Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 48179 times)

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Offline Snowleopard

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #585 on: May 16, 2019, 02:52:30 PM »
Does anyone think homes on the Newport Peninsula (currently priced around two million and under) will be more affordable toward the end of 2019 and into 2020? If so, why? Thank you!

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #586 on: May 16, 2019, 03:39:59 PM »
General comment: water is rising

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #587 on: May 17, 2019, 07:00:13 AM »
One thing I would like to point out in trying to time the bottom is the pitfall of analysis paralysis.

Let's play out this scenario that some type of economic event will tank home prices, do you continue to wait? Or because of the uncertainty that is now present (like when the Dow crashed in 08), you hold off hoping to see more drops.

In all likelihood, prices will rise much faster than they drop and then you get caught competing with others on the "good" homes or the home you want isn't available because as prices rise, people may hold rather than list as they try to time the peak.

Or, instead of putting offers in, you wait because you saw similar ones get scooped up for a lower price and you hope that that type of deal becomes available again. But then, prices run up and you aren't able to find something you like without paying prices similar to before the decline in the first place.

Or do you wait forever hoping for the ultimate drop that never materializes because 5%, 10% or 12% wasn't enough.

And don't mistake this as the meme "Buy now or be priced out forever", it's more like "Buy what you can afford or you will be trying to time the bottom forever".
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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #588 on: May 17, 2019, 07:41:00 AM »
I saw those other Bodega ones but where are the cheaper ones people should be able to buy today?

If it's a real slowdown, shouldn't there be a number of these same models available for less?

Why do you assume there would be a number of these same models out at any given time? There were a few that sold last year for a high price as demonstrated. 

That speaks to my issue of trying to find these bargains if you waited. If 10 people are looking for this model but there is only 1 available, what do the other 9 do? If a few sold for a high price last year, shouldn't there be a few that will sell for a low price this year if this is a significant slowdown? You criticized me for using specific examples of my own home search yet you are doing the same thing here. Are there more? What percentage of homes sold now were "12-15%" less than last year?

Let's use your standard of measurement for the last drop of 28% in Irvine, using Trulia's numbers:

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

The high last year was $851k in July 18 and the low this year was $810k in Feb 19. If my math is right, that's 4.8%.

And the median right now is $835k, which is a drop of only 1.9%.

But maybe prices will drop again as we move into the summer season, or fall/winter... or next year, or 3 years from now... or 5 years.

Quote
The one that sold this year was significantly discounted and there is one more out right now.  The one currently listed is much more upgraded than any of the previous homes that sold, but is listed at or lower than the model matches that sold in 2018 and has been on the market for 50 days. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Dinuba-92602/home/5771881

Guess what is coming next for this house?  A price adjustment since it has not sold in nearly 50 days.  This will sell for less than the homes that sold in 2018 even though it is a much more upgraded home.  It is just a matter of how much less. 

50 days doesn't seem to be too far from normal. Since you're focusing on Northpark, what does the data say?

https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/1922/CA/Irvine/North-Park/housing-market

Quote
Some homes get multiple offers.
Homes sell for about 1% below list price and go pending in around 45 days.
Hot Homes can sell for about 1% above list price and go pending in around 26 days.
Home Prices in North Park
Average over the last month
$823K Sale Price
+7.6% since last year
$427 Sale $/Sq. Ft.
-6.6% since last year
Under list Price 1.1%
Days on Market 45
Down Payment 64.5%
Total Homes Sold 21

What about Irvine as a whole?

https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

Quote
$879K Sale Price
+9.3% since last year
$477 Sale $/Sq. Ft.
+0.53% since last year
Under List Price 1.7%
Days on Market 51
Down Payment 24.7%
Total Homes Sold 233

Irvine prices are so stubborn.
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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #589 on: May 17, 2019, 11:28:11 AM »
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/110-Confederation-Way-Irvine-CA-92602/25520651_zpid/

This was listed first in 2018 at $980 and finally got sold Feb this year at $808k. You can do the math how much % that is and it's much higher than your 10%. West Irvine is pretty close to NP also.

980k for this is way overpriced especially backing the tollroad, so realistically this would have never sold at 980k.  I've seen 4/3's in West Irvine going at this price point or less.  I actually saw this home on redfin when it was first listed but is a hard pass when backing the tollroad.  Homes near major roadways should always be less than comparable homes farther away in my opinion. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Keepsake-92618/home/40102842
The buyer would have paid $52k more if bought in Oct. 2018 when first listed. Good thing they waited.

Are these comparable homes that sold in 2018 to your above example?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/82-Cienega-92618/home/12253701 800k, but ~200 sf bigger price per sf is cheaper here
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Bell-Chime-92618/home/21928642, 762k, but ~200 sf smaller price per sf is more expensive

Both these homes are <5% sold price diff from your example. 

List price vs sold price isn't an indication IMO since you have some crazy sellers out there.  I could list something at 2mm when it's actually only worth 1mm on the market, does that mean someone saved 50% when they bought at 1mm?  Do you have examples of similar detached homes where the diff in sold prices are 10% or greater?

Thanks for pointing out important matters. You're right that someone might list way over the right price range and those are the ones usually sitting on the market for a long time.

I was searching to compare model to model examples and found some with reduced prices in older areas and PS mostly. There was not 10% drop model to model comparison on the sold prices for sub-$900k I could find from mid last year to now for NP or nearby for detached with 3+ beds yet. There are couple of them for attached though. Also the number 10% could be different for everyone. Are we counting the default 3% yearly appreciation or just talking about the hard numbers only? Either way is fine, but the latter is kind of ignoring the natural market flow. Also another thing to notice, besides the sold price, is the inventory levels and the times on the market before it goes into the escrow. There seems to be more homes on the market and longer period of time they're sitting than usual so that was where some people and I originally wanted to get into.

If you look at Legado, the new construction from PS, and check their price history in Zillow, they will show how it went up the peak in mid 2018 and now reduced quite a bit from that time. I'm not too familiar with each phase on that tract so it might be different lots played on the price, but I think overall the pricing looks to represent the general market flow in Irvine.
https://www.zillow.com/community/legado-at-portola-springs/2097390861_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/community/legado-at-portola-springs/2096251222_zpid/

However, I must say, there is not much that depreciated in Irvine especially those in "better" villages  even though many homes in other cities suffered a lot of price cuts.

Offline Happiness

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #590 on: May 17, 2019, 12:04:27 PM »

If you look at Legado, the new construction from PS, and check their price history in Zillow, they will show how it went up the peak in mid 2018 and now reduced quite a bit from that time. I'm not too familiar with each phase on that tract so it might be different lots played on the price, but I think overall the pricing looks to represent the general market flow in Irvine.
https://www.zillow.com/community/legado-at-portola-springs/2097390861_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/community/legado-at-portola-springs/2096251222_zpid/

However, I must say, there is not much that depreciated in Irvine especially those in "better" villages  even though many homes in other cities suffered a lot of price cuts.

Portola Springs Derangement Syndrome: Buy at lower price than surrounding neighborhoods and expect to resell at same price as surrounding neighbors.

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #591 on: May 17, 2019, 12:50:40 PM »

If you look at Legado, the new construction from PS, and check their price history in Zillow, they will show how it went up the peak in mid 2018 and now reduced quite a bit from that time. I'm not too familiar with each phase on that tract so it might be different lots played on the price, but I think overall the pricing looks to represent the general market flow in Irvine.
https://www.zillow.com/community/legado-at-portola-springs/2097390861_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/community/legado-at-portola-springs/2096251222_zpid/

However, I must say, there is not much that depreciated in Irvine especially those in "better" villages  even though many homes in other cities suffered a lot of price cuts.

Portola Springs Derangement Syndrome: Buy at lower price than surrounding neighborhoods and expect to resell at same price as surrounding neighbors.

Another smart comment by happiness or maybe not

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #592 on: May 17, 2019, 02:04:14 PM »

If you look at Legado, the new construction from PS, and check their price history in Zillow, they will show how it went up the peak in mid 2018 and now reduced quite a bit from that time. I'm not too familiar with each phase on that tract so it might be different lots played on the price, but I think overall the pricing looks to represent the general market flow in Irvine.
https://www.zillow.com/community/legado-at-portola-springs/2097390861_zpid/
https://www.zillow.com/community/legado-at-portola-springs/2096251222_zpid/

However, I must say, there is not much that depreciated in Irvine especially those in "better" villages  even though many homes in other cities suffered a lot of price cuts.

Portola Springs Derangement Syndrome: Buy at lower price than surrounding neighborhoods and expect to resell at same price as surrounding neighbors.

Another smart comment by happiness or maybe not

I think PS and EW will have a similar price tag in 20 years eventually.

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #593 on: May 17, 2019, 02:07:00 PM »
How about this?
This is a positive comment. Just be happy you have a place to stay?

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #594 on: May 17, 2019, 02:18:39 PM »
How about this?
This is a positive comment. Just be happy you have a place to stay?

WERD

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #595 on: May 28, 2019, 07:27:27 AM »
The graphs I've been looking at looks like the rebound is leveling off so we might not see a return to highs of previous years.

But you never know... this is Irvine.
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Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #596 on: May 28, 2019, 09:29:05 AM »
The graphs I've been looking at looks like the rebound is leveling off so we might not see a return to highs of previous years.

But you never know... this is Irvine.

Slow down was called less than a year ago thus in it would be inaccurate to compare current prices as the main YoY price effects of a slowdown will be seen later down the line. 

I suspect that any rebound seen lately is what you like to call "seasonal" but the real effects of the slowdown are yet to be seen in my opinion.  Compare YoY numbers this coming Dec vs last Dec.  That will likely give you a better picture of what the slowdown did to pricing. 


Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #597 on: May 28, 2019, 09:56:08 AM »
According to Zillow on 92602 the median price was as follows:
MAY 2018 ~ 923,000
MAY 2019 ~ 926,000

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca-92602/home-values/

However, Zillow forecasts declines into 2020.

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #598 on: May 28, 2019, 10:49:31 AM »
According to Zillow on 92602 the median price was as follows:
MAY 2018 ~ 923,000
MAY 2019 ~ 926,000

https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca-92602/home-values/

However, Zillow forecasts declines into 2020.

Prices follow volume.  Thus I would argue that we should be comparing YoY prices with a minimum of 6-12 month delay.

Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #599 on: May 28, 2019, 10:54:17 AM »
What are we arguing about?

 

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