House price appreciation

Which one of these villages has the highest chance for appreciation for $900K?

  • Beacon Park

    Votes: 8 10.4%

  • Cypress Village

    Votes: 9 11.7%

  • Cypress Village East

    Votes: 8 10.4%

  • Eastwood

    Votes: 23 29.9%

  • Orchard Hills

    Votes: 35 45.5%

  • Parasol Park

    Votes: 5 6.5%

  • Pavilion Park

    Votes: 9 11.7%

  • Portola Springs

    Votes: 13 16.9%

  • Stonegate

    Votes: 17 22.1%

  • Stonegate East

    Votes: 5 6.5%

  • Woodbury

    Votes: 8 10.4%

  • Woodbury East

    Votes: 4 5.2%
  • Total voters
    77
My_Alter_Ego

My_Alter_Ego

New member
I know this is a loaded question.  But if I wanted to buy a property (new or resale) with a max limit of $900K, which of these neighborhoods would yield the best appreciation, if the home were purchased today? 
 
aquabliss said:
Everyone is probably just going to vote for where they live.
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Completely agree with this, but that's why I added up to 5 votes per voter.  I also realize that most people voting are going to be prospective buyers or more recent buyers. 

For me personally, I wanted to use this poll to show the options of "newer" neighborhoods...basically homes built within the last 10 years.  That's why I didn't include Northwood. 
 
This question is too open ended.  The MR factor and the sq of the house/detached/attached all have to be factors especially since you cap it at $900k.  We can say $900k all day, but a $900k in eastwood is much different than one at Beacon Park. 

Appreciation best advice? Buy old resale before MR and HOA and do a full remodel.  Look in Westpark/college park and parts of Northwood.  True SFR and often 3CG

These are my 2 cents.

Cross out Portola springs.  It's not going to appreciate as well as the others
My favorite area is Orchard hills but can't buy much for $900k
best value is eastwood for the low MR.  Petaluma is under $900k

If we are ignoring cost of home, then I'd probably do something like

1) Orchard hills
2) Great Park/Beacon Park/parasol Park since these are new and have lots of planning but high $$$$$$
3) stonegate/Eastwood  Stonegate resale  is a winner.  Eastwood low MR
4) Woodbury/woodbury east/Stonegate east/Cypress Village/Cypress Village East.  Cypress village too close to the 5 and woodbury sub $1 million are small but I like the community plans.  Trellis court is probably one of the better home models at $900k
5) Portola Springs.  Not a fan, old and the newer PS3
 
the.irvine said:
How about "At the Groves" at OH. Does it have any negative impact due to being in Tustin school District?
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I'm not good at the "search" button but someone mentioned here a discussion about how the Tustin unified school district homes actually appreciated better than the IUSD.  I think it was a husband and wife and the wife liked the TUSD home more but the husband bought the IUSD instead due to fear of school district.  But I love OH.  Any home will appreciate there I think. 
 
Lot of people voted for OH but we are talking about the under $900k properties here, which consist of only Entrada and Vista Scena.

I would agree that the appreciation for OH community will be very good but the under $900k product in OH is pretty meh, the sales were kind of lukewarm when they came out.
 
I don't have a crystal ball, like some of us showed above :), but following are my 2 cents:
1. Main reason why people buy in Irvine is: schools. And, that is why I am personally not in favor of buying in TUSD
2. The reason Eastwood/Orchard Hills are high up there is: they fall under Northwood High School, #1 high school in Irvine. I would avoid some parts of Orchard Hills, as they are in TUSD
3. The reason Stonegate is little lower than Eastwood/Orchard Hills is: Best elementary school, but Portola High high school--new, but not there yet.
4. The reason why PS prices are lower than Stonegate ( although kids go to same high school) is: proximity to freeway. I believe once 133/Trabucco exit construction is complete, that should fix "proximity to freeways" issue.
5. Cypress village/Cypress Village East is Irvine high; not very high ranking high school.

So, if you believe that school from a particular neighborhood  is going to improve its ranking in future that neighborhood would see the most appreciation.
 
I have bought homes in Stonegate and Orchard Hills.  The homes zoned in Orchard Hills that are TUSD are very good and on par with IUSD counterparts from a rating perspective.  Broadly speaking I believe IUSD to be better but you have to do your own research.  My opinion is the fear of TUSD is exaggerated when referring to OH.
 
My_Alter_Ego said:
I know this is a loaded question.  But if I wanted to buy a property (new or resale) with a max limit of $900K, which of these neighborhoods would yield the best appreciation, if the home were purchased today? 
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Frankly none.  Jimho, it's not about the neighborhoods, it's about the price point.  Unless there are further changes there are just financial and psychological issues once the house price goes over a million.  Some of it good, some it plays to the Irvine psychology of having made it.  Some of it against such as "this is all I get for a million"

I think that later point really plays against Irvine, mental block at a million for a dense tract home with standard builder upgrades.

Still, plenty of push coming from everywhere else.  SFRs in not nice parts of Anaheim are $600k+.  There's so much compression going on in the $500-$800k range.
 
Yes, price/affordability does matter. My comments on relative appreciation--not absolute appreciation. I believe the reason there is more push on <800k is: 20% down payment on a 800k home would get you non-conforming loan, 636K limit--easier to get.
 
the.irvine said:
How about "At the Groves" at OH. Does it have any negative impact due to being in Tustin school District?
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Perhaps, but from looking at the sales of these high end home, it does not reflect any.

Also looking at the small sample of Strada sales, doesn't look like there any difference in home appreciation on which school district the home is zoned to.
 
I'm surprised there are so many votes for OH! It's a beautiful community but there's only Entrada and Vista Scena at the sub $900k price point.  Sales for Vista Scena have been very slow.

In my opinion, Eastwood Village has great potential. Petaluma and Helena sold like hot cakes, prices keep increasing per phase and demand is staying consistent.

Trellis Court at CVE has also been a hot seller at the sub $900k price point warranting an extension already in the works.

New build sales are typically a good indicator for future demand and appreciation.
 
lnc said:
the.irvine said:
How about "At the Groves" at OH. Does it have any negative impact due to being in Tustin school District?
Click to expand...

Perhaps, but from looking at the sales of these high end home, it does not reflect any.

Also looking at the small sample of Strada sales, doesn't look like there any difference in home appreciation on which school district the home is zoned to.
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I don't think TUSD/IUSD issue has much  negative impact in the Groves for two main reasons:

1. The houses are big and tend to be occupied by "move up" owners. In my neighborhood, there's a lot of people who are in their 50s and their kids are grown. They bought here just because they want the nice house and the nice hillside setting (and for some tracts, for the large lot, a view, etc)--schools are not necessarily the number 1 consideration. 

There are just not that many owners with young kids in the Groves compared to other neighborhoods in Irvine I've been in. Also, seems like a lot of people here have lived in Irvine for a long time and sold their previous homes to move here. They are local and familiar with the fact that these particular TUSD schools are just as good or better than Irvine schools. As opposed to transplants who may not be aware of this finer point, and know only IUSD due to marketing from TIC.

2. There's a fair percentage of school age kids here that go to private school.
 
noMoneyBackin2011 said:
why parasol and beacon separate?  Do you really think one community will appreciate differently than another?
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It'll be interesting to see how or if they differ in appreciation.
Look and feel now is different. BP are more traditional with a couple more modern (straight edge/boxy designs) and Parasol much more so, (like all of them)
 
This voting doesn't make any sense to me.  Can someone please explain how a $950K attached townhome in Orchard Hills (Vista Scena) would appreciate faster than a $850K detached townhome in CVE (Trellis Court)?

Are people disregarding the $900kish limit as part of this scenario? 
 
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