Burn That Belly
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March Home Prices Up 8.9% nationwide, biggest increase in four years
- Thread starter Burn That Belly
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Burn That Belly said:
Anytime I think about how expensive RE is becoming here, I think to those other areas and realize it could be worse, haha. All the new home inventory down here actually helps prices from spiraling out of control.
1 mil in SF buys you maybe 1000 sq ft. Maybe. And it's likely a fairly old home that'll need maintenance, etc...
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
qwerty said:
Word.
Or should I say qwerd.
paperboyNC
New member
OCLuvr said:
My prediction is that housing prices will continue to rise until the next economic recession. There isn't any obvious triggers for a recession as there are no obscene asset bubbles (even tech is fairly reasonable) and there are no huge sources of debt driven demand to bust.
People seem pretty cautious now and recessions tend to come when no one expects them.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
paperboyNC said:
Ex-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan: 'We are in a bond market bubble' that's beginning to unwind
"We are in a bond market bubble" that's beginning to unwind, he said on "Squawk on the Street," as new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appeared on Capitol Hill for the second time this week. "Prices are too high" on bonds, Greenspan added. Bond prices move inversely to bond yields, which spiked higher in the new year, recently hitting four-year highs of just under 3 percent.
Greenspan is in good company in predicting a bond price bubble.
Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, in an interview with Goldman Sachs, predicted a rise in inflation and a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield. Noted bond investor Bill Gross recently said the bear market in bond prices has begun. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday he believes long-term investors should buy stocks over bonds.
paperboyNC said:
+1
This is the most brief and logical argument I have seen on this and related topics
Lot of experts who make " bubble" prognostications are ultimately not held accountable when they are wrong . There is no feedback loop.
bill Gross was famously wrong in 2011 , greenspan himself had no clue in 2000s as to what really was going on ... one is still managing lots of $$$ and the other collecting $$$ speaking fees
reason being, they have no skin in the game
Liar Loan
Well-known member
fortune11 said:
Bubbles tend to last longer than anybody thinks possible due to the irrational exuberance involved. This leads to lots of experts calling a bubble early and then getting flogged in the media when their predictions don't come true right away. All of this is actually noise though.
A bubble isn't defined by when it pops. It is defined by how irrational prices have gotten.
The bond market is the most overpriced it has ever been (down slightly from the highs now). In Europe, they were actually paying negative yields, meaning it cost investors money to hold bonds. That is insane.
The thing is we've been in this environment for about 10 years now, and many people have called a bubble, only to see yields go even lower and their reputations ruined. Now that everybody has been wrong at least once, they've given up trying to call it, and are just enjoying the fat returns from stocks and real estate it has created.
Everybody is complacent now.
In the long run ... we are all dead anyways
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
Timing matters in everything in life. A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble ?
Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years ? sit around in cash and not own a home ?
see where this logic takes you ?
Burn That Belly
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Burn That Belly
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Liar Loan said:
again more buzzwords and copy and paste from financial textbooks (this one is from Benjamin graham ?) - this is why a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing if you start believe your own ___
Paying top dollar for a home in 2012 or 2013 was a lot better than getting a home after haggling the best price in 2018 .
What was optimal ? Just scooping up all the inventory you could find in 2013 without regards to pinching pennies or trying to gain the optimal price for a home now .
We hit 3% on 10y treasury in 2013 -- was that optimal level ? or was the 1.4% in 2016 optimal ? is 3% now optimal ?
You cannot invest based on buzzwords ...when you hear them without specifics, run as far away as you can
Liar Loan
Well-known member
fortune11 said:Liar Loan said:
again more buzzwords and copy and paste from financial textbooks (this one is from Benjamin graham ?) - this is why a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing if you start believe your own ___
Paying top dollar for a home in 2012 or 2013 was a lot better than getting a home after haggling the best price in 2018 .
What was optimal ? Just scooping up all the inventory you could find in 2013 without regards to pinching pennies or trying to gain the optimal price for a home now .
We hit 3% on 10y treasury in 2013 -- was that optimal level ? or was the 1.4% in 2016 optimal ? is 3% now optimal ?
You cannot invest based on buzzwords ...when you hear them without specifics, run as far away as you can
Yep, it's all so confusing for you.