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Compressed Village. Look at the two real estate charts of Las Vegas, NV and Nashville, TN. Why do you think they look so different? Nashville is now 40% above its last peak, whereas Las Vegas is still lagging behind its previous peak value. Do you think the past performance in the last 15 years for both the LA and Atlanta market will repeat itself in the next 15 years? Would love to hear your thoughts.



Liar Loan, Agreed that the stock market moved side ways from 1965 to 1982. Do you have any charts or source link that shows a 10X in real estate during that time period?

Quote from: Liar Loan link=topic=16400.msg334583#msg334583 date=1529088328
[quote author=paydawg link=topic=16400.msg334525#msg334525 date=1529015288

Risks is almost minimal if the investment is long term.  Yes there is risk but relative risk is very low.  You can have a huge depression in the market and your house dramatically fall in value.  Paying off principal is a form of investment...you just put it into your house rather than in stocks or bonds.

Inflation eats 2-3% a year anyways...so your are better off taking money now then giving it to the bank.

I call BS on minimal risk on long-term stock market investment. Many people got laid off in 2008-09 and needed to cash out their investments just as the time that they were down big. Others couldn't resist the urge to sell.

If you have a 4.5% interest rate on your home and are no longer itemizing deductions due to the new tax law, anything you put into home mortgage earns 4.5% "risk-free" and tax-free.

The main risk of paying down a mortgage early, is that the money can be inaccessible when you need it most. If you lose your job and want to cash-out refi, you can't.

The second risk is that with a mortgage, the bank (or lenders) are sharing the risk in your home. If anything catastrophic happens (earthquake, fire, housing market crash, etc.) and for whatever reason you are unable to rebuild with insurance coverage, the higher your LTV, the less you have to lose by walking away.

Look at any 5-year period and you'll see that the market has been minimal risk.  Even if you were to invest all your money at the peak before the crash, within 5 years, you made your money back...and that's the worst case scenario.  In general, the stock market has (and will) outpace the real estate market.

This isn't true.

The great depression took about 15 years to recover (assuming your portfolio didn't entirely go BK).

The Nasdaq took 15 years to recover.  It may not represent the full market, but it's what everybody was invested in at the time.  Real estate did far better from 2000 to 2015 than tech stocks, not even accounting for leverage.

The period from 1965 to 1982 also had very low stock returns during extremely high inflation (a loss in real terms).  If you look at real estate vs. stocks during this time period, real estate probably wins by a multiple of 10x.






James, from where you are in GA, where do you think we are in term of real estate cycle? And you are from outside looking into CA, particularly Southern CA. Where do you think we are in term of real estate cycle?


Look at the two real estate charts of Las Vegas, NV and Nashville, TN. Why do you think they look so different? Nashville is now 40% above its last peak, whereas Las Vegas is still lagging behind its previous peak value. Do you think the past performance in the last 15 years for both the LA and Atlanta market will repeat itself in the next 15 years? Would love to hear your thoughts.


When lower price homes in Nashville support by good paying wages from diversify employments, and attract other major business players to relocate recently in Nashville TN. has created a boom cycle Nash. TN. Las Vegas lag behind because mainly hospitality business and leisure. The Sun Belt states have historically had significantly lower property prices than the coastal states and have charged lower rents. Therefore, there is more room for rent increases in these markets than in oversupplied and expensive coastal markets, as well as the potential for higher cap rates. And majority of employees in the hospitality and leisure roles earn minimum wages plus tips. A big difference in term of wage earning.

LA and Atlanta both hustle and bustle city with equally high wages and diverse business. The big negative for LA/OC is affordability is sucked. Price is high and possibly getting higher before stalling out. Atlanta, can still gain, as people still see better values and it still much cheaper compare to coastal real estate. The timing/cycle for OC is mature. Along with other headwinds from tax shelter go away, to rate jump, and foreign institutions investment slow down or cut off could spark a big slow down after summer season.
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Property and pics look great as always.  I'm sure you'll do well on this one.  Our friends with 2 kids have this plan, and it's definitely a great spacious plan for the money.  We'll try to stop drop by the open house.  Btw, is it just me or you are slowly moving in on Woodbury?  2 out of last 3 listings right?
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USC hasn't cranked up the ROI knob yet. No need to do so until just before it goes pending.  :D
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Every new service has its nay sayers. People were hesitant to move away from writing checks for fear that their bank account would get raided. Now no one writes checks unless you have to. Caravana and others are changing the car buying process, one of these streamlined home selling services will end up getting enough traction to become more mainstream.

Irvine would actually be a good place where a service like this would work well because it’s very desirable and it kind of sells itself.

The question I would have for Rex which is a little unclear is how they reach a similar size audience with their marketing. Can they market the home on Zillow?

Change is good for everyone and you have to keep evolving if you want to stay ahead of the pack.  Just like that saying goes..."innovate or die"
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Sports / Re: world cup 2018
« Last post by USCTrojanCPA on Today at 12:53:57 PM »
I can’t believe no one on TI is talking about Mexico’s shocking upset win over Germany.

I don't know...I know people were down on Mexico and high on Germany but it's one game...anything can happen. 

Brazil looked like they were sleep walking in the 2nd half.  I think this world cup will be wide open.  My dad said that France and Belgium didn't look that good either.  We'll see what happens when we get to the 2nd stage.
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Hmm...bought for $727K three years ago and up for sale for only $800K. After subtracting your fees (most reasonable in the business) not sure the ROI would be Belly approved : ) Oh wait, I forgot, usually you sell them for more than list!

The side yard with the zero lot line seems much bigger than what I saw at Barcelona a few days ago. Looks move-in ready so I'm sure it will sell quickly - you know the normal!

Sold for $706K in 2005 close to the peak - $94K appreciation in 13 years. Goes to show timing is everything!

The home is currently vacant so time is money for the seller hence the "attractive" $800k listing price to get things moving quickly. My #1 goal is to maximize the ROI for the seller. ;)
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Every new service has its nay sayers. People were hesitant to move away from writing checks for fear that their bank account would get raided. Now no one writes checks unless you have to. Caravana and others are changing the car buying process, one of these streamlined home selling services will end up getting enough traction to become more mainstream.

Irvine would actually be a good place where a service like this would work well because it’s very desirable and it kind of sells itself.

The question I would have for Rex which is a little unclear is how they reach a similar size audience with their marketing. Can they market the home on Zillow?
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In Austrian accent: "Come with me if you want a lower commission!"
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Irvine Real Estate / Re: Delano at Eastwood
« Last post by USCTrojanCPA on Today at 12:14:37 PM »
If people are still buying, then does that constitute evidence that a) price hasn't hit peak and/or b) people are still emotionally-driven.

Let's try to determine why it's still selling. I think that's the million dollar baffling question we all want to know right. How is Brookfield getting away with this?




One reason is due to the lack of resale inventory in the <$1m market, especially newer properties (built after 2010) in Irvine.
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