Author Topic: President Trump  (Read 269591 times)

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Offline fortune11

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1680 on: January 18, 2018, 09:20:54 PM »
Another GEM of an article from WSJ .  Unlike nonsense from Fox or Fox Business , this is what true " Fair and Balanced " looks like .

https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-would-stocks-be-now-if-hillary-clinton-were-president-1516295645?mod=e2tw


Where Would Stocks Be Now if Hillary Clinton Were President?
President Trump can take credit for some movement in the market, but not as much as it may first appear

By
James Mackintosh

What if Hillary Clinton had won? A year on from the inauguration of Donald Trump as president, Democrats are if anything more upset than they were then. Investors, not so much. So, where would markets be if Mrs. Clinton, not Mr. Trump, were in charge of the presidential Twitter account?

A few things are clear. There wouldn’t have been a huge corporate tax cut. Small business confidence, based on hopes of less red tape, wouldn’t have leaped to the highest since Ronald Reagan’s first term as president. Banks wouldn’t be expecting an easy ride from regulators. And there would be a lot less fiery rhetoric from the White House.

But let’s look at the details. Many of the market-moving changes since the U.S. presidential election would have been just the same. Most important among them: The global economic rebound started before voters picked Mr. Trump, and would surely have continued. That rebound has driven up stocks and bond yields world-wide, and the U.S. is only in the middle of the performance table. From the day before the election, Italy, France, Germany and emerging markets have beaten U.S. stocks in dollar terms, including dividends, while Canada lags well behind.

Finding the cause of any given price move in a market with millions of participants is an imprecise art, and it is easy to confirm your beliefs. After all, Quinnipiac University polling shows 65% of Republicans strongly approve of the way Mr. Trump is handling the presidency, while 86% of Democrats strongly disapprove. Every fact is seen through partisan glasses.

Yet, even die-hard Clintonites are hard-pressed to argue that stocks would be higher if Mrs. Clinton sat in the Oval Office. Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, who runs one of the Rothschild family investment companies, E.L. Rothschild LLC, hosted high-profile fundraisers for her friend and was distraught when she lost the election, but accepts that investors have welcomed Mr. Trump’s policies.

“The market’s definitely liking what Trump is doing,” she says. “For now.”

Mrs. Clinton wouldn’t have focused on tax cuts and deregulation. The corporate tax cuts will boost earnings by about a tenth, supporting stock prices and boosting returns from U.S. investments. Gains from deregulation are hard to quantify but should help small businesses and banks the most.

Immediately after the election, investors priced in much of the Trump agenda, with smaller companies, banks and companies which pay a lot of tax (and so would benefit most from cuts) far outperforming the wider market for a few months. Yet, much of it didn’t last.

From the election to Wednesday’s close, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies and the S&P 500 both returned 35%, including dividends. Both were great investments, but there was no extra benefit for smaller-company investors. Stocks outside the U.S. made the same 35% in dollar terms.

High-tax companies have done well since the tax cuts gained support in the fall, but according to Goldman Sachs have exactly matched the S&P 500 since the election.

Surely shareholders in banks, at least, can give Mr. Trump credit for their whopping 57% return? Even here the waters are muddied by rising bond yields. Bank shares have moved closely with 10-year Treasury yields, which are entirely unaffected by talk of lighter regulation. Much of the bank share-price gains are down to the same prospect of higher inflation and higher interest rates that pushed up bond yields.

So would inflation and interest rates be lower under a Democratic president? It is possible. Mr. Trump’s election enthused CEOs and small-business owners, and there is typically a link between them feeling positive and stronger hiring and capital expenditure. On the other hand, there has been a similar pickup in hiring and corporate investment in other countries. The U.S. would have gained from the same global growth pattern under Mrs. Clinton, too.

“Relative to what’s happened I’m not sure the economics would be that different [under Mrs. Clinton],” said Jan Loeys, senior adviser at J.P. Morgan. “The rebound in the rest of the world would have happened anyway.”


The technology sector adds to the confusion. Silicon Valley poured cash into Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, and tech shares tumbled along with other expected Trump victims such as Mexico and Obamacare-linked stocks after the election. This makes sense: Leading tech companies already have low tax rates, so gain little from tax cuts, and will be hit by Mr. Trump’s clampdown on visas for skilled foreign workers. Yet, the tech sector rebounded and has returned 50% since election eve. Perhaps it would have done even better if it had its favored candidate in the White House, and so pulled up the S&P 500 even more.

What of the future? Vincent Mortier, deputy chief investment officer at France’s Amundi, worries that Mr. Trump is creating long-term risks for short-term gain. Tax cuts boost stocks now but could worsen inequality and so put future political stability at risk. Deregulation around energy raises the danger from climate change. And nationalist talk makes an eventual trade war more likely.

America under Mrs. Clinton would have had no corporate tax cut and no deregulation, and probably be a bit less lucrative for investors. But it would be wrong to give Mr. Trump much credit for the faster economy last year, and it is many years too early to know if his policies will provide a lasting boost.

Offline morekaos

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1681 on: January 18, 2018, 10:32:25 PM »
Trump is at 37% after all this shock and awe boom.

you all can hope but don't forget

- Obama gave out refunds and cash for clunkers but didnt stop him from losing midterms in a bad economy
- bush had an even better economy in 2006 ( than we have now) but still lost the midterms due to Iraq and general distaste for gop

distate for gop is even worse now.  this forum is a general watering hole for conservative sympathizers and trump supporters so may not feel that way to you guys but step or read outside your bubble and you will know.  democrats are winning special elections left right and center. 

I am not calling for a dem wave sweep but house is almost certain to change control esp given so many blue states involved. and losing even one wing of power means MAGA project is jammed for good.

and jim cramer is one of the biggest hacks out there (if you followed his stock picks in 2000 you probably got destroyed and then again in 2008). ... so called  Marshall plan :).   companies can put the cash to work anyway they want and who is keeping track?   if apple spends some of that cash to buy Tesla , they can still call it " investing in the US "


First, you still put faith in polls...they will be wrong...again.

Second, cash for clunkers was doomed and most conservatives opposed it...it was a disaster.

Third, bush was at the helm of an increasingly unpopular war...that overwhelmed the good economy as it played to the electorates emotions.

You should get out of your liberal Cali echo chamber. Any conservative voices here are howling in a hurricane. No one around here hears us. But I will tell you this. Get outside the city, I said it way before the election, the rest of the country sees things differently.  It’s why you got blindsided so badly in November. It is about to happen again. I do significant business outside the Cali echo chamber and I see the same signs as before November. Add to that a roaring economy and my contrarian view will win again.



Offline morekaos

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1682 on: January 18, 2018, 10:42:30 PM »
Oh and I hate Cramer too. The significance in posting that article was the Tim Cook quote. Cook, hardly a trump supporter credited the president, his policies and tax bill as the main motivator in bringing back a quarter of trillion dollars in cash, paying the government $38 billion in taxes, giving his employees bonuses and raises and investing or distributing the rest.  And that’s just one company...many more are coming!

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1683 on: January 19, 2018, 09:29:12 AM »
According to Real Clear Politics:
Quote
So far, 164 American companies have said they are voluntarily practicing wealth redistribution by sharing their profits with employees because of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was passed with President Donald Trump's leadership.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/01/19/the_out-of-touch_party_136038.html


Offline fortune11

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1684 on: January 19, 2018, 10:20:43 AM »
me puppet ... no. no you puppet 

me bubble .. no, no you bubble  :)   reference from the 2016 debates/

lets move past bubbles ... all of us have a narrow set of interactions to work from that does not come anywhere close to the large set of data , GOOD QUALITY polls tend to work with.

we all have a " guy  who knows a guy " or  "client who know exactly what's going on ... "  . yes I can go on and list my credentials too but what's the point. 

point is, you assumed that everyone who doesn't agree w you got blindsided by the election.  no point telling you then that I actually believed nate silver 538.com 's probability of 25-30% trump victory which what probabilities are  . it is not like some "majority vote "  for crying out loud . so it was not that big of a surprise.

and now the wind is blowing in the other direction - big factors being incumbency, more motivated anti-trump vote and mobilization of minorities whereas the gop base is not as energized now.  we have seen this play out on the ground in recent elections, it is not just some " made up stuff " which is not what I can say about many of the posts floating around on this thread. 

I do agree that midterm elections are an eternity away  and a lot can happen

maybe stocks don't keep climbing like this anymore (I don't know but I personally was full invested since 2016 until recently, now I am barely 25% of my previous allocation to equities)

maybe the one time bonus payments fizzle out and wages don't really increase as much.  but not sure how much of that people will attribute to trump.  the perception on tax cuts so far is that it is still VERY MUCH a tax cut for the rich and corporations -- and it will be very hard to shake that off .

One x-factor could be the CA open primary system which selects top 2 candidates regardless of party affiliation . so this could also hurt democrats despite a general loathing in CA against trump and gop

another factor is minority vote suppression which the gop has developed to a science now (witness north Carolina) which means long voting lines in those neighborhoods.  that could also help gop and trump.


Offline morekaos

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1685 on: January 21, 2018, 02:28:26 PM »
Well, your polls are turning .

Congressional Republicans have seen a bounce in generic polling against Democrats after passing tax cuts last month. A new CNN poll tightened the margin to 5 points — with Democrats at 49% and Republicans at 44%. The same poll showed Democrats leading by 18 points last month.

https://www.axios.com/after-tax-cut-congressional-gop-bouncing-back-1516546707-5e6390d5-9467-4c05-859c-47397258d412.html

Offline morekaos

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1686 on: January 21, 2018, 03:46:57 PM »
I can already hear the excuses now.  “Stupid, white, uneducated voters always vote against their better interests and never cease to amaze me.”  LOL!!!!

The Republican Rally
New reason to believe the GOP can hold the House.

By passing pro-growth tax reform, Republicans have given themselves more than a puncher’s chance of holding their congressional majorities. This will require bucking history, which usually shows a rough year for the President’s party in the first mid-term of his presidency. For example, in 1982, during President Ronald Reagan’s second year in office, Republicans lost 26 seats in the House. In 1994, Bill Clinton watched his Democratic colleagues lose 52 House seats. In 2010, during year two of Barack Obama’s tenure, the Democrats lost 63 seats.

Why should 2018 be any different? When lawmakers enacted the Reagan tax cuts in 1981, Republicans blundered by agreeing to delay the implementation of many provisions. Without the immediate pro-growth boost, the U.S. economy shrank by nearly 2% in 1982 and voters registered their displeasure. In 1994 and 2010, voters were angry over government attempts (successful in 2010) to exert greater control over their health care. The current GOP majority hasn’t made such mistakes. Pro-growth policy, taking immediate effect, is becoming more popular.

Today the Federal Reserve Bank of New York affirmed its estimate of 3.9% economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year, and is now forecasting another quarter above 3% in the first three months of 2018. That’s a good economic environment in any era, and a stark contrast to the slow growth of the Obama years. Game on.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-republican-rally-1516399468

Offline morekaos

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1687 on: January 22, 2018, 11:33:41 AM »
Blink!! Winning!!

Blink: Democrats vote to end the government shutdown

The Senate on Monday was on track to vote to reopen the federal government, after Senate Democrats agreed to let the bill through even though it doesn't include immigration language they are seeking.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/blink-democrats-vote-to-end-the-government-shutdown/article/2646682

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1688 on: January 22, 2018, 11:38:30 AM »
Blink!! Winning!!

Blink: Democrats vote to end the government shutdown

The Senate on Monday was on track to vote to reopen the federal government, after Senate Democrats agreed to let the bill through even though it doesn't include immigration language they are seeking.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/blink-democrats-vote-to-end-the-government-shutdown/article/2646682

This was more about the show then getting actual results.  Now they can go into the midterms saying they fought for the dreamers.

Ted Cruz pulled a similar stunt in 2013.

Offline morekaos

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1689 on: January 22, 2018, 11:44:39 AM »
This little political play was not going their way and they sensed it.  Its a cave. I think they wanted this to go on for awhile but it wasn't getting any traction.  Best to cut your losses. Time to switch back to Russia, Russia, Russia!!

Offline Kings

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1690 on: January 22, 2018, 12:14:35 PM »
This little political play was not going their way and they sensed it.  Its a cave. I think they wanted this to go on for awhile but it wasn't getting any traction.  Best to cut your losses. Time to switch back to Russia, Russia, Russia!!

The art of the deal.  I give this one 9 out of 10 dimensions of chess.

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Offline fortune11

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1691 on: January 22, 2018, 12:19:01 PM »
Blink!! Winning!!

Blink: Democrats vote to end the government shutdown

The Senate on Monday was on track to vote to reopen the federal government, after Senate Democrats agreed to let the bill through even though it doesn't include immigration language they are seeking.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/blink-democrats-vote-to-end-the-government-shutdown/article/2646682

This was more about the show then getting actual results.  Now they can go into the midterms saying they fought for the dreamers.

Ted Cruz pulled a similar stunt in 2013.

Yes . that seems more logical.  this takes away some of the sting from their hard left progressive base .

Offline morekaos

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1692 on: January 22, 2018, 01:52:13 PM »
More like poker than chess. Even the press admits it...

Trump and Republicans easily win shutdown battle

The Democrats caved Monday three days into their government shutdown gamble.
This is a clear win for President Trump and the congressional Republicans.
The news media's failure to strongly support the Democrats was a key factor.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/22/trump-and-republicans-easily-win-shutdown-battle-commentary.html

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1693 on: January 23, 2018, 01:09:04 PM »
Just another day in Trump Land:

JP Morgan Chase to build 400 new branches, raise wages because of the tax cut
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/j-p-morgan-to-spend-20-billion-after-tax-cuts-on-jobs-branches.html

125,000 Disney employees to receive $1,000 cash bonus due to tax reform
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/125000-disney-employees-to-receive-1000-cash-bonus-company-launches-new-50-million-education-program.html

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: President Trump
« Reply #1694 on: January 23, 2018, 01:11:13 PM »
More like poker than chess. Even the press admits it...

Trump and Republicans easily win shutdown battle

The Democrats caved Monday three days into their government shutdown gamble.
This is a clear win for President Trump and the congressional Republicans.
The news media's failure to strongly support the Democrats was a key factor.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/22/trump-and-republicans-easily-win-shutdown-battle-commentary.html

Oh...the Dems folding like a decks of cards is totally expected.  Chuck Schumer leads the Senate Dems...he is basically a folding chair.

 

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