Author Topic: Irvine Foreclosure Data  (Read 7135 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1893
  • -Received: 3391
  • Posts: 18806
  • 3CWG
Irvine Foreclosure Data
« on: July 19, 2012, 04:57:40 PM »
So while going through Redfin's forums I found out that ForeclosureRadar.com gives you chart pr0n for free:

http://www.foreclosureradar.com/california/orange-county/irvine-foreclosures

One of the charts that stuck out to me was this:



While the June numbers show almost 800 homes in some stage of foreclosure... it also shows 147 that are REO. Compare that to Irvine's current inventory of about 440... it becomes interesting.

Why? Because I can't find 147 REOs on Redfin (I only found 6).  EDIT: Actually... thanks to USCTrojan, it looks like the number of REOs on the MLS  is about 26... much higher than 6 but not 147... so still a significant number.

And let's talk about that 800 number... this chart is also very interesting:



492 days is the time it takes to foreclose? Over a year? And the banks take twice as long to resell a property than a 3rd party (265 to 126)?

Maybe there won't be a shadow inventory tsunami... but there are definitely homes that aren't being paid for and we aren't able to buy.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2012, 09:36:36 AM by irvinehomeowner »
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
www.loansbyjw.com

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline ps9

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 463
  • -Received: 1191
  • Posts: 7327
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2012, 05:08:50 PM »
Another way to locate these "shadow inventory" is to check the property tax info online.  If delinquent/in default, more then likely it is a NOD

Offline Nous

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 17
  • -Received: 23
  • Posts: 177
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2012, 06:32:17 PM »
So how does this play out?  I would think that if there are still a lot of homes in the back log for sale that prices shouldn't go up a whole lot.  This is a virtual shortage to jack prices, wonder if it'll work.

Offline zovall

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 414
  • -Received: 144
  • Posts: 613
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2012, 09:02:32 AM »
Great find and analysis!  Only 6 out of 147 are listed?

Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1893
  • -Received: 3391
  • Posts: 18806
  • 3CWG
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2012, 09:25:36 AM »
Great find and analysis!  Only 6 out of 147 are listed?
Only 6 that I could find on Redfin and they all say "Not For Sale" so I don't know how accurate that is.

I don't have access to the MLS so maybe one of the TI realtors can look up how many REOs are actually MLS listed.

EDIT: Actually... now that I think about it... my 6 number might be misleading. From what I remember, Redfin does list REOs but doesn't usually classify them as 'Foreclosed Homes' because Redfin is listing them as normal MLS homes and Redfin doesn't have a search filter for it other than looking at the actual listing details and looking at the Listing Information section for "Special Conditions: Real Estate Owned".
« Last Edit: July 20, 2012, 09:33:54 AM by irvinehomeowner »
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
www.loansbyjw.com

Online USCTrojanCPA

  • Realtor aka Realty King
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1823
  • -Received: 1428
  • Posts: 7464
  • Gender: Male
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2012, 09:30:38 AM »
Great find and analysis!  Only 6 out of 147 are listed?
Only 6 that I could find on Redfin and they all say "Not For Sale" so I don't know how accurate that is.

I don't have access to the MLS so maybe one of the TI realtors can look up how many REOs are actually MLS listed.
Here's what MLS has to say:

5 active REOs
21 REOs in back-up offer/pending status
1 REO in HOLD DO NOT SHOW status
Martin Mania
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1893
  • -Received: 3391
  • Posts: 18806
  • 3CWG
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2012, 03:45:15 PM »
I remember back in the IHB days... everyone made a big deal of shadow inventory and there were people on both sides arguing whether or not it existed. Some of the argument were based on the definition of shadow inventory and while it's obvious that we may not ever see that flood of foreclosed/REO homes hit the market, doesn't it perturb anyone that the banks are just sitting on these properties and not putting them out there for us to buy?

Take for example this one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Blackbird-92618/home/4746443

This was foreclosed on end of April 2010. It was listed numerous times starting May 4, 2010 and I even saw it last year where the realtor kept telling me how it's an REO. Over two years later, it's no longer on the market and just sitting there... who do you think is paying for it?

And this doesn't take into account all the homes that are in preforeclosure, no one is paying for and the banks are not moving on. No wonder people are strategically defaulting... they can save tens of thousands by living rent free for a few years.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
www.loansbyjw.com

Offline flipper

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 5
  • -Received: 13
  • Posts: 51
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2012, 05:46:46 PM »
I remember back in the IHB days... everyone made a big deal of shadow inventory and there were people on both sides arguing whether or not it existed. Some of the argument were based on the definition of shadow inventory and while it's obvious that we may not ever see that flood of foreclosed/REO homes hit the market, doesn't it perturb anyone that the banks are just sitting on these properties and not putting them out there for us to buy?

Take for example this one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Blackbird-92618/home/4746443

This was foreclosed on end of April 2010. It was listed numerous times starting May 4, 2010 and I even saw it last year where the realtor kept telling me how it's an REO. Over two years later, it's no longer on the market and just sitting there... who do you think is paying for it?

And this doesn't take into account all the homes that are in preforeclosure, no one is paying for and the banks are not moving on. No wonder people are strategically defaulting... they can save tens of thousands by living rent free for a few years.

8 Blackbird is kind of special. It was second lien foreclosure. The loan was held by a small mortgage company. The mortgage company is not willing to take losses. It seems the house is rented out and the company is waiting for the price to recover.

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Online USCTrojanCPA

  • Realtor aka Realty King
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1823
  • -Received: 1428
  • Posts: 7464
  • Gender: Male
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2012, 06:12:15 PM »
I remember back in the IHB days... everyone made a big deal of shadow inventory and there were people on both sides arguing whether or not it existed. Some of the argument were based on the definition of shadow inventory and while it's obvious that we may not ever see that flood of foreclosed/REO homes hit the market, doesn't it perturb anyone that the banks are just sitting on these properties and not putting them out there for us to buy?

Take for example this one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Blackbird-92618/home/4746443

This was foreclosed on end of April 2010. It was listed numerous times starting May 4, 2010 and I even saw it last year where the realtor kept telling me how it's an REO. Over two years later, it's no longer on the market and just sitting there... who do you think is paying for it?

And this doesn't take into account all the homes that are in preforeclosure, no one is paying for and the banks are not moving on. No wonder people are strategically defaulting... they can save tens of thousands by living rent free for a few years.

8 Blackbird is kind of special. It was second lien foreclosure. The loan was held by a small mortgage company. The mortgage company is not willing to take losses. It seems the house is rented out and the company is waiting for the price to recover.
They will be waiting a long, long time.  Hope they enjoy being a landlord for a while. 
Martin Mania
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline waitin4ever

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 32
  • -Received: 35
  • Posts: 221
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2012, 06:14:02 PM »
So it seems to me that Larry was indeed right about the homes in some form of foreclosure and being a shadow inventory. I guess he was also right about not knowing when or if at all these so called shadow inventory homes ever show up in the market. I guess he made his original predictions based on these homes hitting the market soon. Probably he never anticipated the bottom less interest rate hole and manipulation by banks/govt.

It may actually take 10+ years for all the glut to clear itself.


I remember back in the IHB days... everyone made a big deal of shadow inventory and there were people on both sides arguing whether or not it existed. Some of the argument were based on the definition of shadow inventory and while it's obvious that we may not ever see that flood of foreclosed/REO homes hit the market, doesn't it perturb anyone that the banks are just sitting on these properties and not putting them out there for us to buy?

Take for example this one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Blackbird-92618/home/4746443

This was foreclosed on end of April 2010. It was listed numerous times starting May 4, 2010 and I even saw it last year where the realtor kept telling me how it's an REO. Over two years later, it's no longer on the market and just sitting there... who do you think is paying for it?

And this doesn't take into account all the homes that are in preforeclosure, no one is paying for and the banks are not moving on. No wonder people are strategically defaulting... they can save tens of thousands by living rent free for a few years.

Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1893
  • -Received: 3391
  • Posts: 18806
  • 3CWG
Re: Irvine Foreclosure Data
« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2014, 12:38:36 PM »
The Walking Foreclosures....

The problem with linking directly to another site is if they update the graph, the original one goes away and the post looks out of context.

Additionally, ForeclosureRadar for Cali has changed to PropertyRadar. So the link above has changed to this:

http://www.propertyradar.com/trends/california/orange-county/irvine

If you look at the different charts there, foreclosures have gone way down.

And one weird data point is in Oct of 2013, there was a huge spike of preforeclosures (over 700) and then that number disappeared and didn't translate into foreclosures or REOs. Was everyone waiting for Halloween to pay their mortgage?

If you look at the time to sell chart, back when I posted this in 2012, I thought 492 days was a long time, it's now almost triple that, 1349 days for a bank to sell.

What they hizzy is going on here?
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
www.loansbyjw.com

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Related Links

Recent Posts