Author Topic: Housing Analysis  (Read 49603 times)

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Offline Mety

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #795 on: February 13, 2019, 01:05:40 PM »
I can't make any determinations until summer rolls around.

Although the data seems to say this time is different, predictions based on data has not always been right... especially when it comes to Irvine.



Still wondering what you are trying to determine.

When Irvine home prices will crash by 40%.

While that is a possibility, if Irvine homes drop by 40% then the surrounding areas will suffer more. That would be a huge national crisis. Nothing the president would be happy with no matter who.


Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #796 on: February 13, 2019, 01:56:32 PM »
meccos12 called the market top was last year and seems like it really is heading that direction since.

IHO's been saying it could've been seasonality, but Irvine home prices won't drop as much even if there were a recession thus buy if when you find a home you want no matter when.

Are these what you guys are pretty much saying?

Please add if there is anything missing so we or I can understand better. Thanks.

Yeah, that's close enough. Not sure why meccos12 can't understand it.
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Offline meccos12

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #797 on: February 13, 2019, 02:13:57 PM »
meccos12 called the market top was last year and seems like it really is heading that direction since.

IHO's been saying it could've been seasonality, but Irvine home prices won't drop as much even if there were a recession thus buy if when you find a home you want no matter when.

Are these what you guys are pretty much saying?

Please add if there is anything missing so we or I can understand better. Thanks.

I think that sums it up pretty clear.  The hilarious thing is that IHO still implying it is seasonal, despite all the data we have seen so far.  Atleast he is not refuting there is a slowdown anymore. 

Offline meccos12

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #798 on: February 13, 2019, 02:16:33 PM »
meccos12 called the market top was last year and seems like it really is heading that direction since.

IHO's been saying it could've been seasonality, but Irvine home prices won't drop as much even if there were a recession thus buy if when you find a home you want no matter when.

Are these what you guys are pretty much saying?

Please add if there is anything missing so we or I can understand better. Thanks.

Yeah, that's close enough. Not sure why meccos12 can't understand it.
Im not sure what it is I dont understand.  However what I dont understand is why you cant admit that there was a slowdown in housing.  I understand it may have been hard to see it several months ago, but by now even you should be able to see it. 

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #799 on: February 13, 2019, 06:08:54 PM »
Even for novice investors and homeowners KNOWS, that house can not sustain the 10 % increase years after years since bottom out 2012.

For instance this home, bought in 2014 https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Fieldwood-92618/home/51682526 bought for a little over $ 1 Mil and after almost 5 years it is estimated at 1.5. So that's like 100K appreciation per year wowzer, so now here we are, are we going to slow down, shiat yeah, sherlock.

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #800 on: February 13, 2019, 07:07:35 PM »
It is certainly looking like Meccos12 correctly called the market top at the beginning of August 2018. 

While I do not completely disagree with IHO's take, I do not think IHO's take on housing will work for most novice buyers. His theory works only if one's time frame is very long term and is not stretching to buy. Most first time buyers are looking to move up in the near future and will stretch to buy.

The bull run from 2011 to 2018 erased a lot of mistakes made in the past. But going forward, new mistakes will be magnified in a flat/declining market.

If you are a novice buyer, it would be best to re-exam your situation carefully. You have a housing need and you have a desire to buy a house. Do not mistake want for need. Irvine's rent vs buy difference is big enough to seriously consider alternatives.

Don't let a bank/loan officer determine how much house you buy. You should know your situation better than anyone. I work with a lot of younger people and this is the most common mistake I see.

You will feel the burn of the 4-6% transaction cost much much more in a flat/declining market. Plan for it.

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #801 on: February 13, 2019, 07:15:12 PM »
It is certainly looking like Meccos12 correctly called the market top at the beginning of August 2018. 

While I do not completely disagree with IHO's take, I do not think IHO's take on housing will work for most novice buyers. His theory works only if one's time frame is very long term and is not stretching to buy. Most first time buyers are looking to move up in the near future and will stretch to buy.

The bull run from 2011 to 2018 erased a lot of mistakes made in the past. But going forward, new mistakes will be magnified in a flat/declining market.

If you are a novice buyer, it would be best to re-exam your situation carefully. You have a housing need and you have a desire to buy a house. Do not mistake want for need. Irvine's rent vs buy difference is big enough to seriously consider alternatives.

Don't let a bank/loan officer determine how much house you buy. You should know your situation better than anyone. I work with a lot of younger people and this is the most common mistake I see.

You will feel the burn of the 4-6% transaction cost much much more in a flat/declining market. Plan for it.

The other thing that these newer buyers don't consider using is an ARM loan to bring the cost down even though both they and I know they'll sell the home within 5-7 years.  Most buyers don't get an ARM loan because they don't understand how it works and the pros and cons.  Today the interest rate delta between a 7-year ARM and 30-year fixed is 0.75% which is high and makes getting a 7-year ARM compelling.  Besides the lower interest and lower payment, the principal balance is paid down quickly with a lower rate so the owners will build equity faster.  That being said, ARM loans don't work for everyone and should not be used to stretch further to buy a bigger place.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #802 on: February 13, 2019, 08:26:24 PM »
My advice has always had caveats. Unlike others, I have outlined under what circumstances and given detailed reasons multiple times when asked.

Not once have I answered “I don’t work for you so I don’t have to answer your question” (at least not in jest).

I welcome and encourage discussion even if I end up on the “wrong” side of it.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #803 on: February 13, 2019, 08:34:45 PM »
This is not advice but admission regarding USC’s post about ARM loans.

We have stretched using an ARM, even the dreaded OARM of 90s/00s notoriety.

Risky? Yes, but we knew our income would rise and we made sure we could afford the fully indexed payment. It’s funny because when rates dropped, our minimum payment was more than P&I and so we were actually paying down our loan faster.

So when the IHB kept talking about the OARM reset tsunami and how it would create a wave of foreclosures, it actually adjusted to our favor.

But as USC said, it all depends on your situation.

Edit: Typo
« Last Edit: February 13, 2019, 10:01:00 PM by irvinehomeowner »
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline meccos12

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #804 on: February 14, 2019, 05:34:43 AM »
Even for novice investors and homeowners KNOWS, that house can not sustain the 10 % increase years after years since bottom out 2012.

For instance this home, bought in 2014 https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Fieldwood-92618/home/51682526 bought for a little over $ 1 Mil and after almost 5 years it is estimated at 1.5. So that's like 100K appreciation per year wowzer, so now here we are, are we going to slow down, shiat yeah, sherlock.

So obvious now huh?

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #805 on: February 14, 2019, 07:18:10 AM »
meccos12 called the market top was last year and seems like it really is heading that direction since.

IHO's been saying it could've been seasonality, but Irvine home prices won't drop as much even if there were a recession thus buy if when you find a home you want no matter when.

Are these what you guys are pretty much saying?

Please add if there is anything missing so we or I can understand better. Thanks.

Yeah, that's close enough. Not sure why meccos12 can't understand it.
Im not sure what it is I dont understand.  However what I dont understand is why you cant admit that there was a slowdown in housing.  I understand it may have been hard to see it several months ago, but by now even you should be able to see it. 

For the guy who hates strawman, why do you keep doing it?

Where have I said there isn't a slowdown? What I have said is:

1. Is this slowdown seasonal?
2. What kind of slowdown is it (percentage-wise)?
3. How long is this slowdown?
4. If the slowdown percentage is not that high and no one can tell us for how long, depending on your circumstance, you might not want to wait.

So please stop misrepresenting my opinion.

Let's go to data since that's the thing you value most (because personal experience is not credible to you)... in the last 5 years, every cyclical slowdown in sales price has been about 3 to 11% (could be more, could be less). If this one is only 5-10% or even as high as 15% and prices go back up, is that within the boundary of "seasonal"?
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Offline meccos12

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #806 on: February 14, 2019, 08:14:52 AM »

For the guy who hates strawman, why do you keep doing it?

Where have I said there isn't a slowdown? What I have said is:

1. Is this slowdown seasonal?
2. What kind of slowdown is it (percentage-wise)?
3. How long is this slowdown?
4. If the slowdown percentage is not that high and no one can tell us for how long, depending on your circumstance, you might not want to wait.


I dont think you can speak about strawman because you dont understand it.

If you are arguing that you never denied there is a slowdown, then for once, please explicitly state so and we can be done with this conversation.  The problem is you that make all sort of implications about there being no slowdown but argue otherwise when challenged.  Own what you think and what you say. 




Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #807 on: February 14, 2019, 08:22:28 AM »

For the guy who hates strawman, why do you keep doing it?

Where have I said there isn't a slowdown? What I have said is:

1. Is this slowdown seasonal?
2. What kind of slowdown is it (percentage-wise)?
3. How long is this slowdown?
4. If the slowdown percentage is not that high and no one can tell us for how long, depending on your circumstance, you might not want to wait.


I dont think you can speak about strawman because you dont understand it.


Uh, you said "I can't admit there is a slowdown in housing" and you are using that to question my credibility. Why don't you do your homework and find those posts where I actually do say there is a slowdown but then I ask all those questions above.

Quote
If you are arguing that you never denied there is a slowdown, then for once, please explicitly state that there is a slowdown and we can be done with this conversation.  The problem is you make all sort of implications but argue otherwise.  Own it. 

You're not my boss, I don't have to do what you say. Oh wait... that's the cop out answer.

Why can't I make other implications? This is a forum to discuss things. As I've contended from the beginning, yes, there is a slowdown, but what is the magnitude, what is the time frame and how is it not seasonal are all pertinent questions that everyone (not just me) would like to know. Why you don't get that is nonsensical.

And you always avoid my questions when I answer yours, again:

Let's go to data since that's the thing you value most (because personal experience is not credible to you)... in the last 5 years, every cyclical slowdown in sales price has been about 3 to 11% (could be more, could be less). If this one is only 5-10% or even as high as 15% and prices go back up, is that within the boundary of "seasonal"?
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Offline meccos12

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #808 on: February 14, 2019, 08:49:43 AM »

As I've contended from the beginning, yes, there is a slowdown, but what is the magnitude, what is the time frame and how is it not seasonal are all pertinent questions that everyone (not just me) would like to know.


Ahhhhh, I must have missed it when you stated there was a slowdown from the very beginning.  Man, if some of us like eye, ken and I saw that you were saying there was a slowdown from the very beginning, then we wouldnt have these long wonderful threads!




   


Offline eyephone

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #809 on: February 14, 2019, 09:06:11 AM »

As I've contended from the beginning, yes, there is a slowdown, but what is the magnitude, what is the time frame and how is it not seasonal are all pertinent questions that everyone (not just me) would like to know.


Ahhhhh, I must have missed it when you stated there was a slowdown from the very beginning.  Man, if some of us like eye, ken and I saw that you were saying there was a slowdown from the very beginning, then we wouldnt have these long wonderful threads!

I see the white flag. To be honest he attempted to chase us away from TI like Belly and Land of Land. (Lol released info on TI before the builder website. We don’t know how he got the info, but it was extremely helpful. Keep in mind this was during the bull run housing cycle.  Thanks to someone lol is no longer here.)
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 09:46:05 AM by eyephone »

 

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