TSLA anybody else shorting this stock into earnings

Park

New member
I've been a huge supporter of tesla by owning this stock for years.  But I was disappointed with the release of the model 3 and its premise that it will be the future mass market car.  It seems to me the production cost for the Model 3 will rise each year even though the gigafactory is supposed to reduce the battery cost. 
Perhaps the BMW 3 series, Audi 4, or mercedes C class buyers will buy into the model 3.  But I don't think the honda accord or toyota camry buyers will pay more to get into a Model 3. 
Finally, I read many reports that the Model S and X sales have basically plateaued suggesting growth is slowing. 
Hopefully I'm wrong, but i think its time to short this stock. 
 
Park said:
I've been a huge supporter of tesla by owning this stock for years.  But I was disappointed with the release of the model 3 and its premise that it will be the future mass market car.  It seems to me the production cost for the Model 3 will rise each year even though the gigafactory is supposed to reduce the battery cost. 
Perhaps the BMW 3 series, Audi 4, or mercedes C class buyers will buy into the model 3.  But I don't think the honda accord or toyota camry buyers will pay more to get into a Model 3. 
Finally, I read many reports that the Model S and X sales have basically plateaued suggesting growth is slowing. 
Hopefully I'm wrong, but i think its time to short this stock.

While I agree with shorting the stock short term, I think the model 3 is a game changer. Is the 500k reservations real?  I think people that buy the high end accords and Camry will buy into this. The numbers along with rebate works out.
 
By the time you add some basic features--such as, self driving, 310miles per charge etc--you are looking at $50k. Not sure accord/Camry guy will buy this.
My 2 cents.
 
OCLuvr said:
By the time you add some basic features--such as, self driving, 310miles per charge etc--you are looking at $50k. Not sure accord/Camry guy will buy this.
My 2 cents.

Camry/Accord guy will not be doing that.  As Elon said, most people will just be doing the premium pack with paint/wheels upgrade. 

Correct me if I'm wrong:

35K plus probable upgrades (5K premium pack, paint, possibly wheels) = $42K or so
Minus rebate 7500?

After taxes it's in the high 30s plus the electric savings long term.  Pretty good.
 
Plus another 3500 CA rebate or 5500 with income under $70-80k/yr for a family of 4-5.

Also a $450 SCE rebate.

$35,000 minus $7,500 minus $5,500 minus $450 equals 21,550
 
paperboyNC said:
Plus another 3500 CA rebate or 5500 with income under $70-80k/yr for a family of 4-5.

Also a $450 SCE rebate.

$35,000 minus $7,500 minus $5,500 minus $450 equals 21,550

As of June 30, 2017, only qualified lower-income applicants get the CA rebate. 
 
paperboyNC said:
Plus another 3500 CA rebate or 5500 with income under $70-80k/yr for a family of 4-5.

Also a $450 SCE rebate.

$35,000 minus $7,500 minus $5,500 minus $450 equals 21,550

Who the heck is buying this with a family of 4 and income under $80k!?  I'm sorry that person needs a $15k used sedan.
 
aquabliss said:
paperboyNC said:
Plus another 3500 CA rebate or 5500 with income under $70-80k/yr for a family of 4-5.

Also a $450 SCE rebate.

$35,000 minus $7,500 minus $5,500 minus $450 equals 21,550

Who the heck is buying this with a family of 4 and income under $80k!?  I'm sorry that person needs a $15k used sedan.

They might be getting cars like the leaf.
 
The CA rebate for the Teslas was $2500, not $3500.

And yes, currently only lower income families can get the rebate, everyone else is on a waitlist until CA gets more funding (I think morekaos posted a link to a more generous proposal by Brown).

Say CA just goes to $2500, with the Fed credit of $7500, if you don't option, $25k for a Tesla 3 is pretty good. Anyone buying BMWs or Lexus coupes will certainly jump on that. If they do a Tesla Y for $45k ($35k with rebates), many smaller SUV buyers would buy that too.
 
aquabliss said:
paperboyNC said:
Plus another 3500 CA rebate or 5500 with income under $70-80k/yr for a family of 4-5.

Also a $450 SCE rebate.

$35,000 minus $7,500 minus $5,500 minus $450 equals 21,550

Who the heck is buying this with a family of 4 and income under $80k!?  I'm sorry that person needs a $15k used sedan.

That depends on what your expenses are.

I know someone who is (and has been for years) in section 8 housing in Irvine, two high school kids who are home schooled. Both parents go to college, tuition free, get food stamps, reduced electric bills etc. They had three kids but one moved out (soon as they got their own section 8 housing) with his girl friend who is a nanny to three families (part time for each) and makes over $25 an hour cash. So much for the huge wait list for them.

The two high schoolers will surely also go tuition free.

Bet they could "afford" that tesla....... somehow along with the designer hand bags she carries around.
 
aquabliss said:
paperboyNC said:
Plus another 3500 CA rebate or 5500 with income under $70-80k/yr for a family of 4-5.

Also a $450 SCE rebate.

$35,000 minus $7,500 minus $5,500 minus $450 equals 21,550

Who the heck is buying this with a family of 4 and income under $80k!?  I'm sorry that person needs a $15k used sedan.

First of all, it would be much smarter to buy a Tesla 3 than a $15k used sedan. You could probably sell your Tesla in a year for a profit, especially if you qualified for every rebate.

Second, taxable income is far from the only equation. Plenty of people have wealth without income, or income from their family that is not taxable.
 
aquabliss said:
paperboyNC said:
Plus another 3500 CA rebate or 5500 with income under $70-80k/yr for a family of 4-5.

Also a $450 SCE rebate.

$35,000 minus $7,500 minus $5,500 minus $450 equals 21,550

Who the heck is buying this with a family of 4 and income under $80k!?  I'm sorry that person needs a $15k used sedan.

That's why there are 72 to 84 month auto loan for those cash-strapped and financially illiterate. 

 
This should bolster the confidence of short sellers:

Tesla seeks $1.5 billion junk bond issue to fund Model 3 production

DETROIT (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) said on Monday it would raise about $1.5 billion through its first-ever offering of junk bonds as the U.S. luxury electric car maker seeks fresh sources of cash to ramp up production of its new Model 3 sedan.

The move to issue junk bonds - lower-quality investments that offer higher yields - represents a bet by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk that bond investors will be as hungry as stock investors to back the company on expectations that its Model 3 will be a hit.

Tesla shares are up 67 percent this year, pushing the company's market value to about $60 billion, above that of top U.S. automakers General Motors Co (GM.N) and Ford Motor Co (F.N), even though Tesla has yet to make an annual profit.

Following the announcement, Standard & Poor's reaffirmed its negative outlook for the automaker and assigned a "B-" rating for the bond issue - deep into junk credit territory. S&P also maintained its "B-" long-term corporate credit rating on Tesla.

"We could lower our ratings on Tesla if execution issues related to the Model 3 launch later this year or the ongoing expansion of its Models S and X production lead to significant cost overruns," S&P said in a statement on the bonds.

Moody's assigned a junk "B3" rating to the bond issue and said the company's rating outlook was stable.

The rating agency said the overall company's "B2" rating was supported by the fact that if Tesla ends up in serious financial trouble, its brand name, products and physical assets would be of "considerable value" to other automakers.

CFRA equity analyst Efraim Levy said the bonds provide Tesla with funds "at least into mid-2018."

"There is a risk they could still run out of money," he said. "Then you?d go back to the equity markets and hope it?s not too late" to raise more money.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-offering-idUSKBN1AN13I?feedType=RSS&feedName=newsOne&google_editors_picks=true

So to summarize, a wide variety of people on Wallstreet including Moodys, equity analysts, and prominent hedge funds think Tesla is at risk of going bankrupt, yet the stock price is up 67% this year and the market cap makes Tesla more valuable then General Motors, which sells 10x the vehicles.

This stock has a late-90's tech valuation.  None of the other 20 companies developing electric vehicles has this kind of valuation.  It's complete speculation to bet on Tesla with no chance of profit, probably ever.

Let me be the first to say that I think Elon Musk will go down in history as a kind of PT Barnum-like character; Somebody that was able to capture the imagination of audiences, while tricking them out of their hard-earned money.
 
Liar Loan said:
Let me be the first to say that I think Elon Musk will go down in history as a kind of PT Barnum-like character; Somebody that was able to capture the imagination of audiences, while tricking them out of their hard-earned money.

I still find it funny that there are still people who believe Elon is out there to sucker people out of their "hard-earned money".  I'm sure you are aware of the time Tesla was a few days away from bankruptcy, so Elon sank his personal fortune to keep it going because he believed in what he was doing.

I'm a die hard combustion engine fan, but you can't ignore the impact he's had by keeping Tesla afloat and actually building quality products (except maybe the model X) in order to force the hands of the entire automotive industry.

But hey, what do i know. I'm just hoping Elon proves you wrong and maybe, just maybe, you see that he actually knows what he's doing.
 
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