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Irvine Real Estate / Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Last post by Yousr on Today at 12:31:03 AM »
So a 10% increase in 2022 followed by a 7% decline in 2023 is what you consider agreeing with you  :)

Yes!  If the housing bust only lasts one year, then we'll all be sitting pretty in 2024.  Unfortunately, Orange County has had price declines in about 10 of the past 30 years - 1/3 of the time - because housing busts tend to last about 5-6 years in length. 

If you are saying this time will be different, well, then the burden is on you to explain why. :)


I think that even in the worst case scenario that this bust lasts for 5-6 years, just  by considering how much the run up in prices have been over the past couple of years it was completely worth it to buy anytime in 2018, 2019, 2020 and the larger part of 2021. The declines in Irvine are single digit historically and even in five years shouldn’t be more than 50%. Now considering the crazy inflation numbers and the obscenely low interest rates in the past. Borrowing a million bucks and holding doesn’t seem such a risky proposition to me specially for a first time buyer
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It was a beautiful house.. did this closed for asking price? Any similar listing coming on the market?

The buyer's offer is contingent upon selling their condo but is at full offering price along with a rent back until the end of October so if a non-contingent offer comes along at full price they will probably get the home.
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Irvine Real Estate / Re: New Apartments planned for Irvine Market Place
« Last post by iacrenter on Yesterday at 07:41:08 PM »
Say goodbye to 24HR Fitness, Barnes & Noble, and Hobby Lobby @ Irvine Market Place

Irvine Co. plans 2,500 new apartments to help Irvine meet state mandates

https://www.ocregister.com/2022/07/01/irvine-co-plans-2500-new-apartments-to-help-irvine-meet-state-mandates/

By JONATHAN LANSNER | jlansner@scng.com | Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: July 1, 2022 at 6:24 p.m. | UPDATED: July 1, 2022 at 7:11 p.m.
Giant landowner Irvine Co. says it’s willing to help Irvine meet its state housing mandate by building up to 2,500 apartments with rents more in line with local wages.

The city recently finished its housing plan, which includes adding roughly 20,000 new units by 2029. Irvine Co., the county’s largest landlord, is now starting the process to get city approval for three new apartment complexes at sites identified in the city’s homebuilding commitment.

Irvine Co. provided no costs or specifications for the apartments it’s proposing to build. However, any developer thinking about less-expensive units would likely target denser communities with smaller-sized units.

“These are mixed-use districts where residents will have immediate access to employment, shopping and transportation infrastructure,” Jeff Davis, an Irvine Co. senior vice president, told a city hearing in March. “Meeting economic and quality of life needs for recent graduates, young professionals and essential service workers — all within the community framework of a new mixed-use setting.”

Switch in plans
In the northern part of the city, Irvine Co. wants to put 1,400 units where it would demolish an underused slice of The Market Place retail center between Bryan Avenue and El Camino Real.

The site shares a parking lot with the center’s movie theater and is home to vacant space, short-term leases, poorly performing merchants and tenants willing to relocate.

The company has previously been willing to take bold actions with its retail space. At the Irvine Spectrum shopping center, it bought out the lease of retail anchor Macy’s in 2016, bulldozing the traditional department store and replacing it with smaller buildings in a collection of trendier merchants.

The developer’s other new rental site is further south in the city and a few blocks north of its Spectrum Center. Irvine Co. says it’s willing to construct up to 1,100 apartment units on two vacant plots at Gateway and Pacifica, both of which are zoned for commercial development such as offices.

Now you may be thinking “office is dead” and it’s a no-brainer switch for the land.

Don’t overlook Irvine Co.’s against-the-grain thinking, which has produced surprising results in two new office projects in Irvine in the pandemic era: Spectrum Terrace, off the 405, and Innovation Office Park, off the 5.

Long process
Please note these proposals won’t provide any quick cure for apartment hunters. If city approval is obtained next year, new units would not hit the market until 2025.

Construction requires city leaders to rezone a slice of a shopping center and land designated for offices. Most cities’ general plans are like living documents, adjusting over the years.

Altering development guidelines to meet current needs, however, often becomes political minefields. That debate can indefinitely stall developments that upset a slice of the voting public.

There’s little doubt local renters could use a break.

By one count, Orange County’s typical rent of $2,632 — up 18% in a year — was the second-highest among U.S. counties in June. ApartmentList.com ranked Orange County right behind Manhattan (New York County) at $2,833 and just ahead of Napa ($2,555), Santa Clara ($2,549) and Honolulu ($2,534).

But if Orange County wants to make any significant progress on creating less-than-expensive rental options, it means numerous folks on both sides of the apartment-creation machine have to rethink how they do business. In Irvine, the idea is to put rentals at new hot spots for apartments — more urban, busy locales at or near shopping and job centers.

Yes, these projects have a good shot at becoming reality as cities across the state feel the state’s housing push. Such mandates put cities across the state in a tough spot, though, often angering voters who think cities are already crowded while pitting needs for housing and sales tax revenue against each other.

Producing housing is tough when developable land is rare, and lightly used retail spaces becomes an ideal target for redevelopment. Yet fears of shrunken tax collections give certain city leaders an excuse to be skeptical of such conversions.

In Irvine, new apartments would mean a modest loss of sales taxes collected by the merchants currently occupying the Market Place shopping space. However, won’t adding 1,400 housing units be a sales boost to the remaining retailers next door?

Another reason these Irvine sites have a decent chance of making it through the development approval process is the neighbors.

Both sites are next to apartment dwellers and other commercial properties. Rental projects frequently run into roadblocks when nearby homeowners find all sorts of odd objections.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com


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It was a beautiful house.. did this closed for asking price? Any similar listing coming on the market?
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Irvine Real Estate / Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Last post by CalBears96 on Yesterday at 06:34:56 PM »
So you're still full of shit, Liar.
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Around Town / Re: COVID-19 Retail Openings and Closures
« Last post by The California Court Company on Yesterday at 06:34:41 PM »
No kidding. more than half pumps are empty even on a Friday evening

The Costco gas station at Tustin ranch is empty. No lines. I thought it was going to cause all sorts of traffic spilling onto el Camino real.

Driven by multiple times and never a line
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Economy & Finance / Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
« Last post by USCTrojanCPA on Yesterday at 05:30:53 PM »
We still have about 2x more job openings versus unemployed folks and we are well below a 4% unemployment rate.
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General Real Estate and Mortgage Talk / Re: Housing Analysis
« Last post by USCTrojanCPA on Yesterday at 05:27:51 PM »
Looks like bond rates are rolling over as the market is pricing in a higher % chance of inflation and 10-year bond rate is below 2.90%, which I believe we'll get by the end of the this year/early next year.  If that happens, bond rates will roll over and mortgage rates will follow.

Yes, 10-year treasury yield has been coming down from the high. Fixed mortgage rate will follow.

They already have, one of my lenders told me they are at 4% for a 30-year fixed jumbo loan today at 0pts.
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Irvine Real Estate / Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Last post by Liar Loan on Yesterday at 04:59:46 PM »
CalBears: You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023.

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

Is the pressure starting to get to you?

What pressure are you talking about? Are you dumb? Still can't admit you're wrong?

I don't know.  You recently claimed to have predicted a price decline in the second half of 2022, which I quickly showed wasn't true with your own post.  Now you're claiming I predicted something, which anybody can go back one page on this thread to see is not true.  It seems that something is eating away at you.
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Irvine Real Estate / Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Last post by CalBears96 on Yesterday at 04:47:09 PM »
CalBears: You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023.

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

Is the pressure starting to get to you?

What pressure are you talking about? Are you dumb? Still can't admit you're wrong?
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