The Real Knife Catchers of OC (Irvine median home price hits 9-year low)

Liar Loan

Liar Loan

Well-known member
Irvine median home price hits 9-year lowhttp://ochousingnews.com/news/irvine-median-home-price-hits-9-year-low

You can bash the median all you want, but it's not possible for a shifting sales mix in a city the size of Irvine to be solely responsible for a $320,000 price decline since the peak.  Every village except University Park has a lower PpSF than one year ago, so the price decline continues and many of the sales that IHO posted have lost value in a short amount of time.  They are like the '08 buyers in the non-Irvine/non-coastal areas of OC that purchased too early.  They were the early knife catchers.  Now it's Irvine's and the beach cities' turn to feel the pain.  Those that purchased in these higher end areas from 2008-2011 are the Real Knife Catchers of OC.

So to answer IHO's question from another thread...

Yes, Irvine prices got "destroyed" and will continue to get "destroyed" for some time.
 
No way man!

You know why?

unicorn-rainbow.jpg.gif


Also why hasn't Irvine declined like Santa Ana, or Stanton? Because it's different.
 
Liar Loan said:
Now it's Irvine's and the beach cities' turn to feel the pain.  Those that purchased in these higher end areas from 2008-2011 are the Real Knife Catchers of OC.
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You can't compare Irvine to beach cities... at least that's what someone here told me. ???
So to answer IHO's question from another thread...

Yes, Irvine prices got "destroyed" and continue to get "destroyed" as we speak.
Click to expand...
Depends on your definition of "destroyed". I was told it would be 1999 pricing... so if we are at the 2003 median.... we still have 4 more years worth of declines to go... maybe that will happen by 2013... and I can get that newer 3CWG for $700k (although that median has probably dropped less than a lower end condo or an ultra high-end Shady Canyon).

Again... certain areas still seem to be stubborn:

--
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/50-Calavera-92606/home/4628440

Oct 26, 2011 Sold (Public Records) $889,500 0.0%/yr Public Records
Oct 26, 2011 Sold (MLS) (Closed) $889,500 -- CRMLS #S667356
Oct 07, 2011 Pending (Backup Offers Accepted) -- -- CRMLS #S667356
Jul 21, 2011 Listed (Active) $938,000 -- CRMLS #S667356
Mar 25, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $888,500 135.9%/yr Public Records
Feb 04, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $790,000 13.1%/yr Public Records
Mar 06, 1997 Sold (Public Records) $337,000 -- Public Records

Think that will hit $400k in the next few years (that's what these models sold for in 1999)?

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$914k closed on 2/28/12 (around the same price in mid 2000s)http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/46-Festivo-92606/home/4628540
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Pompeii-92606/home/4629505
Nov 04, 2011 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 6.6%/yr Public Records
Jun 02, 1999 Sold (Public Records) $383,000 3.9%/yr Public Records

Would be nice to pick up that up for $383k next year.

--

$850k closed on 1/31/12... larger models sold for around the same price in 2008:http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/17-Santa-Rida-92606/home/4626542

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$1.018m... closed 10/26/11... that's 2005 pricing!http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/48-Festivo-92606/home/4628542

--

Now... I realize this may be cherry picking as these are all homes built around the same time in the same area... but I just wanted to demonstrate how some products are more stubborn than others and this particular area I am very familiar with. So maybe that biases my perception. These don't even feed into Uni high.

But... I agree... prices have gone down quite a bit (and perhaps "destroyed" at the low end and the high end)... and should continue to (I estimated higher drops than Larry) but I have yet to see the "destruction" that was predicted at the product level that concerns me.
 
But these are almost all the listings for bigger WestPark II homes in the last 6 months... so it's not like I'm only taking the highs.
 
This should be very good news for those waiting to buy but yet those waiting to buy would rather see this 9 year low as a false statement. I just don't get it.
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
This should be very good news for those waiting to buy but yet those waiting to buy would rather see this 9 year low as a false statement. I just don't get it.
Click to expand...

That's what I don't get either. The only people who should want unicorns are shills.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Depends on your definition of "destroyed". I was told it would be 1999 pricing... so if we are at the 2003 median.... we still have 4 more years worth of declines to go... maybe that will happen by 2013... and I can get that newer 3CWG for $700k (although that median has probably dropped less than a lower end condo or an ultra high-end Shady Canyon).

Again... certain areas still seem to be stubborn:

--
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/50-Calavera-92606/home/4628440

Oct 26, 2011 Sold (Public Records) $889,500 0.0%/yr Public Records
Oct 26, 2011 Sold (MLS) (Closed) $889,500 -- CRMLS #S667356
Oct 07, 2011 Pending (Backup Offers Accepted) -- -- CRMLS #S667356
Jul 21, 2011 Listed (Active) $938,000 -- CRMLS #S667356
Mar 25, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $888,500 135.9%/yr Public Records
Feb 04, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $790,000 13.1%/yr Public Records
Mar 06, 1997 Sold (Public Records) $337,000 -- Public Records

Think that will hit $400k in the next few years (that's what these models sold for in 1999)?

---

$914k closed on 2/28/12 (around the same price in mid 2000s)http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/46-Festivo-92606/home/4628540
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Pompeii-92606/home/4629505
Nov 04, 2011 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 6.6%/yr Public Records
Jun 02, 1999 Sold (Public Records) $383,000 3.9%/yr Public Records

Would be nice to pick up that up for $383k next year.

--

$850k closed on 1/31/12... larger models sold for around the same price in 2008:http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/17-Santa-Rida-92606/home/4626542

--

$1.018m... closed 10/26/11... that's 2005 pricing!http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/48-Festivo-92606/home/4628542

--

Now... I realize this may be cherry picking as these are all homes built around the same time in the same area... but I just wanted to demonstrate how some products are more stubborn than others and this particular area I am very familiar with. So maybe that biases my perception. These don't even feed into Uni high.

But... I agree... prices have gone down quite a bit (and perhaps "destroyed" at the low end and the high end)... and should continue to (I estimated higher drops than Larry) but I have yet to see the "destruction" that was predicted at the product level that concerns me.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's cherrypicking because none of the properties you linked to disproves my point.  The best link you have is 50 Calvera and that just sold for what it did 8 YEARS AGO!!  Early 2004 was not peak pricing.

I never claimed prices would roll back to the 90's.  You are taking the views of some extreme RE bears and projecting them onto me.  I've argued that we wouldn't hit 1998 prices repeatedly over on Lansner's blog.  The only people that believe(d) that are those that thought our economy would mirror Japan's but so far it hasn't.

Some areas are more resilient than others but that doesn't mean they are invincible.  Irvine has some of the highest demand of any city in OC, but it's really starting to buckle now.  If the low- to mid-tier product starts to crash, then it will have repurcussions all the way up the ladder.

 
@LL:

Just to be clear... I'm not projecting anything on you... that's why I asked what your definition of "destroyed" is. My links were just to show how prices have not moved on certain properties in Irvine (I can probably find the similar closes in other stubborn areas/cities).

I think we agree since neither of us think we are going to see late 90s pricing... but it would be nice to get a late 90s 3CWG for $380k.

@SGIP:

Yes... no appreciation in 8 years... but that's better than some of negative appreciation other areas/cities have gone through in the same time frame. :)
 
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