Irvine real estate - 5 Year projection

Where do you see Irvine real estate going by end of 2020?

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If your living there who cares? Unless you are planning to sell in a short period.
I think those days are over when you buy and sell right after closing and you could make a killing. (Ex stonegate...)





 
My prediction is that it's going to go up another 5-10% before it drop 10%.  Basically back to today's level in the few years.  Price will starts to raise again after 2020 due to decline in new builds, limited inventory, and population boom among millennials generation that are ready to purchase.

But what do I know.  I turn down a Lambert Ranch home back in 2012 at $335/sq.ft. because I think it is over priced. :mad:

 
A house you buy to reside in, isn't an investment. So it doesn't matter much. You might know what your profit/loss is when you sell in the distant future; but that's only true if you carefully document everything you spend to upgrade and maintain your house over your ownership period.

And even then, all you have is an accurate figure. Once you sell it, you'll likely buy another house in the same general area. So its value will either have increased or decreased similarly affecting the price you pay for it.

In other words, there's no need to fret house prices. They are what they are, and will go where they'll go.
 
I agree $/sqft is getting ridiculous. I also do not debate the role Asian buyers play in Irvine market.

Current population of Irvine in the ballpark of 250k. They say, at the full build out, the pop would be around 300k. Which coincides with 5 year mark from today as 10-12k ppl are moving to Irvine every year on average. TIC is building apartments like there is no tomorrow, which tells me that they do forecast the pop growth to continue. Weather that growth pushes home prices up or turns Irvine into Renter's town is to be seen.
 
I think the market will further stratify with associated greater price increases (as a percentage) going to the upper strata. 

The triangle is a traffic choke in all direction at rush hour.  It's getting worse and policy mandates will continue to make dealing with it for those outside  of the triangle more time consuming and costly.

You bind in Irvine's very KUWTJ attitude and you've got a formula for a pocketbook arms race of who's willing to give up the greatest percentage of their income to have the upper level homes.

 
Perspective said:
A house you buy to reside in, isn't an investment. So it doesn't matter much. You might know what your profit/loss is when you sell in the distant future; but that's only true if you carefully document everything you spend to upgrade and maintain your house over your ownership period.

And even then, all you have is an accurate figure. Once you sell it, you'll likely buy another house in the same general area. So its value will either have increased or decreased similarly affecting the price you pay for it.

In other words, there's no need to fret house prices. They are what they are, and will go where they'll go.
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With one major exception, sometime market forces could cause you to have to relocate and at those times, it is important what the prices of real estate are. I agree with you on affordability and everything and theoretically it would be hard to imagine a scenario where long-term prices go down (cause of inflation...etc...of course if we got to a deflationary state, oh shit is all I can say).  Either way, at this point, just buy what you can afford when you can afford it if you are thinking long-term (clearly it is the path I should have taken a year to a year and a half ago when I casually started shopping for a new home, thinking I could be patient and had the benefit of time given where markets were).  Thank the lord I have a current place...unfortunately while it has appreciated (and I bought it at a low), it certainly didn't appreciate over past 1.5 years like TIC has jacked up its prices. Oh well, what the hell do I know.
 
If considered the high tech industry, Irvine starts to change its landscape. Low profile, old company like Broadcom, Western digital starts to layoff, but high profile company, "FANG" expends in Irvine. Amazon hires people like crazy. They probably has more than 500 people in Irvine. Considered of VC volume, Irvine probably  3rd in CA. I believed IC has more detail data, so they are marketing very aggressive.
 
Not to mention my employer has start plan that involves few k more employees in 5 years. Not all of them are 6 figure jobs but some would be there to manage the incremental workforce.
 
so in general, if everyone thinks the prices of Irvine are going to go up, why complain about the current Eastwood home prices. they will be a veritable bargain in the coming years!!

wishing it were cheaper is one thing, but if they are going to continue to go up, bite the damn bullet no?
 
Looking at the EW prices, I feel like I got a deal at Ellwood, even though the MR is higher.  I, too, thought that housing prices are inflated and was hoping for a correction, but we bit the bullet to buy in Irvine.

acf said:
so in general, if everyone thinks the prices of Irvine are going to go up, why complain about the current Eastwood home prices. they will be a veritable bargain in the coming years!!

wishing it were cheaper is one thing, but if they are going to continue to go up, bite the damn bullet no?
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Assuming 3% gain per year, it's going to be about 16%.  Throw in a negative or flat year or two and maybe 10% growth?
 
Think they will go up at about the same rate as inflation.

1) interest rates will not go up much. I said all along that the Fed changes in short term rates will have basically no effect on long term rates and so far I'm right.

2) there is not enough land or construction in OC. The register has run numerous articles about how household formation exceed housing construction. Irvine is the only city building much and it will run out if land soon.

3) traffic from outside of Irvine to the job centers here is getting worse, especially from more affordable cities like Anaheim and Corona.

4) unemployment continues to decrease.

It's not as hard to come up with a down payment as you think. Many buyers got stock options or family money. You can also buy with 3-5% down.
 
paperboyNC said:
Think they will go up at about the same rate as inflation.

1) interest rates will not go up much. I said all along that the Fed changes in short term rates will have basically no effect on long term rates and so far I'm right.

2) there is not enough land or construction in OC. The register has run numerous articles about how household formation exceed housing construction. Irvine is the only city building much and it will run out if land soon.

3) traffic from outside of Irvine to the job centers here is getting worse, especially from more affordable cities like Anaheim and Corona.

4) unemployment continues to decrease.

It's not as hard to come up with a down payment as you think. Many buyers got stock options or family money. You can also buy with 3-5% down.
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I say that's true, if we don't go into a global recession.
I'm not a big fan of FHA loans (3-5% down) The PMI extra payment is a killer. It's like an additional Hoa monthly payment.

BofAML recently says 50% chance of a recession. Also, Citi announced economy on edge of recession.

 
eyephone said:
I'm not a big fan of FHA loans (3-5% down) The PMI extra payment is a killer. It's like an additional Hoa monthly payment.
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I wouldn't discount an FHA if you can afford to pay the monthly (even with the PMI).

Some people don't have enough saved up but make enough income to qualify for the higher monthly payment.

That's how I bought my first house, and then after a few years, the equity turned into 20% for the next one, rinse and repeat.
 

I say that's true, if we don't go into a global recession.

BofAML recently says 50% chance of a recession. Also, Citi announced economy on edge of recession.
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True. I certainly hope we don't have a recession with us being in a position to not fight it much (can't lower interest rates, not much appetite for a stimulus bill)
 
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