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1
Economy & Finance / Re: Dow?
« Last post by sleepy5136 on Today at 01:30:21 AM »
And the FED have not even raise one itty, bitty, ounce of rate increase.

It’s a long way down from here, I am afraid.
Markets are currently pricing in the rate increases as we speak. By the time they actually raise rates, it will have already been priced in.

Thing is, even though it's already priced in, the market still acts shocked when it actually happens.
Markets react negatively on uncertainty. By the time the fed starts hiking, it will not be as volatile as now unless some other event occurs. The volatility has been crazy the past 1-2 months because Powell did a complete 180 by throwing away the transitory word and became hawkish. Unless another event comes up that was not already priced in, markets will be able to take a 0.25% increase without issues.

People need to chill and not act like the world is ending because a correction is happening. Healthy markets do not go up like a hockey stick. But I’m afraid the past 3 year returns has gotten people to think otherwise.
2
Economy & Finance / Re: Dow?
« Last post by daedalus on Yesterday at 11:35:24 PM »
I do recall after the dot com crash the fed cut rates aggressively, yet the broader indices kept tanking, and took 7 years to recover.   
3
Technology / Re: Renewable diesel (different from biodiesel)
« Last post by daedalus on Yesterday at 11:26:07 PM »
No answers here, but I'll know we're in a recession when gas is over $6/gallon and my coworkers start making "diesel" in their basements and garages again, like they did in '09.  "Why does Victor's car smell like french fries?"

Is there a cost benefit?  Mileage benefit?  Do OEMs have any issues with customers putting this stuff through their engines?  Personally, I'll start using it when Costco starts selling it.  I won't be going out of my way to save the planet when I'm getting 7-8 mpg, and I also won't be taking any extra risks with a $10k engine.
4
Economy & Finance / Re: Dow?
« Last post by CalBears96 on Yesterday at 11:24:59 PM »
And the FED have not even raise one itty, bitty, ounce of rate increase.

It’s a long way down from here, I am afraid.
Markets are currently pricing in the rate increases as we speak. By the time they actually raise rates, it will have already been priced in.

Thing is, even though it's already priced in, the market still acts shocked when it actually happens.
5
Economy & Finance / Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year?
« Last post by morekaos on Yesterday at 10:52:14 PM »
This is not advice but I have been nibbling at this stock here in the mid $50s

Some of my clients still have it…I traded through it but have owned it on and off over the years. I personally don’t own it right now but if it gets cheap enough I may take an interest.
6
63k in property taxes a year. WOW!

Where did you get that from. It's NOT 2% property tax including MR.

Base property tax is 1.05%. MR is about $13.5k, which could be increased by up to 2% every year.

So this coming one would be 3,300,000 * 0.0105 = $34,650 + $13,500 = $48,150.
I thought GP property taxes is 1.8-1.9%?

This is where you're confused about MR. MR is not a %. It's a dollar amount that could be increased by up to 2% each year.

Just like anywhere else, GP property tax is 1.05% + MR. It just came out to 1.7% for this particular house in this year's assessment. The next one, it's lower because the home price went up. It's going to be 1.46%.
Good to know. Glad that I don’t need to worry about MR ;)
7
Technology / Renewable diesel (different from biodiesel)
« Last post by irvinehomeowner on Yesterday at 10:50:50 PM »
So I've been researching cars/truck etc and I noticed that diesels still have better fuel economy than their gas counterparts and even rivals Hybrids (the only reason I'm considering ICE is because there are no large EVs out yet).

I was at the Arco in Quail Hill and noticed that their diesel was something called R99 Renewable Diesel or Biomass Diesel.

After executing some Google-Fu, it turns out that Renewable Diesel is very interesting. It's made only from renewable sources like plant and animal fat and totally compatible with current diesel engines. It actually runs cleaner and has lower emissions than regular diesel and even biodiesel (basically a mix of bio and petroleum diesel).

Currently, most stations that provide it run the R99 flavor which incorporates 1% petroleum diesel due to some red tape but there are some 100% Renewable Diesel stations.

Does anyone else have a diesel vehicle and has tried Renewable Diesel?
8
Economy & Finance / Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Last post by eyephone on Yesterday at 10:48:26 PM »
7%!!

That's like Irvine real estate dropping 5-10%!

Btfd?  :)
9
O.C. Real Estate / Re: The Meadows, Lake Forest by Toll Brothers
« Last post by sleepy5136 on Yesterday at 10:45:32 PM »
Is this normal? Toll Brothers has been increasing the price every 2 weeks even though there haven’t been any lots released. The Meadows was so attractively earlier because the relatively low price made up for the location but not so much anymore. They can’t continue increasing at this rate forever right especially since they have decided to slow down the phases?
With interest rates at 3.7% right now and the fed planning to hike 4 times this year, I think they are trying to maximize their price increases before the market potentially cools off. It takes one year to build the homes from getting in contract. Buyers have to underbuy if they plan to take a loan as they can’t lock in the interest rates so far out. The FOMO is happening as we speak. I suspect prices will have to stay flat or cool down once interest rates go to 4%…

With the way interest rates are moving, it’s quite risky to buy any new construction that takes 6+ months to build out. Who knows how high interest rates will go and with supply chain issues, one may easily end up needing to back out if they aren’t under buying. It will definitely be interesting to see how new home sales will perform in the next 6 months.
10
Economy & Finance / Re: Dow?
« Last post by sleepy5136 on Yesterday at 10:40:43 PM »
And the FED have not even raise one itty, bitty, ounce of rate increase.

It’s a long way down from here, I am afraid.
Markets are currently pricing in the rate increases as we speak. By the time they actually raise rates, it will have already been priced in.
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Recent Posts

Re: Dow? by sleepy5136
[Today at 01:30:21 AM]


Re: Dow? by daedalus
[Yesterday at 11:35:24 PM]


Re: Renewable diesel (different from biodiesel) by daedalus
[Yesterday at 11:26:07 PM]


Re: Dow? by CalBears96
[Yesterday at 11:24:59 PM]


Re: Is Netflix going to die in the next year? by morekaos
[Yesterday at 10:52:14 PM]

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