2011 Prices vs 2016 Price on a 550K [attached]condo @Irvine?

D

dream16

New member
Hi Guys, pretty much everyone here must be aware of the big drop we experienced in 2011 in CA.

I bought a 1600 sq ft condo 2bed/2.5 bath Tri-Level - Tandem Garage this year for 550k in Portola Springs.

My question is that since the community in which i bought it started the 1st phase development in later half of 2014, how would you price something similar to what i purchased considering its the year 2011?

All i am trying to do is find out how much extra did i pay for this condo by buying it in 2016 vs 2011, is there a 50k or 100k difference? So similar comps b/w 2011 vs 2016 can help.
 
The only thing I have to say is: I wouldn't have bought the 3 story condo in PS. (Now or before)
 
My guess is that type of condo was selling for the low to mid 400's in 2011....maybe even lower. 
 
hello said:
I read your post twice and I honestly do not know what you are asking exactly...
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Same here. 
I wasn't sure how to respond so I didn't...
 
dream16 said:
acf said:
ahh. Probably 50-100k more for sure yup.
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So technically i lost more than half of my down payment in just the inflation then :( :( :(
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You didnt lose anything unless prices drop.  I suppose you are saying this because you expect prices to drop...
 
San Carlos in Portola Springs had 3/3 1600 sq ft tri-level condos for low 400s in 2011 IIRC.  Slightly better configuration than yours since it was a 3/3 with standard garage.
 
dream16 said:
acf said:
ahh. Probably 50-100k more for sure yup.
Click to expand...

So technically i lost more than half of my down payment in just the inflation then :( :( :(
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Were you renting from 2011 to now?  if so, then at least you saved on property taxes and mello roos. 
 
woodburyowner said:
San Carlos in Portola Springs had 3/3 1600 sq ft tri-level condos for low 400s in 2011 IIRC.  Slightly better configuration than yours since it was a 3/3 with standard garage.
Click to expand...

Oh wow :( :( i wish i was in the US Real Estate Market at that time, i was in my early 20s and never gave a damn about buying a house :( A 3/3 with Standard Garage for low 400s, lets say even 430k with closing costs included = WIN !

So in a matter of 5 years, it changed from 430 to 550k = 120k difference....i hope this upward trend continues in next 5 years...or i will have to keep it as a rental investment for another 10-15 years.
 
dream16 said:
woodburyowner said:
San Carlos in Portola Springs had 3/3 1600 sq ft tri-level condos for low 400s in 2011 IIRC.  Slightly better configuration than yours since it was a 3/3 with standard garage.
Click to expand...

Oh wow :( :( i wish i was in the US Real Estate Market at that time, i was in my early 20s and never gave a damn about buying a house :( A 3/3 with Standard Garage for low 400s, lets say even 430k with closing costs included = WIN !

So in a matter of 5 years, it changed from 430 to 550k = 120k difference....i hope this upward trend continues in next 5 years...or i will have to keep it as a rental investment for another 10-15 years.
Click to expand...

you mentioned it was a rental investment, that means someone is helping you pay your mortgage for you, even if you don't completely break in *hard to do in Irvine with mello roos* so good job there

I have a thought that no rental property is ever going to be a bad thing to have.  You'll always be making money on them.  You can still write off depreciation and mortgage interest on investments...

Even if prices drop, as long as you have a tenant, you'll still be good.  Wait 10-15 when the mortgage is paid off 50% or even more if you are able to even add in $500 additional principal pay..then boom! that 550k price (assuming 400-450 mortgage) will be a $200-250 mortgage and you'll be sitting on massive equity and cash...good luck! Irvine recovered really well from the recession so you invested in the right city..
 
SoclosetoIrvine said:
dream16 said:
woodburyowner said:
San Carlos in Portola Springs had 3/3 1600 sq ft tri-level condos for low 400s in 2011 IIRC.  Slightly better configuration than yours since it was a 3/3 with standard garage.
Click to expand...

Oh wow :( :( i wish i was in the US Real Estate Market at that time, i was in my early 20s and never gave a damn about buying a house :( A 3/3 with Standard Garage for low 400s, lets say even 430k with closing costs included = WIN !

So in a matter of 5 years, it changed from 430 to 550k = 120k difference....i hope this upward trend continues in next 5 years...or i will have to keep it as a rental investment for another 10-15 years.
Click to expand...

you mentioned it was a rental investment, that means someone is helping you pay your mortgage for you, even if you don't completely break in *hard to do in Irvine with mello roos* so good job there

I have a thought that no rental property is ever going to be a bad thing to have.  You'll always be making money on them.  You can still write off depreciation and mortgage interest on investments...

Even if prices drop, as long as you have a tenant, you'll still be good.  Wait 10-15 when the mortgage is paid off 50% or even more if you are able to even add in $500 additional principal pay..then boom! that 550k price (assuming 400-450 mortgage) will be a $200-250 mortgage and you'll be sitting on massive equity and cash...good luck! Irvine recovered really well from the recession so you invested in the right city..
Click to expand...

Why did he bring it up the topic if it was a non issue?
 
SoclosetoIrvine said:
dream16 said:
woodburyowner said:
San Carlos in Portola Springs had 3/3 1600 sq ft tri-level condos for low 400s in 2011 IIRC.  Slightly better configuration than yours since it was a 3/3 with standard garage.
Click to expand...

Oh wow :( :( i wish i was in the US Real Estate Market at that time, i was in my early 20s and never gave a damn about buying a house :( A 3/3 with Standard Garage for low 400s, lets say even 430k with closing costs included = WIN !

So in a matter of 5 years, it changed from 430 to 550k = 120k difference....i hope this upward trend continues in next 5 years...or i will have to keep it as a rental investment for another 10-15 years.
Click to expand...

you mentioned it was a rental investment, that means someone is helping you pay your mortgage for you, even if you don't completely break in *hard to do in Irvine with mello roos* so good job there

I have a thought that no rental property is ever going to be a bad thing to have.  You'll always be making money on them.  You can still write off depreciation and mortgage interest on investments...

Even if prices drop, as long as you have a tenant, you'll still be good.  Wait 10-15 when the mortgage is paid off 50% or even more if you are able to even add in $500 additional principal pay..then boom! that 550k price (assuming 400-450 mortgage) will be a $200-250 mortgage and you'll be sitting on massive equity and cash...good luck! Irvine recovered really well from the recession so you invested in the right city..
Click to expand...

Thanks for the encouraging insights, i actually lost $10k on the property as it took time to find right tenants & they ditched at last moment and then had to do it via agent (paid 5%), and on an yearly basis now going forward, considering it stays rented all the time, l am looking at loosing $3k/year, so definitely not a great investment by any means, lets see if rents could be raised by $200 next year to break it even.

Right now, i have not factored in any maintenance/repair costs as its a brand new property with warranty for 1st year on mostly everything.
 
dream16 said:
woodburyowner said:
San Carlos in Portola Springs had 3/3 1600 sq ft tri-level condos for low 400s in 2011 IIRC.  Slightly better configuration than yours since it was a 3/3 with standard garage.
Click to expand...

Oh wow :( :( i wish i was in the US Real Estate Market at that time, i was in my early 20s and never gave a damn about buying a house :( A 3/3 with Standard Garage for low 400s, lets say even 430k with closing costs included = WIN !

So in a matter of 5 years, it changed from 430 to 550k = 120k difference....i hope this upward trend continues in next 5 years...or i will have to keep it as a rental investment for another 10-15 years.
Click to expand...

I do not think you will see this for another five years... for that matter even another year.
 
SoclosetoIrvine said:
dream16 said:
woodburyowner said:
San Carlos in Portola Springs had 3/3 1600 sq ft tri-level condos for low 400s in 2011 IIRC.  Slightly better configuration than yours since it was a 3/3 with standard garage.
Click to expand...

Oh wow :( :( i wish i was in the US Real Estate Market at that time, i was in my early 20s and never gave a damn about buying a house :( A 3/3 with Standard Garage for low 400s, lets say even 430k with closing costs included = WIN !

So in a matter of 5 years, it changed from 430 to 550k = 120k difference....i hope this upward trend continues in next 5 years...or i will have to keep it as a rental investment for another 10-15 years.
Click to expand...

I have a thought that no rental property is ever going to be a bad thing to have.  You'll always be making money on them.  You can still write off depreciation and mortgage interest on investments...

Even if prices drop, as long as you have a tenant, you'll still be good.  Wait 10-15 when the mortgage is paid off 50% or even more if you are able to even add in $500 additional principal pay..then boom! that 550k price (assuming 400-450 mortgage) will be a $200-250 mortgage and you'll be sitting on massive equity and cash...good luck! Irvine recovered really well from the recession so you invested in the right city..
Click to expand...

im sorry but I just had to respond to this because its such bad logic.  Rental properties can be GREAT... but you have to buy at the right time and the right place.  Furthermore, it has to be properly managed.  There are thousands of people who have lost their shirt because of the reasons above.  You can only write off things if you profit on them and in current market, there is no way you will cash flow from rentals in Irvine.  So to bring up MID and depreciation is a moot point here. 

If prices do drop, then you are even more screwed in Irvine.  If you are thinking about investment property in Irvine, your only play right now is appreciation, since you will not cash flow well.  When I talk about cash flow, I am talking from a standard 20-25% down payment (not 100% cash purchases) which is probably how you bought your house.  So if your house depreciates, on top of the fact you have no cash flow, you are royally F'ed. 

Its not as easy to make money on rentals as the poster suggests.  There are plenty of ways to make money, but also plenty of ways to lose money.  Rentals in Irvine is a great way to currently lose money.  Ask any seasoned investors who is purchasing long term buy and holds in Irvine right now.  You wont find ONE, unless its an off market deal under market value.  Even then, it may be hard to cash flow well (again assuming 20-25% down and calculating costs such as vacancies, maintenance, cap-ex costs, etc, etc, etc)





 
hello said:
SoclosetoIrvine said:
dream16 said:
woodburyowner said:
San Carlos in Portola Springs had 3/3 1600 sq ft tri-level condos for low 400s in 2011 IIRC.  Slightly better configuration than yours since it was a 3/3 with standard garage.
Click to expand...

Oh wow :( :( i wish i was in the US Real Estate Market at that time, i was in my early 20s and never gave a damn about buying a house :( A 3/3 with Standard Garage for low 400s, lets say even 430k with closing costs included = WIN !

So in a matter of 5 years, it changed from 430 to 550k = 120k difference....i hope this upward trend continues in next 5 years...or i will have to keep it as a rental investment for another 10-15 years.
Click to expand...

I have a thought that no rental property is ever going to be a bad thing to have.  You'll always be making money on them.  You can still write off depreciation and mortgage interest on investments...

Even if prices drop, as long as you have a tenant, you'll still be good.  Wait 10-15 when the mortgage is paid off 50% or even more if you are able to even add in $500 additional principal pay..then boom! that 550k price (assuming 400-450 mortgage) will be a $200-250 mortgage and you'll be sitting on massive equity and cash...good luck! Irvine recovered really well from the recession so you invested in the right city..
Click to expand...

im sorry but I just had to respond to this because its such bad logic.  Rental properties can be GREAT... but you have to buy at the right time and the right place.  Furthermore, it has to be properly managed.  There are thousands of people who have lost their shirt because of the reasons above.  You can only write off things if you profit on them and in current market, there is no way you will cash flow from rentals in Irvine.  So to bring up MID and depreciation is a moot point here. 

If prices do drop, then you are even more screwed in Irvine.  If you are thinking about investment property in Irvine, your only play right now is appreciation, since you will not cash flow well.  When I talk about cash flow, I am talking from a standard 20-25% down payment (not 100% cash purchases) which is probably how you bought your house.  So if your house depreciates, on top of the fact you have no cash flow, you are royally F'ed. 

Its not as easy to make money on rentals as the poster suggests.  There are plenty of ways to make money, but also plenty of ways to lose money.  Rentals in Irvine is a great way to currently lose money.  Ask any seasoned investors who is purchasing long term buy and holds in Irvine right now.  You wont find ONE, unless its an off market deal under market value.  Even then, it may be hard to cash flow well (again assuming 20-25% down and calculating costs such as vacancies, maintenance, cap-ex costs, etc, etc, etc)
Click to expand...

completely agree. anyone buying a investment property banking on appreciation is taking quite a bit of risk. not to make OP sweat on this some more or add negativity to it. if OP is breaking even or close to it then I'd understand.. but OP if you bought a half a million tri-level condo in portola spring expecting it to appreciate at the same level again (from 2011)... I would seriously suggest running the math again.
 
hello said:
SoclosetoIrvine said:
dream16 said:
woodburyowner said:
San Carlos in Portola Springs had 3/3 1600 sq ft tri-level condos for low 400s in 2011 IIRC.  Slightly better configuration than yours since it was a 3/3 with standard garage.
Click to expand...

Oh wow :( :( i wish i was in the US Real Estate Market at that time, i was in my early 20s and never gave a damn about buying a house :( A 3/3 with Standard Garage for low 400s, lets say even 430k with closing costs included = WIN !

So in a matter of 5 years, it changed from 430 to 550k = 120k difference....i hope this upward trend continues in next 5 years...or i will have to keep it as a rental investment for another 10-15 years.
Click to expand...

I have a thought that no rental property is ever going to be a bad thing to have.  You'll always be making money on them.  You can still write off depreciation and mortgage interest on investments...

Even if prices drop, as long as you have a tenant, you'll still be good.  Wait 10-15 when the mortgage is paid off 50% or even more if you are able to even add in $500 additional principal pay..then boom! that 550k price (assuming 400-450 mortgage) will be a $200-250 mortgage and you'll be sitting on massive equity and cash...good luck! Irvine recovered really well from the recession so you invested in the right city..
Click to expand...

im sorry but I just had to respond to this because its such bad logic.  Rental properties can be GREAT... but you have to buy at the right time and the right place.  Furthermore, it has to be properly managed.  There are thousands of people who have lost their shirt because of the reasons above.  You can only write off things if you profit on them and in current market, there is no way you will cash flow from rentals in Irvine.  So to bring up MID and depreciation is a moot point here. 

If prices do drop, then you are even more screwed in Irvine.  If you are thinking about investment property in Irvine, your only play right now is appreciation, since you will not cash flow well.  When I talk about cash flow, I am talking from a standard 20-25% down payment (not 100% cash purchases) which is probably how you bought your house.  So if your house depreciates, on top of the fact you have no cash flow, you are royally F'ed. 

Its not as easy to make money on rentals as the poster suggests.  There are plenty of ways to make money, but also plenty of ways to lose money.  Rentals in Irvine is a great way to currently lose money.  Ask any seasoned investors who is purchasing long term buy and holds in Irvine right now.  You wont find ONE, unless its an off market deal under market value.  Even then, it may be hard to cash flow well (again assuming 20-25% down and calculating costs such as vacancies, maintenance, cap-ex costs, etc, etc, etc)
Click to expand...

Pardon my lack of US real estate investment experience, what according to you is the right time to invest in Irvine? 2018, 2020, 2022? We have all heard the infamous phrase "Housing to tank hard soon or next year blah blah" and i have done my extensive research on the 7 year high-low cycle, but with the recent brexit, the ongoing chinese money, lowest ever interest rates, the future does not promise to go as low as 2011 ever again, might be an adjustment here and there, but will it be more than 15% in southern california market for condo's is what i am not too certain about, please enlighten.
 
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