Author Topic: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?  (Read 8642 times)

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Offline Halos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #75 on: February 10, 2018, 03:27:10 PM »
Looks like the market is ready to pull the trigger at 8K if it drops.


Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #76 on: February 12, 2018, 11:17:17 AM »
Think of it this way.  If government currencies didn't exist and they were all privately created, would you rather use a currency created by Warren Buffett, or the currency of some 21 year old tech bro that lives in a filthy dorm in San Francisco?  Who would be more likely to dilute the currency for personal gain?

It wouldn't work that way in reality.

It would go back to the barter and trade days. Don't you watch post apocalyptic movies? Drinkable water would become the new bitcoin. :)

It has worked that way in the past.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_currency#Private_bank_notes

In the United States, the Free Banking Era lasted between 1837 and 1866, when almost anyone could issue paper money. States, municipalities, private banks, railroad and construction companies, stores, restaurants, churches and individuals printed an estimated 8,000 different types of money by 1860. If an issuer went bankrupt, closed, left town, or otherwise went out of business, the note would be worthless.


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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #77 on: February 12, 2018, 11:40:14 AM »
Think of it this way.  If government currencies didn't exist and they were all privately created, would you rather use a currency created by Warren Buffett, or the currency of some 21 year old tech bro that lives in a filthy dorm in San Francisco?  Who would be more likely to dilute the currency for personal gain?

It wouldn't work that way in reality.

It would go back to the barter and trade days. Don't you watch post apocalyptic movies? Drinkable water would become the new bitcoin. :)

It has worked that way in the past.


I don't think it would work that way if the meteor/zombie virus/nuclear warhead hit today.

A value system would need to be established locally/regionally/countrywide and that would have to be based on goods that have utility value initially.

A new paper currency system would not emerge until much later.

But I forget you don't watch much TV so you may not watch Fear The Walking Dead or any Mad Max movie. :)
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #78 on: February 12, 2018, 11:54:00 AM »
Think of it this way.  If government currencies didn't exist and they were all privately created, would you rather use a currency created by Warren Buffett, or the currency of some 21 year old tech bro that lives in a filthy dorm in San Francisco?  Who would be more likely to dilute the currency for personal gain?

It wouldn't work that way in reality.

It would go back to the barter and trade days. Don't you watch post apocalyptic movies? Drinkable water would become the new bitcoin. :)

It has worked that way in the past.


I don't think it would work that way if the meteor/zombie virus/nuclear warhead hit today.

A value system would need to be established locally/regionally/countrywide and that would have to be based on goods that have utility value initially.

A new paper currency system would not emerge until much later.

But I forget you don't watch much TV so you may not watch Fear The Walking Dead or any Mad Max movie. :)

I haven't seen either of those, but yeah in the event of societal breakdown either barter and trade, or precious metals would be the default.

Offline fortune11

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #79 on: February 12, 2018, 02:19:18 PM »
Following this crypto and blockchain craze for some time now and while I get the concept , still cant get my arms around why is it not taking off yet . 

I mean if this thing was really that useful,  you would see geeks and techies quietly installing this technology and putting it to work stealthily  just to get stuff done. I saw it happen all the time back int he 90s with internet tech. 

All I see is big announcements and launches and consortium this and consortium that and ICOs and what not - exactly the type of stuff that should not be happening and feels more like a "check the box " thing so many CTOs can make their bosses go away and tell their  boards, hey we are also cool with this stuff.

mining etc cost thousands of $$ in money and their is no intrinsic value - so unless someone , somewhere is getting very good returns on their investment with this thing, feels very flaky. 

I am not the type to be dismissive of new things automatically  but I would have liked to see more "underground " progress here in terms of applicability , which I just don't. Maybe someone can educate me.

Offline Kings

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #80 on: February 12, 2018, 02:52:46 PM »

Offline Halos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #81 on: February 12, 2018, 08:51:32 PM »
Following this crypto and blockchain craze for some time now and while I get the concept , still cant get my arms around why is it not taking off yet . 

I mean if this thing was really that useful,  you would see geeks and techies quietly installing this technology and putting it to work stealthily  just to get stuff done. I saw it happen all the time back int he 90s with internet tech. 

All I see is big announcements and launches and consortium this and consortium that and ICOs and what not - exactly the type of stuff that should not be happening and feels more like a "check the box " thing so many CTOs can make their bosses go away and tell their  boards, hey we are also cool with this stuff.

mining etc cost thousands of $$ in money and their is no intrinsic value - so unless someone , somewhere is getting very good returns on their investment with this thing, feels very flaky. 

I am not the type to be dismissive of new things automatically  but I would have liked to see more "underground " progress here in terms of applicability , which I just don't. Maybe someone can educate me.

Cryptography and distributed ledger technology is a lot more difficult to comprehend (let alone implement) than HTML :o

Also, I think we tend to look back at the internet as happening a lot faster than it actually did. When we could first access the internet (say 94-95) it was nothing more than a bunch of chat rooms. That was it, literally...chat rooms. That lasted for about 2-3 years before we saw better applications come online, such as fantasy baseball on the internet, etc. The dot-com boom followed. We are currently in the equivalent of 1994.

"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

- Paul Krugman 1998
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 10:44:04 PM by Halos »

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #82 on: February 13, 2018, 09:25:13 AM »
"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

- Paul Krugman 1998

It's a good thing he has his job shilling for the Democrat party because he's made some atrocious calls over the years.

Offline fortune11

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #83 on: February 13, 2018, 08:32:47 PM »
Following this crypto and blockchain craze for some time now and while I get the concept , still cant get my arms around why is it not taking off yet . 

I mean if this thing was really that useful,  you would see geeks and techies quietly installing this technology and putting it to work stealthily  just to get stuff done. I saw it happen all the time back int he 90s with internet tech. 

All I see is big announcements and launches and consortium this and consortium that and ICOs and what not - exactly the type of stuff that should not be happening and feels more like a "check the box " thing so many CTOs can make their bosses go away and tell their  boards, hey we are also cool with this stuff.

mining etc cost thousands of $$ in money and their is no intrinsic value - so unless someone , somewhere is getting very good returns on their investment with this thing, feels very flaky. 

I am not the type to be dismissive of new things automatically  but I would have liked to see more "underground " progress here in terms of applicability , which I just don't. Maybe someone can educate me.

Cryptography and distributed ledger technology is a lot more difficult to comprehend (let alone implement) than HTML :o

Also, I think we tend to look back at the internet as happening a lot faster than it actually did. When we could first access the internet (say 94-95) it was nothing more than a bunch of chat rooms. That was it, literally...chat rooms. That lasted for about 2-3 years before we saw better applications come online, such as fantasy baseball on the internet, etc. The dot-com boom followed. We are currently in the equivalent of 1994.

"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

- Paul Krugman 1998


Yeah I get it, I was there using "pine" as my first email program (not sure many remember what that was). 

But internet did make things easier -- the protocol layer was the part which made things run smoothly and the application layer which came later made everything bloated and clunky (the grossest iteration of that is companies like facebook and google that are nothing but centralized aggregators)

Whereas bitcoin is all about the protocol layer itself and here is where I have problems -- the protocol  layer is an energy and efficiency hog.  maybe that will change.  but the need to update the entire blockchain each time which is what creates trust without centralized -- also limits its bandwidth. 

And as to Krugman, history is littered with people making wrong predictions all the time, he is just a good punching bag for people on the right .  Here are just a few a quick google search would reveal --


"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943


"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."

Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946


"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years."

Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955


"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."

Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977


"Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."

Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995


"Apple is already dead."

Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997


"Two years from now, spam will be solved."

Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004

Offline Halos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #84 on: February 13, 2018, 10:23:44 PM »
Following this crypto and blockchain craze for some time now and while I get the concept , still cant get my arms around why is it not taking off yet . 

I mean if this thing was really that useful,  you would see geeks and techies quietly installing this technology and putting it to work stealthily  just to get stuff done. I saw it happen all the time back int he 90s with internet tech. 

All I see is big announcements and launches and consortium this and consortium that and ICOs and what not - exactly the type of stuff that should not be happening and feels more like a "check the box " thing so many CTOs can make their bosses go away and tell their  boards, hey we are also cool with this stuff.

mining etc cost thousands of $$ in money and their is no intrinsic value - so unless someone , somewhere is getting very good returns on their investment with this thing, feels very flaky. 

I am not the type to be dismissive of new things automatically  but I would have liked to see more "underground " progress here in terms of applicability , which I just don't. Maybe someone can educate me.

Cryptography and distributed ledger technology is a lot more difficult to comprehend (let alone implement) than HTML :o

Also, I think we tend to look back at the internet as happening a lot faster than it actually did. When we could first access the internet (say 94-95) it was nothing more than a bunch of chat rooms. That was it, literally...chat rooms. That lasted for about 2-3 years before we saw better applications come online, such as fantasy baseball on the internet, etc. The dot-com boom followed. We are currently in the equivalent of 1994.

"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

- Paul Krugman 1998


Yeah I get it, I was there using "pine" as my first email program (not sure many remember what that was). 

But internet did make things easier -- the protocol layer was the part which made things run smoothly and the application layer which came later made everything bloated and clunky (the grossest iteration of that is companies like facebook and google that are nothing but centralized aggregators)

Whereas bitcoin is all about the protocol layer itself and here is where I have problems -- the protocol  layer is an energy and efficiency hog.  maybe that will change.  but the need to update the entire blockchain each time which is what creates trust without centralized -- also limits its bandwidth. 

And as to Krugman, history is littered with people making wrong predictions all the time, he is just a good punching bag for people on the right .  Here are just a few a quick google search would reveal --


"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943


"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."

Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946


"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years."

Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955


"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."

Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977


"Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."

Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995


"Apple is already dead."

Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997


"Two years from now, spam will be solved."

Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004

Funny quotes...haha.

Just like the internet, it all starts with something silly and evolves into much more
https://www.cryptokitties.co/

Not going to try and convince you about how awesome the future will be with the blockchain...haha...too much work, and I think you should come to your own conclusions.

And about Dr. Krugman, he should be considered a good punching bag for those of all political stripes.

Offline Halos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #85 on: February 13, 2018, 10:32:23 PM »
Update!

Lucky buying opportunity fellow Irvine residents!

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Offline OCLuvr

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #86 on: March 08, 2018, 09:45:28 PM »
What do we think now?

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #87 on: March 08, 2018, 10:28:40 PM »
Buy at $8.5k, sell at $11k.  Rinse, Wash, Repeat.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #88 on: March 09, 2018, 07:21:42 AM »
The idea of the blockchain and shared ledgers is great... what is suspect is the mining of coins and how those who got in first... or even created the first bitcoin were able to do so with less effort than today.

My spider sense also tingles when we don't really know who invented bitcoin and how much currency they have to begin with.

And like IPOs, there are so many ICOs going on... it's hard to tell what is legit or not.

I like the idea of the blockchain... just not this currency tied to it.
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Offline fortune11

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #89 on: March 11, 2018, 07:45:52 PM »
The idea of the blockchain and shared ledgers is great... what is suspect is the mining of coins and how those who got in first... or even created the first bitcoin were able to do so with less effort than today.

My spider sense also tingles when we don't really know who invented bitcoin and how much currency they have to begin with.

And like IPOs, there are so many ICOs going on... it's hard to tell what is legit or not.

I like the idea of the blockchain... just not this currency tied to it.

I did some digging on this for my own benefit and came to the conclusion that what makes the  blockchain secure is also what makes it inefficient

the so-called mathematical puzzles being solved are nothing but millions and millions of guessing games being played to get to the next hash outcome. But that onerous and laborious process  is also what makes blockchain " unhackable " for a single entity

If they were to make it more efficient to speed it up, then it is possible someone can find a way to optimize it (in other words " hack it ")  and right there the integrity of the entire blockchain collapses.

You cant have one without the other .  And this is why you have these computers wasting away power equivalent of small countries energy consumption 24 / 7. ....  it is simply not scalable without also making it open to hacking attacks . 

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