gizmodo.com/samsung-galaxy-note-7-explodes-burns-6-year-old-repor-1786523345?rev=1473686258702&utm_campaign=socialflow_gizmodo_facebook&utm_source=gizmodo_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

Samsung asks customers to power off their samsung note 7's and keep them turned off until they replace them
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/09/11/samsung-urges-consumers-turn-off-note-7-phones/90225514/

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on September 13, 2016, 07:12:48 AM
IHO, I underestimated the impact of money printing and how it can inflate the DOW and I don't know of anyone who predicted that it would get this high.

I do know that this is not sustainable.   

It's been over 3 years that the Dow has been over 15k (much more over 13k), what is "sustainable"?

It's been at 18k for about 2 months, are we going to see 19k? Or is it going to drop back below 13k to satisfy the "cyclical" trend of 95-02 and 02-07?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 17, 2016, 01:13:57 PM

Up $18 in the aftermarket $119.50....nice!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 27, 2016, 08:25:38 PM
Amazon down $50.00
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on November 08, 2016, 07:23:25 PM
Dow future plunge over 500 points because Trump is currently ahead, what?!

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on November 08, 2016, 08:41:13 PM
Buy the selloff... we are going much higher
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on November 08, 2016, 09:00:01 PM
I bought QQQ Dec30 110 puts this morning... Tomorrow will be a happy day.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 09, 2016, 01:14:24 AM
Buy the selloff... we are going much higher

Yup, Brexit 2.0 all over again.  We are already way off the lows in after hours.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on November 09, 2016, 08:14:29 AM
So predictable...when everybody says one thing...do the exact opposite...up 73, not down 700!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 09, 2016, 08:20:42 AM
Trexit!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on November 09, 2016, 02:17:08 PM
I bought QQQ Dec30 110 puts this morning... Tomorrow will be a happy day.

Oh my gosh  I was busy today and didn't get a chance to check on this.  I got killed!  Oh well, I was using it as a hedge so all the other accounts are up this option will be pretty worthless.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on November 10, 2016, 07:45:39 AM
Every FANG stock is taking a beating while the market moved higher...think Silicon Valley is expecting some pay back?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 08, 2016, 10:19:01 AM
https://youtu.be/pbU_lCjIGvw
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on December 09, 2016, 09:44:20 AM
Yes President Trump, we're all in! :)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cn5l6sgVMAIz0Ac.jpg)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 10, 2016, 06:16:28 PM
Sketchers stock drops!
I placed a limit order on sketchers. Ha
(I like to roll the dice)

Do you like the product?  No matter how low a stock price is, I'm not buying it unless I respect the company and its products.  My wife bought a pair of Sketcher walking shoes before our Europe trip and ended up hating them.  Their quality sucks and the service in their stores is even worse.

Sketchers is starting to pay off for me.  ;)
(My initial thoughts buying this stock, the price point is reasonable for average person. When the price dropped previously, that was a good entry point. If a person asks me do I where sketchers? My answer will be no.)


Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 10, 2016, 06:18:17 PM
Yes President Trump, we're all in! :)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cn5l6sgVMAIz0Ac.jpg)

I want to see what happens after the Fed meeting coming up.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 13, 2016, 09:42:57 PM
So when is it hitting 20k? 25k?

Is Panda still holding out for 8k? :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 21, 2016, 01:56:56 PM
So close today....
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 22, 2016, 08:11:22 AM
That 20k is pure show. Technically means nada but it makes good press. Don't get caught short we are going much higher next year.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: peppy on December 22, 2016, 09:19:20 AM
That 20k is pure show. Technically means nada but it makes good press. Don't get caught short we are going much higher next year.

Lock in your predictions for 12/31/2017 ...

I'l go first with 21400
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 22, 2016, 10:02:45 AM
23,500 boyyyyyyy!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 22, 2016, 10:48:43 AM
For 12/31/16... 20,888!

For 12/31/17... 18,888. :(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 22, 2016, 11:02:18 AM
I'm kind of skeptical. Get ready for a trade war.
Trump hires Navarro, the author of Death by China.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: peppy on December 22, 2016, 12:03:52 PM
I'm kind of skeptical. Get ready for a trade war.
Trump hires Navarro, the author of Death by China.

What's your prediction? Lock it in.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on December 22, 2016, 12:05:51 PM
12/31/17: 22,000!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 22, 2016, 01:28:31 PM
23,456 on 12/31/17
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 22, 2016, 01:47:47 PM
I'm kind of skeptical. Get ready for a trade war.
Trump hires Navarro, the author of Death by China.

What's your prediction? Lock it in.

I can't until I get a better understanding of the situation. Almost Everybody is wondering about the import tax.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on December 23, 2016, 09:06:19 AM
All Aboard!!! The train is leaving the station!!.  Now that the rate hike is done we are set up to break out of a long term basing pattern.  Barring an unforeseen terrorist strike the next major sustained move will be UP

With just 4 trading days left and again barring some unforeseen event I'll pocket that 14% + return for the year thank you.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 23, 2016, 10:15:04 AM
Got close again.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 23, 2016, 11:09:47 AM
Got close again.


Are you day trading?  :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 23, 2016, 04:16:27 PM
All Aboard!!! The train is leaving the station!!.  Now that the rate hike is done we are set up to break out of a long term basing pattern.  Barring an unforeseen terrorist strike the next major sustained move will be UP

With just 4 trading days left and again barring some unforeseen event I'll pocket that 14% + return for the year thank you.

Not bad, I'm about 3x that trading VIX options (not for the faint of heart trading).  Made 15%+ since the election alone.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on December 28, 2016, 02:57:04 PM
Sell and run tomorrow (but keep my FANGs)?  What's everyone's strategy for year end?  A whole year of active trading netted me about $1000.  That's a lot of hours for a measly $1000.

Been selling VIX calls the past few weeks.  I'll start mixing it up in 2016 with selling both VIX calls and puts.

Do you mostly have either calls or puts open most of the time?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 28, 2016, 04:44:47 PM
Sell and run tomorrow (but keep my FANGs)?  What's everyone's strategy for year end?  A whole year of active trading netted me about $1000.  That's a lot of hours for a measly $1000.

Been selling VIX calls the past few weeks.  I'll start mixing it up in 2016 with selling both VIX calls and puts.

Do you mostly have either calls or puts open most of the time?

It really depends on the front week that I'm trading.  For example, I've mostly sold VIX calls since the election but I've also sold VIX puts too.  Because volatility is so low and year-end is coming I've lightened up my positions but I'm selling more VIX puts last week and this week.  Because I sell VIX options, I use stops and/or straddles to hedge and protect myself.  I'm fine with taking losses because the losses can be made up and then some.  The more volatility the more than I can and have made in profits.  I also love the favorable tax treatment for gains on VIX options (60% of the gain, even if short term, is traded as long term cap gains for tax purposes). 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on December 28, 2016, 05:00:52 PM
I really need to do something to soak up some of my wash sale carry forwards. I've been so busy the last couple years I haven't had time to trade anything but I've been meaning to look into your vix strategies.

I think you trade weeklies?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 28, 2016, 07:05:43 PM
I really need to do something to soak up some of my wash sale carry forwards. I've been so busy the last couple years I haven't had time to trade anything but I've been meaning to look into your vix strategies.

I think you trade weeklies?

Yeah, I trade the front weekly options ever since they became available last Oct.  Sometimes I'll trade the next week before the front week's options have expired to start setting my new positions.  My trading would fall into the risky speculative income generation category so definitely not for the faint of heart but good for excess at-risk capital for some.  I taught one of my friends to trade vix last year and he's make a tidy profit this year, we would text each other on ideas and timing.  Him and I have talked about opening some kind of fund in the future once he's got more time trading under his belt. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on December 28, 2016, 07:58:13 PM
If you open up a fund u have to be registered as a broker. Got a friend going to the pokey for having a fund and not being registered.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 28, 2016, 08:04:54 PM
If you open up a fund u have to be registered as a broker. Got a friend going to the pokey for having a fund and not being registered.

Interesting
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 28, 2016, 09:11:40 PM
If you open up a fund u have to be registered as a broker. Got a friend going to the pokey for having a fund and not being registered.

How much time did your friend get?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on December 28, 2016, 09:32:47 PM
He's being sentenced end of next month.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on December 28, 2016, 09:59:12 PM
He's being sentenced end of next month.

So he didn't negotiate a plea deal?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on December 28, 2016, 11:37:48 PM
He did but the judge still has to impose a formal sentence and it's not "guaranteed". The sentencing has been postponed a few times.

He had more "issues" than just not being registered. He probably wouldn't have been caught for just not being registered if it weren't for his other escapades.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on December 29, 2016, 12:20:49 PM
If you open up a fund u have to be registered as a broker. Got a friend going to the pokey for having a fund and not being registered.



Yeah, there's a lot that I'd have to learn about the process and rules when it comes to opening up a fund like that.  I would want to trade my money in the same fund too.  A part of me wonders if it'll be worth the headache of setting it all up and dealing with investors since the kind of trading that I do can be very volatile and is high risk but high reward.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 04, 2017, 01:28:36 PM
from my January letter...

So what lies ahead?  As I told many of you during the year. Presidents inherit the business cycle they inherit.  If there is recession he gets the blame. If expansion he tries to take credit.  This market was going to rise no matter who won. The influence of an executive policy comes in the form of magnitude.  He can throw water on it and slow it down, or gas on it and increase the reaction.  This President is throwing gas in the form of lower taxes and regulations.  I feel this is net positive for our markets this year and they will again advance.  Interest rates will rise at a faster pace than most think but fear not,  that is a good thing overall.  Normalized rates are a sign of a healthy economy.  I’m off the precious metals positions and I feel energy will find stability here.  This year will only strengthen domestically and I still shy from foreign investments. Keep it here in dollars and the good old US of A.  Most surprises this year may be on the positive side. Again, I caveat this letter that our direction can be altered by any number of unexpected events (major terrorist strike) but all things being equal I think we are in for a well-deserved run.  What makes me so optimistic?  Most of you know what a contrarian I am and look at the mood of most on Wall Street..

Despite Trump euphoria, Wall Street's 2017 forecast is the most bearish annual outlook in 12 years

Even after post-election animal spirits boosted the S&P 500 to a near double-digit annual return in 2016, Wall Street's soothsayers — equity strategists — are the most bearish on equities for 2017 as they have been about a year since 2005.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/streets-2017-forecast-is-the-most-bearish-annual-outlook-in-12-years.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/streets-2017-forecast-is-the-most-bearish-annual-outlook-in-12-years.html)

That’s got me fired up.  Whatever happens this should be fun.  2017 is upon us, Let’s enjoy life.

Best wishes in this new year!!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 27, 2017, 11:45:11 AM
So it's stayed over 20k for the last few days... no dead cat jump yet.

What's next? 25k?

Where is Panda? :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on February 21, 2017, 01:33:21 PM
This market is crazy, takes a break only for a day or 2 then heads straight back up - rich are definitely getting richer riding this wave... I'm profiting but not nearly as much as the billionaires. 

morekaos, well said in early January, contrarian view wins again.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on February 21, 2017, 01:35:37 PM
This market is crazy, takes a break only for a day or 2 then heads straight back up - rich are definitely getting richer riding this wave... I'm profiting but not nearly as much as the billionaires. 

morekaos, well said in early January, contrarian view wins again.

Me want some of them billions. How do I do it?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on February 21, 2017, 02:05:30 PM
This market is crazy, takes a break only for a day or 2 then heads straight back up - rich are definitely getting richer riding this wave... I'm profiting but not nearly as much as the billionaires. 

morekaos, well said in early January, contrarian view wins again.

Me want some of them billions. How do I do it?

http://www.investopedia.com/university/warren-buffett-biography/warren-buffett-success-story.asp
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on February 23, 2017, 11:37:28 AM
(http://www.gotknowhow.com/quotes/image/shawshank-redemption-geology-is-the-study-of-pressure-and-time-thats-all)

same goes for money and time.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 23, 2017, 11:54:19 AM
Why does this thread even exist?

The Dow is just a joke.

:)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 23, 2017, 12:59:58 PM
Well, the general public (and the news) still watches this index and if you want to use something more accurate watch the S&P.  That index is up 5.58% this year and the Dow is up 5.29% so far, so in actuality they are pretty close in telling us what the markets are up to so far this year.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 25, 2017, 07:45:56 AM
Never bet against this man... more Winning!!

Warren Buffett says investment gains will continue to be 'substantial,' applauds 'miraculous' US economy


http://www.cnbc.com/id/104304879 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/104304879)

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 01, 2017, 08:02:25 AM
Can Tim explain to me what is happening to the Dow? He seemed to disappear after he called it a joke.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on March 01, 2017, 08:13:43 AM
Can Tim explain to me what is happening to the Dow? He seemed to disappear after he called it a joke.

That's the thing with these doom and gloomers.  They have people every day on CNBC saying market is overbought and due for correction. 

Eventually they'll be right and say "see I warned you", but they'll forget to mention that we would have been better off to avoid their advice all together because we had a 15% increase since they called the 10% correction that finally happened.

I predict the following will eventually happen:
- 10% Dow correction
- Large earthquake
- Large downpour in SoCal that breaks a NorCal dam
- Peace in the Middle East
- SoCal's meat man to rekindle the texting relationship

All these things will eventually happen and I'll say "See I told you so"
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 01, 2017, 08:20:09 AM
A broken clock is right twice a day! Don't worry there's lots of tens...lots and lots and lots of them.

https://youtu.be/wAadouGkwMQ
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 01, 2017, 01:37:00 PM
Never bet against this man... more Winning!!

Warren Buffett says investment gains will continue to be 'substantial,' applauds 'miraculous' US economy


http://www.cnbc.com/id/104304879 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/104304879)



So then the Buffett is applauding Trump?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 01, 2017, 04:19:37 PM
Buffets pragmatic, it's not personal, it's just business.

Warren Buffett on President-elect Trump: 'He deserves everybody's respect
'

"I support any president of the United States. It's very important that the American people coalesce behind the president," Buffett told CNN's Poppy Harlow in an exclusive

http://cnnmon.ie/2fX4BnV (http://cnnmon.ie/2fX4BnV)

https://youtu.be/Bo7zkd0kRS4
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 03, 2017, 07:54:43 AM
The public are sheep...and sheep get slaughtered.

As US stocks hit new records, investor pessimism is soaring to post-election highs

Pessimism among individual investors has hit its highest level since U.S. President Donald Trump secured election victory in November, according to a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

The weekly survey of U.S. investors found that they expect stock prices to fall over the next six months with AAII's bearish indicator rising by over 3 points to 35.6 percent.

Pessimism among investors has not hit this high since October 19 last year, it said, whereas bullish sentiment edged lower and neutral sentiment was found to be relatively unchanged.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/03/as-us-stocks-hit-new-records-investor-pessimism-is-soaring-to-post-election-highs.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/03/as-us-stocks-hit-new-records-investor-pessimism-is-soaring-to-post-election-highs.html)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 15, 2017, 11:06:20 AM
Rates up...markets higher.

Fed raises rates at March meeting

For the second time in three months, the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate a quarter point amid rising confidence that the economy is poised for more robust growth.

The move, widely anticipated by financial markets, takes the overnight funds rate to a target range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent and sets the Fed on a likely path of regular hikes ahead.

With a higher rate already baked into the market, investors were looking for clues about just how aggressive the central bank will be down the road. The market currently expects the Fed to hike two more times this year, which was in line with the bank's projections from December 2016.

The Federal Open Market Committee – the central bank's policy-setting group – took the target rate to near-zero during the financial crisis and left it there until beginning a path toward a more normalized level in December 2015.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/15/fed-raises-rates-at-march-meeting.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/15/fed-raises-rates-at-march-meeting.html)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on April 25, 2017, 01:10:33 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on April 25, 2017, 01:57:01 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

SHOP
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 25, 2017, 03:19:37 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on April 28, 2017, 10:29:50 AM
Prior to the election, the consensus was that the stock market would crash if Trump were elected.  I don't think a single media outlet predicted gains for stocks, and many were predicting an outright recession.

Fast forward to today, and US stocks have had their strongest performance as measured from Election Day to Day 100 of a Presidency since Franklin Roosevelt.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on April 28, 2017, 10:43:05 AM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.

I need to do what USC does.

Almost 5 figures is a lot of buffets.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on April 28, 2017, 02:44:51 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.

Making five figures is nice, but how large was the wager?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on April 28, 2017, 03:06:19 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.

Making five figures is nice, but how large was the wager?

And if they weren't covered, you could lose more than  the money you got selling the calls. 

I can't stomach that type of risk, with my luck I'd sell calls for nonsense political event and then some global event would happen and the market pluges 1,500 points and I owe $300k.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Rtlguru on April 28, 2017, 03:29:44 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.

Making five figures is nice, but how large was the wager?

And if they weren't covered, you could lose more than  the money you got selling the calls. 

I can't stomach that type of risk, with my luck I'd sell calls for nonsense political event and then some global event would happen and the market pluges 1,500 points and I owe $300k.

USC is selling naked options on volatility. Definitely not covered  :)

You mean sell puts.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 29, 2017, 03:04:25 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.

Making five figures is nice, but how large was the wager?

About 400-500 vix options contracts or about $200k of margin.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 29, 2017, 03:05:35 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.

Making five figures is nice, but how large was the wager?

And if they weren't covered, you could lose more than  the money you got selling the calls. 

I can't stomach that type of risk, with my luck I'd sell calls for nonsense political event and then some global event would happen and the market pluges 1,500 points and I owe $300k.

USC is selling naked options on volatility. Definitely not covered  :)

You mean sell puts.

Yes sir, I'm selling naked vix options (sold all vix calls prior to that French election) and been doing that for the past 8+ years with profits every single year.  One of the reasons why I trade VIX options is because of the favorable tax treatment of the games (60% of all gains are long-term capital gains no matter how long the trade is).  It's nice to be playing with house money.  ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 29, 2017, 03:08:42 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.

Making five figures is nice, but how large was the wager?

And if they weren't covered, you could lose more than  the money you got selling the calls. 

I can't stomach that type of risk, with my luck I'd sell calls for nonsense political event and then some global event would happen and the market pluges 1,500 points and I owe $300k.

The trading that I do is definitely not for the faint of heart, but it takes risks to make profits.  Biggest one day loss I had was about $60k back in Aug 2015 with that little Chinese currency thing but I made that back in less than 6 weeks after the loss.  I use stops to not go bankrupt. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on April 30, 2017, 09:30:49 AM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.

Making five figures is nice, but how large was the wager?

About 400-500 vix options contracts or about $200k of margin.

So last Friday, VIX closed at 14.66, on Monday it opened at 11.76.  You're selling a call so I'm assuming that was good for you, correct?   

If that move would have been the opposite way, say closed at 11.76 and opened at 14.66  or say moved from 14.66 to 17.60 what would your loss have been?  No stop will cut that since it's close/open gap.  I'm not trying to be critical, just trying to understand overall exposure on a derivative.  Or are the VIX options more buffered from the near term volatility?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on April 30, 2017, 11:40:46 PM
Thought about going all cash late last week with North Korean tension, Russians trying to run Syria, etc... guess my laziness paid off, markets have shrugged off the geopolitical issues and are heading right back up.  I say 'lesson learned' but I'll probably want to get out again once the DOW hits  25k...

Made almost 5 figures selling volatility calls for the non-event French election, easy money.  We'll get the same thing in a week and a half when the French runoff election happens on May 7th.

Making five figures is nice, but how large was the wager?

About 400-500 vix options contracts or about $200k of margin.

So last Friday, VIX closed at 14.66, on Monday it opened at 11.76.  You're selling a call so I'm assuming that was good for you, correct?   

If that move would have been the opposite way, say closed at 11.76 and opened at 14.66  or say moved from 14.66 to 17.60 what would your loss have been?  No stop will cut that since it's close/open gap.  I'm not trying to be critical, just trying to understand overall exposure on a derivative.  Or are the VIX options more buffered from the near term volatility?

I sold $20+ vix calls so I still would have made the same money if the vix settled at 20 or lower (it settled at 10.50).  With the time decay because I'm trading the front week options that expire before open on Wednesday, if the vix would have gone to 17.60 on Monday at open it'd be doubtful that any of my stops would have triggered given I sold 20-24 vix calls.  I guess you can say that I trade with a cushion to protect myself.  The vix calls (and even puts) premiums were pumped up a lot on Thursday/Friday so it gave me the ability to collect decent premiums on the vix calls on the 20-24 strike prices.  With my trading strategy it is important to keep trading and collecting premiums so that I have more than enough to cover any losses than I may take (very similar to what an insurance company operates). 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on May 04, 2017, 11:07:15 AM
TSLA under 300 again, maybe time to load up... will keep an eye.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 04, 2017, 11:42:15 AM
TSLA under 300 again, maybe time to load up... will keep an eye.

I'll stick to what I know best...the VIX options.  ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on June 16, 2017, 07:32:34 AM
Amazon buys Wholefoods......
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on June 16, 2017, 08:25:02 AM
Amazon buys Wholefoods......

Crazy. When retail dies Amazon be like ...pschyeeeeee
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: GH on June 16, 2017, 08:33:23 AM
Amazon buys Wholefoods......

Crazy. When retail dies Amazon be like ...pschyeeeeee

I would understand Kroger and other grocers getting scared -- but it even scare the big retailers who is not really on the same market segment as Whole Food like Costco (down 6%), Walmart (down 5%), Target (down 9%)  ---- scary

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on June 16, 2017, 09:39:41 AM
Whole-azon?

Ama-whole?

"Alexa... I need some overpriced groceries."
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 18, 2017, 11:43:38 AM
Buying $85.49

It's good for long term.

Netflix and chill

Yikes!!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 01, 2017, 10:15:21 AM
That 20k is pure show. Technically means nada but it makes good press. Don't get caught short we are going much higher next year.

Stay long my friend.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 01, 2017, 10:40:49 AM
22k?

Panda!!!! What happened????
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: OCLuvr on August 01, 2017, 02:47:11 PM
What about the annual Aug/Sept drop?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: OCLuvr on August 02, 2017, 07:01:43 AM
@morekaos,
What about annual Aug/Sept drop ritual?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 02, 2017, 08:22:20 AM
Broke that trend last year when the market busted above overhead resistance in July. Market supported there and never broke down in August of that year.  At that point, it was over, and off to the races.  Anything that breaks hard out of a two year basing pattern is not going down, it hasn't since.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on August 02, 2017, 08:47:09 AM
All the market euphoria, does it feels a little like 1999 or 2005?

Or this time is different?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 02, 2017, 08:56:58 AM
Not even close.  Most people are not in on it like in 1999.  Back then I had 4 clients interviewing to become brokers.  Discover brokerage had commercials about kids owning helicopters and tow truck drivers owning countries from their personal trading profits...not even close.

https://youtu.be/1lnwkXb3B-k?list=FLsCxEh3wil6h-5Km78B4Ldg
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 02, 2017, 12:08:59 PM
The consensus of every financial reporter one year ago was that if Trump somehow managed to get elected it would cause the market to instantly crash.  So far after 9 months, the Dow is up 9%.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on August 02, 2017, 12:25:32 PM
The consensus of every financial reporter one year ago was that if Trump somehow managed to get elected it would cause the market to instantly crash.  So far after 9 months, the Dow is up 9%.

really?  I mostly read otherwise.  Unless you're just on CNBC.. they really hate Trump. 

Most articles I read is that he will push the dow hire just based on tax reform and scaling back Dodd Frank.  I'm more worried about the the downside after it's all done. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 02, 2017, 01:12:21 PM
I agree with LL. I can tell you it was almost universal that there would be a Trump dump.

Trump Setting Up Repeat Of ‘29 Market Crash: Nobel-Winning Economist

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/19/robert-shiller-donald-trump-stock-market-crash_n_14268676.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/19/robert-shiller-donald-trump-stock-market-crash_n_14268676.html)

What Happens to the
Markets if Donald Trump
Wins?


The conventional wisdom is that, right off the bat, the stock market would fall
precipitously. Simon Johnson, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist,
posited that Mr. Trump’s presidency would “likely cause the stock market to crash
and plunge the world into recession.” He predicted that Mr. Trump’s “anti-trade
policies would cause a sharp slowdown, much like the British are experiencing” after
their vote to exit the European Union.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/business/dealbook/what-happens-to-the-markets-if-donald-trump-wins.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/business/dealbook/what-happens-to-the-markets-if-donald-trump-wins.html)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on August 02, 2017, 01:15:19 PM
TSLA just popped
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 02, 2017, 02:39:19 PM
I doubt that you could find any MSM articles from last year predicting a higher stock market if Trump were elected.  It wasn't until the large pop right after the election that the MSM financial reporters changed their tune.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 03, 2017, 07:21:58 AM
i like to get in and get out fast, i dont like over night positions.

Throwback TWQS!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 03, 2017, 10:18:26 AM
I was going back and looking at the first few pages of this thread and guess which stocks did the best out of:

AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX, DIS, AMZN, BBY

I was actually surprised.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on August 03, 2017, 10:59:14 AM
I was going back and looking at the first few pages of this thread and guess which stocks did the best out of:

AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX, DIS, AMZN, BBY

I was actually surprised.

The start of the thread was 2011, by the 2nd page we're at 2013.  The results stay about the same, however I don't really see those in the first few pages.  I see a reference to wishing had bought in May 2013 for GOOGL and NFLX but the rest are even later references but loathe the impact to AAPL.

If you'd have bought those three on the start of the thread Jan 2011 and were looking at it in May 2013, you spent a year and a half with a 50% loser, spent a year and a half flip flopping between -20%/20% on another and watched the third double in that period to then start giving half the gain back. 

How's your stomach handle that ride?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 03, 2017, 11:36:44 AM
I guess I was looking at 2015 posts... this thread is almost 1000 posts long so the posts I were referring to fall on page 4 (I have my settings at 50 posts per page).

We talked about AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, TGT and DIS. BBY was also mentioned and NFLX has its own thread.

Out of those, TGT was the loser, which surprised me. I don't mind the short term peaks/valleys because I would hold for the long haul but in just 2 years, some of those had some nice gains.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 17, 2017, 12:51:58 PM
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.
Whoah... easy... I respect Panda's knowledge and want to hear WHY he was wrong... not THAT he was wrong.

When people take a stance and give you good reasons why (or sometimes not), when it doesn't turn out that way, it's educational to hear why they think things happened the way they happened.

I did not think the Dow would hit 15k either... but I didn't really see any reason why it would not hit 13k.

For example, Liar Loan doesn't think this run-up is sustainable and he explained the "why"... and he will explain the "why not" if it doesn't work out how he expected because that's how he is... and I learn from that.

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market and I don't do option trading like USC so I have very little knowledge of the ins and outs of the market, so I ask these questions because I like to hear from those who know more than I do.

Don't get so "hung up" on my thirst for knowledge. :)

Wow... Look at this blast from the past.  Everybody debating if the Dow would make it to 15k.  LOL..  I guess we were all wrong to some extent.

I have to admit, I was confident the Dow would hit 14k because that was the prior resistance level in late-2007, but I never thought it would climb this high before another crash set in.  I've participated in many of the gains, but also have risk mitigation measures in place, which have caused me to jump into bonds a couple of times along the way.  Anyway, may as well continue to ride this gravy train until the party stops.  Just make sure you're not the bagholder!

This is a chart I saw yesterday of the NASDAQ in constant 2000 dollars:

(https://assets.realclear.com/images/42/425640_5_.png)

Based on this measure the NASDAQ is almost as overpriced as during the dotcom bubble.  (Although certain things have changed since then, like having actual earnings!)

Another popular measure, the Shiller PE10, puts the S&P 500 right at 1929 levels:

(https://s3.amazonaws.com/gurufocus_charts/1502998549059.png)

So there really is no debating that the market is overpriced now.  There are dozens of ways to measure stock market valuation, and they are all saying the same thing: Prices are historically high.

Anecdotally, Buffet has tons of cash sitting on the sidelines because he can't find compelling investment opportunities.  Other value investors are echoing the same story.

That means it's only a matter of time.  tic, tic, tic...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on August 17, 2017, 01:05:33 PM
Buffet is going into financials. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 17, 2017, 01:08:59 PM
Just the market breathing. Can't inhale all the time.  The media will point all sorts of fingers, all of which don't matter. I'll buy the pullback, hope it drops some more.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 17, 2017, 01:11:29 PM
Buffet is going into financials.


Buffet has been in financials...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on August 17, 2017, 01:24:19 PM
Buffet is going into financials.


Buffet has been in financials...

he's buying more.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 17, 2017, 01:26:12 PM
Buffet is going into financials.


Buffet has been in financials...

he's buying more.

Ye$
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 17, 2017, 01:27:01 PM
Just the market breathing. Can't inhale all the time.  The media will point all sorts of fingers, all of which don't matter. I'll buy the pullback, hope it drops some more.

+1
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on August 17, 2017, 01:28:35 PM
Just the market breathing. Can't inhale all the time.  The media will point all sorts of fingers, all of which don't matter. I'll buy the pullback, hope it drops some more.

+1

USC.. you still play the VIX?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 17, 2017, 01:28:42 PM
Oh going back to this, you know who a big winner was?

BBY

I think most of us didn't think they would even be around anymore.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on August 17, 2017, 01:29:49 PM
Oh going back to this, you know who a big winner was?

BBY

I think most of us didn't think they would even be around anymore.

that's a nice 5 year chart.  I still don't get how they are in business today.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 17, 2017, 01:32:49 PM
Oh going back to this, you know who a big winner was?

BBY

I think most of us didn't think they would even be around anymore.

that's a nice 5 year chart.  I still don't get how they are in business today.

I know... and TGT went nowhere... bizarro.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 17, 2017, 01:44:56 PM
Oh going back to this, you know who a big winner was?

BBY

I think most of us didn't think they would even be around anymore.

I know, right?  I had always assumed Amazon would put them under, but recently I find myself shopping there for some things.  We bought a fridge earlier this year at Best Buy and it was a very good experience.  They do an online price search when you are checking out to make sure you are paying the lowest price on the item.  They will match the prices of competitors.  I also came close to buying a GoPro at Best Buy a couple months back, but ended up ordering a Sony Cam online instead (a GoPro knockoff, but better).  Still, I was impressed by how knowledgeable the sales guys have been both times I visited.  Also, I read they were buying back old laptops recently for $75 if you bought a Samsung notebook.  There are 3 laptops around my house I was thinking of taking in, but I didn't get around to it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 17, 2017, 01:51:01 PM
I'm glad BB is still around. I go there a few times a month to look at tech... occasionally buy BDs or accessories and also look at appliances.

Stuff that I may return I usually buy at BB so I have that safety net as Costco doesn't carry as wide a variety of electronics.

I guess being the only brick & mortar helps... that's probably why Barnes and Noble is still around.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 17, 2017, 02:01:18 PM
I guess being the only brick & mortar helps... that's probably why Barnes and Noble is still around.

That makes sense except when I go to B&N their prices are still shockingly high.  It becomes really apparent when you browse their movies.  A lot of times, I'll buy something at the Starbucks inside but not any merchandise.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on August 17, 2017, 03:04:07 PM
Just the market breathing. Can't inhale all the time.  The media will point all sorts of fingers, all of which don't matter. I'll buy the pullback, hope it drops some more.

+1

USC.. you still play the VIX?

Yup, way of the money VIX calls (over $20) and some lower puts. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 18, 2017, 10:00:46 AM
Let's do some simple math...Standard pullback from a high (not a bear market) is around 10%.  22,100  x .1 = 2210 Dow points of roughly 19,900.  Even a decent 5% pullback would still take us to around 21,000 even.  500 here and 500 there means nothing.  The media is breathlessly trying to blaming small moves on Trump...whatever.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on August 18, 2017, 10:07:04 AM
Let's do some simple math...Standard pullback from a high (not a bear market) is around 10%.  22,100  x .1 = 2210 Dow points of roughly 19,900.  Even a decent 5% pullback would still take us to around 21,000 even.  500 here and 500 there means nothing.  The media is breathlessly trying blaming small moves on Trump...whatever.

I don't blame him for this.. but I blame him in that the market could be that much higher if he just focused on the economy.  People are confident when he is working on tax policies, etc.  This mess just holds us back.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 18, 2017, 10:11:44 AM
I agree, in this emotionally charged environment a normal market move is magnified and fingers point in order to make a political statement.  Unfortunate twisting of reality.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 10, 2017, 09:48:30 AM
23,500 boyyyyyyy!

Within striking distance.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 10, 2017, 02:10:10 PM
23,500 boyyyyyyy!

Within striking distance.

Yup, I've been making a killing trading the vix this year for my friend and myself.  Might pick up the new GT3.  :D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on October 10, 2017, 03:19:36 PM
23,500 boyyyyyyy!

Within striking distance.

Yup, I've been making a killing trading the vix this year for my friend and myself.  Might pick up the new GT3.  :D

Keep the cars you have and get Alta Vista single story with view...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 10, 2017, 07:33:53 PM
23,500 boyyyyyyy!

Within striking distance.

Yup, I've been making a killing trading the vix this year for my friend and myself.  Might pick up the new GT3.  :D

Keep the cars you have and get Alta Vista single story with view...

I'd have to sell every one of my cars except for my Prius to even remotely think about the single story Alta Vista.  No point of having a 4-car garage with one beater car.  haha
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on October 11, 2017, 07:10:50 AM
Don't be house rich and car poor.

Although the original usage is "house poor".
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 11, 2017, 11:24:18 PM
Don't be house rich and car poor.

Although the original usage is "house poor".

Haha  My cars are a lot more liquid than any home with almost no selling cost so I don't mind keeping a few cool cars around.  I don't think I need anything bigger than I have right now until it's time to settle down for good, although I could really use a 4-car garage home. :P
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 18, 2017, 09:27:29 AM
23,500 boyyyyyyy!

Within striking distance.

Perhaps me and Martin were too pessimistic in our predictions. ;)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 18, 2017, 02:27:15 PM
23,500 boyyyyyyy!

Within striking distance.

Perhaps me and Martin were too pessimistic in our predictions. ;)

Yeah, if I really went for it I could have made about double what I made but I always like playing with room for error since I'm trading risky stuff.  I don't mind taking losses by stopping myself out as long as I live to trade another day.  :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on October 18, 2017, 02:47:52 PM
Setting aside values and market directions - curious how many home purchases have been made within the TI community where a portion of funds to close came from stock sales.

Are most home buyers keeping $$$ in the markets seeking gains, while using other resources (gifts, family funds) for the down payments on their homes?

So far this year I've had only one buyer liquidate their stock holdings to buy property. There are plenty of FCB's and lots of overseas cash coming in for buyers down payments when financing, but not sure if stock sales is widely done as a source of purchase money at these elevated prices.

Curious so I thought to throw it out there.

My .02c

SGIP
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: paperboyNC on October 18, 2017, 03:07:05 PM
Setting aside values and market directions - curious how many home purchases have been made within the TI community where a portion of funds to close came from stock sales.

Are most home buyers keeping $$$ in the markets seeking gains, while using other resources (gifts, family funds) for the down payments on their homes?

So far this year I've had only one buyer liquidate their stock holdings to buy property. There are plenty of FCB's and lots of overseas cash coming in for buyers down payments when financing, but not sure if stock sales is widely done as a source of purchase money at these elevated prices.

Curious so I thought to throw it out there.

My .02c

SGIP

I liquidated all of my non-retirement stocks/mutual funds to buy my home years ago. I have IRA accounts that I can actively trade and still don't have any non-retirement money in the stock market :(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 18, 2017, 03:38:40 PM
Soy - you have to be, in it to win it.


Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on October 18, 2017, 03:55:15 PM
Eyephone - Agreed.

We've had a product that allows a higher net worth customer to borrow against a percentage of the stocks that are actively managed by us. The loan proceeds can be used as down payment on a purchase, leveraging assets instead of liquidating. It's niche-y but fits some investors needs.

Not sure if there's a big pool or not of home buyers considering something like this. As mentioned, only 1 buyer this year who liquidated stock to purchase their home.

My .02c

SGIP
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on October 18, 2017, 04:44:02 PM
I've thought about cashing in most of my non-retirement investments and buying a rental but not sure it's worth it - housing market is high but then again so is stock market, so maybe its a wash, just seems like rental will be a better guarantee of income stream later.  Can't bring myself to cash out all my non-retirement investments though, would need to liquidate 80ish% for my down, too sad.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on October 20, 2017, 11:55:40 AM
Sketchers stock drops!
I placed a limit order on sketchers. Ha
(I like to roll the dice)

Do you like the product?  No matter how low a stock price is, I'm not buying it unless I respect the company and its products.  My wife bought a pair of Sketcher walking shoes before our Europe trip and ended up hating them.  Their quality sucks and the service in their stores is even worse.

Sketchers is starting to pay off for me.  ;)
(My initial thoughts buying this stock, the price point is reasonable for average person. When the price dropped previously, that was a good entry point. If a person asks me do I where sketchers? My answer will be no.)

I just sold my Sketchers position. It jumped 38% today.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on October 20, 2017, 12:13:44 PM
Great trade Eye
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on November 03, 2017, 10:53:49 AM
23,500 boyyyyyyy!

Within striking distance.

Perhaps me and Martin were too pessimistic in our predictions. ;)

Always under promise and over deliver....two months early but I'll take it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 03, 2017, 11:17:43 AM
So why is this not a bubble?

Or is it?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: jmoney74 on November 03, 2017, 11:19:11 AM
So why is this not a bubble?

Or is it?

wait for the tax cuts.. then we will push up to bubble arena.  The republicans won't fail us on that.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 03, 2017, 11:34:10 AM
So why is this not a bubble?

Or is it?

Stocks are not in a bubble in the sense that a euphoria completely detached from reality does not yet exist among investors.  Stocks are overpriced though.  The reason is that the bond market is the most expensive it's ever been.  Most people are not factoring in what a 1% increase in rates would do to the economy.

I feel like a broken record because this argument has been made repeatedly for the past 5 years, but this time it looks like rates are really set to rise.  It could spell trouble.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 03, 2017, 11:43:06 AM
Stocks are not in a bubble in the sense that a euphoria completely detached from reality does not yet exist among investors.  Stocks are overpriced though.  The reason is that the bond market is the most expensive it's ever been.  Most people are not factoring in what a 1% increase in rates would do to the economy.

Sure, but back 6 years ago, or even 4 years ago, we thought 13k-15k was high and bubbe-licious. We are at 23.5k... no one predicted over 20k and just a year ago, there were doubters it would break 20k, other than MoreKaos and USCTrojan, who I think were partly joking (well... maybe not MoreKaos, he did predict Trump).
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 03, 2017, 11:51:49 AM
High prices do not equal a bubble.  Prices have to go parabolic on the chart, which they have not done yet.  (Look at a chart of year 2000 Nasdaq, year 2005 real estate, or year 2011 gold as examples.)

Besides the predictions of anonymous posters on lightly trafficked forums don't constitute an indicator of anything.   :D

Lastly, we also thought rates were bottoming in 2013 because they spiked rapidly during the second half of the year after Bernanke's taper talk.  Had rates gone to 6% or higher, stocks would not be where they are today.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 03, 2017, 12:18:39 PM
Here is what a bubble looks like:

NASDAQ Returns

1995 - 40%
1996 - 23%
1997 - 22%
1998 - 40%
1999 - 86%

Cumulative 5 year return - 441% !!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 15, 2017, 12:12:42 PM
Quote
Bill Gross: The stock market is like 'an old-age retirement community'

The stock market's best days are likely behind it as central banks around the world take away the high levels of stimulus they've provided over the past decade, Janus Henderson portfolio manager Bill Gross said Wednesday.

"I'm not supporting a bear market, but sort of a market where you move into an old-age retirement community where the pace of activity and prices behave more maturely," he told CNBC's "Power Lunch" program. "So I think sort of the halcyon days are over."

The culprit, he said, is the Fed and its global cohorts finally pulling back on stimulus after years of bargain-basement interest rates and trillions in money printing. With that support fading, investors are going to have to get used to lower returns, he said.

"I think double-digit increases are over, simply because the credit cycle itself is pulling back," Gross said. "The Fed is raising interest rates, the Fed is reducing its balance sheet, the ECB is reducing its balance sheet by half and ultimately raising interest rates. These are slight negatives that argue against a continuing bull market."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/15/bill-gross-the-stock-market-is-like-an-old-age-retirement-community.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on November 15, 2017, 01:02:03 PM
Not shooting the messenger here buuuuttt I used to follow Gross very closely in the 90's to early 2000's...then he fell off a cliff and now I think he just might be crazy. ;)

'Bond King' Gross writes an ode to his dead cat, Bob

On Thursday, Gross dedicated the first half of his widely followed Investment Outlook letter to the cat and headlined it “Bob.”

“Treasure your pets and all living things. Eventually we all stop living,” said Gross, who will celebrate his 70th birthday this month.

The cat, a female despite the name, died last week. The pet had been with Gross and his wife for 14 years.

“Aside from sleeping, Bob loved nothing more than to follow me from room to room making sure I was OK,” wrote Gross. “It got to be a little much at times, especially when entering and exiting the shower.”

Gross said Bob’s “obsession carried over to the TV, sensing when I was on CNBC and paying apt attention no less. I often asked her about her recommendations for pet food stocks, and she frequently responded - one meow for ‘no,’ two meows for a ‘you bet.’ She was less certain about
interest rates, but then it never hurt to ask.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-investing-pimco-gross/bond-king-gross-writes-an-ode-to-his-dead-cat-bob-idUSBREA321A420140403 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-investing-pimco-gross/bond-king-gross-writes-an-ode-to-his-dead-cat-bob-idUSBREA321A420140403)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 15, 2017, 01:05:03 PM
I agree he's not the most credible, and a lot of his calls on bonds have been subpar in the era of QE, but he's still worth listening to because his position aligns closely with mine in this one instance... LOL.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: lnc on December 15, 2017, 01:01:11 PM
We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.

And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.  :)

Lock in your predictions for 12/31/2017 ...

I'l go first with 21400

23,500 boyyyyyyy!

12/31/17: 22,000!

23,456 on 12/31/17

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 15, 2017, 01:15:19 PM
Let's do another one for 6/30/18 and 12/31/18!

:)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 04, 2018, 12:47:14 PM
I'm on the board...Dow 30,000!!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 04, 2018, 01:06:18 PM
So it's stayed over 20k for the last few days... no dead cat jump yet.

What's next? 25k?

Where is Panda? :)

Apparently....yes!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 04, 2018, 01:17:30 PM
I should start a bitcoin thread. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 04, 2018, 02:31:36 PM
I should start a bitcoin thread. :)

I already did.

http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,15960.0.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 08, 2018, 11:37:57 AM
from my January letter...

So what lies ahead?  As I told many of you during the year. Presidents inherit the business cycle they inherit.  If there is recession he gets the blame. If expansion he tries to take credit.  This market was going to rise no matter who won. The influence of an executive policy comes in the form of magnitude.  He can throw water on it and slow it down, or gas on it and increase the reaction.  This President is throwing gas in the form of lower taxes and regulations.  I feel this is net positive for our markets this year and they will again advance.  Interest rates will rise at a faster pace than most think but fear not,  that is a good thing overall.  Normalized rates are a sign of a healthy economy.  I’m off the precious metals positions and I feel energy will find stability here.  This year will only strengthen domestically and I still shy from foreign investments. Keep it here in dollars and the good old US of A.  Most surprises this year may be on the positive side. Again, I caveat this letter that our direction can be altered by any number of unexpected events (major terrorist strike) but all things being equal I think we are in for a well-deserved run.  What makes me so optimistic?  Most of you know what a contrarian I am and look at the mood of most on Wall Street..

Despite Trump euphoria, Wall Street's 2017 forecast is the most bearish annual outlook in 12 years

Even after post-election animal spirits boosted the S&P 500 to a near double-digit annual return in 2016, Wall Street's soothsayers — equity strategists — are the most bearish on equities for 2017 as they have been about a year since 2005.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/streets-2017-forecast-is-the-most-bearish-annual-outlook-in-12-years.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/streets-2017-forecast-is-the-most-bearish-annual-outlook-in-12-years.html)

That’s got me fired up.  Whatever happens this should be fun.  2017 is upon us, Let’s enjoy life.

Best wishes in this new year!!!

From my 2018 client letter


Soooooo…how did we do?  I think if you take one look at your statements this month the answer is pretty clear.  Market up 28%, hmmm, I guess the bearish mood of wall street was wrong (again).  Tax reform and de-regulation have thrown gas on an already expanding economy and the results are astonishing but not surprising.  Interest rates rose, with 3 hikes from the Fed but bonds still managed to eke out single digit gains.  Precious metals and oil both saw stability and gains.  Even foreign investments saw substantial returns this year.  Most every asset class did well but one…cash, CD and money market investors who sat on the sidelines and once again netted less than 1% on their money.  I think I kept my batting average at around .800 .  What a great year it was!!! “Getting off the fence” in 2016 has sure paid off, would you not agree?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on January 08, 2018, 01:04:26 PM
from my January letter...

So what lies ahead?  As I told many of you during the year. Presidents inherit the business cycle they inherit.  If there is recession he gets the blame. If expansion he tries to take credit.  This market was going to rise no matter who won. The influence of an executive policy comes in the form of magnitude.  He can throw water on it and slow it down, or gas on it and increase the reaction.  This President is throwing gas in the form of lower taxes and regulations.  I feel this is net positive for our markets this year and they will again advance.  Interest rates will rise at a faster pace than most think but fear not,  that is a good thing overall.  Normalized rates are a sign of a healthy economy.  I’m off the precious metals positions and I feel energy will find stability here.  This year will only strengthen domestically and I still shy from foreign investments. Keep it here in dollars and the good old US of A.  Most surprises this year may be on the positive side. Again, I caveat this letter that our direction can be altered by any number of unexpected events (major terrorist strike) but all things being equal I think we are in for a well-deserved run.  What makes me so optimistic?  Most of you know what a contrarian I am and look at the mood of most on Wall Street..

Despite Trump euphoria, Wall Street's 2017 forecast is the most bearish annual outlook in 12 years

Even after post-election animal spirits boosted the S&P 500 to a near double-digit annual return in 2016, Wall Street's soothsayers — equity strategists — are the most bearish on equities for 2017 as they have been about a year since 2005.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/streets-2017-forecast-is-the-most-bearish-annual-outlook-in-12-years.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/streets-2017-forecast-is-the-most-bearish-annual-outlook-in-12-years.html)

That’s got me fired up.  Whatever happens this should be fun.  2017 is upon us, Let’s enjoy life.

Best wishes in this new year!!!

From my 2018 client letter


Soooooo…how did we do?  I think if you take one look at your statements this month the answer is pretty clear.  Market up 28%, hmmm, I guess the bearish mood of wall street was wrong (again).  Tax reform and de-regulation have thrown gas on an already expanding economy and the results are astonishing but not surprising.  Interest rates rose, with 3 hikes from the Fed but bonds still managed to eke out single digit gains.  Precious metals and oil both saw stability and gains.  Even foreign investments saw substantial returns this year.  Most every asset class did well but one…cash, CD and money market investors who sat on the sidelines and once again netted less than 1% on their money.  I think I kept my batting average at around .800 .  What a great year it was!!! “Getting off the fence” in 2016 has sure paid off, would you not agree?

Russia hacked our economy!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 08, 2018, 01:44:35 PM
Drn Ruskies!!

https://youtu.be/9ynY5NvYsZY
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 12, 2018, 03:11:26 PM
So is the Dow going to hit 26k on Tuesday?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on January 16, 2018, 09:45:42 AM
So is the Dow going to hit 26k on Tuesday?

And the answer is yes!  It took only 7 days to go from 25k to 26k.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on January 17, 2018, 12:13:17 PM
At this rate, 27k by Friday :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 17, 2018, 12:25:38 PM
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on January 17, 2018, 01:31:17 PM
I also hate volatile markets (in either direction), but over the years I've learned to stop trading and continue investing.  Sorry but buy and hold is not dead and it always wins in the long term.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 17, 2018, 02:40:05 PM
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.

This is a great market to make money selling vix options...the more volatility the bigger the option premiums.  :D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 17, 2018, 03:17:39 PM
There’s only one problem, it only goes up.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: iacrenter on January 17, 2018, 03:27:23 PM
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.

This is a great market to make money selling vix options...the more volatility the bigger the option premiums.  :D

USC,

I've seen you post many times about your success in VIX options. How difficult was this for you to learn? Do you have any suggestions on resources to learn more?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 17, 2018, 04:16:16 PM
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.

This is a great market to make money selling vix options...the more volatility the bigger the option premiums.  :D

USC,

I've seen you post many times about your success in VIX options. How difficult was this for you to learn? Do you have any suggestions on resources to learn more?

I've done a lot of reading online over 10 years ago, mainly from googling vix and how it works.  Best knowledge I picked up was actually trading the vix options first hand and taking my lumps along the way which were great learning lessons.  Read up on the vix and see if it's even something you want to get into.  One of the big advantages of VIX profits is that 60% of all gains are treated as long-term cap gains even if the trade is done for a minute.  There's a lot of different things you can do with the VIX...buy options, sell naked options, straddles, strangles, iron condors, wedges, calendar spreads, etc.  If you know what you are doing you can make money trading in any kind of market...up, down, or sideways.  I've been trading these things since 2007 and even with the huge VIX swings in 2008-2010 I managed to book gains in those years.  Each trade is a new learning experience for me, I never stop learning.  So I'd say read up and then dip your toes in the market to see if something for you.  My VIX trading is only for "at-risk" capital due to the nature of the instrument.  Hope that helps.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 01, 2018, 11:11:23 AM
Atlanta Fed sees U.S. economy expanding at 4.2 percent in first quarter

https://youtu.be/RP8uhXuS2n8

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-atlantafed/atlanta-fed-sees-u-s-economy-expanding-at-4-2-percent-in-first-quarter-idUSKBN1FI1VU (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-atlantafed/atlanta-fed-sees-u-s-economy-expanding-at-4-2-percent-in-first-quarter-idUSKBN1FI1VU)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 01, 2018, 11:36:16 AM
Atlanta Fed sees U.S. economy expanding at 4.2 percent in first quarter

https://youtu.be/RP8uhXuS2n8

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-atlantafed/atlanta-fed-sees-u-s-economy-expanding-at-4-2-percent-in-first-quarter-idUSKBN1FI1VU (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-atlantafed/atlanta-fed-sees-u-s-economy-expanding-at-4-2-percent-in-first-quarter-idUSKBN1FI1VU)

I also think the unexpectedly low 4th quarter will get adjusted up "as more data comes in".
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 05, 2018, 04:18:05 PM
Buy the sell off. This is a welcomed blow off that clears out the weak hands. 10% plus would be healthy longer term. Nothing to fundamentally worry me.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 06, 2018, 10:48:39 AM
Maybe lightning will strike twice?

23,500 boyyyyyyy!

#cyclical
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 06, 2018, 10:52:52 AM
This is bumping its feet right on support, Should hold so I don't think that 23500 will be seen in this move on a closing basis.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 06, 2018, 12:10:59 PM
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.

...But I LOVE markets like this!!!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 07, 2018, 08:30:22 AM
https://youtu.be/xbE8E1ez97M
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 16, 2018, 06:05:36 PM
Maybe lightning will strike twice?

23,500 boyyyyyyy!

#cyclical

23,860 on 2/8. Close.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on February 18, 2018, 08:26:04 AM
https://youtu.be/0mDgcAlOaH8
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 02, 2018, 08:15:40 AM
This is bumping its feet right on support, Should hold so I don't think that 23500 will be seen in this move on a closing basis.

Even I am wary of a Smoot-Hawley type of tariffs, but I kinda like the chaos this brings...as I said, clears the decks of the weaker hands. Buy the dip, 23,500 should hold on a closing basis. if it does, that's a double bottom and its off to the races.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 09, 2018, 03:04:46 PM
Stunning February Jobs Report Growth of 313,000 Crushes Expectations…
Quote
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the U.S. MAGAnomic economy added 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations.  In addition to the stunning job growth in February, previous months’ counts were revised much higher: December was revised upward from 160,000 to 175,000 (+9.38%); January saw a massive boost from 200,000 to 239,000 (+19.5%).  The three-month average is now 242,000.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had previously predicted payroll growth of 200,000.  The result of 313,000 stunned prior economic pontificators, and is 56% higher than expected.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/03/09/stunning-february-jobs-report-growth-of-313000-crushes-expectations/#more-146707

(https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/february-jobs-report-2.jpg?w=640&h=325)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 15, 2018, 08:26:41 AM
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.

...But I LOVE markets like this!!!

Dow 25,039. My kinda market, nice trading range after a good 10% pullback from the highs.  Orderly sideways basing pattern, narrowing to form a pennant.  Breakout is eminent, but to which side?  My money is on a break to the upside.  Get on the Train, higher highs will be made before the end of the year.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on March 15, 2018, 10:20:17 AM
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.

...But I LOVE markets like this!!!

Dow 25,039. My kinda market, nice trading range after a good 10% pullback from the highs.  Orderly sideways basing pattern, narrowing to form a pennant.  Breakout is eminent, but to which side?  My money is on a break to the upside.  Get on the Train, higher highs will be made before the end of the year.

Calling 27,000 EoY
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: OCLuvr on March 22, 2018, 10:45:03 AM
Are we still bullish--after these tariffs?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 22, 2018, 10:48:18 AM
No Problemo, still within basing pattern trading range.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Halos on March 23, 2018, 12:24:16 AM
It's all going down....no more bull run, sorry.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 23, 2018, 10:13:15 AM
OH Puleeeeze! The Dow is down 3% year to date.  This is a big boy game. If you don't have the pants to play, you shouldn't try and wear them.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Halos on March 23, 2018, 07:07:40 PM
OH Puleeeeze! The Dow is down 3% year to date.  This is a big boy game. If you don't have the pants to play, you shouldn't try and wear them.

I sold in early January...I guess you thought we were going higher in the new paradigm, but I'm sure deep down inside you knew it was too good to be true. Too many issues surrounding stocks for it to go higher...Libor blowing out, rising rates, facebook stock headed into the toilet.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: pisa on March 23, 2018, 08:25:42 PM
OH Puleeeeze! The Dow is down 3% year to date.  This is a big boy game. If you don't have the pants to play, you shouldn't try and wear them.
How much money do you run total? Can you post your verified returns?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Halos on March 23, 2018, 08:40:49 PM
Good luck traders...now is the time to make money. I'm out.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on March 23, 2018, 08:46:19 PM
One thing I learned after making many beginners' mistakes was -- it is not about P/E ratios or any other such nonsense - that is just what Wall Street types use to justify the volumes of junk research they  generate to keep getting paid. 

It is about liquidity in the market and global capital flows. This is why the Fed is doing matters (LIBOR rising) .  This is why the tax cuts matter.  This is why US dollar weakness or strength matters.   

Rising liquidity = rising stock market regardless of what b/s you hear about valuation or P/E ratios.

Trump's stupid trade and tariff war has just thrown a big wrench in this liquidity pipeline
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Halos on March 23, 2018, 09:40:53 PM
One thing I learned after making many beginners' mistakes was -- it is not about P/E ratios or any other such nonsense - that is just what Wall Street types use to justify the volumes of junk research they  generate to keep getting paid. 

It is about liquidity in the market and global capital flows. This is why the Fed is doing matters (LIBOR rising) .  This is why the tax cuts matter.  This is why US dollar weakness or strength matters.   

Rising liquidity = rising stock market regardless of what b/s you hear about valuation or P/E ratios.

Trump's stupid trade and tariff war has just thrown a big wrench in this liquidity pipeline

The trade war is a symptom of the sickness, not the cause. You need to expand outwards a little more  :o
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on March 23, 2018, 10:02:29 PM
One thing I learned after making many beginners' mistakes was -- it is not about P/E ratios or any other such nonsense - that is just what Wall Street types use to justify the volumes of junk research they  generate to keep getting paid. 

It is about liquidity in the market and global capital flows. This is why the Fed is doing matters (LIBOR rising) .  This is why the tax cuts matter.  This is why US dollar weakness or strength matters.   

Rising liquidity = rising stock market regardless of what b/s you hear about valuation or P/E ratios.

Trump's stupid trade and tariff war has just thrown a big wrench in this liquidity pipeline

The trade war is a symptom of the sickness, not the cause. You need to expand outwards a little more  :o

Pray, tell  - what that may be ?

The goal is to make money , not wax philosophical.  I dont care what happened 30 years ago or 20 years ago, all that is sunk cost.  This is why economics is not really a science in my opinion.  It explains everything in hindsight not looking forward, which  is what you need to make money in the markets.  Whatever the reasons for whatever happening , it ultimately reflects in charts and prices which are hard data and not theory. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Halos on March 23, 2018, 10:37:46 PM
One thing I learned after making many beginners' mistakes was -- it is not about P/E ratios or any other such nonsense - that is just what Wall Street types use to justify the volumes of junk research they  generate to keep getting paid. 

It is about liquidity in the market and global capital flows. This is why the Fed is doing matters (LIBOR rising) .  This is why the tax cuts matter.  This is why US dollar weakness or strength matters.   

Rising liquidity = rising stock market regardless of what b/s you hear about valuation or P/E ratios.

Trump's stupid trade and tariff war has just thrown a big wrench in this liquidity pipeline

The trade war is a symptom of the sickness, not the cause. You need to expand outwards a little more  :o

Pray, tell  - what that may be ?

The goal is to make money , not wax philosophical.  I dont care what happened 30 years ago or 20 years ago, all that is sunk cost.  This is why economics is not really a science in my opinion.  It explains everything in hindsight not looking forward, which  is what you need to make money in the markets.  Whatever the reasons for whatever happening , it ultimately reflects in charts and prices which are hard data and not theory.

Prey tell... is that we're at the end of a credit super-cycle. All done...game over. Move over to crypto trading if you want deep liquidity and a clean slate.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 24, 2018, 12:29:33 PM
We’ll be just fine.

Here's how much the stock market is still up since Donald Trump took office

President Trump still has a large cushion before the Dow's post-inauguration gains disappear.

The Dow closed at 19,827.25 on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2017, which means it has about 3,700 points to go before the Trump rally gains are gone.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/heres-how-much-the-stock-market-is-still-up-since-donald-trump-took-office.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/heres-how-much-the-stock-market-is-still-up-since-donald-trump-took-office.html)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 26, 2018, 08:12:22 AM
OH Puleeeeze! The Dow is down 3% year to date.  This is a big boy game. If you don't have the pants to play, you shouldn't try and wear them.

I sold in early January...I guess you thought we were going higher in the new paradigm, but I'm sure deep down inside you knew it was too good to be true. Too many issues surrounding stocks for it to go higher...Libor blowing out, rising rates, facebook stock headed into the toilet.

Not at all. I have been running money for longer than some of you have been alive. Heard its over in 1987 after the crash, 1992 as the Savings and Loan financial market crash, the 3% rise of interest rates in 1994, the 1995 Commercial and residential real estate crash, the 1997 Long Term Capital collapse and the eventual total collapse of ALL world currencies, the 2000-2002 dot-com, 9/11 crash, the second 2005 real estate and mortgage banking collapse. I've seen it all.  Many managers today have NEVER experienced a rising rate cycle.  I have.  It is never different this time.  These markets will move higher by the end of this year, there is little that will stop the cycle. We will be fine....again.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 26, 2018, 01:26:35 PM
This is bumping its feet right on support, Should hold so I don't think that 23500 will be seen in this move on a closing basis.

Even I am wary of a Smoot-Hawley type of tariffs, but I kinda like the chaos this brings...as I said, clears the decks of the weaker hands. Buy the dip, 23,500 should hold on a closing basis. if it does, that's a double bottom and its off to the races.

https://youtu.be/ONBAMgTC4dw
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on March 31, 2018, 08:08:09 AM
One thing I learned after making many beginners' mistakes was -- it is not about P/E ratios or any other such nonsense - that is just what Wall Street types use to justify the volumes of junk research they  generate to keep getting paid. 

It is about liquidity in the market and global capital flows. This is why the Fed is doing matters (LIBOR rising) .  This is why the tax cuts matter.  This is why US dollar weakness or strength matters.   

Rising liquidity = rising stock market regardless of what b/s you hear about valuation or P/E ratios.

Trump's stupid trade and tariff war has just thrown a big wrench in this liquidity pipeline

The trade war is a symptom of the sickness, not the cause. You need to expand outwards a little more  :o

Pray, tell  - what that may be ?

The goal is to make money , not wax philosophical.  I dont care what happened 30 years ago or 20 years ago, all that is sunk cost.  This is why economics is not really a science in my opinion.  It explains everything in hindsight not looking forward, which  is what you need to make money in the markets.  Whatever the reasons for whatever happening , it ultimately reflects in charts and prices which are hard data and not theory.

Prey tell... is that we're at the end of a credit super-cycle. All done...game over. Move over to crypto trading if you want deep liquidity and a clean slate.

You know I could have given you benefit of doubt on many crypto supportive arguments here , but you chcose to pick the weakest one — liquidity

Have you seen the transaction costs (bid ask spread) on crypto . Another negative esp for Bitcoin is he amount of large holders (from legacy days) that can totally upend the market should they decide to exit .

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 02, 2018, 02:07:33 PM
Like a rock!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on April 02, 2018, 03:41:55 PM
Like a rock!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IocCC1-jeTY
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 04, 2018, 12:19:42 PM
I want every gun we have to fire on that market....

https://youtu.be/A84zYTvk5u0
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 05, 2018, 09:31:35 AM
https://youtu.be/LAf0QnLFS7Q
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on April 06, 2018, 09:34:47 AM
Do we get any supply of video clips on the days the Dow sells off   ?   
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 06, 2018, 10:08:42 AM
https://youtu.be/NSlHDsCDXG0
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on April 06, 2018, 10:40:53 AM
The Dow is off just under 400 points.  OMG!  As a percentage its less than 2% and historically is daily trading range.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on April 06, 2018, 10:48:22 AM
I know but its fun to watch all the hysteria and flaming heads freak out.  It's a job perk.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on April 06, 2018, 10:58:13 AM
The Dow is off just under 400 points.  OMG!  As a percentage its less than 2% and historically is daily trading range.

That's exactly my point ... so if the market is up less than 2% on a given day , no need to be cheer leading either !

People with political blinders on will still deny that market is down 9% from its peak in January when everyone was high fiving each other on success of Trump tax cuts  : )

That being said, bullish channel is still intact despite today's selloff . We are still hovering above 200-day S&P moving average of 2593 , but only barely so .  I guess everyone is waiting for a Kudlow appearance on CNBC but may not happen this time ...



Kudlow just learned of Trump’s latest tariffs move last night

04/06/2018 12:59 PM EDT

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears to have been blindsided by President Donald Trump’s threat to impose an additional $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports.

Asked by reporters Friday when he first learned of the president’s decision to instruct his top trade official to consider the new tariffs, Kudlow took a lengthy pause before responding: “Last evening.” The White House statement announcing the move went out shortly after 6:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday.

The former CNBC contributor and Reagan administration official has spent the past few days as a self-described “happy warrior” for Trump, who on Tuesday announced plans to hike tariffs by 25 percent on Chinese manufacturing imports and other products worth around $50 billion.

In a counterpunch on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s commerce department announced plans to level $50 billion in retaliatory tariffs on 106 imported American goods including aircraft, cars, chemicals and soybeans.

Kudlow, who early last month penned an op-ed warning against steep tariffs, has aggressively defended the president’s proposals to cable news anchors and gaggles of reporters outside the White House, attempting to calm markets and placate conservatives turned off by the seemingly anti-free trade maneuvers.

“This is not a trade war,” Kudlow said Friday. “This process, it may include tariffs at the end of the day. It may also not. It may be solved by negotiation.”



Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on May 15, 2018, 09:31:35 PM
OH Puleeeeze! The Dow is down 3% year to date.  This is a big boy game. If you don't have the pants to play, you shouldn't try and wear them.

I sold in early January...I guess you thought we were going higher in the new paradigm, but I'm sure deep down inside you knew it was too good to be true. Too many issues surrounding stocks for it to go higher...Libor blowing out, rising rates, facebook stock headed into the toilet.

Not at all. I have been running money for longer than some of you have been alive. Heard its over in 1987 after the crash, 1992 as the Savings and Loan financial market crash, the 3% rise of interest rates in 1994, the 1995 Commercial and residential real estate crash, the 1997 Long Term Capital collapse and the eventual total collapse of ALL world currencies, the 2000-2002 dot-com, 9/11 crash, the second 2005 real estate and mortgage banking collapse. I've seen it all.  Many managers today have NEVER experienced a rising rate cycle.  I have.  It is never different this time.  These markets will move higher by the end of this year, there is little that will stop the cycle. We will be fine....again.


Been saying this about inexperienced managers for around 2 years now...might be why the rate markets have been sluggish to react to the strong economic news, they have never had to.

Rising rates could be problematic because the typical money manager working today has never dealt with them before

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield rose to its highest level since 2011.
The median tenure of an active equity manager is eight years, according to Fundstrat, citing figures gathered from Morningstar.
"There are a lot of people that haven't been through many things in this youthful industry," notes Timothy Parton, a portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/us-rates-surge-and-most-portfolio-managers-dont-know-what-to-do.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/us-rates-surge-and-most-portfolio-managers-dont-know-what-to-do.html)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on June 07, 2018, 01:05:46 AM
Lately all the financial websites are saying market is overvalued, crash is eminent, 30% drop is near... makes me feel a lot more comfortable about doubling down on my investments, all time highs for Dow and S&P may come sooner than I thought.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on July 26, 2018, 07:26:55 AM
We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.

And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.  :)

Lock in your predictions for 12/31/2017 ...

I'l go first with 21400

23,500 boyyyyyyy!

12/31/17: 22,000!

23,456 on 12/31/17



Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on July 26, 2018, 11:15:00 AM
We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.

And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.  :)

Lock in your predictions for 12/31/2017 ...

I'l go first with 21400

23,500 boyyyyyyy!

12/31/17: 22,000!

23,456 on 12/31/17



Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?

up we go to 27k

I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.

...But I LOVE markets like this!!!

Dow 25,039. My kinda market, nice trading range after a good 10% pullback from the highs.  Orderly sideways basing pattern, narrowing to form a pennant.  Breakout is eminent, but to which side?  My money is on a break to the upside.  Get on the Train, higher highs will be made before the end of the year.

Calling 27,000 EoY
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: inv0ke-epipen on July 26, 2018, 11:30:26 AM
HODL
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on July 27, 2018, 10:40:11 AM
Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?

Policy wise, a lot of moves have been done to increase profitability.  GDP just came in at 4.1 percent.  But the expansion is long in the tooth.  Businesses are claiming to have problems hiring the talent they need, what they really mean is they have problems hiring the cheap young talent at the price they want. 

From a market standpoint, at least the Dow viewpoint, it kind of consolidated in 2016 with back to back ten percent corrections and recoveries.  Most of this year could be considered a consolidation with nearly a 10% correction.  We drop off the peak back in early January so we've been moving laterally here for six months.  If we consolidate up and break through 26,617 yea, 30K, if inflation turns ugly on the employment heat and we punch below 23,500, maybe down to 21,000. Overall I'd say about 80% we will be still here around 25,500. 

All that goes out the window though with November..  If blue wave happens, tankville.  If a Red wave happens, I also think tankville.  If Dem majority happens in the Senate to create a gridlock situation, JIMHO, tankville.  A status quo terse, slim Republican majority keeps the pro-business agenda moving forward without going off the rails into  IMHO, whackadoodle land.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 27, 2018, 10:45:19 AM
Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?

Policy wise, a lot of moves have been done to increase profitability.  GDP just came in at 4.1 percent.  But the expansion is long in the tooth.  Businesses are claiming to have problems hiring the talent they need, what they really mean is they have problems hiring the cheap young talent at the price they want. 

From a market standpoint, at least the Dow viewpoint, it kind of consolidated in 2016 with back to back ten percent corrections and recoveries.  Most of this year could be considered a consolidation with nearly a 10% correction.  We drop off the peak back in early January so we've been moving laterally here for six months.  If we consolidate up and break through 26,617 yea, 30K, if inflation turns ugly on the employment heat and we punch below 23,500, maybe down to 21,000. Overall I'd say about 80% we will be still here around 25,500. 

All that goes out the window though with November..  If blue wave happens, tankville.  If a Red wave happens, I also think tankville.  If Dem majority happens in the Senate to create a gridlock situation, JIMHO, tankville.  A status quo terse, slim Republican majority keeps the pro-business agenda moving forward without going off the rails into  IMHO, whackadoodle land.

GM says new wave of Trump tariffs could force job cuts.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/06/29/gm-says-new-wave-of-tariffs-could-force-us-job-cuts.html
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on July 27, 2018, 11:26:26 AM

GM says new wave of Trump tariffs could force job cuts.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/06/29/gm-says-new-wave-of-tariffs-could-force-us-job-cuts.html


That's old news.

Quote from: Washington Post
President Donald Trump and European leaders pulled back from the brink of a trade war over autos Wednesday and agreed to open talks to tear down trade barriers between the United States and the European Union.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/trump-european-union-leaders-pull-back-from-trade-war/2018/07/25/7d5c0638-9068-11e8-ae59-01880eac5f1d_story.html?utm_term=.b7323e9d97bf
[/quote]
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on July 27, 2018, 11:30:09 AM
That’s Europe. How about China?

My outlook is like playing chess vs average person playing connect 4.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 17, 2018, 11:31:34 AM
Since this is the OG Dow thread and we have quite a few predictions in here:

We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.

And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.  :)

Lock in your predictions for 12/31/2017 ...

I'l go first with 21400

23,500 boyyyyyyy!

12/31/17: 22,000!

23,456 on 12/31/17



Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?

So for 2017, most of us under predicted. It looks like for 2018, we have over predicted.

So what is 2019 going to look like?

Anyone want to make any mid-year and end-year calls for 2019?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on December 18, 2018, 06:52:41 AM
To be fair , nearly every Wall Street strategist under predicted 2017 so TI forecasters record is no worse there.

Human Tendency is to add a small average anchored around 5 percent plus minus for next year

This applies for not just stocks - but also interest rates

We are all victims of “Recency Bias” and “availability bias” meaning affected by what’s happening now and whats most visible to us ... everything else doesn’t process .
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on January 02, 2019, 01:54:17 PM
TSLA under 300 again, maybe time to load up... will keep an eye.

Almost back under $300 again.  TSLA buying under $300 and selling above $340 has worked well (multiple times) if you're patient enough. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on January 02, 2019, 02:05:47 PM
TSLA under 300 again, maybe time to load up... will keep an eye.

Almost back under $300 again.  TSLA buying under $300 and selling above $340 has worked well (multiple times) if you're patient enough.

Dow going down tomorrow after Apple news.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on January 02, 2019, 02:08:11 PM
Since this is the OG Dow thread and we have quite a few predictions in here:

We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.

And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.  :)

Lock in your predictions for 12/31/2017 ...

I'l go first with 21400

23,500 boyyyyyyy!

12/31/17: 22,000!

23,456 on 12/31/17



Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?

So for 2017, most of us under predicted. It looks like for 2018, we have over predicted.

So what is 2019 going to look like?

Anyone want to make any mid-year and end-year calls for 2019?

No midyear or end of year quotes for me but a new low in the sp between 2200-2300 followed by a rally to at least 2800, maybe close to or exceeding old highs, then a dive down again.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on January 02, 2019, 02:58:53 PM
TSLA under 300 again, maybe time to load up... will keep an eye.

Almost back under $300 again.  TSLA buying under $300 and selling above $340 has worked well (multiple times) if you're patient enough.

Dow going down tomorrow after Apple news.

Ya tomorrow will be a bad day for indexes.  AAPL is in DOW, NASDAQ and S&P500.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 03, 2019, 07:56:03 AM
I blame the fall of AAPL on them removing the home button... worst UI/UX change ever. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: spootieho on January 03, 2019, 08:13:12 AM
Also, apple priced themselves out and they got rid of smaller models.  Steve Jobs was very against getting rid of the smaller models.

Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on January 05, 2019, 02:12:08 AM
TSLA under 300 again, maybe time to load up... will keep an eye.

Almost back under $300 again.  TSLA buying under $300 and selling above $340 has worked well (multiple times) if you're patient enough. 

Almost halfway to 340 already.  Wash, rinse, repeat = $
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on January 19, 2019, 02:57:16 AM
TSLA under 300 again, maybe time to load up... will keep an eye.

Almost back under $300 again.  TSLA buying under $300 and selling above $340 has worked well (multiple times) if you're patient enough. 

Almost halfway to 340 already.  Wash, rinse, repeat = $

Wow it worked again, this is literally the 4th time I’ve done this.  Buying again next week then will be out near $340 and wait for the drop.  Thanks Elon.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 29, 2019, 12:29:15 PM
So back up to 24kish.

Where is the Dow going for 2019?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 29, 2019, 01:25:27 PM
At least a 15% gain so minimum of 27000.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 29, 2019, 01:36:13 PM
I like that morekaos does not shy away from making predictions.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 29, 2019, 05:11:38 PM
I like that morekaos does not shy away from making predictions.

They are, by the way, exactly that..prediction. They are NOT investment advice. I post this here bc I enjoy the debate. Don’t take anything said here and try to apply it to your portfolio. Don’t ever take financial advice from an anonymous source and act on it without understanding what your doing.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on January 30, 2019, 12:55:24 AM
What he really means is don’t hold him accountable  when his predictions are wrong and often have no basis in realty or how asset prices really move. You just have to look at what happened in 2018.

Anyways no surprise there as it is the job of every overpaid financial advisor - heads I win , tails you lose ...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on January 30, 2019, 07:40:23 AM
Pay for good advice and heads you win and tails you also win. My people do, 2018 was a wonderful year for them, we will do just as well if not better in 19.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 05, 2019, 07:29:58 AM
Dow is back up, even went over 26k briefly

Was December a dead cat bounce? Maybe it was seasonal. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on March 05, 2019, 12:00:35 PM
...or it was exactly what it was..meaningless, headline driven selling.  If you owned you should have held, if you had any balls you bought it, if you sold out because you got scared and are still in cash, your a fool.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on March 05, 2019, 12:57:57 PM
...or it was exactly what it was..meaningless, headline driven selling.  If you owned you should have held, if you had any balls you bought it, if you sold out because you got scared and are still in cash, your a fool.

Yeah there really is no where else to invest. Never bothered taking out our 401ks. Our balances reached all time highs in August/September of 2018, tanked through December and have rebounded to all time highs again now (part of it does include our contributions plus employer match from October 2018 through February 2019).

I always have a substantial cash pile since I don’t like to be 100% in the market between 401ks and personal savings. I use the cash pile for trading opportunities. With that said, if I was 100% in the market I’d probably be better of than with just trading.

Right now personal savings are just near 100% cash. After the Dow getting back to 26k not sure how much upside is left. I guess I can see it hitting 27-27.5k which would be about another 4-6%.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on March 05, 2019, 03:28:53 PM
Yeah market is probably range bound even with the China tariffs getting resolved, mainly because earnings will be flattish this year.  If the property market continues to soften, I may look at picking up another rental.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Compressed-Village on March 05, 2019, 08:56:07 PM
Yeah market is probably range bound even with the China tariffs getting resolved, mainly because earnings will be flattish this year.  If the property market continues to soften, I may look at picking up another rental.

Sounds like a solid strategy. I agree.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on March 06, 2019, 06:53:28 AM
I always have a substantial cash pile...

It's time to visit Banco De Qwerty for some backboard taped hundies. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on March 06, 2019, 08:38:23 AM
I am still happy with my 50/40/10 strategy...50% stocks, 40% bonds, 10% cash.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on March 06, 2019, 08:54:07 AM
What about realestate?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on March 06, 2019, 08:54:46 AM
What about realestate?

I don't have enough money to invest in a second property and don't care for the risk/hassle.  My primary home is my RE investment.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Mety on March 06, 2019, 10:21:32 AM
Is it dumb to not to invest in any of stocks or bonds?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on March 06, 2019, 10:25:04 AM
Is it dumb to not to invest in any of stocks or bonds?

I don't think it's dumb but you should diversify your portfolio.  Stocks are probably the best long-term investment return wise while bonds are the safest. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on May 03, 2019, 08:12:18 AM
Now this is news that we all should rejoice in, MAGA or anti-MAGA.  This is a win all the way around...lets all hold hands.

U.S. creates 263,000 jobs in April, unemployment falls to 3.6%

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The economy generated a stronger than expected 263,000 new jobs in April, helping to drive down the unemployment rate to a 49-year low of 3.6%. The increase in new jobs easily topped the 217,000 MarketWatch forecast. The jobless rate slid from 3.8% in March to hit the lowest level since December 1969. The average wage paid to American workers rose 6 cents, or 0.2%, to $27.77 an hour. The 12-month rate of hourly wage gains was unchanged at 3.2%. Hours worked each week fell 0.1 hour in April to 34.4. The government revised the increase in new jobs in March to 189,000 from a preliminary 196,000. February's gain was raised to 56,000 from 33,000

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-263000-jobs-in-april-unemployment-falls-to-36-2019-05-03 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-263000-jobs-in-april-unemployment-falls-to-36-2019-05-03)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on May 03, 2019, 08:46:00 AM
I wasn’t active on this forum at the time — but were you guys as much hyperventilating with joy when Obama was posting strong job gain numbers month after month ?

 Or were people busy teabagging him and worrying about deficits back then ?

As I have long said , presidents don’t matter when it comes to economic cycles - central banks and fiscal spending matters a lot more . I have explained why in great detail in other threads over prior months ...

remember my comments about the Fed dovish pivot in November last year and how it will be very good for risk assets and will take away recession risk and lead to a bottoming out in housing .
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 03, 2019, 09:07:59 AM
There wasn't as much political discussion back then because Obama wasn't as polarizing (in my opinion).

Our current president is a "Trumpster Fire" so that obviously creates much more debate.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on May 03, 2019, 09:11:31 AM

As I have long said , presidents don’t matter when it comes to economic cycles - central banks and fiscal spending matters a lot more . I have explained why in great detail in other threads over prior months ...


How much influence does the POTUS have on fiscal spending and the FED?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on May 03, 2019, 09:46:18 AM
This is where tone and tenure makes a difference.  Presidents inherit the economy they inherit.  If there was some magical button in the back of the Oval office that creates growth then every president would be pushing it every day.  Where a President has influence is in Tax and regulatory policy.  He sets the tone.  No, denying it, Obama had job growth and expansion but by raising taxes and pushing massive regulation he muted the reaction from business.  He got expansion but it always seemed anemic and agonizingly slow (the new normal).  Obama was injected in to all areas of the economy. Energy, manufacturing, banking and services.  In essence he poured water on his expansion.  This guy is different in his style.  He is pouring Gas on the fire through lower taxes and slashing regulation.  The tone to business is different and they are not shy about it.  You can argue the micro numbers all you want but that little change makes a difference in strategic decision making.  Now, will there be a recession? Of course, but it will be more like ones we have had in the past. Sharp and fairly short.  You cannot argue we are not in more "normal" cycles now.  Look at what they are comparing these numbers to. Numbers not seen since the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's....not 2000's.  The old arguments of previous cycles like "sure, the economy is doing well...but not for everyone, people are being left behind." are back. This is more like the Reagan expansion, watch, I guarantee you that we will see the "Morning in America" commercial again.


https://youtu.be/EU-IBF8nwSY

https://youtu.be/EU-IBF8nwSY (https://youtu.be/EU-IBF8nwSY)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on May 03, 2019, 11:11:11 AM

As I have long said , presidents don’t matter when it comes to economic cycles - central banks and fiscal spending matters a lot more . I have explained why in great detail in other threads over prior months ...


How much influence does the POTUS have on fiscal spending and the FED?

In the modern Fed era , not much . Trump tried to change that with appointment of Cain and then Moore but both blew up in his face .. the fed chairs generally operate independently. Best example volker who killed inflation in the late 70s early 80s and caused a mini recession while at it . Wasn’t politically popular at the time

As to fiscal — that’s a long discussion . But in magnitude terms for the economy , Fed matters a lot more . But I will write about fiscal in part 2 of my reply (lengthier) . Have to go now .
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on May 03, 2019, 11:13:25 AM
Most business owners , esp small
Business owners , lean republican.  This heavily colors their view of business confidence surveys depending on which party is in charge , all else equal .

Obama had the added misfortune of being labeled a socialist by the right echo chamber and the racist tea party tropes .
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on May 03, 2019, 11:17:40 AM
I had thought the markets had topped out after reaching new highs earlier this week then stalling/falling the last couple days.  I guess once again proof that I'm better off sitting around and doing nothing.  Passive investing still works (for now)...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on May 03, 2019, 11:29:32 AM
Gotta break highs in order to go higher. >:D
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 03, 2019, 06:04:50 PM
I wasn’t active on this forum at the time — but were you guys as much hyperventilating with joy when Obama was posting strong job gain numbers month after month ?

 Or were people busy teabagging him and worrying about deficits back then ?

As I have long said , presidents don’t matter when it comes to economic cycles - central banks and fiscal spending matters a lot more . I have explained why in great detail in other threads over prior months ...

remember my comments about the Fed dovish pivot in November last year and how it will be very good for risk assets and will take away recession risk and lead to a bottoming out in housing .

So you think housing has bottomed?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: fortune11 on May 03, 2019, 08:04:48 PM
I wasn’t active on this forum at the time — but were you guys as much hyperventilating with joy when Obama was posting strong job gain numbers month after month ?

 Or were people busy teabagging him and worrying about deficits back then ?

As I have long said , presidents don’t matter when it comes to economic cycles - central banks and fiscal spending matters a lot more . I have explained why in great detail in other threads over prior months ...

remember my comments about the Fed dovish pivot in November last year and how it will be very good for risk assets and will take away recession risk and lead to a bottoming out in housing .

So you think housing has bottomed?

At the macro /aggregate level, yes. And this is why homebuilder stocks are up big since October -- market looks 6-12 months ahead whereas most economists are chasing yesterdays data. Even the hated Toll brothers (because it is high end) is up ~30% since October.   

I am not an Irvine market expert so I will leave that to you guys to decide...
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: OCLuvr on May 03, 2019, 08:37:59 PM
Sorry but I disagree.. I think pain has started for CA/NY
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 03, 2019, 10:25:19 PM
Sorry but I disagree.. I think pain has started for CA/NY

Lower end has stabilized with slight price increases from the winter and I'm seeing more activity in the $1m-$1.5m market. As long as the stock market is flat to up and rates are flat to down I think real estate prices will be flattish.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: OCLuvr on May 04, 2019, 06:25:39 AM
It hasn’t happened in the history that yield curve inverted and a slowdown didn’t follow.. Give it some time
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 04, 2019, 09:07:49 PM
It hasn’t happened in the history that yield curve inverted and a slowdown didn’t follow.. Give it some time

I think the Fed learned a little lesson at the end of the year so now at the first signs of a downturn they'll be cutting rates.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on June 08, 2019, 08:23:40 AM
Did we do predictions for where the Dow will be at the end of this year?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on June 08, 2019, 11:28:28 PM
Did we do predictions for where the Dow will be at the end of this year?

27,500
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on June 24, 2019, 02:40:31 PM
The Dow is posting its best June performance since 1938
Quote
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently on pace to record its strongest June since 1938. Similarly, the S&P 500 is on track to match its best June since 1955. Month-over-month data shows that the Dow is up by 7.8% and the S&P 500 7.3%, respectively, according to Fortune magazine.

June has so far proven to be a high point for market trends in 2019, though the entire year is up by significant margins. The Dow has seen a 14.7% uptick from 2018, while S&P has surged by 17.8%. June contributed largely to both gains.

President Trump has touted himself and the work of his administration for the stock market surge, tweeting, "Stock Market is on track to have the best June in over 50 years! Thank you Mr. President!"

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/the-dow-is-posting-its-best-june-performance-since-1938
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on July 03, 2019, 11:43:04 AM
Let's have a tank parade!!!

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq hit new records ahead of July 4th
Quote
U.S. stocks traded higher on Wednesday lifting the Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to new records as financial markets closed early for the July 4th holiday.

President Trump celebrated the milestone tweeting a "congratulations!" noting the 19 percent annual gain for the broadest measure of stocks.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-rise-ahead-of-july-4th-holiday
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on July 03, 2019, 03:32:10 PM
Let's have a tank parade!!!

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq hit new records ahead of July 4th
Quote
U.S. stocks traded higher on Wednesday lifting the Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to new records as financial markets closed early for the July 4th holiday.

President Trump celebrated the milestone tweeting a "congratulations!" noting the 19 percent annual gain for the broadest measure of stocks.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-rise-ahead-of-july-4th-holiday

look at trump, spinning this as positive news....psshhhh
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on July 03, 2019, 11:21:28 PM
Wow, S&P 3k will be here a lot sooner than I thought (most likely Friday).
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 11, 2019, 08:33:12 AM
At least a 15% gain so minimum of 27000.

As always...I'm too pessimistic. Join me... ;)

https://youtu.be/NSlHDsCDXG0

https://youtu.be/NSlHDsCDXG0 (https://youtu.be/NSlHDsCDXG0)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on July 12, 2019, 09:08:04 AM
Was the US economy overheating before Trumps China Tariffs?
Perhaps the Trump tariffs helped cool off wall street. (a good thing)

I mean how can you put a 25% tariff on China, and still the stock market is at DOW 27,000?
Back in 2017, the idea of a 25% tariff on China was absurd, yet here we are.

What would happen to the stock market if Turmp lifted his tariffs?  Would it jump 10%?


Is that his plan for the 2020 re-election?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on July 12, 2019, 10:19:34 AM
Was the US economy overheating before Trumps China Tariffs?
Perhaps the Trump tariffs helped cool off wall street. (a good thing)

I mean how can you put a 25% tariff on China, and still the stock market is at DOW 27,000?
Back in 2017, the idea of a 25% tariff on China was absurd, yet here we are.

What would happen to the stock market if Turmp lifted his tariffs?  Would it jump 10%?


Is that his plan for the 2020 re-election?

china won't budge before 2020, as they can wait until trump wins/loses before they make their next move.  it's trump's move to make, and with the fed getting ready to lower interest rates 1-2 times, it will only boost us up even more if he pulls back or calls a cease fire until the election is over.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on July 12, 2019, 11:01:14 AM
We have given China too much credit.  This time frame reminds me of the late 1990's.  While the world economies collapsed in the currency crisis (most notably, China and Russia), we were the shining city on the hill. Our economy expanded dramatically and we saved the world (again) with the Brady Bond program which propped up most all of the worlds currencies(made a bloody fortune in those). We can , and do, well while the rest of the world contracts. We will be fine.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 15, 2019, 08:28:22 AM
So is this inversion point also going to lead to dropping home prices in Irvine?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 15, 2019, 01:18:12 PM
So is this inversion point also going to lead to dropping home prices in Irvine?

I thought home prices were already dropping in Irvine?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: OCLuvr on August 18, 2019, 09:11:42 PM
What do you guys think where are we headed? Recession in Q42019 or Q12020?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on August 18, 2019, 10:09:59 PM
What do you guys think where are we headed? Recession in Q42019 or Q12020?

There is no way in hell trump lets a recession happen before the election.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 18, 2019, 10:28:06 PM
What do you guys think where are we headed? Recession in Q42019 or Q12020?

There is no way in hell trump lets a recession happen before the election.

You never know
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on August 19, 2019, 06:47:28 AM
"recession, recession, recession"

...are we there yet?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 19, 2019, 07:36:22 AM
"recession, recession, recession"

...are we there yet?

Think we are still on white supremacist, white supremacist,  white supremacist!!  Remember anti-Semite, anti-Semite, anti-Semite!?....ahhh those were heady times!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 07:38:33 AM
"recession, recession, recession"

...are we there yet?

Think we are still on white supremacist, white supremacist,  white supremacist!!  Remember anti-Semite, anti-Semite, anti-Semite!?....ahhh those were heady times!

Mr. jollyB

He’s trashing everythread. This is why no big company will sponsor TI. (the admin doesn’t see it)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: OCLuvr on August 19, 2019, 07:58:44 AM
Not sure how much can Trump do other than pressing Fed.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on August 19, 2019, 09:48:30 AM
"recession, recession, recession"

...are we there yet?

Think we are still on white supremacist, white supremacist,  white supremacist!!  Remember anti-Semite, anti-Semite, anti-Semite!?....ahhh those were heady times!

Mr. jollyB

He’s trashing everythread. This is why no big company will sponsor TI. (the admin doesn’t see it)

Why would we as readers & contributors want a big company to sponsor TI?  How does it benefit us?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 19, 2019, 09:49:47 AM
34% of economists expect a recession in 2021

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-recession-coming-in-2019-34-of-economists-dont-expect-a-recession-until-2021/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-recession-coming-in-2019-34-of-economists-dont-expect-a-recession-until-2021/)

Shouldn't that headline read "Almost 2/3 of Economists See No Recession Until After 2021!"
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 09:55:26 AM
"recession, recession, recession"

...are we there yet?

Think we are still on white supremacist, white supremacist,  white supremacist!!  Remember anti-Semite, anti-Semite, anti-Semite!?....ahhh those were heady times!

Mr. jollyB

He’s trashing everythread. This is why no big company will sponsor TI. (the admin doesn’t see it)

Why would we as readers & contributors want a big company to sponsor TI?  How does it benefit us?

Talkirvine is not a nonprofit. The goal of most websites is to make a profit. For example (We talk about housing like 247. A home builder or real estate brokerage doesn’t put an add on TI. Theres so much trash and puke that’s on TI they stay away from this website with a 100 ft pole.)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on August 19, 2019, 10:01:04 AM
This forum was setup after the IHB forum was cancelled in 2008
Why was the IHB forum cancelled?

Because what's his face was trying to become a realtor and sell properties on his popular blog, and us forum users talked too much shit for him to be successful.

So this forum was setup for us IHB rejects to talk shit about real estate.  Has that now changed?  Is TI now trying to make money?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 10:04:43 AM
This forum was setup after the IHB forum was cancelled in 2008
Why was the IHB forum cancelled?

Because what's his face was trying to become a realtor and sell properties on his popular blog, and us forum users talked too much shit for him to be successful.

So this forum was setup for us IHB rejects to talk shit about real estate.  Has it now changed?  Is it now trying to make money?

Go ask the admin if he takes a loss or makes money.

I know of smaller websites/blogs that makes so much money that it’s unbelievable.

I can go back and forth with you. If the goal of a website is to make money. Go take a business course or something. It makes sense you like solar and it will take years to recover.

Losing money/burning money philosophy. I get it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 10:08:33 AM
Sub: The goal of a business is to make money. Remember that.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on August 19, 2019, 10:14:10 AM
"recession, recession, recession"

...are we there yet?

Think we are still on white supremacist, white supremacist,  white supremacist!!  Remember anti-Semite, anti-Semite, anti-Semite!?....ahhh those were heady times!

Mr. jollyB

He’s trashing everythread. This is why no big company will sponsor TI. (the admin doesn’t see it)

Why would we as readers & contributors want a big company to sponsor TI?  How does it benefit us?

Talkirvine is not a nonprofit. The goal of most websites is to make a profit. For example (We talk about housing like 247. A home builder or real estate brokerage doesn’t put an add on TI. Theres so much trash and puke that’s on TI they stay away from this website with a 100 ft pole.)

how do you know morekaos doesn't own ti?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 10:16:21 AM
"recession, recession, recession"

...are we there yet?

Think we are still on white supremacist, white supremacist,  white supremacist!!  Remember anti-Semite, anti-Semite, anti-Semite!?....ahhh those were heady times!

Mr. jollyB

He’s trashing everythread. This is why no big company will sponsor TI. (the admin doesn’t see it)

Why would we as readers & contributors want a big company to sponsor TI?  How does it benefit us?

Talkirvine is not a nonprofit. The goal of most websites is to make a profit. For example (We talk about housing like 247. A home builder or real estate brokerage doesn’t put an add on TI. Theres so much trash and puke that’s on TI they stay away from this website with a 100 ft pole.)

how do you know morekaos doesn't own ti?

Another conspiracy that doesn’t make sense.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on August 19, 2019, 10:16:36 AM
I think the more important question is...
How do big sponsors benefit the readers and writers here?

I mean will I get $100 if I talk up Lennar....
Or will someone give me $100 to shit on KB?...where's my money!!  I am an influencer!


Did you know high karma accounts on Reddit have monetary value?...so people are farming karma on reddit to sell to big corp.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 10:17:21 AM
This is like fortnite (battle royal). Who else wants some? I’m taking people to school left and right.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 10:18:03 AM
I think the more important question is...
How do big sponsors benefit the readers and writers here?

I mean will I get $100 if I talk up Lennar....
Or will someone give me $100 to shit on KB?...where's my money!!  I am an influencer!

You don’t get it. You sound very young.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Mety on August 19, 2019, 10:22:41 AM
I think the more important question is...
How do big sponsors benefit the readers and writers here?

I mean will I get $100 if I talk up Lennar....
Or will someone give me $100 to shit on KB?...where's my money!!  I am an influencer!


Did you know high karma accounts on Reddit have monetary value?...so people are farming karma on reddit to sell to big corp.

Welcome back, YF!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 10:30:25 AM
Sub: You should think things through before you make a comment to me. (Like I told IHo)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 19, 2019, 10:32:38 AM
This forum was setup after the IHB forum was cancelled in 2008
Why was the IHB forum cancelled?

Because what's his face was trying to become a realtor and sell properties on his popular blog, and us forum users talked too much shit for him to be successful.

So this forum was setup for us IHB rejects to talk shit about real estate.  Has that now changed?  Is TI now trying to make money?

It reminds me of the heady days of Yuri Gagarin....

https://youtu.be/zsC2ETsZL0g

https://youtu.be/zsC2ETsZL0g (https://youtu.be/zsC2ETsZL0g)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on August 19, 2019, 10:55:09 AM
"recession, recession, recession"

...are we there yet?

Think we are still on white supremacist, white supremacist,  white supremacist!!  Remember anti-Semite, anti-Semite, anti-Semite!?....ahhh those were heady times!

(https://i.redd.it/ip3kidk0wdh31.jpg)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on August 19, 2019, 10:56:19 AM
Eyephone, Please tell me why I would want big corporations putting ads all over talk irvine.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: momopi on August 19, 2019, 10:59:15 AM

When Zovall ran the blog, weren't we sponsored by Redfin at one point?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 11:07:04 AM

When Zovall ran the blog, weren't we sponsored by Redfin at one point?

Exactly
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 11:09:20 AM
Eyephone, Please tell me why I would want big corporations putting ads all over talk irvine.

Let’s ask the same question that I already answered.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 11:17:53 AM
Subwy: Again, think things through before you type. It may help you in life and in your career.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on August 19, 2019, 11:18:46 AM
Ah sorry you are right you answered that TI is for profit.  How do you know TI is for profit?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 11:20:04 AM
Ah sorry you are right you answered that TI is for profit.  How do you know TI is for profit?

We all know that this is not a nonprofit website.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 11:21:40 AM
I’m done talking to the moose. Such a waste of my time. She asks the same question and doesn’t like get simple concepts.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 11:33:36 AM
I think the more important question is...
How do big sponsors benefit the readers and writers here?

I mean will I get $100 if I talk up Lennar....
Or will someone give me $100 to shit on KB?...where's my money!!  I am an influencer!


Did you know high karma accounts on Reddit have monetary value?...so people are farming karma on reddit to sell to big corp.

Welcome back, YF!

That’s not YF at all. Far from it.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on August 19, 2019, 12:04:20 PM
People who come to TI expect to read as truthful of comments as possible.  With the advent of big ad dollars, the truth will be skewed to accommodate the money.  It is in the interest of the TI readership that we keep the big ad dollars away.  How do we do it? by cussing and being racist and posting dog meat pics from yunnan dog meat festival.

fuck you very much.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 19, 2019, 03:42:34 PM

When Zovall ran the blog, weren't we sponsored by Redfin at one point?


I'm pretty sure zovall also runs TI... remember... Larry left IHB to form his own OC one.

That's when zovall acquired TI and set IHB back to a housing blog (it used to profile new home models).

Sub: You should think things through before you make a comment to me. (Like I told IHo)

eyephone and his idle threats. So funny.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 03:56:49 PM

When Zovall ran the blog, weren't we sponsored by Redfin at one point?


I'm pretty sure zovall also runs TI... remember... Larry left IHB to form his own OC one.

That's when zovall acquired TI and set IHB back to a housing blog (it used to profile new home models).

Sub: You should think things through before you make a comment to me. (Like I told IHo)

eyephone and his idle threats. So funny.

What is the guy talking about? Idle threats? I’m not even threatening anybody. Think it through.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 19, 2019, 04:03:37 PM
Idle threats? I’m not even threatening anybody.

Exactly.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: eyephone on August 19, 2019, 04:09:05 PM
Get to the point. I don’t have time to back and forth with you.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on August 21, 2019, 09:34:43 AM
"recession, recession, recession"

...are we there yet?

Think we are still on white supremacist, white supremacist,  white supremacist!!  Remember anti-Semite, anti-Semite, anti-Semite!?....ahhh those were heady times!

Retail Sales!, Retail Sales!, Retail S.....oh wait thats good news....never mind.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: paydawg on August 21, 2019, 10:03:09 AM
Retail sales has been poor for many companies without a sound online strategy.  Look at Nordstrom (JWN) or Macy's (M) as good examples. 
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: qwerty on November 04, 2019, 10:41:41 AM
Did we do predictions for where the Dow will be at the end of this year?

27,500

Almost at 27,500, should have played the lotto as well
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on November 04, 2019, 11:09:14 AM
OH Puleeeeze! The Dow is down 3% year to date.  This is a big boy game. If you don't have the pants to play, you shouldn't try and wear them.

I sold in early January...I guess you thought we were going higher in the new paradigm, but I'm sure deep down inside you knew it was too good to be true. Too many issues surrounding stocks for it to go higher...Libor blowing out, rising rates, facebook stock headed into the toilet.

March 23, 2018 Dow stood at 23,533...early January 25,283....who's your daddy now?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on November 04, 2019, 11:14:19 AM
but i was promised a recession!!  >:(
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: zubs on November 04, 2019, 01:21:50 PM
I heard something funny yesterday on NPR. 

When the recession hits, everyone will be expecting it!
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: B2FiNiTY on November 07, 2019, 12:57:40 AM
Can’t believe we are where we are today. Sure didn’t see that coming.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 07, 2019, 06:06:54 AM
Wow. Dow over double what is was when I started this thread in January 2011.

Makes Panda’s 10k call even crazier. :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on November 07, 2019, 08:07:11 PM
It hasn’t happened in the history that yield curve inverted and a slowdown didn’t follow.. Give it some time

Well I guess there is always a first...

Bond yields are surging, and the scary recession warning everyone was talking about has gone away


The Treasury yield curve was signaling recession this summer and now positive trade developments and Fed easing have helped turn the tide, to where the bond market is actually signaling growth.
Thursday’s big move up in yields was the biggest one day jump in the 10-year since President Trump was elected president.
Strategists say yields are now in an uptrend, but they do not see the 10-year moving much above 2% in the short term.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/bond-yields-are-surging-and-the-scary-recession-warning-everyone-was-talking-about-has-gone-away.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/bond-yields-are-surging-and-the-scary-recession-warning-everyone-was-talking-about-has-gone-away.html)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on November 08, 2019, 09:42:56 AM
It hasn’t happened in the history that yield curve inverted and a slowdown didn’t follow.. Give it some time

Well I guess there is always a first...

Bond yields are surging, and the scary recession warning everyone was talking about has gone away


The Treasury yield curve was signaling recession this summer and now positive trade developments and Fed easing have helped turn the tide, to where the bond market is actually signaling growth.
Thursday’s big move up in yields was the biggest one day jump in the 10-year since President Trump was elected president.
Strategists say yields are now in an uptrend, but they do not see the 10-year moving much above 2% in the short term.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/bond-yields-are-surging-and-the-scary-recession-warning-everyone-was-talking-about-has-gone-away.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/bond-yields-are-surging-and-the-scary-recession-warning-everyone-was-talking-about-has-gone-away.html)

In 1998 there was a brief yield curve inversion for less than a month, and the stock market rocketed higher after that occurred.

The yield curve is a sentiment indicator, nothing more, nothing less.  Sometimes the bond market is more pessimistic than it should be and the economy doesn't cooperate by falling into a recession until years after the fact.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: nosuchreality on November 08, 2019, 09:35:07 PM
There's still a trillion dollars of juice flowiing from the Feds every year.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on November 15, 2019, 01:12:30 PM
dow 30k by christmas
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: morekaos on November 15, 2019, 01:32:32 PM
Unless you got out at S&P 2750 and never got back in...doh!!!

https://youtu.be/cnaeIAEp2pU

https://youtu.be/cnaeIAEp2pU (https://youtu.be/cnaeIAEp2pU)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on November 30, 2019, 11:54:07 PM

I see a trend in the DOW that changes every 20 year cycle. If my crystal ball is correct we will end up 10 - 15% give or take where we started in the DOW in January 2000 by 2020. Also listen to the little bird inside and do not listen to anyone when the right time to buy stocks and real estate. I knew when the dollar index reach 89 in June 2010 and I need to sell the dollar and buy the Euro. I posted if i should make this dollar/Euro trade on TalkIrvine, and my friend Trojanman aka "Martin" posted "NO Panda don't do it, the EURO is about the collapse!" Unfortunately i listened to Martin Hahaha... i knew I should have listened to the little bird inside :)

We almost made it to 2020!  I guess the Dow could fall 60% in December but it’s been a good run.  Cheers Panda :)
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 16, 2019, 09:06:05 AM
Dow gains 10,000th point since Trump's election
Quote
The stock market has been unstoppable under the influence of President Trump.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 28,332.74 on Monday, meaning it has rallied 10,000 points, or more than 54 percent, since Trump’s election victory on November 8, 2016. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained more than 46 percent.

“The rally has been driven by pro-growth measures, de-escalation of trade tensions, huge liquidity injections by central banks and a FOMO approach by investors worried about missing out on a remarkable U.S. market outperformance that has set one record high after the other.” Mohamed El-Arian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, told FOX Business.

The gains show why U.S. markets have become the envy of the world under Trump, who has followed through on his promises of cutting taxes and regulations and rewriting global trade deals in America's favor.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dow-gains-10000th-point-since-trumps-election
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: OCLuvr on December 27, 2019, 08:43:27 PM
Is anyone of you planning to get out?
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: aquabliss on December 28, 2019, 12:21:36 AM
Did we do predictions for where the Dow will be at the end of this year?

27,500
One more trading day left but I think you win Q (granted you made this prediction 6 months in).

Too lazy to look for all the replies but I found IHO guessed 27k and MoreKaos guessed 30k.

Time to make predictions for 2020 end, but I think the election will be a big factor.  Even the dem nominee will be a factor.
Title: Re: Dow?
Post by: Kings on December 28, 2019, 07:00:43 AM