Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 70990 times)

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1020 on: October 17, 2019, 11:38:08 AM »
That 5% loss was even greater when you factor in interest rates... that's like over 16% (meccos math)... and as I've been told on numerous occasions... 16+% could be hundreds of thousands of dollars!!!

I don't understand this statement, but if it makes you feel better we refi'd when rates dropped in 2014 to a 20 Yr Fixed and the payment was still equal to comparable rent, while shaving seven years off the remaining term.

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1021 on: October 18, 2019, 07:52:09 AM »
Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?"

At the very least, meccos has said Irvine is slowing down. Why else would would he recommend waiting to buy a home in Irvine?

Are you sure read this forum?

I love how you like telling half truths.  Yeah I said Irvine was slowing down because it did slow down.  Does anyone actually refute that Irvine slowed down? 
However, I do take objection to the statement that I was recommending people wait to buy a home.  You had issues with others telling people to wait.  Although I would agree with those "other" people, I specifically stated multiple times that people should not be listening to me to make such a big decision.  However with that said, if people did follow those "other" peoples advice, they saved a ton of money. 

So supporting people who say to wait isn't also recommending that people should wait. In most cases, you support somone's opinion because you share it. But I guess that's a good way to hedge.

But again, that's not my point. The topic at hand was if Irvine will feel more pain than other cities in this current "slowdown". Do you believe that? Why did you buy in Irvine (if you did)?

I supported Eyephone because he was spot on and yes I agreed with him.  In no way did I ever try to hedge my opinions, which unfortunately I cannot say the same for you.  If people read my earlier posts, I think everyone knew where I stood.  You on the other hand, were the one who constantly "suggested" this was seasonal, but when asked directly about it, wouldnt make a clear stand on the subject. 

What I find ironic is that you think that just because people share the same opinions, the actions of one can be placed on another?  Why am I surprised that such shallow thinking can come from you? 

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1022 on: October 18, 2019, 08:04:07 AM »

Isn't that what I've always said? It's situational and based on your own scenario. I can concede that depending on where you are at, you should wait, but I don't agree that you should always wait based on predictions of a slowdown, especially when no one knows the magnitude.

This current slowdown, just talking prices in Irvine, is less than 5%. When I mentioned that number last year, no one would say how much the slowdown was so I said that if it was within that margin... or even less than the historical seasonal drops of 15% the last 5+ years, what would waiting do?

Think about it, for the last 6 years, seasonal drops have been around 5%, why wasn't anyone saying wait back then? To me, buying now is not so different from buying in the trough the year before or the year before. And I said, it was actually better to wait a few years ago when there was bigger dip but no one was making such a big deal of slowdown back then.

And based on actual members who posted, there are about the same number of people who may have saved money and who didn't really care and were happy with purchasing last year, now or in the near future because they just want to own.

What's the verdict now? Continue to wait for the lag of prices to volume? Wait for the painful event LL is forecasting? Wait for NY real estate? Wait for a bottom that no one wants to predict a percentage for?

Just take your finances into account, figure out how long you can stay in a home and live your life.

Finally you concede that there was tremendous saving buying now vs one year ago. 

What you clearly still dont get is what is seasonal and YoY.  The price drops we have seen are YoY, not seasonal.  And no there is no such thing as 15% historical seasonal price drops.  Do you even believe what you write?  Even your best bed on this forum (compressed village) wont agree with you on this 15% historical season price drops because it is just so damn ridiculous. 

As for the question of whether one continues to wait or not.  Who knows at this point.  The point however is that the person who bought recently or now is waaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyy better off than the person who bought in summer of 2018.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1023 on: October 18, 2019, 08:06:11 AM »
Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?"

At the very least, meccos has said Irvine is slowing down. Why else would would he recommend waiting to buy a home in Irvine?

Are you sure read this forum?

I love how you like telling half truths.  Yeah I said Irvine was slowing down because it did slow down.  Does anyone actually refute that Irvine slowed down? 
However, I do take objection to the statement that I was recommending people wait to buy a home.  You had issues with others telling people to wait.  Although I would agree with those "other" people, I specifically stated multiple times that people should not be listening to me to make such a big decision.  However with that said, if people did follow those "other" peoples advice, they saved a ton of money. 

So supporting people who say to wait isn't also recommending that people should wait. In most cases, you support somone's opinion because you share it. But I guess that's a good way to hedge.

But again, that's not my point. The topic at hand was if Irvine will feel more pain than other cities in this current "slowdown". Do you believe that? Why did you buy in Irvine (if you did)?

I supported Eyephone because he was spot on and yes I agreed with him.  In no way did I ever try to hedge my opinions, which unfortunately I cannot say the same for you.  If people read my earlier posts, I think everyone knew where I stood.  You on the other hand, were the one who constantly "suggested" this was seasonal, but when asked directly about it, wouldnt make a clear stand on the subject. 

What I find ironic is that you think that just because people share the same opinions, the actions of one can be placed on another?  Why am I surprised that such shallow thinking can come from you?

Why am I not surprised by your continued insults?

You question my credibility where you have none here and your method of response says more about your unwillingness to participate in civil discourse.

I will stop conversing with you because you are never wrong. Whether it be some vs one, not thoroughly reading posts, or not understanding how to make a 15 year payment on a 30-year loan.

Do TI a favor and think more about trying to understand someone else’s perspective instead of just yelling “strawman!”   when you can’t form a reasonable counter.

Since you don’t think this forum is a good source for advice, why do you even post here? Good luck with following Steve Thomas around because I guess he’s never wrong either.
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Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1024 on: October 18, 2019, 08:06:58 AM »

I understand but using the logic of other posters here you should have waited. Not only were prices lower but interest rates were lower and you could have saved much more.

All you really did was prove my position, that you should buy when it's affordable for you because you can't really predict where prices or interest rates are going with absolute certainty. That 5% loss was even greater when you factor in interest rates... that's like over 16% (meccos math)... and as I've been told on numerous occasions... 16+% could be hundreds of thousands of dollars!!!


How did we prove your position?  LOL  youre funny. 
BTW 5% price decrease and 1% drop in rates equals at 16% affordability difference.  Does that still confuse you? 

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1025 on: October 18, 2019, 08:10:04 AM »
Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?"

At the very least, meccos has said Irvine is slowing down. Why else would would he recommend waiting to buy a home in Irvine?

Are you sure read this forum?

I love how you like telling half truths.  Yeah I said Irvine was slowing down because it did slow down.  Does anyone actually refute that Irvine slowed down? 
However, I do take objection to the statement that I was recommending people wait to buy a home.  You had issues with others telling people to wait.  Although I would agree with those "other" people, I specifically stated multiple times that people should not be listening to me to make such a big decision.  However with that said, if people did follow those "other" peoples advice, they saved a ton of money. 

So supporting people who say to wait isn't also recommending that people should wait. In most cases, you support somone's opinion because you share it. But I guess that's a good way to hedge.

But again, that's not my point. The topic at hand was if Irvine will feel more pain than other cities in this current "slowdown". Do you believe that? Why did you buy in Irvine (if you did)?

I supported Eyephone because he was spot on and yes I agreed with him.  In no way did I ever try to hedge my opinions, which unfortunately I cannot say the same for you.  If people read my earlier posts, I think everyone knew where I stood.  You on the other hand, were the one who constantly "suggested" this was seasonal, but when asked directly about it, wouldnt make a clear stand on the subject. 

What I find ironic is that you think that just because people share the same opinions, the actions of one can be placed on another?  Why am I surprised that such shallow thinking can come from you?

Why am I not surprised by your continued insults?

You question my credibility where you have none here and your method of response says more about your unwillingness to participate in civil discourse.

I will stop conversing with you because you are never wrong. Whether it be some vs one, not thoroughly reading posts, or not understanding how to make a 15 year payment on a 30-year loan.

Do TI a favor and think more about trying to understand someone else’s perspective instead of just yelling “strawman!”   when you can’t form a reasonable counter.

Since you don’t think this forum is a good source for advice, why do you even post here? Good luck with following Steve Thomas around because I guess he’s never wrong either.

You know that crazy people dont know they are crazy, which is why they are crazy.  Im not calling you crazy, but I would just switch out "crazy" for "delusional" for you.  That my friend was an insult.  My previous comment was just my response to your insults. 

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1026 on: October 18, 2019, 08:29:26 AM »
So to everyone else except meccos, how did prices go back up after July/Aug 18? That's what I mean by seasonal/cyclical.

Did the slowdowners think prices were going to go back up or continue downwards? You can say it was interest rates but NO ONE predicted that.

And that's my point, no one can accurately predict where prices are going... even now, with such low volume (lowest in years as reported), prices are still high in Irvine relatively. You can just keep waiting for the "pain" but is anyone going to say how long? The predicted lag in December (when again, prices "seasonally" go down)? What happens if the rates go even lower? Or higher? Or Trump gets impeached? Or LeBron gets injured?

I also wonder why no one responds to other members who say that prices are actually going to go back up. I don't think that... I feel like flat or slightly down is probably more reasonable.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1027 on: October 18, 2019, 08:36:21 AM »
You know that crazy people dont know they are crazy, which is why they are crazy.  Im not calling you crazy, but I would just switch out "crazy" for "delusional" for you.  That my friend was an insult.  My previous comment was just my response to your insults. 

Haha. You may think you're the smartest one here but you need to step up your insult game. And I was not insulting you, those were facts.
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Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1028 on: October 18, 2019, 08:56:46 AM »
Oh yah!...the hate...I can feel it...

On this most beautiful Friday....FEED me!



Offline Goriot

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1029 on: November 09, 2019, 08:56:51 AM »
Pretty good price in QH with a Pool?

Bought in 2013 for $1.69 million.  Now on sale for $1.48 million.  Ouch

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/104-Retreat-92603/home/5902854

Offline woodburyowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1030 on: November 09, 2019, 09:01:50 AM »
Pretty good price in QH with a Pool?

Bought in 2013 for $1.69 million.  Now on sale for $1.48 million.  Ouch

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/104-Retreat-92603/home/5902854


QH prices are falling off a cliff.  This pocket listing destroyed the comps

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/116-Retreat-92603/home/5902876


Offline Goriot

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1031 on: November 09, 2019, 11:00:20 AM »
Pretty good price in QH with a Pool?

Bought in 2013 for $1.69 million.  Now on sale for $1.48 million.  Ouch

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/104-Retreat-92603/home/5902854


QH prices are falling off a cliff.  This pocket listing destroyed the comps

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/116-Retreat-92603/home/5902876

Oh wow.  Bought at $2mm in 2016 and unloaded for $1.6mm in 2019 which is lower then 2015 sold price of $1.7mm.  Large homes seem like bad investments unless you just want to enjoy living the lifestyle.

Offline OCLuvr

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1032 on: November 09, 2019, 12:20:11 PM »
Any specific reason why QH is falling so bad?

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1033 on: November 09, 2019, 11:13:10 PM »
Any specific reason why QH is falling so bad?

Slowdown. :)
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Offline OCLuvr

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1034 on: November 10, 2019, 05:59:39 AM »
But why only QH so bad? I don’t think any other neighborhood is falling so bad.

 

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