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  1. sgip

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    The The only way forward is the quality of your Realtor. A strong, well connected Realtor through the crafting of a solid offer, one who pre-resolves stumbling blocks with the listing agent prior to your offer being submitted, can often get an FHA/VA, even a Bond Loan purchase accepted by a...
  2. sgip

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    In some ways. Wells for many years said they would fund FHA and VA loans at a 620 FICO minimum. In early 2023 that dropped to 580. (Not sure where they are today) loanDepot has always done FHA/VA loans with low FICO scores so why advertise your specialized training and concierge service for...
  3. sgip

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    Government insured loans (FHA/VA) are essentially risk free to the lenders who write them. They are more valuable to investors and servicing companies who will pay a larger premium for this level of security of return. A bank might find 5k in value on a $100k conventional loan, but $15k or more...
  4. sgip

    Irvine Blvd - Toll brothers - pre-selling

    Let's check back in 18-24 months and see... I'm thinking that no matter the MR/HOA/price or those wretched 3 story floorplans, it it's within the borders of IUSD, anything will sell and at a premium.
  5. sgip

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    Even areas outside of Irvine are dominated by cash buyers according to the Realtors I've spoken with lately. Investor buys come in second, with financed pulling up in third place. As a note, VA and FHA loans have significant value to lenders, almost 3x the income of a conventional loan. Wells...
  6. sgip

    Funny things Joe says...

    Memory holing is a tried and true socialist tactic. Nothing here to see, comrade.
  7. sgip

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    Steven Thomas's data is often more junk than science. How 2017-2019 compares to our market 5 years later is incomprehensible. If anything a 2020-2023 average would be more appropriate.
  8. sgip

    Housing Analysis

    Interesting story on insurance issues impacting Florida sales. We here in Cali are just beginning to see what insurance problems can really do to a market. https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-march-2024/
  9. sgip

    FY25 proposal to Capital Gains?

    From the Forbes article: "Biden administration’s main capital gains rate increase, and only apply to those individuals with taxable income above $1 million and investment income above $400,000. That isn’t quite as cataclysmic a policy shift as referring to a blanket 44.6% long-term capital...
  10. sgip

    EV/Plug-in/Other vehicles

    These vehicles are trailer queens, never to see any more dirt on them that a quality detailer can't take off in a single wash. Terrible on the asphalt and tires of course, and God bless any souls these heavyweights happen to T-Bone, but hey, they're doing their part to combat climate change so...
  11. sgip

    Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

    Bought at $100k under list. Sold at $90k over list. Given the "gingerbreading" done to the property (no significant improvements like SF/Solar/yardwork, etc) that probably ran under $200k, Shuyin Investments, LLC did well, netting about $500k or so after every possible expense. MAX ROI!! BAY BEEE
  12. sgip

    EV/Plug-in/Other vehicles

    Who will weigh more? Hummer EV (about 5 tons or 2.5 Model 3's) Range Rover EV (3.8 tons ICE, EV-TBD) Mercedes EV. (3 tons TBD Estimated) My guess is the Hummer EV will continue to outweigh any passenger car on the road, but the G-Wagon might come pretty close. Imagine what a RR Cullinan EV...
  13. sgip

    EV/Plug-in/Other vehicles

    Given the systemic reliability issues Rovers are famous for, I'd be very cautious as a 1st gen buyer. As it's been said before: "The only reason why the English have never built a electric vehicle is because they couldn't figure out how to make it leak oil."
  14. sgip

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    Thanks @Querty! Great stuff here! I view the $127,875 not as 5.1% of the sales price, but 12.8% of your $1m profits! The net from sale, assuming the mortgage is paid down to $875,000 would be $872,125 ($1.125m equity from sale, less closing costs - $125,000 and taxes - $127,875 equals...
  15. sgip

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    @qwerty Thanks for the number run. Assuming a 2019 $1.5m purchase using a $1m mortgage ($500k down), and a $2.5m sale, what would the current estimated tax penalty be? I'm using a 3.0% 30 yr fixed at origination so about an $878k balance as of today. My guess is that this is closer to the...
  16. sgip

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    If a seller nets more cash from their sale due to higher capital gains exemptions, the resulting higher down payment will mute the impact of higher rates - assuming the seller buys another home promptly. Some might want to wait for lower rates/prices to appear before stepping back into housing...
  17. sgip

    How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

    VA, FHA, and ARM loans (Conventional and Portfolio) are all assumable. It would be legally impossible to make all 2019-2021 fixed rate loans in the 3's assumable. Bearing that in mind, the bigger "bang for the buck" in terms of opening up more inventory isn't necessarily lower rates. IMHO it...
  18. sgip

    Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

    RMV as the next Irvine??? That's some hardcore stuff realtors are sniffing to even hint about that kind of comparison. RMV is the furthest one can get from employment centers without needing to work in Lake Elsinore. Sure, it's new, and it's nice, but few retail options and a stranglehold of a...
  19. sgip

    Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

    Made me think of the lyrics to an old 1960's TV show.... They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning, No-one you see, is smarter than he...
  20. sgip

    Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

    My favorite listing is back for another turn of a rinse cycle. So.... last info in original post had the home listed for sale in January 2022 at $1.78M . It closed in March 2022 for $1.8M The home was listed again in June 2024 for $1.97M but removed a day later. Odd, but dare I say, this whole...
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