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Offline eyephone

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1080 on: March 26, 2020, 11:16:08 PM »
Last night EMS in New York took 6406 medical 911 calls, the highest volume ever, surpassing 9/11/01.

Our infrastructure is about to be put to the test like never before. Let's hope they hold the line.

So what could be a possible solution? We can point out millions things that are wrong in this country, but we need to have a better solution to change. You said we should learn from Taiwan and S. Korea. What should we learn from them to battle this virus more efficiently?

The easy answer is we should have learned from S Korea and Taiwan to test, suppress and contain early when it was still possible. We are the richest and most advanced country in the history of the world. We can afford to mass test everyone months ago, Just like we could afford this this 2 trillion bailout.

If you are asking what we should do from here on out, I%u2019m afraid the answers will be controversial and convoluted. We are in a lose lose situation. The trade-off between economic vitality and human life is stark.

I would do an emergency 4 months of UBI stimulus like Canada, institute a 3 months shelter in place (because I don%u2019t believe we are capable of a lockdown China style)

I know this will probably trigger a lot of conservatives, the individual freedom loving crowd, and the socialism bad crowd. But without it, we are faced with whether to sacrifice grandparents for economic vitality. If we can break out of the mold of thinking economic value and human value are the same thing,  we can do both. We are still the world%u2019s reserve currency and at such low cost to borrow, we can afford to.

Things that should be done: Tests, protective gear, social distancing, infrared technology, quarantine tracking (by cell phone, if that is too expensive have the quarantine people where an ankle bracelet), thermometers check before entering buildings such as hospitals, courts, business, etc.. (civil liberty issue? But I hear daycares/preschools are doing it now)

I do not understand the richest country in the world is so unprepared for this. Also, no action is being done to get more ventilators or medical equipment.

We need to get on the right track. Smell the coffee and wake up. Turn up the energy.


« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 11:38:32 PM by eyephone »

Offline Irvinehomeseeker

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1081 on: March 26, 2020, 11:38:40 PM »
Trump said the flu season  has been bad this year with over 50k deaths...what if the flu was not the regular flu but in fact the new virus? Since there was no testing ppl never knew?

Interesting.

Italy trying to find out if virus was in Italy in late 2019
https://in.yahoo.com/news/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-154410128.html

Offline Panda

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1082 on: March 27, 2020, 07:00:14 AM »
Bill Gates on his TED Talk in 2015 has already warned against the unpreparedness of our generation for a global epidemic. If you believe that "The truth shall set us free", then we should have embraced the truth, spoken in the past, before it become our reality today. The consequence of inaction to Bill's call in 2015 should bring us to a heightened awareness of other truths that is looming over us. Instead of denial or hammer down on truth seekers, we should be more vigilant and take responsibility for the truths laid bare before us.

What do you see before us, other than the medical and financial challenges? Should we be concerned over subjects like the over development of our mega cities? Because it is obvious that the higher the density of its population, the easier the spread of a dangerous disease. How about the result of social distancing and its unintended consequences, the psychological and emotional affects and its recover during and after this global pandemic?
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1083 on: March 27, 2020, 07:56:26 AM »
Last night EMS in New York took 6406 medical 911 calls, the highest volume ever, surpassing 9/11/01.

Our infrastructure is about to be put to the test like never before. Let's hope they hold the line.

So what could be a possible solution? We can point out millions things that are wrong in this country, but we need to have a better solution to change. You said we should learn from Taiwan and S. Korea. What should we learn from them to battle this virus more efficiently?

The easy answer is we should have learned from S Korea and Taiwan to test, suppress and contain early when it was still possible. We are the richest and most advanced country in the history of the world. We can afford to mass test everyone months ago, Just like we could afford this this 2 trillion bailout.

If you are asking what we should do from here on out, I%u2019m afraid the answers will be controversial and convoluted. We are in a lose lose situation. The trade-off between economic vitality and human life is stark.

I would do an emergency 4 months of UBI stimulus like Canada, institute a 3 months shelter in place (because I don%u2019t believe we are capable of a lockdown China style)

I know this will probably trigger a lot of conservatives, the individual freedom loving crowd, and the socialism bad crowd. But without it, we are faced with whether to sacrifice grandparents for economic vitality. If we can break out of the mold of thinking economic value and human value are the same thing,  we can do both. We are still the world%u2019s reserve currency and at such low cost to borrow, we can afford to.

Things that should be done: Tests, protective gear, social distancing, infrared technology, quarantine tracking (by cell phone, if that is too expensive have the quarantine people where an ankle bracelet), thermometers check before entering buildings such as hospitals, courts, business, etc.. (civil liberty issue? But I hear daycares/preschools are doing it now)

I do not understand the richest country in the world is so unprepared for this. Also, no action is being done to get more ventilators or medical equipment.

We need to get on the right track. Smell the coffee and wake up. Turn up the energy.

I agree but the problem is, and what I and others have said, US is a much different country/culture/government than others where those kind of measures will work. It's not just about being the richest, there are many other variables that money has difficulty overcoming.

Let's just take citizen tracking for example. Will you give up your privacy so that the government can track your location? Where your neighbors can pull up a city website and see that your home has 2 Covid positive cases? I don't even know how effective cell phone tracking is as you can leave the devices at home while you go out, people can just buy a burner, etc. We don't have the bandwidth to put an ankle tracker on the kind of numbers we are looking at (and that type of effort would be better put towards ventilators/masks).

To that subject, how do we speed up production of ventilators in days with the proper oversight so that these devices will function as necessary and not cause more issues?

Kenokoko's UBI proposal is interesting but is it feasible? How do you determine the amount for 4 months of stimulus? Will it be income capped like the current bill? What is an appropriate amount for basic needs like food/shelter/living needs? And if everyone is sheltered in, who will produce/deliver the basic necessities that everyone will need?

Let's use the Yang $1000/mo:

For 4 months that's $4k per person times 330m people... that's a staggering 1.32 Trillion dollars... what is the economic impact of printing that kind of money?

**Edit: Bad math. Trillion not quadrillion. See later post, real number for the UBI plan could be higher or lower.**

To be fair, I can't analyze other people's solutions without providing any of my own. To me, flattening the curve is probably the best way to slow the spread and reduce the impact on medical resources. Most of this has already been said but:

1. Heavily enforce social distancing and separation rules.

2. Allow businesses to re-open as long as they adhere to #1's guidelines. If any of you have been to any retail stores or restaurants, they have done things like using online methods to pay to minimize transfer contact between people.

3. Determine what businesses can operate under a "socially distant" model and allow them to operate just like essential businesses.

4. Increase testing and give certification to people who are either immune or have recovered so that they can work in businesses that require close contact. The criticism here is are these tests possible (I've heard there are experimental anti-bodies tests) and how do you make them widespread.

5. Ramp up production on PPE gear that's easy to manufacture and make it a requirement for usage outside of your home during a certain "social distancing" period of time. I can see resistance to this like groups who may have some religious/cultural/anti-vax reasons.

I'm just worried this is the new normal. We haven't been able to beat the flu and every year, despite flu shots, tons of people die annually and now with something like Covid, what's going to prevent future strains from evolving that are worse?

We need to step up medicine/science/technology to get ahead of these viruses so they can create vaccines, cures and treatments to reduce fatalities.

It's funny, because ever since the Internet came into prominence, we've been telling people to put down their devices and socialize... and now everyone has to go back to their screens to maintain their health.

And then there is the other aspect qwerty and others talk about, how does this sheltering affect our mental health, economy and society? Will I never be able to play a pick-up game of basketball unless we are all wearing hazmat suits or everyone has a certification bracelet saying they have been vaxxed or are immune to the Covid-20 or Covid-21 virus? NBA2k20 is not as satisfying as draining a 3 in Homer's face (where has that guy been?).

Edit: Typo on Yang's name
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 12:22:05 PM by irvinehomeowner »
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Offline lnc

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1084 on: March 27, 2020, 08:21:47 AM »

Currently, the US is 4 deaths per 1m, which is much lower than Italy (136/m) and Spain (93/m). For Panda, S Korea is also low at 3/m.

What is puzzling is China's numbers, 2/m, which makes you wonder the accuracy of their reporting. In fact, they have reported a 96% recovery rate.

The way you look at it, China actually has lower number of coronaviurs cases per population.  81k case for 1.4 billion people, about 0.057 cases per 1m.  In US, we got 85.9k cases per 327 million people, that's 0.26 cases per 1M.  Lower number of cases per population and you got lower fatality rate per population.  However, the fatality rate per coronavirus case still high in China.

USA now have 4.56 time more coronavirus cases per population than China.  :(


Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1085 on: March 27, 2020, 08:32:50 AM »

Currently, the US is 4 deaths per 1m, which is much lower than Italy (136/m) and Spain (93/m). For Panda, S Korea is also low at 3/m.

What is puzzling is China's numbers, 2/m, which makes you wonder the accuracy of their reporting. In fact, they have reported a 96% recovery rate.

The way you look at it, China actually has lower number of coronaviurs cases per population.  81k case for 1.4 billion people, about 0.057 cases per 1m.  In US, we got 85.9k cases per 327 million people, that's 0.26 cases per 1M. 

We has 4.56 time more coronavirus cases per population than China.

Yes, that's why I brought it up. I thought it was important to look at cases versus population to give us better perspective than just number of cases.

But at the same time, cases is an inaccurate number because it depend on testing.

That's why I focus on deaths, because that's really the concern here right? No one shuts down a business because of a cold or even counts how many people catch a cold because a cold rarely kills anyone (comparatively).

And fatalities from Covid is a more accurate way to compare the severity of the pandemic, how each area/country is able to deal with it etc.

I also mentioned China because with so many people, the numbers now being reported look suspicious. Do you think the China numbers are accurate?
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Offline eyephone

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1086 on: March 27, 2020, 08:58:09 AM »
How can you speed up production of medical equipment?
President Trump can sign the Defense Production Act.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/defense-production-act-coronavirus/index.html

#speeduptheprocessformedicalgear


Offline eyephone

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1087 on: March 27, 2020, 09:02:04 AM »
How can you speed up production of medical equipment?
President Trump can sign the Defense Production Act.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/defense-production-act-coronavirus/index.html

#speeduptheprocessformedicalgear

Also for toilet paper. What is he waiting for? Stop playing politics and do it.

Offline eyephone

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1088 on: March 27, 2020, 09:05:32 AM »
Breaking news: Boris Johnson the PM from UK test positive for the caronavirus

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/uk/uk-boris-johnson-coronavirus-gbr-intl/index.html
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 09:12:15 AM by eyephone »

Offline lnc

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1089 on: March 27, 2020, 09:44:06 AM »

Currently, the US is 4 deaths per 1m, which is much lower than Italy (136/m) and Spain (93/m). For Panda, S Korea is also low at 3/m.

What is puzzling is China's numbers, 2/m, which makes you wonder the accuracy of their reporting. In fact, they have reported a 96% recovery rate.

The way you look at it, China actually has lower number of coronaviurs cases per population.  81k case for 1.4 billion people, about 0.057 cases per 1m.  In US, we got 85.9k cases per 327 million people, that's 0.26 cases per 1M. 

We has 4.56 time more coronavirus cases per population than China.

Yes, that's why I brought it up. I thought it was important to look at cases versus population to give us better perspective than just number of cases.

But at the same time, cases is an inaccurate number because it depend on testing.

That's why I focus on deaths, because that's really the concern here right? No one shuts down a business because of a cold or even counts how many people catch a cold because a cold rarely kills anyone (comparatively).

And fatalities from Covid is a more accurate way to compare the severity of the pandemic, how each area/country is able to deal with it etc.

I also mentioned China because with so many people, the numbers now being reported look suspicious. Do you think the China numbers are accurate?


No, I do not think the China's number are accurate.  The number of case and number of death are indeed higher but not sure how much higher.

We undercount our cases here too but our death count are more accurate. 

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Offline Maserson

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1090 on: March 27, 2020, 10:01:53 AM »
Holy sh1t, Italy had 919 deaths in a day.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1091 on: March 27, 2020, 10:37:57 AM »
No, I do not think the China's number are accurate.  The number of case and number of death are indeed higher but not sure how much higher.

We undercount our cases here too but our death count are more accurate. 

Yes, that's why case count is an ambiguous number to use because we all know that number of infections can actually be factors higher than reported cases.

That's why my previous post outlines death count per population as a more important number.
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Online morekaos

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1092 on: March 27, 2020, 10:41:11 AM »
Now look at those Italian numbers...
80,585 active cases
8,215 deaths

We have more faster
93,151 active cases and...
1,382 deaths..

California
3,006 active case and...
65 deaths...

We are not Italy, and we won't be either.


https://www.bing.com/covid/local/california_unitedstates

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1093 on: March 27, 2020, 11:11:15 AM »
No, I do not think the China's number are accurate.  The number of case and number of death are indeed higher but not sure how much higher.

We undercount our cases here too but our death count are more accurate. 

Yes, that's why case count is an ambiguous number to use because we all know that number of infections can actually be factors higher than reported cases.

That's why my previous post outlines death count per population as a more important number.

Right there with you..death rate is the ONLY unambiguous arbiter.

Forget the cases numbers they are too hard to pin down accurately even with testing. Some will have it and be asymptotic and never be tested, some will false positive, some will have it and not test, the inaccuracies are massive. Watch the death rates...those are definitive, if you die from it they will know, that stat is solid. So far 85, if you sub out the 22 in one convalescent home you have 63 deaths so far (a bad week in Chicago).  If they don’t skyrocket we win. I don’t think they will.

Offline eyephone

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1094 on: March 27, 2020, 11:17:18 AM »
How can you speed up production of medical equipment?
President Trump can sign the Defense Production Act.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/defense-production-act-coronavirus/index.html

#speeduptheprocessformedicalgear

Iho tell Trump to take action.

 

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