Trading Apple

so_scared said:
There is a great site where people share ideas and strategies on how to trade apple stock...including historical trends and earnings estimates.
http://aapltrading.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=news

Posters are very helpful and open. In case anyone is interested, thought I would share.
Apple stock looks to be a bit broken, can't seem to get past $395.  I think it'll trade in a range where you can short around $395ish and buy around $360ish.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
so_scared said:
There is a great site where people share ideas and strategies on how to trade apple stock...including historical trends and earnings estimates.
http://aapltrading.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=news

Posters are very helpful and open. In case anyone is interested, thought I would share.
Apple stock looks to be a bit broken, can't seem to get past $395.  I think it'll trade in a range where you can short around $395ish and buy around $360ish.

Well SPX is range bound and apple is such a big weighting in it. The theory that most of the posters there talk about is that it will stay range bound until 4 to 6 weeks before earnings and then will have a pre-earnings run up, which has happened in past quarters.

Current apple "street" estimates are below apple's own guidance numbers which are conservative to start with.

We will see how it does but if they are selling 4S as fast as they can make it, then this quarter will be monstrous in terms of earnings and gross margin as well as profit since so many overseas markets (lower marginal tax rate) launched 4S earlier than 4 did last year.
 
Yeah... ever since my bet with graphrix I've noticed that same trend with AAPL.

You can even use the dates of product releases to time trades which is another reason why people want to know so much about the next iThing before it releases.

After Jobs died was a good time to get in (apologies if not PC).

The stock will rise on the iPad 3 release... and the iPhone 5 release will go bonkers. If you just want to buy and hold (instead of USC's Vegas style)... anytime before those two products come out may be recommended.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
so_scared said:
There is a great site where people share ideas and strategies on how to trade apple stock...including historical trends and earnings estimates.
http://aapltrading.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=news

Posters are very helpful and open. In case anyone is interested, thought I would share.
Apple stock looks to be a bit broken, can't seem to get past $395.  I think it'll trade in a range where you can short around $395ish and buy around $360ish.

One of the posters actually mentioned that TDST (a technical indicator) is actually at 373 and it has bounced off that 12 of 14 times. So might not get down to 360s which is the 200 DMA.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Yeah... ever since my bet with graphrix I've noticed that same trend with AAPL.

You can even use the dates of product releases to time trades which is another reason why people want to know so much about the next iThing before it releases.

After Jobs died was a good time to get in (apologies if not PC).

The stock will rise on the iPad 3 release... and the iPhone 5 release will go bonkers. If you just want to buy and hold (instead of USC's Vegas style)... anytime before those two products come out may be recommended.

don't forget the supposedly magic TV which everyone speculates is coming in 2012.

Valuation wise, it is pretty ridiculous how cheap apple is. In 3 years, they will have enough cash on hand to buy the entire company out. lol.

here is another source that is widely followed.

Apple: The Most Undervalued Large-Cap Stock in America (http://bullishcross.com/)

 
irvinehomeowner said:
Yeah... ever since my bet with graphrix I've noticed that same trend with AAPL.

You can even use the dates of product releases to time trades which is another reason why people want to know so much about the next iThing before it releases.

After Jobs died was a good time to get in (apologies if not PC).

The stock will rise on the iPad 3 release... and the iPhone 5 release will go bonkers. If you just want to buy and hold (instead of USC's Vegas style)... anytime before those two products come out may be recommended.
I call those short term trades....rentals.  haha  I mainly stick to options trading on indexes though, I'll dabble with buying and shorting stocks here and there. 
 
so_scared said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Yeah... ever since my bet with graphrix I've noticed that same trend with AAPL.

You can even use the dates of product releases to time trades which is another reason why people want to know so much about the next iThing before it releases.

After Jobs died was a good time to get in (apologies if not PC).

The stock will rise on the iPad 3 release... and the iPhone 5 release will go bonkers. If you just want to buy and hold (instead of USC's Vegas style)... anytime before those two products come out may be recommended.

don't forget the supposedly magic TV which everyone speculates is coming in 2012.

Valuation wise, it is pretty ridiculous how cheap apple is. In 3 years, they will have enough cash on hand to buy the entire company out. lol.

here is another source that is widely followed.

Apple: The Most Undervalued Large-Cap Stock in America (http://bullishcross.com/)
I actually like Google as a longer term hold more than Apple. 
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
I actually like Google as a longer term hold more than Apple.

Goog is a great company. Not sure that they have as defensible their position is in terms of brand. Not sure of any tech long term. Sony sure looked dominant when they had walkman and yhoo when they dominated search.

In terms of absolute valuation metrics, I think apple is a better "value" in terms of PE, PEG, growth rates, etc.
 
so_scared said:
nice run through today...albeit low volume. Hopefully this is beginning of pre-earnings run!
I'd slowly be shortly into strength (with a somewhat tight stop), especially as it gets around $409ish.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
so_scared said:
nice run through today...albeit low volume. Hopefully this is beginning of pre-earnings run!
I'd slowly be shortly into strength (with a somewhat tight stop), especially as it gets around $409ish.

I actually re-established my short legs today. Had a nice run from 370ish when I covered the short legs.
 
Nice play, just make sure to use a stop just in case.  I think next week or the week after you can initial a Feb/March VIX calendar call spread too....you aren't getting enough premium in the Jan calls to do a Jan/Feb spread.  I'm selling the weekly VXX calls this and last week, but I'm a little upset that TD bumped up my margin requirement for selling nakes VXX calls.  >:D  I'm considering moving my trading over to Options House where the pricing is better anyhow.
 
Big earnings announcement... I haven't looked at AAPL lately... was shocked to see it in the 420s.

Even NFLX is in the 90s now.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Big earnings announcement... I haven't looked at AAPL lately... was shocked to see it in the 420s.

Even NFLX is in the 90s now.
Apple above $450 in after hours trading.  I had a feeling they'd blow this quarter out after a so-so quarter last time.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
A so-so quarter for Apple is huge for many other companies.

i[anything] = $$$
Nice blowout earnings for Apple are just fine with me since I sold VIX calls for Feb.  ;)
 
$530 now... if you bought a month ago... you already are up $50+ a share.

Wonder how much higher it will go after March 16 when the iPad lines are all over the news again.
 
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