Talk Irvine

General => Economy & Finance => Topic started by: eyephone on September 28, 2015, 10:07:28 PM

Title: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on September 28, 2015, 10:07:28 PM
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 completes the death cross.
Time to sell? Possible recession?


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-composite-completes-the-death-cross-grand-slam-2015-09-28

source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3533626-the-s-and-p-500-death-cross-time-to-panic
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 06, 2016, 08:28:27 PM
Not looking good. China shares suspended. Japan stock market tanked.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Panda on January 06, 2016, 08:40:19 PM
currently long gold.... Looking for a short term bounce up to $1140. Once prices drop to $950 I will be buying heavily. My eyes are also watching energy, agriculture, and miners.

Because you know what is going to happen next... More quantitative easing... :)

History tends to repeat itself.... Look at the chart in 1937 after the great crash of 1929.   Do u see any similarities today? In 1937 they raise rates for the first time in 8 years.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Goriot on January 06, 2016, 08:44:22 PM
It's going to be a ugly year.  Mine fields everywhere.  Potential Black Swan event in 2016.

Dow futures down 160+. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Panda on January 06, 2016, 08:47:36 PM
That is why you want to own SDS - 2X short s&p and fund your vanguard 529 plan when s&p goes on a 50% off sale.
:)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on January 06, 2016, 08:54:31 PM
China's market look like a train wreck in slow motion, what a way to start a new year.

Where's Panda's DOW going to hit 10,000 prediction?  :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Panda on January 06, 2016, 08:58:55 PM
Inc, you may be laughing at me now but between now and 2018 you will not be laughing at me anymore.... Dow 10k ... This bear market cycle does not end until 2018.  Not over yet :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on January 07, 2016, 07:24:52 AM
Inc, you may be laughing at me now but between now and 2018 you will not be laughing at me anymore.... Dow 10k ... This bear market cycle does not end until 2018.  Not over yet :)

I'm not laughing at you Panda, and actually you was correct back then with your DOW 10,000 call.  I'm just j/d around see if you going to give another specific DOW bottom call this time around.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 07, 2016, 07:32:32 AM
Wait... I don't remember Panda having a correct Dow call.

Last thing I remember he said it would drop and not rise and that wasn't the case.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on January 07, 2016, 07:53:46 AM
I'm just the opposite...as usual. I am pushing long into the selloff. I feel we will advance this year.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Goriot on January 07, 2016, 11:10:37 AM
Dow 600+ pt loss in the past two days.  Down almost 1,000 pts in a week.   Flashback of the Summer '15. 
Energy and commodity getting further crushed.  Those junk bonds gonna implode later.  No pain no gain.
Happy New Year!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on January 07, 2016, 11:51:55 AM
When  this Douche opens his Pie Hole do the opposite...its what he is really doing.

Soros: It's the 2008 crisis all over again

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/soros-its-the-2008-crisis-all-over-again.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/soros-its-the-2008-crisis-all-over-again.html)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 07, 2016, 11:55:16 AM
More yuan devaluation ( speculation according to different reports)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: iacrenter on January 07, 2016, 12:22:55 PM
More yuan devaluation ( speculation according to different reports)

Will this slowdown Chinese RE investment in the US?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Panda on January 07, 2016, 12:48:40 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2i8w09z.jpg)

Inc, you may be laughing at me now but between now and 2018 you will not be laughing at me anymore.... Dow 10k ... This bear market cycle does not end until 2018.  Not over yet :)

I'm not laughing at you Panda, and actually you was correct back then with your DOW 10,000 call.  I'm just j/d around see if you going to give another specific DOW bottom call this time around.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: B2FiNiTY on January 07, 2016, 05:59:44 PM
More yuan devaluation ( speculation according to different reports)

Will this slowdown Chinese RE investment in the US?

Most definitely. It is already much more expensive not to mention much more difficult to get money over here in the states lately.

It's pretty dismal here in China right now. I would not count on the Chinese bailing out the RE market this time around. They are having enough trouble finding buyers for the inventory here.

Get in your bunker and get ready for the chinese led global recession. :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cornflakes on January 07, 2016, 10:32:53 PM
Not sure why many bearish sentiments on this thread.

2008 - US economy was in big big trouble, unemployment, banks failing, the whole gamut. Stock market came back up pretty nicely.

2016 - Yes, China and other countries are in trouble. Not so much us. I wonder when rest of the world pulls out their money from those dropping markets, where will that money flow? I'd think they'd bring it over here.

That being said, I have made my share of foolish predictions in past.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 07, 2016, 11:00:25 PM
Not sure why many bearish sentiments on this thread.


Dallas Fed says U.S. has lost 70,000 oil jobs in the past year

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/12/24/dallas-fed-says-u-s-oil-bankruptcies-at-great-recession-era-levels/

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cornflakes on January 07, 2016, 11:10:48 PM
There is no secret around oil industry bust last year. Overall US employment is restored back to 5%ish. We'll see what tomorrow morning report brings.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on January 08, 2016, 05:49:51 AM
There is no secret around oil industry bust last year. Overall US employment is restored back to 5%ish. We'll see what tomorrow morning report brings.

Good jobs report, futures have Dow up 200+

Dead cat bounce I guess.  Perhaps today is a good day to bail if you're still bearish.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 08, 2016, 02:12:10 PM
There is no secret around oil industry bust last year. Overall US employment is restored back to 5%ish. We'll see what tomorrow morning report brings.

Good jobs report, futures have Dow up 200+

Dead cat bounce I guess.  Perhaps today is a good day to bail if you're still bearish.

Dow down 167 today
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Goriot on January 08, 2016, 02:44:26 PM
There is no secret around oil industry bust last year. Overall US employment is restored back to 5%ish. We'll see what tomorrow morning report brings.

Good jobs report, futures have Dow up 200+

Dead cat bounce I guess.  Perhaps today is a good day to bail if you're still bearish.

Good Payroll Numbers, but Wage Growth 0% (unchanged).  Lower chance of rate hike.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Goriot on January 08, 2016, 02:44:45 PM
There is no secret around oil industry bust last year. Overall US employment is restored back to 5%ish. We'll see what tomorrow morning report brings.

Good jobs report, futures have Dow up 200+

Dead cat bounce I guess.  Perhaps today is a good day to bail if you're still bearish.

Good call.
Great Payroll Numbers, but Wage Growth 0% (unchanged).  Lower chance of rate hike in Q1 '16. 
Dow = Worst start of new year since 1894.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 09, 2016, 07:26:14 AM
Shale drillers could soon default as credit options run out

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/These-Shale-Drillers-Could-Soon-Default-As-Credit-Options-Run-Out.html
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 14, 2016, 10:03:41 PM
Are we headed to a market collapse? look at the trend

2000 - Dotcom bubble
2008 - Bank bailouts (Bear Sterns)
2016 - China market/low oil price
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: B2FiNiTY on January 14, 2016, 10:05:58 PM
Yup. Completely agree with that cycle.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: AW on January 14, 2016, 10:24:33 PM
So buy oil stocks and etfs now!

After dot com bust, tech companies were cheap
After financial crisis meltdown, bank stocks were cheap
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Goriot on January 14, 2016, 11:51:29 PM
Ms. Shanghai down 3.55%.  Dow futures down 123 pts.  Ugly start of Friday morning.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on January 15, 2016, 12:14:52 AM
Just go long at the end of the down days and short at the end of the up days.

Easy $
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Panda on January 15, 2016, 02:28:32 AM
Crude oil is now less than $30. I am in agreement with aw, for those who have the foresight to see the major opportunity in oil and the energy sector will do extremely well in years ahead. I prefer to look for deals in the Indian equities over China in the second half of the year. Do not trade and identify major macro economic trends and cycles.

2016 is not the time to be a hero in the stock market. The name of the game is wealth preservation.

1966 - 1982 - bear market cycle
1982 - 2000 - bull market cycle
2000 - 2018 - bear market cycle
2018 - 2036 - bull market cycle



So buy oil stocks and etfs now!

After dot com bust, tech companies were cheap
After financial crisis meltdown, bank stocks were cheap
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on January 15, 2016, 07:09:20 AM
DOW just might close below 16,000 today. 

So what's good buy beside oil related stock?



Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on January 15, 2016, 07:15:49 AM
Are we headed to a market collapse? look at the trend

2000 - Dotcom bubble
2008 - Bank bailouts (Bear Sterns)
2016 - China market/low oil price

Every 8 years, hmm...

I guess 8 is the lucky number for those who timed it just right. :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on January 15, 2016, 07:54:20 AM
DOW just might close below 16,000 today. 

So what's good buy beside oil related stock?





Everything
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Panda on January 15, 2016, 08:02:50 AM
For those of you who thought they missed the boat in funding their Vanguard 529 Education IRA Plan. You have not missed the boat as another great opportunity is coming. Look for opportunities second half of 2016, but do not miss this opportunity.

I have been a stock market bear for the last 16 years... In about 2 years... I am going to be extremely bullish on the stock market and will be executing a buy and hold strategy. The current environment we are in is similar environment to that of 1937. 

The year 2018 will a similar environment to the year 1982. Back in 2000 the DOW closed at 11,400. I would not surprised one bit, if after 18 years, the DOW is around the same place where it is started in the year 2000.

(http://www.investwithalex.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Long-Term-Dow-Structure3-1024x768.jpg)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: AW on January 15, 2016, 09:05:51 AM
DOW just might close below 16,000 today. 

So what's good buy beside oil related stock?





Everything

For reals, all sectors are down.

Sector rotation play indicates non cyclical consumer goods for the near term?

Or start buying index, even the slow way (dollar cost averaging) for every month for several years (like contributing to 401k method).

I'm still on the fence on options.  But market sure looks volatile.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 15, 2016, 09:12:19 AM
Sorry Panda, I do not trust you on any Dow predictions.

:)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Goriot on January 15, 2016, 09:34:34 AM
Dow down 500 pts.  I should cancel my contract for a new home at Orchard Hills and instead put that cash to work in Energy Sector after a little more pain and capitulation in the equity market.  Dow is going to 14,000 - 15,000, but not 10,000 like Panda is predicting.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on January 15, 2016, 09:47:04 AM
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

― Warren Buffett
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Goriot on January 15, 2016, 09:50:19 AM
More Fear is needed before turning Greedy at the moment=).  I still see too many Bulls.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Bullsback on January 15, 2016, 01:00:45 PM
Panda...correlation is not cause. The key is to understand what drove those indicators. The fact that you had x years in between is not a real driver and you had mini jumps all throughout. 

Plus, depending on where you slice the data, your 17 year bear, I'd argue that it was a massive 17 year Bull when you look at the ultimate bottom and than eventual run-up  in to the 1940's. For example, think about what drove about what overall business trends which resulted in growth, etc. Better you understand that and the better you truly understand what could potentially happen (even than, my  thoughts are, too damn tough to predict, only supposed constant is eventual increases and you just have to hope that holds out, if it doesn't, we all have far worse problems). 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on January 15, 2016, 01:54:22 PM
More Fear is needed before turning Greedy at the moment=).  I still see too many Bulls.

Is this the Bull you are talking about? :)

(http://hoocoodanode.org/uploads/default/original/2X/8/8e3df5a84f3db40a76e87754b181083d8fade7d1.png)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 15, 2016, 03:50:44 PM
Dow down 500 pts.  I should cancel my contract for a new home at Orchard Hills and instead put that cash to work in Energy Sector after a little more pain and capitulation in the equity market.  Dow is going to 14,000 - 15,000, but not 10,000 like Panda is predicting.

So are you going to back out and roll the dice?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on January 19, 2016, 09:44:24 PM
Asia market looks pretty ugly tonight and Dow future also down close to 2%.  Looks like it's going to be another interesting day tomorrow.

(http://cdn.meme.am/instances/64168280.jpg)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Goriot on January 19, 2016, 10:04:21 PM
Asia market looks pretty ugly tonight and Dow future also down close to 2%.  Looks like it's going to be another interesting day tomorrow.

(http://cdn.meme.am/instances/64168280.jpg)

Yup ugly indeed.  Dow futures down 271.  Asian composites down almost 3%.  Get your cash pile ready.  Uncle Sam 's Cash is the king. This is another once in a decade rout on emerging markets and their currencies which will be a big opportunity for those with USD cash pile and liquidity.  Wait until they say Mercy to take a full advantage.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 19, 2016, 10:04:52 PM
Utilities sector are a safe haven? I looked at symbol ED, surprisingly it has been steady during the down turn.


Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 19, 2016, 11:10:39 PM
A good tool to use. SEC Form 4 provides info whether corporate insiders are buying or selling the stock. Just type in the ticker symbol.

http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/sec-insider-form-4.aspx
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cornflakes on January 20, 2016, 12:09:40 AM
A good tool to use. SEC Form 4 provides info whether corporate insiders are buying or selling the stock. Just type in the ticker symbol.

http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/sec-insider-form-4.aspx

Almost always there will be more selling than buying. Most of those insiders buys are just option excersizes, and when the stock prices are high, many of them will take the profits off the table and diversify.

Interesting data would be when the company stock is in ditches and insiders are buying. That would tell me that they have plan to fix things and are willing to put their money on it.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 20, 2016, 12:13:35 AM
A good tool to use. SEC Form 4 provides info whether corporate insiders are buying or selling the stock. Just type in the ticker symbol.

http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/sec-insider-form-4.aspx

Almost always there will be more selling than buying. Most of those insiders buys are just option excersizes, and when the stock prices are high, many of them will take the profits off the table and diversify.

Interesting data would be when the company stock is in ditches and insiders are buying. That would tell me that they have plan to fix things and are willing to put their money on it.

Type ticker symbol PSX

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 20, 2016, 12:26:25 AM
I also like to view Form 13F. Investment managers with at least $100 million in equity assets under their management.

I use this website.
http://whalewisdom.com/filing/latest_filings
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: ps9 on January 20, 2016, 06:59:06 AM
Uncle
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 25, 2016, 08:58:03 PM
Uncle

Sell off in Asia. Another down day tomorrow?

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on January 25, 2016, 11:10:43 PM
Uncle

Sell off in Asia. Another down day tomorrow?



Oil down below $30 again.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 25, 2016, 11:36:20 PM
Uncle

Sell off in Asia. Another down day tomorrow?



Oil down below $30 again.

Are you trading VIX?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on January 26, 2016, 07:32:37 AM
Uncle

Sell off in Asia. Another down day tomorrow?



No
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 26, 2016, 07:33:55 AM
Uncle

Sell off in Asia. Another down day tomorrow?



No

That's easy to say. When the market is already open.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on January 26, 2016, 07:43:41 AM
That's sort of my point.  In the very short term these markets are totally unpredictable.  What happens overnight elsewhere is not a reliable predictor of morning action.  This market is a bit of a random walk right now.  Trader dream, investors nightmare.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on January 26, 2016, 10:54:28 AM
Sell off in Asia. Another down day tomorrow?

When you post this, Asia hasn't down that much and DOW future was just barely negative.  But later last night when China's stock took another cliff diving, I was expecting another down day too. 

This year it's going to be fun year to be stock trader. :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 26, 2016, 09:56:56 PM
That's sort of my point.  In the very short term these markets are totally unpredictable.  What happens overnight elsewhere is not a reliable predictor of morning action.  This market is a bit of a random walk right now.  Trader dream, investors nightmare.

So how to trade Apple?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on January 26, 2016, 10:15:36 PM
This is only a traders dream if you're on the right side of both of your trades.  With a roller coaster market like this, you might as well invest in the roulette wheel.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on January 27, 2016, 07:31:25 AM
That's sort of my point.  In the very short term these markets are totally unpredictable.  What happens overnight elsewhere is not a reliable predictor of morning action.  This market is a bit of a random walk right now.  Trader dream, investors nightmare.

So how to trade Apple?

If you like Apple than this is a decent area to accumulate. Needs to hold $94. If it violates than next support is around $85 then next stop is $76.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 27, 2016, 01:19:32 PM
Raising rates still on the table, what are they thinking.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on January 27, 2016, 02:24:27 PM
Raising rates still on the table, what are they thinking.

(http://media.cagle.com/124/2015/12/17/173285_600.jpg)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on January 27, 2016, 02:36:45 PM
So how to trade Apple?

If you like Apple than this is a decent area to accumulate. Needs to hold $94. If it violates than next support is around $85 then next stop is $76.

AAPL just broke below 94.  I'm going to start loading them up cautiously.  iPhone 7 coming out this fall might boots up the price and most analysts still have 12 month price target at around $140.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: jmoney74 on January 27, 2016, 02:46:23 PM
Since phones are subsidized anymore.. wonder if people will just hold off on upgrading.  I know a lot will.. but not to the record such as before. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: B2FiNiTY on January 27, 2016, 05:52:55 PM
I've been out of AAPL for awhile now, over a year at least. It was one of my most stable hold/trade holdings from 08-14 but there is nothing really exciting for them for the foreseeable future. They really need to create a new product category like they did with the iPhone and iPad. The iWatch is too niche and not mass consumer enough. Until then, I don't see any long term growth potential. However at it's current price levels, it will be a good stock to trade for a few percent here and there.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on January 29, 2016, 10:49:45 AM
Short positions are on sale today.... What to buy.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 02, 2016, 11:18:09 AM
Bargain hunting time?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: jmoney74 on February 02, 2016, 11:31:46 AM
Bargain hunting time?

financials.. BAC?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: B2FiNiTY on February 02, 2016, 05:09:53 PM
oil > financials
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: jmoney74 on February 02, 2016, 06:45:36 PM
oil > financials

True but oil is going to take longer
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on February 04, 2016, 12:05:32 PM
When  this Douche opens his Pie Hole do the opposite...its what he is really doing.

Soros: It's the 2008 crisis all over again

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/soros-its-the-2008-crisis-all-over-again.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/soros-its-the-2008-crisis-all-over-again.html)


Evil cheerleader will be wrong again, last time he said this the Dow was 11231 on its way to 18000

http://www.cnbc.com/id/ (http://www.cnbc.com/id/)

Soros: US Is Already in Double-Dip Recession

Reporting by Maria Bartiromo, Writing by Antonya Allen, CNBC.com
Thursday, 22 Sep 2011 | 1:51 AM ET

Asked by CNBC if he believed the US risks falling into a double-dip recession , Soror said: "I think we are in it already."

"We have a slowdown and basically a conflict about whether the rich ought to pay taxes to create jobs or not and there was a deal in the making which would have balanced the budget over the long term, but would have allowed short-term fiscal stimulus, which would have been the right policy," Soros said in an interview late Wednesday.

"That was rejected, it fell apart… so it will come to the electorate next year to decide what they want," he added
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 04, 2016, 03:49:33 PM
Buy LinkedIn? (Look at it after hours)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on February 05, 2016, 06:46:07 AM
Buy LinkedIn? (Look at it after hours)

Very tempted.  This is my buy then sell right away stock and got some decent gain in the past.  It's extremely volatile stock but at $122 this morning,  might just load up some.

Edit: LNKD now down to $111  :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 05, 2016, 07:02:19 AM
Looks like money is moving away from tech companies. (Fang, LinkedIn, Data)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 05, 2016, 11:28:53 AM
Ps9 - hows your porflio doing? Aren't you tech heavy?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 11, 2016, 09:12:41 AM
SEC probes Boeing for its accounting of the two jetliners.

I almost bought Boeing last week, good thing I didn't.

Yahoo layoffs begins today. (First round)
I think they plan to slash 1,500 approximately.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: jajji on February 11, 2016, 11:00:07 AM
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 completes the death cross.
Time to sell? Possible recession?

This was a good call.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 11, 2016, 11:07:20 AM
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 completes the death cross.
Time to sell? Possible recession?

This was a good call.

Panda also made a good call to be long on gold. When Panda made that call, gold was trading around 1115 and now it's around 1226.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 17, 2017, 12:16:57 PM
The Dow is taking a tailspin. Is this because of investigation?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 17, 2017, 12:27:29 PM
Good enough reason for a pullback.  300 points above  first support still...no biggie.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 17, 2017, 03:28:32 PM
Good enough reason for a pullback.  300 points above  first support still...no biggie.

It might go lower tomorrow. The justice department appoints special counsel ex FBI director to lead the investigation.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 17, 2017, 05:47:31 PM
Futures are positive.  This will end up being noise.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 19, 2017, 08:15:12 AM
HA, HA, HA, HA...AHHHH...

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on May 19, 2017, 01:32:53 PM
Futures are positive.  This will end up being noise.

Good call.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: nosuchreality on May 20, 2017, 12:33:40 PM
I know people freak out about big round numbers like 300 points, but with the Dow at 21,000, frankly anything less than 400 points is just daily noise, anything less than 200 points isn't even noise.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 30, 2018, 08:15:22 PM
The market is down two days in a row.
Due to the fear in interest rate rising?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on January 30, 2018, 09:46:10 PM
These down days are kind of a relief actually, it’s like when you’ve been anticipating something for so long (even if it’s bad) you just want it to happen already to get it over with. 

At this point I don’t mind a 20% drop over the next few months.  I’ll pick up more shares and ride the wave the rest of the year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 02, 2018, 01:08:01 PM
Time to head for the hills?

The DOW down 670 points. The earnings have been relatively good.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 05, 2018, 11:26:38 AM
Time to bail
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 05, 2018, 12:02:21 PM
The music is playing time to jump ship. (Titanic)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 05, 2018, 12:16:16 PM
anyone sick  of  " winning  " yet  ....
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on February 05, 2018, 12:20:30 PM
anyone sick  of  " winning  " yet  ....

No rain no flowers.

If you didn't have some cash ready to buy more when (and I mean when not if) the market was lower you were a fool.

I remember 1987. We didn't even have all our kids yet. My hubby took my day to work at the tot lot co-op pre-school so I could stay home with a newborn and when he came home I said the market is down a lot (something like 25%) and no one really knew how low it was because the machines couldn't keep up. At that time we had KWHY channel 22 which was business in ENGLISH, much better than CNBC and the tickers were delayed even on the best day.

I told my hubby we should go to Fidelity (there was no online trading then) and put money in so we can buy the close (we only had mutual funds) and he told me I was literally crazy. Assured me we lost everything and a huge depression was coming.

Well what could I say? He was the one with the MBA and the great depression to back him up.

How I wish I had driven myself and they baby to Fidelity and gave them a check that day.



Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: lnc on February 05, 2018, 12:21:12 PM
Down 1000 points as I type, haven't seems something like this for a while.   I've feeling the fun just started.

I'm going to hold for now but starting to buy more once this free fall settle down a little in the coming days or weeks.



Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 05, 2018, 12:33:19 PM
anyone sick  of  " winning  " yet  ....

No rain no flowers.

If you didn't have some cash ready to buy more when (and I mean when not if) the market was lower you were a fool.

No need to get so defensive : )

Someone asked for investment advice on this board 3-4 weeks ago and I suggested -- don't chase the market , sit tight / be defensive as opposed to the rah-rah trump tax cuts bullishness which was largely priced in     

Still stand by it ...The CTA and quant selling is not done yet ... VIX has doubled ... That being said, long term directionality of the market is still up, but ENTRY POINTS MATTER

Anyways these "seeds and flowers and rain " imagery is used by some of the  financial advisors to assuage their client base if they are angry about a sudden drop in their portfolio

market is still up a lot - so this is only giving back modestly .. what takes people by shock is the speed of the carnage
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 05, 2018, 12:36:19 PM
anyone sick  of  " winning  " yet  ....

Your prediction of a stock market crash if Trump was elected finally came true..LOL..  :P
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on February 05, 2018, 12:37:18 PM
anyone sick  of  " winning  " yet  ....

No rain no flowers.

If you didn't have some cash ready to buy more when (and I mean when not if) the market was lower you were a fool.

No need to get so defensive : )

Someone asked for investment advice on this board 3-4 weeks ago and I suggested -- don't chase the market , sit tight / be defensive as opposed to the rah-rah trump tax cuts bullishness which was largely priced in     

Still stand by it ...The CTA and quant selling is not done yet ... VIX has doubled ... That being said, long term directionality of the market is still up, but ENTRY POINTS MATTER

Anyways these "seeds and flowers and rain " imagery is used by some of the  financial advisors to assuage their client base if they are angry about a sudden drop in their portfolio

market is still up a lot - so this is only giving back modestly .. what takes people by shock is the speed of the carnage

Not defensive. Just noting this one day drop is only a real issue to those on margin and they are the ones who tend to freak.

Btw........ markets don't crash from all time highs. Not how it works.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on February 05, 2018, 12:38:49 PM
anyone sick  of  " winning  " yet  ....

No rain no flowers.

If you didn't have some cash ready to buy more when (and I mean when not if) the market was lower you were a fool.

No need to get so defensive : )

Someone asked for investment advice on this board 3-4 weeks ago and I suggested -- don't chase the market , sit tight / be defensive as opposed to the rah-rah trump tax cuts bullishness which was largely priced in     

Still stand by it ...The CTA and quant selling is not done yet ... VIX has doubled ... That being said, long term directionality of the market is still up, but ENTRY POINTS MATTER

Anyways these "seeds and flowers and rain " imagery is used by some of the  financial advisors to assuage their client base if they are angry about a sudden drop in their portfolio

market is still up a lot - so this is only giving back modestly .. what takes people by shock is the speed of the carnage

Not defensive. Just noting this one day drop is only a real issue to those on margin and they are the ones who tend to freak.

Btw........ markets don't crash from all time highs. Not how it works.

And to another point.............................. housing could fall too much to the dismay of anyone who thinks it can't.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 05, 2018, 07:11:18 PM
connecting this equity selloff to housing is a real stretch

Remember my point from before about high velocity ? This is what we are seeing now in equities .

Think of it this way — imagine you are heating  a
Pan on a flame . Equities are like the base of the pan , directly in contact w the flame , While housing is like the handle — far away but eventually gets warm if pan continues to be in contact w the flame .

My point 3 weeks ago was  — it is well and good to say “ buy the dip “.  But with what ?  You can buy it only if you weren’t all in to begin with . This is what i meant by staying on the sidelines . Those who weren’t dismissive and Weren’t drinking the trump koolaid probably came out ahead .

That being said , I don’t mix my money and politics . I am looking to buy in non US equity markets as when we see more contagion from the US spill over there .

US also  I think market is eventually headed higher but will wait to see how the  volatility seller crowd reacts next few days — they are getting their clock cleaned right now
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on February 05, 2018, 11:19:16 PM
Expect another few days of carnage. Future Dow for Tuesday is already 800 + points lost for tomorrow. Real wealth is being made for someone, somewhere else while my 401k tanking in just two days.

Buy on the dip , sure if I have the money. Right now most are in neck deep with the illusion of Trump talk about how well the market is doing and even the nonbeliever in Trump believe that he is the Messiah “Make America Great Again” and give it all she got.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 06, 2018, 06:17:29 AM
Expect another few days of carnage. Future Dow for Tuesday is already 800 + points lost for tomorrow. Real wealth is being made for someone, somewhere else while my 401k tanking in just two days.

Buy on the dip , sure if I have the money. Right now most are in neck deep with the illusion of Trump talk about how well the market is doing and even the nonbeliever in Trump believe that he is the Messiah “Make America Great Again” and give it all she got.

What - you aren't happy with your extra $1.50 per week  ?  Pays for your Costco annual dues :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on February 06, 2018, 08:29:00 AM
Expect another few days of carnage. Future Dow for Tuesday is already 800 + points lost for tomorrow. Real wealth is being made for someone, somewhere else while my 401k tanking in just two days.

Buy on the dip , sure if I have the money. Right now most are in neck deep with the illusion of Trump talk about how well the market is doing and even the nonbeliever in Trump believe that he is the Messiah “Make America Great Again” and give it all she got.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on February 06, 2018, 08:30:37 AM
All the talking heads on CNBC are saying don’t panic, don’t sell, stay the course.  This of course means we’re in for a much bigger drop.  Once they start saying people should take money off the table, readjust allocation, sell most of their equities, only then will we be headed back up. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: nosuchreality on February 06, 2018, 09:25:51 AM
I know with  all the breathless TV reporting about drops people are concerned about this but I have a simp!e (sheesh i want to shut shot shit can this autocorrect) just question.

Did businesses (so tired of Silk) any of the trading curbs trigger for the broadcasters (ditto) markets not including individual stock circuit breakers?

The media and babbling heads still seem to act like the DOW is sub 10,000 and not 25,000.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on February 06, 2018, 12:46:05 PM
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on February 06, 2018, 02:02:44 PM
So glad that Obama took back the economy today and put us back on track!

#thankful
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 06, 2018, 02:24:40 PM
So glad that Obama took back the economy today and put us back on track!

#thankful

I guess it was the CNBC's "markets in turmoil" special ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 07, 2018, 01:08:09 PM
So glad that Obama took back the economy today and put us back on track!

#thankful

What happened today ?  You guys got bored of Obama so soon and put trump back in charge ? :)

See how silly this is ?  hitching yourself to a bull market (supposedly) 9 years in the making ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on February 07, 2018, 01:59:08 PM
So glad that Obama took back the economy today and put us back on track!

#thankful

What happened today ?  You guys got bored of Obama so soon and put trump back in charge ? :)

See how silly this is ?  hitching yourself to a bull market (supposedly) 9 years in the making ...

Fear not, the Trump Rally is more than intact, its stronger.  A pullback from the highs was not only desirable but necessary.  The decks are being cleared for higher highs.  Stay invested my friend, this market will be higher by the end of this year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 07, 2018, 05:34:04 PM
The point I am making is --- there is no "Trump  rally or " Obama rally "   . Presidents don't have much long term impact on the stock market .  It is the business cycle and financial conditions

I know many rich people think they know otherwise (because they are rich , they think they must be smart)  but there  are  forces way behind the presidents control shaping up the global economy . 

this rally has legs because it is being supported by Emerging Markets  and Europe which is where companies in the S&P500 derive big chunk of their revenue  .  They are finally coming out of years and years of weak growth and recessions .  Add to that  $ weak = MORE revenue from abroad, also good for oil prices , good for Emerging Market currencies .  The tax cuts added fuel to the already burning fire. 

And while we are at it, someone please change the title of this thread :) The Dow is as irrelevant an index as CDs or DVD players .  It is a meaningless index used by the dumb mainstream financial media (and also that boomers love it) .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on February 07, 2018, 05:54:45 PM
The point I am making is --- there is no "Trump  rally or " Obama rally "   . Presidents don't have much long term impact on the stock market .  It is the business cycle and financial conditions

I know many rich people think they know otherwise (because they are rich , they think they must be smart)  but there  are  forces way behind the presidents control shaping up the global economy . 

this rally has legs because it is being supported by Emerging Markets  and Europe which is where companies in the S&P500 derive big chunk of their revenue  .  They are finally coming out of years and years of weak growth and recessions .  Add to that  $ weak = MORE revenue from abroad, also good for oil prices , good for Emerging Market currencies .  The tax cuts added fuel to the already burning fire. 

And while we are at it, someone please change the title of this thread :) The Dow is as irrelevant an index as CDs or DVD players .  It is a meaningless index used by the dumb mainstream financial media (and also that boomers love it) .

Agreed but imposing a huge tax hike at the end of a boom cycle is a recipe for inflationary disaster.  USD plummeting in value and the economy is on the verge of overheating. 

But yeah...rich people have more money!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on February 07, 2018, 09:50:28 PM
I think this bares repeating.

from my January letter...

So what lies ahead?  As I told many of you during the year. Presidents inherit the business cycle they inherit.  If there is recession he gets the blame. If expansion he tries to take credit.  This market was going to rise no matter who won. The influence of an executive policy comes in the form of magnitude.  He can throw water on it and slow it down, or gas on it and increase the reaction.  This President is throwing gas in the form of lower taxes and regulations.  I feel this is net positive for our markets this year and they will again advance.  Interest rates will rise at a faster pace than most think but fear not,  that is a good thing overall.  Normalized rates are a sign of a healthy economy.  I’m off the precious metals positions and I feel energy will find stability here.  This year will only strengthen domestically and I still shy from foreign investments. Keep it here in dollars and the good old US of A.  Most surprises this year may be on the positive side. Again, I caveat this letter that our direction can be altered by any number of unexpected events (major terrorist strike) but all things being equal I think we are in for a well-deserved run.  What makes me so optimistic?  Most of you know what a contrarian I am and look at the mood of most on Wall Street..


Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 08, 2018, 10:11:30 AM
I think this bares repeating.

from my January letter...

So what lies ahead?  As I told many of you during the year. Presidents inherit the business cycle they inherit.  If there is recession he gets the blame. If expansion he tries to take credit.  This market was going to rise no matter who won. The influence of an executive policy comes in the form of magnitude.  He can throw water on it and slow it down, or gas on it and increase the reaction.  This President is throwing gas in the form of lower taxes and regulations.  I feel this is net positive for our markets this year and they will again advance.  Interest rates will rise at a faster pace than most think but fear not,  that is a good thing overall.  Normalized rates are a sign of a healthy economy.  I’m off the precious metals positions and I feel energy will find stability here.  This year will only strengthen domestically and I still shy from foreign investments. Keep it here in dollars and the good old US of A.  Most surprises this year may be on the positive side. Again, I caveat this letter that our direction can be altered by any number of unexpected events (major terrorist strike) but all things being equal I think we are in for a well-deserved run.  What makes me so optimistic?  Most of you know what a contrarian I am and look at the mood of most on Wall Street..





I am with you on that contrary to Wall Street approach

The best thing investors can do for themselves is not pay attention to the talking  heads and look at the fundamentals themselves , or if they cannot , stick w disciplined heuristic approach — I. E  . Investment horizons and entry points matter.

Never let your money mix w your politics
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on February 08, 2018, 10:12:48 AM
I would stay away.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 08, 2018, 10:27:31 AM
And while we are at it, someone please change the title of this thread :) The Dow is as irrelevant an index as CDs or DVD players .  It is a meaningless index used by the dumb mainstream financial media (and also that boomers love it) .

Well, I still use CD's and DVD's and I still like tracking the Dow.  Although when tracking my own performance, I measure against the S&P.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on February 08, 2018, 10:42:46 AM
And while we are at it, someone please change the title of this thread :) The Dow is as irrelevant an index as CDs or DVD players .  It is a meaningless index used by the dumb mainstream financial media (and also that boomers love it) .

Well, I still use CD's and DVD's and I still like tracking the Dow.  Although when tracking my own performance, I measure against the S&P.

We already had this argument a year ago on the other Dow thread...

Well, the general public (and the news) still watches this index and if you want to use something more accurate watch the S&P.  That index is up 5.58% this year and the Dow is up 5.29% so far, so in actuality they are pretty close in telling us what the markets are up to so far this year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 08, 2018, 10:52:03 AM
I would stay away.

Yes , agree in general .  I have stayed away this year (took my equities down around Halloween last year )  . Missed some of the upside since then but that’s ok after multiple years of appreciation .

But , if you were interested in adding risk here , would seriously start looking at individual stocks or ETFs that have gotten dislocated w the Vix bloodbath . Economic conditions are still favorable overall , trump or no trump .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on February 08, 2018, 11:36:36 AM
And while we are at it, someone please change the title of this thread :) The Dow is as irrelevant an index as CDs or DVD players .  It is a meaningless index used by the dumb mainstream financial media (and also that boomers love it) .

Well, I still use CD's and DVD's and I still like tracking the Dow.  Although when tracking my own performance, I measure against the S&P.

We already had this argument a year ago on the other Dow thread...

Well, the general public (and the news) still watches this index and if you want to use something more accurate watch the S&P.  That index is up 5.58% this year and the Dow is up 5.29% so far, so in actuality they are pretty close in telling us what the markets are up to so far this year.

The truth is there's no such thing as a perfect index.  The S&P is notorious for adding companies just before they implode.  This has been a drag on index performance several times over the years.  The reason is that whatever hot sector has been leading the economy tends to get overrepresented in the index, and then that same sector tends to get hit hardest by the subsequent recession.

Also, it has been shown that an equal weight S&P fund does better than following the cap-weighted index methodology.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 08, 2018, 12:12:30 PM
The Irvine index is all you need to follow. :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on February 08, 2018, 12:20:18 PM
Who's in???!

(https://i.imgur.com/u37KvJv.png)

https://www.predictit.org/
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 08, 2018, 01:09:02 PM
S&P back to my Halloween sale levels !

But seriously , I am now adding some risk here .

Any single stock or ETF recos ? High conviction views  ?  Besides being long Irvine in general :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on February 08, 2018, 01:37:14 PM
S&P back to my Halloween sale levels !

But seriously , I am now adding some risk here .

Any single stock or ETF recos ? High conviction views  ?  Besides being long Irvine in general :)

One of the most manipulated stocks out there is apple. OI is considerably higher so if it drops again tomorrow I think it closes higher than today (maybe as high as 160). Maybe good for a 5% intraday move if it hits 152.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on February 09, 2018, 11:52:40 AM
At this point...just looking for bargain.  Losses already happened...no point of locking them in now.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 09, 2018, 05:14:05 PM
picked up some AAPL, AMLP ETF, SDY earlier today.  Will look to add others next week, particularly some EM related ETFs ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on February 10, 2018, 05:29:52 PM
We gotta ne headed much lower.  This guy Art Cashin says we hit the bottom and he’s always wrong, I mean always... he’s the worst investment advisor I’ve ever seen.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/art-cashin-in-my-50-years-experience-stock-market-is-bottoming-out.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 10, 2018, 06:08:16 PM
Art Cashin  is worthless ... but there is an interesting counterpoint from Tom Aspray , one of the better chartists out there.  This article does get into the nitty gritty of moving averages etc., but worth a read if so inclined.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2018/02/10/are-the-wall-street-strategists-finally-right/#36a721f62dca

Are the Wall Street Strategists Finally Right?

Tom Aspray , CONTRIBUTOR
 
As stocks plunged all week, there seemed to be little concern on Wall Street, as almost all of the experts on financial television felt it would be a buying opportunity. There was a little more concern when the S&P 500 reached its 200-day MA on Friday, but still they were bit turning bearish. Historically, Wall Street strategists have not been bullish at correction lows, but does the technical outlook suggest that they're right this time?

The steep decline in January and February of 2016 had convinced many that the market had started a new bear market. In “Don’t Follow Those Bearish Traders”, I commented that “The high level of bearish sentiment and heavy put buying at the February 11th low coincided with the bullish signals from the market internals.” This created the perfect environment for a market bottom.”

The fact that most on Wall Street did not believe the rally and were looking to sell higher did not alter my outlook, in fact, it was reassuring. There have been a number of sharp corrections in this bull market. These corrections ended when the technical studies gave positive signals, but these signals were often accompanied by dire predictions from most Wall Street analysts.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on February 11, 2018, 09:22:53 PM
Thanks fortune, it was a good read... I think this part sounds about right...

“The more likely alternative, however, is for a more complex correction, where the averages rebound enough to calm the markets, and then we get one more drop before the bottom is complete and the uptrend resumes.”

Should be an interesting week none the less.  Futures up about 140 as I type, but could just as easy be down 500 at market open.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 12, 2018, 07:53:35 AM
No problem .

For color , I am also adding to some emerging market ETFs today  . That’s classic “baby w bath water” type trade.  EM fundamentals are still pretty solid and better than the more mature economic cycle in the US .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 14, 2018, 07:49:39 AM
Near term trajectory is now more visible . Risk on

For those looking for income , some of the closed end funds and junk bond funds also seem decent

Economy is on a good path , and that means bottom won’t fall off any time soon , technicals are what I was worried about . Less so now .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 15, 2018, 07:26:44 PM
The price action today was as clear a signal as we could get -- we surpassed the 50-day moving average (DMA)  on S&P

So what does this show --

market is very healthy -- a technical selloff initiated by quants , got digested and then fundamentals stepped in and we bounced off 200 DMA on the lows and now back to crossing 50 DMA

this is a textbook case on charting if anyone needed one. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 23, 2018, 01:29:48 PM
We are back to the 200 day-moving-average danger zone for S&P.   If we bounce off here , fine.  If not,  will be a break in the trend line  and more pain ahead ...

Trump really knows how to kill the golden goose ... the idiot just cant sit still for a change.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 23, 2018, 01:48:16 PM
We are back to the 200 day-moving-average danger zone for S&P.   If we bounce off here , fine.  If not,  will be a break in the trend line  and more pain ahead ...

Trump really knows how to kill the golden goose ... the idiot just cant sit still for a change.

There would not have been a golden goose without Trump.  The S&P has returned 20%+ and the Dow 30%+ since election day.  Enjoy your gains and stop the whining.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 23, 2018, 02:44:20 PM
We are back to the 200 day-moving-average danger zone for S&P.   If we bounce off here , fine.  If not,  will be a break in the trend line  and more pain ahead ...

Trump really knows how to kill the golden goose ... the idiot just cant sit still for a change.

There would not have been a golden goose without Trump.  The S&P has returned 20%+ and the Dow 30%+ since election day.  Enjoy your gains and stop the whining.

Did you enjoy your (even bigger) gains under Obama ? Yeah right

Did you enjoy even bigger gains in Brazil or other emerging markets where trump is not even in charge ?

Stop ranting if you don’t have anything useful to add besides knee jerk adulation for your messiah .

Just stick w what you know and go back to complaining about the other side ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 23, 2018, 04:55:32 PM
We are back to the 200 day-moving-average danger zone for S&P.   If we bounce off here , fine.  If not,  will be a break in the trend line  and more pain ahead ...

Trump really knows how to kill the golden goose ... the idiot just cant sit still for a change.

There would not have been a golden goose without Trump.  The S&P has returned 20%+ and the Dow 30%+ since election day.  Enjoy your gains and stop the whining.

Did you enjoy your (even bigger) gains under Obama ? Yeah right

Did you enjoy even bigger gains in Brazil or other emerging markets where trump is not even in charge ?

Stop ranting if you don’t have anything useful to add besides knee jerk adulation for your messiah .

Just stick w what you know and go back to complaining about the other side ...

Sure, I bought my primary residence in 2010 and stayed invested in stocks for most of Oh Bummer's presidency.  I also bought two rental duplexes.

I rarely complain about "the other side".  Whenever I have criticized Obama, it has been to criticize his policies with specific reasons given why I disagree with them.

You and your cheerleader should take that approach.  Stop making unfair attacks (like worrying about a one day drop in stock prices) and form thoughtful arguments that add to the debate.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 23, 2018, 05:25:25 PM
We are back to the 200 day-moving-average danger zone for S&P.   If we bounce off here , fine.  If not,  will be a break in the trend line  and more pain ahead ...

Trump really knows how to kill the golden goose ... the idiot just cant sit still for a change.

There would not have been a golden goose without Trump.  The S&P has returned 20%+ and the Dow 30%+ since election day.  Enjoy your gains and stop the whining.

Did you enjoy your (even bigger) gains under Obama ? Yeah right

Did you enjoy even bigger gains in Brazil or other emerging markets where trump is not even in charge ?

Stop ranting if you don’t have anything useful to add besides knee jerk adulation for your messiah .

Just stick w what you know and go back to complaining about the other side ...

Sure, I bought my primary residence in 2010 and stayed invested in stocks for most of Oh Bummer's presidency.  I also bought two rental duplexes.

I rarely complain about "the other side".  Whenever I have criticized Obama, it has been to criticize his policies with specific reasons given why I disagree with them.

You and your cheerleader should take that approach.  Stop making unfair attacks (like worrying about a one day drop in stock prices) and form thoughtful arguments that add to the debate.

Do you know why the equity market is dropping ? Why don’t you add some thoughtful comments to enlighten us rather than sniping every time to get your jollies .

Market is correctly concerned about increased trade war risk and increased geopolitical risk . Given our large deficits which are about to balloon even more , we need the global consumer now more than ever to buy our stuff . And to continue buying our debt. Pissing contest with the entire world and specially with China that holds 1.5 trn of our debt is not exactly a genius move , if anyone can see  beyond their partisan  blinders

This was supposed to be the breakout year for global growth especially after the tax cut and stimulus gasoline that was thrown on top of the fire . Now the nitwit is throwing cold water to undo it .  Kudlow must be tearing his few remaining hair out .

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on March 24, 2018, 03:20:15 PM
In my opinion, the only sector I see an upside is oil. (And that’s a stretch)
Because of the adminstration policies and his recent cabinet appointments.

What do you think?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 24, 2018, 06:23:31 PM
In my opinion, the only sector I see an upside is oil. (And that’s a stretch)
Because of the adminstration policies and his recent cabinet appointments.

What do you think?

Oil has really high speculative interest right now or “spec length” (for all zero hedge readers out there). So can also flip on a dime if speculators head for exit all at the same time . But agree w your basic premise — with Bolton s appointment geopolitical risk is high (esp wrt Iran) and oil can hang in here for atleast a while .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 24, 2018, 07:15:15 PM
Little long post but need to set the table straight here when there is so much misinformation floating around on this subject supposedly from people who should know better.

Over the long long run, stock markets have to go up - why ? 

Inflation
population growth
productivity growth (right now, this part is low)

It is just mathematical -- doesn't matter who is president or what policies are being implemented - now the rate of change can be fast or slow depending on what part of the cycle we are in. 

Now try telling that to somebody who invested money in Nasdaq QQQ in March 2000 but couldn't recover it until 2016 -- now if that person needed any of this money for say a medical emergency, he or she is SOL

So entry and exit points matter -- doesn't take a genius to figure that out

Financial advisors who tell their clients just to buy and forever are doing their clients great disservice.  They are also proven right over long periods of time - doesn't mean they are smarter than others - just that this math works in favor of stocks over that long period.  You dont need to pay a financial advisor to tell you that simple fact.

Now could someone have earned income using bonds (whatever variety) and which would have perhaps been safer ? Yes and this is why stocks need to have a risk premium over bonds  -- stocks don't just  need to return positive upside but they need to beat bonds by a wide margin to really make it worth their while

and to get their meaningful upside, it helps to be a bit more nimble with your money

Dont believe the adage that you cannot ever time the market - thats a lazy answer from someone who doesn't want to put in the effort

What you cannot do (or cant repeatedly do) is perfectly time the top or the bottom - but to make money you dont need to do that.  You need to be able to use the trend to your advantage, thats it

There are many passive investors in the market hostage to their investment process - pension funds, insurance companies, large institutional investors , who always have to have a certain percentage in stocks all the time

As an individual investor, you don't have to follow that herd, you can be a bit more savvy. 

That means looking at charts, prices, momentum.  When you have every single mainstream publication telling you to buy stocks, maybe its time to pull back a little and book some profits .  When CNBC is telling you nonstop the worlds coming to an end , maybe time to put some more of your capital back in the game.  But it does mean you need to pay attention to what is going on, at-least on a weekly basis, if not daily. 

Now back to the current topic.  Trump's actions so far in 2017 have done nothing but added fuel to the fire, so tactically it made sense to remain invested.   the topping out prices happened in Jan when tax cuts fully got priced in.  When the market sold off but then bounced back off its 200 day moving average in mid Feb it was a good signal liquidity is intact and time to add more risk (which I did myself) . 

What Trump has done recently is put a damper on the liquidity trend line. If global trade retrenches, doesnt matter how attractive multiple your favorite stock is trading at, we will continue  selling off till we find a new circuit breaker  ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Halos on March 24, 2018, 11:29:49 PM
Little long post but need to set the table straight here when there is so much misinformation floating around on this subject supposedly from people who should know better.

Over the long long run, stock markets have to go up - why ? 

Inflation
population growth
productivity growth (right now, this part is low)

It is just mathematical -- doesn't matter who is president or what policies are being implemented - now the rate of change can be fast or slow depending on what part of the cycle we are in. 

Now try telling that to somebody who invested money in Nasdaq QQQ in March 2000 but couldn't recover it until 2016 -- now if that person needed any of this money for say a medical emergency, he or she is SOL

So entry and exit points matter -- doesn't take a genius to figure that out

Financial advisors who tell their clients just to buy and forever are doing their clients great disservice.  They are also proven right over long periods of time - doesn't mean they are smarter than others - just that this math works in favor of stocks over that long period.  You dont need to pay a financial advisor to tell you that simple fact.

Now could someone have earned income using bonds (whatever variety) and which would have perhaps been safer ? Yes and this is why stocks need to have a risk premium over bonds  -- stocks don't just  need to return positive upside but they need to beat bonds by a wide margin to really make it worth their while

and to get their meaningful upside, it helps to be a bit more nimble with your money

Dont believe the adage that you cannot ever time the market - thats a lazy answer from someone who doesn't want to put in the effort

What you cannot do (or cant repeatedly do) is perfectly time the top or the bottom - but to make money you dont need to do that.  You need to be able to use the trend to your advantage, thats it

There are many passive investors in the market hostage to their investment process - pension funds, insurance companies, large institutional investors , who always have to have a certain percentage in stocks all the time

As an individual investor, you don't have to follow that herd, you can be a bit more savvy. 

That means looking at charts, prices, momentum.  When you have every single mainstream publication telling you to buy stocks, maybe its time to pull back a little and book some profits .  When CNBC is telling you nonstop the worlds coming to an end , maybe time to put some more of your capital back in the game.  But it does mean you need to pay attention to what is going on, at-least on a weekly basis, if not daily. 

Now back to the current topic.  Trump's actions so far in 2017 have done nothing but added fuel to the fire, so tactically it made sense to remain invested.   the topping out prices happened in Jan when tax cuts fully got priced in.  When the market sold off but then bounced back off its 200 day moving average in mid Feb it was a good signal liquidity is intact and time to add more risk (which I did myself) . 

What Trump has done recently is put a damper on the liquidity trend line. If global trade retrenches, doesnt matter how attractive multiple your favorite stock is trading at, we will continue  selling off till we find a new circuit breaker  ...

if you're a trader, you're loving the volatility. if not....time to sell. i'm sure there are "investors" in japan still waiting for Nikkei 40k again :D
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 25, 2018, 02:21:56 PM
Little long post but need to set the table straight here when there is so much misinformation floating around on this subject supposedly from people who should know better.

Over the long long run, stock markets have to go up - why ? 

Inflation
population growth
productivity growth (right now, this part is low)

It is just mathematical -- doesn't matter who is president or what policies are being implemented - now the rate of change can be fast or slow depending on what part of the cycle we are in. 

Now try telling that to somebody who invested money in Nasdaq QQQ in March 2000 but couldn't recover it until 2016 -- now if that person needed any of this money for say a medical emergency, he or she is SOL

So entry and exit points matter -- doesn't take a genius to figure that out

Financial advisors who tell their clients just to buy and forever are doing their clients great disservice.  They are also proven right over long periods of time - doesn't mean they are smarter than others - just that this math works in favor of stocks over that long period.  You dont need to pay a financial advisor to tell you that simple fact.

Now could someone have earned income using bonds (whatever variety) and which would have perhaps been safer ? Yes and this is why stocks need to have a risk premium over bonds  -- stocks don't just  need to return positive upside but they need to beat bonds by a wide margin to really make it worth their while

and to get their meaningful upside, it helps to be a bit more nimble with your money

Dont believe the adage that you cannot ever time the market - thats a lazy answer from someone who doesn't want to put in the effort

What you cannot do (or cant repeatedly do) is perfectly time the top or the bottom - but to make money you dont need to do that.  You need to be able to use the trend to your advantage, thats it

There are many passive investors in the market hostage to their investment process - pension funds, insurance companies, large institutional investors , who always have to have a certain percentage in stocks all the time

As an individual investor, you don't have to follow that herd, you can be a bit more savvy. 

That means looking at charts, prices, momentum.  When you have every single mainstream publication telling you to buy stocks, maybe its time to pull back a little and book some profits .  When CNBC is telling you nonstop the worlds coming to an end , maybe time to put some more of your capital back in the game.  But it does mean you need to pay attention to what is going on, at-least on a weekly basis, if not daily. 

Now back to the current topic.  Trump's actions so far in 2017 have done nothing but added fuel to the fire, so tactically it made sense to remain invested.   the topping out prices happened in Jan when tax cuts fully got priced in.  When the market sold off but then bounced back off its 200 day moving average in mid Feb it was a good signal liquidity is intact and time to add more risk (which I did myself) . 

What Trump has done recently is put a damper on the liquidity trend line. If global trade retrenches, doesnt matter how attractive multiple your favorite stock is trading at, we will continue  selling off till we find a new circuit breaker  ...

if you're a trader, you're loving the volatility. if not....time to sell. i'm sure there are "investors" in japan still waiting for Nikkei 40k again :D

Yes, this is exactly what I mean ... entry and exit points matter ... otherwise that buy and hold forever truly becomes a forever wait to recoup your losses .

But Actually nikkei  has recovered .. in dollar terms . Remember also japans currency is a lot stronger now than it was in the 80s. But japan also is a victim of the biggest intractable problem — demographics and aging , a problem uneducated right wingers (the people trump loves) want to import to the US via too restrictive immigration policies .




Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Loco_local on March 25, 2018, 02:31:56 PM
Quote
But japan also is a victim of the biggest intractable problem — demographics and aging , a problem uneducated right wingers (the people trump loves) want to import to the US via too restrictive immigration policies

Not to worry. I heard on NPR Japan is already hard at work developing robots to solve the elder care dilemma.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 26, 2018, 01:19:48 PM
We neatly bounced off the 200-day moving average yet again,  in a textbook fashion.  Machines have truly taken over it would seem :) .  Anyways , this is a good setup now heading into what will likely be a good first quarter earnings season  ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on March 26, 2018, 03:32:14 PM
We neatly bounced off the 200-day moving average yet again,  in a textbook fashion.  Machines have truly taken over it would seem :) .  Anyways , this is a good setup now heading into what will likely be a good first quarter earnings season  ...

Jim Cramer credits the Stormy Daniels interview with raising the market's spirits.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on March 26, 2018, 03:33:34 PM
What’s in the cd that was tweeted?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 26, 2018, 07:01:15 PM
What’s in the cd that was tweeted?

Don’t know maybe something saved for next time to get even more mileage out of it ....

but with evangelicals now comparing trump to king David I can certainly see the hand of God in today’s rally .. I do wonder what magazines (maybe made of Stone?) they used for spanking purposes in those days ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on March 26, 2018, 08:25:21 PM
Who cares? Clearly, not the markets.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on March 28, 2018, 01:56:13 PM
What’s up with the tech wreck? ;)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on March 28, 2018, 02:25:14 PM
Mostly based in FANG stocks, and NVDA. Each has a unique problem in addition to getting a bit out over their skis. FB is under investigation, AMZN is a Trump tax target, and TSLA has its own problems. In any event it’s ok to bring these prices back to earth, as long as it stays within the sector.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on March 28, 2018, 02:36:16 PM
For the newbs. People should care because a lot of 401k and mutual funds, etc.. own these stocks.  ;)

Just an fyi
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: nosuchreality on March 28, 2018, 07:08:30 PM
Yes, noobs need to panic because the big four are crumbling.  One year returns after the recent beatjng are 96%, 67%, 22% and 8%.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: zubs on March 29, 2018, 09:59:32 AM
I like the lesson that prison movie gave with Andy and Red as the main characters.  Pressure and time.
Sure my stocks took a hit, but I'm using the Buffet strategy of never selling because retirement is still 25 yrs away.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on March 29, 2018, 10:09:30 AM
But sometimes, you might have to shift your strategy.
For example look at GE.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 29, 2018, 10:22:20 AM
Bottom line is — the upward channel and trend line is still holding above 200 day moving averages —meaning the trade war has not dented market perception of current bullish cycle or that with the gaziliion exemptions being granted, it is now being perceived to be toothless .

The FAANG stocks by themselves aren’t enough to cause a broader market deval

You don’t need any hocus pocus about valuation / cheapness or trump rally etc to understand the trend . Everything is ultimately reflected in price and charts that  tells you all ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on March 29, 2018, 10:25:37 AM
that and a big God Damned poster...a wise strategy indeed.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on March 29, 2018, 10:27:09 AM
So would you buy or hold or sell FB?

Have you seen videos of Mark Z. giving speeches on YouTube?
It may matter because when he might potentially testify before Congress.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on March 29, 2018, 10:32:06 AM
I traded through it after its initial collapse.  Now, don't own a share directly.  I have never been comfortable with the monetization model and the barriers to entry.  I remember MySpace. Call me a fuddy duddy, I don't really like social media. I am more comfortable making money in things I have a better understanding of.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 29, 2018, 10:48:24 AM
So would you buy or hold or sell FB?

Have you seen videos of Mark Z. giving speeches on YouTube?
It may matter because when he might potentially testify before Congress.

Not sure if you addressed this to me but I am not really a believer in timing single name stocks — very few people have an edge . Rather trade market and broad sector ETFs where trends and cycle turns can be better  identified as opposed to worrying day and night about your favorite name blowing up .

As to tech , I am a believer in adding apple whenvever it sells off — to me , it is the only “value play” in tech
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: zubs on March 29, 2018, 11:06:54 AM
See you soon Mark!
(http://lovelace-media.imgix.net/uploads/259/da8e6e30-0a0e-0132-07c7-0eae5eefacd9.jpg?w=790&h=550&fit=max&auto=format&q=70)

can't take credit for this....saw it on reddit.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on April 02, 2018, 11:10:36 AM
Another fun day on Wall Street.  Enjoy.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on April 02, 2018, 12:29:01 PM
Another fun day on Wall Street.  Enjoy.

Fun time indeed!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on April 02, 2018, 12:47:56 PM
Another fun day on Wall Street.  Enjoy.

The cards are stacked against us! ;)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on April 02, 2018, 02:20:20 PM
Spotify stock will debut tomorrow.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on April 02, 2018, 08:11:45 PM
broke the key support level of 200 day moving average today and now all bets are off.  It says a lot that machines didn't feel the need to panic buy SPX all way past its 200DMA into the close, something which they dutifully did twice before in the last eight weeks.

what I also find amusing about this environment is watching these talking heads and financial media types and financial advisors try to contort themselves every day to explain why the market went up 60 and next day it went down 80 and then right after again went up 70 ....

Very hard for people to admit that they simply don't know.  Human mind being what it is, has to take comfort in narratives and stories.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on April 02, 2018, 09:17:10 PM
Cmon dow 20k!!! Mostly in cash right now. I did pick up SSO today when the market was down about 600 points. Will continue to pick up more. I agree with morekaos, I think we will go back to 26,500 - 27,000
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on April 03, 2018, 07:29:51 AM
I think ok to add some now since you can never perfectly time the  bottom anyways , but keep watching the feb intra day lows - if we break below them there is more machine-driven selling to come ...

but another slap in the face for those directly correlating tax cuts to near term  stock market gains as we are now several percentage points below December levels.  this is why explaining every move in the markets is a fools errand ...  never mix your politics with your $$

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on April 03, 2018, 10:16:46 AM
Spotify stock will debut tomorrow.

Say what! Spotify debut stock trading at around $160.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on April 03, 2018, 11:03:31 AM
This should be interesting. The stock isn't really up $26.00 as the $132 pricing was pulled out of Goldman Sachs ass.  It's been trading in about a $13 range but if someone decides to sell, without syndicate support for the price, it could be bombs away!!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on April 03, 2018, 07:38:47 PM
The chart tells you all you need to know ... see how neatly it is hugging the 200-day moving average every time we have sold off.   Now next time someone tries to talk about fundamentals ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on June 25, 2018, 09:07:34 AM
Buckle up and get ready for the ride!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on June 25, 2018, 01:11:35 PM
Wait...I thought the trade wars were not actually going to happen! 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on July 25, 2018, 04:06:26 PM
FB dived after earnings.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on July 25, 2018, 04:09:35 PM
FB dived after earnings.

Last I checked was 20 percent down aftermarket

If this is how it opens , will be an earthquake tomorrow

The F in FAANG  getting destroyed won’t be pretty
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: jajji on July 25, 2018, 04:52:10 PM
Picked up more FB afterhours for a 20% discount.

There are over 1 billion instagram users now lol.

 


Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on July 25, 2018, 05:11:35 PM
Picked up more FB afterhours for a 20% discount.

There are over 1 billion instagram users now lol.

Taking action nice
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on July 25, 2018, 05:21:05 PM
Picked up more FB afterhours for a 20% discount.

There are over 1 billion instagram users now lol.

Yes exactly . FB owns both instagram and WhatsApp

The only issue is does it change from growth to value territory — good cash flow , but forward earnings outlook not as great
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on July 25, 2018, 10:25:31 PM
Holy Crap those FB $180 puts with Friday expiry were .07c at close, potentially worth $8 each tomorrow at open...

Invest $1,000 today worth $100,000 in the morning.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on July 26, 2018, 06:39:15 AM
Which high growth story is left then?

Picked up more FB afterhours for a 20% discount.

There are over 1 billion instagram users now lol.

Yes exactly . FB owns both instagram and WhatsApp

The only issue is does it change from growth to value territory — good cash flow , but forward earnings outlook not as great
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: daedalus on July 26, 2018, 08:32:43 AM
doh!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on July 26, 2018, 10:31:31 AM
Holy Crap those FB $180 puts with Friday expiry were .07c at close, potentially worth $8 each tomorrow at open...

Invest $1,000 today worth $100,000 in the morning.

Came here to see if you bought puts yesterday.

Why didn't we think of doing that with the privacy thing and stock at an all time high?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on September 05, 2018, 07:10:19 PM
Tech stocks got slammed today. Congress grilled Facebook and Twitter. (Google rep didn’t show up - to be continued)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: WTTCHMN on September 15, 2018, 09:35:36 PM
The Next Financial Calamity Is Coming. Here’s What to Watch.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/12/business/the-next-recession-financial-crisis.html
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on September 25, 2018, 09:37:55 AM
Not since pre-911...interesting.

Consumer confidence hits 138.4 in September, vs. 132 estimate

September's index print is near the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000, the Conference Board said Tuesday.
"These historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending, and should be welcome news for retailers as they begin gearing up for the holiday season," says Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/25/consumer-confidence-september.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/25/consumer-confidence-september.html)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: mads on September 25, 2018, 09:59:44 AM
lest we get too carried away,
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-investors-should-be-wary-of-consumer-confidence-at-an-18-year-high-2018-09-25 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-investors-should-be-wary-of-consumer-confidence-at-an-18-year-high-2018-09-25)
Quote
Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, recently wrote that confidence was “ at levels normally indicating a recession is imminent.”
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on September 25, 2018, 03:59:30 PM
Exactly ,  “consumer confidence “ is not generating income in your retirement portfolio nor can it be sold to create actual wealth. Can’t believe I wasted a post even taking about this ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on September 25, 2018, 04:20:23 PM
Exactly ,  “consumer confidence “ is not generating income in your retirement portfolio nor can it be sold to create actual wealth. Can’t believe I wasted a post even taking about this ...

higher consumer confidence = stronger usd

strong usd = ??

please, go on  :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on September 25, 2018, 06:35:34 PM
Exactly ,  “consumer confidence “ is not generating income in your retirement portfolio nor can it be sold to create actual wealth. Can’t believe I wasted a post even taking about this ...

higher consumer confidence = stronger usd

strong usd = ??

please, go on  :)

See you are back to your normal self now

That scotus thread had you become all stuffy and serious , like a “values voter “  :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on October 10, 2018, 12:16:42 PM
So where is that consumer confidence when you need it

On a different note , if you are already fully invested in the market because you love trump , how do you buy this dip ? Lever up your credit cards for MAGA .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on October 10, 2018, 12:32:27 PM
So glad that Obama took back the economy today and put us back on track!

#thankful

What happened today ?  You guys got bored of Obama so soon and put trump back in charge ? :)

See how silly this is ?  hitching yourself to a bull market (supposedly) 9 years in the making ...

Fear not, the Trump Rally is more than intact, its stronger.  A pullback from the highs was not only desirable but necessary.  The decks are being cleared for higher highs.  Stay invested my friend, this market will be higher by the end of this year.

Lets see..Dow was at 24892 last you cried wolf...we'll be just fine,    Smoke if you got em.


https://youtu.be/Ky1HiwZjYKE (https://youtu.be/Ky1HiwZjYKE)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on October 10, 2018, 12:55:53 PM
This is why it matters to actually read , which arguably is hard to do for you since you are typing while wearing colored inks glasses  - i actually recommended going long s&p back then after the feb correction

The point is , it pays to be incremental and methodical in your approach as opposed to loading up based on your political views Or some random number generator of “consumer confidence” because you read it on drudge or federalist
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on October 10, 2018, 12:58:18 PM
I am an active manager, I'm never "all in" or "all out"...I get paid to date and deliver, not marry and settle down. >:D ;)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on October 10, 2018, 01:29:36 PM
who knew sears announcing they're filing for bankruptcy could affect the market like this??
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on October 10, 2018, 01:32:10 PM
What didn't happen?

Flight to quality. For the most part Bonds and MBS's just laid there today. I had expected a 3.15 handle at least on the 10y

My .02c
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on October 10, 2018, 06:44:50 PM
Market was pretty predictable today, every bounce was followed by a lower bottom.

Bought some SPY puts and QQQ puts mid day that were already up about 80% on the day and finished another 20% up or so.

Feels good to make a few hundred extra on a day when you lose thousands in your 401k :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on October 10, 2018, 07:00:24 PM
Are we still sticking to 27000 by end of the year predictions?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on October 10, 2018, 07:05:27 PM
Are we still sticking to 27000 by end of the year predictions?

Stop joking
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on October 10, 2018, 07:23:47 PM
Are we still sticking to 27000 by end of the year predictions?

Not a problem
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on October 10, 2018, 07:35:39 PM
Even though there would be a blue change in November?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on October 10, 2018, 08:09:42 PM
Even though there would be a blue change in November?


Maybe the stock market is predicting bad things coming our way with that blue wave.


All I knows is the day I left for my daughter's wedding in CO the market was at it's high and today is my first day back and now look what happened! LOL!


She married that cowboy she always said she would marry (which we all asked her how u gonna find yourself a cowboy in Cali?) and it seems to be a match made in heaven, so I'm happy...…… three girls and three awesome son in laws.


I can thank the crappy economy a decade ago for the two of them being together. Had it not been for the fact she got out of college at a time when teachers were being laid off she wouldn't have ventured to AZ to meet the love of her life.


So...…… about the market...…… Appl.... maybe a trading range or double top? Amazon...… should have got puts on that one when it hit a trillion market cap.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on October 11, 2018, 05:06:07 AM
Even though there would be a blue change in November?


Maybe the stock market is predicting bad things coming our way with that blue wave.


Aw shucks ... looksy look  there

MAGA investing philosophy in a nutshell =>

When market goes up it is because of trump

When it goes down , blame imaginary Democrats

And here I thought you all good ol red blooded Americans were fired up after confirming kavanaugh and had crushed  the blue wave already ?

Market went down , rates unchanged . Why ? I will explain later in the day in  good detail for those who care .

In the meantime - any of the MAGA  investing “experts “ here want to pronounce any theories ?  were their portfolios were up in green yesterday , you know , because they are “active” managers :)




Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on October 11, 2018, 07:41:32 AM
I didn't blame the Dems for the fall yesterday.  I pointed out long ago that interest rates, being driven by inflation, the effect of a very strong economy driven by MAGA, will cause near term volatility and opportunities.  Totally normal and part of our now normalizing business cycle.  hint: if a money manager tells you "your account will go up every day"...run away from that guy.


https://youtu.be/vUXGDk4iVfA (https://youtu.be/vUXGDk4iVfA)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on October 11, 2018, 08:56:50 AM
Just reallocated my four Oh one Kay
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Perspective on October 11, 2018, 09:08:25 AM
I didn't blame the Dems for the fall yesterday.  I pointed out long ago that interest rates, being driven by inflation, the effect of a very strong economy driven by MAGA, will cause near term volatility and opportunities.  Totally normal and part of our now normalizing business cycle.  hint: if a money manager tells you "your account will go up every day"...run away from that guy.


https://youtu.be/vUXGDk4iVfA (https://youtu.be/vUXGDk4iVfA)

"Money manager"? Hah, soo early 2000s. If you have money to invest, read, learn, and don't waste money on grifters.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on October 11, 2018, 09:16:11 AM
Yes I am sure your Robo advisor is answering phones today....or crashing as they often do.  My clients like the human factor and are more than happy to get what they pay for.

Robo advisor websites crashed, cutting clients off from accounts

Robo advisors haven’t had much experience with market routs. When confronted with one on Monday, they struggled.

The web sites of two of the country’s biggest robo advisors — Wealthfront and Betterment — crashed as the S&P 500 sank 4.1%. Complaints quickly spread across Reddit and other Internet sites from people who had trouble logging onto their accounts. “Really?” wrote @jlpatel23 after he received a message from Wealthfront saying its site was down.

The glitches represent a setback for a niche of the financial market industry that has been booming of late as people have become more comfortable making investment decisions without speaking to human advisors.

https://www.financial-planning.com/articles/robo-adviser-websites-crashed-cutting-clients-off-from-accounts (https://www.financial-planning.com/articles/robo-adviser-websites-crashed-cutting-clients-off-from-accounts)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on October 11, 2018, 09:45:51 AM
Just reallocated my four Oh one Kay

Thought about doing this but I never know when to reallocate back and usually miss the boat.  Figure I'll just ride it out and keep dollar cost averaging into it.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on October 11, 2018, 09:49:44 AM
Just reallocated my four Oh one Kay

Thought about doing this but I never know when to reallocate back and usually miss the boat.  Figure I'll just ride it out and keep dollar cost averaging into it.

My thought proces: already up this year so let’s see where we go approach. I can always switch back.

^ Peace and mind. Reduce the stress
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on October 11, 2018, 10:37:51 AM
some people seem to have short memories when it has come to rate hikes this year.  we'll be back to 26.5k by the end of the month and blasting through 27k when the blue wave comes in low tide. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Perspective on October 11, 2018, 11:08:02 AM
Yes I am sure your Robo advisor is answering phones today....or crashing as they often do.  My clients like the human factor and are more than happy to get what they pay for.

Robo advisor websites crashed, cutting clients off from accounts

Robo advisors haven’t had much experience with market routs. When confronted with one on Monday, they struggled.

The web sites of two of the country’s biggest robo advisors — Wealthfront and Betterment — crashed as the S&P 500 sank 4.1%. Complaints quickly spread across Reddit and other Internet sites from people who had trouble logging onto their accounts. “Really?” wrote @jlpatel23 after he received a message from Wealthfront saying its site was down.

The glitches represent a setback for a niche of the financial market industry that has been booming of late as people have become more comfortable making investment decisions without speaking to human advisors.

https://www.financial-planning.com/articles/robo-adviser-websites-crashed-cutting-clients-off-from-accounts (https://www.financial-planning.com/articles/robo-adviser-websites-crashed-cutting-clients-off-from-accounts)

Nope, you don't need a robo-adviser, or any other type of wealth adviser. Just boring low-cost index funds.

Warren Buffett wins $1M bet against hedge funds and gives it to girls' charity
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2018/01/02/warren-buffett-bet-against-hedge-funds-girls-charity/996993001/
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on October 11, 2018, 11:12:57 AM
Of course, there is always a program tailored to what you can afford.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on October 11, 2018, 02:09:12 PM
Just reallocated my four Oh one Kay

Thought about doing this but I never know when to reallocate back and usually miss the boat.  Figure I'll just ride it out and keep dollar cost averaging into it.

On the phone taking calls from family members and friends. how to change their 40h won. This sh## is real.

(How am I suppose to know how every interface works?)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on October 11, 2018, 03:20:30 PM
I’m leaving my 401k as is. This thing is bouncing back. Plus It’s hard to time it
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on October 11, 2018, 06:24:25 PM
Futures are up 250!!!! Back to making money! :-)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on October 11, 2018, 08:47:49 PM
A few thoughts on this sell off

People keep blaming the fed but rising rates are not the real problem . If economy is expected to grow at a faster pace than Fed is hiking rates , it is totally not  a problem

What is happening, as I have mentioned several times before , is stocks have an extremely high hurdle rate to clear for 2019 — set by 2018 earnings which were just exceptional so far , juiced by tax cuts and solid topline growth in the US

but stocks always look forward — so what began as a sell off in emerging markets and then cyclicals and then small caps has now spread to large cap growth . Rotation from growth into value — notice how telecom stocks like Verizon close to 1y highs

Why are rates not lower ?  As mentioned earlier (I forgot which thread I said this in) —

the fed is Locked and loaded into quarterly hikes and not blinking . But the mortgage experts here will notice that long dated rates (long bonds) have started to rally again . This is the market telling fed , we don’t see the long term pickup in growth that you are seeing . And with short term trade wars, there is also the risk of a policy mistake .

For where long rates go in the future - carefully watch European (German) bonds — they will somewhat dictate us long dated interest rates .

I bought tactically in feb and then got out recently in August  , missed some of the upside , but now it’s worked out in hindsight  . For me to buy this market again , I need to see 1) less disruption from trade 2) signs that 2019 earnings forecast don’t start to come down yet again .

Market will be higher tomorrow — Machines don’t want to be short before a weekend in case trump and xi  Renew their love . Remember when I said ignore the new nafta nonsense , it is all about China ?

Don’t forget to pay the purple font 3 percent commission for this free advice :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on October 11, 2018, 11:39:30 PM
Futures are up 250!!!! Back to making money! :-)

Want to make money tomorrow?  Follow my lead.  Wake up at 6:30am and buy tomorrow expiry out of the money puts on QQQ and SPY.  If the Dow opens up 300 or 400 points, S&P and Nasqaq will follow and these puts will be dirt cheap as soon as prices adjust at open. 

I have a feeling big money will be selling at open if there is a bounce and downward pressure will ensue and markets will fall into the afternoon.  Sell before close for huuuuuuuge (Donald Trump accent) gains.

I’m not always right but I have a good feeling about this one and I’ve been cashing in the last 2 Days.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: upon9k on October 12, 2018, 09:46:03 AM

Want to make money tomorrow?  Follow my lead.  Wake up at 6:30am and buy tomorrow expiry out of the money puts on QQQ and SPY.  If the Dow opens up 300 or 400 points, S&P and Nasqaq will follow and these puts will be dirt cheap as soon as prices adjust at open. 

I have a feeling big money will be selling at open if there is a bounce and downward pressure will ensue and markets will fall into the afternoon.  Sell before close for huuuuuuuge (Donald Trump accent) gains.

I’m not always right but I have a good feeling about this one and I’ve been cashing in the last 2 Days.

Damn that was a good call - like clockwork all Dow gains gone within 3 hours of opening bell.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on October 12, 2018, 10:00:12 AM
Annnnnd I'm out... made 180% gain in 3 hours time.... :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on October 12, 2018, 10:30:03 AM
Very good trade AB!!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on October 12, 2018, 11:48:38 AM
Yes, great call.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on October 18, 2018, 10:13:23 AM
The W effect. (not related to winning)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on October 18, 2018, 10:28:13 AM
I hope people who wanted to get out, did so on Tuesday . I still haven’t seen any reason to get back in on a beta/index level.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on October 23, 2018, 07:47:19 AM
Playing out just as I thought . Now below 200dma 

There will be an opportunity to get back in . We are not there yet .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on October 23, 2018, 08:09:14 AM
Playing out just as I thought . Now below 200dma 

There will be an opportunity to get back in . We are not there yet .

Let us know when we you get back in.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on October 24, 2018, 01:13:55 PM
Nice headline. Dow plunges more than 600 points in another day of losses, officially wiping out its 2018 gains. American feels great again though...so we got that going for us.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on October 24, 2018, 01:30:10 PM
Nice headline. Dow plunges more than 600 points in another day of losses, officially wiping out its 2018 gains. American feels great again though...so we got that going for us.

But .. but ... but ... consumer confidence highest ever ...but but look at me - at-least I am rich from tax cuts ... and we got supreme , yes supreme ... now whats that again you say ... anyways , (screaming) MAGA !!

~Boomer age financial advisors are all cut from the same cloth  -- everything good is trump and deregulation and anything bad is democrats.  Their only job is to fit the narrative to whatever has happened .. you know exactly the type I am talking about

But as I have promised before , we are at the ~ 10% mark from peak to trough ... so something has to give -- in terms of Fed communication ... there will be a time to get back in ... just not yet . 

We are NOT heading into a recession and housing is NOT collapsing (it is softening though)  -- if this stock market panic helps you buyers negotiate  with jumpy and nervous sellers get that discount now  --- don't wait  till next year . 

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on October 24, 2018, 04:44:05 PM
some people seem to have short memories when it has come to rate hikes this year.  we'll be back to 26.5k by the end of the month and blasting through 27k when the blue wave comes in low tide.

5 more trading days to go. We're going to see that massive +2000 surge soon enough...TI consumer confidence at an all time high!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on October 25, 2018, 08:00:09 AM
Even though there would be a blue change in November?


Maybe the stock market is predicting bad things coming our way with that blue wave.


Aw shucks ... looksy look  there

MAGA investing philosophy in a nutshell =>

When market goes up it is because of trump

When it goes down , blame imaginary Democrats

And here I thought you all good ol red blooded Americans were fired up after confirming kavanaugh and had crushed  the blue wave already ?

Market went down , rates unchanged . Why ? I will explain later in the day in  good detail for those who care .

In the meantime - any of the MAGA  investing “experts “ here want to pronounce any theories ?  were their portfolios were up in green yesterday , you know , because they are “active” managers :)






I never tell anyone what to do here, It's what I get paid to do so why give it away for free.  Just checked the year to date in my largest institutional account this morning, after yesterdays sell off,  Up 16.04%.  Believe it or not, I really don't care, its why people hire professionals, we have to earn it, the capitalistic way. And don't try to ask me to prove that return, I won't, that's between me and my very liberal but happy clients.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on October 25, 2018, 08:14:33 AM
Even though there would be a blue change in November?


Maybe the stock market is predicting bad things coming our way with that blue wave.


Aw shucks ... looksy look  there

MAGA investing philosophy in a nutshell =>

When market goes up it is because of trump

When it goes down , blame imaginary Democrats

And here I thought you all good ol red blooded Americans were fired up after confirming kavanaugh and had crushed  the blue wave already ?

Market went down , rates unchanged . Why ? I will explain later in the day in  good detail for those who care .

In the meantime - any of the MAGA  investing “experts “ here want to pronounce any theories ?  were their portfolios were up in green yesterday , you know , because they are “active” managers :)






I never tell anyone what to do here, It's what I get paid to do so why give it away for free.  Just checked the year to date in my largest institutional account this morning, after yesterdays sell off,  Up 16.04%.  Believe it or not, I really don't care, its why people hire professionals, we have to earn it, the capitalistic way. And don't try to ask me to prove that return, I won't, that's between me and my very liberal but happy clients.

You can't have it both ways. On the other thread about tax cuts you are saying not everyone lives in California and there are other people in the country and on average are getting tax cuts. On this thread you use 1 anecdotal example as the end all and be all of the market performing well. How about...you know the Dow and S&P500 YTD? Flat to low % gain?

Oh right....let's cherry pick whatever helps support my narrative.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on October 25, 2018, 08:21:36 AM
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.


https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI (https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on October 25, 2018, 08:51:59 PM
This is a classic example of why this whole business’s of financial advisory is the biggest scam yet

Market up - I told you so , didn’t I

Market down — opportunity !  When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ?  They never tell you do they . “

Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about “dollar cost averaging”

They can never lose , can they :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on October 29, 2018, 11:06:00 PM
This bear market is pretty predictable and pretty easy to make $ with option selling by following my 6 simple rules

1. Buy QQQ calls and puts (don’t sell options in this crazy market)
2. Buy only on Fridays (next week expiry) and Mondays / Tuesday’s (current week expiry).  Time erosion when you buy Wed/Thur is fast and furious.
3. If buying Friday (for example), buy 5 minutes before market close, only buy is the QQQ price is up or down 1.5% or greater for that day.
4. Buy the opposite direction.  For example buy a OTM call (for next Friday expiry) if the QQQ is down 1.5% or greater.  Likewise an OTM put if the QQQ is up 1.5% or greater.  If it doesn’t move enough, don’t buy anything just wait for your next opportunity near market close on Mon or Tues.
5. Next business day around 9am Pacific, sell the contract if you’re positive.  If you’re negative, give it until about noon to turn if not, sell it anyway and take the loss.
6. Wash rinse repeat on Fri/Mon/Tues.  Get in and out quick, be disciplined, stick to the plan and don’t be greedy.

So far this has worked well for me.  For example today I bought QQQ calls for this week expiry 5min before close.  If market is up tomorrow morning I sell, if down then I wait until noon and sell regardless of price.

Remember, past performance is not indicative of future results ;)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 04, 2018, 06:40:42 PM
For what it’s worth to anyone interested —-

Earnings are largely behind us , revisions and estimates are also fine tuned for q4 and 2019 to a large degree .

Think we have a floor here around 2600 - 2650 for the s&p.

But hard to see it break out meaningfully beyond 2850 . So we are in this range for now until next year when we will find out the true realities of trade war , fed hike path etc .

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on November 04, 2018, 06:59:17 PM
For what it’s worth to anyone interested —-

Earnings are largely behind us , revisions and estimates are also fine tuned for q4 and 2019 to a large degree .

Think we have a floor here around 2600 - 2650 for the s&p.

But hard to see it break out meaningfully beyond 2850 . So we are in this range for now until next year when we will find out the true realities of trade war , fed hike path etc .

President Donald Trump says his administration was "looking at" antitrust proceedings against tech giants Google, Amazon, and Facebook.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/trump-amazon-facebook-google-looking-at-antitrust-2018-11

Trump vs Tech
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 07, 2018, 12:20:09 PM
Which MAGA financial genius here claimed that stocks were selling off in October because of fears of dem takeover of house ?

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on November 07, 2018, 12:33:16 PM
Not me, but I bought it. Like I said healthy, normal and opportunities.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 07, 2018, 12:49:42 PM
Not me, but I bought it. Like I said healthy, normal and opportunities.

Ok good

Home buyers — the homebuilder etf is rallying off the lows too

Sentiment may turn again — time to negotiate a good deal if you are in the market before sellers again fall prey to renewed optimism on prices .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 07, 2018, 01:29:40 PM
I say we hit all time highs in the markets before year end, mainly due to window dressing and corporate buybacks.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on November 07, 2018, 02:04:27 PM
Many of my co-workers went all cash in their bloated 401k's in the last week or 2.  Now they're all wondering if they should buy back in...

Too many inexperienced millennials running for the hills when they see a 5% drop. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on November 08, 2018, 09:41:14 AM
Many of my co-workers went all cash in their bloated 401k's in the last week or 2.  Now they're all wondering if they should buy back in...

Too many inexperienced millennials running for the hills when they see a 5% drop. 

Those are called "weak hands" in the industry.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 08, 2018, 09:50:02 AM
Many of my co-workers went all cash in their bloated 401k's in the last week or 2.  Now they're all wondering if they should buy back in...

Too many inexperienced millennials running for the hills when they see a 5% drop. 

Those are called "weak hands" in the industry.

I have to call this out as Wrong . I know actual industry experts who do this for a living

Weaker hands are hedge funds that liquidate crowded trades all together like lemmings .  High HF ownership is a recipe for volatility

I can write a whole thesis here on CTA and risk parity funds and how they affect the “beta” or the index but will save it for a different time

Blaming millennials for everything is the “easy” and sometimes “lazy” answer . Sorry if this offends anyone.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 12, 2018, 12:51:37 PM
For what it’s worth to anyone interested —-

Earnings are largely behind us , revisions and estimates are also fine tuned for q4 and 2019 to a large degree .

Think we have a floor here around 2600 - 2650 for the s&p.

But hard to see it break out meaningfully beyond 2850 . So we are in this range for now until next year when we will find out the true realities of trade war , fed hike path etc .

Playing out just as i expected 2850/2800 is ceiling hard to break , but 2600/2650 also a strong support level .

For those who asked me before , I haven’t gotten back in the market since August , but have been adding more to my fixed income investments in the meantime .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on November 19, 2018, 09:05:53 AM
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.


https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI (https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI)

Treading close there on your prediction right now. I guess +100 is still up for the year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on November 19, 2018, 09:07:43 AM
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.


https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI (https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI)

Treading close there on your prediction right now. I guess +100 is still up for the year.

Don’t forget he said it’s healthy.  ;)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 19, 2018, 09:54:03 AM
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.


https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI (https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI)

Treading close there on your prediction right now. I guess +100 is still up for the year.

Don’t forget he said it’s healthy.  ;)

Yes it is a low fat , low carb and high protein market  . I just need to add the word “paleo “ to it to make it complete
 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on November 19, 2018, 09:55:24 AM
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.


https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI (https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI)

Treading close there on your prediction right now. I guess +100 is still up for the year.

Don’t forget he said it’s healthy.  ;)

Don't worry I can see the spin. If the Dow doesn't perform well, it is because Democrats took the House and consumer confidence is low!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 19, 2018, 09:59:37 AM

Don't worry I can see the spin. If the Dow doesn't perform well, it is because Democrats took the House and consumer confidence is low!

Too lazy to find them but he didn't believe that Trump/GOP would lose in the midterms...well maybe he doesn't believe it still.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on November 19, 2018, 11:31:37 AM
Because they didn't.  Lost the house gained in the Senate...lots of time left folks.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on November 20, 2018, 08:34:42 AM
I don’t think we are bouncing back to 2018 highs for a very very long time.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 20, 2018, 08:44:54 AM
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that —

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors .

The only force that can change this range now is the FED
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 20, 2018, 08:47:19 AM
Just trying to figure out when I can get some Apple or Alphabet stock on the "cheap"
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on November 20, 2018, 08:50:22 AM
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that —

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors .

The only force that can change this range now is the FED
And how long would this last? I guess at some point, 2600 would become ceiling
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 20, 2018, 08:51:22 AM
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that —

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors .

The only force that can change this range now is the FED
And how long would this last? I guess at some point, 2600 would become ceiling

My guess is like 2500/22000/6000.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 20, 2018, 09:13:11 AM
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that —

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors . It has worked very well for me last few years
The only force that can change this range now is the FED
And how long would this last? I guess at some point, 2600 would become ceiling

Well no one knows the future . These are the best estimates based upon what I see with earnings and multiples

 Recall my decision to get out of the market in late summer . And then when I said not to panic in October when it fell close to 2600.  I still think no one should panic at around these levels in aggregate . Also look at my point about investment horizons in one of the housing threads .

If fed continues to be to tone deaf and continues hiking aggressively next year into what is clearly a cyclical slowdown , multiples shrink further
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 20, 2018, 11:03:25 AM
We have past -500 on the dow.

Troubling in that the drop is being led by different sectors every day (today it was Target and retail). 

We will see what happens but bad timing for business for people's 401K to fall 10% just before the holiday season.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on November 20, 2018, 11:12:08 AM
We have past -500 on the dow.

Troubling in that the drop is being led by different sectors every day (today it was Target and retail). 

We will see what happens but bad timing for business for people's 401K to fall 10% just before the holiday season.

Puts on HD, broke the neckline of the double top.

Volatility is probably going to inflate options prices and it might take a while to come down. Bought June ditm puts which didn't have much premium in them.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 20, 2018, 11:12:14 AM
We will see what happens but bad timing for business for people's 401K to fall 10% just before the holiday season.

Why is that? It's a long way away before I dip into my 401k, so not sure why a 10% drop before the holidays is going to affect businesses. I'm still going to shop the same way I did previous years.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on November 20, 2018, 11:15:13 AM
We will see what happens but bad timing for business for people's 401K to fall 10% just before the holiday season.

Why is that? It's a long way away before I dip into my 401k, so not sure why a 10% drop before the holidays is going to affect businesses. I'm still going to shop the same way I did previous years.

You may but watching your portfolio drop by 10 to 20% makes people nervous.  It may not be reasonable but when markets go in the margins...reasonableness is usually out the door.

Quote
Here’s the problem: A market fall itself could hobble consumer spending, a chief growth engine, if it deepens, undercutting the healthy economy. That could create a toxic feedback loop between stocks and the economy.

The link between the two is particularly strong because sharply rising stock and home prices have juiced consumer spending since the recession ended in 2009, a dynamic known as the wealth effect, according to a new study by Moody’s Analytics, Visa and Equifax. As a result, even a partial reversal of the 9-year-old bull market, if it’s sustained, could prompt many people to pull back. Consumption makes up 70% of economic activity.

“The economy is tied at the hip to the stock market,” says Mark Zandi chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. Even a 10% market retreat would noticeably curtail spending and economic growth, he says.

“If we were to see a sustained bigger drop (of about 20%), that would really sap a lot of the spending” that has fueled the recovery, says Visa Chief Economist Wayne Best. “While that’s not the most likely scenario, it certainly bears watching.” The Wilshire 500 stock index was down 4.8% from its late January peak at Thursday's market close despite a rebound in recent days.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/02/15/markets-juiced-spending-they-douse/335396002/
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 20, 2018, 11:16:16 AM
Yeah... I'm the "set it and forget it" type.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 20, 2018, 11:30:53 AM
I should paste my comments on time horizon and psychology from the housing thread here . Don’t know how to .

But in brief —- most people think they are long term investors when in reality they are traders with short term horizons that extend when market goes against them — “I am in it for the long term” is one of the excuses people give themselves when market sells off and they find themselves too long

Doesn’t apply to everyone of course - don’t jump on this , there are exceptions . But “most “ ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on November 20, 2018, 11:34:23 AM
I'm lazy... don't even remember my logins to my 401k dashboard.

The only time I check the balance is when we bought our house and when we refi'd.

#LetItGrow
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on November 21, 2018, 10:00:07 AM
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that —

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors .

The only force that can change this range now is the FED

Range holding as expected ... don’t chase it here beyond 2800 though

all the carnage in credit , fixed income and closed end funds better opportunities may lie there instead
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 12:39:29 PM
Dow off 700 today...basically the market is irrational now.  Worried that Powell will raise rates too fast because economy is not that strong...but also worried that the economy is not that strong. 

Reacting to the inverse yield curve that pretty much everyone saw coming weeks ago.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 12:46:00 PM
LOL...it's not because housing is becoming overheated and unaffordable due to the SALT reduction and higher interest rates.

Quote
Shares of home builders took a broad beating Tuesday, after luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. confirmed investors’ fears by saying it witnessed the housing market “soften further” in November, especially in California, because of reduced affordability and fewer foreign buyers.

In addition to rising interest rates and “significant” price appreciation the past few years giving buyers reason for pause, Toll Brothers TOL, -1.13% also blamed “well-publicized reports” of a housing slowdown for having a negative impact on buyer sentiment.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-stocks-sink-after-toll-brothers-blames-rising-rates-negative-media-for-further-market-slowdown-2018-12-04
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on December 04, 2018, 12:46:34 PM
Today the big sell off.
Good thing I switched to money market for my 4O1. (people didn’t listen to me)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 12:52:57 PM
Today the big sell off.
Good thing I switched to money market for my 4O1. (people didn’t listen to me)

I don't have a need for the money.  I'm like 40% stock, 50% bond, and 10% cash.    Can't really adjust it any more.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on December 04, 2018, 12:58:47 PM
Today the big sell off.
Good thing I switched to money market for my 4O1. (people didn’t listen to me)

I don't have a need for the money.  I'm like 40% stock, 50% bond, and 10% cash.    Can't really adjust it any more.

I take it back. Fortune and I predicted this.

Don’t sleep at the wheel. Currently I do not see any upside in this market.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on December 04, 2018, 03:06:29 PM
we did it boys!

(https://www.swoknews.com/sites/default/files/styles/slideshow/public/field/image/6B-Dow-24-x-full.jpg?itok=3P4-ZCE7)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 04, 2018, 03:16:51 PM
This would be hilarious if it didn't hurt some many people. 

Quote
After the key meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, officials from Beijing are "puzzled and irritated" by the Trump administration's behavior, The Washington Post reported Tuesday, citing a former U.S. government official who has been in contact with the Chinese officials.

"You don't do this with the Chinese. You don't triumphantly proclaim all their concessions in public. It's just madness," the former official, who asked for anonymity to describe confidential discussions, told the Post.

The two world leaders met over dinner during the G-20 summit in Argentina last week. The White House said the nations had agreed to a 90-day truce on trade. Following the meeting, Trump told reporters it was "an incredible deal" and that it "goes down, certainly, if it happens, it goes down as one of the largest deals ever made."

But the Post reported that the Chinese have not acknowledged a 90-day deadline for the talks and have not said that they would "immediately" increase purchases of U.S. farm goods.

There are also "significant differences" between the two governments' versions of what was agreed upon at the dinner, according to the Post, which cited a side-by-side comparison of their post-meeting statements by Bloomberg.

In a series of tweets Tuesday, the president said he's looking to make a "fair deal" but stressed that he is "a Tariff Man" if talks do end up crumbling.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/china-confused-by-trumps-words-of-triumph-after-trade-truce.html
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 08:46:08 AM
Another day in paradise!  700 point loss with dismal numbers...those 4th quarter GDP numbers are going to look interesting.

Hmm...wonder why no tweets from Trump about the stock market these days?

and of course the arrest of Huawei's CFO for violating the Iran sanction imposed by Trump may make his head explode.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 06, 2018, 09:09:45 AM
Isn't this seasonal?

#justkidding
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on December 06, 2018, 09:35:19 AM
The question now is if we'll even end up par to the start of 2018.

Who said with confidence that we'll end up at 27, 28 for the year?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on December 06, 2018, 09:38:50 AM
This is your chance to make some money. Last time the Dow hit 24,400 it bounced back to 26,000 pretty quickly. Seems like it’s going to be trading in that range for a while until the China trade stuff gets figured out (or not), guess the deadline for that is the end of February.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 06, 2018, 09:45:27 AM
This is your chance to make some money. Last time the Dow hit 24,400 it bounced back to 26,000 pretty quickly. Seems like it’s going to be trading in that range for a while until the China trade stuff gets figured out (or not), guess the deadline for that is the end of February.

Problem is that the earnings are down...the inverted curve hurts...and oil may go below $50.  A lot of industries will get hurt.

Hey...at least the 10 year yield is down.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on December 06, 2018, 10:14:14 AM
Another day in paradise!  700 point loss with dismal numbers...those 4th quarter GDP numbers are going to look interesting.

Hmm...wonder why no tweets from Trump about the stock market these days?

and of course the arrest of Huawei's CFO for violating the Iran sanction imposed by Trump may make his head explode.

Was 17,888 on this wonderful day...now 24,533...a gain of 37%...short term, who cares..we will be just fine.

Trump dump: Wall Street slides for 9th day in a row

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/wall-street-slides-for-ninth-straight-day/


It's not too late to change your 401k allocation. If Trump wins, expect the worse.

Update: It looks like Wall St. wants Clinton to win. The Dow ends the day up 376 points. FBI Director Comey announces it wont charge Clinton.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/wall-street-rallies-clinton-230886

Reminds me of something...

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/stocks-rise-with-1-day-to-go-before-brexit-vote/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/stocks-rise-with-1-day-to-go-before-brexit-vote/)

Stocks rise with 1 day to go before Brexit vote
Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.5 percent to 6,259 and Germany's DAX was 0.7 percent higher at 10,082. France's CAC 40 rose 0.5 percent to 4,388.

U.S. futures indicated small gains on Wall Street, with S&P 500 and Dow futures each up 0.1 percent.

Campaigners on both sides of Thursday's crucial vote on whether Britain should remain in the EU began the final frantic day of campaigning. Polls indicate it will be a tight race but bookies are giving the "remain" camp a higher probability of winning. Many voters remain undecided and bookies and investors appear to be betting that they will settle for the status quo. International experts, including Yellen, have said that a British exit would cause a lot of volatility in global markets and uncertainty for the world economy.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 06, 2018, 11:37:23 AM
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that —

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors .

The only force that can change this range now is the FED

Range holding as expected ... don’t chase it here beyond 2800 though

all the carnage in credit , fixed income and closed end funds better opportunities may lie there instead

Range will still hold for now .. but this Huawei CFO arrest is a game changer .  Will lead to further escalation in trade war and could cause a breakage in the range.  Don’t recommend chasing it yet .... FED mtg next week becomes KEY now as to what language they use etc .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 07, 2018, 09:27:10 AM
DEAD CAT BOUNCE from yesterday...down another 400 today.

Employment numbers are not good in a month that should see good hiring due to the holiday season.

OPEC cutting production is going to make Trump mad and push OPEC closer with Russia.  But hey...let's make the country more dependent on fossil fuels!

Weird that all these "small government anti-tax" GOPers have no problems with Trump pushing up the deficit and imposing a 10% tax on all Americans through tariffs...25% to come!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on December 07, 2018, 09:59:04 AM
It's the financial adviser/stock broker spin.

"I've always said dips are healthy for the economy"
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 07, 2018, 10:06:32 AM
It's the financial adviser/stock broker spin.

"I've always said dips are healthy for the economy"

This is why I stopped watch CNBC. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2018, 10:21:23 AM
The S&P is down 6/10ths of one percent year to date.  The Dow even less!!! Cry me a river!  Apple, for all the rending of garments and wailing, is UP 3 1/4% and almost 5% with dividend.  The last thing you want is a market that only goes up every day, that is a recipe for disaster..ala 2000-2001.  This is a big boy game. If you pee in your pants at every jiggle than you need to be in diapers instead.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 07, 2018, 10:25:52 AM
The S&P is down 6/10ths of one percent year to date.  The Dow even less!!! Cry me a river!  Apple, for all the rending of garments and wailing, is UP 3 1/4% and almost 5% with dividend.  The last thing you want is a market that only goes up every day, that is a recipe for disaster..ala 2000-2001.  This is a big boy game. If you pee in your pants at every jiggle than you need to be in diapers instead.

No one cares about this drop...people care about what is coming up.  Stock market is supposed to be a leading indicator of the economy. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on December 07, 2018, 10:26:00 AM
The S&P is down 6/10ths of one percent year to date.  The Dow even less!!! Cry me a river!  Apple, for all the rending of garments and wailing, is UP 3 1/4% and almost 5% with dividend.  The last thing you want is a market that only goes up every day, that is a recipe for disaster..ala 2000-2001.  This is a big boy game. If you pee in your pants at every jiggle than you need to be in diapers instead.

I want to hear you tell your clients the opposite then. Tell them every gain is a bad thing and that we need more declines.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2018, 10:46:24 AM
I tell them nothing different from what I tell them every time the "world is ending".  Like 1987 (stock market collapse) Dow 1900, 1990 (collapse of the Savings and loan industry) Dow 2700, 1994 (last upward rate cycle) Dow 3800, 1997 (Long Term Capital collapse along with ALL the worlds currencies) Dow 6700,  2001 (Collapse of the .com and WTC attacks) Dow 10100,  2008 (collapse of the real estate market and banking system) Dow 13000, 2016 (election of Trump) Dow 17888....We will be fine.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 07, 2018, 11:02:02 AM
The S&P is down 6/10ths of one percent year to date.  The Dow even less!!! Cry me a river!  Apple, for all the rending of garments and wailing, is UP 3 1/4% and almost 5% with dividend.  The last thing you want is a market that only goes up every day, that is a recipe for disaster..ala 2000-2001.  This is a big boy game. If you pee in your pants at every jiggle than you need to be in diapers instead.

I want to hear you tell your clients the opposite then. Tell them every gain is a bad thing and that we need more declines.

Touché  :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 07, 2018, 11:04:55 AM
This is a classic example of why this whole business’s of financial advisory is the biggest scam yet

Market up - I told you so , didn’t I

Market down — opportunity !  When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ?  They never tell you do they . “

Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about “dollar cost averaging”

They can never lose , can they :)

reposting from back in October
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2018, 11:08:04 AM
This is a classic example of why this whole business’s of financial advisory is the biggest scam yet

Market up - I told you so , didn’t I

Market down — opportunity !  When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ?  They never tell you do they . “

Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about “dollar cost averaging”

They can never lose , can they :)

reposting from back in October

And on that date the Dow was pretty much right where it is now...so?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 07, 2018, 11:10:07 AM
This is a classic example of why this whole business’s of financial advisory is the biggest scam yet

Market up - I told you so , didn’t I

Market down — opportunity !  When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ?  They never tell you do they . “

Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about “dollar cost averaging”

They can never lose , can they :)

reposting from back in October

And on that date the Dow was pretty much right where it is now...so?

Why do we need a financial adviser to tell me anything?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 07, 2018, 11:15:22 AM
This is a classic example of why this whole business’s of financial advisory is the biggest scam yet

Market up - I told you so , didn’t I

Market down — opportunity !  When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ?  They never tell you do they . “

Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about “dollar cost averaging”

They can never lose , can they :)

reposting from back in October

And on that date the Dow was pretty much right where it is now...so?

Point is simple - what is the ACTUAL content of the financial advisor “advice”  - there is no SPECIFITY — just an attempt to explain what happened (-after reading media) and / or handholding when clients are depressed (therapist) .

The burden of proof is on your profession . This is not directed at just you in particular
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2018, 11:20:30 AM
This is a classic example of why this whole business’s of financial advisory is the biggest scam yet

Market up - I told you so , didn’t I

Market down — opportunity !  When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ?  They never tell you do they . “

Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about “dollar cost averaging”

They can never lose , can they :)

reposting from back in October

And on that date the Dow was pretty much right where it is now...so?

Why do we need a financial adviser to tell me anything?

Because in numerous instances stopping clients from committing financial suicide is the job.  Left to their own devices people act emotionally and in herds.  I know, you are smarter than that but I can tell you from experience that stopping clients from selling into pain or buying into euphoria (Bitcoin) can be a 24/7 job.  Also, making people do what they do not emotionally want to do (buy at lows) is Herculean.  Saying buy low and sell high sounds obvious and easy, in practice, it is not.  Buying cheap means everyone hates the asset and is trying to get out of it, selling expensive means everyone is fighting to buy it (houses in 2005). Paying for competent advice is a circuit breaker that keeps people from doing the wrong thing at the wrong time...when properly utilized it is worth every penny.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 07, 2018, 11:57:28 AM
This is a classic example of why this whole business’s of financial advisory is the biggest scam yet

Market up - I told you so , didn’t I

Market down — opportunity !  When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ?  They never tell you do they . “

Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about “dollar cost averaging”

They can never lose , can they :)

reposting from back in October

And on that date the Dow was pretty much right where it is now...so?

Why do we need a financial adviser to tell me anything?

Because in numerous instances stopping clients from committing financial suicide is the job.  Left to their own devices people act emotionally and in herds.  I know, you are smarter than that but I can tell you from experience that stopping clients from selling into pain or buying into euphoria (Bitcoin) can be a 24/7 job.  Also, making people do what they do not emotionally want to do (buy at lows) is Herculean.  Saying buy low and sell high sounds obvious and easy, in practice, it is not.  Buying cheap means everyone hates the asset and is trying to get out of it, selling expensive means everyone is fighting to buy it (houses in 2005). Paying for competent advice is a circuit breaker that keeps people from doing the wrong thing at the wrong time...when properly utilized it is worth every penny.


And yet you are a libertarian/conservative who believes that people are better of making their own decisions.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 07, 2018, 12:06:40 PM
And notice all the MAGA world hailing the tax cut as “game changing”  last year ? Remember ?

Equity market is down now since the tax cuts were passed and the PE multiple has shrunk as well

SUGAR HIGH anyone ?

Never trust a conservative boomer age analyst  in financial media - be it online or on TV . Their political leanings and how it biases their commentary  become their downfall ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on December 07, 2018, 12:09:29 PM
Ultimately, they do. I am more of a component of the decision making process.  Example,  at the beginning of the year I had several clients lusting to invests substantially in the Bitcoin market.  As you saw in the bitcoin thread I was aggressively against any such investment.  The clients, ultimatum made the decision to not enter that market, due to no small part to my opposition.  Now, although it is hard to prove a negative, I can tell you that if they had made those investments on their own they would have lost hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of dollars.  I did not benefit financially from that (or lack there of) transaction.  However my clients do not see it that way and credit the guidance with saving them from themselves.  Our relationship adds value and therefore they see no problem in paying me for my advice and insight.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 07, 2018, 12:10:37 PM
And notice all the MAGA world hailing the tax cut as “game changing”  last year ? Remember ?

Equity market is down now since the tax cuts were passed and the PE multiple has shrunk as well

SUGAR HIGH anyone ?

Never trust a conservative boomer age analyst  in financial media - be it online or on TV . Their political leanings and how it biases their commentary  become their downfall ...

Larry Kudlow is a joke now...the ultimate globalist shilling himself on tariffs.

Can't wait for Trump to hire Peter Schiiff and have Schiff come out and tell me how great deficits are.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 07, 2018, 01:07:43 PM
I think I speak for many people on this forum when I say this —

MAGA supporters have used every opportunity last two years to litter this forum almost every day with hail trump and republican policies as the reason for the stock market miracle we got blessed with

And now when markets blow up , it is “healthy” and “much needed “ and “ nothing in the large scheme of things “

The economic related posts have also died down relatively speaking

So what is it ? Have we decided yet
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 07, 2018, 02:14:01 PM
And yet you are a libertarian/conservative who believes that people are better of making their own decisions.

To be a libertarian means you believe in maximizing personal liberty.  Seeking out the advice of an expert and engaging in private commerce is the very essence of liberty.  If investors don't like morekaos' advice, they are free to switch advisers or manage their own investments.  Nobody is putting a gun to their head.  Yet it also means they have to take personal responsibility for their own poor decisions, something many people don't like.

Expecting the government to fund your retirement and health care is anti-liberty.  It means you are willing to exchange your freedom for a feeling of security.  Most people would be much more secure if their payroll tax and medicare taxes were invested in the stock market and allowed to compound for 40 years, but they are willing to exchange all of that compounded wealth for a feeling of being secure that those tiny social security checks provide in old age.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 07, 2018, 02:55:39 PM
And yet you are a libertarian/conservative who believes that people are better of making their own decisions.

To be a libertarian means you believe in maximizing personal liberty.  Seeking out the advice of an expert and engaging in private commerce is the very essence of liberty.  If investors don't like morekaos' advice, they are free to switch advisers or manage their own investments.  Nobody is putting a gun to their head.  Yet it also means they have to take personal responsibility for their own poor decisions, something many people don't like.

Expecting the government to fund your retirement and health care is anti-liberty.  It means you are willing to exchange your freedom for a feeling of security.  Most people would be much more secure if their payroll tax and medicare taxes were invested in the stock market and allowed to compound for 40 years, but they are willing to exchange all of that compounded wealth for a feeling of being secure that those tiny social security checks provide in old age.

And what happens when a lot of people make bad mistake?  What if people who make right/proper choices but have bad things happen?  What if a person worked hard for his/her entire life and do the "right" things but then the world changes and destroys their savings/plans?  Do we just declare social bankruptcy and walkaway? 

That's the problem with Libertarians and the business mentality to running a nation/society.  You don't get to toss people aside when they no longer benefit society like you do with debts and debtors in bankruptcy.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 07, 2018, 03:34:01 PM
And what happens when a lot of people make bad mistake?  What if people who make right/proper choices but have bad things happen?  What if a person worked hard for his/her entire life and do the "right" things but then the world changes and destroys their savings/plans?  Do we just declare social bankruptcy and walkaway? 

That's the problem with Libertarians and the business mentality to running a nation/society.  You don't get to toss people aside when they no longer benefit society like you do with debts and debtors in bankruptcy.

I think you're kind of missing the point, which is your prior characterization of libertarians was incorrect.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: paperboyNC on December 07, 2018, 03:49:58 PM
Most people would be much more secure if their payroll tax and medicare taxes were invested in the stock market and allowed to compound for 40 years, but they are willing to exchange all of that compounded wealth for a feeling of being secure that those tiny social security checks provide in old age.

https://www.statesman.com/business/20140214/report-more-us-workers-cashing-out-401k-accounts
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 07, 2018, 03:55:32 PM
Most people would be much more secure if their payroll tax and medicare taxes were invested in the stock market and allowed to compound for 40 years, but they are willing to exchange all of that compounded wealth for a feeling of being secure that those tiny social security checks provide in old age.

https://www.statesman.com/business/20140214/report-more-us-workers-cashing-out-401k-accounts

Congress cashes out the Social Security trust fund and private workers cash out their 401(k)'s.  The irony is rich, isn't it?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on December 07, 2018, 04:03:27 PM
I think I speak for many people on this forum when I say this —

MAGA supporters have used every opportunity last two years to litter this forum almost every day with hail trump and republican policies as the reason for the stock market miracle we got blessed with

And now when markets blow up , it is “healthy” and “much needed “ and “ nothing in the large scheme of things “

The economic related posts have also died down relatively speaking

So what is it ? Have we decided yet

To describe it best. It’s like a troll farm. For example they said that they didn’t see a salt cap reductions when they did their taxes early this year. (Which is for tax year 2017)
No shit the cap on salt deductions is for fiscal year 2018.

So they try to spread false rumors that there’s no effect because of the new tax law. Who called them out? Of course I did.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 07, 2018, 05:20:40 PM
I wrote a lengthy post on this “libertarian “ b/s fantasy that many republicans have , especially in OC .

They read ayn rand and get a hard on and think they are John Wayne or John galt

True libertarianism may have worked when this was an empty land (let’s not even consider the natives yet) and you could build a self sustaining life on a farm of your choice .

Now every single thing you do has an externality as you are always connected to other citizens . Ever buy insurance for your business  libertarians? 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Halos on December 08, 2018, 01:06:43 PM
You guys' think this sucker has more room to run? Or are you in the plateau camp  ;D


(http://i68.tinypic.com/2wn214w.jpg)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 10, 2018, 08:47:18 AM
I wrote a lengthy post on this “libertarian “ b/s fantasy that many republicans have , especially in OC .

They read ayn rand and get a hard on and think they are John Wayne or John galt

True libertarianism may have worked when this was an empty land (let’s not even consider the natives yet) and you could build a self sustaining life on a farm of your choice .

Now every single thing you do has an externality as you are always connected to other citizens . Ever buy insurance for your business  libertarians?

I always thought that economic libertarian philosophies were there to make rich people (or people who think they will become rich) feel morally and socially superior and served as an excuse as to why rich people don't have to care about those not as rich.  Basically, you get what you deserved and that being rich makes you somehow a better or smarter person.   

Trump is classic example of this.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 10, 2018, 08:48:34 AM
Another 500 points!  It's like monopoly money at this point. 

hmm...awfully quiet from Trump and his "economic advisers" 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 10, 2018, 09:16:51 AM
Another 500 points!  It's like monopoly money at this point. 

hmm...awfully quiet from Trump and his "economic advisers"

Don’t tell your financial advisor that :)

“More sellers than buyers” - duh ?

“Healthy correction “

“ we are in it for the long haul (whatever that means) “

Throw in a lot of “shalls” and “we” to sound pompous and you are  done !

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on December 11, 2018, 09:40:28 AM
Government shutdown? (Trump threatens to shut down the government.)

Just when I thought the stock market was turning around.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 11, 2018, 11:56:00 AM
Government shutdown? (Trump threatens to shut down the government.)

Just when I thought the stock market was turning around.

My prediction and the range still holds for now . Nothing so far has changed that  . If it does , I will post an update here .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on December 14, 2018, 03:12:53 PM
Seems like Market broke your floor—26000
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 14, 2018, 03:34:54 PM
Seems like Market broke your floor—26000

2599.95 !
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on December 14, 2018, 03:45:13 PM
 :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on December 17, 2018, 08:57:06 AM
Been awfully quiet from MAGA supporters about the market lately. I guess they are hungover from all the winning.

Any revised predictions where S&P and DJI end up for the year?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: nosuchreality on December 17, 2018, 09:25:01 AM
Potential Fed hike and mindless Gov shutdown.  Gov shutdowns are bad for business.  So my question is how much of the drop recovers once the shutdown is averted.

And, how much more does it fall once he smashes the economy against the wall?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: momopi on December 17, 2018, 09:29:09 AM
Current asset allocation at one of my accounts:
11% domestic stock
3% foreign stock
2% bonds
83% short term securities

;p
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on December 17, 2018, 09:55:53 AM
Been awfully quiet from MAGA supporters about the market lately. I guess they are hungover from all the winning.

Any revised predictions where S&P and DJI end up for the year?

I thought it would bounce back and hit 26,000 and change. Whoops.  For 2019 my guess is 4 to 6% higher than 12/31/18. There are some decent alternatives now that provide 3% returns with no risk and given that things seem to be slowing down I think more people will be happy to just sit on the sidelines in cash for all or parts of 2019. Public company results should be decent in 2019, the comps are just harder to beat now.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 17, 2018, 10:23:05 AM
Shutdown don’t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on December 17, 2018, 10:43:34 AM
who's ready?

(https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/man-displays-a-hat-reading-dow-23000-on-the-floor-of-the-new-york-picture-id862510212?k=6&m=862510212&s=612x612&w=0&h=vHYH8vVtId1OEG05C_WtFv_ZzcPyZloZHwVqMJJQys4=)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on December 17, 2018, 12:38:41 PM
who's ready?

(https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/man-displays-a-hat-reading-dow-23000-on-the-floor-of-the-new-york-picture-id862510212?k=6&m=862510212&s=612x612&w=0&h=vHYH8vVtId1OEG05C_WtFv_ZzcPyZloZHwVqMJJQys4=)

Where’s the picture of the other hat?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 18, 2018, 01:54:20 PM
Man...thought about buying some Costco stock this morning but held back.  I mean both Costco and Apple are good buying range but with this market...who knows.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 18, 2018, 03:37:07 PM
This is why things “feel “ so bad ... despite overall down 3 percent for yr

Equal Weight S&P -6.2%
Midcaps -9.7%
Small caps -9.1%


Looking at 2015:
SPX +1.2%
Eq Wtd S&P -2.7%
Midcaps -2.5%
Small Caps -4.5%

Here is the kicker —

Trailing 5 year returns:

SPX 55.1%
Eq Wtd SPX 44.7%
Mid Caps 38.5%
Small caps 31.2%

TLT 33.1%  !!


Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Panda on December 18, 2018, 03:51:52 PM
I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 18, 2018, 04:23:26 PM
I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.

Rather do the short term ones...3 months to a year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 18, 2018, 05:12:29 PM
I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.

Rather do the short term ones...3 months to a year.

I would go up to 3 year . Even if they hike tomorrow , Fed is not going anywhere next year with oil now at 45 !!  Inflation , my foot !

Many of the “rising rates” trades of recent past will now reverse .

 For those who use financial advisors , expect a switcheroo now using terms like “moderating growth” , “soft landing” , “end to US exceptionalism” , etc etc. 

also expect many to start baiting you into going into emerging markets now as “rates may remain low for the foreseeable future”
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 19, 2018, 08:40:09 AM
Been awfully quiet from MAGA supporters about the market lately. I guess they are hungover from all the winning.

Any revised predictions where S&P and DJI end up for the year?

Look at the bright side — at least we are spared the agony (for now) of wading through copy and pasted articles from right wing nutjob sites that proclaim “winning “
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 19, 2018, 08:59:22 AM
I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.

Rather do the short term ones...3 months to a year.

I would go up to 3 year . Even if they hike tomorrow , Fed is not going anywhere next year with oil now at 45 !!  Inflation , my foot !

Many of the “rising rates” trades of recent past will now reverse .

 For those who use financial advisors , expect a switcheroo now using terms like “moderating growth” , “soft landing” , “end to US exceptionalism” , etc etc. 

also expect many to start baiting you into going into emerging markets now as “rates may remain low for the foreseeable future”

How does selling bonds early work?  What level of loss do you take?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 19, 2018, 09:52:03 AM
I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.

Rather do the short term ones...3 months to a year.

I would go up to 3 year . Even if they hike tomorrow , Fed is not going anywhere next year with oil now at 45 !!  Inflation , my foot !

Many of the “rising rates” trades of recent past will now reverse .

 For those who use financial advisors , expect a switcheroo now using terms like “moderating growth” , “soft landing” , “end to US exceptionalism” , etc etc. 

also expect many to start baiting you into going into emerging markets now as “rates may remain low for the foreseeable future”

How does selling bonds early work?  What level of loss do you take?

Not sure I understand - do you mean how does shorting treasuries work ?  You do it via futures or paying interest rate  swaps . But individuals generally cannot do that , institutions can . You could buy a retail fund which does that , but not without its own risk .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 19, 2018, 10:28:45 AM
I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.

Rather do the short term ones...3 months to a year.

I would go up to 3 year . Even if they hike tomorrow , Fed is not going anywhere next year with oil now at 45 !!  Inflation , my foot !

Many of the “rising rates” trades of recent past will now reverse .

 For those who use financial advisors , expect a switcheroo now using terms like “moderating growth” , “soft landing” , “end to US exceptionalism” , etc etc. 

also expect many to start baiting you into going into emerging markets now as “rates may remain low for the foreseeable future”

How does selling bonds early work?  What level of loss do you take?

Not sure I understand - do you mean how does shorting treasuries work ?  You do it via futures or paying interest rate  swaps . But individuals generally cannot do that , institutions can . You could buy a retail fund which does that , but not without its own risk .

I believe you essentially sell your bonds to someone else and take a discount.   

https://finance.zacks.com/penalty-selling-bond-early-8646.html
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 19, 2018, 11:45:15 AM
I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.

Rather do the short term ones...3 months to a year.

I would go up to 3 year . Even if they hike tomorrow , Fed is not going anywhere next year with oil now at 45 !!  Inflation , my foot !

Many of the “rising rates” trades of recent past will now reverse .

 For those who use financial advisors , expect a switcheroo now using terms like “moderating growth” , “soft landing” , “end to US exceptionalism” , etc etc. 

also expect many to start baiting you into going into emerging markets now as “rates may remain low for the foreseeable future”

How does selling bonds early work?  What level of loss do you take?

Not sure I understand - do you mean how does shorting treasuries work ?  You do it via futures or paying interest rate  swaps . But individuals generally cannot do that , institutions can . You could buy a retail fund which does that , but not without its own risk .

I believe you essentially sell your bonds to someone else and take a discount.   

https://finance.zacks.com/penalty-selling-bond-early-8646.html

Only if rates are higher . If they are lower , then could end up selling at a gain .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 19, 2018, 12:04:30 PM
Shutdown don’t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on December 19, 2018, 12:35:02 PM
The fed raised the rates..
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on December 19, 2018, 12:39:50 PM
Run for the hills. I told you this sh#t ain’t going to be pretty...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 19, 2018, 01:11:45 PM
Run for the hills. I told you this sh#t ain’t going to be pretty...

Shakin’ And bakin’ Baby. Will see who been swim naked in the near future.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: B2FiNiTY on December 19, 2018, 01:14:00 PM
Still in my bunker. Coast is not clear.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on December 19, 2018, 01:14:21 PM
Shutdown don’t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side?  :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 19, 2018, 01:19:10 PM
Look at the treasury market about to get inverted

Like I said — we may sleepwalk into a FED induced recession
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 19, 2018, 01:25:23 PM
Shutdown don’t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side?  :)

That right there is the problem

I completely ignore politics when it comes to money and finances .  My personal goal is to try to answer , not “what should happen “ but “ what will happen “ . This is why I sold my stocks in summer 2018 (and told everyone I was doing that ) and haven’t gotten back in yet . I have been a big proponent of investing in fixed income since then, especially short dated treasuries and muni bonds

Re Trump —- I do think The fed has their head in the sand right now . I was actually expecting trump to walk in there to the Powell presser and say “jay , you are fired “ :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 19, 2018, 01:26:23 PM
Shutdown don’t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side?  :)

That right there is the problem

I completely ignore politics when it comes to money and finances .  My personal goal is to try to answer , not “what should happen “ but “ what will happen “ . This is why I sold my stocks in summer 2018 (and told everyone I was doing that ) and haven’t gotten back in yet . I have been a big proponent of investing in fixed income since then, especially short dated treasuries and muni bonds

Re Trump —- I do think The fed has their head in the sand right now . I was actually expecting trump to walk in there to the Powell presser and say “jay , you are fired “ :)

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 19, 2018, 01:31:06 PM
Shutdown don’t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side?  :)

That right there is the problem

I completely ignore politics when it comes to money and finances .  My personal goal is to try to answer , not “what should happen “ but “ what will happen “ . This is why I sold my stocks in summer 2018 (and told everyone I was doing that ) and haven’t gotten back in yet . I have been a big proponent of investing in fixed income since then, especially short dated treasuries and muni bonds

Re Trump —- I do think The fed has their head in the sand right now . I was actually expecting trump to walk in there to the Powell presser and say “jay , you are fired “ :)

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.

Yes , but Powell let his ego take over . How is that better ?

If he was really rational he would look at this independently as an objective observer .

I do think they are getting boxed into a corner and next rate Move could be DOWN not UP
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 19, 2018, 01:38:09 PM

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.

Yes , but Powell let his ego take over . How is that better ?

If he was really rational he would look at this independently as an objective observer .

I do think they are getting boxed into a corner and next rate Move could be DOWN not UP
[/quote]

Fed has always been much more worried about an overheated economy than a cooling one.

TBF...it's not just Powell.  Policy is a vote by the board.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 19, 2018, 01:51:59 PM

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.

Yes , but Powell let his ego take over . How is that better ?

If he was really rational he would look at this independently as an objective observer .

I do think they are getting boxed into a corner and next rate Move could be DOWN not UP

Fed has always been much more worried about an overheated economy than a cooling one.

TBF...it's not just Powell.  Policy is a vote by the board.
[/quote]

The board is heavily influenced by the chairman who has the final say and can veto decisions . Kinda like your ceo at work - everyone s opinion is valuable but he is the ultimate decider
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 19, 2018, 01:57:48 PM

The board is heavily influenced by the chairman who has the final say and can veto decisions . Kinda like your ceo at work - everyone s opinion is valuable but he is the ultimate decider

Maybe but no dissents at all.

Quote
The Fed increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a new band of 2.25%-2.5%, putting the Fed funds rate at its highest level since the spring of 2008. All ten voting members of the FOMC voted in favor of Wednesday’s decision.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/preview-feds-last-monetary-policy-announcement-2018-155802273.html
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on December 19, 2018, 02:06:09 PM
trumpy bear (market) predicted this!

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/171222195239-trumpy-bear-large-169.jpg)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 19, 2018, 02:17:06 PM
trumpy bear (market) predicted this!

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/171222195239-trumpy-bear-large-169.jpg)

What?  Everyone predicted this...freaking even Jim Cramer predicted it.

.25 basis is a good compromise.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 19, 2018, 02:18:10 PM
Shutdown don’t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side?  :)

That right there is the problem

I completely ignore politics when it comes to money and finances .  My personal goal is to try to answer , not “what should happen “ but “ what will happen “ . This is why I sold my stocks in summer 2018 (and told everyone I was doing that ) and haven’t gotten back in yet . I have been a big proponent of investing in fixed income since then, especially short dated treasuries and muni bonds

Re Trump —- I do think The fed has their head in the sand right now . I was actually expecting trump to walk in there to the Powell presser and say “jay , you are fired “ :)

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.

Partially, I think that's true. But the real reasons for pushing rate higher is because data suggested or showed that rate and the US economy can still stands on further rate increase. There is just too much funny money that were given away to corporates America. And if stimulation needed by lowering rate, the FED has rooms to do it when US economy struggles. Right now, it will go higher and need to go higher.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 19, 2018, 02:25:42 PM

Partially, I think that's true. But the real reasons for pushing rate higher is because data suggested or showed that rate and the US economy can still stands on further rate increase. There is just too much funny money that were given away to corporates America. And if stimulation needed by lowering rate, the FED has rooms to do it when US economy struggles. Right now, it will go higher and need to go higher.

Yeah.  0.25 basis adjustment is not much at all.  GDP is still looking to be between 2 and 2.5 with potential for inflation.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 19, 2018, 02:39:45 PM
I would not be so quick in dismissing all this - monetary policy works w a lag  - market looks forward and tries to price all this quickly  and brings it forward

Powell is stuck looking at data from q3 not what’s about to hit him in the face like a ton of bricks
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 19, 2018, 03:15:26 PM
Would a severe recession and struggle economy push Trump out of office in 2020?


Maybe..
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 19, 2018, 03:17:17 PM
Does wealth gets created in SEVERE RECESSION.


Maybe......
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 19, 2018, 03:39:59 PM
Would a severe recession and struggle economy push Trump out of office in 2020?


Maybe..

Quote
Donald Trump counseled Trump University students to take advantage of the housing bubble as an investment opportunity and said, just a year before it burst, that he was “excited” for it to end because of the money he’d make.

“People have been talking about the end of the cycle for 12 years, and I'm excited if it is,’ he told the Globe and Mail in March of 2007. “I’ve always made more money in bad markets than in good markets.”


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-2007-i-m-excited-housing-market-crash-n578761
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 20, 2018, 09:04:46 AM
Just like I said several times before —

If there was any doubt as to who is in charge ... it’s the FED

trump (or for that matter Obama) doesn’t matter at this point in time
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on December 20, 2018, 09:17:20 AM
What is your new range, as we broke the floor?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on December 20, 2018, 10:46:52 AM
HO LEE FUK... I should have sold all my positions!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 20, 2018, 11:50:56 AM
For now , there is no circuit breaker

If you see a rally , it will be sold

In prior sell offs like this , fed always came to the rescue . Even in 2016 when they (global central banks) had the so called “shanghai accord” 

This time it is confusion and chaos . Powell is letting his ego and pride get the better of him

All the data which pointed to continued strength till September , you will see reverse one by one .

Yes , even that “consumer confidence “ number so often cited by my trump loving TI members - that’s about to flip too

Market is discounting all this rapidly and bringing the outcome forward
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on December 20, 2018, 12:11:46 PM
Two types of calls...

Amateurs...Panicked
Pro's....Giddy



https://youtu.be/cey3yy7gnHM (https://youtu.be/cey3yy7gnHM)

You are the weak and I am the Tyranny of evil men...but I am trying, real hard...to be the Shepard.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 20, 2018, 12:39:54 PM
These are the type of platitudes you see when people don’t have any facts to offer

The most bleeding and carnage on the street right now is among “pro “ hedge funds

Amateurs are the ones buying into stocks based on trumped up hype and “consumer confidence “  like many maga koolaid drinkers

For what it’s worth — I actually think it’s good that’s stocks are selling off now and cleaning up nicely for a rally maybe when some of the near term catalysts get behind us (China trade etc)

FWIW and for those who care , I am not buying stocks here yet ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Netperx on December 20, 2018, 01:46:24 PM
Good thing I dumped all my stocks for Bitcoin Cash yesterday
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 20, 2018, 02:13:12 PM
I bought tulips and avocados.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 20, 2018, 02:56:03 PM
I bought tulips and avocados.

Avocados are actually valuable and typically hold their value.  Plus if Armageddon hits, they are a good source of food!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 20, 2018, 02:59:46 PM
I bought tulips and avocados.

I hear WW2 German bonds are good.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on December 20, 2018, 03:18:06 PM
What is your new range, as we broke the floor?

With all the chest-thumping on this thread over the past few weeks, this was 100% predictable.  It was only a few days ago that I was told I should listen to him more if I wanted to improved my finances.  Like I said at that time, not only should you not listen to anonymous strangers for investing advice, but you should run the other way when they claim you should listen to them.

This brings up the question, who should you listen to?  My advice (as an anonymous poster) would be to search out guidance from those that display humility in their market calls.  They shouldn't have to brag about it like fortune11 or eyephone on a daily basis if they truly are market experts.

Blaming the Fed for being the Fed is one of the weakest excuses of all time.  The saying goes "Don't fight the Fed."  That's what I've based my investing on since the Great Financial Crisis and it has worked out very well.

The Fed created a bubble in the money (bonds) that inflated all assets.  Ever since the end of last year, they have been signalling that it will finally be coming to an end.  Adjust your positions accordingly.  Be nimble.  Be ready for surprises.  Also, don't hesitate to jump in for opportunistic buying when the market makes it worth your while.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 20, 2018, 03:19:27 PM
I don't listen to anyone.  I do my research and use common sense.

I love how all these stock brokers/analyst are whiny like little children who didn't get the toy they ask for.   Wall Street and brokers have made a ton of money in the last 8 years...writing has been on the wall for months.   
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on December 20, 2018, 03:58:06 PM
Who’s whining?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 20, 2018, 03:59:03 PM
Who’s whining?

Watch CNBC for like 30 seconds or the tweets of the orange colored president.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 20, 2018, 05:26:20 PM
I don't listen to anyone.  I do my research and use common sense.

I love how all these stock brokers/analyst are whiny like little children who didn't get the toy they ask for.   Wall Street and brokers have made a ton of money in the last 8 years...writing has been on the wall for months.   


The sugar high is wearing off, and many these traders/analysts have never had a bad year until now, almost a decade in the making. Adjustment, bear market is necessary and must happen. Where is Trump now with his saying, "Look at the Stock Market." "Look at your 401 K, what's left of it"  :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 20, 2018, 09:11:24 PM
Here is Johnny come lately Liar Loan right on cue ... AFTER THE FACT

AFTER the event has happened claiming he knew it all along — nice —   Has your copy and pasted “bond bubble “ burst yet ?

You are just pissed that there is someone on this forum who knows more than you and is willing to call your bluff each time :)  and your random pronouncements like the “bond bubble” don’t stand to scrutiny

Chest thumping is More applicable to MAGA koolaid drinkers like you and a bunch of others that are jumping up and down painting the forum with “winning”  without any sound logic

All I can do it report the facts objectively as I see them without attaching the 10 mile nonsense and personal attacks to every post like liar loan does . if i  am not sure about something I acknowledge it right up front instead of hiding behind some randomly sourced online link or article .

If you had listened to my advice as opposed to mortgage experts like liar loan and some others here , you would know that 10y rates aren’t really going up and there is no “bond bubble”  about to burst


If you had listened to my advice in the summer you would know that I sold my equities in August and missed the market top but also that I wasn’t perfectly fine missing it as I saw more downside coming after peak multiple and earnings in q2 .

People who listened to my advice and went into treasury bonds probably came out a lot ahead than if they had trusted the republican / MAGA advice of “in trumps stock market we trust “

Several people asked me when I am getting back in — I haven’t done that since. When I do , I will post it here .

And yes , that information will be 100x more useful than all the other MAGA related junk posted by liar loan and the likes  :)

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: zubs on December 21, 2018, 12:30:33 AM
2019 sees a possible impeachment and likely recession
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 21, 2018, 04:36:13 AM
This is another one of trumps gems from the summer , right around the time I exited equity beta in my acts and the time the MAGA folks on this forum were cheerleading everything and painting the forum with wall to wall economic posts everyday . Seems like an era ago now

Trump (8/30/18) — “The news from the Financial Markets is even better than anticipated. For all of you that have made a fortune in the markets, or seen your 401k’s rise beyond your wildest expectations, more good news is coming! “

Yes , recession in 2019 seems like a real possibility now (market implied odds are 60 percent ) . Not sure about impeachment though ... witness the recent cave in by the house over that stupid wall (or is it “slatted “ fence or whatever)


Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on December 21, 2018, 08:18:51 AM
2019 sees a possible impeachment and likely recession

I dunno... as crazy as our POTUS is, they couldn't get Bill (although more of a scandal than what Trump is being accused of) so I have doubts they will be able to get the Tangster.

Can tweets be used as incriminating evidence?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 21, 2018, 08:32:51 AM
2019 sees a possible impeachment and likely recession

I dunno... as crazy as our POTUS is, they couldn't get Bill (although more of a scandal than what Trump is being accused of) so I have doubts they will be able to get the Tangster.

Can tweets be used as incriminating evidence?

The things that Clinton was accused of is a lot less severity than Trump. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 21, 2018, 08:34:42 AM
2019 sees a possible impeachment and likely recession

I dunno... as crazy as our POTUS is, they couldn't get Bill (although more of a scandal than what Trump is being accused of) so I have doubts they will be able to get the Tangster.

Can tweets be used as incriminating evidence?

FCC and DOJ got Elon to resign his post as Chairman after proven his tweets manipulated Testla stocks price.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 26, 2018, 06:37:34 AM
For those interested — after exiting equities in August this year , I have  added some allocation now ( proportionally , If I sold 100 percent of my equity allocation in August , adding 25 percent now) .

Starting w SPY for now — remember market needs to give indication of stability before dabbling into individual stocks .

Well aware that we may see a further sell off from here before we find the bottom , but I just don’t see it happening in a big way unless we are actually heading into negative earnings yoy growth next year - which I don’t think is happening . That being said,  I do have a tight stop loss here of 5 percent to test that hypothesis .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on December 26, 2018, 06:55:40 AM
What’s your take on tech sector? Completely get out or ride it out for 5 years?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on December 26, 2018, 09:29:05 AM
For those interested — after exiting equities in August this year , I have  added some allocation now ( proportionally , If I sold 100 percent of my equity allocation in August , adding 25 percent now) .

Starting w SPY for now — remember market needs to give indication of stability before dabbling into individual stocks .

Well aware that we may see a further sell off from here before we find the bottom , but I just don’t see it happening in a big way unless we are actually heading into negative earnings yoy growth next year - which I don’t think is happening . That being said,  I do have a tight stop loss here of 5 percent to test that hypothesis .

Great minds think alike, I bought a good chunk of SSO this morning, Up 4% already
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: paperboyNC on December 26, 2018, 09:42:54 AM
For those interested — after exiting equities in August this year , I have  added some allocation now ( proportionally , If I sold 100 percent of my equity allocation in August , adding 25 percent now) .

Starting w SPY for now — remember market needs to give indication of stability before dabbling into individual stocks .

Well aware that we may see a further sell off from here before we find the bottom , but I just don’t see it happening in a big way unless we are actually heading into negative earnings yoy growth next year - which I don’t think is happening . That being said,  I do have a tight stop loss here of 5 percent to test that hypothesis .

Great minds think alike, I bought a good chunk of SSO this morning, Up 4% already

I never sold unfortunately, but took a good chunk of cash laying around and bought SPY this morning.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 26, 2018, 01:17:44 PM
Every time a US president has phoned a child to tell them Santa doesn't exist, the Dow Jones has gained a thousand points :) 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on December 26, 2018, 01:42:51 PM
This rally is bitter sweet.  I almost want us to hang around in bear market territory for 12ish months just to get it over with and move on.  If we jump back up to new highs in Q1 2019, I'm sure the bear market is in for a not-so-nice rest of the year.  Weird logic, I know.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 26, 2018, 02:36:45 PM
This rally is bitter sweet.  I almost want us to hang around in bear market territory for 12ish months just to get it over with and move on.  If we jump back up to new highs in Q1 2019, I'm sure the bear market is in for a not-so-nice rest of the year.  Weird logic, I know.

Dead Cat bounces are the dying gasps of the bulls.  No one wants to admit that the market is going down.

If anything, the 1000 point gain shows that emotions, not fundamentals, are controlling.  Time to get out.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 26, 2018, 03:28:14 PM
This rally is bitter sweet.  I almost want us to hang around in bear market territory for 12ish months just to get it over with and move on.  If we jump back up to new highs in Q1 2019, I'm sure the bear market is in for a not-so-nice rest of the year.  Weird logic, I know.

Dead Cat bounces are the dying gasps of the bulls.  No one wants to admit that the market is going down.

If anything, the 1000 point gain shows that emotions, not fundamentals, are controlling.  Time to get out.

Bear market rallies are a distinct feature of a market going through a bigger correction

But the kicker is - you will ONLY know that in hindsight AFTER the fact . And someone will come along on this forum claiming they knew it was going to happen all along.

The deal is this - market was oversold by every measure at least in my book and I saw a chance to get back in if it is indeed a continuation of the long term bull market trend line

If it is a indeed break , you still want to have dry powder available to invest - hence my 25 percent comment

Also worthwhile to move your stop loss progressively higher as you make profits so that you lock in gains or at least break even

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 26, 2018, 03:44:45 PM
This rally is bitter sweet.  I almost want us to hang around in bear market territory for 12ish months just to get it over with and move on.  If we jump back up to new highs in Q1 2019, I'm sure the bear market is in for a not-so-nice rest of the year.  Weird logic, I know.

Dead Cat bounces are the dying gasps of the bulls.  No one wants to admit that the market is going down.

If anything, the 1000 point gain shows that emotions, not fundamentals, are controlling.  Time to get out.

Bear market rallies are a distinct feature of a market going through a bigger correction

But the kicker is - you will ONLY know that in hindsight AFTER the fact . And someone will come along on this forum claiming they knew it was going to happen all along.

The deal is this - market was oversold by every measure at least in my book and I saw a chance to get back in if it is indeed a continuation of the long term bull market trend line

If it is a indeed break , you still want to have dry powder available to invest - hence my 25 percent comment

Also worthwhile to move your stop loss progressively higher as you make profits so that you lock in gains or at least break even

Trying to figure out if I want to cash out my savings or get tax breaks for my losses.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 26, 2018, 05:35:28 PM
This rally is bitter sweet.  I almost want us to hang around in bear market territory for 12ish months just to get it over with and move on.  If we jump back up to new highs in Q1 2019, I'm sure the bear market is in for a not-so-nice rest of the year.  Weird logic, I know.

That can happen if we have a 2000-2002 like market behavior with several bear rallies in between punctuated by fed rate cuts . But remember , market is a lot more “pull forward-y” now and what used to transpire over months tends to get priced in days . Hence the big 20 percent correction , a lot quicker than the 2014-15 timeframe

Another tip I have free of financial advisor commissions — look at high yield or junk bond funds — if oil continues climbing and fed blinks which they likely will , you are setup for a nice 8 to 9 percent return there .

All this assumes we are not headed into a full blown recession — I believe we are not . In fact this market sell off may have extended the cycle by a couple more years.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on December 26, 2018, 11:33:43 PM
This rally is bitter sweet.  I almost want us to hang around in bear market territory for 12ish months just to get it over with and move on.  If we jump back up to new highs in Q1 2019, I'm sure the bear market is in for a not-so-nice rest of the year.  Weird logic, I know.

That can happen if we have a 2000-2002 like market behavior with several bear rallies in between punctuated by fed rate cuts . But remember , market is a lot more “pull forward-y” now and what used to transpire over months tends to get priced in days . Hence the big 20 percent correction , a lot quicker than the 2014-15 timeframe

Another tip I have free of financial advisor commissions — look at high yield or junk bond funds — if oil continues climbing and fed blinks which they likely will , you are setup for a nice 8 to 9 percent return there .

All this assumes we are not headed into a full blown recession — I believe we are not . In fact this market sell off may have extended the cycle by a couple more years.

Good call Fortune. Your screen name reflects your wealth :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on December 27, 2018, 05:42:19 AM
glad to see everyone listened to your favorite president to buy the dip!  merry christmas!

Quote
With Trump Preaching Buy the Dip, Stocks Look Cheapest in Years
By Chris Anstey
December 26, 2018, 2:07 AM PST

The flip side of what’s been the third-worst month for American stocks in the postwar era is that prices are a whole lot cheaper than they were before the rout.

While it may take a strong stomach to nibble at U.S. equities, they do offer the most attractive valuations since 2013, measured by the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 Index in data compiled by Bloomberg. At little more than 13 times the coming year’s estimated earnings, American stocks are also looking less of an outlier versus other advanced markets than earlier this year.

President Donald Trump was less equivocal about American companies at the White House Tuesday: “They have record kinds of numbers. So I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy. Really a great opportunity to buy.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-26/trump-says-buy-the-dip-and-why-not-at-valuations-like-these (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-26/trump-says-buy-the-dip-and-why-not-at-valuations-like-these)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on December 27, 2018, 08:09:00 AM
glad to see everyone listened to your favorite president to buy the dip!  merry christmas!

Quote
With Trump Preaching Buy the Dip, Stocks Look Cheapest in Years
By Chris Anstey
December 26, 2018, 2:07 AM PST

The flip side of what’s been the third-worst month for American stocks in the postwar era is that prices are a whole lot cheaper than they were before the rout.

While it may take a strong stomach to nibble at U.S. equities, they do offer the most attractive valuations since 2013, measured by the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 Index in data compiled by Bloomberg. At little more than 13 times the coming year’s estimated earnings, American stocks are also looking less of an outlier versus other advanced markets than earlier this year.

President Donald Trump was less equivocal about American companies at the White House Tuesday: “They have record kinds of numbers. So I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy. Really a great opportunity to buy.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-26/trump-says-buy-the-dip-and-why-not-at-valuations-like-these (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-26/trump-says-buy-the-dip-and-why-not-at-valuations-like-these)

LOL...seriously, Bagdad Bob has nothing on Trumpers.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Loco_local on December 27, 2018, 09:37:45 AM
glad to see everyone listened to your favorite president to buy the dip!  merry christmas!


That SSO isn't looking so good this morning. I blame the Fed and Obama.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on December 27, 2018, 11:45:11 AM
glad to see everyone listened to your favorite president to buy the dip!  merry christmas!




That SSO isn't looking so good this morning. I blame the Fed and Obama.

It was good for me, it was a short term trade that became a day trade.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 27, 2018, 12:44:32 PM
glad to see everyone listened to your favorite president to buy the dip!  merry christmas!


That SSO isn't looking so good this morning. I blame the Fed and Obama.

:)  correct - rallies are all trump and selloffs are democrats

On a serious note I added 10 percent more this am and moved my stops higher , now at 35 percent allocation (from zero last week) . Likely will sit tight here until Jan .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on December 27, 2018, 12:50:12 PM
glad to see everyone listened to your favorite president to buy the dip!  merry christmas!


That SSO isn't looking so good this morning. I blame the Fed and Obama.

The Fed chairman was appointed by Trump.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on December 27, 2018, 01:35:39 PM
Free advice to those who care  — For now, SPY, QQQ etc are still in longer term downtrends, so my only long side activity here is the index ETFs and not going after any single stock names. If/when it reverts to uptrend, I will branch out into singles. But not touching them until then.

On a different note — Most interesting part of speaking with non finance/MBA types the last week or so was when asked why the market was selling off, it was much harder to explain than e.g. late 15/16. Also, oddly got asked a lot more this time, perhaps cause real damage then was done late Jan/Feb, not Dec.

One common theme though was everyone asking assumed it had something to do with Trump. And yes, there's obviously selection bias in that, but I was in purple type crowd (not exactly CA purple either) FWIW

Another common theme was a few people echoing their financial advisors as being clueless in terms of tangible and actionable market advice as opposed to the generic sound bites and articles they were provided on their “platforms” . I suspect many of those advisors are about to lose these clients in the new year.



Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on December 27, 2018, 02:14:05 PM
Market closed higher; seems like you know your game well

Free advice to those who care  — For now, SPY, QQQ etc are still in longer term downtrends, so my only long side activity here is the index ETFs and not going after any single stock names. If/when it reverts to uptrend, I will branch out into singles. But not touching them until then.

On a different note — Most interesting part of speaking with non finance/MBA types the last week or so was when asked why the market was selling off, it was much harder to explain than e.g. late 15/16. Also, oddly got asked a lot more this time, perhaps cause real damage then was done late Jan/Feb, not Dec.

One common theme though was everyone asking assumed it had something to do with Trump. And yes, there's obviously selection bias in that, but I was in purple type crowd (not exactly CA purple either) FWIW

Another common theme was a few people echoing their financial advisors as being clueless in terms of tangible and actionable market advice as opposed to the generic sound bites and articles they were provided on their “platforms” . I suspect many of those advisors are about to lose these clients in the new year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on December 31, 2018, 11:40:59 AM
Just sold some stock at a loss. (For tax purposes)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on January 02, 2019, 09:12:20 AM
Just sold some stock at a loss. (For tax purposes)

Find a girl with a huge stock loss, marry her with prenup, wash your stock gains, divorce her. Win!

Does this work?  ;D
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 02, 2019, 03:48:08 PM
Just sold some stock at a loss. (For tax purposes)

Find a girl with a huge stock loss, marry her with prenup, wash your stock gains, divorce her. Win!

Does this work?  ;D

I believe so. 

Awkward conversation: Do you invest in stocks? If so, do you own stocks that are at a loss.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on January 02, 2019, 04:04:56 PM
Are you guys ready for blood bath tomorrow?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on January 02, 2019, 05:52:20 PM
Are you guys ready for blood bath tomorrow?

I made very good money when stocks bottomed last time. Sold a couple days later and ready for the next wave down. Maybe we don't go lower, maybe it takes a while..... earnings for other companies are going to cause ripples too is my guess.

Bear markets are the time to real in cash in a hurry as long as you are in cash.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on January 02, 2019, 09:16:51 PM
As for Apple, it will tank, either all in one day or over a few and when some big trader/investor is done buying, they will announce they bought and what a bargain it is and bamm…… sheep will buy it while the trader/investor books a nice profit.


Watch out for next quarter guidance though.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 03, 2019, 05:23:11 AM
Are you guys ready for blood bath tomorrow?

Remember what I said before —- federal reserve matters more than anything else at this point , notwithstanding this aapl news which every analyst  worth their job description should have seen coming

For those interested in what I am doing , not touching aapl here . Need to see more evidence in the charts of a sustained bottom
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on January 03, 2019, 06:46:19 AM
Are you buying more or wait-n-watch?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on January 03, 2019, 08:56:18 AM
My stocks are taking a pounding. My AAPL and BRK not doing too well.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 03, 2019, 10:22:02 AM
Are you buying more or wait-n-watch?

I am comfortable w my 35 percent allocation for now . Stops haven’t been hit .

Big picture , whether the fed believes it or not, the equity and bond markets ( yield curve today) are pricing in a recession . If that is indeed the case , I want some more evidence of fed being supportive as opposed to the ivory tower mentality they have now — before I add more

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on January 03, 2019, 10:37:07 AM
Are you buying more or wait-n-watch?

I am comfortable w my 35 percent allocation for now . Stops haven’t been hit .

Big picture , whether the fed believes it or not, the equity and bond markets ( yield curve today) are pricing in a recession . If that is indeed the case , I want some more evidence of fed being supportive as opposed to the ivory tower mentality they have now — before I add more

Mortgage rates are amazing right now. I just locked.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on January 03, 2019, 11:01:53 AM
Some of the AAPL puts for tomorrow expiry are up 40x+...

Gotta be some insider trading here, volume is huuuuuge (Donald Trump voice)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: marmott on January 03, 2019, 01:16:07 PM
Mortgage rates are amazing right now. I just locked.

How amazing are we talking about? Late 2017 amazing?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Panda on January 03, 2019, 02:59:00 PM
I am currently 80% in a bonds / 20% gold portfolio in my equity exposure as of October 2018 going into 2019. Nailed it right when the 10 year hit 3.15%.

Good luck to you all.

Panda
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 03, 2019, 03:38:30 PM
Mortgage rates are amazing right now. I just locked.

How amazing are we talking about? Late 2017 amazing?

Apparently close.  Average for 30 year is at about 4.4%

Quote
Mortgage rates have been plummeting, depending on your definition of the word.  To be sure, the past 2 months have no competition in nearly 3 years.  The past few days have been special in their own right.  Whereas there was cause for concern about the new year bringing a bounce for stock prices and mortgage rates, stocks haven't done much of anything in the context of their late-2018 volatility, and mortgage rates have dropped another eighth of a percentage point (or more, depending on the lender).

There are now lenders quoting 30yr fixed rates as low as 4.375% on top tier scenarios with the average lender back to 4.5%.  That's quite a jump from the 5.125% average at the recent highs (just 2 months ago).

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/892501.aspx
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 03, 2019, 03:39:20 PM
Some of the AAPL puts for tomorrow expiry are up 40x+...

Gotta be some insider trading here, volume is huuuuuge (Donald Trump voice)

People trying to get in on a "bargain".  The more I think of it...the less I like Apple. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 03, 2019, 03:43:58 PM
I am currently 80% in a bonds / 20% gold portfolio in my equity exposure as of October 2018 going into 2019. Nailed it right when the 10 year hit 3.15%.

Good luck to you all.

Panda

Very nice.  I think I'm going to stick with the 3-month with a 2.4% yield. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on January 03, 2019, 05:59:39 PM
Mortgage rates are amazing right now. I just locked.

How amazing are we talking about? Late 2017 amazing?

3.99% 30 fixed no point no lender fees...or appraisal fees. It's pretty damn amazing.

Just 3 months ago I closed 4.75% 30 fixed no point no fees but paying appraisal on investment property.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on January 03, 2019, 06:04:50 PM
Marmott - as with all rate quotes it's "context, context, context" and "YMMV".

The Average Rate data you see through Mortgage News Daily is a nice general view, but don't take into account the dozens of variables that go into a deliverable refinance rate. That said, if you've got a healthy loan to value position, a high FICO, and a strong banking relationship with one of the biggies, you could see a great refinance opportunity coming soon. All this is dependent upon the vintage of your current mortgage.

Anyone in the pre Q2 2018 vintage mortgage arena closed in the upper 3's fixed and mid 3's ARM. These loans for the most part cannot be refinanced in this present rate environment. If you have a 2018 Q3 to Q4 closed loan, it's time to call and see what's possible. Most borrowers closed in the mid to upper 4's fixed and high 3's with ARM loans during that time period. Most lenders are .25 to .50 lower for little to no cost.

I can't stand lenders who push "NOWS THE TIME BECAUSE RATES WILL NEVER BE THIS LOW AGAIN" as a motivator to refinance. Bearing this in mind, there is no clear direction for rates over the next 6-8 months. The Fed might cut rates or indicate an extended pause, unexpectedly drawing cash back out of mortgage backed securities and into stocks. Wild swings, up and down, are the norm and it's possible to anticipate one thing, yet get something else altogether.

Another concern would be property values. If you bought with 80% Loan To Value financing in August, today that might be an 82% loan to value deal. By March it could be an 85% loan to value deal, making a refinance than ever to transact effectively. Don't be shocked if your refinance appraisal does not come in as high as you might have expected.

If the refinance deal makes sense now, take the bird in hand and don't wait for a deal that might turn out to be more of a vapor, a mirage, that has come and gone before you know it.

My .02c
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 03, 2019, 06:42:31 PM
That’s a great rate , Well done

I would say everyone with a recent mortgage should at least take a look at their refi options now . In the scenario where trump ends up firing jay powell , you will see long term rates blow out (while short term may rally)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 04, 2019, 07:05:21 AM
Fed speeches getting more dovish I will see what Powell says today

Maybe this is the wrong thread for this — but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence — you need to also be thinking ...

Think of this scenario — fed turns dovish on rates — trump calls ceasefire w Chiina — pboc keeps cutting rates — semi stocks stabilize — s&p hits 15 percents from here ...

Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does — you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Soylent Green Is People on January 04, 2019, 07:43:26 AM
Today - Friday, Jan 5th 2029 is a prime example:

5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government,  Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)

6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)

9:00 AM ?????

This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title  this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.

My .02c
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 04, 2019, 08:56:49 AM
It doesn’t surprise me that you try to spin the conversation.

Why don’t you also mention the following:
1. Fed chairman Powelll mentioned that he would not resign if Trump asks him to.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/423869-fed-chief-powell-says-he-wont-resign-if-trump-asked-him-to

2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/01/04/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-said-friday-central-bank-patient-weighs-future-interest-rate-hike/2478660002/

3. Your statement regarding Senators continue to oppose reopening the government is not completely true.

GOP Senator Cory Gardner Says Congress Should Reopen Government Without Wall

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c2e82c1e4b05c88b7078eee


Today - Friday, Jan 5th 2029 is a prime example:

5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government,  Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)

6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)

9:00 AM ?????

This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title  this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.

My .02c
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 04, 2019, 09:31:55 AM
I keep repeating myself — political stuff like impeachment shutdown etc don’t matter for the markets at this point in time (it is noise not signal)

What matters ...

Fed
Oil
China/trade

Fed is 1 , the rest are 2/3 interchangeably
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 04, 2019, 09:47:12 AM
Hey he brought it up not me. He tries to takes shots with his message like no one is paying attention, but it completely fails. (Again and again)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 04, 2019, 09:50:15 AM
I keep repeating myself — political stuff like impeachment shutdown etc don’t matter for the markets at this point in time (it is noise not signal)

What matters ...

Fed
Oil
China/trade

Fed is 1 , the rest are 2/3 interchangeably

All I got to say look at the services that are affected due to the government shutdown.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 04, 2019, 10:12:48 AM
I keep repeating myself — political stuff like impeachment shutdown etc don’t matter for the markets at this point in time (it is noise not signal)

What matters ...

Fed
Oil
China/trade

Fed is 1 , the rest are 2/3 interchangeably

All I got to say look at the services that are affected due to the government shutdown.

Yes , and I don’t disagree w you on that point — shutdown is a bad, and really dumb and stupid thing especially for a country like ours .

But the question I am trying to answer for our audience here is what will it take to turn a 20 percent correction in the s&p around ?  What will help us make more $$ ? And the shutdown is a minor factor from purely that angle . 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 04, 2019, 10:24:54 AM
It’s not only dumb, but safety might possibly be an issue. Someone working that is not getting paid (basically working do free) is probably not going to work the same.

For example. Do you expect a typical intern that’s working for free to be the backbone of a company? (exclude the interns at the top firms/companies they are like 1%)

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on January 04, 2019, 10:53:03 AM
nobody is working for free.  they will all be paid when the government opens back up.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 04, 2019, 11:18:36 AM
nobody is working for free.  they will all be paid when the government opens back up.

Trust me they are not getting paid now. They will get paid later. What do they do when they do when they pay their rent or buy food? (I’m assuming that’s on the back of their mind when some are working. Keep in mind not all of them are working.)

This is coming from a guy who watches F News

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on January 04, 2019, 01:44:21 PM
It’s not only dumb, but safety might possibly be an issue. Someone working that is not getting paid (basically working do free) is probably not going to work the same.

For example. Do you expect a typical intern that’s working for free to be the backbone of a company? (exclude the interns at the top firms/companies they are like 1%)

When the state wasn't paying during shutdowns, nurses were not being paid at UCI and they worked the same as when they were getting paid.

Now maybe there is some study I don't know of that shows there were adverse patient outcomes due to nurses slacking off because they were not getting paid, please provide a link so I can read it.

When someone tried to recruit me to work extra hours at UCI, she told me...… keep in mind we don't get paid on time during budget shut downs.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 04, 2019, 02:07:42 PM
It’s not only dumb, but safety might possibly be an issue. Someone working that is not getting paid (basically working do free) is probably not going to work the same.

For example. Do you expect a typical intern that’s working for free to be the backbone of a company? (exclude the interns at the top firms/companies they are like 1%)

When the state wasn't paying during shutdowns, nurses were not being paid at UCI and they worked the same as when they were getting paid.

Now maybe there is some study I don't know of that shows there were adverse patient outcomes due to nurses slacking off because they were not getting paid, please provide a link so I can read it.

When someone tried to recruit me to work extra hours at UCI, she told me...… keep in mind we don't get paid on time during budget shut downs.

I guess you can compare to nursing strike to US federal shutdown. (or maybe not)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 04, 2019, 03:23:34 PM
nobody is working for free.  they will all be paid when the government opens back up.

Great...that's going to be really good for them when they have to pay bills this month.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on January 04, 2019, 05:42:50 PM
It’s not only dumb, but safety might possibly be an issue. Someone working that is not getting paid (basically working do free) is probably not going to work the same.

For example. Do you expect a typical intern that’s working for free to be the backbone of a company? (exclude the interns at the top firms/companies they are like 1%)

When the state wasn't paying during shutdowns, nurses were not being paid at UCI and they worked the same as when they were getting paid.

Now maybe there is some study I don't know of that shows there were adverse patient outcomes due to nurses slacking off because they were not getting paid, please provide a link so I can read it.

When someone tried to recruit me to work extra hours at UCI, she told me...… keep in mind we don't get paid on time during budget shut downs.

I guess you can compare to nursing strike to US federal shutdown. (or maybe not)

The nurses do not go on strike. They work for free (until the budget is fixed) since they work for the government. It might be hard for you to think of nurses not getting paid at UCI since it's been many years since the state had a budget issue where they weren't paying state workers.

If they went on strike it would be their option whether they would cross the picket line and get paid. A budget shut down is not.

Should they go on strike, they can always work at another hospital for money. If they worked at UCI it was for no money till the state fixed the budget.

Big diff between a nurse on strike (which is kinda rare here in So Cal cuz the only real union is Kaiser) and a budget shut down.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 04, 2019, 06:24:37 PM
I am very mindful of being dismissive of eyephone s viewpoint , even if people may differ on style etc

He was calling for a housing slowdown well before anyone here was, at least to my knowledge — also unique that housing was an early mover this time around , triggered by higher rates and high prices — official data proved him right six months later

What I should say is this — shutdown doesn’t matter to the markets today as opposed to the other factors I outlined (notably fed)

BUT this is because the market is assuming it will remain TEMPORARY and someone will cave

If this thing drags on for months and into second quarter then the second third order effects will start to be felt and as you know , doesn’t take much for the market to price all the bad stuff in a matter of days !

So let’s see how this drama plays out with trump digging his heels in ...

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 04, 2019, 06:37:02 PM

Another tip I have free of financial advisor commissions — look at high yield or junk bond funds — if oil continues climbing and fed blinks which they likely will , you are setup for a nice 8 to 9 percent return there .

All this assumes we are not headed into a full blown recession — I believe we are not . In fact this market sell off may have extended the cycle by a couple more years.

Those who acted on this advice will have made a nice chunk of change today — doesn’t take a big stock rally to get 10 percent return from the recent lows in this sector as long as no recession .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on January 04, 2019, 07:54:34 PM
I did and agree
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 07, 2019, 09:14:02 AM
More advice (for those who care) 

Don’t dabble in single stocks here - many more negative surprises may lie ahead when q4 and guidance comes out  . Need that out of the way first . If you are day trading in and out , this does not apply to you .

You must have done well if you bought indices during late dec when I recommended to go long . Still good , but don’t chase it much past 2700 if we get there too quickly

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on January 07, 2019, 10:26:39 AM
Option trading has been tough to make money in this market over the last couple months.  The volatility has really spiked option premiums upward.  Many weeks I would buy same week expiry index calls or puts (DIA/SPY/QQQ), and in a days time the index would be up or down a full % point in my favor only to learn that my option contract would have remained neutral price or gone up/down a few percent only.  You need huge moves to make decent money in options these days.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 07, 2019, 11:38:59 AM
It doesn’t surprise me that you try to spin the conversation.

Why don’t you also mention the following:
1. Fed chairman Powelll mentioned that he would not resign if Trump asks him to.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/423869-fed-chief-powell-says-he-wont-resign-if-trump-asked-him-to

2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/01/04/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-said-friday-central-bank-patient-weighs-future-interest-rate-hike/2478660002/

3. Your statement regarding Senators continue to oppose reopening the government is not completely true.

GOP Senator Cory Gardner Says Congress Should Reopen Government Without Wall

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c2e82c1e4b05c88b7078eee


Today - Friday, Jan 5th 2029 is a prime example:

5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government,  Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)

6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)

9:00 AM ?????

This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title  this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.

My .02c

Did I miss a page of this thread?

I don't see where SGIP is spinning anything. Looks like he's just saying that rates can vary on any announcement whether it makes sense or not, it's very difficult to draw a direct correlation between interest rates and whatever is going on politically.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 08, 2019, 09:45:27 AM
It doesn’t surprise me that you try to spin the conversation.

Why don’t you also mention the following:
1. Fed chairman Powelll mentioned that he would not resign if Trump asks him to.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/423869-fed-chief-powell-says-he-wont-resign-if-trump-asked-him-to

2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/01/04/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-said-friday-central-bank-patient-weighs-future-interest-rate-hike/2478660002/

3. Your statement regarding Senators continue to oppose reopening the government is not completely true.

GOP Senator Cory Gardner Says Congress Should Reopen Government Without Wall

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c2e82c1e4b05c88b7078eee


Today - Friday, Jan 5th 2029 is a prime example:

5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government,  Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)

6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)

9:00 AM ?????

This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title  this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.

My .02c

Did I miss a page of this thread?

I don't see where SGIP is spinning anything. Looks like he's just saying that rates can vary on any announcement whether it makes sense or not, it's very difficult to draw a direct correlation between interest rates and whatever is going on politically.

He talked about the rates and made a political opinion. But did not state all the facts. Blanket statement that senators oppose from opening the government is not true. Actually there might two GOP senators that are willing to sign a budget without funding a wall.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 08, 2019, 09:52:23 AM
He talked about the rates and made a political opinion. But did not state all the facts. Blanket statement that senators oppose from opening the government is not true. Actually there might two GOP senators that are willing to sign a budget without funding a wall.

The bill that the House just passed previously passed Senate 100-0...that's like naming of Post Office level of agreement.  But of course, we can't pass that bill now!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 08, 2019, 10:03:23 AM
He talked about the rates and made a political opinion. But did not state all the facts. Blanket statement that senators oppose from opening the government is not true. Actually there might two GOP senators that are willing to sign a budget without funding a wall.

The bill that the House just passed previously passed Senate 100-0...that's like naming of Post Office level of agreement.  But of course, we can't pass that bill now!

nailed it
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 08, 2019, 11:30:24 AM
It doesn’t surprise me that you try to spin the conversation.

Why don’t you also mention the following:
1. Fed chairman Powelll mentioned that he would not resign if Trump asks him to.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/423869-fed-chief-powell-says-he-wont-resign-if-trump-asked-him-to

2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/01/04/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-said-friday-central-bank-patient-weighs-future-interest-rate-hike/2478660002/

3. Your statement regarding Senators continue to oppose reopening the government is not completely true.

GOP Senator Cory Gardner Says Congress Should Reopen Government Without Wall

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c2e82c1e4b05c88b7078eee


Today - Friday, Jan 5th 2029 is a prime example:

5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government,  Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)

6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)

9:00 AM ?????

This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title  this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.

My .02c

Did I miss a page of this thread?

I don't see where SGIP is spinning anything. Looks like he's just saying that rates can vary on any announcement whether it makes sense or not, it's very difficult to draw a direct correlation between interest rates and whatever is going on politically.

He talked about the rates and made a political opinion. But did not state all the facts. Blanket statement that senators oppose from opening the government is not true. Actually there might two GOP senators that are willing to sign a budget without funding a wall.



I get that you may have an issue with his 5:00AM example but I don't think that's the gist of his post.

He was just saying that rates can vary independently of what is going on politically. He even said:

Quote
This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment...

So whatever he said about politics may or may not be correct... but the point he made about rates seems to be relevant. I think there has been so much back and forth in the political threads that some of that fervor is spilling over here.

Can we get back to the Dow?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 08, 2019, 12:10:47 PM
Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative. Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Of course we can talk about the Dow.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 08, 2019, 02:22:29 PM
Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative.

But the particular narrative here was how low mortgage rates are. Then someone said it could be affected by politics and SGIP chimed in that rates could be affected by anything.

I don't see how that was changing the narrative. Maybe it challenged what you feel politically but that's a separate issue.

Quote
Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Sure, but that happened there. Again, the focus of his post here was the whim of rates, not really politics. Maybe he used a bad example to illustrate what he was saying but you keep digressing from the intent (at least what I think the intent was).

Quote
Of course we can talk about the Dow.

Please.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 08, 2019, 02:46:55 PM
What are you his Rudy? Because your not doing a good job defending him. In essence your continuing the conversation. I don’t mind actually.

Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative.

But the particular narrative here was how low mortgage rates are. Then someone said it could be affected by politics and SGIP chimed in that rates could be affected by anything.

I don't see how that was changing the narrative. Maybe it challenged what you feel politically but that's a separate issue.

Quote
Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Sure, but that happened there. Again, the focus of his post here was the whim of rates, not really politics. Maybe he used a bad example to illustrate what he was saying but you keep digressing from the intent (at least what I think the intent was).

Quote
Of course we can talk about the Dow.

Please.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Mety on January 08, 2019, 02:59:08 PM
He is his Kanye.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 08, 2019, 03:01:26 PM
He is his Kanye.

Lol that’s funny.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on January 10, 2019, 07:16:17 AM
What are you his Rudy? Because your not doing a good job defending him. In essence your continuing the conversation. I don’t mind actually.

Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative.

But the particular narrative here was how low mortgage rates are. Then someone said it could be affected by politics and SGIP chimed in that rates could be affected by anything.

I don't see how that was changing the narrative. Maybe it challenged what you feel politically but that's a separate issue.

Quote
Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Sure, but that happened there. Again, the focus of his post here was the whim of rates, not really politics. Maybe he used a bad example to illustrate what he was saying but you keep digressing from the intent (at least what I think the intent was).

Quote
Of course we can talk about the Dow.

Please.

Interesting words you are using... "defending"... does that mean you are "attacking"?

All I am saying is that to me, his post was about the whim of rates, sure he may have referenced something political but that he was just continuing on the theme that fortune11 had posted right before:

Fed speeches getting more dovish I will see what Powell says today

Maybe this is the wrong thread for this — but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence — you need to also be thinking ...

Think of this scenario — fed turns dovish on rates — trump calls ceasefire w Chiina — pboc keeps cutting rates — semi stocks stabilize — s&p hits 15 percents from here ...

Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does — you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself

Again, maybe because you guys don't align politically shouldn't detract from the point of his post that rate fluctuation is very hard to predict based on politics.

Do you agree or disagree with that? And does that same principal apply to the Dow?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 10, 2019, 09:12:23 AM
notice how despite all the bad earnings pre announcements, bad outlooks , etc (American air, retailers , autos) , market is nearly unchanged today ? 

it is about what is priced in -- the stock market , for better or worse, is the BEST economic forecaster we have out there. 

Fed better understand that soon enough.  Seeing the speeches and public comments from Fed governors last few days , looks like they are finally getting the message ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 30, 2019, 11:49:11 AM
exactly like I predicted ...  dovish fed and continued risk on .  housing market will take notice too, just may take a bit longer

now see your financial advisor fit a story to "backsplain" whatever happened ...
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on January 30, 2019, 11:59:55 AM
exactly like I predicted ...  dovish fed and continued risk on .  housing market will take notice too, just may take a bit longer

now see your financial advisor fit a story to "backsplain" whatever happened ...

High - Five Fortune11....
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 30, 2019, 12:25:35 PM
I don’t know about the housing prediction. I’m still seeing price reductions for homes across markets through out the US. (includes new homes)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 30, 2019, 12:28:44 PM
The fed mentioned they are watching Brexit talks and it may have an impact to US companies.

I understand why many are against Brexit. The offer they got from the EU would put them in big time debt. (It’s another thing I’m watching)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 30, 2019, 12:37:10 PM
Just got some 9 month bonds...yield is higher than the 2 year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: nosuchreality on January 30, 2019, 01:00:52 PM

Again, maybe because you guys don't align politically ...


JIMHO, the chronic pissing match is well into the Stalkerish zone.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on January 30, 2019, 03:00:23 PM
What are you his Rudy? Because your not doing a good job defending him. In essence your continuing the conversation. I don’t mind actually.

Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative.

But the particular narrative here was how low mortgage rates are. Then someone said it could be affected by politics and SGIP chimed in that rates could be affected by anything.

I don't see how that was changing the narrative. Maybe it challenged what you feel politically but that's a separate issue.

Quote
Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Sure, but that happened there. Again, the focus of his post here was the whim of rates, not really politics. Maybe he used a bad example to illustrate what he was saying but you keep digressing from the intent (at least what I think the intent was).

Quote
Of course we can talk about the Dow.

Please.

Interesting words you are using... "defending"... does that mean you are "attacking"?

All I am saying is that to me, his post was about the whim of rates, sure he may have referenced something political but that he was just continuing on the theme that fortune11 had posted right before:

Fed speeches getting more dovish I will see what Powell says today

Maybe this is the wrong thread for this — but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence — you need to also be thinking ...

Think of this scenario — fed turns dovish on rates — trump calls ceasefire w Chiina — pboc keeps cutting rates — semi stocks stabilize — s&p hits 15 percents from here ...

Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does — you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself

Again, maybe because you guys don't align politically shouldn't detract from the point of his post that rate fluctuation is very hard to predict based on politics.

Do you agree or disagree with that? And does that same principal apply to the Dow?

The intent? Don’t you see what they are doing? Trying to mislead people. Lies after lies or don’t give all the facts/spin the story to fit their message. Just like the middle tax break before the midterms that never happened. I’m sorry I’m going to call it out.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 30, 2019, 04:21:54 PM
I am not a housing expert and I always defer to domain specialists like usc , sgip, cv, eyephone, iho , Mety, etc that have far more micro level color than I do - I attempt to learn from all of the comments they post

What I have a good sense for based on my own knowledge, job experience and how asset prices move , is the macro data and “beta “ ... hence my calls re interest rates and equity markets , munis, and tresury bonds, junk bonds , which if you have been following me carefully ( and not blindly attacking like some of the maga crowd does) , you should have made decent returns

Now back on housing — I have been following the beta rally in home builders and coupled with the super dovish fed which will give another much needed support to the economy , is indicating something re housing market that should not be ignored.  My sense is builders are now heavily motivated to cut prices and move inventory which should lead to a volume pickup which will more than offset the price drop to make up better earnings growth

Again, just saying it like it is . I don’t do calendar year or point in time forecasts as that is not a practically useful exercise from a personal finance perspective.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on January 31, 2019, 01:19:45 PM
let's recap:

- trump calls out fed to stop raising rates

- fed raises rates anyway to spite trump

- market falls

- fed takes beating from everyone for stupid policy

- fed backs off on rates and aggressive outlook

- best january gains in decades

moral of the story?  trust your president, he knows what's best for you!

*cue forum experts poo pooing trump*

Quote
S&P 500 rises on strong earnings, closing out the best January since 1987

tocks rose to close out their best January in three decades as strong earnings and a Federal Reserve indicating it will pause rate hikes caused investors to rush back into the market following a vicious December sell-off.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/stock-market-investors-focus-on-fed-rate-decision.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/stock-market-investors-focus-on-fed-rate-decision.html)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 31, 2019, 01:20:24 PM
let's recap:

- trump calls out fed to stop raising rates

- fed raises rates anyway to spite trump

- market falls

- fed takes beating from everyone for stupid policy

- fed backs off on rates and aggressive outlook

- best january gains in decades

moral of the story?  trust your president, he knows what's best for you!

*cue forum experts poo pooing trump*

Quote
S&P 500 rises on strong earnings, closing out the best January since 1987

tocks rose to close out their best January in three decades as strong earnings and a Federal Reserve indicating it will pause rate hikes caused investors to rush back into the market following a vicious December sell-off.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/stock-market-investors-focus-on-fed-rate-decision.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/stock-market-investors-focus-on-fed-rate-decision.html)

Geez...I have seen better logic coming from a cultist.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on January 31, 2019, 01:26:15 PM
let's recap:

- trump calls out fed to stop raising rates

- fed raises rates anyway to spite trump

- market falls

- fed takes beating from everyone for stupid policy

- fed backs off on rates and aggressive outlook

- best january gains in decades

moral of the story?  trust your president, he knows what's best for you!

*cue forum experts poo pooing trump*

Quote
S&P 500 rises on strong earnings, closing out the best January since 1987

tocks rose to close out their best January in three decades as strong earnings and a Federal Reserve indicating it will pause rate hikes caused investors to rush back into the market following a vicious December sell-off.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/stock-market-investors-focus-on-fed-rate-decision.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/stock-market-investors-focus-on-fed-rate-decision.html)

Geez...I have seen better logic coming from a cultist.

right on cue  ;)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 31, 2019, 03:43:35 PM
Another rational and objective thread polluted by MAGA-dud comments

Is there anything constructive or new to offer or just “backsplaining” based on what happened and picking on individual people to make yourself feel useful ? 

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on January 31, 2019, 04:46:52 PM
Another rational and objective thread polluted by MAGA-dud comments

Is there anything constructive or new to offer or just “backsplaining” based on what happened and picking on individual people to make yourself feel useful ?

this whole thread is "backsplaining".  i'm just pointing out the obvious for your entertainment  :) fed-induced recession is real and we got a taste of their cavalier style last month.  no more rate increases and the economy will be off like a rocket this year.  right or wrong?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on January 31, 2019, 05:09:29 PM
Another rational and objective thread polluted by MAGA-dud comments

Is there anything constructive or new to offer or just “backsplaining” based on what happened and picking on individual people to make yourself feel useful ?

this whole thread is "backsplaining".  i'm just pointing out the obvious for your entertainment  :) fed-induced recession is real and we got a taste of their cavalier style last month.  no more rate increases and the economy will be off like a rocket this year.  right or wrong?

Quote
On Monday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its annual, beginning of the year update to its economic and budgetary projections, and there’s not much in the report to comfort the Trump administration, or anyone else. CBO projects the economy will continue growing, but at a relatively slow pace, and the federal government will pile up debt at a rate that is well beyond the historical norm.

CBO expects the U.S. economy will grow, in real terms, at a rate of 2.3 percent in calendar year 2019, which would be down from the 3.1 percent growth rate of 2018. More troubling for the administration, CBO expects growth to slow down in 2020 to just 1.7 percent and to 1.6 percent in 2021, and to stay below 2 percent annually throughout the next decade. Between 1991 and 2008, the U.S. economy grew at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent. As growth slows, CBO expects the unemployment rate to rise, from 3.8 percent in 2018 to 4.4 percent in 2021.

Yup...Fed induced.

https://www.aei.org/publication/cbo-projects-modest-growth-and-wide-deficits/
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on January 31, 2019, 06:00:07 PM
Another rational and objective thread polluted by MAGA-dud comments

Is there anything constructive or new to offer or just “backsplaining” based on what happened and picking on individual people to make yourself feel useful ?

this whole thread is "backsplaining".  i'm just pointing out the obvious for your entertainment  :) fed-induced recession is real and we got a taste of their cavalier style last month.  no more rate increases and the economy will be off like a rocket this year.  right or wrong?

Yeah , I guess you are one of those ppl who had blinders on and missed my call to sell equities in August and then buy them again on Christmas Eve . Wearing that MAGA hat too tight  can sometimes make vision difficult .
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on February 01, 2019, 07:47:40 AM
What are you his Rudy? Because your not doing a good job defending him. In essence your continuing the conversation. I don’t mind actually.

Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative.

But the particular narrative here was how low mortgage rates are. Then someone said it could be affected by politics and SGIP chimed in that rates could be affected by anything.

I don't see how that was changing the narrative. Maybe it challenged what you feel politically but that's a separate issue.

Quote
Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Sure, but that happened there. Again, the focus of his post here was the whim of rates, not really politics. Maybe he used a bad example to illustrate what he was saying but you keep digressing from the intent (at least what I think the intent was).

Quote
Of course we can talk about the Dow.

Please.

Interesting words you are using... "defending"... does that mean you are "attacking"?

All I am saying is that to me, his post was about the whim of rates, sure he may have referenced something political but that he was just continuing on the theme that fortune11 had posted right before:

Fed speeches getting more dovish I will see what Powell says today

Maybe this is the wrong thread for this — but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence — you need to also be thinking ...

Think of this scenario — fed turns dovish on rates — trump calls ceasefire w Chiina — pboc keeps cutting rates — semi stocks stabilize — s&p hits 15 percents from here ...

Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does — you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself

Again, maybe because you guys don't align politically shouldn't detract from the point of his post that rate fluctuation is very hard to predict based on politics.

Do you agree or disagree with that? And does that same principal apply to the Dow?

The intent? Don’t you see what they are doing? Trying to mislead people. Lies after lies or don’t give all the facts/spin the story to fit their message. Just like the middle tax break before the midterms that never happened. I’m sorry I’m going to call it out.


Again, I don't think that was the focal point of SGIP's post.

Let's get back to it... do you think interest rates... or the Dow... are strongly tied to morning announcements from the government? I do think there is some influence but it's usually short term and there are other factors that are more influential.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on February 01, 2019, 10:43:33 PM
I am not a housing expert and I always defer to domain specialists like usc , sgip, cv, eyephone, iho , Mety, etc that have far more micro level color than I do - I attempt to learn from all of the comments they post

What I have a good sense for based on my own knowledge, job experience and how asset prices move , is the macro data and “beta “ ... hence my calls re interest rates and equity markets , munis, and tresury bonds, junk bonds , which if you have been following me carefully ( and not blindly attacking like some of the maga crowd does) , you should have made decent returns

Now back on housing — I have been following the beta rally in home builders and coupled with the super dovish fed which will give another much needed support to the economy , is indicating something re housing market that should not be ignored.  My sense is builders are now heavily motivated to cut prices and move inventory which should lead to a volume pickup which will more than offset the price drop to make up better earnings growth

Again, just saying it like it is . I don’t do calendar year or point in time forecasts as that is not a practically useful exercise from a personal finance perspective.

I'll provide a little info from what I've personally experienced.  In Sept-Nov, I had 5 buyers go "on hold" because rates were getting towards 5% and prices were falling.  Within the past few weeks, 4 of those buyers re-activated their home search and I got 2 of them into escrow.  When I asked them why they are back in the home search they said that the combo of lower rates and prices made them feel a lot more comfy.  That being said, we made initial offers of 5-8% below the listing price and negotiated higher.  Also, a few of the home builders told me that they've seen sales pick up a bit since the past few weeks too also because of the lower rates.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on February 04, 2019, 10:20:04 AM
The recent posts timeline is again getting polluted w maga nonsense

I am unlikely to post as frequently here, but a few last tips -- I am booking some profits in SPY this week and next as targets are hit .  Don't chase this rally beyond 2750 ... keep the fixed income stuff though (junk bonds, muni etc). 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fortune11 on March 23, 2019, 06:31:18 AM
Posting this for many of you who care, haters can ignore —

Remember my call not to chase this equity rally much beyond 2750.   And to stay in fixed income , especially intermediate treasuries (when they were 3 percent plus) high yield / junk and muni bonds.

The fixed income trade should have worked out fantastically well in terms of total return and income for those who did

But now while you can keep your munis etc , maybe time to lighten up on treasuries and move into 1y breakable CDs or a high yielding savings act

Only reason to hold treasuries now would be if recession probability is more than 50 percent - make your own judgement call there . Remember market is NOW pricing in Fed rate cuts !!!

As to stock indices, I was already out a little above 2750 , now I am waiting to see further evidence of a bottom in earnings before I decide to get back in . Until then , not touching the indices.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 10:24:29 AM
What happened to stamps.com? It’s down like $45 in one day. (I just read that’s ending it’s exclusive discount deal with USPS)

I don’t own it just curious.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 12:19:27 PM
Will there be a deal or no deal regrding the tariffs?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 09, 2019, 02:21:45 PM
Will there be a deal or no deal regrding the tariffs?

If your company or clients have inventory on the water from China. Get ready for a big impact!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 10, 2019, 09:30:34 AM
You know the market is irrational when it believes Trump/Steven Munchin

Quote
Stocks pared some of the losses after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said China trade talks are done for the day, but they were "constructive." The Dow was down 358 points at its intraday low.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/10/us-markets-as-higher-tariffs-on-chinese-goods-kick-in.html
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on May 10, 2019, 09:52:00 AM
This another chance to buy. The world was coming to end in q418, markets were down about 20%, four/five months later back at all time highs. Just keep buying S&P etfs and you will make easy money. 

Fed will never raise rates again. Mortgage rates will stay in current range for a long time, may even go down. If things start to get bleak with economic numbers fed may actually cut rates and markets will just go up.

The market is the only game in town if you want to make more than 2-3%.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: zubs on May 10, 2019, 09:56:38 AM
Dude! Etrade savings account is now 2.1% beating out capital one moneymarket 360 by 0.1%!!!
I'm gone be rich!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 10, 2019, 10:02:13 AM
Will there be a deal or no deal regrding the tariffs?

If your company or clients have inventory on the water from China. Get ready for a big impact!

In transit is purposely exempt giving about 2 more weeks of negotiation time.  They'll close a deal.

US to exempt Chinese goods in transit from potential tariff increase


   Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
   https://www.ft.com/content/80e74e22-71de-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5

   A US trade official said that the higher tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods would apply to products exported from the Asian nation starting on Friday and not goods that are already in transit.

The clarification from the Trump administration on Wednesday offers US and Chinese negotiators a window of two to four extra weeks to reach a deal before the bulk of the pain from the higher tariffs directly hits US consumers and businesses, based on shipping times between the countries.

https://www.ft.com/content/80e74e22-71de-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5 (https://www.ft.com/content/80e74e22-71de-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 10, 2019, 10:15:13 AM
Will there be a deal or no deal regrding the tariffs?

If your company or clients have inventory on the water from China. Get ready for a big impact!

In transit is purposely exempt giving about 2 more weeks of negotiation time.  They'll close a deal.

US to exempt Chinese goods in transit from potential tariff increase


   Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
   https://www.ft.com/content/80e74e22-71de-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5

   A US trade official said that the higher tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods would apply to products exported from the Asian nation starting on Friday and not goods that are already in transit.

The clarification from the Trump administration on Wednesday offers US and Chinese negotiators a window of two to four extra weeks to reach a deal before the bulk of the pain from the higher tariffs directly hits US consumers and businesses, based on shipping times between the countries.

https://www.ft.com/content/80e74e22-71de-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5 (https://www.ft.com/content/80e74e22-71de-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5)

Isn't that was said when the tariffs got started?  And instability and uncertainty are great for business planning.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 10, 2019, 10:21:57 AM
Poker...not tennis. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 10, 2019, 10:23:56 AM
Poker...not tennis.

Yeah...how's that poker game with North Korea going?

How about those great trade deals with Canada and Mexico? 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 10, 2019, 10:32:26 AM
bluff, raise, bluff...call.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: zubs on May 10, 2019, 10:48:00 AM
The stuff on the water is exempt from 25%, however, the stuff that leaves today from China is at 25%.  So an ocean bill of lading of 05.10.2019 and onward would get at 25%?

So you think when it finally reaches Longbeach an agreement would be reached and the 25% would be lifted?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 10, 2019, 10:58:13 AM
Thats the bluff...sets a date and applies pressure.  We'll see what the river card brings.


https://youtu.be/5h5cwCOWCOg (https://youtu.be/5h5cwCOWCOg)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 10, 2019, 11:11:32 AM
We love the drama. Let it ride!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 10, 2019, 11:12:12 AM
We love the drama. Let it ride!

And then Trump realizes that he has been playing blackjack all along!  HIT ON 48!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 10, 2019, 11:15:01 AM
We love the drama. Let it ride!

And then Trump realizes that he has been playing blackjack all along!  HIT ON 48!

Tell him to share the beautiful letter that he received from President  Xi.  (Drama at its best!)

People dont get tarriffs in general. So I say let it ride.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: zubs on May 10, 2019, 11:34:10 AM
I'm sure with all these tariffs on China, they have a motive to want him out of office in 2020.
I wonder if a democratic president would keep these tariffs going.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 10, 2019, 11:39:32 AM
Biden would cave, not sure of Bernie and the others.  Like him or not, Trumps right on this issue. The Chinese have been crapping on us for years. Someone had to stand up.  You can argue method but his position is correct.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 10, 2019, 11:53:20 AM
Biden would cave, not sure of Bernie and the others.  Like him or not, Trumps right on this issue. The Chinese have been crapping on us for years. Someone had to stand up.  You can argue method but his position is correct.

We are still waiting for him to take them to Mc Donald’s like he said on the campaign trail. Instead he has nice expensive state dinners. (The opposite of what he said)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 10, 2019, 11:54:07 AM
Biden would cave, not sure of Bernie and the others.  Like him or not, Trumps right on this issue. The Chinese have been crapping on us for years. Someone had to stand up.  You can argue method but his position is correct.

No one disagrees about position...the methods are important.  Trump basically distant all of US economic allies by slapping tariffs on them and then gets into a trade war with a county run by a oligarchy who controls all levers of economy and politics and has no term limits.

It's pure stupidity.

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 10, 2019, 12:00:59 PM
It’s a joke like closing the southern border. The financial impact was big that’s why he backed down.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 10, 2019, 12:01:52 PM
Those "economic allies" were crapping on us too.  Tough love will restore order, gotta let it play out. No more buy ins...


 (https://youtu.be/H9fyOFefirQ)[/url]
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: jajji on May 10, 2019, 12:13:16 PM
Trump to his cronies "hey guys want to make another couple hundred mil this week? Watch this heh heh heh"

*tariff tweet*

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 10, 2019, 12:13:21 PM
Those "economic allies" were crapping on us too.  Tough love will restore order, gotta let it play out. No more buy ins...


Thanks George Custer.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 10, 2019, 12:20:41 PM
The markets get it.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 10, 2019, 12:31:59 PM
The markets get it.

Trump's new China tariffs will kill retail industry: American Apparel and Footwear Assn. CEO

“41 percent of all apparel, 72 percent of all footwear, 84 percent of all accessories come into China. We can't escape it, and with the imminent rise from 10 to 25 percent, our members have goods on the water. They're going to get hammered,” said.

The increased tariff would affect nearly 6,000 products and parts, including such items as furniture, clothing, electronics, handbags, luggage, hardware, shampoo, perfume, dishes, bedsheets, bicycles, meat and cereal. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Opens a New Window.  is predicting new-vehicle prices could rise as parts from China become more expensive.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trumps-new-china-tariffs-will-kill-retail-industry-american-apparel-and-footwear-assn-ceo

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 13, 2019, 08:42:33 AM
Ahh, gotta love TRUMP for the great tarriffs and what its doing to the stock market. Let's see how low it will go this time.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: zubs on May 13, 2019, 08:57:36 AM
Importers have been scrambling to change factories from China to anywhere else for the past half year since 10% went into affect around SEP of 2018.  This action will now accelerate.  The tariff weakens China and strengthens the surrounding countries as Vietnam and the Philippines and other low cost mfg countries enjoy the windfall trump has given them.  Also Mexico.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Irvinecommuter on May 14, 2019, 01:03:00 PM
Yeah...China is not backing out of this one

Quote
One editorial published by the Xinhua News Agency and the People’s Daily accused the U.S. of “greed and arrogance,” explaining this is a “people’s war” — a phrase introduced by Mao Zedong to describe China’s fight the Japanese.

The piece didn’t call out Trump by name but did say “the trade war in the United States is strongly advocated by one person and one team.”

The rhetoric has also been amplified across state TV, where CCTV anchor Kang Hui, according to CNN, said China would “fight for a new world,” and that “there’s nothing we haven’t seen before.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bully-us-wishful-thinking-china-preps-for-peoples-war-as-trend-tensions-mount-2019-05-14
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 14, 2019, 02:04:58 PM
It would be awesome if Mexico became a major manufacturing country... but then Trump will wall them off. :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on May 14, 2019, 02:20:30 PM
It would be awesome if Mexico became a major manufacturing country... but then Trump will wall them off. :)

Wall not tall enough, they just throw, jump and pump over. Problem solved.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on May 14, 2019, 02:30:36 PM
Then the iPhone XI phone to be more shock resistant.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 14, 2019, 03:43:24 PM
It would be awesome if Mexico became a major manufacturing country... but then Trump will wall them off. :)

Wall not tall enough, they just throw, jump and pump over. Problem solved.

Professional wall climbers?

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/378218-trump-likens-those-crossing-border-to-professional-mountain-climbers

It’s a joke I tell you! In the mean time schools are not safe. (look at the news)
A really big drug problem across America. (Opioids, prescription drugs)

Fix America!! Don’t get me started.

God Bless Merica!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: qwerty on May 16, 2019, 10:34:23 AM
This another chance to buy. The world was coming to end in q418, markets were down about 20%, four/five months later back at all time highs. Just keep buying S&P etfs and you will make easy money. 

Fed will never raise rates again. Mortgage rates will stay in current range for a long time, may even go down. If things start to get bleak with economic numbers fed may actually cut rates and markets will just go up.

The market is the only game in town if you want to make more than 2-3%.

I kept averaging down on my levered etf purchases as the Dow hit 25,300. It was a very nice gamble :-)

I think we will hit all time highs again this year so still time to get in on this dip. About half way back from where we were at a couple weeks ago.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 21, 2019, 08:30:14 AM
It's even better than you think...

The Booming Jobs Market Mystifies the Press, When They Notice It At All

These are prosperous times in America.”

If that sounds like pro-Trump propaganda, that’s because it’s rarely uttered by anyone who isn’t already a supporter of the current president.

But that’s how National Public Radio, to its credit, began a story about the incredible jobs boom underway right now in a segment called “America Is In Full Employment, So Why Aren’t We Celebrating?”

“Why doesn’t today’s full employment come with effervescence?” reporters Pallavi Gogoi and Scott Horsley ask.

But while the reporters do a good job of describing the widespread benefits of the current economy, they also manage, in asking that question, to expose the extreme bias at work among the overwhelming majority of their colleagues in the press.

“Unemployment has reached a nearly 50-year low. The jobless rate for Hispanics has never been lower; the past two years have been the best job market ever for African Americans. Wages are starting to rise — and, more significantly, for the lowest-paid workers. That may not endure, but it’s a reversal of the long-term trend where the most highly paid workers were also the best rewarded. The job market today is so hot that groups that were sort of on the margins also are finding opportunities — including people with disabilities or a prison record.”

Did you get all that? Wages are rising for the lowest-paid workers. Minority groups have never had it so good. People at the margins are getting pulled back into the labor market.

So why, they ask, is the country “not quite exuding the self-possession or excitement that should accompany these exceptional times.”

Of course, Trump is often his own worst enemy when it comes to championing the growth on his watch. Then again, when he does boast about the economy, the press either ignore it entirely, or pick at nits.

If you want to fully understand incredible bias at work, try to imagine how today’s economy would be covered under a Democrat. It would be a constant media celebration. Proof that Democratic policies work to lift all boats. Etc.

The only reason there is no joy in the journalist equivalent of Mudville today is because Trump didn’t strike out.


https://issuesinsights.com/2019/05/20/the-booming-jobs-market-mystifies-the-press-when-they-notice-it-at-all/ (https://issuesinsights.com/2019/05/20/the-booming-jobs-market-mystifies-the-press-when-they-notice-it-at-all/)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 21, 2019, 08:59:15 AM
The booming Uber and LYft drivers.
In the mean time, drug problem out of control and schools are not the best. I think it may have got worst. (You can thank Betsy the Sec of Education for that)

Let it ride!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 21, 2019, 09:09:12 AM
See, I told you this line would get resurrected.

"The old arguments of previous cycles like "sure, the economy is doing well...but not for everyone, people are being left behind." are back."
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 21, 2019, 09:11:26 AM
You told us? Maybe you did maybe you didn’t. We just remember your target stock recommendation post. After that it has been downhill.

See, I told you this line would get resurrected.

"The old arguments of previous cycles like "sure, the economy is doing well...but not for everyone, people are being left behind." are back."
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 21, 2019, 09:24:54 AM
Yah, that Target call worked out great.  Said that in the other Dow thread earlier this month...

This is where tone and tenure makes a difference.  Presidents inherit the economy they inherit.  If there was some magical button in the back of the Oval office that creates growth then every president would be pushing it every day.  Where a President has influence is in Tax and regulatory policy.  He sets the tone.  No, denying it, Obama had job growth and expansion but by raising taxes and pushing massive regulation he muted the reaction from business.  He got expansion but it always seemed anemic and agonizingly slow (the new normal).  Obama was injected in to all areas of the economy. Energy, manufacturing, banking and services.  In essence he poured water on his expansion.  This guy is different in his style.  He is pouring Gas on the fire through lower taxes and slashing regulation.  The tone to business is different and they are not shy about it.  You can argue the micro numbers all you want but that little change makes a difference in strategic decision making.  Now, will there be a recession? Of course, but it will be more like ones we have had in the past. Sharp and fairly short.  You cannot argue we are not in more "normal" cycles now.  Look at what they are comparing these numbers to. Numbers not seen since the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's....not 2000's.  The old arguments of previous cycles like "sure, the economy is doing well...but not for everyone, people are being left behind." are back. This is more like the Reagan expansion, watch, I guarantee you that we will see the "Morning in America" commercial again.



https://youtu.be/EU-IBF8nwSY (https://youtu.be/EU-IBF8nwSY)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 21, 2019, 09:27:32 AM
Naw I think you mentioned Target like last year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 21, 2019, 09:28:54 AM
So on CNBC they were talking about Homr Depot’s earnings. Guess what they talked about. The potential effect of the SALT deduction.  :D
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 21, 2019, 09:32:07 AM
In the stock picking thread at $55

I like Target at $55.  11PE. 4.3% dividend. Whats not to like?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 21, 2019, 09:38:08 AM
Yeah two years ago.

In the stock picking thread at $55

I like Target at $55.  11PE. 4.3% dividend. Whats not to like?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on May 21, 2019, 09:41:30 AM
Naw I think you mentioned Target like last year.

Not last year.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on May 21, 2019, 09:43:12 AM
Naw I think you mentioned Target like last year.

Not last year.

I guess you can say you lost your step.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: OCLuvr on August 05, 2019, 04:58:29 PM
Experts?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: aquabliss on August 05, 2019, 05:50:58 PM
Every time these dips happen I re-read this:
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2011/06/08/how-i-failed-my-daughter-and-a-simple-path-to-wealth/

Suggest everyone does the same.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Cares on August 06, 2019, 09:41:01 AM
Every time these dips happen I re-read this:
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2011/06/08/how-i-failed-my-daughter-and-a-simple-path-to-wealth/

Suggest everyone does the same.

I just bought some more VTI because of you.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: irvinehomeowner on August 06, 2019, 10:01:59 AM
I agree with all of that except for the owning a house part.

But he did say "maybe" so that works for me. Of all the debt you can have, a mortgage probably has the best benefits, and if your PITI is close to a rent payment, why not?

He also says he never had a car payment. That's going to be a tough one for us 99%ers who like nice cars but I guess leasing is like renting so no debt there. :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 06, 2019, 10:23:36 AM
A house is quite possibly the best investment there is, assuming you can buy in a high demand, growing area like SoCal.  It's inflation protected, pays a huge dividend by providing a place to live, and the tax benefits are insanely good.

On top of that you can be completely uneducated about investing and still benefit from this great investment.  Stocks and rentals take a certain amount of education and financial savvy that not everybody is cut out for.  The benefits and risks of owning a primary residence can be understood by just about anybody.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on August 06, 2019, 10:30:42 AM
A house is quite possibly the best investment there is, assuming you can buy in a high demand, growing area like SoCal.  It's inflation protected, pays a huge dividend by providing a place to live, and the tax benefits are insanely good.


Think twice before when reading his posts. Tax benefits are insanely good? (Come on man!) I almost threw up when I read your post.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 06, 2019, 10:33:53 AM
A house is quite possibly the best investment there is, assuming you can buy in a high demand, growing area like SoCal.  It's inflation protected, pays a huge dividend by providing a place to live, and the tax benefits are insanely good.


Think twice before when reading his posts. Tax benefits are insanely good? (Come on man!) I almost threw up when I read your post.

You must be very wealthy to vomit at the thought of sheltering 250k/500k in capital gains.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on August 06, 2019, 10:35:55 AM
A house is quite possibly the best investment there is, assuming you can buy in a high demand, growing area like SoCal.  It's inflation protected, pays a huge dividend by providing a place to live, and the tax benefits are insanely good.


Think twice before when reading his posts. Tax benefits are insanely good? (Come on man!) I almost threw up when I read your post.

You must be very wealthy to vomit at the thought of sheltering 250k/500k in capital gains.

Bunch of puke. Basically there is no tax benefit owning a house. Trump took it away!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Liar Loan on August 06, 2019, 10:41:09 AM
A house is quite possibly the best investment there is, assuming you can buy in a high demand, growing area like SoCal.  It's inflation protected, pays a huge dividend by providing a place to live, and the tax benefits are insanely good.


Think twice before when reading his posts. Tax benefits are insanely good? (Come on man!) I almost threw up when I read your post.

You must be very wealthy to vomit at the thought of sheltering 250k/500k in capital gains.

Bunch of puke. Basically there is no tax benefit owning a house. Trump took it away!

Wonderful...  I'll let the other readers decide whose posts to "think twice before reading".
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on August 06, 2019, 10:43:08 AM
It’s a known fact fact Trumps tax law reduced the real estate tax deductions.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on August 06, 2019, 10:49:00 AM
Then your tax guy sucks.  I got every penny of my interest write off.  Interest write off on a loan under $500k.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on August 06, 2019, 10:50:44 AM
Then your tax guy sucks.  I got every penny of my interest write off.  Interest write off on a loan under $500k.

In addition, the property tax and state taxes. (Which capped at 10k)

Regarding your sucking comment. I’m sure he doesn’t suck like you do.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on August 06, 2019, 10:55:49 AM
Got a great refund, paid marginally less. Made my taxes great again!
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on August 06, 2019, 10:58:16 AM
Got a great refund, paid marginally less. Made my taxes great again!

Situations may vary. (Low income earner or property tax was low due to prop 13. what can I say?)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on August 06, 2019, 11:00:44 AM
#winning
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on August 06, 2019, 11:01:23 AM
#winning

That is why there are no corporate sponsors on this forum.
The admin let’s this nonsense happen.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on August 12, 2019, 03:09:03 PM
So the DOW been dropping a good bit.

I still like for the market to drop a bit more.

Like at least a couple thousands point from here.

With the tariffs is now at full throttles, it would need another major leg of F’up to see that kind of drop/swing.

What would it be?

I can taste it, just not sure when I will be able to feast and dive in.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: zubs on August 12, 2019, 03:30:35 PM
When nine one rolls around, and trump is super serious about his 10% on the next 300 billion...
cause it hasn't happened yet
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on August 12, 2019, 03:49:53 PM
So the DOW been dropping a good bit.

I still like for the market to drop a bit more.

Like at least a couple thousands point from here.

With the tariffs is now at full throttles, it would need another major leg of F’up to see that kind of drop/swing.

What would it be?

I can taste it, just not sure when I will be able to feast and dive in.

I have my 201k at like ultra conservative.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: zubs on August 13, 2019, 09:21:16 AM
So regarding todays announcement that trump is delaying his 9/01 10% tariff.....how much money did trump insiders make this time?
I was promised a recession....is today the last day to get out before the drop?


You know how people were talking about the FED having no ammunition the next time a recession hits because interest rates were already at 0%?....well perhaps Trump is loading up his ammunition with these tariffs....if wall street takes a shit, he just relaxes tariffs on China to bring it back up.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on August 13, 2019, 09:36:02 AM
Traders paradise!!  Easy pickns,
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on August 13, 2019, 10:45:02 AM
You know how people were talking about the FED having no ammunition the next time a recession hits because interest rates were already at 0%?....well perhaps Trump is loading up his ammunition with these tariffs....if wall street takes a shit, he just relaxes tariffs on China to bring it back up.

and yet we've had people on this board screaming from the rooftops that presidents don't affect the markets  :)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on August 14, 2019, 07:28:49 PM
I love the smell of panic in the morning... smells like.... victory!


https://youtu.be/vRp7tYWnJJs (https://youtu.be/vRp7tYWnJJs)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on August 14, 2019, 08:07:50 PM
It’s just a world wide panic nothing much

I love the smell of panic in the morning... smells like.... victory!


https://youtu.be/vRp7tYWnJJs (https://youtu.be/vRp7tYWnJJs)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on August 21, 2019, 04:50:32 PM
This is a convo better suited for this thread and not the stock picking thread...

It looks like the yield curve briefly inverts with the 2 year treasuries which topped the 10 year rate.

#notLookingGood

you seem to be following what's going on around the world, so you should know that the european economy is in the tank and asia is seeing a lot of unrest.  which means the united states is still by far the safest place to put your money, thus with everyone taking their money to buy 10 year treasuries the price will go down.  calls for recession in the us are just the latest outrage that the media can play to get more clicks and eyeballs.

,,,,and 25 countries have 0 or negative interest rates right now. That tells you the world about the health of our economy vs the rest of the world.

The zero or negative interest rate regime continues

25 countries have zero or negative interest rates including Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Japan, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.

https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/all-time-low-interest-rates-july-2019 (https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/all-time-low-interest-rates-july-2019)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Kings on August 21, 2019, 05:56:03 PM
This is a convo better suited for this thread and not the stock picking thread...

It looks like the yield curve briefly inverts with the 2 year treasuries which topped the 10 year rate.

#notLookingGood

you seem to be following what's going on around the world, so you should know that the european economy is in the tank and asia is seeing a lot of unrest.  which means the united states is still by far the safest place to put your money, thus with everyone taking their money to buy 10 year treasuries the price will go down.  calls for recession in the us are just the latest outrage that the media can play to get more clicks and eyeballs.

,,,,and 25 countries have 0 or negative interest rates right now. That tells you the world about the health of our economy vs the rest of the world.

The zero or negative interest rate regime continues

25 countries have zero or negative interest rates including Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Japan, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.

https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/all-time-low-interest-rates-july-2019 (https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/all-time-low-interest-rates-july-2019)

a good indicator of the strength of the economy is how the pallet industry is doing.  i don't think we're heading for a recession.

Quote
Growth in US pallet demand will be supported by gains in domestic manufacturing and warehousing activity, and by the replacement of worn pallets with newer units.
US demand to rise 1.7% annually through 2019


The total number of pallets in use in the US is forecast to increase 1.9 percent annually through 2019 to 2.6 billion units, supported by gains in US manufacturing and warehousing activity. This will lead to an increase in pallet demand of 1.7 percent per year to 1.4 billion units. When manufacturing activity fell during the 2007-2009 economic recession, a significant number of pallets sat idle. Pallet users satisfied product handling requirements with existing stock and purchased new pallets only when absolutely necessary. This lowered the overall condition of the pallet stock, as pallets were not repaired or replaced at normal intervals. When the economy recovered, users began to replace these older pallets with new units, resulting in pallet demand gains of nearly nine percent per year between 2009 and 2014. In addition, the replacement of poor quality pallets with newer units resulted in a marginal increase in aggregate stock levels during this time.

https://www.freedoniagroup.com/industry-study/pallets-3314.htm (https://www.freedoniagroup.com/industry-study/pallets-3314.htm)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on August 21, 2019, 09:09:38 PM
I used to watch the shipping container and boxcar industry also. Same principle.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: morekaos on August 29, 2019, 07:15:20 AM
Traders paradise!!  Easy pickns,

Easy money.


https://youtu.be/zwSldPtbcF0 (https://youtu.be/zwSldPtbcF0)
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on September 20, 2021, 09:52:53 AM
The evergrande news hit. Buy the dip?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: sleepy5136 on September 20, 2021, 09:59:25 AM
The evergrande news hit. Buy the dip?
Lol I had a thread exactly about this and knew it was going to hit the US markets eventually. I bought a little.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on September 20, 2021, 11:34:32 AM
The evergrande news hit. Buy the dip?
Lol I had a thread exactly about this and knew it was going to hit the US markets eventually. I bought a little.

The company is more than a traditional RE company. They also own a soccer team, ev vehicles, theme park/malls, food and beverages. idk
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: sleepy5136 on September 20, 2021, 11:41:27 AM
The evergrande news hit. Buy the dip?
Lol I had a thread exactly about this and knew it was going to hit the US markets eventually. I bought a little.

The company is more than a traditional RE company. They also own a soccer team, ev vehicles, theme park/malls, food and beverages. idk
The only issue I see that can be a broader issue is if a more global entity in China is heavily exposed to them. I'd avoid chinese stocks for some time.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on September 20, 2021, 02:00:21 PM
We will see if their government will bail them out. Too big to fail?
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: fatduck on September 20, 2021, 03:48:47 PM
china will bail out the banks, not evergrande.  evergrande will end up getting sold off in pieces and the executives sent to reeducation camps probably.

the bigger problem for global markets is a fear that china will crack down further on debt-fueled growth.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: sleepy5136 on September 21, 2021, 08:13:41 PM
Seems like China isn't making it public on whether there will be a bailout. Hopefully you guys bought that 5% dip yesterday. Today was flat. I suspect there might be a dip again that can be bought for longer term investors. But who knows, I could be wrong.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on September 26, 2021, 06:26:07 PM
We will see if their government will bail them out. Too big to fail?

Evergrande missed the bond payment on dollar interest bond. The company has a 30 day grace period before the bond defaults.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-bondholders-limbo-over-debt-resolution-2021-09-24/

Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: sleepy5136 on September 30, 2021, 10:57:18 AM
That dip I mentioned couple days ago happened on Tues/Wed. Market is now holding onto 120 MA. Bought little more yesterday and today.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: eyephone on October 22, 2021, 12:24:27 PM
1. Social media stocks took a hit today. Due to the apple privacy policy may effect advertising on those platforms.
2. Donald Trump’s SPAC ticket symbol dwac flying high
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 22, 2021, 06:57:37 PM
1. Social media stocks took a hit today. Due to the apple privacy policy may effect advertising on those platforms.
2. Donald Trump’s SPAC ticket symbol dwac flying high
earnings this coming week is going to be very interesting.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: CalBears96 on October 22, 2021, 10:21:52 PM
1. Social media stocks took a hit today. Due to the apple privacy policy may effect advertising on those platforms.
2. Donald Trump’s SPAC ticket symbol dwac flying high
earnings this coming week is going to be very interesting.

Indeed.

FB on 10/25
AMD, GOOG, MSFT, TXN, TWTR on 10/26
AAPL, EBAY on 10/27
AMZN  on 10/28
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 29, 2021, 07:08:05 PM
Looks like all isn’t that bad from earnings. Seems like tech is the way to go. Supply shortages aren’t impacting them as much.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: USCTrojanCPA on October 29, 2021, 07:16:56 PM
Looks like all isn’t that bad from earnings. Seems like tech is the way to go. Supply shortages aren’t impacting them as much.

Yeah, MSFT and GOOG were the big winners. 
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: sleepy5136 on October 29, 2021, 07:24:45 PM
Looks like all isn’t that bad from earnings. Seems like tech is the way to go. Supply shortages aren’t impacting them as much.


Yeah, MSFT and GOOG were the big winners.
Yup. That late sept early Oct dip was the time to snatch them up. The constant narrative that inflation and higher rates will impact tech names negatively is a joke.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: CalBears96 on October 29, 2021, 09:23:08 PM
Yup, AVGO, AMD, and NVDA are also hitting all time high. And let's not forget about TSLA hitting 1T market cap.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Compressed-Village on October 30, 2021, 03:50:45 PM
Yes, the FED to the rescues. Let's the party continue.

Or maybe not.
Title: Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
Post by: Ready2Downsize on October 30, 2021, 06:56:09 PM
Yes, the FED to the rescues. Let's the party continue.

Or maybe not.

Foreign travelers can come back on the 8th. It will be interesting to see if FCB come back to bid up what's left of real estate here (or maybe other areas).
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