Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 34049 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #645 on: June 06, 2019, 12:08:53 PM »
Again, to get back on topic:

I think this is a question that should be pretty clear to everyone:

If in December, prices drop like they *seasonally* do (surprise!), what percentage difference from the previous year would we consider this "slowdown" non-seasonal?


Other than the volume, the pricing up and down seems "seasonal" to me.
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Offline WTTCHMN

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #646 on: June 14, 2019, 04:15:55 PM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #647 on: June 14, 2019, 05:29:28 PM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

Sales volume is down but prices are still high. Must be that lag that’s coming in December.
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Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #648 on: June 14, 2019, 06:03:53 PM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

 ;) 8) :P

Offline Kings

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #649 on: Yesterday at 06:03:47 AM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

why did they use a rolling 9 month period of sales ending in april?  what's wrong with 12 months?  almost feels like cherry picked data?

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #650 on: Yesterday at 07:33:02 AM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

Sales volume is down but prices are still high. Must be that lag that’s coming in December.

Let's see what the article and data actually says:

Quote
CoreLogic found these 17 trends in 11 ZIP codes covered by the Orange County Register’s Irvine World News weekly …

1. Purchases: Home sales in these nine months totaled 3,767 vs. 4,503 a year earlier, a decline of 16% in a year.

2. Who’s up: Prices increased in seven of the 11 ZIPs as sales rose in just two ZIPs.

3. Countywide: $720,000 median selling price, flat in the period. Orange County sales totaled 22,872 residences, existing and new, vs. 27,289 a year earlier, a decline of 16% in a year. Prices rose in 43 out of 83 Orange County ZIPs and sales were up in 9 out of 83 ZIPs.

Here is how prices and sales moved in Irvine and Tustin …

4. Irvine 92602: $1,325,500 median, down 7.3% in a year. Price rank? 8th of 83. Sales of 426 vs. 299 a year earlier, a gain of 42.5% in 12 months.

5. Irvine 92603: $1,092,500 median, down 18.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 167 vs. 207 a year earlier, a decline of 19.3% in 12 months.

6. Irvine 92604: $790,250 median, up 14.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 29 of 83. Sales of 164 vs. 187 a year earlier, a decline of 12.3% in 12 months.

7. Irvine 92606: $725,000 median, down 11.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 36 of 83. Sales of 92 vs. 120 a year earlier, a decline of 23.3% in 12 months.

8. Irvine 92612: $675,000 median, up 1.5% in a year.] Price rank? No. 51 of 83. Sales of 299 vs. 301 a year earlier, a decline of 0.7% in 12 months.

9. Irvine 92614: $716,000 median, up 8.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 40 of 83. Sales of 165 vs. 181 a year earlier, a decline of 8.8% in 12 months.

10. Irvine 92618: $977,000 median, up 21.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 13 of 83. Sales of 1084 vs. 1,327 a year earlier, a decline of 18.3% in 12 months.

11. Irvine 92620: $1,002,250 median, up 0.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 12 of 83. Sales of 607 vs. 973 a year earlier, a decline of 37.6% in 12 months.

So for Irvine's 8 zip codes, 3 were down and 5 were up price-wise. Doing the math, is that a net price increase of 8.8%?

Quote
12. Tustin 92780: $650,000 median, up 17.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 55 of 83. Sales of 255 vs. 320 a year earlier, a decline of 20.3% in 12 months.

13. Tustin 92782: $693,500 median, down 13.7% in a year. Price rank? No. 46 of 83. Sales of 206 vs. 288 a year earlier, a decline of 28.5% in 12 months.

14. Santa Ana/North Tustin 92705: $935,000 median, up 5.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 16 of 83. Sales of 302 vs. 300 a year earlier, a gain of 0.7% in 12 months.

Looks like Tustin prices are more up than down too.

Quote
Plus, three more countywide trends found in nine months ended in April vs. the same period one year earlier …

15. Single-family-home resales: 13,720 Orange County sales vs. 16,058 a year earlier, a decline of 14.6% in the period. Median: $767,000 — a dip of 1.0% in the period.

16. Condo resales: 6,038 sales vs. 7,218 a year earlier, a decline of 16.3% in 12 months. Median: $500,000 — unchanged in the timeframe.

17. New homes: Builders sold 3,114 residences vs. 4,013 a year earlier, a decline of 22.4% in 12 months. Median: $981,500 — a rise of 7.3% in a year.

So even county-wide, despite lower volume, prices are slightly up.

Do we re-check this in July? December? Next year? Next "season"?
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