Author Topic: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?  (Read 670 times)

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Offline Liar Loan

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How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« on: November 29, 2017, 11:30:22 AM »
Bitcoin just gained another $1,000 in price hitting $11,000 this morning, before investors started cashing in their gains and driving the price lower.  The currency has gone up about 10x in value this year.




Similarly, in the year 1637 tulip bulb mania swept Holland and the price of bulbs increased by 10x or more before crashing spectacularly:




Here's how insane the Dutch tulip bubble was according to Investopedia:

Quote
Soon, prices were rising so fast and high that people were trading their land, life savings, and anything else they could liquidate to get more tulip bulbs. Many Dutch persisted in believing they would sell their hoard to hapless and unenlightened foreigners, thereby reaping enormous profits.

The part about selling to hapless foreigners reminds me of Irvine a little bit, but my question is how high does Bitcoin go before experiencing a similar crash?

Offline HMart

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2017, 11:34:39 AM »

Offline morekaos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2017, 11:44:00 AM »
Parabolic

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2017, 12:01:23 PM »
If you want to put your money where your mouth is... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-27/calling-a-bitcoin-top-here-s-how-you-can-short-the-digital-coin

Short selling isn't my thing.  I prefer to swoop in after a crash to scoop up assets that nobody else wants. 

Parabolic

My thought exactly.

Offline morekaos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2017, 12:07:37 PM »
This has every call sign of a mania.  True believers, no fundamentals, new and ingenious ways of justifying astronomical valuations, amateurs making zillions and tempting other fools into the greater fool loop.  It will last longer that people expect and the nay-sayers have to start questioning themselves...then it will collapse spectacularly!!!
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 12:13:20 PM by morekaos »

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2017, 12:24:06 PM »
This has every call sign of a mania.  True believers, no fundamentals, new and ingenious ways of justifying astronomical valuations, amateurs making zillions and tempting other fools into the greater fool loop.  It will last longer that people expect and the nay-sayers have to start questioning themselves...then it will collapse spectacularly!!!

When you start seeing it on the news and everywhere on Facebook then you'll know the time is near.  When it crashes, it'll be a show to see.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2017, 12:42:27 PM »
Once you see the Bitcoin naysayers being ridiculed as fools in the mainstream financial press, that's when I think the crash will occur.  At that point, when even the naysayers begin questioning their understanding of reality, there really are no buyers left.

Offline eyephone

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2017, 12:45:32 PM »
Ride the wave.

It’s Business! Leave the emotions at the door.

Offline morekaos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2017, 12:54:11 PM »
You really can look at the real estate wave from IHB.  It was more slow motion but even there some nay-sayers were weakening when the collapse finally came.

Offline eyephone

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2017, 01:04:32 PM »
My previously posts regarding bitcoin responses to Belly:

I guess you didn't get the memo regarding the hot crypto currencies. That's where people are investing.

There's always a risk. As long as you are aware of the risk.
It's like buying a house by plants that are sprayed with pesticides. Some people may not want to buy to live there and some do. (Buy at your own risk)  ;)

http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,15770.30.html





http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,15770.30.html


« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 08:57:46 PM by eyephone »

Offline morekaos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2017, 10:55:27 AM »
Maybe sooner than later


Bitcoin is already dwarfing some of the largest financial market bubbles of all time

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/bitcoin-dwarfing-some-of-the-largest-market-bubbles-of-all-time.html

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2017, 01:12:10 PM »
Well...this isn't a problem.

Quote
Bitcoin is in the "mania" phase, with some people even borrowing money to get in on the action, securities regulator Joseph Borg told CNBC on Monday.

"We've seen mortgages being taken out to buy bitcoin. … People do credit cards, equity lines," said Borg, president of the North American Securities Administrators Association, a voluntary organization devoted to investor protection. Borg is also director of the Alabama Securities Commission.

"This is not something a guy who's making $100,000 a year, who's got a mortgage and two kids in college ought to be invested in."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/11/people-are-taking-out-mortgages-to-buy-bitcoin-says-joseph-borg.html

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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2017, 01:00:13 PM »
First you need to define crash.

Is going from 13,000 to 6000 a crash?    13,000 back to 1000?

It's solidly the currency of choice (granted a lot of choices popping up) of the anti-goverment/blackmarket/prepper/hide your stuff from your having money unfriendly governments types.

Let's be honest, the local Ferrari dealer will take bitcoin. Well, used to at least, the volatility, like some well known game platforms may have lost their taste for being a platform of exchange for it.

So crash to nothing?  Only if an actual hack shows up, however if a hack shows up, suspect global ecommerce is in for a total sh*tstorm along with credit cards, debit cards.

Nutshell, there's a max of 21 million bitcoins (currently only around 16 million) and a rather large number of people that want to move money around via that channel such that only 16 million pieces of exchange is a rather nasty bottleneck.




Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2017, 01:09:38 PM »
Nutshell, there's a max of 21 million bitcoins (currently only around 16 million) and a rather large number of people that want to move money around via that channel such that only 16 million pieces of exchange is a rather nasty bottleneck.

I hear these numbers thrown around a lot by my friends that are into Bitcoin, but currently there are 800 different crypto-currencies in "circulation" so really the number of digital "coins" that can be mined is infinite.  These are just digital sets of 1's and 0's after all. 

Bitcoin's only real advantage is being first to market, as far as I can tell.

Offline morekaos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2017, 01:41:33 PM »
Myspace and Netscape got there first too.

 

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