Macro Economics and Personal Finance

In 2023, 4.09 million existing homes were sold, the fewest since 1995. I believe that home transactions in 2024 will be similar to that of 2009.

2008 4.13 2023 4.09
2009 4.34 2024 4.30
2010 4.18 2025 4.18
2011 4.26 2026 4.26
2012 4.66 2027 4.66
 
panda said:
Looks like there will be a delay on rate cuts.

CPI Report News Today: March Inflation Comes In Hot, Dashing Hopes for Fed to Cut Rates

The March consumer price index data, released today, showed inflation rose to a 3.5% pace year over year, faster than February's 3.2% rate. The core data exceeded expectations too. The news is likely to delay interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
www.barrons.com www.barrons.com
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I think I've been the only one saying that we weren't near rate cuts any time soon in 2023. My gut tells me inflation is way too sticky to lower rates anytime soon. I'll be surprised if we even see any cut this year unless a black swan event occurs.
 
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The stock market is at its all time high and Powell is telling us that he will cut 3 times in 2024? What in the world is the Fed Chairman smoking? Panda understands Real economics, not Bidenomics with fake unemployment data.

Stock market crashed in March 2009, Fed will keep the rates high throughout 2024 and will be forced to cut with a 30% sudden drop.
 
panda said:
In 2023, 4.09 million existing homes were sold, the fewest since 1995. I believe that home transactions in 2024 will be similar to that of 2009.

2008 4.13 2023 4.09
2009 4.34 2024 4.30
2010 4.18 2025 4.18
2011 4.26 2026 4.26
2012 4.66 2027 4.66
Click to expand...
Rates and inventory.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Rates and inventory.
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Total Home transactions in the US. 4.09 = 4 million. I think 2008 - 2012 will look similar to the transaction volume from 2023 - 2027. 2023 Transactions where the lowest since 1990s. 2024 should be only slightly better.

housing.jpg
 
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Monthly Supply of New Homes in the United States on the Rise.

Although real estate markets are localized, and national trends may not represent what's happening in your area, there's value in looking at the national housing market. One way to look at the overall economic health is the housing supply.

Housing Supply is sometimes referred to as housing inventory or day on the market (DOM), and is the average amount of time it takes to sell a house in a particular market. The more demand there is for housing, the less time a typical house stays on the market for sale before being put under contract.

On average, housing supply accross the country is around 6 month. When supply drops below 6 months, there's more than average housing demand (the housing market is strong). Then supply increases above 6 monhts, there's less than average housing demand (the housing market is showing signs of weakness) This is how things used before the pandemic in March 2020.

We currently have high borrowing costs (high mortgage rates) and high home prices across the nation.

inventory.jpghousingstarts.jpg
 
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panda said:
Total Home transactions in the US. 4.09 = 4 million. I think 2008 - 2012 will look similar to the transaction volume from 2023 - 2027.
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Nothing is 100% predictable in real estate... too many non-fundamental variables.

You can check TI history to see how many times people were wrong.
 
I don't think the reason Chairman Powell cuts rates will be due to inflation numbers headed towards 2%. Fed will continue to prolong the cut and will not cut by choice. They will be forced to cut when a sudden black swan event takes place.

inflation.jpg
 
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Orange County Unemployment Rate is 4.2% and will soon head to 5%. This is a very important metrics to watch. Even more important than inventory and interest rates. Look at time frame from 2008 - 2010 and see how the unemployment rate spiked. Fed had cut rates down to almost 0 back then. I don't believe that honest unemployment numbers are being reported.

uem.jpg
 
Notice that it takes approximately 12 months from the bottom of the yield curve before recession hits ( indicated by gray bar) in 2001 and 2008. If this repeats,the famine will begin around July 2024. I see the gray bar will be wider and longer in the coming recession.

I am telling you guys this because I want you guys to prepare for the financial storm that is coming.

fred.jpg
 
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The Fed will not cut rates in the Apr/May meeting and June meeting. The Fed raised rates too late to fight inflation. They will again start to cut rates too late. They will not cut because the inflation is headed towards 2%, but will be forced to cut. Welcome to Bidenomics, a broken economy with fake economic and unemployment numbers that doesn't seem to make sense.

Fed Meetings:

Apr/May 30-1
June 11-12
July 30-31
Sept 17-18
Nov 6-7
Dec 17-18
 
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