Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

[irvineprospect]

hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Being grown-up sucks. 

 

[zubs]

hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

If this childish bickering gets someone like you to post for the first time, then I say:

 

[Mety]

Welcome back, YF!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Sure, it does get elementary at times.

But don't discount the importance of "bickering". Confrontation and disagreement are actually effective tools in getting to details or points that aren't easily discerned due to lack of tone in a medium like this. Many times, the resolution or compromise that results from a conflict improves the overall conversation.

While some may consider it arguing (or what some members think is "attacking"), it really is an effort to get to the reasoning behind the opinion. Data without opinions/analysis can be misleading, as is the opposite... you need both in order to come up with a true picture of the reality. That's why forums exists, to *discuss* the data, opinions and facts to give deeper color to the picture. That's why historically, the IHB and TI forums have always had more activity than the IHB/TI blog, because it's a conversation and not just a lecture.

Welcome to TI Elementary.

 

[Cares]

Welcome to TI Elementary.

What's the GreatSchools rating?

 

[eyephone]

hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Believe it or not. Because of the slowdown talk it saved some members money. (Just tune out the noise and look at the data people provided)

You know what I?m noticing a pattern that someone on TI chases or trolls members away from TI. (For example: Belly, another member I think his sn was land of land)

For those who don?t know who the TI member land of land was. He gave great info about new projects in Irvine like new neighborhoods. Also, he gave other insights that was really helpful.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Believe it or not. Because of the slowdown talk it saved some members money. (Just tune out the noise and look at the data people provided)

You know what I?m noticing a pattern that someone on TI chases or trolls members away from TI. (For example: Belly, another member I think his sn was land of land)

For those who don?t know who the TI member land of land was. He gave great info about new projects in Irvine like new neighborhoods. Also, he gave other insights that was really helpful.

Hold on here cowboy. Its easy to say that you saved people money without actual facts and data. Name one person that you know, actually on TI readers that saved by you. Tough question, I know, but you got to prove your writing.

 

[eyephone]

hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Believe it or not. Because of the slowdown talk it saved some members money. (Just tune out the noise and look at the data people provided)

You know what I?m noticing a pattern that someone on TI chases or trolls members away from TI. (For example: Belly, another member I think his sn was land of land)

For those who don?t know who the TI member land of land was. He gave great info about new projects in Irvine like new neighborhoods. Also, he gave other insights that was really helpful.

Hold on here cowboy. Its easy to say that you saved people money without actual facts and data. Name one person that you know, actually on TI readers that saved by you. Tough question, I know, but you got to prove your writing.

Let me look it up. I?ll get back to you later today.

 

[zubs]

hi, is this the irvine elementary school forum?  i could've swore it was because y'all are acting like a bunch of children.  go take it to a chatroom, armchair warriors.  people like USC provide real meat to this discussion.  this bickering is detracting from the real discussion of this thread.

Believe it or not. Because of the slowdown talk it saved some members money. (Just tune out the noise and look at the data people provided)

You know what I?m noticing a pattern that someone on TI chases or trolls members away from TI. (For example: Belly, another member I think his sn was land of land)

For those who don?t know who the TI member land of land was. He gave great info about new projects in Irvine like new neighborhoods. Also, he gave other insights that was really helpful.

LandowhateverLand was using TI to get people to subscribe to her website.  She erased her info here when we made fun of her. 
FYI: I think she was female...her website was pink.

 

[Kenkoko]

Here to give Eyephone some credit. I've been a long time lurker on this forum prior to joining in the discussion last July. Being bearish isn't exactly easy on this forum.

I been helping my "Irvine or bust" parents with a 1031 exchange for almost a year. We just opened escrow last week and will be saving a lot of $$$ because I was able to talk my parents into waiting. Eyephone and a few other bearish members were not the sole reason or the top reason I was able to convince them to hold off but it helped.

Back to the topic of the post. The comps for the home we are in escrow for was closing at slightly above 1 million in April,June 2018. They were closing for low 900s at the end of 2018. We used that and made gazillion low ball offers and got a desperate owner to agree to budge for just above 870k.

The market is softening and inventory is increasing. If you are in the market to buy a home, definitely leverage this to your advantage.

 

[newbieinirvine]

Here to give Eyephone some credit. I've been a long time lurker on this forum prior to joining in the discussion last July. Being bearish isn't exactly easy on this forum.

I been helping my "Irvine or bust" parents with a 1031 exchange for almost a year. We just opened escrow last week and will be saving a lot of $$$ because I was able to talk my parents into waiting. Eyephone and a few other bearish members were not the sole reason or the top reason I was able to convince them to hold off but it helped.

Back to the topic of the post. The comps for the home we are in escrow for was closing at slightly above 1 million in April,June 2018. They were closing for low 900s at the end of 2018. We used that and made gazillion low ball offers and got a desperate owner to agree to budge for just above 870k.

The market is softening and inventory is increasing. If you are in the market to buy a home, definitely leverage this to your advantage.

+1.

I'm in the market to buy now and credit TI for all the research and feedback to help me wait. My realtor was pushing me to buy 1 year ago and I said prices will drop. My wife and the realtor didn't agree, but just last month, my realtor caved and said that she's glad I waited because prices have dropped (with SP/LP spreads widening and DOM increasing).

I specifically saw the change end of December/early January when homes were falling out of escrow (@ the $1.2-1.5M range). Now I'm just waiting to find the right home ($/layout) somewhere in the GP.

 

[usctrojancpa]

A little specific update for the middle of the month...I've made offers for 6 properties for a buyer (properties listed between low $600s and mid $700s) and 3 of the listings have multiple offers (Woodbury and Northwood).  Seems like some buyers on the lower end of the market are beginning to nibble on properties that look good and are priced right.  On the high end of the market, the number of listings keeps piling up.

 

[Mety]

A little specific update for the middle of the month...I've made offers for 6 properties for a buyer (properties listed between low $600s and mid $700s) and 3 of the listings have multiple offers (Woodbury and Northwood).  Seems like some buyers on the lower end of the market are beginning to nibble on properties that look good and are priced right.  On the high end of the market, the number of listings keeps piling up.

That could tell either of these two scenarios.

a) Those lower end buyers (aka. newbies) are jumping on the bandwagon late while all the pros already bought their investment homes before the peak.

b) The market is picking up and the infamous #seasonality is playing its card.


Another interesting note - Since when was the $700k buyer considered a lower end buyer? Well maybe it is in Irvine.  ;D

 

[usctrojancpa]

A little specific update for the middle of the month...I've made offers for 6 properties for a buyer (properties listed between low $600s and mid $700s) and 3 of the listings have multiple offers (Woodbury and Northwood).  Seems like some buyers on the lower end of the market are beginning to nibble on properties that look good and are priced right.  On the high end of the market, the number of listings keeps piling up.

That could tell either of these two scenarios.

a) Those lower end buyers (aka. newbies) are jumping on the bandwagon late while all the pros already bought their investment homes before the peak.

b) The market is picking up and the infamous #seasonality is playing its card.


Another interesting note - Since when was the $700k buyer considered a lower end buyer? Well maybe it is in Irvine.  ;D

To early to tell just yet but it seems that some buyers have come off the sidelines with the lower rates. Doesn't mean that buyers are bidding over list price, in fact all 6 offers that I made for that buyer were all below list price and some about 5% below list price.  There are some stubborn seller on the low end too but given enough time linger on the market they'll learn.  haha

 

[usctrojancpa]

It's that time again...to post up some data with the attached excel file and analysis on what happened in the previous month.  Sales came in at 139 homes in the month of February 2019 or 14% higher than January 2019 but a whopping 16% lower than February 2018.  The medium price per SF from a year-over-year basis decreased by 1.3% for the first time January 2015.  Keep in mind that the February closings were for the most part escrows that opened in December and January right before interest rates started dropping.  The number of active listings increased by 54 homes from the end of January to the end of February but increased by a whopping 359 homes from the end of February 2018 (I added 2 additional columns in my file to show the YOY change and % change in the inventory level at the end of each month).  This increase in inventory caused the # of months of inventory to increase to 5.11 months using a 3-month trailing average.  This would put the Irvine market as a weak buyer's market, but when you dig a little deeper the big factor driving this increase is the every increasing supply of higher end homes ($1m+, especially over $1.5m).  If you were to look at just the homes under $1m, the months of inventory of homes is between 3-4 months which is a neutral market. 

As I mentioned last month, I had a handful of lower end buyers come off the sidelines in Jan/Feb (sub $800k buyers) because of the material drop in rates and softer prices.  I got most of them buyers into escrow into escrow in a short period of time as there were enough good inventory of homes to look at but I did encounter multiple offers situations on 3 of the homes that I made offers on in Irvine (again, sub $800k homes).  We were a bit surprised that these homes were getting multiples even though they were prices fairly reasonably.  I also noticed that the showing traffic at my Nectarine listing in Columbus Grove was also fairly sold and that's why were we able to get into escrow within a few weeks.  My take is that there were many other buyers in the low end of the market that came off the sidelines during the same time mine did.  However, the fact remains that if a home is overpriced and/or doesn't show well (whether it's a lower end home or not) it will sit on the market. 

From an interest rate perspective, interest rates continued to bleed lower in February with some lenders offering a 30-year rate at 3.875% and a 7-year ARM rate at 3.25%. The weaker than expected Jobs numbers released on March 11th might have pushed rates down even a bit lower.  I believe that rates coming down is putting somewhat of a floor on the lower end home prices as affordability for buyers who are sensitive to interest rates and monthly payments.  It'll be curious to see how much lower rates can go, but the lower they go the more lower end buyers will be apt to look to buy a home given that the job market is still very strong. 

 

[usctrojancpa]

Here's a few 10-year charts to put things into perspective for active listings, home sales, median price per SF, and days on market...

 

[the.irvine]

If you have data in the excel,it would be cool to the correlation

 

[irvineband]

It's that time again...to post up some data with the attached excel file and analysis on what happened in the previous month.  Sales came in at 139 homes in the month of February 2019 or 14% higher than January 2019 but a whopping 16% lower than February 2018.  The medium price per SF from a year-over-year basis decreased by 1.3% for the first time January 2015.  Keep in mind that the February closings were for the most part escrows that opened in December and January right before interest rates started dropping.  The number of active listings increased by 54 homes from the end of January to the end of February but increased by a whopping 359 homes from the end of February 2018 (I added 2 additional columns in my file to show the YOY change and % change in the inventory level at the end of each month).  This increase in inventory caused the # of months of inventory to increase to 5.11 months using a 3-month trailing average.  This would put the Irvine market as a weak buyer's market, but when you dig a little deeper the big factor driving this increase is the every increasing supply of higher end homes ($1m+, especially over $1.5m).  If you were to look at just the homes under $1m, the months of inventory of homes is between 3-4 months which is a neutral market. 

As I mentioned last month, I had a handful of lower end buyers come off the sidelines in Jan/Feb (sub $800k buyers) because of the material drop in rates and softer prices.  I got most of them buyers into escrow into escrow in a short period of time as there were enough good inventory of homes to look at but I did encounter multiple offers situations on 3 of the homes that I made offers on in Irvine (again, sub $800k homes).  We were a bit surprised that these homes were getting multiples even though they were prices fairly reasonably.  I also noticed that the showing traffic at my Nectarine listing in Columbus Grove was also fairly sold and that's why were we able to get into escrow within a few weeks.  My take is that there were many other buyers in the low end of the market that came off the sidelines during the same time mine did.  However, the fact remains that if a home is overpriced and/or doesn't show well (whether it's a lower end home or not) it will sit on the market. 

From an interest rate perspective, interest rates continued to bleed lower in February with some lenders offering a 30-year rate at 3.875% and a 7-year ARM rate at 3.25%. The weaker than expected Jobs numbers released on March 11th might have pushed rates down even a bit lower.  I believe that rates coming down is putting somewhat of a floor on the lower end home prices as affordability for buyers who are sensitive to interest rates and monthly payments.  It'll be curious to see how much lower rates can go, but the lower they go the more lower end buyers will be apt to look to buy a home given that the job market is still very strong.

This is awesome! Is there a way to break this down further? I haven?t seen much sfr for sale in woodbridge. At present I think there are only 4-5 for sale 1-1.25mil and 1 house under a 1.0m. That seems like very little? Also 7 homes above 1.3.

 

[usctrojancpa]

If you have data in the excel,it would be cool to the correlation

Which additional data would you want to see in my excel schedule?