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At the pace things were going over the past few years I would agree, but homes are staying in the market konger, and builders are having to through in custom options.... And if China imposition of capital controls is even moderately effective, or their local housing bubble bursts...

In retrospect, I should have bought in Laguna Altura within the first year I moved down here from Alaska, but I like many others, was waiting for the other shoe to drop. We all know how that worked. That being said, I still didn't like the homes, or the large HOA fee, and am curious if anyone...

I mean, seriously, look at this @$$hole- https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/58-Livia-92618/home/45378806 Date        Event                  Price Jan 17, 2017 Listed (Active)            $1,849,000 Jun 25, 2013 Sold (Public Records)  $1,198,500 Trying to make over a 60% return, or 20%...

How sad... I bike through there on an almost daily basis. I don't trust any of the drivers, and just assume everyone is trying to hit me, and probably would if it didn't put a dent in their luxury vehicle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnjN6ITTynM

Everything has an apex, especially an economic cycle. #BoomBust https://vimeo.com/155878775

Agreed, and while I haven't seen a MASS exodus, I have seen TIC building a lot more apartments than homes, presumably for a reason.

Then I guess I will wait 'FOREVER'. I was poised to buy in Alaska, when prices were on par with SoCal in 2010, but high oil prices created high housing prices, but both bubbles have since popped. I have no idea what the catalyst for Irvine / SoCal will be, it could be Sino-US relations, Global...

You think if the market corrects they will just continue building? They would have built out by now if they didn't more or less completely stop building in 2008, and slowly start again in 2011. I just hate the way people create a false sense of urgency, it clouds normally reasonable ppl's...

I just biked up the Jeffrey Open Space Trail, through Portola, and around the Great Park to Irvine Blvd / Alton on Monday. Does everyone see how much land the Irvine Company still has to develop on? Don't be fooled into thinking that they are going to run out any time soon, we are at the top...

I think Zillow probably cancels out any progress that Redfin makes toward changing the old model of commissions in real estate. Specifically with their 'Zestimates' that are often garbage. I think an auction.com or FSBO type of venue will allow more direct real estate transactions. They just...

I have no idea what the next catalyst will be that causes a recession. But look at the track record in this country over the past two centuries- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States I think everyone has to concede that we have massive financial engineering going...

Agreed, I was only able to get them to not raise my rent once, and had to go down to the wire on not renewing my lease to the point where I had to be ready to move. That being said I moved to Irvine in 2011, and my rent started at $1980 for a 2br/ba in Cambria (the cheapest part of the village)...

Yeah, I wasn't suggesting that was a print out from your crystal ball, but rather any number of things that could happen. That being said,  I thought this persons post on 'Ten Reasons It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House' was good- https://patrick.net/?p=1282720&c=1301309...

I think @Soylent provided a decent list.

And IMHO, both those other buyers overpaid. I don't remember saying that just because this condo would lose value (essentially the entire 20% down) within the next year or two, that nobody else went and did something equally stupid with the purchase of a similar home this summer. But I guess...

Case in point, here is a comp (2br/1.5ba/1100sqft) on the same street that last sold for $400k, that has been on the market since June for $550- http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Irvine-CA-92620/79812609_zpid/96954_rid Doesn't seem like there was a greater fool, and it will probably get...

And FWIW, I could have bought in 2012 after moving here from Alaska, but wasn't in a hurry and like many didn't expect the FED to re-inflate the housing bubble at all costs. I was looking in Laguna Beach, and at Laguna Altura, but didn't like the idea of a gated community in Irvine (kind of...

I am paying about $2100 for a 2br/2ba there, so I don't know what to say about the prices on their website. I know I have negotiated with them at every renewal, starting in 2011 when I was paying $1980/month. What I do know is that when everyone thinks its a great time to buy, and interest...

Historical precedent. Usually during an election year the 7-10 year housing / stock market corrects, since they are pulling out all the stops to keep the economy looking good so they can pass the torch to the next (d)/(r) administration. The only reason home prices have appreciated is with low...

Historically, every 7-10 years there has been a bubble in SoCal realestate going back since we got off the gold standard over 40 years ago. We are now 7-8 years out from the last crash, and have probably less than 3 years before the next >30% correction. Unless more companies that give stock...